Always the horses, seldom the jockey...
Daily Commentary on the Dallas Sports Scene - By Bob Sturm - Sportsradio 1310, The Ticket - The Athletic Dallas - The Athletic - Bob Sturm
In the interest of touching both ideas properly, allow me to give you initial thoughts on the release of Smith and then try to review the Carolina game as best we can in our allotted space.
We are going to try to get these done more often. You send me your feelings and concerns and I respond with some thoughts and words. Twenty questions can happen as often as you guys like during the season, but let's test drive this car with an Aug. 17 version and see how it goes.
There is no question that if you found something better to do Friday night, you need to not sit in regret. If you burned your sports pass for late last week on a baseball game played in a cornfield, you chose well. There were moments of significance Friday night in Arizona, for sure. Dak Prescott appearing to throw passes in warmups would have to qualify, although another week of not throwing should probably not bother too many people with the Cowboys still having three weeks to prepare.
On Tuesday, we spent a very long time looking back at Jaylon Smith’s 2020 and his challenge to “watch the film” to really dig into what went wrong, why it went wrong and why he was definitely in the vicinity of on-field breakdowns so often.
The Cowboys’ 2020 season was long and disappointing. It ended at Met Life Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on a tiny margin that seemed a proper cap to a season that couldn’t end soon enough.
So much of football is about zooming in on specific strengths and weaknesses and isolating them to diagnose a problem. Were this golf or even baseball, where things do often work in isolation, we would have much more success. But when we examine the 2020 Cowboys defense to seek specific reasons why the team suffered and the defense was often to blame, we come back with an overview that lacks real specifics. They were just really bad. Well, OK. But where were they weakest? Who was bad?
"It happened again Saturday night on #CowboysTwitter, and I guess I just couldn’t resist. I know it is rather unfair, and at this point, we should probably let it go. But debate over the 2016 Cowboys draft — quite possibly the greatest in franchise history, mind you — was raging again.
That is because, despite how great the draft turned out to be, the decisions the Cowboys made in those first two rounds still strike many observers as good enough, but perhaps short of their full potential."
It is pretty difficult to analyze the job of the defense in the 27-7 loss to Atlanta on its own. Honestly, the defense has put together quite a month since the bye week, in which they didn't allowed any of the previous three opponents to get to 20 points or 325 yards of total offense. In dispensing the 49ers, Redskins and Chiefs, the Cowboys started to find their form and it wasn't lost on anyone that the team seemed to feed off the presence of their leader and best player, Sean Lee.
In following the European soccer scene, it is always enjoyable to pick up on the differences in vernacular and the overall way of explaining some components of their game. One thing they routinely use to communicate the meaning of one player to a team's success is the term "talisman," which is defined by Google Dictionary as "an object, typically an inscribed ring or stone, that is thought to have magic powers and to bring good luck."
"So-and-so is our talisman." Without him, we are a different team, but with him, we can conquer the world. I think we should steal it. And, perhaps it best explains the place the Cowboys are currently in. Because clearly, Lee is their talisman.
He left the game after eight defensive snaps Sunday. David Irving was making a fine tackle for loss on this snap when we saw Lee leave the field again:
You can see Lee pull up, realize what just happened, and then walk dejectedly to the sideline as Irving celebrates another monster play from the 3-technique spot.
The Cowboys may have eventually caved the Falcons in Sunday with Lee. That is a good team and at their home, it is a rough place to get a win. But after he left, the trend of the Cowboys not stopping the run was evident.
Atlanta got rolling and scored touchdowns on three of the next four drives as the Cowboys tried to scramble to fill in his gap with Jaylon Smith. They took a chance by not having Justin Durant active and placing a heavy workload on Jaylon Smith put the defense right back where it was against the Rams and Packers -- with some issues at the linebacker position.
Is Lee great? Is Jaylon Smith poor? Both? Somehow, it seems they go from "well above average" to "well below average" with just one man replacing another.
Ugh. It is a staggering reality that, with his strained hamstring, Lee will miss the Philadelphia, LA Chargers and Washington games. They have to make sure he is healthy before they reintroduce him back in. But they are so pedestrian without him.
WEEKLY DATA BOX
Many of the above numbers are about average. Not horrendous, but not good -- 336 yards allowed is about what you would expect in Atlanta. You want to get off the field on third down and in the red zone with more minimal damage, but the Cowboys were very poor -- and Matt Ryan very good -- in these situations.
