NFL Franchise Rankings, Version 12.0

The 12th annual Sturm NFL Franchise Rankings are ready for your viewing pleasure. I have tabulated the latest figures after the 2012 Playoffs and Super Bowl 47.  As we close the book on another NFL season, we do it the way we have been doing it since 2001.

It is fun for killing time at work, at dinner, or in the dorm rooms.

Who exactly can claim to be the best franchise in the modern era?  Is it the Cowboys?  The Steelers?  Or the 49ers?  And who is really better if a Seahawks fan and Falcons fan square off?  How about a Jets fan and a Browns fan?  And who should be more outraged at their franchises incompetence over the last 47 years, the Cardinals or the Lions?

How did this project ever begin?

To recap, twelve years ago, a good listener of the radio show asked me to rank the franchises from #32 to #1 based on their accomplishments during the Super Bowl era.

So I did. I wanted it to be objective, not subjective. I wanted it to be a formula and you would just enter the numbers and it would spit out the rankings with no favoritism or prejudice. So, I have been doing this since every year since 2001, on the week following the Super Bowl. Since then, it has been imitated a time or two , but I don’t mind. It is pretty obvious idea for any sports nerd with time on hand to come up with.

Here is how it works. Each Franchise gets 1 point for each season it makes the playoffs. Then, if it reaches the Conference Championship Game it gets a total of 3 points. If it makes the Super Bowl it gets 5, and if it wins the Super Bowl it wins the maximum total of points in a given year of 11. It used to be 10 for the Super Bowl, but I have adjusted it because I didn’t like the idea that 2 Super Bowl losses equaled a Super Bowl win. So, Now 11 points for a win and 5 for a loss in the Super Bowl.

I have been asked why no points are given for wins in the Wildcard round, but I decided that would not make sense with the idea that the playoffs have expanded over the years and there is no way to equalize a smaller field to a larger one. Also, a Wildcard win is not that big a deal anymore with 6 teams in the playoffs, so unless you reach the Conference Title game, no additional points beyond the 1 for making the post-season.

I also have been asked how come I don’t go by average points per season (since many teams have joined the league since Super Bowl 1. My answer is simple: I don’t want to penalize teams who have been in the league all of the years. If you go by average points per year rather than total points, it is possible that the Baltimore Ravens would be #1 soon if they win another Super Bowl next year. And it is fair to note how great Baltimore has done compared to teams around them in the rankings. No chance I would believe that premise, given that they didn’t exist prior to 1996. But, if a team has been established since the season of Super Bowl 1 (1966), it is notated.

Just add up the points for all the years, and that is the entire formula. (By the way, if you disagree with the point totals for each accomplishment, you will find that just about any reasonable formula spits out about the same results.  Try me, pick your own point values.)

Otherwise, I break ties based on the team with more Super Bowl wins, then Super Bowl losses, then Championship Game wins, then playoff berths, and finally average points per year.

There are no ties. I will settle it somehow.

We have added "average pts per year" in the last 2 versions - so that we may determine results based on years in the league. 24 of the 32 teams have been here the entire span of the 47 years of Super Bowl football, but this metric will help put the other 8 teams: Saints '67, Bengals '68, Seahawks '76, Buccaneers '76, Jaguars '95, Panthers '95, Ravens '96, and Texans '02. Also, the Browns missed 96-98, so they only have 44 seasons to work with.

Here are the Final Rankings through Super Bowl 47:


Teams #1-#10
=========================================

#1 - Pittsburgh Steelers (Last year, #1)

In 2011, it finally happened. When Super Bowl 30 was completed, the Cowboys were at 101 and the Steelers were at 68 points. Well, since then, the Steelers have been the model of excellence for anyone not in New England, and the Cowboys have been, well, the Cowboys. Therefore, based on the tie breaking system, the Steelers took over as the current heavyweight leader in the Super Bowl era. The first time in years that the Cowboys have not held this post.  2012 did not change this at all as both teams missed the playoffs.

Total Points: 108
Total Playoff Years: 72C, 73, 74S, 75S, 76C, 77, 78S, 79S, 82, 83, 84C, 89, 92, 93, 94C, 95SL, 96, 97C, 01C, 02, 04C, 05S, 07, 08S, 10SL, 11

P: 26
4: 7
2: 2
1: 6

Average: 2.3 points per season

Pittsburgh holds the tiebreaker over Dallas because of Lombardi Trophies, 6-5.

#2 - Dallas Cowboys (Last Year, #2)

Dallas has the most playoff appearances, the most Final 4s, and are tied with Pittsburgh for the most Super Bowl appearances. However, since 1996, they have a performance level that actually trails the Jacksonville Jaguars and is certainly a team that is getting by on reputation and history. They are far removed from where they once stood, and yet, they still can claim to have as many or more points than any other franchise. They were a dominant, dominant franchise for 30 years.  So much so, that according to these numbers, the Cowboys had 101 points through the first 30 Super Bowls and just 7 points in the last 17.  That equates to 3.3 points per season for the first 30 years and 0.4 per year in the 17 years since.  Yikes.

