Bag of Pucks - March 12 - Modano, Peverley, and Playoff Runs Past

I had a special blog planned for this week as this is the approximate "1 month to go" landmark of the season.  I will get to that in a moment, but as you may be aware, several things have happened in the last week or so that have demanded some attention.

Then, I will get to my preplanned agenda.

MODANO NIGHT:  There is no question the high point of the Stars season happened on Saturday night at the jam packed American Airlines Center as the greatest hockey player in the history of the franchise was wonderfully honored.  I thought the number of wet eyes on the evening during the ceremony says all you need to say, but allow me a few additional thoughts.  

Those of us who fell in love with the franchise in the glory days of the 1990s and then stayed in love through the embarrassing days of bankruptcy and organizational neglect have seen our share of great times and poor times from the Dallas Stars.  Unfortunately, the great times are getting smaller in the rearview mirror and the poor times have been more recent.  That is why this whole season and this night were so wonderful on so many levels.  

The organization could not have strung together a better ceremony that captured the essence of its greatest player and sent shivers down the spine of so many of us who witnessed it.  The people on hand to honor him included most of the 1999 Cup team, and many dignitaries who played a role in his career.  There were videos made including the one below which properly captures in a bit over 4 minutes how magnificent he was.  I particularly claim 3:55-4:10 as my favorite stretch with his patented "skate in, fake backhand, slam on the brakes, finish forehand (as the goalie slides helplessly away)" move that I have hardly seen since he has left the game.  

The night was magnificent.  And as a fan, media guy, and ticket holder, I was proud to be a witness to it all.  Thankfully, the hockey that followed the ceremony was equally wonderful with a gritty and gutty 3rd period comeback that included the debut of new goaltender Tim Thomas after Kari Lehtonen was lost to a concussion, another magical night from Tyler Seguin, and a breakaway winner from Erik Cole that brought the house down in delirium.  It is a night we won't soon forget.

PEVERLEY COLLAPSES:  Unfortunately, memorable nights sometimes happen for all the wrong reasons.  And early in the 1st period of Monday's game, when Rich Peverley collapsed on the bench, the entire relative importance of another playoff push was put on hold as one player's life was at stake.  Amazingly, the medical staff was on guard and ready for such an incident, and their swift attention is being credited with the saving of Peverley's life.  Peverley has a bit of a history of heart irregularities, and rather then rehashing his medical history from a standpoint of someone who doesn't understand most of the details, I would just say that the profound impact of this event was felt by all who witnessed it.  

He is a key member of this team, but I imagine his family would say he is much more of a key member of that team and with this incident I rather doubt we will see him back on the ice anytime soon - if ever.  These athletes have been given incredible gifts to be able to make these games their life's work, but sometimes, there is a bit of a flaw in the machine and to risk your health and well-being to chase a Stanley Cup or a paycheck is not worth it.  I won't pretend to understand his desires, nor the sacrifices he made to get to the NHL, but as an observer with very little of the information, I would be hesitant as an organization to authorize him risking his life any further after several red flags this season that would indicate that perhaps his heart cannot sustain the absurd work load that hockey places on it.  We often use trite sayings that suggest we would trade the balance of our life for a championship, but I imagine we all know deep down inside that is a bluff that won't be called.  

Thank goodness he lived through the incident and the game was cancelled.  However, the damage was felt by witnesses, including young team-mate Alex Chiasson who had some level of post-event trauma and did not travel to St Louis as he was reportedly in some state of distress and shock.  Many other team-mates dragged their bodies onto the plane as the show must go on, but seemed in no shape to play.  The entire incident appeared to be a draining and exhausting ordeal that will linger for quite a while, one would think.  

All the credit in the world, again, to the organization for the way this was handled.  They employ and train medical professionals for this once in a lifetime incident that can happen without warning.  It is the ultimate "just in case" plan, and in this situation, they saved his life.  It was a real tragic situation that was averted and the relief that has been felt league wide is immeasurable.  I was very impressed with the way the situation was handled from the doctors and trainers, to coach Lindy Ruff, all the way to Ralph and Razor.  

BOUNCE BACK IN ST LOUIS:  I cannot stress how vital every point is going to be.  The Stars are still in front in the race for 8th, but the margins are so thin.  And, in case you haven't noticed, April 13th, the team will play the final game in Phoenix.  Phoenix, of course, is the team the Stars are battling for the final spot in the playoffs.  Let's avoid that being a play-in game, shall we?

With that in mind, playing arguably the best team in the sport at their place within 24 hours of Peverley's situation with Chiasson also unavailable seemed a very evil thing to ask the Stars to respond to on such short notice.  But, they did.  And they scrapped and clawed to a wonderful team win with Tim Thomas doing plenty of heavy lifting and Jamie Benn scoring the OT winner against a team that they may very well play in the playoffs if they are lucky enough to attend.  Those 2 points may come in very useful and nobody would have blamed the Stars a bit had they mailed in that effort.  

Instead, they showed tremendous character once again that they don't wish to be denied in 2014.  

==========

With that in mind, allow me to get to my plans for this week.  It has been said of the Stars that they are stuck in Groundhog Day and repeat the seasons over and over since 2008.  Put a team together, stumble, play well enough to raise hopes, and then crash before the finish line and miss the playoffs. 

Rinse.  Repeat.

So, I wanted to look carefully at the last 5 seasons that have robbed us of playoff hockey after 12 of the first 14 seasons in Dallas did have playoffs and often deep playoff runs.  To make all things equal, I basically broke down the final month of each of the last 5 years and for sake of continuity, I laid them all over the premise that the season ends about April 15.  Sometimes a bit earlier and sometimes a bit later (lockout!), but again, for continuity, I took the 5 years and laid the last 5 weeks over one another to see the trends.

I also tried to make a fancy graphic for you (below) to see the 5 years.  The value of "0" is the final playoff spot, so look at each year and see how close it was to "0" to see how close they were to the playoffs as the season's were expiring.  You will notice quickly that only briefly did any of the years spend time in the positive numbers (playoff positions), and the majority of the year they were firmly planted in negative numbers (the 9th seed or below).

I have written a summary of each season's final month below, but the result of the experiment is that with the exception of the 2012 team, this squad has always been about the 9th or 10th seed in a league where the 8 best get in.  Are they chokers?  No.  That means you are good enough and just can't see it through.  Are they teases?  Maybe.  They tease you that they might be good enough but cannot sustain it for all 82 games against the competition.  One word of warning is that we are 65 games into the season and the issues have usually happened after Game 70.  So, while I believe this team is the best of the bunch and they will make the post-season, they have been able to play 70 games very well in the past.  But, the final dozen games have been where the good teams have left Dallas in the dust.

2008-09:  This year is best known for being the year that everything the Stars worked so hard to build with their 2008 Western Conference Finals run and really over a decade of quality hockey was blown up by the signing of Sean Avery.  I am sure that is hyperbole, but I am not sure to what extent.  This was the year that they started with 6 wins in their first 20 games, and then dumped Avery and the final 3 and 3/4 years of his 4 year deal in Calgary and then played about 3.5 months of very impressive hockey.  Unfortunately, during that season they also lost their captain and playoff hero Brenden Morrow to a severe ACL injury to his knee and missed almost the entire year and top scorer Brad Richards broke his wrist, missed a large amount of time, returned, and then in the very same game of his return he broke his other hand.  It just wasn't there year.  As shown by the green line above, on March 14 in Game 69, the Stars won their 2nd consecutive game, which sadly turned out to be the last time they would win 2 in a row.  They finished on a 3-7-3 slide and the horrific year cost the General Manager duo of Brett Hull and Les Jackson their jobs, which then cost Dave Tippett his job.

2009-10:  The first season of Marc Crawford and Joe Nieuwendyk will perhaps be best remembered for the end of Mike Modano's run in Dallas (and Marty Turco and Jere Lehtinen) and the oddity of finishing the season with that bit of drama which momentarily allowed us all to smile for a moment about the past and what a treat it was to watch #9 and #26 for so long.  But, the season also had the disgusting attribute of being the only team in the entire NHL that had never won 3 consecutive games for the entire year.  It was really quite brutal.  Modano spent quite a few games injured with a broken rib and Mike Ribeiro had a significant throat injury in New York that took him out for a month.  But, make no mistake, this team was just not very good at hockey and finished a long ways out and really never threatened at any time to make the playoffs.  As the purple line shows, they just were not in the mix.

