‘This isn’t even close’: How the Cowboys became convinced that Tyron Smith was the man for the No. 9 pick in 2011

 The 2010 season felt like the end of the road for a Cowboys organization that appeared to grow old from the end of the Bill Parcells era through the Wade Phillips regime. Their annual high hopes were crushed when Tony Romo’s collarbone gave out when Michael Boley ran past fullback Chris Gronkowski on a blitz and into the young Dallas quarterback. From there, a horrendous 1-4 start grew into 1-7.

https://theathletic.com/2543017/2021/04/27/this-isnt-even-close-how-the-cowboys-became-convinced-that-tyron-smith-was-the-man-for-the-no-9-pick-in-2011/

Why it’s time to stop worrying about how much Tyron Smith has left in the tank

https://theathletic.com/986563/2019/05/21/why-its-time-to-stop-worrying-about-how-much-tyron-smith-has-left-in-the-tank/

Decoding Linehan - Week 17 - Eagles

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2018/01/02/decoding-linehan-evaluating-went-wrong-2017

Decoding Linehan

The 2017 Dallas Cowboys season ended in more disappointment. Sure, the record books will reflect it ended with a shutout win over a divisional rival that had a wonderful year, but let's not kid ourselves. That 6-0 win over the Eagles will serve to push the Cowboys down the draft order and do little else to soothe the wounds of a season that will be remembered as a massive underachievement.

As we look back to how the season will be remembered, I find it rather safe to point to the week of Nov. 5 as a good dividing point. And since symmetry makes things a bit more digestible, it should be noted that this halfway point in the season means eight games fall on each side of the dividing line.

On Nov. 5, the Cowboys smoked the Kansas City Chiefs (then 6-2) at home in a game that was thoroughly impressive. Everything they did that day seemed to work, and after dismantling one of the league's early-season contenders, Dallas looked more than poised to continue to challenge for a fine playoff spot and, perhaps, a run to Minneapolis.

Two things of great significance happened that week, with one getting all the headlines and the other drawing mostly crickets:

1.) Ezekiel Elliott's last motion for an injunction in his legal battle with the NFL was denied, and his six-game suspension was immediately reinstated that Thursday. He would miss the next six games in full and end up playing in just 125 (24 percent) of the possible offensive snaps the rest of the season.

2.) Tyron Smith aggravated his groin against Kansas City and missed five games either in full or in part through the remainder of the year. Sometimes it was the groin, others it was the back, and then the knee was listed on the injury report, but after playing in 529 snaps in the first half of the season, he would drop to 229 in the second and be replaced by some very poor performances from reserves.

Now, one could engage in some spirited debates over which one you would rather have, which one you are better equipped to replace and which one is an overall rare talent in today's NFL. But, know this, in any ranking of Cowboys assets, you would definitely place Smith and Elliott in the top five and, perhaps, as the top two. They are both in the top handful of players at their position and are both among the league's best players. One plays a glamorous position and does so with no fear of a camera, while the other seems to be far more anonymous in fan circles -- but make no mistake: they both are rare gems, and to lose them both will certainly be felt.

This much, though?

Above you see the realities of the two halves of the Cowboys season. Sure, they were only 5-3 through the first eight weeks and 4-4 in the second half, so books will not be written about the two halves being strikingly different. But if you watched the season -- as you no doubt did if you are reading this -- then you know they always appeared to be in the mix during the first half of 2017 and never seemed close once the Atlanta game kicked off, signaling the second half was beginning.

They easily were a top-10 offense and most of their offensive statistics in the first half of 2017 matched those in 2016. But then they lost Smith and Elliott.

Instead of playing a total of 993 snaps in eight games, the two talents combined for just 354 snaps in the next eight games. If you want to quantify the difference, it is all in that graphic.

They went from 28.3 points per game to 16. They went from being the eighth-most productive offense to 26th. They went from the second-best pass protection team to 25th. They turned the ball over, guys couldn't get open and drives were no longer sustainable.

Everything changed.

Yes, the NFL is a quarterback-driven league and Dak Prescott went from a reasonably able quarterback to a guy who didn't have a clue. He went from being a guy who had all the confidence a young quarterback could have to one whose fan base no longer believed he was glittering gold.

He had a 24-game track record of competence and then instantly lost all ability to play quarterback at this level? And you are telling me that quarterback can't play at precisely the same moment his two most valuable pieces vanished from his offense?

Is it possible the attendance record of his two most important offensive talents might have something to do with this? Can we explain much of the 2017 decline by the quarterback with the fact that, instead of getting sacked 10 times in eight games, he was sacked 22 times in eight games? Or that teams did not treat the understudies of Smith and Elliott the same way they would those two?

