Decoding Linehan - Week 10 - Baltimore

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Staff Photographer

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) and wide receiver Dez Bryant (88) celebrate a touchdown during the fourth quarter of their game against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, November 20, 2016 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. (Ashley Landis/The Dallas Morning News)

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

This season has provided us with a Cowboys offense that is officially becoming ridiculous.  When ridiculous becomes expected, then you run the risk of people not realizing what they are looking at.  I get that and I assume that is part of my job here on this weekly offensive evaluation.  To explain that this is not normal.  

 

The Cowboys in 2016 are doing things that are officially absurd.  And you can qualify it as being special "since they have a rookie QB" or you can evaluate the way that rookie QB is doing things (including pointing out where he could be doing better), but the bottom line remains the bottom line.  This offense is doing things that are historic by Cowboys standards.  And, I don't need to tell you that the Cowboys have a historical standard that is about as high as it gets.

The standard throughout the NFL for ages has been 400 yards total offense.  This is what teams aim for, in that you will seldom get there. But if you get to 400 yards, you should have 28 points on the board (or so) and you should be able to win those games.  In other words, if you get to 400 yards, the offense becomes nearly blameless, unless they had a bunch of giveaways in the process.  

This offense AVERAGES 400 yards a game,  413 to be exact.  They have had 400 yards in 8 consecutive games.  That is easily the longest streak in Cowboys history.  In fact, 8 is the most any Cowboys team has ever had in an entire season.  Here are the last 50 years of Dallas Cowboys offense, measured by 400-yard games by season:

Those other two 8-game seasons were 2009 and 2012.  In both of those years, the longest streak was 2 in a row.  In 2014, they had 5 400-yard games, with a long streak of four in a row.  In 1976, they also ran off four in a row.  And that is it.

So, now the Cowboys have had eight consecutive 400 yard games and actually average 413 per game for a season that is now 10 games old.  

Insanity.

So, now, let's ask the question, "if this is the best in Cowboys history, where does it rank in NFL history?"

Well, thankfully, somebody already did the work for me.  The fantastic Danny Kelly at the Ringer had this yesterday:

The Cowboys have now racked up 400-plus yards of offense in eight straight games, a feat matched in a single season just twice before in league history: The Broncos did it in 2013 with Peyton Manning at the helm, and the Tom Brady-led Patriots strung together eight 400-plus yard games to start the 2007 season. The difference, of course, is that those two teams were led by arguably the two best quarterbacks to ever play this sport; Manning set an NFL record with 55 touchdowns in 2013, leading Denver to a Super Bowl berth, while Brady tossed 50 scores of his own in 2007, carrying the Pats to a 16-0 regular season and an appearance in the Super Bowl.

I will allow you a moment to collect yourself after reading that.  The Cowboys can set NFL history on Thursday in this category.

WEEKLY DATA - RAVENS

Again, it is easy to get used to all of this.  They have scored less than 27 just once (24 in San Francisco) since Week 1.  They have had a passer rating under 100 just once since Week 1 (Philadelphia).  They have given the ball away more than once just one time (Green Bay).  

They are a machine right now.  Where every component is performing at a satisfactory-or-better level and they seem to just take turns getting their plays in.  

I spent some time yesterday, in the Morning After column, talking about the turning point for me in the game being when they overcame the 1st and 30 hole.  So, naturally, I wanted to check my archives to see if the Cowboys have ever had to deal with a 1st and 30 since I started charting every play back in 2008.  

I found one and it was worth revisiting.  

Week 1 in 2012.  Maybe one of the best games ever of the Tony Romo era.  They went in on Opening Night and beat the Giants on their ring ceremony night and spoiled the party.  This 1st and 30 touchdown was pretty special and, may I say, a pretty gutsy throw into a tight space.  

Miles went up and got it.  

So, they have faced a 1st and 30 before.  Still, you aren't supposed to get out of 1st and 30 very often.  

Here is one of the penalties that got them in this hole.  I say that Tyron Smith has one of the most impressive looking holds here I have ever seen.  He is so strong.  What a "Hulk Smash" that was.  

He is just entering his prime.  