2010-11:  This one was easily the year that there is no way to sugarcoat the idea that they choked.  Largely, because they did (see gold line).  They spent almost all of the year in 1st place and as of Jan 20 was considered one of the best team's in the league with a 29-13-5 record.  But, with the looming issue of Brad Richards' expiring contract and concussion as well as a blue-line that was falling apart the Stars would go on a huge 2-11-1 run where they then had to decide how to save their season.  Joe Nieuwendyk then pulled the trigger on a huge trade of James Neal and Matt Niskanen for Alex Goligoski to attempt to jump start the roster.  Meanwhile the concussion and Richards' no trade clause forced the team to hold their expiring asset until the end, knowing he wasn't going to be kept in the summer with bankruptcy freezing all spending.  The trade seemed to help them find something momentarily, but a 6-game losing streak in late March put them from in the playoffs to needing a prayer with 5 games to play.  On April 2, they were 6 points back with 5 games left, and seemed all but eliminated.  But, they won 4 straight and then needed help on the final day of the season from a Detroit team with no incentive to beat Chicago in Chicago with everything on the line.  They did.  So, playing Minnesota in St Paul against a Wild team that has been eliminated and not fielding a full lineup, the Stars suffered the ultimate humiliation of being eliminate on a winning goal by former Stars prospect Antii Miettinen.  In a win-and-you're-in game, the Stars lost to a bad team in a game that Marc Crawford would pay for with his job, despite the Stars finishing with 95 points (tied a record for most points to miss the playoffs ever).

2011-12:  So, Brad Richards is gone and so is Crawford.  In his place is new coach Glen Gulatzan and a host of low cost free agents like Michael Ryder, Vern Fiddler, and Sheldon Souray, and even Eric Nystrom who had to be signed to get the Stars to the salary floor in the league.  The best news of all, though, was that Tom Hicks officially handed the keys over to a new, optimistic, and not-broke Stars owner in Tom Gagliardi.  Again, though, this version of the squad - that came to be known as the "pesky Stars" battled their tails off all season long and had a solid month from mid-Feb to mid-March where they mowed through everyone and were in fantastic shape, even though they played without Jamie Benn for a few weeks after he suffered a skate laceration.  But, 70 games in, the Stars held the 3 seed and had a 4-point lead in their division over everyone.  It was a remarkable season, especially considering the fact that they had one of the worst power plays in the history of the sport both in chances and in conversion rates, while stubbornly keeping Jamie Benn off of the #1 power play unit for the year.  However, as the brown line above indicates, the Stars went from 5 points up to 8 points back in just 12 games where they finished the season falling on their face with a 3-9 crash and burn.  And nearly every single game down the stretch was with Kari Lehtonen looking tired between the pipes.

2012-13: And finally, year 5 of the march through the wilderness was the 48 game lockout-shortened season last year that started with trading away Mike Ribeiro and Steve Ott the summer before and trying to build the team around Jamie Benn who started the year with a contract holdout.  That eventually got worked out, and he would join a team that was very young with rookies everywhere and very old with 40 year old signees Ray Whitney and Jaromir Jagr.  It was a very bizarre year where you could sense it was Nieuwendyk's last year if they didn't make the playoffs (making it also Gulatzan's last year, too) and yet to his credit, the GM made many trades that all seemed to have an eye to the future.  So, as Jagr, Brenden Morrow, Derek Roy, and Michael Ryder were all being dealt away for pieces on this team, the squad kept playing well to a point where they were just 2 points back of the 8 seed (Columbus) with 5 games to play.  Unfortunately, they lost each of the final 5 and finished 8 points back and thus ended the tenures of Joe Nieuwendyk (4 seasons, 0 playoffs, 1 bankruptcy) and Glen Gulatzan.  The final run of 1-6 in the final 7 certainly looked like a collapse, albeit perhaps not as bad as 2011 or 2012.

So, is the 2013-14 team better?  Will it end the drought?

I think so, but perils do wait ahead.

Bag of Pucks - May 7

If there is one thing clear about the NHL Playoffs, it is that it is riveting and addicting in short order.  If there is another thing clear about the NHL Playoffs, it is that if your team is not in it, it is just not the same.

I can remember an actual time around here where the playoffs were taken for granted.  The Stars entered every season guaranteed that they were going to the post-season, the question from October on was simply what seed were they going to be?  Would they get home ice in the first 2 rounds or all the way throughout the playoffs?  Was there an easier road with match-ups, or do we just let the chips fall where they may?

Having worked in sports radio in Dallas-Fort Worth since 1998, I can honestly tell you that I remember in our daily show meetings that there were times after a playoff game that we had better things to do then break down "just a 1st round game" the next day.  Not proud of it, but as goofy as it seems now, hosting a Round 1 playoff game against Edmonton back in the day was not treated always as a big event.  It was a routine event that was treated slightly more importantly than the regular season.  It was going to happen and the Stars were going to win.

Wake me up when things get good in Round 2, was the attitude that seemed to exist in this city a 10-15 years back.

Well, we have learned.  We have been served our helping of humble pie and then some.  We have promised that we will never take a playoff berth for granted.  What silly, entitled, and spoiled fans we may have become.  And now, we beg for mercy and a chance to play again in the greatest tournament in sports.

Of course, that will have to wait until at least next year.  And for now, we are left to sift through the rubble of what remains of a 5th successive season that ended short of the mark.

Before we close the book on 2012-13, which was actually only 2013, we should make sure we know where this team sits in some important statistics that have put them where they are.  Some of this has been touched on in previous entries, but it doesn't hurt to throw it all in together now that we can see the season as a whole:

Goals Per Game - Starting with '08, the last time the Stars were in the playoffs.

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
2.89	2.73	2.80	2.71	2.49	2.67

Goals Against Per Game - 

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
2.49	3.06	2.98	2.76	2.66	2.94

And obviously, in a game like hockey, if the number up top (Goals for) is smaller than the corresponding number below it (Goals against), then your team is struggling to win.  And, this is the 5th season in a row that the issue has been as obvious as the sunrise.

But, let's dig deeper.

Shot Differential +/-

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
+50	+66	-35	-235	-212	-228

There is one major issue with the stat above, and that is that despite the numbers getting worse almost every year, we also have to deal with that small detail of shots per game as this last year was merely 48 games and the other seasons were 82.  Gulp.  Let's look at it by shots per game.

Shot Differential Per Game:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
+0.61	+0.80	-0.43	-2.87	-2.59	-4.75

Oh boy.  That one smarts.  We were under the impression that the 2013 team was better than the 2012 version.  I guess this sets that one back a bit, doesn't it?  If no metric in hockey correlates with winning like shot differential (actually shots attempted rather than shots on goal is the most ideal) then we have issues and they are getting worse.

So, why are they losing the shot differential?  Are they shooting less or conceding more?  Both.

Shots For Per Game:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
26.7	28.9	30.8	27.7	28.2	26.3

Interesting to see that the offensive output this season was very low, despite more power plays, but on par with the numbers from the 2008 team that we all yearn for.  The big drop has been on the other end.

Shots Against Per Game:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
26.1	28.1	31.2	30.5	30.8	31.0

This is where we come back to the idea that the defense corps have never been properly replenished with quality since the good old days.  This isn't goaltending.  This is the fact that there is too much rubber being shot at Dallas nets.  And it has been consistently bad since Mr Zubov left with Mr Boucher and Mr Norstrom back after the 2008 run.

Even Strength Goal Differential:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
+15	-9	-11	+1	+3	-7

This is another one that correlates to winning quite a bit.  Are you the better team when the game is a 5-on-5 game and we leave special teams out of it?  This was the calling card of the 2012 team, and that is why the theory was that if you improved the power play, you would get into the playoffs.  Well, that worked, but even strength fell off considerably.  Let's look at the Power Play.

Power Play Conversion %:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
18.1%	15.4%	18.6%	18.0%	13.5%	17.0%

So, they got the PP back to a reasonable spot, where they ranked 18th in the NHL as opposed to 30th, but they lost their gains at equal strength.  But, percentages are only half the battle.  What about opportunities?  If you are never on the job, your percentages don't matter much.

Power Play Opportunities per game:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
4.31	4.28	4.00	3.73	2.97	3.56

That is interesting.  It was going down every year, and this season, the Stars drew far more power plays than in 2012.  However, that number is still the 5th best out of 6 years.  Power Plays increased as did the conversion rate, but it was not enough to overcome the shot differentials nor the equal strength issues.

Power Play Opportunities Against per game:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
4.32	3.98	3.51	3.38	3.69	3.72

Again, this game is way easier if you are on the job more than you are trying to kill off others power plays.  This has really only been an issue in the post Brad Richards' era the last 2 years.  This year was way better, but again, it is tough to draw penalties if you seldom have the puck.  And the Stars, since Modano and Richards were great together back in 2008 and 2009, this team hasn't seen the puck as much as they need.

Penalty Kill Percentages:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
85.6%	78.6%	77.4%	80.1%	82.8%	81.0%

This has been something the Stars have desperately needed to improve upon, and they have done a solid job of getting better with.  They ranked 17th this year, which is back from 2012 when they were 13th, but this has not been a real sore thumb in a few years.

