Decoding Linehan - Week 11 - Washington

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Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant (88) celebrates a catch during the fourth quarter of their game against the Washington Redskins on Thursday, November 24, 2016 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. (Ashley Landis/The Dallas Morning News)

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

This was a paragraph from Friday's Morning After column: 

 

It was another dominant and efficient offensive performance. The Cowboys balanced their offense with 5.4 yards per run and 7.6 yards per pass. They converted third downs at 50 percent but also played well enough that they hardly ever encountered third downs. On their first three touchdown drives, they never had a single third-down situation. Not one!

They did not get to 400 yards but still were able to win a game without their defense getting much footing all day long and simply looking by the end of the game as if their offense was just unstoppable.

This is beginning to look like more than a trend. This looks like reality. The Cowboys score on more than half of their drives - an incredible NFL rarity - and they do so with a balanced offense that is as efficient as it is powerful.  

The beat goes on for another week and the league rankings indicate the power as the Cowboys rank near the top of all of the major categories.

Yards Per Game: 4th

Yards Per Play: 4th

Rush Yards Per Game: 2nd

Rush Yards Per Play: 3rd

Pass Yards Per Game: 16th

Pass Yards Per Play: 2nd

Interception Rate: 2nd

Sacks Per Pass Attempt: 6th

First Downs Per Game: 2nd

Third Down Conversions: 3rd

Red Zone Conversions: 6th

Average Time of Possession: 1st

Points Per Game: 3rd

You won't find another offense in the league with that consistent a stat line.  It is borderline absurd.

WEEKLY DATA

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My favorite part of looking at the data box above is knowing that while the accomplishments on 3rd down and in the red zone are exceptionally efficient, the fact is that the production there represents one of the less impressive weeks of the season.

Yes, that is correct. You may pinch yourself. Thanksgiving was both an amazing show of force from the Rookie RB/QB tandem and also a "down week" in some regard. Absurd.  

Just look at the drive chart. Maybe what kept them below 400 yards was the concession from Jay Gruden that the Redskins needed to get desperate with decisions that gave the Cowboys shorter fields. This kept the yardage down, but not the points.  

They have demonstrated that they will punt about once per half this season. Then, they will score 3-4 touchdowns and tack on a field goal or two. If you want to beat this offense, it is up to you to figure out how to match that. This is why teams don' t even bother running the ball. They are too desperate to try to assume they can run the ball. They need points.  

DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART

Down below, I want to look at some of these throws. The throw charts have been consistent this season in decision making from Prescott. Throw away from numbers.  

PERSONNEL GROUPINGS

Again, more of the same. 11 Personnel is what this team produces out of and makes you declare how you plan to stop this running game. 11 Personnel is almost always going to be Elliott at RB, with Witten, Beasley, Williams, and Bryant. This grouping requires at least five DBs because you want - at worst - a safety up top and then man coverage on each of the four receivers. Also, you better not try to match up a linebacker on Elliott, because he will run right by him, so the defense often will go dime. That means six defensive backs, of course, and this then means you only have five "bigs" left. Often, they try to stay nickel and use four DL and two LBs because they know if they go dime, then the Cowboys will run the ball right down their throat.

This is what I mean when I suggest that the defense cannot be right. Whichever they choose, Linehan and Dak go the other way. They are just playing probabilities. With these odds, we think we can have this much success. You go dime, we run. You go nickel, we pass into man coverage all day and we think we have guys who can win against man.  

Then, on third down, they stay in man coverage because they are worried about Dak and Zeke getting to the sticks with either a scramble, a dump down, or some other play when the WRs/TEs clear out the underneath options. It really ties a defense in knots. Even on third down!

Don't believe me? Let's watch this play out:

3rd and 8 from early in the 2nd Quarter. The Cowboys know they are seeing man coverage because Washington is trying to get pressure. 5-man blitz and a 6th man is spying Dak/waiting for Zeke. This leaves 5 defenders in the secondary and when Dak sees the safety he KNOWS it is man coverage. This is simple when you know the coverage.

