I have to admit that reading glowing reviews on the direction of an organization without equal time to cynicism is quite a change around here (at least for this particular writer). I am sure it won't continue indefinitely, but with regards to the Dallas Stars and their 14 month run with the organizational makeover, the news continues to be better than good. In the last several days, the Stars have again upgraded their mix with Jason Spezza, Ales Hemsky, Patrick Eaves, and Anders Lindback. 2 Top 6 forwards in 1 day, and 2 depth additions as well. Then, on top of that was the unexpected signing of Vern Fiddler, after most expected that he would elect to take more money and ice time elsewhere.
Frankly, the reviews are fantastic with respect to the talent acquisition department, and the continued influx of players who are now ready to add to the troops that took this franchise back to the playoffs this past spring.
Jim Nill and his staff is receiving the accolades for these acquisitions again, like the "summer of Seguin" in 2013, and there is no debate that if you were to rank the transactions in the last 14 months, the #1 move should remain the hiring of a General Manager who is regarded across the league as one of the best in the business. The feelings, going back to last spring, were that whoever could convince Nill to take over the helm of their organization would reap the benefits for years and years. That much has delivered to be true so far, with the future seemingly plenty bright.
However, I don't want to forget to recognize the ownership that has made this possible. As I have said before, Joe Nieuwendyk had his stamp on the farm system full of talented kids, but was sabotaged by bankruptcy and indifferent ownership for much of his tenure. Tom Gaglardi wanted his own guy to run things when he was ready to invest heavily in the side, and Nieuwendyk did not represent a fresh start. Gaglardi had Nill identified by Jim Lites and company, and then got the deal done to hire his guy. From there, it would only work with aggressive moves, cash investment, and faith in the process.
And for that, I want to make sure Gaglardi is recognized as vital and imperative to this process. When I was younger, I counted owners of franchises as unimportant figureheads who were just the suits they would show in the crowd and pretty much interchangeable. And maybe, in the 1980s when I had that impression, that was closer to the truth. But, in the present day sports-landscape, either a team has an owner that has ambition to push his team to achievement or you wish you did. An owner's motivation could be to fill his arena (to maximize profits) or to get the Cup, or both. The Stars' last owner was driven to get a Cup and was a fan's dream. But, when he over expanded his sports empire, he was bitten by spending more than he had and he suddenly became a fan's nightmare - An owner who could not be bothered with a team's fortunes because his financial empire was collapsing.
For that reason, we should be slow in our judgements of this owner in the long-term. Only the actions over many, many years will reveal his full body of work. However, based on what we do know, I am tickled that Gaglardi appears to be everything I hoped - a guy who wanted badly to put a great team together and is willing to trust brilliant people to help him do that (the one flaw in Jerry Jones' game). So, enter Nill and then, Lindy Ruff.
But, if you wanted to know if they were satisfied with all of the good signs from 2013-14, then the first week in July 2014 should help you see. No, they are not.
There were several things about the 2013-14 Stars that were very impressive. However, the power play was never completely sorted out, the face-off wins were barely more than the face-off losses, and it could easily be argued that the Stars 2nd line was actually one of the best 3rd lines in the sport.
Enter Jason Spezza.
Below is a complete list of the 9 centers in hockey who were both both above 200 points in the last 4 seasons (at least 50 points a year - including the lockout year) and in the Top 50 face-off men in hockey:
Patrice Bergeron, Jonathan Toews, Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, Pavel Datsyuk, Jason Spezza, Sidney Crosby, Claude Giroux and Anze Kopitar.
That is the entire list. Now, please examine that list for players who were available on the open market.
Maybe Joe Thornton and Jason Spezza. Spezza, by the way, missed nearly the entire season in 2012-2013, otherwise, he might be well up that chart even higher.
I won't lie, I might have preferred Thornton because of my better familiarity with his complete game, his size, and his 3 years under contract, and his mastery of the power play; but it doesn't appear he will be moved by the Sharks. Of course, he is also 4 years older than Spezza and therefore if the Stars can make sure this isn't a 1-year rental, then there are tons of things to like here.
They did give up some fine young players, Alex Chiasson the one most are familiar with. For me, I hoped all along to flip Chiasson this summer as the center piece for a number of reasons, including my personal feelings that he was overachieving with his production early in his career (Sell high!) and that the Stars are loaded at wing in their system. He made the most sense to be valuable to others and to be able to center a big deal, and it worked perfectly.
Spezza is not without a few concerns, as trusted voices from around the league have argued he is a bit "too perimeter" these days, but I am more than interested in seeing how a change of scenery suits him. He seems to be exactly what they need as they have lacked a perfect #2 center compliment to Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn and now they seem to have it. Add to that Ales Hemsky on a reasonable 3 year deal on a proven winger who turns 31 in August, and the Stars have a 2nd line just like that. Valeri Nichushkin goes to one line and the other wing can go to either Erik Cole, Colton Sceviour, or my pick, young Brett Ritchie by Thanksgiving.
That fixes your depth issue as Eakin/Roussel/Garbutt are a fine #3 line that jumps on the opposition #1s, your face-off issue - with Spezza, Fiddler, Benn, and Eakin (who is by far the worst, but partly because he is taking draws against that list of centers above), your power play issue as Spezza can really add something there, and you really haven't lost anything of note off your playoff team.
Wow.
Now, many of you are asking how this fixes the blue-line, and I did not forget I have been pounding that table for years and years. But, the idea that they could grow and develop their defense group without losing any of them in their pursuit of Spezza and Seguin is fantastic work. Now, we expect the full arrivals of Patrik Nemeth, Jamie Oleksiak, and John Klingberg in the next 12 months, with Trevor Daley/Alex Goligoski and Jordie Benn/Brenden Dillon providing strong play on the way into the playoffs last year. It isn't Shea Weber and Ryan Suter, but it is homegrown (mostly), reasonably priced, and young with younger pushing them from behind.
The bottom line there is that the best defense is to keep the puck. And the Stars weren't Los Angeles or Chicago in puck possession or Corsi last year, but they were in the Top 10 with the truly strong teams in the NHL. Now, they are adding a formidable 2nd line and the ability to win draws at a very high rate (so they start plays with the puck). This means you are not dropping back and playing defense in your own end all day, and that keeps your defensemen from having to defend.
It looks good on paper, and it looked good on the ice last year. This seems to make too much sense not to try for the prices they paid.
Now, back to Gaglardi - I have received a number of questions about how many players are on the roster and how close the Stars are to the cap ceiling. That's right - the cap CEILING! This tells us that they are looking to make more moves, I would think to gain back some cap room that will allow them to make a move at the deadline to give them that final boost over the finish line next season. Yes, kids, we are back to the days of considering the cap ceiling, not signing Eric Nystrom off waivers to get into compliance with the salary cap floor like the Stars did 2011.
There is great competition to overcome and higher hills to climb than merely the #8 seed, but if this doesn't get you fired up for Opening Night, I don't know what to tell you.
This thing is being built right before your very eyes.