Total Points: 108
Total Playoff Years: 66C, 67C, 68, 69, 70SL, 71S, 72C, 73C, 75SL, 76, 77S, 78SL, 79, 80C, 81C, 82C, 83, 85, 91, 92S, 93S, 94C, 95S, 96, 98, 99, 03, 06, 07, 09

P: 30
4: 8
2: 3
1: 5

Average: 2.3 points per season


#3 - San Francisco 49ers (#3)

The 49ers were poised to get another Super Bowl this season, but they hit the wall in the final game.  Even if they had won this Super Bowl 47, it would not have caught Dallas and Pittsburgh for the top pairing, but it would have put them a season away.  Nevertheless, they certainly solidify their spot further in the top 3 and look prepared to continue to do more winning moving forward.

Total Points: 93
Total Playoff Years: 70C, 71C, 72, 81S, 83C, 84S, 85, 86, 87, 88S, 89S, 90C, 92C, 93C, 94S, 95, 96, 97C, 98, 01, 02, 11C, 12SL

P: 22
4: 8
2: 1
1: 5

Average: 1.98 points per season


#4 - Oakland Raiders (#4)

Now, having missed the playoffs every season since their last Super Bowl in SB 37, 11 long years ago, they reside easily in the Top 5, but have been a dormant franchise themselves for a while now. But, looking at the rest of their history, they remain one of the strongest franchises of the Super Bowl era.

Total Points: 77
Total Playoff Years: 67SL, 68C, 69C, 70C, 72, 73C, 74C, 75C, 76S, 77C, 80S, 82, 83S, 84, 85, 90C, 91, 93, 00C, 01, 02SL

P: 21
4: 9
2: 2
1: 3

Average: 1.64 points per season

#5 - New England Patriots (#6)

The gold standard of this millennium, the Patriots have been the Giants victim twice, or they would be right on top of the Raiders . However, given that they have gained 52 points since 2001, they are still the franchise that has been on the move the most. And overall, they have now been to 7 Super Bowls, which trails just 2 other franchises.  This year, their AFC Championship Game put them 5th, passing Green Bay in the process.

Total Points: 69
Total Playoff Years: 76, 78, 82, 85SL, 86, 94, 96SL, 97, 98, 01S, 03S, 04S, 05, 06C, 07SL, 09, 10, 11SL, 12C

P: 17
4: 2
2: 4
1: 3

Average: 1.47 points per season


#6 - Green Bay Packers (#5)

Another year of high expectations, but a stall out in the divisional round, puts them down to 6th as the Patriots passed them.  Of course, their older fans will remind the crowd that their 13 Championships overall might dispute football history starting in 1966. Nevertheless, in the Super Bowl era, they had a substantial break between Bart Starr and Brett Favre where nothing got accomplished.

Total Points: 67
Total Playoff Years: 66S, 67S, 72, 82, 93, 94, 95C, 96S, 97SL, 98, 01, 02, 03, 04, 07C, 09, 10S, 11, 12

P: 19
4: 2
2: 1
1: 4

Average: 1.43 points per season

#7 - New York Giants (#7)

The Giants, despite their rich history, are a team with a shocking few number of playoff years. Yet, when they do actually get in, they seem to do some pretty special things. 5 Super Bowls in just 14 playoffs years is outstanding.  In 2012, though, they missed the playoffs and were caught at 59 points by Denver - yet still hold the tiebreaker with 4 Super Bowl victories.

Total Points: 59
Total Playoff Years: 81, 84, 85, 86S, 89, 90S, 93, 97, 00SL, 02, 05, 06, 07S, 08, 11S

P: 14
4: 0
2: 1
1: 4

Average: 1.25 points per season

New York holds advantage over Denver based on Lombardi Trophies, 4-2

# 8 - Denver Broncos (#8)

Peyton Manning had them dreaming of a higher finish in 2012, but they did manage to blow the #1 seed and left the year disappointed. Still, soundly in the Top 10 franchises after going the first 12 years of the Super Bowl era before they made their initial playoff entrance.

Total Points: 59
Total Playoff Years: 77SL, 78, 79, 83, 84, 86SL, 87SL, 89SL, 91C, 93, 96, 97S, 98S, 00, 03, 04, 05C, 11

P: 19
4: 2
2: 4
1: 2

Average: 1.25 points per season


#9 - Miami Dolphins (#9)

Nothing new to report in Miami.  Another proud franchise with a strong history, but they have certainly allowed that to be about all they have to fall back on this last decade. No consistent QB play and a carousel of coaches have put the Dolphins on the outside looking in since Dan Marino's prime. The drought continues for the Dolphins.

