Learning from the 2009 Draft and understanding the conveyor belt of talent

https://theathletic.com/834133/2019/02/25/dallas-cowboys-amari-cooper-roy-williams-nfl-draft-convey-belt/

2009 Final Receiving Totals - Roy Williams Is Silly

All this talk about Roy Williams this week made me want to reference the only thing that matters - facts.

Here are the painful facts from the 2009 season that Roy obviously isn't referencing when he talks about being "The Man".

"I'm going to look at this thing as I'm the man, like I've always been," Williams said. "And that's never going to change."

Pay special attention to the Catch Percentage:

Season Target Distribution To Date:

Name	Targets	Catches	%	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Witten	124	94	76%	1030	46/2/3
Austin	124	81	65%	1320	43/11/2
Williams	86	38	44%	596	21/7/1
Crayton	67	37	54%	622	20/5/2
Barber	36	26	72%	222	11/0/0
Bennett	30	15	50%	159	8/0/0
Choice	22	15	68%	132	7/0/0
Jones	22	19	86%	112	5/0/0
Hurd	12	7	58%	132	3/1/1
Phillips	9	6	67%	62	3/0/0
Ogletree	8	7	87%	96	5/0/0
Anderson	3	1	33%	5	0/0/
Totals	543	347	64%	4483	178/26/9

Table Tutorial

And then here are the 2009 totals for 3rd Downs:

3rd Down Targets - Season Totals

Name	Targets	Catches	%	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Witten	34	24	70%	210	16/1/0
Austin	32	20	63%	321	14/2/0
Williams	27	9	33%	151	8/0/0
Crayton	24	15	63%	214	13/1/2
Choice	10	7	70%	60	3/0/0
Hurd	5	2	40%	63	2/0/0
Bennett	5	1	20%	15	1/0/0
Ogletree	4	4	100%	58	3/0/0
Barber	2	0	0%	0	0/0/0
Jones	2	1	100%	5	0/0/0
Phillips	1	0	0%	0	0/0/0
Totals	147	83	56%	1090	57/4/3

Table Tutorial

Roy, the Ball don't lie.

Final Cowboys Turnover Chart

This is a chart that I keep on the side for my personal reference that I thought some of you might enjoy as reference tool for yourself-

2009 was a fabulous year for taking care of the football. The Cowboys gave away possession of the football 33 times in the 2008 regular season, and they come back in 2009 and cut 14 turnovers off that total, giving it away only 19 times in 2009. Only Green Bay (16) and Minnesota (18) gave the ball away less than the Cowboys in the NFC. Phenomenal job by the offense of really making things easier on themselves.

The defense, however, remained rather flat. There is a lot to like about a Wade Phillips defense, but one thing that is not impressive at all is the ability to take the ball away (and really, what is more important than that?). In 2008, the Cowboys forced 22 turnovers and in 2009, they actually went backwards to 21. 43 takeaways in 32 games for the last two seasons barely beats Green Bay's 2009 production (40), New Orleans (39), and Philadelphia (38).

We can talk all we want about a dominating defense - and the scoring defense should not be overlooked - but for this defense to get to a higher level, they need to get guys who can take the ball away, too, right? This is one reason why I might try to upgrade a few spots if the opportunity presents itself rather than assume my defense is fine. Ken Hamlin might be a candidate as I do not recall many huge ball-hawking moments for him in the last few years.

	Cowboys Turnovers			Opponents Turnovers
Game	Fumbles (Lost)	INTS	Giveaways	Fumbles (Lost)	INTS	Takeaways	+/-
W @ TB	0 (0)	0	0	1 (0)	0	0	E
L vs NYG	1 (1)	3	4	0 (0)	0	0	-4
W vs Car	0 (0)	0	0	1 (1)	2	3	+3
L @ Den	1 (1)	1	2	2 (1)	0	1	-1
W @ KC	2 (2)	0	2	0 (0)	0	0	-2
W vs Atl	1 (1)	0	1	2 (1)	2	3	+2
W vs Sea	2 (1)	0	1	2 (2)	0	2	+1
W @ Phi	0 (0)	1	1	0 (0)	2	2	+1
L @ GB	2 (2)	1	3	2 (0)	0	0	-3
W vs Was	1 (1)	1	2	0 (0)	1	1	-1
W vs Oak	0 (0)	0	0	1 (1)	0	1	+1
L @ NYG	1 (1)	0	1	2 (1)	1	2	+1
L vs SD	1 (0)	0	0	0 (0)	1	1	+1
W @ NO	0 (0)	0	0	2 (2)	1	3	+3
W @ Was	0 (0)	1	1	3 (0)	1	1	E
W vs Phi	0 (0)	1	1	2 (1)	0	1	E
Totals	12 (10)	9	19	20 (10)	11	21	+2

Table Tutorial

And here are the numbers on the turnover story in the 2 playoff games - clearly a story of two different turnover-related outcomes.

2009 Playoffs:

	Cowboys Turnovers			Opponents Turnovers
Game	Fumbles (Lost)	INTS	Giveaways	Fumbles (Lost)	INTS	Takeaways	+/-
W v Phil	1 (1)	0	1	3 (3)	1	4	+3
L @ Minn	4 (2)	1	3	0 (0)	0	0	-3
Totals	5 (3)	1	4	3 (3)	1	4	E

Football 301: Decoding Garrett - Minnesota

Well, so much for the idea that Jason Garrett had become a bit of a "puppet master" with the rest of the NFL. Every hot streak eventually cools, and while sometimes it might be self-inflicted, the end of this hot streak was surely forced by the physical superiority of the Minnesota Vikings front.

There is no other way to explain the destruction of the Cowboys offense. 246 yards and 3 points both were season lows. And when you consider the Cowboys had 138 yards in their first 3 drives, it is clear how things went from bad to worse; The exit of Flozell Adams from the game meant that the Boys could only account for 108 yards on their final 10 drives.

Not a misprint.

108 yards on their final 10 drives.

But, despite that, I have received many missives from the masses that report to me that they really liked what Doug Free brought to the table and that they are ready to move on from the Flozell Adams era. 40 plays for 108 yards and that is considered a success because Jared Allen didn't get 4 sacks? I think we may have to amend our player grades. Please don't confuse what I am saying - I am not suggesting Free was horrid. But, I am saying that because he needed help with some max protection (you will see on the video that he constantly had a TE next to him), and because Jason Garrett and Tony Romo would not attempt certain things in the playbook since Adams was missing - we might need to curb our enthusiasm just a tad about the arrival of the new Left Tackle.

This is not to say that Flozell and the starting crew had things all figured out in the first 3 drives, because they did not. But, things went from bad to worse when big #76 was unable to return.

Another thing I found quite interesting was the pregame concession that the Cowboys made to the Vikings on 3rd or 4th and short scenarios. I do not necessarily blame them, but because of who the Vikings have, and the lack of success we saw in short yardage against the Chargers and Redskins in December, the Cowboys were pretty sure they had no chance to run the ball to gain 36 inches at the Metrodome.

I hate to say I had this called in Week 15, but I did:

It is certainly not difficult to imagine the trouble that can cause down the road. If you combine that with a kicking situation that is less than rock-solid, you can understand the ice the Cowboys stand on is exceedingly thin. Think about it: The Cowboys are in a crucial game with huge stakes (every game from here until the Super Bowl would qualify as a crucial game with high stakes) and they face a 4th and half of a yard from the opponents 31 yard line. Do you trust the kicker to make a 49 yarder? No. Do you trust your OL and RB to be able to ge that last 18 inches? How could you after the issues against the Chargers and Redskins in the last few weeks? The quandary is there for all to see.

Holy Cow! The only thing that was wrong was I had it at the 31 yard line instead of the 30. Anyway, 3 times in the early going, the Cowboys had to decide what to do in short yardage.

Offensive Play #3 - 3/1/D37 - Cowboys try pitch left to Austin +8, FD
Offensive Play #6 - 3/1/O46 - Cowboys go S11, Pass to Crayton +12, FD
Offensive Play #16 - 4/1/O30 - Cowboys refuse 4/1, miss 48 yard FG

3 chances to demonstrate you can run on the Vikings, and due to past performance and the Vikings film, the Cowboys realize they shouldn't even try it. A concession made to the Vikings spoke volumes. Stunning news for those of us who fancied the Cowboys a true power run team. Sure, they are all about power on 2nd and 8, but a true power team is unstoppable in short yardage. And, the Cowboys may still be alive if they could simply get a yard. We will never know.