Showing posts with label Jim Nill. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jim Nill. Show all posts
Saturday, July 05, 2014
Monday, July 08, 2013
Bag Of Pucks - July 8
I don't really know how to start this post-draft, post-trade, post-free agency, and post-vacation update on the Dallas Stars offseason as it develops, so let's just dive right in and make the very exciting public declaration:
After several years of not being sure if the Stars were serious, it appears that we now have a hockey organization that is trying to do everything in its power to compete and to use its resources to work its way up the ladder in the NHL game of thrones.
This is most exciting.
Now, before we get carried away, that shift in posture does make me want to defend the work of the predecessors of Jim Nill and his new staff. It is a completely different job description that he is being given than that of Joe Nieuwendyk or even Les Jackson/Brett Hull. Those guys were running a franchise that was either bankrupt, close to bankrupt, or trying to emerge from being bankrupt for most or all of their runs in the post-Doug Armstrong era. They were seldom given the ability to make bold strokes, almost never players in free agency (at least for those that teams actually desired), and if they ever made one poor move (Sean Avery, James Neal) than they were never able to fix it with subsequent moves because they had no more resources to serve as an eraser.
You simply must understand that any personnel man in any sport is not going to be perfect, or even close. The gold standard for perfection these days in Dallas-Fort Worth is clearly Jon Daniels. Daniels, as many will confirm, had his hands dirtied with a number of poor deals with San Diego (the Adam Eaton deal), Chicago (Danks for McCarthy), and Washington (Brad Wilkerson) before finally starting to get things when Mark Teixeira set everything in the right direction. But, it was trial and error. It was swing and miss. It was a guy given the leeway to make a mistake and then fix it. The Stars brass has not been given the benefit of the doubt in a long, long time. That was the way it was and that time appears to be over (we think). But, let's not allow our common sense to be overruled by the knee jerk idea that Nieuwendyk just didn't know what he was doing. He had no resources and really, no chance. I believe that he will recover from this situation and have a fine career moving forward.
Thankfully, when he was fired, new owner Tom Gaglardi had to decide if the time had arrived to pour resources into the situation, hire "his guy", and get serious about winning rather than surviving. He went and got Jim Nill, and now we are seeing the full flex of that muscle early on. The Stars are trying to do exactly what I thought was the primary issue with the franchise when I wrote about this 2 weeks ago:
Looking at the Stars cupboards, they have a wonderful collection of players that seem to be talented and capable of playing in the NHL between the ages of 18-24. They seem rather stacked in "solid" NHL talent and youth, thanks to the way the Nieuwendyk regime was able to flip assets for futures in the last two years.
But, is there "elite" talent here? Is there a Toews or a Kane or a Hossa or a Keith? I believe Jamie Benn has a chance to be that player and on many nights is already there.
What else? I am still holding out hope that Jamie Oleksiak can be a dominant top pairing defensemen when he has had enough time in the oven. Brenden Dillon took such strides these last 3 years that I wonder if we are foolish to act like we know his ceiling. Brett Ritchie has been described as a player with fantastic upside and there are other kids in the system that could be better than "solid". But, as it stands, the bin marked "solid" appears to be full and in great shape. But, the bin that allows a team to compete for Cups is marked "elite" and while there might be some potential in that bin, for the most part it is where much of the league sits normally - close to empty.
They know this. They know that they have lots of 6's and 7's, but they need a 9 or a 10 to make this thing really sing. Of course, that is like a football team saying that they are a Tom Brady away from being a great team. That is both obvious and ridiculous - so is pretty much everyone. But, it is often true.
Elite talent generally requires that you pick #1 or #2 or certainly in the Top 5 picks of a draft to get someone like that. In Chicago's case, Kane was #1, Toews was #3 overall. Like Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, and many of the best of the best, they are all gone very early at the top of the draft. If you never pick up top, then, like many other sports, you have to either get lucky or try to win with a collection of solid pieces, but never have the very best players in the game. In can be done, but it surely is not very likely.
Which leaves the Stars with some interesting questions in a year where they have lots of money, lots of picks, and lots of holes on their squad. Do they combine these resources to go for a bold strike up the draft board?And here we sit, 14 days later, and the Stars have put 2 potentially elite talents in the middle of the roster. Wow. I cannot stress how awesome this makes me feel about the future here.
First, at the draft, they were able to navigate around a number of issues and concerns to nab what many agree is a top 3-5 talent in the 2013 NHL Draft and take Valeri Nichushkin with the 10th pick. As you know from reading my draft preview, he was my #1 hope going into the weekend, so much so that I would have happily entertained trading up to go get him. But, the Stars and Nill held their ground and did not panic. They knew that KHL threats made him less desirable for teams up the board and if they were lucky he might fall right into their laps. He did, they have already signed him, and there have been some who have nabbed him as a prime candidate to win the Calder Trophy for NHL rookie of the year. Imagine that in a Stars uniform.
Then, a few days later, after rumors had flown on draft weekend that the #10 pick might be able to be the pick to go get Tyler Seguin from Boston, the Stars landed the 21-year old talent without parting with that #10 pick at all. In fact, Seguin and Rich Peverley arrive with the ability to be 2 of the top 3 centers for the Stars when the season opens in the same trade. Yes, parting with Loui Eriksson hurts, as does Reilly Smith, Matt Fraser, and Joe Morrow (we hardly knew ye), but in effect, they flipped Brenden Morrow for Peverley, and Loui Eriksson and 2 kids for Seguin - a guy who everyone who follows hockey agrees that he possesses elite ability and just needs a chance to be a center with tons of ice to work it all out.
You want elite? How about a 18 year old winger who looks as fast and strong as Rick Nash? How about a 21-year old center who is locked up for 6 years and can instantly allow you to slide Jamie Benn to his left for the next half-dozen years? This is amazing.
Make no mistake - there are no sure things here. Boston is telling us that Seguin is an underachieving party animal who should not be allowed to Tweet. Russian stars do use the KHL leverage as a tremendous crowbar when contract time arrives and they can certainly go into a dark place where nobody can deal with them. This could go horribly wrong.
But, the Stars now have 2 world class players who might be the two most talented youngsters they have had in their group since....they played in Minnesota? I don't mean to get carried away, but let's remember this isn't a franchise that has ever had nor wanted to have players this young carry the franchise since the days of Mike Modano and Derian Hatcher could barely grow whiskers.
But now, joining the old man, soon to be 24-year old Benn, the Stars have the makings of a team that can roll out fantastic forwards with world class skill - potentially all on the same line and power play.
They have to grow them right and slowly, but they finally have the pieces in place. They also have a top 10 payroll for the 2013-14 season with some other acquisitions that will prove helpful, including Edmonton's Shawn Horcoff and Dan Ellis to backup Kari Lehtonen.
We can visit about their impact sometime soon.
But for today, please understand that while many people are squawking about the relative merits of a twitter account that Seguin operates with varying levels of effectiveness, I am celebrating the on-ice impacts of Valeri and Tyler and that the Stars now have a new day dawning.
They have found more "elite". And apparently are looking for even more.
This is most exciting.
