Weekend Cowboys Riffing – Answering Your Cowboys Queries

https://theathletic.com/284549/2018/03/22/weekend-cowboys-riffing-answering-your-cowboys-queries/

DMN - Mailbag Sept 30

So, you are three games into your season at 2-1, favored in Game #4, and life is great because your rookie class is already contributing in several spots! It's very rare around here to have so many things falling properly.

Unfortunately, we can't stop there, can we? Ominous storm clouds are rolling in. NFL success requires keeping the key players on your roster healthy and part of your workforce.  Every team will sustain injuries. But the randomization of these injuries seems to control standings by the end of the year.  

So, here we are, on the final day of September, and the Cowboys do not feel good about their three most pricey assets:  Tony Romo's health never seems consistent, Dez Bryant has a hairline fracture in his knee, and Tyron Smith's back keeps locking up. Our friends at Spotrac have a full page on the Cowboys' investments, and the names at the top verify the poor injury fortune so far.

It certainly isn't an exact science, but in the case of the Cowboys, it sure looks close. That is, in July, you ask me "Who are the three guys you must keep healthy in 2016?" I am likely saying Romo, Bryant, and Tyron. Maybe Sean Lee gets in there, too. But, man.  

DMN Cowboys Mailbag - Aug 12

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2016/08/12/sturms-weekly-cowboys-mailbag-time-play-football-game

A little bit of history will be made tomorrow night at the L.A. Coliseum, but for the most part the game will likely measure up against other preseason openers around here -- which means it won't take much more than 30 minutes for you to wonder why you were so excited to see a preseason football game.

The Cowboys seldom risk a player in the preseason -- especially the opener -- so don't expect to see any of Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Tyron Smith or Ezekiel Elliott in the game. That will ramp up as the month goes on, but on Saturday, we can finally see Jameill Showers connect with Andy Jones and wonder if either will make the squad. It's NFL football, but we still must wait another month for the good stuff.

Meanwhile, let's answer your questions and discuss whatever is on your mind right here, right now:

Q: With current state of defense can it really be said that Cowboys are best team in NFC East?

For me, I think the Cowboys will be able to compete for this division. We should understand that this is likely the weakest division in the NFC and the margins are very tight. Yes, Dallas seems to have a collection of what could be the finest offense in a league where that decides things in the regular season quite a bit. Washington is much better than I think people believe (especially now having added Josh Norman, as well as an interesting draft class) and New York has spent a ton to close the gap. Philadelphia is almost certainly going to be out of the mix, but you know how August predictions can go sometimes. The Cowboys' defense is not great and just like the offense, a single injury in the wrong place can really destroy things. That said, I do think that this defense can make the case for average. If they can play average defense, and I think they can, then this offense can put them in the range of 10 wins. It is all about the takeaways, and given that they were up at 31 in 2014 and 11 in 2015, I am going to play the average in 2016 and assume they can split the difference at about 21. That would make them incredibly more competitive.

Q: What are the signs of encouragement fans should look for in the first preseason game?

Well, it is the first preseason game, so relax your bar a bit. The Rams will be trying to impress the world in their L.A. debut and the Cowboys will be hiding their best players on the sidelines. But, it is fair to say you would like to see some flashes from the young players who need to impress. Byron Jones at safety, David Irving at defensive end, and hopefully a major step forward from Brice Butler and types like him who need to grab a roster spot by the scruff of the neck. I have a list of things I am looking for, but that will mostly start with seeing these draft picks -- unfortunately, Zeke, Jaylon Smith (of course) and Maliek Collins won't be out there. So instead, we want to see Charles Tapper, Dak Prescott, Anthony Brown, Kavon Frazier, Darius Jackson and maybe even a little from Rico Gathers. Obviously, Andy Jones is also in that mix and keep an eye on defensive tackle Rodney Coe. I don't know what you are going to see as far as massive signs of encouragement. Let's just look for kids to make impressions. It is the first preseason game. Just get through it.

Q: What's your best guess on how the Leary situation plays out?

That he is kept all season as an insurance policy and that there is a decent chance he is forced to play and maybe play a lot. The Cowboys have had uncommon health on their offensive line in these past few years and that won't continue forever. Most teams have to find a sixth and seventh offensive lineman to play a lot during seasons and the Cowboys likely will have their chance at some point.

Q: How risky is it for the Cowboys to wait this long before signing a vet QB to back up Romo? Seems like people like Prescott and Showers but haven't seen anyone say they are ready to get snaps in an actual game

I think this is where we look at these first two preseason games and watch Jameill Showers closely. I hope you read the piece I wrote about him this week and the conflict of how he plays and what Jason Garrett looks for in a backup. I think he has an opportunity here, but we should not assume the leash is long. If Showers plays well, he may keep getting chances. If his composite results of the first few games are not good, then the shopping for a vet will commence in earnest. I like him plenty, but it may not be a great fit. As for Prescott, I still believe the plan is to keep him away from the field all year, and therefore they will use this preseason as a taste for him. But, then they will relegate him to third string all year if they can.