And, then the true indictment of the Offensive Line; 6 sacks of Tony Romo. Romo was running for his life, and because of that, I honestly felt that it was next to impossible to evaluate him fairly. There were elements of Romo's game I didn't care for - not the least of which was the appearance that he became far more interested in the pass rush than his receivers - but I was left wondering which QB in pro football would have found success under those circumstances. I would argue that there likely wouldn't have been one.

We will show you in Football 301 each sack, and I think you will see that this was not a 1-on-1 loss that led to the sack; but, rather this was a full and complete overwhelming of the entire OL. There were plays where you see 3 and sometimes 4 of the Vikings front 4 beating their blocks. Even worse, it became such a siege that even the Vikings back-ups Robison and Kennedy were routinely running free at Romo.

A complete and total OL meltdown. And on the heels of the 2007 and 2008 finales where the OL also failed, I am inclined to suggest that the Cowboys need to strongly consider alternatives in the OL in 2010. We can debate Doug Free or Cory Proctor, but the team really needs to figure out a way to upgrade this unit since the last 3 seasons they were undone by this group, despite relative health each time.

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	0	0	0-0	0-0
12	10	48	5-10	5-38
13	3	33	3-33	0-0
21	4	1	4-1	0-0
22	8	35	6-18	2-17
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
WC22	1	1	1-1	0-0
S01	1	0	0-0	1-0
S02	2	-7	0-0	2-(-7)
S11	29	131	6-28	23-103
S12	5	4	0-0	5-4
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	64	246	25-91	39-155

Table Tutorial

Definition of the Personnel Groups, click here .

One last things about the sacks before we dive into the videos; all 6 sacks were in the shotgun. And, now that we have all of the data we need, we see the results in 2008 and 2009 are similar in this fashion - Shotgun sets are not what this team does best.

Shawn, who helps collate our data, sent me this:

Bob,

18 Games

12: 193-1291, 6.69, 5 TD, 1 INT
21: 111-651, 5.87, 4 TD, 1 INT
22: 201-1168, 5.81, 9 TD 0 INT

The very popular and explosive formation of choice?

S11: 340-2038, 5.99, 13 TD, 8 INT

So, if we are to critique the Cowboys offense, we see quite clearly, this team is not good in short yardage, not very good in shotgun and 3 WR, and awfully strong in everything else.

When the Cowboys were balanced, under center, and mixing things up, they marched up and down the field all season long. But, when they became 1-dimensional, they couldn't execute. More research coming, including an effort to figure out why they are so easily sacked in the shotgun, and how many of the sacks allowed were in that set-up.

I know we generally focus on the positive plays on our video breakdowns, but A) we don't have much to choose from since the Cowboys had 1 play over 20 yards and B) the result of the game begs for us to take our knowledge of what we learned and try to see why bad things happened in this playoff exit.

Video Breakdowns:

Thanks, Brian at DC Fanatic.com . He has done a ton for this project this season, and deserves your occasional visit to his site.

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The Play:1Q - 1/10/33 - Jones +8 13



What Happened: 2nd Drive of the game, the Cowboys are determined to run the football. 13 personnel, and if you can't run up the gut with great success, set them up and then bounce it outside. What I liked here was once again the pulling ability of Big Len, as 70 Davis gets out in space and then tosses 52 Greenway 3 yards in the air. Joe Buck gives Greenway credit for the tackle, but I assume that was news to Chad. Effective run that shows the Cowboys can get to the edge against the Vikings. The fake that Phillips helps sell up the middle is what freezes the linebackers and makes them commit inside. I might wonder why this was tried very few times.


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The Play: 1/10/50 Screen to Jones +11



What Happened: 2 plays later, 12 personnel, and another 1st down, where the Cowboys have double WR to the left. This overloads the defense and occupies them in a way that vacates the flat for Jones to get a release that appears uncovered. Once he gets into space, we again see the ability for Felix to make a guy miss. A few of my coaching buddies asked me why we didn't see more of the Cowboys screen game, as the surely had to feel that with the Vikings ears pinned back all day, they would certainly be susceptible to the screen. However, this was the lone success in that department.

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The Play: 2Q - 22 1/10/26 - Pass to Bennett +16



What Happened: OK, the last positive play from the game, a spot where the Cowboys seemed poised to tie the game. "22" Which puts the Vikings in a run state of mind. Then, you get the deep safety, so essentially, we have 51 Leber trying to decide who he wants to focus on. The deeper 80 Bennett or the shallow 34 Anderson. Romo waits for Leber to declare, and then throws it to the other one. Easy execution and a safe throw. We certainly have to wonder why this wasn't run throughout the season more. Especially on 1st down against "22" teams are putting so many in the box that you would think that this would have been easy pickings for Martellus Bennett and Tony Romo. Alas, Bennett finished the year with 159 yards. If it wasn't for Roy Williams, Marty B would have been for more frustrating for Cowboys fans.


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The Play: 3Q - 1/10/24 - Toss to Barber -6



What Happened: Down 17-3, this could possibly be the last nail in the coffin for the Cowboys. They are driving into the deep end of the field, and if they can get a Touchdown here, they will be right back in the game. Now, a few things about what we are looking at here. This is that exact same "22" naked pitch that worked so well in Week 17 and Week 1 - both times going for touchdowns. Watch all 3 plays - they are identical. And each time, the only thing the RB has to do is beat the DE to the edge. He is by himself. It is a naked run, and all of the blockers are selling the play to the opposite side of the field. If he beats the DE to the edge, he may go for a Touchdown - but credit Ray Edwards for his film study. He saw this 2 weeks ago, and he wasn't falling for it. Also, watch Romo in presnap. For 3 days now, everybody has blamed Jason Garrett for the puzzling decision to call that play for Barber, when it is clear that Felix is much quicker and makes more sense for this play. But, I think Romo checked into the play at the line. If he did audible, as I think he did, Garrett is getting blamed for Romo's bet that Barber can beat Edwards to the corner. Big mistake. Drive killer, and game killer. The Cowboys never had a chance after this.

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The Play: 3/10/20 - INT Leber



What Happened: Here is the Romo Interception that demonstrated how out of sorts he was. He had to double pump his throw and then he made a throw he absolutely should not have thrown. But, this is the game in a nut-shell. Cowboys are in max protect, but because Colombo cannot stay in front of Edwards, Romo must step up into Jimmy Kennedy to keep from getting mauled by 91 again. Then. the other thing I want you to see is the odd design of 11 Williams' route. What is Roy supposed to be doing on this route? He attracts nobody, he is not considered for the throw, and it seems like the Cowboys are playing shorthanded with him. This is where his performance hurts the most. 2 or 3 players only in a route, they must all be threats or you have no chance. On this play, Romo has 1 guy in route that is an option 84 Crayton. When he is not open, he either eats another sack or tries to force in the ball. 82 Witten and 23 Choice cannot even consider sliding out into a route. What a mess.

Below, I also want to show you the 6 sacks from Sunday. Usually, these are in a different post, but I wanted to put them here, too, because they were the story of the game. The complete collapse of the pass protections.
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SACKS

Sack #1 - 1Q - 3/14/38 S11 - Edwards



What Happened: This is the end of the 1st drive. On this particular sack, I might blame Romo for trying to wait too long. Easy for me to say, but I think you have to get the ball to Choice in the left flat here and hope he can get you some FG position. But, he tries to stay alive, and the DL closes out on him. Kosier, Adams, and Colombo hold up pretty well here, but Davis gets beat badly by Robison, and Romo must step up quickly. Once he does, Edwards gets off Colombo and hits Romo. The start of the ambush.


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Sack #2 - 2Q - 2/G/8 -S02 - Edwards/Williams



What Happened: Shotgun Empty? Again? How many sacks do we have to give up in Shotgun-Empty before we stop running that package altogether? Anyway, both tackles get beat, and the play is doomed. This is 2nd and goal and the score is just 7-0. The Cowboys execute here, I am sure the game is way different. Instead, they can protect neither flank, and are over-run with no RB protection. This, just 1 play after wasting 1st and Goal with the Wildcat. Talk about not taking advantage of your rare opportunity. This will also be Flozell's 2nd to last play. 3 possessions, all go fairly deep into Minnesota territory = 3 points. Then, your Left Tackle is gone. Church.



