Showing posts with label 2013 NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2013 NFL. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 04, 2014

NFL Franchise Rankings, Version 13.0

The 13th annual Sturm NFL Franchise Rankings are now finalized and prepared to turn over to you the eager public (right?).  All results are now final through Super Bowl 48, where the Seattle Seahawks have vaulted up the rankings with their first victorious Super Bowl effort.  Now, with the new results turned in, you can resume arguing with those around you about the relative merits of franchise A as it compares to franchise B.

It is fun for killing time at work, at dinner, or in the dorm rooms.

Who exactly can claim to be the best franchise in the modern era?  Is it the Cowboys?  The Steelers?  Or the 49ers?  And who is really better if a Bengals fan and Falcons fan square off?  How about a Jets fan and a Browns fan?  And who should be more outraged at their franchises incompetence over the last 48 years, the Cardinals or the Lions?

How did this project ever begin?

To recap, now thirteen years ago, a good listener of the radio show asked me to rank the franchises from #32 to #1 based on their accomplishments during the Super Bowl era.

So I did. I wanted it to be objective at all costs, not subjective. I wanted it to be a formula and you would just enter the numbers and it would spit out the rankings with no favoritism or prejudice. So, I have been doing this since every year since 2001, on the Tuesday of the week following the Super Bowl. Since then, it has been imitated a time or two , but I don’t mind. It is pretty obvious idea for any sports nerd with time on hand to come up with.

Here is how it works. Each Franchise gets 1 point for each season it makes the playoffs. Then, if it reaches the Conference Championship Game it gets a total of 3 points. If it makes the Super Bowl it gets 5, and if it wins the Super Bowl it wins the maximum total of points in a given year of 11. It used to be 10 for the Super Bowl, but I have adjusted it because I didn’t like the idea that 2 Super Bowl losses equaled a Super Bowl win. So, Now 11 points for a win and 5 for a loss in the Super Bowl.

I have been asked why no points are given for wins in the Wildcard round, but I decided that would not make sense with the idea that the playoffs have expanded over the years and there is no way to equalize a smaller field to a larger one. Also, a Wildcard win is not that big a deal anymore with 6 teams in the playoffs, so unless you reach the Conference Title game, no additional points beyond the 1 for making the post-season.

I also have been asked how come I don’t rank by average points per season (since many teams have joined the league since Super Bowl 1. My answer is simple: I don’t want to penalize teams who have been in the league all of the years. If you go by average points per year rather than total points, it is possible that the Baltimore Ravens would be #1 soon if they win another Super Bowl next year. And it is fair to note how great Baltimore has done compared to teams around them in the rankings. No chance I would believe that premise, given that they didn’t exist prior to 1996. But, if a team has been established since the season of Super Bowl 1 (1966), it is notated.

Just add up the points for all the years, and that is the entire formula. (By the way, if you disagree with the point totals for each accomplishment, you will find that just about any reasonable formula spits out about the same results.  Try me, pick your own point values.)

Otherwise, I break ties based on the team with more Super Bowl wins, then Super Bowl losses, then Championship Game wins, then playoff berths, and finally average points per year.

There are no ties. I will settle it somehow.

We have added "average pts per year" in the last 3 versions - so that we may determine results based on years in the league. 24 of the 32 teams have been here the entire span of the 47 years of Super Bowl football, but this metric will help put the other 8 teams: Saints '67, Bengals '68, Seahawks '76, Buccaneers '76, Jaguars '95, Panthers '95, Ravens '96, and Texans '02. Also, the Browns missed 96-98, so they only have 45 seasons to work with.

Here are the Final Rankings through Super Bowl 48:


Teams #1-#10
=========================================

#1 - Pittsburgh Steelers (Last year, #1) - 108 pts

In 2011, it finally happened. When Super Bowl 30 was completed, the Cowboys were at 101 and the Steelers were at 68 points. Well, since then, the Steelers have been the model of excellence for anyone not in New England, and the Cowboys have been, well, the Cowboys. Therefore, based on the tie breaking system, the Steelers took over as the current heavyweight leader in the Super Bowl era. The first time in years that the Cowboys have not held this post.  Nothing has changed since, because  both teams missed the playoffs in 2012 and 2013.  So, 108 continues to be the high water mark to date.

