Tuesday, March 06, 2012

Free Agency Shopping List

Free Agency is an expensive place to shop. And contrary to the popular belief around the league about the "crazy spending Jerry Jones", since the ground was broken on his new stadium in Arlington, the Cowboys have spent the bulk of their cash on re-signing their own free agents and the art work at the new palace (as well as tv repairs for the most expensive and over the top television in history).

A quick review of the last 5 seasons of free agency will show that the Cowboys have not stolen headlines since the purchase of "Bigg", Leonard Davis from Arizona, 5 years ago this week:

2007:
Leonard Davis - 3/4/2007 signed a 7-year, $49m contract
Ken Hamlin - 3/24/2007 signed a 1-year, $2.5m contract

2008:
None

2009:
Keith Brooking - 2/28/2009 signed a 3-year, $6m contract
Igor Olshansky - 3/6/2009 signed a 4-year, $18m contract
Gerald Sensabaugh - 3/9/2009 signed a 1-year, $1.75m contract

2010:
None

2011:
Kenyon Coleman - 7/30/2011 signed a 2-year, $3.75m contract
Abram Elam - 8/3/2011 signed a 1-year, $2.5m contract


When the signing of Igor Olshansky is the single biggest piece of free agency business that Jones has completed in 5 years, you know that he is itching to do something splashy in about a week when the window goes up for crazy spending around the league.

The Cowboys are not near the top of the league in available cap room, but they are among the short list of teams that think they are not too far from being able to compete. This logic could very well be faulty, but if you consider that the primes of Tony Romo, DeMarcus Ware, Jay Ratliff, and Jason Witten is not going to last forever, you can understand an urgency to get this thing figured out in a very short period of time. The Cowboys cannot afford the patient approach without turning over the top of their roster. They will not and should not do that, so pushing some chips toward the middle of the table for the short term seems like a reasonable strategy.

As free agency and the draft arrive, it seems obvious to target the gigantic holes on the roster. This team desperately needs help at cornerback, as Terence Newman needs to be replaced, and next year at this time the Cowboys will have to make a decision on the future of Mike Jenkins (if you think the Anthony Spencer dilemma is a difficult one, just wait until we get to the Jenkins debate). They also really need to add interior offensive line and I would always love to upgrade both of the players who surround Jay Ratliff on the defensive line. In a perfect world, I would add a prototypical nose tackle to allow Ratliff freedom to be moved up and down the line on early downs against the run, but I don't think I want to pay someone near the age of 30 to do that, so I would prefer to find that speed bump in the draft where he has his whole career ahead of him (and reasonable paychecks in the short-term, too).

But, free agency is where I need to plug at least one of my major needs: Cornerback and/or Guard/Center. If the Cowboys can find a plan where they can get both, then I will absolutely be impressed (assuming they get quality).

Back in January, I pledged my regard for Carl Nicks of New Orleans. If you want a breakdown of his skills, make sure you give that a read when you get the chance. Beyond Nicks, who will require around $50 million when it is all said and done, there are a few other options (like Ben Grubbs, Baltimore), but Nicks is about it for elite play at guard.

The Cowboys could also look at center, as Green Bay's Scott Wells and Houston's Chris Myers, and both would make a fair amount of sense. But, both are on the wrong side of 30 years old, and therefore I would like to avoid large free agent purchases where you are not considering the long-term future of the core of this team if it can be avoided.

However, where I want to spend a lot of time focusing over the next week is figuring out which way the Cowboys should be steering in free agency when it comes to fixing the cornerback position. Here is the current group with ages based on opening day, 2012:


NameAgeHt/Wt2011 Snaps
T Newman345'10/193829
O Scandrick255'10/192679
M Jenkins275'10/190608
A Ball276'2/197498

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This group did not have a very good year by just about any measurement. It should be argued that their job would be significantly easier if the Cowboys had more of a pass rush than Ware and hope, but, that is the job in Dallas for now so the Cowboys have to either figure out how to find pass rushers or better cover guys (or both). The only corner they are married to is Orlando Scandrick on a 5-year, $27m deal that was signed last fall. That is approaching starter money, but since you need 3 corners in this league who will all play a ton of snaps, the Scandrick deal is not terrible.

Newman is very likely to be cut loose, but the cap savings will not be substantial given his 3 years left of bonus money, although the Cowboys can spread it out into 2013 if they cut him after June 1. Ball is an unrestricted free agent is who is not likely to be kept, either. Jenkins expires next season, and the Cowboys cannot be sure he is a guy to spend large amounts of cash on, given his inconsistent play, aversion to contact, and durability issues.

That is why addressing this spot cannot be over-stated. It must happen. In fact, if the Cowboys signed a free agent AND used a top draft pick on a corner as well, I would not complain. We will cover the draft more in weeks to come, but let's look at the top CB free agents according to most experts' lists:


NameAgeHt/Wt2011 Snaps
B Carr266'0/2071,030
C Finnegan285'10/1881,142
C Rogers316'0/1921,024
L Webb265'10/182993

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Given familiarity of the NFC East, I have seen enough of Carlos Rogers over the years to scratch him off my list, despite a fantastic year in San Francisco. His age also is something I don't want to continue to concern myself with in the secondary, so that cuts this list to 3.

Lardarius Webb of Baltimore is another interesting player, but he is simply a restricted free agent and thus comes with some level of matching rights and compensation, so I would prefer to steer clear of a player like that as well, despite his very impressive resume in 2011.

That leaves Brandon Carr of Kansas City and Cortland Finnegan of the Tennessee Titans as the two most attractive and obvious choices for the Cowboys. In the remaining days this week, I want to break down both players by watching a few hundred snaps of each from 2011 and see if we can arrive at a consensus on which player is more worth the huge chunk of cash that will be required to get either. You can believe they are both eyeing the $50 million barrier, so the Cowboys need to get this choice right. Let's see if we can do the same in our study of Carr and Finnegan for Thursday and Friday here on the blog.

Monday, March 05, 2012

Franchise Tag Day Is Here

Just hours remain now before the 3pm deadline for the franchise tag to be applied to impending free agents around the national football league. This blog has been a place that has written plenty about the Cowboy's options, and the wisest decision was concluded here long ago that the Cowboys should apply the tag to outside linebacker Anthony Spencer.

There is no question that this is being considered about as insane as the last two times the Cowboys arrived at such a decision - with Flozell Adams (2002) and Ken Hamlin (2008). Because in each case, the player was certainly not an elite player at his position, nor the very definition of the words "Franchise Player". However, it is merely a label that explains the original intent of the rule, not the present way it is used around the league as the annual safe-guard for making sure teams don't lose their best free agent without some resistance.

It should also be noted that the Cowboys with Adams and Hamlin used the tag simply to obtain leverage against a player in a negotiation. Let's look at that with Spencer.

Say they have offered Spencer 5 years, $30 million, with $15 guaranteed for a long term extension (it should be noted that I am absolutely picking those numbers out of mid-air and have no insight as to whether this is actually being discussed. Just an educated guess). He is right to wonder if there is a better offer out there among the 31 other teams, given that now that a few other players have been taken off the market. If he squints really hard, he can see how his agent could make the case he is one of the very best free agents at the position to hit the streets on March 13th.