Q: On a scale of 1-10 how worried should fans be about Zeke's injury?

I would give it a 1. Not at all. This is preseason precaution. They plan on giving him 300 touches, I am sure. It is a long year. Pace yourself.

Q: Have you seen anything encouraging from the Cowboys' pass rush in training camp?

Sure. But, we have to proceed with the understanding that their best pass rusher, by a good margin, is DeMarcus Lawrence. He won't be back until October because of his suspension. But, if you read my breakdown of David Irving, you know what I think of him. I think Tyrone Crawford will be back this year. I think Benson Mayowa will be very good on the edge. I think Maliek Collins can be solid. This team won't be powerless and Rod may use more linebacker pressure this year. Look for some more A-gap pressure up the middle from Sean Lee and friends this year. We have seen glimpses of that in Oxnard, for sure.

Q: Position we are pleasantly surprised by, and position we are surprisingly disappointed by at year's end? I'll hang up and listen

Well, I bet that D-line might get better reviews than they are getting previews. So let me go with them. I really think Lawrence will be a beast when he gets there and I don't understand how little love Cedric Thornton is getting right now. He will make a real difference.

On the down side, I am worried about wide receiver. I am fine with Dez and Cole Beasley, of course. Terrance Williams is in a contract year and he needs to have a big one. Other than that, I don't see much of anything. They need some kids to emerge. Devin Street, Brice Butler and friends all need to decide who is going to be an NFL contributor in a hurry. They need to demonstrate hands, separation and dependability with the quarterback. And it needs to happen quickly.

Q: Which current RB do you see gone when Dunbar returns? Morris? DMac, Jackson, Smith?

McFadden. I am not sure he makes the 53 without Dunbar, to be honest. They need running back help that can play special teams. That is Jackson and even Morris. McFadden is not a great fit here, despite his fine 2015.

Q: Does Tapper start game 1?

I highly doubt it. He has a chance to be a contributor, but if he is starting Game 1, then we have some real issues with others. If I were to guess the opening-day front four, give me Tyrone Crawford and Cedric Thornton inside with David Irving and Jack Crawford outside. Not great, but dependable veterans and decent depth behind them. Tapper should be part of that.

Q:  Which totally fixable issue that the Cowboys failed to address will destroy their season this year?

That seems a bit of a pessimistic viewpoint, but the totally fixable issues that were not addressed would have to be going to get a backup quarterback you felt great about, continuing to depend upon Rolando McClain in the middle of your defense when he has proven to you repeatedly that he cannot be depended upon, and over-investing in a running back when that wasn't a weakness on the team -- on any level -- when the Nos. 4 and 34 picks could have both been placed on instant blue-chip starters on your defense for Day 1. In fact, Jacksonville picked behind you in each round and took Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack -- two players who will start for them in Week 1 and will add top talent to their defense (we assume).

That said, I have never been a general manager and they didn't ask me to be. But you did!

Enjoy football. It is back. Sort of. And we can discuss the events of Saturday night with a Monday morning dissection.

Cowboys Mailbag - June 3

It is Friday, so as we reach the end of my work year of Cowboys writing (the new year begins in late July in Oxnard), let me offer you one last mailbag before I shut it down for about 7 weeks.

They will still offer you various things from the last year for you to read again (or for the first time), so hopefully we won't be too far apart for long:

Q: Let's say the offense is what we hope it is with Zeke, healthy Romo and Bryant and it averages 30+ points a game. Let's also say the defense is an average defense. That should mean there should be some blow outs during the season. Which QB (Moore or Prescott) should get those garbage time snaps since you are going to want to get Romo out as soon as you can?

This is a fantastic scenario that everyone can get behind.  The team just absolutely kills everyone in 2016, so let's sort through who will be mopping up, right?  I love your optimism.  OK, let's explore this idea and I will say that it is absolutely going to be a job for Kellen Moore.  I don't think he is the most complete and capable QB ever seen, but he should be perfect for this job.  Dak Prescott's #1 job will be to figure out what he can do in the NFL, wow us in the 4th Quarter of preseason games, get hazed as all rookie QBs do, and basically learn and learn some more.  He shouldn't be asked to be active on gameday, nor should he be asked to play a single snap.  If the idea is to get Prescott ready to be the #2 by 2017, then this year should be treated as a training red shirt year.  Nothing more.  Give the mop to Kellen Moore and pray neither of them have to start a single game.

Q: Who would you say has been the most underrated player for the Cowboys over the last few seasons?

