Issues In Oxnard: Identifying The Best Players On This Defense - Splash Plays

When you discuss the Cowboys defense in 2014 (or any other year), you start with the obvious discussion of who the potential best players could be.  As we examine this particular depth chart, you have to be rather struck with this important quandary.

Who are the best players on defense?  Where is the star power going to come from in 2014?  If every player on the defense was made available to the entire league, who would be snapped up first as the most coveted players?  And amongst them, who would be required the biggest check?

Regardless of how many feel about the results of spending $50m on Brandon Carr, I would argue that he has been a very solid player for the Cowboys and while maybe he has been slightly less than dominant, he has played every single game and has put up results on most of those occasions.  If they have been a poor defense since his arrival, it would be difficult to pin the failures on Carr - He is simply no match for Calvin Johnson or Brandon Marshall, but then again, without much safety assistance, who is?

Beyond Carr, you then get into the discussion of who is next?  Would Orlando Scandrick be that guy?  Quite possibly.  In fact, if you want to know who would be grabbed by the competition the quickest in a hypothetical reallocation draft from the Cowboys defense, the Top 3 picks might all be corner backs.  With Carr, Scandrick, and the underachieving and even disappointing Morris Claiborne.  Claiborne has plenty of ability, but if anyone needs to demonstrate their true value on the football field (and start by playing every game), it is the #6 overall selection of the 2012 draft.  Of course, Claiborne would be a "potential over performance" play, but I think he might be the 3rd guy taken.

If he isn't, then surely George Selvie is.  In his 5th year in the NFL at his 4th organization, he finally put it together last season with 7 sacks and is now a year away from perhaps being a real coveted player in free agency at the age of 28 (he will turn 28 in March).  Nothing pays in the NFL like sacks, and if he can find his way to 10 or so this year, he will get paid well.

Then, we look to a healing Henry Melton.  But, I imagine he has to prove what he can do with a healed knee and a lesser supporting cast.  Everyone hopes he will be dominant (or at least 2013 Jason Hatcher), but the football world has only seen him play dominant football when surrounded by 3 HOF caliber players on his front 7.  If Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher, and Julius Peppers from 2010-2012 were coming with him, it would be easier to project him.  At this point, there might be some questions that require answering.

Barry Church might be next or the ability of Bruce Carter.  After that, Tyrone Crawford, JJ Wilcox, and Kyle Wilber would likely all be next as players who have yet to prove much at this level, but bright prospects who have legitimate futures.  And, of course, DeMarcus Lawrence would be ahead of all of them if he was healthy and threaten the Top 5.

Let's put it this way, there is talent on the defense, but it is really an interesting discussion when you try to weigh one against the next.

Measuring individual value on a defense is always quite tricky.  For instance, a great corner looks much better with the help of a pass rush.  He can only defend so long.  Conversely, if a pass rush has no coverage behind them, then they don't have time to get home.  Even more so than offense, one weak link can really sabotage the overall success of a defense.

All of this has led me to attempt to measure "splash plays" in this space since the start of the 2011 season.  The idea was that if we can at least tabulate the real great moments, we will have a better idea of who is performing from week to week and who is spending more time in the background.

Splash plays are absolutely a flawed stat, but it is better than not measuring at all (at least that is what I tell myself).

What is a splash play? Well, for purposes of this blog I believe a splash play will include the following: A sack, a pressure that forces a bad throw, and big hit on the QB, and a batted ball that may lead to an interception opportunity. Again, you can see how this leads to subjectivity, but a subjective breakdown is better than no breakdown at all, I have decided. In addition, a splash play will include tackles for loss, a big hit for a short gain, or a stop which is an open field tackle where a player is pulled down on 3rd down short of the marker because of an exceptional effort from a defender. An interception is clearly a splash play, but so is a defended pass that required a great effort. A major hit in the secondary could be a splash play, but I believe that the outcome of the play will determine that. Sorry, defensive backs, but standing over a guy who just caught a 15 yard pass because you think you hit him hard will not generally pass the test on this blog. So, stop doing it.  

I am trying to be careful about handing out too many splash plays per game. I am trying to be picky, but too extreme in either direction. When I log a splash play, I will put time of the game on the chart so that if you want to review the same game and challenge my ruling, you are welcome to do so. Also, if multiple players deserve recognition on a single play, we will try to see that as well.

Basically, we are trying to assign a value to making plays on the defense. We don't want to just see sacks and interceptions. We want to see broader definitions of splash plays to assign credit to those who help the Cowboys get off the field in important situations. These rankings will not deduct for negative plays at this point. There are simply too many occasions where we are guessing, and for now, I want to avoid that for this particular idea.

A splash play is a play that makes a major difference in the game. And by keeping it all season long, we will see which defenders are play makers and which are simply warm bodies. We already have our thoughts on both categories, but let's see if we can dig a bit deeper and actually have numbers to back up our claims.

OK.  So, allow me to review the season totals from 2013 - a year where the defense put this reputation of having maybe the worst defense in the industry on film:

2013 Splash Play Totals

Player	Wks 1-4	Wks 5-8	Wks 9-12	Wks 13-16	Totals
1. G Selvie	9	7.5	3.5	8	28
2. J Hatcher	7.5	8	5	5.5	26
3. S Lee	9	12	1.5	0	22.5
4. B Carr	3	10.5	4	3	20.5
5. B Church	8	6	3	2.5	19.5
6. D Ware	7	3	4	5	19
7. O Scandrick	1	5	6	6	18
8. B Carter	5	3	4	4	16
9. N Hayden	3.5	0	3	8	14.5
10. K Wilber	1	4	4.5	1.5	11
11. J Heath	0	1	0.5	6.5	8
12. D Nevis	0	2	4.5	1	7.5
13. J Wynn	0	2	1.5	3.5	7
14. M Claiborne	2	5	0	0	7
15. J Durant	1.5	1	2	1	5.5

The players above who are in bold are those who are returning.  As you can see, health plays a major role in the rankings.  Stay on the field and you have a chance.  So, for Sean Lee, Claiborne, and DeMarcus Ware, it is tough to perform to your normal levels of excellence if you aren't out there.

By looking at the season in segments of 4 games, you can definitely see the value of good health and also you can examine how a player might have done when the league is now aware of him and taking him more seriously than a warm body.  George Selvie looked like he was fading in November but did step up a few more times in December quite nicely.

Aside from Claiborne, the biggest disappointment here has to be Bruce Carter.  One year ago, the training camp raves were all about the idea that this new defense is going to be perfect for him to set up as Derrick Brooks or Lance Briggs at the Will Linebacker.  The scheme allows him to generally run free and make the plays that the rest of the front in the scheme should make available for him.

Most point to pass defense as the big issue for Carter (and Danny Woodhead did put that out there for all the world to see), but in reality, the bigger issue at that particular spot - and one reason why he is on a very short leash according to some in the organization - is his work against the run.  For your stomach's sake, don't watch his performance in New Orleans.  There are some inside that think Justin Durant can do better at the Will spot right now.  That is certainly discouraging to all who thought Carter was worth the trouble in any scheme change.  

Below, please find the 3-year standings on the Splash Play project.  A more in depth study would measure splashes per snap, but I don't want to confuse things even more to the newbies.  So, this is the raw numbers of just big plays on the defense by player.