So, when Spencer compares 5/$30m with whatever his agent considers is the going rate (let's say 6/$40m), you can see how that camp would not be happy with the offer and hold tight to their demands that the Cowboys slide more money over to his side. But, he needs those imagined offers from other camps to build his case. Otherwise, once the tag is slapped on him, he realizes (whether he wants to or not) that his leverage has completely disappeared and now he must compare his two offers: 5/$30m or 1/$8.8m, both from the offices of Jerry and Stephen Jones.

And, like Flozell and Hamlin before him, he will likely be annoyed by that change in leverage (no mystery team with a large bid coming) but will come to his senses once he ponders the possibility of an injury or a down season in 2012. Usually, after his agent has tried every trick in the book to get the Jones family to bid against itself in the name of "doing the right thing", the player will take the offer by the mid-July deadline that had been on the table since mid-February. Again, I may have to dollars wrong, but this story is repeated every year around the league with few exceptions.

Hamlin and Adams then signed their deals for multi-years and the franchise tag had accomplished its goal and gone back in the cupboard. The players ultimately got their money, but not as much as they had originally dreamed. And the fans who gasped at the idea of terming Ken Hamlin as a "franchise player" went back to doing something else with their time.

If Spencer doesn't like the insult of 1 year/$8.8 million, then players need to remember to fight harder against that in the next CBA. But, they never agree on that sort of thing that applies to such a small percentage of players. In fact, most players would look at that one-year pay day as much more than they made in their entire careers. This is not something that gathers enough at the grass roots to get it to change. Of course, players can make much more if they have 32 bidders at the auction, but nobody is going to cry for a player like Spencer that has frankly disappointed during his career to this juncture.

His options remain, such as signing the 1-year tender with the condition that the Cowboys can not franchise him again next season. He can bet on himself and hit free agency next year with a lot of cash in his account and hope to hit it big next year. He can also choose to not sign the tender altogether and hope to force a trade with a hold-out, but it doesn't appear that Spencer is willing to do that. Players who have that amount of nerve better also have a playing resume that is unquestioned. Spencer is not in that class.

So, expect the tag today and an announcement of a 5-year deal in a few months. This allows the Cowboys to focus on a number of players who are of greater priority than Spencer.

Allow me to address one further argument against the franchise tag for Spencer. Many emailers will say that "this consumes a majority of the Cowboys' money to spend in this offseason". The idea is that the Cowboys have $17m in cap room, and if they spend $9m on Spencer, then they are pretty much done.

This is just not the case. The Cowboys have a number of deals that are easy to restructure. One phone call to Tony Romo's people can generate enough cap room to consume the entire Spencer deal by converting salary into bonus money with just his deal. DeMarcus Ware and Doug Free can also be used to find cash with great ease. The $17m in cap room is actually a lot closer to $30m plus if the Cowboys wish to use all of their resources to get things accomplished. And then, once Spencer does the inevitable, the ability to convert his $9m back into cap room would not be difficult (although not a cinch until he agrees) by training camp. It is simply the way to massage your money to make it work through the offseason.

The real way to blow through your money is to pay someone else for their OLB. That is not available for 1-year and would require a massive amount of cash outlay to make happen. It just isn't practical with so many other spots on your field that are real sore thumbs.

So, again, the money doesn't kill you. The player is in the upper half of your defensive starters (5th best at the very worst) and he is the right age. It doesn't prevent you from addressing the other spots that need addressing on the OL, DL, and secondary. I am not saying it is the move to build your season around, but, to me, it is a simple brick in the wall and many moves need to follow it.

Remember, it is a team game. You cannot change out 16 starters every year. You upgrade your weak links until the ensemble forms a workable unit. That is the goal for the Cowboys this spring. And Spencer can be part of that plan.

Thursday, March 01, 2012

Homer Call of the Year Winners

2000: Colorado Buffaloes vs Texas
2001: Georgia Bulldogs - Larry Munson
2002: Converse Judson
2003: Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals - Paul Allen
2004: Kilgore HS Football
2005: SMU Mustangs - Rich Phillips, Craig Swan
2006: Gol De Scholes
2007: Akron Zips Football
2008: Ennis - Kilgore Refs
2009: Godley HS vs Pilot Point
2010: Flordia Atlantic vs Arkansas State
2011: Little League World Series - Louisiana Lafayette

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

The James Neal/Alex Goligoski Trade - 1 year later

February 21, 2011: F James Neal Traded to Pittsburgh by Dallas with D Matt Niskanen for D Alex Goligoski.

I have been asked more than a few times recently to review the events of that day with a year of perspective in our rearview mirror and ask the question whether the Stars did the right thing. The obvious reasons are the one-year anniversary, the guarded position the Stars stand in the Western Conference playoff race, and the visit this evening by Neal and Niskanen for the Pittsburgh Penguins on Dallas ice at the American Airlines Center.

Before I get to breaking down the trade from our wonderful position to second-guess, let's examine the here and now for the 3 players involved:

James Neal, 24, is already having the best year of his career. His previous highs were as a 22-year old in Dallas where he spent the year almost entirely with Brad Richards and Loui Eriksson and had 27 goals and 28 assists for 55 points in 78 points. But, this year, playing a ton with the league's soon-to-be-MVP Evgeni Malkin, Neal has already eclipsed his previous highs and sits on 30 goals and 31 assists for 61 points with 20 games to play. 30 goals is good for 4th in the NHL this morning, behind Steven Stamkos, Malkin, and Phil Kessel. 13 of his 30 goals have come on the power play - a number that puts him 2nd in the NHL with the man advantage, trailing Philadelphia's Scott Hartnell who has 15. The Penguins have decided he is a part of their core and have paid him $30m over the next 6 seasons in a contract extension.

Matt Niskanen, 25, remains a bottom pairing defensemen in Pittsburgh, like he was in Dallas. He has demonstrated the ability to play higher in the lineup during injuries and has performed at a level that seems to suggest he belongs in the NHL, something that was not happening last season in Dallas before the trade. In sports, we often wonder about how a player is developed and what damage can be done to a psyche from continued failure if confidence falls through the floor. The trade offered him a fresh start and a new approach to the game with a winning organization where he had a clean slate with the coaching staff. Having played in over 350 games in the NHL, he appears to be what he will be, which is a depth defensemen with some puck skills but an aversion to physical play. He will be a restricted free agent this summer in Pittsburgh.

Alex Goligoski, 26, has jumped into the Stars mix on the blue-line as a player that leads the team in ice-time when he has remained healthy. His 22:40 per game puts him top on the roster and despite missing 11 games with injury this season, he still has played 3 minutes more on the power play than any other player on the team. Think about that number. His statistical production is modest as the Stars Power Play remains rather powerless, but the Stars wanted to acquire a piece of that puzzle in this trade to run their power play, help move the puck as a defenseman, and anchor the unit for the next several years. They extended him last month with a 4-year, $18.4m deal.

Now, let's go back 1 year and discuss what was happening. Three things in particular are worth mentioning.

1) the impending departure of Brad Richards, the man who had run the Stars power play and offense in general since the exit of Sergei Zubov, was in the final year of his contract. Given the role Richards had with the Stars man advantage, where he would often run the PP from the point as the QB of it all, the Stars had to make sure that they had a plan on how to compete on any level of quality if they decided to either trade Richards or if they were to lose him in the offseason via free agency (which of course happened).

2) the Stars ownership situation was in no position to do business with Richards, nor was Richards in any position to commit to the future of the Stars franchise without knowing who the owner was that would gain control from the NHL and/or bankruptcy courts.

