Bag of Pucks: Summer Free Agency Edition

I have to admit that reading glowing reviews on the direction of an organization without equal time to cynicism is quite a change around here (at least for this particular writer).  I am sure it won't continue indefinitely, but with regards to the Dallas Stars and their 14 month run with the organizational makeover, the news continues to be better than good.  In the last several days, the Stars have again upgraded their mix with Jason Spezza, Ales Hemsky, Patrick Eaves, and Anders Lindback.  2 Top 6 forwards in 1 day, and 2 depth additions as well.  Then, on top of that was the unexpected signing of Vern Fiddler, after most expected that he would elect to take more money and ice time elsewhere.

Frankly, the reviews are fantastic with respect to the talent acquisition department, and the continued influx of players who are now ready to add to the troops that took this franchise back to the playoffs this past spring.

Jim Nill and his staff is receiving the accolades for these acquisitions again, like the "summer of Seguin" in 2013, and there is no debate that if you were to rank the transactions in the last 14 months, the #1 move should remain the hiring of a General Manager who is regarded across the league as one of the best in the business.  The feelings, going back to last spring, were that whoever could convince Nill to take over the helm of their organization would reap the benefits for years and years.  That much has delivered to be true so far, with the future seemingly plenty bright.

However, I don't want to forget to recognize the ownership that has made this possible.  As I have said before, Joe Nieuwendyk had his stamp on the farm system full of talented kids, but was sabotaged by bankruptcy and indifferent ownership for much of his tenure.  Tom Gaglardi wanted his own guy to run things when he was ready to invest heavily in the side, and Nieuwendyk did not represent a fresh start.  Gaglardi had Nill identified by Jim Lites and company, and then got the deal done to hire his guy.  From there, it would only work with aggressive moves, cash investment, and faith in the process.

And for that, I want to make sure Gaglardi is recognized as vital and imperative to this process.  When I was younger, I counted owners of franchises as unimportant figureheads who were just the suits they would show in the crowd and pretty much interchangeable.  And maybe, in the 1980s when I had that impression, that was closer to the truth.  But, in the present day sports-landscape, either a team has an owner that has ambition to push his team to achievement or you wish you did.  An owner's motivation could be to fill his arena (to maximize profits) or to get the Cup, or both.  The Stars' last owner was driven to get a Cup and was a fan's dream.  But, when he over expanded his sports empire, he was bitten by spending more than he had and he suddenly became a fan's nightmare - An owner who could not be bothered with a team's fortunes because his financial empire was collapsing.

For that reason, we should be slow in our judgements of this owner in the long-term.  Only the actions over many, many years will reveal his full body of work.  However, based on what we do know, I am tickled that Gaglardi appears to be everything I hoped - a guy who wanted badly to put a great team together and is willing to trust brilliant people to help him do that (the one flaw in Jerry Jones' game).  So, enter Nill and then, Lindy Ruff.

But, if you wanted to know if they were satisfied with all of the good signs from 2013-14, then the first week in July 2014 should help you see.  No, they are not.

There were several things about the 2013-14 Stars that were very impressive.  However, the power play was never completely sorted out, the face-off wins were barely more than the face-off losses, and it could easily be argued that the Stars 2nd line was actually one of the best 3rd lines in the sport.

Enter Jason Spezza.

Below is a complete list of the 9 centers in hockey who were both both above 200 points in the last 4 seasons (at least 50 points a year - including the lockout year) and in the Top 50 face-off men in hockey:

Patrice Bergeron, Jonathan Toews, Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, Pavel Datsyuk, Jason Spezza, Sidney Crosby, Claude Giroux and Anze Kopitar.

That is the entire list.  Now, please examine that list for players who were available on the open market.

Maybe Joe Thornton and Jason Spezza.  Spezza, by the way, missed nearly the entire season in 2012-2013, otherwise, he might be well up that chart even higher.

I won't lie, I might have preferred Thornton because of my better familiarity with his complete game, his size, and his 3 years under contract, and his mastery of the power play; but it doesn't appear he will be moved by the Sharks.  Of course, he is also 4 years older than Spezza and therefore if the Stars can make sure this isn't a 1-year rental, then there are tons of things to like here.

They did give up some fine young players, Alex Chiasson the one most are familiar with.  For me, I hoped all along to flip Chiasson this summer as the center piece for a number of reasons, including my personal feelings that he was overachieving with his production early in his career (Sell high!) and that the Stars are loaded at wing in their system.  He made the most sense to be valuable to others and to be able to center a big deal, and it worked perfectly.

Spezza is not without a few concerns, as trusted voices from around the league have argued he is a bit "too perimeter" these days, but I am more than interested in seeing how a change of scenery suits him.  He seems to be exactly what they need as they have lacked a perfect #2 center compliment to Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn and now they seem to have it.  Add to that Ales Hemsky on a reasonable 3 year deal on a proven winger who turns 31 in August, and the Stars have a 2nd line just like that.  Valeri Nichushkin goes to one line and the other wing can go to either Erik Cole, Colton Sceviour, or my pick, young Brett Ritchie by Thanksgiving.

That fixes your depth issue as Eakin/Roussel/Garbutt are a fine #3 line that jumps on the opposition #1s, your face-off issue - with Spezza, Fiddler, Benn, and Eakin (who is by far the worst, but partly because he is taking draws against that list of centers above), your power play issue as Spezza can really add something there, and you really haven't lost anything of note off your playoff team.

Wow.

Now, many of you are asking how this fixes the blue-line, and I did not forget I have been pounding that table for years and years.  But, the idea that they could grow and develop their defense group without losing any of them in their pursuit of Spezza and Seguin is fantastic work.  Now, we expect the full arrivals of Patrik Nemeth, Jamie Oleksiak, and John Klingberg in the next 12 months, with Trevor Daley/Alex Goligoski and Jordie Benn/Brenden Dillon providing strong play on the way into the playoffs last year.  It isn't Shea Weber and Ryan Suter, but it is homegrown (mostly), reasonably priced, and young with younger pushing them from behind.

The bottom line there is that the best defense is to keep the puck.  And the Stars weren't Los Angeles or Chicago in puck possession or Corsi last year, but they were in the Top 10 with the truly strong teams in the NHL.  Now, they are adding a formidable 2nd line and the ability to win draws at a very high rate (so they start plays with the puck).  This means you are not dropping back and playing defense in your own end all day, and that keeps your defensemen from having to defend.

It looks good on paper, and it looked good on the ice last year.  This seems to make too much sense not to try for the prices they paid.

Now, back to Gaglardi - I have received a number of questions about how many players are on the roster and how close the Stars are to the cap ceiling.  That's right - the cap CEILING!  This tells us that they are looking to make more moves, I would think to gain back some cap room that will allow them to make a move at the deadline to give them that final boost over the finish line next season.  Yes, kids, we are back to the days of considering the cap ceiling, not signing Eric Nystrom off waivers to get into compliance with the salary cap floor like the Stars did 2011.

There is great competition to overcome and higher hills to climb than merely the #8 seed, but if this doesn't get you fired up for Opening Night, I don't know what to tell you.

This thing is being built right before your very eyes.

Bag of Pucks - April 15 - Playoffs! Playoffs! Playoffs!

They made it, guys.

I know that the next mission is even more important and certainly is formatted in such a way that shorter attention spans can join in, but the most vital of accomplishments for the 2013-14 Dallas Stars was put in the bank last Friday.  It was a very enjoyable evening that will be remembered as the night this franchise punched its ticket back into the post-season by hammering a slumping St Louis Blues team on Fan Appreciation Night.

The accomplishment - said by some to be 5 years behind schedule and by others to be a year ahead of schedule - was required to catch the attention of a sporting city that often turns its back on teams that cannot at least qualify for their post-seasons.  That may seem finicky, but given that over half the league qualifies for its playoffs in the National Hockey League, it never seemed like a difficult prerequisite until this latest stretch in the wilderness.

It started with retirement of legends Mike Modano, Sergei Zubov and Jere Lehtinen all at roughly the same time.  We all wondered what would happen when those fantastic talents were no longer around to carry this franchise and now we have had it made abundantly clear.  There is no easy replacing of legends.  That is why we call them legends.

After the retirements - or in some respects, during it - we also were hit hard by bankruptcy and the franchise in such disrepair that the league had to basically take over the team to make sure that the bills and the paychecks were taken care of in a timely fashion.  The Tom Hicks run had hit an iceberg when he decided to buy another sporting franchise across the pond right before the economic crash of 2008 and suddenly, his baseball, soccer, and hockey teams all had to pay the price of a man who had over-extended his finances.  None of them had the money to compete anymore, and eventually, all 3 had to be sold to more capable owners.

It likely should be noted that today, the Rangers financial health has never been better, Liverpool's financial health has fully recovered (as has its club's fortunes), and the Stars have been taken over by an owner who was wildly cheered on Friday night when his face appeared on the big screen over the ice.  Tom Gaglardi took over the franchise in the 2011-12 season, but then moved slowly and deliberately on how to remake the team - especially with the lockout looming.

