The Morning After: NFC Championship Game Edition

With the hype and buildup before games like this, we seldom have a delivery of what we all desire.  The idea that two teams - in this case, both division rivals that are built in largely similar fashions - would slug it out at the expense of each other's well-being for 3 hours of nationally televised entertainment is often too much to expect on the big stages.  The hype outweighs the reality.

However, quite clearly to me, on this occasion, both Seattle and San Francisco left it completely on the field in a classic game that won't be forgotten by its witnesses anytime soon.  I know that the human body could not sustain the punishment of my proposal, but if they wanted to switch these to a Best of 7 series between the two teams, I would be all for it.

In the end, Seattle survived.  Barely.  It was the ability to turn the ball over 3 times in the final 15 minutes that helped the #1 seed and home team to advance to Super Bowl 48 in 2 weeks.  The +2 turnover margin is hard enough to overcome, but to place all 3 of your giveaways in the final quarter with the Super Bowl on the line was a bridge too far for the road team to overcome.

But, this game was not just about turnovers.  It was about physical play that made viewers cringe.  It was about flying around the ball and almost nobody protecting themselves to make a play.  It was about brutal hits and guys being helped off the field.  I don't know that it made anyone more comfortable with the long-term effects of seeing these guys treat their bodies with such disregard, but the spectacle of it all is impossible to resist if you love this game.  The pack mentality of both teams playing with a unified spirit of how they believe the game should be played could have had no other outcome.  When these two teams, who most Sundays are the clear bullies to their opponents, square off against each other, you knew that there would be a square-off that could not be missed.

As a viewer who was unaffiliated with the teams involved, it makes you consider a number of things with a far more league-wide application.  Such as, do we think that the local team can ever assemble enough bullies to stand up to this sort of treatment, or like the Saints last week or the Packers the week before, do you attempt to survive it for 60 minutes by trying to adapt your style to theirs?  It would be more sustainable to simply understand that although Hal Mumme, Art Briles, Mike Leach, and Chip Kelly have all aided the evolution of football to something that isn't just a trench fight, it still is the best plan to build a roster that cannot be pushed around from top to bottom and from little to big.  Those two rosters, as I wrote about last week, have built their entire organizations around the plan of never being the weaker side in a fight.  Now, the skills on each player vary as they always do, but they are looking for a certain type of player and that is the type of guy who is not going to back down when challenged.

Yes, they still want speed and skills, but they are clearly placing a premium on disposition and guys who aren't allergic to the occasional personal foul or barking match.  I know this leads to many shades of gray and perhaps a discussion that includes contradictions throughout, but if you don't think those teams are playing a modified style from the NFC powers of 2009-2010 when New Orleans and Green Bay were winning their Super Bowls which included limited helpings of physical intimidation, then I believe we aren't watching the same thing.

Further, the QB play is very interesting and this I am more skeptical about the sustainability of being able to win while asking your QB to carefully navigate a game and make plays at selected times without being the focal part of the team for the entire game.  Teams with Brady, Manning, Rodgers or Brees (and teams without titles who have a guy like Romo) often echo the sentiments of going as far as the extremely highly compensated QB takes them.

I think Russell Wilson is a better QB than Colin Kaepernick, but I also believe that both are fascinating studies of young QBs who will need premium money soon and their clubs will have to decide whether or not to back up the truck for $15-$20m per season when the extensions are due.

Both possess a fantastic ability to defy the Xs and Os and make something out of a play that is breaking down, and both had moments yesterday and throughout these playoffs where they pulled it off again with awesome improv skills.  But, we have seen a few QBs in the last few years who have had a great season or two and then disappeared.  You may recall Vince Young and Tim Tebow who were the next big thing, and before we allow 5 highlight plays to overshadow the role of a QB for 60 plays over the entire game and 16 games over the course of a season, we all should be willing to ask whether we are allowing winning to replace scrutiny about the down to down skills of a QB.

Wilson, like I said, is a more balanced QB and seems to be far better at a number of important skills that teams look for.  If he was 4 inches taller, he would have almost no doubters.  In fact, he is clearly a player being asked to win without premium WRs or a premium TE at his disposal.  If I am Seattle, I feel good about Wilson and increasing his workload so that down the road when I have some proper weapons for him it won't seem out of character to try to get 20-24 completions out of him once in a while as opposed to the 15 that they presently get.