3) the Stars had just finished a season series with the Vancouver Canucks that was a 4-game beat-down of the highest order. To review, the scores were 4-1, 7-1, 4-1, and 5-2. The games were played within a 6-week period of time where the Stars had to play one of the top teams of the league and were exposed each time because of a blue-line that could not breakout the puck at the NHL level with any consistency. Vancouver, as styles make fights, had just the roster to attack and expose this weakness at the highest and most humiliating level. The 20-5 total goals beating and the way that it happened made things loud and clear for the Stars' brass to see that they needed to build a defense that could handle the puck. Their blue-line in some of those games consisted of Stephane Robidas and Trevor Daley to do all of the puck moving, because the rest of the group wasn't capable. Nik Grossman, Mark Fistric, Jeff Woywitka, Karlis Skrastins, and Matt Niskanen are five guys who have their positives, but composure with the puck on their sticks in their own end is not one of them.

With that information and the feeling that "Richards is gone" to work with, Joe Nieuwendyk had to figure something out quickly. When rebuilding a franchise, you must start with a #1 center, #1 defenseman, and a #1 goalie. The Stars felt that they had their center in Jamie Benn on the way, their goalie in Kari Lehtonen was already there, and now they needed a top shelf defenseman. But, those are very expensive if you want a proven top pair guy. So, you must speculate. Who is not a top pair D-man with their squad, but would be in Dallas if you go get him?

And that is what took them to Pittsburgh. The Penguins know they can only pay so many guys and need scoring wingers around Sidney Crosby and Malkin. They already tried a puck-moving-defenseman-for-winger trade the year before when Ryan Whitney was dealt away for Chris Kunitz. And with their top trio on defense of Kris Letang, Paul Martin, and Brooks Orpik locked in, they could afford to deal the very talented Goligoski before he comes up for free agency in the summer of 2012.

Less than 36 hours after the final beating in Vancouver, he pulled the trigger.

Did the Stars want to lose Neal? Of course not. But, they felt Eriksson and Benn were the two keepers in the 3 man trio and the third would be used to acquire a major weakness on the team, and even today, you could argue that they got that decision right.

When national types simply look at stat lines and surmise that James Neal is on career-highs while the Stars power play is awful, it is easy to deduce that Pittsburgh took Nieuwendyk to the cleaners. I even heard one respected voice suggesting that Matt Niskanen for Goligoski is comparable, and if you believe that Nisky was going to play top minutes on this Dallas blue-line in 2012 and run the power play from the point, then you are as crazy as that respected voice was when he uttered such nonsense.

There are countless benefits to playing with Malkin that must be calculated. Neal is a real talent, but don't think for a second that he would be scoring 30 in 60 games anywhere in the league. He went to the perfect scenario and actually is one of the few players that will ever find that he can leave Brad Richards' wing and find an even better center.

Has Goligoski made the trade a win for the Stars? No, not yet, anyway. They need to give him more to work with to see it ever return to where the Stars can take teams apart on the power play. It was said a few weeks back that he is more "Sydor than Zubov". I would concede that point, but only because Zubov is a slam dunk hall of fame type in my mind. We can search for the next Sergei Zubov for a long time and not find him, let alone find him in the same organization. There would be nothing wrong with Goligoski being a Sydor type as long as he is not alone back there. He is certainly not a #1 defenseman who can do everything for you. But, can he be a solid #2 or #3 on a contender? Absolutely, I feel he can. But, to find that out, the Stars still need to figure out how to reel in that #1 Pronger/Chara/Lidstrom/Weber type, and they don't make very many of those.

If the Stars still had Neal but didn't have any plans on defense for the power play or offense from the back end, I think they would be in big trouble. Credit the Stars from adding Goligoski, Philip Larsen, and Sheldon Souray so now they have a blue-line with Daley and Robidas that actually looks substantially more comfortable and better in getting the puck out of their own end. Perfect? Far from it, but Vancouver isn't going to hammer them 20-5 this season.

The Penguins were a much better hockey team than Dallas before the trade and the trade wasn't going to change that. A trade of assets so that each team could address their weaknesses makes sense on both sides. It did not mean that Pittsburgh had all of the needs that Dallas had, nor does it mean that the Stars would get to play with Crosby or Malkin and see their stats soar. In my mind, the Stars had to pay to get a guy that can help them stay competitive in a post-Richards time period, before the new owner can bring in a few more elite pieces to get this team back to the cap and back to contending. And to get that piece, they would have to deal a scoring winger that would hurt to see among the league scoring leaders.

Despite that, as the 3 key figures of this deal meet again on the ice tonight in Dallas, I think the Stars understand that it was a brick in the wall that is still being built. But, I don't think they see it as a deal they would like to take back. And for the time being, I tend to agree.

They just need to keep building this summer.

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

The BaD Radio Weekly Podcast

24 February 2012 - Bob pulls a hamstring, Khloe and Lamar debut and Dan gets to the bottom of cell phones on airplanes

17 February 2012 - An Anthony Spencer HSO, how BaD Radio celebrated Valentine's day and a happy birthday to Michael Jordan

10 February 2012 - Jon Daniels, Terell Owens' money issues and Deion's conflict with Pilar as told through the word "hmm"

3 February 2012 - Wireless, Vanilla Ice and Sterling Moore

27 January 2012 - BaD Radio reviews Blue Chips, straightens out this Lamar Odom thing with Mark Cuban and plays Stump The Sturm

20 January 2012 - Yu Darvish everything, a call to Green Bay and the movie Catfish

13 January 2012 - Suit Bowl 2012 and the inside story of Bob's book

6 January 2012 - Happy New Year, Lamar Odom's candy addiction and Dan's outfits for the month

30 December 2011 - People killing fools for them Jordans, Boston Bruins' TV voice Jack Edwards and Steve Ott

9 December 2011 - White Elephant Edition! Featuring a prank, an interview with an adult film actress and a serious considering of how lonely Sean Bass is.

2 December 2011 - BaD Radio learns the intimate details of Dan's personal life, reviews the Newy-TO feud and asks TC some questions about drug school

25 November 2011 - BaD Radio gets to the bottom of this JFK business, reviews Dan's thanksgiving quirks and interviews new Stars owner Tom Gaglardi and NHL commissioner Gary Bettman

18 November 2011 - The Musers' proclivity for booking the relatives of famous celebrities, the suburban phenomenon of Apartment People and an especially lengthy discussion of Tim Tebow's merits

11 November 2011 - The Jerry Sandusky case, an assortment of news tidbits and full coverage of Barber Shop conspiracies

4 November 2011 - The world's population, a zany audio bag and the recent Tom Landry doc

28 October 2011 - The Derek Holland debate, an appearance from George Dunham and an interview with Brett Hull

21 October 2011 - BaD Radio looks back on the ALCS and looks forward--in song--to the World Series

14 October 2011 - Bob returns from Honduras and tells many stories!

7 October 2011 - Rangers win the ALDS and BaD Radio talks to Tom Seaver

30 September 2011 - Rhadigan's beef, 2011 GBL payoff and Bob's weekly phone call from Honduras

23 September 2011 - More thoughts on Moneyball, how Mark Followill relates to the formation of BaD Radio and reflections on the retirement of Mike Modano

16 September 2011 - BaD Radio has the harrowing tale of changing a tire, an interview with Gibby Haynes of the Butthole Surfers and an advance review of Moneyball

9 September 2011 - TV critic Ed Bark, Michael Irvin's wheels-off preseason performance and Mark Followill's play-by-play of everyday events

2 September 2011 - Stunning and revealing interviews with Troy Aikman, Daniel Johnston and Bob Sturm

26 August 2011 - Dan brings us the story of a man fascinated with diapers, and Bob reveals some big news

19 August 2011 - BaD Radio checks out the new TV show "Most Eligible Dallas," tells the story of the Wrestling von Erichs and discovers the most intense Knox City football fan imaginable

12 August 2011 - Deion's Hall of Fame induction speech, Dan's car trouble and Bob's big secret revealed

5 August 2011 - Live from training camp! The pop culturally biased quiz, a preview of Rob Ryan's defense and Dan & Donovan's attempts at stand-up.