Smith missed two games against the Falcons and Eagles in which Prescott was sacked (often hard) 12 times in eight days. Is it possible that this affected him greatly -- his poise, composure, pocket presence and overall ability to orchestrate an NFL offense?

Look, I am not trying to tell you that Prescott is not a concern. I am not trying to tell you this offense is still one of the best in the sport. There are issues, and some of them are getting worse.

But you are telling me that I have 32 games of evidence with which to evaluate this offense. We have two groups: In Group 1, I have 24 games of evidence where almost everything looked really impressive and the offensive pieces fit together in a way that made us discuss their resemblance to the Cowboys' old dynasty (and they went 18-6) ... and in Group 2, I have eight games of evidence where the All-Pro left tackle and All-Pro running back were gone for almost all of it and the offense looked lost without a compass. Now, which should I weigh more heavily in my evaluation?

Before we decide to clean house and replace everyone as soon as possible, should we take a few breaths and consider things carefully?

I think there are some real issues. This team has been horrendous at generating big plays through the air and yards after catch over the past two seasons. That must improve. And for that reason, I think the coordination of the offense -- scheme and personnel -- should be looked at closely. That is an evaluation of 32-48 games that goes all the way back to the "Dez Catch," to be honest.

But to conclude that the "214" era of the Cowboys cannot work moving forward seems to miss the fact that when it is assembled, it has worked very well.

Smith and Elliott are wonderful talents. Losing one of them could wreck your offense's ability. Lose them both simultaneously, and perhaps you should expect everything to crumble.

I don't think we should spend too much time on Sunday's game, unless you wish to depress yourself further with the truth that as bad as the offense was -- and make no mistake, it looked absolutely atrocious -- it generated the third-best yardage production of the season's second half.

Let that soak in for a moment -- 301 yards of offense in that ridiculous game in Philadelphia was better than the offensive production against the Falcons, Eagles, Chargers, Redskins and Seahawks.

Everything seems broken right now.

Let's look at some season totals for the personnel groupings rather than give Week 17 anymore attention:

And then here's this chart from my guy, John Daigle, which shows how much they ran each grouping relative to the past several years:

The offense had a really tough year and slid back in many statistics. It has a rather stale scheme in terms of creativity and inserting new components/personnel, but as we stated above, stale is when you are losing. When you are dominating, we describe it as "sustainable and repeatable" and a battering ram that shows no mercy to opponents.

I don't think I can explain why Rico Gathers and even Ryan Switzer were not considered for much use. Hopefully we will soon be told the truth behind the Gathers situation. Was he concussed so badly that he disappeared completely, or are the Cowboys just reluctant to put him out there because they don't think he is that good? Switzer, even in the meaningless game against Philadelphia, showed he had an awful lot of elusiveness that should be used as a weapon moving forward. Basically, it looks like the offense lacks athleticism, but those two players are already in the building and seem to have athleticism for days.

I would strongly consider examining the play-calling and modifying route combinations to attack more horizontally and vertically. Everyone wants vertical, but horizontal attacks are needed just as much. Each play seems to result in hooks and comebacks, and those do not lend themselves to many yards after catch.

I also need better teaching for my quarterback. If that means veteran backups or a different quarterbacks coach, or just more deliberate methods that might include asking him to do less orchestration of the offense himself, then it is OK to slow down the desire to give him the keys to the Tony Romo offense. Let Prescott climb the ladder because in 12 months time, you must know if he is your quarterback or not for 2019-25, as he will get much more expensive then. You don't want to sign a regrettable $100 million deal with a guy you aren't sure about. The next 12 months need to make you sure.

You also need better depth on the offensive line and prepare for the possibility that Smith's most durable years are behind him. You can hope you are wrong, but you had better prepare to be right.

There is plenty of work to be done. But I would not reach for the dynamite.

The Morning After - Falcons 27, Cowboys 7 (5-4)

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2017/11/13/morning-falcons-rout-cowboys-one-sack-time

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

ATLANTA, GA - NOVEMBER 12: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys is sacked by Adrian Clayborn #99 of the Atlanta Falcons during the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on November 12, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

It wasn't ever going to be easy for the Cowboys against one of the more talented teams in the NFC. The Atlanta Falcons are certainly not positioned to return to the Super Bowl at the moment, but they have plenty of their pieces assembled to make them a formidable opponent in any circumstance. And the Cowboys certainly did not have all of their pieces in place, so to win a road battle like this would require some precision play and no self-inflicted wounds.