To the shock of nobody, DeMarcus Ware has a sizable lead on everyone and barring an insane comeback season from Anthony Spencer (who still doesn't not appear close to even practice speed) will be the leader to start 2015 and maybe 2016, too.

Ware might have been slipping a bit with his last 2 banged up years, but as you can see, a bad year of D-Ware is still better than good years by most.  

2011-2013 SPLASH LEADERBOARD

Player	2011	2012	2013	Totals
1. D Ware	39	30	19	88
2. A Spencer	29	38	0	67
3. S Lee	25	10	22.5	57.5
4. J Hatcher	13	16.5	26	55.5
5. O Scandrick	16	5	18	39
6. B Carr	---	13	20.5	33.5
7. B Carter	1	15	16	32
8. J Ratliff	24	6	---	30
9. G Selvie	---	---	28	28
10. B Church	3	1	19.5	23.5
11. M Claiborne	---	16	7	23
12. V Butler	10	8	---	18
13. N Hayden	---	---	14.5	14.5
14. M Spears	8	6	---	14
15. S Lissemore	8	5	---	13

So there is some information to chew on as we evaluate where they are at as a defense.  Clearly, they are banking on a lot of players emerging without reputation and honestly, in the NFL, that is the most efficient way to go.  You want to build your defense around young players who have a chance to grow together, and hopefully Lawrence, Crawford, Wilcox, and Wilber, will join Carter, Claiborne, and the veteran defensive backs to start digging out of this hole.

But, there is plenty of work to be done.  More than plenty.

Kiffin Report: Week 17 - Philadelphia - Takeaways Dried Up In December

There are a number of reasons why I don't gamble, not the least of which being that I realize from simple tracking of old predictions that I wouldn't be very good at it.  Clearly, most gamblers don't run this simple self-experiment to authorize their own practices, but that is not my business.

Regardless, an easy prediction going into Sunday is that we were due for yet another game where the Cowboys concede over 400 yards (8 times this year) and over 30 points (7 times this year).  Injuries, fatigue, and opponent combined with past performance to say that they were likely to lose the Philadelphia game simply because nobody could forecast a scenario where the defense could hold firm enough for a backup QB like Kyle Orton to put them in a winnable position.

And yet, the defense did a fantastic job.  They surely did not duplicate the work of Week 7 in Philadelphia when they held the mighty Chip Kelly offense to 278 yards, 3 points, and 3 turnovers, but to keep the Eagles to 366 and 24 points said that this bruised and battered defense at least gave you all it had in the final 2 "must win" games of the season at Washington and home to Philadelphia.

They played admirably well as a unit and forced many punts and even had a heroic goal-line stand that almost won the division.  But, despite 5 sacks, and maybe because the offense did not pull its weight in the final drive of the season, the unit came up short.

One of the big issues of having the 2013 Cowboys defense (and there were many, was the simple reliance on takeaways.  This was a defense that did a fine job of taking the ball from its opponent for most of the year, despite lacking a dominant posture over its opponents (like Seattle or San Francisco often do), but it did fade as the season went to its ultimate climax.

COWBOYS TAKEAWAYS BY SEGMENTS OF SEASON:

Games 1-4	Games 5-8	Games 9-12	Games 13-16
8	11	6	3
16.6% blitz	17.1% blitz	23% blitz	27% blitz

As you can see, I added another column at the bottom to show the correlation (or lack, thereof) between blitzing and takeaways.  We spent a lot of time previously demonstrating that despite Jerry's belief, the Cowboys are horrendous at blitzing and actually force fewer takeaways by bringing more and weakening your coverage behind it.  And, as predicted, this wasn't going to have the effects he desired.

There are plenty of cliches in sports that would summarize statistical breakdowns, and I believe the one that is most fitting would have to be "live by the takeaway, die by the takeaway."  They were doing great all season with takeaways and at one point sat on top of the league with Seattle for having as 18 after 8 games and on pace for the highest total a Cowboys defense has seen in ages.  However, that pace did not sustain, and by the time December ended, what was once #2 in the NFC had dropped all the way to #10 and with 28 takeaways on the year.  And the average takeaway total for the 16 NFC teams?  27.1.

So, a team that was bottom of the league in yards allowed per game (32nd), in explosive plays allowed (tied for 31st), and points allowed (26th), also ended up middle of the pack in takeaways and thus left the defense without anything to hang their hats on.

Here are the last 12 seasons by Takeaways and Differential:

Year	Takeaways	Turnover +/-
2002	30	-4
2003 ***	25	-4
2004	22	-15
2005	26	-1
2006 ***	30	+4
2007 ***	29	+5
2008	22	-11
2009 ***	21	+2
2010	30	Even
2011	25	+4
2012	16	-13
2013	28	+10

*** = Denotes Years Dallas Made the Playoffs

As you can see, +10 almost always gets you in the playoffs, but 28 takeaways - while better than 2012 by quite a bit - was not by any stretch a huge number by even Cowboys standards of the last decade.

Here is the record over the last 6 seasons for how important the turnover battle remains - so much so that they are able to overcome a number of other obvious weaknesses and still win games.

2008-2013	Win-Loss	Win %
When Cowboys win Turnovers	30-8	78.9%
When Cowboys lose Turnovers	10-32	23.8%
Winner of Turnover Battle in Dallas Games	62-18	77.5%

The Cowboys only lost the turnover battle in 4 games all season.  Unfortunately, aside from Kansas City, the other 3 games were games #14, #15, and #16.  That is not ideal timing.

WEEK 17 Against Philadelphia

First, a reminder of what a splash play is: 

What is a splash play? Well, for purposes of this blog I believe a splash play will include the following: A sack, a pressure that forces a bad throw, and big hit on the QB, and a batted ball that may lead to an interception opportunity. Again, you can see how this leads to subjectivity, but a subjective breakdown is better than no breakdown at all, I have decided. In addition, a splash play will include tackles for loss, a big hit for a short gain, or a stop which is an open field tackle where a player is pulled down on 3rd down short of the marker because of an exceptional effort from a defender. An interception is clearly a splash play, but so is a defended pass that required a great effort. A major hit in the secondary could be a splash play, but I believe that the outcome of the play will determine that. Sorry, defensive backs, but standing over a guy who just caught a 15 yard pass because you think you hit him hard will not generally pass the test on this blog. So, stop doing it. 

I am trying to be careful about handing out too many splash plays per game. I am trying to be picky, but too extreme in either direction. When I log a splash play, I will put time of the game on the chart so that if you want to review the same game and challenge my ruling, you are welcome to do so. Also, if multiple players deserve recognition on a single play, we will try to see that as well. 

Basically, we are trying to assign a value to making plays on the defense. We don't want to just see sacks and interceptions. We want to see broader definitions of splash plays to assign credit to those who help the Cowboys get off the field in important situations. These rankings will not deduct for negative plays at this point. There are simply too many occasions where we are guessing, and for now, I want to avoid that for this particular idea.  

A splash play is a play that makes a major difference in the game. And by keeping it all season long, we will see which defenders are play makers and which are simply warm bodies. We already have our thoughts on both categories, but let's see if we can dig a bit deeper and actually have numbers to back up our claims.

SPLASHES vs Philadelphia

What a year and what a game for George Selvie.  He certainly had weeks where he faded out of sight, but to finish as strong as he did really has to make people feel reasonably strong about his future here.

