Always the horses, seldom the jockey...
Daily Commentary on the Dallas Sports Scene - By Bob Sturm - Sportsradio 1310, The Ticket - The Athletic Dallas - The Athletic - Bob Sturm
With this crazy schedule, it has been a difficult stretch for the Cowboys and for answering your questions and concerns on Friday mornings. However, perhaps we are back in the swing of things for a moment or two, so let's see what you have on your Cowboys mind today and get down to business.
Q: Other than the Cowboys winning as many games as possible, what would have to happen to get a wildcard berth?
Well, you are going to need some help now. There is no real way around this and the Cowboys - as well as some other teams in a similar 6-6 bind - need to win out and get to 10-6. In doing so, that would require some teams to hit the wall. We assume that there is no catching those teams up top - Philadelphia, Minnesota, Los Angeles, and New Orleans - because at worst they all have nine wins and in the case of Los Angeles, the tie breaker against Dallas, too. Then, we turn our attention to the wildcard candidates to see if you can reel in one of those three leaders. They are Carolina at 8-4, Seattle at 8-4 and Atlanta at 8-5. Only two of those teams will get in and all of them can get past you in the win column as each can get to 11 or 12 wins. And, lest we forget, Atlanta has the head-to-head tie breaker, too.
So, now, for the Cowboys to have any chance, they must win all their games (which would give Seattle a loss and the tiebreaker loss) and hope those teams go on a real slump down. You would want Seattle to lose at Jacksonville this weekend (very possible) and the Vikings to win in Carolina. You probably wanted Atlanta to lose last night but that didn't happen and you technically aren't even chasing them, but they are between you and the goal. So, to put it nicely, you need some significant assistance and likely, like Detroit and Green Bay, are already in your grave and are in desperate need of a miracle. Probabilities are at 5 percent at the New York Times playoff machine and a 1-in-20 chance from here on in sounds about right. The Lions are at 8 percent and the Packers are at 7 percent if you are curious. As I said a few weeks back, it looks like seven teams are fighting for six spots and those three teams are not in the group of seven anymore. I wish I had better news for you, but those teams might have wanted to win a few more games last month. It has been that type of year.
Q: If the Cowboys could go back and change something they've done this season, what's the top thing that you think they'd do differently?
I'm not sure how to answer this because decision-making may not have been their biggest weakness, but here are a few. If you serve your Elliott suspension from Weeks 1-6, I think things would be different now (but that is difficult to prove). You ended up 3-3 with him and it is reasonable to assume you would have been able to do that well without him and then you have him from the Redskins game on and he is here for the stretch drive. That feels like the better decision.
I would have not been so thin at linebacker out of camp. They were in a spot where if Sean Lee got hurt, they were going to roll out Jaylon Smith in the early part of the year. I was hoping Smith would start on IR and return in Week 9 or so. But they needed him and I thought that was a mistake that was proven right from the get-go.
I also have a problem with their usage - or lack thereof - of Ryan Switzer on the offense and Rico Gathers overall. It appears that Rico was unavailable with a preseason concussion to a certain point, but then they decided to basically redshirt him again because "he had missed too much time." I have no idea what that means with regards to when he could have returned. But, for me, as I look at this struggling offense, I see too many pieces that do not frighten the opponent. Those both looked like weapons to deal with in the middle of the field. In other words, if you said what does this team lack and how can we fix it, I would say you need to acquire a few weapons that cause matchup issues for defenses because you are too easy to defend, especially without Zeke. So, I would say you need some underneath threats - like Switzer and a vertical TE - like Witten used to be and like Gathers appeared in August. They have both players. I have no idea the issues with Gathers or if they just don't want to discuss with Witten the idea of sitting down a bit more often than zero snaps a game, but, those glaring issues have never been dealt with and that is why the Cowboys offense looks pretty harmless.
Q: What's the No. 1 thing you're going to be watching for in the matchup with the Giants?
I personally have very little idea of what the Giants are going to look like. They have many familiar names on the IR and in a week with the coaching change (and front-office change) as well as the Eli Manning story, I have no idea what to expect from the Blue.