29 July 2011 - BaD Radio wins the softball game, turns in a top-3 mailbag and interviews Mike Modano

22 July 2011 - Ralph Strangis on Press Your Luck, the It's Just Banter of handicapping the Guest Booking League, a recap of the Breaking Bad premier and an interview with Poot from the Wire

15 July 11, 2 - The first four of the eight interviews Bob and Dan have conducted with Dirk Nowitzki. This is part two of two.

15 July 2011, 1 - The first four of the eight interviews Bob and Dan have conducted with Dirk Nowitzki. This is part one of two.

8 July 2011 - TC gets kicked out of the Ballpark, Emily Jones finds herself in a tough spot and BaD Radio launches the Guest Booking League

1 July 2011 - BaD Radio reviews their thoughts on Game Of Thrones, Bob interviews his high school basketball coach and Donovan hosts the hot new gameshow "Hood Family Feud"

24 June 2011 - BaD Radio reviews the Tom Grieve Batting Challenge, explains some of the drops from the show and interviews Jim Knox

17 June 2011 - BaD Radio celebrates the Mavs Championship with a series recap, stories from the locker room after game six and a celebration of the Mavs parade

10 June 2011 - Greg Doyle audio, Bob's beef with some guy in Houston and the Sports Grid radio host power rankings

3 June 2011 - BaD Radio interviews a sales rep for Miami Modern Luxury, reviews the Mavs' big win in game two and talks to the real Heat fans of South Beach

27 May 2011 - The Western Conference Finals trophy presentation, Oprah's last show and a quiz about Oklahoma City

20 May 2011 - Twiggy breaks down bull fighting, BaD Radio interviews Jimmy Goldstein and Aquaman talks to sea creatures

13 May 2011Scoops with Phil Jackson, Donnie Nelson and random awesome segment about Bob's mother in law and drug rehab (separately)


6 May 2011The death of Osama bin Laden and an interview with former Navy SEAL Clint Bruce

Free to RT, Smith to LT in 2012

News broke late last week - although we have all known it for quite a while "unofficially" - that the Cowboys were going to perform the inevitable decision of moving Tyron Smith to left tackle for what they hope will be the last move of his career. This move will require Doug Free to move one more time back to the other side of the offensive line to guard the right flank of Tony Romo for the foreseeable future.

It was inevitable because the Cowboys took Tyron Smith at #9 in the draft even though he was just 20 years old and you would have to go a long way back in the NFL draft to find a team targeting a right tackle-only type in the top 10 where the big dollars are paid. It is just not a great use of resources. If you liked him enough to give him a year to transition into the life of pro football and invest in his long term, you certainly owed it to the organization to examine whether this blue-chip prospect could be one of the top left tackles in the sport for years to come in Dallas.

The move was not met with universal approval from all local circles. For instance, my colleague and fellow football fanatic, TC Fleming had a well-done write-up about how Doug Free is now the single-highest paid right tackle in the league, given his hefty 4-year, $32 million dollar contract. That fact seems rather shocking and according to some, demonstrates that the Cowboys made yet another personnel department blunder when they inked him to that deal last July when the lockout ended.

And to some extent, it may speak to that, but while I will admit that I did not realize that his deal puts him in elite company for that spot, I also would argue that the point that he is now over-paid is irrelevant. The Cowboys offensive line needs help, but judging from the eyeball test of 2011, Doug Free underperformed and was still the 2nd best offensive lineman at the worst.

Here is what I wrote about Free's performance as we evaluated the OL a month ago:


LT - Doug Free - 641 pass plays - 10 sacks: Free started the season very well coming off his new contract. In the first 4 weeks of the season, Free was not involved in hardly any situations that led to sacks. Andre Carter went around his edge in New England, as did James Hall of the Rams, and Trent Cole of the Eagles. There was one blitz awareness issue in the game at Washington that led to London Fletcher's sack, but otherwise a very strong month of November. But, in December, Free was just beaten over and over again (6 of his 10 sacks in December). In fairness to Free, Jason Pierre Paul was dominating the rest of the league, too, but against the Giants and JPP, Free was eaten alive. 4 sacks in 2 games just from the left tackle spot and Trent Cole got him again in Dallas. In all, I had Free as the primary blame in 10 sacks this season, but with 2 against Cole and 3 against Pierre-Paul (and 1 more against Chris Canty) meant that 6 of his 10 sacks allowed were against the Giants and Eagles. Free sees the toughest match-up nearly ever Sunday, so, I am not here to suggest he is doing a lousy job, but it does appear that he might be more of a right tackle in the long term.


So many things in life (and football) are about context. In Free's 32 starts since the Cowboys walked away from the Flozell Adams era, Free has managed left tackle pretty well. He obviously struggles against the elite of the elite at that right defensive end, but then again, they are elite for a reason. There is no shame in losing the occasional battle to Trent Cole, Jared Allen, Jason Pierre Paul, Mario Williams, or even DeMarcus Ware. They are awesome players and can beat "anyone", therefore, if Free is conceding the periodic sack but keeping up with the average to above average performance levels among left tackles, than the Cowboys have much bigger problems to worry about at other parts of their squad before we find his replacement.

But, why did he get paid? He got paid because he had the Cowboys over a barrel. They waited to pay him and therefore had the chance of a starting left tackle hitting the free market at the age of 27 years old. That almost never happens around the league and if the Cowboys messed around and tried to get him on a low-ball offer, the ship sailed because of the work stoppage and the Cowboys waiting until the CBA was resolved to not sign any big deals they might regret. They had no fall-back depth at tackle to work with (their own fault for not hitting on any of the young tackle prospects they have tried to develop since Free) and if they were serious about bidding Marc Colombo a farewell then they had to get Free done.

So, they could argue that he was not really their left tackle of the future, but Free's representation would have a good laugh with that and then start taking calls from around the league. He was going to get left tackle money and the question was how much and where. There are simply too many teams that desire a plug-and-play tackle who is not going to get beaten like a drum by the NFL elite. The Cowboys had hours to decide and pulled the trigger and now pay Free more than the going rate for a right tackle.

But, should it matter? The Cowboys were $17 million under the cap in 2011 and were paying their right tackle, Tyron Smith 4-years, $12.5 million to play the other tackle. Combine the two, and you have $44 million for 4 years tied up in your two starting tackles who are both going to be strong points of your offensive line. That averages $5.5 million a season for each of your starting tackles and honestly, that is not a very big concern for the front office to sweat. When Tyron demands elite money because he is an elite left tackle (Which the Cowboys desperately hope) in 2015 when it is time to pay him "big boy" money, then you will not be able to afford $8m at right tackle, too. But that is 2015.

