Decoding Callahan: Week 17 - Philadelphia - Trying To Deal With More Blitzes

There are a number of components about the Cowboys offense as we reach the end of 2013 that can be examined as it pertains to a Week 17 winner-take-all matchup with Philadelphia (without their starting QB Tony Romo) that actually falls in line with the 2013 Cowboys that played 15 games before this (that all included their starting QB).

For instance, as we look carefully at how this offense functioned and accumulated points and yards, it is interesting to note that on 1st Down, the Cowboys ranked #2 in the entire league for efficiency.  This means, that on 1st Downs, they had what are called "successful plays" (4 yards or more) over 53% of the time.  Only New Orleans (53.6%) was slightly better and the rest of the league was worse.  The league averaged 46% and playoff teams for 2013 averaged 48%.  1st Down - a down which we would argue is easily the Cowboys most balanced (which might be arguing the tallest dwarf) - is a down they were quite successful at, even more so than Denver.

On 2nd down, you might be surprised to learn that the Cowboys are again ranked #2 in the entire NFL.  This time, the Denver Broncos were the one team in all of football that ranked higher, as Peyton Manning's offense converted 2nd downs into new 1st downs on 41.2% of occasions.  The Cowboys were right there, though, with 36.7, where a league average is 31.2% and a team like the Baltimore Ravens sits 32nd at a pitiful 23%.

So, let's think about this for a moment.  In a season where the Cowboys were 2nd in the entire NFL on 1st down and 2nd in the entire NFL on 2nd Downs, they still were near the bottom of the league in 10-play drives (29th), plays per scoring drive (29th), rushes + completions (29th), and maybe most notably, finished below league average in yards per game with just 341 yards per contest (the league averages 348 and playoff teams are at 377).  How can this make sense?  How can they do so well in early downs and distances, and yet underperform as an offense overall?

Well, you likely already know.  Behold, 3rd Downs.

We have spent a lot of time on 3rd Downs this season, but, since it is commonly referred to as the "money" down in this sport, we must focus yet again.  Because no matter how much time the Cowboys spent on it, they never really seemed to figure it out.

3rd Down is where you see the primary blitz looks.  Yes, teams mix it up, but on early downs it is an ambush.  On 3rd Down, it is telegraphed.  There is no ambush.  They break the defensive huddle and then line 7 across the line of scrimmage right in the QBs face.  According to our numbers, here is how blitzing broke down across the 3 downs:

1st Down: Cowboys faced 29% blitzes
2nd Down: Cowboys faced 31% blitzes
3rd Down: Cowboys faced 44% blitzes

As you might expect, once you break it down by down and distance, it shoots up again.  3rd and long is now facing blitzes over 60% of the time.  And as the season went along, they increased.

For the season, the Cowboys faced blitzes on 34% of all occasions, but in December, it shot up to 43%, including Green Bay and Philadelphia both bringing 20+ different blitzes.  You could say the Eagles were blitzing Kyle Orton more because he is the backup, until you see that they blitzed Romo almost the same amount in Philadelphia in Week 7.

So, even though I figure you know the answers already, how did the Cowboys handle all of this pressure?  Yet another 3-11 day on 3rd Downs.  This locks their season performance in at 35% and ranked 25th in the NFL, tied with the juggernaut offensive attacks in Cleveland, Oakland, and Miami.  That means there are actually 6 offenses in football who do worse on 3rd Down, but stop me when you see a great offense on this list:  Kansas City, St Louis, Buffalo, New York Giants, Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville.  Of the teams on this list of 10, you can see that only Kansas City figured out a way to fail at this metric and still continue their season into January.

Before we assume that there is more to this than blitz handling by the Cowboys, we should make sure it isn't 3rd and short that is hurting them.  But on 3rd and less than 5, the Cowboys are up in the top half of the league on pretty much each distance.  There is nothing abnormal about their ability to pick up 3rd and short or even 3rd and manageable.

But, 3rd and 6-9 to go?  The Cowboys are 27th at 29.8% in a league where 35.7 is average and 38% is playoff average.  And then 3rd and 10+ Dallas is at 17% where the league is at 19% and the playoff teams are at 20%.

These are small margins, but as you think about it, consider that you won't see full-out blitzing on 3rd and 3.  But, 3rd and 8?  Yes, sir.  Dial it up again.

This was the theme constantly on Sunday night.  Get the Cowboys into 3rd and 6+, unleash the hounds, and know that Orton is going to get the ball out to avoid a crucial sack.  But, this smart, conservative approach is what beat the Cowboys on Sunday.  They were not able to put enough drives together because they couldn't stay out of 3rd and long.  When the blitz is coming, Orton hits the safe outlet.  No trouble, yes.  But, also, not success.  And when Witten or Murray are 7 yards short of the sticks, on comes the punt team or Dan Bailey again.

In many ways, it is the story of the season, and perhaps the Cowboys offense in this era with Tony Romo and Jason Garrett at the helm.  And this is also why judging your pass protection on sacks conceded can be very dangerous and misleading.  The object of the game for an offense is not to avoid sacks, it is to score points.  But, you can see the issues here.  Beating the blitz is only done if you make them pay by punishing them with yards and points.  If you are going to throw a 1-yard horizontal pass to avoid a blitz and thus concede to a punt, you are only encouraging them to do it again and again.  Which the Eagles were happy to accommodate.

Let's look at some examples here - Warning: these may all look like the same play - they are not.

