Football 301: Week 3 - Decoding Garrett

DISCLAIMER: This is not for everyone. It may not be for you. This is a statistical study of the Cowboys offense with lots of numbers that may make your head tired if you are not up to it. Read it only if it is something that is of interest to you.

The win versus Carolina resulted in many people who follow this team to suggest it was a disappointing night for the offense. After all, they had 0 points at halftime, and really only accounted for 1 TD and 2 FGs against a defense that does not stun you with its talent.

But, was the offense bad? And if so, how do we define that?

The Morning After: Cowboys 21, Panthers 7

Not every single NFL game turns on one play, but quite a few of them do. And without question, Dallas' first Monday Night win in their new stadium absolutely turned on one play and one play only.

2nd Down, 10 yards to go for the Panthers at their own 22 yard line with 5:15 left to go in the 4th Quarter. They have been badly outplayed in the 2nd half, but now own the football and only trail the Cowboys by 6 points. This is the ultimate opportunity to steal a game with a touchdown, and get that win that Carolina needs so badly.

ESPN, after Jake Delhomme takes a deep shot to Steve Smith on 1st down, shows a montage of Terrence Newman up in tight and aggressive coverage on Smith in the 2nd half, frustrating Smith to a point of a temper tantrum on the sideline.

The Panthers are flooding the right side of the line on this 2nd and 10, with Muhsin Muhammad, Jeff King, Donte Rosario, and DeAngelo Williams all running routes to the offensive right. Steve Smith is split to the left, and the Cowboys counter with Newman tight, and Hamlin over the top. The Panthers have to be thinking that since they took a deep shot to Smith on 1st down, chances are that Newman would be leaning back on a deeper route and conceding the slant.

Game Plan Friday: Carolina Panthers

After a long week of the sky falling, another chance arises to knock out that first home victory in the new stadium along with a chance for another broadcast crew to run the new stadium's fun facts right into the ground.

Welcome to Week 3: Cowboys and Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football. Both teams desperately need wins, as the Panthers certainly don't want to join the Tennessee Titans as another playoff team from 2008 that starts 0-3 and is left for dead (although they have already been left for dead by most) and the Cowboys face a 2 week roadtrip to two difficult stadiums (albeit not the toughest teams in the league) before their bye week. You could only imagine the mass hysteria if this Cowboys team has to wait until October 25th for another chance at getting its first win in Arlington. They don't want that hanging over them.

We looked closely at the Panthers on Thursday, so if you would like to review that, Click Here and read until your heart is content .

So, how do we get to 2-1? If you do get to 2-1, the sun rises tomorrow with renewed optimism for the 2009 season, and the idea that if you can beat Denver and Kansas City going into the bye week that this team will be right where it needs to be the next time they play a home game. If they don't get a win tonight, the usual implosion warnings will be sounded.

Analyze The Enemy - Carolina Panthers

THURSDAYS: We catch you up on this week’s opponent with an overall portrait of their team. This is not breaking down this week’s match-up, because that happens on Friday. This is just to set the table in preparation for laying out the gameplan.

In Week 3, The Cowboys welcome another playoff team from 2008, those Carolina Panthers for a little Monday Night Football. The Panthers are certainly another team that has its share of critics across the league, and as usual - the targets on that team are two familiar positions for football criticism, Head Coach and Quarterback.

John Fox, entering his 8th year as head coach of the Panthers, took the job over after serving 5 years with the New York Giants under Jim Fassel, where the Giants went all the way to Super Bowl 35. Led by their defense, Fox was the hot name for a few offseasons, and in 2002 he took over the Panthers who were coming of a 1-15 2001 under their previous coach, George Seifert. In fact, as hard as it is to believe, Fox has been the coach of the Panthers longer than Seifert and Dom Capers combined. Capers only coached in Carolina for 4 years (going to the '96 NFC Championship game), Seifert for 3 (going 16-32). Fox, 63-49 in his 7+ seasons, took the Panthers to the brink of a Super Bowl 38 victory in his 2nd year, and to the NFC Title game in his 4th year, before losing to the Seahawks. His 3rd trip to the playoffs was last season where the Panthers equaled a franchise-high 12-4 record, but then were demolished in Charlotte by the Arizona Cardinals in the playoffs.

Football Muse You Can Use

For our Wednesday NFL Reset column this week, I wanted to get something for you to examine that I have been meaning to publish for a few weeks. It is a trend that I love to follow because September is always the month everyone projects their own personal playoff predictions.

I am no different, and this year I predicted (before the season started) that the Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, Saints, Seahawks, and Falcons would make the NFC Playoffs, and the Patriots, Colts, Bengals, Steelers, Chargers, and Titans would make the AFC Playoffs. I had the Saints-Chargers in the Super Bowl, with the Saints winning it all.

Anyway, the reason I wanted to print it here (rather than just say it on the radio) was to show you a very interesting trend that one should consider before guessing who is going to be in the 2009 playoffs. And, I should have shown you this 3 weeks ago so you could have known this before you made your own predictions. Sorry. I have been really busy with all of this Football 301 stuff.

The Trend is this - Since 1991, when the NFL Expanded its playoffs to 12 teams, each year has averaged 5.8 new teams each year. To say it slightly differently, only 6 teams make it back to the playoffs the next year - and the other 6 teams are brand new.

Football 301: Decoding Garrett - Week 2

DISCLAIMER: This is not for everyone. It may not be for you. This is a statistical study of the Cowboys offense with lots of numbers that may make your head tired if you are not up to it. Read it only if it is something that is of interest to you.