Total Points: 108
Total Playoff Years: 72C, 73, 74S, 75S, 76C, 77, 78S, 79S, 82, 83, 84C, 89, 92, 93, 94C, 95SL, 96, 97C, 01C, 02, 04C, 05S, 07, 08S, 10SL, 11

P: 26
4: 7
2: 2
1: 6

Average: 2.25 points per season

Pittsburgh holds the tiebreaker over Dallas because of Lombardi Trophies, 6-5.

#2 - Dallas Cowboys (Last Year, #2) - 108 pts

Dallas has the most playoff appearances, the most Final 4s, and are tied with Pittsburgh for the most Super Bowl appearances. However, since 1996, they have a performance level that actually trails the Jacksonville Jaguars and is certainly a team that is getting by on reputation and history. They are far removed from where they once stood, and yet, they still can claim to have as many or more points than any other franchise. They were a dominant, dominant franchise for 30 years.  So much so, that according to these numbers, the Cowboys had 101 points through the first 30 Super Bowls and just 7 points in the last 18.  That equates to 3.3 points per season for the first 30 years and 0.38 per year in the 18 years since.  Yikes.  These are indeed disappointing times round here.

Total Points: 108
Total Playoff Years: 66C, 67C, 68, 69, 70SL, 71S, 72C, 73C, 75SL, 76, 77S, 78SL, 79, 80C, 81C, 82C, 83, 85, 91, 92S, 93S, 94C, 95S, 96, 98, 99, 03, 06, 07, 09

P: 30
4: 8
2: 3
1: 5

Average: 2.25 points per season


#3 - San Francisco 49ers (#3) - 95 pts

The 49ers are back in form as a power in the NFL and have now run off 3 consecutive championship games and a Super Bowl loss since Jim Harbaugh took over.  They lost to Seattle this year and Baltimore last year who both won the Lombardi Trophy, so you can see how San Fran is a heavyweight yet again.  They still have not closed the deal on a Super Bowl with this group, and even if they did it would not have caught Dallas and Pittsburgh for the top pairing, but it would have put them a season away.  Nevertheless, they certainly solidify their spot further in the top 3 and look prepared to continue to do more winning moving forward.

Total Points: 95
Total Playoff Years: 70C, 71C, 72, 81S, 83C, 84S, 85, 86, 87, 88S, 89S, 90C, 92C, 93C, 94S, 95, 96, 97C, 98, 01, 02, 11C, 12SL, 13C

P: 23
4: 9
2: 1
1: 5

Average: 1.98 points per season


#4 - Oakland Raiders (#4) - 77 pts

Perhaps doubling as the long lost AFC brother of the Cowboys, they now, have missed the playoffs every season since their last Super Bowl in SB 37, 12 long years ago.  They still reside easily in the Top 5, but have been a dormant franchise themselves for a while now.  However, to be fair, looking at the rest of their history, they remain one of the strongest franchises of the Super Bowl era.

Total Points: 77
Total Playoff Years: 67SL, 68C, 69C, 70C, 72, 73C, 74C, 75C, 76S, 77C, 80S, 82, 83S, 84, 85, 90C, 91, 93, 00C, 01, 02SL

P: 21
4: 9
2: 2
1: 3

Average: 1.60 points per season

#5 - New England Patriots (#5) - 72 pts

The gold standard of this millennium, the Patriots show what a dominant decade can do to the overall view of your franchise.  Think about what an after thought this team was in the first year of this exercise with a measly 17 points.  Well, now they are secured in the Top 5 franchises of the Super Bowl era thanks to the fine work of turning out results on a regular basis in the Brady/Belichick era.  The Super Bowl victories have dried up since 2004, but not the deep January runs.

Total Points: 72
Total Playoff Years: 76, 78, 82, 85SL, 86, 94, 96SL, 97, 98, 01S, 03S, 04S, 05, 06C, 07SL, 09, 10, 11SL, 12C, 13C

P: 18
4: 3
2: 4
1: 3

Average: 1.5 points per season


#6 - Green Bay Packers (#5) - 68 pts

Last year, they were passed by as New England shot past them.  Since winning their Super Bowl, they have stalled against the Giants and the 49ers now twice.  Of course, their older fans will remind the crowd that their 13 Championships overall might dispute football history starting in 1966. Nevertheless, in the Super Bowl era, they had a substantial break between Bart Starr and Brett Favre where nothing got accomplished.