The Cowboys limited big plays and big damage, but it was death by 1,000 paper cuts as the Falcons just kept moving the chains with only two explosives, one sack allowed and just the one giveaway.
The defense was not helped by a poor offensive effort, and we see that this defense is definitely at its best when protected by a Cowboys offense that takes the game by the scruff of its neck.
Perhaps it is different with Tyron Smith or Ezekiel Elliott. We can speculate. But we know how this team does with or without its talisman. Once Lee left the game, the Falcons took a low-risk approach to success.
MATT RYAN THROW CHART
No real fireworks show. No Julio Jones feeding frenzy. Just spreading out the defense and finding the weak spot to keep moving the chains. This was the Falcons' easy day, with really no need to do anything but hand the Cowboys a rope and wait for them to hang themselves. They complied.
EXPLOSIVES
DEFENSIVE SNAP COUNTS
SPLASH PLAYS - WEEK 10 - ATLANTA
Interestingly enough, as we look at this defensive performance, we will see that the Cowboys "won" a great number of defensive snaps. Ten different plays were tackles for loss and stuffed runs. That is really impressive. But 34 runs mean that on the other 24 snaps, they were over 6 yards per carry. So, not all bad, but not good enough to win.
SPLASH PLAY SEASON TOTALS
Lots of progress and fine play from Anthony Hitchens, which is where we should start in our tape section below. This is a very important development if he is going to be the hope of the team without Lee around for the rest of the month.
Here he meets Tevin Coleman in the hole and Coleman tries to cut back. He isn't going to get anywhere because Irving is waiting, but I just love watching Hitchens (No. 59) see the play, know the play and hit the hole with aggressiveness. There is no indecision or hesitancy, and he is on it. Love to see Hitchens look this good.
Look at this. Here he is again shooting behind a slanting defensive line. Again, it is all there from No. 59. Directness. Explosiveness. He just knows what he is seeing and knows his role to seek and destroy.
Here, DeMarcus Lawrence is demonstrating his own dominance, but I ask you again to lock in on Hitchens and watch him work around the right tackle, who is supposed to have him. He makes No. 73 miss and locks on to the back again with suddenness and real impressive directness. I love this again. Hitchens is all over it.
Here he is on the edge and tied up with a tight end off right tackle. He has to stick with Terron Ward to the edge, so you better have some good speed to get off that blocker and not let Ward turn the corner with his quickness. Again, he has help, but Hitchens is not giving in even though the score is starting to get away. Compete level: high.
One more and I will let it go. Here is Hitchens again taking on a lead fullback, shedding him and making the stop. This is top-level linebacker play as far as I am concerned, and while I admit that losing Lee hurts plenty, I think you can find encouragement in that Hitchens appears to have developed to where he can really help you and not be a guy you need to worry about anymore. Except that he may need a new contract, because I don't think you want to lose him in the spring.
Now on to some other plays. Here is Lawrence taking over the lead league in sacks. Who thought you would be saying that in November? The strength in his rush is just difficult for any tackle to handle. It is remarkable what he has turned into.
Here is another sign that this defense is quite good up front. Here is Maliek Collins (No. 96) and Irving (95) beating their guys at the point of attack and getting into the backfield, where Irving ends another play. How soon before we start talking about him among the best 3-techniques in the sport? I wonder. He has developed so fast. Ryan Schraeder (No. 73) is having a rough day.
You probably saw this on TV. Jaylon Smith (No. 54) looks way out of sorts here. Not only does he not fill the gap that is the point of attack, but he also takes out Hitchens. This is a rather simple zone run to that side and I have to have a linebacker in that spot. Hitchens is still busting his tail to get there, but Coleman is through the hole and into the secondary. Not great. Irving looks like he got held here, too, but that is seldom called on a run between the tackles.
Here, a run to the outside exposes Taco Charlton (No. 97) getting sucked inside and upfield, Jaylon Smith hung up in traffic, and then poor tackling on the corner by the defensive backs. My issue with Jaylon Smith here is that the right guard is supposed to block him and he never really even has to touch him because Smith is too slow to react. You just can't have linebackers trailing a play like this so badly unless they are getting blocked. He has to navigate through traffic here and it certainly isn't easy, but it is the job.