But, after the 2013 campaign came up short, he moved swiftly with the hiring of General Manager Jim Nill on April 29, 2013.  As many of you know, that was a move that was saluted around the league as a stroke of brilliance, due to the respect he had built in over 2 decades in the Detroit front office.  He took his time in finding his first coach, but then settled on another man with a sparkling resume, Lindy Ruff, to take over behind the bench in late June.

A week later, the trigger was pulled on a trade that required a large payment, but the bounty was Tyler Seguin and Rich Peverley.  Seguin was the rarest of rare birds, a legitimate #1 goal-scoring center.  A quick look at the list of players who ended this season with more points than Seguin in the entire sport are Sidney Crosby (26 years old), Ryan Getzlaf (28), and Claude Giroux (26).  Seguin, who just turned 22 in January can absolutely be considered amongst the best young players in all of the sport - but, now you might just call him one of the best players in all of the sport, period.

With Seguin fitting so well with Stars' Captain Jamie Benn - who finished 10th in NHL scoring - the Stars have a future that is present.  They are both now playing where they are naturally supposed to play, with Benn back on the wing and Seguin back in the middle.  And they fit together because quality fits with quality.  Year one was supposed to be a "get acquainted" season as Nill and Ruff decide who fits for the future and who doesn't.  2014-15 is supposed to be the massive step forward year, and with the resources available in the summer to make another bold move to get that one more giant piece, many of us are excited about where that road may lead.

But, they made it in this year.

Now, that wasn't easy.  They barely are a playoff team this year.  In fact, by last year's format, with the Stars in the Pacific and Detroit and Columbus still in the West, the Stars don't make the playoffs.  Also, if the league went back to the old format where the Top 4 in each of the 4 divisions made it in to truly divisional playoffs, the Stars would have missed (finishing 5th in the Central).  But, with this brand new modified divisional playoff that includes two conference wildcards, one of which would be sent out to play in a divisional playoff that they weren't even a part of, the Stars are in, and for the next month or so, they are a Pacific division team again.

And here come the Ducks.  The Stars are matched up against the #1 seed from Anaheim so as much as we were happy to say goodbye to the constant match ups with teams in California, we have to deal with Corey Perry and Getzlaf all over again in a clash of foes that feature 1-2 punches.  In fact, if any team can look at Benn and Seguin and offer a knowing nod, it would be Perry and Getzlaf.  They have been running this game for several years.

But, this series is perhaps a chance for Kari Lehtonen to rise up and earn a bit of credibility on a national scene.  Anaheim has goaltender chaos and Kari, who has played briefly in the playoffs a long, long time ago could be the advantage the Stars need to take a big step forward.

I doubt the Stars are being given a huge chance nationally, but I will tell you that when you look at it from a number of perspectives, the Stars look like they can compete with the Ducks.  We shall see how they respond to the bright lights of the big stage, but at first glance, there is confidence to compete.  You just wonder how they will deal with Benn and Seguin being hounded by the shackles of the playoff game-plans will be handled.  I assume they will shrug it off and keep going, but that is the matchup.  And it should be awesome.

Meanwhile, it is a chance for old friend Stephane Robidas to return to Dallas.  This trade has never made sense to me (given the absurd lack of depth on the blue-line), and with Brenden Dillon's health in question, it would sure be nice to have Robidas on our side until this summer (when he is a UFA), but the trade was made and it is done.  I assume he will be involved in a scrum in Game 1 and we will quickly be reminded that friendships are fun, but once the game starts everyone fights for the sweater they wear.  That is how hockey players are programmed and fans follow quickly when he is on the side of Francois Beauchemin (for once).

I think the Stars can win this series, but given how many variables there are, I do not pick with much confidence.  The Stars still have weaknesses and are not ready to contend for a cup, but I do think that they are on the right path.

I think that special teams and goaltending decides these, and I really expect the massive bodies of Perry and Getzlaf will surely remind us that Trevor Daley and Alex Goligoski need assistance from a 6'4, 230 pound #1 defensemen who can play 28 minutes in the summer.  I think Kari can cancel some of that out, but will it be enough?

My head says Ducks in 7.  But, I am so giddy to be in the playoffs that I am telling my head to shove it and I am forecasting a very close and drama filled battle that will be decided on some overtime goals.

I think Cody Eakin shows his value and the Stars somehow pull this thing out.

Stars in 7 (with a double overtime winner in the Pond in the final game).  There, my cheerleading has already started.

Don't forget, the mission was to make the playoffs.  This year, it is all with casino money and the jubilation of playing high stakes hockey again.  Next year, we can get entitled and angry about a post-season crash and burn, but this one spring, let's just enjoy the ride.  The team can take a deep breath and know that this is all frosting.  The cake has been made.

Here we go.

Bag of Pucks - April 8 - 4 Games To Go

Pretty much everything that could be said about this thing has already been said.  This hockey team, brand new in so many ways, is trying to quiet its history and make it into the Western Conference playoffs.  But, to do so, they have to play their best hockey at the very end of the season - something they have not done in many years.  And, they are trying to do so against a team in the Phoenix Coyotes that has had their number since the Stars fired Dave Tippett back in 2009.

So, if historical trends are how you make your wagers, you would still fancy the Coyotes.

But, if you believe in computer simulations and statistical models that are free of historical bias, you think the Stars have a 74% likelihood.

I guess we are going to have to settle this on the ice.  And here is what remains:

Game #	Dallas (87)	Phx (86)
79	Tue - NSH	Tue - At Clb
80	Wed - CLB	Thu -At Nsh
81	Fri  -  STL	Sat - SJ
82	Sun - At Phx	Sun - DAL

As you can see, the likelihood of Game #82 on Sunday at 8pm being for all of the marbles and the final playoff spot is still very high.  This seems to have been looming on the horizon for the last few months, and it certainly feels like destiny suggests that it might come down to the final game, period, or even turn in a shootout.

Yikes.

This could have been easier, but of course, it never actually is.  They do things the hard way and although we may like to act like they have some active choice in the equation, the fact is that we often forget a very important component in this formula; they are a team that has weaknesses.

Therefore, under that truth, if a team is good, but not great this is what you get.  Exciting and flawed. Young and inexperienced.  They then will do what this team does - play well enough to win games against Boston, St Louis, Chicago, and the powers of the NHL.  And then turn around and lose games to Calgary, the New York Islanders, and Florida when you have a 2-goal lead in a game that you simply cannot allow yourself to lose.  

To lose that game Sunday in Florida after the win on Saturday at Tampa Bay was simply this team in a nutshell. They are so promising and exciting, and yet, they also are still some substantial pieces away from having all of their bases covered.  They still are highly leveraged on the top players on their roster to cover any flaws they have below.  

That has been lost in all of this, because we want to believe that we can just take the elevator to the top floor from the basement because now we have Tyler Seguin and friends to dig this thing out of its ditch.  And yes, the new recruits have been a fantastic foundation, but we cannot forget that there are still some things that the team is trying to manage through that is not ideal.  

They are a team that is learning a lot about themselves as they go.  They are seeing guys emerge through adversity and necessity that are climbing to newer heights.  The defense corps is where I always point when I talk about improvement, but before they play this final week, I thought we should talk about a few reasons why they are still on the verge of their first post-season in 6 years:

Alex Goligoski - I have not witnessed a more polarizing player in a Stars uniform in quite some time amongst the hard core Stars' fans.  In fact, to say polarizing is to argue that there are some that say he is fantastic and that is actually not true.  It seems that everyone generally agrees he is very poor at his job.  But is he?  

After Jamie Benn and Seguin, Goligoski is the Stars' leading scorer.   He is on the ice more than any player and it isn't really even close - over 240 minutes more than anyone else on the team.  He is their leading ice guy on the power play from defense and their leading penalty killer on the entire roster.  He has taken 2,166 shifts for this team when only Brenden Dillon is over 2,000 (2,006).  In other words, he has been run into the ground and played as hard as anybody could be played.  He has had plenty of moments where he has not looked like a Norris trophy winner, but when you consider the exhaustion level and leverage placed on him, despite his defensive limitations, hopefully you can understand what he is dealing with.  And yet, about 5 times a week, somebody emails or tweets me to ask if the Stars could just cut him.  Defensive zone play is not his specialty, but given the issues on the roster, he is the least objectionable option.  This team will be ready to contend when they don't need to ask Alex Goligoski to solve every issue they have (and Trevor Daley, for that matter), but that day isn't here, so turning on the guys who are trying to fix the issues is not the answer.  Getting better answers in here is the ultimate way to fix it.  But, for now, if you don't at least appreciate a thing or two about what he has done this season, then I think you are blinded by your previous conclusions.