But, the Cowboys need to have that defense ready to run through whatever it is. They absolutely must take the game over and play with aggressiveness and an attacking posture. Because this is absolutely the type of game that can get away from you if you are not careful - and not really playing great football yourself.
Our old friend Janoris Jenkins is one of many foes on the IR, so it would help to get the passing game going, but if any team has been difficult on the Dak Prescott-led Cowboys offense - even on strong days - it is the Giants. But, this is the answer: For the Cowboys to have a chance, they have to have an offense again that can accomplish the titanic task of getting in the end zone. This has been very difficult without Elliott and the passing attack has never been this bad with a starting QB. In the last four weeks, they have thrown for a ridiculous 5.42 yards per attempt (so far below the rest of the NFL), a passer rating of 63.7, an average passing total of barely 150 yards a game, and two touchdowns with five interceptions. Ridiculous. Before that stretch, the Cowboys offense under Prescott was at 7.64 an attempt (up with the best in the league), a passer rating of 101.1, with 44 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions in 25 games.
You should not have the wheels fall off a passing game to this extent because you lost a RB. That should not be allowed to qualify as that big of an excuse. I'm sorry. There is no excuse for what we have seen.
Q: Is this just a sophomore slump for Dak or should we be more concerned?
I spent plenty of time on this earlier this week in the Decoding Linehan column, which I encourage you to check out. But the truth is that the Cowboys passing attack has lost its ability to find the big play.
...they have played four games during his suspension, and we see the issues of the big plays -- or lack thereof. There have been seven explosives in 16 quarters of football.
No team in the NFL has fewer explosive plays in the past month than the Cowboys.
Not one.
It gets worse. Of those seven explosives, only four are pass plays. Only three other teams have less than double that during this stretch. Chicago (6), Cincinnati (6) and Buffalo (5) have more than Dallas, too, but not double.
When you cannot generate any big plays - forget 20+ yard "explosives," how about anything in double digits? - then you are just a feeble team that can only score with a 13-play drive. You need explosiveness. But, that requires throwing the ball down the field and that is proving to be an issue with less than great protection, very poor QB throws and not much electric route running down the field. I am not sure how we got to this point after seeing the offense mow over everything in their path from the bye week until Kansas City, but here we are.
Q: Bob, I think that Dak was really affected by the beating that he took in Atlanta. (I am still angry with the coaching malpractice that day!) He just hasn't looked as confident and doesn't seem to trust his protection as he did before. What do you think?
I think he has not looked the same since. I do agree that he trusts his protection less and that he has lost his confidence from that day. But, that is his job. If he took a beating that day, and he did, then he is not the first QB to have a ridiculously difficult day. But, the job calls for you to shake it off (as difficult as that may be, and as easy as it is for guys like us to ask for it) and get back on the horse.
In other words, it might separate the good from the great. Those who can survive those tough days and keep the same level of nerve and confidence might be the top shelf. Those who are not the same again might find the job far more difficult. We need to see Prescott respond positively to negative experiences, because his first year and a half were largely good spots where his team was always ahead and things were going well with all sorts of weapons.
You may remember this tweet from before the season: Craziest Cowboys stat of 2016: trailed by 7 points or more in second half of any game for 42 snaps the entire season. Basically, not at all.
This year, they have come back to earth and are middle of the league in this stat. They have been down more than a touchdown in the second half for 130 snaps already. They have dropped from first overall to 15th overall. And that changes the job of the QB dramatically. When you play QB with the lead, you pass when you wish to pass. When you are behind, you let the defense dictate the terms and that is a way different reality for Dak Prescott or any QB.
And, to be a star QB in this league, you have to be able to excel in any spot or situation. The education continues.
