Always the horses, seldom the jockey...
Daily Commentary on the Dallas Sports Scene - By Bob Sturm - Sportsradio 1310, The Ticket - The Athletic Dallas - The Athletic - Bob Sturm
Before we go too far into today's project, please know that everybody is aware that lists don't mean anything in sports beyond serving as talking points. They are lists. And either they are a media guy's opinion or a coach's opinion or someone else's opinion. Opinions kill time in sports, but we have scoreboards that truly matter. We all know this and we all get it.
Fine.
However, during the summer months, time does need to be killed and the NFL Network has a worthy time-killer that involves polling the league's players to come up with an annual list of the Top 100 players in the league. The players vote for their top 20 and from the results of those countless returned ballots, they do the math and spit out who is at the top. In a way, it is a popularity contest, but I do want to know who the players think is the best. It also is a poll dominated by recency bias, so a 4-12 Cowboys team will not represent the same way a 12-4 Cowboys team would the year before.
That said, during my summer break, I took careful notes so we could have a day on the blog to visit about this. And today is that day.
The Cowboys only had two players crack the Top 100 in 2016, after putting five on the list in 2015. They are:
No. 51, WR Dez Bryant (No. 15 last year)
Obviously hurt by being hurt, Dez slips down to being the seventh-ranked wide receiver in the league by his peers.
No. 42, LT Tyron Smith (No. 36 last year)
Tyron is in essentially the same spot, where he fits as the second-rated tackle and third-ranked offensive lineman overall behind just Joe Thomas and Marshal Yanda.
Those who dropped off the list from last year include Tony Romo (No. 34 last year), Jason Witten (No. 93) and DeMarco Murray (No. 4 when he was a Cowboy on last summer's list). In the case of Romo, you would certainly hope that is all based on the pessimism around his health and his upside moving forward. He is behind 15 different quarterbacks rated on this list -- many of whom you would be offended by if someone claimed they were better than Tony.
Again, it is just a list. But I enjoy looking at it every year.
Now, another exercise I go through to prepare for the season is looking at the Cowboys' schedule as it pertains to the Top 100 list. In other words, who will they be facing each week from the list? Here we go:
Week 1 -- New York Giants
No. 10, WR Odell Beckham; No. 47, QB Eli Manning
Week 2 -- at Washington
No. 11, CB Josh Norman; No. 45, T Trent Williams; No. 77, TE Jordan Reed; No. 85, QB Kirk Cousins
Week 3 -- Chicago
None.
Week 4 -- at San Francisco
No. 61, LB Navorro Bowman
Week 5 -- Cincinnati
No. 16, WR AJ Green; No. 29, DT Geno Atkins; No. 35, QB Andy Dalton; No. 44, TE Tyler Eifert; No. 67, T Andre Whitworth; No. 70, DE Carlos Dunlap
No. 4, WR Antonio Brown; No. 21, QB Ben Roethlisberger; No. 41, Le'Veon Bell; No. 88, DE Cameron Heyward
Week 11 -- Baltimore
No. 37, G Marshall Yanda
Week 12 -- Washington
No. 11, CB Josh Norman; No. 45, T Trent Williams; No. 77, TE Jordan Reed; No. 85, QB Kirk Cousins
Week 13 -- Minnesota
No. 5, RB Adrian Peterson; No. 73, S Harrison Smith; No. 77, DT Linval Joseph
Week 14 -- at New York Giants
No. 10, WR Odell Beckham; No. 47, QB Eli Manning
Week 15 -- Tampa Bay
No. 53, LB Lavante David; No. 63, DT Gerald McCoy
Week 16 -- Detroit
No. 43, DE Ezekiel Ansah
Week 17 -- at Philadelphia
No. 49, DT Fletcher Cox
It's really a manageable schedule if you look at it carefully. If the average NFL team should have three Top 100 players, then the Cowboys only play three teams that are above that average: The Bengals, the Steelers and the Redskins.
They also avoid the three NFC Powers: Carolina, Arizona and Seattle.
They do, for what it is worth, face a fair number of Top 100 QBs: Eli Manning and Kirk Cousins twice, Andy Dalton, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger. But that's assuming you think Cousins is a legit Top 100 guy. I suspect that is an example of that pesky recency bias there.
Anyway, that is this morning's exercise of examining the season through the lens of the Top 100 list.
I really love training camp. I do. It gets me in the football mood and tells me stories I didn't know. I love to ponder the difficulty of making the NFL. You simply cannot understand the odds against these men playing football for a living. The math doesn't work out. The dreams are many -- the realized dreams are few.
