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Daily Commentary on the Dallas Sports Scene - By Bob Sturm - Sportsradio 1310, The Ticket - The Athletic Dallas - The Athletic - Bob Sturm
TheCowboysdefense is currently in uncharted waters. We don’t know how to process this.
As we head into Week 17 with a mighty challenge lurking — and obviously many bigger ones on the horizon — Dallas welcomes the new year with the unthinkable No. 1 ranking in the NFL in takeaways.
There is no question that theDallas Cowboysand their many machinations of defense over the last decade-plus have had a takeaway problem. Every coach has told us that in order to understand the secrets of football, we must simply understand the importance of winning the turnover battle. Then, for years and years, we have seen the Cowboys almost never end up too strong in that department, mostly because the defense cannot make a single play.
Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli communicates to his players during the second half of play at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on Sunday, October 8, 2017. Green Bay Packers defeated the Dallas Cowboys 35-31. (Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News)
Sturm's observations
During the bye week, I wanted to offer some observations to prepare us for the stretch run with 11 games to go. Sitting at 2-3 is not a great place to be, and the schedule ahead looks a little daunting. On the other hand, there is nothing in this sport like an off weekend to look around and see you aren't the only franchise dealing with issues and challenges that were unforeseen in the offseason. Everyone has a plan until you get punched in the mouth, right? Well, the NFL season is all about taking those punches and charging forward to strike back.
The Cowboys remain in a fine position to strike back. Not because of their win total or their great accomplishments this year. Not at all. But again -- just like in 2016 -- it seems like they're just about the healthiest team in the sport. On offense, they have had perfect attendance across the board from pretty much every single member. That is not common right now in this league. Everyone is dealing with injuries and nearly everyone has lost someone for a few months or the year. Not the Cowboys. Look at that offensive roster -- where they have planted their resources and salary cap -- and you will see that they just keep marching on with the exact lineup that appeared on paper when the season began. That can change on any hit that occurs, but for now, you have a healthy team and that puts you in as good a spot as pretty much anyone in the conference.
The defense has not been as fortunate, but the few injuries that have occurred have been of the "weeks" variety rather than "months." Yes, Sean Lee being out could have likely made the difference between beating the Rams and Packers and not, but he is back. Anthony Hitchens is back. David Irving is back. Damontre Moore is back. The only injuries that have really been issues are Charles Tapper (broken bone in his right foot) and Stephen Paea's, who just up and retired because of his knee.
As you look at the calendar and see that we are approaching the end of October, we know two things: 1) There is a long way to go and the injury fortune could turn on a dime as early as Sunday, and 2) if a team can navigate to the postseason relatively healthy, they have a substantial advantage against the ragtag bunches that they will compete against, where most teams have 3-5 pieces (sometimes more) that have been lost for the rest of the season by then. Aaron Rodgers getting hurt (broken collarbone) means Green Bay is just another potential foe that the Cowboys made up massive amounts of ground on from their couches this past weekend.
Health appears to be a bit of a gift from the football gods some years, but I believe it is also a function of having a young team, and the Cowboys certainly have young players all over the field these days with almost nobody over 30 besides Jason Witten and Lee.
There are some other things to talk about, though, that are more than just hoping against injuries in the most violent sport we could possibly imagine. That is why a lot of what I am thinking about during this off time in the schedule is how much pressure Rod Marinelli is up against if this team doesn't pick up the pace defensively.
The Cowboys play a conservative brand of defense. Last year, it worked out pretty well until they got into a game in the playoffs and didn't have the ability to stop an offense that was as good as Dallas could throw out there.
This year, though, the defense has some very interesting characteristics that are not quite what we feared in the offseason. Let's look at some of them from my friends at NFL Remarkable at Inside Edge:
The Cowboys defense has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 1 of 183 attempts (0.5%) this season (2nd best in NFL; League Avg: 1.6%)
Offenses facing the Cowboys defense have thrown deep balls on just 8.2% of pass attempts (15/183) this season (5th lowest in NFL; League Avg: 11.5%)
These two numbers above tell us what we know about how the Cowboys have defended. There is really no sign of teams trying to beat the Cowboys "up top." The Cowboys have put their two safeties deep and played conservative coverages to keep everything in front of them. Wide receivers have not had big days against the Cowboys partly because the Cowboys have taken that away. Now, unfortunately, when you take something away you give up something else, but aside from Carson Palmer to Larry Fitzgerald, the Cowboys have not allowed a 300-yard passer or a 100-yard receiver this season. They have taken away the quick death.