Dallas Cowboys defensive end Taco Charlton (97) gets up after sacking Los Angeles Rams quarterback Sean Mannion (14) during the first half of play in a preseason game between the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California on Saturday, August 12, 2017. (Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News)
Vernon Bryant/Staff Photographer
Dallas Cowboys tight end Rico Gathers (80) catches the ball amongst Los Angeles Rams outside linebacker Josh Forrest (59) and Los Angeles Rams defensive back Marqui Christian (41) on a third down attempt during the first half of play in a preseason game between the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California on Saturday, August 12, 2017. (Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News)
Vernon Bryant/Staff Photographer
Dallas Cowboys defensive end Taco Charlton (97) gets up after sacking Los Angeles Rams quarterback Sean Mannion (14) during the first half of play in a preseason game between the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California on Saturday, August 12, 2017. (Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News)
Vernon Bryant/Staff Photographer
Dallas Cowboys tight end Rico Gathers (80) catches the ball amongst Los Angeles Rams outside linebacker Josh Forrest (59) and Los Angeles Rams defensive back Marqui Christian (41) on a third down attempt during the first half of play in a preseason game between the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California on Saturday, August 12, 2017. (Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News)
Let's start with the lead. There was very little of deep consequence accomplished on Saturday night in Los Angeles (of course, I recommend Los Angeles for all of your non-consequential preseason activities). When you scratch 21 players from a preseason opener - as the Dallas Cowboys did, you are quickly telling us a few important things:
1) - You are a smart team that understands the worst thing that can happen in the preseason is to lose an important piece in a meaningless game. Not all of the 21 players scratched were fit, but many of them were, and the Cowboys know what we all know, nothing good can happen from running Sean Lee, Ezekiel Elliott, or Cole Beasley out there.
2) - You already know most of your cutdowns and roster spots and don't require 5 games to sort that out.
3) - The NFL preseason system is antiquated and ridiculous and soaks fans of their dollars but accomplishes almost nothing else in modern times. At the very most, teams need about 2 exhibition games, but until further notice we will continue with this silly dance.
So, with that all in mind, I think it is safe to say that the countdown to opening night is on (27 days to go!).
But, for the sake of the exercise, let's examine some of the finer details about the Cowboys trip and subsequent loss to the Los Angeles Rams, in which neither team gave us any indication whatsoever about the quality of their team as almost no regulars played enough to impact the outcome in any way at all.
And, yes, I want to start with Rico Gathers again.
Now, one thing we must always remember in preseason is that because of the fact that teams take these games less and less seriously each year, the findings can be somewhat dubious. We can't always believe what we see because there is a real competition level that is being compromised when nobody will play their best players. In fact, it doesn't take long before they are not even playing their employable players. The game is often between cutdown candidates and, with that in mind, we must temper the highlights that we see. Especially when a key prospect is taking down the likes of Folarin Orimolade. Orimolade might be a player with a fine future, but he is currently listed as the Rams' 15th linebacker (most teams keep between 6-8) and was an undrafted free agent this past spring out of Dartmouth. Again, that doesn't mean that he won't play in this league, but rather that the odds are stacked highly against him. The point to this is that this is like the NBA Summer League. It is great to watch and promising, but we should wait to get too overly excited for when Rico Gathers takes someone like Landon Collins down the seam like this on Sunday night in Week 1.
And yet, again, I am pretty fired up to see Gathers run by Orimolade in this man-coverage matchup and score his 2nd long touchdown pass reception in 2 weeks. I don't care if it is Folarin Orimolade.
As you can see, the Cowboys are in 12 personnel. Two tight ends to the left, 2 wide receivers to the right. Now, about 98% of the time, when you are in this grouping and formation, you will get man coverage (12 personnel says you are likely running the ball - so the front will be stacked) with a single high safety. In almost every case, that safety will shade to the WR side because of the threats of speed and dangerous results, while a TE usually can't do much damage down the field.
This is where Rico Gathers can offer something that most tight ends cannot, and will remind us of a younger Jason Witten and the reason the Cowboys thought that Martellus Bennett (and Anthony Fasano and Gavin Escobar) was worth a 2nd-round pick. Remember, 12 personnel says to the defense that runs are likely and that you better have the proper personnel on the field. In fact, you are tempted to bring on linebackers because the Cowboys in 12 will have as many as 7 run blockers on the field, so if you counter with nickel, you are outmanned up front.