Anyway, penalties are bad, but they worked their way out of the hole to face a 3rd and 6.  This is where the Cowboys went for their biggest gain of the day: 

Just like last week in Pittsburgh, when Dak sees a single-high safety shading to the wrong side, he is going to give his guy a chance to beat man-coverage.  You have to love this, although on 3rd and 6, it does come with the risk of killing a drive if you come up empty.  The Ravens are expecting something short, so they dare him to go for that and Brice Butler makes a very nice play.  Well done.  

That led to this beauty on 3rd and Goal.  The degree of difficulty to keep this drive from stalling at less than 7 points has been high the whole drive.  I think that this play here is not a play to be marginalized.  This is a very small window and he hits it.  Also, great job by Beasley to uncover at the right moment.

Nothing else is open, either.  So, 1st and 30.  Then, 3rd and 6.  Then, 3rd and goal.   He had a fantastic drive and the hit he received from CJ Mosely was just a bonus.

Tell me again how the RB is doing everything for this offense, please.  

Let's visit about the Cowboys facing the blitz.  The Ravens were a very aggressive defense and while the raw blitz numbers were less than Pittsburgh, they still had the line crowded and were throwing every confusion tactic possible at the Cowboys offense:

As you can see, the league is trying every idea they can think of to cause problems and disrupt the freight train that is speeding right at them.  That is why it is vital that you burn the hands that touch the stove.  Like the following in the 4th Quarter from Sunday as Jason Witten left the game with some sore ribs.  That put Gavin Escobar in "11 Personnel" for maybe the first time I can recall.

Ravens try a 5-man zone blitz which Prescott deciphers with ease and moves the chains.  When they blitz, there will almost always be a quick option and as Roethlisberger did so often the week before, the stick route to the tight end is usually a great option.  

End zone view:

Anyone can make that throw, right?  Well, you have a second to figure everything out.  The good QBs make complex things look easy.  

2 plays later, the Ravens are coming again.

The Cover 0 blitz!  7 man pressure leaves no time at all.  You don't have enough blockers.  

But, again, how easy is this?  Slant to Dez, he has inside leverage and now it is a matter of a proper throw and then he just has to overpower a corner to the end zone.  

Too Simple.  But, doing this consistently is not easy.  

How about Lance Dunbar again with a solid blitz pickup.  

Dak is seeing the field well and has just rolled through how many weeks in a row without even being close to an interception?  All while racking up another 300 yard day of passing.  

DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART

He started slow, but once he got going, Baltimore was out of ideas.  

PERSONNEL GROUPINGS

There is one development that is worth keeping your eyes on.  Geoff Swaim's injury has seemed to take away the 12 personnel options a bit and this might have something to do with running the ball inside recently.  That is a very valuable package and with no James Hanna or Geoff Swaim, they are left with Gavin Escobar or nothing.  In the past, they have preferred nothing of those two, but they might be willing to give the 4th year man another chance to prove he can run block a bit.  

11 Personnel is obviously doing great, but multiple options gives Linehan a much larger deck to draw from, so let's see what they do this week.  I imagine, they would want 12 personnel options in Minnesota, for sure.  

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

They have tied the all-time NFL record for consecutive 400-yard games despite using a rookie QB who was taken at pick #135.  What do you think the conclusion is?  

Keep healthy and keep trucking.

The Morning After - Cowboys 27, Ravens 17 - (9-1)

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The schedule brings a number of unexpected twists and turns that test a team from numerous angles. This sample size exposes weaknesses and requires a young team that believes it is good to prove it over and over -- to answer questions one week that were not asked before. Or, to confirm those answers as repeatable and sustainable.

If there is one description of the 2016 Cowboys that continues to flatter the two rookies at the helm, it seems that "repeatable and sustainable" is about the brightest compliment one could pay.

For that means there is no fluke to be found. There is no luck. There was no great fortune in finding yourself on the winning side nine times in a row. This certainly doesn't promise future success, but all indicators insist that success seems likely.

We may have to face it: The 2016 Dallas Cowboys are winning in ways that suggest they have put something together that may be good for a while. Because the way they win week after week does not suggest they are just riding a wave of fortune.