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Sack #3 - 2/11/28 - Sack Allen



What Happened: Here, Witten is in his stance late and Jared Allen blows around the corner on him in a real mismatch. How this 1-on-1 happens is a fair question as it sure seems that Doug Free isn't quite sure where he is supposed to be. Also, note the twist stunt on the other side has 96 Robison coming free up the gut. If Allen doesn't get there, Robison would 1-count later. The route is on.


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Sack #4 - 1/10/46 - Edwards Sack last play of half



What Happened: This might be exhibit A as to why you still need Flozell Adams. Just watch Doug Free on this play as Jared Allen puts him on roller skates and look where 68 Free Ends up. Sure, Edwards makes the eventual sack, but this is what Free's issue seems. So susceptable to the bull rush, and at Left Tackle, you better believe they will test your strength on a regular basis. You must be able to drop your anchor. He is quick, but is he strong? Not enough.



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Sack #5 - 3Q - 3/14/28 Sack Greenway S12



What Happened: I want to say this before we break down this play: For my money, Marc Colombo may have been the best member of the OL all season. But, boy, did he struggle. I think he is still injured. This time, 52 Greenway gets the sack, but the play is destroyed again by 91 Edwards, who decides to change things up (perhaps just to keep from being monotonous) and dives inside. Colombo has no chance again, and from there, chaos ensues, and Greenway gets a sack.


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Sack #6 - 4Q - 3/4/47 SACK Kennedy/Williams



What Happened: Minnesota is just toying with the Cowboys by here. 93 Williams fakes he is about to drop into coverage, and then the Cowboys block others. His pause leaves nobody accounting for him, so he then sprints right up the gut and has Romo dead to rights. Jimmy Kennedy cleans up, but again, so many breakdowns on the OL mean that players get the sack, but did not do the work to earn it.

It is over, but boy, what a mess!

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Past Episodes:
Playoffs - Philadelphia Eagles
Week 17 - Philadelphia Eagles
Week 16 - Washington Redskins
Week 15 - New Orleans Saints
Week 14 - San Diego Chargers
Week 13 - New York Giants
Week 12 - Oakland Raiders
Week 11 - Washington Redskins
Week 10 - Green Bay Packers
Week 9 - Philadelphia Eagles
Week 8 - Seattle Seahawks
Week 7 - Atlanta Falcons
Week 5 - Kansas City
Week 4 - Denver
Week 3 – Carolina
Week 2 - New York Giants
Week 1 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Garrett '08

Football 301: Targets and Sacks - Minnesota

Target Distribution:

Targets - Playoff vs Minnesota

Name	Targets	Catches	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Witten	13	10	98	5/0/0
Austin	8	4	34	2/0/0
Bennett	4	3	27	2/0/0
Jones	4	3	22	1/0/0
Crayton	4	2	17	1/0/1
Williams	1	0	0	0/0/0
Anderson	1	0	0	0/0/0
Totals	35	22	198	11/0/1

Table Tutorial

Unreal. 1 pass to Roy Williams. 8 targets for Austin for just 34 yards. What a mess. Here is an interesting number: Romo vs Eagles 23-35, Romo vs Vikings 22-35. Odd, no?

By the way, if you want to see the full regular season totals, They are here , but I didn't want to add playoff games to the totals, lest I throw off comparison numbers.

The Morning After: Vikings 34, Cowboys 3

Thud.

I am always interested in the rationale of fans the day their team exits the playoffs (By the way, I am one of these fans who try to put my feelings into words, so don't think I am looking down at anyone).

Fans who are victims of the excruciating OT loss wish that they would have been blown out because that wouldn't hurt so much. But, then fans who are victims of the blow out wish they would have been beat in the last minute because then they would feel like they are competitive and closer to their goal.

Both sides are just looking for something to make themselves feel better.

But, the facts are these:

1) Losing is gut wrenching in the NFL Playoffs.
2) 11 of the 12 teams will experience this feeling in some way, shape, or form.
3) The other 20 teams in the NFL aspire to switch spots with you.

See, that is the thing about the NFL season; Just when you get things figured out, they all change. The Cowboys own the line of scrimmage, right? 7 days later, they certainly did not.

The Vikings, Saints, and Colts did not finish the season on a roll, right? It appears they rolled pretty well this weekend, and I believe we all got a slight reminder of why all 16 games matter. To get playoff home games and bye weeks, it will require a 16 game body of work that is nearly flawless. And when you achieve that, it will guarantee nothing - but you will be in your building, with your noise, and your fans. And that will greatly beat the alternative.

I was sure this game was so close that there would be one play that would certainly reach legendary status in both cities because it decided the game - and perhaps the destiny of both organizations. I guess I had that one wrong.

This game did not come down to one play. It came down to the Vikings defense blowing up the Cowboys offense in just about every way, shape, and form. The Cowboys did not give the ball away, the Vikings took it. The Cowboys did not make huge mistakes, the Vikings just made plays. They looked like they had a pretty good idea of how to destroy drives with a "Minus Play" as Tony Romo would reference them in the press conference. One minus would sabotage a drive, and that is something we have become quite familiar with over the season. Drive all the way down the field and then a minus turns 7 into 3, or 3 into 0 as quick as it gets. The yards have not been converted into points often enough.

The key match-up of the Vikings DL against the Cowboys OL was a mismatch. Romo was sacked a career-high 6 times and escaped several more with his feet. Obviously, they finally were bit by the injury bug when Flozell left the game with a calf injury (as an aside, for some reason I feel better when my key injured players "look" injured on the sideline - Flo seemed pretty normal over there.) and the OL that was already under siege seemed almost "done for" right there. Ray Edwards was great, Kevin Williams did plenty, and Jared Allen attracted all sorts of attention. Romo was running for his life. He was beat up pretty badly, and when you hit him - or any other QB hard enough (especially from the blind side) he will cough up that ball.

So, because of the pressure, Romo started getting rid of the ball quicker so as to stop getting hit. This led to a 2nd half that completely lacked throws to the Wide Receivers, and a very impotent Cowboys offense.

Meanwhile, the Brett Favre show was certainly on full display. After a 3-and-out to start the game, Favre led the Vikings on 3 straight scoring drives to put the Cowboys in a deep hole, 17-3 in the 2nd Quarter. The theory that was repeated all week (maybe all season) that "Favre will make a mistake at some point" seemed to never happen. I don't recall anything close to an interception and his incredibly efficient play kept the Cowboys defense on the run. It wasn't a number of great plays, and Adrian Peterson certainly did not get off, but the damage was done - slowly, but surely - and by the end the Cowboys had been sliced and diced.

I don't think for a second that the Cowboys are 31 points worse than the Vikings. But, things just snowballed. The Cowboys did not grab the chances early and the Vikings just fed off the momentum in a game that was never in doubt.

And now, here we are. Standing, looking at a pile of rubble again, as another season of Cowboys football smolders. Just 1 day ago, we all thought we were really enjoying this movie, and couldn't wait to watch more.

And then, Thud.

I think the Cowboys' season was successful in some regards. But, surely, when you lose by 31 in a playoff game, we must look in the mirror and ask some difficult questions again. Making the Final 8 is nice, but not near enough. I believe I will let the smoke clear before elaborating on my Wade Phillips views, but obviously, on Saturday it seemed foolish to suggest his job was on the line. But, with that loss now on the ledger, I assume it will at least be considered again with no contract in place for 2010.

More thoughts and observation from the spanking at the Metrodome:

* I assume most everybody felt like I did when Wade waved out the FG team to try a 48 yarder on 4th and 1 on the 2nd drive. There are, of course, a number of reasons why that was a bad idea. First, in the playoffs or any difficult road game where you are an underdog, you must make the absolute most of your chances. I know that I said "Punts are good" on Friday, but it is an altogether different animal when you are at their 30 yard line and facing a 4th and 1. You need to try to take the game by the scruff of the neck. Second, your kicker is Shaun Suisham. This may have snuck by some people, but Wade knows this. He has to know that Suisham shouldn't be trusted for anything longer than a chippy. I am not suggesting that I have a ton of great ideas against the Vikes in short yardage (No, not the pitch right to Barber!) but I certainly am not risking a kick that, if missed, demoralizes the team and gives the Vikes great field position.