Total Points: 68
Total Playoff Years: 66S, 67S, 72, 82, 93, 94, 95C, 96S, 97SL, 98, 01, 02, 03, 04, 07C, 09, 10S, 11, 12, 13

P: 20
4: 2
2: 1
1: 4

Average: 1.42 points per season

# 7 - Denver Broncos (#8) - 64 pts

Peyton Manning had them dreaming of a higher finish in 2012 and in 2013, but despite the #1 seed in the AFC in both of his years they came up short in the end.  However, with the loss in Super Bowl 48, they have passed the New York Giants into 7th place all-time.  This all despite waiting 12 years without a playoff berth when the Super Bowl era began.

Total Points: 64
Total Playoff Years: 77SL, 78, 79, 83, 84, 86SL, 87SL, 89SL, 91C, 93, 96, 97S, 98S, 00, 03, 04, 05C, 11, 12, 13SL

P: 20
4: 2
2: 5
1: 2

Average: 1.33 points per season

#8 - New York Giants (#7) - 59 pts

The Giants, despite their rich history, are a team with a shocking few number of playoff years. Yet, when they do actually get in, they seem to do some pretty special things. 5 Super Bowls in just 14 playoffs years is outstanding.  However, since their Super Bowl win in 2011, they have sat out the last 2 years of the playoffs and have actually only attended the playoffs 1 time in the last 5 seasons.  And yet, in Giants fashion, won the whole thing that year.  Pretty neat trick.

Total Points: 59
Total Playoff Years: 81, 84, 85, 86S, 89, 90S, 93, 97, 00SL, 02, 05, 06, 07S, 08, 11S

P: 14
4: 0
2: 1
1: 4

Average: 1.23 points per season


#9 - Miami Dolphins (#9) - 58 pts

Nothing new to report in Miami.  Another proud franchise with a strong history, but they have certainly allowed that to be about all they have to fall back on this last decade. No consistent QB play and a carousel of coaches have put the Dolphins on the outside looking in since Dan Marino's prime. The drought continues for the Dolphins who have 1 playoff entry of any kind since we started doing this study in 2001.

Total Points: 58
Total Playoff Years: 70, 71SL, 72S, 73S, 74, 78, 79, 81, 82SL, 83, 84SL, 85C, 90, 92C, 94, 95, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 08

P: 22
4: 2
2: 3
1: 2

Average: 1.21 points per season

#10 - Washington Redskins (#10) - 57 pts

Last year at this time, we were wondering how many playoff seasons in a row they would attend with Robert Griffin's career starting to gain momentum.  Well, after a coach-firing disaster in 2013, they start anew with a fresh coaching staff for 2014.  They still reside in the Top 10, barely, but its been 20 years since the Redskins were a Super Bowl possibility.

Total Points: 57
Total Playoff Years: 71, 72SL, 73, 74, 76, 82S, 83SL, 84, 86C, 87S, 90, 91S, 92, 99, 05, 07, 12

P: 17
4: 1
2: 2
1: 3

Average: 1.18 points per season

TEAMS #11-#20
=======================================

#11 - Indianapolis/Baltimore Colts (#11) - 56 pts

Unlike the Dolphins after Dan Marino left town, it appears that the Colts simply started another era of excellence as they put themselves in a position to draft Andrew Luck #1 overall and then, Luck has helped them attend the playoffs in each of his first 2 years and has most people considering him the top QB in all of football under the age of 30 years old.  A playoff win this year

Total Points: 56
Total Playoff Years: 68SL, 70S, 71C, 75, 76, 77, 87, 95C, 96, 99, 00, 02, 03C, 04, 05, 06S, 07, 08, 09SL, 10, 12, 13

P: 22
4: 3
2: 2
1: 2

Average: 1.17 points per season

#12 - Minnesota Vikings (#12) - 53 pts

Every team above the Vikings on this list has not only won a Super Bowl, but they have won at least two Super Bowls. So, for the Vikings to be so close to those teams despite never winning one, surely speaks to their excellence for so many years. 27 playoff entries is more than anyone in the league aside from the Steelers or Cowboys. They just have never won a gold medal. Nor, as it turns out, have they ever had the lead in any of their 4 Super Bowls.  There is something impressive about the Vikings era of excellence and would certainly have a place at the table if they could ever close the deal even once.  That would put them in a totally different light.