But, that journey is what really gets me. I love to see how many different roads there are to pro football. We are spoiled to have one of the most unlikely stories right in front of our face with Tony Romo, having been pretty much being ignored in college recruiting and then again on draft day, only to start as an NFL quarterback at a high level for a decade. At times, we overlook how insanely improbable that story really is.
For every Romo, there are 1,000 players who would love to be the next. Many of them don't even make it to a training camp, but a chosen few survive and advance long enough to the second week in August. We have one in the 2016 camp who not only appears poised to make the team, but may even play meaningful snaps at quarterback for a team that fancies itself the team to beat in the NFC East. Because as of this moment in time, their backup quarterback appears to be Jameill Showers.
Showers is 24 years old for another month. He turns 25 on Sept. 6 -- five days before the Cowboys open the season against the Giants. He has had a long and winding road from Killeen to Texas A&M to UTEP to covering punts last year for the Cowboys. He is a dual-threat quarterback, but he really doesn't have a resume with success at the college level of doing great things. Rather, he is a quarterback who appears to be capable of two things: flash special traits and seem coachable. Both are vital as he does check many boxes for "today's quarterback." In fact, you can throw a rock and hit someone who has compared his traits on some level to Russell Wilson. This, of course, is a dangerous game because dozens of guys have been compared to Wilson, and yet I am not sure another Wilson has emerged from that pile. But, the search continues.
Regardless, because the Cowboys ignored my wishes in January of "addressing and fixing" the backup quarterback spot, instead deciding that Kellen Moore was their guy at QB2 and because Moore then broke his leg last week, the team must decide quickly whether or not Showers can be that guy. If we are all honest with ourselves, we must analyze this while remembering that just seven days ago, Showers seemed like an extreme long shot to make the team. Rookie Dak Prescott is almost clearly the No. 3 quarterback who will hopefully be "redshirted" this year (practice, develop, but don't play) and that left Moore and Showers to "compete" for the second spot, even though many Cowboys people refer to Moore as "Scott Linehan's son." In other words, it seemed unlikely that Showers was going to have a chance unless something crazy happened. Well, something crazy did happen: Moore broke his leg.
I have been asked to give my opinions of Showers by many readers, so I thought this morning I would try to show you with video what the Cowboys are dealing with here. He is very interesting to watch because his highs are pretty high and his lows are pretty low. In other words, this is a text-book project quarterback. And that means a few things. ... 1) You generally only want one project at a time and if Prescott is your guy, then you are choosing a guy 25 months younger and one with a far more decorated college resume. That isn't to say Prescott is a better quarterback right now, because he isn't. But, it is to say that if you had to choose one to have a chance to be Romo's successor, I assume most NFL minds would bet on Prescott over Showers with the information available. ... 2) Jason Garrett has chosen backup quarterbacks through the years who are safe and robotic in their play -- not improvisational players who may make an impulse decision that could go the other direction for a touchdown.
The other thing I want to point out is that the video I am using is from the 2015 preseason. For whatever reason, Showers only played sparingly. Dustin Vaughan was the guy they wanted to see play 12 months ago and Vaughan played 68 percent of the offensive series. Romo played 12 percent, Brandon Weeden played another eight percent, and that left just six series for Showers. And each of those series were in the fourth quarters when he had hideous pass protection, poor receivers and almost no chance.
So, on Saturday in Los Angeles, Showers may have a chance to play with better players in a more important spot. He also has now been with the Cowboys a full year to learn and absorb. So, we may be looking at a much better player now. But I can only go on what is already on film. These 17 videos are all from his work last preseason.
Let's get started.
This is what you will see all the time with Showers. They love this roll-out stuff with a tight end underneath that puts a linebacker in a bind. If you drop to cover the tight end (Geoff Swaim), Showers keeps it and runs. If you go to Showers, he then pops the ball over the top to the tight end in space. It's "dual-threat 101," and Showers can do this well to his right and sometimes to his left. It is always paired with a zone run to the left to bootleg off of.
This is what makes him so interesting. He is really good when protection breaks down. In fact, he will definitely be one of those quarterbacks who is accused of leaving the pocket too early sometimes. But you see why -- in the open field, he has the chance to be one of the fastest guys on the field in when scramble mode.
Here he zips a slant right on the money. He usually does this. Good ball location on the slant, but, of course, the throw is short and a high-percentage one.
Here is another one. Again, his receivers were not helping him. That is the danger in reading preseason stat lines. So much is dependent on the quality of his help. There is nothing more he can do here.
This is the one worth looking at. He can really make "the NFL throw." The deep out. The Romo 18-yard rope to the sideline. It is the true measure of arm strength. He has a strong arm. But, two things make this the throw one that will get him in trouble. ... 1) The location. You can't miss to the inside. This brings the corner back into the play and he can drive on the ball. ... 2) The timing. Again, in man coverage, corners are jumping this. You will see below that he flirts with disaster on this route quite a bit. He also stares it down.