This is also why Rico Gathers can get better and better as he learns to run block. As many have mentioned, he doesn't ever have to be great at this task (Jimmy Graham never learned), but the better he is at it, the easier his life gets. If he can run block - even a little, then you force the defense to respect the Cowboys offense as Dak Prescott would simply see how his tight ends are being defended in presnap and counter with audibles. If Witten and Gathers have "bigs" (LBs) on them, they run verticals. If Witten and Gathers have "littles" on them (DBs), then you audible into a run and go right at them.
In this case, the Rams were determined to go with the traditional matchups. Our LB should be able to defend your TE. It is preseason, they are just getting everyone work, and who is Rico Gathers, anyway?
The result was a simple pitch and catch from Cooper Rush to Gathers in a play that was painfully simple.
If he is going to show that he can catch the ball easily with his hands and then finish plays, the Cowboys will have found a future piece that can be a matchup issue today.
Remember last week when they defended him with a DB?
This is either the start of something big, or we can look back at August 2017 as the time we lost our minds about a project basketball player who showed his ability for one shining moment.
But, man, he is looking like a real piece to have on the chess board moving forward. And since I had to look, the number of times Martellus Bennett caught a 25-yard (or more) touchdown as a Dallas Cowboy? Twice. Both in 2008. Once from Brad Johnson at the end of a blowout loss in St. Louis and just one from Tony Romo (in 4 years) in Washington that same rookie year. Gathers has 2 in 2 weeks, albeit both in exhibitions.
Similarly, Taco Charlton flashed a few times on Saturday night as a weak-side defensive end against a fellow named Pace Murphy. Charlton looked quite solid and got the hype train back on his side with a sack where Murphy badly overset and left Charlton a nice inside lane, despite barely making contact with his left hand. Murphy was, indeed, undrafted, but actually did make the Rams last year and played 15 snaps in the final 2 weeks of the season. I believe this demonstrates that tackle is about the shallowest pool in the NFL neighborhood as most teams have backups who they desperately hope never have to play because they simply cannot deal with decent pass rushers. People often say that QBs are the rarest bird in that there are only about 20 on the planet who are quite good, well I will tell you the same about left tackles. There aren't many who you feel comfortable playing. Tyron Smith is the best in the world, but the drop-off is considerable and fast.
Nevertheless, Taco demonstrated some very nice athleticism and quickness that has many of us thinking his best home will be inside at DT before long (or a 3-4 DE) where he can isolate against guards and do this sort of thing on a regular basis. Again, lost in all of the noise is the fact that most people absolutely think he will make a nice impact in the NFL and for the Cowboys. He is not a prototypical edge rusher, but he has very rare traits that make you think sliding him to DT on passing downs between, say, DeMarcus Lawrence and David Irving, would be all sorts of issues for opponents.
Also, Taco should really help in stuffing rushing plays with his long arms and the ability to work through gaps into the backfield. I think Charlton needed a nice showing for his confidence and those plays will work well. But, I also believe that his ultimate home is going to be defensive tackle.
Other items to quickly touch-
Backup QB looks pretty thin right now. I have heard many talk about Kellen Moore being Scott Linehan's guy as a backup. Linehan really appreciates Moore's ability to grasp the scheme and know the game to help work with a guy like Prescott and be a "player coach" in the room. But, he also might need to play and we saw at the end of 2015 the limitations that brings to the table at the NFL level. His arm is just at the line of what is acceptable at this level if he were to have to play for a month. So, he needs to move the offense a bit here in preseason to alleviate the concerns a bit and while he was much better against the Cardinals, there is no doubt that the weak throws on Saturday against the Rams sounded the alarms again. It would be a major shock to break camp without him as the #2, but I am sure it will be an item this week.
Meanwhile, everyone is scrambling to learn more about Cooper Rush. Rush, the undrafted QB out of Central Michigan in May, certainly looked the part and put the ball in some nice spots in the 3rd quarter, which included the fine TD pass to Gathers. As is the case as usual in the preseason, it is hard to attach meaning to a QB's performance when he is playing with guys who will not be in the NFL in a month, but that is the system in place. Which brings us to our next point....
