Monday, December 31, 2012

The Morning After: Redskins 28, Cowboys 18 (8-8)



That is how another Cowboys season ends.  That is how 2012, like so many years before it, ends.  A season that had plenty of things to like and plenty of things to not like, ends in tears on the final day of the season.

Haven't we been here before?  Several times?

But, for some reason, this one feels a bit different to me than 2011.  In 2011, I thought the Cowboys were overwhelmed by the New York Giants in the final game of the season because of the simple mismatch problems that they had no answer for.  There was no strategy or posture that was going to allow that Cowboys OL to handle the DL of the Giants.  It just wasn't happening.  And Terence Newman to stick with Victor Cruz?  That wasn't happening either.

But, this one, despite the familiar result, seemed a much different style of loss.  To me, especially from an offensive standpoint, this one felt like the Cowboys suffered the most disappointing of failures on the field at the home of their hated rivals.  This one felt like a self-inflicted defeat, full of wasted opportunities and poor execution.

Sure, the Redskins blitzed at every opportunity.  In fact, for the game, they blitzed in 25 of 39 passing scenarios and 24 of 34 when the Cowboys were in shotgun.  They blitzed and blitzed.  And on 2nd down, Jim Haslett sent pressure on 8 of 11 passes, and on 3rd Down it was 10 out of 12.  They dared the Cowboys to beat them, and the Cowboys did not.

Now, when a team blitzes that often, they are telling you two things.  1) they are saying that they think you do not handle pressure very well and if they speed up your situations and hit you a bit, you will perform at a lower level than if they allow you to get comfortable.  But, don't forget what they are also saying, 2) they are suggesting that they don't think they can get pressure any other way.  With Brian Orakpo on injured reserve, the Redskins are a team that is not loaded with pass rushing excellence.  If they just send 4, they likely do not get sacks.  So, they add players to the rush which subtracts players from coverage.

And you must make them pay.

That is why this offensive performance must be positioned as nothing short of a failure.  The job, in particular by Tony Romo - the man who is most responsible for the Cowboys being in this position to begin with - was just not nearly at the level it needed to be to win a tough divisional road game on the final night of the season.

Romo, as I am sure you are well aware, picked a horrendous time for his 4th multi-interception game of 2012.  In those 4 games, as you might imagine, the Cowboys were winless.  The first 3 were home games against the Bears, Giants, and these same Redskins, but this one had all of the trimmings of a playoff game and the picks were all damaging and key.

But, no interception of Romo's career might hurt as much as the last one of 2012.  For that was a pick that comes down to that moment that everyone dreams when they discuss the credentials of their favorite QB.  They always ask the question, "can this guy get your team down the field on that one drive with everything on the line?"

There it was. 3:35 to play in the game, down 21-18.  A quick 14 yard gainer to Witten down the middle  gave the Cowboys breathing room out to their own 29.  And on 1st and 10 from their own 29, they hurried to the line with shotgun again with 3:06 to go.

The Redskins bring tons of pressure all game and that particular blitz was seen on several occasions.  In fairness to Romo, if he can get the ball over the top of Rob Jackson, the right outside linebacker who starts toward Romo and then peels off to stay with Murray, then Murray will have the ability to run a long, long ways.  The Redskins are defending with recklessness and despite their success, if the Cowboys can break one play on this final drive, they can win the game and the NFC East.

But, because of the pressure, Romo is back-pedaling.  This will not allow him to measure his throw with any amount of precision.  And because he is off balance, his lofted throw is short and Jackson is able to recover and and attack the ball, securing it for the biggest play of his career.

There are a number of problems with this decision from your QB, with the most obvious one being that it is 1st Down.  You cannot likely survive a sack, but this is where you either see Witten open over the blitz or you throw the ball into the sideline.  You cannot make a risky throw on 1st Down with everything on the line.  And you also cannot excuse him because of some Jim Haslett ambush call.  That blitz was as predictable as could be after seeing his calls for 57 minutes already.  Romo just got it wrong at the most inopportune time - possibly of his career.

And this is where the Cowboys' QB is again; In a place where he will unfortunately have to serve as a piƱata for the next several months as people who barely watched him will latch on to the easy narrative rather than considering a very strong season running an offense that made him over-come obstacle after obstacle all year long.  He is good enough to carry a team for months at a time, so how come he isn't good enough to perform at an efficient level in this one-game scenario last night against an equally-battered team?

I will continue to say that the Quarterback is not holding this franchise back - not at any level.  But, that doesn't mean that he didn't let them down last night.  In fact, this was a spot where we knew that they needed their best players to be their best players, and as much as I appreciate the challenges he has to deal with, he simply had to do better than he did with his opportunities on this Sunday night.

Let me define that:  Did you know the Cowboys had the ball in Washington territory on 8 of their first 9 possessions last night?

8 times on the Washington end of the field in their first 9 possessions (they only had 11 - the 10th possession was the interception to Jackson and the 11th possession was the garbage time sequence with 1 minute left) only resulted in 3 scores.  3 others ended in punts from plus territory and then, of course, the 2 interceptions that both ended drives early.

And that is the real killer.  The running game was working.  The play calling was balanced.  Honestly, the game-plan was rather sound and the offensive line was playing at a reasonably decent level.  And that is why you sit here today and feel that the Cowboys should have been able to win that game, despite not having any real ability to stop the Redskins rushing attack.

But, in the end, they lost because they took a -3 in their biggest game of the year.  With 116 games in Cowboys history in which they were a -3 in turnover differential, the Cowboys record falls to a 10-104-2 record.  And in the Romo-era?  Well, the record is now 1-15.  In other words, you don't win games when you turn the ball over that much.

Some years, the conversation is much wider and more nuanced about what went wrong.  In 2008, the team was just not together when they went to Philadelphia.  They had a divided locker-room and needed to make changes.  In 2011, they ran into a better team in the final game.

But, last night, with Robert Griffin unable to do anything more than limp-jog, a defense that could not get pressure without blitzing, and an offense that hardly completed a pass down the field all night long, I am hard-pressed to say they ran into a better team.

I think that was a winnable game that had a lot of variables fall the Cowboys way with big special teams plays, a missed field goal, and even a timely late game sack (Anthony Spencer again) that gave the Cowboys a chance to over-come everything that went wrong to that point.

They had the ball and were only down 3.  They had all kinds of time and a kicker who certainly seemed able to get you to overtime if you just completed a few more passes.  And that is why I am choosing to make this column about a guy that I have spent a lot of time appreciating over the years.  This one is squarely on Tony Romo for picking a really poor time to make his worst throw of the season at precisely a moment in which he could not make that throw.

That is how his position is judged.  All of the fantasy football numbers do not matter, it seems.  When you melt away the numbers and games that do not stick, most players are remembered for a few plays made at high-leveraged moments when we are all watching.

One of those happened last night for Tony.  And that is why he will continue to be a polarizing topic, just as he has been since 2007 when he went from being an underdog to a national celebrity in a matter of months.

He is a heck of a player and I would wonder what the 2012 Cowboys record would have been with Jon Kitna or Kyle Orton at the helm (5-11?), but the truth is that last night was a game that was there to be won and it ended just like the others - with an apologetic Romo at the podium talking about what went wrong and how this will test his team's resolve as they look to next season.

The Cowboys will likely grant him a massive contract extension this off-season because unlike most of their fans, they do recognize that however unfortunate that moment was last night, you still need to hang on to a really good QB until you have a better idea.  And for every QB you would happily trade Romo for (Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Brees), there are way more that you would not want to see replace him.

He is what he is.  Which most weeks is quite solid.  And that is why the Cowboys simply must improve their squad to a point where they can win a game in which he doesn't play at his very best.  This year they set records for their inability to run the football and they lined up one of the worst offensive lines in club history.  They also were exposed for not having enough depth or quality on either the offensive or defensive line.

All of that must improve.

And yet, with a defense that in no way resembled the defense that they left training camp with, they were once again playing for a division title with 3 minutes to play in the season.

So, do you fire and trade everyone - including your quarterback?

No.  I am guessing you get to work on building a team that does not have to rely on Romo to get them everywhere they arrive.  Because at this point, we seem to have a pretty good idea that that can only take them so far.  Like most NFL teams, the Cowboys do not have a QB who can drag the rest of the club all the way to the Super Bowl.

Nobody wants to hear that right now.  Romo had the season in his hands last night and he threw it to the other team.

8-8 in 2012 follows 8-8 in 2011.  And .500 football goes all the way back to pretty much the last championship parade in early 1996.