 

That goal failed on the second play from scrimmage when Jonathan Cooper committed a holding penalty. That was cancelled out by an Atlanta penalty on the same play, but a few snaps later a 5-man Falcons rush profited a sack when Adrian Clayborn shot by Chaz Green without Green hardly touching him.

This is a good spot to mention that the Cowboys were without left tackle Tyron Smith for this contest as he continues to battle a bad back. We first started tracking his health situation when he missed some action in 2016 and started missing practices. In the 2017 training camp, Smith - who I consider one of the best players in the entire NFL - was sitting out long stretches as they were being cautious with his back situation. This was also about the time where we were pondering what the Cowboys' plan for left tackle might be when and if Tyron was forced to miss time at a key point of the season due to this or another injury to the amazing player who you never even think about when he is feeding you a steady dose of excellence.

But, this Tyron has not been the Tyron Smith we have become accustomed to seeing over there at left tackle. This Tyron has occasionally been beaten on the edge for sacks and also committed a few penalties. These are normal things for normal players, but in the case of Smith, it was something that he would go weeks and months between being defeated on a snap - and has been known to actually flirt with perfect seasons.

So, when word passed this week that they might not be able to have their best player with them in Atlanta, it appears most people thought they were talking about the suspended running back they call Zeke. I had a feeling they were talking about the 26-year old, first-team All Pro who has successfully watched the blind side of Tony Romo and Dak Prescott for 7 years of total excellence. It is easy to assume that this job is easy when someone makes it look that way for years on end. One way to destroy that assumption is to put a replacement-level understudy in his spot and see what happens.

I would like to think that wasn't the objective Sunday for the Cowboys brass. Instead, I would suggest this is another case of them hoping for the best and not planning for the worst when they put their team together. Who is the swing tackle on this team? Well, hopefully, it won't matter!

It did matter. The Cowboys had figured that Chaz Green, their lost cause to fix the Jermey Parnell vacancy when they grabbed him in the third round out of Florida, might be a decent backup guard. But those are significantly easier to find than a decent backup tackle. To be fair, the league has almost none. There are not enough decent starting tackles to go around, to expect teams to have two fine tackles who do not get overrun each Sunday and another one in reserve - just in case - is generally seen as unreasonable. So, you find the two starters to protect the flanks against the unreal pass rushers in this league and hope they stay healthy.

Seattle lost its tackle in training camp and finally had to make a big trade to replace him. Green Bay lost both its highly paid tackles and its QB was lost shortly thereafter. You lose a tackle as a contender and you are up a creek without a paddle in many cases, and putting your QB under massive risk. And, any hollow belief the Cowboys were not in that group went up in smoke Sunday about 3:25 p.m.

The odd part is that we didn't expect Adrian Clayborn to be the one to teach the Cowboys this difficult lesson. Clayborn is also in his seventh season - taken in that same first round and 11 selections after Tyron Smith - and after his impressive rookie season in 2011 when he had 7.5 sacks, never had 6 sacks in an entire season.

But, on this day, because the Cowboys were not prepared to play a game without Tyron Smith, Adrian Clayborn had what we will call a "career afternoon".

If you want to summarize the entire battle between a very good Cowboys team and a very good Falcons team and the day they met in Georgia in November of 2017, it will basically come down to this - the Cowboys were unable to overcome the repeated "Drive Killers" that were mostly caused by the fact that a typical NFL defensive end had a superhuman day at the expense of your sub-standard left tackle.

Drive Killers are a term we attempt to avoid - as every NFL offense should. 84 percent of all sacks allowed last season in the NFL ended the drive for the offense. That means that only 16 percent of all drives where a QB is brought down can still continue its success - even if that sack is on first down and for one yard. Holding penalties serve the same purpose, and while it is not as pronounced - probably because you get to repeat the down, at least - that would be the second-most likely drive killer (we don't count turnovers since that is obvious).

So, let's walk through the 10 drives the offense rolled out on Sunday.

Drive 1: Holding by Cooper, sack allowed by Green.

Drive 2: A clean drive, most likely because the drive started at the Atlanta 21. Touchdown.

Drive 3: A sack killed the drive, surrendered by Green.

Drive 4: Cooper with another holding, Zack Martin gives up a sack.

Drive 5: Green with a holding penalty, then Green with a sack allowed.

HALFTIME

Drive 6: Green gives up another sack.

Drive 7: Green gives up yet another sack.

Drive 8: Byron Bell replaced Green and then gave up a sack and took a hold on the same play!

