Showing posts with label NFL 2010. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL 2010. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

NFL Franchise Rankings - Version 10.0

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/02/bob-sturms-nfl-rankings-final.html

Finally, the numbers are all complete and the rankings are in.

The 10th annual NFL Franchise Rankings are ready for your viewing pleasure. We have tabulated the latest figures after the 2010 Playoffs and Super Bowl 45.

Why did we do this?

To recap, a few years ago, a good strong listener asked me to rank the franchises from #32 to #1 based on their accomplishments from Super Bowl I to present.

So I did. I wanted it to be objective, not subjective. I wanted it to be a formula and you would just enter the numbers and it would spit out the rankings with no favoritism or prejudice. We have been doing this since 2001. Since then, it has been imitated a time or two , but I don’t mind. It is pretty obvious idea for any sports nerd to come up with.

Here is how it works. Each Franchise gets 1 point for each season it makes the playoffs. Then, if it reaches the Conference Championship Game it gets a total of 3 points. If it makes the Super Bowl it gets 5, and if it wins the Super Bowl it wins the maximum total of points in a given year of 11. It used to be 10 for the Super Bowl, but I have adjusted it last year because I didn’t like the idea that 2 Super Bowl losses equaled a Super Bowl win. So, Now 11 points for a win and 5 for a loss in the Super Bowl.

I have been asked why no points are given for wins in the Wildcard round, but I decided that would not make sense with the idea that the playoffs have grown over the years and there is no way to equalize a smaller field to a larger one. Also, a Wildcard win is not that big a deal anymore with 6 teams in the playoffs, so unless you reach the Conference Title game, no additional points beyond the 1 for making the post-season.

I also have been asked how come I don’t go by average points per season (since many teams have joined the league since Super Bowl 1. My answer is simple: I don’t want to penalize teams who have been in the league all of the years. If you go by average points per year rather than total points, it is possible that the Baltimore Ravens would have been #1 if they had won the Super Bowl this year. No chance I would believe that premise, given that they didn’t exist prior to 1996. But, if a team has been established since the season of Super Bowl 1 (1966), it is notated.

Just add up the points for all the years, and that is the entire formula. (By the way, if you disagree with the point totals for each accomplishment, you will find that just about any reasonable formula spits out about the same results.

Otherwise, I break ties based on the team with more Super Bowl wins, then Super Bowl losses, then Championship Game wins, then playoff berths, and finally average points per year. There are no ties. I will settle it somehow.

We have added "average pts per year" - so that we may determine results based on years in the league. 24 of the 32 teams have been here the entire span of the 45 years of Super Bowl football, but this metric will help put the other 8 teams: Saints '67, Bengals '68, Seahawks '76, Buccaneers '76, Jaguars '95, Panthers '95, Ravens '96, and Texans '02. Also, the Browns missed 96-98, so they only have 42 seasons to work with.

Here are the Final Rankings through Super Bowl 45 - With the Cowboys barely still on top - thanks to the Steelers losing on Sunday.

Teams #1-#10
=========================================



#1 - Dallas Cowboys (Last Year, #1)

Because of the results of Super Bowl 45, the Cowboys are able to stay on top of the mountain for the 10th consecutive year of these rankings. But, barely. Their once insurmountable lead in these rankings (they had a 19 point lead over San Francisco and a 32 point lead over Pittsburgh in year 1 of these rankings) is now down to 1 single point over the Steelers. Having no appearances in even the Final 4 of the NFL since their win in Super Bowl 30, this team is in desperate need of some post season success. However, they built such a huge lead that they are atop the mountain for another year.

Total Points: 108
Total Playoff Years: 66C, 67C, 68, 69, 70SL, 71S, 72C, 73C, 75SL, 76, 77S, 78SL, 79, 80C, 81C, 82C, 83, 85, 91, 92S, 93S, 94C, 95S, 96, 98, 99, 03, 06, 07, 09

P: 30
4: 8
2: 3
1: 5

Average: 2.4 points per season



#2 - Pittburgh Steelers (#2)

Steelers fans may find this hard to believe, but they still sit #2. Yes, the Steelers have 1 more Lombardi Trophy (6-5), but they trail the Cowboys in Playoff appearances (30-25), Championship Game Losses (8-7), and Super Bowl Losses (3-2). Add those slight edges together and the Steelers, who have put 35 points up in this decade, still need another point to get to #1. Based on their pace of this decade, that should not take long.

Total Points: 107
Total Playoff Years: 72C, 73, 74S, 75S, 76C, 77, 78S, 79S, 82, 83, 84C, 89, 92, 93, 94C, 95SL, 96, 97C, 01C, 02, 04C, 05S, 07, 08S, 10SL

P: 25
4: 7
2: 2
1: 6

Average: 2.37 points per season
















#3 - San Francisco 49ers (#3)

The 49ers franchise has basically taken the decade off but they still sit firmly in 3rd place in the Super Bowl era. They have the distinction of being the only multi-Super Bowl winner to never lose in the big game (5-0). Otherwise, their drought is certainly not what their fan base became accustomed to in the Montana and Young eras.

Total Points: 85
Total Playoff Years: 70C, 71C, 72, 81S, 83C, 84S, 85, 86, 87, 88S, 89S, 90C, 92C, 93C, 94S, 95, 96, 97C, 98, 01, 02

P: 21
4: 7
2: 0
1: 5

Average: 1.88 points per season



#4 - Oakland Raiders (#4)

Oddly, the Bay-area drought also has affected the Raiders. Oakland's dominance was from Super Bowl 1 until the mid-80's, and they actually have nearly the exact same credentials as the 49ers. The only difference between the two franchises is that the 49ers won all of their Super Bowls and the Raiders won 3 of the 5 (losing Super Bowl 2 to Green Bay and Super Bowl 37 to Tampa Bay). Otherwise, shocking mirror images and neither has even made the playoffs since 2002.

Total Points: 77
Total Playoff Years: 67SL, 68C, 69C, 70C, 72, 73C, 74C, 75C, 76S, 77C, 80S, 82, 83S, 84, 85, 90C, 91, 93, 00C, 01, 02SL

P: 21
4: 9
2: 2
1: 3

Average: 1.71 points per season



#5 - Green Bay Packers (#9 last season)

This season's big winner is Green Bay, cruising past New England, Miami, Denver, and Washington in the rankings with their win in Super Bowl 45. The Packers fan-base always question our rankings because they do arbitrarily begin at Super Bowl 1. Had these rankings been for the entire history of the NFL, their 13 NFL Titles would have them ranked significantly higher (as in #1). As it stands, they are now Top 5 in the Super Bowl era, and given their period of famine from Vince Lombardi to Brett Favre, it does show how productive their last 2 decades have been. Because they only had 1 point in the 70's and 1 point in the 80's.