Here is another run that is blocked really well by Atlanta. Can Jaylon Smith do more here with the tight end to get off the block and at least slow the flow before the play gets out into space? Byron Jones is the first defensive back on the scene and you can see how the Falcons love to run out of 11 Personnel and empty that box down to just six defenders, where they can really isolate any weak link they perceive.
This looks like man coverage and, yes, this looks like it is probably another attack on Jaylon Smith, as the tight end comes across the flow of the play to get into space and race for the pylon.
Here is the end-zone view. It isn't any better from this view. The speed difference is rather staggering.
Here is another. Right up the gut. Tough to see exactly what is causing each of these busts specifically as 11 guys all have jobs to do. But it is clear what opponents want to attack the moment Lee goes away, and it is clear how it gets fixed the moment he steps on the field.
*****
You get the idea. You also know I am a massive fan of Jaylon Smith's and seeing his story develop into something great. But not having Durant active turned into a real big deal Sunday. Lee is out now, and Hitchens and Durant working together may be the Cowboys' only hope of keeping this train on the tracks for the rest of November.
Dallas Cowboys middle linebacker Sean Lee (50) enters the field for warm ups before a National Football League game between the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California Sunday October 22, 2017. (Andy Jacobsohn/The Dallas Morning News)
Marinelli Report
I am sure the Cowboys would love to play an offense like the 49ers every single week. That would make defending a heck of a lot easier than some of the more challenging offenses they have and will face in 2017.
That can't become a reality -- not in this league. But perhaps the next best thing is simply having their parts on the field all at the same time.
Sunday marked the very first time we saw the best options at all of the defensive line and linebacker positions in the same game at the same time. Now, as we very well know, part of football is dealing with attrition, "next man up" and no excuses. That is absolutely what championship teams are made of, and why football is a unique sport with no equal to its marathon of damaged bodies and teams' abilities to carry on.
But to see linebackers Anthony Hitchens and Sean Lee side by side for the first time this season with David Irving and DeMarcus Lawrence in front of them demonstrates how this defense is different than the one that went to Denver or the one that was exposed by Jared Goff and the Rams just a few weeks ago. Now, can they keep the pieces together? Anyone who saw Lee limping in the second half is hoping for the best and fearing the worst. This is a violent game that takes an amazing toll on those who play it. But if they can stay healthy, perhaps this defense is better than we know.
They were hardly tested Sunday. Yes, the defense showed a few moments of vulnerability, but the fact is that the 49ers were playing a rookie quarterback who had never started at this level before. C.J. Beathard may turn into something, but in this game he didn't show many signs of a long and decorated career. The Cowboys were able to get five sacks on a guy who looked rather confused about what he was looking at and would hang on to the ball at a level that would be hazardous to his health.
There are plenty of issues with this defense and what they need to do to is pull their own weight over the next few months, but we should also be aware that they are doing some things at a level we haven't seen in quite some time.
They are creating negative plays for their opponents at a very high rate. Very high. Sacks and tackles for losses are near the top of the NFL. Third in negative plays and first in the NFC in this stat. They have backed up their opponents 242 yards so far in just six games. They have have a game in hand on several opponents and now sit just out of the top five with 21 sacks in six games. When have you seen the Cowboys' defense be capable of averaging 3.5 sacks per game?
So, yes, there are some things to worry about. But let's also recognize that they are generating negative plays that put their opponents in second- and third-and-long situations. This is a very good development of a defense that is accused of never making plays. And if they are going to take the ball away when the sacks occur, now we have something to work with. Below, we will look at some video of Hitchens and Lee together against the run and it will likely make you consider whether the Rams and Packers would have had the same success had they both been on the field. Can't change the past, but it can absolutely impact the future.
WEEKLY DATA BOX
Can we play you every week? Under 300 yards, 10 points, five sacks, low time of possession and just one explosive play allowed. When your opponent gets into your red zone just twice in a game and you take the ball away on one of those trips, you really had a nice day.
Now, we won't get carried away because the opponent was admittedly very weak, but you can only play the opponent in front of you.