Total Points: 53
Total Playoff Years: 68, 69SL, 70, 71, 73SL, 74SL, 75, 76SL, 77C, 78, 80, 82, 87C, 88, 89, 92, 93, 94, 96, 97, 98C, 99, 00C, 04, 08, 09C, 12

P: 27
4: 5
2: 4
1: 0

Average: 1.10 points per season


#13 - St Louis/Los Angeles Rams (#13) - 51 pts

The Rams, out of the playoffs now for almost a decade, are another team that has been pretty quiet during the last several seasons since the days of Kurt Warner and the greatest show on turf. But, in the 1970s, they had a run of 4 years out of 5 where their seasons ended in the NFC Championship game, usually, at the hands of the Cowboys.  But, now with a playoff drought since 2004, are reloading (thanks, Redskins) for another run with all of the draft picks they have gathered.  The Rams also close the distinction of teams who have at least 1 point a year for all 48 years.  The Top 13 can say this, and then there is a significant drop-off to the rest of the field that starts with Philadelphia.

Total Points: 51
Total Playoff Years: 67, 69, 73, 74C, 75C, 76C, 77, 78C, 79SL, 80, 83, 84, 85C, 86, 88, 89C, 99S, 00, 01SL, 03, 04

P: 21
4: 6
2: 2
1: 1

Average: 1.06 points per season


#14 - Philadelphia Eagles (#14) - 36 pts

The Eagles start the next tier of teams who have certainly not been close to averaging a point per season, but have been quite impressive over the course of this study.  The difference, of course, between them and the Patriots is several Lombardi Trophies and that is why most Eagles fans walk the earth with a fair amount of bitterness towards most football topics.  However, Chip Kelly is here and he put the team right into the playoffs in year #1.  One can imagine what his future will be when he gathers "his guys".

Total Points: 36
Total Playoff Years: 78, 79, 80SL, 81, 88, 89, 90, 92, 95, 96, 00, 01C, 02C, 03C, 04SL, 06, 08C, 09, 10, 13

P: 20
4: 4
2: 2
1: 0

Average: 0.75 points per season

#15 - Chicago Bears (#15) - 34 pts

Like Green Bay, the Bears would like to use championships that preceded the Super Bowl era, but in the 48 years of the modern era, the Bears have not been able to string together any prolonged success. In fact, with the exception of those great teams in the 1980's, it has often been a series of good seasons that are not followed with any manner of success in the next year. Like 2010's NFC Championship Game followed by 2011-13 in which they missed the playoffs altogether.  However, they are hopeful with Marc Trestman that there is hope for the future.

Total Points: 34
Total Playoff Years: 77, 79, 84C, 85S, 86, 87, 88C, 90, 91, 94, 01, 05, 06SL, 10C

P: 13
4: 3
2: 1
1: 1

Average: 0.72 points per season

Chicago holds the tiebreaker over Buffalo because of Lombardi Trophies, 1-0.

#16 - Buffalo Bills (#16) - 34 pts

Perhaps demonstrating the value of a single Super Bowl victory, we find the Buffalo Bills tied with the Chicago Bears.  The Bears closed the deal once and are always considered superior to Buffalo, but as you see in our points system, they have both accumulated the same total.  The Bills obviously had their crack at NFL immortality during their 4 year stretch of the 1990s when they ran into NFC East buzz-saws. Since then, they have not sniffed much of anything, with their last moments in the playoffs still being the "Music City Miracle" in Nashville. That was a long, long time ago.  It has now been 14 years since they made the playoffs - the longest drought in the NFL by a very healthy margin.

Total Points: 34
Total Playoff Years: 66C, 74, 80, 81, 88C, 89, 90SL, 91SL, 92SL, 93SL, 95, 96, 98, 99

P: 14
4: 2
2: 4
1: 0

Average: 0.72 points per season


#17 – Baltimore Ravens (#22)

Established 1996 - (The NFL ruled that all old records stay in Cleveland with the Browns.)