Thursday, June 27, 2013
NHL Draft Day Approaches
I take great pride in following the local NHL club in the offseason, as it is a personal passion of mine more than it is a job. Now, I will tell you with great confidence that I am not qualified to give you much more than I usually do - which is a feel for the Top 15 or so spots in the draft. Sadly, for the last several years, the Stars have been in that range so this has turned into a fair amount relevant discussion.
Last year, when doing this breakdown, we actually nailed Radek Faksa as the guy the Stars would get in this very blog entry. I agree that this is a very unlikely scenario for someone who is as poor at predictions as I am (Bruins in 6), but we can't just give up our attempt to hit 2 in a row, right?
The Stars have a number of great spots in this very deep, highly-praised draft on Sunday. They will select at #10, #29, #40, #54, and #68 in the 1st 3 rounds. 5 picks in the Top 68 is highly disproportionate, and makes the Stars one of the top holders of currency in the early going of a very strong draft. Obviously, it is a rare opportunity to either grab the 5 best players at those spots and continue to populate the organization with heralded prospects, or they can gather some of those chips together and move on up for a bolder strike and a player with a more likely upside.
Last year, I thought the Stars were in the 3rd tier of the draft with their pick at #13. This year, I actually would say they are at the tail end of tier #2. It isn't that different, really, except for the idea that it does appear that if they just hold the pick and take whoever falls to them, they should really get an exceptional player. But, of course, that is excruciating as you wait and hope that the apple of your eye does make it to you. If they feel that the 2nd tier does not match their evaluations on a man-for-man basis, then obviously, you strongly consider a leap up the board if you can do it by packaging #10 and either #40, #54, or #68 to shoot up different distances on the board to somewhere between #6 and #8.
The price is heavy for moving up - especially when teams know you have so many picks - but, the reward might be substantial. That said, a new regime might be more inclined to fill in organizational gaps by simply making sure they have selected many kids who can increase the big picture possibilities in a 5-year plan.
The organization has gone through plenty of trouble to accumulate 2 1st rounders and 2 2nd rounders, and now it is time to make the most of it.
Alright. Let's try to narrow down things at #10.
Top Tier (These Players have no chance in falling to the Stars so let's not waste much time here):
There have been 3 players at the top of the board since Christmas, and while beauty is in the eye of the beholder, it seems that most experts will claim that all 3 of these guys are destined for some level of NHL stardom. Nathan MacKinnon, Seth Jones, and Jonathan Drouin are all thought of as absolute studs. Seth Jones is the franchise defenseman in the group and has a skill set that is absolutely jaw dropping in a league that labels Top D-men as the rarest of commodities. However, it should be noted that it is often difficult to project players on the blue-line as "can't miss" through the years. And in a draft this good, if Jones is only "really good" and you passed on an unbelievable forward like MacKinnon or Drouin, you might be kicking yourself for quite a while. MacKinnon is highly regarded as a center with a fantastic offensive game and seems to have all-around center capabilities. Also, he is 17 years old so many feel that he is simply scratching the surface of his talent. Drouin set juniors on fire this year with a scoring pace that was mind-boggling, and the experts believe he can convert to any of the 3 forward positions you so desire. Both MacKinnon and Drouin are celebrated for their competitive edges and high motor drive, clearly attributes everyone wants. There is one more player that likely belongs in this tier, and might tempt someone (Tampa Bay at #3 or Nashville at #4) to grab him and that is Finnish center Alexsander Barkov. He is another player that excelled at only 17, and he has size at the center position that is prototypical for dominance at 6'3, 209. He is another player that it seems is widely agreed upon as a tick below the top 3, but a tick above the next group.
Next Tier (These are players who are closely grouped together. The good news is that at least one will get to the Stars. The bad news is that even they will only find out on Sunday.)
The next group has a number of European prospects, which of course makes things very fuzzy for evaluation purposes. On the other hand, Jim Nill has worked in Detroit for long enough to know all of their secrets, and if anyone has consistently and properly evaluated European/Russian prospects, it is certainly our friends in Michigan. That group is highlighted by the very impressive winger, Valeri Nichushkin. He is massive and a freight train coming down the wing. Of all of the players in this tier, he would be the one worth trading up to go get if all things were equal. However, he does come with the considerable leverage of being comfortable and well paid in the KHL in Russia. This is an issue and will always be a delicate item to be navigated for any team that selects him. But, he sure looks like on his day he can be the best player on the ice. He has absolutely jaw-dropping highlights that make you wonder how good he can really be. But, he also has the KHL factor which has caused some to drop. Don't count on it, but that is certainly in the back of the Stars' minds as a possibility.
There is also Elias Lindholm, a tenacious 2-way center from Finland who may not have offensive superstar capabilities, but there is a always going to be a place in this world for a Top 6 center who can fill all needs well. Then, you might argue the 7th best player available is Canadian defenseman Darnell Nurse. Nurse is another massive young man, 6'5, who has an edge to his game and can really skate. He is famously the son of a professional CFL football player and nephew (through marriage) of Donovan McNabb. Of all of the defensemen besides Seth Jones, Nurse is the one I am most smitten by. He really looks like he could be a special player and capable of that top pairing spot that you always covet.
So, that is your top 7 by most people's thought process. If any of them make it to #10, you will see dancing at the Stars table, but it isn't very likely. I would be very delighted to walk away with Nichushkin or Nurse and might be tempted to give up a 3rd and #10 to make it happen, but I assume that might not be enough. Also, I don't think the Stars necessarily value Nurse substantially the next tier of defensemen that includes another massive Russian, Nikita Zadorov (6'5, 230) who skates like he is 6'1, but also seems to be a bit docile and gentle. Finnish product Rasmus Ristolainen is thought of as a sure thing with a lower ceiling, but a higher floor as NHL d-man, and then another giant who is just figuring out his game is Samuel Morin who stands at 6'7 and does seem to enjoy the physical side of the game.
There are also 2 more centers who are constantly named in this group and should be on your radar for Sunday. Sean Monahan is the best of this group and has many supporters, despite a less than amazing skating ability. He is another player that might turn heads if he dips to #10. Max Domi, another famous son, has a fantastic offensive game even if his dad didn't, but seems to have that same competitive attitude Tie had.
So, there are 12 names to consider. I don't think the Stars are in on all of them, but that is the landscape for the possible names on their list and the teams in front of them. If someone not on this list breaks into the top 9, such as Curtis Lazar, Hunter Shinkaruk or even Ryan Pulock, figure that the Stars will be happy as names they like will get pushed down further.
So, from there, here is a little video on the Top 5 names for the Stars at #10.
#1 - Valeri Nichushkin
#2 - Darnell Nurse
#3 - Sean Monahan
#4 - Rasmus Ristolainen
#5 - Nikita Zadorov
This is a bit different than last year in that I think the Stars might be more aggressive for the right guy. But, at #10, they cannot predict the dominoes in front of them. I think the top 2 names Nichushkin and Nurse are long gone. That leaves Monahan, Zadorov, and Ristolainen as the choice most likely.