As for Kaepernick, he is a real mystery to me.  In this day and age of "Youtube scouting" he should likely be the internet consensus as the best player alive.  Youtube scouting, of course, is the habit of evaluating a player based on his 10 best highlights of his career.  And Colin is absurd by that standard and again yesterday with his 58 yard run and his ridiculous TD jump-throw to Anquan Boldin demonstrated his unreal upside.  He makes the most difficult throws and of course can seemingly convert a 3rd and 10 with about 4 strides when he decides to run.

But, in that 4th Quarter, he showed his warts again and they weren't pretty.  At 10:17 to go, when rolling left on a 3rd and 6, he tried to throw against his body and did not feel the rush and put the ball in harm's way for Cliff Avril to strip from the backside.  Michael Bennett recovered and ran the ball back to the San Francisco 6.

Then, with 7:44 to play, Kaepernick played right into the Seahawks hand by throwing the out route that Seattle had been trying to undercut all day.  This time, big Kam Chancellor intercepted the pass intended for Boldin and down 20-17 at the time, this set up the Seahawks for a possible kill shot.  The worst part about the play was that it was the dreaded 1st down interception which, of course, is a horrible outcome of a play that has no reason to risk the possession.

Of course, the 49ers then were able to force another FG and were still only down 23-17 and were going to get the ball back with their full allotment of time-outs and plenty of time (3:37).

By this time the stadium is rocking and the Seahawks pass rush is not helping the situation for Kaepernick.  He converts a 4th and 2 on another roll left, throw across the body pass to Frank Gore who had a very limited impact on the contest to convert.  Then, Kaepernick barely eluded another interception on the same out route that was picked off earlier as Walter Thurmond was on the scene but a few inches below the pass.

16 yards to Crabtree on that pass, but Crabtree heads back inbounds rather than stepping out forcing the 49ers to use their first timeout with 0:55.  Next play, right down the middle to Davis for 11 more to the Seahawks 18.  Now, the 49ers show no urgency and walk to the line and snap the ball with 0:29 and still have all of their timeouts.  It is 1st down and Kaepernick sees Michael Crabtree man up against Richard Sherman and goes for the fade.  As you know, Sherman got his hand on the ball and tipped it to the arms of the waiting LB Malcolm Smith and the game ended on yet another 1st Down interception and the 3rd turnover of the 4th Quarter.  They had timeouts and downs in reserve and put the game on beating one of the best corners in the game.  It certainly made you question the lack of a timeout being used by Jim Harbaugh and the decision of the QB when the drive was in a great spot.  If they used the timeout, they have 0:50 and just 18 yards to go.  There was no reason to hurry.

And that was the margin for the game.  For San Francisco, a team thought of as having as stacked a deck as you could have, it is another season without the Lombardi Trophy despite making the Final 4 three straight years.  In all 3 of those years, they appeared right there and ready to win it all.  Would they have done better or worse with Alex Smith?  Decisions made along the way are always fun to consider for those of us who love to ponder such things.

Meanwhile, now Seattle must take on Denver for the Super Bowl.  This will be a very enjoyable game to discuss, but it will be a bit before I get to that.

As for the other lasting memories from the game, Navorro Bowman's injury, the odd rule application of that very play, Marshawn Lynch's touchdown run, and of course Sherman with Erin Andrews will all be high on the list.

An instant classic that put the #1 seed of the NFC for the regular season in the Super Bowl for the first time since New Orleans in 2009.  Great stuff and a very high bar for the rest of the conference to pursue.

The Morning After - 2013 NFC Divisional Round - Beat Down Football

Just 3 games remain in the 2013 NFL season, so get yourself prepared for something else to occupy your time (like the NFL Combine, NFL Free Agency, and the NFL Draft) because this thing is coming down to its conclusion quite quickly.  And as we continue our annual exercise of following the NFC side of the playoffs with a close eye of examination, the trends that are appearing before our eyes continue to explain the difference to many of us between teams that are still playing and teams that are already a few weeks into their time on Mexican beaches.

And to me, as we ponder the Seattle Seahawks hosting the San Francisco 49ers in one week to determine which one of these teams will represent the NFC - against either AFC team that will surely be favored to win because of a living-legend playing QB - the ties that bind these two teams is unmistakeable.