The big mover over the last 5 years has been Baltimore.  They have absolutely been dominant in the last 6 years with 3 seasons in the Final 4 and a Lombardi Trophy to boot.  They jumped from #22 to #17 in 2012 and in 18 years have beaten teams who have been around from Super Bowl 1.  2 Super Bowl titles has them puffing out their chests, but they missed the playoffs in 2013 and remain at #17 in a bit of a repositioning season.  On a points-per-season basis, only Pittsburgh, Dallas, and San Francisco can boast better results.

Total Points: 33
Total Playoff Years: 00S, 01, 03, 06, 08C, 09, 10, 11C, 12S

P: 7
4: 2
2: 0
1: 2

Average: 1.83 in 18 years of existence

#18 - Kansas City Chiefs (#19) - 32 pts

The Chiefs played in 2 of the first 4 Super Bowls, winning Super Bowl 4. However, since 1970, the Chiefs have only been to one AFC Championship Game in 1993. Other than that, it has been a series of one-and-outs and plenty of years with no playoffs whatsoever.  But, in 2013, the Chiefs had a great season in year #1 of Andy Reid, and have passed the New York Jets in the process.  I am sure that pleases all involved.

Total Points: 32
Total Playoff Years: 66SL, 68, 69S, 71, 86, 90, 91, 92, 93C, 94, 95, 97, 03, 06, 10, 13

P: 16
4: 1
2: 1
1: 1

Average: 0.66 points per season

The Chiefs win the tie-breaker with the Jets by virtue of having been to more Super Bowls, 2-1.

#19 - New York Jets (#18) - 32 pts

The Jets are certainly a Sportscenter darling most of the time, despite never really being a NFL power.  There is just something enjoyable about covering their stories, evidently.  However, the sum total of their accomplishments still traces back 45 years to that one day in Miami.  After two AFC Championship Games in a row, the Jets have been unable to join the postseason in the last 3. Despite that, Rex Ryan has been able to accomplish more in his 5 seasons than the 40 years prior to that going back to Namath's Super Bowl 3.

Total Points: 32
Total Playoff Years: 68S, 69, 81, 82C, 85, 86, 91, 98C, 01, 02, 04, 06, 09C, 10C

P: 13
4: 4
2: 0
1: 1

Average: 0.66 points per season

#20 - Tennessee Titans/Houston Oilers (#20) - 30 pts

The Titans have held steady since the days of Vince Young back in the drama of 2007-2008.  However, with some reasonable years of success in Houston and one Super Bowl loss in Nashville, the Oilers remain in the Top 20 for now.  Barely.  Not much of interest to report here these days, but they continue to tinker and have changed out coaches again, so stay tuned.

Total Points: 30
Total Playoff Years: 67C, 69, 78C, 79C, 80, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 99SL, 00, 02C, 03, 07, 08

P: 18
4: 4
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.64 points per season

Teams 21-30
==================================

#21 - Seattle Seahawks (#27) - 29 points

Established 1976

Make room for the big mover and shaker in 2013!  After a fantastic 2012, the Seahawks backed it up with the Super Bowl championship in 2013.  Seattle has worked its way to the playoffs 8 times in the last 11. The Seahawks have built a young, physical squad and look ready to keep building and accumulating points, and now sit poised to brag about being one of the top teams of the expansion era and beyond.  They leaped up 6 spots with that win on Sunday and passed their other 1976 expansion team (Tampa Bay) in the process.

Total Points: 29
Total Playoff Years: 83C, 84, 87, 88, 99, 03, 04, 05SL, 06, 07, 10, 12, 13S

P: 13
4: 1
2: 1
1: 1

Average: 0.76 points in 38 seasons of existence.



#22 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#21) - 24 pts

Established 1976

Surely, at this point, the Buccaneers realize that being in a hurry to chase Jon Gruden out of there was mistaken, right? Regardless, a team that hit its prime in the late 90s and rode it to a Super Bowl Championship in 2002, has returned to its place among the also-rans in the NFC. They now have a 6 year streak going with no playoffs and will attempt to get that turned around with a new coaching staff yet again.