Rather than making a specific pick this year like I did on Faksa last year, I am just going to sit with my order of preference. As unlikely as #1 and #2 are, I think aggressiveness might be the play. Monahan is also doubtful to get there, but they would be very delighted. Then, the fall back are the two defensemen.
But, this time around, all are highly thought of and exciting to add. Very excited about Sunday and the 3-5 premium picks the Stars have in their pocket.
So, Bob, what is your actual prediction here for the 2013 Stars pick?
The guy I want them to get? Darnell Nurse.
The guy who I hope against hope that he drops as a dream scenario? Nichushkin.
The guy I think they likely end up with if they sit at #10? Ristolainen.
That is the best I can do.
Go get em, Mr Nill.
Last year, when doing this breakdown, we actually nailed Radek Faksa as the guy the Stars would get in this very blog entry. I agree that this is a very unlikely scenario for someone who is as poor at predictions as I am (Bruins in 6), but we can't just give up our attempt to hit 2 in a row, right?
The Stars have a number of great spots in this very deep, highly-praised draft on Sunday. They will select at #10, #29, #40, #54, and #68 in the 1st 3 rounds. 5 picks in the Top 68 is highly disproportionate, and makes the Stars one of the top holders of currency in the early going of a very strong draft. Obviously, it is a rare opportunity to either grab the 5 best players at those spots and continue to populate the organization with heralded prospects, or they can gather some of those chips together and move on up for a bolder strike and a player with a more likely upside.
Last year, I thought the Stars were in the 3rd tier of the draft with their pick at #13. This year, I actually would say they are at the tail end of tier #2. It isn't that different, really, except for the idea that it does appear that if they just hold the pick and take whoever falls to them, they should really get an exceptional player. But, of course, that is excruciating as you wait and hope that the apple of your eye does make it to you. If they feel that the 2nd tier does not match their evaluations on a man-for-man basis, then obviously, you strongly consider a leap up the board if you can do it by packaging #10 and either #40, #54, or #68 to shoot up different distances on the board to somewhere between #6 and #8.
The price is heavy for moving up - especially when teams know you have so many picks - but, the reward might be substantial. That said, a new regime might be more inclined to fill in organizational gaps by simply making sure they have selected many kids who can increase the big picture possibilities in a 5-year plan.
The organization has gone through plenty of trouble to accumulate 2 1st rounders and 2 2nd rounders, and now it is time to make the most of it.
Alright. Let's try to narrow down things at #10.
Top Tier (These Players have no chance in falling to the Stars so let's not waste much time here):
There have been 3 players at the top of the board since Christmas, and while beauty is in the eye of the beholder, it seems that most experts will claim that all 3 of these guys are destined for some level of NHL stardom. Nathan MacKinnon, Seth Jones, and Jonathan Drouin are all thought of as absolute studs. Seth Jones is the franchise defenseman in the group and has a skill set that is absolutely jaw dropping in a league that labels Top D-men as the rarest of commodities. However, it should be noted that it is often difficult to project players on the blue-line as "can't miss" through the years. And in a draft this good, if Jones is only "really good" and you passed on an unbelievable forward like MacKinnon or Drouin, you might be kicking yourself for quite a while. MacKinnon is highly regarded as a center with a fantastic offensive game and seems to have all-around center capabilities. Also, he is 17 years old so many feel that he is simply scratching the surface of his talent. Drouin set juniors on fire this year with a scoring pace that was mind-boggling, and the experts believe he can convert to any of the 3 forward positions you so desire. Both MacKinnon and Drouin are celebrated for their competitive edges and high motor drive, clearly attributes everyone wants. There is one more player that likely belongs in this tier, and might tempt someone (Tampa Bay at #3 or Nashville at #4) to grab him and that is Finnish center Alexsander Barkov. He is another player that excelled at only 17, and he has size at the center position that is prototypical for dominance at 6'3, 209. He is another player that it seems is widely agreed upon as a tick below the top 3, but a tick above the next group.
Next Tier (These are players who are closely grouped together. The good news is that at least one will get to the Stars. The bad news is that even they will only find out on Sunday.)
The next group has a number of European prospects, which of course makes things very fuzzy for evaluation purposes. On the other hand, Jim Nill has worked in Detroit for long enough to know all of their secrets, and if anyone has consistently and properly evaluated European/Russian prospects, it is certainly our friends in Michigan. That group is highlighted by the very impressive winger, Valeri Nichushkin. He is massive and a freight train coming down the wing. Of all of the players in this tier, he would be the one worth trading up to go get if all things were equal. However, he does come with the considerable leverage of being comfortable and well paid in the KHL in Russia. This is an issue and will always be a delicate item to be navigated for any team that selects him. But, he sure looks like on his day he can be the best player on the ice. He has absolutely jaw-dropping highlights that make you wonder how good he can really be. But, he also has the KHL factor which has caused some to drop. Don't count on it, but that is certainly in the back of the Stars' minds as a possibility.
There is also Elias Lindholm, a tenacious 2-way center from Finland who may not have offensive superstar capabilities, but there is a always going to be a place in this world for a Top 6 center who can fill all needs well. Then, you might argue the 7th best player available is Canadian defenseman Darnell Nurse. Nurse is another massive young man, 6'5, who has an edge to his game and can really skate. He is famously the son of a professional CFL football player and nephew (through marriage) of Donovan McNabb. Of all of the defensemen besides Seth Jones, Nurse is the one I am most smitten by. He really looks like he could be a special player and capable of that top pairing spot that you always covet.
So, that is your top 7 by most people's thought process. If any of them make it to #10, you will see dancing at the Stars table, but it isn't very likely. I would be very delighted to walk away with Nichushkin or Nurse and might be tempted to give up a 3rd and #10 to make it happen, but I assume that might not be enough. Also, I don't think the Stars necessarily value Nurse substantially the next tier of defensemen that includes another massive Russian, Nikita Zadorov (6'5, 230) who skates like he is 6'1, but also seems to be a bit docile and gentle. Finnish product Rasmus Ristolainen is thought of as a sure thing with a lower ceiling, but a higher floor as NHL d-man, and then another giant who is just figuring out his game is Samuel Morin who stands at 6'7 and does seem to enjoy the physical side of the game.
There are also 2 more centers who are constantly named in this group and should be on your radar for Sunday. Sean Monahan is the best of this group and has many supporters, despite a less than amazing skating ability. He is another player that might turn heads if he dips to #10. Max Domi, another famous son, has a fantastic offensive game even if his dad didn't, but seems to have that same competitive attitude Tie had.
So, there are 12 names to consider. I don't think the Stars are in on all of them, but that is the landscape for the possible names on their list and the teams in front of them. If someone not on this list breaks into the top 9, such as Curtis Lazar, Hunter Shinkaruk or even Ryan Pulock, figure that the Stars will be happy as names they like will get pushed down further.
So, from there, here is a little video on the Top 5 names for the Stars at #10.
#1 - Valeri Nichushkin
#2 - Darnell Nurse
#3 - Sean Monahan
#4 - Rasmus Ristolainen
#5 - Nikita Zadorov
This is a bit different than last year in that I think the Stars might be more aggressive for the right guy. But, at #10, they cannot predict the dominoes in front of them. I think the top 2 names Nichushkin and Nurse are long gone. That leaves Monahan, Zadorov, and Ristolainen as the choice most likely.
Rather than making a specific pick this year like I did on Faksa last year, I am just going to sit with my order of preference. As unlikely as #1 and #2 are, I think aggressiveness might be the play. Monahan is also doubtful to get there, but they would be very delighted. Then, the fall back are the two defensemen.
But, this time around, all are highly thought of and exciting to add. Very excited about Sunday and the 3-5 premium picks the Stars have in their pocket.
So, Bob, what is your actual prediction here for the 2013 Stars pick?
The guy I want them to get? Darnell Nurse.
The guy who I hope against hope that he drops as a dream scenario? Nichushkin.
The guy I think they likely end up with if they sit at #10? Ristolainen.
That is the best I can do.
Go get em, Mr Nill.
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
Bag of Pucks - June 25
Last night, the Chicago Blackhawks won their 2nd Stanley Cup in 4 years (and in 52 years) in Boston in a fantastic conclusion to a playoffs that really delivered all the way to the Finals with 2 original 6 franchises slugging it out to the end. Other than not getting a Game 7 on Wednesday night, I am not sure what more could have been asked by these terrific playoffs this season and this feeling that the league is doing very well as a product of great sporting entertainment.
That said, watching other teams participate in the playoffs will always feel just a little bit off. Sure, it is a fun few months, and sure, it feel intense from the outside, but there is very little exhaustion, exhilaration, and ultimate elation if you don't have a horse in the race.
There is no question that the absence of the Dallas Stars in the playoffs is just enough to send you back into the malaise of wondering just how far away our hometown franchise is from ever returning to the glory of the good ol' days. And when such discussions come up, it is easy to feel like those days are impossible to attain again. 5 years and counting.
And that is what faces this organization that seems determined to break out of the cycle that they are mired in.
Since we last talked on these topics, the Stars have hired a respected and experienced General Manager in Jim Nill from Detroit. His credentials and respect level in the league are through the roof and he is regarded as just the guy who would have the overall vision to make this work.
Nill then conducted his own lengthy and thorough coaching search, eventually ending up with a new Head Coach in the form of Lindy Ruff, a man who is equally respected and experienced with a tenure in Buffalo that only Barry Trotz can look down upon in the modern NHL. So, you have 2 guys who had not been in their same capacities in their same franchises since before the Dallas Stars acquired Brett Hull, are now combining their track records and attempting to continue to build this thing back up.
I think those 2 moves in particular should be enough to show us that the Stars are determined to figure this out, thanks to a new owner in Tom Gaglardi who seems tired of mediocrity already. I am a big fan of Joe Nieuwendyk and was just starting to really admire Glen Gulatzan for their positive characteristics, but it is nearly impossible to shoot holes in the idea of 2 stable, committed, and successful men working together at the two most important spots in the hockey operations to figure this out.
Now, before we get carried away in this group's ability to convert everything into chicken salad overnight, we should remember that the Blackhawks and Bruins are not entirely in the spots they were last night because of fantastic management. That helps, but it also helps to have Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews up front, with Duncan Keith behind them in Chicago - you know, with Marion Hossa, Patrick Sharp, Brent Seabrook, and on and on and on filling in the gaps. In Boston, Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic, and a host of parts that fit perfectly put the Bruins in a spot where they have won a Cup, lost another, and are in the hunt each year. That isn't because the suits have bigger brains than the competition. It is because their building took long years and wrong turns and finally they hit on something that could compete for it all.
And that requires elite talent at the top. Something the Stars will ultimately need to hit on. Ruff and Nill cannot win with a collection of ordinary talent. They will need to find pieces that seem to be missing right now - players who are clear as the best the hockey world has to offer. Like just about any sport, those teams, like the Blackhawks who can collect 3 of the top 20 players in the league or 6 of the top 75 or whatever disproportionate stack of dominant players to place together in this salary capped environment that has 30 franchises will have the distinct advantage.
Looking at the Stars cupboards, they have a wonderful collection of players that seem to be talented and capable of playing in the NHL between the ages of 18-24. They seem rather stacked in "solid" NHL talent and youth, thanks to the way the Nieuwendyk regime was able to flip assets for futures in the last two years.
But, is there "elite" talent here? Is there a Toews or a Kane or a Hossa or a Keith?
I believe Jamie Benn has a chance to be that player and on many nights is already there.
What else? I am still holding out hope that Jamie Oleksiak can be a dominant top pairing defensemen when he has had enough time in the oven. Brenden Dillon took such strides these last 3 years that I wonder if we are foolish to act like we know his ceiling. Brett Ritchie has been described as a player with fantastic upside and there are other kids in the system that could be better than "solid". But, as it stands, the bin marked "solid" appears to be full and in great shape. But, the bin that allows a team to compete for Cups is marked "elite" and while there might be some potential in that bin, for the most part it is where much of the league sits normally - close to empty.
They know this. They know that they have lots of 6's and 7's, but they need a 9 or a 10 to make this thing really sing. Of course, that is like a football team saying that they are a Tom Brady away from being a great team. That is both obvious and ridiculous - so is pretty much everyone. But, it is often true.
Elite talent generally requires that you pick #1 or #2 or certainly in the Top 5 picks of a draft to get someone like that. In Chicago's case, Kane was #1, Toews was #3 overall. Like Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, and many of the best of the best, they are all gone very early at the top of the draft. If you never pick up top, then, like many other sports, you have to either get lucky or try to win with a collection of solid pieces, but never have the very best players in the game. In can be done, but it surely is not very likely.
Which leaves the Stars with some interesting questions in a year where they have lots of money, lots of picks, and lots of holes on their squad. Do they combine these resources to go for a bold strike up the draft board?
The 2013 NHL Draft looks really strong. The Stars should have some great choices at #10 and a few I am very excited about. However, the 3 "elite" talents at the top of the board are, as you would expect, going to be gone in before pick #4.
So, do they attempt to give up multiple picks to shoot up the board? That doesn't really seem like Nill's style, but then, I do concede that I don't really know his style very well. And that is the wildcard of this most important offseason.
We should expect that they are still short of centers and top-pairing defensemen. But, they are also short of elite, and therefore, elite potential should trump any short term needs - thus giving the best player available.
I have names and a stacked board that I will try to get out later in the week for pick #10, but I think the bigger question remains on whether they are willing to shoot up the board or to use #10 to trade for a veteran who could put them right in the playoff mix for next season.
Sergei Gonchar is an interesting move that seems to indicate that others on the blue-line might be on their way out in a summer that could have a few aggressive trades ahead. That puts the entire league in play and makes guessing seem even more impossible. The Stars have trade chips to use and the league is their canvas to paint their new vision.
They have new men in charge, a new color scheme that is growing on me, and a team that has a group that can grow together. They have no contracts that are millstones nor do they have any other resources that must be moved out who are blocking kids. They have an almost alarmingly blank slate and an eager bunch who want to succeed.
I know it is late June and the Stars haven't been in the playoffs since 2008. But, I am really excited about the next 2 weeks of moves and the season that lies ahead.
Like Charlie Brown running to a ball that Lucy holds, I am optimistic that this crew can accomplish the goals that we all have for them, if we give them a little time to make it all happen.
That said, watching other teams participate in the playoffs will always feel just a little bit off. Sure, it is a fun few months, and sure, it feel intense from the outside, but there is very little exhaustion, exhilaration, and ultimate elation if you don't have a horse in the race.
There is no question that the absence of the Dallas Stars in the playoffs is just enough to send you back into the malaise of wondering just how far away our hometown franchise is from ever returning to the glory of the good ol' days. And when such discussions come up, it is easy to feel like those days are impossible to attain again. 5 years and counting.
And that is what faces this organization that seems determined to break out of the cycle that they are mired in.
Since we last talked on these topics, the Stars have hired a respected and experienced General Manager in Jim Nill from Detroit. His credentials and respect level in the league are through the roof and he is regarded as just the guy who would have the overall vision to make this work.
Nill then conducted his own lengthy and thorough coaching search, eventually ending up with a new Head Coach in the form of Lindy Ruff, a man who is equally respected and experienced with a tenure in Buffalo that only Barry Trotz can look down upon in the modern NHL. So, you have 2 guys who had not been in their same capacities in their same franchises since before the Dallas Stars acquired Brett Hull, are now combining their track records and attempting to continue to build this thing back up.
I think those 2 moves in particular should be enough to show us that the Stars are determined to figure this out, thanks to a new owner in Tom Gaglardi who seems tired of mediocrity already. I am a big fan of Joe Nieuwendyk and was just starting to really admire Glen Gulatzan for their positive characteristics, but it is nearly impossible to shoot holes in the idea of 2 stable, committed, and successful men working together at the two most important spots in the hockey operations to figure this out.
Now, before we get carried away in this group's ability to convert everything into chicken salad overnight, we should remember that the Blackhawks and Bruins are not entirely in the spots they were last night because of fantastic management. That helps, but it also helps to have Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews up front, with Duncan Keith behind them in Chicago - you know, with Marion Hossa, Patrick Sharp, Brent Seabrook, and on and on and on filling in the gaps. In Boston, Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic, and a host of parts that fit perfectly put the Bruins in a spot where they have won a Cup, lost another, and are in the hunt each year. That isn't because the suits have bigger brains than the competition. It is because their building took long years and wrong turns and finally they hit on something that could compete for it all.
And that requires elite talent at the top. Something the Stars will ultimately need to hit on. Ruff and Nill cannot win with a collection of ordinary talent. They will need to find pieces that seem to be missing right now - players who are clear as the best the hockey world has to offer. Like just about any sport, those teams, like the Blackhawks who can collect 3 of the top 20 players in the league or 6 of the top 75 or whatever disproportionate stack of dominant players to place together in this salary capped environment that has 30 franchises will have the distinct advantage.
Looking at the Stars cupboards, they have a wonderful collection of players that seem to be talented and capable of playing in the NHL between the ages of 18-24. They seem rather stacked in "solid" NHL talent and youth, thanks to the way the Nieuwendyk regime was able to flip assets for futures in the last two years.
But, is there "elite" talent here? Is there a Toews or a Kane or a Hossa or a Keith?
I believe Jamie Benn has a chance to be that player and on many nights is already there.
What else? I am still holding out hope that Jamie Oleksiak can be a dominant top pairing defensemen when he has had enough time in the oven. Brenden Dillon took such strides these last 3 years that I wonder if we are foolish to act like we know his ceiling. Brett Ritchie has been described as a player with fantastic upside and there are other kids in the system that could be better than "solid". But, as it stands, the bin marked "solid" appears to be full and in great shape. But, the bin that allows a team to compete for Cups is marked "elite" and while there might be some potential in that bin, for the most part it is where much of the league sits normally - close to empty.
They know this. They know that they have lots of 6's and 7's, but they need a 9 or a 10 to make this thing really sing. Of course, that is like a football team saying that they are a Tom Brady away from being a great team. That is both obvious and ridiculous - so is pretty much everyone. But, it is often true.
Elite talent generally requires that you pick #1 or #2 or certainly in the Top 5 picks of a draft to get someone like that. In Chicago's case, Kane was #1, Toews was #3 overall. Like Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, and many of the best of the best, they are all gone very early at the top of the draft. If you never pick up top, then, like many other sports, you have to either get lucky or try to win with a collection of solid pieces, but never have the very best players in the game. In can be done, but it surely is not very likely.
Which leaves the Stars with some interesting questions in a year where they have lots of money, lots of picks, and lots of holes on their squad. Do they combine these resources to go for a bold strike up the draft board?
The 2013 NHL Draft looks really strong. The Stars should have some great choices at #10 and a few I am very excited about. However, the 3 "elite" talents at the top of the board are, as you would expect, going to be gone in before pick #4.
So, do they attempt to give up multiple picks to shoot up the board? That doesn't really seem like Nill's style, but then, I do concede that I don't really know his style very well. And that is the wildcard of this most important offseason.
We should expect that they are still short of centers and top-pairing defensemen. But, they are also short of elite, and therefore, elite potential should trump any short term needs - thus giving the best player available.
I have names and a stacked board that I will try to get out later in the week for pick #10, but I think the bigger question remains on whether they are willing to shoot up the board or to use #10 to trade for a veteran who could put them right in the playoff mix for next season.
Sergei Gonchar is an interesting move that seems to indicate that others on the blue-line might be on their way out in a summer that could have a few aggressive trades ahead. That puts the entire league in play and makes guessing seem even more impossible. The Stars have trade chips to use and the league is their canvas to paint their new vision.
They have new men in charge, a new color scheme that is growing on me, and a team that has a group that can grow together. They have no contracts that are millstones nor do they have any other resources that must be moved out who are blocking kids. They have an almost alarmingly blank slate and an eager bunch who want to succeed.
I know it is late June and the Stars haven't been in the playoffs since 2008. But, I am really excited about the next 2 weeks of moves and the season that lies ahead.
Like Charlie Brown running to a ball that Lucy holds, I am optimistic that this crew can accomplish the goals that we all have for them, if we give them a little time to make it all happen.
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Bag of Pucks - April 30 - Jim Nill Edition
It was a bizarre night on Saturday evening when the Stars were playing out the string against Detroit in an arena full of red and equally of defeat for anyone who loves hockey in Dallas.
For what seems like the umpteenth time in a row, the Stars fight and claw and come up short. Actually, it was only the 5th season in a row, but after they spoiled us by showing success virtually anytime they wanted in the first 15 years in town, the Dallas Stars have hit a dead end. Again. And Again.