Q-Time	D/D/Yd	Player	Play
1-9:21	1/10/D36	Selvie/Ware	QB Stop
1-8:45	2/10/D36	Selvie	Holding Drawn
1-3:19	1/10/O29	Selvie	Tackle For Loss
1-0:45	1/10/D36	Carter/Wynn	Grounding Drawn
2-12:20	2/4/O24	Wynn/Ware	Tackle For Loss
2-11:35	3/5/O23	Hatcher	QB Sack
2-8:16	1/10/O20	Scandrick	Tackle For Loss
2-6:25	1/10/O39	Hayden	Big QB Pressure
2-5:48	1/10/D45	Wynn	QB Sack
3-15:00	1/10/O20	Holloman	QB Sack
3-14:08	3/3/O27	Hayden	Big QB Pressure
3-8:30	1/10/O34	Hatcher/Ware	Tackle For Loss
3-7:52	3/11/O33	Hatcher (2)	QB Sack and Strip
3-7:52	3/11/O33	Ware	Fumble Recovery
3-5:38	1/10/O20	Holloman	Run Stuff
3-5:11	3/10/O20	Hatcher	Big QB Pressure
3-1:06	3/G/D6	Scandrick	Big Stop
3-0:38	4/G/D1	Hayden/Carter	Goal-line Stop
4-11:46	1/10/O40	Holloman	Run Stuff
4-10:08	2/2/D33	Hayden	Run Stuff
4-2:19	3/4/O22	Holloman	QB Sack

2013 SEASON TOTALS

Here are the final results for 2011 and here are the final results for 2012.

Player	Splashes
DE George Selvie	28
DT Jason Hatcher	26
LB Sean Lee	22.5
CB Brandon Carr	20.5
S Barry Church	19.5
DE DeMarcus Ware	19
CB Orlando Scandrick	18
LB Bruce Carter	16
DT Nick Hayden	14.5
DE Kyle Wilber	11
S Jeff Heath	8
DT Drake Nevis	7.5
CB Morris Claiborne	7
DE Jarius Wynn	7
LB Justin Durant	5.5
LB Davonte Holloman	4
S Will Allen	3.5
DE Everette Brown	3
CB Sterling Moore	3
DE Edgar Jones	3
S JJ Wilcox	2
CB BW Webb	1.5
LB Ernie Sims	1.5
DE Caesar Rayford	1
DT Marvin Austin	1
Team Totals	253.5

===========

Pass Rush/Blitzing REPORT

This segment of the defensive study is simply to find out how well the Cowboys are doing at getting pressure on the opposing QB.  We have spent a good part of the offseason talking about Monte Kiffin's philosophy that, like so many of the great 4-3 schemes, is based on using blitz as a weapon, not a necessity.  If you use the blitz as an ambush weapon that is always threatened but only used at the perfect times, you can often get free runs at the QB.  If, on the other hand, you must use the blitz because your normal pressure is not getting it done, then the offense usually is waiting for you and prepared - so even 6 rushers don't accomplish much.

What happened in the final game was much less about having blitzes burned rather than just having coverage confusion and mismatches that were exploited by a scheme that tries to focus on that exact strategy.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS ALLOWED

Q-Time	D/D/Yd	Play	Rushers
1-10:02	3/3/O30	Foles to Polk, +34	4
1-1:22	1/10/O44	McCoy Run, +20	3
1-0:37	2/20/D46	Foles to Jackson, +20	4
2-15:00	2/9/D25	Foles to Avant, +22	5
2-1:53	1/10/D49	Foles to Celek, +35	3
3-1:51	1/10/D28	Foles to Celek, +22	5

SACKS AND INTERCEPTIONS

Q-Time	D/D/Yd	Play	Rushers
2-11:35	3/5/O23	Hatcher Sack	5
2-5:48	1/10/D45	Wynn Sack	4
3-15:00	1/10/O20	Holloman Sack	5
3-7:52	3/11/O33	Hatcher Sack	4
4-2:19	3/4/O22	Holloman Sack	4

PASSING CHART

Red (Incomplete), Black (Interception), Blue (Complete), and Yellow (Touchdown)

Pass Rushers Against Philadelphia - 29 pass rush/blitz situations:

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	5	6	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Totals	0	5	6	0

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	2	1	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	3	1	0
Totals	0	5	2	0

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	3	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	1	1	1
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	3	1	0
Totals	0	7	2	1

7 Rush (1) - Second Level

And, here are the full season numbers to date:

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush	7 Rush
1st Down	10 - 3%	216 - 78%	40 - 14%	10 - 3%	0
2nd Down	7 - 3%	171 - 84%	22 - 10%	3 - 1%	0
3rd Down	11 - 6%	110 - 61%	29 - 16%	25 - 14%	3 - 1%
4th Down	1 - 7%	9 - 69%	2 - 15%	0	1 - 7%
Totals	29 - 4%	506 - 75%	93 - 13%	38 - 5%	4 - 1%

The game by game pressure numbers sent by the Cowboys:

Wk 1 - NYG: 7/49 - 14%
Wk 2 - KC:   10/43 - 23%
Wk 3 - STL: 11/57 - 19%
Wk 4 - SD:  4/43 - 9%
Wk 5 - DEN: 6/42 - 14%
Wk 6 - WAS: 8/45 - 18%
Wk 7 - PHI:  10/51 - 19%
Wk 8 - DET: 8/49 - 16%
Wk 9 - MIN: 11/41 - 27%
Wk10- NO: 8/43 - 19%
Wk12 - NY: 6/33 - 18%
Wk13 - OAK: 11/29 - 38%
Wk14 - CHI 6/39 - 15%
Wk15 - GB 10/41 - 24%
Wk16 - WASH 12/39 - 31%
Wk17 - PHI 12/29 - 41%

2013 Totals:  140/673 - 20.8%
2012 Totals:  134/551 - 24.3%

SUMMARY:  Well, that settles it.  The defense, which has not been a strength of this team since 2009, might have bottomed out in many respects in 2013.  To blame injuries as a whole is absurd, given that this defense - even at full strength - was ill-conceived from jump as we said back in April, May, June, and July in this very space.  They did not fortify their scheme change with personnel additions and were dangerously old and thin at too many key spots.  

Then, the injuries came and made a bad situation worse.  The final analysis will likely lay all of this at the ideas and scheme of Monte Kiffin, but I wouldn't be in that camp at all.  They tried, as Jerry Jones does year after year, to fix problems with smoke and mirrors, and yet again, a silly idea to change schemes but not add significant personnel was doomed from the start and while some might actually buy that it was simply the bad luck of the medical room, that would not be doing this story justice.  To blame Kiffin, who a year ago today wasn't even here, for a problem that existed long before his arrival is falling for the ridiculous shell game that is perpetrated on a fan base annually from the highest offices at Valley Ranch.  

Regardless, the Cowboys defense brought as much to the table as they could in Game #15 at Washington and Game #16 at Philadelphia and did exactly what you had hoped, which was at least offer some resistance (unlike New Orleans, Chicago, and the 2nd half of Green Bay) and give the offense a chance to keep up.

Perhaps everything is different if Kyle Orton can string a drive together late or if Tony Romo's back holds up, but we all know that overall the defense of 2012 - which was bad - was actually made worse with the schematic changes and personnel adjustments of 2013.  

