Always the horses, seldom the jockey...
Daily Commentary on the Dallas Sports Scene - By Bob Sturm - Sportsradio 1310, The Ticket - The Athletic Dallas - The Athletic - Bob Sturm
Now that we have all had the weekend to process anotherCowboysloss on Thanksgiving — you can definitely catch up on my more general thoughts from theMorning After column here— it is time to really face some realities.
The Cowboys are still going to be heralded as a top offense in the NFL, because they are. They are still tops in the league in yards per game and top five in several other spots. As long as the league marketing machine measures quality based on total yardage, I guess they are still a heavyweight.
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) is forced out of the pocket by the Minnesota Vikings during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota, Thursday, December 1, 2016. (Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News)
Decoding Linehan
In the week leading up to Minnesota, we spent quite a bit of time discussing how the Cowboys had one of their worst days possible on defense against Washington and still won.
They allowed the Redskins to run up 500 yards of offense, never sacked Kirk Cousins, nor did they force a single turnover. And they still won.
We discussed how that was a fortuitous conclusion to a really tough day, and that they should like to avoid similar experiences in the near future.
Well, this occasion, seven days later, was nearly an opposite experience.
The offense -- a group that has had almost no days all season when anything appeared difficult to them -- sputtered all night long and looked vulnerable in many ways against a fired-up Vikings defense that forced Dallas into discomfort routinely.
Behold, the results:
-- Dallas scored a season-low 17 points on offense (including a special teams-aided touchdown).
-- Dallas totaled a season-low 264 total yards.
-- Dallas turned the ball over twice (tying a season high for turnovers).
-- Dallas converted a season-low one third down. Eleven percent.
-- Dallas won.
It really is quite a year when your stinkers go for victories, but given the fragile nature of wonderful seasons, we should begin to examine some of the issues that appear to be present as this team heads down the stretch. It isn't that we should freak out or anything. But this is a football organization that had a 13-3 season in 2007 and 12-4 season in 2014, when they went to the playoffs and were dismissed before the NFC Championship Game on both occasions.
That can happen. You can have amazing seasons that are dismantled in just under three hours.
With that in mind, what Minnesota did to provide a blueprint to certain potential playoff opponents must, at least, give one pause.
The Cowboys have been a dominant rushing team all season. Things have gone very well for them on the ground, which we believe is the foundation of what they like to accomplish. However, it should be noted that a disturbing trend has formed regarding their success rates since the injury to Geoff Swaim, the blocking tight end from Texas.
Swaim tore his pectoral muscle against Pittsburgh. Before that day, the Cowboys were getting a majority of their running game from multiple-tight end sets. Since then, Dallas has been trying to figure out a way around this obstacle because it makes its offense so much more powerful.
Why? Why do you think running with multiple tight ends is a big deal?
Because, when you are in a multiple-tight end set -- 12, 13, 21 (if a tight end is lined up as a fullback) or 22 personnel, you will see the defense attempt to defend you in their base personnel. They will not have a fifth defensive back on the field because they realize how difficult it is to stop the run being outsized so badly. Now that Swaim is out, there is a lot of the offense that is now trying to be replicated by Gavin Escobar, who, unfortunately, blocks like a wide receiver sometimes. If you make him block a linebacker or a defensive end, we see his issues bubble to the surface.
So the Cowboys are left with the unenviable choice of either trying to get Escobar to reach Swaim's level of blocking, or rip out a big part of the playbook that got the Cowboys to where they were when leaving Pittsburgh.
What you will find below gives you an idea of what we are talking about. This is just raw yardage numbers, but I didn't want to complicate things too much. You can see, though, when the Cowboys declared power runs by running two tight ends onto the field, the defenses did not have much success between Week 3, when the offense figured out how to get Ezekiel Elliott going, and Week 9, when Swaim got hurt -- with the lone exception of the Eagles' impressive showing.
Since then, the power runs have really slowed to almost nothing.
This doesn't mean they can't run at all. It just means a lot of it now will come from 11 personnel, when teams are not outsized on defense and a team like Minnesota (or Seattle) is not going to be manhandled in the same way.
It isn't a devastating issue, but it certainly is one to think about moving forward.
WEEKLY DATA - MINNESOTA
The numbers above are just not very good at all. Only 13 first downs. Look at the average yards-to-go on third down! Over 10! Too many penalties and no success on the early downs. Basically, this is the type of day we expected to encounter on a regular basis with a rookie quarterback.
This is what an overwhelmed offense vs. an elite defense looks like. Luckily, the Cowboys have not run into this much this season.
DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART
Wow, that is a very careful throw chart. Dak Prescott refuses to risk bad things in a game like that, which I am sure came at the hands of the coaches offering a game plan. They knew odds were very good that if the Cowboys could hold the ball, they would eventually win in a very hostile situation.