Something else to consider: Free's contract is structured to favor the Cowboys, it seems. He had $17m in guaranteed money that is primarily paid out in 2011 and 2012. However, in 2013 and 2014, $15m of the $19m he is scheduled to be paid is not guaranteed and that means that if the Cowboys feel it is not working out, they can send him packing with a minimal cap hit on the bonus money. That means they can walk away in 2013 for just $4m in dead money and can do the same in 2014 for just $2m. It is structured in a way that the Cowboys could live with and that covers them from any sort of performance drop off that is unacceptable.

And we haven't even touched on the big item here; that the Cowboys have properly developed and grown Tyron Smith. There are no promises of elite-level performance from Smith, except for his enormous tools and upside. They did not rush him to left tackle, rather they took time and worked hard with him after practice to make sure they were not throwing too much at him. I think this will pay big dividends down the road. The alternate route would have been to refuse to pay Free the money, put Smith at left tackle in his first game as a pro, and toss him to the wolves. His confidence and development may have been stunted, but they managed him properly and now feel he is ready for the next vital step in his progress.

There is no question the Cowboys have a list of transgressions that are worth complaining about when it comes to roster management and development. But, I think the idea that they did this Free/Smith situation incorrectly is stretching the confines of an accurate depiction of their situation. I have no problem whatsoever with how they did it. Now, the 3 guys between Free and Smith on the line? That was a big problem and one for another day.

Monday, February 27, 2012

Is Doug Free Being Paid Too Much To Play Right Tackle?

Hey, everybody. TC Fleming here. This week the Cowboys announced they're flip-flopping their tackles. Which is all well and good, but what about last year when Dallas agreed to pay $32 million over four years--ostensibly left tackle prices--to make Doug Free their Left Tackle of the Future? For that matter, what are left tackle prices? How do they differ from right tackle prices? And at what level would Free need to play to justify his salary at right tackle?

Starting with that second question, I put together a list of the ten highest-paid players at each offensive line position. Doing this, it jumps out pretty quickly how whacked out the rookie contracts were prior to the CBA. The two highest-paid right tackles in all of football are top-10 picks (Jason and Andre Smith) still on their rookie deals who failed to develop into left tackles. That sort of thing really has nothing to do with Doug Free. If we're going to find out if it's normal to have an $8 million right tackle, we should focus more on situations where teams had a better idea of what they were buying. Do teams setting out to buy (or re-sign) a right tackle demonstrate a willingness to pay $8 million a year or more to get that accomplished? So we're throwing out rookie contracts. With that done, let's check out this neat little table illustrating the difference in the average salaries of the 10 highest-paid players at each position:



Avg. Salary Years Total Money ∆ from LT 
Left Tackle$8.1 million6$46.2 million -
Left Guard$6.1 million6$34 million$2.0 million
Right Guard$5.4 million6$29.9 million$2.7 million 
Center$5.0 million5$26 million$3.1 million
Right Tackle $5.0 million4$22.2 million$3.1 million

The preference for left tackles is no surprise. The relative disregard for right tackles, though, is a little bit of a shock. For this exercise, the important thing is that it's true, not why it's true. To take a brief stab at why though, maybe teams are so desperate for capable left tackles that anyone with the slightest bit of tackle-playing ability gets slotted over there and the remaining talent isn't capable of commanding a decent salary? But whatever. The point is that right tackles are not paid very much. With this week's announcement, Doug Free in fact became the highest-paid right tackle in football.

Obviously, Free would need to be the highest-performing tackle to justify that salary, but by what margin? To try to get a handle on linemen performance, let's use the website ProFootballFocus.com They have people that look at the game film and give a numeric grade based on how well players execute their assignments. If you'd like to know more, it's on their site there. It's a handy way to make a comparison between performance and payment. I took all of the linemen graded in the 2011 season and matched them up with their salary. I added up both of those numbers and divided the two totals by each other to get an idea of what each million spent is paying for. For every million dollars spent on a player, how much higher a grade would one expect that player to have? The answer by position is in the graph below.


Grade Pts per Million Dollars 
Left Tackle9.13
Right Tackle 12.38
Left Guard14.40
Right Guard14.85
Center15.70


So if owners pay right tackles at a rate of about 12 grade points for every million dollars, Free would need to grade out around 59 to justify his $8 million salary. That is a humorously unreasonable expectation. 59 is not on the scale. The most productive lineman regardless of position last year graded out at a 34.6.


But, I think we're being a little harsh here. The 12 grade points per million dollars thing takes into account a good bit of getting lucky. There are a few late-round picks or undrafted free agents that step in to have competent seasons, and their decent performance and tiny salaries combine to throw the whole thing off. Then consider the fact that though it can pay off big, handing an unregarded player a starting job is not an advisable strategy. For every Carl Nicks who comes from nowhere to be an elite lineman, there are 10 Phil Costa's who come from nowhere only to show they were probably better off staying there. Having a track record and a demonstrated consistency are worth something. Sometimes one would like to pay a little extra to know what you're going to get. Looking at these numbers, I think owners are paying a little more than is reasonable for this presumed dependability, but that's a separate conversation. Going back to that list of 10 biggest free agent signings by position and doing the same salary-to-performance check, we get an idea of how much owners are willing to pay for established players:

Grade Pts per Million Dollars 
Left Guard5.69
Left Tackle5.71
Right Tackle 7.66
Right Guard7.70
Center10.26

Going by these numbers, we can start to at least squint and see a way for Free to be worth his money. Using the prices paid for established veteran right tackles, Free would need to grade out around a 21 in each of the remaining years of his contract. Seven offensive linemen graded out a 21 or higher, although only one was a tackle. For Free to grade out at that level would still be unprecedented, but not laughably impossible. 

There's one other thing to consider: As you can see from all these tables, guards--especially left guards--are treated as decidedly more valuable than right tackles. An established left guard being paid $8 million would only be expected to just grade out around a 6. 45 offensive linemen (7 left guards) graded out at 6 or above. It doesn't seem very hard at all for Free to reach those levels. Then again, he's never played guard. Given the difference in salary, left guard must be more difficult to play than right tackle. On the other hand, Free proved in 2010 that he was capable of the even-more-difficult position of left tackle. Plus we all remember Leonard Davis going from pedestrian left tackle to exceptional guard (though that was right guard and not left). Given the instability on the interior of the Cowboys' line, there's an opportunity there to shuffle things around to give Free a shot at the available position where he might be most valuable. Going just by the numbers here without any scouting indicating how his attributes would translate to the new position, I'd say a move to left guard is most assuredly the best shot for him to give $8 million or more in value each year.

It's worth mentioning that given Tyron Smith's superb grade last year (14, fourth among tackles) and reasonable salary under the new rookie wage scale (a little over $3 million annually), he is an excellent choice to play left tackle. If he repeats his performance, he will be one of the more cost-effective offensive linemen around.

The Tyron Smith aspect of this decision will probably work out well. Free, however, will have tremendous trouble justifying his contract if he stays at right tackle.






If you're interested in the numbers and everything I used to put all this together, they can be found on this spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlQd7uZjMJ1EdDdoTEZtN21qTG8xM3htM2plQ3VGY3c

Deadline Day

In the 12 days since I spent 1500 words talking about the Stars and their need to be sellers on this trade deadline day, a few things have happened.

For instance, they lost their best player and leading scorer to a skate laceration and still await his return which could be less than a week away.

They also lost a back-to-back set of games the following weekend against the Coyotes and Predators. In the Nashville game, they conceded a back breaking goal with less than :01 to go in the first period. It seemed to be a thumbnail description of the season in many ways. Try hard while a piano falls on your head like in the cartoons.