Here is the one right before halftime.  3rd and 10 and the Eagles blitz 7.  The idea is that Beasley will be open because the single-high safety is actually responsible for him and will have to make a tackle before the sticks if Orton finds him, but Orton is just avoiding the sack and playing for a field goal.  Safety first were his orders and he wasn't going to lose points at this critical juncture.  

This is the one shot that had a chance.  Early 3rd, 3rd and 8, and Orton is ready for the blitz and will try to give Dez a chance.  He does, but young Boykin does a nice job of challenging an off-balance Bryant for the ball.  This is exactly the way to beat the blitz, but you wonder if Orton could have thrown a more direct back shoulder fade (which would have required a better stance to throw before the free rusher gets to him) might have been the throw here.  Eagles blitz 6.

This was after the turnover and the Cowboys had the ball at the 20.  They simply must get 7 here and on 3rd and 9, here comes a 5-man fire zone blitz with the opposite edge rusher (98-Barwin) falling back into the flat to deal with Murray.  Orton thought Barwin was coming and then Murray had a chance.  But, with Barwin watching DeMarco, this never had a chance.  Another demoralizing Field Goal.

And then this one.  6 man blitz, man to man everywhere.  But, Orton sees the safety coming through the A-gap untouched (23-Chung) and unloads quickly to Witten who just never had much of a chance to lose his tackler, Brandon Graham.  The Eagles have learned that if you run at Orton, he seldom will look to the sticks, but quickly check down and get the ball out.  This is likely how you want a QB to play conservatively in a situation like this, but it certainly encourages the defense to turn the heat up even hotter.

They did burn the blitz later on the 4th down to Dez, but as you can see, this was a real theme in the game and frankly, for the season.

STATS FOR WEEK 17 against PHILADELPHIA

Run-Pass	18-46
Starting Field Position	D30
1st Down Run-Pass	9-22
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.60
2nd Down Run-Pass	7-13
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	6.81
3rd/4th Down Run-Pass	2-11
3rd Down Conversions	3-11, 27%

PASSING CHARTS:

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.  Intern Tim has made some pleasing to the eye charts for us to see.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.

1ST HALF PASSING CHART -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)

Orton took a few shots, but mostly down to his right (his frontside).  This is pretty common.

2ND HALF PASSING CHART -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)

Orton's 2nd half tells a story of the completions all being very short and mostly painless to the Eagles.  30 completions for the game, but in the 2nd half, only 1 beyond 10 yards down the field.  

Jason Witten Passing Chart -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)

On passes just to Witten, here are the results.  You can see those short and to the right leak-outs against pressure.

Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Wk 1 - New York Giants: 5 Run/7 Pass - 42% Run
Wk 2 - Kansas City Chiefs: 3 Run/9 Pass - 25% Run
Wk 3 - St. Louis Rams: 8 Run/2 Pass - 80% Run
Wk 4 - San Diego Chargers: 6 Run/4 Pass - 60% Run
Wk 5 - Denver Broncos: 3 Run/8 Pass - 37% Run
Wk 6 - Washington Redskins: 5 Run/4 Pass - 55% Run
Wk 7 - Philadelphia Eagles: 5 Run/9 Pass - 35% Run
Wk 8 - Detroit Lions: 9 Run/5 Pass - 64% Run
Wk 9 - Minnesota Vikings: 2 Run/8 Pass - 20% Run
Wk 10 - New Orleans Saints: 6 Run/5 Pass - 54% Run
Wk 12 - New York Giants: 6 Run/5 Pass - 54% Run
Wk 13 - Oakland Raiders: 7 Run/3 Pass - 70% Run
Wk 14 - Chicago Bears: 5 Run/3 Pass - 62% Run
Wk 15 - Green Bay Packers: 4 Run/8 Pass - 33.3% Run
Wk 16 - Washington Redskins: 6 Run/4 Pass - 60% Run
Wk 17 - Philadelphia Eagles: 4 Run/8 Pass - 33% Run

2013 Totals: 176 Drives - 84 Run/92 Pass - 47% Run
* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives.

2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass - 44% Run
2012 Total: 173 Drives - 76 Run/97 Pass - 44% Run


SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated.

Interesting number, 566 shotgun snaps eclipses the 2012 mark of 565, but in 93 fewer plays!  Under center?  Shrinking every year, to my dismay.

Wk 1 - NYG: 44 Shotgun/71 Total Plays - 61.9%
Wk 2 - at KC: 46 Shotgun/60 Total Plays - 76.6%
Wk 3 - STL: 28 Shotgun/59 Total Plays - 47.4%
Wk 4 - at SD: 33 Shotgun/56 Total Plays - 58.9%
Wk 5 - DEN: 39 Shotgun/54 Total Plays - 72.2%
Wk 6 - WASH: 23 Shotgun/50 Total Plays - 46%
Wk 7 - at PHI: 53 Shotgun/73 Total Plays - 72.6%
Wk 8 - at DET: 33 Shotgun/55 Total Plays - 60%
Wk 9 - MIN: 50 Shotgun/63 Total Plays - 79.3%
Wk 10 - at NO: 27 Shotgun/43 Total Plays - 62.3%
Wk 12 - at NYG: 32 Shotgun/60 Total Plays - 53.3%
Wk 13 - OAK: 33 Shotgun/63 Total Plays - 52.3%
Wk 14 - at CHI: 22 Shotgun/54 Total Plays - 40.7%
Wk 15 - GB: 35 Shotgun/69 Total Plays - 50.7%
Wk 16 - at WASH: 25 Shotgun/51 Total Plays - 49.1%
Wk 17 - PHI: 43 Shotgun/64 Total Plays - 67.1%

Season Total - 566 Shotgun/945 Total Plays - 59.8%

2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%
2012 Total - 565/1038 54%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

And now, a look at the efficiency of each personnel grouping.

