Showing posts with label Stars 2010. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stars 2010. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Bag of Pucks - March 12 - Modano, Peverley, and Playoff Runs Past

I had a special blog planned for this week as this is the approximate "1 month to go" landmark of the season.  I will get to that in a moment, but as you may be aware, several things have happened in the last week or so that have demanded some attention.

Then, I will get to my preplanned agenda.

MODANO NIGHT:  There is no question the high point of the Stars season happened on Saturday night at the jam packed American Airlines Center as the greatest hockey player in the history of the franchise was wonderfully honored.  I thought the number of wet eyes on the evening during the ceremony says all you need to say, but allow me a few additional thoughts.  

Those of us who fell in love with the franchise in the glory days of the 1990s and then stayed in love through the embarrassing days of bankruptcy and organizational neglect have seen our share of great times and poor times from the Dallas Stars.  Unfortunately, the great times are getting smaller in the rearview mirror and the poor times have been more recent.  That is why this whole season and this night were so wonderful on so many levels.  

The organization could not have strung together a better ceremony that captured the essence of its greatest player and sent shivers down the spine of so many of us who witnessed it.  The people on hand to honor him included most of the 1999 Cup team, and many dignitaries who played a role in his career.  There were videos made including the one below which properly captures in a bit over 4 minutes how magnificent he was.  I particularly claim 3:55-4:10 as my favorite stretch with his patented "skate in, fake backhand, slam on the brakes, finish forehand (as the goalie slides helplessly away)" move that I have hardly seen since he has left the game.  



The night was magnificent.  And as a fan, media guy, and ticket holder, I was proud to be a witness to it all.  Thankfully, the hockey that followed the ceremony was equally wonderful with a gritty and gutty 3rd period comeback that included the debut of new goaltender Tim Thomas after Kari Lehtonen was lost to a concussion, another magical night from Tyler Seguin, and a breakaway winner from Erik Cole that brought the house down in delirium.  It is a night we won't soon forget.

PEVERLEY COLLAPSES:  Unfortunately, memorable nights sometimes happen for all the wrong reasons.  And early in the 1st period of Monday's game, when Rich Peverley collapsed on the bench, the entire relative importance of another playoff push was put on hold as one player's life was at stake.  Amazingly, the medical staff was on guard and ready for such an incident, and their swift attention is being credited with the saving of Peverley's life.  Peverley has a bit of a history of heart irregularities, and rather then rehashing his medical history from a standpoint of someone who doesn't understand most of the details, I would just say that the profound impact of this event was felt by all who witnessed it.  

He is a key member of this team, but I imagine his family would say he is much more of a key member of that team and with this incident I rather doubt we will see him back on the ice anytime soon - if ever.  These athletes have been given incredible gifts to be able to make these games their life's work, but sometimes, there is a bit of a flaw in the machine and to risk your health and well-being to chase a Stanley Cup or a paycheck is not worth it.  I won't pretend to understand his desires, nor the sacrifices he made to get to the NHL, but as an observer with very little of the information, I would be hesitant as an organization to authorize him risking his life any further after several red flags this season that would indicate that perhaps his heart cannot sustain the absurd work load that hockey places on it.  We often use trite sayings that suggest we would trade the balance of our life for a championship, but I imagine we all know deep down inside that is a bluff that won't be called.  
Thank goodness he lived through the incident and the game was cancelled.  However, the damage was felt by witnesses, including young team-mate Alex Chiasson who had some level of post-event trauma and did not travel to St Louis as he was reportedly in some state of distress and shock.  Many other team-mates dragged their bodies onto the plane as the show must go on, but seemed in no shape to play.  The entire incident appeared to be a draining and exhausting ordeal that will linger for quite a while, one would think.  

All the credit in the world, again, to the organization for the way this was handled.  They employ and train medical professionals for this once in a lifetime incident that can happen without warning.  It is the ultimate "just in case" plan, and in this situation, they saved his life.  It was a real tragic situation that was averted and the relief that has been felt league wide is immeasurable.  I was very impressed with the way the situation was handled from the doctors and trainers, to coach Lindy Ruff, all the way to Ralph and Razor.  

BOUNCE BACK IN ST LOUIS:  I cannot stress how vital every point is going to be.  The Stars are still in front in the race for 8th, but the margins are so thin.  And, in case you haven't noticed, April 13th, the team will play the final game in Phoenix.  Phoenix, of course, is the team the Stars are battling for the final spot in the playoffs.  Let's avoid that being a play-in game, shall we?

With that in mind, playing arguably the best team in the sport at their place within 24 hours of Peverley's situation with Chiasson also unavailable seemed a very evil thing to ask the Stars to respond to on such short notice.  But, they did.  And they scrapped and clawed to a wonderful team win with Tim Thomas doing plenty of heavy lifting and Jamie Benn scoring the OT winner against a team that they may very well play in the playoffs if they are lucky enough to attend.  Those 2 points may come in very useful and nobody would have blamed the Stars a bit had they mailed in that effort.  

Instead, they showed tremendous character once again that they don't wish to be denied in 2014.  

==========

With that in mind, allow me to get to my plans for this week.  It has been said of the Stars that they are stuck in Groundhog Day and repeat the seasons over and over since 2008.  Put a team together, stumble, play well enough to raise hopes, and then crash before the finish line and miss the playoffs. 

Rinse.  Repeat.

So, I wanted to look carefully at the last 5 seasons that have robbed us of playoff hockey after 12 of the first 14 seasons in Dallas did have playoffs and often deep playoff runs.  To make all things equal, I basically broke down the final month of each of the last 5 years and for sake of continuity, I laid them all over the premise that the season ends about April 15.  Sometimes a bit earlier and sometimes a bit later (lockout!), but again, for continuity, I took the 5 years and laid the last 5 weeks over one another to see the trends.

I also tried to make a fancy graphic for you (below) to see the 5 years.  The value of "0" is the final playoff spot, so look at each year and see how close it was to "0" to see how close they were to the playoffs as the season's were expiring.  You will notice quickly that only briefly did any of the years spend time in the positive numbers (playoff positions), and the majority of the year they were firmly planted in negative numbers (the 9th seed or below).
I have written a summary of each season's final month below, but the result of the experiment is that with the exception of the 2012 team, this squad has always been about the 9th or 10th seed in a league where the 8 best get in.  Are they chokers?  No.  That means you are good enough and just can't see it through.  Are they teases?  Maybe.  They tease you that they might be good enough but cannot sustain it for all 82 games against the competition.  One word of warning is that we are 65 games into the season and the issues have usually happened after Game 70.  So, while I believe this team is the best of the bunch and they will make the post-season, they have been able to play 70 games very well in the past.  But, the final dozen games have been where the good teams have left Dallas in the dust.

2008-09:  This year is best known for being the year that everything the Stars worked so hard to build with their 2008 Western Conference Finals run and really over a decade of quality hockey was blown up by the signing of Sean Avery.  I am sure that is hyperbole, but I am not sure to what extent.  This was the year that they started with 6 wins in their first 20 games, and then dumped Avery and the final 3 and 3/4 years of his 4 year deal in Calgary and then played about 3.5 months of very impressive hockey.  Unfortunately, during that season they also lost their captain and playoff hero Brenden Morrow to a severe ACL injury to his knee and missed almost the entire year and top scorer Brad Richards broke his wrist, missed a large amount of time, returned, and then in the very same game of his return he broke his other hand.  It just wasn't there year.  As shown by the green line above, on March 14 in Game 69, the Stars won their 2nd consecutive game, which sadly turned out to be the last time they would win 2 in a row.  They finished on a 3-7-3 slide and the horrific year cost the General Manager duo of Brett Hull and Les Jackson their jobs, which then cost Dave Tippett his job.

2009-10:  The first season of Marc Crawford and Joe Nieuwendyk will perhaps be best remembered for the end of Mike Modano's run in Dallas (and Marty Turco and Jere Lehtinen) and the oddity of finishing the season with that bit of drama which momentarily allowed us all to smile for a moment about the past and what a treat it was to watch #9 and #26 for so long.  But, the season also had the disgusting attribute of being the only team in the entire NHL that had never won 3 consecutive games for the entire year.  It was really quite brutal.  Modano spent quite a few games injured with a broken rib and Mike Ribeiro had a significant throat injury in New York that took him out for a month.  But, make no mistake, this team was just not very good at hockey and finished a long ways out and really never threatened at any time to make the playoffs.  As the purple line shows, they just were not in the mix.

2010-11:  This one was easily the year that there is no way to sugarcoat the idea that they choked.  Largely, because they did (see gold line).  They spent almost all of the year in 1st place and as of Jan 20 was considered one of the best team's in the league with a 29-13-5 record.  But, with the looming issue of Brad Richards' expiring contract and concussion as well as a blue-line that was falling apart the Stars would go on a huge 2-11-1 run where they then had to decide how to save their season.  Joe Nieuwendyk then pulled the trigger on a huge trade of James Neal and Matt Niskanen for Alex Goligoski to attempt to jump start the roster.  Meanwhile the concussion and Richards' no trade clause forced the team to hold their expiring asset until the end, knowing he wasn't going to be kept in the summer with bankruptcy freezing all spending.  The trade seemed to help them find something momentarily, but a 6-game losing streak in late March put them from in the playoffs to needing a prayer with 5 games to play.  On April 2, they were 6 points back with 5 games left, and seemed all but eliminated.  But, they won 4 straight and then needed help on the final day of the season from a Detroit team with no incentive to beat Chicago in Chicago with everything on the line.  They did.  So, playing Minnesota in St Paul against a Wild team that has been eliminated and not fielding a full lineup, the Stars suffered the ultimate humiliation of being eliminate on a winning goal by former Stars prospect Antii Miettinen.  In a win-and-you're-in game, the Stars lost to a bad team in a game that Marc Crawford would pay for with his job, despite the Stars finishing with 95 points (tied a record for most points to miss the playoffs ever).