Total Points: 65
Total Playoff Years: 66S, 67S, 72, 82, 93, 94, 95C, 96S, 97SL, 98, 01, 02, 03, 04, 07C, 09, 10S

P: 17
4: 2
2: 1
1: 4

Average: 1.44 points per season
















#6 - New England Patriots (#5)

Speaking of teams that have accumulated most of their points recently, 44 of the Patriots points have come since we started doing these rankings a decade ago. But, what a decade it has been. They dropped back out of the Top 5 this season, but given their pace, they won't be out long. 3 out of 6 in their Super Bowl appearances.

Total Points: 61
Total Playoff Years: 76, 78, 82, 85SL, 86, 94, 96SL, 97, 98, 01S, 03S, 04S, 05, 06C, 07SL, 09, 10

P: 17
4: 1
2: 3
1: 3

Average: 1.35 points per season



#7 - Miami Dolphins (#6)

Another industry leader for the 1970's and on through the Dan Marino era, the Dolphins have had a very quiet decade, and therefore have fallen out of the Top 5 since our rankings have begun. Their last world Title was in 1973 at Super Bowl VIII.

Total Points: 58
Total Playoff Years: 70, 71SL, 72S, 73S, 74, 78, 79, 81, 82SL, 83, 84SL, 85C, 90, 92C, 94, 95, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 08

P: 22
4: 2
2: 3
1: 2

Average: 1.28 points per season



# 8 - Denver Broncos (#7)

It is certainly shocking to consider that the Broncos have missed the playoffs since 2005. Another team with 6 appearances in the Super Bowl and a very solid Top 10 franchise as the group that they run in is very tightly bunched together.

Total Points: 57
Total Playoff Years: 77SL, 78, 79, 83, 84, 86SL, 87SL, 89SL, 91C, 93, 96, 97S, 98S, 00, 03, 04, 05C

P: 17
4: 2
2: 4
1: 2

Average: 1.26 points per season



#9 - Washington Redskins (#8)

The Redskins are an interesting study because they have the fewest playoff appearances of any team in the top 12. Just 16 times have they been in the NFL post season (10 fewer playoff appearances than Minnesota), but they hold the distinction of 3 Super Bowl titles in a decade with 3 different starting QBs.

Total Points: 56
Total Playoff Years: 71, 72SL, 73, 74, 76, 82S, 83SL, 84, 86C, 87S, 90, 91S, 92, 99, 05, 07

P: 16
4: 1
2: 2
1: 3

Average: 1.24 points per season



#10 - Indianapolis/Baltimore Colts (#10)

The final team in our Top 10, the Colts are a team that has plenty of tradition. I would have to imagine that we all saw more World Titles in the Peyton Manning era than we have seen to this point, but he has a few more years to add to his Super Bowl 41 crown.

Total Points: 54
Total Playoff Years: 68SL, 70S, 71C, 75, 76, 77, 87, 95C, 96, 99, 00, 02, 03C, 04, 05, 06S, 07, 08, 09SL, 10

P: 20
4: 3
2: 2
1: 2

Average: 1.2 points per season

The Rest of the Rankings
================================

See Teams 11-20 Here
See Teams 21-32 Here

Monday, February 07, 2011

Super Bowl 45 Notebook

On Monday night, I rewatched the Super Bowl for charting reasons. Since it is the Super Bowl, and since I have a blog, here are my notes for the world to see and only the insane to read.

Super Bowl XLV

Coin Flip with Shannon Sharpe, Marshall Faulk, Deion Sanders, Richard Dent, and Chris Hanburger.

Packers win the toss and defer until the 2nd half. Pittsburgh will receive the opening kick of Super Bowl 45 –

Crosby Kick returned by Antonio Brown to the Pitt 36

Pitt - #1
1/10/36 – 13 – Quick hit to Ward for 4 yards (52)
2/6/40 – 11 bunch right – 21 blitz, Mendenhall run left, Zombo and Raji both win and Zombo makes the stop. – 4
3/10/36 – S01 – good protection, Roethlisberger intended for Brown, but ball is short and not close. – 3 and out for the Steelers – 13:24
Punt – Kapanos – FC – But, Tramon Williams muffs punt after Shields is pushed into Williams by Pitt #23 and the ball is finally recovered by the Packers. Packers very lucky to recover as Tramon gets it.

GB - #1
1/10/21 – S10 empty – quick throw to Jennings as Woodley on fire-zone drop and ball is incomplete.
2/10/21 – S11 protect – Handoff to Starks for 1 yard (56)
3/9/22 – S10 – Free play as Farrior was offside, Rodgers hits Driver downfield for 24 yards and a 1st Down. (37)
1/10/46 – 12 - PA pass incomplete to Nelson on left. Keisel with hit (73)
2/10/46 – 20 – Starks runs up middle for 3
3/7/49 – S10 – Pitt rushes 5, Rodgers deep right to Nelson and it falls incomplete. Perfect throw that should be caught.
Punt – Masthay just barely kicks into endzone – Touchback – 11:05

Pitt - #2
1/10/20 – 12 – Run right with motion at Matthews. Mendenhall gets 16 yards and a 1st Down. Peprah miss. Bishop Tackle.
1/10/35 – 22 - Run right – Mendenhall 9 yards on same play. Hawk.
2/1/44 – 12 – False Start 85 -5
2/6/39 – 11 – Quick throw to Wallace – Tramon quick stop with Hawk.
3/2/43 – 13 – Pass out of short yardage offense to get Heath Miller down seam against Tramon Williams. Throw high and incomplete. Missed chance.
Punt – Kapanos into endzone –Touchback – 8:17

GB - #2
1/10/20 – S11 protect – Rush 7, quick throw down the left sideline to Jennings but the ball is overthrown (24)
2/10/20 – 20 – pass to Nelson (20) +9
3/1/29 – 13 – Starks stopped initially, bounced outside right for 7 yards. Crabtree slams 94 Timmons to ground.
1/10/37 – 11 – slant to Nelson for 9 yards on left (20)
2/1/46 - 21 – Starks up middle for tough 1 FD
Packers Timeout #1 – 5:53
1/10/47 – 11 – Rodgers finds Jackson for nice gain. Bulaga was overrun by Woodley off right flank. Rodgers stepped up. 14 yards
1/10/P38 – 20 – Starks with downhill run right guard. 7 yards.
2/3/31 – 21- Bulaga again beat by Woodley. Rodgers hits Hall for 2.
*3/1/29 – 22 – PA Pass to Nelson (Gay) for a nice catch and Touchdown. 3:44
7-0 on a very nice strike.