We assume the return to full health of Sean Lee, Tyrone Crawford, Ben Bass, and perhaps a few more longshot names like Matt Johnson could factor back into the mix in 2014, but we must also assume we have seen the last of Jason Hatcher and Anthony Spencer and the contract of DeMarcus Ware is a discussion worth having.  

These discussions and many more will continue to happen starting next week and throughout the off-season.  However, for now, expect changes to be announced soon and this 2013 to finally be put to bed.  

Kiffin Report - Week 16 - At Washington

DATA ONLY - VACATION WEEK 

WEEK 16 At Washington

First, a reminder of what a splash play is: 

What is a splash play? Well, for purposes of this blog I believe a splash play will include the following: A sack, a pressure that forces a bad throw, and big hit on the QB, and a batted ball that may lead to an interception opportunity. Again, you can see how this leads to subjectivity, but a subjective breakdown is better than no breakdown at all, I have decided. In addition, a splash play will include tackles for loss, a big hit for a short gain, or a stop which is an open field tackle where a player is pulled down on 3rd down short of the marker because of an exceptional effort from a defender. An interception is clearly a splash play, but so is a defended pass that required a great effort. A major hit in the secondary could be a splash play, but I believe that the outcome of the play will determine that. Sorry, defensive backs, but standing over a guy who just caught a 15 yard pass because you think you hit him hard will not generally pass the test on this blog. So, stop doing it. 

I am trying to be careful about handing out too many splash plays per game. I am trying to be picky, but too extreme in either direction. When I log a splash play, I will put time of the game on the chart so that if you want to review the same game and challenge my ruling, you are welcome to do so. Also, if multiple players deserve recognition on a single play, we will try to see that as well. 

Basically, we are trying to assign a value to making plays on the defense. We don't want to just see sacks and interceptions. We want to see broader definitions of splash plays to assign credit to those who help the Cowboys get off the field in important situations. These rankings will not deduct for negative plays at this point. There are simply too many occasions where we are guessing, and for now, I want to avoid that for this particular idea.  

A splash play is a play that makes a major difference in the game. And by keeping it all season long, we will see which defenders are play makers and which are simply warm bodies. We already have our thoughts on both categories, but let's see if we can dig a bit deeper and actually have numbers to back up our claims.

SPLASHES AT WASHINGTON

Q-Time	D/D/Yd	Player	Play
1-14:48	2/10/O24	Selvie	Tackle For Loss
1-9:52	2/10/D42	Selvie	QB Hit
1-6:26	1/10/D25	Hayden	Run Stuff
2-12:37	1/10/D45	Hayden	Run Stuff
2-2:36	2/8/O35	Hatcher	Run Stuff
2-1:35	1/10/D28	Heath	Heavy QB Pressure
2-0:55	3/10/D28	Heath	Interception
3-13:29	1/10/D33	Church	Big Tackle
3-9:18	2/G/D8	Carr	Pass Defended
3-1:15	2/7/D32	Selvie	Tackle For Loss
4-6:00	2/10/O22	Carter	Run Stuff
4-4:38	1/10/O38	Hayden/Selvie	Run Stuff
4-3:53	3/6/O41	Scandrick	Pass Defended

2013 SEASON TOTALS

Here are the final results for 2011 and here are the final results for 2012.

Player	Splashes
DE George Selvie	25.5
LB Sean Lee	22.5
DT Jason Hatcher	21.5
CB Brandon Carr	20.5
S Barry Church	19.5
DE DeMarcus Ware	16.5
CB Orlando Scandrick	16
LB Bruce Carter	15
DE Kyle Wilber	11
DT Nick Hayden	11
S Jeff Heath	8
DT Drake Nevis	7.5
CB Morris Claiborne	7
LB Justin Durant	5.5
DE Jarius Wynn	5
S Will Allen	3.5
DE Edgar Jones	3
DE Everette Brown	3
CB Sterling Moore	3
S JJ Wilcox	2
LB Ernie Sims	1.5
CB BW Webb	1.5
DT Marvin Austin	1
DE Caesar Rayford	1
Team Totals	231.5

===========

Pass Rush/Blitzing REPORT

This segment of the defensive study is simply to find out how well the Cowboys are doing at getting pressure on the opposing QB.  We have spent a good part of the offseason talking about Monte Kiffin's philosophy that, like so many of the great 4-3 schemes, is based on using blitz as a weapon, not a necessity.  If you use the blitz as an ambush weapon that is always threatened but only used at the perfect times, you can often get free runs at the QB.  If, on the other hand, you must use the blitz because your normal pressure is not getting it done, then the offense usually is waiting for you and prepared - so even 6 rushers don't accomplish much.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS ALLOWED

Q-Time	D/D/Yd	Play	Rushers
2-11:17	3/2/D37	Cousins to Garcon, +28	5
2-2:00	3/9/O34	Cousins to Garcon, +26	4

SACKS AND INTERCEPTIONS

Q-Time	D/D/Yd	Play	Rushers
2-0:55	3/10/D28	Heath Interception	4

PASSING CHART

Red (Incomplete), Black (Interception), Blue (Complete), and Yellow (Touchdown)

Pass Rushers Against Washington - 39 pass rush/blitz situations:

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	8	1	1
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	1	0	0
Totals	0	9	1	1

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	1	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	8	2	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	1	1	0
Totals	0	10	3	0

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	1	0	1	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	5	0	3
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	1	1	1	0
Totals	2	6	2	3

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	0	1	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Totals	0	0	1	0

7 Rush (Second Level) - 1

And, here are the full season numbers to date:

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush	7 Rush
1st Down	10 - 3%	211 - 79%	34 - 12%	10 - 3%	0
2nd Down	7 - 3%	166 - 84%	20 - 10%	3 - 1%	0
3rd Down	11 - 6%	103 - 61%	27 - 16%	24 - 14%	2 - 1%
4th Down	1 - 7%	9 - 69%	2 - 15%	0	1 - 7%
Totals	29 - 4%	489 - 76%	83 - 12%	37 - 5%	3 - 1%

The game by game pressure numbers sent by the Cowboys:

Wk 1 - NYG: 7/49 - 14%
Wk 2 - KC:   10/43 - 23%
Wk 3 - STL: 11/57 - 19%
Wk 4 - SD:  4/43 - 9%
Wk 5 - DEN: 6/42 - 14%
Wk 6 - WAS: 8/45 - 18%
Wk 7 - PHI:  10/51 - 19%
Wk 8 - DET: 8/49 - 16%
Wk 9 - MIN: 11/41 - 27%
Wk10- NO: 8/43 - 19%
Wk11 - NY: 6/33 - 18%
Wk12 - OAK: 11/29 - 38%
Wk13 - CHI 6/39 - 15%
Wk14 - GB 10/41 - 24%
Wk15 - WAS: 12/39 - 31%

2013 Totals:  128/644 - 19.8%
2012 Totals:  134/551 - 24.3%

SUMMARY:

Kiffin Report - Week 15 - Green Bay - Halftime Adjustments Beat Up The Blitz

Surely, one of the most bizarre games in the storied histories of both the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers occurred on Sunday - with what could be lasting effects on both sides.  One team is rushing to inexplicably work its way back to its division title thanks to that miracle and the foot of Ravens kicker Justin Tucker.  The other team now has its back squarely against the wall and observers are sifting through names to see who Vegas might place as the favorite to become its next head coach in the next month.

