Decoding Linehan - Week 12 - Minnesota

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2016/12/06/sturms-decoding-linehan-rough-day-provides-blueprint-opponents

Staff Photographer

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) is forced out of the pocket by the Minnesota Vikings during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota, Thursday, December 1, 2016. (Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News)

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

Decoding Linehan

In the week leading up to Minnesota, we spent quite a bit of time discussing how the Cowboys had one of their worst days possible on defense against Washington and still won.

 

They allowed the Redskins to run up 500 yards of offense, never sacked Kirk Cousins, nor did they force a single turnover. And they still won.

We discussed how that was a fortuitous conclusion to a really tough day, and that they should like to avoid similar experiences in the near future.

Well, this occasion, seven days later, was nearly an opposite experience.

The offense -- a group that has had almost no days all season when anything appeared difficult to them -- sputtered all night long and looked vulnerable in many ways against a fired-up Vikings defense that forced Dallas into discomfort routinely.

Behold, the results:

-- Dallas scored a season-low 17 points on offense (including a special teams-aided touchdown).

-- Dallas totaled a season-low 264 total yards.

-- Dallas turned the ball over twice (tying a season high for turnovers).

-- Dallas converted a season-low one third down. Eleven percent.

-- Dallas won.

It really is quite a year when your stinkers go for victories, but given the fragile nature of wonderful seasons, we should begin to examine some of the issues that appear to be present as this team heads down the stretch. It isn't that we should freak out or anything. But this is a football organization that had a 13-3 season in 2007 and 12-4 season in 2014, when they went to the playoffs and were dismissed before the NFC Championship Game on both occasions.

That can happen. You can have amazing seasons that are dismantled in just under three hours.

With that in mind, what Minnesota did to provide a blueprint to certain potential playoff opponents must, at least, give one pause.

The Cowboys have been a dominant rushing team all season. Things have gone very well for them on the ground, which we believe is the foundation of what they like to accomplish. However, it should be noted that a disturbing trend has formed regarding their success rates since the injury to Geoff Swaim, the blocking tight end from Texas.

Swaim tore his pectoral muscle against Pittsburgh. Before that day, the Cowboys were getting a majority of their running game from multiple-tight end sets. Since then, Dallas has been trying to figure out a way around this obstacle because it makes its offense so much more powerful.

Why? Why do you think running with multiple tight ends is a big deal?

Because, when you are in a multiple-tight end set -- 12, 13, 21 (if a tight end is lined up as a fullback) or 22 personnel, you will see the defense attempt to defend you in their base personnel. They will not have a fifth defensive back on the field because they realize how difficult it is to stop the run being outsized so badly. Now that Swaim is out, there is a lot of the offense that is now trying to be replicated by Gavin Escobar, who, unfortunately, blocks like a wide receiver sometimes. If you make him block a linebacker or a defensive end, we see his issues bubble to the surface.

So the Cowboys are left with the unenviable choice of either trying to get Escobar to reach Swaim's level of blocking, or rip out a big part of the playbook that got the Cowboys to where they were when leaving Pittsburgh.

What you will find below gives you an idea of what we are talking about. This is just raw yardage numbers, but I didn't want to complicate things too much. You can see, though, when the Cowboys declared power runs by running two tight ends onto the field, the defenses did not have much success between Week 3, when the offense figured out how to get Ezekiel Elliott going, and Week 9, when Swaim got hurt -- with the lone exception of the Eagles' impressive showing.

Since then, the power runs have really slowed to almost nothing.

This doesn't mean they can't run at all. It just means a lot of it now will come from 11 personnel, when teams are not outsized on defense and a team like Minnesota (or Seattle) is not going to be manhandled in the same way.

It isn't a devastating issue, but it certainly is one to think about moving forward.

WEEKLY DATA - MINNESOTA

The numbers above are just not very good at all. Only 13 first downs. Look at the average yards-to-go on third down! Over 10! Too many penalties and no success on the early downs. Basically, this is the type of day we expected to encounter on a regular basis with a rookie quarterback.

This is what an overwhelmed offense vs. an elite defense looks like. Luckily, the Cowboys have not run into this much this season.

DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART

Wow, that is a very careful throw chart. Dak Prescott refuses to risk bad things in a game like that, which I am sure came at the hands of the coaches offering a game plan. They knew odds were very good that if the Cowboys could hold the ball, they would eventually win in a very hostile situation.

Then, the ball started to come loose. Lucky Whitehead fumbled. Elliott fumbled (and the play was overturned). Penalties and sacks, and then a quarterback strip fumble. It was all very chaotic, which made the offense be even more careful.

I think you need to make sure to include Jason Witten in the middle to occupy the safeties more. They had one connection brought back for an Elliott holding penalty.

PERSONNEL GROUPINGS

Above, note the production from each personnel grouping. This is something to keep an eye on. We don't fully know how much of that is the loss of a player, or how much of it has to do with the situation and opponent. But from here, it looks like the Cowboys' success is coming out of shotgun, when many of the runs are from 11 personnel. Spread them out and use the space. Trouble is, I don't know if that is the recipe to win in the playoffs, when smash-mouth football was the Cowboys' best move.

Let's look at the video:

That is an early run from 12 personnel that did not count. But both tight ends did a nice job and Zeke gets outside and hits the turbo. The issue here was a call on Free for holding the linebacker, Eric Kendricks (No. 54). I think that's a horrible call, and the linebacker sold it by acting like he was held. A truly ridiculous call, in my opinion. I know Free has struggled, but this is not a hold and it alters the game significantly.

This is third and 13. Prescott was phenomenal with his feet in this game. Imagine what a dual threat you have when a quarterback can do this against that defense on third and long. Very impressive work here.

Deep ball to Dez Bryant. The one really big offensive play in the game. We talk all season about how Dez has the same move over and over, so how do they let him get that DIG every time? It is a 15-yard route that takes a sharp turn to the inside of the field. The deep in. The Dez Bryant signature route. Well, here is Harrison Smith getting ready to jump that and Dez has a double move. Smith is awesome, but the Cowboys set him up with a season's worth of film and Dak delivers a nice ball that required a great catch. A little less on the ball and that might have been a touchdown. But this is pretty great as it is.

Look at the protection on the same play. This also is out of empty, which I would like to see the Cowboys do more if they are unable to power-run. Spread them out, but they have to figure out how to use Zeke as a receiver more if they do this. That is the downside.

Really rough night for Free. It appears this is becoming more and more of an issue. They just don't have very good pass protection from the right tackle anymore. I really appreciate his career, but we have seen a decline in 2016. Brian Robison (No. 96) gets him here and the ball comes loose.

Now, the very athletic Danielle Hunter (No. 99) gets Free from the same spot. Dak is going to need to start feeling that situation and escape in that direction if this continues. I am not sure how much a chip from Elliott would help this. Free just can't handle this type of edge guy, which complicates things, too. Seattle has plenty over right tackles to replicate this.

Here, the Cowboys break one late as Zeke bounces it to the outside on that same roll-out action we have seen so much out of 12 personnel. I think the game Kendricks had was very impressive, and here he saves a touchdown. This became a field goal, so his effort to get off the block and beat Elliott to that angle is remarkable.

And then there's this play, when it looked like Dak ended the game with a scramble. It is a screen play right to Zeke, but the Vikings sniff it out and take Elliott away. Dak doesn't panic and keeps heading for the marker, which he gets to comfortably, but a review backed the ball up a few yards and the Cowboys blow third and 1, leading to a punt (which turns into the Vikings' touchdown). I am sure next time Dak will dive head first and end the game right there, but we shouldn't lose sight of all of the good he did here, and all night, with his decision-making. He got it right quite a bit.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

There was a lot that was unsteady about that performance. You would have liked to see a lot more, but do not take the easy way out and just talk about the quarterback. There were too many penalties. Too many blown assignments. And just an overall poor performance from the big guys up front. Now, that is a product of playing a great defense at its place -- something the Cowboys likely will earn the right to avoid with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

But it did reveal some vulnerabilities and some issues at right tackle and No. 2 tight end. The Cowboys will have to closely monitor those situations and, perhaps, attempt to understand what everyone they have available is capable of these days.