Drive 9: Bell gives up another sack.

Drive 10: Game mercifully ends.

True story:  Clayborn has incentive clauses in his contract that he makes $250,000 if he gets 6 sacks in the entirety of 2017 and $500,000 more if he gets to 8 sacks.  He had 2 sacks total coming into Sunday and $750,000 more in his pocket that night when he had his 8 bagged.

So, we could check and see if Clayborn is Von Miller or JJ Watt (he is not) and if not, we can simply conclude that lost in all the discussion about Ezekiel Elliott and which court is the next to hear the appeals of his lawyers, the Cowboys perhaps detonated the time bomb of what would happen if Chaz Green actually ever had to play tackle and try to keep the offense functional.

They can't. He can't. And even if he could before Sunday, the mental damage when an average defensive lineman destroys you like that will likely be felt for years. I am not sure Chaz Green can take another snap out there at left tackle.

Could it have been avoided by the time you get to game day? Yes. The coaches did him no favors. You can't hide a left tackle, but you can help him. In the third quarter, the Cowboys are still in the game. They take their first drive of that quarter right down the field with great power on the ground. Down just 17-7 with much of the second half to play, they marched all the way to the Falcons' 12-yard line after Alfred Morris had runs of 14 yards, 20 yards, and 11 yards. They have actually salvaged the situation and now have a first down in the red zone. Why then, Mr. Linehan, would you decide to hop back into shotgun on first down and ask Chaz Green to pass protect - on an island - against a guy who already has 4 sacks against him? It is first down and your offensive line and power personnel groupings had just mowed all the way down the field in a few short plays. And now, you want to take those tight ends off the field and get back into shotgun on first down?

Predictably, the play ended in a sack and that drive was killed, too. In fact, when Mike Nugent even missed the chip-shot 38-yard field goal, the game effectively ended.

Unfortunately, the coaches had not done enough damage yet. Even though the game was over in the fourth quarter (after a few more sacks), the staff that evidently had their brains suspended for the game are calling timeouts down 27-7 to try to get the ball back so they can call more plays in shotgun and get their star QB blindsided a few more times by Clayborn and friends who have savaged the left tackle spot long after Chaz Green was gone and Byron Bell (their other idea) was being served up on a platter.

They should have been running the ball or even taking a knee - not calling timeouts to prolong the destruction - but Jason Garrett is going to never stop being Jason Garrett.  They never really helped out Chaz Green, nor did they modify their strategies to protect him from getting Dak killed, but instead wanted to get the ball back to rerun their same poor strategies.  Madness.  

There were many other talking points to discuss, not the least of which is another disappointing turn in the injury-prone path of the fantastic Sean Lee and what that does to render the defense immediately helpless, but we have a few more mornings to break this down.

For now, the injury-free season of the Cowboys seems to have taken quite a turn. If they can keep their pieces assembled, both with health concerns and the all-too-frequent suspensions this team has become famous for, they look like a real NFC contender.

But, days like Sunday in Atlanta are stark reminders about how thin that tight rope truly is. They couldn't get out of their own way. They couldn't block or tackle and they couldn't make wise decisions. They have 6 days to Sunday when the Eagles come to town and the trainer's room will be full of guys trying to get ready.

If they aren't ready, they will watch the Eagles take their division title in the Cowboys stadium. And nobody around here wants that.

Get well, Tyron.  Quickly.  

DMN - Mailbag Sept 30

So, you are three games into your season at 2-1, favored in Game #4, and life is great because your rookie class is already contributing in several spots! It's very rare around here to have so many things falling properly.

Unfortunately, we can't stop there, can we? Ominous storm clouds are rolling in. NFL success requires keeping the key players on your roster healthy and part of your workforce.  Every team will sustain injuries. But the randomization of these injuries seems to control standings by the end of the year.  

So, here we are, on the final day of September, and the Cowboys do not feel good about their three most pricey assets:  Tony Romo's health never seems consistent, Dez Bryant has a hairline fracture in his knee, and Tyron Smith's back keeps locking up. Our friends at Spotrac have a full page on the Cowboys' investments, and the names at the top verify the poor injury fortune so far.

It certainly isn't an exact science, but in the case of the Cowboys, it sure looks close. That is, in July, you ask me "Who are the three guys you must keep healthy in 2016?" I am likely saying Romo, Bryant, and Tyron. Maybe Sean Lee gets in there, too. But, man.  

