Ask Sports Sturm: NFL Rankings, Version 8.0

Here it is, the 8th annual edition of the Historical Rankings of the 32 NFL Franchises in the Super Bowl Era. The object of this game is to find a way to quantify the accomplishments of each team in a way that is a bit more advanced than saying “The Jets have one Super Bowl win, the Vikings have none…therefore the Jets have a better history of quality than the Vikings”. Obviously, if you follow the two franchises, you know that it really isn’t close – the Vikings have shown consistently great results – just never have won the big one.

To recap, a few years ago, a good strong listener asked me to rank the franchises from #32 to #1 based on their accomplishments from Super Bowl I to present.

So I did. I wanted it to be objective, not subjective. I wanted it to be a formula and you would just enter the numbers and it would spit out the rankings with no favoritism or prejudice. We have been doing this since 2001. Since then, it has been imitated a time or two , but I don’t mind. It is pretty obvious idea for any sports nerd to come up with.

Here is how it works. Each Franchise gets 1 point for each season it makes the playoffs. Then, if it reaches the Conference Championship Game it gets a total of 3 points. If it makes the Super Bowl it gets 5, and if it wins the Super Bowl it wins the maximum total of points in a given year of 11. It used to be 10 for the Super Bowl, but I have adjusted it this year because I didn’t like the idea that 2 Super Bowl losses equaled a Super Bowl win. So, Now 11 points for a win and 5 for a loss in the Super Bowl.

I have been asked why no points are given for wins in the Wildcard round, but I decided that would not make sense with the idea that the playoffs have grown over the years and there is no way to equalize a smaller field to a larger one. Also, a Wildcard win is not that big a deal anymore with 6 teams in the playoffs, so unless you reach the Conference Title game, no additional points beyond the 1 for making the post-season.

I also have been asked how come I don’t go by average points per season (since many teams have joined the league since Super Bowl 1. My answer is simple: I don’t want to penalize teams who have been in the league all of the years. If you go by average points per year rather than total points, it is possible that the Baltimore Ravens would have been #1 if they had won the Super Bowl this year. No chance I would believe that premise, given that they didn’t exist prior to 1996. But, if a team has been established since the season of Super Bowl 1 (1966), it is notated.
Just add up the points for all the years, and that is the entire formula.

Otherwise, I break ties based on the team with more Super Bowl wins, then Super Bowl losses, then Championship Game wins, etc. There are no ties. I will settle it somehow.



#1 - The Dallas Cowboys (Same as Last Year, #1)

Total Points: 107
Total Playoff Years: 66C, 67C, 68, 69, 70SL, 71S, 72C, 73C, 75SL, 76, 77S, 78SL, 79, 80C, 81C, 82C, 83, 85, 91, 92S, 93S, 94C, 95S, 96, 98, 99, 03, 06, 07

P: 29
4: 8
2: 3
1: 5

The Cowboys remain the undisputed Champ since Super Bowl I. But, when we started doing this, they had what appeared to be an absolutely insurmountable lead. It has nearly been all lost. The Steelers are now within a handful of points, or one Super Bowl appearance of undoing the entire lead.



#2 - The Pittburgh Steelers (Same)

Total Points: 102
Total Playoff Years: 72C, 73, 74S, 75S, 76C, 77, 78S, 79S, 82, 83, 84C, 89, 92, 93, 94C, 95SL, 96, 97C, 01C, 02, 04C, 05S, 07, 08S

P: 24
4: 7
2: 1
1: 6

In the last 14 years, the Steelers have won 2 Super Bowls, lost another, and lost 4 more Championship games. As everyone lauds New England, they should take a long look at the amazing quality of the “next generation” Pittsburgh Steelers.



#3 - The San Francisco 49ers (Same)

Total Points: 85
Total Playoff Years: 70C, 71C, 72, 81S, 83C, 84S, 85, 86, 87, 88S, 89S, 90C, 92C, 93C, 94S, 95, 96, 97C, 98, 01, 02

Hasn’t made the playoffs in six years. Ouch.

P: 21
4: 7
2: 0
1: 5



#4 - The Oakland Raiders (Same)

Total Points: 77
Total Playoff Years: 67SL, 68C, 69C, 70C, 72, 73C, 74C, 75C, 76S, 77C, 80S, 82, 83S, 84, 85, 90C, 91, 93, 00C, 01, 02SL

The joke of the NFL now days, but still entrenched in the top 5 all-time.

P: 21
4: 9
2: 2
1: 3



#5 - The New England Patriots (Same)

Total Points: 59
Total Playoff Years: 76, 78, 82, 85SL, 86, 94, 96SL, 97, 98, 01S, 03S, 04S, 05, 06C, 07SL

They missed the playoffs in 2008, but their record speaks for itself in the last decade as they are all the way up into the Top 5.

P: 15
4: 1
2: 3
1: 3



#6 - The Miami Dolphins (Up 1, from #7)

Total Points: 58
Total Playoff Years: 70, 71SL, 72S, 73S, 74, 78, 79, 81, 82SL, 83, 84SL, 85C, 90, 92C, 94, 95, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 08

The unlikely playoff berth shot them back in front of Denver to #6.

P: 22
4: 2
2: 3
1: 2



# 7 The Denver Broncos (6)

Total Points: 57
Total Playoff Years: 77SL, 78, 79, 83, 84, 86SL, 87SL, 89SL, 91C, 93, 96, 97S, 98S, 00, 03, 04, 05C

Missed the playoffs again, and fell back a spot behind Miami.

P: 17
4: 2
2: 4
1: 2



#8 - The Washington Redskins (Same)

Total Points: 56
Total Playoff Years: 71, 72SL, 73, 74, 76, 82S, 83SL, 84, 86C, 87S, 90, 91S, 92, 99, 05, 07

Another team without much in the last 15 years, but quite a resume.