Faceoff Win Percentage:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
50.4%	47.8%	48.1%	50%	49.1%	47.2%

As you know, this correlates to shot differential often, as you can't shoot if you don't have the puck.  And if you are losing face-offs as much as any team in hockey, you don't have the puck enough.  We are a long way from the days of the Stars having Modano, Carbonneau, and Nieuwendyk down the middle for face-offs.  

I could share more numbers, but I am guessing by now, you are paralyzed by these.  One more is worth looking at, which is Points Back from the Playoffs:

Points Out of the Playoffs:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
+6	-8	-7	-2	-6	-7

As you can see, in a 48 Game season, finishing 7 points out is the equivalent of 12 points out in a normal length season.

There are plenty of things that need to be done to improve, but as we hear rhetoric about different ways to improve, you might like to have this bookmarked to compare the discussion with the raw numbers.  

Bag of Pucks - April 30 - Jim Nill Edition

It was a bizarre night on Saturday evening when the Stars were playing out the string against Detroit in an arena full of red and equally of defeat for anyone who loves hockey in Dallas.

For what seems like the umpteenth time in a row, the Stars fight and claw and come up short.  Actually, it was only the 5th season in a row, but after they spoiled us by showing success virtually anytime they wanted in the first 15 years in town, the Dallas Stars have hit a dead end.  Again.  And Again.

Trying to figure out where the Stars took a wrong turn after their fantastic run in the 2008 playoffs, there are certainly plenty of events that strung together in succession.  Was it the retirement of Sergei Zubov and 2 other significant defensemen at the same time?  Was it the ill-advised signing of Sean Avery that summer when most of the league wouldn't touch him?  Was it the firing of Dave Tippett when he had only missed the playoffs one time in his six seasons in Dallas (you know, the season you gave him Sean Avery in the middle of his room and took Zubov away)?  Was it the bankruptcy and embarrassing manner in which Tom Hicks left the franchise?  Was it cranking the payroll back significantly year after year (from over $70m to down to the bare minimum the league allows)?  Was it firing Doug Armstrong in the first place?

We could go on.  But, the point is this thing was broken down to where whoever took the job over was going to have to pitch a perfect game to get out of that mess.  And even that might not have been enough.

So, when Joe Nieuwendyk was dismissed on Saturday Night in a way that was a bit unfortunate (it appears he found out the same way we did, via reporters in Canada), it struck me as less than a fair way to summarize his 4 years here in Dallas.

Now, in the interest of being open, I am a big Joe Nieuwendyk supporter because of the way he conducts his business going back to the first time I met him upon coming to Dallas in 1998.  He has always been 100% class and seemed perfect for this type of position when he was done playing.  He inherited a chance at being a general manager in the NHL, but was certainly not lucky enough to inherit one where the odds were stacked in his favor.

He made some major mis-steps along the way, but also some significant positive moves.  The fans began to associate him with the dire times inside the organization which seems incredibly misdirected, but that is the nature of the beast.  The owner makes a major mess of everything and then shoves his representatives out to deal with the angry public.  They do the best they can, because they are lucky enough to have a high ranking spot in the NHL, knowing full well that they are on borrowed time because the entire thing was broken and not set for success with 1st class organizations that they must compete with.

Nieuwendyk's first decision might have been the one that bit him the most, looking back, when he fired Tippett immediately to get his guy in as coach.  Let's be honest, watching the duo of Armstrong and Tippett find success in their very next gigs after leaving Dallas doesn't help any of us feel better about how this thing has gone.  Both coaches that Nieuwendyk hired looked the part as reasonable hires, but the fact that the results never were found doesn't help, either.

The trades have been gone over and for every Goligoski complaint, there should be an equally loud Lehtonen cheer, but it seldom seems that happens.  The infusion of young talent that has been assembled suggests that Joe helped build the next wave of talent that is coming through the system and that will be reaped by his successor.  Time will tell the quality and there are some first round pick decisions that I certainly continue to 2nd guess, but overall, this thing is in way better shape than Nieuwendyk found it.

But, the biggest thing I would say about his run is that we still don't know how he would do as a general manager with a full deck of cards.  His payroll rankings when he was in charge were right there with the worst in the league and therefore to expect top notch results that compare to Bob Gainey and Doug Armstrong when they always had Top 5 payrolls and he had Bottom 5 payrolls is just flat-out ridiculous and unfair.

His biggest signing in free agency?  Would you believe the small signing of Ray Whitney last summer for 2 years/$9 million (Remember: Brett Hull had $15.5 million to give Sean Avery and traded for the giant Brad Richards deal before that)?  As a general manager in the NHL, to never have a free agent signing or acquisition that valued over that is incredible and uncommon.  To judge his work with that millstone around his neck is silly.  Now, yes, he did make the big signings of Goligoski, Benn, Lehtonen, and others inside the organization (many times to just get to the cap floor, mind you), but when this team need additions, it was always in the bargain bin.

So, they had no choice but to find bargains and turn refuse into chicken salad whenever possible.  Sometimes, it worked well as guys like Brenden Dillon get me very excited, but other times you are led to believe that Joe will be hard pressed to have the odds stacked more against him in his next gig.

It was destined to fail, regardless of the GM.  In a sense, Armstrong is lucky he found a new home in St Louis where they were serious about building a contender.

But, thankfully, Tom Hicks was forced out of business.  He had done enough damage to erase the good he helped create a decade earlier.  And after the NHL ran the Stars for a short spell, enter Tom Gaglardi.  At first, his best characteristic was that he was not the old guy.  Slowly, we are seeing what he has on his list of objectives, and it does seem to include a thirst to build a winner.

Talk is cheap, though, and I always said we should give him a fair chance, but actions will always speak louder than words.  Gaglardi has been in power for 18 months and although we have seen small signs of determined actions to make things right on the ice, it has been slow and calculated to get through the work stoppage and moving out assets that were expiring and making room for the kids.

He did not make changes on the hockey side until Saturday when he decided Joe and surely his hire at coach, Glen Gulatzan were done.

Now, to hear it told, there is some confusion about whether or not this move was made because Jim Nill was available or it the Stars were changing GM no matter who the successor was.  In the end, that hardly matters, save for the history telling, but the since the entire league is responding to this hire with plaudits, it looks like they have quite a guy in the big chair here.

Pierre LeBrun from ESPN wrote about assistant general managers who were ready for the GM job back in February and listed Nill as his #1 guy:

1. Jim Nill, Detroit Red Wings: Now in his 15th season as assistant GM in Detroit, he has been GM material for a long time. And it just so happens that his contract will soon begin to present itself with annual six-week "out windows" when he can entertain GM offers from other teams, a source told ESPN.com. The first window comes this summer. With four Stanley Cup rings and a long list of late-draft gems on his resume, Nill is a top-notch candidate in waiting. It would have to be the right fit for him to leave Detroit, where he's happy and loyal to the Ilitch family, but it's a possibility. You can't go wrong if you name Nill as your GM. He'd be a superstar hire. 

That is an amazing endorsement and should make everyone excited.  But, maybe for different reasons than might be readily obvious.

I am fired up because a guy like Nill was only leaving Detroit if the move was perfect.  And I assume to do that he was able to secure assurances from Gaglardi and Jim Lites that if he comes here, he will be given the resources to compete - and not just for the playoffs, but ultimately for a Cup.

Clearly, hiring someone from a top organization makes sense, and sometimes it works like when Oklahoma City hired Sam Presti from the San Antonio Spurs, and sometimes it doesn't like when the Cavaliers hired Danny Ferry from the Spurs.

But, Nill comes with confidence, experience, and hopefully the eye for talent that everyone credits him with from many days with Ken Holland and Jim Devellano who along with Scotty Bowman made Detroit into what it is today.  They are the gold standard in hockey in the last 2 decades, so I have no problem stealing from the enemy who does it right.

He has a pretty solid youth system, a load of picks, and hopefully a stack of cash to make this thing happen.  He also has a 5-year deal, so we should assume he will play the long game in fixing, which means no reckless plays early just because he has money.  He will take his time and do what he needs to do to make sure this downturn in hockey ends with this hire.

As for Nieuwendyk, I know he will bounce back.  I understand fans being mad at someone, but the venom directed at him is just not overly reasonable given what he had to work with.  He inherited a bad situation and built a brighter future.  Did he deserve another year?  While I thought so, I also am fine with Gaglardi making a move if he things he needed a fresh start with his guys before he invests heavily in the future.

But, make no mistake:  It will take heavy investment from the owner to win a Cup and to fill this arena again.  The fans were misled for many years about whether this team was serious about winning or not, and ownership did not always practice what they preached.  Fine.  Water under the bridge.

As far as I am concerned, Gaglardi and Nill have a fresh start and the benefit of the doubt from me.  As for many of you, I am sure they are going to have to win you back.  And winning on the ice is the only way to do that.

Bag of Pucks - April 23 - Final Week Edition

You wanted the playoffs, right?

Well, you got them.  Starting tonight.  And with 3 games to go into the regular season, we have found our way to a familiar spot.  Win.  Win again.  And then, win a 3rd time in succession for the playoffs.  Anything less might not be enough.