And as the Washington Redskins are celebrating what they believe is the start of a long-term football revival built around a Texas kid under center, the agony of defeat ends another year of Dallas Cowboys football.


Saturday, December 29, 2012

2012 BaD Radio Podcasts



1/6/2012 - Episode #141

We review Dick Clark's Final New Years Eve and driving home after the Stars NYE game, Lamar Odom's Obsession with Candy, Dan Loses our Football Picks Bet and Dan's Suit, Donovan's Ticket after Rolls Thru Stop Sign Hate Crimes, Screenless


1/13/2012 - Episode #142

The Tim Tebow suit bet, plenty of talk about the NFL Playoffs, a brief review on "Hell on Wheels" and Bob's book about the Mavericks championship, "This Year Is Different".


1/20/2012 - Episode #143

HSO's on Yu Darvish, the Rangers Signing of Yu Darvish, Called Green Bay and Brett Favre Steakhouse after Packers Playoff Loss, Bob Reports - documentary Catfish (deceptive on-line romances and we discover Catfish is a hoax)


1/27/2012 - Episode #144

First Podcast from the new Victory Studios: Movie Review - Blue Chips, Cuban Rips The Ticket for their Lamar Odom HSOs and we interview Mark Cuban, Dan's Stump the Sturm


Feb 3, 2012 - Episode #145

Super Bowl 46 - missing   BaD Radio at The Super Bowl in Indianapolis: Dan goes Wireless on Radio Row, we talk to Vanilla Ice (Robbie Van Winkle) with George, Media Day with Sterling Moore


2/9/2012  -  Episode #146

We get ready for the Rangers 2012 Spring Training with Jon Daniels (talk Yu Darvish and Josh Hamilton), Terrell Owens says he's now broke, and it's the First Word that Deion Sanders and wife Pilar are Fighting from friend Laura talking to K104, Bob's Game - Name that Movie


2/16/2012 - Episode #147

Bob says Franchise Cowboys LB Anthony Spencer, Bob goes to Chuckie Cheese for Valentines Day with the Family, Donovan Salutes Michael Jordan on his Birthday, Donovan hosts Ticket Pyramid


2/23/2012 - Episode #148 

Bob pulls a Hamstring Running on the Treadmill, Dan reviews Khloe and Lamar - Sex Swing episode, Dan Reports - Words with Friends and Alec Baldwin Trouble on Flight, Tom Friday Bit - Survey of the Staff About the Ticket Hosts


3/2/2012  -  Episode #149

Bob's World - Coaching Youth Soccer Crying Kid, Lamar Odom Flakes Out and Misses Games, Khloe Talks about Living in Dallas, TC Witnesses Cuban & Odom Meeting at W Hotel Lobby, Lamar Odom sent to the D-League, Dan's Birthday Guest - World B Free, Bob Quizes Dan on his History with the Show


3/9/12 - Episode #150

Tony Stewart at the TMS Media Day, Bob Loves Walking Dead Zombie but Not Sure Why, Deion Sanders Divorce Talk - living in same house, and Dan's Gameshow - Baseball Jeopardy with Mike Rhyner


3/17/2012 - Episode #151

Jason Terry says He's Playing for Next Year, Stars Road Trip - Minneapolis and Winnipeg with Mike Ribeiro, We talk to Ralph Strangis and his Father, The Show Pranks Tom into Wearing a Suit, Donovan's Behind the Drop - Bob's I'm Not the Guy in the Next Cubicle and Bob gets into it with Daryl Razor Reaugh,


3/24/2012 - Episode #152

Peyton Manning Traded to Denver and Tim Tebow to the NY Jets, Dan confronts an AAC Usher, Stars Trevor Daley & Steve Ott, Tom's Homeless vs Away with Laker Metta World Peace and Phoenix Coyote Paul Bissonnette



3/31/2012 - Episode #153

Our Annual sit down with Dirk Nowitzki, we talk to Mr. Ranger - Michael Young, it's Pictures in Blue Bonnets time again, and the amazing story of Antoine Walker's bankruptcy




4/7/2012 - Episode #154 

Khloe & Lamar traded to Dallas, We talk about Grubes Leaving for College, Farewell to Grubes Songs, Dan's Friday Bit - Stump the Sturm episode

4/14/2012 - Episode #155

NFL Draft HSOs from the crew and Pat Kirwan, Bob's Radio Friend from his Lynchburg Days, the Arkansas Bobby Petrino Rally and it's the Days of Thunder Movie Review

4/21/2012 - Episode #156

Bad Radio Lost Podcast #156 from April 20, 2012:  talks truancy court and play a little Gay or not Gay. Bob talk to a high school on career day. They play some Felix Jones and Anthony Andro audio. Finally they talk about Extreme skiing and play some Khloe and Lamar Show audio. 


4/28/2012 - Episode #157

 Jason Terry in-studio, Bob talks to a Racist English Soccer Fan, Bob & Friend Fart all over London
 

5/5/2012 - Episode #158

How the Mavericks miss Tyson Chandler vs OKC in the Playoffs, Tom's Cumulus Song in the Sales Office, Dan vs Ducks in his Backyard, Bob's Jack the Ripper Tour in London, Muser Campout Fun w Gordo (Where the Sun Rises and Surviving the Game talk) and Poor Effort from the Mavericks and Dirk in Game 3 vs OKC


5/12/2012 - Podcast #159

Mavs get swept by OKC in  the first round of the playoffs, Josh Hamilton hits 4 home runs in one game. Bad Radio Reports The story of the American Airlines lifetime passes, Morris Claiborne starts a twitter war after people criticize him for making a 4 on the wonderlic, finally The sports movie of the month Major League

5/18/12 - Podcast #160

 Rangers talk with CJ Wilson returning to Arlington and Josh Hamilton’s huge contract year run. Also, Bad radio reports on the documentary “Uprising: Hip Hop and the Rodney King Riots”. Homer call extra and BaD Radio sits down with Mad Men’s Pete Campbell.

5/25/12 - Podcast #161

Bad Radio talks to Hank Haney, Pitbull, and play SNL Audio. Donovan reviews the original Star Wars trilogy. They have some Allen Iverson talk. Tom has a Friday game show called "Name the Foreigner". Bob talks Turtle-man. Finally the 2012 GBL Draft and Bet Payoff discussion 

6/2/2012 - Episode #162

This week on the podcast we have Rangers talk with the recent signing of Roy Oswalt. Guest Booking League interviews with Ace Cash Express girl Jenna Liston, and Call of The Wildman star Ernie Brown Jr. aka Turtleman. Also child entitlement/ice cream talk with the BaD Radio boys and UFC fighter Johnny Hendricks drops by the studio.


6/9/2012 - Episode #163

The BaD Radio boys talk to Donovan's guest for the GBL, comedian John Witherspoon. The interns have lunch run troubles. Channel 8 reporter Brett Shipp stops by. NBA playoff talk and whether OKC will rule the NBA world for the next few years. Also, Tom gets a liner from the great Hulk Hogan.


6/16/2012 - Episode #164

Welcome back P1's. This week on the podcast local musician Ben Kweller join us as part of the Guest Booking League. Bob talks Cowboys vs. the NFC East. BaD Radio gets into some playoff talk about Lebron and the Miami Heat. They continue their review of classic sports movies with this weeks review on Rocky, and Nitro from American Gladiators joins the boys at the 2012 Sneaky Pete's Summer Bash! Also, a look into the past and how BaD Radio got their little feet wet as part of the little Ticket.
 

6/23/2012 - Episode #165

This week on the podcast Dallas Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle stops by the studio. Guest Booking League continues to shine with another great guest. This time it's John C. McGinley, from such movies as Office Space and Any Given Sunday. BaD Radio talks with Texas Rangers HOF Tom Grieve once again. Jake Kemp gets lucky and attends the Dave Chappelle show at House of Blues. BaD radio looks back at songs performed at Summerbash. And to close things out, the always important Big Foot talk.


6/30/2012 - Episode #166

 BaD radio gives us some great interviews this week with legendary rock drummer Vinnie Paul, and one of the greatest villains of all time Billy Zabka, aka Johnny Lawrence from The Karate Kid. We also have NBA Draft talk with Doocy and Donovan. Ranger Talk with the Sturminator, and the Dallas Stars make a roster splash this offseason.


7/7/2012 -  Episode #167

 Hey P1's welcome to another edition of the podcast. The Great Donovan, Rich Phillips and Mark Followill are sitting in for the BaD Radio boys this week, but we still have great bits and segments for you! We have the Tom Grieve Show with Tom Grieve, Donovan quizzes everyone on the happenings at the BET Awards, Bob Sturm calls in to talk about the Steve Ott trade, we find out with is Gay or Not Gay and Followill gives us a breakdown of the Mavericks future.