The Schedule Through The Top 100 List Lens

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2016/08/10/sturm-many-cowboys-summers-nfl-top-100-list

Before we go too far into today's project, please know that everybody is aware that lists don't mean anything in sports beyond serving as talking points. They are lists. And either they are a media guy's opinion or a coach's opinion or someone else's opinion. Opinions kill time in sports, but we have scoreboards that truly matter. We all know this and we all get it.

Fine.  

However, during the summer months, time does need to be killed and the NFL Network has a worthy time-killer that involves polling the league's players to come up with an annual list of the Top 100 players in the league. The players vote for their top 20 and from the results of those countless returned ballots, they do the math and spit out who is at the top. In a way, it is a popularity contest, but I do want to know who the players think is the best. It also is a poll dominated by recency bias, so a 4-12 Cowboys team will not represent the same way a 12-4 Cowboys team would the year before.

That said, during my summer break, I took careful notes so we could have a day on the blog to visit about this. And today is that day.

The Cowboys only had two players crack the Top 100 in 2016, after putting five on the list in 2015. They are:

No. 51, WR Dez Bryant (No. 15 last year)

Obviously hurt by being hurt, Dez slips down to being the seventh-ranked wide receiver in the league by his peers.

No. 42, LT Tyron Smith (No. 36 last year)

Tyron is in essentially the same spot, where he fits as the second-rated tackle and third-ranked offensive lineman overall behind just Joe Thomas and Marshal Yanda.  

Those who dropped off the list from last year include Tony Romo (No. 34 last year), Jason Witten (No. 93) and DeMarco Murray (No. 4 when he was a Cowboy on last summer's list). In the case of Romo, you would certainly hope that is all based on the pessimism around his health and his upside moving forward. He is behind 15 different quarterbacks rated on this list -- many of whom you would be offended by if someone claimed they were better than Tony.

Again, it is just a list. But I enjoy looking at it every year.

Now, another exercise I go through to prepare for the season is looking at the Cowboys' schedule as it pertains to the Top 100 list. In other words, who will they be facing each week from the list? Here we go:

Week 1 -- New York Giants

No. 10, WR Odell Beckham; No. 47, QB Eli Manning

Week 2 -- at Washington

No. 11, CB Josh Norman; No. 45, T Trent Williams; No. 77, TE Jordan Reed; No. 85, QB Kirk Cousins

Week 3 -- Chicago 

None.

Week 4 -- at San Francisco

No. 61, LB Navorro Bowman

Week 5 -- Cincinnati 

No. 16, WR AJ Green; No. 29, DT Geno Atkins; No. 35, QB Andy Dalton; No. 44, TE Tyler Eifert; No. 67, T Andre Whitworth; No. 70, DE Carlos Dunlap

Week 6 -- at Green Bay

No. 6, QB Aaron Rodgers; No. 57, LB Clay Matthews; No. 95, DT Mike Daniels

Week 7 -- Bye

Week 8 -- Philadelphia 

No. 49, DT Fletcher Cox

Week 9 -- at Cleveland

No. 23, T Joe Thomas; No. 94, TE Gary Barnidge

Week 10 -- at Pittsburgh

No. 4, WR Antonio Brown; No. 21, QB Ben Roethlisberger; No. 41, Le'Veon Bell; No. 88, DE Cameron Heyward

Week 11 -- Baltimore

No. 37, G Marshall Yanda

Week 12 -- Washington

No. 11, CB Josh Norman; No. 45, T Trent Williams; No. 77, TE Jordan Reed; No. 85, QB Kirk Cousins

Week 13 -- Minnesota

No. 5, RB Adrian Peterson; No. 73, S Harrison Smith; No. 77, DT Linval Joseph

Week 14 -- at New York Giants

No. 10, WR Odell Beckham; No. 47, QB Eli Manning

Week 15 -- Tampa Bay 

No. 53, LB Lavante David; No. 63, DT Gerald McCoy

Week 16 -- Detroit 

No. 43, DE Ezekiel Ansah

Week 17 -- at Philadelphia

No. 49, DT Fletcher Cox

It's really a manageable schedule if you look at it carefully. If the average NFL team should have three Top 100 players, then the Cowboys only play three teams that are above that average: The Bengals, the Steelers and the Redskins.

They also avoid the three NFC Powers: Carolina, Arizona and Seattle.

They do, for what it is worth, face a fair number of Top 100 QBs: Eli Manning and Kirk Cousins twice, Andy Dalton, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger. But that's assuming you think Cousins is a legit Top 100 guy. I suspect that is an example of that pesky recency bias there.

Anyway, that is this morning's exercise of examining the season through the lens of the Top 100 list.