Let's jump ahead to the Minnesota game. He played so little here and not at all against Houston. I really don't know why they needed 34 series to figure out Dustin Vaughan, but it cost Showers lots and lots of reps. Anyway, above is that roll-out again. You can see that it's the calling card for the play-calling for Showers. Easy completion to start the drive.
And, another look at his escapability. He was dealing with Laurence Gibson, R.J. Dill, and Darion Weems as his tackles for most of the preseason, and none of them could pass protect at all. He was running for his life.
OK, now to the San Francisco game, where you really saw his tools. ...
We certainly want to be careful with this again. Another dangerous throw. See the stare-down, see the inside ball placement, and see the corner being just as close to the throw as the receiver. This league is too good to flirt with those throws unless they are on time.
Above, find the throw that will cause a coaching staff to want to move on to the next guy. The quarterback thinks he has man, but another defender sees the plan and steps right in to give the Cowboys' sideline a heart attack. Danger! Danger!
But, those feet! Blitzer is untouched and look at Showers smoothly make him miss and head down the field. He is the type of talent you will want to spy, because you aren't catching him in the open field.
Fourth-and-15, Showers has to make a perfect throw. He gets man coverage underneath and that leaves him and his man, Swaim, to make some magic. And they did. Many dual-threat quarterbacks excel at man coverage and can really get comfortable. But, this is a big-league throw.
Same play, different angle. You could argue this is the play that his defenders always think about when they wonder if he is the guy. Is this repeatable, or is this you striping that perfect drive down the middle that keeps you coming back to the golf course?
Here he finds Swaim again. Great chemistry there and it shows Swaim can catch the ball in many different ways. Again, no issue at all with the touch on his throw.
I just wanted to show this because it is very "Russell Wilson." We always hear about how hand size can save some fumbles -- look at this blind-side hit, but the ball stays in his hands. Pretty impressive hand strength and size to not lose the ball on that hit that he didn't know was coming. And, man, R.J. Dill can't do much in pass pro.
Here is that dangerous throw again. This time, not much velocity, no real ball placement, and the stare-down cost you an interception.
High-percentage slant inside and he sets and throws with confidence. Easy pitch-and-catch here.
And, finally, the play that makes you want to see more on Saturday -- his Romo impression in the red zone where he waits for the play to open up, rolls out, takes a hit right in the mouth and delivers a throw for a touchdown. This is a play that you love to know your quarterback is capable of. He is great in Phase 2 of each play (the improvisational spots where the play breaks down). The question will be: How good can he be in Phase 1 (the actual design of the play)?
Based on these plays, I like Showers. I want to see more. But, I also see him as a guy who will make a few throws that will drive you crazy, as corners are trying to undercut his throws.
Garrett always has enjoyed "Captain Check-down" as his backup, and Showers doesn't seem to be that guy at all. Instead, he is perhaps guilty of some irrational confidence at times, which I find admirable for a guy trying to make the league, but seems to be counter to the profile around here.
I know in this hot-take world, I am either supposed to declare him a bum or the next Romo, but most of the time, it is very complicated. His play this preseason will determine the path. He has faults, but he also has some very interesting strengths.
But for Showers, the news is good. He has the most priceless commodity in sports in his favor right now -- opportunity. Now, if he takes it well and puts a few solid weeks together, he could be a No. 2 quarterback in a league that completely ignored him. And from there, the path can lead almost anywhere.
Well, it is Friday in Oxnard. The weather is great, the sun is out, and the football continues. There is actually NFL Football this weekend and we will say that now every weekend from now until right before Valentine's Day. I hope that makes you as happy as it does me.
That said, there are a number of things on your mind. I have been waiting to write something for today that actually will answer many of your questions at the same time. This may not be a traditional mail-bag, but I hope it is helpful to many of you that seem to all be wondering about the same basic items:
Q: What's the thing or things you've seen so far in camp that should be encouraging for Cowboys fans?
Q: Who do you really have your eyes on here that we may not know about?
Q: What roster battles are you interested in as you attend the camp?
Q: Could Jameill Showers be legit? Saw enough positive tweets yesterday that I'm almost excited to watch him again in the preseason.
Q: Give us some good news from camp after Kellen Moore downer. Who's impressing you so far?
As you can see, aside from the "who are we going to trade for to back-up Tony Romo" (I don't see anything out there that gets me fired up) questions and the "will Randy Gregory and or Rolando McClain ever be seen again" (Yes on Gregory, No on McClain) questions, everyone else wants to hear about some names down the roster who may emerge in 2016 or soon enough.