This is a game, from a Dallas standpoint, that shows us that a coaching staff must all be on the same page and enjoy a global view of the best way to win a game.  This is why I think Jason Garrett committed the unpardonable sin by allowing his offense to play recklessly with the clock and expose his defense to 5 drives in the 2nd half - of which Green Bay found 34 points.  For the offense to abandon the run - especially leaving it up to the QB to decide - and trot the defense out again after playing as well as they possibly could in the first half just seems to demonstrate that one hand is seldom aware of the other hand.  Then, the defense, after doing a nice job for most of the game kept allowing Matt Flynn and Andrew Quarless to put on a 3rd Down clinic against a Cowboys blitz that has not been effective all year.  

As we discussed last week, thanks to their owner and general manager diagnosing that he would want to blitz more, the Cowboys blitzed more early on.  And although there are a number of other issues to the game, it might be interesting to examine how poorly that went.

First, a reminder of my conclusion from last week:

I expect the Cowboys will blitz more than they have all season on Sunday against a team that has one win in their last 6 games.  It might work, because Green Bay has very little self confidence and you could certainly argue they are ripe for the picking - especially if #12 isn't under center for them.   

But, the larger issue here is that they are about to do something (blitz more) that A) they are very poor at (as mentioned above, they are the single worst blitzing team in the entire sport, B) they just fired a guy who is great at blitzing, and C) they just hired a guy who has never believed much in blitzing at the expense of weakening his coverage options.   

So, they will do it and it might even work reasonably well in the small samples, but there has never really been anything that seems more predictably awful for this team to try than to play a "we just need to take more risks" defense.  

It might fall under the "its so crazy it just might work" heading, but there is no sustainability here and certainly no magic page in the playbook that you turn to when you just want more turnovers.  If that page existed, it would be used every week.  

And when we look at the bad things that happen when the Cowboys do decide to blitz, what are those?  Well, it starts with bringing 5 or 6 at the QB, which shows us that there is generally only one possible coverage behind that, which is a 1-deep, man under.  And who is playing the man to man underneath?  Jeff Heath, Cam Lawrence, and even George Selvie.  That is why the Cowboys were pulled down on Sunday repeatedly by a guy named Andrew Quarless, who before Sunday was most famous for breaking Joe Paterno's leg back when he was at Penn State.

Here is the stat from BEFORE Sunday when the Cowboys blitz:

NFL QBs are 67 of 101 for 952 yards and 5 TDs and just 1 INT against the Cowboys blitz this year for a stupendous QB rating of 109.1, which would rate them dead last in the NFL at 32nd in a 32 team league. 

So, on Sunday, the Cowboys tried 10 blitzes.  One resulted in a sack by Orlando Scandrick in the 1st drive of the game although another was taken 40 yards by James Jones on a slant.  All told, against 10 blitzes, the Packers went 5-8 for 121 yards for a QB Rating of 106.25.  In addition, there was 1 sack and another pass interference call on Brandon Carr for 31 yards.  And most damaging, when the Cowboys could not get off the field, they assisted the Packers in moving the chains on simple passes from Flynn to Quarless over and over again to beat the blitz.

Let's look at them which all occurred in the 2nd half and could easily be placed under the heading of half-time adjustments to help Flynn put a drive or five together:

Here is 3rd and 8 in the 3rd Quarter and you can see that the Cowboys blitz 5 with the idea that George Selvie should handle Quarless 1on 1.  Quarless crosses his face with ease and Flynn has to fit a short but accurate pass on the money because Selvie does a pretty solid job of contesting it.  22 yard gain and 1st down on the skinny slant.

Here is a 3rd and 6 in the 4th Quarter.  Cowboys blitz 5 again and Quarless basically runs another slant against Jeff Heath for 14 yards as Flynn - not know for his arm strength is completing most of his damaging passes between the hash marks right in front of him.  Quick throws don't allow the blitz time to get home and the pass is again on Quarless in a hurry.

And then this one, which the Cowboys brought 6 and required both RBs to sort the blitz carefully to give Flynn time.  This is the 1st play after the Sam Shields interception so it is highly possible the Cowbys are thinking Eddie Lacy run here on 1st and 10, but instead, another 18 yards to Quarless.

6 receptions for Quarless on 6 targets.  They did miss on the 2-point conversion to him against Jeff Heath, but otherwise, the TE who is only on the field because Jermichael Finley was injured was able to have quite a day as the solution to the Cowboys blitz.


WEEK 15 Versus Green Bay

First, a reminder of what a splash play is: 

What is a splash play? Well, for purposes of this blog I believe a splash play will include the following: A sack, a pressure that forces a bad throw, and big hit on the QB, and a batted ball that may lead to an interception opportunity. Again, you can see how this leads to subjectivity, but a subjective breakdown is better than no breakdown at all, I have decided. In addition, a splash play will include tackles for loss, a big hit for a short gain, or a stop which is an open field tackle where a player is pulled down on 3rd down short of the marker because of an exceptional effort from a defender. An interception is clearly a splash play, but so is a defended pass that required a great effort. A major hit in the secondary could be a splash play, but I believe that the outcome of the play will determine that. Sorry, defensive backs, but standing over a guy who just caught a 15 yard pass because you think you hit him hard will not generally pass the test on this blog. So, stop doing it. 

I am trying to be careful about handing out too many splash plays per game. I am trying to be picky, but too extreme in either direction. When I log a splash play, I will put time of the game on the chart so that if you want to review the same game and challenge my ruling, you are welcome to do so. Also, if multiple players deserve recognition on a single play, we will try to see that as well. 

Basically, we are trying to assign a value to making plays on the defense. We don't want to just see sacks and interceptions. We want to see broader definitions of splash plays to assign credit to those who help the Cowboys get off the field in important situations. These rankings will not deduct for negative plays at this point. There are simply too many occasions where we are guessing, and for now, I want to avoid that for this particular idea.  

A splash play is a play that makes a major difference in the game. And by keeping it all season long, we will see which defenders are play makers and which are simply warm bodies. We already have our thoughts on both categories, but let's see if we can dig a bit deeper and actually have numbers to back up our claims.

SPLASHES VS Green Bay

A very nice day for Sterling Moore.  Everytime he gets a chance in the NFL, he makes plays.  It really makes me wonder why he gets cut so often.  I have always enjoyed his work and he continues to get it done now that the Cowboys have called him back again and he stayed ready.  Good for him.

Q-Time	D/D/Yd	Player	Play
1-9:45	1/10/D37	Wilber	Tackle For Loss
1-8:21	3/6/D33	Scandrick	Sack
1-4:52	1/10/O20	Selvie	Tackle For Loss
1-4:03	2/20/O10	Durant	Tackle For Loss
1-0:21	1/10/D49	Selvie	Sack
2-10:49	1/10/O30	Hayden	Run Stuff
2-10:15	2/9/O31	Ware	Heavy QB Pressure
2-5:06	1/10/O32	Scandrick	Holding Drawn
2-4:50	1/20/O22	Moore	Interception
2-0:19	1/10/O35	Moore	Pass Defended
3-6:25	1/10/O20	Ware/Church	Heavy QB Pressure
3-4:35	2/5/O49	Brown	Tackle For Loss
3-3:28	1/10/D35	Carr	Pass Defended
3-0:01	1/10/D22	Church	Tackle For Loss
4-7:21	1/10/O31	Wynn	Pass Batted Down
4-5:10	1/10/D34	Moore	Pass Defended

2013 SEASON TOTALS

Here are the final results for 2011 and here are the final results for 2012.