First, it suggests that the playoff format generally determines with reasonable clarity who the best two teams are.  I know there has been plenty of gnashing of teeth over the idea that the 12-win 49ers had to go play 8-win Green Bay at their place, but the contenders seemed to roll over the pretenders with relative clarity in these playoffs, and sometimes the two best teams may play in the same division.  At the same time, unless you want to easily fix this whole thing by dropping the divisions altogether, play a 16 game schedule that includes playing 15 games against the other 15 opponents in the conference and one extra "rival" game (Packers-Bears, Cowboys-Redskins, etc) or one special inter conference game (Jets-Giants, 49ers-Raiders, Cowboys-Texans), then I think you have to keep it how it is.  By the way, I would green light the balanced schedule and no divisions in a heart-beat, but I am sure that is the English Soccer fan in me speaking up.  The point is that if you are going to play schedules where the NFC West teams play a schedule that is not similar at all to NFC South teams, then I would not approve of giving Wildcard champs a better seed than divisional champs as a general rule.  If San Francisco is truly a better side, they can prove it on the field - Like they just did.

That is perhaps a lesson learned over the years by fans of the modern NFL.  Nobody disputes that given the choice, you would certainly rather be the home team in a playoff game, but the last several years show that there is no amount of crowd noise or funny signs or even Mom's home cooking that can overcome the superiority of an opponent.  Look at those home records since 2005.  Road teams that get on a roll can go all the way to the Super Bowl - sometimes because they are just the better team (back to the best wildcard team being better than several division winners).  Notice below how many times in the 1990s where the home teams were 8-2 in a playoff season.  Then, note how many times the playoff records are 5-5 or 6-4 these days.  Parity.

Year	Home Record	AFC Seeds	NFC Seeds
1990	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
1991	8-2	1* vs 2	1* vs 2
1992	5-5	2 vs 4*	1 vs 2*
1993	8-2	1* vs 3	1* vs 2
1994	8-2	1 vs 2*	1* vs 2
1995	7-3	2* vs 5	1* vs 3
1996	8-2	2* vs 5	1* vs 2
1997	6-4	2 vs 4*	1 vs 2*
1998	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
1999	7-3	1 vs 4*	1* vs 2
2000	8-2	2 vs 4*	1* vs 2
2001	7-3	1 vs 2*	1* vs 3
2002	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
2003	6-4	1* vs 3	1 vs 3*
2004	6-4	1 vs 2*	1* vs 2
2005	4-6	2 vs 6*	1* vs 5
2006	8-2	3* vs 4	1* vs 2
2007	5-5	1* vs 3	2 vs 5*
2008	5-5	2* vs 6	4* vs 6
2009	7-3	1* vs 5	1* vs 2
2010	4-6	2* vs 6	2 vs 6*
2011	8-2	1* vs 2	2 vs 4*
2012	6-4	2 vs 4*	1 vs 2*
2013	4-4	1 vs 2	1 vs 5

Table Tutorial

(* = Super Bowl Team)

But, that is merely a detail that historians might find interesting.  That doesn't discuss why the Seahawks and 49ers seem to have figured out how to deal with everyone in the NFC but each-other with relative ease if we look at 2012 and 2013 as a whole.  Since Nov 1, 2012, the Seattle Seahawks are 22-5 combined, while the 49ers have now been to 3 consecutive NFC Championship games and were obviously quite close to winning the Super Bowl last season.  Since the start of 2011 when they hired new coach Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco is an absurd 41-13-1.  He took over the franchise from Mike Singletary who was 18-22 in 40 games as the coach.

Pete Carroll took over the Seahawks before the 2010 season, when the team went 7-9, hosted a playoff game and got a win.  He is now 38-26 in the regular season as their coach and has a playoff win in 3 of his 4 years and will now host the NFC Championship game.  Before he got there, Mike Holmgren and Jim Mora, Jr were 9-23 in 2008-2009 running the same franchise.

Do Carroll and Harbaugh have some secret formula for reviving 2 franchises that were on the road to nowhere when they arrived?

No.  But, they seemed to agree when building a team.  Build with the toughest possible player you can find at every spot.  And then, over the course of 60 minutes, maul your opponent into submission.  Would they love to have the best QB in the league land in their laps?  Sure.  But, the fact that they both have built these franchises up (with plenty of help from the personnel departments) into unstoppable forces without the aid of Peyton Manning or some 40-TD QB is worth noting.  They had to build complete rosters with no weaknesses, and they seemed to have done it with shocking quickness through proper drafts and a philosophy that was consistent throughout the entire operations.