Trying to figure out where the Stars took a wrong turn after their fantastic run in the 2008 playoffs, there are certainly plenty of events that strung together in succession. Was it the retirement of Sergei Zubov and 2 other significant defensemen at the same time? Was it the ill-advised signing of Sean Avery that summer when most of the league wouldn't touch him? Was it the firing of Dave Tippett when he had only missed the playoffs one time in his six seasons in Dallas (you know, the season you gave him Sean Avery in the middle of his room and took Zubov away)? Was it the bankruptcy and embarrassing manner in which Tom Hicks left the franchise? Was it cranking the payroll back significantly year after year (from over $70m to down to the bare minimum the league allows)? Was it firing Doug Armstrong in the first place?
We could go on. But, the point is this thing was broken down to where whoever took the job over was going to have to pitch a perfect game to get out of that mess. And even that might not have been enough.
So, when Joe Nieuwendyk was dismissed on Saturday Night in a way that was a bit unfortunate (it appears he found out the same way we did, via reporters in Canada), it struck me as less than a fair way to summarize his 4 years here in Dallas.
Now, in the interest of being open, I am a big Joe Nieuwendyk supporter because of the way he conducts his business going back to the first time I met him upon coming to Dallas in 1998. He has always been 100% class and seemed perfect for this type of position when he was done playing. He inherited a chance at being a general manager in the NHL, but was certainly not lucky enough to inherit one where the odds were stacked in his favor.
He made some major mis-steps along the way, but also some significant positive moves. The fans began to associate him with the dire times inside the organization which seems incredibly misdirected, but that is the nature of the beast. The owner makes a major mess of everything and then shoves his representatives out to deal with the angry public. They do the best they can, because they are lucky enough to have a high ranking spot in the NHL, knowing full well that they are on borrowed time because the entire thing was broken and not set for success with 1st class organizations that they must compete with.
Nieuwendyk's first decision might have been the one that bit him the most, looking back, when he fired Tippett immediately to get his guy in as coach. Let's be honest, watching the duo of Armstrong and Tippett find success in their very next gigs after leaving Dallas doesn't help any of us feel better about how this thing has gone. Both coaches that Nieuwendyk hired looked the part as reasonable hires, but the fact that the results never were found doesn't help, either.
The trades have been gone over and for every Goligoski complaint, there should be an equally loud Lehtonen cheer, but it seldom seems that happens. The infusion of young talent that has been assembled suggests that Joe helped build the next wave of talent that is coming through the system and that will be reaped by his successor. Time will tell the quality and there are some first round pick decisions that I certainly continue to 2nd guess, but overall, this thing is in way better shape than Nieuwendyk found it.
But, the biggest thing I would say about his run is that we still don't know how he would do as a general manager with a full deck of cards. His payroll rankings when he was in charge were right there with the worst in the league and therefore to expect top notch results that compare to Bob Gainey and Doug Armstrong when they always had Top 5 payrolls and he had Bottom 5 payrolls is just flat-out ridiculous and unfair.
His biggest signing in free agency? Would you believe the small signing of Ray Whitney last summer for 2 years/$9 million (Remember: Brett Hull had $15.5 million to give Sean Avery and traded for the giant Brad Richards deal before that)? As a general manager in the NHL, to never have a free agent signing or acquisition that valued over that is incredible and uncommon. To judge his work with that millstone around his neck is silly. Now, yes, he did make the big signings of Goligoski, Benn, Lehtonen, and others inside the organization (many times to just get to the cap floor, mind you), but when this team need additions, it was always in the bargain bin.
So, they had no choice but to find bargains and turn refuse into chicken salad whenever possible. Sometimes, it worked well as guys like Brenden Dillon get me very excited, but other times you are led to believe that Joe will be hard pressed to have the odds stacked more against him in his next gig.
It was destined to fail, regardless of the GM. In a sense, Armstrong is lucky he found a new home in St Louis where they were serious about building a contender.
But, thankfully, Tom Hicks was forced out of business. He had done enough damage to erase the good he helped create a decade earlier. And after the NHL ran the Stars for a short spell, enter Tom Gaglardi. At first, his best characteristic was that he was not the old guy. Slowly, we are seeing what he has on his list of objectives, and it does seem to include a thirst to build a winner.
Talk is cheap, though, and I always said we should give him a fair chance, but actions will always speak louder than words. Gaglardi has been in power for 18 months and although we have seen small signs of determined actions to make things right on the ice, it has been slow and calculated to get through the work stoppage and moving out assets that were expiring and making room for the kids.
He did not make changes on the hockey side until Saturday when he decided Joe and surely his hire at coach, Glen Gulatzan were done.
Now, to hear it told, there is some confusion about whether or not this move was made because Jim Nill was available or it the Stars were changing GM no matter who the successor was. In the end, that hardly matters, save for the history telling, but the since the entire league is responding to this hire with plaudits, it looks like they have quite a guy in the big chair here.
Pierre LeBrun from ESPN wrote about assistant general managers who were ready for the GM job back in February and listed Nill as his #1 guy:
I am fired up because a guy like Nill was only leaving Detroit if the move was perfect. And I assume to do that he was able to secure assurances from Gaglardi and Jim Lites that if he comes here, he will be given the resources to compete - and not just for the playoffs, but ultimately for a Cup.
Clearly, hiring someone from a top organization makes sense, and sometimes it works like when Oklahoma City hired Sam Presti from the San Antonio Spurs, and sometimes it doesn't like when the Cavaliers hired Danny Ferry from the Spurs.
But, Nill comes with confidence, experience, and hopefully the eye for talent that everyone credits him with from many days with Ken Holland and Jim Devellano who along with Scotty Bowman made Detroit into what it is today. They are the gold standard in hockey in the last 2 decades, so I have no problem stealing from the enemy who does it right.
He has a pretty solid youth system, a load of picks, and hopefully a stack of cash to make this thing happen. He also has a 5-year deal, so we should assume he will play the long game in fixing, which means no reckless plays early just because he has money. He will take his time and do what he needs to do to make sure this downturn in hockey ends with this hire.
As for Nieuwendyk, I know he will bounce back. I understand fans being mad at someone, but the venom directed at him is just not overly reasonable given what he had to work with. He inherited a bad situation and built a brighter future. Did he deserve another year? While I thought so, I also am fine with Gaglardi making a move if he things he needed a fresh start with his guys before he invests heavily in the future.
But, make no mistake: It will take heavy investment from the owner to win a Cup and to fill this arena again. The fans were misled for many years about whether this team was serious about winning or not, and ownership did not always practice what they preached. Fine. Water under the bridge.
As far as I am concerned, Gaglardi and Nill have a fresh start and the benefit of the doubt from me. As for many of you, I am sure they are going to have to win you back. And winning on the ice is the only way to do that.
For what seems like the umpteenth time in a row, the Stars fight and claw and come up short. Actually, it was only the 5th season in a row, but after they spoiled us by showing success virtually anytime they wanted in the first 15 years in town, the Dallas Stars have hit a dead end. Again. And Again.
Trying to figure out where the Stars took a wrong turn after their fantastic run in the 2008 playoffs, there are certainly plenty of events that strung together in succession. Was it the retirement of Sergei Zubov and 2 other significant defensemen at the same time? Was it the ill-advised signing of Sean Avery that summer when most of the league wouldn't touch him? Was it the firing of Dave Tippett when he had only missed the playoffs one time in his six seasons in Dallas (you know, the season you gave him Sean Avery in the middle of his room and took Zubov away)? Was it the bankruptcy and embarrassing manner in which Tom Hicks left the franchise? Was it cranking the payroll back significantly year after year (from over $70m to down to the bare minimum the league allows)? Was it firing Doug Armstrong in the first place?