C.J. BEATHARD THROW CHART
Beathard and the 49ers didn't have much success, but they did have more to the defense's left side, which suggests we should start tracking more of the corners. Moving forward, we will try to get a sense of whether or not the young corners are better off deployed to either side. I do know Anthony Brown has been attacked quite a bit this season and is a player with some limitations. He has played a lot, and the Cowboys already have redeemed plenty of value from the 2016 draft pick, but I am curious what his ideal role will be going forward.
Below, please see that the Cowboys started bringing extra pressure Sunday. I think this is opponent-based for the most part, as the 49ers proved they didn't deal with it very well, so you keep calling it. I do not believe this will carry over to Washington, where Kirk Cousins has generally been quite good against blitzing. More of a one-week blip, I should think.
WEEKLY BLITZ RATES
SPLASH PLAYS
Twenty-three splash plays -- the second most since we started recording them six seasons ago. They had 24 last season against Tampa Bay in another big day for Irving. We also had the rare three-splash play day from Lawrence, which we will look at below:
SPLASH PLAY TOTALS - SEASON
It is clearly a race for second place now, as our soon-to-be-champion, Lawrence, just keeps dominating.
We love looking at video of the good and the bad. Well, there was almost no bad (I will spare you the Jeff Heath missed tackle play), so we can focus on a number of very nice negative plays forced by this athletic and aggressive defense from their day in Santa Clara:
We have seen a few weeks of poor linebacker play against the run, so let's look at some textbook work here of seeing the play, shooting the gap like a heat-seeking missile and ending it on the other side of the line before the ballcarrier can get upfield on you. Welcome Lee and his ability that combines great athleticism with knowing plays from the snap and diagnosing them as well as anyone we have seen in a Cowboys uniform. This is wonderful. Nobody else could do this in his absence.
The best defensive line on third downs is pretty clearly Lawrence (No. 90) at left defensive end, Maliek Collins (No. 96) at left defensive tackle, Irving (No. 95) at right defensive tackle and Tyrone Crawford (No. 98) at right defensive end. Well, here it is, and you see how active everyone is until Irving breaks through to get the sack. He is absurdly athletic and long for a defensive tackle and remains a force against any guard or center.
You get a couple of guys inside who attract attention, then you allow your ends to have a chance against tight ends or running backs -- or both. This time, Crawford gets home (he is coming to life!) and buries poor Beathard on this play. You have four active linemen, and suddenly someone will find a tasty opportunity.
We don't often give one player three splashes on one play -- in fact, I can't recall ever doing it before. But if Lawrence is going to get a sack (one), force a fumble (two), and then recover that fumble (three), I think it is appropriate. That is five-time Pro Bowler Joe Staley he just danced and worked around with such ease. Lawrence takes 49ers points of the board with a dominating individual effort. The man is in the zone.
Early third quarter, this is another tackle for loss from Lee. Unfortunately, here he is using his quad to make the tackle and this is certainly where the limp came from. Great anticipation to find the hole and the runner on third and 3, but using your leg to make the tackle might be hazardous for your health, Sean.
Here is the Jaylon Smith we have been looking for. Put him in good situations and keep him out of bad ones. Second and 4 is a great spot to bring him on a blitz and allow him to attack going forward. This looks like the Notre Dame version of the young man, and now with the starters back, we can stop putting him in third-down spots where he can get attacked. Like I have said, he has been an issue, but the blame should be on not having a plan in the event that Lee or Hitchens got hurt (or both). I still think Smith can be a real factor moving forward.
These last several plays are all Hitchens. He is about to become a free agent and we originally thought they would let him walk, allowing Smith to take his spot. This season has me wondering about the wisdom behind that premise and whether the Cowboys are thinking the same. You can't go back and change your previous moves, but perhaps we should consider thinking hard about future moves based on new information. The information is that Lee and Hitchens together look awesome. And there are no replacements at the present time who can replicate this. Let's watch No. 59 for a few snaps:
Here he comes on a linebacker pressure but is able to change course and get to the running back behind the line of scrimmage in a demonstration of impressive ability for a tackle for loss.
Here he looks like Lee (who is right behind him), diagnosing, shooting the gap and beating his blocker to make the play. That right there is some awesome work.
And here, he is not the only player who made this happen, but goodness gracious, coming from that far away to end the play at the opposite sideline is what we hoped Smith would bring to the table. He still may, but right now, the sudden difference that the return of Lee and Hitchens made against lateral running plays is simply astounding.
I look forward to that duo continuing its fine work in the weeks to come.
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