So, when you watched the Seahawks batter the Saints on Saturday, followed by the 49ers taking down a strong Carolina team on Sunday, I imagine, like me, you were struck by how strong and physical both of these franchises are, and how in all the playoff games they were in, their opponents could not stand up to that over 4 Quarters.

In fact, I might argue that while there are several elements to winning a football game, the most clear characteristic of these two teams is that they simply beat you up.  And while every team in the NFL has plenty of bullies on it who are not going to back down to a physical scrap, it sure looks like Seahawks GM John Schneider and 49ers GM Trent Baalke found coaches who fit their ideas, and then decided to load up players at all positions that are cut from the same cloth they so desire.

Look up and down the rosters in each city.  First the Seahawks; when you look at players like Marshawn Lynch, Golden Tate, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, and of course, Richard Sherman, you see players that are either physically imposing or guys who play with a cocky, physical edge that just won't give in an inch.  And those are their "little" guys.  Those are RBs, WRs, CBs, and Safeties.  Think about that for a second, if they are going to have guys who are looking for someone to unload on at those positions, then what are their LBs, DEs, and OTs like?  Exactly.  And before long, it seems like you are trying to deal with an army of brutes who are all marching in lockstep to this philosophy of beating you to submission.  They roll depth at defensive line and linebackers that allows them to pay at a frenzied pace and a pass rush that makes the Saints almost not even attempt to run their normal offense.

Instead, the instinct for Sean Payton was to run the ball and to try to match physicality with the Seahawks based on the weather and what he thought the game called for.  So, here are the Saints with runs on the 1st two plays of nearly every single 1st half possession.  They wanted to try to grind it out with the Seahawks?  How does that compute?  If Seattle does this every week and you are going to try to do it this once, how do you think that will work out?  It didn't.  And New Orleans went home rather meekly.  It was 16-0 at halftime and Jimmy Graham looked like he would rather be anywhere than running through a secondary that was yelling and bumping into him all day.  The Saints looked uncomfortable the whole afternoon which is the entire design trait of the Seattle roster.

Which leads us to the industry standard in that category, San Francisco.  It is tough to say who came up with and carried out this idea first (Seattle or San Fran), but with Baalke and Harbaugh, it almost worked immediately.  Unlike Seattle, San Francisco had some elite players already in the building when the new regime took over, so to start with Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree is a nice trick, but Baalke's 2010 and 2011 drafts are right up there with the 2 best back to back drafts any team has had in this generation.

In 2010, Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati, and Navorro Bowman were the headliners, and then in 2011, it was Aldon Smith and Colin Kaepernick.  The roster is built so solidly, and then unlike some of the other teams in the league who are allergic to free agency and trades (Ted Thompson), the 49ers grab Donte Whitner and Anquan Boldin to further add to the pile as players who again fit that profile of what 49ers football is all about.

Which, like Seattle, is to put as many pit bulls in the same place as possible and grind you into a fine powder.  Remember the small players in Seattle who set the attitude?  How does Frank Gore, Boldin, and even Kaepernick strike you there?  Teams that don't play that style every week (Green Bay) faces them in a street fight and we see the familiar results as they have taken down a speed/finesse offense 4 times in 2 years.

It is not QB-based football.  Both teams have fine young QBs, but neither is hardly ever at or above 20 completions in a game.  They don't throw the ball first and they don't love having to rally.  They use physical football as their weapon and philosophy, and as their record indicates, it is working really well.

Jim Harbaugh is 4-2 against Seattle, but his last 2 trips into Seattle have been two blowout losses by a combined score of 71-29.  Both teams are loaded with bullies up and down the roster. and will not back down, even to each other.

I think as you look at your team, the Dallas Cowboys, you have to ask yourself if the team has a unified philosophy that tells the league what you are all about.  Can a clear pattern be seen if someone watches you from afar and does that philosophy scare anyone?

Because the NFC right now is chasing these 2 teams.  And from the results in the last 2 years, the gap doesn't really seem like it is shrinking.

The meek may inherit the earth, but it sure doesn't seem like they are getting to the Super Bowl in the NFC.  There is nothing meek about these two teams that are left standing.

The Morning After - Wildcard Weekend 2013

I think I would like to open this review of Wildcard Weekend with an overall point that in at least 3 media places last week, I saw/heard/read NFL media people pontificating about the idea that the NFL better look in the mirror regarding the potential for non-sellouts of their playoff games.  The media types, who it should be noted must come up with compelling content every day and sometimes miss their mark, were trying to make the point that this is a serious matter and that the league better beware of what might be its popularity plateauing before its very eyes.  If you can't sellout playoff games in a timely fashion, you better recognize that some are not thrilled with your product!