Player	Splashes
LB Sean Lee	22.5
DE George Selvie	22
DT Jason Hatcher	20.5
CB Brandon Carr	19.5
S Barry Church	18.5
DE DeMarcus Ware	16.5
CB Orlando Scandrick	15
LB Bruce Carter	14
DE Kyle Wilber	11
DT Nick Hayden	8.5
DT Drake Nevis	7.5
CB Morris Claiborne	7
S Jeff Heath	6
LB Justin Durant	5.5
DE Jarius Wynn	5
S Will Allen	3.5
DE Edgar Jones	3
DE Everette Brown	3
CB Sterling Moore	3
S JJ Wilcox	2
LB Ernie Sims	1.5
CB BW Webb	1.5
DT Marvin Austin	1
DE Caesar Rayford	1
Team Totals	218.5

===========

Pass Rush/Blitzing REPORT

This segment of the defensive study is simply to find out how well the Cowboys are doing at getting pressure on the opposing QB.  We have spent a good part of the offseason talking about Monte Kiffin's philosophy that, like so many of the great 4-3 schemes, is based on using blitz as a weapon, not a necessity.  If you use the blitz as an ambush weapon that is always threatened but only used at the perfect times, you can often get free runs at the QB.  If, on the other hand, you must use the blitz because your normal pressure is not getting it done, then the offense usually is waiting for you and prepared - so even 6 rushers don't accomplish much.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS ALLOWED

Q-Time	D/D/Yd	Play	Rushers
1-10:20	2/6/O24	Flynn to J. Jones, +39	5
2-0:03	3/1/O44	Flynn to Lacy, +34	3
3-15:00	1/10/O20	Lacy Run, +60	4
3-5:41	3/8/O22	Flynn to Quarless, +22	5
3-3:52	3/10/O44	Flynn to Nelson, +21	4

4-5:04

2/10/D34

Flynn to Boykin, +27

5

SACKS AND INTERCEPTIONS

Q-Time	D/D/Yd	Play	Rushers
1-8:21	3/6/D33	Scandrick Sack	6
1-0:21	1/10/D49	Selvie Sack	4
2-4:50	1/20/O22	S. Moore Interception	3

PASSING CHART

Red (Incomplete), Black (Interception), Blue (Complete), and Yellow (Touchdown)

This spray chart for Matt Flynn reveals an old QB truth about dealing with 2-Deep and 1-Deep.  Versus 2 deep, look for opportunities behind the linebackers and in front of the safeties between the numbers.  But, against a single-high safety, the chances are outside the numbers.  And the Green Bay throw chart will reveal that the Cowboys played a lot of single high - not that Green Bay connected on many of those throws.

Pass Rushers Against Green Bay Packers - 41 pass rush/blitz situations:

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	2	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	10	2	1
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	1	0	0	0
Totals	1	12	2	1

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	4	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	3	2	1
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	1	3	0	0
Totals	1	10	2	1

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	1	2	0	1
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	2	2	1
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	1	1	0	0
Totals	2	5	2	2

And, here are the full season numbers to date:

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush	7 Rush
1st Down	10 - 3%	202 - 79%	33 - 12%	9 - 3%	0
2nd Down	7 - 3%	156 - 85%	17 - 9%	3 - 1%	0
3rd Down	9 - 5%	97 - 62%	25 - 16%	21 - 13%	2 - 1%
4th Down	1 - 9%	9 - 81%	1 - 9%	0	0
Totals	27 - 4%	464 - 77%	76 - 12%	33 - 5%	2 - 1%

The game by game pressure numbers sent by the Cowboys:

Wk 1 - NYG: 7/49 - 14%
Wk 2 - KC:   10/43 - 23%
Wk 3 - STL: 11/57 - 19%
Wk 4 - SD:  4/43 - 9%
Wk 5 - DEN: 6/42 - 14%
Wk 6 - WAS: 8/45 - 18%
Wk 7 - PHI:  10/51 - 19%
Wk 8 - DET: 8/49 - 16%
Wk 9 - MIN: 11/41 - 27%
Wk10- NO: 8/43 - 19%
Wk11 - NY: 6/33 - 18%
Wk12 - OAK: 11/29 - 38%
Wk13 - CHI 6/39 - 15%
Wk14 - GB 10/41 - 24%

2013 Totals:  116/605 - 19.1%
2012 Totals:  134/551 - 24.3%

SUMMARY:  There is no question that the defense has degenerated into an unmitigated disaster that continues to make us marvel with its inability to get a single stop in 3 of the last 4 halves of football.  They are a shell of themselves and even after a week of big talk and promises from DeMarcus Ware, he was handled well by a 4th round rookie left tackle named David Bahktiari.  That gives one pause for the unpleasant choice of either Ware being hurt much worse than we have believed or that perhaps he has seen his best days and now with a cap charge of around $17 million looming in 2014, the Cowboys are going to have yet another unpleasant choice in front of them.

The linebacker situation worsens when Ernie Sims and Justin Durant are lost during the game in which they are effecting to replace Bruce Carter and Sean Lee who are also lost to injury, leaving unheralded rookies DeVonte Holloman (6th round) and Cam Lawrence (undrafted) to try to plug the holes, but there is no place to hide them if you are blitzing to get stops.  Either they must trouble a pass rush (unlikely) or they must defend on an island (equally unlikely).  

The coaching has been a legitimate concern at times, but given the dire straits of every department of this defense, save cornerbacks, there seems to be no strategic ideas left in the playbook.  

Somehow, they need to narrow it down to trying to get 1 takeaway and 1 punt per half.  If they do that, they still have a chance to keep the damage down to a winnable margin if we assume the offense can keep its end of the bargain.  It is a feeble hope and ridiculous to see back-up QB after back-up QB prove to be too much to deal with, but it is where this thing is.

Like beating a dead horse, so is looking at the Cowboys defense week after week.  They need to spend plenty of time on this project in the offseason, but the resources are extremely limited moving forward.  

Kiffin Report - Week 14 - Chicago - Coach Jones Orders More Blitzes For Christmas!

In preparation to take on the Green Bay Packers - with or without Aaron Rodgers - the Cowboys have been playing a fun game of "discussing strategy in public", authored by the world's most famous (fantasy) football owner in the whole world, Jerry Jones.

“We just need to take more risks,” Jones said. “In a more conservative approach like Monday, the results are going to be the same, so we might as well try to somehow get more turnovers.”

And everyone agreed.  This defense has been horrible.  More turnovers would really, really help.  Nobody would debate that.  What they are doing isn't working.  Nobody would debate that.  Including Monte Kiffin: 

“We want to blitz, and we did blitz on third down.  Good golly, you’ve got to change it up. You’ve got to come after them. You can’t let that quarterback stand back there all day.”

Monte may not have had the numbers right in front of him, so allow me to help.  On Monday night, facing 10 3rd Downs, the Cowboys blitzed twice.  For the year, they blitz 18% of the time (down from 24% in 2012), with 16% of the time on 1st Down, 9% on 2nd, and 30% on 3rd Down all season long.