Jordie Benn - I write about this team an awful lot, but I have hardly ever spent words on Jordie Benn.  I don't know why, but he just has never seemed like a guy that I needed to spend much time on.  That is my previous conclusions causing me sight problems.  You see, when Jamie Benn was starting to become a thing around here, the Allen Americans employed his brother.  I saw that as an act of convenience or perhaps even doing the Benn family a solid.  Honestly, I didn't know nor care that much about the arrangement because I knew that the Stars had a superstar who had a brother who also played hockey at a high level - just not high enough to be in the NHL.  

Well, that was 5 years ago.  And then with all the speed of a glacier, Benn's career has slowly but surely gone from an independent league castaway to an effective NHL regular.  I can't explain how it happened, but the 26 year old has now become a no-brainer when the lineup card is posted and has allowed himself a real career with hard work and a surprising amount of talent with the puck.  He has 20 points and is a +17, despite not really having a consistent playing partner for large swaths of his run, and has just proved to be reliable and gritty.  I have no idea where his road will lead him, nor do I know if he will be a regular here in 2 seasons, but for now, this team is only in this spot because of performances like the one they have received from Jordie Benn.  He has really been important to this haul.

=====

This is a team that has worked hard to get here and one that will give it all they have on the way in.  If they win their 3 home games, there is a real chance that Sunday won't matter.  But, Nashville is playing great, Columbus is playing for their playoff lives (and will start the game ahead, 1-0), and St Louis is annoyed about the last few meetings with Dallas as well as a statement opportunity for a potential playoff matchup.  

This home stand could be most unpleasant and given how the Stars never do things the easy way, expect a few more turns in the road.  

But we are finally here.  Nothing we can say will have any bearing on the outcome.  It is all up to those 20 men in the Stars' room.

4 to go.  

Bag of Pucks - April 1 - 12 days to go

This whole thing is draining.  And to think that for almost a decade (about a decade ago) we functioned as hockey fans hearing about this phenomenon, but then not totally grasping what people meant when they talked about the group of teams who basically consider their battle for the playoffs to be their playoffs.

The Stars back then were always assured of a playoff spot by Game #65 or so, and then would just play out the string by battling for seeding and getting guys rested and healthy for the 2 month march that lies ahead.  Those were the days.  Memories with Vinnie Paul....

Now, back to reality.  Because now, this Dallas hockey club is in the thick of this battle yet again.  They have put themselves in a position to be a part of this battle and it has given most of us a roller coaster of emotions since before the Olympic break.  After the olympic break has been ups and downs like you wouldn't believe, but now here we stand with 8 games to play and the entire battle up in the air still.

It is emotionally taxing to say the least as since the start of March, I have checked every morning with the computer simulation models to offer the playoff probability odds of the Stars making he playoffs.  Back on March 4, it looked like this: Dal 57%, Winn 19%, Pho 18%, Van 15%, Nash 2%.

By March 7th, it had moved slightly to this: Dallas 61%, Pho 34%, Winnipeg 9%, Van 5%, Nash 1%. They were on a roll.  On March 9th, I really enjoyed the numbers: Dallas 72%, Phoenix 25%, Van 8%, Winn 6%, Nashville 1%.  Yes!  They are fine.  I even put Minnesota back in the mix for the 7 seed on March 12th: Minn 83%, Dallas 77%, Phoenix 34%, Winnipeg 3%, Van 2%.

But, then came the Calgary/Winnipeg/Pittsburgh/Philadelphia swerve down, and by March 17th, the numbers started to turn back towards Phoenix: Minnesota 90%, Dallas 64%, Phoenix 40%, Van 3%, Winn 2%, Nash 1%.  By March 21, the computer models spit out some reality I wasn't liking very much: Minn 94%, Phx 68%, Dallas 35%, Van 2%, Winn 2%.

They got back from the road trip and beat Ottawa, so the morning of March 23 it looked better: Minn 89%, Phx 59%, Dal 51%, Van 2%, but they were still looking up from the 9th spot.

Next game, they beat Winnipeg.  So, March 25th? Minn 92%, Dallas 55%, Phx 50%, Van 2%. - Finally back over the Coyotes, but barely.

But, lose at Chicago a week ago today and Phoenix goes out East and keeps winning.  How are they doing that without Mike Smith?  Why does Dave Tippett want to haunt us every single year?  So, March 28th: Phx 81%, Minn 77%, Dal 37%, Van 4%.  Dallas back down to a distant 9th.

Return home last weekend and spanks Nashville, then the next night go back to St Louis and do it again.  Meanwhile, Minnesota goes into Phoenix and scores a regulation win.  Minnesota places its grip hard on the 7th seed, and Phoenix finally shows some weakness.  Now, Dallas is earning its way in, right?  Let's check the numbers on Sunday morning, March 30th: Minn 84%, Dallas 63%, Phx 52%.

Now, today.  Minnesota with another big win in Los Angeles.  On the morning of April 1st, Minn 92%, Dallas 60%, Phoenix 48%.

So, let's review the last month with the help of a 1990's era graphic:

Just like a roller coaster of your hockey emotions, right?

Now, of course, it does beg the question about whether or not we should be watching this pot, because it likely won't boil if we watch it this closely, but it shows you how the emotional drain on the teams at the edge of the playoffs can be immense.  Again, St Louis and Chicago don't experience this, so they can have an uncluttered mind when they reach the playoffs.  Meanwhile, you can clearly see how #7 and #8 seeds can be easy prey, because they exhausted every ounce of energy just to get in to the post-season.  By the time they get in, they collapse in a pile.

But, as anyone reading this already knows, we should be so lucky.

So where, specifically are we this morning?  Well, the idea that Minnesota is going to crash and burn on their road trip that looked so difficult (at Phoenix, at Los Angeles, and at Chicago) is not happening any more than the Phoenix road trip that would begin their demise (at NY Rangers, at Pittsburgh, and at New Jersey).  Good teams don't cave in on themselves, and the Coyotes and Wild aren't going to eliminate themselves.

Here is what everyone has left in this final 13-day stretch:

Game #	Dallas (83)	Phx (84)	Minn (89)
75	At Wash
76	At Car	WPG
77	At TB	At LA	At Chi
78	At Fla	EDM	PIT
79	NSH	At Clb	At Wpg
80	CLB	At Nsh	BOS
81	STL	SJ	STL
82	At Phx	DAL	NSH

As you can see, Dallas has the games, and the most road games - by far - but, they also have very few powers or Cup contenders left.

It is going to come down, most likely, to the Stars pulling results from their last Eastern Conference road trip.

And that, has been quite an issue this season.  Everyone plays 16 Eastern Conference games on the road, and through 12, the Stars have a 4-7-1 record.  That is 9 points from 12 games.  Meanwhile, Phoenix is 8-4-3 with 1 road game in the East left (at Columbus) and that gives them 19 points in 15 games.  If the Stars can get 5 or 6 points on this 4 game Eastern trip, they will be ok.

If they can't, well you know what happens.

93 points should get you in.  But, that means 5-3 in the final 8 (and if 1 of the 5 wins is at Phoenix at the end).  They must have 10 more points, and to feel safe, they likely need to try to get to 95.

This is great theater, but one of these teams is going to be awfully disappointed in 13 days.

Survive.

Bag of Pucks - March 25 - Game #70

The following is a column written on Monday, before the Stars beat Winnipeg 2-1 and the Coyotes lost in overtime against the New York Rangers, 4-3.  Things change rapidly out on these streets, but just about everything below applies just how it was written:

If you know me even a little bit, you know that I have looked at the Stars fortunes as a franchise over the last 15 years from every possible direction.  During hockey season, I absolutely see every shift of every game and do not enjoy being unable to do it live on those rare occasions where that cannot be avoided.  I follow this team very closely, and therefore, have clearly crossed the line from covering a team as part of a job description, into following a team that I wish to see do well.

I would never call myself a cheerleader, in fact, many of you think my brand of tough love when I follow this franchise is actually over-harsh, which would fall in line with my natural pessimism about my team's fortunes.  I learned long ago when having a team that I love that my best ability to cope with failure was to expect it.   That protected my spirit from being crushed when the opposite is true where you always expect success and then are steamrolled when they fall short of your hopes. Therefore, I generally find myself entering crucial games with a bit of a sense of dread, feeling like I know what is around the next corner.  Bad things, man.  And then, when my side shows it can handle this challenge, I am very pleased.  Happiness is such a pleasant surprise in sports.  Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed, right?

I realize this tact is not for everyone, but it helps.  The weird thing is that I haven't felt it much this year.  I find myself as optimistic as I am capable of being with this version of the Dallas Stars.  I think this team will make the playoffs and I think when they do that they will be capable of turning some heads.  I also think that this is the tip of the iceberg of what the next 5 years or so hold.

I am not saying it is rational, in fact, I would argue that feelings about a team or a game are generally irrational.  I don't know why I feel pessimistic about my teams most years, but this year optimistic about a young group in Victory Green.  It has very little bearing on the outcome, either way, so don't worry about me.

