Let's do a mailbag!
Before we start, a thought on the Bears. I spent a few hours on them last night and cannot remember a less interesting roster than what Chicago has right now. Yes, they are beat up already, but even at full strength, you are trying to talk yourself into the concept of them being good -- rather than the reality.
In other words, you cannot lose to these guys on Sunday. There are must-win games, and then there are "you will regret this the rest of the year if you let this bunch take a win out of your building" games.
You really should pound them. And I realize the Cowboys are flawed. But, man, Chicago has a ways to go before they get out of picking in the top 10 in the draft.
On to the questions:
Q: Why do you think the Cowboys can't win at home? Jerry didn't buy a 1.3 billion dollar playpen for losses, I have to think...
People wanted solutions and I did not present many because there are no real trends that stick out. Obviously, Tony Romo's attendance record is at the heart of the issue. But then again, that seems like barking at the moon. If the solution to everything is "keep Tony Romo healthy," then we are all wasting a lot of time analyzing the team and, also, maybe quarterback wins are real stats.
Also, Cowboys backup quarterbacks have won games on the road and not at home (for whatever reason), which is a bit more difficult to explain, but the past two trips to Washington were wins by Matt Cassel and Dak Prescott (the only win either of them has ever engineered, so far -- although I bet Prescott gets his first home win on Sunday).
To be honest, it seems to me that there is a real aggressiveness element to the whole story. I think they play to win on the road more often than they do at home, but that requires a fair amount of looking at statistics from a slanted point of view. What I mean is that most play-calling is situation-dependent, therefore, to look at yards or run/pass ratios and offer conclusions can be dangerous.
Romo's record at home since 2009 is 25-18 in the regular season. That is well above 47 percent. In fact, it is above 58 percent. And he is 26-19 on the road since 2009. That is 57 percent. Pretty much identical in either place. So, it might all come down to the backups being 2-12 at home and 5-7 on the road to explain the home form versus the road form. And Romo's body.
Q: Has Jason Garrett turned the corner from being a conservative coach to a gambler or was last week just an exception?
The coaching staff did some very interesting things last week that made us think they are done frustrating us with their extreme conservatism. That includes the incredibly uncharacteristic onside-kick ambush in the third quarter. The man who gave us "you don't lay up at the Masters" has not always lived his quote.
But, I will file this under the "I will need to see more to call this a trend" heading until we see him coaching ruthlessly more often. I think Rod Marinelli also is a guy who fits Garrett's sensibilities very well and we know Scott Linehan does. Let's continue to monitor and home that Coach Conservative breaks his mold, but unfortunately, he is becoming an older dog here in Year 7.
Q: I know everybody is hyping up Morris Claiborne to having this great year but he doesn't have any interceptions and hasn't jumped off the screen much... You think he's doing as good as everybody says?
I think Mo Claiborne is playing some solid football. Not perfect, but much better than what we have seen. He just needs to stay on the field. He has to play. He just has never played as much as he needs to and cornerbacks are all about snap counts. They have to stay on the field or their value is zero.
Look at the snap count difference between Claiborne and Brandon Carr. They both got here in 2012, so they have both had the same number of available snaps. Carr has been in 4,305 plays (all of them) and Claiborne has played in 2,319. That is roughly 54 percent of Carr's total. I have always defended Carr and never defended Claiborne based on this simple idea. Carr may not pick off enough passes and stop enough plays, but he battles and battles for three hours every Sunday. Claiborne has not proven he can be counted upon.
So, we never get to a technique discussion. One is present and one is not. That is why I don't get carried away when Claiborne plays two good games. Call me when he plays a full season (at any level of quality) to prove he is worthy of a monetary investment moving forward.
Q: Is this defensive line good enough to where when Demarcus Lawrence comes back in a couple weeks, he takes it to a decent level or is it a lost cause?
I made the claim in August that DeMarcus Lawrence is going to come back in Week 5 and still get eight sacks. I am that impressed with his progress and how he looked in camp. This may look silly in three months, but it is what I believe. I think he is terrific and I think he will make a significant difference. That said, they may also want to take their resources in the next draft and another blue-chip edge rusher, because they appear to be short on some talent.