So, when the Stars boarded an airplane for Montreal 7 days ago, the column still was 100% of my feeling about the direction that Joe Nieuwendyk should take as his phone rings this morning in Frisco.

Then, the last 7 days happened.

First, a 3-0 win in Montreal. Not the biggest win ever, and certainly not an opponent that has demonstrated a whole lot of resolve or quality, but a road win that looked like a complete performance given the absence of Benn and Brenden Morrow.

Then, a gritty 3rd period was needed for the ambush victory in Chicago against a team that is talented and playing their own brand of desperate hockey to attempt to qualify for the postseason. You don't want to get carried away about a 2-game winning streak, but it had been a while since the Stars had put back to back performances together. In fact, over a month.

On Friday, they would play yet another back-to-back where they had been 0-9-2 in such scenarios all season long. Could they finally end that trend and beat a Minnesota team that was in need of a win themselves? With great ease, they could, winning 4-1 and jumping into sole possession of the coveted #8 seed in the western conference.

Finally, yesterday, the Benn-less Stars would attempt to beat the #1 team in the National Hockey League as Vancouver came calling. They fell behind 2-0 to a team that never concedes leads and clawed all the way back up the mountain to score in the final minute and get the winner in overtime to boot. Beating a team that hammered them 4 times last season to the tune of 20-5 is no small accomplishment. The arena was rocking and the Stars had won their 4th consecutive game and had collected 8 very valuable points in one week's time.

As fate would have it, the NHL trade deadline would hit the very next day. Now, a clear decision to sell has been made murky by this unforeseen run of form from a Dallas squad that had not strung 3 wins together since early December. But, the team-game has rounded nicely into form and it appears the Stars in losing Benn temporarily has figured out how to play the proper style to earn points on a regular basis; a simple, rough, and dedicated team style that has 5 defending and then opportunistic and gritty in the offensive zone. Limit the easy chances for the opponent and capitalize when the game offers you a chance to cash in.

The Stars open their eyes this morning and find that they are sitting 8th in the West, but just 3 points out of 3rd as they now trail the divisional leaders in Phoenix. San Jose is 1 point ahead and Los Angeles is 2 points behind. To say that they are right in the middle of the race with 19 games to play is an understatement, and this is where leadership now have to make up their minds.

I said, "Sell, sell, sell". And most of me still says that you have to think about the big picture here and not get too carried away about one week where the team looks like it is playing so that everybody can stay together. I have really enjoyed seeing this team play this style and if it could sustain for 82 games and into the playoffs, I would totally buy in. But, this core has been in place for a while now, and we know that a great week is usually followed by a down week where they can't collect hardly any points because they just don't have the horses to compete in the long term (Payroll, talent, the usual bit).

Most of the attention here at the deadline revolves around two fan favorites: Steve Ott and Mike Ribeiro. If Ott goes, you deflate your fan base and maybe your dressing room in the short term. He is a big part of the heart of this team, and whatever you have left for a fan base that has bought what you are selling has a soft place in their heart for Ott. He plays hard and I have no doubt in my mind that he will be a huge add for any team trying to win a Stanley Cup. Is he irreplaceable? Not at all, but, I better get something awfully good to sell a guy who has given everything he has for the team that drafted him. If I can get some players well south of 25 years old that are part of my core moving forward for Ott, I have to think about it. But, I am not selling him off for fair value. I need someone to overpay for a guy who could be my captain soon.

Ribeiro is a different deal. The emotional ties for him are different than Ott. You don't see #63 jerseys everywhere you look. But, you do see his fingerprints on just about everything the Stars are accomplishing on offense right now. His performance with Michael Ryder and Loui Eriksson in February demonstrates how talented a center he is, and with Brad Richards long gone, it isn't as if the Stars have much in the cupboard at that position once you get past Benn. Ribs has his warts and he can be moody and a man on an island at times, but he also is a worthy player of his cap number and I do not feel compelled to move him along either for the sake of doing so. I think if you trade Ribeiro, then you are conceding any playoff chances this year, and that is why I don't believe he will be packing today.

Beyond that, as much as it hurts, I could see listening on a number of newer pieces. Sheldon Souray has been a good add, but if the Stars think this is only a 1-year fit, then you should trade him now if you can net an asset out of it. Ryder is on a 2-year deal, but with 25 goals already, could you flip him for a 1st rounder and a prospect? If so, you would take a lump now, but you might be happy you did down the road.

Or, do you go the safe route and do nothing. Let this team play their hearts out for the final 6 weeks and hope for the best? But, what is the best? Make the playoffs and get bounced 10 days later? Or, do you really think this team is a team that could go on a serious run in the post-season.

Maybe the biggest problem mediocre teams suffer from is falling in love with their own players. And as many wisemen have once said, "hope is not a strategy". You must collect talent, no when to hold them and when to fold them. You cannot make decisions based on one week of good hockey if you have been watching them as their general manager for 3 seasons. On the other hand, you don't make a move just to make one. Sometimes, the best move is the one you pass on.

Tick, tock. The clock expires at 2pm today. Many Stars fans are holding their breath. And the phone is ringing in Frisco.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

What Is Wrong With Big 12 Wide Outs?

Going into every draft season, there are a few players that everyone universally agrees will be a star at the next level based on what we saw on college football afternoons. These players were simply too dominant at the last level to not translate in the NFL.

Maybe the best case of "can't miss" that I can remember in the last decade for me, personally, was Michigan State receiver, Charles Rogers. He was a truly superstar every Saturday for the Michigan State Spartans in 2001 and 2002, playing in just 24 college games and catching 25 TDs and 2551 yards. You will not find very many receivers who walk right in to major college football and average a TD and over 100 yards (at over 20 yards a catch) over the course of their entire career. Breaking records and even putting up a 270 yard game, he appeared to be the next star waiting for Sundays.

When the 2003 draft arrived, the hometown Detroit Lions could not wait to take a local kid at #2 after Carson Palmer went to the Bengals at #1. The #3 pick was Houston's, and they allowed Andre Johnson to fall into their laps out of Miami of Florida. Since that day, only Reggie Wayne has out-produced Johnson in receiving yards in the entire league. Johnson has been one of the very best of this generation. And Rogers? Well, Rogers was out of the league in less than 3 years - a player that was suspended multiple times for drugs and had a work ethic that even the Lions would not tolerate. He has had regular scrapes with the law after football and is another cautionary tale of how bad things can go on draft day if we are not careful. By the way, it was subsequently discovered that he had failed drug tests at Michigan State, too, and Detroit either did not do their homework or did not care.

This history lesson starts us out on a discussion about Wide Receivers and the fact that two local "can't miss" players at that position in the last 3 drafts so far have not set the NFL on fire.

Texas Tech's Michael Crabtree had moments at the college level in the Big 12 that were amazing. His production was off the charts, even by Rogers' standards. 3,127 yards and 41 Touchdowns in 26 college games before turning pro. His slide in the draft down to #10 in 2009 where San Francisco snapped him up was the news of the day and surely a break they would very much enjoy. And yet, 3 seasons into his NFL career, he has had very ordinary production. Still looking for his first 900 yard season, Crabtree has not set the world on fire. Surely, his QB situation doesn't help, but even in a year where the 49ers won many games and were just short of the Super Bowl, Crabtree was a player on the periphery of their game plan to the end.