Well, that is a tough question because "underrated" can mean many things.  So, underrated in the media?  Well, Brandon Carr shows up for 1,000 snaps a year and hardly gets burned for big stakes.  People want more and should expect more for $50 million, but I do think it is comical to demand he is cut on blogs and newspapers.  Underrated in the public?  Travis Frederick is amazing and I don't see many jerseys out there because centers don't sell jerseys.  Underrated by the coaching staff?  I wish I knew what James Hanna had to do to get more chances and snaps.  Underrated by the rest of the league?  Hmmmm.  Well, let's say Tyrone Crawford.  But, obviously, 2014 was his great year.  2015 must be better.  

Q: Do you think Rod Marinelli is going to have to change some things up in the first four games scheme-wise with so many dudes out?

Not really.  That is the thing about Rod.  He isn't worried about the guys he has.  He is worried about everyone fulfilling their obligation.  He will trust those he has and not "baby" anyone.  He demands the most of his players but actually enjoys people saying his guys aren't good enough.  Pound for pound, there aren't many I would rather have than Rod Marinelli.  The guy is certainly a great defensive mind who trusts his experience.  

Q: Biggest concern for Zeke going forward?

The same concern for every RB that plays in the NFL.  That his body is shown mercy from the collisions that shorten careers and zap explosiveness.  Most RBs who are drafted are not given a 2nd contract by the team that drafts them because they view RBs as disposable and high-risk.  The Cowboys obviously disagree (even though they seemed to agree 18 months ago) and were willing to pay Zeke huge amounts of money before he ever carried the ball once.  He is being paid to be elite.  He needs to be elite and offer longevity.  They are betting he is a real outlier.  We shall hope and see.

Q: How do you think the Cowboys will handle being loyal to Jason Witten/phasing him out of the offense when he starts to decline even more than he has?

Great question and not really something that you would suggest is their specialty.  The idea of making a rough decision on when someone they really like is not what he once was is something that I am hesitant to suggest they have done well in the past.  They elected to say goodbye to DeMarcus Ware because of the cap number and Jay Ratliff over his health.  But, Witten may be 2nd only to Romo (and maybe even with Romo) when it comes to the beloved son of the franchise.  I would wonder when the time comes that they will hope Witten makes the first move. This is one worth following as unfortunately, the finish line approaches.

Q: Do you think it'd be a good idea to sign someone like Dwight Freeney now that Maliek is hurt? I'm worried about that DLine

I understand the concern, but I don't want to make too many decisions based on 4 weeks.  When Lawrence returns the DE position will look ok with Charles Tapper, Benson Mayowa, Ryan Russell, Lawrence, and probably David Irving.  As far as I am concerned, I think I like that.   Freeney was great last year at times in ArizoI keep seeing rumors that the Cowboys might trade a back. Which one do you think is first out the door?na, but we should remember who he was surrounded by and understand that this is not similar to here.  I think the Cowboys should see what they have here with the new group.  

Q: I keep seeing rumors that the Cowboys might trade a back. Which one do you think is first out the door?

This often upsets people, but when you look at Zeke, Alfred Morris, Lance Dunbar, and Darren McFadden, the one that seems to be the odd man out remains DMC.  He doesn't run the zone scheme well and the others are tailor made for what the team wants to accomplish.  He is very good, but is not a good fit here.  I don't know if you could get much in a trade, but I think that is the possibility in August.

DMN Cowboys Mailbag - 5/20 - Romo Was Hurt And Not Very Good in 2015

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2016/05/20/sturms-weekly-football-mailbag-looking-romos-2015-competitions-training-camp

Another week is somehow in the books -- time flies when you are having fun -- and we are down to 16 weeks until the regular season starts! What better way to spend a little of your Friday than with some Cowboys mailbagging!

Q: Where would a completely healthy Tony Romo rank among your top NFL QBs currently?

I think this is a pretty solid place to start and I guess it all depends on your level of optimism. So much of any Cowboys prediction rides heavily on what you believe about Tony Romo. He says all the right things and we all hope that he is telling the truth and everything turns out fine. We just talked about this on the radio yesterday because I am working on a project that asked me to look at all of the interceptions the Cowboys threw in 2015. My memory has already started to fade out the details of this very forgettable year a bit, but actually looking at each game brought a lot of things back to my attention. In my head, it was clear that the horrid play of all of the backup QBs was the biggest culprit (after we blame the collarbone sufficiently). But, as I looked at the 16 games, it was pretty shocking how poorly Romo played QB in those four games he did play. The throws were not good overall. He gave us a few moments of fun against the Giants and at Miami, but overall, Romo looked like he was playing hurt when he was out there. Even some of his good throws against the Dolphins, for instance, looked like looping throws, rather than the Romo fastball.