2011-12:  So, Brad Richards is gone and so is Crawford.  In his place is new coach Glen Gulatzan and a host of low cost free agents like Michael Ryder, Vern Fiddler, and Sheldon Souray, and even Eric Nystrom who had to be signed to get the Stars to the salary floor in the league.  The best news of all, though, was that Tom Hicks officially handed the keys over to a new, optimistic, and not-broke Stars owner in Tom Gagliardi.  Again, though, this version of the squad - that came to be known as the "pesky Stars" battled their tails off all season long and had a solid month from mid-Feb to mid-March where they mowed through everyone and were in fantastic shape, even though they played without Jamie Benn for a few weeks after he suffered a skate laceration.  But, 70 games in, the Stars held the 3 seed and had a 4-point lead in their division over everyone.  It was a remarkable season, especially considering the fact that they had one of the worst power plays in the history of the sport both in chances and in conversion rates, while stubbornly keeping Jamie Benn off of the #1 power play unit for the year.  However, as the brown line above indicates, the Stars went from 5 points up to 8 points back in just 12 games where they finished the season falling on their face with a 3-9 crash and burn.  And nearly every single game down the stretch was with Kari Lehtonen looking tired between the pipes.

2012-13: And finally, year 5 of the march through the wilderness was the 48 game lockout-shortened season last year that started with trading away Mike Ribeiro and Steve Ott the summer before and trying to build the team around Jamie Benn who started the year with a contract holdout.  That eventually got worked out, and he would join a team that was very young with rookies everywhere and very old with 40 year old signees Ray Whitney and Jaromir Jagr.  It was a very bizarre year where you could sense it was Nieuwendyk's last year if they didn't make the playoffs (making it also Gulatzan's last year, too) and yet to his credit, the GM made many trades that all seemed to have an eye to the future.  So, as Jagr, Brenden Morrow, Derek Roy, and Michael Ryder were all being dealt away for pieces on this team, the squad kept playing well to a point where they were just 2 points back of the 8 seed (Columbus) with 5 games to play.  Unfortunately, they lost each of the final 5 and finished 8 points back and thus ended the tenures of Joe Nieuwendyk (4 seasons, 0 playoffs, 1 bankruptcy) and Glen Gulatzan.  The final run of 1-6 in the final 7 certainly looked like a collapse, albeit perhaps not as bad as 2011 or 2012.

So, is the 2013-14 team better?  Will it end the drought?

I think so, but perils do wait ahead.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Modano's Amazing Weekend



I have another confession to make....

So, about 6 months ago, I planned one of the things that I love to do - a sports weekend with the boys. Now, it is a bit more than a sports weekend - we leave Thursday and get back Monday night, but it is not too out of the ordinary. Except that the trip was to go to England and watch a few English Soccer games because that is how I roll.

It is an awesome trip (aside from sitting in an airplane for a total of 23 hours) and I now completed my 4th England journey - with another already in the planning stages for 2012.

But, my timing....wow. Let me explain. 6 months ago, my objective was to pick a weekend in April that was unaffected by the NHL playoffs (and the Stars games in the playoffs, right?) and I also wanted to spend Easter with the family. So, as you can see, this left one weekend. April 8-11.

Yes, it is Masters weekend, but with the time change, the Masters would be easy to watch in the hotel room at night. The only thing I was risking to miss was the final 2 games of the regular season. But, those would just be tune ups for the playoffs - and maybe the top regulars would be rested before the playoffs started.

Oops.

Obviously, during those 6 months, it became sadly obvious that the Stars wouldn't be in the playoffs. Simultaneously, it also became rather clear that we were possibly on the verge of the Mike Modano retirement.

I had no idea what I was missing. I also justified it that I have been lucky enough to see 500+ Mike Modano games in person since 1998. This wouldn't be a big deal, right?

Oh man. I sat in my office on Tuesday morning, upon my return, and watched Thursday's game against the Ducks - what will forever be known as "Mike Modano Night".

I really screwed up, didn't I?

The electricity that night was shocking. The plot twists were perfect. The result was enough to be right off a script. 5 days later, I had the tear ducts activate a bit as I am sure all of you had a twitch or two on Thursday night.

I don't want the Mike Modano era to end. I have talked myself into the idea of him coming back for a reasonable price. I do hope it happens. On the other hand, the sending off of the weekend is such that it can not be duplicated. It perhaps SHOULD end this way.

I have no regrets about having a great weekend, but doggone, I should have been at the AAC on Thursday night. I want a do-over.

Wednesday, April 07, 2010

This Is It?


Well, here we are. 1 more home game and 1 more road game and this could be it.

Man, I hate goodbyes. Especially when it might be for Mike Modano.

I have tried to talk myself into this continuing next season. I mean, after all, shouldn't an icon of a franchise be able to set his own exit strategy?

Not so much. Not in this world of sports where teams must sell their fans on the future as well as the past.

I love #9. I am a huge fan of every thing he did here, and doggone, he did plenty.

You can go in a number of directions. His many plays in the playoffs that saved the day and were amazing. His skate in on the goalie, slam on the brakes, and slam the puck home as the goalie slides to the side.

I also remember many other moments. Ruslan Salei sending Modano into the boards at Reunion Arena and leaving Modano motionless on the ice. Modano, countless other times, skating frustrated back to the bench after being tugged down with no call.

And like everyone else, I so enjoyed seeing him in full flight with the jersey flapping in the wind behind him.

Mike was not only this franchise's best - by a mile - but he was the United States' finest. As one who appreciates my "Team USA" hockey, I cannot forget the fact that he rose to the top of that group as well.

As I have said a dozen times, Mike Modano was perfect for a city like Dallas. Maybe there were better players, but there wasn't anyone more perfect for selling Texas on this game.

He was American. He was good looking (so they tell me). He was the best player on the ice - even if you were watching your first hockey game, you could tell he was the best player and surely the most electrifying.

I know everyone with a keyboard is going to write about Mike Modano in the next little while. But, I wanted to offer my full respect to the man's great contribution to this franchise this week.

Think about it. We all feel like Dallas is the exception to the rule when it comes to the NHL in the sun belt. In many of the cities, it has only been an unqualified success in years where those teams win the Stanley Cup. But in Dallas, the Stars have generally been well supported and followed. I submit to you that is a result of the instant magnetic force that Mike Modano and some of his friends had on the city.

Many franchises did not become one with their cities. I am pretty sure that those teams did not have an iconic figure, either. Some teams get lucky to get a Sakic, Yzerman, or Modano. If they do, they are smart enough to lock him up for his full career. And then they build him a statue, retire his number, and thank the hockey gods that it worked out.

He wasn't just a great player in Dallas. He is hockey in Dallas. And, there may not be a strong hockey franchise in Dallas if not for #9.

Which brings us to this summer. Do the Stars want Mike Modano back? Does Mike Modano want to still play in the NHL? Would he consider playing elsewhere if the Stars move on? Might this be a premature goodbye discussion altogether and #9 still skates with the Stars in 2010-11?

I hope so. But, the disappointments of the last 24 months might suggest a full reboot. And that might mean turning the page, even on a franchise player.

Just in case this is it, we all need to be prepared.

Mike, you are and always have been money. Thanks for the decades of awesome-ness. And if this is it, I hope 18,532 send you off with a proper ovation.

Saturday, April 03, 2010

3 In a Row? Not This Year.


A very nice week for the Stars with a spanking of the Sharks and Oilers on home ice in the last few days. Rather than looking a gift horse in the mouth, let's just enjoy a 2 game winning streak, right?

Surely, the most amazing and disappointing statistical fun fact to come out of this season is that our Dallas Stars have not strung together a 3 game winning streak this season. In the new NHL, where every game has a winner, it is almost impossible to navigate through 82 games and never put together 3 in a row. How do I know? All 29 teams have done it - most have done it several times. 19 teams did it in October alone.

The 29th team to do it this year is the hapless Toronto Maple Leafs. They needed until March to accomplish 3 wins in a row. Then, they did it twice in March alone!

I absolutely couldn't believe this was true. So, this morning, a day where the Stars could finally put this dubious fact to bed with a win in St Louis, I looked at every team's schedule.