Q: At what point do you give up on Terrance Williams and give Brice Butler a shot? He cost us the first game then disappeared in the second!
I think there is a sign they are headed that way. The weird issue is that they are both pretty much the same age and both in the final year of their deals.
But they need one of the two to step into the Alvin Harper role this year and be the deep threat. They can both do it -- Williams has done it way more -- but the underneath stuff and Dez are squared away. Now they need the big-play guy on the other side for the two or three shots a game. That is the one thing we have not seen yet -- the up-top shot to WR2.
Now, the other thing that showed up Sunday is the S01 package. This has no running backs, one tight end and four wide receivers. This includes both Butler and Williams with Bryant and Beasley. I think it was primarily a second-down look and something that really spreads out the defense. Let's see if they go back to that this week.
Q: Do you think fumbling is an issue that can be corrected in a weeks time or does it progressively get better? Will it be an issue for Zeke against Chicago?
Ezekiel Elliott has no fumble history. I don't think it is the start of one, but you can expect that his next several opponents are going to challenge him now that he has shown it can be stripped. He needs a good game soon or the criticism will increase. The Cowboys were promised the moon with this kid and the first month has not been that.
Q: Scandrick seems to be hurt again, will he ever be back to being the guy that got that big deal or is that too much to ask? ...
Q: Anthony Brown had a pick 6 in preseason, how confident are you in his ability to go out and fill in Scandrick's shoes?
Sort of the same topic here, so let's combine these. Orlando Scandrick has meant a lot to this group, so there is no doubt there is concern about how "right" he is right now. And the prospect of a sixth-rounder just stepping in and filling his shoes seems a bit crazy. I might consider sitting Scandrick for a few weeks to get him healthy if that is the issue. Chicago-San Francisco is the time to do that, because the slot threats are coming afterward.
I like Anthony Brown, but he is several levels down from Scandrick for now. Let's continue to monitor the progress of both players as we go.
Q: What's going on with Rolando McClain, did we ever let him go? and why haven't we let go of Randy Gregory yet?
I don't think we ever see McClain again. I think this is more of a sensitive substance issue that is likely just going to be a headline one day in the random future and that will be that. Gregory is a bit more vague and I won't pretend to have any idea, other than his issues have proven to be far more complex than they imagined when they spent a second-rounder on him.
Q: Do you anticipate the new guy we signed, Ryan Davis, to be active this week and is he a good player that will make a difference?
I do. And given how they played four defensive tackles at the end of the game, I would think he should be able to make some difference. As decent as the D-line looked in that game for me, I will say that I hoped for more in the first few weeks from offseason signings Benson Mayowa and Cedric Thornton. On one hand, the Cowboys are shorthanded and need help, but then the new guys can't get on the field, either? It is all a bit confusing from a personnel standpoint, although I know they are working around Tyrone Crawford and Terrell McClain's performances. Also, Maliek Collins is starting to pop.
Q: Set aside Romo's health and ability to make it through an NFL game/season. Even if he is healthy when he comes back, how rusty is he going to be? He has not played much football in the last 2 years, so I would imagine he will be really rusty for at least a few games. Is the last game he played really well the playoff game in Green Bay?
I am not worried about rust, but I am worried about the first few big hits he takes. I assume so is everyone else. He has been knocked out on about three of the past five big hits he has taken. That won't work in the NFL, where every quarterback gets hit hard twice a game. I think he will be mentally sharp, but I also don't believe the body has many big shots left to handle.
Q: Have we seen enough to know that Prescott's likely floor is an average NFL quarterback? I know sometimes the great ones can struggle early. But are there examples of QBs who have gotten off to a good/great start only to end up failing? (Only QB I can think of in that category is RGIII....)
I did not take the time to find similar cases, but I think Dak Prescott can start in this league. I have already seen plenty to indicate he is a very worthy prospect moving forward, even if Romo does regain his spot for the future.
But, I imagine, things may get interesting around here at the quarterback position in the next several months.Let's do a mailbag!