Well, I know the hurt is still there for many fans of the Cowboys, but just know as you read this that the Cowboys coaching staff has already digested the Giants film and today will put the finishing touches on the Panthers' game plan.

The Giants game will be remembered by many of us as a failure, but success versus failure in the National Football League sometimes comes down to a simple field goal attempt with no time left on the clock after 3 hours of two teams killing each-other. The basic truth is this: In every game, there is good to consider and bad to avoid. And Sunday night, the Cowboys did some wonderful things. But, it only takes one untimely lapse in judgement from either your QB or your Offensive Coordinator to get you beat. That is the point of this Tuesday Series here at Inside Corner. To examine where they got it right, and where they got it wrong during each Cowboys game.

The Morning After: Giants 33, Cowboys 31

The new stadium opens like the old stadium closed - with a gut punch.

This game was a game of so many ups and downs. On one hand, the Cowboys did so much to beat themselves that they really were lucky to have a lead and a chance at the end. And on the other hand, they had so many "bad breaks" that you wondered who they angered, because if one of those bounces doesn't go the Giants' way, then the Cowboys surely get the win.

Welcome back, NFL Season. Welcome back, 200 emails when Romo has a bad night. And welcome back, Monday after a gutting defeat where knee jerk reactions are flying in every direction. We missed you all. 16 hurdles in the meat grinder, and the Cowboys get nailed in their first home game, because they took an inexcusable -4 in the turnover rating.

On Wednesdays, we demonstrate the importance of turnovers around the league . There is no other stat so important as turnovers. If you are even a "-1" in a game, you lose 3 out of every 4 games. Worse than -1, and the number grows quite a bit. By the time you get to -4, it is almost 99% loss rate. In fact, since the start of last season, 24 teams have been a -4, and 24 teams have lost. Simply put, you don't take care of the football, you don't win.

And the Cowboys did not take care of the football. Namely, Tony Romo did not take care of the football. There are days when you can get away with that, and when you run for 251 yards, I thought for a bit that this might be one of those days. But, the combination that couldn't be overcome is this: The Cowboys offense gave the ball away 3 times; The special teams gave the ball away once; and the Cowboys defense did not create a turnover. Again.

Game Plan Friday: New York Giants

Sometimes, a preview/game plan story can write itself. I feel like these first few paragraphs are insanely obvious, but let's do it anyway. The facts are easy to see:

1) This is the opening of the new stadium. And not just any stadium. Many are suggesting by their actions (The Today Show is here!) that this is not merely another stadium opening. This is the Death Star. This is Jerry World. This is $1.2 billion dollars of excess when there is not much excess in our economy. This is "bigger in Texas". This is the Dallas Cowboys.

2) And, this is the New York Giants. The bile and venom from both sides is never in short supply. I cannot speak for past generations, but in the here and now, the current 45 men on each side of the field are enemies. They don't like eachother. And they wish to do eachother harm and humiliation at every opportunity. And imagine how much joy it would bring the Giants to ruin the party on Sunday night.

Analyze The Enemy - New York Giants

THURSDAYS: We catch you up on this week's opponent with an overall portrait of their team. This is not breaking down this week's match-up, because that happens on Friday. This is just to set the table in preparation for laying out the gameplan.

This week's foe needs no introduction. I remember when I first arrived in Dallas in 1998, I was always interested in the discussion of who is the Cowboys biggest rival (according to Cowboys fans). They are very similar to the University of Texas in the rivals department as everyone counts them as their biggest game, but what did you feel?

I can't remember what the results were in my survey, because the important thing I learned is "it depends who you ask". Well, if you ask me, the Giants are the biggest current rivalry in my mind. These two teams do not like eachother. At all. In fact, they go out of their way to say it. And it is pretty clear that bulletin board material is not a very big worry for either side.

This is an amazing division, as their are traditional powers in every direction. Off the top of my head, I believe it is the only division in football with all 4 teams owning NFL Titles (yes, in 1960, the Eagles last won the NFL Title; and no, I will not count AFL Titles for the purpose of my point).

UFC 103 - Dallas, Are You Ready?

Saturday Night is quickly approaching, and that means UFC 103 at the American Airlines Center is ready to go down.

I have been waiting a very long time to finally see my first UFC show in person, but I must tell you there are a few things that trouble me:

1) - The card appears to be rather weak. Now, as a UFC hardcore loyalist, I will readily admit that some of the strong cards turn out to be weak, and some of the weak cards turn out to be awesome. But, at first glance, I wish Columbus, Ohio, might have been given this one. I think a city that has never enjoyed your product before might need a headliner that gets the marginal fan interested if the goal is to fill a 20,000 seat arena at the prices that are listed. CroCop may be that guy, but do enough people know his work in the sports world? Which brings me to...

2) - Can the arena be filled? With the poor card, the economy, Texas-Texas Tech up against it, the somewhat minimal promotion locally, and the prices, will the arena fill? And if it does not, will the UFC vow to never return? I want to make sure the UFC is impressed and a regular traveller to these parts, but you never get a 2nd chance to make a 1st impression. And 9/19 will say plenty about the DFW market to the UFC suits (Dana White).

3) - How bad will the competitions hurt? Texas vs Texas Tech is a real troublesome match-up, and on PPV, we have Floyd Mayweather vs Juan Manuel Marquez. And HBO has really been pushing that with the great 24/7 series, so much so that if this card wasn't in Dallas - I would be torn.