In fact, with Detroit's win last night and Columbus winning the night before, we are actually in a spot where it appears winning the next 3 games might still not be enough.  They need to win the next 3 AND make sure that they do it in regulation against the Blue Jackets on Thursday and the Red Wings on Saturday.  If either of those teams extract so much as a point from their visits to Dallas at the end of the week, that might signal the death blow to the Stars 2013 campaign.  Ugh.

This team has made these last few weeks quite enjoyable.  In fact, some of the moments of April 2013 have been quite memorable from the way that they were left for dead to then their subsequent run of form that was the best of the entire year.  There is something to be said about the overall battle and resolve of this squad and the way that they have no interest (those that remain) of mailing in the final games of their season.  And that should be admired.

But, there is no chance that battle and resolve will show up in the standings or stand the test of time in the memories of the DFW sports scene.  As Master Yoda has told us, "Do or do not.  There is no try."

They sit 10th in the Western Conference this morning, and although we see the margin as razor thin - because that is what it is with 3 games to play - we can also look at it from a standpoint of deficiency.  What are the Stars doing that doesn't fall in the class of its competition?

There are many disconcerting numbers when it comes to team-to-team comparisons, but the one that continues to jump off the page in a real hockey sense is simply "Goals Allowed".  It doesn't get more basic than that, and the Stars are amongst the most generous teams in the sport.  They have conceded 133 times this year or 2.95 GA per game.  The Blue Jackets sit at 2.54 GA and the Red Wings 2.48 GA as of this morning.    If you are conceding an extra half goal per game, you can see where that thin margin is really an issue.

Which is why we have spent so much time on the true issues of this team in this space all year long (and years before that).  We can discuss other components of this squad all day, but the bottom line is that the Stars have been deficient in defensive man-power for the entire 5 years since they last were a contender in the Western Conference.  It has been said so many times that it now borders on beating a dead horse, but similar to having starting pitching, quarterback play, or rebounding in these various sports, there is just very little history of a team winning in this sport without league-average or better quality on their defense.

This, of course, can be impacted for better or worse based on the caliber of the goaltending and the forwards doing their part.  But, at the proverbial end of the day, your blue-line group of 6 defensemen has to be able to get you out of most of your problems.  This is one of the top traits of the glory days with Derian Hatcher, Richard Matvichuk, Darryl Sydor, Sergei Zubov, Craig Ludwig, and Shawn Chambers.  They didn't get scored upon because they, comparatively speaking, did not get shot upon.  When you concede just 24 shots against per game, this means Ed Belfour didn't have heavy work most nights, and when he did, he needed to only make 22 saves to get the Stars in a position to win.  Compare that with how many nights Kari Lehtonen must make 32 saves to give the Stars a chance.

I know people roll their eyes when the 1999 Stars are referenced, so let's work from the other direction. Without a magnificent finish, the Stars will have missed the playoffs now 7 times since leaving Minnesota.  They also have just 7 seasons where they have conceded more than 26 shots per game.  How many of the 7 seasons from the first category are also the 7 seasons from the second category?  6.  This is not coincidence.

The 7 worst seasons in Stars history in shots allowed per game were 1995, 1996, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and now 2013.  The 6 seasons the Stars missed the playoffs were 1996, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012.  If they don't finish the season with 3 wins, they will add 2013 to that list as well.

Understand that shots allowed have almost nothing to do with a goaltender.  I say almost nothing because his propensity to concede rebounds can affect this, of course, but in the case of Kari Lehtonen, it is widely believed that Lehtonen does almost nothing but help the cause.  His goaltending may not be elite, but it surely isn't far from that level as he consistently seems to provide stellar work and keeps the squad alive all year long with some heroic work between the pipes.

I say all of that to simply keep the eyes on the proper target.  The blue-line has been rather stable all year long.  It was not affected by the trade deadline, the trades, or most of the added discussions about the team.  It has avoided most significant injuries and the group of Stephane Robidas, Trevor Daley, Alex Goligoski, Brenden Dillon, Philip Larsen, Aaron Rome, and Jordie Benn has pretty much been the group from start to finish.  Jamie Oleksiak played 16 games up from Austin, but this group of 8 has been the group all season long.  They were not gutted by absence or front-office decision.

And this group should be singled out for its battle level and its resolve.  I have no quarrel with the efforts I see every night and the commitment level to play to the top of their ability level.  In fact, there are quite a few in that group that I would count amongst my favorite players with the team.  But, as a group, this is where the Stars have needed to upgrade over the last 5 seasons and where they have been unable to find the answers they are seeking.

Like any NFL team looking for a QB, when you try to play hockey with a blue-line that remains sub-standard, everything else feels like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.  Because, it kind of is.  They have upgraded their forwards several times in the last 5 seasons.  They have found a franchise goalie.  But, they still have Robidas and Daley from that last playoff squad.  The Goligoski trade has not turned into what they hoped.  Brenden Dillon represents tremendous promise moving forward (as does, we assume, Oleksiak soon).  And Aaron Rome has proven a very useful 3rd pair defensive d-man.

They need to get bigger and they need to get better.  They need to limit opportunities against their goaltender and that will reduce goals against.  They must shave 30-40 goals a season off their ledger on a 82 game season.  This starts by shaving 3 shots a game off their ledger or roughly 250 a year.  How does this get accomplished?  Well, last year, the Minnesota Wild allowed 31.4 shots per game.  This year, they have dropped to 27.3 shots per game.

Was it all Ryan Suter and his 13-year, $98 million contract that he signed to move from Nashville to Minnesota?  No.  Not all of it.  But, given that he leads the NHL in ice time this season with 27:04 per game and is thought of around the league as being a rare true "#1 D-man", you can bet that the Wild don't want a refund.

One player helped turn that team defensively.  Sure, they have had plenty of other additions that pitched in, but nobody would try to convince you that he isn't front and center.  Sometimes, teams spend irresponsibly.  Other times, they target what every team needs.  The Wild did that with Suter.  The Stars get back in line and look for theirs.  Thus, all of the buzz about Seth Jones in the upcoming draft.

The trouble with elite QBs, starting pitchers, and defensemen is that there are not enough to go around. The Stars had 2 for many years with Hatcher and Zubov.  But, since Zubov has left, they have not had close to a true #1.  That is what they seek this summer and that is what can help this team's quality continue.

In the meantime, our merry band of warriors try to write a proud chapter of their history.  With flesh wounds and fatigue everywhere, they attempt to win tonight in San Jose and then beat two equally desperate teams in regulation on home ice.

The odds are stacked against them for sure.  But, you will not be shortchanged with their efforts.

I have grown to admire this rag-tag bunch and their resolve and battle.  And I would very much like to see them rewarded.

But, this week is going to require plenty of good fortune and all hands on deck.  It will be can't miss TV, and I would certainly advise you to enjoy the playoffs (or, our version of the playoffs) while you can.

Let's hope it lasts beyond Saturday.

Bag of Pucks - April 16 - Dead Cat Bounce Edition

The life-cycle of champion teams in sports is often limited to a very short number of years strung together where everything happened in concert to lead to greatness.  I say this only because as everyone looks at Chicago as the gold standard in the Western Conference, it was the spring of 2006 when I was at the United Center one spring day with roughly 5,000 die-hard Blackhawks' fans who decided that they still wished to witness hockey at the NHL level and decided to come see the Stars.

That is why whenever I hear people talk about Chicago Blackhawks hockey in reverent terms, it must be to marvel at their franchise makeover rather than their tradition of die-hard excellence.  As the teenage version of me would attest, there was no better place to fall in love with the game of hockey than Chicago Stadium, but since William Wirtz traded Ed Belfour, Jeremy Roenick, and finally, Chris Chelios from their team of the early 1990's, they had gone largely dormant for almost 15 years when people wondered how a great hockey town could turn its back on hockey.

Regardless, when the Stars lost to Chicago on Monday night, it was meaningful for a few reasons;  1) it ended their 5-game win streak that had them in a position to seize the final playoff spot if they can finish strong and 2) the likely matchup in the 1st round would be against these same Chicago Blackhawks.

As so many games happen in such a small stretch of time, let us recall that 2 weeks ago, this season was declared over by the Stars themselves - that is at least the decision makers who traded away Derek Roy, Jaromir Jagr, and Brenden Morrow within a week in an effort to start anew with picks and prospects for 2013-14.

I absolutely agreed with those moves and the decision the Stars made.  At some point, one must decide the upside of a move versus the downside of not making it.  For once, the Stars decided that risking a future gain for a small profit in the present wasn't worth it.  And they were right.

But, then what happened?  With many called up from the AHL, they went on a run at Anaheim and at San Jose where they finished the trip with an unlikely 4 points.  They returned home to take on a Kings team that had humiliated them the week before and beat them straight up for win #3 on the trot.  Last Friday, it was a very impressive win in Nashville and then a back-to-back win against those same Sharks on Saturday on home ice.  5 wins in a row - a season high - with the last 3 being with Richard Bachman between the pipes.