Here is what I found - I have listed the first 3 game win streak for each team in hockey this season. They are listed in the order they did it:

Calgary: 10/1, 10/3, 10/6
Philadelphia: 10/2, 10/3, 10/6
NY Rangers: 10/3, 10/5, 10/8
Ottawa: 10/6, 10/8. 10/10
Los Angeles: 10/6, 10/8. 10/10
Pittsburgh: 10/8, 10/10, 10/12
New Jersey: 10/8, 10/10, 10/12
Buffalo: 10/8, 10/10, 10/13
Chicago: 10/10, 10/12, 10/14
Colorado: 10/12, 10/13, 10/15
Phoenix: 10/12, 10/15, 10/17
Columbus: 10/10, 10/13. 10/17
Edmonton: 10/16, 10/19, 10/22
Washington: 10/15, 10/17, 10/22
Montreal: 10/20, 10/22, 10/24
Vancouver: 10/21, 10/24, 10/25
San Jose: 10/24, 10/25, 10/28
Nashville: 10/28, 10/29, 10/31
NY Islanders: 10/28, 10/29, 10/31
Florida: 10/30, 10/31, 11/4
Detroit: 10/31, 11/3, 11/5
Atlanta: 11/12, 11/13, 11/15
Boston: 11/19, 11/20, 11/23
Anaheim: 11/23, 11/25, 11/27
Minnesota: 11/27, 11/28, 12/2
St Louis: 12/20, 12/21, 12/23
Carolina: 1/8, 1/10, 1/12
Tampa Bay: 1/21, 1/23, 1/27
Toronto: 3/9, 3/11, 3/13

Only 1 team has yet to accomplish this small feat:

Dallas

I am not sure I could say anything down here that would better pound this point home. In a season where momentum has not been anywhere to be found, the truth is just amazing to behold.

Let's hope we get this out of the way before Halloween next year, right?

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Explaining Away $7.8m and a -13


The other day on the Dallas Stars Postgame Show, the discussions about the future were continuing. I hate to say that is all I think about these days - how the Stars can adjust things so that they soon will be back in the mix in the Western Conference for the big prize - but it is close.

So, the discussion ensues about how best to spend your budget. Who you keep and who you flip for something else. Obviously, if you have put together a team that has missed the playoffs 2 straight years then you try not to fall in love with too many pieces of this puzzle. If you are Joe Nieuwendyk, you analyze what you have; and then you make the necessary adjustments to fix it as soon as possible.

Surely, a lot of this could hinge on a payroll boost from the potential of new ownership. But, nothing is promised, and no papers are signed. It is highly possible that the Dallas Stars budget for 2010-11 is very similar to 2009-10. That could mean that you have to make due with mostly the cash you have on hand. And there is where our debate began about the Stars most highly-compensated player, Brad Richards.

According to NHLNumbers.com , Richards is on the books for $7.8m each of the 5 seasons of his contract, a deal that expires after next season (oh dear, extension talks will be fun). He is clearly the Stars highest paid player, at almost $95,000 per game. Staggering, but the salary is never the issue in pro sports. It is salary divided by performance. In other words, a player can be overpaid at $800,000 - or underpaid at $10m per season. It is all a puzzle for the front office - you have "X" amount of money, and you can distribute it amongst your players in any formula you want. You just have to make sure that you put the money in the proper spots and that those you pay big money to are worth it.

So, that leads us to the discussion - is Brad Richards worth the money? I say, yes. Is he the Stars best player - by a good margin? Again, Yes. Is he someone you build around with your budget for next year? Yes. Yes.

I always notice Brad Richards. I select the 3 stars of the game on pretty regular basis, and #91 is always on the short list. He leads the team in points by a large margin. In fact, he has 82 points, and only 1 other player has more than 49 (Eriksson - 65). Richards has 61 assists, where nobody else has more than 38. He is your best faceoff man, he has scored the most shootout goals, he has 21 goals this season, and averages 1.15 points per game.

On the power play, we must ask where the Stars would be without Brad Richards. He has played 356:00 of Power Play time. Why is that interesting? Look at the next 3 totals for Stars players: Morrow 235, Eriksson 234, Robidas 229. Richards is on the power play all of the time and drives it. In fact, the Stars have scored 52 power play goals this season in 291 chances (17.9%, 16th in NHL). Richards has figured in on 35 of those. 67% of all Power Play goals go through #91. He is 2nd in the league in Power Play points (Stamkos just passed him). The other players in on that race are all part of Top 10 power plays - a sign that they have plenty of horses. I fear where the Stars PP would be without Richards on it in the post-Zubov era. 16th with him - 25th without?

Many of you think moving Richards frees up almost $8m to spend elsewhere. Sure, it does, but how much worse would that make you? But, let's visit 2 of the issues callers of the post game show have had with Brad Richards.

1) - How many of his assists are primary assists versus secondary assists?

2) - How can your best player be your worst +/- player?

Let's tackle these one at a time.

First, one caller (who I found to be extremely misguided) suggested that Richards is a selfish player who only gets assists because he won't leave the ice! I found this somewhat hilarious, but let's address his claims. Yes, to accumulate 356 power play minutes, you must stay on the ice a really long time on the Power Play. But, he plays the point - like Zubov before him - and you can really conserve your energy back there and spend almost all 2 minutes out there if you are a special athlete. #91 and #56 appear to qualify. Now, this next part is really important about primary to secondary assists. This, to me, demonstrates the true puck geniuses in the NHL. Total assists can deceive, with a point-to-point pass giving someone a pretty cheap assist. But primaries generally lead directly to a goal. They are usually the true key to the goal. This is where Richards thrives.

1 player in the NHL has more primary assists than Brad Richards, who has 38 this morning after 2 more in Nashville. Joe Thornton has 43 ($7.2m a season, by the way). The entire rest of the league is below Richards (Nicklas Backstrom is tied at 38). Sedin, Crosby, St Louis, Kane, Sedin? They all look up at Richards. In fact, Richards has 38 primaries of his 61 assists - Only Eriksson has 38 total assists for the Stars. Yes, Richards is good.

So, how do we explain away his team-worst -13?

This one, is obviously much more difficult. I think plus/minus has a number of flaws if you are going to compare from player to player around the league. But, I do think you can compare from teammate to teammate, because they are receiving the same coaching, goaltending, and are all benefactors (or the opposite) of what they have constructed as an entire organization. There are many flaws in the stat (Fistric may lead the team in the rating, but does he play against the same quality of forwards that Robidas does?) but it should not be completely ignored, either.

Richards is a "+5" at home and a "-18" on the road. This, of course, is not uncommon around the league. Home teams get the match-ups they want, road teams are at the mercy of the opposition. Other players with crazy home/road splits? Jamie Langenbrunner has the craziest "+21" at home, "-13" on the road. Steven Stamkos is +17/-17, Sidney Crosby is +18/-11, and Dany Heatley is +19/-7. The list is actually pretty star studded. Playing on the road is more difficult, but not for the same reasons as other sports. In the NHL, it is about getting your checking line out there against their star.

But, maybe you are saying, "Still, Bob. He is "-13"!"

My 2 responses. 1) Yes, like many players on a bad team, he has had flaws in his commitment to getting back on defense some nights. On the road, he is matched up against teams best choices that can pin the Stars in their own end the whole shift. He is being keyed on, and when things are going well, that is fun. But, when things are going poorly, bad habits get worse. He needs to be better, and he can be.

2) Did you know that players get minus numbers for allowing short handed goals and empty net goals? Richards has been on the ice for 6 SH goals against. This may be partially his fault, since anytime you put a forward on the point, you run the risk of bad things if the opposition gets the puck and goes. But, -6 there, and another -6 because he is on the ice when the Stars pull the goalie only to allow a freebie, and you see where the number gets big. Add those up and that explains away "-12" just because he is the best player on an average-to-below-average team. Yes, that would also apply to several other Stars players, but not as much, since Richards plays the most ice time in those spots. "-13" sounds way worse than "-1". If this sounds like I am justifying a bad number, it could be. But, I don't believe for a second that he is as lousy as "-13" suggests. Sometimes, you have to look into the numbers just a little deeper to see meaning and mitigating circumstances.

In conclusion, I hope this demonstrates where I stand on #91. He is well compensated for sure, but I think he lives up to it. He is 8th in the NHL in scoring, and what is the going rate for a Top-10 scorer? Let's see. If we eliminate the 3 kids in the Top 10 who are all on their rookie contracts (Backstrom, Kane, and Stamkos) then the 7 veteran players are like this: Ovechkin ($9m), Sedin ($6.1m), Crosby ($9m), St Louis ($5.2m), Thornton ($7.2m), Gaborik ($7.5m).

Average Salary of a veteran Top 10 scorer? $7.3m a year.

Sometimes you get what you pay for. Dallas is with Brad Richards.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Stars and Big Fan, Jared

One thing I wish I would have done more of this season is to print and respond to more emails. Many of you send them, and I read them all, but I may not give you the public response I would like to.

With that in mind, allow me to feature one of the more hardcore emailers I know, Jared, who sits in section 310 every night, and although I would not say I agree with everything he has to say, I thought I would print it all - and respond to a few points down at the end.

The following are 2 emails Jared in 310 sent me in the last 3 days:



Our blueline is not good enough, but consider this....1st round vs Ducks in '08, who was our blueline? Zubov and Boucher were out (Zubov came back in the Guppy series and Phillipe never really came back). It was Fistric, Niskanen, Grossman, Daley, Roby, and Norstrom...essentially the same guys we've got now (though I would consider Norstrom substantially better than Karlis). Not sure what that says about our young guys, but it seems weird to me.

Nisky- a lot of what you say is fair, but I hear a lot of people slamming Nisky and I wonder why when he is far from the worst Dman on this team. There would seem to be better targets.

Now, about a month back I got curious so I did a little comparing of Nisky's stats at age 23 with some of the top end guys around the league. Not the youngsters (I don't think it fair to compare him with say Phaneuf or Dowty who were top 5 picks) but the stud #1 veterans. And I concentrated on the offensive guys because comparing off and def Dmen is like comparing bananas and plantains...kinda look the same but really aren't.