Ridiculous.

I said it then and I will say it now.  If you think there is anything remotely as compelling as a playoff weekend in the National Football League anywhere in sports today, then we will have to agree to disagree.  The lack of sellouts in a small way may speak to the idea that the league is going to have to adjust to the way its consumer enjoys its products (as in, slightly less gate revenue (especially in arctic conditions), and substantially more television revenue), but the idea that the league has done anything to affect the number of people who cannot wait until the next weekend's playoff games is just flat out ridiculous.

And I believe this point is easily substantiated by the gigantic television numbers and what appeared to be 4 stadiums that were rocking and rolling despite 3 of them in the outdoor winter north.

I know we get bored sometimes, NFL media, but you can save yourself from looking silly by scratching the "is the NFL losing popularity" topic off your list.  It seems to be doing just fine.  We can certainly ask if the blackout rule is silly and antiquated, but as far as how many humans are consuming the NFL product either in person or through their television, that number has never been higher and will surely only continue to go up.

Now, each playoff Monday, we want to examine the games a bit and look at it from a purely NFC point of view, as we continue to see where the Cowboys are and where they need to go.  You know, one major point from Jerry Jones over the last several seasons is that the Cowboys are really, really close.  This is proven to him by the idea that the team is playing for the NFC East division on the final week of the season in 2011, 2012, and 2013.  And, if that game goes slightly differently, his team - and not their opponent - will represent the division by hosting a playoff game in the tournament and then, "anything can happen!"

Of course, it resonates with the audience a bit better when the Giants then go on a Super Bowl run like they did in 2011.  However, the truth is that when a team that is 8-8 is playing for its division title on the final Sunday, chances are really good that the division lacks any sort of real power.  And, as Philadelphia was dismissed by New Orleans on Saturday - like Washington last season at home to Seattle - we see that there are no easy games in the playoffs even if they are at home and the Cinderella runs that some teams go on are the exception to the rule and not the rule itself.

The NFC East did look like it sent its best team to the playoffs this year, and the Eagles must be optimistic about the idea of Chip Kelly now having another offseason to further put together a roster that suits his overall vision.  I do continue to see that although the efficiency of Nick Foles is amongst the best single-season QBs of all time, he certainly has a ways to go with regards to playing the position at an elite level.  I realize we are stat driven in our analysis and I am in no position to leave that post, but  when I look at Foles and see his actual game action, I am left wanting in many categories.  Maybe the first thing he has to clean up is his inability to recognize game theory under fire and although he loathes throwing the ball where it can be intercepted, he simply cannot take sacks in certain scenarios.  He also is not great at adjusting when his first read is gone and the biggest point of all is that this offense is set up to protect the QB from having to do too much as Foles leads the league in screen pass yardage and low leverage throws that are both safe and able to reap big yards with runs after the catch.  However, there is a time in every game where you have to move the chains on 3rd and long, and that requires a QB who can see and attack the whole field, and I know he is young, but I don't see Foles as that now and am not high on him in the future.

I realize he is young and has all sorts of room for improvement, but I don't think NBC is doing him any favors by putting him on the screen with Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning for two weeks in a row and basically grouping them all together based on single-season QB Rating.  The truth is that I anticipate that Chip Kelly's QBs will always be over 100 in QB rating, but that might prove more of an issue with how QB rating is calculated than it does the excellence of a QB who accumulates most of his yardage by either horizontal throws or deep throws over the top (one of the safest throws in the sport) and never attacks the secondary where the elite QBs often do.  Nobody debates that he is a better QB than Michael Vick at this point, but I wouldn't be shocked if Chip Kelly keeps looking and by 2015 has a new starting QB in Philadelphia.

The Eagles lost the game mostly because they could never get their offense going like they were accustomed to doing.  They were out gained by nearly 200 yards by the Saints and despite having a giant +2 turnover advantage as Drew Brees was feeling generous, were not looking themselves offensively for the 2nd week in a row.  There is no question that Kelly's offense raised the bar in the league for standards of excellence, but you would feel a bit better if it didn't end the season with two offensive games that were rather unimpressive at the moment of truth.