And Oklahoma State's Dez Bryant was the apple in Jerry Jones' eye in the 2010 draft. Many teams had taken him off their draft board altogether and this had allowed Bryant to fall to Dallas at #24. His college production was not as impressive as Crabtree's, mostly due to off field issues with the NCAA. But in his full season of 2008, Bryant put up 19 TDs and 1,480 yards in 13 games for OSU. His ability had many experts saying he perhaps was the best player in the draft, but the baggage made him a risk. Now, 2 years into his career, he has flashed brilliance, but also proven to be a handful of side issues. His one 100-yard game in his career came with the back-up QB, Jon Kitna, despite playing in one of the more productive offenses in the league. For whatever reason, at this point, most would categorize his production at this point at least a modest disappointment compared to the expectations put on him by his own franchise when they rushed to give him jersey "88" as a sign that he was cut from the Drew Pearson-Michael Irvin cloth.

Crabtree and Bryant had a few things in common. Their Texas ties, the ties to Deion Sanders/Eugene Parker in the build-up to the draft, and the fact that they were the best the Big 12 South had to offer during a prolific passing era. Then, to see that they both had trouble initially exploding with success at the NFL level made some of us wonder about the way the ball is passed in the Big 12, and whether it is truly a great way to prepare for the NFL game. Was there enough "press coverage" in the conference, or were there simply "free releases" for every route? The free releases would not prepare these players for the next level, and when NFL corners would press them at the line, something teams do to Bryant and Crabtree regularly, would that cause their abilities to be somewhat mitigated?

And, can you judge an entire conference with the same standard?

The following list is the entire 13 player list of Wide Receivers from the Big 12 who have been selected in either the 1st or 2nd Round of the NFL Draft since the year 2000. With the exceptions of Jordy Nelson and Jeremy Maclin, it seems the entire list would either be labeled a complete disappointment or in the case of Bryant and Crabtree, mild disappointments so far on their road:


YearPlayerSchoolPickTeamYearsYards
2001Quincy MorganKan St#33Clev62466
2001Robert FergusonTex A&M#41GB81993
2003Bethel JohnsonTex A&M#45NE4606
2004Roy WilliamsTexas#7Det85715
2004Rashaun WoodsOk St#31SF1160
2005Mark ClaytonOU#22Balt73448
2005Mark BradleyOU#39Chi51283
2005Terence MurphyTex A&M#58GB136
2008Jordy NelsonKan St#36GB42531
2008Limas SweedTexas#53Pitt269
2009Michael CrabtreeTex Tech#10SF32240
2009Jeremy MaclinMissouri#19Phil32585
2010Dez BryantOk St#24Dal21489

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Of course, every story and every player is different. But, if a league now known for slinging the ball all over the yard and having games approach 100 points some days in total, it makes you wonder how an entire conference could not really have one receiver crack the rankings of top NFL receivers over a 12-year period.

Actually, the Big 12 has had a prolific receiver in the NFL over the last half-dozen years. In fact, Wes Welker, with 4-1,000 yard seasons to his name has out-produced the entire list above where all 13 of those players have just 2-1,000 yard seasons (Roy Williams, 2006 & Jordy Nelson, 2011). But, Welker was undrafted and unregarded leaving college by just about everyone and seen as a special teams-only player.

Upon discovering this data, I had someone suggest to me that Justin Blackmon (OSU) and Kendall Wright (Baylor) will change all of that this year. And that is entirely possible. Both are thought of as 1st Round talents, and Blackmon has been projected by some as better than Crabtree or Bryant. Time will tell, of course, but they will not be the first two Big 12 receivers to get "can't miss" rankings before a snap is taken. But, they might be the first two to actually not miss on Sundays in a long time from this conference.

Now, you might say, aren't there other conferences with a similar track record? Well looking at the Top 25 most productive wide receivers from this era (2003-2011 was the window used), we see that the ACC, Big East, and Big 10 were well represented with the Pac 10 having a few, and small schools representing a rather large number themselves. But, the SEC just had Hines Ward on this list and the Big 12 just had Wes Welker. The SEC would never claim to have adopted the spread offense, but there have been more than a few wide receivers from that conference who have disappointed at the top level despite running "pro offenses" predominantly through this era.

Also, you might suggest that taking a Wide Receiver high in the draft is a bad idea because of the bust factor. But, if you decided to never do that, you would have disqualified yourself from 15 of the 25 most productive Wide Receivers in these drafts as 9 were 1st Rounders and 6 more went in the 2nd round.

Top 25 WRs (2003-2011) - Where drafted (based on total receiving yards):

Rd 19
Rd 26
Rd 34
Rd 42
Rd 50
Rd 60
Rd 73
undrafted1 (Welker)

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So, as you might expect, the best receivers do go in the top few rounds, so if you want a star like Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Wayne, or Larry Fitzgerald, that is where you have to take them. The 7th rounders, Marques Colston, TJ Houshmandzadeh, and Donald Driver do exist, but the odds are quite remote comparatively speaking.

I don't necessarily have a great theory as to why the Big 12 receivers are having a difficult time translating to the next level, but with Blackmon and Wright ready, perhaps the equalizers are on their way.

The combine will reveal more of this story this weekend. But, of course, the only thing that will matter historically will be production on Sundays.

Monday, February 20, 2012

Evaluating the 2011 Dallas Cowboys Draft Class

This week provides plenty of time to look at 2012 Draft prospects for the NFL as the Cowboys and the other 31 teams head back to Indianapolis for the Combine at the end of the week. Over the next few months, teams will build a board and begin to figure out how to populate their rosters with young, healthy bodies to move forward. Every team wants to "churn its roster", keeping things fresh and fostering a spirit of intense competition for each and every spot and snap.

One exercise worth getting to this week before we totally turn out the lights on 2011 is looking at the first group that new coach Jason Garrett brought in. Identifying his role in the "war room" and the personnel collection department with GM Jerry Jones and the normal staff in that regard is still difficult to completely nail down, however, he certainly has influence, and it is interesting to note that 2011 seemed to bring in a number of useable parts moving forward. If the Cowboys can find as many bodies in 2012 as they seemed to bring in in 2011, they will be doing a nice, quiet job of rebuilding this roster the cheap way - through college players.

The following is a look at the new bodies who have joined the Cowboys in the last year straight from college. The players included on this list are only those that had some level of roster impact in 2011. Therefore, developmental signings to take to camp next year are not included. Just 2011 draft picks and undrafted free agents that spent at least a little time on the roster.

First, let's review the 2011 Cowboys Draft, player by player:


Round 1, Pick 9 - Tyron Smith, Tackle, USC

About a year ago this month, Smith was identified as a player of great interest for the Dallas Cowboys. After examining a good portion of his 2010 season at USC and seeing all of his tools and abilities, it seemed like a cinch for the Cowboys to make him a cornerstone for their squad moving forward. He was very young, but he could be good right away and had a chance to be great in a few years. Well, after one season where he started by learning a lot of lessons at the hands of opposing pass rushers, we have already seen giant leaps from Smith. He is being heavily considered to switch to left tackle for the start of business in 2012, and then provided the Cowboys can continue to develop him, there is no reason that he cannot be elite at that vital position for a long, long time. Health and motivation will always be considerations for young tackles, but it sure looks like the Cowboys might have been able to do something wonderful here. There is no doubt that JJ Watt would have helped this squad at #9 (as I have written countless times), but there can be no second-guessing this pick at this spot. He appears to be as important an add to this roster as any player since DeMarcus Ware.

