Final Playoff Seeding Numbers

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/01/sturm-is-home-field-advantage.html

- Home Field Advantage -

This table simply tracks the success or lack thereof of higher seeds and home teams in the NFL Playoffs. The AFC and NFC Seeds columns show which teams advanced to the AFC and NFC Championship Games. Then the "*" shows who made the Super Bowl from each conference.

Lots of trends in here, including the #1 seed in the NFC has advanced to the Championship game in 18 of 21 years since the playoffs expanded. The only 3 teams not to get there were the 2007 Dallas Cowboys, the 2008 New York Giants, and the 2010 Atlanta Falcons.

Also, the 2010 playoffs have had home teams win just 4 of the 10 games. So much for home field advantage, right? 4-6 is tied for the worst record for home field of this era, with the 2005 year. And of course 2005 and 2010 have something else in common; the only 2 times a 6-seed has been able to win 3 consecutive road games to get to the Super Bowl. The 2005 Steelers did it (and then also won the Super Bowl) and now the 2010 Green Bay Packers.

Year	Home Record	AFC Seeds	NFC Seeds
1990	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
1991	8-2	1* vs 2	1* vs 2
1992	5-5	2 vs 4*	1 vs 2*
1993	8-2	1* vs 3	1* vs 2
1994	8-2	1 vs 2*	1* vs 2
1995	7-3	2* vs 5	1* vs 3
1996	8-2	2* vs 5	1* vs 2
1997	6-4	2 vs 4*	1 vs 2*
1998	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
1999	7-3	1 vs 4*	1* vs 2
2000	8-2	2 vs 4*	1* vs 2
2001	7-3	1 vs 2*	1* vs 3
2002	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
2003	6-4	1* vs 3	1 vs 3*
2004	6-4	1 vs 2*	1* vs 2
2005	4-6	2 vs 6*	1* vs 5
2006	8-2	3* vs 4	1* vs 2
2007	5-5	1* vs 3	2 vs 5*
2008	5-5	2* vs 6	4* vs 6
2009	7-3	1* vs 5	1* vs 2
2010	4-6	2* vs 6	2 vs 6*

Table Tutorial

(* = Super Bowl Team)

Most compelling piece of information I found here? 14 of 21 years (67%), in the NFC, the championship game has been the #1 seed vs the #2 seed - proving the bye week and home field mean something.

The NFC had only 2 home teams win playoff games. The Seahawks, at 7-9, took down the defending Super Bowl Champions Saints and the Bears beat that same 8-9 Seahawks team.

In the AFC, 1 vs 2 it has happened only 7 times (33%). Not sure what that means other than the fact that maybe the NFC has had better top seeds that make it less likely to have upsets - like the Cowboys and 49ers. On the other hand, maybe the AFC has had many playoffs where top to bottom the margin is very close. No clue, but this year, the home teams in the AFC were 2-3, with the Steelers being the only home team to win a home game - and they did it twice.

So, the AFC sends its #2 seed to Arlington to play the NFC #6. Given the superior track record of the AFC in inter-conference play, that should mean that everyone is on Pittsburgh, right? Well, Green Bay has opened as a 2.5 point favorite.