GB Kickoff – Brown from endzone, penalty back at 14 (block in back #29)

Pitt - #3
1/10/7 – 12 – Double pump by Roethisberger. Hit by Howard Green beats LG Kemoatue. Underthrown badly intended for Wallace. Nick Collins picks it off and returns for TD. Flozell Adams is hurt. Unsportsmanlike celebration for 15 yards. 3:20

GB Kickoff from 15 – Mewelde Moore returns to 35.

Pitt - #4
1/10/36 – 11 – Mendenhall runs for 4 LG
2/6/40 – 11 – Mendenhall runs RG for 9 yards. First Down. Great success.
1/10/49 – 11 – PA Pass – Quick out to Sanders for 4. Flag – Illegal block in the back by 68 on BJ Raji. -10
1/16/43 – S11 – corner blitz 21 – dump off the Mendenhall for 7 yards.
2/9/50 – 12 – PA Pass, Roethlisbeger slips and throws awful ball to Miller.
3/9/50 – S01 – 24 blitz, Roethlisbeger scrambles up middle and he takes off for big gain of 18 yards and 1st Down.

2Q
1/10/32 – 12 – Mendenhall runs right, Woodson with fabulous ankle tackle.
2/13/35 – S11 – pass to Sanders at 20 is broken up nicely by Tramon Williams.
3/13/35 – S11 – pass to Sanders for first down to the 22. Sanders looks like he is hurt by the tackle from Tramon, but after falling has enough for the 1st Down.
1/10/22 – 22 – Roethlisbeger rolls right and perhaps had a man, but instead holds on to the ball and is tackled by Clay Matthews at the 20 yard line.
2/8/20 – 11 – Run right Mendenhall tries to turn the corner. 52 extends the play until Hawk gets there.
3/7/19 – S11 – Short pass to Wallace and Collins tackles at the 15 – Gain of 4, but the Packers get a stop.
Suisham from 33 yards. Good. 14-3. 11:08 left.

Pittsburgh kickoff –
Suisham to Lee who returns it to the 25.

GB - #3
1/10/25 – S11 – Gay blitzing off corner. Quick out to Jennings fell incomplete. Rodgers recognized quick. – Sanders carted off from earlier hit.
2/10/25 - S01 – inside blitz – quick pass to Jones for 5 on right sideline.
3/5/30 – S00 – 5 WR, quick pass to Driver. Farrior/Harrison tackles Driver and twists the ankle badly and Driver is done.
Punt to 20, return to 21.

Pitt - #5 – 9:28
1/10/22 – 11 – Mendenhall runs right again. +7, but hold on 83 who was grabbing Matthews.
1/20/12 – S11 – Pass to Wallace down left sideline for 16 yards. Collins.
2/4/28 – 12 – Run to Moore who bounces back right and gets to the 35 and first down.
1/10/35 – 12 – PA Pass, Roethlisbeger finds nobody open after long time in pocket, scrambles for 5 (Zombo).
2/5/40 – 11 – Moore runs up middle, nothing doing. Bishop makes tackle.
3/6/39 – S01 – Pass up the middle to Randel El for 13 yards and FD (24) out of bunch formation on the right. 82 picks ball off turf nicely.
1/10/G48 – 12 – Mendenhall run right, Bishop is there. Perhaps Bishop got away with no facemask there.
2/11/G49 – S11 – Pitt Timeout 4:35 #1
*2/11/49 – S01 – Jarrett Bush jumps crossing route to Wallace. Intercepted. Fascinating defense here. It looks like Bush is allowed to play CF and just read the eyes. Heath Miller looks wide open down left sideline as Woodson trails.

GB - #4 – 4:28
1/10/47 – 12 – Quick pass to Jennings on left. 3 yards. Ike Taylor.
2/7/50 – S11 – Polumalu blitz picked up, pass left to Nelson on stop for 17. (20)
1/10/P33 - 21 - Starks right as Hampton chases, turns corner and gets 12 and first down.
*1/10/21 – S11 – Pass to Jennings at the goal-line from the left slot. Touchdown. Polamalu hits him as hard as he can but Jennings holds on. Perfect throw – Ryan Clark just missed it. Nothing coverage was going to do about that. 21-3.

Green Bay Kickoff – Swain tackles Brown at 23 yard line.

Pitt - #6 – 2:18
1/10/23 – S11 – Pass to Randel El +37. Shields jumped route, but Roethlisbeger threw the high ball properly and it goes for a big gain. Throw a normal ball and it could be a pick 6. 2:00. Now Shields leaves hurt.
1/10/G40 – S01 – Incomplete deep shot to Wallace. Woodson on coverage is injured and will not play again. Matthews plays that snap in center spy position.
2/10/40 – S11 protect – blitz 5, Hawk deflects pass in air and incomplete. Intended for Ward.
3/10/40 – S11 – blitzing 6, and Roethlisberger threads needle to Ward for 14 yards and a big first down. Raji hits Ben. First Down. Woodson to locker-room.
1/10/26 – S01 – pass to Antonio Brown for 1 yard. Hawk and Collins are there.
2/9/25 – S11 – pass over middle to Hines Ward on dig route down to 8. Nicely threaded pass over the linebackers.
1/G/8 - S11 – pass to Ward in corner of endzone. Raji beat LG bady 68, but Ward had triple move on Bush. Touchdown. 21-10 :39

Pittsburgh kickoff touchback
GB - #5 - :39
1/10/20 – 21 – Run Starks up the gut for 4 yards. Halftime. 21-10.

3Q –

Pittsburgh kickoff touchback to Nelson – Woodson is out. Shields and Driver could return. Sanders is out for Pittsburgh.

GB - #6 – 15:00
1/10/20 - 12 - Starks quick hit right – Penalty Hold 86 – on Woodley
1/20/10 – S10 – Quick right to Jones +10
2/10/20 – S11 – Penalty – False Start 85 Jennings
2/15/15 – S10 – Quick left to Nelson +9 (24)
3/6/24 – S10 – Big pass to James Jones on right who is working on Gay, and Jones put the ball on the money and Jones dropped. Touchdown if caught.
4/6 – PUNT – Masthay to Brown at 33, and returned to 35. Penalty on Crabtree for facemask on the tackle - 12:39

Pitt - #7 – 12:39
1/10/50 – 22 – Run right by Mendenhall. Did Mendenhall tweak his groin. Runs by Matthews again who is tied up on Spaith. 17 yards
1/10/G33 – 12 – Redman middle for 2 to 31.
2/7/30 - 11 – PA Pass, Bush blitzes off slot. Roethlisbeger runs for 6, Peprah chases him out of bounds.
3/1/24 – 22 – Run left, Redman outruns Collins to the end after Zombo gets collapsed inside. Big gain to the edge and 16 yard run. FD
1/G/8 – 12 – Run RG, Mendenhall right through middle for TD. 50 yard TD drive with no pass plays. Wow. 21-17. 10:19

Pittsburgh Kickoff – Jordy returns from ez to 18
GB - #7 – 10:13
1/10/18 – 20 – Run Starks LG for 3.
2/7/21 – S01 – blitz off corner with Gay from right slot. Pass quick to Nelson is dropped at 33.
3/7/21 – S11 protect – 3 man rush, Harrison sacks Rodgers off Wells block as Woodley flushes him up (Bulaga).
3 and out Punt – fielded at Pitt 40.