7/14/2012 - Episode #168

This week on the BaD Radio Podcast Jimmie J.J. Walker from Good Times stops by as part of the Guest Booking League. Cowboys tight end John Phillips joins the gang to talk a little Cowboy football. We also have a great bit by Dan with the sound-a-likes. BaD radio talks some Penn State and our old pal and former Dallas Star Steve Ott calls in.


7/21/2012 - Episode #169

We have a very guest intensive podcast this week P1's. Rangers manager Ron Washington joins us. Newest Dallas Maverick Chris Kaman joins the BaD Radio boys to talk the next Mavericks season. The great Donovan provides us with the dangers behind using the drug PCP. And arguably the greatest Dallas Star ever, Mike Modano joins us to talk a little Stars hockey.


7/28/2012 - Episode #170

Welcome back P1's, we knew you couldn't get enough. Newest Dallas Maverick Elton Brand joins BaD Radio. Mr. Dan calls in from vacation time to join Bob and Donovan for a little Breaking Bad talk. Guns N' Roses hit 25 years with their album Appetite for Destruction, and we have some HSO's from The Ticket guys. Penn State has the hammer dropped on them and we have some reaction to their ongoing problems. And the end of an era is here, Tom Grieve talks Rangers and the end of Cookie Talk.


8/4/2012 - Episode #171

Here is the next edition of the podcast. This week we hadCowboys linebacker Anthony Spencer stop by for a little football talk, Adam Richman from the TV show Man v. Food joined us as part of the Guest Booking League. BaD radio tries to uncover the Norm E-brake mischief and Dan talks to Cowboys defensive back C.J. Wilson. We have Bob’s Fun Friday bit, and his key playerfor the Cowboys upcoming season. And last but not least, we mixed in a little Ranger talk as well.
 

8/11/2012 - Episode #172

This is week two of Cowboys Camp in Oxnard with Jason Witten, Victor Butler, Bob's Pro Athlete Front Running Theory, Donovan's 41st Birthday Surprise Guest - Spinderella from Salt n Pepa, Dirty Cowboys Liners, Tom Grieve and The Hitlers Shout-Out and Venice Beach audio including the Reggae Childrens Songs Singer, Romo Question Guy, 2012 Presidential Election HSOs and the Buy a Homeless Bum's Sign Guy


8/18/2012 - Episode #173

Back again boys and girls with another great week of sports segments from BaD Radio. Lots of football and Cowboys talk with sound from Jerry Jones, Rob Ryan and a little dip into Hard Knocks. We also found out whether you have been acting Gay or Not Gay. The Great Donovan brings us another edition of BaD Radio Reports, and we close things out with some Breaking Bad talk. Enjoy!


8/25/2012 - Episode #174

Another edition of the podcast is here! This week we have a recap of Ticket Fight Night just in case any of you P1's missed it. Steve Busby brings us his version of "Strike one to Austin Jackson." Mavericks owner Mark Cuban stops by in studio and talks everything Mavs. And last but not least, BaD Radio Reports takes a look at the marching band hazing incident.


9/1/2012 - Episode #175

We have a good one for you this week P1's. Some great guests this week including Rangers General Manager Jon Daniels and former Cowboys Head Coach Jimmy Johnson. Another edition of Breaking Bad talk. Jake Kemp takes over the spotlight on another edition of BaD Radio Reports, and to close things out, we have lots of Cowboys audio including the Mickey Spagnola E-brake.


9/8/2012 - Episode #176

Good guests this week P1's! Yeardley Smith, the voice if Lisa Simpson, joined BaD Radio and we also had former host of The Man Show Adam Carolla call in. And if that wasn't enough, Homer Call has returned! We also have NFL Picks and a look back at the great Cowboy win against the Giants.


9/15/2012 - Episode #177

Newest Dallas Maverick O.J. Mayo joins BaD Radio in studio. We have Bob mixing in a little hockey talk over the collective bargaining agreement that's about to expire. Homer Call of the Week makes a return for a second week in a row, and the legendary Geraldo Rivera joins BaD Radio on a star-studded week at the little Ticket.
 

9/22/2012 - Episode #178

Great bits this week P1's! The Great Donovan goes Behind The Drop with one of Dan's infamous arguments and stop-down moments. Audio fun with Homer Call Of The Week. Batman and Robin make their guest appearance all week on BaD Radio. Jason Witten oddly enough joins us for the Jason Witten Show. And lastly, Bob tries to break apart some high school culture in this great state of Texas!


9/29/2012 - Episode #179

Welcome back you Ticket loving P1’s. We have another great edition of Homer Call of the Week and of course The Jason Witten Show. The Great Donovan has an interesting trivia game to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the T.V. show Martin. And The Sturminator goes on a rant for those ungrateful Cowboy fans who didn’t appreciate their latest win against the Bucs


10/6/2012 - Episode #180

Donovan visits with Giancarlo Esposito - Gus Fring from Breaking Bad, Stephen Tobolowsky is in studio, the Rangers collapse to end 2012, Norm audio as he twist off again after the Cowboys-Bears.


10/13/2012 - Episode #181

Josh Hamilton and the slippery slope of religion and the media, Tom Grieve closes out the disappointing end to the Rangers season, Comedian Paul Scheer is on the show, and a full and complete review of Point Break.


10/20/2012 - Episode #182

Red hot Cowboys talk as Bob reconsiders his Jason Garrett approval, Ed Belfour in studio, Donovan loses a hero with the death of Big Tex, Twiggy is tired of that white girl, and more...


10/27/2012 - Episode #183

  An admission of enjoying gay songs, Prank on TC, Cowboys win in Carolina, Moose Johnston is in studio, and we debate Lion versus Bear.


11/3/2012 - Episode #184

  Danica Patrick at SMU luncheon, Tony Romo talk after the Giants game, Halloween talk, Gay not Gay, and Richard Lewis attacks our studio.


11/10/2012 - Episode #185

Cowboys at Atlanta, Darren Collison in studio, Gay Not Gay, reviewing the Jimmy Johnson episode of "a Football Life", and the Jason Witten Show.


11/17/2012 - Episode #186

 Cowboys beats the Eagles, After the election, Texas wants to secede, More Jason Witten, and the return of Bob's Twitter Game.


11/24/2012 - Episode #187

 Cowboys vs Redskins Thanksgiving talk, the great divorce debate of 2012, a bounty of lunchpails, Kelly Clarkson sings to the Cowboys.


12/1/2012 - Episode #188

 Cowboys sign Brady Poppinga and he has fun audio, Jim Mora Jr Audio, NFL Network Pregame Show and Michael Irvin Audio, Tom has a game show, and Ben Gold.


12/8/2012 - Episode #189

Cowboys talk at Eagles, Rangers offseason talk, White Elephant Christmas stuff, and the annual Christmas Song contest.


12/15/2012 - Episode #190

 BaD reacts to the Josh Brent/Jerry Brown accident, Bob fights on Twitter, Josh Hamilton leaves for Anaheim, and Michael Young leaves for Philadelphia, Jake taken to task by the Hardline, Movie Review of Rudy, and audio Christmas gifts to the P1s.


12/29/2012 - Episode #191

Dez Bryant talk, NFL MVP Breakdown, and the annual Air Jordans for Christmas Report.



Splash Plays - Week 15 - New Orleans

What a truly bizarre game to consider - this late season loss to the Saints - which in retrospect, as far at the NFC East Divisional title had no bearing or significance whatsoever.

Normally, you are able to read about the splash plays on Wednesday, but because of the above fact of insignificance, travel, holidays, and family, I have delayed getting to this study until a few days later.  That has allowed me to consider the opinions of others when trying to summarize this game, and as usual, I have a hard time with some of them that I have observed.

Basically, the summary appears to be "what can we expect of the defense given the many injuries?"  That, of course, is spot-on in many regards, as they are a rag-tag bunch that does not resemble anything close to the squad that left training camp.  But since they will not cancel nor postpone the games, we still have to expect the Cowboys to offer some resistance on defense, and any resistance that we saw on Sunday against the Saints (what must go down as one of the best single-season offenses to not sniff the playoffs) was truly minimal.

They could not get off of the field until points were being added to the Saints totals, as there was seldom a stop any other way.  Third down defense was a struggle as Drew Brees and his offense could move the chains at will.  Even with a few blatant drops, they still converted 11 3rd Downs into a fresh set of downs and dominated time of possession.