Total Points: 58
Total Playoff Years: 70, 71SL, 72S, 73S, 74, 78, 79, 81, 82SL, 83, 84SL, 85C, 90, 92C, 94, 95, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 08

P: 22
4: 2
2: 3
1: 2

Average: 1.23 points per season

#10 - Washington Redskins (#9)

It is highly possible - Robert Griffin's knee willing - that the Redskins are at the start of an era that is headed in the right direction.  We shall see about that, but if nothing else, they found themselves in the playoffs with a divisional win and a feeling that things were going to start happening.  Still in the Top 10, but its been 20 years since the Redskins were a Super Bowl possibility.

Total Points: 57
Total Playoff Years: 71, 72SL, 73, 74, 76, 82S, 83SL, 84, 86C, 87S, 90, 91S, 92, 99, 05, 07, 12

P: 17
4: 1
2: 2
1: 3

Average: 1.21 points per season

TEAMS #11-#20
=======================================

#11 - Indianapolis/Baltimore Colts (#11)

Some teams have plenty of luck and the Colts must be feeling that after bidding Peyton Manning farewell only to draft a rookie QB who promptly takes them to the playoffs as a rookie.  That is a very, rare feat and one that seems to have them positioned for great accomplishments moving forward as well.  It was one and done, but they certainly like their odds moving forward with Andrew Luck.

Total Points: 55
Total Playoff Years: 68SL, 70S, 71C, 75, 76, 77, 87, 95C, 96, 99, 00, 02, 03C, 04, 05, 06S, 07, 08, 09SL, 10, 12

P: 21
4: 3
2: 2
1: 2

Average: 1.17 points per season

#12 - Minnesota Vikings (#12 last year)

Every team above the Vikings on this list has not only won a Super Bowl, but they have won at least two Super Bowls. So, for the Vikings to be so close to those teams despite never winning one, surely speaks to their excellence for so many years. 27 playoff entries is more than anyone in the league aside from the Steelers or Cowboys. They just have never won a gold medal. Nor, as it turns out, have they ever had the lead in any of their 4 Super Bowls. Truly cursed.  But, to make the playoffs in 2012 was a wonderful surprise and one they hope to continue to build upon.

Total Points: 53
Total Playoff Years: 68, 69SL, 70, 71, 73SL, 74SL, 75, 76SL, 77C, 78, 80, 82, 87C, 88, 89, 92, 93, 94, 96, 97, 98C, 99, 00C, 04, 08, 09C, 12

P: 27
4: 5
2: 4
1: 0

Average: 1.12 points per season


#13 - St Louis/Los Angeles Rams (#13)

The Rams, out of the playoffs now for almost a decade, are another team that has been pretty quiet during the last several seasons since the days of Kurt Warner and the greatest show on turf. But, in the 1970s, they had a run of 4 years out of 5 where their seasons ended in the NFC Championship game, usually, at the hands of the Cowboys.

Total Points: 51
Total Playoff Years: 67, 69, 73, 74C, 75C, 76C, 77, 78C, 79SL, 80, 83, 84, 85C, 86, 88, 89C, 99S, 00, 01SL, 03, 04

P: 21
4: 6
2: 2
1: 1

Average: 1.08 points per season


#14 - Philadelphia Eagles (#14 last season)

Like the Colts, a mainstay in the playoffs for nearly the entire decade, but have now missed the last two years. Another team that has often been a resident of the post season, without ever winning the big prize. This is a fact that is not lost on its rivals.

Total Points: 35
Total Playoff Years: 78, 79, 80SL, 81, 88, 89, 90, 92, 95, 96, 00, 01C, 02C, 03C, 04SL, 06, 08C, 09, 10

P: 19
4: 4
2: 2
1: 0

Average: 0.75 points per season

#15 - Chicago Bears (#15)

Like Green Bay, the Bears would like to use championships that preceded the Super Bowl era, but in the 47 years of the modern era, the Bears have not been able to string together any prolonged success. In fact, with the exception of those great teams in the 1980's, it has often been a series of good seasons that are not followed with any manner of success in the next year. Like 2010's NFC Championship Game followed by 2011 and 2012 in which they missed the playoffs altogether.

Total Points: 34
Total Playoff Years: 77, 79, 84C, 85S, 86, 87, 88C, 90, 91, 94, 01, 05, 06SL, 10C

P: 13
4: 3
2: 1
1: 1

Average: 0.72 points per season

Chicago holds the tiebreaker over Buffalo because of Lombardi Trophies, 1-0.

#16 - Buffalo Bills (#16)

The Bills obviously had their crack at NFL immortality during their 4 year stretch of the 1990s when they ran into NFC East buzz-saws. Since then, they have not sniffed much of anything, with their last moments in the playoffs still being the "Music City Miracle" in Nashville. That was a long, long time ago.  It has now been 13 years since they made the playoffs - the longest drought in the NFL by a very healthy margin.

Total Points: 34
Total Playoff Years: 66C, 74, 80, 81, 88C, 89, 90SL, 91SL, 92SL, 93SL, 95, 96, 98, 99

P: 14
4: 2
2: 4
1: 0

Average: 0.23 points per season


#17 – Baltimore Ravens (#22)

Established 1996 - (The NFL ruled that all old records stay in Cleveland with the Browns.)