Pitt - #8 – 9:00
1/10/40 – 13 – Mendenhall runs RG. +1
2/9/41 – 11 – empty. Quick out to Wallace. Runs for 7 before AJ Hawk brings him down.
3/2/48 – 11 – Pittsburgh Timeout #1 – 7:34
3/2/48 – 11 – Run to Moore, bounces it outside to the right again. Nice gain. FD
1/10/G44 – 13 – PA Pass deep to Wallace over the top on Peprah. Incomplete on poor throw. Just missed on a touchdown pass.
2/10/44 – S01 – empty backfield and a pump fake pass freezes everyone with a pass to Ward cutting across for 15 yards and 1st Down.
1/10/29 – 12 – PA Pass waggle back to right, Clay Matthews bats the ball in the air and nearly has a shot at an interception.
2/10/29 – 11 bunch right – Matthews spy, dump off to Miller, Bishop is there for loss on the play of 3.
3/13/32 – S01 – coverage sack as Matthews spy is there. Zombo cleans up with sack. -3
52 yard FG attempt by Suisham is not even close. Way wide left. 4:29

GB - #8 – 4:29
1/10/42 – 12 – PA Pass waggle right, bullet to Nelson on dig for easy 18 yarder as deep shot cleared coverage. +18 on McFadden.
1/10/P40 – 10 – Run right for Starks is a mess -3. Timmons is there.
2/13/43 – S11 – blitz 5, hot read to Quarless +5
3/8/38 – Pittsburgh Timeout #2 – 2:34
3/8/38 – S10 – Pass thrown quickly over middle to Swain covered by 37 and 43 is there for big hit. Again, nothing really there.
Punt Masthay FC at 13 instead of 56 yard FG attempt

Pitt - #9 – 2:23
1/10/13 – 11 bunch – run right as Mendenhall gets about 4, Hawk and Bush
2/6/17 – 11 – quick pass to Wallace – Bishop good hit. +4
3/2/21 – S11 – pass to left sideline and Wallace, but the pass is high and Tramon is there. 3 and out punt.
PUNT Kaponos – ball rolls all the way down and then Tramon takes very silly penalty as he slaps Madison-37 in the head. -15 more. Huge field position play.

GB - #9 - :47
1/10/13 – 22 – PA Pass behind Quarless. Rush 5
2/10/13 – S11 protect – Rodgers is flushed and throws the ball out of bounds while trying to avoid intentional grounding.
3/10/13 – S10 – Rush 4, bullet to Swain, but the ball was never caught. At first it sure looked like catch and fumble. Ball recovered by Jennings. But, the ball was ruled incomplete. Packers challenge and lose. :31
3 and out punt. Punt – huge punt by Masthay and returned to 42. But, penalty for ineligible downfield on 53 Briggs. Re-punt from 8 yard line.
Repunt – high hanging punt lands at Green Bay 41.

Pitt - #10 - :11
1/10/41 – 21 – Run right and Mendenhall again picks up 8 as they continue to pick on the right flank.

4Q –
*2/2/33 – 22 - run right but Matthews sets the edge and with Pickett cause major fumble and Mendenhall coughs up to Bishop. What a huge play on the Steelers 3rd Giveaway. Kevin Greene audio captures him telling Clay that “it is time” right before that play.

GB - #10 – 14:53
1/10/45 – 21 – Rodgers deep shot to Jennings out of bounds. Pressure eventually got to Rodgers and he was hit by Keisel
2/10/45 – 20 – LB Blitz up middle, quick out to Nelson, tackled by Polamalu +3
3/7/48 – S10 – rush 5, Jones down right sideline keeps ball up and FD +12.
1/10/P40 – S11 – dump off to Jackson is low and incomplete
2/10/40 – S10 – rush 5, Nelson drops a crossing pass that should be caught again.
3/10/40 – S10 – Double corner blitz from the right. Rodgers reads and hits it Nelson on hot route (Clark) for huge gain at huge juncture of the game. +28
1/G/2 – 32 inverted wishbone – Nowhere to go with the ball – sacked -6
2/G/8 – S01 – Jennings from slot runs a route to the pylon and loses Polamalu and it is easy pitch and catch for a TD. 28-17 – 11:17

GB kickoff to Brown who returns the ball to the 33.

Pitt - #11 – 11:51
1/10/34 – 12 – quick throw to Spaith for 9 off snap
2/1/43 – 12 – Crossing pattern for Wallace which gets 11 yards and a FD
1/10/G46 – S01 empty – blitz with Jarrett Bush gets there and hits Ben. Incomplete pass to the left side and Brown.
2/10/46 – 11 – Quick out pass to Wallace, and he works his way down the sideline for 14 yards and another FD
1/10/32 – 11 – PA Pass to Miller – PENALTY as Flozell holds on to Clay Matthews.
1/20/42 – S12 – Quick out pass to Wallace for 2 yards. Bishop is there.
2/18/40 – S11 – Pass over the middle to Ward down to the 25
3/3/25 – S10 - Rush 5, Roethlisberger finds Wallace in man to man down left sideline for a Touchdown as Shields is beaten and the safety doesn’t have time to get there. A very fine route and easy TD. 28-23 7:34
2Pt Conversion – Option pitch to Randel El for a walk in. 28-25.
Pittsburgh Kickoff is returned by Lee to 25

GB - #11 – 7:29
1/10/25 – 11 – rush 6 - Sack by Timmons, Hood, and Woodley. Starks didn’t pick up his guy very well.
2/14/21 – S01 empty – rush 5 – complete to Nelson +9 – 16th hit on Rodgers
3/5/30 – S10 – Penalty - False Start Colledge
*3/10/25 – S10 – rush 3 – huge throw and catch to Jennings for 31 yards down the seam. On Taylor in trail position and in front of the hit from Polamalu. Amazingly important play.
1/10/P44 – 21 – Starks to the right for 14 yards and FD
1/10/30 – 30 inverted wishbone – Starks LG for yard.
2/9/29 – 20 – Back shoulder fade route to James Jones on right sideline. On Gay again and a very easy 21 yards.
1/G/8 – 11 – Pass to Crabtree +1 3:35
2/G/7 – S10 – quick out to Jones +2
3/G/5 – S00 – pass to the corner looking for Nelson into the corner. Hit his hands and Madison is on the cover.
4/G/5 – FG Attempt from 23 yards is good. 31-25 – 2:07

Green Bay Kickoff – Redman returns to the 26 – Penalty – Unnecessary roughness on 57 Keyaron Fox is horrendous.