Total Points: 24
Total Playoff Years: 79C, 81, 82, 97, 99C, 00, 01, 02S, 05, 07

P: 10
4: 2
2: 0
1: 1

Average: 0.63 - 38 seasons

Tampa Bay holds the tiebreaker over Cleveland because of Lombardi Trophies, 1-0.


#23 - Cleveland Browns (#22) - 24 pts

No season 1996-1998

The post-relocation Cleveland Browns has been absolutely pathetic. One playoff appearance in the 14 seasons since being a new expansion team and really no real signs of having turned the direction of the franchise around. But, let's not act like they were winning a ton before they lost the Browns to Baltimore. They severely need a revival amongst their franchise to give those loyal fans something to smile about in Cleveland.  Mike Pettine, anyone?

Total Points: 24
Total Playoff Years: 67, 68C, 69C, 71, 72, 80, 82, 85, 86C, 87C, 88, 89C, 94, 02

P: 14
4: 5
2: 0
1: 0

Average: 0.53 in 45 seasons

#24 - San Diego Chargers (#23)

The Chargers returned to the playoffs in 2013 and even scored a win at Cincinnati.  Certainly, more was expected from this franchise given their level of QB play they have had for almost 3 decades. But, to this point, they have flirted with some real good teams and even made one Super Bowl, but San Diego still chases its one dream season that may or may not await them down the road.

Total Points: 23
Total Playoff Years: 79, 80C, 81C, 82, 92, 94SL, 95, 04, 06, 07C, 08, 09, 13

P: 13
4: 3
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.48

#25 – New Orleans Saints (#24) - 22 pts

Established 1967

A shocking omission to the playoffs in 2012, thanks to Bounty Gate, but they returned in 2013 and beat the Eagles on the road before being devoured in Seattle.  The Saints are living their glory days right now in the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era, and have won a Super Bowl and flirted with others in the last several years. This once pathetic franchise has raised its accomplishment level several notches and has worked its way out of the basement of franchises in the NFL in quick fashion.

Total Points: 22
Total Playoff Years: 87, 90, 91, 92, 00, 06C, 09S, 10, 11, 13

P: 9
4: 1
2: 0
1: 1

Average: 0.47 in 47 seasons

#26 - Cincinnati Bengals (#27) - 20 pts

Established 1968

The Bengals have 2 different Super Bowl losses to great San Francisco teams in the 1980s. Beyond that, they have never been able to put together consecutive seasons of playoff football until they just did it in 2011-13 with a young group of players including Andy Dalton. Time will tell as Mike Brown running the franchise still has many thinking that long-term success will not happen with him at the helm, but they have actually built a nice foundation.

Total Points: 20
Total Playoff Years: 70, 73, 75, 81SL, 82, 88SL, 90, 05, 09, 11, 12, 13

P: 12
4: 0
2: 2
1: 0

Average: 0.43 - 46 seasons

The Bengals hold the tie-breaker for 26th place over the Falcons by virtue of Super Bowl appearances, 2-1.


#27 – Atlanta Falcons (#26) - 20 pts

We assume that 2013 was a simple blip on the radar of the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan year where everything went wrong and everyone got hurt.  However, after making the playoffs 3 years in a row and cracking the final 4 for the first time in a while in 2012, the Falcons were humbled and play in a very good division moving forward.  They remain at 20 points and actually were passed by the Bengals on a tie breaker down to 27th place.

Total Points: 20
Total Playoff Years: 78, 80, 82, 91, 95, 98SL, 02, 04C, 08, 10, 11, 12C

P: 11
4: 2
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.43


#28 - Carolina Panthers (#28) - 13 pts

Established 1995

Was 2013 the first year of many playoff runs with Cam Newton and Ron Rivera?  The Panthers play the brand of football that has rewarded the 49ers and Seahawks, so I am not betting too hard against them.  They were so close to winning Super Bowl 38, yet the Panthers have only made the playoffs 5 times, but the Final 4 in 3 of those 5 runs. They don't get there often, but when they do, they make it count.