The big mover in 2012 was the Baltimore Ravens who have absolutely been dominant in the last 5 years with 3 seasons in the Final 4 and now a Lombardi Trophy to boot.  They jumped from #22 to #17 and in 17 years have beaten teams who have been around from Super Bowl 1.  There is no doubting their excellence since their inception and this year gives them 2 Super Bowl titles.

Total Points: 33
Total Playoff Years: 00S, 01, 03, 06, 08C, 09, 10, 11C, 12S

P: 7
4: 2
2: 0
1: 2

Average: 1.94 - 17 years


#18 - New York Jets (#17 last season)

The only team in the league that has approached the Cowboys level of media coverage for little substance in recent years missed the playoffs again after leading Sportscenter all year. After two AFC Championship Games in a row, the Jets were unable to join the postseason in the last 2. Despite that, Rex Ryan has been able to accomplish more in his 4 seasons than the 40 years prior to that going back to Namath's Super Bowl 3.

Total Points: 32
Total Playoff Years: 68S, 69, 81, 82C, 85, 86, 91, 98C, 01, 02, 04, 06, 09C, 10C

P: 13
4: 4
2: 0
1: 1

Average: 0.68 points per season

#19 - Kansas City Chiefs (#18)

The Chiefs played in 2 of the first 4 Super Bowls, winning Super Bowl 4. However, since 1970, the Chiefs have only been to one AFC Championship Game in 1993. Other than that, it has been a series of one-and-outs and plenty of years with no playoffs whatsoever.  And since they are picking 1st in the draft, it would seem that they are rather far away from changing things, too.

Total Points: 31
Total Playoff Years: 66SL, 68, 69S, 71, 86, 90, 91, 92, 93C, 94, 95, 97, 03, 06, 10

P: 15
4: 1
2: 1
1: 1

Average: 0.66 points per season

#20 - Tennessee Titans/Houston Oilers (#19)

The Titans remain at #19 after another year of missing the post-season. With some reasonable years of success in Houston and one Super Bowl loss in Nashville, the Oilers remain in the Top 20 for now.  Barely.

Total Points: 30
Total Playoff Years: 67C, 69, 78C, 79C, 80, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 99SL, 00, 02C, 03, 07, 08

P: 18
4: 4
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.64 points per season

Teams 21-30
==================================


#21 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#20)

Established 1976

Surely, at this point, the Buccaneers realize that being in a hurry to chase Jon Gruden out of there was mistaken, right? Regardless, a team that hit its prime in the late 90s and rode it to a Super Bowl Championship in 2002, has returned to its place among the also-rans in the NFC. They now have a 5 year streak going with no playoffs and will attempt to get that turned around with a new coaching staff.

Total Points: 24
Total Playoff Years: 79C, 81, 82, 97, 99C, 00, 01, 02S, 05, 07

P: 10
4: 2
2: 0
1: 1

Average: 0.65 - 37 seasons

Tampa Bay holds the tiebreaker over Cleveland because of Lombardi Trophies, 1-0.


#22 - Cleveland Browns (#21)

No season 1996-1998

The post-relocation Cleveland Browns has been absolutely pathetic. One playoff appearance in the 14 seasons since being a new expansion team and really no real signs of having turned the direction of the franchise around. But, let's not act like they were winning a ton before they lost the Browns to Baltimore. They severely need a revival amongst their franchise to give those loyal fans something to smile about in Cleveland.

Total Points: 24
Total Playoff Years: 67, 68C, 69C, 71, 72, 80, 82, 85, 86C, 87C, 88, 89C, 94, 02

P: 14
4: 5
2: 0
1: 0

Average: 0.55 in 44 seasons

#23 - San Diego Chargers (#23)

Wow - another year of expectations without even a playoff berth for the Chargers.  Certainly, more was expected from this franchise given their level of QB play they have had for almost 3 decades. But, to this point, they have flirted with some real good teams and even made one Super Bowl, but San Diego still chases its one dream season that may or may not await them down the road.

Total Points: 22
Total Playoff Years: 79, 80C, 81C, 82, 92, 94SL, 95, 04, 06, 07C, 08, 09

P: 12
4: 3
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.47

#24 – New Orleans Saints (#24)

Established 1967

A shocking omission to the playoffs in 2012, thanks to Bounty Gate.  The Saints are living their glory days right now in the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era, and have won a Super Bowl and flirted with others in the last several years. This once pathetic franchise has raised its accomplishment level several notches and has worked its way out of the basement of franchises in the NFL in quick fashion.