Pitt - #12 – 2:00
1/10/13 – S01 – Ben finds Heath Miller across the middle for 15 yards
1/10/28 – S11 – complete to Ward for 5 yards
2/5/33 – S11 – rush 5 – Ben throws it away as Hawk closes in. Incomplete and Wallace had no idea what the play call was
3/5/33 – S11 – rush 4, spy Hawk – Ben overthrows Wallace on other side of the field. :56
*4/5/33 – S11 – rush 4 incomplete pass to Wallace and Tramon Williams is there again to break up the pass. Game over. Contact was close and incidental.

GB - #12 – 0:49
1/10/42 – knee
2/10/41 – knee

Game is over. Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 25

The Morning After: Super Bowl XLV

http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/super-bowl/the-game/20110207-sturm-in-super-bowl-xlv-score-dictated-a-lot-of-strategy.ece

Photo Courtesy - Terry Porter


The 2010 season has been put to bed with a very entertaining game that came down to two historic franchises and a 2-minute drill with a 6 point margin and the Lombardi Trophy hanging in the balance.

In the end, the Green Bay Packers' defense - which was the wildcard in this entire season on a squad that often made offense look easy - that had to get the stop to preserve a game they led from wire to wire. In fact, the story of the 2010 Green Bay Packers had two consistent threads from the game itself yesterday.

1) - The team never trailed at any point of any game during the entire season by more than 7 points. In the last 48 years, that has never happened. It certainly an odd statistic, but, it certainly demonstrates the overall strength of the team in some way. On the other hand, they did lose 6 games, so it would seem it does not tell the entire story.

2) - The team had to overcome one of the more injury-filled seasons of any Super Bowl Champion ever. They put 15 players on injured reserve this season, including 9 starters. And then, during the game yesterday, they had two pillars of their team hurt in the 1st half. Charles Woodson and Donald Driver both left the game in the 2nd Quarter - never to return. Losing Woodson, who is the tip of the spear of Dom Capers' defense, caused the Packers defense to bend quite a bit in the 2nd half. But, because of the ability to get a timely takeaway on the first play of the 4th Quarter, the Packers were able to survive.

Meanwhile, the Steelers will live with a great deal of regret as they must delay their pursuit of Super Bowl Championship #7. Their proven QB, Ben Roethlisberger, missed quite a few throws that we are accustomed to seeing him make. Surely a player who does not require a lot of excuses given his fabulous post-season record, on this day, he was certainly the 2nd best QB on the field.

The two things that you cannot overcome in a Super Bowl both bit Pittsburgh last night. You cannot usually win if your QB is substantially outplayed and you cannot win a game when you are a "minus 3" in the turnover margin.

And yet, there they were despite both of those items. The Steelers had the ball down 6 with 2 minutes to go in the game. Anyone who can remember Super Bowl 43 had to have an extremely strong reference point for what the Steelers were capable of in this situation. If they could simply duplicate that amazing feat, they would have won their 3rd Super Bowl out of 6.

But, like we had seen earlier in the game, it did seem like the Steelers passing game was largely uneven. Big Ben was not on the same page with Mike Wallace for much of the evening, and for the first time during their playoff run, you questioned the trade of Santonio Holmes. Hines Ward had a nice game and Wallace did catch 9 passes and 89 yards, but it took 16 passes to do so.

Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, completed a 4-game stretch for the ages, during his post season run. In 4 games, all away from Lambeau Field, Rodgers threw 9 TDs against 2 INTs, a playoff QB rating of 109.8, 1094 yards, and a Super Bowl MVP. The story of his transition from Cal Bear to Favre backup to Super Bowl MVP is well documented and phenomenal. But, the way he is the focal point of the Green Bay offense (Green Bay only attempted 11 run plays the entire game, and the 13 rushing attempts was a Super Bowl record) makes his performance all the more amazing. And if you like statistics that could win bar bets, please know that Bart Starr was 27 when he won his 1st NFL Title in the 1961 season, Brett Favre won his only Super Bowl at the age of 27 in Super Bowl 31, and Aaron Rodgers is 27 as he grabbed Lombardi's Trophy.

Other notes that are on my mind from the Super Bowl:

* It is surely a game of inches as both teams had close calls that would have either turned the game into a Steelers victory or a Green Bay blowout. The number of drops on the Packers receivers was quite shocking. Both James Jones and Jordy Nelson had drops that likely would have had 7 points at the end of the play had they caught the ball. Meanwhile, Tramon Williams casual punt fumble in the 1st Quarter might have really helped the Steelers off to a fast start. And, of course, if it were not for Clay Matthews and Ryan Pickett's ability to cause Rashard Mendenhall to cough up the 1st play of the 4th Quarter, there is no telling how the game's story would have been written. At the time of that fumble, the Steelers seemed to have 100% of momentum on their side. But, that play, on a 2nd and 2 at the Green Bay 33 with the Packers up 21-17, swung the entire game back to Green Bay as Rodgers quickly made the Steelers pay for their generosity and drove the team 55 yards on 8 plays to move the lead back to 28-17.

* I felt that the score dictated a lot of strategy yesterday, including a point of emphasis for the Steelers which appeared to pound the ball right at Clay Matthews. Matthews is a very elite talent who can rush the passer with great success, but there are times where he does not seem able to set and hold the edge on running plays right at his side. He was collapsed on numerous occasions by Steelers blocking, but the score did not allow the Steelers the patience or time to continue to go back to that well. Down 18 did not fully allow them to run at Matthews. There is no doubt if the score would have been different, Mendenhall and the Steelers seemed to really have the ability to challenge the ability of the Packers to stuff them.

* Jarrett Bush is the 4th DB for the Packers and Patrick Lee is the 5th. But, because of the injuries to Charles Woodson and Sam Shields, they both saw significant snaps in the biggest game of their careers. Bush has been incredibly maligned for his less than stellar play in the Packers' secondary. But, when Woodson went out with a broken collarbone, Dom Capers asked Bush to do a lot of the blitzing that Woodson usually would do. Given all the conversation we have about the Cowboys not having the personnel to carry out the techniques of Dom Capers and Dick LeBeau's playbooks, I give you Jarrett Bush as an example that everyone has the personnel to figure out aggressive defense. And full marks to Bush for having the guts to jump a route in the 2nd Quarter that he actually was able to intercept. His biggest moment of redemption has no doubt softened the Packers fan's views on his work.