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	8	23	7-20	1-3
12	7	40	5-16	2-24
13	2	3	1-3	1-0
21	3	3	2-3	1-0
22	1	0	0-0	1-0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	3	35	0-0	3-35
S11	31	260	3-14	28-246
S12	9	50	0-0	9-50
S13	0	0	0-0	0-0
Other	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	64	414	18-56	46-358

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	2	8	2-8	0-0	1/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	1	0	0-0	1-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	1	0	0-0	1-0	0/0
S11	8	80	0-0	8-80	2/1
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Other	1	1	0-0	1-1	0/0
Totals	13	89	2-8	11-81	3/1

Pass Rushers Against Dallas - 46 Pass Situations vs Philadephia

Wk 1: NY Blitzed 13/49: 26%
Wk 2: KC Blitzed 19/46: 41%
Wk 3: STL Blitzed 10/25: 40%
Wk 4: SD Blitzed 8/41: 19%
Wk 5: DEN Blitzed 10/40 25%
Wk 6: WAS Blitzed 17/31 55%
Wk 7: PHI Blitzed  22/48 46%
Wk 8: DET Blitzed 9/31  29%
Wk 9: MIN Blitzed 9/54  17%
Wk 10: NO Blitzed 3/27  11%
Wk 12: NYG Blitzed 10/43 23%
Wk 13: OAK Blitzed 16/33 48%
Wk 14: CHI Blitzed 11/27 41%
Wk 15: GB Blitzed 20/51 39%
Wk 16: WASH Blitzed 9/24 41%
Wk 17: PHI Blitzed 24/46 52%

Season Blitz rate vs Dallas 210/616: 34%

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	2	9	9	1
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	0	1	0
Totals	2	9	10	1

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	3	2	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	5	3	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	0	0	1
Totals	0	8	5	1

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	2	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	0	3	2
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	0	1	0
Totals	0	2	4	2

7 Rush (1) - Second Level

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	1	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Totals	0	1	0	0

7 Rush (1) - Second Level

SEASON TO DATE

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush	7 Rush
1st Down	15 - 5%	164 - 65%	64 - 25%	8 - 3%	1 - 1%
2nd Down	11 - 5%	132 - 62%	56 - 26%	12 - 5%	0
3rd Down	10 - 6%	75 - 50%	54 - 36%	9 - 6%	2 - 1%
4th Down	0	2 - 40%	1 - 20%	1 - 20%	1 - 20%
Totals	36 - 5%	373 - 60%	175 - 28%	30 - 4%	4 - 1%

Thanks to John Daigle and Tim Krajewski for their work on the charts and graphs.

=====

SUMMARY:  Next week, we will begin to sort through the season numbers by personnel groupings. But, surely, the objective going forward if we assume that the offense will stay the same is combining the things this offense is good at - and yes, I believe that the numbers continue to show that this offense is good at balanced offense.  They did very well this season at running the football from under center and mixing pass and runs.

They must combine those attributes with things that must be improved upon from the category of "things they are not so good at" which to me, starts and stops with 3rd Downs.  If we are to judge elite QBs with who can make their team move the chains the most, then the Cowboys need to figure out ways to put Tony Romo up in the class of the elite in this situation.

In many cases, the blitz is a self-fulfilling prophecy, in that the teams that face them the most are teams that do not deal with them well.  The more you fail, the more it comes - conversely, the more you burn it - Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady (when he had Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski) face far fewer blitzes - the less you see.

The real question now turns to Romo's health.  If I was playing the Cowboys, I would be considering a QB who has shown that he is attempting to avoid contact to preserve his aching body.  This is not a compassionate league that sympathizes with a situation like this. Instead, it targets it.  And therefore, a Romo who is trying to preserve his health may be making the wise decision for the big picture, but inviting even more pressure when he returns.

And that is why that this should be objective #1 moving forward.  Even though this team did a nice job this season on 1st and 2nd down of staying out of 3rd and long, every team is going to have several a game they have to convert.  How is that going to change in 2014?

No rocks should be left unturned on this topic.

The Morning After: Eagles 24, Cowboys 22 (8-8)

And so ends another season on this treadmill of mediocrity at Valley Ranch…

It is different, in many respects, because this time the culprits are some who were not even part of the story just a year or two ago, with names like Monte Kiffin and Bill Callahan at the top of the list of people sitting on seats that may in fact be warming to hot.  There are new coaches and players in the chairs of blame and some will be replaced and some will not.

But, in the end, as over 91,000 fans paid top dollar to witness the spectacle last night, it all wraps up the same exact way that 2012 and 2011 did before it, with a break-even record of 8-8 that will thoroughly frustrate even the most optimistic of fans that remain on board the Dallas Cowboys ship.

This franchise is doing something that in many ways is impossible in today's National Football League. In a league where parity and tightly-knit competition insures that teams will fluctuate every single year, the Cowboys are stuck in a rut that they cannot escape from, sitting in their spot in the standings as teams rise and fall all around them.

Amazingly, they are neither good enough to rise up and take that half-step up the leader board which would put them in the playoffs and make them re-evaluate just how far away they seem to be, but they are also not bad enough to fall down the standings into the true dregs of professional football and see themselves as failures that need to be dismissed en masse.  It is particularly frustrating for anyone to make an argument in either extreme.  This franchise is not utterly pitiful, as we can see examples of that all around them; but they are also not approaching acceptable by any metric (both by the franchise's gold standards, nor the normal expectations of a franchise in today's NFL).