* -3. Two other games were worse than -2 in this season of "Romo Friendly" protect-the-ball football. -4 loss to the Giants in week 2 and -3 at Green Bay. Not breaking new ground here, but -3 is almost impossible to overcome. In fact, in the NFL regular season 2009, the record for those -3 or worse is 1-49. Somehow, the Patriots were -3 against the Panthers and still scratched out a win.

* Marc Colombo had no answer for Ray Edwards, and when Flozell left the game, the Cowboys had to give all of the help to Doug Free all of the time. It was the worst case scenario. We have no idea how differently things might have been, but Flozell actually was able to stay in front of Jared Allen awfully well in the first 3 possessions. I wonder how healthy Colombo was, because Edwards is good, but I am pretty sure he isn't that good. If Free would have kept his RT job, I suppose they would have just slid him over to LT if Colombo had to come into the game. But, that is your game. The Cowboys couldn't protect the edges and Romo was running for his life from the very start of the game. The passing game was brought to its knees without hardly any impact from Cowboys WRs or Vikings DBs. Amazing. The pass rush controlled the game.

* The most amazing thing about the Brett Favre aerial attack (starring Sydney Rice): Neither Rice on Sensabaugh's TD nor Rice on Jenkins' TD were an example of poor coverage at all. He dropped the ball right on their hands and the defenders were hip to hip with the receiver. He is a 40 year old QB dropping the ball right on their hands from 40 yards away. We have never seen anything like the 2009 season of Favre.

* But, on that Sensabaugh-allowed TD, what was Terence Newman's role? It sure looked to me like that crucial moment in the SD game where Newman is supposed to get the jam on Vincent Jackson and doesn't which allowed a very big completion. There is nobody else in Newman's zone and yet he pretty much just watched Rice run by him. I am no DB coach, but that seemed very bizarre to me. Equally bizarre might have been how Sensabaugh seemed to have no idea where the ball was when Rice had it right next to him and they both jogged into the endzone for the final 10 yards. Find the ball, son. I would love to know several things about that play.

* Here is my take on the question about "running up the score". Honestly, I had very little issue with it once the Cowboys decided to use all 3 timeouts down 27-3. Prolonging a game that was already determined is essentially "asking for it". I understand Wade Phillips and Keith Brooking and anyone else being angry. It should make you angry that they are scoring again when they don't have to. But, again, I think you risk angering the other sideline when you call all of your timeouts down 24 points, so don't be shocked when they return the favor with their resources, too. Just yesterday, I was reading a story about the Washington Capitals "running up the score" by leaving their best players on the ice for a Power Play up 6-1, and one of the comments left was this: When I was listening to a baseball game this past summer, the idea of “running up the score” arose and I heard probably the best comment about it I ever heard. The announcers said that they were sure the team winning big would agree to stop scoring so many runs, if the losing team agreed to stop trying to come back. If both teams agreed to stop trying and just go through the motions, fine, but otherwise just play baseball. I guess that is exactly how I feel. If you are still doing everything in your power to come back, then they should be allowed to do everything in their power to end the game and force your surrender. And let's not forget the Cowboys were up 34-14 last week, and throwing on 1st down 3 different times. This is the NFL, people. Not your kid's little league game.

* Why is it odd to see Prince at a Football game? Surely, it seems plausible that a man can grow up in the United States and follow football his whole life. Millions of us do. But, it is Prince. Next thing you know we will find out that he won his Fantasy Football League or something crazy like that. There cannot be a very long list of American males that would be more unlikely to see at a NFL game. Seriously. Try to name 3.

* I wonder what the future for Marion Barber is. I really appreciate what he brings to the table, and I think he is quality. But, like Julius Jones before him, it seems like the options (Felix and Choice) are perhaps now better options. The life-span of an NFL RB is shockingly short. That is why it is vital that the Vikings win quickly, because Adrian Peterson's prime may only last 2-3 more years if history is our guide. For every Emmitt Smith, there are 10 Larry Johnsons.

* It seemed clear that Keith Brooking was being picked on by the Vikings in their offensive attack. In the 3rd Vikings drive, they isolated him against Kleinsasser (+14), Peterson (+18), and Taylor (+9). He is clearly an emotional leader, but he also is part of a defense that has many superior parts - so they attack places where they think they can do some damage. And it is no secret that getting Brooking in coverage is a place many teams have tried to attack. The Vikings did it with success.

* Anthony Spencer, Mike Jenkins, DeMarcus Ware, and Jay Ratliff are all young and potentially dominant players on the defense. There is no reason to believe that this defense won't continue to be very, very solid. I think for the first time entering an off-season in years the Cowboys can focus their resources on the offensive line and Wide Receiver in the spring. Not saying the D doesn't have any holes, but I think they are closer than ever.

* Tony Romo's press conference to end the season went much better this year than last. I think he has come a long, long way in the last 12 months in the maturity department. I believe in the kid. He is not perfect, but he is darn good.

I thought the Vikings might win this one, but I certainly didn't see it ending like this. The Cowboys are closer than they have been in years but still awfully far away. I think we are all interested in knowing what is around the next corner.

The offseason begins today. Get to work, front office.

Game Plan Friday: Minnesota Vikings

Fascinating. That is how I would describe what we are all looking at Sunday at "high noon" at the ol Metrodome.

A fascinating study of football from many, many perspectives. Not the least of which is that when looking at these two teams, there are so many similarities at so many spots.

For instance, of all of the teams in the NFC, one team has almost an identical way of running their offense as the Dallas Cowboys. That team, of course, is the Vikings.

They use their run to set up the pass. They use the pass to set up the run. They use the presnap to confuse you and make you commit to one or the other, and then they take that false alarm and use it on you. When going right, both of these teams call plays that are all tied together in perfect harmony. As a brilliant game of chess, everything they do is to set up the next thing.

The running plays are very similar. The beef on the OL is very similar. The play of the efficient QB can also be strikingly similar. And yes, the instincts of the QB when the play breaks down can often times make one think that the two QBs are cut from the same cloth.

Football 301: Decoding Garrett - Eagles Playoffs

I wonder if we will be "Decoding Garrett" in the 2010 season? I assume we will be decoding something because I am wired to look at football in this fashion, whether anyone else finds this compelling or not. But, I wonder if Jason Garrett will still be calling the plays of the Dallas Cowboys? Or, will he be elsewhere when the season starts as someone else's head coach?

For the 4th consecutive week, his offense, under immense pressure, did whatever it wanted to do against an opponent that we believed had some level of quality in its defense.

The Eagles, who had been gashed for 29 carries for 181 yards a week ago went back to the drawing board and tried to figure out what the Cowboys were doing that was giving them such fits.

Well, as we guessed in our Game Plan preview, they can look at all the film in the world and it won't allow them to defeat the laws of physics as beefy OL men grind them down into a fine powder. This week, it was even worse, with 33 carries for 195 yards.

Two games against the hated Eagles, 376 yards on the ground. In case you didn't recognize, the Cowboys are a power-run football team.

But, wait, there is more: The Cowboys are also a passing team that cannot be slowed down it appears. The best way to look at that is the ability to move the chains on a 3rd down.

I have no idea the full list of adjustments after San Diego, but going into the New Orleans game, the Cowboys converted 62 of 161 3rd Downs (38.5%). Since then, they are 29 of 57 for a stunning 50.8%! Almost half of the total number of 3rd Down conversions from the entire first 13 games have been converted in the last 4! Remarkable.

Where are the Cowboys ranked amongst the NFL? For the season, the Cowboys are 14th in 3rd Down conversions. But, 50.8% would lead the NFL for the entire season (Indianapolis led the league at 49.2%).

As you will see on the video below, this comes down to the Cowboys play in the passing game where they can find and expose the match-ups that they want. There is a masterful job going on right now from Garrett to Tony Romo to the OL protecting and the receivers getting open and making a play.