* Very amazing to see that both offensive lines seemed to have their hands full yesterday. Could the Steelers hold off the interior push of the Packers with their backup center? Could the Packers tackles figure out how to protect Rodgers from Lamarr Woodley and James Harrison? No and No. And yet, we saw 56 points scored. Dominating defenses have a very hard time containing top QBs. It just shows you that we have to recalibrate success for a defense in this era. It is no longer stringing together shutout after shutout like the '85 Bears. Instead, it is getting a few takeaways and a key 4th Quarter stop. Rule changes and the evolution of the passing game have changed the sport. Last night, we saw receivers who were well covered and yet the ball was placed right on the hands from 30 yards away. Impossible to defend.

* You never want your kicker to find the "coffin corner". Former Cowboy Shaun Suisham almost did.

* For all of the penalties yesterday, I thought the refs did a nice job of "letting them play" in the secondary. I hate to see the touch fouls on a pass where both players are going for the ball. The Steelers 4th Down to end the game was one of those marginal contact scenarios where you almost expected a flag. But after reviewing the play a bit, it seemed the proper no-call was made. Meanwhile, both teams took very unwise special teams personal fouls that did not help the cause at all.

* I had never attended a Super Bowl before yesterday. What struck me is the electricity and the amazing amount of things going on around the game. The focus on these players is off the charts to be able to perform with the largest TV audience in our nation's history looking on. It makes you appreciate the Cowboys dynasty and how Troy Aikman always seemed to save his best days for the post-season. It takes truly remarkable performers to step up when the spotlight it the hottest, and the job Aaron Rodgers did was certainly historic and unforgettable.

Now, we don't know when we see NFL football again. The looming labor situation is not something anyone wants to focus on, but at least we had a memorable final game to remember for a while as the billionaires and millionaires sort out the money.

Hurry back, NFL. 2011 Opening Day is scheduled for 213 days from today.

Monday, January 24, 2011

Final Playoff Seeding Numbers

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/01/sturm-is-home-field-advantage.html

- Home Field Advantage -

This table simply tracks the success or lack thereof of higher seeds and home teams in the NFL Playoffs. The AFC and NFC Seeds columns show which teams advanced to the AFC and NFC Championship Games. Then the "*" shows who made the Super Bowl from each conference.

Lots of trends in here, including the #1 seed in the NFC has advanced to the Championship game in 18 of 21 years since the playoffs expanded. The only 3 teams not to get there were the 2007 Dallas Cowboys, the 2008 New York Giants, and the 2010 Atlanta Falcons.

Also, the 2010 playoffs have had home teams win just 4 of the 10 games. So much for home field advantage, right? 4-6 is tied for the worst record for home field of this era, with the 2005 year. And of course 2005 and 2010 have something else in common; the only 2 times a 6-seed has been able to win 3 consecutive road games to get to the Super Bowl. The 2005 Steelers did it (and then also won the Super Bowl) and now the 2010 Green Bay Packers.

YearHome RecordAFC SeedsNFC Seeds
19908-21* vs 21 vs 2*
19918-21* vs 21* vs 2
19925-52 vs 4*1 vs 2*
19938-21* vs 31* vs 2
19948-21 vs 2*1* vs 2
19957-32* vs 51* vs 3
19968-22* vs 51* vs 2
19976-42 vs 4*1 vs 2*
19988-21* vs 21 vs 2*
19997-31 vs 4*1* vs 2
20008-22 vs 4*1* vs 2
20017-31 vs 2*1* vs 3
20028-21* vs 21 vs 2*
20036-41* vs 31 vs 3*
20046-41 vs 2*1* vs 2
20054-62 vs 6*1* vs 5
20068-23* vs 41* vs 2
20075-51* vs 32 vs 5*
20085-52* vs 64* vs 6
20097-31* vs 51* vs 2
20104-62* vs 62 vs 6*

Table Tutorial


(* = Super Bowl Team)

Most compelling piece of information I found here? 14 of 21 years (67%), in the NFC, the championship game has been the #1 seed vs the #2 seed - proving the bye week and home field mean something.

The NFC had only 2 home teams win playoff games. The Seahawks, at 7-9, took down the defending Super Bowl Champions Saints and the Bears beat that same 8-9 Seahawks team.

In the AFC, 1 vs 2 it has happened only 7 times (33%). Not sure what that means other than the fact that maybe the NFC has had better top seeds that make it less likely to have upsets - like the Cowboys and 49ers. On the other hand, maybe the AFC has had many playoffs where top to bottom the margin is very close. No clue, but this year, the home teams in the AFC were 2-3, with the Steelers being the only home team to win a home game - and they did it twice.

So, the AFC sends its #2 seed to Arlington to play the NFC #6. Given the superior track record of the AFC in inter-conference play, that should mean that everyone is on Pittsburgh, right? Well, Green Bay has opened as a 2.5 point favorite.

Monday, January 17, 2011

Brady vs Aikman

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/01/bob-sturm-tom-brady-like-troy.html

The football world was shocked yesterday when the consensus favorite to win Super Bowl XLV, New England, fell out of the playoffs. The Dynasty in New England must now wait another season to try to grab their 4th Super Bowl title.

I must tell you that I very much anticipated that they would be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl in Dallas, and now everyone is reconfiguring their brackets with both #1 seeds no longer in the tournament.

In the NFL, we are pretty quick to attach meaning to "wins" for a QB. Despite football being the ultimate team game, it would seem that no player has close to the influence of the QB and therefore it is always interesting to see how a QB fares. In fact, Tom Brady received large amounts of recognition and notoriety for being the only QB ever to start 10-0 in the playoffs. An amazing feat that demonstrated Brady understood how to do things in January that others just don't.

But, if that is true, how do we then reconcile this: In his last 9 playoff starts, Brady is 4-5, including now 3 straight losses to Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez.

It obviously does not suggest that Tom Brady is no longer elite. Nor does it suggest that Flacco and Sanchez are better QBs. I think it simply offers conclusions that say 3 things: 1) There is more to football than merely QB. 2) In football there are no best-of-7 series - just 1 game and anything often happens. And 3) Enjoy things while you can, because the worm can turn at any moment and end a dynasty.

Let me elaborate on #3, by discussing a topic that many of you are quite familiar with.

One flaw many of us have when we follow our favorite team is that it is difficult to live in the moment when things start going right. Win a playoff game and you start thinking Super Bowl. Win a Super Bowl, and you can't wait to think repeat. Win again, and all you want is a dynasty. Living in the moment and just enjoying the accomplishment is too much to handle. You want historical immortality. You want to be the greatest ever.