Not suprisingly, the future HOFers (Lidstrom, Zubov, Pronger, Nieds, Blake) blow him away. What's interesting is that his #s are equal to or better than many of the rest...Gonchar, Boyle, JBo, Rafalski, Chara...Chara at age 23 had 3 full seasons behind him and was -62 for his career!!! Rafalski wasn't even in the league (was in Europe, made the NHL at age 26).

The Isles gave up on Chara after that season and traded him and a 1st to Ottawa for Yashin (the pick became Spezza). Ouch. I used to live on the Island and I can tell you what they think of that move. Now, if you can package Nisky in a deal for Shea Weber, fine...but, I'm not so quick to give up on him after running through the comparisons.

I think Nisky's biggest problem this year is mental. He came in this year after leading the blueline in scoring last year (and having a really strong second half IMO) and, with Zubov gone, the team really put the pressure on him to be the replacement. Nobody replaces a Zubov anyway, but that's a lot to put on a then 22 yr old. And it shows...like forwards who "squeeze the stick" too much when they are in a slump, he has tried to be too perfect, tried to do too much. Rather than just playing and letting the game come to him. And I don't feel the coaching staff has helped any of our Dmen (forwards not coming back to help on breakouts has been a problem for the entire D corps and I lay that at Crawford).

And yeah, he gets paid to handle that pressure and all that stuff so he should get over it...true. Still....

BTW, trading for a true #1 Dman is as expensive as signing a UFA one, just in a different way. Look at what TO gave up for Phaneuf and what it cost for Pronger both times he was traded recently. Ribs alone, or Neal alone, or Benn alone will not get us what we need. And trading one of them for Robin Regher or Mike Komisserek just isn't worth it. And are you willing to part with all three (or 2 and one of the young D) to get one. It's tough.

Also, Turco comes off the books, but the money isn't saved...it's been spent already on the extensions for Roby and Loui. Ott is extra (unless you let Lehts walk) as is Kari and that leaves no money under the current budget for Neal. Nisky is also RFA. Offer sheets are unlikely...IIRC a team that offered one would have to give the Stars their 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks as compensation (that was the talk last summer about Kessel). But I do wonder if Neal will be moved ala Kessel before next year if the budget has to stay the same.

OK, that's enough, later and thanks for reading

Jared
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Jared-

I don't disagree with a lot of what you say about the Stars budget and the best way to get a #1 defensemen.

I do disagree with your thoughts on Niskanen. Yes, players develop at a different pace, but your 23-year old comps are not totally equal. Rafalski went to 4 years at the University of Wisconsin. Then he went to develop his game further in Finland. He played his first NHL game at the age of 26. That is just not a similar path to a guy (Niskanen) who has played 223 games already. 223 games is basically every game for 3 straight seasons. The Stars have put him out there over and over again to get him to take the next step.

To me, his game really, really concerns me. He seems to lack confidence and composure, and I might argue those are the two biggest characteristics I need my defensemen to possess. NHL Opponents see blood in the water, and if you look a bit worried about taking another hit, they skate faster and hit you harder. It is survival of the fittest, so it is important that you don't let them see you flinch. Easy for me to say from the comfort and safety of the press box, but....

You say, "I wonder why when he is far from the worst Dman on this team. There would seem to be better targets." I think I disagree. If you ask what was expected of everyone, I would look at it this way. Robidas and Grossman have met expectations. Daley has been decent (but could have been better), Fistric has exceeded expectations. Woywitka and Skrastins have been exactly what you paid for. That leaves Niskanen as the guy who was expected to be one thing, and now has been scratched 3 of the last 4 games because the Stars have had enough, I believe. In fact, I cannot help but see the similarities between expectations, production, and frustration these days with him and Fabian Brunnstrom up front. It appears the Stars, after 200+ games are begging Niskanen to give them a reason to pay him this summer. But, I do wonder if we are nearing the end of this experiment of things don't change soon.

I will not argue with you on the money situation. They obviously need to move forward with solutions that will allow them to improve the payroll if they are to compete for the top of the West.

Bob

=============================


I hope you get to this before the game tomorrow. Here's a topic for the post game...will PHX catch SJ for first in the Pac. Or for that matter, a win tomorrow and PHX is tied for 1st in the entire West. You mentioned after the SJ game that you had questions about the Guppies, but never got a chance to come back to it. I suspect I know most of the points...lack of forward depth beyond the top 6, Nabby fatigue and no backup to give him rest down the stretch, having to trade 1/3 of their D corps last year just to clear space for Heatley, JoeT and his annual disappearing act, and on and on.

So, it would appear that Tipp has the Jack Adams sewed up- How do you feel about the move last summer now? I said at the time that it was at best a lateral move as Crow's post-season record without Sakic/Forsberg/Roy was the same as Tipp-3 series wins. Despite having arguably the best line in hockey for a few years with Naslund/Bertuzzi/Morrison. I would contend Tipp's problems getting results here had more to do with the incompetence of those above him (Armey/Hull/Hicks) than his personal quality. We can never know of course, but IMO the Stars make the POs last year if Richie stays healthy, so to me this year is a step back from the last.

BTW, you guys were talking Mo today and let me tell you how those of us in Sec 310 feel. If the budget stays the same for next year (and I've heard nothing to say it won't) then next year is gonna suck whether they keep Mo or boot him. They are not making the POs next year without a major infusion of cash and that won't happen before July 1. But getting to see Mo continue to climb the NHL record book (however slow he may be at it these days) is one of the few things that makes sitting through it worthwhile. If the Stars boot him, then a lot of long time STH may be headed for their TV sets.

I thought of another point about Tipp and last year's team. About 30 games in, they were 30th out of 30 teams in the league, BMo was lost, Zubov was lost, Avery was gone. And I think a lot of people look at where they finished and forget what happened in the middle.

On the day Richie broke his wrist (the first time), the Stars were 5th in the West and pretty comfortable to keep that spot. Richie got hurt and everything went downhill. But , what a tremendous job to get this team back into contention (not just barely in but middle seed) after where they had started and with your captain out of the lineup. I will always contend that if Richie had stayed healthy then the Stars would have made the POs and Tipp would have won the Adams then. He will certainly deserve it this year.

Jared


I suppose now is as good of a time as any to visit about the story of Dave Tippett. Obviously, he has done a world of good to his resume with the unreal job he did in Phoenix.

Most people had no hopes for his success when he took over that very impossible job in the desert. I wished he would have passed on it until a better job came along, but he did not. Coaches coach. That is what they do. Dave Tippett felt like he was perhaps the victim of a regime change here in Dallas, and still should have been behind this bench, but he also knows that coaches are hired with the understanding that at some point, roughly 100% of them will be fired.

I have to believe that he is the front-runner for the Jack Adams, and while Terry Murray and Joe Sacco also deserve a tip of the cap, I might believe that Tip will run away with this trophy.

So, did the Stars make a mistake?

It is way too early to say with any sort of definitive voice - although the evidence shows the team that fired him is playing even worse than when he coached them given the circumstances, and the team that hired him is playing so much better that no one can explain it. A coach that could not get the Stars to keep the puck out of their own net last year has allowed 50 fewer goals than Dallas this season, while playing in the same division.

To weigh the work of Marc Crawford to the work of Dave Tippett is very difficult. It is apples and oranges on many levels. Tippett generally always had full financial resources, and he had 6 years and 500 games to put his imprint on the Stars.

Crawford has had 72 games in a year in which the Stars could not make the necessary alterations to the roster to make it over in a way that could best execute the style and vision of Mr Crawford and Mr Nieuwendyk.

I am amazed at the job of Dave Tippett, and like many people in this city, I do wonder what he might have done here. On the other hand, was he the new voice in the room there? Was he saying just what the Coyotes needed to hear? And would that same message, if delivered in Frisco, have fallen on deaf ears of guys who have heard it all for 500 games here?

The truth is that the Stars have not looked organized or well-coached for parts of this season. While I do not want to give a mulligan for the entire season, I do want to insert some of the realities this new regime has had to work with, and say I would like to see another year and check for progress when they are finally able to address some of the personnel.

If the Coyotes win the Pacific or the whole Western Conference, it will certainly hurt, but I don't think we can automatically assume it would have happened here. 50 fewer goals allowed is not a small amount. And Phoenix has allowed 179 goals, while the Stars have surrendered 229. They have had better goaltending, better defense, and maybe, better coaching.

Congrats to Tip, and let's hope we are having Jack Adams discussions around here next year, too.

Jared, I love the passion, and the great emails. Keep em coming.

Friday, March 19, 2010

Fading to #12

This morning's standings tell you all you need to know about where this season sits:

8. Detroit 80
9. Calgary 79
10. St Louis 75
11. Minnesota 74
12. Dallas 73
13. Anaheim 72

With a dozen games to go, the Stars are in a spot where they need to leap 4 teams, make up 7 points, and take a gigantic leap in our imaginations that suggest they could possibly string together somewhere in the range of 5 consecutive wins, in a season where they have yet to win 3 straight. All the while, this needs to happen at the same moment that Detroit and Calgary go on prolonged losing skids.

I think you know where I am going with this.

The main reason why I tried to keep the excitement of a 8-2 spanking of the San Jose Sharks contained is that in the course of 82 games, there are simply statistical anomalies. All good teams will have a few games where they look horrid, and all horrid teams will have a few games where they look good.