Yesterday, in a game when they appeared to wake up as the second quarter was being played (those noon starts are pretty early, you know), they took the ball away from their opponent and repeated the normal recipe for a Cowboys win.

This did not occur until the Cowboys' offense touched the ball for a fifth time. The first four drives were filled with a number of rather disappointing outcomes, each leading to a Cowboys punt. With a simmering quarterback situation that might have been inside the head of Dak Prescott -- but was definitely in the minds of all in attendance -- the quarterback's play was beyond spotty for those first several throws. He looked like a guy who had the weight of the world on his shoulders, and as is the case in this league, the Ravens were adding even more weight by repeatedly falling on him blitz after blitz.

The stadium grew antsy as the Ravens drove the ball down the field with repeated runs at the heart of the Cowboys' defense behind their celebrated guard Marshal Yanda, and with frustration growing on offense and vulnerability appearing on defense, the Cowboys had to play with a deficit on Sunday.

And, I guess, being down 7-0 with five minutes to go in the second quarter is what passes for a challenge to this juggernaut these days.

The Cowboys took the ball on their fifth drive with 9:31 to go in the half and with great field position at their own 48-yard line. Promptly, as if they felt the Ravens were being too generous, the offensive line quickly took two penalties. Travis Frederick made it first-and-20, and then Tyron Smith walked it back 10 more after a hold for first-and-30.

First-and-30 holes nearly are impossible to climb out of. The probability charts suggest you may consider just putting your punt team on the field and saving everyone some time.

But, in a way that would make Han Solo proud, the Cowboys weren't interested in odds. This is where their day started to turn.

First-and-30: Prescott scrambled for 12 when nobody was open.

Second-and-18: Prescott finds Dez Bryant on a skinny post for 12 more.

Third-and-6: The Ravens surely know that Prescott is looking for those sticks now, so he works a "go" route to Brice Butler over the top for the Cowboys' biggest play of the day -- 41 yards down to the Ravens' 7-yard line.  

A few plays later, Prescott again rolls out -- this time to his right -- and fires a dart to Cole Beasley at the pylon before C.J. Mosley tests his collarbone in the Ravens' bench area. Touchdown, Cowboys, and after a brief examination, everyone offers a sigh of relief for the health of the rookie quarterback.

So much of this season has been about arguing the role of the quarterback and the credit of this offense, most of which has been distributed to Ezekiel Elliott and a terrific offensive line. This isn't about removing that credit, but this is to say that most of the vital moments in a game do not come down to your ability to run the ball. It relies on your passing game and getting the weapons on your offense in space, where they can do damage. Third-and-longs. Two-minute drills. Or, in this case, first-and-30. And you can sugarcoat it all you want, but Prescott has either looked flawless in some games or has recovered from slow starts in time to bring the team back on several occasions.

And that is why the credit must be given to the rookie quarterback's ability to pass yet another test Sunday. Baltimore tried to hit him hard. The hits were hard enough that you wondered how others might have withstood the same punishment.

By the time the day was over, the running game came along and did its job of dominating the clock and erasing any last chances the Ravens might have had. The offense scored on every single drive the rest of the day following that first-and-30 conversion. It went: touchdown, field goal, touchdown, touchdown, field goal. Record: 9-1.

No short fields were offered again. The five drives totaled 359 yards and 25 minutes for 27 points. All in the final 39 minutes of the game. And you said momentum cannot be measured.

If there is one attribute we have seen from this offense, it seems to be that once the train gets rolling down the tracks, nobody slows it down. They may start poorly, but when they start feeling good about their offense, it continues until the stadium empties. How many weeks in a row do we talk about how they pound teams into a fine powder during the second halves of games?

But, let's get back to the "repeatable and sustainable" conversation. So much of this conversation about the team is wondering what its ceiling can be. Can this team actually win in the playoffs like this? Can it contend for a Super Bowl like this?

The simple answer is that there is only one way to find out.

The more nuanced answer starts with looking at how this team scores. Yes, there are some big plays that stick in our memory -- for instance, the great moments in Pittsburgh last week are front and center. But, the reason you must like the Cowboys' chances moving forward against any opponent is there is no reliance on the fireworks show from week to week.