And that is why on a morning like this one, given that I have been at this keyboard typing a "Morning After" summary for every Cowboys game going back years and years, I am almost speechless knowing that it must all be repeated again.  Another few weeks of aftermath is coming where the public wants a significant change in the organization, ranging from the unrealistic hope that the owner/general manager/dictator steps aside, to something a bit more possible like yet another head coach finally being led to the public gallows.  Then, whatever change happens (if any at all), we work our ways into the normal routine of the Senior Bowl, the NFL Playoffs (where surely we can rationalize some franchise who is going on a run being like the Cowboys in some way which will offer hope to how close this organization actually is if one play goes a little different and maybe Kyle Orton throws a slightly better pass to Miles Austin on the final drive).

That is followed by Super Bowl week, the NFL Combine, Free agency or as we call it in Dallas, "Contract restructuring season", then the NFL Draft, and the practices and camps start all over again.  By that time, in May or June, the bitter taste of this 8-8 season that collapsed into another 1-3 December will be a bit fuzzy in the memory banks and we can discuss how great Tony Romo's back looks, how up to snuff some of these new draft picks appear, and a shiny new depth chart that is unaffected by injuries (hey, Tyrone Crawford is back!) as we head for Oxnard.

It is the merry-go-round of pro sports that we have all signed up for, and one that shows no signs of stopping around here as long as 91,000 of the Cowboys biggest loyalists fill that stadium at any price tag to watch the same episode as many times as they will be allowed to do so.  If all they have to do is open the doors to sell out the largest stadium in pro football and if your loyalty is tied to the 30-year mortgage that you opened to be a part of Cowboys Stadium, then by my count, we have about 25 more years before we can expect that stadium not to be full on night's like that to show fan disapproval.

I didn't mean to depress you.  Although, if I did (and your favorite team did not), then you clearly haven't been paying close attention to this team and therefore likely aren't even reading this in the first place.

But, this organization did it to you again, and in a normal setting, there is a steady balance between the organization's management and the feelings of the public to guarantee that the customers continue to come to the stadium and to leave their money there.  But, once the franchise was able to get everyone to sign PSL agreements that ran through the 2038 season, they organized one of the most amazing deals with their adoring public that any corporation could ever dream of (aside from taxpayer-funded stadiums, of course) - they lost the incentive to please anyone but themselves.

So, before I spend time on the specifics of last night, I want to make sure it is in writing that there is not another situation in professional sports where the fan base is as powerless as this one and where a once-proud franchise needed significant and meaningful change at the top worse than this one.  The long-term mediocrity that this organization has exhibited for almost 2 full decades now is laughable by almost any metric, and yet they cannot print tickets fast enough.  The genius ability of Jerry Jones as a business man surely makes his pitiful performance as a football franchise architect possible.  And what is worse, as the sole ruler on when his reign should end, you are his subjects who must hope that somehow as he ages, he improves despite not having a real incentive to strive to improve.

Sorry.  But, Jerry Jones is the only person who can actually fix this and he also might be the only person who doesn't know it is broken.  If given the choice, financial success is more important than football success to Jerry, than the Cowboys are exhibiting the results that he so desires.  And that is why he may not consider this an unsuccessful season.  The Cowboys' revenues will dwarf the rest of the league and in this sport, with a harsh salary cap, he is not allowed to spend those profits to fix this team's losing.  He is allowed to enjoy the spoils of it without incentive to change.

Here, from Brandon George's piece in the Dallas Morning News is all you have to see:

Only once did Jones get a bit testy with the line of questioning late Sunday night. That was when he was asked if he gets embarrassed by the Cowboys’ results of late and how that’s shaped the national perspective of the once-proud franchise. 

“I don’t know,” Jones fired back. “Would you get embarrassed if you were standing in this stadium? Seriously. The answer is no, not at all.”

Oh boy.

Now, there is no way to sveltely segue into the events of Game #16 from the 2013 season after that rant, but I must attempt to do so.

The Cowboys did many things on Sunday night that are worthy of your admiration, partly because the Eagles are unstoppable to most NFL defenses.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys couldn't stop anyone all season, including quite a list of backup Quarterbacks, and somehow still were able to stop the Eagles in 2 different games.

In 2 game, the Cowboys allowed the Eagles just 27 total points.  In the 14 other games for Chip Kelly and his offense, they averaged 29.6 points PER game.  Also, only 4 times all season were the Eagles held below 400 yards.  Twice, however, to Monte Kiffin and this defense made up of castaways and castaway understudies.  

The Eagles only had 278 yards in that matchup in Philadelphia, and then followed it up with just 366 last night in Dallas.  Given that they averaged 431 yards in the other 14 games, this is both unlikely and difficult to explain.  In addition - or perhaps related - the pass rush schemes and strategies of the Cowboys front was able to trouble the Eagles any time they had to pass.

I am not trying to give the impression that the defense stopped the Eagles, but 24 points was a dream and the ability to use the Eagles punter 5 times, and another drive ended with a takeaway, and yet another ended with a turnover on downs means that the Cowboys were able to get 7 stops of this unstoppable force.

That had to be enough.

Meanwhile, when Dallas brought in Kyle Orton on a 3 year deal worth over $10 million, it was always with this game in mind.  If you lose your QB for 2 months, you are screwed.  But, if you lose him for 2-3 games, do you have a QB who can step in and put you in a position to win a crucial game?