A quality win, for sure. But, easily the 11th or 12th-best offensive performance of the season. Look for a bounce-back on Sunday at a very tough place against a defense that is designed to slow Dallas down.

Decoding Linehan - Week 1 - Missed Opportunities

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2016/09/13/sturms-decoding-linehan-taking-shots-connecting-enough

On Tuesdays, we examine the offense from as many perspectives as possible and make sure, like the coaching staff, that we "look at the tape" to see what jumps out at us about the Scott Linehan/Jason Garrett offense.

We want to examine what worked and what didn't to see how this offense is coming along. There were some very good things for the Cowboys -- 75 snaps is pretty great and nearly 37 minutes would be considered fantastic. Twenty-four first downs is excellent and 10 third-down conversions is off the charts.

On the bad ledger: 75 snaps and one touchdown. Seventy-five snaps and just one explosive play (plays of 20 yards or more) -- a 21-yard catch by Geoff Swaim, of all people. And why are you also in 17 third-down situations? That also is off the charts. And just 19 points.

This is the 33rd regular season game for Scott Linehan calling plays and this game ranked 30th on the yards-per-play list, as the team snapped the ball 75 times for just 328 yards, which comes out to 4.37 yards per play. Way too low.

30.            9/11/16            New York Giants            4.37 ypp

31.            11/15/15            Tampa Bay                        4.30 ypp

32.            11/1/15            Seattle                                    3.85 ypp

33.            11/26/15            Carolina                             3.75 ypp

It was truly a rough November last season.

Regardless, when you look at all of these numbers, you conclude that the biggest problem on Sunday was that there were no explosive plays -- yards in big chunks -- which we never imagined would be a real issue.

What happened? Many of you have claimed that Scott Linehan was way too conservative with Dak Prescott making his debut. There is no question that they did not ask him to make all sorts of big throws, but I will respectfully disagree with the idea that the offense was really dialed back. I thought they took several shots. In fact, here is Dak Prescott's throw chart (thanks to my guy, John Daigle for his fine work again this year). The spots are where the ball lands and with this many throws past 20 yards, I don't think you can make the claim that they ran the Brandon Weeden game plan. That was wildly conservative, but I think the Cowboys were opportunistic to throw the ball downfield on Sunday.

They just didn't connect enough.

This shows six passes of 20 yards or longer, but only one was a blue dot -- 1-6 on these throws is something that you want to improve. You also will want to get some YAC, which the Cowboys didn't have much of. There is no reason some of these shorter passes shouldn't be able to break into the open field. Especially with the Giants crowding the line to stop the run.

DEZ BRYANT: 1 catch, 8 yards

Here are the balls to Dez Bryant:

Here was his lone catch. Second play of the game, a comeback to the sideline.

Deep shot to Dez from the slot. This one was close for sure. We have seen No. 88 come down with this in the past. It just didn't connect this time against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

Here is another look at how close that was.

Next, this is Janoris Jenkins taking a face-mask penalty against Dez as the ball is sent in that direction.

The above play changes your entire perception of Sunday's performance. If Dez catches this, everything is different. The Cowboys likely win. Dak Prescott is a hero. But, Bryant did not secure the ball and the review got them (again). Dez doesn't let this happen much, but even he will admit he has to win this ball.

Next, another play-action shot to Dez where Prescott is trying to hold the safety and then make a safe throw downfield. This is the one where you would like a better throw, but he was erring on the side of caution and threw it out of bounds.

Down one, 2nd-and-10, 5:33 left in the game. This one hurts. This ball is there and this ball is catchable although DRC does a nice job getting an arm in there to increase the degree of difficulty. Dez has position on Rodgers-Cromartie and this should help get them in position to win the game. Instead, the sun wins. Maddening! But, the throw is there.  

So there are all of the shots they took to Dez. I think it is important to see all of these shots before we act like they didn't try to get Bryant involved more. This many deep shots indicate that maybe they need more short throws to get him involved, but at least four times they gave him a real chance to affect the outcome with these throws.