So, when Tom Brady wins a Super Bowl at age 24, 26, and 27, you assume there is no reason he cannot get to 5 or 7 before he is done, right?

Here is a small piece of trivia you may not know: Tom Brady is going through a "ringless drought" right now that is longer than Troy Aikman did from his last Super Bowl (Super Bowl 30) until he retired.

Of course, during that "drought", Tom led the Patriots to a 73-23 regular season record (including a 16-0 2007), 1 Super Bowl, and the playoffs in 5 of those 6 years.

But, like Aikman, the quest for a 4th ring and a place next to Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana in the "4-Ring Club" has been much more difficult than the first 3.

The '01-'04 Patriots and the '92-'95 Cowboys do obviously share many similarities. They are the only two teams during the Super Bowl era to win 3 Super Bowls in 4 years. They did it with an ensemble team that was 45-strong, not led by 1 particluar player who just carried them. And, they did it with a QB who seemed young enough that this dynasty could go on for quite a while.

But, just as you are figuring out where to put a 4th Lombardi Trophy, it stops.



YearAikman AgeRecord, Result
19922613-3, SB Win
19932712-4, SB Win
19942812-4, Lost NFCC
19952912-4, SB Win

HTML Tables



So, with Aikman only 29, Emmitt Smith is 26, Michael Irvin 29, and many others on the team seemingly young and in their primes (Larry Allen 24, Erik Williams 27, Russell Maryland 26, Leon Lett 27, Deion Sanders 28, Darren Woodson 26) it seemed the Cowboys could go on to win at least a few more.

Aikman, unlike Brady, did not experience any 16-0 seasons after the 3rd ring. The Cowboys tried to recapture their stride, but never again resembled the team that they once were. He ended his career with a playoff record of 11-4, after starting 11-1. His final 3 playoff starts were losses to Kerry Collins, Jake Plummer, and Jeff George.

But, 4 years and 10 months later, Aikman was concussed by Lavar Arrington and his career was over. As amazing as his career was, he was unable to get his 4th ring.


YearBrady AgeRecord, Result
20012411-5, SB Win
2002259-7, miss playoffs
20032614-2, SB Win
20042714-2, SB Win

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As of today, Brady has now gone 6 years since his last ring. If he does win another, he will have gone the longest of any QB between Super Bowl rings. Roger Staubach holds that distinction with a gap of 6 years between his wins in Super Bowl 6 and Super Bowl 12 (although Kurt Warner almost eclipsed that mark 2 seasons ago when he was a Santonio Holmes Catch from another ring after a 9 year gap).

Tom Brady will be 34 when the season starts in the fall. Anyone who has watched him play this season knows that he is still quite capable of another run, but for now, his career arch reminds me that as fans of any "super power" in sports, you should enjoy those championships as much as you can while you can. Because there is no promise that those magical moments will ever happen again.

Back to the drawing board for Brady and his Patriots.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Tweets from Divisional Round - Saturday

============================GB vs ATL========================

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
RT @joetxrealtor soooooo...who do you want Bob, Seattle or Chicago?>> @tc1310 knows. And he is pulling his covers over his eyes.
2 minutes ago Favorite Reply Delete

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Dang it. I had Atlanta +26.
6 minutes ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
GB has played 44 playoff games ever. They have scored team record 45 points twice. Both times, Aaron Rodgers was QB (in 3 starts).
17 minutes ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@ArmandoRivera I can't help you there.
26 minutes ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
The good news is that we might be able to go a few days without having Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco anointed again.
28 minutes ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Mason Crosby, ladies and gentlemen!
36 minutes ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@bjowens44 no pass given. But 3 years of ripping him might deserve a little balance from me
37 minutes ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@mwtrizzle mr happy checks in again.
38 minutes ago

matchst1ck Bradley Windle
by bobanddan@
@bobanddan I'm curious what a 2005 re-draft would look like. I'm guessing Alex Smith doesn't go first.
51 minutes ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@joetxrealtor yes. The 15 winning seasons out of 16? Yes.
53 minutes ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Dear Ted Thompson - You may know more about QBs than I do. Sorry about that. As you were. Love, Bob
55 minutes ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@joetxrealtor easy, sport. Takes 16 years to build that castle. Can't tear it down in 2 weeks.
58 minutes ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Last GB road playoff win: 5 days ago. Last GB road playoff win before that: 1998.
1 hour ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@TheAdam9 indeed. let's see what happens.
1 hour ago

matchst1ck Bradley Windle
by bobanddan@
@bobanddan What... you don't think Matty Ice has a hard time playing in the shadow of Bobby Hebert, Jeff George and Chris Miller?
1 hour ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
It is absolutely remarkable that this guy followed that guy and is already doing this.
1 hour ago

jcalbert Jeff Albert
by bobanddan@
@bobanddan Don't you think that if you had to work with Joe Buck you would punch him in the mouth within a day or two?
1 hour ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Long way to go here...
1 hour ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@TC1310 yes we will. Coming for you....
1 hour ago

adbrandt Andrew Brandt
by bobanddan
Franchise-defining decisions: defensive players we wanted were gone, Aaron highest player left on the board. No trade offers, took him.
1 hour ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
FIGJAM
1 hour ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@TC1310 I would worry about LT, LG, C, RG, and RT if I was you.
1 hour ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Anytime you can get a corner like Tramon Williams as an undrafted FA, you are pretty pleased.
2 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Quite the defensive struggle we have here.
2 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@benandskin not saying it won't happen, but are the Eagles really going to switch to the 3-4?
2 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
It is kinda funny that the Owens wears #21. Rodgers is looking for him every play.
2 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@privateeye13 yes. Wade 35 NFL seasons, though. Aaron 3.
2 hours ago

Kenny_Mayne Kenny Mayne
by bobanddan
What a subtle contrast in return games.
2 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Lots of small numbers on Kick cover. Then, all of your tiny cover guys run around the blockers instead of breaking the convoy.
2 hours ago

FO_BBarnwell Bill Barnwell
by bobanddan
"The game could very well turn on special teams, where Atlanta ranks second and Green Bay is a lowly 27th."
2 hours ago

Americanhearts Doug Sutherland
by bobanddan
@bobanddan Hey Bob I know tonight is a slow TV night, it's a Good thing there's a House marathon going on right now on Bravo.
3 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@josh_jones1 been here for 13 football seasons. I know the score.
3 hours ago

ericspray Eric Spray
by bobanddan@
@bobanddan what are you up to tonight? Wanna do karate in the garage?
3 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Let's all do the right thing and pull for an outdoor NFC Championship game, yes?
3 hours ago