Total Points: 21
Total Playoff Years: 87, 90, 91, 92, 00, 06C, 09S, 10, 11

P: 9
4: 1
2: 0
1: 1

Average: 0.46 in 46 seasons


#25 – Atlanta Falcons (#27)

This is in fact, the glory days of the Atlanta Falcons.  Surely, they are disappointed with the way that 2012 finished by losing a championship game on home turf in which they had a substantial lead.  But, any Falcons fan knows that before 2010, the franchise had never made the playoffs in consecutive years.  Now, they have made the tournament 3 straight years.  Not only that, but they now win with great routine and are a bet to keep winning - they have also passed the Bengals and the Seahawks on this list for 2012.

Total Points: 20
Total Playoff Years: 78, 80, 82, 91, 95, 98SL, 02, 04C, 08, 10, 11, 12C

P: 11
4: 2
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.43


#26 - Cincinnati Bengals (#25)

Established 1968

The Bengals have 2 different Super Bowl losses to great San Francisco teams in the 1980s. Beyond that, they have never been able to put together consecutive seasons of playoff football until they just did it in 2011 and 2012 with a young group of players including Andy Dalton. Time will tell as Mike Brown running the franchise still has many thinking that long-term success will not happen with him at the helm, but they have actually built a nice foundation.

Total Points: 19
Total Playoff Years: 70, 73, 75, 81SL, 82, 88SL, 90, 05, 09, 11, 12

P: 11
4: 0
2: 2
1: 0

Average: 0.41 - 45 seasons


#27 - Seattle Seahawks (#26)

Established 1976

After a fantastic 2012, Seattle has worked its way to the playoffs 7 times in the last 10. Still chasing its first Super Bowl title, the Seahawks have at least climbed out of the bottom of the league into the mid-20s.  The Seahawks have built a young, physical squad and look ready to keep building.

Total Points: 18
Total Playoff Years: 83C, 84, 87, 88, 99, 03, 04, 05SL, 06, 07, 10, 12

P: 12
4: 1
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.49 - 37 seasons


#28 - Carolina Panthers (#28)

Established 1995

Another year of hoping Cam Newton takes them where they hope to go, but another year of waiting til next year.  So close to winning Super Bowl 38, the Panthers have only made the playoffs 4 times, but the Final 4 in 3 of those 4 runs. They don't get there often, but when they do, they make it count.

Total Points: 12
Total Playoff Years: 96C, 03SL, 05C, 08

P: 4
4: 2
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.66 - 18 seasons

Carolina holds the tiebreaker over Detroit because of Super Bowl Appearances, 1-0 .

#29 - Detroit Lions (#29)

As we approach the bottom of our list, we always shake our heads at the Detroit Lions as a team that has seemed to always find the worst possible scenario on their seasons.  If you believe that winning is cyclical, you might argue that the Detroit Lions are on a 60 year cycle.  They appeared to be ready to win for years when they made the playoffs in 2011, but went back to their underachieving ways in 2012.

Total Points: 12
Total Playoff Years: 70, 82, 83, 91C, 93, 94, 95, 97, 99, 11

P: 10
4: 1
2: 0
1: 0

Average: 0.25

#30 – Arizona/St Louis Cardinals (#30)

The Cardinals, formerly of St Louis, also used Kurt Warner to usher in a brief revival of their franchise (like the Rams). But, it was short-lived, as was the Kevin Kolb era and now they seek the next guy to try and get them out of the bottom handful of teams in this study. To be ranked 30th and only above two expansion franchises speaks to the futility of this team that has had many horrid seasons in its long history.

Total Points: 10
Total Playoff Years: 74, 75, 82, 98, 08SL, 09

P: 6
4: 0
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.21

Arizona holds tie-breaker over Jacksonville due to Super Bowl appearances, 1-0.

#31 – Jacksonville Jaguars (#31)

Established 1995

Jacksonville certainly showed their fans how easy football was when they took off from expansion and went to the playoffs in 4 of their first 5 years with Tom Coughlin and Mark Brunell getting the Jaguars to two AFC Championship Games. Since then, not much of anything has happened for them and the stadium has a real difficult time finding capacity crowds.

Total Points: 10
Total Playoff Years: 96C, 97, 98, 99C, 05, 07

P: 6
4: 2
2: 0
1: 0

Average: 0.55 per season - 18 seasons

#32 – Houston Texans (32)

Established 2002

Finally, in last place, but at least now on the scoreboard in the last two years, are the Houston Texans. They made their first playoff appearance of their history in 2011 and then backed it up with another, and will need many good seasons to pull out of 32nd place (short of a Super Bowl victory). That being said, they are now on the scoreboard and are feeling good about their future - with 2 playoff victories in 2 years.

Total Points: 2
Total Playoff Years: 11, 12

P: 2
4: 0
2: 0
1: 0

Average: 0.18 - 11 seasons

Explanation of Years:
Just the year means they made the playoffs (1 point). Year followed by “C” means they lost in the Conference Championship Game (3 points), Year followed by “SL” means they lost the Super Bowl (5 points), and Year followed by “S” means they won the Super Bowl (11 points).

Version 11.0

Version 10.0

Version 9.0

Version 8.0

Version 7.0 …

Version 6.0 …

The Morning After: NFL Divisional Round

It is becoming more difficult to deny the existence of a spectacular "sea change" in the NFL in 2012.