To prove the win versus Washington last week or the win versus San Jose actually had bigger meaning, the Stars would have to follow up those efforts with similar showings that we could then suggest constitute a trend.

No such luck.

After Washington, the Stars lost to Buffalo, Los Angeles (In OT), and Colorado. And after the San Jose win, the Stars played reasonably well against Philadelphia, but in the end they were on the short end of a 3-2 result.

Disappointing and maddening altogether. It sure doesn't appear to be effort or desire. But, in the end, I keep coming back to the same conclusion.

This team is just not good enough.

There are a dozen reasons why they aren't good enough - some of which I have written about extensively, others I will write about extensively - but, the only thing that really matters is the bottom line; close to being in the playoff mix, but for the 2nd year in a row, it looks like they will both miss the playoffs and pick in the Top 10 of the upcoming NHL draft.

On the positive side, I do want to point out a few more reasons why I think the Stars have a reasonable future waiting for them. Nik Grossman has returned and played very well. I think his assist to Steve Ott could very well be the finest assist of his career, but we all know any offense from #2 is a strict bonus. The reason I love him is that I think on his best nights, he is extremely solid in his own end. Just composed and steady, seldom making a horrible mistake, and generally worthy of a proper +/- as bad things don't seem to happen too much when he is on the ice.

Jamie Benn has looked better and better as the post-Olympic portion of the season rolls on. There have been several games where the Stars youngest player looks like their best. He has not hit that rookie wall (perhaps that 2 week break is to credit) and he looks like his transition to center is going pretty well. Whether he stays there will be determined, but to make that transition on top of a transition to NHL hockey and look like he is not facing struggles that are too big for him is a real positive sign. I can't wait to see what he develops into.

And finally, Kari Lehtonen. I surely must temper my enthusiasm as we cannot judge a goaltender on a few starts, but I really like what I see so far. He is big, he seems confident, and he is surprisingly nimble with what are impressive toe saves on both nights during this stretch where #32 has been between the pipes. He cuts down the angle with a confident push, he seems to generally find the puck, he gets back to his feet, and he has not allowed the softie. Again, the true goalie is not proven in March of a season when you miss the playoffs, but we now see what the Stars saw when they thought his trade was worth the price. A young, talented goalie who might be your next #1 and is just entering his prime. Let's hope.

These 3 players are not enough to put the Stars over the top, but when you add them to Neal, Loui, and some of the other kids, mix in the veterans who we already know - you can project that the Stars are not too far away with some shrewd off-season moves.

But, there is work to be done.

Friday, March 12, 2010

Stars Roadtrip '10 - Final Judgement

There comes a time in everyone's life when they must look in the mirror. Delusions and hopes often can send us a message that we are good enough, strong enough, and doggone it, people like us. But, what if we aren't good enough?

What if we were a bit delusional when we thought this team was stocked enough to surely make the playoffs, and maybe challenge for some home ice in Round 1? What if I thought the mere passage of time was enough to take some of the youth to the next level? What if the return of some from injury was not enough to move this team from out of the playoffs in 2009 to into the playoffs in 2010?

I hate to be the bearer of bad tidings, but I sense the grim reaper is on its way to see our Dallas Stars.

Having seen the first 5 games in the post Olympic segment of the season in person, I am sad to report that the Stars are just not good enough right now. I wish they were good enough. I wish they had enough in their tank. I wish I could assure those who ask me every day that they will shake out of it and make the playoffs.

But, I need to be truthful. Against the Kings, Blues, Penguins, Capitals, and Sabres, the Stars have been out-played in all 5 games. They are 1-4, with the lone win in Washington an amazing magic trick that should be credited to Marty Turco, a little luck, and a big 3rd period.

They have been outscored 25-11. They have been out shot 178-138. They have been badly outplayed.

They have not been near good enough.

I wish I could tell you why it is what it is. I wish I had more than just theories as to why our Stars are finishing 2nd in most games they play these days. But, the truth is that they do. They are unable to impose their will on their opponent. They are unable to play physical enough with physical teams, nor are they able to play skilled enough with skill teams. They seem to be neither fish nor fowl.

And now, with 16 games to play, we face the reality that the Stars are 5 points out of the final spot. If, Calgary goes 8-8 on the way in, they would finish with 91 points. That, of course, means the Stars need more than 10 wins the rest of the way. And, our Stars have not won 3 straight games yet this entire year.

You may be asking yourself why I would write this on DallasStars.com. Shouldn't I have my pom-poms out and tell you that they are ready to start winning 7 out of 9? Maybe.

But, the bosses here have always told me to speak my mind. They have told me to tell it to you straight. So I am doing my best.

I hope to be wrong, but as of right now, if I had to give you my prediction of the final month, I don't like what I am seeing at all. This just looks like a team that has lost its way. Those who have gas left in the tank are having trouble putting it all together. Those who have no gas left in the tank are running on fumes.

Maybe the Stars can use this declaration as motivation. Print it, and post it, and if 1 guy plays better to show me that I am wrong, then it is worth it. I want this team to win badly. I am happy when playoff hockey approaches. But, the storm has arrived. Our 2010 Stars appear to be on the outside looking in.

Please, I beg you, prove me wrong, boys. 6 games in a row at home may be your last chance.

Tuesday, March 09, 2010

Stars Blog: Roadtrip '10 - Washington



Hockey is amazing sometimes. Take Monday night, for instance. The Stars are playing arguably their worst hockey of the season headed into the game. They have lost 3 straight by a combined 12 goals. They have been steamrolled since the Olympics by everyone. Then, Monday night, they are being out-played badly by the best team in the NHL - a team that has not lost a home game since December 28! Through 2 periods, the Stars were outshot 42-16 and the only thing that kept them from being behind by more than 2 goals might have been a lovely combination of great goaltending from Marty Turco and pure luck.

Then, a penalty turns into a power play goal. That turns into another penalty, and another power play goal. And murmurs in the crowd, shaky play in goal, and suddenly the Stars are taking a lead on a James Neal goal and a shocked Verizon Center has no idea what just happened. And neither did the Washington Capitals, who were just thinking how they were grinding the Stars into a fine powder for 40 minutes. In fact, you could almost understand if they spent the 2nd intermission making dinner plans rather than worrying about a reeling Stars team. Lesson learned, I suppose.

Anyway, the Stars tried to kill off a 3-2 lead for the final half of the 3rd period, which gave those of us lucky to be there a chance to see Alex Ovechkin go on one mission after another to even the score. He was credited with 10 shots on the night, and looked dangerous seemingly every time he stepped on the ice. To say he is a special player is like suggesting the Grand Canyon is a special piece of land. He may or may not be the best player in hockey, but he is certainly the most electric. He has a gear that nobody else can reach, but he also has a relentless drive that is not often shared by those of his talent level. He is the total package to me.

And finally, he tied the game with 3:16 left with one of those highlight goals that would be worthy of most player's highlight of their life - but for Ovi, it might crack his Top 50 - as he inside-outs Stephane Robidas and then places the puck in the top corner with such precision that I feel comfortable saying no goalie in the sport gets to that one. A truly special goal from a kid who has enough of the goods to sell this league to the unconvinced.

So, where did that leave the Stars? Would they crash and burn? Or would they salvage the evening? Well as many of you saw (Sorry, Directv subscribers), the Stars survived and won a shootout against a team that has enough shootout ringers to seem nearly illegal.

Full marks to Marty Turco, who by all measurements has not been getting it done like he has in the past, for stepping up and making more saves than he has in any game in his career. He was under assault for 65 minutes last night and provided the type of performance that makes you think he can still be that franchise goalie if the situation is right. But, can it happen often enough? There is the question. But there was no question about how he played on Monday. Amazing job.

===========

One final thought, the game was amazing, but the setting for hockey was top notch in Washington DC. As someone who used to attend a few Caps games every year in the mid 1990's, let me tell you that it is a far cry from the Cap Center in Landover, MD and the scene back then. The Verizon Center is set up right in the middle of Washington, DC, in a perfect spot where mass transit and general city activity just make it a fabulous destination point. Then, the packed arena and game presentation show you that there may not be a more successful franchise in the league with pleasing their customers.

I have to tell you, you cannot convince me the NHL is not alive and well after a stop in Pittsburgh and Washington. I will grant you that they have the two marquee players in hockey, but I wonder if we get a poor perception of where hockey stands with our constant view through the Pacific Division looking glass. Hockey is an after-thought in many Pacific cities, and surely doesn't always have full arenas. But, if you cast your eyes on a few other cities in this league (Philadelphia, Chicago, Buffalo, etc) you see that NHL hockey is flourishing and doing as well or better than the NBA.

Funny how perception seems like reality, but sometimes it isn't. It would be nice if one of these transcendent players would end up in the Western Conference at some point.

Friday, March 05, 2010

Stars Blog: Roadtrip '10 - Pittsburgh


"Lots of questions, but short on answers" would be the theme of the day as the Stars losing streak hits 3 games at the most crucial of moments in their season, after a 6-3 to the defending Cup Champions in Pittsburgh on Saturday afternoon.

It is certainly a joy and a pleasure to be on the road with the Stars under any and all circumstances (in case you don't know what I am talking about, the Bob and Dan Radio show is traveling with the team on this most challenging or road trips this week to Pittsburgh, Washington, and Buffalo) it is a bit uncomfortable seeing the disappointment on the faces of the team at the moment of truth for the 2009-10 season.

