2015 NFL Draft #66 - James Sample, S, Louisville

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.

Find all the profiles here.

James Sample, S, Louisville - 6'1, 209 - Senior - 4.56 40

Every player takes a different path to the NFL Draft.  Many, as we have detailed in this space, are 4-star recruits who have many schools attempting to convince the player to come play with them, and then 3 years later he is ready to make money playing football as a spotless and highly-touted player.  

Others are on a more circuitous route.  Take James Sample who was highly recruited by many Pac-12 schools out of high school, went to Washington where he spent most of his 2 years injured, then attended a year at a Junior College known as "American River College", before playing 1 season at Louisville - next to the safety that led the nation in interceptions (Gerod Holliman) and replacing another safety who had been taken in the 1st round by the New York Jets (Calvin Pryor).

But, that is Sample's story, and with 90 tackles, 4 interceptions, and a lot of moments where he impressed observers when they were originally there to watch Holliman play, we examined his work against Virginia, Boston College, Kentucky, and Florida State to see just how good he is. 

Sample wears #2 for the Cardinals:

What I liked:  Sample is a safety with many desirable attributes including really impressive range, a thirst to tackle anything that is wearing the other team's colors, and plenty of thump to actually deliver on his intentions.  He is a player who has very good size for his position and is able to patrol the secondary in the way you would hope - a style that puts doubt in receivers that run through his space.  He is a tackling machine and in the Sample versus Holliman debates, it has been pointed out a time or two that he can be spotted running past his safety partner to make a stop.  He is pretty impressive in coverage as well when asked to run man-to-man with a tight end or a wide out.  He has the skills to offer 2-deep range over the top.

What I did not like:  He looks like he could use a bit more technique and coaching on his reads and his evaluations of what quarterbacks are trying to do to manipulate his position on the field.  They all have tricks and occasionally, Sample is falling for the college QB tricks, so you can believe that veteran NFL QBs would see him in the secondary and try to move him with their eyes or shoulders to open up passing lanes.  This is normal, but something to consider.  Also, I think he may not be the type to slide right in as a single-high free safety candidate as his hips may not be ideal for that type of job.  Sometimes, he is going for the KO and needs to just wrap up on tackles.  But, otherwise, he is really an impressive gem that has been found in his short time at Louisville.

  

Summary:  Sample checks all of the boxes with regards to being a player with really nice potential that could be a special teams stud early and then move up your depth chart quickly in "big nickel" or at strong safety.  I might want to go slowly if we need a free safety, but if there is one thing that Sample will do, it is go after players and bring them down.  When starting deep and seeing a play in front of him, he has fantastic skills to get the angle right, fight through traffic, and get the ball carrier to the ground.  This, the idea of ending plays, is the most important objective of any safety and he does it very well on a consistent basis.  I think he is absolutely the type of back-end talent that you target in the Top 100.  

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.

And, if you don't mind, please check out the Bob and Dan (BaD) Radio show in Dallas-Fort Worth, from 12p-3p, Monday-Friday, on Sportsradio 1310 and 96.7fm, The Ticket.  www.theticket.com 

2015 NFL Draft #29 - TJ Yeldon, RB, Alabama

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.

Find all the profiles here.

Click here to see an interactive of how Yeldon compares with the top RBs of the draft.

Jan 1, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide running back T.J. Yeldon (4) celebrates a touchdown during the second quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the 2015 Sugar Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

TJ Yeldon, RB, Alabama - 6'1, 226 - Junior

What makes the NFL draft such a difficult study - even for those who do it at the highest level for their entire careers, is that there is no way to equalize performances.  You cannot measure - fairly - the difference between being surrounded by future NFL players at every position when playing teams that have a significant talent disadvantage versus a player who is the only NFL prospect on his offense, playing teams who are generally better man for man.

That is why when you look at a RB from Indiana and a RB from Alabama, you have to trust your eyeballs, but also remind them all of those variables that make it next to impossible how to completely and fairly evaluate the RB on his own merits.  Then, you have past Alabama Runners who blur the vision of TJ Yeldon even more.  Nevertheless, we tried to judge him on his own merits by looking at Auburn, Mississippi State, West Virginia, and Ohio State for this report.