I don't know who decides which 21 players they are scratching and why Zack Martin and Travis Frederick both needed to play extensively. They both played 19 snaps - or the first 4 possessions. I am sure they were asked to play to help figure out the left guard and right tackle situations next to them, but, I don't think that is smart on August 12th. And yes, I felt that way long before Zack Martin was rolled up on from behind and a real scare was felt throughout the Cowboys' nation. That type of play has resulted in a player tearing an ACL and being lost for 12 months, so, this is not hindsight on my part. There is simply no good reason to risk Martin and Frederick into the second quarter of a meaningless game. None. See for yourself and be amazed that Martin was fine. Thank goodness.
Damontre Moore looked really impressive, and I am planning a video project for him this week. I am quite annoyed by his suspension, but also quite excited about his ability to improve this DE group. Stay tuned for his cutups this week.
Xavier Woods showed some ability in a number of spots. I don't think he is close to challenging Jeff Heath just yet, but he appears to be a more realistic threat than Kevon Frazier at this point. Both look to be keys on special teams, though. He has nice range, good instincts, and arrives with force. I like all of those traits, but he might need some patience to get there with all the assignments that are required to be the QB of the secondary up top.
The Cowboys have very little depth in their offensive line ranks that looks useful. Like I said with the Rams, this is seen all over the league in preseason. There is a massive drop-off of quality in the OL ranks after the starters in the entire NFL. College football and the spread (2 point stance) have not helped, and it shows. There just aren't enough to go around.
One thing we do know with an Ezekiel Elliott suspension is that there is very little behind him that will resemble his ability. I am rather unconvinced Darren McFadden has much to offer and will continue to assume Alfred Morris is the best of the bunch (but also know that the Cowboys feel the opposite is true, it seems). But, the events of Friday suggest that there will be plenty on the offense to worry about for the first month of the season as they try to deal with some very stellar defenses without the promise of huge running days without their stud, Elliott.
Dallas Cowboys tight end Rico Gathers (80) celebrates after scoring a touchdown with Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Andy Jones (81) in a game against the Arizona Cardinals during the first quarter of play of the Hall of Fame Game at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio on Thursday, August 3, 2017. (Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News)
The Morning After
Last night, the NFL season was launched in all its preseason glory. The Cowboys basically moved their Blue-White scrimmage to Canton, Ohio, to take on what amounts to the Arizona Cardinals, and emerged with a 20-18 win in the Hall of Fame Game. Very little that can happen on Aug. 3 should be labeled as "memorable" or "earth-shaking," but there were definitely a few items we can discuss this morning in a smaller-than-regular-season-sized "Morning After" column.
The key to the rare fifth preseason game is similar to the fourth. Do not expose any players to injury if you can avoid it. With that in mind, the Cowboys and Cardinals wisely kept pretty much any and all starters far away from this game. That doesn't mean some players of significance who needed to play a little didn't get out there, because La'el Collins and Byron Jones did just that. But, for the most part, the Cowboys were able to survive this game with all sorts of healthy scratches. As the daily news wire shows, massive injuries in the NFL happen and key players on large salaries are lost for the entire season. You simply hope the bad news is going to avoid your team.
But that doesn't mean there aren't a few talking points, so let's run through those:
-- One key to being a proper media guy is to remain cynical in the face of fans' optimism about every player who shows a flash of ability, or starts to build some chatter around the facility with regards to his position in the organization and the depth chart. I do think, though, given his moments last night, I should begin to adjust my position on Rico Gathers a bit. You should forgive someone for thinking that we have seen some "basketball guys" play tight end who may have not played college football. We have also seen some guys who did not play high school football. But have we ever seen anyone skip high school AND college football, and then do something noteworthy in the NFL? Antonio Gates is used as the template for Rico Gathers and he was an exceptional high school football player before skipping college. Jimmy Graham at least played a little bit in college. But Gathers had not played since eighth grade, when he was 13 years old. The idea that he would then become an NFL regular seems extremely far-fetched.