In the case of Orton and Sunday night, it is clear that they believed he was that guy, and on the whole, he performed in a way that indicates that they weren't wrong.  This was a game that looked winnable right until the final throw that was picked off when Orton threw behind Austin on yet another play that ended in the resting arms of an enemy defensive back.

The offense struggled all night because the running game was not as productive as it hinted it might have been early.  And once the running game started getting backed up, then the 3rd and longs invited blitz after blitz, and Orton is certainly not going to hang in the pocket and roll the dice.  Instead, he is getting the ball out quickly - usually to Witten or Murray in the flat, which means well short of the sticks and bring on the punting team more often that not.

But, there is every reason to believe that this was a 50/50 game that was highly winnable in the end.  Like the Kansas City, Denver, Detroit, Minnesota, Giants, Green Bay, and even last week's Washington game, it would come down to making a play for or against after the 2-minute warning of the 4th Quarter.  In those games, they did make enough plays in 3 of the 8 games, where a 4-4 record in those 8 games likely puts them in the playoffs.

That is the margin for error.  Like the ball lost in the lights in 2011 to Miles or the fingertips of Dez landing out of bounds in 2012, the distance between the Cowboys and the NFC East divisional title is no wider than the width of a piece of paper.

And yet it exists.

Which is why we sit here on another Monday morning and wonder what it will take for the Cowboys to break out of this rut.

Surely, there are many that work tirelessly around the clock to get this right.  Many players who have dedicated every moment of their football career to get the Cowboys over this hump.  Many in the organization who believe that the gap can be bridged and soon.

But, for most, the distance between the time this franchise was a NFL power and now is growing and the memories are fading.  The excitement level that was once reserved for their favorite football franchise has been redirected to other outlets and diversions.  The hope is there, but not what it once was.

Meanwhile, Jerry Jones can only assume that the seats will be filled again in 2014, regardless of what he does this offseason.

Because they always are filled.

Decoding Callahan - Week 16 - At Washington

It is Christmas Week, so please pardon a "data only" post.



STATS FOR WEEK 16 against WASHINGTON

Run-Pass	22-29
Starting Field Position	D28
1st Down Run-Pass	14-9
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	6.75
2nd Down Run-Pass	7-9
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	5.90
3rd/4th Down Run-Pass	1-11
3rd Down Conversions	4-10, 40%

PASSING CHARTS:

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.  Intern Tim has made some pleasing to the eye charts for us to see.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.

1ST HALF PASSING CHART -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)

2ND HALF PASSING CHART -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)

Dez Bryant Passing Chart -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)

Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Wk 1 - New York Giants: 5 Run/7 Pass - 42% Run
Wk 2 - Kansas City Chiefs: 3 Run/9 Pass - 25% Run
Wk 3 - St. Louis Rams: 8 Run/2 Pass - 80% Run
Wk 4 - San Diego Chargers: 6 Run/4 Pass - 60% Run
Wk 5 - Denver Broncos: 3 Run/8 Pass - 37% Run
Wk 6 - Washington Redskins: 5 Run/4 Pass - 55% Run
Wk 7 - Philadelphia Eagles: 5 Run/9 Pass - 35% Run
Wk 8 - Detroit Lions: 9 Run/5 Pass - 64% Run
Wk 9 - Minnesota Vikings: 2 Run/8 Pass - 20% Run
Wk 10 - New Orleans Saints: 6 Run/5 Pass - 54% Run
Wk 12 - New York Giants: 6 Run/5 Pass - 54% Run
Wk 13 - Oakland Raiders: 7 Run/3 Pass - 70% Run
Wk 14 - Chicago Bears: 5 Run/3 Pass - 62% Run
Wk 15 - Green Bay Packers: 4 Run/8 Pass - 33.3% Run
Wk 16 - Washington Redskins: 6 Run/4 Pass - 60% Run

2013 Totals: 110 Drives - 80 Run/86 Pass - 48% Run
* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives.

2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass - 44% Run
2012 Total: 173 Drives - 76 Run/97 Pass - 44% Run


SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated.



Wk 1 - NYG: 44 Shotgun/71 Total Plays - 61.9%
Wk 2 - at KC: 46 Shotgun/60 Total Plays - 76.6%
Wk 3 - STL: 28 Shotgun/59 Total Plays - 47.4%
Wk 4 - at SD: 33 Shotgun/56 Total Plays - 58.9%
Wk 5 - DEN: 39 Shotgun/54 Total Plays - 72.2%
Wk 6 - WASH: 23 Shotgun/50 Total Plays - 46%
Wk 7 - at PHI: 53 Shotgun/73 Total Plays - 72.6%
Wk 8 - at DET: 33 Shotgun/55 Total Plays - 60%
Wk 9 - MIN: 50 Shotgun/63 Total Plays - 79.3%
Wk 10 - at NO: 27 Shotgun/43 Total Plays - 62.3%
Wk 12 - at NYG: 32 Shotgun/60 Total Plays - 53.3%
Wk 13 - OAK: 33 Shotgun/63 Total Plays - 52.3%
Wk 14 - at CHI: 22 Shotgun/54 Total Plays - 40.7%
Wk 15 - GB: 35 Shotgun/69 Total Plays - 50.7%
Wk 16 - at WASH: 25 Shotgun/51 Total Plays - 49.1%

Season Total - 523 Shotgun/881 Total Plays - 59.3%

2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%
2012 Total - 565/1038 54%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

And now, a look at the efficiency of each personnel grouping.