The Cowboys conceded 91 offensive snaps which was the highest play count of 2012 by 21 plays!  The previous high was 70 snaps by Cleveland a month ago.  91 was the highest conceded by the Cowboys going all the way back to Tom Landry, and you can believe that it likely goes back to the inception of the franchise.

The 562 yards the Saints put up were not the most conceded all-time by a Cowboys defense, but it was the most since the Houston Oilers ran up 583 yards in 1991.  Before that, the Bengals had destroyed the Cowboys for 570 in 1985, but that is it.  The next highest yardage total this season was 453 by the Falcons.

And worst of all, the Cowboys had zero takeaways or sacks.  Zero.  That makes it the only game this season in which the Cowboys did not get to the Quarterback and the 4th game this season where the Cowboys defense had no takeaways.  The 4 games, against the Seahawks, Ravens, Falcons, and now, Saints were all losses.  That, of course, means that in games in which the Cowboys get at least 1 takeaway from their defense, they have a 8-3 record.  Whoa.

So, to consider all of these facts about that game on Sunday and then to observe plaudits being given to the defense tells you of the dire straights they are surely existing in these days.  If I would have told Rob Ryan in August that in a key December game against one of the NFL's best offenses that he would have a guy named Eric Frampton playing 52 snaps, Charlie Peprah 46, Sterling Moore 29, Brady Poppinga 25, and Michael Coe 17, then he might not mind that Dan Connor was out there for 66 snaps or Alex Albright for over 50.

Amazing, what they have had to deal with, and amazing that many of us think that group is capable of winning on Sunday night in Washington.

Brees gave out the blue-print for Robert Griffin - just run verticals with your Wide outs and allow your Running Backs to run for acres underneath against what the Cowboys have left at linebacker - which appears to be Anthony Spencer, a one armed version of DeMarcus Ware, and many other guys who are not real household names around here.

Now, the saving grace for the Cowboys is that Darren Sproles doesn't play in Washington, but we have already seen that they have plenty of things they can do with their prolific offensive display on Thanksgiving being all the proof anyone should need.

Scroll down for the blitzing report - which was an interesting study in trying to figure out a plan.

SPLASH PLAYS

Let's take a look at the "Splash Plays" from Week 15 vs the Saints:

Splash Plays are key impact plays from the defense.  Usually, they are obvious, but there are some that blur the line.  I have listed time and play of each one for those who want to double check my work.

For more, read a detailed explanation of this study here:  What is a Splash Play?


WEEK 14 vs New Orleans

Before we get into this study, I will admit that this is one of those weeks where we have splash plays, but we don't have the big ones.  And when you don't have the big splash plays, then the little ones look unworthy of tracking.  But, I think if we consider the big picture, we know that each play is its own story and we should understand the potential effects of any play made by the defense.  But, clearly, in this instance, we see that takeaways and sacks are vital.

Q-TimeD/D/YdPlayerPlay
1-11:111/10/D30WareStrip
1-6:092/1/O21MooreRun Stuff
1-0:132/1/D18LissemoreRun Stuff
2-15:003/1/D18SpearsRun Stuff
2-10:361/10/O17SpencerHolding Penalty Drawn
2-10:172/27/O7Hatcher Tackle For Loss
2-1:502/2/D24FramptonPass Broken Up
2-1:443/2/D24PoppingaPass Broken Up
2-1:171/G/D2ConnerTackle For Loss
2-0:063/3/D19ClaibornePass Broken Up
3-8:352/5/O46SpencerTackle For Loss
3-8:333/8/O43MoorePass Broken Up
3-4:433/5/O43SensabaughBig Hit Breakup
3-4:161/G/D6ClaibornePass Broken Up
4-6:491/10/D49CarrRun Stuff
4-2:061/10/O25HatcherRun Stuff
5-10:432/9/D34ClaiborneStrip


Here are the season totals through 15 games:

PlayerSplashes
Spencer34
Ware30
Hatcher16.5
Claiborne16
Carter - OUT15
Carr13
Lee - OUT10
Brent - OUT 9.5
VButler8
Ratliff - OUT6
McCray6
Sensabaugh6
Spears6
Scandrick - OUT 5
Crawford5
Lissemore4
Conner3
Jenkins2
Coleman - OUT2
Peprah2
Frampton2
Albright2
Moore2
Lewis - GONE1
Church - OUT1
Schaefering1
Coe1
Poppinga1
Team Total209


===========

BLITZING REPORT

The blitz reports for the Saints are a bit tricky, because we see that over the course of 53 passes, the Cowboys tried everything.  There are many who are frustrated by blitzing 3, but as you can see below, the Saints found 5 explosive plays, but none of them were against a 3 man blitz.  The idea is to keep many bodies behind the ball and then you can corner the mouse (a coaching point about allowing shallow passes and then surrounding the man with the ball) and bring him down.

Conversely, of the 5 big plays, you can see 4 of them were against a blitz that did not get to Brees in time.  Of course, broken tackles don't help either, but when you rush 3 you have 8 back in coverage.  If you bring 5 or 6, that leaves only 5 or 6 back, where a broken tackle can cost you 20 more yards like on the Sproles play late in the 2nd Quarter.

The Cowboys tried everything to try to shake up the Saints.  In the first half they brought pressure on 6 of 30 passes (20%), but in the 2nd, they tried to bring more and more - 9 of 22 passes (41%), but it really didn't make much difference.  Brees was hardly touched all day.

Q-TimeD/D/YdPlayRushers
4-11:503/8/O37Brees to Colston, +605
2-0:471/10/O30Brees to Sproles, +444
5-10:462/9/D33Brees to Colston and Fumble, +315
5-13:331/10/O26Brees to Graham, +265
2-5:351/10/O10Brees to Colston, +215

Below, we usually look at all of the big defensive plays from a blitzing standpoint.  But, since there were 0 big defensive plays on Sunday, this won't take long.


Q-TimeD/D/YdPlayRushers






Pass Rushers Against New Orleans - 52 pass rush/blitz situations:

Pass Rushers1st D2nd D3rd D4th DTotal
3 Rush575017
4 Rush676120
5 Rush435012
6 Rush02103
Totals151917152

And, here are the full season numbers to date:

Pass Rushers1st
D
2nd D3rd
D
4th DTotal
3 Rush21 -
11%
29 - 15%35 - 22%1- 12%86 - 16%
4 Rush119 - 65%111 - 59%81 - 53%5 - 62%316 - 59%
5 Rush37 - 20%42 - 22%29 - 19%2 - 25%110 - 21%
6 Rush5 -
3%
6 -
3%
9 - 6%020 - 4%
Totals1821881548532


The game by game pressure numbers:

Wk 1 - NYG: 11/37 - 30%
Wk 2 - SEA: 10/26 - 38%
Wk 3 - TB: 12/32 - 37%
Wk 4 - CHI: 12/27 - 44%
Wk 5 - BAL: 10/27 - 37%
Wk 6 - CAR: 9/39 - 23%
Wk 7 - NYG: 2/31 - 6%
Wk 8 - ATL: 5/37 - 14%
Wk 9 - PHI: 7/43 - 16%
Wk 10 - CLE: 4/36 - 11%
Wk 11 - WAS 3/30 - 10%
Wk 12 - PHI 6/36 - 16%
Wk 13 - CIN 11/37 - 30%
Wk 14 - PIT 13/42 - 31%
Wk 15 - NO 15/52 - 29%

Totals:  130/532 - 24.4%

You can clearly see that late in the year, the Cowboys have realized they have no choice but to gamble.  They just don't have the personnel to play straight-up defense anymore like they did for a good part of the year.  Against better QBs, they have had to take big risks to have a chance.  And, to their credit, they have been in a position to win all 3 games since they have changed this approach.

But, now, it comes down to playing a Redskins side that is confident and sure of its objectives on offense.

The Cowboys will need a day where their secondary can hold up its end of the bargain and force big drives.  On Thanksgiving, they gave up 2 giants TD strikes from the other end of the field.  They cannot do that on Sunday.  They must cause a turnover or two and make the Redskins drive the field.

If they do that, they can pull off a very unlikely division title.  If not, their season will end like so many others - on the final week, at the stadium of a hated rival that will be taking great delight in your misfortune.

One game for all of the marbles.  This is going to be great fun.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Decoding Garrett - Week 15 - New Orleans


Sunday was a truly bizarre game to analyze for a number of different reasons - not the least of which is that the Cowboys hardly ever got to touch the ball in the first 3 quarters.