Yet, watching him last night would simply verify some of the flashes at camp and chatter from insiders. When he caught that wonderful touchdown throw from Kellen Moore by outsizing and outpowering the poor defensive back who was trying to deal with him, it became obvious that I need to drop some cynicism on his future and hop on the wagon that indicates the Cowboys may have something here. Furthermore, I don't see his blocking as a massive issue, though when we talk about "matchup problem" tight ends in this league, blocking is often such a low priority, anyway. Gathers may have a chance to be that "Joker" tight end who is really an issue in the red zone, where you need a linebacker on him so he doesn't win just on size, but also a defensive back because he runs past your bigger defenders. In other words, in adding Gathers and Ryan Switzer, it sure looks like the Cowboys are going to be an even more difficult team to match up with when they choose to spread out the defense and isolate the weak links. Am I sure Gathers can make the team? No. Because the numbers crunch is a real thing. But now, he has graduated, in my mind, from a "long-shot project" to a guy who is in range of the final 53. Another showing or two like that, and they will need to make room and strongly consider carrying four tight ends again. I am not close to suggesting he is able to replace Jason Witten (I have heard some of you throw that around), but he is now properly on the radar for the 2017 team photo. He was very, very impressive in many regards last night.
-- Next, let's talk about early impressions of Taco Charlton. The first impression I have is that in watching Charles Tapper and Charlton, and considering them in the same bin of "promising youngsters" who are roughly 18 months apart in age, I would say Tapper appears to be a more polished player at the moment. Neither seems ready to generate pressures and sacks on a regular basis at the NFL level yet, but I think they have two very usable pieces who are going to come in handy while they have so many defensive ends with suspension issues. Charlton is going to need some time, and as I discussed during the draft season, he was never that prototypical "edge" guy who we have been looking for at Michigan under Jim Harbaugh. Frankly, he looked like a 3-4 defensive end 5-technique to me then, and he still sort of looks like a less-lethal version of David Irving during camp. But he is here, and now it is up to Rod Marinelli to give him a role that he can be good at. He seems eager to figure things out, but his pass-rush moves have not been an issue for any counterparts so far. He switches to a spin quickly when his get-off is stopped and he just isn't that quick at this level to make it work. We shall see, but of the two, I think I am more likely to get Tapper snaps early. But, again, we have over a month of preseason games to go. Let's keep following this story. I just remain pretty sure that Charlton is not the 8-10 sacks guy early in his career you are looking for from a first-rounder after two weeks of camp.
-- Brice Butler showed some real ability last night, too. The Cowboys were prepared to lose Terrance Williams and Brice Butler last March, and the market was kind enough to the team (not so much the players, that is) that they didn't lose either. That allowed them to keep both around and have some real injury cover for the wide receiver position which, to be honest, is one of the best reasons to be bullish on the Cowboys this year. They are pretty fortified at the offensive skill positions, should a reasonable injury hit. Butler is certainly not a kid anymore, but at 27, he looks like a fine depth guy at wide receiver who has a real deep component to run past corners and spring a big play on occasion.
-- Finally, I can't wait to really study Collins settling in at right tackle. This is a new spot for him and will take a lot of time, and he will be given lots of snaps in preseason. He has great ability, but most see his best fit being at guard. The problem, of course, is that they need a tackle right now and he is the best candidate to achieve at least a reasonable facsimile of Doug Free's performance. Free was no Tyron Smith, so we shouldn't expect Collins to be that, either. But the Cowboys have so much confidence in him figuring it out that they have "burned the bridges" by giving him a deal that suggests he already has proven he can do it. Playing tackle in the NFL means dealing with amazingly quick speed rushers who make a big man demonstrate elite foot quickness, so we won't truly know until Von Miller is standing over him, but I think there is reason to believe he will be OK. But Doug Free, the target of many fans for many years, may be one who is appreciated more this season than he had been for years as part of the "don't know what you got until its gone" theory.
There were certainly others who we can discuss, and will, as the days count down until their game next Saturday against the Rams at the LA Coliseum, but that will do for now. No major injuries in Canton, so induct Jerry Jones and get back to Oxnard, Calif.