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	5	32	4-15	1-17
12	8	63	7-58	1-5
13	0	0	0-0	0-0
21	9	31	6-21	3-10
22	2	1	1-1	1-0
23	2	-9	2- -9	0-0
S01	1	4	0-0	1-4
S02	3	22	0-0	3-22
S11	16	127	2-11	14-116
S12	5	39	0-0	5-39
S13	0	0	0-0	0-0
Other	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	51	310	22-97	29-213

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	1	-9	1- -9	0-0	0/0
S01	1	4	0-0	1-4	0/0
S02	2	13	0-0	2-13	0/1
S11	7	39	0-0	7-39	3/1
S12	1	8	0-0	1-8	1/0
Other	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	12	55	1- -9	11-64	4/2

Pass Rushers Against Dallas - 51 Pass Situations vs Washington

Wk 1: NY Blitzed 13/49: 26%
Wk 2: KC Blitzed 19/46: 41%
Wk 3: STL Blitzed 10/25: 40%
Wk 4: SD Blitzed 8/41: 19%
Wk 5: DEN Blitzed 10/40 25%
Wk 6: WAS Blitzed 17/31 55%
Wk 7: PHI Blitzed  22/48 46%
Wk 8: DET Blitzed 9/31  29%
Wk 9: MIN Blitzed 9/54  17%
Wk 10: NO Blitzed 3/27  11%
Wk 12: NYG Blitzed 10/43 23%
Wk 13: OAK Blitzed 16/33 48%
Wk 14: CHI Blitzed 11/27 41%
Wk 15: GB Blitzed 20/51 39%
Wk 16: WASH Blitzed 9/24 41%

Season Blitz rate vs Dallas 186/570: 33%

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	1	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	4	3	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Totals	0	5	3	0

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	5	2	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Totals	0	5	2	0

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	3	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	2	2	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Totals	0	5	2	0

* - Below is the lone instance Washington rushed eight; the first time Dallas has faced an eight-man blitz this season.

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	1	1	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Totals	0	1	1	0

SEASON TO DATE

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush	7 Rush
1st Down	13 - 5%	155 - 67%	54 - 23%	7 - 3%	1 - 1%
2nd Down	11 - 5%	124 - 62%	51 - 25%	11 - 5%	0
3rd Down	10 - 6%	73 - 49%	50 - 33%	7 - 4%	1 - 1%
4th Down	0	1 - 33%	1 - 33%	1 - 33%	0
Totals	34 - 5%	353 - 61%	156 - 27%	26 - 4%	2 - 1%

Thanks to John Daigle and Tim Krajewski for their work on the charts and graphs.

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SUMMARY:

Defending Dez Week 16 - WSH

Our weekly look at how the Cowboys took advantage (or, often, didn’t take advantage) of their best offensive weapon. The whole series can be found here.

The term "must-win game" is certainly one that is is overused and misapplied these days, which you might think would lead to a diluting of the intensity of contests that actually fit that bill. Week 16 at Washington indicates that is not the case. Much attention has been paid to the final, game-winning drive the Cowboys offense put together with their season on the line, and rightfully so. Especially given the fact that we now know that march was engineered by a quarterback with a back so injured it would require season-ending surgery. However, the Dallas offense was below average to poor for most of the day, although we also now must consider how much of a factor Romo's health was there as well. Through the first three quarters, Romo was 8-15 for 86 yards, with 1 TD (which we will discuss in a moment), and 1 INT. In the final frame, Romo was 9-12 for 140 yards and the final, decisive touchdown. Again, given the information we have, incredible.

Dez Bryant was more of a factor in this game than he was in the Week 6 win over the Redskins, but not by much. In that first game, Jim Haslett elected to to provide DeAngelo Hall safety help on 16 of 27 routes Bryant ran, limiting Bryant to 5 catches on 8 targets for 36 yards. He was actually much more effective on those routes in which he was "double covered" than the 11 when he was left in single coverage, partially because that coverage often coincided with blitzes that were getting home before routes could properly develop. Let's see how Washington decided to play Dez this time around.

BRYANT AGAINST HELP DEFENSE

Route	Against Help	Targets	Comp.	Yards
Fade	4	1	1	31
Slant/Drag	1	1	0	0
13 Yd. Comeback	1	1	0	0
10-12 Yd. Stop	2	0	0	0
Corner	1	1	0	0
Dig	1	1	0	0
5-7 Yd. Stop	3	0	0	0
10-12 Yd. Out	0	0	0	0
Post	1	0	0	0
Screen Block	0	X	X	X
Screen	0	0	0	0
Double Move	0	0	0	0
	14	5	1	31

BRYANT AGAINST NO HELP

Route	Against Help	Targets	Comp.	Yards
Fade	3	1	0	0 (+5 DEF HOLDING
Slant/Drag	3	1	0	0
13 Yd. Comeback	2	2	1	11
10-12 Yd. Stop	0	0	0	0
Corner	1	1	1	13
Dig	2	1	0	0
5-7 Yd. Stop	0	0	0	0
10-12 Yd. Out	0	0	0	0
Post	0	0	0	0
Screen Block	2	X	X	X
Screen	1	1	1	17
Double Move	1	0	0	0
	15	7	3	41 (+5 DEF HOLDING)

A near 50/50 split. Hall was covering Bryant for much of this game, and again, did a really solid job of it. Dallas only tested the 'Skins deep with no safety help once, and got a defensive holding call out of that play. On average, Bryant is targeted about 10 times a game, so his 12 in this game is not extraordinary. However, for a 12 target day, this is a relatively sub-par return on investment. Romo missed a couple of times, and Bryant had one really bad drop on a dig route on which he had created separation and the throw was on target. In general, an average to below-average game for the Cowboys best offensive weapon. The running game was able to find some measure of success, though, which we should always remember is related to the way a team decides to cover Bryant.