Meanwhile, the NFC North also had a rough year in producing a fantastic champion, and like the NFC East, the north now has nobody left in the tournament, either, as Green Bay lost at home to the mighty 49ers.  Now, a lot is being made about Green Bay losing at home and that they are the dominant home team that they once were, but for whatever reason, people are ignoring the fact that the 49ers were favored in this game, and only because of the NFL's playoff format granting a division champion a home game would a 8 win team ever host a playoff game in the first place.

I picked San Francisco to play Denver in the Super Bowl back in August, so that should speak of what I think of the 49ers, and I honestly don't think I am changing my mind now.  I am leery of Colin Kaepernick's consistency level throwing the ball, but that team is built as a team should be built.  Strong, physical, and just solid across their entire lineup.  It doesn't seem that they rely on any one player on either side of the ball, as SF has a roster that compliments itself wonderfully.

Kaepernick's ability to improvise on a key 3rd down blitz when he broke the contain of Jarrett Bush was the play that won the game and it is so difficult to defend.  But, overall, I think the physicality on both sides of the ball is what makes SF a legitimate contender again this year and what has sent the Packers home again in this entertaining rivalry.

Much like the Saints/Eagles game, the final score was determined by a kick in the final seconds.  Fox did not do a great job in describing what had happened so there are plenty of fans this morning that believe that the Packers almost saved themselves with this near block of the Phil Dawson field goal effort at the end.  The ball goes through the arms of Davon House and nearly hits him in the face.  How did he not block that?  And didn't the football gods smile on the 49ers.

Well, no.  Fox didn't tell you the important thing here is that House was offsides.  Even if he blocks it, the 49ers get another FG, even closer and they still win.

From the game book:

(:03) P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-K.McDermott, Holder-A.Lee.Penalty on GB-D.House, Defensive Offside, declined. 

Green Bay can look at injuries to so many key players as a valid excuse that their season has ended so early with one of the best QBs in the sport, but then again, they should likely blame themselves for too many points left on the field and plays unmade yesterday.  Just 2 passes of over 20 yards for that offense and both were to Randall Cobb as James Jones and Jordy Nelson had chances and were unable to come down with them, making some of us wonder if they are a fantastic dome team that has to play their home games at about 0 degrees in January.  It can be done, but if you look back to 2010 when they won the Super Bowl, they played 0 home games (although they did play outdoor games on grass in Chicago and Philadelphia) and were able to run their aerial game without any dispute from nature.  They might be the rare team that doesn't mind packing its bags in the postseason, but more than anything, they need to fix their defense once and for all.

The Saints move on to travel to Seattle and the 49ers head to Carolina.  What seemed obvious 3 months ago was that the Seahawks and 49ers were the 2 best teams in the NFC and that they would likely play for the NFC Championship game.  Now, here we are, and I don't really have any issue with that forecast at all, but I am sure the NFC South teams will and that is why we will tune in and be ready to roll next weekend for another great list of games.

Home teams won just once this weekend (1-3), as the Colts beat the Chiefs in a real classic that we shall talk about for years.  And the winner of the turnover battle also went 1-3, as the Chargers were the only team to turn the opponent's generosity into points.

Watching these games on the first 2 weekends of every playoff year always make me arrive at the same spot.  The games are so close and so competitive that you have a hard time with firm conclusions that are just cut and dried.  But there is one that is reached in my head.  And that is that as fans or media, we have an unrealistic view of our team compared to the guys who run those squads.

Sure, the ultimate goal is to win the Super Bowl, but I imagine the best organizations understand that in a 12 team tournament, it is just not realistic to plan very many parades.  For crying out loud, the Patriots have been shut out for a decade (2004 was last Super Bowl win) and Peyton Manning has only scaled the mountain one time.  It is really hard to win the Super Bowl.  Rather, if pressed, I imagine a NFL architect would have to concede that the real goal is to get into the playoffs every year and give yourself a chance.  Once in there, the ball can bounce oddly and it might be in your favor.  If you are always in the tournament, at some point, the dealer might smile upon you.

If you go to the postseason 7 years in a row, or 8 out of 10, odds are very good that you will have a magical run in there. But, that is the trick.  Not to make the playoffs twice a decade, but to build a team with depth and quality that can go every year and even though most of those runs will end in tears, once or twice, you might win a few games and get on a roll with the injuries avoiding you.

4 teams remain in the NFC and 8 in entire NFL.  That means good news and bad news.  The good news is that we have 7 more games remaining in the season of playoff gold.  The bad news is that we have just 7 games left in the NFL season before we have to do something else with our time.