Then, the ball started to come loose. Lucky Whitehead fumbled. Elliott fumbled (and the play was overturned). Penalties and sacks, and then a quarterback strip fumble. It was all very chaotic, which made the offense be even more careful.
I think you need to make sure to include Jason Witten in the middle to occupy the safeties more. They had one connection brought back for an Elliott holding penalty.
PERSONNEL GROUPINGS
Above, note the production from each personnel grouping. This is something to keep an eye on. We don't fully know how much of that is the loss of a player, or how much of it has to do with the situation and opponent. But from here, it looks like the Cowboys' success is coming out of shotgun, when many of the runs are from 11 personnel. Spread them out and use the space. Trouble is, I don't know if that is the recipe to win in the playoffs, when smash-mouth football was the Cowboys' best move.
Let's look at the video:
That is an early run from 12 personnel that did not count. But both tight ends did a nice job and Zeke gets outside and hits the turbo. The issue here was a call on Free for holding the linebacker, Eric Kendricks (No. 54). I think that's a horrible call, and the linebacker sold it by acting like he was held. A truly ridiculous call, in my opinion. I know Free has struggled, but this is not a hold and it alters the game significantly.
This is third and 13. Prescott was phenomenal with his feet in this game. Imagine what a dual threat you have when a quarterback can do this against that defense on third and long. Very impressive work here.
Deep ball to Dez Bryant. The one really big offensive play in the game. We talk all season about how Dez has the same move over and over, so how do they let him get that DIG every time? It is a 15-yard route that takes a sharp turn to the inside of the field. The deep in. The Dez Bryant signature route. Well, here is Harrison Smith getting ready to jump that and Dez has a double move. Smith is awesome, but the Cowboys set him up with a season's worth of film and Dak delivers a nice ball that required a great catch. A little less on the ball and that might have been a touchdown. But this is pretty great as it is.
Look at the protection on the same play. This also is out of empty, which I would like to see the Cowboys do more if they are unable to power-run. Spread them out, but they have to figure out how to use Zeke as a receiver more if they do this. That is the downside.
Really rough night for Free. It appears this is becoming more and more of an issue. They just don't have very good pass protection from the right tackle anymore. I really appreciate his career, but we have seen a decline in 2016. Brian Robison (No. 96) gets him here and the ball comes loose.
Now, the very athletic Danielle Hunter (No. 99) gets Free from the same spot. Dak is going to need to start feeling that situation and escape in that direction if this continues. I am not sure how much a chip from Elliott would help this. Free just can't handle this type of edge guy, which complicates things, too. Seattle has plenty over right tackles to replicate this.
Here, the Cowboys break one late as Zeke bounces it to the outside on that same roll-out action we have seen so much out of 12 personnel. I think the game Kendricks had was very impressive, and here he saves a touchdown. This became a field goal, so his effort to get off the block and beat Elliott to that angle is remarkable.
And then there's this play, when it looked like Dak ended the game with a scramble. It is a screen play right to Zeke, but the Vikings sniff it out and take Elliott away. Dak doesn't panic and keeps heading for the marker, which he gets to comfortably, but a review backed the ball up a few yards and the Cowboys blow third and 1, leading to a punt (which turns into the Vikings' touchdown). I am sure next time Dak will dive head first and end the game right there, but we shouldn't lose sight of all of the good he did here, and all night, with his decision-making. He got it right quite a bit.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
There was a lot that was unsteady about that performance. You would have liked to see a lot more, but do not take the easy way out and just talk about the quarterback. There were too many penalties. Too many blown assignments. And just an overall poor performance from the big guys up front. Now, that is a product of playing a great defense at its place -- something the Cowboys likely will earn the right to avoid with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
But it did reveal some vulnerabilities and some issues at right tackle and No. 2 tight end. The Cowboys will have to closely monitor those situations and, perhaps, attempt to understand what everyone they have available is capable of these days.
A quality win, for sure. But, easily the 11th or 12th-best offensive performance of the season. Look for a bounce-back on Sunday at a very tough place against a defense that is designed to slow Dallas down.
Running back Ezekiel Elliott, who played for Ohio State, stands for a photograph after participating in an interview after he was introduced by the Dallas Cowboys after being drafted fourth overall in the 2016 NFL draft by the Cowboys at the team's headquarters in Irving, Texas, Friday April 29, 2016. (Andy Jacobsohn/The Dallas Morning News)
Friday mailbag time once again as we get authentic emails and questions from you the devoted and loyal football enthusiast. Let's reach in today and see what everyone has on their pigskin minds.
Q: Which NFL running back(s) would you compare Elliott to in terms of style and ability?