It is happening.  The NFL is having a revolution.  And the revolution is being televised for all of us to see.

Tactics in football can often fly under the radar as millions watch every game.  When a team shifts its defensive line from a 4-3 over front to a 4-3 under, nobody notes it or knows what it means.

But, when Colin Kaepernick is running down the field for a 56-yard touchdown run in the playoffs, it is a play of fantastic substance that is swinging the balance of power in the NFL.

He ran for 181 yards and passed for 263 more as the 49ers demolished Green Bay in front of the eyes of the football world.  This, in a game in which he was the biggest question mark and one which started with Kaepernick throwing an interception for a Touchdown the other way.

He was fantastic and despite his lack of experience, or even more damning, "big game experience", it was surely a game in which he wasn't ready.  But, then he went and did that.  He ran for more yards than any QB ever did in any game in the National Football League.  And here is an even more stunning number:  He ran for 3 yards after contact.

That means, according to ESPN, he ran for 178 yards without contact.  Please, allow a moment for that to sink in.

He ran for 178 yards without being touched.

And this is the revolution of the NFL game happening right before our eyes.

99 of his yards were on the zone-read option, a play we are all becoming quite familiar with.  It features a posture out of the shotgun that allows for an inside run to a RB or an outside counter by the QB that is primarily based on the movement of the unblocked edge rusher.  If he crashes inside to get the runner, the QB keeps and has the ability to turn the corner on the unblocked man.  If he stays high to keep the corner closed off, then they take the inside run without support from the crash.  It is a multiple choice question in which the defense can hardly ever guess correctly.  It is simple, but the NFL has not gone down this road much in the past because of conventional wisdom.

Ah, conventional wisdom.  No type of wisdom slows down evolution in sports quite like the good ol "way we have always done things".  And, of course, in the NFL, that has told us that you should never run your QB.  He will get killed.  The defenders are too big and fast and strong.  You can run that all you want, but don't come to us when he is getting carried off the field.

But, what if RBs get hurt all of the time?  Is that reckless to run them down the field with the ball in their hands, looking for yardage wherever they can find it?  No.  That is the risk of playing RB.  So, why is QB different?  Usually, because in our head, RBs are built to withstand punishment.  Also, they have the uncanny ability to not take direct hits very often.  The best way to survive the vicious NFL hit is to avoid it, right?

Well, what if we could find a QB who has those same traits?  What if he was fast as a running back - or faster?  Kaepernick ran a 4.53 at the combine, which would put him right there with with some of the faster running backs - Shane Vareen (formerly of California, now of New England) is sold to us as a speedster and ran a 4.50.  Well, Kaepernick is a fraction of a second behind him.  But, a slight fraction at that.

Now, what if the scheme was built around this truth?  What if the coaches really bought in?  And what if it was happening all over the league at the same time?  What if football was changing before your eyes in a way that made you recalculate your thoughts about a sport where Pro-Style I formation is all you hold dear?

What if Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin, Cam Newton, and Kaepernick were all here at the same time?  And what if Geno Smith and Johnny Manziel appear to be next in line?  Are you buying in that this is the new direction of the league or the next passing fad that will disappear soon?

Let's be clear - we have seen fads.  We know the Wildcat rocked the NFL's world for about 1 season.  We also know that one reason this works is because it defies convention and that nobody deals with it at the NFL level.  But, if it hauls off and makes it to the Super Bowl, it will not be quirky anymore - it will be mainstream.  As Smart Football wrote about last month, this is all mostly from the lineage of the air-raid offense, and now that the entire Big 12 is running it (it seems), it will truly be tested if people see it every week.

I confess, despite the fact that my team (part-owner) was getting steam-rolled on Saturday night, I do love the evolution of the NFL game.  The moneyball question in our sport is simple:  Since it appears that teams that have Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees have a decided advantage over teams that don't, how can the rest of the league compete against truly elite QB play?  If it takes 31 points to send those teams home from the playoffs, how can we get 35 from less-than-elite QBs?

The answer might be to find an offensive scheme where our QB can be elite by entering feet into the equation and not simply the arm.  And then find that QB.

There were many QBs before this point that got us to Cam Newton.  How Michael Vick and Tim Tebow (so far) and Vince Young never reached these heights might be a discussion about arm strength,  arm accuracy, football IQ, dedication to the sport, or the fact that they never found the right scheme.  Or, we might consider the fact that 1-year ago yesterday, Tebow was still in the playoffs, QB for the Denver Broncos and pulling off a playoff win with a scheme that was not that far from what we saw on fields this year.

But, his organization and their leader, John Elway, didn't seem to believe in the experiment - especially if Peyton Manning was available.  And who can blame him?