It helps to get yards in chunks, but on Sunday, the Ravens had more explosive plays than the Cowboys, 4-2. They had more big plays of 20 yards or more, and I don't take that as a negative. I think it is great news that the Cowboys kill you with six or eight-yard chunks and that they do it in a way where the design and execution of the offense suggest someone is always open. The quarterback is not asked to pierce the eye of a needle with a throw. He has too many weapons and too much misdirection. The running back is not asked to break three tackles, for he has enough possibilities over the course of an afternoon to choose his favorite holes and take what he can. Some days there will be a chance to leave the defense in his dust, but others, like yesterday, Elliott will have just one run into the secondary for 14 yards. Everything else comes in battering-ram fashion.

The point is that if you are relying on 50-yard plays, you may not get those every week. But, if you are comfortable taking six yards per snap and running 5-8 minutes off the clock each time you step on to the field, then I think you have the basis for long-term success. Mix in a few big plays, for sure, but that must be your frosting. The cake is the way this team drives the ball and protects its defense.

That offense travels. That offense doesn't need perfect weather. Heck, that offense can survive an injury or two along the way. If you have 11 parts that are reasonably equal on an offense, and do not rely on a superstar doing special things, you have a force to be reckoned with.

And the Cowboys definitely have that.

Good teams have followed this recipe for years. The Seahawks do not rely on a series of huge plays and magic tricks to beat you. New England is different, but similar. These powers have been built on moving the chains and repeating the process until you succumb. Other teams do rely on one player carrying them with a tight-rope walk, but the repeatability is more difficult to achieve.

I think you should strongly prefer this -- the dominant effort that looks simple. Another 400-yard day with five consecutive scoring drives and very few SportsCenter-worthy highlight clips. This is death by 1,000 paper cuts. This is repeatable. Week after week, opponent after opponent.

Some weeks there will be drama, and some weeks you simply will get the ball with 8:16 to go and practically not let Baltimore touch the ball again. Your ground-and-pound has taken another victim.

Baltimore was a very good opponent that tried to make this a physical slugfest. The great news is that while it got the Cowboys' attention, they were able to push back and take over once they zeroed in.

It all looks so simple. And yet, if you have been following the Cowboys for a few decades, you know it is not. This is rare dominance, and when the sun shines down on you, you must soak it in and enjoy it.

Just three days until they go at it again.

DMN Cowboys Mailbag - 11/18

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By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

 Well, here we are. It is time once again (already) for the annual two-home-games-in-five-days stretch that generally shapes the Cowboys season.

 

Only this year, here we are and the Cowboys sit high above the NFC and are in the foreign position of almost being comfortable.  

But it has certainly not been a comfortable week at the Star as Tony Romo conceded his decade-long reign as QB1 on Tuesday before Thursday brought us the news that he had first tried to get it back. I know there are plenty of things to unpack there and continue to prepare for Baltimore on the weekend, and Washington in six days.  

This week will tell us even more about the 2016 Cowboys. First, let's see what you have for me this morning:

Q: Obviously, Romo isn't going to stick around in 2017. Which teams do you think he would be a good fit for?

I think the line forms to the right. He is a solid QB who could have several more years. I don't think that his health can realistically hold up, but the Cowboys claimed they think it can as recently as yesterday. Of course, I believe we all know that Jerry's comments yesterday were simply setting the table for a nice trade negotiation in the spring time, but he still said that "five more years" mantra he has repeated for about three years. Evidently, the five years never actually starts in his mind. There really should only be about two years left based on his original optimism. Somehow, Jerry's optimism has actually grown with more injuries in a way that makes you think he believes that this is actually time off for Romo that has extended his career, rather than repeated back injuries which generally spell the end.

Anyway, just off the top of my head: Chicago, Minnesota, San Francisco and perhaps Washington and Arizona in the NFC. In the AFC, I would figure Denver, maybe Kansas City, Cleveland, New York and even Houston could exhibit some interest. So there are 10 teams that Tony might consider with varying levels of need and attractiveness. I figure a draft pick seems in play, but it is tough to predict that. Minnesota was desperate in September when they traded a first for Sam Bradford and I think everyone now realizes the folly in that. I would be shocked if you get close to that.