============================Pitt vs Balt================

jasonjackson78 Jason Jackson
by bobanddan@
@bobanddan I think they have to go for it here.
3 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@Kris_S1979 yes sir.
3 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Now we check Flacco's stones.
3 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
68 has been asking for that call all day. What a run by Mendenhall.
3 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
I think you have to let them in.
3 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Stars game starts for me much later. Taking night off for playoff football. Dan and Bruce Levine got you covered.
3 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Never want to give up 58 on 3rd and 19. Dagger.
3 hours ago

bradc2755 Brad C
by bobanddan
I'm rooting for new overtime rules chaos.
3 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@JDtheDJ2004 Clev 1079, Phil 1060
3 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
weak call on that hold!
3 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@JDtheDJ2004 who do you need?
3 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@MikeSirois sigh
4 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@JDtheDJ2004 average? about 65 per game in NFL
4 hours ago

WayneSmith1 Wayne Smith
by bobanddan
@bobanddan Norm had the under.
4 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
RT @radjosh2 overrated stat? Not those QB fault their teams got home field>> Everyone on list had 4 road starts, except Young (0-3).
4 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@shiveringjimmy I honestly don't care for Flacco (or Delhomme). But, to think that he already has more road wins than ANYONE ever?
4 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@ender3 everyone on that list had at least 4 road games, except Young who was 0-3.
4 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@shiveringjimmy they don't ask how? they ask how many?
4 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Marino 1 road win, Young 0, Aikman 1, Payton 2, Montana 2, Favre 3, Brady 3, Elway 3, McNabb 3, Roeth 3.
4 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Flacco's 4 Road Wins in the playoffs ties Staubach, Len Dawson, and Jake Delhomme!
4 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Joe Flacco has made 7 NFL playoff starts, all on the road. With a win today, he becomes all time leader in road playoff wins w/ 5.
4 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
What a bad idea on 1st and 10.
4 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Flozell tapped out.
4 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@benandskin Ray Rice, JC, Mendenhall, CJ, Forte... 2008 is best not talked about.
4 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
“@BrTadlock: Would you trade D. Ware for Suggs straight up?” >> NO! But, would not draft Newman before Suggs in '03. Suggs AND Ware!
4 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Flo is out? Got the hook or did I miss an injury?
4 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
@R_L_G how is he in 2015?
5 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
@
RT @ihavetweets how about signing fa Nnamdi Asomugha?>> 30 year old CBs are dangerous at that $. Balt/Pitt win w/o elite CB play. S, DL
5 hours ago

CowboysNation1 Rafael Vela
by bobanddan
In Rob Ryan, Jason Garrett Finds a Coordinator as Fast as He Is: http://tinyurl.com/653gvkf #cowboys, #robryan
21 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Terrell Suggs scares me.
5 hours ago

newbury1310 David Newbury
by bobanddan@
@bobanddan interesting stat about Clev def.Last year they were 9th in points per play. D was always on the field & never had a lead
5 hours ago

FO_BBarnwell Bill Barnwell
by bobanddan
Troy Polamalu had six missed tackles this year. Two already today.
5 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Now if you want example of dumping the wrong OL guy, Minn and Matt Birk. Still dominating for Balt at C.
5 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
“@mrshllsprtsmchn: top FA safety on your wish list?” Q Mikell, M Huff, E Weddle, and D Landry. Deep safety group.
5 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Suggs vs Flozell. Amazingly timed to make my point, eh?
5 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
“@hince57: flozell is meh in the playoffs. don't totally discount it bob” >> they would be there with Colombo. Pitt won SB with horrid OL.
6 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Haloti Ngata: the one FA who could change everything on the Dallas defense. Just don't see any way the Ravens let him go.
6 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
“@mightymike1000: Another stellar release by the Cowboys: Flozell...doesn't look as bad..>> I have no issue there. He is meh & at $9m??
6 hours ago Favorite Reply Delete

bobanddan Bob Sturm
Best technological advance of this decade nobody talks about: the weight of TVs.
6 hours ago

bobanddan Bob Sturm
OK. Places everyone. Get it on!
6 hours ago

Friday, January 07, 2011

Picking the Playoffs

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/01/bob-sturm-if-you-dont-like-you.html

Who doesn't enjoy predicting the playoff teams at the start of each NFL season, right?

At the start of the 2010 season, I picked the following 12 teams: NFC - Atlanta, New Orleans, Green Bay, Dallas, San Francisco, and Minnesota. AFC - Baltimore, Indianapolis, New England, San Diego, Houston, and Cincinnati.

50%. That didn't go so well, but since we believe in accountability around here, I want to attempt to do so. And yet, it is rather predictable that the field will be unpredictable.

But, nobody should be worried about one person's personal picks. More important is knowing how the league picks its 12 playoff teams.

I assume you know about the turnover in the league. If not, check out the number of new teams each year since the format change to show that the NFL has no problems with parity. In fact, this year, with only 5 new teams from last year's playoff, is actually an extremely stable by historical comparison.

Don't tell that to Minnesota (#2 seed, 2009), Dallas (#3), and Arizona (#4) in the NFC, or the Bengals (#3) or San Diego (#2) from the AFC who have not been invited back.

The 5 new teams: Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Seattle, Chicago, and Atlanta.

In the chart below, I will show you each year, and list the new teams who made the playoffs that year, but weren't in the playoffs the year before. The teams in the 1991 playoffs (the 1st year - so they were all new) were Dal, Atl, NO, Chi, Wash, and Det in the NFC; KC, Oak, Hou, NYJ, Den, and Buf in the AFC:

Year# NewNew Teams making Playoffs
19926Min, SF, Phi, Mia, Pit, KC
19935Det, GB, NYG, Oak, Den
19945Chi, Mia, Clev, NE, SD
19954Phi, Atl, Ind, Buf
19965Min, Car, Jac, Den, NE
19975NYG, Det, TB, KC, Mia
19985Arz, Dal, Atl, NYJ, Buf
19997Det, TB, StL, Was, Sea, Ten, Ind
20006Phi, NYG, NO, Den, Bal, Oak
20016SF, GB, Chi, Pit, NE, NYJ
20025NYG, Atl, Ten, Cle, Ind
20038Stl, Car, Dal, Sea, NE, KC, Bal, Den
20045Min, Atl, SD, Pit, NYJ
20057Was, Car, TB, NYG, Chi, Cin, Jac
20067Phi. Dal, NO, SD, Bal, NYJ, KC
20076Was, TB, GB, Pit, Ten, Jac
20087Phi, Atl, Car, Min, Arz, Mia, Bal
20096Dal, GB, NO, Cin, NE, NYJ
20105Sea, Atl, Chi, Pitt, KC

Table Tutorial