But, I do have to tell you that as we have played out the string of the spring of 2014, we are nearing a place in the schedule where there is a very huge disturbance in the force.  In a season where I have had the cup half-full for the entire campaign, I will confess to you, loyal reader, that the next portion of our ride comes with an advisory and a warning to take heed.  If you touch a hot stove enough times, you begin to train your behavior to avoid hot stoves.  These trained feelings reappear when conditions are right.  And look, we have arrived in a spot that is in close proximity of a hot stove.

The Stars played Game #70 on Saturday afternoon.  It was a wonderful day where they took down Ottawa in a game that required a committed effort and another Saturday where a late push took the game over the finish line in the right direction.  It was a game of determination, strong goaltending, bad feelings, and secondary scoring - all good things that lead to success in the playoffs.

The win combined with a Boston win in the desert against Phoenix put the Stars back in a virtual dead heat with the Coyotes where on this day the Coyotes have a 58% likelihood of the post season and the Stars right on their heels with a 51% case.  Phoenix has 11 games to play on 79 points and the Stars sit at 77 with 12 to play.

Dallas has 5 more at home, 7 more on the road.  The Coyotes have 5 more at home, 6 more on the road.  The Stars will need to go out East one more time (which has been a real issue this year) and the Coyotes are on an airplane doing that this week.

Dallas owns the tie-breaker with 1 more regulation win at this juncture, but as I have said plenty in the last few weeks, this is most likely going to roll all the way to game #82 in Phoenix on April 13 for all of the marbles and the right to open in the playoffs against St Louis.

So let's get back to why Game #70 is associated with the 5 year trend of Stars issues and why they have to now prove they can run the next 3-week gauntlet that lies ahead of them.

In the 2008-09 season, after 69 games, the Stars were sitting pretty at a spot in the standings that was the #8 seed and were tied with Minnesota for the final playoff spot after 70 games at 74 points.  Unfortunately, they finished the season on a run where they only won 3 games the rest of the way and ended the year on a 3-7-3 slide altogether to finish 8 points out of the playoffs and saw everyone fired.

In 2009-10, they were never really in the race, but for the sake of the conversation, let's remember that it was an Olympic-break year and that the team was the only team in the NHL to not win 3 consecutive games the entire season.  They did go 7-5 down the stretch, including the fairy tale like endings for Mike Modano, Marty Turco, and Jere Lehtinen, but they finished 7 points out of the playoffs.

In 2010-11, they were in the 7th playoff spot after 70 games at 82 points (wow!) and actually were in a great position, but it was a very tight pack of teams as we would soon find out.  They then collapsed and lost 7 of 8 games after Game #70 and ended up the final dozen with a 4-8 record and finished with an amazing 95 points, but as you will recall needed 2 more to make the playoffs and fell short the final day in St Paul against the Wild who spoiled the party to say the least.

The next year, in 2011-12, they were leading the division by 4 points and therefore the #3 seed at the 70 game mark.  They were in maybe their best spot in this run with 12 games to play.  They then absolutely fell on their faces again, finishing with just 3 wins in the final 12 games for a 3-9 record that was absolutely as gutting as it gets.  Somehow they went from 4 points up to 6 points back in just a dozen games as several teams zoomed by them in Glen Gulatzan's first year.

Finally, last year was a much more truncated 48-game season, but with 12 games to play (what would normally be the 70 game mark), they were 3 points out of the final playoff spot, and they actually caught fire and won 5 games in a row.  Unfortunately, they ended the year losing 6 of the final 7 and finished 7 points back again at the end with a 6-6 record down the stretch in the final dozen games.

2009:  3-6-3
2010:  7-4-1
2011:  5-4-3
2012:  3-9-0
2013:  6-5-1

Total:  24-28-8

60 games and 24 wins with 8 consolation points for 56 points in 60 games.  If you just count the 4 years they were actually in contention, that falls to 17 wins in 48 games with 7 additional points for 41 points.

How does this not apply to this 2014 Stars team?  Well, aside from Trevor Daley, nobody is left from that 2009 team.  Jamie Benn and Kari Lehtonen joined in 2010, and then came Alex Goligoski in 2011.  Those were the only 4 players who were in that game against the Wild in April of 2011.  The point is, that even though these last 5 years are fresh in our heads, most of them wearing Victory Green have been a part of between none and one or two of these 5 runs.  If their name is Tyler or Val or Sergei or Colton, they have no idea what you are talking about when you talk 2012 Stars collapse with them.

Sure, the arena is the same.  Ralph and Razor are the same.  I am still watching them play and so are you.  Beyond that?  Well, not much.

Now, how does that apply to this season?   Well, these boys might be new, but they still have to prove they are different than those that came before them.

12 games to play.  I think the Stars need a 9-3 finish to get in, with the outside possibility that 8-4 (93 points) can also get them in if one of those 8 is in Phoenix.

The math is not easy and with road games at Chicago, St Louis, Tampa Bay, and Washington all ahead it is going to be a real test of their mettle.

Can they pass the test of the final dozen games?  I think this is their year, but there are no more mulligans to play.  The importance of each game is huge and obvious.

They look to earn their own identity.  This is the way to do it.

Bag of Pucks - March 18 - Phoenix, Dave Tippett, and Your Emails

Let's just get this through our heads right now.  They aren't going away.  They aren't going to lay down and they sure aren't going to make this easy on you.

So, before we start this entire game, just understand that simple fact.

The Phoenix Coyotes, a team that you likely have very little regard for, owns the Dallas Stars right now and you might not even know it.

My first real thoughts about the Coyotes was disgust, due to a sadness that tiny, sweet Winnipeg was losing its Jets to indifferent Phoenix in 1996.  Then, they took advantage of William Wirtz and his Chicago nonsense by fleecing the Blackhawks for Jeremy Roenick that same summer, who then joined Keith Tkachuk and Shane Doan to form a scrappy team in the desert who were both entertaining and abrasive.

Next, of course, came the Hatcher/Modano/Roenick connection and the beauty of the one of the most heated feuds in Dallas Stars history, but as the Stars were winning every year, the Coyotes of Roenick and Tkachuk were 1-and-done for 6 out of 7 seasons and an annual punchline.  Late in the 2000-01 season, right about the time Wayne Gretzky was part of an ownership group that took over the team, Tkachuk was traded to St Louis and then later that summer, Roenick went to Philadelphia in free agency (the Stars thought they were in on him, and the settled for the Pierre Turgeon consolation prize).  Thus ended the Coyotes playoff era, save for one last 2002 1-and-done.

From there, 6 years of incredibly poor hockey, worse attendance, an arena move out of downtown Phoenix, Gretzky named himself coach, bankruptcy, rumors of several moves to Canada, and finally, the league takes over operation of the franchise.  You may recall that Brett Hull was their big free agent signing (2 years/$4.5m) before the 2004-05 season (the lockout cancelled season) and played the first 5 games of the 05-06 season in his dad's #9 before retiring with 1 assist as a Coyote.

So, how did the Dallas Stars, their brethren in bankruptcy in 2009 turn the Coyotes around?

Well, as you may recall, Dave Tippett was hired to replace Ken Hitchcock in 2002 (with Rick Wilson watching the bench in between for a few months) and the Stars went to the playoffs in each and every season from 02-03 up until '08 when they made their Western Conference Finals run.  As you may recall from last week, that led to the summer of Sean Avery's signing which was Hull's last big Stars idea and effectively set off a grenade in the Stars room that they did not recover from in that entire 2008-09 season.  Hull and Tippett were voted quickly off the island after that season, Hull by the hand of ownership (what was left of it) and then new GM Joe Nieuwendyk dismissed Dave Tippett on his first day in office in early June 2009, and thus ended Tippett's 9-year run in Dallas.  At the time, it was sold as a fresh start and pretty much everyone accepted that the era had "run its course" and it was time to turn the page.

Tippett returned to his cabin in Minnesota that year to examine his options and to relax, knowing he would land on his feet after doing such a fine job for so long in Dallas.  By the end of the summer, he had accepted an assistant coach job in Phoenix to work with Gretzky who had spent 4 years behind the Coyotes bench and never was able to make heads or tails of the whole thing.  He was also caught up with all of the many issues involving bankruptcy, relocation, and various ownership bids and it seemed his run was ending.  Tippett is the most qualified man in the room as Gretzky is stepping down amidst the chaos in September of 2009,  so he takes over what is widely regarded as the worst, most impossible job in the NHL.  A Phoenix team with limited talent, no funds, and no fan base is his next coaching gig.