Before we start, a thought on the Bears. I spent a few hours on them last night and cannot remember a less interesting roster than what Chicago has right now. Yes, they are beat up already, but even at full strength, you are trying to talk yourself into the concept of them being good -- rather than the reality.
In other words, you cannot lose to these guys on Sunday. There are must-win games, and then there are "you will regret this the rest of the year if you let this bunch take a win out of your building" games.
You really should pound them. And I realize the Cowboys are flawed. But, man, Chicago has a ways to go before they get out of picking in the top 10 in the draft.
On to the questions:
Q: Why do you think the Cowboys can't win at home? Jerry didn't buy a 1.3 billion dollar playpen for losses, I have to think...
People wanted solutions and I did not present many because there are no real trends that stick out. Obviously, Tony Romo's attendance record is at the heart of the issue. But then again, that seems like barking at the moon. If the solution to everything is "keep Tony Romo healthy," then we are all wasting a lot of time analyzing the team and, also, maybe quarterback wins are real stats.
Also, Cowboys backup quarterbacks have won games on the road and not at home (for whatever reason), which is a bit more difficult to explain, but the past two trips to Washington were wins by Matt Cassel and Dak Prescott (the only win either of them has ever engineered, so far -- although I bet Prescott gets his first home win on Sunday).
To be honest, it seems to me that there is a real aggressiveness element to the whole story. I think they play to win on the road more often than they do at home, but that requires a fair amount of looking at statistics from a slanted point of view. What I mean is that most play-calling is situation-dependent, therefore, to look at yards or run/pass ratios and offer conclusions can be dangerous.
Romo's record at home since 2009 is 25-18 in the regular season. That is well above 47 percent. In fact, it is above 58 percent. And he is 26-19 on the road since 2009. That is 57 percent. Pretty much identical in either place. So, it might all come down to the backups being 2-12 at home and 5-7 on the road to explain the home form versus the road form. And Romo's body.
Q: Has Jason Garrett turned the corner from being a conservative coach to a gambler or was last week just an exception?
The coaching staff did some very interesting things last week that made us think they are done frustrating us with their extreme conservatism. That includes the incredibly uncharacteristic onside-kick ambush in the third quarter. The man who gave us "you don't lay up at the Masters" has not always lived his quote.
But, I will file this under the "I will need to see more to call this a trend" heading until we see him coaching ruthlessly more often. I think Rod Marinelli also is a guy who fits Garrett's sensibilities very well and we know Scott Linehan does. Let's continue to monitor and home that Coach Conservative breaks his mold, but unfortunately, he is becoming an older dog here in Year 7.
Q: I know everybody is hyping up Morris Claiborne to having this great year but he doesn't have any interceptions and hasn't jumped off the screen much... You think he's doing as good as everybody says?
I think Mo Claiborne is playing some solid football. Not perfect, but much better than what we have seen. He just needs to stay on the field. He has to play. He just has never played as much as he needs to and cornerbacks are all about snap counts. They have to stay on the field or their value is zero.
Look at the snap count difference between Claiborne and Brandon Carr. They both got here in 2012, so they have both had the same number of available snaps. Carr has been in 4,305 plays (all of them) and Claiborne has played in 2,319. That is roughly 54 percent of Carr's total. I have always defended Carr and never defended Claiborne based on this simple idea. Carr may not pick off enough passes and stop enough plays, but he battles and battles for three hours every Sunday. Claiborne has not proven he can be counted upon.
So, we never get to a technique discussion. One is present and one is not. That is why I don't get carried away when Claiborne plays two good games. Call me when he plays a full season (at any level of quality) to prove he is worthy of a monetary investment moving forward.
Q: Is this defensive line good enough to where when Demarcus Lawrence comes back in a couple weeks, he takes it to a decent level or is it a lost cause?
I made the claim in August that DeMarcus Lawrence is going to come back in Week 5 and still get eight sacks. I am that impressed with his progress and how he looked in camp. This may look silly in three months, but it is what I believe. I think he is terrific and I think he will make a significant difference. That said, they may also want to take their resources in the next draft and another blue-chip edge rusher, because they appear to be short on some talent.