Q: Besides Dak and Zeke, what other factors do you think have contributed to this Cowboys turnaround from 4-12?

Players? A healthy Dez Bryant (sort of) and a healthy Terrell McClain along with Byron Jones at free safety all seem to be the types of moves that have really assisted this.  

Coaching? I think the coaches have done a nice job - after a very poor one last year where they seemed out of ideas by October 1 - of really challenging themselves to put a system in place that best suits Dak Prescott. Yes, coaches look smarter when they have better players, but the confidence they have installed in everyone with their courageous calls has been contagious.  

Personnel? The draft is more than Prescott and Zeke. The picks of Maliek Collins and Anthony Brown have also been quite solid. If Jaylon Smith joins the group in 2017, this may be the best draft in 40 years.  

Q: What should Cowboys fans fear about the Ravens' offense, if anything?

Yes. They should fear the deep pass. The Ravens will do what Pittsburgh tried to do, which is take some deep shots and get big catches or flags. They will be emboldened by the Steelers getting six explosive plays - the high all year against Dallas. Mike Wallace is a very impressive deep threat, as is Breshad Perriman if he can continue on his development path.  

Teams are now going to go after the Cowboys secondary. It is vital they put this fire out quickly.

Q: So do the Cowboys make it a clean sweep of the AFC North on Sunday?

I say yes, but that obviously is rather worthless if this team starts to think it has accomplished anything so far. I recoiled a bit when Tony labeled this as a "magical season" on Tuesday. I would suggest that there has never been a magical season in NFL history built on the merits of things accomplished by November 15. That portion of the season can put you in position for magical situations down the road, but 8-1 is just not the goal. They know that, but I don't want anyone to get it twisted. Magic only occurs in January and February.

All that said, this team is on a roll of great confidence and repeatability, and that is why I think the Cowboys are a flat-out better team than Baltimore. But Baltimore has won enough over the years to know that they can win games in any location and any situation. They are a strong-willed team that loves street fights.  

Q: I know Pittsburgh goes for two a lot. But do they generally keep chasing the points when they fail early? They really put themselves in a tough spot Sunday afternoon.

The game on Sunday was pretty crazy in that regard. I would not call that normal at all. They just started chasing the points all day because they also felt they were chasing the game all day. Why they did it right off the bat at 6-0 made little sense, but from there, they acted like they were pot-committed all day.  

And watching that, as much as many of us think the 2-point conversion is underutilized, it is hard to think they pushed the cause in the positive direction that day. That might also go for Seattle a few hours later. This is the issue with innovation. Someone has to go first and then find success or everyone gets even more reluctant to join them on the pier.  

Q: Seattle's offense seems to be coming around as Russell Wilson gets healthy. How do you rank Seattle vs. Dallas in the NFC?

Seattle is the king of the NFC in my mind. The playoffs always go through them. If they have to come to Dallas, you would favor the Cowboys. If the playoff game is up there, you would favor the Seahawks. Cowboys fans cite their October win in 2014 as proof they can win up there, and it is.  But it is far from assurance that it will happen again in January.  

Seattle has the one defense you should really fear and the one QB you should really fear. That combination puts them in play, despite their rough start, the offensive line issues, and the fact that Marshawn Lynch has surely not been replaced by something similar.  

I will just say this - I still fear Seattle a lot.

Q: The Ravens have always been known for defense. Haven't paid that much attention to them this year. Are they still formidable?

Oh yes. They are very good still. They have two really solid safeties. They have very good linebackers, too. They can get there off the edge to the QB and they have some huge boys inside that make inside runs very difficult. This is the side of the ball that is quite formidable. Be ready for a challenging day for the offense. Of course, every time we say that, the Cowboys destroy the supposed "great" defense that is put in front of them.  

I am not calling them Arizona or Seattle or Minnesota on defense, but they are pretty legit.  

Q: Was Tuesday's Romo announcement all him or did the Cowboys finally decide to get this Dak-Tony thing over with?

I think it was all him. I certainly have mixed emotions about it and I really like the player. I wrote about it yesterday, so check out that piece if you wish to hear me elaborate. I don't think the Cowboys had anything to do with it and I don't think they believe they have "made up their mind" for the remainder of the year. Just for now or "until things change."