The Saints dominated the time of possession and thereby dictated the tempo and the feel of the game.  In the first quarter alone, the Cowboys touched the ball for just 2:57, leaving the 12:03 to the Saints.  In the 4th Quarter, it was another 11:05 for New Orleans and overall a difference 41:59 to 22:28.

One thing the Cowboys did have cooking was the big play to Dez Bryant.  This quick strike kept them in a game in which their defense had to endure an absurd amount of snaps (91) and were surely drained.  But, in the 1st half, the Cowboys connected on 2 long Touchdowns of 58 yards each to Dez that allowed them to stay alive.  That now means that Tony Romo has hit on 3 passes this season of more than 40 yards and all 3 have been to Bryant (with the other happening on Thanksgiving Day).

The Romo to Bryant connection has become the savior of this offense as so much of the rest of the offense has been a roller coaster ride of inefficiency from week to week.  Some weeks, the team cannot rush the ball.  Some weeks, they cannot sustain drives.  Some weeks, they cannot pass protect.  And many weeks, they commit more penalties than they should.

But, from about week 5 on, the Bryant show has been phenomenal.  When the season ends, we will have an in-depth study on which routes and coverages he has been most prolific in, but any observer already knows most of that from simply watching the games.

Unfortunately, this game got away partly because the throw and catch of the 3rd Down slant in the overtime with Dez was stopped by the Saints baiting and then knocking down this play.  This reminds us of the Baltimore game when Bryant was so great but the inability to execute a better slant late in the game led to the long field goal that Dan Bailey missed back in Game #5 of the season so long ago.  As good a day as Romo to Bryant had, if they could have moved the chains one more time in the overtime, chances are good the Saints would have conceded another drive.  But, they got their rare stop, and almost like the late stages of a great NBA game, sometimes, all it takes is one stop to win a game.

And the Saints got one stop on an overtime slant to Bryant - caused a punt - and won the game.

Strategically, it was a familiar scene for the Cowboys offense.  They have run more shotgun this season than ever before under Jason Garrett and have relied on Shotgun 11-Personnel week in and week out to jump start their offense.

The try and try to run a normal offense and ultimately should be congratulated for not scrapping it altogether.  They twist and tweak each week to find the right combination, but then scrap it and find productivity with what amounts to their 2-minute drill.  This puts tons of pressure on Tony Romo to find passes when the defense is not defending the run at all, but he has done a masterful job of getting it done again - while most of the NFL doesn't notice.

Here are the numbers:

Data from Week 15 vs New Orleans:


Run-Pass11-45
Starting Field PositionD 21
1st Down Run-Pass8-18
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go8.10
2nd Down Run-Pass3-16
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go7.72
3rd/4th Down Run-Pass0-11
3rd Down Conversions2-10, 20%

Just about as 1-dimensional as it gets and when they did try to run it, DeMarco Murray fumbled inside his own 10-yard line.  Not only all of this, but Romo had to over-come a fair number of drops, too.

PASSING CHARTS:

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.


1st Half -




2nd Half -  As you can see the volume went way up in the 2nd half and overtime as the Cowboys needed a furious comeback late. 



Here is what a 12 target, 9 catch, 224 day looks like for Dez Bryant.  He has arrived.



Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Wk 1-At New York: 9 Drives - 5 Run/4 Pass
Wk 2-At Seattle: 9 Drives - 3 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Tampa Bay: 13 Drives - 7 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Chicago: 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 5-At Baltimore: 10 Drives - 8 Run/2 Pass
Wk 6-At Carolina 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 7-New York: 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 8-At Atlanta: 9 Drives - 4 Run/5 Pass
Wk 9-At Philadelphia: 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 10-Cleveland: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 11-Washington: 12 Drives - 3 Run/9 Pass
Wk 12-Philadelphia: 8 Drives - 5 Run/3 Pass
Wk 13-Cincinnati: 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-Pittsburgh: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Wk 15-New Orleans: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Season: 162 Drives* 72 Run/90 Pass - 44% Run

* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives (there are 6 so far this year).

2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run



SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated. High Shotgun numbers are not this team's calling card for success.

As you will see below, they are miles beyond the amount of shotgun snaps of 2011.

Wk 1 - at NYG: 15/54 27.7%
Wk 2 - at Sea: 29/56 52%
Wk 3 - TB: 34/63 54%
Wk 4 - Chi: 50/68 74%
Wk 5 - at Balt: 19/79 24%
Wk 6 - at Car: 22/64 34%
Wk 7 - NYG: 48/83 58%
Wk 8 - at Atl:  29/54  54%
Wk 9 - at Phil: 17/54 31%
Wk 10 - Cle: 52/76 68%
Wk 11 - Wash: 62/75 83%
Wk 12 - Phil: 24/62  38%
Wk 13 - Cin: 43/70  61%
Wk 14 - Pit: 35/63  55%
Wk 15 - NO: 42/56 75%

2012 Season Total: 531/977 54%

2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.


Totals by Personnel Groups:



PackagePlays RunYardsRunPass
11140-01-4
123290-03-29
13382-81-0
215693-112-58
22282-80-0
23000-00-0
S01000-00-0
S02000-00-0
S11372934-1233-281
S125340-05-34
Knee000-00-0
Totals5644511-3945-406

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.



Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:


PackagePlaysYardsRunPassFD/TD
11000-00-00/0
12000-00-00/0
13000-00-00/0
21000-00-00/0
22000-00-00/0
23000-00-00/0
S01000-00-00/0
S10000-00-00/0
S1111460-011-462/1
S12000-00-00/0
Totals11460-011-462/1



In a nutshell, the Cowboys nearly stole one on Sunday despite being placed in a difficult spot all day by the Saints.  New Orleans had a number of offensive matchups the battered Cowboys defense had no answers for (which we will further examine tomorrow).

Somehow, Romo kept them alive until over-time, but then they missed one serve and the Saints made them pay (with a fortuitous bounce on a fumble late).

But, now, redemption is Sunday night.  Romo will have a chance to validate his performances this season with his biggest challenge yet in a hostile territory.

And yet, quietly, it seems that he is very much up for this and ready for it with his tight end setting a record and a big-play man wearing 88 on the outside.

The symmetry of huge road divisional wins on NBC primetime to bookend a long season would be a quite fitting way to win a divisional crown, no?

Time will tell us all.

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Splash Plays - Week 14 - Pittsburgh


The Cowboys have had a very odd year with regards to their defense.  So much so that at times you do just look at the personnel available and concede that to judge these players against a normal grading system is just unfair.

Then, you admit that injuries happen all of the league and there are no sympathy cards arriving in the mailbox.  You also see that you are in the middle of a playoff push and you make do with what you have.

Some of the most endearing characteristics of recent Super Bowl Champions is the "next man up" philosophy which basically says that every injury is "just a flesh wound" to the total body of the roster, and therefore, grab a new body and throw him out there.

Of course, we know that this is merely a band-aid and there is a reason that different players get different salaries - because the difference in ability levels between your starter and the free agent off the street that has to replace him in Week 15 is substantial.  Or, at least, you hope it is.

Regardless, the Cowboys have done an admirable job of hanging tough.  On Monday, I wrote the following about this defense and their uptick in play since being decimated with injuries:

late in the game, when everyone is tired and battered, the Dallas Cowboys have become a team that can find the 4th Quarter sack.  Think back to almost any win you would like, and you will almost always see some key moments late in the game that involved the Cowboys pass rush.  And sure enough, that can be proven in that the Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL with 4th Quarter sacks with 16.   
And from November on, the Cowboys are #1 in the NFL with 10 4th Quarter sacks.  You can almost name them all, including clutch moments last night as the Steelers were trying to find a winning score.  3 giant 4th Quarter sacks took down Ben Roethlisberger that started with DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer sharing a sack, then Sean Lissemore popped through to get one, and finally, Anthony Spencer who did it again.  
Spencer is quite a story....in 2012, it seems that he doesn't need an advocate any longer.  He trails just JJ Watt and Aldon Smith in 4th Quarter sacks this season with 6, and many of them have been absolutely huge. 
In this space every week, we deconstruct the games and examine for "splash plays".  In your 14th game of the year, it seems absurd that there would be 3 different players registering their first real contribution of the season in that metric, but look:  Brian Schaefering, Michael Coe, and Eric Frampton all did just that as injuries and erratic play has pushed them on to the roster, and eventually on to the field.

Rob Ryan has taken his fair share of criticism in the last 2 years in Dallas - most of it brought on by his special brand of Ryan-family-bravado that makes him an easy target - so, I think it is only fair if we offer him a little congratulations for making sense of this group when the season is on the line and his defense keeps making game-changing plays late in these must-win December games.