The Cowboys don't blitz much.  They don't blitz much for a number of reasons that make a fair amount of sense, starting with the idea that Monte Kiffin does not believe in the blitz.  He never has.  He has used it, but only as frosting, never as the cake.  Why?  Because he knows in this league that blitzing as a weapon can be dangerous, but as a necessity it can get you killed a whole lot faster.  He also doesn't seem to have ideal personnel for blitzing and ideal coverage to handle blitzing behind that.

But, you are surely saying as you read this, Bob, this might be the most horrific defense in league history.  Whatever they are doing isn't working.  Why would it hurt to try something different?

I can't argue.  What they are doing - although sound in reasoning - isn't working.  But, that doesn't mean that they aren't presently selecting their best option.

More blitzes, says Coach Jones.  He sits in his booth and sees too many zones that are getting barbecued as his 4 man rush doesn't accomplish anything.  But, my numbers show 4 sacks on 106 blitzes this season for 3.7% sack rate (the NFL average is 9% on blitzes). Non blitz: 23 sacks in 458 rushes: 5.0%.

Here is a list of all of their sacks this season:

Opp	D/D/Yd	Play	# of Rushers
NYG	2/G/2	Selvie Sack	4
NYG	1/10/O29	Carter Sack	6
NYG	3/10/O45	Hatcher sack	4
KC	3/4/D47	Hatcher Sack	4
KC	1/10/D48	Ware Sack	4
KC	3/13/D44	Ware Sack	6
KC	3/9/D34	Carter Sack	6
STL	3/8/D33	Scandrick Sack	5
STL	3/6/O24	Ware Sack	4
STL	3/6/O38	Selvie Sack	4
STL	2/1/O22	Hatcher Sack	4
STL	1/10/D35	Ware Sack	4
STL	2/10/O21	Wilber Sack	4
SD	1/10/O30	Selvie Sack	4
WAS	1/10/O46	Hatcher Sack	4
WAS	1/10/O30	Hatcher Sack	4
WAS	2/19/O11	Wilber Sack	4
PHI	1/10/O29	Selvie Sack	4
PHI	1/10/O38	Hatcher Sack	4
PHI	3/9/D9	Wynn/Selvie Sack	4
DET	1/10/O33	Hatcher Sack	4
MIN	1/10/O5	Selvie Sack	4
MIN	2/10/O42	Brown Sack	4
NO	2/3/D25	Ware Sack	4
NYG	3/11/O11	Hatcher Sack	4
NYG	2/7/O23	Hatcher Sack	4
CHI	1/10/D23	Ware Sack	4

As you can see, they haven't had a blitzing sack since Week 3.  In fact, of their 27 sacks, 23 of them were with just the front 4 (85%) and 4 were with 5 or 6 rushers (15%).   Even worse, just 9 of their sacks are on 3rd Down - where most teams get the majority of their sacks and get off the field to stop drives.  9 ranks 28th in the league on the money down.

So, is this because they aren't blitzing at all?  No.  They have tried 106 blitzes by my count this year (the NFL claims they have tried 107) and have 4 sacks to show for it.  But, Bob, there are other effects of blitzing: Hurried throws, hits, frantic incompletions, and other positives.  What are the results of those numbers?

Well, I am happy you asked.  NFL QBs are 67 of 101 for 952 yards and 5 TDs and just 1 INT against the Cowboys blitz this year for a stupendous QB rating of 109.1, which would rate them dead last in the NFL at 32nd in a 32 team league.

When they don't blitz, the Cowboys are still doing poorly.  But, the opposing QB rating is 91.8 instead of 109.1.  The numbers are still staggering: 272 of 420 for 3124 yards, 21 TDs, 12 INTs, but better when they are dropping into coverage.  91 isn't great (league average this year is 87), but 109 is last in the league.

But, Jerry thinks the blitz is the play, does he?

I realize the issue is the front 4 isn't getting there anymore.  They had 13 sacks in the first 3 weeks of the season, and just 14 sacks since.  They have more sacks than only 3 teams in the league and are not anywhere near the top half of the league.

This is why we asked about this back in Week 9 when writing about the defensive line:

The biggest question about this unit and the players they are getting huge contributions from is whether it is possibly sustainable.  Are these players candidates to still be making plays at this time in 2014 or 2015, or will the Cowboys need to spend 1st and 2nd round picks or mega-contracts to get permanent solutions at these spots?  Obviously, odds are that you don't find too much treasure in the NFL trash.  These are not undrafted free agents from college;  these are players who have been employed by 4 or 5 different organizations and have been declared washouts in the NFL.  Despite being 26, they are already in the "old bin" and most teams would rather take a shot on a 22 year old.

We have seen a major regression from George Selvie and Nick Hayden, with others just flat out disappearing from whence they came (Everette Brown).  The front 4 is now hoping DeMarcus Ware still can work his magic and Jason Hatcher can keep earning his money for next year.  But, talk about a rock and a hard place.  Do they blitz - something they are the 32nd best team in the NFL at doing - or do they keep getting rocked because they have no pass rush with 4?

Here are 2 less than memorable blitz moments from Monday:

1/10/D44 - 0:25 - 2Q - 6 Man Blitz

Blitzing seems like a good idea, but only if you can get home.  If you don't, you are outnumbered in the secondary and are counting on your guys to run man to man with talented receivers with almost no help.  Here is a good case of that as Brandon Marshall from the slot just runs a simple dig to lose Brandon Carr and gains an easy 19 yards against a blitz that didn't get home.  And why doesn't it get home?  Well, partly because the Bears keep more guys in to protect, and partly because your blitzes have to be good at blitzing.  Barry Church might be the best blitzer on the roster, but I am not sure he is great at blitzing.  Regardless, Josh McCown has time and space and delivers a throw that shows that even on 1st Down, your blitz doesn't trouble them.


1/10/D17 - 14:31 - 4Q - 6 Man Blitz

Here is a 6-man blitz that is burned brilliantly.  The Cowboys are bringing the safety and the linebacker to Bush's side and assuming he is staying in to protect - but if he doesn't, George Selvie must hit the brakes and peel off to "cover him".  Church has a free run at the QB, but he is so prepared that he puts this throw in a perfect spot to kill the blitz and it is a easy stroll to the end zone.  Wow.  Talk about getting your mitts burned.

And despite seeing that play, Jerry wants more!


WEEK 14 Versus Chicago

First, a reminder of what a splash play is: 

What is a splash play? Well, for purposes of this blog I believe a splash play will include the following: A sack, a pressure that forces a bad throw, and big hit on the QB, and a batted ball that may lead to an interception opportunity. Again, you can see how this leads to subjectivity, but a subjective breakdown is better than no breakdown at all, I have decided. In addition, a splash play will include tackles for loss, a big hit for a short gain, or a stop which is an open field tackle where a player is pulled down on 3rd down short of the marker because of an exceptional effort from a defender. An interception is clearly a splash play, but so is a defended pass that required a great effort. A major hit in the secondary could be a splash play, but I believe that the outcome of the play will determine that. Sorry, defensive backs, but standing over a guy who just caught a 15 yard pass because you think you hit him hard will not generally pass the test on this blog. So, stop doing it. 