For me, as I was preparing for the draft and watching him play at Ohio State, I would keep coming back to the same guy - LeSean McCoy. Now, McCoy is not exactly as big - Elliott should have about 10-15 pounds on him, but the style is very similar. He will plant his foot and go with decisive cuts and downhill acceleration. I like that. I have also heard Jamaal Charles, but now we are really talking a size difference. But, in all 3 cases, we are talking about guys who can check every box in terms of an RB who is more than a 2-down back. He can run with it, catch it, pass protect, and every other component that a team would seek in a 3-down guy. The issues will always be how much his body can handle. He is built in a durable sort of way, making you think he should be a candidate for 600-700 snaps. I think McCoy is a good comp and one that should fire Cowboys' fans up.
While we are here, a few moments on snap counts for RB. Only 2 RBs in the entire NFL played more than 700 snaps in 2015 - Devontae Freeman for Atlanta had 768 snaps and, surprisingly, DeAngelo Williams of Pittsburgh hit 702. Given that most teams range between 1,000-1,200 snaps in an offensive season, you can now see why RB is often not considered a premium position to over-leverage in contracts or draft position. Adrian Peterson plays on less than 2 out of every 3 snaps for the Vikings (65%), for instance. Todd Gurley played 456 snaps for the Rams last season as a rookie to do all of his damage. So, for Elliott, we assume the Cowboys have much bigger plans and aspirations, but only time will tell if they can actually do it. Teams try to play their RB1 about 40 of the 65 snaps to keep him fresh, and frankly, they try to avoid their best RB from having to take on blitzing LBs on a regular basis. Why? Because you want your big collisions to be on plays where he has a chance to take the ball to the end zone. Using his collisions for pass protection should be done very sparingly.
Q: What do you think are reasonable expectations for Elliott, assuming he starts Week 1?
I would hope that if he is healthy and able for the whole season, that he hits 1,600 yards next season - 100 per game. That sounds reasonable, right? Unfortunately, in the last 6 years, there have only been 6 seasons of 1,600 from any RB in the NFL. Adrian Peterson 2012, DeMarco Murray 2014, Arian Foster 2010, Alfred Morris 2012, LeSean McCoy 2013, and Maurice Jones-Drew in 2011. That is the entire list. Nobody did it last season. But, I still think 1,600 should be the bar for Zeke in 2016. The Cowboys have gone all-in on this style and now they need to make it pay off.
Q: How much concern should there be about the nerve issue with Jaylon Smith's knee? Will that set his rehab back significantly?
Lots of concern. This is a very significant injury that has very significant concerns about a full recovery. I would like to think that the Cowboys are less concerned than your average team about his recovery given their relationship with his doctor. But that doesn't mean that Smith's nerve is firing to eliminate "drop foot" yet, and there is absolutely no promise that a nerve returns to the previous levels of performance. And for an elite athlete that does elite things, this is a very big deal.
However, we can only hope that the Cowboys' confidence level that they exhibited by taking him over perfectly healthy and talented players pays off for them. I think Jaylon is a superb player who will be special in Dallas if his body will allow it. But, he also plays a high punishment position and it will be vital that he is able to stay on the field once he gets back healthy. I am hopeful and optimistic.
Q: Seeing that most people are saying Rico Gathers was worth a flyer late in the sixth round. What do you think? Would that pick have been better spent elsewhere?
Well, we have to understand the probability of what you can normally expect at pick 217. Basically, in the last decade, there have been nearly 400 players taken at pick 217 or later in the draft. With the exception of Julian Edelman, Steve Johnson, Justin Forsett, Cary Williams, JR Sneezy, and perhaps, Malcolm Smith, there have been almost no NFL starters taken. That means you are looking for special teams contributors and projects about 98% of the time. If a guy makes your team, that is a very significant accomplishment. So, if the Cowboys and 26 other teams were at his workout at Baylor and saw something that they want to see about, then why not take a shot at the most interesting guy at that spot?
I have no big problem with it - partly because I am using the context of what the Cowboys normally find beyond pick #200.
Once upon a time they used to find great players down there - Kevin Gogan, Jay Ratliff, Patrick Crayton, Larry Brown, and Chad Hennings were all in that group. Heck, Herb Scott and Larry Cole, too! But, in the last decade, the best players they found after pick #200 were Alan Ball and Sean Lissemore.
I think you take the guy who you like the most to maybe turn into something. Now, they get to work to see if they can do anything with it.
Q: Saw where you said you think Derrick Henry could have been a monster for Dallas. Do you feel the same way about Elliott?
Of course! There is no question that Elliott is a more complete prospect than any other RB in this draft. I want that to be clear, because during this draft season my feelings about draft value have been mistaken for not appreciating Zeke Elliott.
I was sure that Henry's build and style would fit magically with the Cowboys' offensive system and his downhill style would destroy teams in the 4th quarter with defensive backs not wanting to tackle him for fear of their own well-being. And, for one final time, he would cost between 10-20% of what Elliott would cost.