This puts you in a spot where that voice in your head is hoping that this was mostly a case of him rushing back when he wasn't quite right. He was bailing out of passes in November because deep down inside, he knew that his shoulder could go the first time he took a real hit (he was correct, by the way).

So, I say all that to say this: Watching his snaps in 2015 were a bit disconcerting overall. Statistically -- with a small sample -- he had his lowest QB rating and highest interception percentage of his career. This after the 2014 Romo had the highest stats of his career. He also turned 36, where we start to wonder when Father Time will start taking some of these extraordinary athletic gifts away from our athletes. So, does 2014 Romo still live here? Everyone is hoping.

So, where does a healthy Romo rank in the NFL? Well, the 2014 Romo had a gripe about the MVP award. That puts him in the top five easily and maybe higher. If that guy is still in that body -- and his body can take the hits that every QB (even with a great offense and a great line) must take -- then we can say that when he is right, he is still among the best. And clearly, every Cowboys decision seems to drip with the premise of "Tony Romo is still a great QB."

I guess we ignore our eyes and hope they are right. Not sure what other choice a Cowboys fan has right now.

Q: What's a realistic expectation for the Cowboys, record wise, in their first four games with their top two pass-rushers suspended?

The first four games of the Cowboys schedule are: Sept. 11 vs. Giants, Sept. 18 at Redskins, Sept. 25 vs. Bears, Oct. 2 at 49ers. There are no world beaters in this group and there are no projected playoff teams (at least in my head). So, with a defensive line of Tyrone Crawford, Cedric Thornton, Benson Mayowa and Jack Crawford starting with David Irving, Ryan Russell, Maliek Collins, Charles Tapper and Terrell McClain behind them, I think they should be in decent enough shape against those opponents. I would say you hope for 3-1 and you settle for 2-2. So much has been invested in this offense, so you would sure hope that everyone is healthy and ready to go crazy in the first four games. In the next four games you do have a couple playoff teams and that means a pass rush should be more vital. I think the Cowboys' goal is to get to 9-10 wins and to do that, they will need to get through September in a strong fashion without the two suspended players.

Q: So which is the best team in Texas in 2016: the Cowboys or Texans?

Great question. Because I really think the Texans have a chance to be pretty solid this season. Everyone will talk QB, but how about getting Lamar Miller from Miami? I think that would have been the move I would have earmarked for the Cowboys back in March. (I did!) The Texans also play in a division that doesn't scare anyone, so I will likely have both teams win totals in the same relative area. I would also love to put a super team together that allows the Cowboys' offense to join the Texans' defense to win the Super Bowl for Texas. And, while in fantasy land, I would also like to make it mandatory that the Cowboys and Texans play every year. But, I am king of nothing and don't get to declare things from the throne with any effectiveness. So, I will hope it is the Cowboys, but I will say that without much conviction until this defense shows me some things.

Q: Do you think Rico Gathers has a chance to make the roster out of camp or is he looking at a practice squad year?

I am relatively sure that the only way Gathers makes the 53 is if they are sure he will be snapped up by someone if they try to sneak him through to the practice squad. To do so, they must expose him to the league and if he does anything special in preseason, that could be an issue. But, if you keep him on the 53, then there is a chance you are playing with 52 this year -- unless he can figure out special teams in one summer (which seems unlikely -- or impossible -- if you haven't played football since 8th grade). The most likely scenario? If he is really good in camp, I would watch for the season-long IR for some imaginary or small injury to basically keep him team property for the season without having to do any of the above. Teams do this all the time, and if that happens in late August, remember who predicted this for the biggest project the Cowboys have signed up for in years.

Q: How much of a pass-rushing threat do you think Tyrone Crawford can be playing defensive end?

I assume that he will be decent. And it isn't like Randy Gregory is DeMarcus Ware. I think those suspensions hurt more in body count than in actual quality in the short term. Sure, DeMarcus Lawrence is this team's best pass rusher, but that doesn't mean he is great. That means he is good and could develop into very good. Gregory hasn't shown much of anything at the NFL level that we should cry about his absence. He has a long way to go. I think with two free-agent additions and two draft additions, this team should be able to survive September in decent shape.

Q:  Which training camp battles would you be most excited to see come late July?

Well, to be honest, this roster doesn't seem to have a whole lot of competition to start. I will write the 22 starters out on May 20th and I bet (injuries pending) that I can go 20 for 22 for opening night: Romo, Smith, Collins, Frederick, Martin, Free, Witten, Bryant, Williams, Elliott, Beasley on offense (11 personnel). Then, on defense: Crawford, Crawford, Thornton, Collins (this one is the questionable one), Lee, McClain, Hitchens, Carr, Scandrick, Jones, Church.