Q: Prescott seems to be spreading the ball around to even more receivers as the season goes on. Is this a case of him becoming more comfortable or Linehan opening up the offense for his rookie QB?

I would say yes.  Linehan's design clearly encourages a QB to spread the ball around based on how the defense presents itself. Take what they give and make their decisions as a defense always wrong.  

But, Prescott really does make sure that he looks everywhere. He doesn't force the ball and that requires him to scan his options and do the math in his head before pulling the trigger. I cannot stress how impressive it is to build up the stats without ever putting the ball in harm's way.  I know we can pick apart his film and talk about missed chances (although I also believe it is overstated), but my issues with a QB are to move the team, win on 3rd downs, and keep the ball out of trouble.

Dak Prescott does that all with grades that are far beyond just "passing." 

I Don't Believe We Have Seen the Last Of This Guy

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Jae S. Lee/AP

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo speaks to the media at Ford Center at the Star in Dallas, Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2016. Tony Romo says Dak Prescott has "earned the right" to take his job as starting quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys. (Jae S. Lee/The Dallas Morning News via AP)

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

This has been a difficult week for the type of fan that enjoys the dramatic element that only sports can provide. We could watch scripted dramas on television or read a good novel, but for many, sports are the best drama that anyone could ever imagine. It doesn't require a team of writers, because watching these hundreds of interwoven stories play out before the entire world is plenty worthy of popcorn on our couch. 

 

Somewhere in our desire to be entertained by these gladiators who are often cast as heroes and villains because of the shirts they wear, we still want our happy endings. We want the hero to be rewarded for years and years of hard work. He will suffer his fair share of defeats and injuries, but he will, by the time the credits roll, emerge victorious against that which he battles. 

We want that, and even though we know from experience that it almost never works out that way, at times like these, we are disappointed when we see our guy faced with harsh reality. 

This one might not have a happy ending. 

Tony Romo isn't a national hero. In many cities this week, there are plenty who are wondering what the big deal is all about. 

"Romo? You would think this is Tom Brady the way they are acting down there." 

It is tough to explain what wins the hearts of those who never miss a snap. Each city in this nation have their own version of Tony Romo. I was raised supporting my favorite QB Lynn Dickey, who unfortunately had seasons end with broken bones more often than the playoffs. My buddy talks about Brian Sipe as if he was Joe Montana. 

Romo has had a much better career than either of those two QBs, but the point is that often an athlete grows into the DNA of a sports city in a way that those outside the borders would never understand. It isn't about Super Bowls. It is about our time together. We feel like we saw him as a boy and now we are seeing him stare his own vulnerability in the face as he ponders the end of the road. 

He is the guy that was at the center of so many arguments and so many hopeful moments. The proximity to the Dirk Nowitzki fairy tale coming true had many hoping that ultimately Romo would get the last laugh and his place among true Dallas Cowboys legends of decades past. 

On Tuesday, he spilled his heart and in some ways publicly surrendered to reality and pledged his allegiance to the kid who took his place as his body tried to mend one more time. It felt noble and sincere, but you had to know that deep down inside he was wrestling with his own heart through the speech. 

He wants to play. This is his team. He wants to climb that mountain that will make this entire journey make sense and he stands at the foot of the hill and realizes he is not going to be allowed to do so. 

Most of us will never know the life of a pro athlete. These careers go by in a blink. It has been said that athletes die twice. First, their careers and all they have worked for pass away, and then along with the rest of us mortals decades later (we hope). 

But as a "Romo guy", I don't think this is his end. I think he was trying to convince everyone that he is stepping aside, but he has played football long enough to know that the next play of any game could be the one that changes everything. 

And just as that put him on ice, it can also put him right back in the huddle. 

I believe that sports are the best drama. And I don't believe we have seen the last of the old hero. 

In sports, the scripts are better than any writers could ever hope for. With 10 more weeks of football between here and a Lombardi Trophy being awarded to the champion, surely we don't believe we have seen every plot twist. 

Stay tuned. And Tony, stay ready.