Now, a series of crossers and he just has to hit his target. He chooses Dez (Williams was open, too). 1st down.  

This is 3rd and 14. The league averages 20% on 3rd and 10+. So, you are supposed to have a 1 in 5 chance at converting this.  He makes maybe his best throw of the year to Cole Beasley on a corner route that has a small window with a receiver with a tiny catch radius. Dart.

The protection is wonderful. That is absolutely the best component of this offense and I don't want that to get lost.  Ask any of these other NFC teams that have playoff aspirations and they will tell you that the Dallas pass protection provides an unfair advantage. They are right. This is unfair. But, that doesn't mean this throw is easy.  This is a very big-league throw. And he made it look simple.  

Here is the dagger. 3rd and 9 here. This time, the protection requires Dak to take some evasive action. By this point, he believes he can make any throw on the field. And here he proves it.  

I mean, are you kidding me? He is running to his right. He is about to get hit. And he takes the deep shot on 3rd and 9 to the goal-line. Dez has to go up to get it and is brought down before the line, but this is not what a bus driver would do. This is a play-maker throw. By a guy who knows what coverage he will see every time and knows how to take advantage of these favorable matchups down the field.

To those who think that any QB makes these throws, you are kidding yourself. As much as I love Tony Romo, the simple reality here is that Prescott forces you to bring players up to stop his legs and that means he almost always sees man coverage behind it. A QB with lesser feet and/or durability sees more complex coverages because he is not a running threat. It is simple math. The legs make your throws easier.  

So, 3rd and 9, 3rd and 7, 3rd and 14, and 3rd and 8. All converted and all vital throws, save for the one time that Prescott used his feet to run for it. Another 50% day for your rookie QB.

This was his stiff-arm in the second quarter. He knows he can do this now.  

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Superlatives are now routine for this offense.  

Back to Friday's Column for the wrap-up:

I don't know how many more ways to describe these games, because at times, it is exactly what we have been calling it in this space for weeks. 

"Repeatable and sustainable." 

There is nothing fluky about this offensive power. There is something familiar about it, though. It has opponents looking as flustered as they used to appear against the old "Triplets" 25 years back. 

They have a long ways to go to get into that conversation, but they definitely seem to be standing on the gas and going as fast as they can to get there.

They are now into December with fresh challenges yet to come. I can't wait to see what Minnesota does to try to slow down this train and what the Cowboys do to try to keep that from happening. This will be a tremendous test.

The Morning After - Cowboys 31, Redskins 26 (10-1)

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Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) celebrates a touchdown during the first quarter of their game against the Washington Redskins on Thursday, November 24, 2016 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. (Ashley Landis/The Dallas Morning News)

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

The Morning After

We continue to be amazed.

 

It is difficult to articulate how far the reality of the 2016 season has strayed from the projections of the summer -- especially once the veteran quarterback was injured in Seattle (which was after
the veteran backup was injured in Oxnard). But, know this: the premise of owning one defeat as the calendar turns to December seemed about as far-fetched as it gets.

And yet, here we are.

The Cowboys no longer are a surprise this season. They now are squarely on the radar of teams that could play in Houston on February 5. As insane as that idea seemed four months ago, we may as well admit the reality. The Cowboys are one of the very rare teams in the league right now that look like they may be very difficult to take down.

It once again played out before our eyes on Thanksgiving Day, when the Washington Redskins had to feel pretty good about the effort they were able to produce, yet always looked like the second-best team on the field. In losing 31-26, the Redskins can take solace in the fact that they traded body blows with Dallas for much of the afternoon, but most every close viewer of the proceedings would leave with the same conclusion: Dallas was always going to leave with the "W."

They are simply that good.

Not on defense, mind you. For the third straight week, the Cowboys' defense looked like a side running out of steam. They are starting to suffer from more focused attacks on portions of their defense that look vulnerable and, frankly, are proving to be just that. This time, it was Kirk Cousins continuing his fantastic statistical season with another gem, 449 yards through the air and three touchdowns. That was the most yards allowed since Matthew Stafford lit up the Cowboys' secondary for 488 in that forgettable Monte Kiffin season of 2013. That day, Megatron had 300 yards receiving himself. But, on this afternoon, it was a rotation of several different Redskins targets who found space -- even against eight defenders in the secondary (thanks to another three-man rush) -- with four different receivers logging at least 68 yards.