Well, you know what happened next, but if not, here is a helpful graphic demonstrating the runs of Tippett's old team - Dallas, and his new team since the day he was fired in Dallas:

Year	Dal Points	Dal Playoffs	Phx Points	Phx Playoffs
09-10	88	No	107	Yes
10-11	95	No	99	Yes
11-12	89	No	97	Yes - WCF
12-13	48	No	51	No
13-14	75	???	77	???
Totals	395	0-4	431	3-4

That 36 point advantage for Phoenix is an average of 7 points per season difference between the Coyotes and the Stars.  That is significant and a sign of clear superiority over the stretch.

It is impossible to measure talent discrepancies and effects of each team dealing with bankruptcy and league control of their franchises, but if there is one single move that seems to have changed the course of two different franchises, it would seem to be the firing of Dave Tippett.  Can it be traced all the way back to Sean Avery?  Sure.  But, the dominoes didn't have to fall like this.  They did and it is what it is, but wow.

So, here we are on the morning of March 18th.  Phoenix has now pulled ahead of the Stars in the standings for the first time since the Olympic break, having played 2 more games than the Stars.  They still have Tippett, still have Mike Smith in goal, now also have Mike Riberio as one of their top offensive players and even old friend Jeff Halpern scored the game winner in Los Angeles last night.

They aren't going away.  They never do.  They have had the same financial handcuffs on and yet have still outplayed the Stars for just about every second of every day since Tippett was fired.  Now, the Stars try to turn history as the new regime in Dallas is just trying to fix the issues.  But, despite the divisional changes, it is still that annoying team in the desert standing in the way.

And, as we have mentioned, Game #82 is in Glendale.  Surely, that game will mean plenty, won't it?

Get used to them.  To go to the playoffs, you must face them and strike them down.  They are not going to go quietly.  Do not underestimate them.  You have no right to do so around these parts.

=====

OK, let's roll through some emails-

Would love to see a Sturm opinionated prospect update of the kids down below- 
Brian Waddle

Well, I will tell you Brian, I am not a great resource for knowledge of hockey prospects.  I get interested every year at draft time, but then I fall out of touch during most of their growth except for checking in with the brass from time to time on the relative progress of each of the kids.  The players who are in juniors, US colleges, or even the AHL are all subject to the roller coaster rides of development, so unless someone is interested in watching 10 games of a player, the are risking getting anecdotal info that might actually be misleading.  That is a long way of saying, I am not the guy to ask.

However, I do know that Jim Nill and his crew believe in taking it slow.  Very slow.  They believe in it because it has worked over the course of time to let each guy prove his worth at each level.  That is why Jamie Oleksiak has been in Austin all year and has been playing those who can aid his development at a level that can assist his confidence.  They have plenty of hopes for him, but they want him to set his own timetable.  In prospect talk, we get tired of hearing a guy's name for 3 years.  But, in hockey, that means he has gone from 18 to 21.  21 is still a very young athlete and they aren't all Tyler Seguin.

They are very high on Oleksiak and Brett Ritchie, John Klingberg, and Jack Campbell - and all can knock down the door as soon as next season.  They are moderately high on Radek Faksa, Patrik Nemeth, and Devin Shore, but they are the next wave or have a lower ceiling (in Nemeth's case).

The system is in good shape, but they are still thought of as in the bottom half of the league in terms of talent.  I am sure that would be way different if Val Nichushkin was on the farm - their ranking might be Top 10 with just that one adjustment - but, these rankings are not that important.  Production at the top level is ultimately all that matters.  The farm is better, but still plenty of room for studs who can take over games.

It seems a lifetime ago we lost the great Zubov. We have seen countless "next" prospects come and go. Vishnevskiy, Larsen, and now the new "next" prospect John Klingberg. If Oleksiak is to Matvichuk/Sydor, and Nemeth to Hatcher, then Klingberg must be Zubov. How high is Klingberg's stock in the front office? Will he be in NA next season? Do you think he might end up in the NHL by the end of 2015?
P.S. Who goes to make room?
P.S. Hope its Rome.
-Dylan

Klingberg is the one they are excited about as a dynamic defensemen with the puck who can do magical things on the point of a power play.  He is still in Sweden playing big minutes, and they would love for him to play a year in Austin before rushing him up here, but if there is a Zubov-comp (Yeesh, why do that to the poor kid) it would be that Swede.  The other, Nemeth, is thought of as a big, stay-at-home guy who might be the Nik Grossman of his office - I don't think Hatcher works for me.  So, could Klingberg get here within 12 months of this blog?  Sure.  But, that might be pushing their perfect plan.

But, yes, Dylan.  Odds are good that these new prospects will be more like Larsen than Zubov. There just is a thing called reality that always gets in the way of these guys breaking off Hall of Fame careers.

Bob,As great as Seguin and Benn have played together this year, the other forward spot seems to be open.  If we get to the playoffs, who do you see Lindy using on the top line with Jaime and Tyler? Does he go with Val or does he go with a veteran like Erik Cole?
Jordan 

Wow.  This assumes the Stars make the playoffs, so this would make me very happy under all scenarios.  I anticipate in just smiling throughout the playoffs if they happen.  No stress.  No expectations.  Just smiles that post-season hockey is back.  

But, I suppose if this were to happen, my calm would last until the puck drops and then I would raise my bar of expectations.  Who is their 3rd?  Well, honestly, Val is struggling recently and looks like he may have already played his best hockey of his 18th year on this planet.  Who can blame him?  This has been an incredible experience for him.  But, does he have still another gear?  

And if not, who goes up there to stay with 14 and 91?  Not sure.  Obviously, Rich Peverley was the best other option, so maybe this is something they work through for the next stretch.  Alex Chiasson spends enough time with those 2 on the power play that this might actually be the play.  I like Erik Cole where he is and that is as sort of the lead dog on the 2nd line and he has been great in the last month.  But, let's just focus on the playoffs, which for Dallas are happening right now, I suppose.  

On the new individual retirement banners, Broten's says -'95. He came back and played in 97 though and the original banner we put up said '97. What up with that? 

Another question...I get that Tim Thomas is an unconventional goalie and his style works for him, but does that style include getting way out of position by overly committing to plays in the crease or has he just had bad positioning in his few games here? Ryan

I will be honest.  I have no idea about your Broten banner question.  Let's just leave it at that.

On Tim Thomas, I rather enjoy his flopping around style.  It reminds me of an era gone-by that doesn't seem to exist much in the league anymore, and especially in a place that has Kari Lehtonen starting 65 games a year.  Thomas is a competitor, but certainly not teaching courses on sound tactics between the pipes.  It is compete and battle through and through for him.  I think that is his style and Marty Turco had a similar style that when it is right it is magical and when it is off, it looks like he is just flopping and guessing.  Not everyone is 6'5.  Those who are smaller and under 6 feet tall have to battle in other ways.  

It seems strange to me that the entire defense tends to follow the play of Alex Goligoski. If he's bad they're all bad and when he plays well they follow suit.  How is that he has such an overwhelming effect on the entire defense? 

Thanks,
Wes

Well, talking about Alex Goligoski is its own industry sometimes, and after the Calgary and Winnipeg games, #33 is back in the crosshairs of criticism for looking absolutely poor at various times and generally those poor times are leading right to scoring chances or goals.  And then the camera always catches him skating away looking at the ice in defeat.  His confidence level is very apparent and easy to perceive when it is low.  He returns to Pittsburgh tonight where another defensemen plays who had major confidence issues in Dallas, but now that he plays with Sidney Crosby and Geno Malkin, Matt Niskanen is one of the highest plus/minus players in the game.

It is a team sport and Goligoski has plenty of talent and use for this franchise, but he has to get his spot in order and right now with his pairing with Trevor Daley, that particular duo have got to be better for this thing to get to the finish line.  They are playing tough minutes against tough competition, but this team has no better idea right now and these are the cards they have to play.

Enjoy Pennsylvania, and let's hope the Stars can leave with a few results.  

Bag of Pucks - March 12 - Modano, Peverley, and Playoff Runs Past

I had a special blog planned for this week as this is the approximate "1 month to go" landmark of the season.  I will get to that in a moment, but as you may be aware, several things have happened in the last week or so that have demanded some attention.

Then, I will get to my preplanned agenda.

MODANO NIGHT:  There is no question the high point of the Stars season happened on Saturday night at the jam packed American Airlines Center as the greatest hockey player in the history of the franchise was wonderfully honored.  I thought the number of wet eyes on the evening during the ceremony says all you need to say, but allow me a few additional thoughts.  

Those of us who fell in love with the franchise in the glory days of the 1990s and then stayed in love through the embarrassing days of bankruptcy and organizational neglect have seen our share of great times and poor times from the Dallas Stars.  Unfortunately, the great times are getting smaller in the rearview mirror and the poor times have been more recent.  That is why this whole season and this night were so wonderful on so many levels.  

The organization could not have strung together a better ceremony that captured the essence of its greatest player and sent shivers down the spine of so many of us who witnessed it.  The people on hand to honor him included most of the 1999 Cup team, and many dignitaries who played a role in his career.  There were videos made including the one below which properly captures in a bit over 4 minutes how magnificent he was.  I particularly claim 3:55-4:10 as my favorite stretch with his patented "skate in, fake backhand, slam on the brakes, finish forehand (as the goalie slides helplessly away)" move that I have hardly seen since he has left the game.  