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	0	0	0-0	0-0
12	16	78	11-42	5-26
13	7	26	6-20	1-6
21	3	17	2-14	1-3
22	12	132	8-99	4-33
23	2	2	1-1	1-1
WC22	2	9	2-9	0-0
S01	5	33	0-0	5-33
S02	1	5	1-5	0-0
S11	18	87	2-5	16-82
S12	4	44	0-0	4-44
Knee	1	-1	1-(-1)	0-0
Totals	71	423	33-195	37-228

Table Tutorial

Definition of the Personnel Groups, click here .

And, let us point out the "23" stuff. Of course, 2 plays for 2 yards will not impress the chicks, but let's remember that both of those plays are Touchdowns - a 1-yard pass to Phillips (not Wade, silly) and a 1-yard Choice run.

Football 301: Targets and Sacks - Eagles Playoffs

Target Distribution:

Targets - Playoff vs Philadelphia

Name	Targets	Catches	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Austin	10	7	82	2/1/0
Williams	8	5	59	3/0/0
Witten	5	4	27	1/0/0
Crayton	4	3	34	2/0/0
Jones	2	1	30	1/0/0
Choice	3	1	6	1/0/0
Ogletree	1	1	5	1/0/0
Phillips	1	1	1	0/1/0
Anderson	1	0	0	0/0/0
Totals	35	23	244	11/2/0

Table Tutorial

Interesting numbers this week in that there is nothing gaudy or eye catching. Nobody "went off" if we think Austin's 7 catches for 82 yards is what he does in a normal outing.

Just matter-of-fact, move-the-chains excecution from the offense and its QB.

By the way, if you want to see the full regular season totals, They are here , but I didn't want to add playoff games to the totals, lest I throw off comparison numbers.

The Morning After: Cowboys 34, Eagles 14

0 days.

It has been 0 days since the Dallas Cowboys have won a playoff game. Nobody has a shorter drought. It may have took 4,761 days to get there, but I would say if you are going to win a Wildcard Weekend playoff game, you would want your foe to be the Philadelphia Eagles (especially after 44-6) and you would want to beat them like a drum.

Check. and, Check.

Every Friday, we try to break down the game in terms that will give you some ways to view the game that the national tv guys may not be on top of. This week, it seemed too easy . I suppose that is what happens when you play a team 3 times in one year - things become clear. Things become clear about what they have no answer for. Mismatches that are not going to fix themselves in 6 days time. Styles make fights. And for reasons that now seem all too obvious, the Cowboys new style is impossible for the current Eagles to deal with.

I am sure with an offseason to deal with the pain, the Eagles will address those shortcomings. They will get some valuable injured pieces healthy, and then they will go get some help at safety, linebacker, and offensive line. But, they didn't have time for all of that on Saturday night. They had to bring the same crew back in here that they rode with last Sunday. A team that could not deal with the Cowboys "power run" sets. A team that could not get the Cowboys blocked to allow Donovan McNabb a chance to find his guys. A team that could not scheme a way for DeSean Jackson to get loose. A team that could not stop Tony Romo from taking easy routes all night long and playing catch with wide-open slant routes. And, a team that could not stop a freight train that has been obsessing about this day since 44-6.

From a Cowboys perspective, this was about a team that would not be denied. And to me, that comes back to two guys erasing their legacy. Wade Phillips got a monkey off his back that spans his entire head-coaching career. Whatever you think of his job performance and his personality (I think I have made myself clear over the years), you have to be happy for a guy who stayed the course and kept chipping away to eventually he can field a team that will step up at the moment of truth. His defense has the entire league spooked right now, because they look like a defense that is not going to give you an inch. They are not only stopping you, but they are punishing you physically in the process, too.

And then there is Tony Romo. The bar that he must jump over as a star QB in the NFL will continue to rise. But, he was painted with a certain brush by an awfully lot of people who now have to reconsider what they think of him. And he made that happen by determining that enough was enough. I have written at great length what I think of Romo and what I think he had to do this past off-season. After a long year of being ripped, I believe he has been vindicated. He has put this offense on his shoulders with performance after performance that has been nearly perfect - and they all happened after Dec 1. The challenge was laid out for him - play your best football when your team needs you most - and he has. I think any Cowboys fan has to be proud of the man. He had the weight of the world on his shoulders, and he proved he is fit to play the part.

Yesterday demonstrated a valuable lesson: History does not win playoff games. Quality football teams do. No amount of Andy Reid 1st round victories could stop the Cowboys offense, nor could any playoff failures from other Cowboys teams help the Eagles pass protect.

Next weekend, the Cowboys will face a team with many fewer holes than the Eagles and in a stadium where they have not lost since Brett Favre became their Quarterback. The challenge will be pretty immense, but the beauty of this thing is that there is no telling what the Cowboys do now. They could throw that burden off their back and begin destroying the NFL one team at a time (given that they are 2 wins from the Super Bowl and 3 wins from Lombardi Trophy #6...). Or, they could celebrate beating the Eagles like it was their Super Bowl and go out quietly next week. I don't think any of us have any idea what is next. But, the key here is that there is a "next".

Well done.

And now, with more playoffs on the horizon (seriously!), here are various other notes and observations that should be remembered from an unprecedented 3rd defeat of a team that went 11-5 this season:

* Ken Hamlin put quite a fingerprint on this game. I have to tell you that having exceptional safety play is not something this team has seen for much of this decade, but I wonder if they may have figured it out in 2009. Gerald Sensabaugh and Hamlin are seldom exposed, and more importantly, they seem to make positive plays. Last night, Hamlin was flagged for putting some pretty questionable hits on Brent Celek and Jeremy Maclin. My opinion? Fine with me. I think if you are going to have a dominating defense, occasionally, you just have to let the rest of the league know that there is a chance that you will get your head taken clean off if you go across the middle on us. You have to pick your spots, but I almost felt like Hamlin was putting the rest of the NFC on notice for future dates with some of those kill shots he put out there. And you cannot convince me that he wasn't in Maclin's head as a carry-over from last week.

* Desean Jackson is a remarkable player who will be dangerous for years to come. But, he is a knucklehead. That is why he fell in the draft and that is why so many teams didn't even have them on their draft board. Well, this week, with all of twitter nonsense he might not have helped his cause (although I don't suppose that we know for sure what Twitter has done for providing platforms for people who might not be sure with what to do with said platform), but he surely pushed my buttons last night. The situation: Late 3rd, Cowboys up 34-7, and McNabb throws an interception to Mike Jenkins. Jenkins makes an odd decision (as DBs often do) on his return and while trying to pitch the ball back to Terence Newman, Jackson strips him of the ball and gets it back for the Eagles for one of their bigger gains of the day. But, after the play, here is Jackson trash talking up in the face of Jenkins. I don't mean to be the old man here, but nothing makes me crazier than the trash talker who is on the wrong side of a 4-touchdown margin. That should be grounds for a league suspension, and my memory of the Dave Campo Cowboys who went 15-33 in his 3 years is Darren Hambrick celebrating a big tackle after a 9 yard gain at Baltimore when the Ravens were up 31-0. The true definition of embarrassing.

* Felix Jones rushes for 148 yards and a catch for 30 yards was gigantic. As you know, I have questioned a number of times whether or not he is a "full time back". Well, that remains to be seen, but with Barber hurt yesterday, he was money. His explosiveness is shocking, and he is a true game-breaker from the RB position which is a rare bird in football. So, I guess I still have a hard time seeing him durable enough to be a 300 carry guy, but I think you limit his work over the course of the season and play to his special and rare strengths. That was remarkable stuff.

* We talked about Field Position all season, so let's not lose track of it now. It is so huge to play a team like Philadelphia and to be able to neutralize a huge part of their big play attack with your 2 kickers. David Buehler and Mat McBriar did it again last night. Eagles average start spot was their 20. In the first half, they started at the P10, P5, P17, P20, P20, and P25. Meanwhile, the Cowboys started 8 drives outside their 40 yard line! Keep it up. Percy Harvin can return kicks, too.

* If the Cowboys are going to keep torching everyone on 3rd Down (9-16 again last night) then they are going to keep winning. The 3rd Downs are all out of S11 it seems, and it sure looks like there is nothing they enjoy more than Patrick Crayton in the slot against Joselio Hansen on a simple slant. Pitch and catch, and a game of spreading you out and picking the matchup they like. Hansen is one of several Eagles defensive backs who played a reasonable season but were gobbled up by this Cowboys offensive machine.