Despite not having a great game, Bryant did make a couple of big plays that helped the Dallas offense do just enough to keep this team's playoffs hopes alive for another week. Both of our visuals this week come from the same second quarter drive. We will start with a play on which Bryant didn't necessarily have to do a ton, but one on which the design was executed perfectly and the desired results were achieved.

2nd Q - 6:08 - 2nd & 6 - WAS 46

After stalling on their previous drive, Dallas now trails Washington 7-6. As we have discussed many times before, the Cowboys do not use playaction near enough in general, as Romo ranks near the bottom of the league in every year that stat has been tracked. Certainly there are times when play fakes can't be leaned on (although no one has told the Eagles or Redskins this), and Washington's aggressive defense is adept at taking this element away from offenses. However, Dallas did dial it up a few times Sunday, and one of those calls lead to the completion we see below.

Dez is split out to the right with Jason Witten tight on the same side. Washington gives a two-safety look, with their corners playing seven yards off. Romo play fakes from the shotgun, which is something the Cowboys have started to do more of late. The safety doesn't really bite on the play fake, but it appears DeAngelo Hall does. Hall might just have straight cover two responsibilities, which would mean turning Bryant lose was the right play, as he needs to cover the flat. However, if that is the case, then the deep safety plays this very poorly by drifting to the middle of the field to help on Witten who is being covered man-to-man. Bryant stutter steps a little bit right when he gets level with Hall, which ties the whole concept together. Whether a blown coverage, a play design that simply matched up well with the called defense, or a combination of both, this was perfect execution all the way around. Romo slides right and steps up which allows him to drive this into the hole in the coverage rather than airing it out and hoping Bryant can get past the recovering safety (unlikely to be a completion given the angles).

That played worked out exactly as it was drawn up. Our second visual…did not.

2nd Q - 4:46 - 3rd & 9 - WAS 14

After that huge completion on the playaction deep ball, DeMarco Murray gained just a yard on first down, and an incompletion on a second down Dez target brought up 3rd and 9. In my view, a touchdown was absolutely necessary here. I have no data to back this up, but I think settling for a field goal on a drive when you complete a big play like the one above is more debilitating to the overall flow of your offense than kicking a field goal on a drive full of smaller gains. Either way, suffice to say that given the final score, every point was important. 

From the gun, Romo has Bryant and Cole Beasley in a tight bunch alignment on the right side. The initial plan is a "levels" concept, with Bryant running the corner and Beasley running the quick out. The idea is for both receivers to make their break at the same time to create a split-second of confusion for the DBs, and that's exactly what happens. Both corners run with Bryant once the break is made, and Beasley is wide open for the first down. I'm fairly certain that if Romo does not get heavy pressure from the left side, he slides right and finds Beasley in the right flat. However, the pressure gets home, and it's time for magic tricks. Romo times his spin perfectly, which takes incredible guts because going too early would allow the defender to recover and change his angle. At the same time, Bryant looks back at  his quarterback and knows he needs to adjust. However, not just any adjustment would do. There is a linebacker floating in the middle of the field near the goal line, and had Dez taken a more flat path, this would not have been a completion. I don't know if it was by accident, or if Bryant was really aware of the high-hole in the defense, but this is one of the better adjustments I've ever seen him make. The throw and the catch both take ridiculous skill, but it's the mental awareness that facilitated the throw and the catch that impress me more.

Now. Clearly, no one feels great about the Cowboys chances Sunday night without their quarterback available to do things like what you see above. However, Week 7 at Philadelphia was one of Bryant's biggest games of the season, and it was by far the most effective he has been attacking the middle of the field. 101 of his 110 yards came on digs, square-ins, slants, and drags. Save for the dig, those are not difficult throws to make. I do not think the Eagles have the secondary to slow Bryant down, plain and simple. They do, however, have the front seven to affect the pocket, so this game may come down to the Cowboys offensive line giving Kyle Orton enough time to let Bryant and Co. go to work. Bryant had 17 targets in that Week 7 win over the Eagles, tied for his season-high. For the Cowboys to realize their goal of winning this division, I think it takes the same type of focus on getting Bryant the ball in the middle of the field with room to run.

Kiffin Report - Week 16 - At Washington

DATA ONLY - VACATION WEEK 

WEEK 16 At Washington

First, a reminder of what a splash play is: 

What is a splash play? Well, for purposes of this blog I believe a splash play will include the following: A sack, a pressure that forces a bad throw, and big hit on the QB, and a batted ball that may lead to an interception opportunity. Again, you can see how this leads to subjectivity, but a subjective breakdown is better than no breakdown at all, I have decided. In addition, a splash play will include tackles for loss, a big hit for a short gain, or a stop which is an open field tackle where a player is pulled down on 3rd down short of the marker because of an exceptional effort from a defender. An interception is clearly a splash play, but so is a defended pass that required a great effort. A major hit in the secondary could be a splash play, but I believe that the outcome of the play will determine that. Sorry, defensive backs, but standing over a guy who just caught a 15 yard pass because you think you hit him hard will not generally pass the test on this blog. So, stop doing it. 