They know the crucial nature of their actions. They know they cannot allow Los Angeles and St Louis to jump on them on home ice for a combined 11-2 thumping before going out East to take on the best the conference has to offer, and yet they cannot stop the bleeding.

Of course, it should be noted that beating the Penguins in Pittsburgh is an extremely tall order for any team in any circumstance, let alone a team that is a borderline playoff contender that is having trouble beating anyone this week. Pittsburgh is bursting with quality, as they scored 6 without Evgeni Malkin contributing a single point and Bill Guerin missing the game with back spasms. And yet, with this Sidney Crosby kid - who you look at and cannot help but think what he was doing just 6 days ago - they had more than enough hockey genius for a Saturday matinee victory.

Crosby worked some sweet magic yesterday with a number of plays that tell you he is not some hype-created force. He is arguably the best player in the world. And if he is in the middle of an argument about that topic, the other side of it, Alex Ovechkin, awaits the stumbling Stars on Monday in Washington.

Back to our Stars, there is not too much that can be said that hasn't already been said. We can talk about the idea that it is "go time", but it already was "go time" last week. We can talk about how everyone needs to dig a little deeper and skate a little harder. But, at what point do the guys begin to question whether they have what it takes to mount the surge that is required to make the playoffs?

I hope we are not already there - but this thing is in critical condition. Nothing a win on Monday won't cure, but then again, Washington actually has 96 points right now - the most in the NHL - and an unthinkable 14 more than the Penguins!

Nobody said this was going to be an easy ride. Even if the plane is decked out and wonderful.

=============All Time Results of BaD Radio Road Trips===========


2/14/04 At Pho L 3-2
2/16/04 At Ana L 1-3
2/18/04 At LA W 4-3

3/5/06 At Chi W 7-2
3/7/06 At Edm W 4-3
3/9/06 At Cal L 1-0
3/11/06 At Van W 2-1

3/21/07 At LA W 4-2
3/23/07 At Ana OTL 3-2
3/24/07 At Pho W 4-3

3/27/08 at SJ OTL 3-2
3/29/08 at LA W 7-2
3/30/08 at Ana OTL 3-2

3/3/09 at SJ W 4-1
3/5/09 at LA OTL 5-4
3/6/09 at ANA W 3-2

3/6/10 at Pitt L 6-3


9-4-4

Monday, March 01, 2010

Canada 3, USA 2 - Gold Medal Game



To suggest I have a number of varying opinions about the hockey genius we witnessed yesterday and for the last 2 weeks would be an understatement. I feel that I should blog today from a number of varying perspectives, so please find the one that matters most to you and read on:

From the perspective of the USA hockey fan who felt a punch to the stomach a few moments before 5:00 pm yesterday when Sidney Crosby stole the show:

This one really hurts. I must tell you though, this team also exceeded my expectations and renewed so much hope in the state of American hockey in the post- Modano, Hull, Guerin, Richter, Roenick, Tkachuk, Leetch, Chelios-era. Many fans, like me, did not want to cut the ties with the old legends of American hockey, and were a bit uncomfortable with not bringing along a few gray-beards for the sake of nostaligia and leadership. But kudos to Brian Burke and company for having a vision and darn near riding that vision all the way to a gold medal. They believed in the next wave of young and talented studs - who grew up inspired by the old guard - and those young players demonstrated a fight and grit and spirit that gave us plenty of hope moving forward.

I really am proud that our country can produce players like Patrick Kane, Ryan Miller, and Zach Parise to carry on the torch. The gap still exists, as our American team may not have had more than those 3 make Team Canada, but we obviously can skate with them, and on our best day we can beat them.

I was also quite excited about the job that Jamie Langenbrunner did as captain. It is hard to consider him an old man, but in a young man's game, he did very well in making sure that if the USA was going to drop a hockey game in these Olympics, it would only be at the climax of one of the greatest games ever played.

From a US perspective, I will never forget jumping around my living room with sheer joy when Parise scored to tie the game, nor will I forget standing there motionless when Canada celebrated. It is certainly different living and dying with a team you didn't really know or understand 2 weeks ago, but it doesn't take long to embrace a team who wears your flag.

In my lifetime, I look forward to my countrymen winning Olympic Gold when all of the best are playing. I doubt we will ever see the day when we are favored, but surely we know now that we can compete 20 on 20 with Canada's finest. For a while yesterday, I started thinking it was destiny, and that it would happen in 2010. But, I must say, they played so well and courageously that I don't leave these games feeling like an American player let us down. I think they squeezed everything they had out, and fell one puck short.

Proud of USA Hockey. Thanks for the ride, boys.



From the Perspective of a fan of Hockey who bangs the drum for this sport even when it annoys and frustrates me:

I think we now fully understand why this show is worthwhile. The NHL players who must work this into their sometimes-100 games + season to promote the sport are certainly pressed for time, but this is worth it. Hockey may be the only sport of the big 4 that can have a tournament where the teams are this close and as many as 6 teams have a chance at the Gold Medal according to experts (Canada, Russia, Sweden were the 3 favorites - with the USA, Finland, and Czech Republic also in the mix). Basketball isn't far off, but the advantage the US has in hoops is far greater than the advantage Canada has on the ice. Of the first team NHL last year, 0 members of Team Canada made the list.

But, this is what happens when when the best show up and play with the passion to be the best. There is a clear difference between skating hard and skating hard with a gold medal on the line. The level of play was awesome. It was Stanley Cup Finals intensity, with 300% more talent on the ice than in any Stanley Cup Finals. The teams are loaded - uneffected with over-expansion - and playing like they mean it.

And obviously, this is key, because the world was watching. Or, at least North America was watching. I have never seen so many people talking hockey as I saw yesterday. On Twitter, people from every walk of life were trying to figure out what they were looking at as they gave hockey a chance for the first time in years.

I have no delusions that those same people are now signing up for NHL Center Ice and gathering around for the stretch drive of the NHL Season or reading up on who might be moved by the Wednesday trade deadline, but it is nice for them to see what it is that obsesses us.

This sport, at its best, takes second place to nobody. The intensity generated by a game of that magnitude and the nerves that accompany it cannot be duplicated. I love hockey for moments like yesterday. I sit through 1,000 games waiting for yesterday. And it is a pleasure.

As I said yesterday on twitter, "This. Is. Hockey. - Welcome"



From the Perspective of Dallas Stars and Brenden Morrow fan:

There he is, our captain, looking like he hasn't looked since the 2008 NHL Playoffs. Playing like an enraged William Wallace.

Featured in Sunday's Vancouver Sun by Iain MacIntyre: Here


Salt of the earth person, salt of the earth player, Morrow embodies nearly all the characteristics Canadians so admire in hockey players: bravery, unselfishness, resilience, toughness, honesty. That skill set made him important to Team Canada. Then he started scoring goals.

Morrow deflected in Chris Pronger's wrist shot for one goal Friday and screened goalie Jaroslav Halak on another as Canada hung on to beat Slovakia 3-2 to advance to the gold-medal game Sunday against the United States on the final day of the Vancouver Olympics.

"I was pleased with four or five minutes -just being part of the team, grinding it out, blocking shots, battling low," Morrow said. "This is icing on top to be able to contribute like this and score an Olympic goal. It's a pretty big thrill and I want to just keep riding it out."

At age 31, Morrow wasn't any-one's favourite to even make Team Canada, but is having the tournament of his life at his first Olympics.

From tiny Carlyle, a hamlet in the grain belt of southeastern Saskatchewan, Morrow had played internationally for Canada in five previous tournaments. And in 27 games over four world championships and one World Cup, the Dallas Stars' winger had scored zero goals, which says as much about the traits he possesses and the one he does not.

But on the grandest Canadian hockey stage since the 1972 Summit Series, Morrow is on a scoring binge. He jammed a puck in against Russia during Canada's 7-3 win in Wednesday's quarter-finals.

"They've both been pretty ugly, but that's how mine seem to go in, so I'll take them anyway I can get them," Morrow said. "It's more of a sprint than a marathon [at the Olympics]. Guys you battle against throughout the season -probably some guys you don't really care much for -but you come here and put that all aside and you have one common goal. We're a tight group now. We're willing to pay a price for each other and do everything we can for that gold."

Morrow said he has been thinking about that since Team Canada held its orientation camp in August.

Yet, there was no guarantee Morrow would actually be named in December to the Olympic roster.

He is a size-medium grinder on a team full of XL offensive gazelles.

And if there were a leaderboard for second-guessed selections, Morrow would have been the clubhouse leader coming to Vancouver.

After a mid-career outburst that saw Morrow score nearly a point per game for more than a year, his 2008-09 season ended with a torn ACL ligament 15 months ago. The injury must have extended internally to his hands, because when Morrow came back this season his scoring touch had hardened.

He had 33 points in 56 games before the Olympics. Even as a role player, someone who would provide some sandpaper and menace on the fourth line, Morrow could have been bypassed in favour of Shane Doan or Ryan Smyth or Alex Burrows.

It seemed even Team Canada's staff may have been wondering about their choice when the tournament opened as Morrow was one of four players "pooled" on the fourth line. But he played his way up almost immediately.

He is on a line with NHL rivals Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, nasty players who are probably among that group Morrow ordinarily doesn't care much for, and the unit's presence has been felt most shifts.