* Marc Colombo is back. I was a bit nervous about messing with what was working, but Colombo did very well in his return. Doug Free will reemerge soon enough I am sure, but Colombo is a tone setter for the entire offense. You want him out there stirring everything up like he does.

* This is probably a good time to mention the single most important Replay Challenge in Cowboys history. I thought Wade wasted a challenge, and I am still not terribly sure that wasn't an interception, but talk about a pivotal moment in the game. At the time, the Cowboys are nervous, the Vick to Maclin play just happened, and the very first snap for the offense is a back foot prayer from Romo to Sean Jones in center field. It sure looked like he had control of that, and if the Eagles punch it in the score is 14-7, Eagles, and who knows what happens next. But, Wade got this right, too. You know, I must tell you, Wade is on quite a hot streak. Since that night in the Superdome, I am having trouble finding much to bust his chops about.

* How does it feel to be the last NFC East team standing for a change? I dare say that is the first time since we have gone to 4 divisions in the NFC that you have outlasted the Giants, Eagles, and Redskins.

* I think the shine is off Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown. Especially Brown, who the Cowboys were seeking out with great regularity and going right at him. I think he is serviceable, but nothing better than that. And Samuel? Nice Int Numbers, and he has made some big plays in his career (of course, a dropped Samuel INT cost the Patriots the 2007 Super Bowl, too), but he guesses on routes, he doesn't like to tackle, and Miles Austin had his way with him 2 weeks in a row.

* I hope you had a chance to read the Sports Illustrated feature on the Eagles blitz a few weeks back. If not, check it out. I felt like the Double-A blitz was easier to understand in depth after reading it, and the context it gave me for the game last night was excellent. Here is one passage:

The best way to exploit the Double A Gap is to block it effectively, a difficult proposition says Gruden, but "if you're using it against a CEO-type quarterback, like Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, who understands how to pick up blitzes, you can have problems because you're short of personnel in coverage, and they'll get rid of the ball quickly." Says Trotter, "Teams run quick screens, slants, things like that, because normal pass routes take too long, and the pressure is right on the quarterback."

Quick screens, slants, things like that? Think Jason Garrett and Tony Romo read SI?

* Strike up the annual will McNabb be back conversation. As someone who roots against the Eagles, I hope they send him away. He is quality. And I would love to see them with Kevin Kolb.

* Look, I don't know where this thing is headed, but the combination of Roy Williams making plays, Bobby Carpenter recovering fumbles, and almost no injuries at all, you can see how people are starting to get that feeling.

* I would like to nominate DeMarcus Ware's sack and strip of McNabb late in the 4Q for the "Thing in sport that most resembles a lion running down a wildebeest". What a violent thing of beauty.

Do me a favor: Enjoy this for a few minutes. Nobody takes more grief than Cowboys fans (some of it has been earned, mind you) and you should not get caught up in the Vikings just yet. Be proud of your heroes for 10 minutes, before you start to worry about more. Tony Romo, Jason Witten, DeMarcus Ware, Jay Ratliff, and the rest have never tasted this before. They were told they weren't worthy, and that they will never measure up. Well, guess what. They proved they can put the sword to a hated rival when it matters most.

44-6? Vindicated.

Next?

Game Plan Friday: Philadelphia Eagles, Part 3

(Photo, Courtesy: Sportatorium)

Every week this season, we have provided a very lengthy game preview that looks at every aspect of the game in great detail.

In fact, here are the first two we did in this very match-up: Week 9 At Philadelphia , and then Week 17 vs Philadelphia here .

They cover many scenarios and talking points at great length, so rather than just repeat things that have already been covered, I thought today I would change things up and spend this day-before-the-3rd-meeting listing the reasons why I think the Cowboys have a very good chance at ending their playoff drought.

So, let's get down to business:

This game on Saturday night is one that if I am an Eagles fan, I must rely on 2 things to assure myself that this season is not about to end:

1) - History. History is a strong indicator that in a playoff game, we should always believe in Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid against pretty much any foe the NFC has to offer. One thing that Reid/McNabb have going for them is a very impressive resume that suggests that NFC powers have come and gone through this decade, but the Eagles are always in the mix, and the Eagles always get out of the 1st Round. 10-7 in the playoffs under Reid, and 7-0 in the 1st Round. They don't do this 1-and-done thing.

My counter to that of course would be that the Eagles of our memory banks had players like Brian Dawkins, Jon Runyan, Corey Simon, Jevon Kearse, and then the best DC in football, Jim Johnson, that masterminded the Eagles defense in a way that freaked out QBs from the opening snap. They had an offensive line that could always hold its own. They even had guys like Jeremiah Trotter and Brian Westbrook back in their primes. And the 2009 version has none of those things.

On the other hand, we have the Cowboys being coached by the winningest coach who has never won a playoff game, and a QB who has never stepped up to the plate and delivered at the most important moment. This could be classic coyote vs roadrunner, yet again. I just think it is Tony Romo's time. Time to slay that dragon that has haunted him. He has been too focused and too sharp. He looks too determined.

Nevertheless, if the game tomorrow night comes down to a reading of resumes between Reid/McNabb and Phillips/Romo, then the Cowboys are in big, big trouble.

2) - Puncher's chance. The phrase I have used all week to discuss the fundamental match-up issues that the Eagles have with the Cowboys is the simple explanation that "Styles make fights". It doesn't mean that the Eagles aren't as good or better as a football team than the Cowboys. But, when they are on the same field playing eachother, there are certain things that make a head-to-head match-up a very poor scenario for the Eagles. The Cowboys strengths are the Eagles weaknesses. This is never good, and this is why the scoreboard in the first two meetings looks like it does.

But, there is always a puncher's chance when two good teams are playing eachother. In boxing, when one fighter just doesn't match-up well with another, we anticipate that he will try to get in those one or two dramatic fight-changing punches and erase any sort of disadvantage that there might be. Inside the ring, we have the shocking knock-out. In football, we, of course, have the defensive Pick-6, the special teams play that rocks the game, and most importantly with these Eagles, the home-run, 1 or 2 play drive that strikes like a snake in the weeds. And make no mistake; the Eagles are lethal and dangerous in all of these situations.

There must be no counting of chickens before the game is finished. There can be no "Mission Accomplished" banner on the flight deck until this enemy is vanquished.

Beyond that? I see issues all over the field that give the Eagles fits. In no particular order, here they are:

* The Eagles blitz does not have quite the same effect on Tony Romo that it once did or that it generally does against QBs across the league. Of course, it should be noted that we don't know for sure if A) Romo is much better at handling this legendary challenge, B) if the Eagles blitz is still the legendary challenge it was a few years back when they had all of the pieces and Johnson dialing it up, or C) Both.

We can visit for hours on this discussion of whether or not the Eagles were playing vanilla on Sunday in the regular season finale, but at the root of the discussion must be the following question: Does the blitz work as well against Tony Romo as it once did? In Philadelphia, Romo torched them on 3rd Down blitzes. If you don't believe me, the video is all here for you to see on Football 301 from that week .

My opinion is that the Eagles were taken out of their blitz. If you touch an oven and it burns your hand, you generally stop touching the oven.

That doesn't mean they won't blitz tomorrow night more than ever before. Sean McDermott is under immense pressure in the Philadelphia media and given that he has been on the job for 15 minutes and is following a legend, he will not do what he thinks he should do - he will do what he must do. Blitz and blitz and blitz. So, now, it is final exam time for the Dallas Offense and its QB Tony Romo.

* The Eagles are too undersized to deal with the Cowboys power runs out of "12", "13", and "22". When they Cowboys dedicate themselves to early down power runs, some teams have the ability to stand up to them because of their front 7 beef. The Eagles do not have this. They have been playing all season without a Mic linebacker (they have tried 5 different ones) and they already have undersized DEs and do not qualify as stout just about anywhere. We saw it on Sunday and in Philly. The Cowboys stick Deon Anderson, Martellus Bennett, and or John Phillips out there with Jason Witten, and run for big results (10 carries for 101 yards out of "22" on Sunday) and the Eagles know this. This is another reason they are careful with the early down blitzes, because they know if they are not gap-sound, the Cowboys can gash them for 50.

* The Eagles Defensive Backs are not what we thought they were. Again, I don't dispute the fact that they all make big plays on occasion, but as a group, I don't feel this is anywhere close to what it was in the days of Dawkins and Lito. Now, they have no safeties that scare you, they have Asante Samuel who guesses and gambles a ton (and who Romo and Austin went right at on Sunday), and Sheldon Brown who has been torched by Romo for a double-move TD in each meeting so far this year. What makes matters worse, of course, is that their nickel back Joselio Hansen was picked on by Patrick Crayton in the slot, and there seems to be no answer for Jason Witten - unlike in the days of Dawkins, too. Do you think I believe they screwed up the Brian Dawkins decision?

And on the other side of the ball:

* The Eagles seem to have a hard time with their OL blocking the Cowboys 4 rushers in the nickel. 93-90-72-94 get there quite a bit on their own, so why would the Cowboys blitz anymore than they should just to keep McNabb honest? Rush 4, dedicate a 5th (LB) as a spy, and now you can get man-under, 2 deep, or press coverage with a safety high, or any number of conservative pass coverages. So, now the Cowboys respond by making sure that although the WR screen is always available, the chances of getting DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin behind the defense are growing a bit rare. Oh, there will be a shot or two, and those can change the game, but it seems like the Cowboys have had about 120 snaps in 2 games to prove that they have as good a plan as anyone to limit the Eagles big strike attack.

The key is to make the Eagles drive down the field. If they do, then you force them to convert 3rd and short, which is not a specialty at all. Make them run the ball. Make them march it, and do not let them get behind you. If you do this, we have seen the Eagles get frustrated.

-------------------------------------

Overall, this game gives anyone uneasiness as it pertains to who you are playing and what is at stake.

But, from a strategic football standpoint, the Cowboys seem to have a distinct advantage. Add to this the idea they are playing at home, and the idea that this game has so much riding on it - not just the 2009 season, but full career legacies in some cases - I just don't think the Cowboys let this one get away.

But, a giant punt return here or a 45-yard pass interference there, and obviously, we know that this thing can turn on a dime.

Expect some moments where you may reach for the Pepto Bismol, but I think your drought is about to end at 4,761 days. I really do.

Cowboys 27, Eagles 21

Past Issues:

Philadelphia Eagles Game Plan

Washington Redskins Game Plan

New Orleans Saints Game Plan

San Diego Chargers Game Plan

New York Giants Game Plan

Oakland Raiders Game Plan

Washington Redskins Game Plan

Green Bay Packers Game Plan

Eagles Game Plan

Seattle Seahawks Game Plan

Atlanta Falcons Game Plan

Kansas City Game Plan

Denver Game Plan

Carolina Game Plan

Giants Game Plan

Tampa Bay Game Plan

Football 301: Decoding Garrett - Week 17

The Final regular season 301 breakdown of the year. We now have full season data that I will work off of for the entire off-season in that way that I do, but if you would like your own copy of my spreadsheet, I will be happy to email it to you, or you can simply click on this link and save it yourself.

On Sunday, the Cowboys controlled the game with their offense. Another performance that we could only suggest was spot on. Look at the power run game. I don't just make this stuff up for arguments. The fact remains that in normal down and distance, the Cowboys run the ball with great results. On Sunday, 10 rushes out of "22" personnel, and the final damage was 10 for 101 yards. 10 yards a carry? In the NFL?

For the season, the Cowboys ran out of "22" 140 times for 812 yards or 5.80 yards per carry, despite being 77% run out of that look. That means the defense knows you are running it, and still coughing up 5.8 per snap. This is easily the Cowboys most productive run look, with no other package getting more than 321 yards this season. That was "12" personnel, which had but 4.28 yards per carry.

5.8 for "22", 4.3 for "12" - and there you see why Deon Anderson will always have a job here. FB instead of a WR is the only difference between those 2 looks.


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	2	1-2	0-0
12	8	51	4-14	4-37
13	8	22	6-13	2-9
21	5	42	4-17	1-25
22	12	115	10-101	2-14
31	0	0	0-0	0-0
WC22	0	0	0-0	0-0
S21	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	3	17	0-0	3-17
S11	18	172	4-34	14-138
S12	9	50	0-0	9-50
Knee	3	-3	3-(-3)	9-50
Totals	67	469	32-179	35-290

Table Tutorial

Definition of the Personnel Groups, click here .

One statistical observation about the shotgun package would be this: Since the Washington Home game, S12 has been run 57 times, and 56 of them were passes (98.2%). S11 136 snaps, 22 runs/114 passes - (83% passes). This seems odd, of course - if you insert Martellus for Crayton when you go to S12 instead of S11, you think that would give you more of a running posture. Instead, they are 98% pass with Martellus (in shotgun) and 83% pass with 3 WR in S11. Odd. I wonder if Garrett is aware of this pattern. I also think Bennett's pass catching ability is more noteable considering this evidence.

Football 301: Targets and Sacks - Week 17

Let's take a look at another pretty masterful job by the offense and Tony Romo in the regular season finale against the Eagles. If he can do it again, the Cowboys will get themselves a coveted playoff victory.

Target Distribution:

Targets - Week 17 vs Philadelphia

Name	Targets	Catches	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Austin	8	7	90	4/0/0
Witten	7	6	76	3/1/0
Crayton	6	4	99	3/1/1
Jones	3	3	3	1/0/0
Phillips	2	2	14	0/0/0
Ogletree	1	1	15	1/0/0
Barber	4	1	14	1/0/0
Williams	1	0	0	0/0/0
Bennett	1	0	0	0/0/0
Totals	33	24	311	13/2/1

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We see it every week, so it has stopped being a surprise on any level, but Miles Austin and Jason Witten continue to secure the spots as the #1 and #2 or the #2 and #1. Either way, these are the two that make this whole thing work, and can be counted upon for production regardless of the opponent. They are the typical "they are going to do what they do" guys who are so valuable around the league.

This week, they were joined by who we surely feel was the #2 WR for much of the season, Patrick Crayton. I know that Roy Williams TD numbers and catch numbers are not that far apart from Crayton's, but I can name many of Crayton's big plays. They were clutch and they were needed. Roy seems like the numbers he did put up were often put up with no real impact. Sorry, but it is true.

Season Target Distribution To Date:

Name	Targets	Catches	%	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Witten	124	94	76%	1030	46/2/3
Austin	124	81	65%	1320	43/11/2
Williams	86	38	44%	596	21/7/1
Crayton	67	37	54%	622	20/5/2
Barber	36	26	72%	222	11/0/0
Bennett	30	15	50%	159	8/0/0
Choice	22	15	68%	132	7/0/0
Jones	22	19	86%	112	5/0/0
Hurd	12	7	58%	132	3/1/1
Phillips	9	6	67%	62	3/0/0
Ogletree	8	7	87%	96	5/0/0
Anderson	3	1	33%	5	0/0/
Totals	543	347	64%	4483	178/26/9

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The Morning After: Cowboys 24, Eagles 0

2009 NFC East Division Champions.

How many thought this was a likely result to the regular season when the Giants were running away with the division at 5-0? Or when the Cowboys lost in Denver to drop to 2-2, and needed overtime at Arrowhead to keep from going 2-3? But, 2 1/2 months later, the Cowboys are 11-5 and have won the division.

Good for them. And, I mean that. The Wade Phillips' Cowboys have been painted with the same brush since that 2007 finale against the Giants - all sizzle, no steak. But, this 2009 crew swore they were a different animal. Through subtractions and maturation, they claimed that the leadership had shifted, and that because of that, this is not the same ol' Wade Phillips-led Cowboys.

This group was different. This group would not crumble at the moment of truth, they said. But, I was skeptical when they started slow in September. I was even more skeptical when they started December with 2 straight typical close-but-no-cigar losses. At 8-5, the playoffs were in great doubt yet again. And the Divisional crown seemed like it had floated away.

But, then something changed with this team. Some suggest it was DeMarcus Ware's injury against the Chargers. Others say it was Tashard Choice addressing the team the next day. Personally, I don't have a clue what happened, but the end result to me is watching a Cowboys team that doesn't seem to play like a team that keeps waiting for something bad to happen anymore.