What the heck was going on?

How was a team that seemed in the mix to sink to the top of the draft lottery by season's end putting together a legitimate win streak against solid competition to the tune of a 5-game cumulative score of 20-9?  It is both proof that sports are difficult to predict and that gambling is a very bad idea.

Somehow, they were playing better hockey despite subtracting from their group.  Not just the players they traded away, mind you, but the best player in the organization for much of the recent past, Kari Lehtonen.  It truly made very little sense, if you dig deep and try to sort out what was going on.

It led me to a term that is seldom used but fun to discuss, the "dead cat bounce".  This, basically, tries to define the phenomenon of a stock that rises briefly after a sharp decline.  An uptick in performance can get some people to buy-in, only to realize (after it is too late) that they fell for the dead cat bounce.  It is named, quite appropriately, because a dead cat falling from a great height will bounce back up briefly.  It doesn't mean it is suddenly alive again.  It will be motionless on the pavement after that initial bounce.

Understandably, this does not sit well with many fans.  They want to believe that suddenly this team figured everything out and is ready to rise up the standings and maybe go on a long playoff run.  But, the entire time I watch this stretch, I look for indicators that they are suddenly fixed, and I don't see a ton of evidence that says this turn in play can last.

In the first 36 games, the Stars conceded 31 shots per game.  They were getting about 26.7, and if you talk to any analysts out there, they will tell you that puck possession and shots on goal are the best metrics that correlate to winning.   And all season long, despite their attempts to change this, the Stars have conceded more than they have created on a rather consistent basis.

In the 5-1 stretch since April 4, they have generated 24.1 shots per game and have conceded 30.3 for a differential that is actually worse than what it was.  This, by the way, would verify conventional wisdom that says if you lose some of your better players for a stretch of time, your performance will generally worsen.

They outshot just 1 opponent in those 6 games and were dismantled in the face-off circle (as per usual) 197-173.  They have received dynamite goaltending and have received some wonderful abnormalities on shot percentages (Alex Chiasson scoring on 50% of his shots after scoring on 10% in the AHL), but overall, it is the same team except without 4 veteran players who were all above-average contributors at their best.  We also shouldn't completely discount the idea that a few of those teams - especially early in the streak - may not have had their proper "game faces" on for a meeting with a Stars team that had just sold off much of its assets.  The longer this stretch goes and the bigger the sample size, we are seeing that equalize as well.  Chicago did not take the Stars lightly on Monday, nor did the Sharks on Saturday.

I know there is no room for nuance when we discuss our sports teams, but I think there needs to be room for plenty when talking about the Stars.  I think there are some very interesting pieces for moving forward, but I never thought that this brief bounce in performance meant anything long-term.  Could it save jobs?  Could it lead to a playoff-run?  It just didn't make logical sense.

They still have many holes in the way they play hockey.  They seldom appear to be capable of dominating an opponent - something good teams enjoy several times a season.  They rarely pin their opponents in the other end, but often - including last night - still get pinned in their own end.  They still have a tiny blue-line that can get over-powered in puck battles and now lack at least one play-making center to help their wingers to find scoring chances.

That doesn't mean that they can't make the playoffs this year, because obviously, they are close to the finish line and the smaller the number of games, the more possible a "hot team" or irregularity can come into play.

But, is this team closer to being a legitimate NHL contender than they were a month ago?  Yes, in terms of young assets on their way, but no, in terms of the 20 players that can take the ice each night at the .  This is a very long road and the Stars seem to have an idea how they want to get there.  Almost none of it revolves around anything that can be done before this summer.  So, in the meantime, allow your coach to see what he can get out of the resources he has available.  If that is enough to get them post-season hockey, there is almost no downside to that in terms of gaining experience in high-stakes environments.

They have some of the pieces in place and many talented kids on the way.  Unlike Chicago, it doesn't appear that any generational talent is in the system (Jonathan Toews or Patrick Kane), but you don't know that for sure until they develop.

I guess the point to this little stretch is that I don't believe it is sustainable and I don't think it suggests that the Stars are a significantly better team than they were a month ago.  That doesn't necessarily matter because the standings are the standings and there is nothing subjective to where they stand.  They do have a very difficult finishing stretch ahead of them and I would love to see post-season hockey here for the 1st time since George W Bush was our president.

But, part of this rebuild is staying the course and staying patient.  Recognize the strides they are making while understanding the distance yet to cover.  Know that it takes time and that they are restlessly trying to get there.

There are short-term plays and long-term plays in life and in sports.  The Stars made a long-term play to make themselves better when they traded their expiring contracts for assets.  We won't know for years if they made sound decisions and we will never know if the team would have won 5 in a row if they didn't make any deals.  That is why sports is so intoxicating and maddening.  You just don't know so many things that would be useful to know.

But, seeing a kid like Chiasson with kids like Eakin and Dillon tell you that there are young trees replacing the old ones.  They don't grow up overnight, but they do grow fast.  And watching the growth in 2013 might be worthwhile when we look back in a few years.

Let's see what they can do in these final 6 games to earn more hockey this spring.

Bag of Pucks - April 9 - Size Matters

Depending on where you look, you can often find 17 different weight classes in the sport of boxing.  These weight classes range from 105 to Heavyweight and cut everything into segments of between 5 and 8 pounds.  In that sport, it is often thought of as a major issue for a fighter to deal with the brute strength of someone one weight class or two up the ladder.  A few pounds can make all of the difference in the world.

Meanwhile, in mixed martial arts, they have fewer weight classes, but the still the divide exists.  For someone to leave 170, like Georges St Pierre to move up to 185 to fight Anderson Silva, it seems like a gap that is tough to overcome.  Meanwhile, when Silva did go tangle at 205, he just dazzled those who follow the sport because the weight did not seem to affect him like it did mere mortals.  UFC legend BJ Penn saw his legend dimmed by trying 170 when at 155 he was a force that will not soon be forgotten. He just tried to defy science and found out why it doesn't always work.

I tell you all of this in this week's discussion about the Dallas Stars because weight matters.  A lot.  As does strength and size in general.  There is a reason there are weight classes in combat sports.  To attempt to equalize the fact that size matters.  Without weight classes, things are more dependent on simple science running its course.

In the NFL, the Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl.  Perhaps coincidentally, they also had the largest team in the NFL based on average body weight.  It doesn't determine every game, but when physicality matters, you can either be the hammer or the nail.

Which brings us to the National Hockey League, a sport where hits happen every minute and a scramble for a loose puck in a goal mouth often comes down to who can hold their ground and who can be pushed out of the way.  There are seldom calls to regulate the situation, as it is often a survival of the fittest sequence, where the stronger team gets to the more loose pucks on a more regular basis.

Does it determine everything?  Of course not.  But does it give teams that little edge by being bigger?  It certainly is worth considering.

When the Stars won the 1999 Stanley Cup, they had a legendary blue-line from a standpoint of versatility and size.  They could do just about anything you wanted to do - if you wish to move the puck they had Sergei Zubov and Darryl Sydor and if you wished to get physical, say hello to the giant Derian Hatcher, Craig Ludwig, and Richard Matvichuk.  Relying on sketching size and weights from old records, we believe the average height and weight of that group that also included Shawn Chambers was 6'2 1/2" and 214.8 each.  That is a huge group by today's standards and in 1999 it was even larger.

Now, when we have recently seen teams crash the net against the Stars, we see Dallas features a blue-line that has very little size, save for new potential-savior Brenden Dillon who at 6'3, 228 is quite a find after losing Sheldon Souray.  Add Dillon to Philip Larsen, Alex Goligoski, Stephane Robidas, Trevor Daley, and even the larger Aaron Rome, and you still sit with a group that sits at 6'0" and 201.8 each.

As you can tell, that is a drop of two-and-a-half inches and 13 pounds, per player.  Or, to put it in boxing terms, 2 weight classes per man for the entire group.  And you wonder why these guys can't clear the crease like the good 'ol days.  While the entire league is getting bigger, the Stars are shrinking.

This leads us to how this particular Stars team has been built, and why they are attempting to fix their massive size deficiencies.  This is not comparing them to the best team in Stars history, this is comparing them to the league in which they now compete, in an effort to regain status as a playoff-team and eventually a contender to win the Stanley Cup.  Again, let us remind those who think I am simply equating size to success, that it doesn't determine everything in this sport.  But, there is a reason teams over-draft looking for the next Milan Lucic on the wing.  Size can cause the opponent a huge amount of issues, and you would rather be the team that is causing problems than the team that is trying to figure out how to deal with them.

Every year, Toronto NHL journalist James Mirtle catalogues the league by height and weight. To my knowledge, this excludes goalies and players that do not play enough to qualify, and it does use the very dicey listings in media guides to try to keep things fair.  And according to his list for the 2012 season, the Stars were the 29th heaviest (199.3) and 26th tallest team (6'0.7) in the NHL.