"In years past, it's kind of been the same thing: get on the team, grind it out and earn everything I get," Morrow said. "That's been the case here, too. The work comes first. I think anyone who comes here, you wouldn't be here if you didn't want a bigger [role]. Our line has battled hard. We've been strong on pucks down low. That's been the key to our line's success: our strength on pucks. I think we've gained a little bit of trust from the coach and we're getting rewarded for it."


It feels extremely wierd pulling for a team where Brenden was on the other side. I have loved watching him grow up and reaching many of his dreams. I have also loved that he has been honest as a man when it comes to saying what matters most to him. And at or near the very top of the list is winning a gold medal while representing his country.

So, to see him skating around hitting everyone in his way, digging the puck out, and going to the net let me know that he is still that guy. His knee is better, and he is back and ready to wreck what is in his way.

This should make the Stars very excited about the stretch drive. He is newly determined and finally back to 100%. Now, with a gold medal, I wonder if he is ready to get back to the work at hand - getting the Stars to the next level, too.

I was stunned and disappointed to see Sidney Crosby score with a goal that personified "sudden death". I wasn't even close to happy about how my country came up an inch or two short. But, I must admit that seeing Brenden Morrow so happy gave me a small level of consolation.

Someday, if he is skating a Cup in Dallas, I imagine I will feel even better about seeing him celebrate.

What a tournament. What a sport.

And now, we return you to your regularly scheduled NHL season....

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Stars Trade Review: Kari Lehtonen



And so the Joe Nieuwendyk era continues with a very interesting move. So interesting, in fact, that lost in this shuffle was a very legitimate road result in Chicago last night that could have easily been 2 desperately needed points. At least they were able to put a point in the bank. Something about seeing the Blackhawks across the ice brings out pretty nice efforts from our Dallas Stars. They need to finish this portion of the schedule (At Calgary, At Phoenix) with a few more points, and then they can have a March with substance when the Olympics are completed.

But, we aren't here to talk about a Tuesday game in February. We are here to discuss what the acquisition of Kari Lethonen means to the long term health of the Dallas Stars organization.

Last night, as you know by now, Lethonen was snagged by the Stars from Atlanta at the rather sizeable sum of the Ivan Vishnevskiy and a 4th round pick.

OK, where to begin....Let me just grab a topic and go with it:

* How good is Lehtonen? Well, he is one of only 3 goalies to be picked in the Top 3 spots of the draft in the last decade (Rick Dipietro, Marc-Andre Fleury) so we know he has the pedigree. He is 26, and he has talent to the moon and back. He is big, quick, and has scouts drooling with what he could accomplish at this level. He has also played for a team that has never really built much of a defense around him, and has been a guy who has not been overly healthy for his career. The guys on the NHL network this morning were even discussing his work ethic or the idea that he may not "want it" as bad as a guy at this level must. Also, he has not played all year because of back surgery. I don't know about you, but when I hear a goalie and back surgery, it is very similar to a pitcher with elbow issues. So, that gives me pause, too.

* Now some disclosure: I watch all Stars games. Then, on non-Stars nights, I gravitate to certain teams in either the division or teams I am interested in through my decades of loving hockey. They generally are: Edmonton, Calgary, Chicago, Toronto, Montreal, Pittsburgh, Washington, and the NY Rangers. I don't know why, but if the Stars are not playing, and there are no big Pacific Division games, I find my way to those teams on Center Ice, preferably playing eachother. The reason I tell you this is that if there are teams I DO go out of my way to watch, there must also be teams that I almost NEVER watch. Enter, the Atlanta Thrashers. I hate to say it, but there is a reasonable chance if the Stars are not playing them that I don't see them play 3 times a year. So with that in mind, I just want to be honest - I have almost no original opinion about Kari Lehtonen. Everything I feel is from information people I trust have written or said. Just some disclosure for you.

* On the health issues: I have to believe since it is Nieuwy's first major player move, he has done his due diligence on both the back issues and the overall skills/upside of the player that will go a long way in forging his performance record early on. There is much at stake, and people around Joe are quick to tell you how deliberate he is about almost everything he does. Maybe not Bob Gainey deliberate, but surely a guy who looks at every angle before he does something like this.

* On the three goalie thing: I suggest that what they are saying is smart business. The word is that they are not intent on moving a goalie here before March 3 and just covering themselves for the summer. But, I don't believe you trade your debated #1 prospect for an insurance policy. I believe they think Lehtonen is the #1 around here for the next several years, and are just saying the right things to keep their bargaining power high in the Turco marketplace. We know money is tight, so to bring in a player of a decent salary ($3M), there is a chance that money must now go out before the deadline. Also, carrying 3 goalies is not ideal for a team trying to make a playoff run. In my opinion, and I have no inside scoop here, the management team is going to sit back, watch the Olympics, and in the event of a contender suffering an Olympic injury between the pipes, the Stars will be working the phones. I don't believe there is any chance of a Turco extension now. Again, just my opinion. I appreciate Marty as much as the next guy, but the writing seems there for all to see.

* On losing Ivan: I think it is easy to say this kid is the "next Zubov", but there is only one #56. He is a talented kid who will spend years in the league, but is he special? Or is he a guy? Again, Les Jackson/Brett Hull/Doug Armstrong may have felt one way on Vishnevskiy, but perhaps what they saw was based on his development and realizing his immense skating talent and becoming a true elite offensive defenseman. And, since they are no longer pulling the trigger around here, it is up to the new regime to figure if they should ride it out or flip him now we the league still thinks he can be that. Joe has looked and looked and perhaps decided that for the right offer, Ivan can be had as bait. You have to give to get in this league, but if you think he is really Zubie II, you don't trade him for a goalie with back issues. So, we can assume he didn't feel that way. Now, we hold our breath and hope he is right.

* Overall, I have no problem with this move - assuming that the Stars obviously feel like this kid is ready to break out between the pipes. They want to turn the page and they think Kari is the guy to help them get there. If things go right, he could still be your goalie in 7 years. Now it is time to help him by solidifying the blueline in front of him. But, it sure looks like the Stars are turning the page and building with a newer, younger group.

Monday, January 25, 2010

Stars Mail

Let's do some morning stick-and-puck odds-n-ends on our Tuesday morning. I hope we can all just pretend that 4-0 trouncing in Colorado never happened and move on. The good news on the road trip is that the Stars brought home a road Win at Edmonton. The bad news of course, is that the trip also had a disappointing night in Vancouver and what appeared to almost be an absolute no-show in Colorado.

Tough times and health issues are not assisting. But, those who can must continue marching and getting points. This is getting difficult to navigate in such a way that the team finds itself into the playoff mix.

I was asked yesterday what I think about the Stars playoff chances, and my response was that I am not as optimistic as I was a month ago. As we passed New Year's Day, it sure looked like the Stars were figuring out the Marc Crawford way and starting to come together. But, since then, the Stars have won 4 games out of 12, suffered injuries to some key guys, and won their first road game since mid-November.

The hopes that this team gets on a run in the final 30 games may be more in the realm of wishful thinking if they don't pick it up right away. 9 more games until the Olympic Break and 10 more games before the March 3 trade deadline. It all starts with the next 4 at home against Western Conference foes - the Flames, Avalanche, Coyotes, and Wild. In fact, 3 of the next 9 are against Dave Tippett and those shockingly impressive Phoenix Coyotes. They sit 5th in the west and if it wasn't for the shockingly impressive Colorado Avalanche in 3rd, they would be the talk of the west.

They are still right in the mix, but the results of this homestand are vital.

Let's check some email:

Hello Bob Sturm show. Dallas' only real radio hockey expert. Do you think the Stars regret trading away Mike Smith and Dan Ellis now? Okay, well maybe just Ellis at this point, but wouldn't it have been better to have those guys instead of paying a guy $5 mil grab some wood, bub? Alex Auld isn't the long term answer here. The Stars had a goalie surplus and now they have nothing for the future. And for a team that is building for the 'future", that is not good. I know it's all hindsight now. Do you think the Stars put all their eggs in the Gustavsson basket and really had no other "backup" plan? Pun intended. Also, do you think the Stars can trade Marty for "value" before the deadline? What do you think they could realistically get back? Thanks, and I never listen to BAD radio.


Wow. Every Stars fan's worries are tied up in goal these days, right? We are all wondering what will happen next. Will the Stars extend Marty's deal? - (I have heard nothing that tells me they will) Will they try to trade him? - (If they do, don't expect much back besides a similar salary in a dump from the other team to get a deal with future cash off their books) What are the other options?

I have to believe nothing is more on Joe Nieuwendyk's mind more than this issue. Did he take a chance on Gustavsson and get burned a bit? Maybe, but wasn't it worth taking? He almost got a goalie many people feel is a sure starter in this league for just a small amount of money and no assets in a trade. I think he needed to go to the mat for the guy. But, there is plenty of hope.

Look around the West right now. There are all sorts of goalies that were acquired for little or nothing that are doing well for their teams.

Craig Anderson signed in Colorado as a free agent in July for 2 years and just $3.6m total. That's right, he is starting for the Avs and one of the main reasons they are in 3rd place and he is making $1.5m - about what Jere Lehtinen is making this season.

The Coyotes continue to ride one of my favorite goalie in the league, Ilya Bryzgalov. Bryzgalov was acquired from the Ducks through Waivers (of all of Brian Burke's great moves during his tenure with the Ducks, how does he allow his back-up to stay in his own division? Trade him to the east for a bag of pucks so you don't have to see him half a dozen times per season!) Ilya then extended his deal with Phoenix for 3 years and just under $13 million.