But they also haven't been able to stop C.J. Anderson, Todd Gurley and Aaron Jones from running all over them in the losses. And they also have all caught important passes to make it even worse.
Now, the sack totals are interesting and encouraging to say the least. Look at the seven-year trend as we compare the Cowboys (blue) to the NFL leaders (green) and NFL average (red) team totals:
As you can clearly see above, the Cowboys' pass rush is as productive as anything we have seen in this era post-Wade Phillips and DeMarcus Ware. They led the NFL in sacks in 2008 and were a great pass rush for almost all of Wade's tenure, but since then, they have dropped below the league average for almost all of Rob Ryan, Monte Kiffin and part of Rod Marinelli's stay. Now, they may have assembled a group that can get home and currently sits in the top 10 in sack rate. That is most encouraging. But, back to the folks at Remarkable -- what about this? The Cowboys defense has not hurried opposing QBs on any of 59 dropbacks in close and late situations this season (worst in NFL; League Avg: 8.5%) This is subjective, and it sure looked like Rodgers was under duress on that final drive a time or two, but if it is anywhere close to accurate that they have no hurries on 59 dropbacks in "close and late," that tells us that while they have the pass rush, perhaps they don't have enough of one to get home late in games due to fatigue? Or, it tells us that the defensive play-calling gets way more conservative in these spots and the Cowboys' rush is not as determined to get home. Either way, this is a trend worth investigating.
But, the biggest issue I have remains with what every defensive coordinator is mandated to do: stop threats and create takeaways.
Look at these numbers -- none of them are terribly positive:
The Cowboys defense has allowed 5.5 touchdowns per interception (11 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season (6th worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.9)
The Cowboys have intercepted 2 of 183 attempts (91.5 pass attempts per int.) this season (7th worst in NFL; League Avg: 42.9)
The Cowboys defense has forced 4 fumbles this season (tied for 3rd fewest in NFL)
So, no interceptions and no fumbles forced -- not a great combination.
It is worth noting that it seems quite obvious this league is committing fewer and fewer turnovers every year. We are trying to completely eliminate risk in our offenses and in our quarterback decision-making over the years.
Last year, there were 700 turnovers in the sport. Ten years ago: 918! That is a remarkable drop-off in that span of time. The NFL average used to be around 28-30 for each team per year, and now it has dropped to 21-22 league-wide.
So, it is tougher to get takeaways, sure. But, Marinelli and his crew have just 35 in the past 37 regular-season games going back to the start of 2015. This trend is almost too big to be a trend as much as it is simply who they are. They are trying to alter that, but the first five games of 2017 have been more of the same. Deep, deep safeties, careful corners, three-man pass rushes and hope something that good happens.
In doing this, opponents aren't even looking deep, they are just taking the easy stuff underneath that moves the chains and hardly don't risk any turnovers. I would love to know if any defensive coordinator in the history of the league has ever produced takeaways at such a low rate for three seasons and not been under threat of job security, or at least some public heat. I generally hear nothing but plaudits for Marinelli and I really admire his personality and his defensive approach in general, but to oversee three years in a row that have yielded an average of 15 takeaways, in a league where the average team is able to get about 22 (46 percent more), is a problem that is going to be difficult to overcome.
Starting Sunday, the Cowboys have to reverse this trend quickly.
I must admit, the more we wish to be able to predict the future -- despite having more information at our fingertips than ever before -- we still have a very difficult time getting ahead of the news. The fact of the matter is: We still don't know what is going to happen until it happens.
And that's just politics.
Now, on to football. The Cowboys' defense was under the microscope all offseason. It was hard to look at last year's defense and see optimism for 2016 success. Then, they added very little -- in fact, the return of Orlando Scandrick seemed cancelled out by the losses of Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain. So far, the Cowboys' defense has faced 501 snaps. Seven different defenders have played at least 300 of those (60 percent) and all seven were part of last year's defense that got no sacks and no takeaways. Well below average on both.