So, today, in this mailbag, I want to give you the names that have me interested as I look around this 2-Deep (or in training camp, I guess it is more like a 4-Deep). I have been to every practice since I have arrived, making notes and talking to my people, and here is my list of various names that are on my mind in no particular order:
QB Jameill Showers - This one is easy. I promise, since last preseason, he has had a group of people in the organization that have been advocating for him. He is very talented and very mentally prepared to do what this team wants. He is a bit short and he does lose the accuracy when he is on the move. But, his skill set is not that far from Dak Prescott's, aside from what appears to be a bit more confident and sure of where everything is and will be. Now, maybe, that equalizes when Prescott gets more comfortable. But, maybe, Showers has a bit more ability to slow things down in his head as everything is flying around. Either way, many of us were worried that Showers was not going to get consideration for the roster and now he has every chance. I have seen nothing that scares me, really, and while the Romo '04 comparisons are likely a bit strong, he has that same plan to make people see him when he is playing. I like him a lot and I hope he plays well in the preseason games to continue to earn his recognition.
DE David Irving - I planned on writing up his 2015 flashes when I got the chance, because I really liked what he showed in limited work last year. But, I think his body looks even leaner and his arms still go forever, and I am now comfortable calling him a DE, rather than the DT he seemed to be upon arrival. Not saying he is the edge rusher you have been looking for, but now his body sure looks like it at 6'7, 285. He is a physical marvel who can play football, too. And, he is 22 years old.
FS Kavon Frazier - Here is a safety they took in the 6th round that I didn't know too much about. Central Michigan produced a big hitter who has confidence and may provide some very nice special teams play and cover in case Byron Jones needs a spell or two. I like what I see here and I am starting to use ink when I put the roster together on Kavon. He doesn't lack for self-belief. He will need to continue to learn positional discipline (don't eat the cheese), but I like his tools.
LB James Morris - I want to be careful here, because most of my James Morris information and opinions are based on his final year at Iowa before the 2014 draft. The Cowboys got Anthony Hitchens, so I sat there with Hawkeyes games everywhere and this is the LB that I really was drawn to as a Middle LB candidate. Since then, he has been on two different injured reserve lists (New England and New York Giants) and both teams decided to throw him back in the water. This should tell me to slow my roll, but if the 2013 James Morris still lives here, I think he can rise quickly to that early down middle LB that this team needs so badly. We shall see. The preseason games will hopefully reveal some things there.
RB Darius Jackson - Here is another of those 6th round picks. In fact, I have spent quite a bit of time studying and concluding that the Cowboys Day 3 drafting has been very poor for a long, long time around here. But, the four 6th rounders in 2016 seem far more promising than other years and I bet they find a few keepers here. Jackson is this marvel of a physical specimen RB who is getting quite a few reps because of all of the players who are beat up in front of him. He is nearly 225 and has run a 40 in the 4.35 range with a 41" vertical leap! He should have the ability to be a real bowling ball, but he only has one strong season at Eastern Michigan (big year for the directional Michigan schools). He also has to figure out how to make a roster with Ezekiel Elliott, Darren McFadden, and Alfred Morris on the roster. That is the bad news. The good news is that I doubt any of those three are going to provide special teams value. So, if he demonstrates in those four preseason games that he can cover kicks, I bet they keep him and maybe say goodbye to McFadden or Morris. Then, he can figure out how to help as a RB. But, his meal ticket is special teams.
DE Charles Tapper - I certainly hoped to be telling you about Benson Mayowa and Maliek Collins here, but since they have yet to really step on a practice field, let's go back to the 4th rounder, Tapper. You know his game, but I would like to indicate here that he fits pretty well. He will likely not be a dynamic pass rusher early, but I have to tell you that I am talking myself into thinking this DL is going to be ok, not because of the top-level quality, but because their 5th through 8th DL appear to be capable. Tapper is another big body who will get after it and give you what he has. I like the pick here, quite a bit. 2nd round is too much, but in the 4th? I love it.
Otherwise, on the kids, Dak Prescott is doing well in taking his time to find the reads that will be high-percentage. He has to earn a trust early, and firing the ball into coverage might generate the vines everyone wants to see, but it will quickly get the Cowboys coaches to lose faith. He is very smart to check down in the first week in August. I like Prescott and I hope they take their time. I also hope they show us some zone read stuff, but I haven't seen anything in that direction just yet. It takes time to develop a QB and I think they are smart to not rush him even with Kellen Moore's injury.
I don't have many opinions on Rico Gathers yet, other than he is enjoyable to visit with. His project time might be a lot like Prescott's. But, it seems the Cowboys are committed to it. Ezekiel Elliott is quite a sight to behold, but the real story would be if he wasn't, given his spot in the draft and his contract. He will be very good, but they are being careful with his hamstring.