Surely there will come a point when the offense cannot save the bacon of a defense that has now gone a full month without a takeaway. On Thursday, they did something truly rare and historic:

The Redskins lost this game in which they had over 500 yards and no turnovers. According to our friends at ProFootballReference.com, the all-time record for teams to pull off the double of 500 and no turnovers is 89-5. The somewhat ironic add-on to the fact that they are only the fifth team to do it would be that another one of those losses also happened on a Thanksgiving Day in Dallas. It was 1998, when the Cowboys had 500 yards (mostly from Troy Aikman slinging the ball around the field for a record day) and still lost by 10 points to the Minnesota Vikings' aerial attack that was unstoppable.

Added: The above stat sorted another way: 500 yards, zero turnovers and zero sacks mean the all-time record is 32-2. The only two times an offense hit all three of those markers and lost were Thanksgiving 1998 and Thanksgiving 2016, both in Dallas. In NFL history. And both winners, the 1998 Vikings and the 2016 Cowboys, were then 11-1 and 10-1, respectively.

This game had a similar feel to that one.

When neither defense looks particularly powerful, sometimes a great offensive day isn't enough to be victorious. Ask Washington this morning.

The 1998 Vikings did eventually stall out. They were a 15-1 team that fell short of the Lombardi Trophy by losing in the NFC Championship Game on a missed kick. The 2007 New England Patriots and 2013 Denver Broncos both lost in the Super Bowl after seasons when their offenses appeared to have no equals.

The fact that this sport decides its outcomes on a series of one-game showdowns demonstrates that there is no room for errors when the stakes are raised. But, to be mentioned in that group requires an offense that will be remembered and can make its rivals beg for mercy by the end of a day. The 2016 Dallas Cowboys offense seems to have similarities. For when they get the ball, it seems like they are always going to get points soon thereafter.

Yesterday, there were no overly gaudy statistics. In fact, they fell short of 400 yards of total offense for the first time since the week after they were last defeated (Sept. 18). Washington did a nice job of attempting to keep the Dallas offense off the field as much as possible. For instance, the Cowboys only had about 13 minutes of possession in each half. There were but seven Dallas snaps in the third quarter.

But, throughout the day, it was another dominant and efficient offensive performance. The Cowboys balanced their offense with 5.4 yards per run and 7.6 yards per pass. They converted third downs at 50 percent but also played well enough that they hardly ever encountered third downs. On their first three touchdown drives, they never had a single third-down situation. Not one!

The line protected their quarterback and Dak Prescott continued to do what he does best -- move the offense up and down the field and keep the ball out of danger. Does he miss a few opportunities in doing so? Yes. He missed Dez Bryant streaking down the field for a touchdown and he missed Brice Butler in the end zone. He doesn't throw perfect games.

But what he does do with great routine is extend plays, which then extend drives. He moves the chains and takes the team down the field. He seldom misses throws when he must have them. And most importantly, the ball is almost never risked. There are many quarterbacks -- including those we have enjoyed in Dallas -- who are great at what they do but risk giving the opposition a chance to take the ball away. This quarterback has now thrown 340 passes in his 11 professional starts and has had two intercepted.

The number of throws that have been close to becoming interceptions also has been near zero. There was one yesterday that had a chance to get picked off, but even that one first bounced off Bryant's hands. In other words, Prescott did his job. Either he hits his target or he misses safely. And that means, over the course of time, he can win games for you without offering the equal opportunity of losing games for you.

And that leads to a frustrated defense. They already know there is very little to be done against the Cowboys' running game as Ezekiel Elliott, behind this offensive line, is going to be a load to defend in any situation. But now you have a perfect complement at quarterback, in that he can beat you with throws or his feet. Add to that this Aikman-like ability to never flirt with an interception, it seems, and you come up with the recipe that had Washington rolling the dice.