Surely, you know what I am talking about. This team, for the better part of 3 seasons, looked like a team that was under such severe pressure - be it real or imagined - that they were like the kid at the recital that could play the song in practice perfectly, but when the show started he felt something warm running down his leg. Their mental block, perhaps best demonstrated by their QB, was that of a team that was afraid to fail - rather than a team that was ready to win.

Now, if they were a reflection of their QB, I would imagine that we can all understand why he was a mental wreck. Being the QB of the Dallas Cowboys is tough under any scenario. Then, the last two playoff exits from a team riding a 4,755-day drought between playoff wins were either fully blamed on him, or merely the lion's share of the blame was heaped on the undrafted QB. Then, between a high profile "private" life and a high profile spat with Terrell Owens, suddenly the kid is an absolute sports-talk lightning rod from sea to shining sea.

And the bigger the situation became, the more everything came crashing down on his head, culminating in his confusing post-game address to his public following the Eagles 44-6 thrashing of the Cowboys at the end of the 2008 campaign.

He went into hiding, and before we saw much of him again, he had shed both the high profile romance and the unwanted alpha male in his huddle. So would his 2009 be different?

The Regular season sure was. Career high in QB Rating, Yards, and most importantly, both the fewest interceptions and the fewest fumbles of any season in his career. By a huge margin. He looks composed, calm, and in control. And, he plays like it. And whether this made the team click gradually - as if they saw him trying to carry them during those first 2 losses in December - or if something else triggered this perfect December storm, I don't know. But, the team showed up in New Orleans like a new team. A team that those of us who watch this team closely didn't recognize. They were a team that was playing like they don't give a flip. They are tired of playing scared and nervous and "not to lose". They are done doing that. And what we have seen the last 3 weeks is a team that is going for it. They are playing to win. They are playing with confidence and dare I say just a bit of swagger.

Don't ask me how they got here. But, try to stay as long as you can.

The results of Sunday's dismantling of the 24-0 win against the Eagles will not be fully known until next week's rematch is played. The win seemed dominating and dangerously easy in some regards. But, much like any other details of this season, any success is attached to the stated mission of winning in the playoffs, ending the 13 season drought, and thereby detaching themselves from the '07 and '08 Cowboys teams that did not achieve. A win of the division was great, shouldn't be marginalized, and it made you feel better about last year's week 17 failure, but now what?

And that is why this edition of the "Morning After" may seem a bit more of a "state of the union" address rather than a breakdown of the win. I think most of us feel like the Cowboys-Eagles game is only at halftime, with a week between halves - and the first half score doesn't matter.

I loved the domination. I loved the determination. And yes, I even enjoyed the Cowboys leaving Romo out there and throwing for more. Sure, maybe they should have taken him out when it was 17-0. But that is playing with caution and concern. This team has tried cautious and concerned, and it hasn't work. Now, it is playing with disregard for caution, and I dare say that these last 3 weeks now have me wondering what this thing could turn into.

They have self-belief. A direct reflection of the maturity of their QB. Now, let's see if he is ready to break on through to that other side of playoff accomplishment.

How about some observations from the 2nd consecutive shutout against a divisional foe:

* 1st Drive Touchdowns are all part of this Cowboys transformation. I don't quite know why things are clicking, but you cannot underestimate the effect of taking the opening kickoff, driving 80 yards, and scoring 7. In the New Orleans and Washington games, they did not get the ball first, but in all 3 games, after each team enjoyed the ball the Cowboys had 21 points, and the opponents had 0 - with just 1 solitary 1st down. They are ready to play when the game begins. It changes everything.

* 9 times this season, Tony Romo had a QB rating of over 100. Including, 5 of his last 6 games this season. We detailed at the start of December how he has his worst numbers in the biggest month. We can no longer say that. His last 6 games, his ratings were, in order: 121.2, 112.1, 111.7, 104.0, 86.7, and 106.4. That more than qualifies as saving his best for last.

* That Touchdown run from Felix Jones demonstrates why so many Cowboys fans go crazy over him. I know that I have painted myself as a bit of a pessimist on the Felix front, based solely on the idea that I have a very hard time projecting him as a #1 RB if he cannot take the beating. But, with his workload slowly increasing, I must concede that we are making progress in that regard. Anyway, the TD was that same Power 35 play they have run to the right again and again. Kosier pulls and kicks out, the 2 TEs cave in, and we have big success running right. But, a few times this season, they will run that play, except pitch it left when the entire play is running right to see if the LBs are keying off the blockers instead of watching the ball. We saw it work to perfection, as he only had 1 or 2 guys to beat (with help from Witten) and his speed did the rest. More on that play in Football 301 on Tuesday.

* Field Position is important as usual. Let's check the Eagles starting field position for their first 9 drives: P20, P14, P19, P20, P20, P12, P20, P20, P20. Tough to score points when your shortest field is 80 yards. Full marks to Mr Buehler and Mr McBriar for their fine work once again.

* No, I do not believe for a second that the Eagles were "playing vanilla" or holding things back. Look, they had a chance at the #2 seed and a bye week. If they were making decisions based on the idea that they are about to drop to the #6 seed, then they have no business in the playoffs anyway. Now, if your point is that they called off the dogs at 17-0 and showed nothing in the 2nd half, I will buy that. But that 1st half performance was not because the Eagles were trying to hide things. They just got their butt beat.

* Mike Jenkins is a pro bowler, whether he is invited or not. I apologize for having ever doubted his Football IQ. He is a very intelligent, competitive CB who the Cowboys are lucky to have. I am quite leery of Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin being held down a 3rd time, but so far, whatever Wade is doing is giving the Eagles absolute fits.

* The fact that the Cowboys passed for an all-time team record 4,483 yards in 2009 should tell you once and for all that the Cowboys do not miss Terrell Owens statistically. And the fact that they are 11-5 and seem to like each-other should tell you once and for all they do not miss Terrell Owens emotionally, either.

* Slant passes to Patrick Crayton that go for 30 yards are both wonderful and suspicious with their ease. How did that keep happening?

* With the exception of the Brent Celek show and Asante Samuel guessing right once, the key players on that Eagles roster were collectively very quiet. Do not make the mistake of expecting to see that happen again on Saturday night. I expect they will get their act together and offer a far more abrasive stand when these teams meet again. But as far as this business of it being impossible to beat a team 3 times in a season, my numbers indicate that there have been 19 such instances in NFL History, and in fact, the team going for the 3-game sweep is actually 12-7. Which would suggest a win rate of 63%, and proving that it is far from impossible. Of course, the Cowboys are 0-2 in such instances. So....

* Take this for what it is worth, which isn't much, but I do not particularly care for putting on "Division Champs" shirts and hats as the game ends, and then go across and shake hands with Andy Reid, who you have to play again next week, with your hat on. It seems like A) something that doesn't require much celebration and B) it could be interpreted by Philadelphia as bulletin board material. Again, not the biggest issue in the world, but since I have accused the Cowboys of over-celebrations and getting satisfied with themselves quite easily, it did strike a small nerve last night.

* The Cowboys had 40:23 minutes of possession. They also had 474 yards of total offense. The runners combined for 32 carries for 179 yards, and a QB who threw for 311 yards. To suggest that the offense had great success is fair. Troy Aikman suggested that the Eagles will try some different things next week. I think they better.

* Four more sacks, with 2 from Anthony Spencer. No matter how much pressure you get, it still looks like you need more. Donovan McNabb always seems like he is one throw from really hurting you, and the Eagles have to feel like they left plenty of points on the field.

* Who have you given up on more? Roy Williams or Martellus Bennett? You just can't predict this stuff in training camp, can you?

So here we go. Now we can spend the next several days breaking these two teams down further. Saturday Night cannot get here soon enough. The Cowboys have come a long, long ways. But for Wade Phillips, Tony Romo, and this entire Cowboys team, a playoff win is badly needed. This can change their legacy. To feel good about Cowboys football, it must start with ending that drought of 1996. Until they do, they will be painted with the same brush that all the Cowboys have been painted with in the "post-triplets" era. But, bouncing the Eagles would demonstrate progress and change. Wade would no longer be the winningest coach who has never won a playoff game (and he likely keeps his job) and Romo would then have as many playoff wins as a guy like Drew Brees (1!).

To say it another way, 11-5 is nice. A division title is nicer. But, to feel good about the direction the Dallas Cowboys are headed, they need at least one more victory this season.

Saturday Night.