Round 2, Pick 40 - Bruce Carter, Linebacker, North Carolina

Unlike Smith, this Carter selection took me completely off guard. It did not seem a particular position of need and the player was 6 months from being healthy after a significant knee injury. Speculation suggested that if he was healthy, he would have been in the 1st Round, and that is what Dallas is banking on. His contributions in 2011 were rather small, with a special teams play or two that stood out (at Washington), but for the most part, he spent a year getting acclimated to his surroundings and getting his knee healthy. Clearly, with Keith Brooking and Bradie James exiting, a middle linebacker situation that has 2010 addition Sean Lee and 2011 addition Bruce Carter nailing down that spot for years to come can get people excited. However, there was very little about his 2011 season from a defensive standpoint that gave us any indication of what he is capable of at the NFL level. Wait and see is the proper approach for Carter, but with names of great substance on the board when this pick was made (Brooks Read, every safety, and many defensive line prospects) there is a fair number of us who wonder about this selection and did at moment it was made, too. 2012 will be gigantic for him to put that discussion to rest.

Round 3, Pick 71 - DeMarco Murray, Running Back, Oklahoma

Murray was another pick that caused stirring in the media room at Valley Ranch. The selection signaled the idea that the Cowboys felt that Felix Jones was not the #1 running back that they had hoped he would be when they invested so much in him on draft day 2008. Murray would compete for the #1 job as soon as he was ready, and that happened by early October. And for the next few months, it became rather obvious to any observer that Murray was ready for the NFL and for that job. He was fantastic for a big stretch of the year before the Giants game in Arlington where he broke his ankle and ended his year. Nobody knows how things might have been different if he had stayed healthy, and now heading into 2012, the idea that the Cowboys have running back squared away really allows the team to turn their attention to other spots after never really finding a true #1 for years. Murray appears to be another high-quality pick for the 2011 draft and has the potential to make this draft a success.

Round 4, Pick 110 - David Arkin, Guard, Missouri State

Anytime that a team takes a small college offensive lineman, you hope that they have some inside intelligence that tells you they have slipped one by the rest of the league. Then, that small school prospect never suits up one time all season and you get rather concerned that they got too cute and out-smarted themselves. Think about it, as bad as they were at guard last year, they never allowed Arkin to show his ability in public. This redshirt year may have brought him along in the weight room, but for now, I think caution is the best way to proceed with Arkin. He may still have a lot of the ability that they liked last April, and it should be noted that he would not be the first lineman to not play his rookie year and still turn out well, but we need to see some signs that this important pick has something. To not even get a snap from a 4th round pick is not a great start to a career. Stay tuned.

Round 5, Pick 143 - Josh Thomas, Cornerback, Buffalo

Clearly the worst pick of the draft, as Thomas did not make the team out of camp at a position of great need. Instead, they went with a retread, Frank Walker, and sent Thomas away. He was claimed by Carolina the next day, and plays with the Panthers to this day, although he was only active once in 2011. This pick hurts a lot when you consider the Cowboys needed a corner in Round 5 and passed over Richard Sherman from Stanford who went off the board a few picks later at the same position and had an outstanding rookie season in Seattle. If they had Sherman, there would be a completely different feel to the 2012 offseason in Dallas. Instead, their search for young corners continues.

Round 6, Pick 176 - Dwayne Harris, Wide Receiver, East Carolina

Harris had a very strong training camp and preseason and had many believing that he could win and hold down the #3 Wide Receiver role at times in August. However, things did not materialize and he ended up playing one offensive snap in 2011. Meanwhile, Laurent Robinson stepped right in and took over that position as Harris was back and forth from the practice squad to the roster. Whether Harris is simply another name in the media guide or a part of the future moving forward will depend on his development by August. His return game and his receiving ability from the slot seemed useful enough on the 6th Round spot, but so far, there has been very little to sink your teeth into here.

Round 7, Pick 220 - Shaun Chapas, Fullback, Georgia

It was clear the Cowboys were ready to find a true fullback after the tough 2010 for Chris Gronkowski and they took a 7th round shot on Chapas. At the time, they had no way of knowing they would find Tony Fiammetta in September and that brought a quick close to Chapas it seemed in 2011. However, because of Fiammetta's illness, Chapas did actually play in Arizona for 8 snaps and remains on the roster to this day. I do not see him passing Fiammetta moving forward, but he will get the offseason to show his usefulness in 2012.

Round 7, Pick 252 - Bill Nagy, Center, Wisconsin

Nagy was a bit of a surprise pick, too, given his lack of a locked down spot even at Wisconsin in 2010. But, the Cowboys made a bet on the system up there and may have hit on a guy who has versatility and can become either a swing back-up or throw his name into the mix and center moving forward. They had the poor idea of having Phil Costa and Nagy start from Week 1 at center and left guard and together it was a real mess. Neither player had the raw strength to hold up in the trenches so stacking them together was a target for defenses to attack. Nagy broke his leg in New England in the 5th game and ended his year. But, moving forward, there is reason to believe that he could have an impact if surrounded by reasonable players on the line. Might be a solid 7th round pick.

And 4 undrafted free agents who contributed:

Kevin Kowalski, Center/Guard, Toledo

Kowalski is another of the raw young offensive line that could go either way. Like Costa, Nagy, and Arkin, he appears to have strength issues that need to be fixed, but he is another body that has age on his side. If you are going to stock an offensive line with backups, make them young enough that you might even find a starter in the group at some point. Opportunity is certainly knocking for this group. Kowalski played over 100 snaps and will have an idea what he needs to do to get better.

Dan Bailey, Kicker, Oklahoma State

Here is one of the major plus marks of the offseason, when the Cowboys found their kicker. Bailey was outstanding all year long and seemed to bring the kicking carousel to a stop. Whether he can be consistent as a kickoff man remains to be seen, but as far as accuracy as a kicker, the Cowboys did themselves a big favor after dealing with David Buehler for a few seasons of frustration. This is a key pickup.

Alex Albright, Linebacker, Boston College

A player in the mix to be another edge rusher in the 3-4, Albright played enough special teams to make himself useful. Down the depth chart from Victor Butler, Albright seemed capable in his role, and now will need to earn his stripes to move up the board, but I know he has his fans inside Valley Ranch.

Phillip Tanner, Running Back, Middle Tennessee State

Called into emergency duty for a while because of injuries and depth issues, Tanner also demonstrated that he can play at the NFL level as a special teams/depth guy if he keeps working. Whether he can be a candidate to be a legitimate backup running back remains to be seen, but if he had stayed healthy late in the season, it would have been interesting how many chances he would have received that ended up going to Sammy Morris.

11 names that still remain on the roster were found last spring and summer and added to this Cowboys roster. Smith and Murray appear to be clear starters and maybe stars, with Carter as a prospect to start as well. Beyond that, it may be a number of bottom of the roster depth-guys who get switched out for new players this year, but several of them have a chance to push their way further up the depth chart if they can emerge. That includes the offensive line group, where the Cowboys are using a numbers approach - collecting many bodies in hopes of finding a keeper or two.

Overall, I think the 2011 group has a chance to put the 2009 and 2010 groups to shame. In the case of 2009, that doesn't say too much, but the scouts, Garrett, and his staff did an under-rated job of finding players who could make this roster in 2011. Time to continue the job this spring in big numbers, as much more talent is needed in short order.