Overall, as they head to preseason game 1 in eight days time, they are showing that they have many young contributors that are worth getting fired up about. And, given the situation on the roster that they have joined, chances are they will get plenty of chance to show whether they are NFL quality or not. The names above are some of those that have jumped out at me early.
It certainly seems that navigating through the first week of training camp without losing someone important is a very difficult trick for the Cowboys.
In 2013, Tyrone Crawford was knocked out for the year on one of the first days of camp. It happens and it stinks. Heck, Sean Lee was out for the year in 2014 before camp even started. OTA's got him that year. Orlando Scandrick went in 2015 a little later in camp. It happens and it stinks. But, it is also football.
This season, it will be Kellen Moore. He will be lost "several months" with a broken leg yesterday in a freak moment in camp. This is an issue, but it is likely best described as an issue that is piled on top of another issue.
Just 48 hours ago, I wrote this about the Cowboys QB2 situation: Questions abound. And, for some unknown reason, the Cowboys did not flinch and go target a better solution at backup QB for 2016. They may end up being in fine shape for down the road if Dak Prescott can be developed, but if QB1 drops in 2016, they are still seemingly as screwed as could be. I don't think Kellen Moore can win games in the big leagues, and neither does anyone who was locked in last December. Was he better than Matt Cassel or Brandon Weeden? If so, it is too fractional to get excited about. I don't know why they didn't get short-term Romo insurance, but it never came close to happening.
I realize my tune has changed in the last 10 months on Kellen Moore. At first, I was pretty interested in what the college star could do if he was given a chance. But, his chance gave me quite a bit of indigestion, to be honest. And I planned on writing that up this week with videos showing my issues, but that would likely be piling on right now. Bottom line, I was quite uncomfortable with the Cowboys view of Moore and their spot at backup QB. They seemed to ignore his very generous turnover issues of his 3 games last December (6 INTs in about 10 Quarters of action projects to a 38 INT season). Not sure if he couldn't see the safety or if his arm betrayed him, but those 6 INTs in December got me to cool my jets on his prospects in the likely event Tony Romo needed his understudy to run on to the field for 2-6 games this season.
I can't have a backup QB making rookie mistakes, especially if he supposedly knew Scott Linehan's playbook like the back of his hand.
Well, all of that flew right out the window when he was rolled up on in practice yesterday and lost for quite a while. Obviously, I was anxious to see him play in preseason and put those December concerns behind him, but now those plans have been trashed and now the Cowboys are forced to lock themselves in a room and discuss the next plan.
Let's be clear here - I want Dak Prescott to accomplish great things here. But, based on his college tape and even a few practices in Oxnard, I think it is safe to say we are talking a few years - not a few weeks - before he is prepared to play meaningful snaps around here. He has tons of interesting components to his game, but the adjustments to NFL speeds and sizes will be a hurdle for him, and his accuracy will need to be improved. We knew that. That is why he lasted so long in the draft. He was not picked for 2016.
Jameill Showers is the one who may surprise you a bit. I have been told by a few on the inside of the organization that he may be the 2nd best QB on the team entering camp. But, he also is considered the distant #4th by the coaching staff because of his pedigree. Linehan loved Kellen Moore and the personnel people thought Showers was better. Not suggesting this was the basis for a war at Valley Ranch/Frisco, but that feeling absolutely existed on some level. So now, is this the lifeline for Showers? Is this the Quincy getting cut that saved Tony Romo's career? Way too early to say, but he will get some looks for sure. 5 days ago, Jason Garrett made it sound like Showers was not a priority. Perhaps, that is still true, but at least he will get his turn to be debated today.
And now, we all arrive back at the most obvious fit all off-season. Nick Foles is not a world-beater at QB1. But, it sure seems like he would be the type to be a fine backup who might need to play a bit. He has 35 professional starts and is 27 years old. He can run an offense and take care of the football. I would have called for him in March, April, May, June, and July. Jerry Jones disagreed with me, but now in August with Moore out of the picture, it seems like Foles has leverage when the Cowboys call today.
There are a number of other names out there, but I am pretty sure he has the best chance to really fix something better than it was 48 hours ago. There is no doubt in my mind that Nick Foles is a superior QB to Kellen Moore, Brandon Weeden, and Matt Cassel.
There is also no doubt that he can now ask for twice as much as he would have before Moore broke his leg. And the Cowboys can now spend that cap space that they had earmarked for Dwight Freeney. There lack of interest in him was bizarre, but now the money will be helpful to fix QB2.
This is not a disaster. This was an issue and this forces the Cowboys to fix it. Obviously, we wish Moore the best, but I think the Cowboys needed to put more into QB2, and now, hopefully they will.
Being top of the league in a certain statistic is generally a joyous occasion to celebrate. Being the best at something in a 32-team league is difficult to accomplish - in most cases. But, in today's study, it would be nice to leave it someone else.
This is a chart that shows the rolling 3-year league standings for NFL suspensions. You would rather not win this one.
Unfortunately, the Cowboys are not only leading this one, but they are rather comfortably ahead.
This is a topic of conversation because the Cowboys are entering this critical season with three hands tied behind their back as they once again enter the year with three vital pieces on the shelf for self-inflicted absences. They were suspended for either substance tests or PEDs. Unnecessary and frankly, inexcusable absences that handicap this team when they really don't need more hurdles.
The conversation came up at the annual "state of the team" address on Friday:
Reporter: Jason, what is your tolerance for acquiring players with known substance issues? Jason: I don’t want to make a blanket statement about that….each situation is different. Jerry: I can’t speak for Jason as a coach, but I can as a general manager. I don’t know of any (general manager) that doesn’t have to deal with issues of rules of the NFL and suspended players. I don’t know of any. Reporter: Would you think that other teams, though, are less likely to take chances than you guys? Jerry: I can’t speak for them now. I don’t speak for them. But, I don’t know any that haven’t dealt with these issues and that is why they are league-wide. There is a reason why this is a league-wide policy-making area, not just a team policy-making area.
This, of course, is pretty text-book Jerry deflecting the actual question. Yes, every team deals with "boys being boys". The question was specifically, do you think other teams are less likely to dance with the devil than your Dallas Cowboys?
Here are the standings for the NFL with regards to suspensions in the last 3 years (2014-2016). There are 5 months for someone to reel the Cowboys in, of course, but the lead appears rather safe:
Team
2014
2015
2016
Suspensions
Total Games Lost
1. Dallas
3
4
3
10
50
2. Baltimore
2
3
2
7
35
3. Washington
3
4
0
7
30
4. Carolina
3
3
0
6
39
5. Chicago
0
6
0
6
29
6. Denver
2
3
1
6
16
7. Indianapolis
4
1
0
5
36
8. NY Jets
4
1
5
15
9. Kansas City
3
2
0
5
14
10. Miami
3
1
0
4
26
Here is the chapter and verse for each Cowboys suspension since January of 2014:
Player
Year
Suspension
Games Lost
DE Randy Gregory
2016
Substance
4
LB Rolando McClain
2016
Substance
10
DE DeMarcus Lawrence
2016
PEDs
4
RB Joseph Randle
2015
Personal Conduct
4
OL RJ Dill
2015
PEDs
4
LB Rolando McClain
2015
Substance
4
DE Greg Hardy
2015
Personal Conduct
4
De Josh Brent
2014
Conviction Manslaughter
10
S Jakar Hamilton
2014
Substance
4
CB Orlando Scandrick
2014
Substance
2
Now, in fairness to the Cowboys, before 2014, they had done a very nice job with only 2 suspensions (Robert Brewster and Adam Pac-Man Jones) since Bill Parcells was the coach. So, they had been far below the league in violations of these types of things for years and years.
But, now the rash has returned. Why?
Well, some of it is dumb luck. You sign this many grown men in this line of work and some are going to find trouble. You could argue that they signed up for Randy Gregory and Rolando McClain knowing what they knew. You don't even have to argue that they signed up for Greg Hardy. Many of the others seem to not say anything about the team's general approach to player acquisition.
But, we do know this: Yes, Jerry, every team in the league has had at least one suspension in the last 3 years. Houston and Seattle are tied for last with just one. But, your team has had 10. That seems problematic for a number of issues, the biggest of which would be that it sabotages your own team's chances when it comes to Sundays in September.
It seems to be a very fair topic of questioning to address whether the team needs to develop a lack of tolerance for the "2nd chance" bargains that Jerry so enjoys. It seems like a short-cut that is not proving to be what you hoped it would be. Years of talking about getting the "right kind of guys" in here seems to have lost its course a bit.
We should call it what it is until it gets fixed. A big problem. When you rank #1 in suspensions and #1 in games lost to suspension by a healthy margin in both categories over a 3-year sample, that should be where you look in the mirror and commit to doing what it takes to dropping back to league average (3.7 suspensions and 16 games lost over 3 years).
Telling us "the rest of the league deals with it, too" suggests that the general manager may not see this as a very big issue at all. Which, frankly, explains quite a bit.
For me, this is training camp #19. It is honestly a part of my year that I hope never changes. I do take personal interest in the one question during the state of the team that wants to know if the new Star in Frisco will take us away from our normal field trip to Southern California. It sounds glorious? Well, it is. 2 weeks or so (for radio guys. 3 weeks for the team) in the place where it never gets much above 75 and never gets below 60 for the entire time you are here. You don't sweat much, but you will get sunburn. Beware of that.
Anyway, each year we are here, you notice and follow the same patterns. Everyone is smiling. Everyone is full of optimism. Everyone is healthy. Everyone is in the best shape of their lives. This is arguably the most followed franchise in the NFL, and it isn't far down the rankings of any franchise in all of sports. There are legions of fans that want to know if there is good news or optimism to report. Have the Cowboys finally stepped through the door as a contender again?
In late July or early August, when every player is in the healthiest state of their calendar year, the optimism is fantastic. The team looks its strongest. The holes look somewhat manageable.
Then, Jerry gets up in front of the mass media and talks about the excitement, the preparations that have been made, and the final goal of holding this franchise's 6th Lombardi Trophy at the end of the run.
It looks great from this spot. It always does. Everything is going to work out. It is August 1st and the optimism could not be higher.
The only thing to keep someone from marching right in line to receive your Kool-Aid and drink up is to recall the other 18 times you have been here, felt this tractor beam of optimism, and then watched a season where things dissolved into a pile of garbage by October. The facts are pretty staggering. If you, like me, started attending the Cowboys annual optimism camp back in 1998, then you realize that of your previous 18 stops here, just seven (39%) resulted in playoff football on any level. You realize just four have resulted four (22%) have been NFC East Divisional titles. From there, I have witnessed nine playoff games, in which two (11%) of those special years - 2009 vs Philadelphia and 2014 vs Detroit - did the team do so much as win a wildcard playoff game. And at no point in those 18 previous seasons have they even secured a spot in the final four (0%), let alone a Super Bowl (0%).
Now, this is an arbitrary sample size, for sure. Had I been born sooner and arrived in Dallas to cover the NFL sooner, perhaps I would tell you about my trips to three Super Bowls in four years, but I was only in college for those moments and watching them on television like so many of you.
But, I am 44 years old now and have been covering this team since I turned 26. I have sat on this tennis court in Oxnard, in tents in Wichita Falls, or in the press box in San Antonio from the end of July until the middle of August, every year since Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, and Dennis Rodman won another title for the Bulls in 1998. It would be their last, and that franchise's run since is only slightly better than the Cowboys.
The point is, given the historical odds are better that they miss the playoffs (61%), don't win the division (78%), and certainly don't win a playoff game (89%), you could surmise the odds of winning it all in the post Aikman/Emmitt/Irvin era is roughly impossible (100%).
That is no fun. We don't arrive at Cowboys camp as Debbie Downer. This is the time to dream and wonder what is around the next corner. For all of your pessimism, Bob, let's remember that 2014 was one of the most pessimistic training camps of them all.
2014 is the greatest thing to happen around here and the worst thing, all at the same time. It showed that you never know what joys can occur when you least suspect it (the 2014 training camp was amazingly depressing). It also showed how starved this franchise is for a little success because the number of times that year has been referenced as some sort of "Football Valhalla" is truly staggering. You would think the accomplishments would rival the 1985 Bears based on the hype, only to look closer and see it was a wildcard win against the Lions.
But, that is what feeds the optimism. And we can always use some of that to prepare for a new journey.
Unfortunately, the optimism is still caught on some major speed bumps:
1) - The team is still as tied to the health of Tony Romo as they have ever been. Now, I will grant anyone the truth that Romo is a hot button issue that nobody can agree on until it is too late. I will also grant anyone the premise that I have been on the side of massive concern since the Cowboys had to play the 2013 final game (win and you win the division and go to the playoffs) against the Eagles without him. That was the game that started the back surgeries, which was the most problematic concern with the great QB's body (let's all recall the flying knee to his back on Monday Night Football in 2014) until his collarbone snapped twice in 2015. Did his collarbone endure more stress because he was always turning to protect his back? Was he rushed back before he was healthy? Will this new Mumford procedure be the fix? Questions abound. And, for some unknown reason, the Cowboys did not flinch and go target a better solution at backup QB for 2016. They may end up being in fine shape for down the road if Dak Prescott can be developed, but if QB1 drops in 2016, they are still seemingly as screwed as could be. I don't think Kellen Moore can win games in the big leagues, and neither does anyone who was locked in last December. Was he better than Matt Cassel or Brandon Weeden? If so, it is too fractional to get excited about. I don't know why they didn't get short-term Romo insurance, but it never came close to happening.
2) - Additionally, the front office certainly did not throw resources at their problems on the defensive front. Even in that 2014, the team could not generate enough pass rush presence to take over games defensively late. That is why they drafted Randy Gregory and signed Greg Hardy last offseason. Adding those two to a full season of DeMarcus Lawrence seemed destined to fix the pass rush and the defense in general. Unfortunately, Gregory and Lawrence are suspended, Hardy has been locked out of the facility forever, and the rest of the names on board are not going to grab headlines. There appears to be some real quality with Cedric Thornton, Maliek Collins, Charles Tapper, and Benson Mayowa joining this group up front, but it will be a much quieter hype explosion until they prove their worth.
3) - Jason Garrett is still the head coach here. I like Jason Garrett. I do. And, I don't want to belabor this one, but aside from Marvin Lewis (who has a similarly odd front office situation), there are almost no modern coaches who have the length on their leash that Garrett has received in terms of time to put results on the board. He now starts his 6th full season and if I thought he had more power to run things like a proper coach should, I would be more annoyed by seeing how great other coaching hires have worked while the Cowboys keep signing up for another year of this. Unfortunately, the Cowboys coach might only be able to do so much with most of his decisions made for him, and therefore being mad at Garrett for looking powerless is likely barking at the moon. That said, I have seen enough. 1-11 without Tony Romo last year was just another example of many that this head coach could be improved upon. There are times where the coach has to make the difference for a team, and they never did that last year at all.
4) - We have no idea who the linebackers are. I love the Jaylon Smith possibilities, but with Rolando McClain out of here (I believe he has played his final snaps as a Cowboy) and with Smith a virtual long-shot to play in 2016, the Cowboys are weak at pass rush and then weak at linebacker behind it. If the plan is to have any faith in the front seven whatsoever, then they need massive years from Sean Lee and Tyrone Crawford. Both are full of that ability, but it all starts with their bodies being right and durable this season which has been an issue with both on plenty of occasions. As for linebacker, Lee, Anthony Hitchens, and who knows will be the starters. And we know linebacker is a spot that requires weekly car accident-level crashes, and therefore your starters are going to change on a regular basis, so you better have 4-5 quality LBs. The Cowboys seem to have one or two.
That said, there are some very exciting things to focus upon. Shall I detail them? Let's:
1) - The Cowboys should have the 2016 NFL Rookie of the Year. Ezekiel Elliott should be great and special and fun. He really can do it all and you would be foolish to not want all of that. I have spent months debating the wisdom of upgrading a portion of the team that was never broken and dispelling this absurd myth that Elliott will improve the defense substantially, but at the end of the proverbial day, they should have someone special at RB. In fact, you could argue that he should be much better than DeMarco Murray, to be honest. It should give everyone pause that they invested in a position that is most likely to suffer injury, but if he stays healthy, they should have a difference maker in place and you can never have too many of those.
2) - Byron Jones will play Free Safety. I cannot express how great this should be. They now will have an "above-average" free safety for their Cover 3 and Cover 1 defenses and that is such a rarity for this franchise that the full effects will shock the fan base. I am very excited about this development.
3) - Dez Bryant and Tony Romo are believed to be fully healthy. If they are and return to what they were, then the fireworks should continue on schedule. They were unstoppable - especially against man coverage - and found a way to work so many situations into their favor. There is no reason why this offense shouldn't be more dynamic because of the coverage Dez demands, and with Tony's decision making and accuracy at the top of his career, this means that no secondary will be safe once they start sneaking guys up to stop the run. This assembling of talent on the offense has massive promise, so now that it is all here together, it is time to start seeing production shoot up immediately.
4) - Orlando Scandrick is back, too! You don't know what you got until its gone, and no team should be trying to play without a slot corner in today's NFL. The Cowboys did last year and that explains why Byron Jones couldn't replace JJ Wilcox at free safety until now. Scandrick being able to get on the inside and mix it up with those pivot routes and pick plays at the line of scrimmage make everything fall into place. I think this is a much bigger development than most.
5) - Cedric Thornton, Benson Mayowa, and Alfred Morris are each very good football players that should help. In fact, the Morris signing made me think even more they didn't need a RB that high in the draft, but I digress (at least they have great injury cover if anything happens to Zeke). Thornton is going to be a very big addition inside and will help dramatically against the run and with taking control of that huddle. I really am excited about these three veteran moves.
Let's be honest. Fully healthy and present (not suspended), there is plenty to get excited about. The issues rest in being leveraged in guys who may have health considerations (or suspension considerations) and then not having a quality replacement behind them. One injury situation at QB1, Middle Linebacker, or Dez Bryant and they will have a massive catastrophe again. But, if the attrition of the NFL year begins to chip in....well, you watched 2015. You know.
We are playing football again. The Cowboys have done what they have chosen to do, and now we see if they got it right. This is a great time of year. No damage has been felt. Well, apart from the self-inflicted suspensions.
But, enough about all of that. It is time to see what happens. There will be many twists and turns that cannot be predicted. There are heroes that will emerge that nobody knows.