But, the Cowboys went a different direction and I have moved on. They wanted the best RB in the draft and the favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. They got him. Now, we see how well their decision making process works.
Miami Dolphins' Brent Grimes gets stiff-armed by Dallas Cowboys running back Darren McFadden during the fourth quarter on Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015, at Sun Life Stadium in Miami. (Charles Trainor Jr./Miami Herald/TNS)
Now that the draft is over, I have a chance to tie up a few loose ends from the 2015 season that I see I overlooked as I hurried to get through as many draft prospects as possible. Please feel free to request a topic you would like me to elaborate on between here and training camp. I cannot promise I will do them all, but you can certainly inspire a day's work or two if you try.
For instance, I was reminded last night that I had never finished the 2015 running game analysis that I was publicly tracking throughout the season. The data was collected, but I never posted it for you to enjoy. So, here is the tweet that inspired this entry:
Granted, with the selection of Ezekiel Elliott, not to mention the signing of Alfred Morris, it is pretty clear that the Cowboys wanted to address this position for some of the items in our statistics. They were productive last season and actually ran the ball very well for a team without much of a passing threat last season, but when you look at these numbers, you might detect an issue or two below:
As you can see from my primitive spreadsheet, here is an attempt to catalog each and every run that the Cowboys attempted in 2015. I tried to organize it by runner and by separating it into two categories - zone runs (inside or outside zone) and man/gap blocking runs. Most are easily identifiable when looking at the All-22's, but I do not claim 100% accuracy as I certainly did not double check my work on this many plays. One pass through the games and I did the best I could.
Now, you can read the above chart in the following fashion. "21" is Joseph Randle, "20" is Darren McFadden, and "30" is the departed Christine Michael (for some reason the Turbin column is just Turbin even though he wore "23", I believe). The "21" column is zone runs, the "21-M" would be man runs. And, then the next column in each case is the yardage.
So, Joseph Randle averaged 4.1 yards a carry if you take his 76 runs as a whole. But, divided into the man vs zone question, you can take his 63 zone runs at 4.5 a carry and then 13 man runs which totaled 2.3 per carry.
Christine Michael and Robert Turbin were both brought in to help supplement the zone running scheme after Randle was gone (or on the way out) and while neither ever really was given a heavy workload, but when they did get the ball, it was almost all on zone plays. And the samples are so small we can't learn much.
But, the McFadden information is interesting. Last summer, I did a big study on McFadden's years in Oakland and discovered that one of the main story lines there for the Raiders was whether the zone running scheme was something that was hurting McFadden. As we pointed out then, not all zone offensive lines are created equal, so the hope was that the better players in Dallas might push McFadden to new heights.
And it seemed to work! Despite only being the #1 RB from November 1 on, McFadden and this offensive line combined to put him into the top 4 runners in the entire NFL. Without a QB! In a little over half the season! If you look at it from this perspective, it really boggles the mind how well they ran the ball down the stretch.
But, it gets even crazier when you look at McFadden's numbers by type of run. He ran the ball 239 times for 1,089 yards for 4.6 a carry. There is nothing wrong with those numbers at all. 76.6% of those runs were of the zone running variety. But, just 61% of the yards were on zone plays. In other words, on zone running plays that require a slightly different skill set (patience and then decisive decisions) from where he is most comfortable, he was only able to get 3.65 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, his man/gap runs, which were only 23.4% of his total runs, racked up 39% of his yardage, at an incredible 7.5 yards per carry. What we heard in Oakland became true here. He specializes in the type of runs that the Cowboys only use as their change-up. The Cowboys have built a line with massive resources that specializes in the fine art of zone blocking. Then, when they have you set up, they throw an occasional change-up with a pulling guard or a man scheme to catch you off balance. It has worked very well since they completely bought in with the drafting of Zack Martin in 2014.
Now, many of you have asked - if McFadden is so good at a certain type of run and so poor at another, why don't we change the scheme to fit him? I realize that seems like a simple solution, but if an organization is built on running a certain scheme, it seems foolish to make large-scale changes to accommodate one guy who you signed for almost no money. Instead, the objective for 2016 was to find someone who could run their scheme. That was Alfred Morris for a few weeks (who ran almost nothing but zone in Washington) and then Ezekiel Elliott in the 1st round (who seems to be able to do anything you want him to do). What becomes of McFadden? That remains to be seen in training camp, but the Cowboys do not have very many special teams contributors from their backup RBs if those backups are McFadden and Morris. And with small game-day rosters, that might be a consideration when filling out the final roster. We shall see.
So there you have it. To the best of my knowledge, the book on the 2015 running game. And the promise that the Cowboys in 2016 are going to get back to the recipe from 2014: Zone right, zone left, inside zone, and even more zone running down the field with only the occasional moment with a pulling La'el Collins into space to catch the defense guessing.