Then, for 2013, they actually shrunk again.  This season (at the start of the year) they were the 29th heaviest team again, but down to 197.2 per player, and they dropped to the 28th tallest team at 6'0.4 per player.  This, of course, is when you add Derek Roy and Ray Whitney to an already tiny team.

This caused people like me to stress about the Stars being bullied around the ice.  Some take that to mean that I want more guys who enjoy fighting, but that really isn't it.  Size in hockey has very little to do with fighting, but rather loose pucks in the crease or the old coach cliche of a puck going in the corner and 2 guys go in with 1 coming out with the puck.  Who is going to win these man-battles for the little piece of rubber?  And who are the two heaviest teams in the NHL right now?  The Los Angeles Kings (the defending Cup Champion) and the San Jose Sharks - teams that play your tiny blue-line constantly.

So, aside from depressing those who agree that this is an issue, there appears to be hope on the rise.  Big Alex Chiasson is 6'4, 207 and he will get to 215-220 in time.  Lane MacDermid who might have a spot on the 4th line next season is 6'3, 205 and appears much bigger.  Brett Ritchie might be the biggest of them all even though he is listed at 6'3, 209 right now at the age of 19.  1st round pick and center of the future Radek Faksa is already 6'3, 205 at the age of barely 19, too.  And about that blue-line?  Well, the hope of the franchise is developing down there.  Jamie Oleksiak, who has so much expectation heaped on him, is 6'7, 242, or perhaps the guy who with Dillon could be Hatcher and Matvichuk.  Joe Morrow and Kevin Connauton are both 6'1, with Morrow already above league average size at 205, but Connauton is listed at 185.

Again, the exercise here is not to draw conclusions strictly on height and weight.  Martin St Louis and Theo Fleury, and Doug Gilmour have all taught us that size doesn't matter as much as being strong on the puck and sheer will, but it can't hurt to want to find your way back into the top half of the league in size.  And when you are building the roster and deciding which players you wish to invest in, you keep in the front of your mind this discussion of size.

If the average player in the NHL in 2013 is 6'1 and 203.5 lbs, then, putting $30 million on Derek Roy (5'9, 185) or Mike Ribeiro (5'11, 178) as your 2nd center is a risky play.  That is why I believe Joe Nieuwendyk continues to look for a better option in that spot.

You can have small players and win in this league.  Just not too many.  And you can really make the case that the Stars have become too small and therefore have been pushed around too much.  I believe the front office sees this (albeit perhaps a bit later than you would like) and is working to address it quickly.  We shall see how that happens.

The meek may inherit the earth, but they seldom win the Stanley Cup.

Bag of Pucks - April 2 - Trade Deadline Eve Mailbag Edition

Tomorrow is the day.  The last day of the NHL calendar year when you may trade assets and regain value for players who are on expiring deals.  In July, those assets turn to dust as they become unrestricted free agents and you get nothing for them.  It is generally a tough decision for NHL General Managers to know when to hold them and when to fold them.

But, this should not be that tough a decision.  For the Dallas Stars have shown on the ice that while they may be huffing and puffing, they are surely not blowing any houses down in 2013.  A playoff drought that is now 4 years and counting looks assured to hit 5 years in just a matter of weeks.

The drawing board is being summoned, and the Stars are being told to head back to it.  This is altogether disappointing and depressing for those of us in the area who thought that they might be able to get in the mix again this year - especially with a shortened season compressing everyone closely together.  Maybe this would be their year that things fall magically into place, right?

Ummm.  No.

The Morning of March 12, I wrote in this space the following:

9 of the next 11 are home for the Stars.  They need to hit the afterburners starting tonight against Nashville.  If on April 1 they are not sitting pretty, then it is doubtful that 2013 will be a playoff year.  They simply must shoot for 16 points out of the next 11 games.  That won't be easy, but then again, it never is. 

They shot for 16 points and they found 9.

That projection was hoping for a run that would get them 8-3 during a month where they were predominantly at home.  That was the golden opportunity that they had pointed to.  During that stretch, they went 4-6-1, and were outscored 39-27.  They had particularly deflating home nights when they were shutout at home by Nashville (4-0), destroyed in front of the home crowd by Chicago (8-1), deflated on home ice by Minnesota (7-4), and then the back to back in the last 2 days as Los Angeles (3-2) and Anaheim (4-0) decided to show Dallas and the dwindling home crowd who was boss.

Now, with 13 games to play, you can see how it would take 9 wins roughly to get in the mix for the final playoff spot, and if you can see a scenario under which they can take 9 of their next 13 games (with 8 of them on the road against playoff opponents), well then you and I might be watching 2 different teams.

Sadly, it appears time to reset and re-rack yet again.  This could cost jobs and certainly cost more ground in the pursuit to get this city fired up for their local NHL offering, but the writing seems clearly on the wall.  If some of the expiring deals that we discussed in this spot a few weeks ago can be flipped for assets that can help moving forward, then those moves need to be made.

The Stars are in a great spot where many of the names at this trade deadline of great quality have already been moved around the league.  As we get to deadline day, the team in the catbird's seat as long as they agree that they are on the outside-looking-in would be the Stars.  They have assets of quality and the rest of the league that is pursuing a Cup might be calling Dallas with offers.  If you can have a few teams calling on the same asset, now you can have an auction.  And auctions at trade deadline time between 2 teams in desperation to add a piece and don't want to back down to the other can turn out really well to the seller.

And that could be the Stars.

Let's answer your mail:

Good morning Bob,

It's time for Nieuwendyk to go. The guy has made mistake after mistake. Starting with the firing of Tippett. That guy has done nothing but win with no talent and no money in PHX.  

The Neal trade is obvious.  

Not trading Richards. There was 0 chance they were going to resign him. The Ryder trade was proof he has no confidence in being able to sign a Free Agent.  

The fact he stacked a team with 18 skaters and only 1 right handed winger makes for awkward fast breaks and an inability to have a proper cycle game. No one ever talks about this. 

That's my case to let GM Joe go.  

PS I know it would never happen but it would be great in so many ways if Ruff was the next Stars coach.  

Dustin Perez

There are plenty of people who have lost faith in Nieuwendyk as Stars' GM.  I understand the frustration, but would also remind people that we are falling into the cycle of change that can be a disease in certain franchises.  Remember, there were many who were sick and tired of Doug Armstrong and Dave Tippett.  Then, Les Jackson and Brett Hull were in trouble.  Then, Marc Crawford didn't know what he was doing.  Now, we have Glen Gulatzan and Nieuwendyk to blame.  Changing coaches and general managers every few years and never making progress (instead, regressing) is a downward spiral that leads to nowhere good.

That doesn't mean that you never fire anyone, but I might argue that Joe has put a young team together and very much improved the youth system substantially in the last few years.  This team might be a bold strike or two away from looking like one of the up and coming teams in the league soon with many prospects knocking on the door to the NHL coming.   The James Neal deal hurts badly and the firing of Tippett seems ridiculous now.  But, I have no 2nd guessing of the Ryder deal and they couldn't trade Richards if he didn't want to move.  Also, any cases against Joe must completely ignore that he found the Stars best player, Kari Lehtonen, for nothing and also was on post when Brenden Dillon (their best defensemen moving forward) was found for nothing.

Personally, I am tired of change.  They may need to make more, but now that this team is starting to look like a young and promising organization again, I am not sure I want a completely new set of decision makers who may choose to hit reset on the 5-year plan again.  Joe has not been perfect and I fear Gulatzan is not back next year, but don't count me amongst those who think Joe only makes poor moves.  Even the Jagr move has worked out very well, and I thought he was crazy to do that.

Which brings us to this one:

I contend that the Stars took a flyer on Jagr, hoping he'd play well, in order to flip him at the deadline for a young player.  Stars have to trade him. He's not part of the future. That said, what market, if any, is there for him? 

Shane

Ah, yes.  The Jagr market.  Maybe the most interesting decision here at the deadline because for some reason people are starting to make the case about locking him up.  I find this talk intriguing because he has been such a find, but also reckless in that history tells us that players that age are only going to have one ending.

Jaromir Jagr has been a real treat here in Dallas.  His reputation (the good one that has appeared in the last few years) was spot on and he has been a wonderful example to young guys about what it takes to become all you can be.  That said, if they don't deal him to someone who wants a guy for right this moment to help tip the scales for them in their cup run this spring, then I will be disappointed.  You sign veterans like this hoping that they build value for the trade deadline so you can pick up a player at the start of his career or a pick and cash in your small return on investment.  Jagr could be the centerpiece of an auction and you have this opportunity where clearly teams must have interest.  He has been fantastic and if only to boost a power play with his uncanny vision, the phone must be ringing.