I am trying to be careful about handing out too many splash plays per game. I am trying to be picky, but too extreme in either direction. When I log a splash play, I will put time of the game on the chart so that if you want to review the same game and challenge my ruling, you are welcome to do so. Also, if multiple players deserve recognition on a single play, we will try to see that as well. 

Basically, we are trying to assign a value to making plays on the defense. We don't want to just see sacks and interceptions. We want to see broader definitions of splash plays to assign credit to those who help the Cowboys get off the field in important situations. These rankings will not deduct for negative plays at this point. There are simply too many occasions where we are guessing, and for now, I want to avoid that for this particular idea.  

A splash play is a play that makes a major difference in the game. And by keeping it all season long, we will see which defenders are play makers and which are simply warm bodies. We already have our thoughts on both categories, but let's see if we can dig a bit deeper and actually have numbers to back up our claims.

SPLASHES AT WASHINGTON

Q-Time	D/D/Yd	Player	Play
1-14:48	2/10/O24	Selvie	Tackle For Loss
1-9:52	2/10/D42	Selvie	QB Hit
1-6:26	1/10/D25	Hayden	Run Stuff
2-12:37	1/10/D45	Hayden	Run Stuff
2-2:36	2/8/O35	Hatcher	Run Stuff
2-1:35	1/10/D28	Heath	Heavy QB Pressure
2-0:55	3/10/D28	Heath	Interception
3-13:29	1/10/D33	Church	Big Tackle
3-9:18	2/G/D8	Carr	Pass Defended
3-1:15	2/7/D32	Selvie	Tackle For Loss
4-6:00	2/10/O22	Carter	Run Stuff
4-4:38	1/10/O38	Hayden/Selvie	Run Stuff
4-3:53	3/6/O41	Scandrick	Pass Defended

2013 SEASON TOTALS

Here are the final results for 2011 and here are the final results for 2012.

Player	Splashes
DE George Selvie	25.5
LB Sean Lee	22.5
DT Jason Hatcher	21.5
CB Brandon Carr	20.5
S Barry Church	19.5
DE DeMarcus Ware	16.5
CB Orlando Scandrick	16
LB Bruce Carter	15
DE Kyle Wilber	11
DT Nick Hayden	11
S Jeff Heath	8
DT Drake Nevis	7.5
CB Morris Claiborne	7
LB Justin Durant	5.5
DE Jarius Wynn	5
S Will Allen	3.5
DE Edgar Jones	3
DE Everette Brown	3
CB Sterling Moore	3
S JJ Wilcox	2
LB Ernie Sims	1.5
CB BW Webb	1.5
DT Marvin Austin	1
DE Caesar Rayford	1
Team Totals	231.5

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Pass Rush/Blitzing REPORT

This segment of the defensive study is simply to find out how well the Cowboys are doing at getting pressure on the opposing QB.  We have spent a good part of the offseason talking about Monte Kiffin's philosophy that, like so many of the great 4-3 schemes, is based on using blitz as a weapon, not a necessity.  If you use the blitz as an ambush weapon that is always threatened but only used at the perfect times, you can often get free runs at the QB.  If, on the other hand, you must use the blitz because your normal pressure is not getting it done, then the offense usually is waiting for you and prepared - so even 6 rushers don't accomplish much.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS ALLOWED

Q-Time	D/D/Yd	Play	Rushers
2-11:17	3/2/D37	Cousins to Garcon, +28	5
2-2:00	3/9/O34	Cousins to Garcon, +26	4

SACKS AND INTERCEPTIONS

Q-Time	D/D/Yd	Play	Rushers
2-0:55	3/10/D28	Heath Interception	4

PASSING CHART

Red (Incomplete), Black (Interception), Blue (Complete), and Yellow (Touchdown)

Pass Rushers Against Washington - 39 pass rush/blitz situations:

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	8	1	1
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	1	0	0
Totals	0	9	1	1

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	1	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	8	2	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	1	1	0
Totals	0	10	3	0

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	1	0	1	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	5	0	3
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	1	1	1	0
Totals	2	6	2	3

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	0	1	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Totals	0	0	1	0

7 Rush (Second Level) - 1

And, here are the full season numbers to date:

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush	7 Rush
1st Down	10 - 3%	211 - 79%	34 - 12%	10 - 3%	0
2nd Down	7 - 3%	166 - 84%	20 - 10%	3 - 1%	0
3rd Down	11 - 6%	103 - 61%	27 - 16%	24 - 14%	2 - 1%
4th Down	1 - 7%	9 - 69%	2 - 15%	0	1 - 7%
Totals	29 - 4%	489 - 76%	83 - 12%	37 - 5%	3 - 1%

The game by game pressure numbers sent by the Cowboys:

Wk 1 - NYG: 7/49 - 14%
Wk 2 - KC:   10/43 - 23%
Wk 3 - STL: 11/57 - 19%
Wk 4 - SD:  4/43 - 9%
Wk 5 - DEN: 6/42 - 14%
Wk 6 - WAS: 8/45 - 18%
Wk 7 - PHI:  10/51 - 19%
Wk 8 - DET: 8/49 - 16%
Wk 9 - MIN: 11/41 - 27%
Wk10- NO: 8/43 - 19%
Wk11 - NY: 6/33 - 18%
Wk12 - OAK: 11/29 - 38%
Wk13 - CHI 6/39 - 15%
Wk14 - GB 10/41 - 24%
Wk15 - WAS: 12/39 - 31%

2013 Totals:  128/644 - 19.8%
2012 Totals:  134/551 - 24.3%

SUMMARY: