Marinelli Report - Week 6 - Packers

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2016/10/19/sturm-marinelli-report-perfect-plan-take-packers

Marinelli Report

Today's topic, as we discuss defense, revolves around the simple question of: "How many points is a reasonable amount to allow in a game?"

It is important to remember that this is a league in which the margins are very close and every opponent has some exceptional talent on it. If you want a level of football where you play several games against completely incompetent opponents, the NFL isn't for you. This is the highest level of the sport and therefore, even the worst teams have many unreal football players on it. Parity. It is what this league is founded upon.

And for that reason, expectation levels for any defensive coordinator need to remain in the realm of reasonable rather than fantasy. Of course, you would prefer to give up no yards and no points, but let's understand that most of the time, even the poor teams are able to eat up statistics.

The NFL has a pretty constant "average points per game per team" number in the past several seasons. It sits at about 23 points per team.

So, as a defense in this league -- especially a defense that is in Dallas and doesn't seem to ever get its fair share of resources (premium draft picks, salary cap space) -- you are just competing against that number. In other words, you realize that having the best defense in the league is not reasonable without investment. But, the plan on this side of the ball has always been -- to steal a phrase that I like -- "trying to get to average."

If you want to be a top team in this league and in the mix for a Super Bowl every January, I would contend that very rarely does a team come along that is "top five" in offense and defense. If there is, it is usually for just a flash. Instead, you want to get one side of the ball to "elite" and the other side to league average. This seems to put you in the mix for a Super Bowl.

With that in mind, the Cowboys are trying to get under that 23-points-per-game barrier. And they have done a nice job of it with Rod Marinelli. You can tell it is easier when the offense is what it was advertised to be (elite). But this season the level has dropped substantially, in a good direction, and after two weeks of facing supposed playoff offenses -- to which they allowed 30 points over two games -- optimism is bubbling over.

So the line is 23 points per game. That is league average for any offense to score, or for any defense to allow. It is early, but getting below 23 has never been easy, and when they have, they barely did so. I cannot stress how impressive the first six weeks have been for this defense. In fact, the season high they have allowed was 23 points to Washington. Nobody has surpassed 23 points even once against Marinelli's crew. Nobody!

Now let's look at it from a perspective of what I would consider "great games." These are games in which you do not allow 21 -- games in which the Dallas defense allowed 20 points or fewer.

Those are all full seasons, you guys (except this year). This year is just through six games! They have 10 games to go. They have allowed 20 points or fewer in five of six games. They have really done well in the bend-but-don't-break defense and pursuit of average. For now, they have flown by average to a point where we'd better start asking whether their plan has really worked brilliantly.

And for that plan to work, they needed big performances from guys you didn't expect and that the league knew nothing about.

Sunday was all about those guys. Look at the names on the splash chart. By the way, the pure number of splashes is the highest since I started keeping this stat -- 21 splash plays! They got to 20 splashes three different times in 2014, but that flurry at the end of this game, when they kept stripping the ball loose, put them in a new place.

WEEK 6 SPLASH PLAYS

Anthony Brown, Terrell McClain and David Irving? Who are these guys? Ryan Davis? Benson Mayowa? Is this a no-name defense, or what? I could see it if they were led by Sean Lee and DeMarcus Lawrence or Tyrone Crawford. Instead, many of the biggest plays from this big day at Lambeau Field were made by guys making a million dollars a year or less. Bargain-basement production surely is the key to figuring out how to skin a cat with no resources.

It is also interesting to see how many splashes I had to share between two guys. I try to avoid this, but on many occasions Sunday, two guys arrived at the exact same time on players. In other words, Rod continues to get all these guys to fly to the ball and make plays.

Let's look at the tape, coach:

This is Anthony Brown. Hopefully you are up to speed with his fine work by now, but he is their sixth-round pick out of Purdue (one of several sixth-rounders, actually). This guy has had to fill in for Orlando Scandrick almost every week this season, and given that you haven't seen him make too many mistakes, we should be happy. Now he is getting confident and showing off one of his best attributes -- tackling. That's Randall Cobb in the open field.

Here is Jordy Nelson trying to get to the sticks on third down. Also, notice the three-man rush from the Cowboys. The Packers hate this. Rodgers has all day but is being kept in the pocket. Eight players in zones trying to give him nowhere to go.

Here is Anthony Brown one more time. Not sure what the lead blocker is doing here as he runs by Brown on his way to nowhere, but Brown closes fast and gets a big tackle for a loss. Starting to wonder if this is the best draft class in decades around here. And we haven't even seen Jaylon Smith yet.

There's my favorite defensive player these days. Terrell McClain has just been a pleasure this season. So much so, that I may try to get him signed during the bye week because he already has earned an extension from me. Look at that. He plays it like a linebacker, scraping to the play and then putting a form tackle on Eddie Lacy. Gracious.

Look at McClain blow up the center here and score another tackle for loss. Such a great combination of strength and quickness.

Finally, my other offseason delight was David Irving. I hope you read this during training camp. I still don't know why his snap totals are so low. But, they won't be able to keep them down if he keeps taking over games like this. He just turned 23. And he was unreal in this game with six splashes. Yes, he was given double credit if you can strip a fumble and then recover it.

He is such an active and massive body. And look at him go -- he strips Rodgers, then goes and gets it out of the pile. Awesome stuff, No. 95. And did you see they had Nos. 97 and 95 together inside on that play?

And this is the three-man rush again. But, Irving still gets to the ball to knock it loose. Nobody is open again. This is a coverage sack and the ball comes out.

Those three players -- Brown, McClain and Irving will make a total of $2.1 million combined this year. In a league where Jeff Heath makes $1.9 million, I would say there is some value in that trio.

WEEKLY DATA BOX

I realize the Cowboys might have just had to hand the Packers the rope and they would fashion their own noose, but Dallas should not apologize for an awesome four-takeaway performance in which it did not allow Green Bay into the end zone until it was too late and held it under 400 yards and 20 points at Lambeau.

AARON RODGERS THROW CHART

Those blue dots on the right were the constant swing passes to safety valves that Rodgers had to continuously settle for, most of them as the Cowboys decided to drop deep into coverage to simply allow things underneath. Rodgers did miss some throws down the field, but the plan was perfect.

And here it is. Give him time, but no options -- here is how Marinelli deployed his pass rushers:

See, don't rush him. Frustrate him with no open spots to throw. Keep him in the pocket with a spy, but flood the zones and make him make perfect throws. Some times, Rodgers can. Right now, he obviously cannot.

SEASON SPLASH TOTALS - AFTER 6 WEEKS

If you expected the leaderboard to look like this, you should gamble. I never imagined it would materialize like this.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Many of the statistics should remind us to remain suspicious about whether this model is sustainable. To be honest, we don't fully know how much of their early success is completely "situation-reliant" and a testament to the offense's play right now.

The Cowboys are 23rd in yards per rush allowed and 20th in yards per pass; 23rd in sacks per attempt and 29th on third downs.  

A lot of things need to improve and can improve. At the same time, it seems a story is worth telling about this first stretch for the defense beyond just the offense being so great. If you watch the games, it is worth seeing that they fly to the ball and seem to make opposing offenses frustrated.

Honestly, we will need to see more before we offer any proclamations, but they are off to quite a start with a lot of unknown players stepping up.

Marinelli Report - Week 2 - Washington

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Once we establish that this is the NFL and both teams are really good and all of these games are going to be close from week to week, we cut through the noise and get down to the name of the game.

The name of the game in the NFL is: "Who is going to make that play at that moment to win this game?" That is how defense is played. Every team is going to give up between 300-400 yards most weeks, 20-24 points and several highlights. The teams are too good. The players are too talented. There are almost no "clean sheets" in the NFL. The rules are geared toward the offense and the league wants excitement. They don't want a 3-0 game. They want 28-27.

That isn't to say the Cowboys have a great defense. They don't. We all know it, and compared to league averages, the Cowboys must do better in nearly every category from what we've seen.

But we are seeing guys battle hard. We are seeing them push to make plays. And the only difference between Weeks 1 and 2 from a defensive standpoint -- the difference between winning and losing -- is that they were able to make a few plays in the fourth quarter and in the red zone.

And that is where I think we should start today:

Here, the Redskins have a chance to take a 10-point lead with a touchdown in the fourth quarter. That seems pretty big against a young quarterback like Dak Prescott. So this play, on 3rd-and-6, has a chance to either put the game in a great spot, settle for a field goal to put you up by six, or maybe, Barry Church can make a play.

There is a lot to look at here. First, see Church and Jones in the middle of the field playing safety. Jones is the extra guy on the left and Church is watching the other side. I am pretty sure that Cousins expects Church to help Sean Lee on Jordan Reed. Everyone is thinking the big tight end is the target, but Church sees Garcon in the back of the end zone and heads over there from the weak side. I love sending pressure here, but Rod Marinelli predictably does not. And because of that, he has a weak-side obstacle who is able to get in the passing lane. Dropping seven always allows this possibility and when it works, it looks brilliant. Look how mad Garcon is at Cousins for not seeing that. Huge play.

The above play is from the next drive. There is 2:38 left in the game and the Redskins are now down 27-23, facing a 3rd-and-1.

They simply want to move the chains here, so they want to go get that one yard. And out of nowhere, from the far side into the gap, is Sean Lee with his trademark run stuff. This angle doesn't do the speed of impact justice, but this was huge.

So they stonewall them and set up 4th-and-1 out of the two-minute warning.

Cover 1, rat in the hole. This means as opposed to man coverage with two safeties high, you switch a safety for a linebacker and have one deep, one shallow. The shallow man is the linebacker, Durant, and this is one of Marinelli's go-to coverages. Durant must carry the first man and then read the eyes of the quarterback to step in and make a play in the passing lane, because again, the target is Garcon and he can get Claiborne on the slant with ease. But Durant knows that is the read, and he gets in on it.

Here you can really see Durant mirroring Cousins. This reminds me of Rolando McClain's pick-six last year in Miami.

This is clearly something that a nice middle linebacker better be able to do here, and Durant got it done to stop the Redskins.  

And then, with a little time left, Washington had one final chance.

So what team doesn't want to unleash their best pass-rush group? And what team would ever answer that question by sending out four defensive tackles? The Cowboys, of course. And Tyrone Crawford turns the corner and smashes Cousins for a huge sack.

I kind of wonder, if this keeps looking like this, if No. 98 is best played at the left defensive end spot with Maliek Collins and Terrell McClain inside and DeMarcus Lawrence on the other side. Weird to do that with that contract on Crawford, but Collins looks OK at 3-tech at times, and McClain (as you will see below) may be the best player right now on this front.

WEEKLY DATA 

There is no question Kirk Cousins missed throws -- or he might have rolled up 400 or 500 yards passing -- and the Cowboys were fortunate. But all of those stops in the red zone should be credited to Dallas and those plays in the fourth quarter are what this game is all about.

Look, they need better players, but all they can do for now is fight to make a play. That was good enough in Washington.

SPLASH PLAYS

You have already seen a good number of these splash plays above, but we should not forget several of the plays earlier in the game when defenders were able to make a significant difference with their efforts.

In particular, I thought David Irving continues to flash in smaller doses, Byron Jones might have made the unsung play of the game for running down Josh Doctson after Brandon Carr busted on a coverage miscue. He didn't get a splash for that (I can't do it on a 57-yard gain), but Jones did something there that resulted in zero points because of Church's interception moments later. That is something that should not be forgotten when we evaluate the play of No. 31. I think he has been pretty solid -- as I expected.

KIRK COUSINS THROW CHART

We knew Kirk Cousins was not a franchise quarterback based on evidence before Sunday -- but it just solidified it more as he again missed too many open receivers, and you can see how his performance relies on the long ball and not throws into tight spaces. He is a third-down dump-off artist who uses play action to hit bombs over the top. If he connects, he is great, but it is not something to bet upon over a six-year contract. They took several shots and he just missed guys. The Cowboys likely lose against a better quarterback on Sunday. But, as we have said, this season's schedule is not filled with very many good quarterbacks.  

SEASON SPLASHES 

And finally, here is the season total (through a mere two weeks) of splash plays. As you can see, there are some unfamiliar names at the top of the leaderboard, but things often normalize as we go.

That said, I am here to say that Terrell McClain is showing me things that are very impressive and while he has always been a player who is very dependent on staying healthy, I think we should give him a little time and attention.

If you can believe it, the Cowboys signed him in the spring of 2014 to a three-year deal worth a little over $3 million. You may be wondering why you haven't seen much since and, again, it goes back to health. In 2014, he was a depth guy who got banged up and played about 300 snaps. Then, last year, he was lost for the season in Week 2 at Philadelphia and played just 45 snaps -- a number he has already surpassed. He already has six splash plays this year and is close to the nine splashes he had in 2014 and 2015 combined.

Let's prove how great he has been through two weeks:

Big No. 97 is right on the nose here, where the center tries to get a piece but really doesn't. The right guard has no leverage and McClain devours the running back in the hole.

Here he deals with a direct double team and stands his ground until the running back is in his grasp. Then he finishes the play himself. Goodness gracious, man.

I appreciate all that Nick Hayden did (including staying healthy), but there is no substitute for the quickness like this on a man this size. A true 300-pound dancing bear.

Here, McClain gets down that line and makes the play himself. A play-making 1-technique? Is this real?

Now in the other direction he goes. I won't even try to describe how good this is for a big man chasing the play down and waiting for the running back to cut back.

You want a little pass rush from your nose? How about a three-man rush where he flushes the pocket after battling through a triple team?

Let's see him stay healthy, but if the Cowboys keep getting this from the inside, they've got something very nice. I had no idea he could keep Cedric Thornton on the sideline, but this is really great stuff.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

They continue to try treading water until DeMarcus Lawrence gives them a real edge presence in Week 5. Until then, they get to take on Brian Hoyer and Blaine Gabbert. You would like to think the defense can stand up to those two tests and put the team in a position to win.

More importantly, they are starting to make us think they can deal with stopping the run -- although that fourth quarter against New York remains a disconcerting mystery.

Some bad, but the game ended with some big plays. I am not sure you can ask for too much more from this defense at the moment. But that may be good enough to get a few more early wins.