In fact, against the Bengals and Steelers we have seen some very interesting increases in aggressiveness from the defense in terms of blitzing and bringing pressure.  This requires faith in your secondary and a risk that perhaps is a result of desperation.

You could make a strong case that this has ambushed these opponents because they see on film a huge chunk of the season where the Cowboys didn't blitz much at all.  So, perhaps they lulled their opponents to sleep. But, even when they dial it up more, they are still picking their spots.  And below, I want to look at a genius idea from Ryan that perhaps won the game:

=======

Breakdown of the Lissemore sack:

This is a real interesting moment of the game that in retrospect might have been the equivalent of a defensive "hail mary".  If you recall, DeMarcus Ware had just made a huge mistake when he belted Ben Roethlisberger in the back of his head with his right arm after Ben had hit Antonio Brown for 11 yards.  This moved the ball quickly near mid-field with over 1:30 to play and the Steelers had all of their timeouts.  It is reasonable to assume that if the Cowboys conceded any more real-estate, the Steelers would be squared away to attempt a game-winning field goal.

Now, Ware is off the field on this next snap, adjusting his arm brace with the equipment staff.  It is 1st and 10 from the Steelers 46 yard line.  Of all of the times to try your biggest blitz of the game, this would not be when your opponent would expect it.  No Ware and a 1st Down play.  This all tells Pittsburgh that this is a play to go look for more yardage.

But, Rob Ryan sends his 5th blitz of 6 men on 1st Down ALL SEASON.  That is in 167 possible situations.

But, with Pittsburgh in 11 personnel, that means you will have man-to-man underneath a single-high safety.  Gerald Sensabaugh will start the play at 20-yards depth, but at the snap, he is clearly headed backwards fast to a point where you cannot even see him on the "All-22".

On this first picture, check out Eric Frampton, the 2nd safety, charge to the line across from Heath Miller and that gets the attention of the RB to Roethlisberger's left to pick-up.  



Now, check the view from the endzone.  Here, if you include Frampton, is a 6-man blitz with 6 blocking.

See that Spencer is back on the inside and this will alert the Steelers since they surely broke down his impact moment in the Bengals game and are on guard when he moves in side.  Ryan will use this against them because he is asking Spencer on this play to attract as much attention as possible.  He will stunt him inside across the center's face and have Albright cut back around him in a twist.  

The key here will be getting 2 to stick with Spencer.  This will free up someone in a 6-on-6 scenario so that someone is running free at Roethlisberger.  But, it has to be quick.


Now, look what happened.  Spencer attracted all 3 interior Steelers.

It could not have worked better.  The Cowboys wanted one man to run free and instead the Steelers let 2 men run free.  You can see David DeCastro #66 can see what happens in this picture below as he tries to reach out to get Alex Albright, but nobody even touches Sean Lissemore.


Here is what is going on behind the pass rush as there doesn't appear to be anywhere for Ben to go with the ball quickly against this blitz.  If he waits, Miller might turn the corner on the wheel route to the left sideline (at the bottom of the screen), but that is a slow-developing route for sure.



He has to wait and when he does, Lissemore gobbles him up, with Albright and Victor Butler all right behind him.  Anthony Spencer was such a threat that the RG, C, and LG all keyed on him, and this does what the blitz should do - causes confusion and gets a man to run free.


Hard to believe a play like that can work with #94 on the sideline, but that is also a brilliant time to spring a trap.

The play lost 8 yards and Anthony Spencer then registered his 10th sack of the year on the very next play and the Steelers threat was over.

SPLASH PLAYS

Let's take a look at the "Splash Plays" from Week 14 vs the Steelers:

Splash Plays are key impact plays from the defense.  Usually, they are obvious, but there are some that blur the line.  I have listed time and play of each one for those who want to double check my work.

For more, read a detailed explanation of this study here:  What is a Splash Play?


WEEK 14 vs Pittsburgh

Clearly, this was Brandon Carr's best game of the season from a standpoint of showing up on film.

His aggressive plays all suggested that his history with Todd Haley was quite useful in knowing what to look for and what routes might be coming.

And the play he made in overtime was the type of game-winnnig play at just the right point of the season that justifies his salary.

Q-TimeD/D/YdPlayerPlay
1-14:152/4/O26CarrPass Broken Up
1-13:361/10/O33CarrPass Broken Up
1-13:272/10/O33FramptonBig Hit Pass Break Up
1-13:233/10/O33ButlerPass Batted Down
1-0:391/10/O8SchaeferingRun Stuff
2-14:113/5/O13Albright3rd Down Stop
3-5:571/10/O40SpearsSack
4-14:561/10/D36SpencerBig Pressure
4-3:363/4/D37Ware/SpencerSack
4-1:471/10/O20CoePass Break Up
4-1:341/10/O46LissemoreSack
4-1:122/18/O38SpencerSack
5-14:292/4/O26Carr (2)Interception/Big Return


Here are the season totals through 14 games:

PlayerSplashes
Spencer32
Ware29
Carter15
Hatcher14.5
Claiborne13
Carr12
Lee10
Brent9.5
VButler8
Ratliff6
McCray6
Scandrick5
Crawford5
Sensabaugh5
Spears5
Lissemore3
Jenkins2
Coleman2
Peprah2
Conner2
Albright2
Lewis1
Church1
Schaefering1
Coe1
Frampton1
Team Total192


===========

BLITZING REPORT

The Steelers found big plays with relative ease on Sunday, including a 60 yarder over the top that caused many of us to acknowledge that Danny McCray is a real target since it was very similar to the Thanksgiving bomb.  The Cowboys seem to realize that he is being attacked and are trying to limit his exposure in pass situations.  You have to stay deeper than the deepest man, but he is too likely to eat he cheese of a play-action fake.

Q-TimeD/D/YdPlayRushers
3-5:232/12/O38Roethlisberger to Wallace, +603
2-0:472/10/D30Roethlisberger to Miller, +30 TD3
4-1:422/10/O20Roethlisberger to Brown, +264
3-0:531/10/O22Redman left, +22--
4-14:542/10/D36Roethlisberger to Cotchery, +215
4-5:391/10/O36Roethlisberger to Johnson, +214
4-0:181/10/O44Roethlisberger to Wallace, +20--

Blitzing did help lead to some big plays, so this might have been Rob Ryan's finest moment of the season to generate so much of a pass rush off blitzes when the game was on the line.


Q-TimeD/D/YdPlayRushers
3-5:571/10/O40Spears Sack3
4-3:363/4/D37Spencer/Ware Sack5
4-1:341/10/O46Lissemore Sack6
4-1:122/18/O38Spencer Sack 5
5-14:292/4/O26Carr Interception4


Pass Rushers Against Pittsburgh- 42 pass rush/blitz situations:

Pass Rushers1st D2nd D3rd D4th DTotal
3 Rush12104
4 Rush1195025
5 Rush255012
6 Rush10001
7 Rush00000

And, here are the full season numbers to date:

Pass Rushers1st
D
2nd D3rd
D
4th DTotal
3 Rush16 -
10%
22 - 13%30 - 22%1- 14%69
4 Rush113 - 68%104 - 62%75 - 55%4 - 57%296
5 Rush33 - 20%39 - 23%24 - 17%2 - 28%98
6 Rush5 -
3%
4 -
2%
8 - 6%017
Totals1671691377480


The game by game pressure numbers:

Wk 1 - NYG: 11/37 - 30%
Wk 2 - SEA: 10/26 - 38%
Wk 3 - TB: 12/32 - 37%
Wk 4 - CHI: 12/27 - 44%
Wk 5 - BAL: 10/27 - 37%
Wk 6 - CAR: 9/39 - 23%
Wk 7 - NYG: 2/31 - 6%
Wk 8 - ATL: 5/37 - 14%
Wk 9 - PHI: 7/43 - 16%
Wk 10 - CLE: 4/36 - 11%
Wk 11 - WAS 3/30 - 10%
Wk 12 - PHI 6/36 - 16%
Wk 13 - CIN 11/37 - 30%
Wk 14 - PIT 13/42 - 31%

Totals:  115/480 - 24%

Once again, how do you judge a defense that is down both defensive tackles, both inside linebackers, a safety, and a corner?

Given the circumstances and given what we saw the Steelers were capable of earlier in the game, it is tough not to congratulate the Cowboys for surviving a great fight where both the winner and the loser was going to take huge shots from the opponent.

But, who would survive at the finish line?  The Cowboys did.

Now, here comes the Saints to seek and find your weaknesses.  It is a tough job that Ryan has these days.


Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Decoding Garrett - Week 14 - Steelers

There was a pretty interesting stat that emerged from the Cowboys exciting win on Sunday that I think is worth mentioning before we move the Pittsburgh game completely aside.  It is the following:

Since 2004, there have been 5 times that the Steelers have lost a game while conceding 300 yards of passing to the opposing QB:

Sept 25, 2005 - New England 23, Pittsburgh 20 - Tom Brady 346 yards
December 9, 2007 - New England 34, Pittsburgh 13 - Brady 399 yards
November 11, 2010 - New England 39, Pittsburgh 26 - Brady 350 yards
January 8, 2012 - Denver 29, Pittsburgh 23 - Tim Tebow 316 yards
December 16, 2012 - Dallas 27, Pittsbugh 24 - Tony Romo 328 yards

In other words, it doesn't happen very often.

This was actually the 7th game this season where the Cowboys offense put up 400 yards of total offense, but it has been one of those years where the Cowboys have put up a very large amount of its production in games when they fall way behind and build up statistics that may or may not truly matter.

The Giants game in week 1 is thought of as the most efficient game this season in terms of productivity,  with an enormous 7.6 yards per play and 433 yards on just 57 snaps in a game where there was never a circumstance that would point to hollow yardage.  The top 2 performances in terms of yards per play were 2 of the last 3 games in which DeMarco Murray has been available again - 6.7 against a Philadelphia team that has offered no resistance whatsoever this season and 6.5 against a Pittsburgh team that builds its entire identify off its defense.

In fact, if you add in the 481 yards put up against the Baltimore Ravens, and you might see that the Cowboys showed themselves quite capable against the physical AFC North.  Wins against the Browns and Bengals, and offensive showings against the Ravens and Steelers - along with a 3-1 record (just a kick from 4-0) - tell us that the Cowboys may be a more physical team than we gave them credit for being.

There was a stat that floated out there on Sunday about the fact that DeMarco Murray has not eclipsed the 100 yard barrier since Week 1 in New York, and that is absolutely true.  If you have built your fantasy football team around him this year, I imagine your playoff run is already over.  But, it is tough to measure what his effect is on this offense from a standpoint of being capable of converting short yardage situations, picking up blitzes, being a receiver out of the backfield, and most importantly, selling play action.

Teams do not want to get beat for big yards against him, and that is why the linebackers stay home on the play fakes.  This allows for plenty more opportunities down the field - like the seam pass to Jason Witten for the touchdown on Sunday, and slants right past the ears of linebackers after a run fake.  That, and the fact that Murray has been good for 289 rushing and receiving yards in 3 games tells you that he is worth all of his hype.

Obviously, however, the Cowboys have discovered the hard way just how weak their offense looks when Murray is not available.  I don't believe Felix Jones is even a consideration for an extension in 2013, simply because the offense just cannot function with Jones or even Phillip Tanner behind him.  One major objective on draft day has to be to get another young RB or two in here to compete for the #2 job behind Murray.  To not plan for his next injury would be irresponsible, but given his style of running and his durability issues, the Cowboys must make it a priority to be covered the next time he cannot go for an extended period of time.

Other items worth mentioning included the idea that the Steelers were unable to generate many negative plays.  James Harrison certainly did a fine job on the Murray fumble in the red zone and the Romo naked boot leg that he sniffed out and destroyed, while Lawrence Timmons threw Tony Romo for a giant sack, but 3 plays out of 63 is a number you can live with after Geno Atkins alone had a half-dozen the week before.  I know the Steelers are not at the height of their defensive powers these days, but I think in a week where the Cowboys had to deal with the many exotic looks that a Dick LeBeau defense can provide, the fact that they seldom allowed a blitzer a free run at Romo is definitely worth pointing out.

The zone blitz requires the proper personnel, but to see Pittsburgh run it like they do really makes me wonder if the Cowboys could do more of that sort of thing with their defense.  The Steelers show that they are bringing 7 all of the time, but almost always have 2 or 3 dropping back in to passing lanes.  The one time they brought all 7 was on the 2nd and goal play in the 4th Quarter, right before the Murray TD run on 3rd and Goal.  They have almost no healthy cornerbacks and still are running a Cover 0 blitz on the goal-line.  I loved it, but couldn't tell if it was desperation or a great strategy.

But, through it all, I think most of us would have to say that the offensive line played about as well as you can expect them to.  In particular, Doug Free versus Lamarr Woodley was a match-up that did not result in any Steelers' highlights - perhaps because Woodley's health is not anywhere near where it should be, but take your victories any way you can get them.

One more offensive development worth raising is the contributions of Dwayne Harris, James Hanna, and Cole Beasley.  All 3 made plays in the passing game to help compensate for less Dez Bryant targets, and all 3 look very threatening as speedy threats.  I wish we would have seen more Hanna in 2012, but I understand that he must distinguish himself as a blocking threat if he wants to be used more.  That could simply require time and development in the offseason, because his wheels sure made linebackers look useless trying to run with him.  That is the type of mismatch issue that you would want to feature every week now that it has been shown off.

Let's check some of the numbers now-

Data from Week 14 vs Pittsburgh



Run-Pass21-42
Starting Field PositionD 32
1st Down Run-Pass7-26
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go7.26
2nd Down Run-Pass7-12
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go7.2
3rd Down Run-Pass6-5
3rd Down Conversions4-11, 36%


Lots and lots of passing from lots of formations.  This game was going to be on Tony Romo versus Dick LeBeau.  Could Romo move the team without throwing a pass into traffic?

He did very well.

PASSING CHARTS:

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.



1st Half -





2nd Half -  many throws to the perimeter allow you to keep moving the ball without trying to throw through traffic constantly.  



Here is the throw chart for Miles Austin as he became the primary receiver with Dez Bryant nursing his left hand injury.  





Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Wk 1-At New York: 9 Drives - 5 Run/4 Pass
Wk 2-At Seattle: 9 Drives - 3 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Tampa Bay: 13 Drives - 7 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Chicago: 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 5-At Baltimore: 10 Drives - 8 Run/2 Pass
Wk 6-At Carolina 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 7-New York: 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 8-At Atlanta: 9 Drives - 4 Run/5 Pass
Wk 9-At Philadelphia: 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 10-Cleveland: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 11-Washington: 12 Drives - 3 Run/9 Pass
Wk 12-Philadelphia: 8 Drives - 5 Run/3 Pass
Wk 13-Cincinnati: 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-Pittsburgh: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Season: 150 Drives* 68 Run/82 Pass - 45% Run

* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives (there are 6 so far this year).

2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run

This picture below shows familiar target Lawrence Vickers trying to catch a ball with the sun in his eyes.  In a stadium that is indoors, but with windows facing the west.  Amazing job by the designers of the stadium to feature direct sunlight on a football field.  There are no do-overs on billion dollar stadiums.



SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated. High Shotgun numbers are not this team's calling card for success.


Wk 1 - at NYG: 15/54 27.7%
Wk 2 - at Sea: 29/56 52%
Wk 3 - TB: 34/63 54%
Wk 4 - Chi: 50/68 74%
Wk 5 - at Balt: 19/79 24%
Wk 6 - at Car: 22/64 34%
Wk 7 - NYG: 48/83 58%
Wk 8 - at Atl:  29/54  54%
Wk 9 - at Phil: 17/54 31%
Wk 10 - Cle: 52/76 68%
Wk 11 - Wash: 62/75 83%
Wk 12 - Phil: 24/62  38%
Wk 13 - Cin: 43/70  61%
Wk 14 - Pit: 35/63  55%

2012 Season Total: 489/921 53%

2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.


Totals by Personnel Groups:




PackagePlays RunYardsRunPass
11120-01-2
1211846-485-36
134333-201-13
216442-44-40
22100-01-0
23565-60-0
S015290-05-29
S02000-00-0
S11221484-918-139
S128710-08-71
Knee101-00-0
Totals7028821-8742-330

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.

Last week, the Cowboys tried 27 different plays from "under center" formations.  And those 27 plays yielded a pathetic 62 yards.  This leads many of us to the conclusion that shotgun is there only hope.  But, look at how great it worked this week from under center - 28 plays for 169 yards.

They did not abandon their balanced looks and they found many more yards on the same number of snaps.  They should be congratulated for figuring that out.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:



PackagePlaysYardsRunPassFD/TD
11000-00-00/0
12131-30-00/1
13000-00-00/0
21000-00-00/0
22000-00-00/0
23474-70-02/0
S01280-02-81/0
S10000-00-00/0
S11481-33-50/0
S12000-00-00/0
Totals11266-135-133/1


Romo had a very efficient day under duress at times, but the Cowboys refused to scrap their offensive game-plan.  They worked down the field with a number of formations and produced one of their finest offensive performances.  Just a week after a very poor day in Cincinnati that they figured out how to win in the end, we shouldn't assume that they have turned a corner.