It can be done. We have had many years of Belfour and Turco. We always have felt like we knew who the goalie was and that he was one of the pillars of the way the team was structured. It won't be easy to find the next one on the fly, but they are out there - and you don't always have to make them one of your highest paid players.

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Bob,
I bet by now your email box has been avalanched by the hundreds, perhaps thousands, of emails regarding the cowboys, but I was hoping you could impart some of your hockey wisdom upon me. Lately my friend and I have been debating whether or not the Stars should make a move by the trade deadline. We both agree that they seem to be a few pieces away from being a true contender in the west. The disagreement comes on what those pieces should be. I believe that the Stars problems are rooted in their poor defensive play and goaltending. I suggest getting a premier defender like a Dion Phaneuf or Jay Bouwmeester. My friend on the otherhand feels that the Stars should join the Ilya Kovalchuk sweepstakes. I know it seems idealistic on both of our suggestions, given the Stars current financial situation, but we would like your opinion for the sake of arguement. Should this team make either of these moves, or should they stay put with the current incarnation?


They must address the defense corps and goaltending situation before we drop a single puck in 2010-11. Now, we must figure out how they do it. At the deadline? Perhaps. Trade? Free Agency? More cash from the owner? Who knows. But, there is no doubt in my mind that this team as presently constituted is not ready to win in the playoffs of the NHL. They need more on the blueline and they need a goalie that they believe in for the future.

I don't think this team is impossibly far away, but I think we can all agree that they are a ways from being a finished product that other teams fear. Too many holes at this point in time.

But, as for your debate with your friend, I think the Stars have a proper amount of guns up front. The question is whether they play the right 200-foot style to please Nieuwendyk/Crawford. Are they tough to play against? Are they cohesive? Are they consistent? These are more questions to either answer or address with a move.

* One final note: The other day, I was on the treadmill with the NHL Network. They ran a 30-minute program called the "Ovechkin Ovation" which was pretty much Alex's highlight film. I loved it, and it reruns today at 5pm, so I wanted to let you know you need to see it. He is a genius on the ice and for my dollar, the one guy I would pay to see above all others in the NHL today. Check it out.

Expect to see this goal broken down in great detail:

Saturday, January 09, 2010

Stars Mailbag

I wanted to share with the masses some fo the feedback I received based on the "Problems with the Stars" column I wrote a few days back, after the Devils-Rangers back-to-back debacle:


I think I love you more and more Bob. I have been saying this for 2 years!! Robidas is the perfect #3. Grossman might have potential to be a #2 (he has shut down Big Joe in the playoffs), but his passing is never going to compete with the high-end puck moving D-men. The Stars need someone who can make the first pass out of the zone. My distaste for the Stars has risen to a level where I only check the box scores and tsn.ca headlines to see if they have made a trade for a D-man yet. This makes me very sad. I am dreading what I am going to do for sports in February after the SuperBowl.

You could have also mentioned how not having a #1/2 D pair forces you to play forwards on the point on the PP, because that's all we have that can bring the heat.

Also as a side-note. The Hurricanes won a cup a few years ago with a no-name defense.. so as impractical as it is, it has happened. Cam Ward stood on his friggin noggin and was the Conn Smythe Winner to pull it off though.

Sonny


Thanks, Sonny. But, I would not ignore these guys. I think they are going through an extremely tough spell, but the few things that fire me up include that they have plenty of quality youth that is showing us that a better day is not far away, and they are not far out of the mix for this year as it stands. I think once Marc Crawford and Joe Nieuwendyk are given a full chance to put some pieces in place that have a chance to execute their vision, we will see things pick up dramatically. At least, that is my hope.
---------------

Bob,

Nice analysis on the d-man payroll thread. I guess I shouldn't be surprised that we rank dead last, but it is pretty eye opening. I completely agree with you on defensive depth of this team. I love Robidas, since Zubie is gone, he is by far my favorite player... but he is being asked to do way too much as a #1 guy.

I will, however, respectively disagree with you about Turco. I've been tracking the quality of the pucks that go by him this year, and he has just been horrible. I don't know what's going on with him, but it seems to me that he is no longer capable of being a franchise goalie. He just lets in way too many soft goals. (See goal #1, #2, #3 from last night.) It doesn't matter who is playing in front of you if you are going to let in an unobstructed 60 footer on the short side.

Keep up the good work.

Hockey John


Hockey John, it seems to me that Marty's foe is sometimes between his ears. It seems that when things weigh on his mind, his play suffers. That can be any number of elements, but I would say this season it is both contract uncertainty and perhaps a lack of confidence that he is surrounded by a proper supporting cast to help stop enemy attacks.

That being said, a true "franchise goalie" can block all circumstances out and still rise up and pull the team with him. He needs to be better. He needs to be able to carry this team. And he hasn't, yet, since the '08 playoff run. I do however, have a hard time forgetting about Vancouver '07, Anaheim '08, San Jose '08, and even Game 5 in Detroit in '08, too. Marty has proven he can play at a certain level, and since his blueline has been stripped down, he has not approached it.

Part of it is on him. But, how much? There is the rub, and something the front office has to figure out correctly. It is one thing to bid Marty a fond farewell when his contract expires, but then what? Who is between your pipes then?

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Bob,

I just read your article off the stars blog and I couldn’t agree with you more. The stars do not have a huge presence on the blue line, a go-to tandem to put out there when the other teams number 1 line comes out. Robida and Grossman are ok but they are not a physical presence nor are they a Nick Lidstrom. Prime example, last night Gaborick goes offsides and swats Robidas down to the ice like he was nothing and also I can’t remember who it was but that left winger that took the puck to the goal running over Marty, ripping his helmet off. Razor even said that guy knew what he was doing and my belief is that unless Barch or Ott are on the ice the other team knows no one is going to come at them. It is also oblivious that the Stars don’t have a lot of depth in the minors because when we had injurys a couple weeks ago they brought Fortunious up to play in 7 or 8 games. I know I was his first games but he is a little runt and was getting run over and he had to be a negative player. They need to make a sign or two at the deadline to get a couple guys in here, now will they do that with the current ownership, probably not but they will not contend until that happens.

Any chance Zubov comes back for a late season run?

Marty was terrible last night, those goals should never go in from those distances.

Scott


Scott, to me, that was the most disappointing thing about the road-trip. I felt this team wasn't engaged. When someone runs your goalie, or when Sean Avery is challenging every member of your team, you have to stick up for yourself and eachother. I believe in the worlfpack mentality. If you don't have it, you don't have a chance. I needed Barch or Ott or Morrow or someone to stand up to him, and for whatever reason, I didn't see it. That is discouraging, and if it becomes a trend, it must be addressed. In the NHL, if you are not there for eachother, then you are not there at all.

And I don't think Zubov is in the plans. I think that is a band-aid. If we can get Zubov at 25 years old again, I am in. But, we might need a time machine for that, and I am all out of crystals.

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You could not have been more correct with this blog. The correlation of Turco's performance to his Defenseman is so true. The one thing I cannot decide, is Turco's confidence gone due to the defense in front of him, his skills are deteriorating due to age or both. Regardless what it is, he has really sucked as of late. With their AHL goalie winning the player of the month honors I think it is time to bring him up.


David

Brent Krahn, who is 28 this year, did win the AHL goaltender of the month last month, and Matt Climie is approaching his 27th birthday and handles the rest of the duty in Austin. I am not saying they cannot help you, because I have no idea. But, I do know that 28 is an awfully old prospect. I guess we may see.

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Greetings,

Very logical approach Mr. Sturm. I wonder a couple of things:

1. Does the salary spent on defensemen correlate to the current conference standings?

2. Every Program Manager I have worked for has a slush fund.

3. We have a trade deadline coming up. Is it reasonable for Stars management to spend for a #1 defenseman and actually/commit to keeping him on something longer than a 1 year contract in order to give the younger guys a rotation?

4. Are Mr. Ribero, Mr. Richards and Mr. Modano passing on their tribal knowledge of the face-off circle to the others?

Lastly, I am one of two Stars fans here in beautiful Rocket Center WV. (my wife is the other). Would you be good enough to forward my concerns to the appropriate Stars management staff?

James


James:

1. No. No team is spending more this season on player salaries than the Toronto Maple Leafs. Only 2 teams have fewer points in the NHL than the Maple Leafs. Money isn't everything, but it sure doesn't hurt.

2. I don't believe that is the case in this NHL.

3. I think the thing to do was to get in the mix for a free agent in the summer of '08 when you actually had some money. But, they settled on Sean Avery. Since then, the wallet has been empty, and now I don't think there will be adding of payroll until the Rangers are sold. So, every dollar in must be a dollar out.

4. I would think so, but, remember, Ribeiro has a career faceoff win percentage of about 45%, and even though Brad Richards is over 50% since becoming a Dallas Star, he is 48% for his career. Only Modano has been better than 50 in his career. 52% is his career mark, so I am not sure this entire team has anything that approaches the '99 Stars. Check out what they rolled out there (who took more than 200 faceoffs that year):

Nieuwendyk 63%
Carbonneau 53%
Modano 51%
Hrkac 48%
Langenbrunner 45%
Skrudland 45%

The team was at 53%, a mark that would often lead the NHL. And Nieuwendyk's 63% was 740 wins in 1170 draws! Zenon Konopka of the Lightning leads the league at 62% this year. Not very familiar with Zenon's work.