Total Points: 13
Total Playoff Years: 96C, 03SL, 05C, 08, 13

P: 5
4: 2
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.68 - 19 seasons

#29 - Detroit Lions (#29) - 12 pts

As we approach the bottom of our list, we always shake our heads at the Detroit Lions as a team that has seemed to always find the worst possible scenario on their seasons.  If you believe that winning is cyclical, you might argue that the Detroit Lions are on a 60 year cycle.  They appeared to be ready to win for years when they made the playoffs in 2011, but went back to their underachieving ways in 2012 and 2013.

Total Points: 12
Total Playoff Years: 70, 82, 83, 91C, 93, 94, 95, 97, 99, 11

P: 10
4: 1
2: 0
1: 0

Average: 0.25

#30 – Arizona/St Louis Cardinals (#30) - 10 pts

The Cardinals, formerly of St Louis, have not had a very good run of things either (although they do look up at Detroit, amazingly).  They have also built a team that many are bullish on moving forward, but forgive the overall cynicism on anything Cardinals football.  To be ranked 30th and only above two expansion franchises speaks to the futility of this team that has had many horrid seasons in its long history.

Total Points: 10
Total Playoff Years: 74, 75, 82, 98, 08SL, 09

P: 6
4: 0
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.21

Arizona holds tie-breaker over Jacksonville due to Super Bowl appearances, 1-0.

#31 – Jacksonville Jaguars (#31) - 10 pts

Established 1995

Jacksonville certainly showed their fans how easy football was when they took off from expansion and went to the playoffs in 4 of their first 5 years with Tom Coughlin and Mark Brunell getting the Jaguars to two AFC Championship Games. Since then, not much of anything has happened for them and the stadium has a real difficult time finding capacity crowds.

Total Points: 10
Total Playoff Years: 96C, 97, 98, 99C, 05, 07

P: 6
4: 2
2: 0
1: 0

Average: 0.53 per season - 19 seasons

#32 – Houston Texans (32) - 2 pts

Established 2002

The Texans seemed to be on a run of power in the 2011 and 2012 playoffs, but now with the #1 pick in the draft certainly returned to its customary ways with a horrendous 2013.  That said, they are a team with many talented parts in place and most would be wise to expect a competitive 2014 after being humbled again.  It will take a Super Bowl to get them out of 32nd next year, but they at least have something to work with.  We shall see.

Total Points: 2
Total Playoff Years: 11, 12

P: 2
4: 0
2: 0
1: 0

Average: 0.16 - 12 seasons

Explanation of Years:
Just the year means they made the playoffs (1 point). Year followed by “C” means they lost in the Conference Championship Game (3 points), Year followed by “SL” means they lost the Super Bowl (5 points), and Year followed by “S” means they won the Super Bowl (11 points).

Version 12.0

Version 11.0

Version 10.0

Version 9.0

Version 8.0

Version 7.0 

Version 6.0 

Wednesday, September 04, 2013

Growing Your Own NFL Teams

When we roll out statistics these days, the bottom line question will always be: "What does it mean when it comes to winning games?"

As it should be.

Any way we measure a team should always be put to the test of who is winning games and how they are winning them and whether or not this particular statistic has anything to do with that end goal.

Well, in the National Football League, I believe there is a tried and true principle that is only becoming more important as we go that is claimed to be closely tied to winning.  And I wanted to see if it was true, because while I believe in it deeply, what shows up in the standings is the truth.

That truth is being a homegrown franchise is the best way to build a consistent winner.  In other words, those teams that build their roster primarily from their own draft picks and own college free agents will always win more games over the long haul.  The reason and logic being that you do not participate in the poor investment of free agency which throws off your structure and brings in players who do not have equity in the organization.  It can also mean that football players are of most use at the least cost to their franchise in the 4 years immediately after leaving college.  Either way, if you grow your own, you are a franchise that is "always in the mix".  If you don't, you likely are not - using other team's castoffs and trying to patch-work a team of vagabonds.  It is very difficult to build a mansion with your neighbor's garbage.

Now, in the field of arguing, sample sizes are thrown together to prove and disprove things, and many have said that you can get statistics to say anything.  Maybe, but we want to be a bit more discriminating and use broader samples to make sure that we see the bigger picture.  Therefore, let's use 5-year results.