So, yes, they have new guys contributing -- Maliek Collins, Terrell McClain, Anthony Brown, Benson Mayowa and Cedric Thornton have all played plenty, but just not over that 300-snap barrier. They are helping, but not doing all of the heavy lifting. But, of course, one sign of a very effective defensive front is the ability to show depth and come at an offense in waves. Fewer snaps may mean a higher motor when you play, which is reflected in the eyeball test.
Now, after a day in Cleveland when the defense shut down the Browns at every turn, let's take a look at some of the very interesting results at the halfway point of the season. We are exactly 50 percent of the way through the regular season, and the sinking feeling that the defense would be exposed has gone the way of many other predictions recently. The defense has been quite solid.
SACKS
Sacks were something the defense had not been able to get in years. Basically, since DeMarcus Ware had his last great season in 2011 with 19.5 sacks at the age of 29, the Cowboys have been well below the league-average line. We have certainly found in many cases that if one side of the ball is elite (as the offense appears to be), then the objective for success is largely based around whether the other side can just get to "league average." Trying to get both the offense and defense to No. 1 is unreasonable in a league like this, but if one can be at the top and the other in the middle, you can be a real contender.
So, sack totals are in blue and league average is in red:
Here, in 2016 they are on pace to get to 36 sacks, where the league average has been at recently. It seems pretty interesting that they have shown an uptick in sacks in the past month. Through the first four games of the season, they had six sacks (a pace of 24). Then, in the next four games, they had 12 sacks.
Surely, the return of DeMarcus Lawrence should not be overlooked. I have been rather underwhelmed by his first four game -- and his sack total still is the same as Dan Bailey's -- but given how this defense works in concert with stunts, games and rushes that require several players working together, it would be wrong to assume he has not had any impact.
Regardless, the team has 18 sacks, which is impressive and puts them right at league average. And, no player has more than the 3.5 of Tyrone Crawford, so you could argue that they have no elite pass rusher, or you could argue that they are well balanced with what you would hope -- 11 different players who have been in on a sack.
TAKEAWAYS
Now, on to takeaways -- where, as a reminder, no team in NFL history had fewer takeaways than the Cowboys did last season. They had 11, and the league average was 23.3. This year, through eight games, they sit at 10 for a pace of 20. This is hardly great and it still doesn't get them to league average, but the blue line is much closer to the red line:
Now, again, I think it is important to remember "game effects" when comparing 2014-2016. The more you play with the lead, the more an opponent is passing and the more that allows for sacks and interceptions. In 2014 and 2016, the defense almost always has played with a lead and in 2015 it did not at all.
So, it will be interesting to see if this holds up, but the 2016 upticks in both categories is very encouraging and somewhat predictable with the situations they have been put in.
Here are the numbers from Cleveland -- and they are pretty incredible:
DATA BOX
So, where should we start? Ten points! ... 222 yards??? This is the lowest of the season and the lowest since that ridiculous game in Miami last year.
Then, add only one explosive play allowed (that trick formation on the second play of the game) and 4 sacks? Then, chase it home with just 1 third down conversion.
Can they play the Browns every week? Sadly, no. It will get tougher this week in Pittsburgh.
CODY KESSLER THROW CHART
Young, right-handed quarterbacks don't always throw well to their blind side, do they?
He also was sacked four times -- let's take a look:
First one -- five-man pressure, where two linebackers blitz and a defensive end, Mayowa (No. 93) drops into coverage. You can see the objective is simple. The defensive end on the right of your screen is trying to take the right tackle wide. The defensive tackle wants to occupy the left guard and tackle. That leaves the Browns' center and right guard to deal with three Cowboys. This should leave a free blitzer and that is exactly what happens -- the running back tries to clean up No. 57, Damien Wilson. Wilson shows great athleticism by bouncing back up and getting to the quarterback at the same time as No. 59, Anthony Hitchens, on the inside. Score one for the scheme and those young, fast linebackers showing some splash.
This is just great from No. 96, Maliek Collins. He is a really nice player and we knew that when they drafted him in the third round. He is a 3-technique who has a fine combination of strength and quickness, making it very difficult to stay in front of him for too long. If you want to enjoy more from the 2016 draft, just focus on this guy and what he brings to the table. Simply the best draft in forever. Just a dominant display.