What I liked:  There is plenty to like on the surface with Yeldon.  He is a big, strong, and at times electric back who can do it all once he gets in the open field.  There have been times over his 3 years at Alabama where he has been absolutely jaw-dropping with his runs that show the combination of size and quick feet that you really want to see.  As a receiver he has the ability to catch and run on the fly, although he was used minimally in that regard.  He is a strong kid who can bust a tackle and forces you to take him on squarely or he will leave you behind.  He does have a nice burst through the line of scrimmage and gets into the open field with vision that often results in a big play.  Also, there is no question he has an extra gear when he gets down near the goal-line where he is willing to get that last yard regardless of what it takes.  Sometimes, he appears to be very decisive as a runner.

What I did not like:  Unfortunately, there is also plenty to question.  He runs upright which does two things - risks the ball and makes himself a much larger target.  You could argue in 2014, there were many occasions where he was the type of RB who "gets what is blocked" for him, meaning, the results were rather replacement-level behind the ground-and-pound Alabama line.  He also appears to hesitate between the tackles is there is not much inviting ahead, stopping his momentum and ending the opportunity for the play.  What you want to see with a man this size is the instant acceleration when he must reroute his run, and in 2014, that disappeared from the amazing 2012 and 2013 Yeldon which had runs that made you think he was a Top 5 pick.  Honestly, after watching him so much over his 3 years at Alabama, I am led to believe that his injuries in 2014 robbed him of his special qualities and made him a shadow of himself (which actually made him the 2nd best RB option at Alabama by the end of the year).

Summary:  I know he is better than this, but right now he doesn't look like he is on the same level as these other backs I have studied.  He looks heavier, plodding, less explosive, and frankly, appears to be running at 80% - especially against Auburn and Ohio State (the games late in the year) and at the Combine.  For me, it will require teams to operate under the premise of what he was in 2013 to take him in the top 60, and believe that once he heels and maybe drops 10 pounds that he goes back to being that special talent we have all known about for so long.  He definitely has attributes that you really like, but I am quite perplexed about the issues that jumped out at me when going through his 200 snaps to see the current version of TJ Yeldon.  Again, I am no doctor, but he spoke quite a bit recently about an ankle and hamstring that zapped him of his explosion, so perhaps the tape is not the best version of him and a team exam would put everyone at ease.  As it stands, I would not be certain at pick #60, which I am sure puts me in the minority.

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.

2015 NFL Draft #9 - Michael Bennett, DT, Ohio State

 I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football.  By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better.  It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.)

Michael Bennett, DT, Ohio State - 6'2, 290 - Senior

Defensive lineman Michael Bennett plays while wearing #53 to honor late teammate Kosta Karageorge of the Ohio State Buckeyes during the Big Ten Championship against the Wisconsin Badgers at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 6, 2014 in Indianapolis, Indiana.

As we continue to dig through the defensive tackles in this draft, we move from the 320+ division down to the sub-300 types.  This group is not to be overlooked or undervalued as many of the great DTs in the league are under 300 pounds and they win with quickness and athleticism in the land of the giants.

Today, it is big Bennett from the Ohio State Buckeyes.  On their way to the National Championship, #53 was in the middle causing chaos and competing at a rather high level where he had 7 sacks and 14 tackles for loss in his senior season.  He was also one of the key leaders on that defense that refused to lose down the stretch against elite opponent after elite opponent.  For Bennett, I watched Wisconsin, Alabama, and Oregon in the final month to study his work.

What I liked:  He can really be that bull in a china shop and affect the pocket and the line of scrimmage consistently by his high level of compete.  He is strong and sudden and seems to be ready to battle all day long for those few plays that can change a game.  He does remind me in many ways of Tyrone Crawford with his versatility and his ability to deal with bigger guys with quickness and outside guys with strength.  He literally was put all up and down the line and you can see in a 4-3 that he would play both tackle spots and the occasional spell at DE - although that is not his forte.  He has a great push/pull move that compliments his swim technique to win right at the snap against guards who are leaning too much and he has real nice quickness inside.   I think he is the type of rotational guy who could really wear out a line for 4-Quarters.

