Turnover Finale

Year 3 of the Turnover Study is completed (Save for Super Bowl XL), and the results are remarkably consistent with previous years. Here are the records for teams winning the turnover battle since 2003:

2003 = 165-40 for 80.5%
2004 = 168-41 for 80.3%
2005 = 159-42 for 79.1%

So, for the 3 seasons I have tracked the turnover battle, and its relation to the final outcome of the game, the record is as follows:

492-123 for 80% on the nose.

That is a pretty fair sample size, and a very consistent result.

And, by demand, I kept the specific record for each turnover result in 2005:

+6 = 1-0 100%
+5 = 10-0 100%
+4 = 20-0 100%
+3 = 19-4 83%
+2 = 41-11 79%
+1 = 68-27 72%

As you can see, every turnover you add to your advantage, your win % goes up.

How did turnovers affect the Cowboys? Well, when they were even or better, they won 8 out of 11 games. When they were minus on turnovers, they lost 4 out of 5.

Also, new this season is the 100 yard rusher stats. How does a team fare when having a RB run for 100 yards? Very well. Of the 138 times that a RB hit 100, 115 times (or 83%) his team won.


2005 Playoffs

Wildcard
Washington +2 beats Tampa Bay
New England +2 beats Jacksonville
Carolina +5 beats New York Giants (Carolina 100 yard rusher)
Pittsburgh +2 beats Cincinnati

Divisional
Seattle -2 beats Washington
Denver +4 beats New England
Pittsburgh -2 beats Indianapolis (the rare -2 road win)
Carolina Even beats Chicago

Conference Championships
Pittsburgh +4 beats Denver
Seattle +4 beats Carolina (Seattle 100 yard rusher)

Playoff Record: 7-2-1
100 yard rushers: 2-0
There. You don’t have to hear about it again until Labor Day.

Mavericks lack of assists point to a problem …honestly, I had no idea they had this big an issue, but I also don’t really care because I think this is the best Mavericks team I have seen since 1998 when I came to town…

At the start of Tuesday's play, the Mavericks ranked last in the NBA in assists. The Mavericks previously were last in assists in 1993-94 and 1994-95, going a combined 24-140 in those dreadful seasons.

Since the 1960-61 season, only one team has had a lower rate over a full year. The 1976-77 New York Nets, of "Super John" Williamson, had a 17.34 rate on the way to a 22-60 finish.

In their current style, the Mavericks go against the flow of NBA history. Teams that have a low assists rate traditionally vanish in the playoffs – if they even get that far.

In the last 20 seasons, the team that finished last in assists reached the playoffs five times. Three of those clubs won an opening-round series but were gone after two.

Jason Terry leads the Mavericks in assists with 3.6 a game. That ranks 43rd in the league, while Devin Harris is 2nd on the team with 3.3, which is good for 47th in the league. Steve Nash leads the league with 11.5 a game. But, I still like this team more than Nash’s Mavericks squads…

Suddenly, Bill Cowher is smarter than he used to be …

Proving Newspaper theft is still pretty popular these days (despite the fact that now the internet exposes this timeless practice), The Dallas Morning News decides to do a feature on Coach Text messaging …Readers of this blog know that the Denver Post wrote this story on Saturday …I am sure it is a coincidence…

Tippett looks at the blue line …

When asked if the defense's solid performance Monday was because the recently acquired Niinimaa was out with an ankle injury and the old pairs were together, Tippett balked.

"It was because of the way we played as a team, not who was in the lineup," Tippett said.

He did add that Niinimaa's assimilation will take time.

"You can't just dump somebody in and expect them to fit in perfectly," he said. "It's a process, and in the end, he will make us a better team."

But just like his team, Niinimaa will have to battle not only physical but mental barriers.

Well, I know the coach cannot kill his player’s confidence, but that is not a concern of mine. Niinimaa was awful on Friday against Tampa Bay, and I don’t care to see him out there unless someone on the back line gets hurt. Besides him, that is. As for the other side of that trade, John Erskine, I watched him last night in the Islanders loss to New Jersey. He looks like he is playing with a pretty bad hockey team now, and he is a -4 in 4 games on the Island after being -3 in 26 games with the Stars. He now wears #44, and I wish him well, but this trade was about 2 defensemen who needed a scenery adjustment…

Rangers bloggers commence typing! Juan Dominguez has missed a plane! …

Oft-scolded RHP Juan Dominguez did not have a good start to 2006. Dominguez missed his scheduled flight from the Dominican Republic for the start of mini-camp.

Dominguez did, however, arrive in time to participate in Tuesday's workout. He is expected to contend for the No. 5 spot in the rotation.