However, with more weapons and a player like Dez Bryant who is still coming up with Touchdowns, there is reason to believe that if they need 28-35 points to deal with New Orleans this week, they just might be able to find them.

Maybe, just in the nick of time, this offense is starting to gain some traction.


Monday, December 17, 2012

The Morning After: Cowboys 27, Steelers 24 (8-6)


If it makes your stomach turn to know that many Steelers fans infiltrated your stadium for a pivotal game in mid-December that you simply could not afford to lose, it should.  Maybe there will come a time when the Cowboys enjoy such ticket-holder loyalty that those who cannot attend the game make sure their tickets only find other home-team faithful, but clearly that time is not December, 2012.  However, after thousands do storm your castle, your holiday revenge can be best enjoyed by watching them exit your stadium with sad looks on their faces because they just suffered a potentially season-ruining defeat at the hands of your battered band of brothers.

If you cannot keep them from visiting, make their experience end in such an unpleasant way that they might not be as inclined to join you again.  What wasn't accomplished when all of the Bears fans visited in September, was accomplished on Sunday evening.

Happy Holidays, Pittsburgh.

Brandon Carr, who cost $50 million to acquire in the offseason, had a rather quiet start to his Cowboys career, but his 3 interceptions have all come in the 2nd half of the season and have all included returns of 36 yards or more.  But, yesterday, when he stepped in front of a Ben Roethlisberger pass intended for Mike Wallace, he won a game that was vital to the way 2012 is remembered.  If they are to qualify for the post-season, that result was demanded to be put in the win column, and their big off-season purchase did the deed.

It was another game that required late game heroics, and some pass rush moments that make you think the Cowboys defensive front is developing a flare for the dramatic.  It was not easy, nor pretty, but since when has success been so plentiful around here that style points were important?

This is a team in 2012 who has shown its greatest attribute is their battle.  They, honestly, have seemed to make up for some shortcomings by being the team that has brought an amazing amount of intestinal fortitude and drive to these games, and unlike some of their predecessors, have not seemed willing to be the first team to blink.

And that fight can make up for quite a few things on the field - especially when you are a team that has a lot to make up for.  But, will can push skill quite a ways.  And this team continues to demonstrate a fair amount of will.  Even if their own stadium is being over-run by "terrible towels".

Now, let's not get carried away with this discussion.  The facts are that this team went on a run when it started getting better performances from its franchise quarterback.  If we all believe that Tony Romo is a better than average QB in this league (and anyone who doesn't should just stop reading now), then it certainly behooves him to play like it.  And, for reasons that are both clear and unclear, it seems that he has had to hit his stride after some catastrophic experiences early in each of the last 2 seasons.

In 2012, Romo had one of his slowest starts ever.  After the Giants game on October 28, where he had a very forgettable 1st half to both the game and his year, we broke down his season to date:
Romo is +73 (TD/INT) for his career, but a painful -4 for his season.  And his 13 picks are already the 3rd most of his 7-year career.  After always being amongst the league leaders in QB rating with numbers in the mid to high 90s, he finds himself below Jay Cutler and right next to Michael Vick in 2012, with a 78 QB rating (very close to Quincy Carter's 71-type numbers).

What is happening to one of the more efficient QBs of this era? In almost all metrics, since he has come into the league, he is no worst than 5th when it comes to QB rating behind Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. That is the entire list. Anyone else? And Romo has them on statistical metrics of the individual variety.

It is tough to narrow down specifically what is happening, and honestly, to blame one aspect of the offense is to let others off the hook. But, the following items are true.

* Romo has turned the ball over more than anyone in the sport this year
* Romo has 0 TDs and 5 interceptions on 3rd and 4th downs
* Romo has the 33rd worst QB rating on 3rd Down of 34 qualifying QBs (Skelton, Arz)
A lot has changed since that day.   Including a stretch where the Cowboys have turned a 3-4 record into 8-6, and have won 5 of their last 6 games.  They have certainly not found an offensive line that has made life easy at all, but Romo and the offense has figured out how to exist around their issues and have put up points and production.

In those 7 games, Romo has found 13 Touchdowns without throwing many picks.  3 Interceptions, with 2 of those happening on Thanksgiving against Washington, and a QB rating that is back in those familiar Romo numbers of efficiency with a rating of 101.4 over the stretch which puts his season numbers over 90.  That 90 milestone is of interest because there is one (Romo) and only one Quarterback in the NFL since 2006 who has eclipsed 90 for each and every season.  His 90.2 rating for the season is still the lowest of his career, but the run he has been on since Halloween has put his performance back in the neighborhood of what he has presented the league with his entire career.

And what has that change in performance done?  It has stopped the free flow of giveaways and turnovers.  It has made the Cowboys a tougher team to play against, and after being 2nd (to Kansas City) in giveaways at the halfway point of the season, they have just 6 giveaways in the last 6 games.  That number puts them among the fewest giveaways since Halloween and back in the mix for the playoffs.

This is absolutely not a coincidence.

The Cowboys have many flaws, but when you combine erasing mistakes with a fantastic uptick in 3rd Down efficiency - where no team in the NFL has more 3rd Down conversions in the last 6 weeks than the Cowboys' 41 - and you can see how Dallas has now been in games where the competitive will can make a difference.

And to my eyes, the amount of "will" a team has is always tough to quantify.  But, let's try anyway.  I think that digging down deep and finding a big play is the best way to demonstrate how badly you want to leave with a result.  And late in the game, when everyone is tired and battered, the Dallas Cowboys have become a team that can find the 4th Quarter sack.  Think back to almost any win you would like, and you will almost always see some key moments late in the game that involved the Cowboys pass rush.  And sure enough, that can be proven in that the Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL with 4th Quarter sacks with 16.  And from November on, the Cowboys are #1 in the NFL with 10 4th Quarter sacks.  You can almost name them all, including clutch moments last night as the Steelers were trying to find a winning score.  3 giant 4th Quarter sacks took down Ben Roethlisberger that started with DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer sharing a sack, then Sean Lissemore popped through to get one, and finally, Anthony Spencer who did it again.

Spencer is quite a story, as he has been the definition of "what's wrong with this team" according to many Cowboys' observers over the course of his career, but I have always argued for his value.  But, in 2012, it seems that he doesn't need an advocate any longer.  He trails just JJ Watt and Aldon Smith in 4th Quarter sacks this season with 6, and many of them have been absolutely huge.

Those are just a few players who require recognition, but there are any more.  Dez Bryant has taken a gigantic step forward in the leadership of this team by big moments and a demonstration of toughness and desire that should make any critic quiet.  He has kept playing and figured out how to contribute despite a left hand that looks almost decorative at this juncture.  DeMarcus Ware appears to be playing with one arm, as he wears a huge brace from a hyper-extension felt in Cincinnati.  DeMarco Murray runs with a reckless abandon that shows fresh legs and a refusal to be denied.

The list goes on and on... In this space, we have been quick to point out that this team seems to have an annual swoon in December due to a lack of depth and quality at the bottom of the roster.  I was asked last night if I would concede a change in that quality due to a 3-0 record in December in 2012.  Surely, we must be mindful of sample sizes and not get carried away from just 3 games, but when you consider that Dwayne Harris, Alex Albright, Lissemore, Victor Butler, John Phillips, and James Hanna all played large roles in yesterday's gutty win, you can see that something is being built around here.

They are far from where they need to be, but you can see that the Jason Garrett program is showing signs of life.  His team appears to be adopting those characteristics of teams you admire around football.  A toughness and a level of physicality that make every game a street fight, coupled with a refusal to go quietly in the night.

There was no way after leaving Atlanta at 3-5 that many of us thought this team could make a legitimate run at 10 wins and a division title, but here they are - 2 wins away from the finish line.

In my line of work, after 15 seasons of covering Cowboys football, I am always hesitant to declare anything without reservations, because it seems that the next change in direction of fortunes is just a week away.   But this has been a very interesting season and memorable in that the flaws are so profound and yet the team has not given in to them.

This win against Pittsburgh was just as tenuous in its outcome as many before it, but this team is starting to show us that they may not dominate teams on their schedule, but they seem to be willing to "outlast" some of them over a 3 hour battle.

They have put themselves back into a spot where they have a fighting chance.  And, fighting seems to be what this team does best.

Its been a while since people were saying that about the Cowboys.