The night was magnificent.  And as a fan, media guy, and ticket holder, I was proud to be a witness to it all.  Thankfully, the hockey that followed the ceremony was equally wonderful with a gritty and gutty 3rd period comeback that included the debut of new goaltender Tim Thomas after Kari Lehtonen was lost to a concussion, another magical night from Tyler Seguin, and a breakaway winner from Erik Cole that brought the house down in delirium.  It is a night we won't soon forget.

PEVERLEY COLLAPSES:  Unfortunately, memorable nights sometimes happen for all the wrong reasons.  And early in the 1st period of Monday's game, when Rich Peverley collapsed on the bench, the entire relative importance of another playoff push was put on hold as one player's life was at stake.  Amazingly, the medical staff was on guard and ready for such an incident, and their swift attention is being credited with the saving of Peverley's life.  Peverley has a bit of a history of heart irregularities, and rather then rehashing his medical history from a standpoint of someone who doesn't understand most of the details, I would just say that the profound impact of this event was felt by all who witnessed it.  

He is a key member of this team, but I imagine his family would say he is much more of a key member of that team and with this incident I rather doubt we will see him back on the ice anytime soon - if ever.  These athletes have been given incredible gifts to be able to make these games their life's work, but sometimes, there is a bit of a flaw in the machine and to risk your health and well-being to chase a Stanley Cup or a paycheck is not worth it.  I won't pretend to understand his desires, nor the sacrifices he made to get to the NHL, but as an observer with very little of the information, I would be hesitant as an organization to authorize him risking his life any further after several red flags this season that would indicate that perhaps his heart cannot sustain the absurd work load that hockey places on it.  We often use trite sayings that suggest we would trade the balance of our life for a championship, but I imagine we all know deep down inside that is a bluff that won't be called.  

Thank goodness he lived through the incident and the game was cancelled.  However, the damage was felt by witnesses, including young team-mate Alex Chiasson who had some level of post-event trauma and did not travel to St Louis as he was reportedly in some state of distress and shock.  Many other team-mates dragged their bodies onto the plane as the show must go on, but seemed in no shape to play.  The entire incident appeared to be a draining and exhausting ordeal that will linger for quite a while, one would think.  

All the credit in the world, again, to the organization for the way this was handled.  They employ and train medical professionals for this once in a lifetime incident that can happen without warning.  It is the ultimate "just in case" plan, and in this situation, they saved his life.  It was a real tragic situation that was averted and the relief that has been felt league wide is immeasurable.  I was very impressed with the way the situation was handled from the doctors and trainers, to coach Lindy Ruff, all the way to Ralph and Razor.  

BOUNCE BACK IN ST LOUIS:  I cannot stress how vital every point is going to be.  The Stars are still in front in the race for 8th, but the margins are so thin.  And, in case you haven't noticed, April 13th, the team will play the final game in Phoenix.  Phoenix, of course, is the team the Stars are battling for the final spot in the playoffs.  Let's avoid that being a play-in game, shall we?

With that in mind, playing arguably the best team in the sport at their place within 24 hours of Peverley's situation with Chiasson also unavailable seemed a very evil thing to ask the Stars to respond to on such short notice.  But, they did.  And they scrapped and clawed to a wonderful team win with Tim Thomas doing plenty of heavy lifting and Jamie Benn scoring the OT winner against a team that they may very well play in the playoffs if they are lucky enough to attend.  Those 2 points may come in very useful and nobody would have blamed the Stars a bit had they mailed in that effort.  

Instead, they showed tremendous character once again that they don't wish to be denied in 2014.  

==========

With that in mind, allow me to get to my plans for this week.  It has been said of the Stars that they are stuck in Groundhog Day and repeat the seasons over and over since 2008.  Put a team together, stumble, play well enough to raise hopes, and then crash before the finish line and miss the playoffs. 

Rinse.  Repeat.

So, I wanted to look carefully at the last 5 seasons that have robbed us of playoff hockey after 12 of the first 14 seasons in Dallas did have playoffs and often deep playoff runs.  To make all things equal, I basically broke down the final month of each of the last 5 years and for sake of continuity, I laid them all over the premise that the season ends about April 15.  Sometimes a bit earlier and sometimes a bit later (lockout!), but again, for continuity, I took the 5 years and laid the last 5 weeks over one another to see the trends.

I also tried to make a fancy graphic for you (below) to see the 5 years.  The value of "0" is the final playoff spot, so look at each year and see how close it was to "0" to see how close they were to the playoffs as the season's were expiring.  You will notice quickly that only briefly did any of the years spend time in the positive numbers (playoff positions), and the majority of the year they were firmly planted in negative numbers (the 9th seed or below).

I have written a summary of each season's final month below, but the result of the experiment is that with the exception of the 2012 team, this squad has always been about the 9th or 10th seed in a league where the 8 best get in.  Are they chokers?  No.  That means you are good enough and just can't see it through.  Are they teases?  Maybe.  They tease you that they might be good enough but cannot sustain it for all 82 games against the competition.  One word of warning is that we are 65 games into the season and the issues have usually happened after Game 70.  So, while I believe this team is the best of the bunch and they will make the post-season, they have been able to play 70 games very well in the past.  But, the final dozen games have been where the good teams have left Dallas in the dust.

2008-09:  This year is best known for being the year that everything the Stars worked so hard to build with their 2008 Western Conference Finals run and really over a decade of quality hockey was blown up by the signing of Sean Avery.  I am sure that is hyperbole, but I am not sure to what extent.  This was the year that they started with 6 wins in their first 20 games, and then dumped Avery and the final 3 and 3/4 years of his 4 year deal in Calgary and then played about 3.5 months of very impressive hockey.  Unfortunately, during that season they also lost their captain and playoff hero Brenden Morrow to a severe ACL injury to his knee and missed almost the entire year and top scorer Brad Richards broke his wrist, missed a large amount of time, returned, and then in the very same game of his return he broke his other hand.  It just wasn't there year.  As shown by the green line above, on March 14 in Game 69, the Stars won their 2nd consecutive game, which sadly turned out to be the last time they would win 2 in a row.  They finished on a 3-7-3 slide and the horrific year cost the General Manager duo of Brett Hull and Les Jackson their jobs, which then cost Dave Tippett his job.

2009-10:  The first season of Marc Crawford and Joe Nieuwendyk will perhaps be best remembered for the end of Mike Modano's run in Dallas (and Marty Turco and Jere Lehtinen) and the oddity of finishing the season with that bit of drama which momentarily allowed us all to smile for a moment about the past and what a treat it was to watch #9 and #26 for so long.  But, the season also had the disgusting attribute of being the only team in the entire NHL that had never won 3 consecutive games for the entire year.  It was really quite brutal.  Modano spent quite a few games injured with a broken rib and Mike Ribeiro had a significant throat injury in New York that took him out for a month.  But, make no mistake, this team was just not very good at hockey and finished a long ways out and really never threatened at any time to make the playoffs.  As the purple line shows, they just were not in the mix.

2010-11:  This one was easily the year that there is no way to sugarcoat the idea that they choked.  Largely, because they did (see gold line).  They spent almost all of the year in 1st place and as of Jan 20 was considered one of the best team's in the league with a 29-13-5 record.  But, with the looming issue of Brad Richards' expiring contract and concussion as well as a blue-line that was falling apart the Stars would go on a huge 2-11-1 run where they then had to decide how to save their season.  Joe Nieuwendyk then pulled the trigger on a huge trade of James Neal and Matt Niskanen for Alex Goligoski to attempt to jump start the roster.  Meanwhile the concussion and Richards' no trade clause forced the team to hold their expiring asset until the end, knowing he wasn't going to be kept in the summer with bankruptcy freezing all spending.  The trade seemed to help them find something momentarily, but a 6-game losing streak in late March put them from in the playoffs to needing a prayer with 5 games to play.  On April 2, they were 6 points back with 5 games left, and seemed all but eliminated.  But, they won 4 straight and then needed help on the final day of the season from a Detroit team with no incentive to beat Chicago in Chicago with everything on the line.  They did.  So, playing Minnesota in St Paul against a Wild team that has been eliminated and not fielding a full lineup, the Stars suffered the ultimate humiliation of being eliminate on a winning goal by former Stars prospect Antii Miettinen.  In a win-and-you're-in game, the Stars lost to a bad team in a game that Marc Crawford would pay for with his job, despite the Stars finishing with 95 points (tied a record for most points to miss the playoffs ever).