Here is a coverage sack. Kessler is looking, looking and finally tries to leave the pocket. Justin Durant is waiting for him to try to get out and meets him for a sack, but this is about a quarterback not seeing anything downfield. Again, there is plenty of deception on which players the Cowboys are rushing, leaving players not blocking anyone, and again, we credit the scheme work by Marinelli and his crew. Also, very active movement from the pass rushers.
And here is the fourth and final sack. Five-man protection against a five-man pass rush. You can see the Cowboys are starting to bring pressure a bit more often and this time, he has Scandrick off the right side and a pirate stunt underneath, with Collins coming around his other defensive tackle and end to lose his man for a free run at the quarterback. Again, look how well Collins runs. They have really hit on something great there.
SPLASH PLAYS - WEEK 8
And here are the standings for total splash plays:
SEASON SPLASHES
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
The beat goes on. This from the Cowboys' post-game notes:
For the eighth straight game, the Dallas defense did not allow a 100-yard rusher or a 100-yard receiver against the opposing offense. It is the only team in the NFL to not allow a 100-yard rusher or 100-yard receiver in a single game. It is also the longest such streak since the team had nine-straight games in the 2009 season (9/28/09-11/26/09).
So, no 100-yard rusher and no 100-yard receiver. And no opponent has reached 24 points.
And you thought this defense was going to stink this year, right? We all sort of did.
Our defensive look at the New York Giants game is an interesting one to say the least. In many respects, the defense played one of their very best games of the year surrendering just 289 yards and seems to spend much more time around the QB and getting off the field.
At most, the defense was responsible for conceding just 13 points and you could understand some level of short tempers when the offense and special teams were giving up points - a sure recipe for disaster. The defense played hard and in many respects deserved a better fate than they received on Sunday - but that is football. It is a team game and you win and lose because of your cumulative level of quality.
There are things going better on this defense since the arrivals of Rolando McClain, Greg Hardy, and Randy Gregory (although Gregory was hardly seen on Sunday), and the reasons for optimism should be present. However, as it pertains to Sunday, there were some disconcerting elements of the game that we should consider.
For instance, of the six biggest plays the defense has conceded in 2015, three of them were on Sunday. So, yes, they didn't give up many yards in total, but they did give up 3 plays on Sunday that would be considered major explosives. A 44-yard pass to Rueben Randle on a 3rd and 5 from deep inside Giants territory - something that surely would have resulted in Cowboys points if they can force that punt; a 39 yard run to Shane Vereen later in that same drive, and a 38 yard pass to Dwayne Harris across the middle in the 2nd Quarter against a blitz. And there surely would have been a 4th in the final Quarter had Rueben Randle not bobbled a beautiful pass and allowed Byron Jones a chance to break it up.
So, while the defense played pretty well and gave up fewer than 300 yards on Sunday, we certainly cannot throw roses at their feet if they are allowing several big plays and of course, not generating enough game-changers of their own.
Certainly, two different 3rd down sacks were wonderful, but to go yet another game without a takeaway is starting to become absurd. Here is the latest demonstration of how serious things are starting to become:
In the last decade, every year has a different story. But, this year, the story that isn't being talked about enough because of the QB situation, Dez Bryant's injury, and the week to week Greg Hardy drama is a very simple football story. The Cowboys have now tied their worst takeaway performance over the course of a year in just six games. With 10 games to play, the idea that the Cowboys might set a franchise low for weeks without a single takeaway seem well within reach. 3 times in the history of the Dallas Cowboys have they had 6 games in a single season without a takeaway: 1989, 1994, and 2004. With 5 already in the bag, they seem assured of a rather dubious low in 2015 - a year where they absolutely could not afford for this to happen. With Tony Romo and Dez Bryant unavailable, this was to be the year that the defense carried the mail.
And on this most vital of fronts - the statistic that most correlates to winning of any single number in football - the Cowboys are coming up empty. By the way, of the 53 games since 2000 that the Cowboys have 0 takeaways, they are 10-43. Since 2010 - the first year of Jason Garrett, they are 1-20. It is a rough stat to overcome.
Here is this week's version of "The Cowboys Almost got a Takeaway", which will be the 10th such occasion in these 6 games (according to my unofficial count). It is Byron Jones just about kicking himself an interception.