They try a field goal from deep because they feel they must. Once it missed, the Cowboys get a short field.

They try an onside kick because they feel they must. They don't get it, and the Cowboys get another short field.

They feel compelled to do these things because they know they are behind and find it difficult to imagine getting a stop. This is the same reason opponents quickly abandon a running game.

The noose keeps tightening. Prescott and Elliott show no mercy. Bryant, Jason Witten, Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams take turns moving the chains. The scoreboard keeps going up and the clock keeps running out.

I don't know how many more ways to describe these games, because at times, it is exactly what we have been calling it in this space for weeks.

"Repeatable and sustainable."

There is nothing fluky about this offensive power. There is something familiar about it, though. It has opponents looking as flustered as they used to appear against the old "Triplets" 25 years back.

They have a long ways to go to get into that conversation, but they definitely seem to be standing on the gas and going as fast as they can to get there.

Dallas is 10-1 and welcoming all challenges.

December awaits

Marinelli Report - Week 10 - Baltimore

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Dallas Cowboys defensive tackle David Irving (95) pressures Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (5) in the fourth quarter during the Baltimore Ravens vs. the Dallas Cowboys NFL football game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Sunday, November 20, 2016. (Louis DeLuca/The Dallas Morning News)

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

Marinelli Report

It's a short week, so therefore, in the interest of time, we will probably make this a shorter version of our weekly check-in with the defense.

 

I think it is still a fair and reasonable question to wonder just how good the Cowboys' defense really is in 2016. We have seen very good signs at different times this season -- including Sunday. They get off the field in rather short order. They allow fewer than 17 points. They did not allow Baltimore to dictate the proceedings like Pittsburgh did for stretches.

But there are some potentially problematic indicators of the defense's direction that we should not ignore. For instance:

• They now are sliding back in takeaways again. At the moment, they are tied for 23rd in takeaways with 10. There are just six defenses that have taken the ball away fewer times than the Cowboys and they don't have a takeaway since the Philadelphia game. Interception rate is now all the way down to 30th.
• Sacks also are regressing. After an uptick for many weeks, the past two weeks again have been rather quiet, which finds them tied for 19th and sliding back to the bottom third of the league again. Sacks per pass attempt is down to 24th.
• Opponents' yards per game is holding strong, but opponents' yards per play is not. At 23rd, they are exactly the same as a Washington defense that is widely regarded as poor but does not have the benefit of being protected by its offense.
• The Cowboys' run defense may actually be poor. Per play, they are 21st in the league. But per game, they are third. The reason? No team in the NFL has faced fewer run plays than the Cowboys. They have faced 199 runs all season -- the next best is 224. Nobody runs against the Cowboys. Especially after halftime. Why? Because in the second half, you are passing to get back in the game. And overall, you are running the fewer plays.

So basically, the recipe is working. Have an offense so good that the defense never has to actually prove how good it really is. We should also admit that there is some level of "only regular season" component to this, in that you do get to play opponents in the regular season that are easier to manipulate. One would assume that in January, you will actually have to pass some quality tests on both sides of the ball. Then again, besides Seattle, who in the NFC has that full squad?

WEEKLY DATA BOX - RAVENS

Here we go with the weekly view of the sum totals. Third-down success for the defense (anything under 40 percent is a very nice day), explosive plays are back in a reasonable range and time of possession is A-plus. But again, no takeaways and one sack suggest that it's tough to call this a good defense as much as it is a protected defense.

In no way am I trying to play the role of contrarian or harsh your buzz, because they are 9-1 and this seemingly is working quite well. Two weeks ago, I suggested this defense is exceeding expectations, but it was under the premise that the offense is basically playing defense. If we are going to have conversations about just the defense without heaping praise on the offense again, we should probably look reality in the face and wonder how much better this defense is than the 2015 version. The reality is starting to appear to suggest there is almost no difference whatsoever, except the massive question of exposure.

And that is the trick the team is playing very well.