2011-12:  So, Brad Richards is gone and so is Crawford.  In his place is new coach Glen Gulatzan and a host of low cost free agents like Michael Ryder, Vern Fiddler, and Sheldon Souray, and even Eric Nystrom who had to be signed to get the Stars to the salary floor in the league.  The best news of all, though, was that Tom Hicks officially handed the keys over to a new, optimistic, and not-broke Stars owner in Tom Gagliardi.  Again, though, this version of the squad - that came to be known as the "pesky Stars" battled their tails off all season long and had a solid month from mid-Feb to mid-March where they mowed through everyone and were in fantastic shape, even though they played without Jamie Benn for a few weeks after he suffered a skate laceration.  But, 70 games in, the Stars held the 3 seed and had a 4-point lead in their division over everyone.  It was a remarkable season, especially considering the fact that they had one of the worst power plays in the history of the sport both in chances and in conversion rates, while stubbornly keeping Jamie Benn off of the #1 power play unit for the year.  However, as the brown line above indicates, the Stars went from 5 points up to 8 points back in just 12 games where they finished the season falling on their face with a 3-9 crash and burn.  And nearly every single game down the stretch was with Kari Lehtonen looking tired between the pipes.

2012-13: And finally, year 5 of the march through the wilderness was the 48 game lockout-shortened season last year that started with trading away Mike Ribeiro and Steve Ott the summer before and trying to build the team around Jamie Benn who started the year with a contract holdout.  That eventually got worked out, and he would join a team that was very young with rookies everywhere and very old with 40 year old signees Ray Whitney and Jaromir Jagr.  It was a very bizarre year where you could sense it was Nieuwendyk's last year if they didn't make the playoffs (making it also Gulatzan's last year, too) and yet to his credit, the GM made many trades that all seemed to have an eye to the future.  So, as Jagr, Brenden Morrow, Derek Roy, and Michael Ryder were all being dealt away for pieces on this team, the squad kept playing well to a point where they were just 2 points back of the 8 seed (Columbus) with 5 games to play.  Unfortunately, they lost each of the final 5 and finished 8 points back and thus ended the tenures of Joe Nieuwendyk (4 seasons, 0 playoffs, 1 bankruptcy) and Glen Gulatzan.  The final run of 1-6 in the final 7 certainly looked like a collapse, albeit perhaps not as bad as 2011 or 2012.

So, is the 2013-14 team better?  Will it end the drought?

I think so, but perils do wait ahead.

Bag of Pucks - March 4

Tomorrow is the Trade Deadline!  Can you feel the excitement?

Jim Nill sure seems like the type to resist the urge to go reckless in a situation like this and has done everything he can to lower expectations as the Stars - with all of their cap room and optimism - can now see the finish line and can certainly justify the crazy premise of being a playoff team.

Last week, we examined the Stars track record of making deals in Feb/March and there was plenty to consume, so you may wish to review that piece by clicking here.

As opposed to throwing out grand ideas and targets at the deadline, I thought the better plan might be to examine the Stars through 61 games to decide whether or not this is actually a team that is of playoff quality - or, like in 2012-13, are they kidding themselves into believing that they are better than they are?

I think you will like the results:

Here is a mysteriously colored pie chart of the Stars from the last 3 seasons.  It shows the game of that season carved into 3 categories.  The measurements are using Corsi %, but the results would not be very different if you used Fenwick, or just good old fashioned shot differential percentages.  

The premise is this, you want the high percentage of action to be down in the other end because we know in the game of hockey that no stat correlates with winning more than shots attempted on goal.  The team with the majority win most games and the larger the sample gets, the more pronounced the impact is on the outcome.  

So, I think if you are only at or below 46% (shown in green), then we can safely say that you are conceding too much of the action in your own end and are thusly being outplayed by a considerable margin.  Between 46-54.9% is what we would call the break-even point (shown in purple).  We could divide it even more finely, but I thought that a 5% on either side of 50% at least demonstrates games that are relatively competitive and close. And then, the great category, which shows all of the games where you are at 55% or higher (shown in orange) and these are games where you are simply dominating the action.  

Let's start with 2011-12.  Here you see 14% of games being the coveted orange, 55% being in the middle, and 30% of games where the Stars are being handled by their opponent.  This would be the 10th best team in the West and the end of the Mike Ribeiro and Steve Ott runs in Dallas.  They were competitive and gritty (Pesky!), but the quality was low.

Now, the 2012-13 season, which was the shortened 48 game sprint to the finish of last season.  This campaign featured the Jamie Benn contract holdout and the Jaromir Jagr experiment which also included a number of mid-season trades where the Stars realized that it was time to build the reserves for the future.  It also featured the odd "dead cat bounce" of April where they made it interesting.

But, looking at the 3 categories, they had more good performances from the year before (up to 23% from 14%) where they dominated the puck, but also more poor performances (up to 40% from 30%) which I think demonstrates the inconsistent play of a team that could not sustain quality.  The middle area shrunk, but this team was all over the map.

And now, this season.  Tyler Seguin and Val Nichushkin have joined the squad and added some top shelf ability, so let's see if this team has a right to believe it is the real deal.

Orange is up again (that is really good).  They started at 14% in 2012, 23% in 2013, and now at 32% in 2014.  And the Green has never been lower (this is really good, too).  This shows us that the nights where the Stars are being beaten badly are rare, down to 23% from 40% the year before.  And as you can see, most nights (77%) the Stars are at even or better and rank in the Top 7 in the league in Corsi, Fenwick, and old fashioned shot differential.

In other words, this is a good team.  Not a great team, but they have every right to believe they are a playoff team.

Here is a number for you:  In 2013-14, the Stars have been over 60% Corsi 13 times already in 61 games.  That is 21% of all the games where they are blowing the doors off the opponent.  Compare that with the last 2 seasons and you will see that type of domination happened 2 times in 2013 and 3 times in 2012.  5 times in 2 seasons, and they have already done it 13 times this year.  Wow.  That is exciting.  They are blowing the doors off opponents on a somewhat routine basis.  60% means, quite simply, that they are out shooting a team in attempts 60-40.  That should give you quite a chance at winning on a regular basis.

Now, there is more to hockey than all of this and clearly, they have to keep pouring on the goals and that means dirtier plays around the goal because traffic and ugly goals are required as the year gets later and later.  But, man.  This team is so much better than it used to be.

Still plenty of work to be done, and part of that will be to convince the populace that this is not a bird of the same feather, but for now, I would heartily endorse a bold trade where they flip a prospect or three to chase another piece of high quality to give this team another piece for the present tense.

I think it is ok to trust this team.  They are better than most think.

=====

Also, this week is Mike Modano night on Saturday.  My admiration for the man is well documented, but I wrote another piece yesterday for the Stars website that you can find here.  The story is about his toughness and his under-rated courage and stubbornness to take a beating and not change his approach to the game.

I wanted to rerun parts of it here with the videos from youtube included which might have been a bit much for the DallasStars.com.

Mike Modano was absolutely one of the toughest son-of-a-guns that I have ever seen.  And I am not talking about one particular piece of anecdotal information.  No, sir.  I am talking about over the course of his career, Modano was constantly hit so hard that on several occasions, we all wondered as he laid on the ice whether that was the "big one" that would take him out of action for a long, long time. 

You likely already know what I am talking about.  If not, a rather quick review of youtube can help you relive events that you might not wish to experience the first time.  Mark Messier perhaps had the most famous blindside, cheap shot of Modano - albeit in a time in the National Hockey League where we actually had the audacity to blame the player who was hit for not "having his head on a swivel" even though Modano was finding the puck when Messier tried to decapitate him.  It was a scary moment to say the least that was, of course, compounded by the fact that the medics on the scene dumped the stretcher he was on as they were trying to load it into the ambulance.

It was back when targeting the head was not forbidden and we weren't willing to accept that the human head could not take absurd levels of punishment.  Messier was not even penalized, let alone suspended, but the damage was done.  Mike was able to bounce back in that way that he would, but anyone that thinks the league has gone too far to take the physicality out of the game needs to review the play.  Absolutely one of the most frightening moments ever.

And yet, Mike did not change his game.  He played with speed and passion, battling for the puck at top velocity, and hunting for pucks at the same rate as ever before.  If you want reality, the reality is that professional athletes change the way they play when they are physically punished.  It is human.  It could even be argued that it is smart.  But, to change would be to surrender.  And that wasn't Mike Modano. 

=====

The Stars did, of course, win the Stanley Cup that summer, and only a few months later, it happened yet again.  Now, I want to be clear, these are not normal hits or incidents.  Nor, are they hits that you see on a regular basis.  No, these 3 incidents I tell you about are all "once in a career" moments that had they gone just a little differently, his career would have not extended beyond these moments. 

This one, on the 2nd night of the 1999-00 season was when he took a shot against Anaheim, and while his momentum took him off balance past the goal-line, defensemen Ruslan Salei pushed him towards the boards.  The push sent him dangerously into the boards at an angle that put so much stress on his neck as it snapped back that it is still a wonder that he did not suffer a significant neck injury.  In fact, players have been paralyzed at levels of hockey on plays that looked less intense, and as Mike's neck torqued in a way it shouldn't, he once again was motionless in a heap on the ice.
Somehow, with chaos all around him, including Darryl Sydor defending him on the spot, Mike was able to get off the ice and he returned to the ice 10 days later.  It was really incredible he wasn't lost for much, much longer. 

I feel this doesn't get discussed often enough.  There is no question that injuries are random in both their occurrence and severity, and some guys just have luck smile on them and that allows them to continue to do what they do for a living.  Then, some get out of the sport while they can and others change the way they play in a very understandable "business decision" to play slower and thus preserve their health and well-being.

To read the rest, click on the link above.

Saturday night should be a fantastic event, and on Thursday, Mike will do an hour on our radio show again and that will be appointment material, as well.

Bag of Pucks - Feb 25 - Deadline History

The Stars are headed to the trade deadline in 8 days (March 5) with a hold of the 8th playoff position by the slightest of fingernails.  They have 24 games to go, they have plenty of room under the cap, and they sure seem enthusiastic at making as serious a run as they possibly can to get to the finish line.

So, will they rock our world with a trade of great significance?  Well, a look at the 20 years the Stars have been in Dallas and what they have done in the month leading up to the Trade Deadline each spring will of course yield a mixed bag of postures and results.  Some years you feel you are close and you want to find that last piece to make a run at either a playoff berth or a Stanley Cup, and other years you are putting a garage sale together and everything must go.

It is kind of enjoyable to dig through the dusty archives to see names you haven't seen in ages, so I thought you might want to see what 20 years of trade deadlines look like.  I even bolded the 5 most significant trades to discuss:

Bob Gainey Era: 

1994 -Mar 19 - Stars get Doug Zmolek and Mike Lalor for Ulf Dahlen and 7th from San Jose 

1995 - Feb 27 - Stars acquire Corey Millen for Neal Broten from New JerseyApr 7 - Stars get Greg Adams for Russ Courtnall from Vancouver 

1996 -Feb 17 - Stars acquire Darryl Sydor and a 5th for Shane Churla and Doug Zmolek 

Bob Gainey does a very nice job there of snagging Sydor for 2 pieces and making sure he successfully grabbed the best player in the trade and a foundation piece for some fantastic Stars teams that were led by a deep blue-line.  By trading for Sergei Zubov and Sydor, he absolutely planted the seeds of June hockey.

1997 -No Significant Trades 

1998 -Mar 24 - Stars bring in Mike Keane, Brian Skrudland, and a 6th for Todd Harvey, Bob Errey and a 4th from New York Rangers 

I figured this was the first time to break out the bold type and marvel at a trade that did not pay off immediately in that spring, but surely was the proper play to get the necessary sandpaper and experience to win the Cup.  It is also an example of a deadline trade that does not get national attention but surely pays dividends.

1999 - Mar 21 - Stars Acquire Benoit Hogue and 6th for Sergei Gusev from Tampa BayMar 23 - Stars trade for Derek Plante for a 2nd rounder from Buffalo 

2000 - Feb 8 - Stars get Sylvain Cote and Dave Manson for Derek Plante, a 2nd rounder, and Kevin Dean from Chicago  

Sylvain Cote best remembered for being on the scene for the Jason Arnott cup winning goal.  And Derek Plante arrived at the '99 deadline and left at the '00 deadline 1 year later.

2001 - Mar 13 - Stars acquire Grant Ledyard for a 7th rounder from Tampa Bay 

Doug Armstrong Era: 

2002 -Mar 12 - Stars trade for Manny Maholtra and Barrett Heisten and send Martin Rucinsky and Roman Lyashenko to New York Rangers   

Mar 12 - Stars receive Jason Arnott, Randy McKay and a 1st for Jamie Langenbrunner and Joe Nieuwendyk from New Jersey

 There are a few on here that just about every reader would love to have back.  This is easily one of the least enjoyable trades because symbolically it is linked in with the end of Ken Hitchcock, Bob Gainey, Ed Belfour, and pretty much that entire run of greatness of the Stars.  The Stars received back a top pivot in Jason Arnott who combined with Mike Modano to provide a very strong duo, but given the results and the public's perception of the move, this one is no easier to sell than the Goligoski trade that ironically was performed by Nieuwendyk.

2003 -Mar 10 - Stars trade for Lyle Odelein for Sami Helenius and a 7th rounder from ChicagoMar 10 - Stars acquire Stu Barnes for Michael Ryan and a 2nd from Buffalo 

2004 -Mar 8 - Stars receive Chris Therian for a 3rd and 8th round picks from PhiladelphiaMar 8 - Stars get Valeri Bure for a 2nd and Drew Bagnall from Florida

2005 -  No Season

2006 -Mar 8 - Stars get Willie Mitchell and a 2nd for Shawn Bell and Martin Skoula from Minnesota 

I would love to know how many things would have been different if the Stars would have been able to get Willie Mitchell signed to an extension that summer.  He ended up signing a 4 year, $14m deal in Vancouver and the Stars made due in other directions for a while before the bottom fell out of the blue-line.

2007 -Feb 27 - Stars receive Mattias Norstrom, 2007 3rd and 2007 4th for Jaroslav Modry, 2007 2nd, 2007 3rd, and a 2008 1st from Los Angeles   

Such an under-rated move by Doug Armstrong, and an anchor on the blue-line through the 2008 Western Conference Finals.

Brett Hull Era: 

2008 -

Feb 26 - Stars receive Brad Richards, Johan Holmqvist for Mike Smith, Jeff Halpern, Jussi Jokinen, and 4th from Tampa Bay 

Brett Hull didn't last long as a GM, but when he pulled the trigger he sure grabbed those headlines.  Of all of the moves they had made at the deadline, this is the one that made the jaws drop around the league as the Stars sent Mike Smith and a bunch of assorted parts to go get one of the best centers in hockey.  The Brad Richards era (and Brett Hull era) coincided with bankruptcy, so we never will really know how good things could have been in Dallas, but he certainly has put the numbers up throughout his career.

2009 - No Significant Trades 

Joe Nieuwendyk era:

2010 - 

Feb 9 - Stars get Kari Lehtonen for Ivan Vishnevskiy and a 4th from Atlanta 

Joe's first deadline was a rather under the headlines move that turned into one that is still paying off when the Stars gambled on a goalie from Atlanta who had a very poor reputation as an underachiever who had questionable work ethic.  Since then, you could argue he has been the best player in the organization and was acquired for seeds.

2011 -  

Feb 21 - Stars acquire Alex Goligoski for James Neal and Matt Niskanen 

Sadly, this is the move that overshadows the Kari trade with most and colors the perception of his entire run with the majority of Stars loyalists.  This was the all-in move to go fix the blue-line once and for all, and as anyone who has been watching will attest, this trade has had results in Dallas and in Pittsburgh that have both loudly spoken that the intent and the result were drastically different.

2012 - Feb 16 - Stars receive a 2nd and a 3rd for Nick Grossman from Philadelphia 

2013 - Feb 26 - Stars receive Erik Cole for Michael Ryder and a 3rd from MontrealMar 24 - Stars get Joe Morrow and a 5th for Brenden Morrow and a 3rd from PittsburghApril 2 - Stars get Lane MacDermid, Cody Payne, and a 1st for Jaromir Jagr from BostonApril 2 - Stars receive Cameron Gaunce for Tomas Vincour from ColoradoApril 2 - Stars receive a 2nd round pick and Kevin Connauton for Derek Roy from Vancouver

 Last year, the flurry of moves made seem to have laid a further foundation for Jim Nill as we move forward.

Now, it is Nill's turn, and he is publicly saying all of the right things that he is "happy with his team as it is", but I figure that we will see something to improve this roster that is good, but has weaknesses for sure.

A few weeks ago, we tried to sum up the Stars spot in the standings at the break, and I recommend you review that blog entry here.

As I said there:

It is great to say you have the eighth spot at the Olympic break, but in the big scheme of things, it is merely a landmark along the way. The Stars have the inside path (ever so barely), but also have five years of demons to deal with as they try to strike down that wall that has killed the organization's proud run of excellence through 2008. It should be noted that Dallas, Phoenix, and Nashville still have cap room to deal until that March 5 deadline if they want to add a piece to go for the present tense, without sacrificing the future.

There is optimism in the air and hope rolling in. Twenty-four games to go and I assume they will be filled with tension and the normal roller coaster of emotions.

A defensemen to add?  A legit 2nd center who can win face-offs and set up more scoring?  A piece for the next 4-5 years on a team that is trying to move a contract?  Also, with Vernon Fiddler, Ray Whitney, and Stephane Robidas all expiring UFAs, they actually could flip things the other direction if the price is right.  

Decisions, decisions.  And 8 days with which to make them.  The best news is that games return this week, so the stretch drive has arrived.