We could go on. But, the point is this thing was broken down to where whoever took the job over was going to have to pitch a perfect game to get out of that mess. And even that might not have been enough.
So, when Joe Nieuwendyk was dismissed on Saturday Night in a way that was a bit unfortunate (it appears he found out the same way we did, via reporters in Canada), it struck me as less than a fair way to summarize his 4 years here in Dallas.
Now, in the interest of being open, I am a big Joe Nieuwendyk supporter because of the way he conducts his business going back to the first time I met him upon coming to Dallas in 1998. He has always been 100% class and seemed perfect for this type of position when he was done playing. He inherited a chance at being a general manager in the NHL, but was certainly not lucky enough to inherit one where the odds were stacked in his favor.
He made some major mis-steps along the way, but also some significant positive moves. The fans began to associate him with the dire times inside the organization which seems incredibly misdirected, but that is the nature of the beast. The owner makes a major mess of everything and then shoves his representatives out to deal with the angry public. They do the best they can, because they are lucky enough to have a high ranking spot in the NHL, knowing full well that they are on borrowed time because the entire thing was broken and not set for success with 1st class organizations that they must compete with.
Nieuwendyk's first decision might have been the one that bit him the most, looking back, when he fired Tippett immediately to get his guy in as coach. Let's be honest, watching the duo of Armstrong and Tippett find success in their very next gigs after leaving Dallas doesn't help any of us feel better about how this thing has gone. Both coaches that Nieuwendyk hired looked the part as reasonable hires, but the fact that the results never were found doesn't help, either.
The trades have been gone over and for every Goligoski complaint, there should be an equally loud Lehtonen cheer, but it seldom seems that happens. The infusion of young talent that has been assembled suggests that Joe helped build the next wave of talent that is coming through the system and that will be reaped by his successor. Time will tell the quality and there are some first round pick decisions that I certainly continue to 2nd guess, but overall, this thing is in way better shape than Nieuwendyk found it.
But, the biggest thing I would say about his run is that we still don't know how he would do as a general manager with a full deck of cards. His payroll rankings when he was in charge were right there with the worst in the league and therefore to expect top notch results that compare to Bob Gainey and Doug Armstrong when they always had Top 5 payrolls and he had Bottom 5 payrolls is just flat-out ridiculous and unfair.
His biggest signing in free agency? Would you believe the small signing of Ray Whitney last summer for 2 years/$9 million (Remember: Brett Hull had $15.5 million to give Sean Avery and traded for the giant Brad Richards deal before that)? As a general manager in the NHL, to never have a free agent signing or acquisition that valued over that is incredible and uncommon. To judge his work with that millstone around his neck is silly. Now, yes, he did make the big signings of Goligoski, Benn, Lehtonen, and others inside the organization (many times to just get to the cap floor, mind you), but when this team need additions, it was always in the bargain bin.
So, they had no choice but to find bargains and turn refuse into chicken salad whenever possible. Sometimes, it worked well as guys like Brenden Dillon get me very excited, but other times you are led to believe that Joe will be hard pressed to have the odds stacked more against him in his next gig.
It was destined to fail, regardless of the GM. In a sense, Armstrong is lucky he found a new home in St Louis where they were serious about building a contender.
But, thankfully, Tom Hicks was forced out of business. He had done enough damage to erase the good he helped create a decade earlier. And after the NHL ran the Stars for a short spell, enter Tom Gaglardi. At first, his best characteristic was that he was not the old guy. Slowly, we are seeing what he has on his list of objectives, and it does seem to include a thirst to build a winner.
Talk is cheap, though, and I always said we should give him a fair chance, but actions will always speak louder than words. Gaglardi has been in power for 18 months and although we have seen small signs of determined actions to make things right on the ice, it has been slow and calculated to get through the work stoppage and moving out assets that were expiring and making room for the kids.
He did not make changes on the hockey side until Saturday when he decided Joe and surely his hire at coach, Glen Gulatzan were done.
Now, to hear it told, there is some confusion about whether or not this move was made because Jim Nill was available or it the Stars were changing GM no matter who the successor was. In the end, that hardly matters, save for the history telling, but the since the entire league is responding to this hire with plaudits, it looks like they have quite a guy in the big chair here.
Pierre LeBrun from ESPN wrote about assistant general managers who were ready for the GM job back in February and listed Nill as his #1 guy:
1. Jim Nill, Detroit Red Wings: Now in his 15th season as assistant GM in Detroit, he has been GM material for a long time. And it just so happens that his contract will soon begin to present itself with annual six-week "out windows" when he can entertain GM offers from other teams, a source told ESPN.com. The first window comes this summer. With four Stanley Cup rings and a long list of late-draft gems on his resume, Nill is a top-notch candidate in waiting. It would have to be the right fit for him to leave Detroit, where he's happy and loyal to the Ilitch family, but it's a possibility. You can't go wrong if you name Nill as your GM. He'd be a superstar hire.That is an amazing endorsement and should make everyone excited. But, maybe for different reasons than might be readily obvious.
I am fired up because a guy like Nill was only leaving Detroit if the move was perfect. And I assume to do that he was able to secure assurances from Gaglardi and Jim Lites that if he comes here, he will be given the resources to compete - and not just for the playoffs, but ultimately for a Cup.
Clearly, hiring someone from a top organization makes sense, and sometimes it works like when Oklahoma City hired Sam Presti from the San Antonio Spurs, and sometimes it doesn't like when the Cavaliers hired Danny Ferry from the Spurs.
But, Nill comes with confidence, experience, and hopefully the eye for talent that everyone credits him with from many days with Ken Holland and Jim Devellano who along with Scotty Bowman made Detroit into what it is today. They are the gold standard in hockey in the last 2 decades, so I have no problem stealing from the enemy who does it right.
He has a pretty solid youth system, a load of picks, and hopefully a stack of cash to make this thing happen. He also has a 5-year deal, so we should assume he will play the long game in fixing, which means no reckless plays early just because he has money. He will take his time and do what he needs to do to make sure this downturn in hockey ends with this hire.
As for Nieuwendyk, I know he will bounce back. I understand fans being mad at someone, but the venom directed at him is just not overly reasonable given what he had to work with. He inherited a bad situation and built a brighter future. Did he deserve another year? While I thought so, I also am fine with Gaglardi making a move if he things he needed a fresh start with his guys before he invests heavily in the future.
But, make no mistake: It will take heavy investment from the owner to win a Cup and to fill this arena again. The fans were misled for many years about whether this team was serious about winning or not, and ownership did not always practice what they preached. Fine. Water under the bridge.
As far as I am concerned, Gaglardi and Nill have a fresh start and the benefit of the doubt from me. As for many of you, I am sure they are going to have to win you back. And winning on the ice is the only way to do that.
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