But, Kaepernick is not a "running QB".  He is a very strong passer with accuracy that seems to be strong to quite strong, and the ability to get the ball down the field.  Griffin-like, if you will.  And, he is one of only 4 QBs in the history of college football to run for 20 Touchdowns and pass for 20 Touchdowns in the same season.  The others?  Tebow, Newton, and Manziel.  He was finding Michael Crabtree and friends with great ease at times on Saturday, and all Green Bay could do was shake their heads and go home.

Not all of these QBs are going to ever run for 181 yards in a playoff game.  Geno Smith hardly likes to run at all.  But, he runs that globetrotter ball fake-routine that would make Mike Leach proud, and then make you pay with throws to all angles of the field.  And, he will go in the Top 10 this year (some say #1, but we are 100 days from the draft).

Many are telling us that this won't last because they will get hurt.  You don't want your QB taking hits like that, right?  And yes, there are shades of grey here.  Some QBs are going to learn the hard way that contact comes with a toll.  But, what if a team so believed in the scheme that the 2nd and 3rd string guys also are run/pass hybrid QBs?  Could it work?

Of course, you will always take Andrew Luck if you have a chance.  He is a tremendous athlete, but I would be pretty shocked to see Luck on a zone-read option where he is galloping down the field like Kaepernick or even Russell Wilson - another guy that prefers to beat you with his arm.  But, this might come back to the original question:  If you don't have Brady, Manning, Rodgers or Brees and yet you are playing for the same trophy, do you try to beat them at their own game with Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, or even Matt Schaub?  Or do you try to change your entire thinking about the NFL game, look to Dana Holgorsen and Kliff Kingsbury for inspiration, and match scheme with player in a way where the league is not sure whether to mock you or copy you?

Which leads us to other tentacles of this discussion:  Looking at how Dom Capers was embarrassed by this scheme on Saturday night, do we ask if decorated defensive minds in the NFL are able to adjust to this?  He won a Super Bowl 2 years ago, so he clearly knows what he is doing, but he almost surrendered 600 yards to what appears to be a relatively typical version of this dynamic offense.  It makes you wonder if Monte Kiffin is prepared to deal with the division going through the zone read in Washington.  The Tampa 2 is to slow down the West Coast offense and the greatest show on turf over in St Louis.  How many times did Tampa have to deal with what we are seeing in 2012?

I am not sure anyone knows where this is headed.  And it would have to win a trophy or two before anyone allows it better footing in the annals of football history than the run-and-shoot or the wildcat.  People will always prefer the idea of allowing a QB to drop back in the pocket and throw for 360 and run for nothing, because that is how we all were raised on our NFL football.

But, changes happen.  Bright minds see a problem and rather than running into the walls of failure repeatedly, they try to get creative and figure out a new way around the wall.

And maybe, in 2012, in places like San Francisco, Washington, and Seattle, we are seeing where this league could be heading.

Meanwhile, who knows how many NFL GMs are sifting through the college ranks and wondering who could be the next guy to build this around?

I am not sure Manziel could have picked a better year to do what he just did in the college ranks.  The question no longer seems to be whether he can play in the NFL.  The question seems to be, "how quickly can you get here?"

Thinking About RG3

As we roll through the summer, I hope to keep a close eye on the foes in the NFC East from a Cowboys perspective. This division has 4 very proud, historically proven franchises, and none of them are too satisfied unless they figure out a way to get on top.

The Eagles, a team that has had almost no horrid seasons under Andy Reid, still are the team that is defies the NFL thought that if you are in the mix long enough, eventually you will win a Super Bowl. They still chase their first title in over 50 years.

The Giants, a team that has managed to come out of left field to win a Super Bowl - twice in 5 years - proving it is either not a fluke or it is at the most amazing repeatable fluke ever. Honestly, the history books will identify them as the team of this era - having won 2 Super Bowls over the mighty Patriots in 5 years. But, were they the team of the era or two teams that qualified for the playoffs and then got hot? Regular season wins over those 5 years? Patriots 63, Giants 49. But, given that "styles make fights", we can certainly surmise that the Giants found a style in January - TWICE - and therefore have their claim to the throne. It doesn't matter who the best team in the regular season actually was.

Then, the Cowboys and Redskins. The stars of the American Express commercial so long ago, and two league heavyweights for a long, long time. But, since they both won their Super Bowls in the early 1990s, the cupboard has gone dry. Washington has but 3 wildcard round victories since the 1991 season, and only 1 playoff win in the new millennium. Dallas, meanwhile, has but 2 wildcard victories of their own since the 1995 Super Bowl.

The Redskins, though, think their fortunes are surely about to change. If not, they would not have traded their 1st Round picks in 2012, 2013, and 2014, as well as their 2nd round pick in 2012 to move up and get the Rams #2 overall selection to take Robert Griffin III from Baylor.

RG3 is a fantastic talent that many years would have been worthy of #1 overall. Andrew Luck will make that either a historical debate or at least a Ryan Leaf-type footnote on both of their careers. Luck will now take his chance in Indianapolis and Washington will be where RG3 will either sink or swim. And according to Dan Pompei's weekly column at the National Football Post, neither franchise is going to wait to unleash their new hope:

One year ago, 19 out of 20 coaches might have told you the preferred way to develop a rookie quarterback would be to let him sit and learn and acclimate slowly. Then along came Cam Newton and Andy Dalton, throwing conventional wisdom a wicked curveball.