I am trying to be careful about handing out too many splash plays per game. I am trying to be picky, but too extreme in either direction. When I log a splash play, I will put time of the game on the chart so that if you want to review the same game and challenge my ruling, you are welcome to do so. Also, if multiple players deserve recognition on a single play, we will try to see that as well. 

Basically, we are trying to assign a value to making plays on the defense. We don't want to just see sacks and interceptions. We want to see broader definitions of splash plays to assign credit to those who help the Cowboys get off the field in important situations. These rankings will not deduct for negative plays at this point. There are simply too many occasions where we are guessing, and for now, I want to avoid that for this particular idea.  

A splash play is a play that makes a major difference in the game. And by keeping it all season long, we will see which defenders are play makers and which are simply warm bodies. We already have our thoughts on both categories, but let's see if we can dig a bit deeper and actually have numbers to back up our claims.

SPLASHES VS Chicago

Q-Time	D/D/Yd	Player	Play
1-8:12	2/10/O33	Ware	Run Stuff
1-3:00	1/G/D4	Hayden	Tackle For Loss
2-13:12	1/10/D34	Carter	Tackle For Loss
2-1:50	1/G/D15	Nevis	Big QB Pressure
3-12:54	1/10/D18	Scandrick	Pass Defended
3-9:52	1/10/O25	Carter	Pass Defended
3-9:48	2/10/O25	Wynn/Wilber	Run Stuff
3-8:52	1/10/O30	Carr	Pass Defended

2013 SEASON TOTALS

Here are the final results for 2011 and here are the final results for 2012.

Player	Splashes
LB Sean Lee	22.5
DT Jason Hatcher	20.5
DE George Selvie	20
CB Brandon Carr	18.5
S Barry Church	17
DE DeMarcus Ware	15
LB Bruce Carter	14
CB Orlando Scandrick	13
DE Kyle Wilber	10
DT Nick Hayden	7.5
DT Drake Nevis	7.5
CB Morris Claiborne	7
S Jeff Heath	6
LB Justin Durant	4.5
DE Jarius Wynn	4
S Will Allen	3.5
DE Edgar Jones	3
S JJ Wilcox	2
DE Everette Brown	2
CB BW Webb	1.5
LB Ernie Sims	1.5
DT Ceasar Rayford	1
DT Marvin Austin	1
Team Totals	202.5

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Pass Rush/Blitzing REPORT

This segment of the defensive study is simply to find out how well the Cowboys are doing at getting pressure on the opposing QB.  We have spent a good part of the offseason talking about Monte Kiffin's philosophy that, like so many of the great 4-3 schemes, is based on using blitz as a weapon, not a necessity.  If you use the blitz as an ambush weapon that is always threatened but only used at the perfect times, you can often get free runs at the QB.  If, on the other hand, you must use the blitz because your normal pressure is not getting it done, then the offense usually is waiting for you and prepared - so even 6 rushers don't accomplish much.

Against the Bears, the team clearly feared Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall more than they wished to blitz and therefore attempted to play coverage most of the time.  The Dallas blitz rate in this game was the lowest since the San Diego game.  They built a game plan around NOT blitzing and it didn't work.  So, if one extreme doesn't work, one rich man thinks the opposite approach might work.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS ALLOWED

Q-Time	D/D/Yd	Play	Rushers
2-13:48	1/10/O46	McCown to Marshall, +20	4
2-3:10	1/10/O41	McCown to Jeffery, +26	4
2-0:17	1/10/D25	McCown to Jeffery, +25	4
3-13:47	2/6/O48	McCown to Forte, +34	4
4-15:00	2/6/O46	McCown to Marshall, +22	3

SACKS AND INTERCEPTIONS

Q-Time	D/D/Yd	Play	Rushers
4-7:49	1/10/D23	Ware Sack	4

PASSING CHART

Red (Incomplete), Black (Interception), Blue (Complete), and Yellow (Touchdown)

Careful what you wish for.  Josh McCown certainly did not conduct himself like you would believe a backup QB would do.  McCown was really fantastic and among the best QB performances Dallas has seen all year.

Pass Rushers Against Chicago Bears - 39 pass rush/blitz situations:

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	0	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	16	1	2
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	1	1	0
Totals	0	17	2	2

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	1	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	2	3	0	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	1	1	0	0
Totals	3	5	0	0

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	1	2	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	1	1	0	2
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	3	0	0
Totals	2	6	0	2

And, here are the full season numbers to date:

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush	7 Rush
1st Down	9 - 3%	190 - 79%	31 - 13%	8 - 3%	0
2nd Down	6 - 3%	146 - 86%	15 - 8%	2 - 1%	0
3rd Down	7 - 4%	92 - 64%	23 - 16%	19 - 13%	2 - 1%
4th Down	1 - 9%	9 - 81%	1 - 9%	0	0
Totals	23 - 4%	437 - 77%	70 - 12%	29 - 5%	2 - 1%

The game by game pressure numbers sent by the Cowboys:

Wk 1 - NYG: 7/49 - 14%
Wk 2 - KC:   10/43 - 23%
Wk 3 - STL: 11/57 - 19%
Wk 4 - SD:  4/43 - 9%
Wk 5 - DEN: 6/42 - 14%
Wk 6 - WAS: 8/45 - 18%
Wk 7 - PHI:  10/51 - 19%
Wk 8 - DET: 8/49 - 16%
Wk 9 - MIN: 11/41 - 27%
Wk10- NO: 8/43 - 19%
Wk11 - NY: 6/33 - 18%
Wk12 - OAK: 11/29 - 38%
Wk13 - CHI 6/39 - 15%

2013 Totals:  106/564 - 18.7%

2012 Totals:  134/551 - 24.3%

SUMMARY: I expect the Cowboys will blitz more than they have all season on Sunday against a team that has one win in their last 6 games.  It might work, because Green Bay has very little self confidence and you could certainly argue they are ripe for the picking - especially if #12 isn't under center for them.  

But, the larger issue here is that they are about to do something that A) they are very poor at (as mentioned above, they are the single worst blitzing team in the entire sport, B) they just fired a guy who is great at blitzing, and C) they just hired a guy who has never believed much in blitzing at the expense of weakening his coverage options.  

So, they will do it and it might even work reasonably well in the small samples, but there has never really been anything that seems more predictably awful for this team to try than to play a "we just need to take more risks" defense.  

It might fall under the "its so crazy it just might work" heading, but there is no sustainability here and certainly no magic page in the playbook that you turn to when you just want more turnovers.  If that page existed, it would be used every week.  

The bottom line is that defensively they ran into a few buzz-saws that presented matchup issues for the Dallas personnel.  Hopefully, by now you know my view on how poor a job the GM and his staff did on assisting the defense by getting them quality personnel to fortify this unit.  If not, the archives are full of them, including the piece from 2 days ago.  

My position is that they are playing a depleted Green Bay team at home and then a horrid Washington team and I believe I would place both of those teams in the Giants and Raiders category, where you can still play poor defense and overcome it with a strong team game, rather than the Saints and Bears where you need to start gambling without hesitation.  Wait to gamble until Week 17 if you must, when you play an equally aggressive Eagles team that might have you in binds with their personnel and Xs and Os.

But, Jerry has never come to me for advice, and since he is the only one who matters in this discussion, I believe we should expect a season-high blitzes and hope for the best.  

He is a wildcatter by trade.  And that leopard is not going to be changing his spots in 2013.