I have no idea the inner conversations between player and team.  I suppose it is possible that he was promised he would not be shopped or has said he wants to play in Dallas again next year.  But, let's not lose sight of the target here.  He is playing a shortened season where 35 games seems like plenty this year because it is 75% of the season, but in normal years (like next year), 35 games is but a drop in the bucket.  He slowed down last year in Philadelphia as the year went on.  Why?  Because he is old!  I love the player and the story and I cannot believe it has worked out so well.  But, of all the players that need to be cashed in, this seems like the one that MUST be dealt.

You think a guy like Trevor Daley gets moved?  Does his contract hinder him being traded, or is he part of the veteran leadership on this club, like Robidas?
Thanks.  You are my leader!
Joseph Ruscitti

 One really interesting question is whether any Stars defensemen would get moved.  Daley might be the least likely because of his long contract that runs through 2017, but at a reasonable number of $3.3m a year.  Goligoski is not likely either because his performance doesn't match his money of $4.6m through 2016.  That actually might make Stephane Robidas as the most likely to get moved, although I think the Stars like him too much to do so.  He is just the type of guy you want running your room and has certainly been nothing but professional his entire run in Dallas.

However, if you keep all 3 of those players, add in Dillon and either Philip Larsen, Jamie Oleksiak, and Aaron Rome or Jordie Benn, you see that you have logjams on your cap and in your lineup.  If the Stars really wish to fix their long standing issue of no top-end defensemen, then they need to make sure they don't have too many mid-tier defensemen locked up.  Unfortunately, it might be too late unless you can move one of those top 3 out.  Being so far under the cap, it might not be that big of a deal, but we shouldn't be too shocked if a defenseman gets moved just to clear a position for the summer.  You can see how that rare top defenseman can really change how the entire unit would look.  Could you imagine Ryan Suter at the top of this group?  Heck, even if they kept Sheldon Souray, this whole blueline would make more sense.

What's the expected reaction to the fact that Derek Roy has no more contract talks? Does that lower his price?

Brandon

In case you are wondering about Brandon's reference, it was tweeted out yesterday by Renaud Lavoie that: "No more contract extension talks for Derek Roy. Hearing Canucks have interest in him. We'll see if he'll be traded or not."

The Roy deal is another complex and urgent issue for the Stars.  I have talked about this plenty, but to recap, I just can't justify breaking the bank on Roy.  He has simply not made a large enough impression on the team for me to say that I think they need to re-sign him at his price.  I think the Stars would love him at $4m and he would love them at $6m.  That gap is too big when I am sure they would like to do 5 years and he would love to do 8 years.  Their contract might be $20m (5 years/$4m) or so and his ideal deal is closer to $48m (8 years/$6m).

So, although your leverage is lessened when that word gets out, it doesn't drop the price he could fetch. Teams need centers and he brings plenty to the table for a squad.  Of all of the deals, this one could get the most back because he could re-sign with the new team, thus being a major chip for that destination and a head start on free agency.  I think he could get you more than the Morrow-Morrow trade did, and if the Stars can flip Roy and Jagr here at the deadline for prospects/kids, they would be doing the difficult, but proper thing.

In closing, it is a really odd situation that the Stars find themselves in again.  But, I think the Kings and Ducks games that were just completed at least give them a clear and proper reading on where they are at.

I hate to miss the playoffs again, but they are in this spot because on the ice, they can't pass the tests yet.  It hurts to sell off, but it often can put you in a position moving forward that can get you out of this cycle if you can bite the bullet on the short term to gain for the long term.

Now, it is up to them to pull the trigger.

Bag of Pucks - 3/27 - The Morrow Edition

On Sunday, Brenden Morrow was traded to Pittsburgh, and in many ways a door was closed on a Stars era that was a lot of fun for many of us.

Morrow was the last player connection to the Stars teams of greatness as he played on the 2000 Stanley Cup Finalist that fell finally to New Jersey at Reunion Arena when Jason Arnott beat Ed Belfour in Game 6 in overtime.  He then grew up in front of our eyes and eventually ran through nearly the entire life-cycle of a player until he was dealt a few days ago as a reminder that the clock ticks for every man.

It is very odd to realize how fast a player's career goes.  It is something that never crossed my mind when I was younger, but now that I have been lucky enough to have covered the Stars for 15 seasons, I have managed to outlive everyone but Ralph and Razor it seems.  These players have a short amount of time to be all that they can be down on the ice, and then in the blink of an eye, they go from being the kid in the room to the old man.

Seldom do we see that entire life-cycle before our very eyes, but with Brenden Morrow, it seems that we saw most of it.  Now, I think I speak for all of Dallas in wishing him the very best as he moves forward and attempts to put on a show this spring that will allow him to play several more years in the National Hockey League.  If he does what he can do, he will set himself up for a 2nd act of his career that could be pretty special.

But, from a Dallas standpoint, when his former team-mate and now general manager Joe Nieuwendyk pulled the trigger, it absolutely was the right move to make.  They had another month on his contract at an amount that had no longer paid him the market value for his contributions.  Players all have expiration dates, and for this job in this place, Morrow looked like a guy who had asked a lot of his body and couldn't give what he once could.  He deserves full credit for rebuilding his value by getting his body right, because this trade would not have been available a year ago.

The Stars did what they had to do, which is to take an expiring asset in which they may not have a desire to keep long-term and flip it for a young player with a chance of being something nice.  In return, they take a 1st round pick from the 2011 draft in the form of Joe Morrow.  If Joe Morrow gives them anything at the NHL level, it will be more than they would have received in return for Brenden when he was scheduled to leave in July.  It was just good business for both parties.  The Stars for securing a piece in return for an expiring contract, and Brenden for lifting his no-trade clause to play for the Stanley Cup and his next contract this spring in Pittsburgh.

I like the move and I can't wait to watch Morrow go deep into the playoffs, while the Stars try to simply make the playoffs without him.  But, they, unlike Pittsburgh, are in no position to "go for broke" this spring.  They are playing for the big picture.  And maybe Joe Morrow can be in that picture.  We shall see.

Meanwhile, as I reflect on turning the page on the Brenden Morrow book, it does allow one to enjoy some playoff memories - back to days when Morrow was a baby-faced bull in a china shop, earning his captaincy and playing meaningful hockey deep in the spring.  He was a proper team leader who had his team follow him into battle.

Below, please see the 3 moments (in chronological order) that would be the top 3 memories I would have from Brenden's run here (aside from all of the reversals) as captain and all-around stud for the Stars in the last decade plus of hockey:

1. 2007 Playoffs - Skating to the Canucks bench and challenging whoever was up for it to a battle on one leg.  Here is what I wrote the next morning about that exchange:

Brenden Morrow is my new hockey hero. He rises to the occasion like a captain should. He gets mad. He gets even. He plays like this is the only thing that matters to him. He is perfect for this role. To see him skate over to the Canucks bench on one leg, after that punk Burrows offered a cheap shot, was the stuff of legend - considering his Game 5 OT goal that kept the series moving. There can be no further questions about his capability to be this team’s captain.

Seeing the video makes me want to watch this fantastic series again.  The 2007 Canucks series was one in which the Stars dropped a Game 7 up in Canada (as Tom Hicks watched on a television from a Rangers game, as I recall).  Both goalies were stars, but so was Brenden Morrow.  Morrow had been given the "C" not too long before that time from mate and legend Mike Modano.  There was question at that point whether that made any sense.  And I think this was one of the moments that took that question away.

Here is the video:




2.  Morrow sends a hit at the end of regulation in 2008 Game 6 against the Sharks that rocks the Arena.
I can tell you specifically where I was when this hit happened.  It was a fantastic moment in an amazing series in which Brenden was there over and over again.  Again, here is what I wrote in this space the morning after:

Morrow’s hit on Milan Michalek was so thunderous that the arena exploded. But, when Michalek stayed down on the ice, it got quiet really fast. I have been unable to find any reports on his health this morning, but we sure hope he is fine. The impact of that hit was felt the rest of the night. From the Shark’s standpoint, they lost one of their best players. And from the Stars’ side, it seemed like the captain making a statement that the Stars were not going to be denied. 

The video:



3.  Morrow scores the goal to win the series in the 4th Overtime of that 2008 Game 6 and push the Stars to the Western Conference Finals.  It was the early morning of Cinco De Mayo and it was a moment to scream at.  Once again, from the next morning:

And then there is the captain. O Captain, Our Captain. What in the heck could you say about Brenden Morrow? Somehow, he was credited with 19 hits. Somehow, he never looked tired. And somehow, Morrow put the game out of its misery at 1:24am. And for the second consecutive Game 6, the pure joy on the battered face of the Stars’ captain shows that the paychecks are nice – but you can’t buy the feeling of winning in the playoffs. Razor was comparing his performance in these playoffs to Mark Messier’s legendary runs. I will defer to Razor since they were mates back in the day, but allow me to say I have never seen anyone will his team to a new level like Brenden is right now. 