JOE FLACCO THROW CHART  

As you can see, teams want to go after Anthony Brown deep, but to his credit, he is fighting his tail off. I really have enjoyed the tenacity of this rookie. Also, most of their yardage came on inside routes across the middle. The reason we don't mind those as much is that they bring many more defenders back into play to corral and tackle the receiver. Plays on the edge are far more dangerous, of course, for just the opposite reason.

Let's look at some tape for a moment or two. I wanted to look at those three big runs the Ravens broke off in the first half, and then wonder why they stopped running the ball altogether after doing that.

It's 20 personnel for the Ravens. Three wide receivers put the Cowboys in nickel, which, as math teaches us, leaves six "bigs" with four defensive linemen and two linebackers to deal with a potential run. That means if the fullback can get his own guy, you have six on six in the box and likely will need someone to win, or a defensive back will have to make the tackle.

Cedric Thornton -- No. 92 -- gets double-teamed by the center/guard and that provides the cutback lane. Anthony Hitchens, who has really struggled against the run (which may not really be his fault because he clearly is their best option, or they would have found another one by now -- get well soon, Jaylon Smith), is the free man here and he again over-pursues and appears to take himself out of the play. He has to mirror the running back and be there for a cutback, but that is not something he has proven to do very well.

Next play -- 11 personnel. Same numbers situation. This time, DeMarcus Lawrence is unblocked, but the Ravens use a fake end-around to hold him in place, which allows the running back to get through. Once he does, look at their awesome guard, Marshal Yanda (No. 73), wall off  big Terrell McClain after the center chips him over and then goes and gets Hitchens, too. This is very well blocked. It also doesn't help that Anthony Brown is unaware of what is happening and the safeties are really deep because of the three receivers. Running out of 11 personnel is a very good tool in today's NFL. There is so much more space.

Next play, and you can see the Cowboys are now confused. Here is another well-blocked inside run with a pulling guard and a lead fullback. The running back sets the delay with his feet and allows his guys to get the timing right inside, and once J.J. Wilcox gets his angles wrong, the play is in the end zone.

The Ravens look like a really good running team in this sequence and shredded the Cowboys' defensive front. The Cowboys made some adjustments after this, but the biggest one seems to be that the Ravens got away from this altogether.

Now, here are a few of the key plays in the second half to get off the field. You must make third-down stops to cover all sorts of smaller issues.

This is the very nice breakup by Anthony Brown on a comeback route to Mike Wallace. The questions here are to look at the pass rush (or lack thereof) and ask question, "How big of a hole would Joe Flacco need to just run for it?" That all said, Brown made a real nice play here on third down and this is what he needs to do to avoid being targeted more.

And then, later in the third, the Cowboys got off the field again when Wilcox, in a Cover-2 shell, wrecks a crossing pattern to Wallace and doesn't get this angle wrong. Direct hit.

Wilcox is certainly a controversial figure in Cowboys' fandom, but nobody hits harder. He seems to be a box safety asked to try to play in space, but you have to love the aggression.

WEEK 11 - SPLASH PLAYS - RAVENS

And look who had a big day again -- David Irving! It's a pretty nice trick for the guy who is tied for 17th in defensive snaps to be at the top of your splash-play chart after 10 games, right? Well, behold:

SEASON TOTALS - SPLASH PLAYS 

I have said it before and I will say it again: I have no idea why David Irving doesn't play more. He has 203 snaps this season. That is 426 fewer than Sean Lee. I am not saying he should be up that high, but guys, let's split the difference!

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

The summary is this: They have taken a step back defensively since losing two key components. Both may return, so that is good news. Otherwise, know that Kirk Cousins just destroyed Green Bay's silly secondary and will have deep plans for Dallas, too. In Week 2, he definitely was able to accomplish some things over the top.

The Cowboys likely don't have a good defense this year. Next year, with Jaylon Smith and another few guys in the draft, they can start handling their own business better. This season, the plan is to continue scrapping their tails off. Make a few plays (turnovers or third-down stops) and let the offense do the rest.

It is certainly working so far.