On the other hand, we also must understand that players have ages and their ages cause their effectiveness to fluctuate and therefore what is true today may not be true in a few years.  Whether this particular measurement is a predictor is anyone's guess.

I broke down all 32 rosters to see how many of the players were in fact, homegrown.  How many were the team's own picks, how many were college free agents, and how many were brought in from afar.

We found that the average NFL team's final 53-man roster contained 33 home grown players or 62% of the roster.  The very high end - Green Bay and Atlanta each had 43 players make their final 53 who were their own players from college - was 81% and the very low end was the Indianapolis Colts who have put just 25 players on their 53-man roster for 47%.

Of course, you might say that the Colts have done plenty of winning in the last 5 years (49 wins) and this is not helping your correlation theory, much.

True.  So let's list the top 5 and bottom 5 and see what turns up.

TOP 5 HOMEGROWN (Wins Are Regular Season Only)
Team Home Grown  5 Yr Wins
Atlanta 43 56
Green Bay 43 53
Pittsburgh 40 53
Baltimore 39 54
Houston 39 45
Top 5 40.8 52.2

BOTTOM 5 HOMEGROWN
Team Home Grown 5 Yr Wins
Indianapolis 25 49
Washington 26 33
Detroit 27 22
Tampa Bay 28 33
NY Jets 29 43
Bottom 5 27 36

So, the Top 5 teams in the NFL for having their own talent win 52.2 games on average for the last 5 years and the Bottom 5 win 36 games.  That is a 10 win season and a 7 win season for 5 years straight to get to those numbers.  

In today's NFL, that is rather significant, don't you think?

So, where does that leave the Dallas Cowboys?  Actually, with 36 players on their roster who are life-long Dallas Cowboys players on their 53, they aren't in bad shape.  That ranks them in a group at about 10th best in the NFL and in very strong shape with teams that are also in the playoff mix generally, Minnesota, Cincinnati, New England, the NY Giants, and maybe a team that is on the rise in the St Louis Rams.

The Cowboys have 23 of their own picks on their roster.  That is below the NFL average of 26.2, but where they really clean up is that they rank 2nd in the NFL behind St Louis in their own college free agents on the roster.  They have 13 of them and the NFL average is 7.  

People often ask me if the Cowboys get enough credit for finding college free agents and it is a good question.  How many can say they found their franchise QB as a college free agent?  But, when you get to 13, you do have to counter with asking how they have that many spaces available?  If you only have 53 spots, it would seem that you would need to miss on a lot of actual draft picks to have vacancies to accommodate that many undrafted players.  So, yes, they have more undrafted players, but you could argue it is much easier to make Dallas' roster than a team that is hitting on its picks more often.  

In fact, only New Orleans has more college free agents (from any originating franchise) on their 2013 53-man squad with 23.  Dallas has 19 - tied with Seattle.  The NFL Average for undrafted players on a roster is 14, and the low is the NY Giants with just 9 players who did not get selected by anyone in their draft.

Back to our study, when we look at the worst at homegrown talent, the bottom 10 is completed with Oakland, Denver, Jacksonville, Carolina, and Chicago. Those 10 teams are all franchises that currently have 30 or fewer players on their roster who are homegrown.

There are obviously wildcards in this mix.  But, tell me, which of the following 2 groups do you associate with generally winning 10 games and which is generally losing 10 games?

Top 10 in Homegrown Talent: Falcons, Packers, Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Patriots, Giants, Bengals, Vikings, and Cowboys

These teams have 489 wins in the last 5 years - 9.8 wins per year, per team.

Bottom 10 in Homegrown Talent: Colts, Buccaneers, Lions, Redskins, Jets, Bears, Panthers, Jaguars, Broncos, and Raiders

These teams have 358 wins in the last 5 years - 7.1 wins per year, per team.

There is much more to this study, and much more to winning (Peyton Manning seems to help), but when you wonder what the teams that win consistently have in common, look here.  Depth is what covers teams.  Depth is due to solid drafting and cheap players filling out the back half of your roster, but not just cheap - Quality and cheap.  

You win by securing players early and then letting them grow for you.  Pulling through your competition's trash can yield results on occasion, but generally not enough over the long haul.  The Cowboys are starting to figure this out.  Let's see if they can stay on course.