This will send the usual suspects scurrying to their keyboards to demand the trade of Juan. Allow me to repeat what I wrote on 8/25:

So, here is Juan Dominguez dazzling in another start . He is 25 years old, and from all indications, he is a tough guy to figure out, has questionable work habits, and does not have it between the ears. Trouble is, all of those indications come either from Hart, Buck, or people who listen to Hart and Buck.

Clearly, Juan is not Buck’s type of player. He doesn’t appear to be a guy who will run through a wall for the team. He appears to simply be a guy with a great arm, and potentially great stuff. Then why, is he less regarded than Benoit, Wilson, and Loe, let alone, Danks, Diamond, and Volquez? Why am I convinced he will be making 30 starts for Doug Melvin soon if the Rangers give up on him?

Give him the pill every 5 days here. At least convince me that he can’t pitch. He may be a strange dude. So is Pedro Martinez. He may be a guy you have to babysit. So what? If he can pitch then you cannot afford to take him out with the trash. You have no pitchers! Let’s see more of him.

And again on 12/17:

60% Quality Start Percentage??? If he isn’t in the opening day rotation, this team needs its head examined. Dominguez may have his warts, but he also has the ability to be a dominant starter.

Hopefully, these two portions of previous blogs indicate where I stand on Juan missing a flight on Jan 24th…

Time once again for the “Dale Jr is back” features …How long will people continue to believe this crap?

Let me get this straight. Dale, Jr and Tony Eury split after 2004 because they cannot work well together. Then, Dale, Jr and Rondeau cannot work together, so Rondeau gets the hook. Then, Dale, Jr and Hmiel cannot work together, so the solution is to bring Eury back??? Genius. What do all of these problems have in common? Dale. He isn’t his daddy, and despite the fact that people insist on blaming everyone but him, I am not fooled. He is Kyle Petty, but with far better equipment to disguise his shortcomings. I can’t wait to find out whose fault it is in 2006. It certainly cannot be Dale’s fault…

And now, some hockey email from the last week:

Bobbo,

I have a very difficult question . . but first a backgrounder:

I really like Billy Guerin--both as a player and person. Met him a couple of times, have the signed Playoff Program that he signed from the Star's Wives suite next to our suite while he was injured . . .and on and on. And, yes, my wife would trade me to the Saskatoon Industrial League for him in a heartbeat.

The difficult question:
Is he on the list of highest paid/lowest performance athlete's to come through Dallas? Not to put it in the "Big bag of nothing" category, but the numbers are not good . . .

Thoughts?
Bob Barton

Look, Guerin is not having a good year by any stretch of the imagination. But, he was hired for 5 years. In his first 2, he scored 59 goals and 60 assists for 119 points in 146 games which is as good as anyone on the Stars during those two seasons. Then, year 3 was lost in the lockout. Now, in year 4, he is struggling for sure, but there is no way that 45 poor games in year 4 of a contract can put him anywhere near the highest paid/lowest performance Dallas athlete category for even the last 5 years!

Pierre Turgeon!
Chan Ho Park!
Raef Lafrentz!
Joey Galloway!
Shawn Bradley!

Don’t even try putting Guerin in that group. No way.

Bob the Sturminator,

Ok, I'm not knee jerking on this. I've harbored this feeling since the last playoff series two years ago and have been reluctant to voice it. But now it seems that there is a pattern. I really wonder if you can win the cup with a guy like Turco in net. I love him just as much as anyone. He's a great guy and very exciting to watch.

He seems to me like a guy that relies upon his athleticism to get him in a groove. He's not as much as a technician as some goalies and I wonder if that mindset holds him back. Guys like him have to rely on everything aligning and finding that zone. We they can't find that zone or are unable to maintain it they don't have anything to fall back on to pull themselves out of the rut. Some guys are so disciplined and consistent with their positioning etc. that they can work themselves out of a bad spot. I don't see Turco ever doing that. He's either on or off. When he's hot you can't touch him, but when he's not.....HEY NOW!

I just think he lacks focus sometimes and is a little too carefree out there. This is just something that bugs me. I don't have that confidence like I did in Belfour. You knew he was going to lock it down.

thanks,

Thad

Well, two things. #1, I am very concerned about what is between Marty Turco’s ears right now. I just wish that those thoughts of when Chuck Knoblauch could no longer throw the ball to first base would stop popping in my head every time he gives up a bad goal when the pressure is turned up on him. One can only hope this is merely a phase.

And #2, Ed Belfour is one of the great goalies of this generation. So, to compare Belfour to Turco is unfair to both of them. Turco must go quite a ways to make me forget the great Ed Belfour. Love Eddie the Eagle. Here’s to Ed.