Q: At what point do you give up on Terrance Williams and give Brice Butler a shot? He cost us the first game then disappeared in the second!
I think there is a sign they are headed that way. The weird issue is that they are both pretty much the same age and both in the final year of their deals.
But they need one of the two to step into the Alvin Harper role this year and be the deep threat. They can both do it -- Williams has done it way more -- but the underneath stuff and Dez are squared away. Now they need the big-play guy on the other side for the two or three shots a game. That is the one thing we have not seen yet -- the up-top shot to WR2.
Now, the other thing that showed up Sunday is the S01 package. This has no running backs, one tight end and four wide receivers. This includes both Butler and Williams with Bryant and Beasley. I think it was primarily a second-down look and something that really spreads out the defense. Let's see if they go back to that this week.
Q: Do you think fumbling is an issue that can be corrected in a weeks time or does it progressively get better? Will it be an issue for Zeke against Chicago?
Ezekiel Elliott has no fumble history. I don't think it is the start of one, but you can expect that his next several opponents are going to challenge him now that he has shown it can be stripped. He needs a good game soon or the criticism will increase. The Cowboys were promised the moon with this kid and the first month has not been that.
Q: Scandrick seems to be hurt again, will he ever be back to being the guy that got that big deal or is that too much to ask? ...
Q: Anthony Brown had a pick 6 in preseason, how confident are you in his ability to go out and fill in Scandrick's shoes?
Sort of the same topic here, so let's combine these. Orlando Scandrick has meant a lot to this group, so there is no doubt there is concern about how "right" he is right now. And the prospect of a sixth-rounder just stepping in and filling his shoes seems a bit crazy. I might consider sitting Scandrick for a few weeks to get him healthy if that is the issue. Chicago-San Francisco is the time to do that, because the slot threats are coming afterward.
I like Anthony Brown, but he is several levels down from Scandrick for now. Let's continue to monitor the progress of both players as we go.
Q: What's going on with Rolando McClain, did we ever let him go? and why haven't we let go of Randy Gregory yet?
I don't think we ever see McClain again. I think this is more of a sensitive substance issue that is likely just going to be a headline one day in the random future and that will be that. Gregory is a bit more vague and I won't pretend to have any idea, other than his issues have proven to be far more complex than they imagined when they spent a second-rounder on him.
Q: Do you anticipate the new guy we signed, Ryan Davis, to be active this week and is he a good player that will make a difference?
I do. And given how they played four defensive tackles at the end of the game, I would think he should be able to make some difference. As decent as the D-line looked in that game for me, I will say that I hoped for more in the first few weeks from offseason signings Benson Mayowa and Cedric Thornton. On one hand, the Cowboys are shorthanded and need help, but then the new guys can't get on the field, either? It is all a bit confusing from a personnel standpoint, although I know they are working around Tyrone Crawford and Terrell McClain's performances. Also, Maliek Collins is starting to pop.
Q: Set aside Romo's health and ability to make it through an NFL game/season. Even if he is healthy when he comes back, how rusty is he going to be? He has not played much football in the last 2 years, so I would imagine he will be really rusty for at least a few games. Is the last game he played really well the playoff game in Green Bay?
I am not worried about rust, but I am worried about the first few big hits he takes. I assume so is everyone else. He has been knocked out on about three of the past five big hits he has taken. That won't work in the NFL, where every quarterback gets hit hard twice a game. I think he will be mentally sharp, but I also don't believe the body has many big shots left to handle.
Q: Have we seen enough to know that Prescott's likely floor is an average NFL quarterback? I know sometimes the great ones can struggle early. But are there examples of QBs who have gotten off to a good/great start only to end up failing? (Only QB I can think of in that category is RGIII....)
I did not take the time to find similar cases, but I think Dak Prescott can start in this league. I have already seen plenty to indicate he is a very worthy prospect moving forward, even if Romo does regain his spot for the future.
But, I imagine, things may get interesting around here at the quarterback position in the next several months.