I would call that the single biggest goal scored since Belfour, Hitchcock, and company did their thing back in the golden era.  Morrow was front and center and put the Sharks to the sword.



It is tough to see a player lose a little of their ability and then to say goodbye altogether.  I think everyone wants to see him rally in a big spot now that he has moved on.

He will always have his place in Dallas hockey lore and was an absolute fantastic captain who did everything asked of him while squeezing everything he could out of his abilities.  In doing so, he has put the bar nice and high for whoever succeeds him as captain of the Dallas Stars.

Good luck, Mini-Mo.  And thanks for all you did.

Bag of Pucks - March 19

April 3 is the NHL Trade Deadline in this oddly constructed 2013 NHL Season.

That gives us 15 days to look at options for the Stars to consider as they head down the road of trying to get from where they are to where they wish to go.  And at times, they seem a long ways from where they hope to go.

And given that in the last 5 games, they have pulled 3 points out of 10, it might be time for the suits in the front office to take a hard look at the alternative plan.  Nobody likes to ever consider the alternative plan until reality hits them right in the face.  When you start each season, you bravely announce that the playoffs are the goal (or the Stanley Cup for the extra-brave) and you march into the year filling your fans' heads with optimism and hope.

Then, when things start to go badly, a team must make that tough decision.  The players and coach don't need to be involved in this tough decision, because you want them playing as hard and trying to win their next game no matter what.  There is a belief amongst fans that there is a time to "tank" and try to work your way up the draft ladder by design (Hello: Seth Jones), but that is a very dangerous proposition of inviting cancer into your organization (losing, not Jones) by authorizing a mentality where anything less than winning is welcomed.  This is fun talk for message boards but I don't believe for a second that most of the proud men in sports would ever consider trying to lose just for a few draft spots.  That is everything opposite of the wiring of these men who ascend to this level of their profession.  They get indigestion from losing a game and to lay down and surrender when people are paying money to follow your team is the unpardonable sin.  Some fans call it good business, but few men inside the lines would agree an even fewer would participate.

Anyway, back to the tough decision.  When a team gets to a certain fork in the road, it has to make a choice.  Are we in this race or aren't we?  What is our highest upside of achievement in this year and where can we help the big picture if we sacrifice this year's upside for the future?  In other words, can we flip some of our assets to give this thing a boost moving forward and making next year or the year after a more likely target?

Fans and media often don't want to hear about playing the long game, because we want payoff sooner than later 100 times out of 100.  But, a sports organization always needs to play the "long game" which at times requires you to trade a guy in his prime (say, Phil Kessel) for a few picks (that turn into Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton).  This might mean that you lose one of your better players but then when you have 2 fantastic young teenagers in exchange, you are playing the long game properly.

As I type this, the Stars have completed 28 games of a 48-game season.  They have 20 games to go, and this morning they wake up in the 10th spot, just 1 point behind the holder of the 8th and final playoff position, San Jose.  Of course, had they lost to Calgary last night, they would have spent this morning in the 14th spot, an indication of how insanely close everything is in the Western Conference for another year in a row.

They are so close to getting in the tournament, and yet, they are a team that has to remain realistic to itself since they were "so close" in 2011 and missed on the final day, and "so close" in 2012 and faded late as well.  Each time they fade late, they miss an opportunity to try to flip assets at the deadline and help their future.

But, they also have a fan-base that is anxious.  The possibility of a 5-year playoff drought is a difficult milestone to swallow.  The Ducks have never had more than a 3-year absence from post-season play and the Sharks have had 5 years COMBINED of missing the playoffs in their 21-year franchise history.    The Coyotes had a 6-year run of missing the playoffs from '03 to '09, until you helped them hire Dave Tippett as their coach.  They haven't missed the playoffs since.  Tippett, of course, has coached in the NHL 9 seasons and has missed the playoffs just once - the year he was fired in Dallas.

And then there is the Kings.  The Kings also had a 6-year absence from post-season play from '03-'09, but then they have ruined it for anyone looking to dismiss one's playoff chances as they squeezed in last season to the final playoff spot and then hauled off and won their first Stanley Cup as an 8-seed.  And now, they will be cited by each and every person that wants to keep the "go for it" posture moving forward.  "The 2012 Kings got in and won it all!" - why can't we?

Of course, that is why with 20 games to go you are in a tough spot.  With a possibility of 40 possible points left to fight for, why would you let a 1-point deficit make you pessimistic?  On the other hand, do you think you have a similar roster that like the 2012 Kings could just get in and then start mowing down teams with high seeds and by extension, superior talent?

April 3rd is the day of Game #36, so you will get 7 more games to determine where you are.  Then, with a team that has quite a few useful parts, you would have to decide if you should cash in those parts now or potentially lose them for nothing in a few months as the Stars have their share of expiring contracts.  A few weeks ago, they cashed in the expiring deal of Michael Ryder for Erik Cole and that is a move that I have enjoyed.  Cole is a power player who flashes every night and while the stats aren't overwhelmingly in his favor at this juncture, I think that was a nice addition for the next two season - especially if they lose Brenden Morrow and their only real net presence on the roster right now to free agency.

Let's look at each of the Stars veteran parts that might make sense to flip for a pick or a kid to help replenish the roster with even more players who are early in their careers:

Derek Roy: We might as well start with the most complicated case of them all.  Roy has the potential to be the 2nd-line center that the Stars have been seeking for a while and he does a lot of things really well.  He is 29 years old and has done a few things to make this a difficult decision.  It appears that the two sides have discussed a contract extension, but also that the two parties are not overly close on their numbers.  The Stars have to hold the line at what they think he will be worth and Roy sees some of the numbers around the league and considers himself due for a major extension.  He also knows that he might be one of the top centers in free agency and might wish to bet on himself this summer that someone will throw a contract at him for many years (7?) and the possibility of $5m or more per year.  If the Stars do that, they have to be confident that he is not in decline - like Buffalo thought when they dealt him - and will still be an exceptional center when he is 35.  Is that prudent?  Or do the Stars keep shopping for the center ice compliment for Jamie Benn and move Cody Eakin up for the rest of the year, flip Roy for some handsome prospects and keep shopping?  I think the Stars would do 5 years at $4m or $4.5 (total deal: $22m or so), but I don't think they want to get in that $35m-$40m range for Roy.  And I can't blame them.  I might make another run at the player and his agent and see if a compromise can be struck, but if there is no extension before April 3, I think you have to trade him.  He would bring you the most in a deal, as the new team would be the favorite to re-sign him moving forward.

Brenden Morrow: Another sticky situation, as he has been a fantastic player for you and your captain for many years.  But, it seems like his body is not what it was and the $4m price has outlived its value.  The great news for the Stars and Morrow here is that he is a very respected veteran that people around the league see as just the type of guy to add at the deadline.  His value is actually more in a trade than keeping around and there is reason to believe that you might be able to get something decent.  I also think that he would be up for a chance to play deep in to the spring and might welcome a new chapter to his story.  I hate to see him go, but I think the time has come and might be a worthy move to make.

Eric Nystrom:  Not sure how much value he has as a trade, but I do think I would be fine with keeping him around to play that checking-line grit role.  You would take calls, but his price is such that he can be a candidate for a new deal for next season this summer.

Jaromir Jagr:  This one might require a visit with the player and see what he wants to do.  He holds all of the cards and perhaps you ask him where his comfort lies.  He plays on a year-to-year basis and may be interested in another Cup run, but I honestly have no idea if he wants to stay here and maybe even consider another season in Dallas or if he wants to move.  He hides his cards well, but if he wants to be dealt, you might be pleased with a reasonable return, as well.

Those are the 4 expiring free agents on the roster (and Jordie Benn).  There are a few other parts that you could see gathering interest around the league that would have additional years left on their deals.  Those names would include Vernon Fiddler and Stephane Robidas.  Robidas, like Morrow, has a no-trade clause, but also like Morrow might welcome a chance to go play for a contender.

Personally, I think I would like to open up a defense spot moving forward anyway, and with Robidas, Trevor Daley, Alex Goligoski, and Aaron Rome all on long-term deals, with Brenden Dillon and Jamie Oleksiak securing spots as regulars, you actually don't have a ton of flexibility in the area of your roster that needs the most improvement.  If everyone has nailed down a spot, you might need to move something out before you start moving things in over the summer.  And I trust that is part of their long term plan - if not priority #1 - to find a defenseman or two that can be in the top spots as 25 minute guys moving forward.

They have improved their spot with plenty of youth on the roster over last year's squad, but this is a work in progress.  That is why to fall in love with a low-payoff opportunity in 2013 is missing a chance at a brighter future.

Tough decisions are heading this way and with 15 days to go, the war-room is full of activity.

The most important news items for the Dallas Stars between now and April 3rd may or may not have anything to do with their games.

Let's pull up a chair and see what they reveal about their plans and their belief in where they are in all of this.