The closest thing to battles will be free safety -- Byron Jones or JJ Wilcox -- and right tackle -- Free vs. Chaz Green. I don't really see either of those likely. Jones is the future at free safety no matter what and while Green may have some upside, I don't think they want him starting right away. Beyond that, this is your team, I believe.

So then the competitions become for depth, like who is the fourth and fifth WR, who is the fourth and fifth LB, who are your third-down rushers, and so on. But, this is a veteran team that has been built to win now. They have most of their starters squared away. Now, the question is about depth and quality.  

Q: Saw ESPN projections story that had Cowboys winning East by four games over rest of teams. Sounds a little crazy to me, even in the best-case scenario. Your thoughts?

My thoughts are that almost nobody ever wins a division by four games. And the Cowboys have to deal with the defending division champs in Washington, a talented team in New York, and I doubt Philadelphia is a concern. I think 9-10 wins will win this division and I think the Cowboys can be that team, but I would never project a runaway laugher. I also think I am having a hard time predicting anything in May with that degree of specificity, so I will defer to projections for those who want them.

As for me, I will wait on everything else for next week. Have a fine weekend. 

DMN Mailbag - 5/6

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2016/05/06/sturm-weekly-cowboys-football-mailbag-time-zeke-jaylon-draft-class

The Dallas Morning News

Running back Ezekiel Elliott, who played for Ohio State, stands for a photograph after participating in an interview after he was introduced by the Dallas Cowboys after being drafted fourth overall in the 2016 NFL draft by the Cowboys at the team's headquarters in Irving, Texas, Friday April 29, 2016. (Andy Jacobsohn/The Dallas Morning News)

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

Friday mailbag time once again as we get authentic emails and questions from you the devoted and loyal football enthusiast.  Let's reach in today and see what everyone has on their pigskin minds.

 

Q: Which NFL running back(s) would you compare Elliott to in terms of style and ability?

For me, as I was preparing for the draft and watching him play at Ohio State, I would keep coming back to the same guy - LeSean McCoy.  Now, McCoy is not exactly as big - Elliott should have about 10-15 pounds on him, but the style is very similar.   He will plant his foot and go with decisive cuts and downhill acceleration.  I like that.  I have also heard Jamaal Charles, but now we are really talking a size difference.  But, in all 3 cases, we are talking about guys who can check every box in terms of an RB who is more than a 2-down back.  He can run with it, catch it, pass protect, and every other component that a team would seek in a 3-down guy.  The issues will always be how much his body can handle. He is built in a durable sort of way, making you think he should be a candidate for 600-700 snaps.  I think McCoy is a good comp and one that should fire Cowboys' fans up.

While we are here, a few moments on snap counts for RB.  Only 2 RBs in the entire NFL played more than 700 snaps in 2015 - Devontae Freeman for Atlanta had 768 snaps and, surprisingly, DeAngelo Williams of Pittsburgh hit 702.  Given that most teams range between 1,000-1,200 snaps in an offensive season, you can now see why RB is often not considered a premium position to over-leverage in contracts or draft position.  Adrian Peterson plays on less than 2 out of every 3 snaps for the Vikings (65%), for instance.   Todd Gurley played 456 snaps for the Rams last season as a rookie to do all of his damage.  So, for Elliott, we assume the Cowboys have much bigger plans and aspirations, but only time will tell if they can actually do it.  Teams try to play their RB1 about 40 of the 65 snaps to keep him fresh, and frankly, they try to avoid their best RB from having to take on blitzing LBs on a regular basis.  Why?  Because you want your big collisions to be on plays where he has a chance to take the ball to the end zone.  Using his collisions for pass protection should be done very sparingly.  

Q: What do you think are reasonable expectations for Elliott, assuming he starts Week 1?

I would hope that if he is healthy and able for the whole season, that he hits 1,600 yards next season - 100 per game. That sounds reasonable, right? Unfortunately, in the last 6 years, there have only been 6 seasons of 1,600 from any RB in the NFL. Adrian Peterson 2012, DeMarco Murray 2014, Arian Foster 2010, Alfred Morris 2012, LeSean McCoy 2013, and Maurice Jones-Drew in 2011. That is the entire list. Nobody did it last season. But, I still think 1,600 should be the bar for Zeke in 2016. The Cowboys have gone all-in on this style and now they need to make it pay off.

Q:  How much concern should there be about the nerve issue with Jaylon Smith's knee? Will that set his rehab back significantly?

Lots of concern.  This is a very significant injury that has very significant concerns about a full recovery.   I would like to think that the Cowboys are less concerned than your average team about his recovery given their relationship with his doctor. But that doesn't mean that Smith's nerve is firing to eliminate "drop foot" yet, and there is absolutely no promise that a nerve returns to the previous levels of performance.  And for an elite athlete that does elite things, this is a very big deal.