The success the quarterbacks experienced as rookies has caused many to reevaluate the traditional way of thinking. You know Andrew Luck will be taking every snap from the start of camp. Robert Griffin III was named the starter in Washington before he had his first practice with Redskins veterans. And the Dolphins and Browns will be pushing Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden on the field as soon as possible.

Simple as that. Draft him and start him. Something that used to be insane is now normal. Like Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Matt Stafford, Newton, and Dalton, these franchises don't even get through the first month of their first year before they are behind the wheel. Heck, Dalton and Newton did it last year without the benefits of OTA's and the offseason programs due to the lockout. They just played football and now the idea that Steve McNair and Aaron Rodgers were groomed slowly has been discarded for the start-from-Day 1 approach.

But, since their last elite QB - league MVP Mark Rypien, they have rolled out seasons with Heath Shuler, Gus Frerotte, Trent Green, Brad Johnson, Tony Banks, Patrick Ramsey, Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell, Donovan McNabb, and Rex Grossman. And that isn't even digging down to the QBs who never made it a season as starter. They are ready for their golden boy. And were willing to overpay to find him.

Here is why I expect great success from Griffin and the Redskins on a rather quick basis. I think, and evidently the Redskins agree given their willingness to part with 4 premium picks to secure him, that Griffin is tailor-made to fit the Mike Shanahan system. In fact, if you consider what Shanahan truly believes in from an offensive standpoint, you might say he fits as well as just about any QB that Shanahan has dealt with since John Elway.

Shanahan is perhaps the biggest believer in football - along with his former OC Gary Kubiak, now head coach of the Houston Texans, of the zone stretch QB naked bootleg rollout design that stresses so many defenses in the NFL. My colleague in football dorkdom, TC Fleming, broke this down in great detail a few years back as a study on the Houston Texans and I would encourage you to read the entire piece to get great insight on what I expect the plan is for RG3 in Washington.

While in Denver, they carved out a pretty distinct sort of identity. The idea, if I could simplify way down, is to use their zone blocking system to get Terrell Davis going on the ground. Then with the defense keying on him, have John Elway fake the handoff to Davis and roll to the opposite side where he had the option to either throw to a receiver whose defender had bit on the fake to Davis or run it himself into the areas voided by the over-pursuing defense. That's why Shanahan and Kubiak worked so hard to get Jake Plummer as a free agent and why they traded up to get Jay Cutler in the draft: the general system is predicated on having a quarterback who can throw well on the run, pick up yards himself when needed and just generally execute this style of play-action pass known as the bootleg.

Below, you can see the basic zone stretch left with the bootleg right. Ignore the jersey numbers, as this graphic was based on the 2010 Houston Texans, but the idea is the same:



It is important to note that the action from the OL and the Running Backs repeats over and over. But, the variations with personnel groupings and who is running which routes is where the Broncos/Texans/Redskins make your head spin. Sometimes, the FB is on a shallow and the backside receiver goes deep. Sometimes the play side receiver is dragging at an intermediate depth and the TE is shallow. It varies and that is why you cannot get a good feel for it.

What happens is over time, you either cheat the run or cheat the pass. They keep pounding the other until you stop cheating. But, here is why Schaub, Cutler, Plummer, and especially Grossman cannot run it like RG3. They were never close to the fastest man on the field.

How do you spy Griffin on a naked bootleg or a waggle? And if you figure it out, then he puts on the breaks and delivers a strike. But, if you don't respect his legs, what keeps him from breaking contain and moving the chains?

And if you spend too much time on Griffin on the naked, then, can you contain the running game on the simple zone? You ask who the Redskins have at running back? I will counter with asking if you could name any of the anonymous runners Shanahan made famous running this concept with lesser QBs causing the classic conflict.

Obviously, to replicate the offense properly, they will need a deep threat and a useful group or receivers. With their offseason, it appears they have placed their resources in fixing that. They also have a strong collection of tight ends to make this offense really work.

Nobody is here to suggest they will make the postseason in year 1. But, with an already formidable front 7 on defense, you can see the philosophy in place. It makes sense on paper. Whether they have the depth and all of the pieces in place can be debated, but it would be folly to assume that Washington is still a group of over-the-hill mismatched parts. With Shanahan and Bruce Allen, there is a very clear list of objectives being checked off and they may just have the most important piece in place.

It will be fascinating to see how it takes shape, but if you are Dallas, you had better get familiar with the offense. And that might explain why the Cowboys don't feel that they can slow linebackers anymore. With Michael Vick and Griffin on the schedule 4 times a year, Keith Brooking and Bradie James had to go. Sean Lee and Bruce Carter will need to put their track shoes on to keep track of the opposing double-threat QBs.