What I did not like:  It wasn't always there from Bennett. He would have spells of quiet play and even watch the play if he was unsuccessful early.  He also spent way too much time on the ground in the games I watched as his quickness sometimes resulted in losing a battle of strength by losing balance and being pancaked.  When that happens he gets off balance and loses leverage and then he is of no use on that play.  He will also spin too much and occasionally has his back to the play as he gets stuck in his transition in the trenches.  I don't think he would be a big sack guy by straight wins, but rather the type to win from coverage or a pocket collapsing into his path.

Summary:  There is a lot to like and he will add quite a bit to a team's defensive line.  The questions are whether you want to pay the price to get him as he might be part of the answer, but not THE answer.  You would need to use him properly and maybe limit his snaps to keep his energy high, but you can see that he would be a real nice fit with a team like the Cowboys who wish to have a 6-8 man rotation at all times.  Under those circumstances, I would really value him.  He may be somewhat redundant to the type of player Crawford is, but having them side by side on a 4-3 nickel rush is exciting.

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.

2015 NFL Draft #4 - Dante Fowler, Florida

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.)

Dante Fowler, DE, Florida - 6'3, 260 - Age 20

Dante Fowler #6 of the Florida Gators celebrates with fans following a victory over the East Carolina Pirates in the Birmingham Bowl at Legion Field on January 3, 2015 in Birmingham, Alabama.

It is important to understand that everything is relative in the NFL Draft.  Some years, there are only 20 1st round players, other years there are 40.  Yet, there are only 32 1st round picks every single year.  Some years, there are top quarterbacks in the draft, other years there are none - yet, someone will get elevated to the #1 QB chosen as he is the best of the choices.  Some years, guys get pushed up because they might be special soon - but are not the finished product now.

I say that to say that Dante Fowler is one of the most talked about edge rushers in this draft - and he has some very interesting and unique talents, yet for me, I don't understand the superlative reviews I have heard around the water cooler from others that put him at the very top of the 1st round.  I would enjoy having him on my team, but I think this is a spot where you can overpay and over invest and while the ceiling is high, I am worried about that floor.  I watched the Florida State, LSU, Alabama, and Kentucky games to get a feel for what he is all about.

What I liked:  There are moments where he looks like he has a rocket strapped on his back as he explodes through the line and into the backfield.  He is exceptional at shooting gaps and causing panic from guards and tackles who are trying to hold him off.  He also has a backside chase down the line of scrimmage on runs away from him that are the best I have seen from the players we have looked at.  He can run with any RB to the edge and you are going to have a real hard time turning the corner on him.  He packs a punch when he wants to get into that backfield and was a clear leader and centerpiece of that Florida defense as he was given the ability to play all over the place: RDE, LDE, Inside LB on 3rd Downs, and was moved to find the appropriate matchup that they were looking for.  He plays very hard and certainly feeds off all of the responsibility he has been given by the coaching staff.

What I did not like:  It did not seem that he was terribly consistent in his performance.  There would be plays where he looked great, and others where he would not play the technique properly and get caught inside on a run to his edge.  He would seem to freelance and leave holes in his spot.  He would also be attacked with direct blocks in the run game and was not holding his spot, even against some Tight Ends, which was quite disappointing. He should have more power, which he may grow into, but for now that is a glaring weakness.  The LSU TE, in particular, had quite an evening knocking Fowler out of the way.  His pass rush is all based on burst as his moves are nothing great.  He insists on a spin move that is very telegraphed and ineffective.  Overall, for this ability and flash, I was hoping for more production relative to those other edge rushers in this mix at the top of the draft.

Summary:  He is an amazing specimen where any coach worth his salt will see the traits that they always covet.  And he won't turn 21 years old until training camp, so he is very raw and young.  With Rod Marinelli as a top developmental coach, I would be fine with handing this project over, but there is a lot of refinement necessary in this player's game which is why I fear he can be over-drafted.  He is what I might call "Sportscenter Great", meaning his Top 10 moments of the year are off the charts.  But, to properly know a player, you can't just look at his best.  You have to look at his ability to show you 60 solid plays in a game, not 2 exceptional and 5 where you don't know what he is trying to accomplish.  Don't get me wrong, I would like to have him, but I don't think he is ready to be a beast in the NFL.  I do, however, expect that he will take over the combine with his physical traits and be a big name this spring.  And, to be fair, by age 23 with the proper coaching?  He might be something very special.

You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.