However, we can only hope that the Cowboys' confidence level that they exhibited by taking him over perfectly healthy and talented players pays off for them.  I think Jaylon is a superb player who will be special in Dallas if his body will allow it.  But, he also plays a high punishment position and it will be vital that he is able to stay on the field once he gets back healthy.  I am hopeful and optimistic.  

Q: Seeing that most people are saying Rico Gathers was worth a flyer late in the sixth round. What do you think? Would that pick have been better spent elsewhere?

Well, we have to understand the probability of what you can normally expect at pick 217.  Basically, in the last decade, there have been nearly 400 players taken at pick 217 or later in the draft. With the exception of Julian Edelman, Steve Johnson, Justin Forsett, Cary Williams, JR Sneezy, and perhaps, Malcolm Smith, there have been almost no NFL starters taken.  That means you are looking for special teams contributors and projects about 98% of the time.  If a guy makes your team, that is a very significant accomplishment.  So, if the Cowboys and 26 other teams were at his workout at Baylor and saw something that they want to see about, then why not take a shot at the most interesting guy at that spot?

I have no big problem with it - partly because I am using the context of what the Cowboys normally find beyond pick #200.  

Once upon a time they used to find great players down there - Kevin Gogan, Jay Ratliff, Patrick Crayton, Larry Brown, and Chad Hennings were all in that group.  Heck, Herb Scott and Larry Cole, too!  But, in the last decade, the best players they found after pick #200 were Alan Ball and Sean Lissemore.  

I think you take the guy who you like the most to maybe turn into something.  Now, they get to work to see if they can do anything with it.

Q: Saw where you said you think Derrick Henry could have been a monster for Dallas. Do you feel the same way about Elliott?

Of course!  There is no question that Elliott is a more complete prospect than any other RB in this draft.  I want that to be clear, because during this draft season my feelings about draft value have been mistaken for not appreciating Zeke Elliott.

I was sure that Henry's build and style would fit magically with the Cowboys' offensive system and his downhill style would destroy teams in the 4th quarter with defensive backs not wanting to tackle him for fear of their own well-being.  And, for one final time, he would cost between 10-20% of what Elliott would cost.  

But, the Cowboys went a different direction and I have moved on.  They wanted the best RB in the draft and the favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.  They got him.  Now, we see how well their decision making process works.  

2/26/16 - Cowboys Mailbag - Tony Romo Doubts

Like all other fine Friday traditions, we now stop down for just a pile of emails and ramblings that generally range in the 2,000-word range for a little something we call the Cowboys Mailbag (surely, the least original name a mailbag consisting of Cowboys topics could possibly have).


Now, before we get too far into this with your many queries, I think I am required to get onto virtual paper my biggest Cowboys revelation/theory/speculation/best guess of the month: I fear greatly for Tony Romo's health. Greatly. As in way more than when he missed Week 17 in 2013 for a back surgery or that time when he went under the knife for his mysterious cyst removal procedure. Or the 1st time he broke his collarbone. Or the 2nd. Or the 3rd.


Let's face it. Tony has been through an awful lot of punishment playing QB1 for the Dallas Cowboys. He has taken a beating and he keeps coming back for more. But, things have really changed over the last 12 months and this theory of "3, 4, or 5 more years" of elite-level Tony Romo just doesn't hold water with me anymore.


I am a huge defender of all things #9 (Romo > Eli, #QBWinz, #QBRingz), but I am starting to wonder why my fellow media colleagues seem like they would rather discuss other things than the only thing that truly matters. I am sure it is because either they are confident that this is just another brick in the injury wall or they are bound by their journalistic boundaries to not wildly speculate or yell "fire" in a crowded building unless they have proof.


But, I wildly speculate for a living. I attempt to remain measured and cautious on these topics, but this is not a breaking news story or some investigative report I am offering here. This is a guy who follows this team closely every day giving you an opinion.


Here it is: I don't think Romo's situation can be classified as a QB with "injury issues" anymore. Rather, I would suggest that Romo's collarbone situation would have to be called a "ticking time bomb." I think his future is week to week, not year to year. No longer a question of "if", but rather a matter of "when". I think that his collarbone has obviously not mended like they had first hoped and so here we sit - 159 days since Jordan Hicks broke it in September and 92 days since Thomas Davis got him again on Thanksgiving Day - without any further resolution that he is as good as new and ready to play. I might remind you that the Cowboys resisted the obvious plans of putting him on injured reserve because they originally assumed he would be available for the NFC Championship Game which was played on January 24th. 33 days ago.


