2014 Playoff Drought Update

Today is Opening Day in Major League Baseball.  It is a day of enthusiasm around the sport and the highest water mark of hope springing eternal for the 30 major league franchises.  That will last for about another few hours and then the party will dissipate rather early for many teams as their weaknesses begin to bubble up to the surface.

For the Rangers, this is not likely to be the case (at least early in the year), but it has been a historic spring training where the usual over-reaction to every negative piece of news has not really felt like an over-reaction because the cumulative total of the news has actually been quite disheartening.

What started as merely Derek Holland and his dog falling on the stairs (60 Day DL, Knee Surgery) has added up into stress regarding Harrison, Lewis, Profar, Andrus, Soto, and yes, even the indestructible baseball cyborg named Darvish.

Nevertheless, the Rangers are considered a contender as we open the season today to the AL West crown and to return to the post-season after a 1-year (feels more like 2 years given the 1 game of 2012 - JOE SAUNDERS!!!!!) absence.  That can go south in a hurry if health doesn't start cooperating, but at least for now, take heart, everybody.

Now, what about the area colleagues?

Well, on the morning of Opening Day, The Dallas Stars are said to have a 63% chance of making the playoffs with 8 games left to play according to various computer simulations.  They are a young and exciting team with what appears to be a very bright future, but whether this might be the year they can get back in the playoffs and keep their drought from reaching 6 playoff years remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, the last champions from our fair city, the Dallas Mavericks wake up this morning with a 79% chance of getting in (thanks to the Phoenix Suns losing last night) and appear to have a pretty good chance of making sure their one year out of the playoffs doesn't become two in a row.  They have been the model of quality for over a decade (never leave us and never get old, Dirk) and while we don't have a great idea of what the future holds with the Mavericks like we might with the Stars, they have certainly earned the benefit of the doubt due to their reputation and their owner who likes losing about as much as he likes referees.

The Cowboys are the Cowboys and therefore to say they won't make the playoffs is ridiculous because they have been playing for the post-season in each of the last 3 years in the final game, but they have also lost all 3 of those final games and therefore, to say they will make the playoffs is equally ridiculous.  They are close enough to be in the mix, but far enough to be a punchline as well.

8-8.  But, as you can see, with one more missed postseason this fall, they will equal the 1986-1990 drought that is the longest since the franchise first made the playoffs back in 1966.  That, for one of the proudest franchises in the business, is clearly a very poor sign of what is to come, and with an aging Tony Romo it is tough to say there is a bright future straight ahead.

I have been tracking these numbers for quite a while, but not since 2013.  So, below is a chart that runs from 1994 until today. Why 1994?  Because that was the first time our city had a team in each of the "Big 4" sports.  Since then, every year at least one of the big 4 would be in the post-season.  Until 2013.

In 2013, the Mavs, Rangers, Stars, and Cowboys all fell just short of their respective post-seasons.  Take a look:

Year	Cowboys	Stars	Mavericks	Rangers
1994	NFC Champ	2nd Round	Missed	NO PLAYOFFS
1995	NFL Champions	1st Round	Missed	Missed
1996	2nd Round	Missed	Missed	1st Round
1997	Missed	1st Round	Missed	Missed
1998	1st Round	3rd Round	Missed	1st Round
1999	1st Round	NHL Champions	Missed	1st Round
2000	Missed	Lost in Finals	Missed	Missed
2001	Missed	2nd Round	2nd Round	Missed
2002	Missed	Missed	2nd Round	Missed
2003	1st Round	2nd Round	3rd Round	Missed
2004	Missed	1st Round	1st Round	Missed
2005	Missed	NO SEASON	2nd Round	Missed
2006	1st Round	1st Round	Lost in Finals	Missed
2007	1st Round	1st Round	1st Round	Missed
2008	Missed	3rd Round	1st Round	Missed
2009	2nd Round	Missed	2nd Round	Missed
2010	Missed	Missed	1st Round	Lost in W Series
2011	Missed	Missed	NBA Champions	Lost in W Series
2012	Missed	Missed	1st Round	Wildcard
2013	Missed	Missed	Missed	Missed
2014
Totals	9 of 20	13 of 19	12 of 20	6 of 19

Now, in 2014, the Stars and Mavericks look like they have a solid chance of breaking this drought, but I am not sure with 2 weeks to play that anyone is willing to bet on it.  At best, it looks like #8 seeds and that could be a playoff time and over within a week.  But, of course, the whole point of all of this is supposed to be getting in and seeing if you can get on that Cinderella run.  Not overly realistic, but since the #8 seed Los Angeles Kings won the Cup, then there is always that chance.

So, after a historically bad 2013, they are trying collectively to rebound in 2014.  We won't hold our collective breath just yet, but with the Stars, Mavericks, Rangers, and Cowboys all on the fringe, the odds of going 0 for 4 again aren't great, but also aren't impossible.

This is the longest city-wide drought since the Big 4 have all been here.  Will it end this month?