They were searching for explosives. They just have to connect.

OFFENSIVE LINE ISSUES

Now, there is no question we are going to hold the offensive line to a very high standard. Very high. They are called the best line in the National Football League. They have three All-Pro players and have invested high draft picks and now massive contracts on this line. They have built everything around this line and some of you have called them one of the greatest lines in history.

It all looks great on paper.

But, 30 runs for 101 yards is just not what we were looking for. I chose to focus on Dak-to-Dez this week, but we will break down the offensive line all season from a running game perspective.

Today, though, I did want to spend a few minutes on the Giants front vs. Dallas. You know that all of the division rivals have gone heavy on D-line because they know they have to deal with the Dallas O-line. They know that this could likely determine success or failure, playoffs or not, and coaching/GM job security or the owner will go find someone else who can beat Dallas.

So the Giants went and spent. They signed Olivier Vernon from Miami and Damon Harrison from the Jets. They kept Jason Pierre-Paul and bet that those three and Johnathan Hankins could upset the Cowboys' run game and affect the passer. They then stacked the box to make running very difficult.

The Giants had zero sacks and zero takeaways on Sunday, yet it seemed like they won the line of scrimmage against the Cowboys on the final scorecard.

In fact, the Cowboys only did not score on four drives. And one of those was the final drive where they had some clock issues. But, the two drives in the fourth quarter where they let the game get away were both sabotaged by killer offensive holding penalties on La'el Collins. Do you know a bad combination? First-and-20, and then no explosive plays to get it all back.

First play of the drive where the Cowboys had a 19-13 lead and the ball with 12:00 left in the game. If they march this ball, they might win with ease. Instead, on the first snap, La'el tackles Vernon. Just tackles him. And the drive died with a three-and-out.

Next drive. Now, down 20-19 -- 4:57 left and 1st-and-10 at the Cowboys' 36. They need to score on this drive. Instead, on first down (again!) La'el Collins holds Vernon. Again. And again, three plays later, here comes the punt team.

I want to keep stats this season on how many drives are killed by holding penalties. They are absolute drive killers. And the Cowboys had two killers in the fourth quarter. This wasn't play calling.

Then, Jason Pierre-Paul vs. Doug Free happened. In the box score, JPP didn't upset the game or anything. But, we know this Cowboys-killer played quite a role. Let's watch a few of his better moments:

Gets Doug Free on an island.

Versus empty, Free now sets too far outside and JPP blows by inside.

Finally, late in the game, he almost gets home again.  

I would say the Giants feel pretty good about this strong performance against the best O-line in football.

Clearly, the YPP and the red zone execution are major components. And then just the one explosive play. There were some really good things on Sunday in terms of moving the chains and getting decent QB play, but obviously, they left a lot on the field.

PERSONNEL GROUPINGS PRODUCTION 

This is an interesting study when Tony Romo is the QB and the Cowboys vary their personnel groupings on nearly every play. But, as you can see, I think with Prescott, they are going to stay in 11 personnel almost all of the time and usually keep him in that familiar spot of shotgun where he can get the zone read going a bit more as he gets comfortable.

The official stats say 75 plays, but we don't keep the knees or the clocked plays in our charting, because really, what is the point of calling those run plays or pass plays?

CONCLUSIONS AND TAKEAWAYS

This needs to be a "big play" offense and on Sunday with Dez Bryant and Ezekiel Elliott, we saw no big plays to speak of. The only one was to the third tight end and another near-explosive to the fourth WR in Brice Butler.  

But, they took shots, they got good production from their QB -- let's not have him throw 45 times again soon, OK -- and they took care of the ball. They cannot deal with penalties on the O-line and the reviews were mixed in the blocking game and pass protection.

All things considered, scoring five times should be enough, but 19 points will hardly ever suffice in the NFL.

Some good things, but not enough to win. They need much better starting Sunday in Washington.

It is possible the game would have ended differently with one more kick. But, the enduring memory of losing to the Giants in Week 1 might come down to wondering if Dan Bailey can make a 63-yarder if this play ends differently.

We will never know.