So, I don't believe his collarbone has mended properly since Thankgsiving. And I sure don't believe it healed like they thought it would from September - as evidenced best that he broke it again on a rather normal-looking hit on Thankgsiving Day. I am far from a medical expert, but I can read a calendar. When they talk about this 8-10 weeks business and we sit here at the end of February and discuss further procedures, but still under the banner of "everything is fine and there is no reason for alarm", I am tempted to sound the sirens. I am not buying it anymore. This Mumford procedure that discusses shaving off part of the clavicle seems like a very odd way to strengthen a collarbone. I am positive I am showing my medical ignorance, but I also am assuming that most people having that procedure are not having 300 lb linemen like Fletcher Cox or Johnathan Hankins trying to slam them right on their collarbone at their first chance in an effort to remove the Cowboys biggest and most indispensible weapon from the proceedings.


I don't like it. In fact, I don't believe the rhetoric coming out of Valley Ranch on this topic anymore. I don't believe this 5-year window nonsense, and frankly, I don't believe they believe it either. There have been 8 QBs who were starters when Tony Romo took over the job in Dallas and remain starters today (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, and Romo). The only one to have started as few games as Romo is Palmer, and that is only because the injury-prone Palmer also has a 9-game contract holdout to his credit. In other words, Romo has the worst health-related attendance record in his peer group, and it doesn't look like it will ever get better.


He is an awesome QB, but this morning, after another week of Romo medical news that doesn't seem to get big headlines but does give me indigestion, I am feeling stronger than ever that the Cowboys know this reality and are taking a QB at #4. And they are not just doing it because it is the pick on their board. They are doing it because they quietly must know that the risks of expecting Romo to handle this on his own broad shoulders are now too great to take. The Romo-era is winding down quicker than they are willing to verbalize at the moment and I think an over/under on 24 more starts is about the betting line I think would be fair.


I think they will take a QB high this year (maybe #34, but most likely #4) and are merely being smart about not showing their hand until they must to get teams to not take their guy. This is all opinion, but my opinion is growing in conviction by the day. If Romo is starting in Super Bowl 53 for the Cowboys, I will feel silly about this Spring 2016 opinion existing, but that would be a mistake I would like to be guilty of. I justdon't think I am.


Ok, let's get down to business with your questions for the week. But, I see I am out of space in Part 1. So Part 2 will go through the mailbag:


http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2016/02/26/sturms-cowboys-mailbag-part-2-draft-questions-everyones-mind

Ok, speed round time for the many draft questions that are on my plate this morning:

Q: is there a QB2 on a team that's a possible QB1 that could be had for a pick or package? - @Hawk2973

A: I will be honest. I don't think this is an ideal plan. The QBs that are currently on the market represent enormous risk if you are thinking (like I am) that the Cowboys are no longer shopping for a proper back-up QB, but rather someone who they think could still be their QB in 2020. So, that immediately eliminates almost all of the retreads for likely candidates.

There might be a few exceptions, but in the case of Robert Griffin III, you have several elements that have to be strongly considered. What does he think his value is? He is used to making a ton of money per season. How important is competing for the starting spot? Because for now, they are going to proceed with Romo as the starter, but that might not be the case in October. They just can't sell Griffin on this Romo fear because that is something you really can't verbalize to impress a free agent. And, most importantly for me, how fit does he look? Because last August he looked like a rather broken QB both physically and between the ears.

Beyond that, most of the usual suspects appear to be not very good options (given their teams are looking to move on) or tremendous risks for value (Brock Osweiler, for instance, would cost a huge amount if Denver were to pass on a big offer) on unproven talent. That is why I keep coming back to the premise that the best idea is still to draft my next guy. Fixed costs, tons of potential, and a healthy body to mold from Day 1.

Q: What free agent back interests you the most out of Forte, Ivory, Miller?

A: This is interesting for sure. Lamar Miller is the best of the bunch at the age of 24, but I am not convinced that the Dolphins are going to let him get out of Miami. You are talking about a guy who was born in Miami, played all of his football of his entire life in Miami, and it isn't like the Dolphins have a better option. So, in terms of a realistic plan, I sure think Matt Forte is going to have a strong market for his services. But, when you talk about having a grasp of all of the components of a complete back, if Forte was in my mix, I would be awfully confident. He seems like a real dynamic weapon and ideal as a passing-down option who understands what is expected of him. I think there is still plenty of meat on that bone for the former Chicago Bears runner.

Q: I try not to approach the 4th pick with tunnel vision, but it's also difficult to balance that when you clearly see potential QB trouble up ahead. Wentz and Goff are number 1 and 2 in either order, depending on who you ask. I know you prefer Goff, but in your analysis, how do they compare? What puts Goff ahead? - Russ Giles

A: Well, first off, Russ, I want to be clear. I don't think there is a massive difference between the two. For me, what puts Goff ahead is the feeling that his grasp of the smarts required for a big time NFL QB seem to be there with a combination to know where to go with the football and an interest in pushing the ball down the field after he finds the appealing option. I think the hand-size information is certainly a bit worrisome, but watching his work as a QB last fall gave me proof that he knows what he is doing and his ceiling seems very high. Now, for Wentz, I have better size, a stronger arm, and better run ability. I do worry about the size of the stage because I realize he has been in big games, but not only is he moving up to the NFL, but he is doing it at the biggest circus tent in the league. I think he has the tools to handle it all, but there is a certain element of the unknown, and I do think he showed lesser mechanics in his throwing footwork and pocket presence.