It seemed convincing enough at real speed, but after further review, they ruled the ball touched the ground in the process. But, despite the close call, it feels like now is a great time to discuss Byron Jones.
Above, I mentioned a moment in the game where the Cowboys needed a play from a safety. Enter the rookie from UConn. If Randle catches this clean, Jones is not going to be able to save the day, but his arm on the ball certainly arrived to make sure Randle doesn't double-catch this one:
It was just last week that I received another bunch of emails and comments from Cowboys fans who were waiting to see the 1st round pick begin to pay dividends. And he delivered with a game where he made several big plays and came very close a few other times.
Jones is part of a group of youngsters who we have all labeled as potential "Blue-Chip" players. Byron Jones, Randy Gregory, and DeMarcus Lawrence are all heavy Cowboys investments who were to help insert top-level talents into a defense that has been mostly retreads and try-hard guys who filled out the lineup in much of 2013 and 2014. Surely, if you can add these players around a healthy Sean Lee and Greg Hardy, the sky will be the limit in 2015.
Well, with Gregory - like Lawrence last year, health has not cooperated. But, hypothetically, each week he will get better. Lawrence has flashed nearly every week, but just isn't getting home. I think DeMarcus can be a very good edge rusher, but he has to get to the QB more often. 1 in 6 weeks is not what they were hoping for - they likely thought he would be a cinch for 8 sacks this season. I know I thought that would be possible.
But, now Jones arrives and gets better each week. I still don't know whether he is a corner or a safety in 2016 and beyond. But, for now, it appears that he might just be a great football player that has the talent to do whatever you need. He could be your best corner or he could be your best safety. He is around the ball a lot (is that because opponents are challenging him?) and seems close to turning a game with a big play. He also looks likely to block a kick before too long.
In other words, I think Byron Jones is on his way to a heck of a career.
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SPLASH PLAYS - WEEK 6
As mentioned above, Byron Jones made a majority of the big plays on Sunday for the defense as he checked in with 3 splash plays - all 3 where he knocked down passes from Eli Manning. Manning is looking to get the ball out quick, so he is going after the coverage he thinks he can take advantage of, and Byron was more than able to fight back in his homecoming game.
Overall, it is a low number of splashes, but that likely has more to do with the game flow where the defense played only 9 minutes in the 2nd half as the Cowboys offense was on the field the entire half.
SEASON TOTALS - SPLASH PLAYS
GAME SUMMARY - WEEK 6
As you can see here, the numbers indicate many good things about the defensive performance against the Giants. The defense was able to get off the field on 3rd Down (3-11, 27%) and was able to minimize damage in the red zone drives. They were also able to keep the yards per play to a minimum.
But, in the end, the 0 takeaways tell the story.
It really stinks to lose a game when you can't really name a player on the opposing offense that you thought had a really great game. But, again, it is a team game and the way the Cowboys lost this one will sting for a bit.
ELI MANNING PASSING CHART
The Giants offense consists of making short passes to allow for yards after catch and occasionally take a shot down the field. The Cowboys were decent on this for the most part, but were burned on a couple big ones that could have made the margin even worse.
COWBOYS RUSHERS VS GIANTS
As many know who read this, the Cowboys do not believe in blitzing much and certainly not as a necessity. With each week, they are rushing 5 or more less and less. They tried it 3 times in this game and actually were burned twice. So, what little they blitz, expect even less.
BLITZES BY WEEK
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS ALLOWED
A team that doesn't like to blitz tries 3 of them and then gives up explosives twice on those three plays? Well....
Here is another handy pie chart to demonstrate how often the Cowboys bring how-many rushers:
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION:
Well, this is simple. The defense is showing strides and talent. They are not showing results in the takeaway department so we will continue to ask more of them. I am not one of those people who say "you can't blame the defense" in a week where so many other things happened.
Each unit is judged on their own merit. You can play well in a loss and horribly in a win. It is a team sport.
On this occasion, the defense has been really solid and looking the part. But, when you are 1-20 when your defense does not create a single takeaway, well, we know what we are looking for each week.
Get the ball. Must get the ball. And until they do, anything else may not matter soon. They have tied their worst seasons in 0 takeaway games in the last decade by October 25th. That simply must change and to do so, players might have to add another level to the intensity.
I may sound like a broken record. But, that seems fitting since they are about to break a record.