Again, I really like them both. I have Goff as my 3rd best player in this draft and Wentz as my 6th, so neither is a stretch at #4. I can talk myself into either because both are prospects I would be ecstatic to add to my organization. Goff is ahead on a slightly better resume and a slightly higher ceiling. Wentz has not dealt with anything close to the speed of NFL defenses, so I guess my confidence with Goff is marginally higher. The good news (or bad news) is that the decision will be made for you. There is a 90% chance one of them is there, but a 10% chance both of them are available when the Cowboys pick. In other words, Cleveland will choose for you.

Q: Unfortunately, I just don't believe there's a "QB of the future" in the 1st round of the draft this year. It also feels like we won't take Jalen Ramsey because of Claiborne. Just go get a difference maker like Ezekiel Elliot, right? The Rams took took Todd Gurley too early, right!? Haha...-Reinhold


A: Well, I clearly disagree about QB of the future, but let's follow your logic. I would take Jalen Ramsey as my favorite defensive player in this draft. I take him and absolutely don't look back at the Morris Claiborne situation as any sort of guidance on that at all. It was clearly a butchered pick but it has nothing to do with this draft. As for Elliot, I had Todd Gurley as my favorite RB in any draft since Adrian Peterson so I would have taken him in the Top 5 last year. But, I don't have Elliot that high, personally. I will do his profile in March, but I would suggest that I absolutely have him valued quite highly, but I just think you can do better at #4 than him. That said, if they did end up with the prospect who seems quite capable at most every component of the RB skill set, I think everyone would get behind that pretty quickly. For me, though, I don't anticipate getting behind that at this juncture.

Q: Have you ever seen any player fall faster than Joseph Randle?

A: Have you ever heard of this Manziel character? He just turned 23. That was faster.

Q: What do you make of all of these ridiculous combine questions? I heard that one prospect was asked if he would murder someone if he knew he'd get away from it. What's the point of that kind of question?

A: I assume questions like that are common. Perhaps even the "baby Hitler" hypothetical. They get about 15 minutes with these guys to try to figure out how bright, contemplative, morally-obligated, and just sharp they are. To do so, they likely have spent money on research questions to get people to show their cards. On one hand, it all seems silly, but as I expanded last week, this is the biggest riddle in sports - to try to figure out how badly someone wishes to be great at their profession when they are handed a giant pile of money as they leave college. There is no great way to find out what makes them tick, so teams experiment. I don't blame them.

Q: Tunsil, Goff and Wentz go, 1, 2, 3. Who do you pick at 4? What's the farthest you would consider moving down? - @Bdunndunn

A: My board says the next 3 would be, in order, Jalen Ramsey, Joey Bosa, LaQuon Treadwell. I think you would be tempted to jump Bosa up given the situation at DE, but that is a very appealing group right there that would fire me up. Ramsey is my favorite, but Bosa would be a great addition. I don't buy this "not a sack guy" stuff on Bosa. He makes more plays behind the line of scrimmage than pretty much any player in this draft. Sacks and Tackles For Loss were his spot and he was quite productive and disruptive.

Q: How much attention do you pay to the combine? For you, does a bad performance at the combine outweigh a player's good game tape?

A: Well, I always watch the Combine because it allows us to see them all compared to each other with measurable talents that are part of the evaluation process. But, to your point, the game tape is always going to be more important than this. I would call this combine and pro day a series of "tie breakers" between comparable talent. It is good to see them all in the same place and get to know them better. But, the best way to evaluate football players is to study them playing football.

Q: Hi Bob. Really like your breakdowns of all of these prospects. Is there one in particular that you were so wrong about that it's embarrassing? Who was it?


A: The one that always sticks out were my questions about Von Miller. I thought he would have a tough time at the next level as he seemed to be a tweener. But, I clearly got that one wrong. My faith in Johnny Manziel was way to high as well. Too low on an Aggie and too high on an Aggie.


Q: is there any way in the world the Cowboys mess this pick up? Seems almost impossible - @smoffittou

A: Well, there is no such thing as a bust-proof pick, but when you consider the Top 6 players on my list and the Cowboys have the 4th pick, I will be shocked if they don't get a fantastic player. I am not sure they get their QB for the next decade, but they should get an absolutely phenomenal addition to their roster that should instantly be one of their Top 5 talents in the organization.


Have a great weekend!