P: 16
4: 1
2: 2
1: 3



#9 - The Green Bay Packers (Same)

Total Points: 53
Total Playoff Years: 66S, 67S, 72, 82, 93, 94, 95C, 96S, 97SL, 98, 01, 02, 03, 04, 07C

13-3 to out of the playoffs…sound familiar?

P: 15
4: 2
2: 1
1: 3



#10 - The St Louis/Los Angeles Rams (Same)

Total Points: 51
Total Playoff Years: 67, 69, 73, 74C, 75C, 76C, 77, 78C, 79SL, 80, 83, 84, 85C, 86, 88, 89C, 99S, 00, 01SL, 03, 04

They appear to be a ways away from gaining more points. But, top 10 still.

P: 21
4: 6
2: 2
1: 1



#11 - The Minnesota Vikings (Same)

Total Points: 49
Total Playoff Years: 68, 69SL, 70, 71, 73SL, 74SL, 75, 76SL, 77C, 78, 80, 82, 87C, 88, 89, 92, 93, 94, 96, 97, 98C, 99, 00C, 04, 08

Made the playoffs, but still #11.

P: 25
4: 4
2: 4
1: 0



#12 - The New York Giants (Same)

Total Points: 48
Total Playoff Years: 81, 84, 85, 86S, 89, 90S, 93, 97, 00SL, 02, 05, 06, 07S, 08

Last year, nobody thought they could win…and they did. This year, everybody thought they would win…and they disappointed. Thanks, Plaxico.

P: 14
4: 0
2: 1
1: 3



#13 - Indianapolis/Baltimore Colts (Same)

Total Points: 48
Total Playoff Years: 68SL, 70S, 71C, 75, 76, 77, 87, 95C, 96, 99, 00, 02, 03C, 04, 05, 06S, 07, 08

They lose the tiebreaker with the Giants on Lombardi Trophies.

P: 18
4: 3
2: 1
1: 2




#14 - The Buffalo Bills (Same)

Total Points: 34
Total Playoff Years: 66C, 74, 80, 81, 88C, 89, 90SL, 91SL, 92SL, 93SL, 95, 96, 98, 99

A huge gap to #13, and the Bills have not had a playoff berth this millennium. In fact, nothing since Music City Miracle.

P: 14
4: 2
2: 4
1: 0



#15 - The Philadelphia Eagles (Up 2, from #17)

Total Points: 33
Total Playoff Years: 78, 79, 80SL, 81, 88, 89, 90, 92, 95, 96, 00, 01C, 02C, 03C, 04SL, 06, 08C

The Eagles spot in the final 4 shot them up past the Bears and Chiefs into the 15th spot.

P: 17
4: 4
2: 2
1: 0



#16 - The Chicago Bears (Down 1, from #15)

Total Points: 31
Total Playoff Years: 77, 79, 84C, 85S, 86, 87, 88C, 90, 91, 94, 01, 05, 06SL

Down a spot after another mediocre year.

P: 13
4: 2
2: 1
1: 1



#17 - The Kansas City Chiefs (Down 1, from 16)

Total Points: 30
Total Playoff Years: 66SL, 68, 69S, 71, 86, 90, 91, 92, 93C, 94, 95, 97, 03, 06

Not even close to the playoffs in the last 2 seasons caused the house-cleaning. They hold the tie breaker with the Titans by virtue of Super Bowl.

P: 14
4: 1
2: 1
1: 1



#18 - The Tennessee Titans/Houston Oilers (Same)

Total Points: 30
Total Playoff Years: 67C, 69, 78C, 79C, 80, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 99SL, 00, 02C, 03, 07, 08

Added point by making the playoffs, but they absolutely had bigger plans for 2008.

P: 18
4: 4
2: 1
1: 0



#19 - The New York Jets (Same)

Total Points: 26
Total Playoff Years: 68S, 69, 81, 82C, 85, 86, 91, 98C, 01, 02, 04, 06

Favre did not get them back in the playoffs, so they stay at #19

P: 12
4: 2
2: 0
1: 1



#20 The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Same)

Established 1976

Total Points: 24
Total Playoff Years: 79C, 81, 82, 97, 99C, 00, 01, 02S, 05, 07

They lost to the Raiders at home to miss the playoffs, and sit at #20 – winning the tiebreaker with the Browns because they won Super Bowl 37.

P: 10
4: 2
2: 0
1: 1



#21 - The Cleveland Browns (same)

Total Points: 24
Total Playoff Years: 67, 68C, 69C, 71, 72, 80, 82, 85, 86C, 87C, 88, 89C, 94, 02

A very weak 15 years from Cleveland…

P: 14
4: 5
2: 0
1: 0



#22 The San Diego Chargers (Same)

Total Points: 21
Total Playoff Years: 79, 80C, 81C, 82, 92, 94SL, 95, 04, 06, 07C, 08

A consistent playoff performer in the last 5 years, but no big prizes to accumulate points.

P: 11
4: 3
2: 1
1: 0



#23 – The Baltimore Ravens (Up 2 spots, from #25)

Established 1996

Total Points: 17
Total Playoff Years: 00S, 01, 03, 06, 08C

With their spot in the Final 4, they leapfrogged the Bengals and the Seahawks, and broke their tie with the Falcons.

P: 5
4: 1
2: 0
1: 1



#24 - The Cincinnati Bengals (Down 1, from #23)

Established 1968

Total Points: 16
Total Playoff Years: 70, 73, 75, 81SL, 82, 88SL, 90, 05

1 playoff spot in 19 seasons? Horrid pro football in Ohio.

P: 8
4: 0
2: 2
1: 0



#25 - The Seattle Seahawks (Down 1, from #24)

Established 1976

Total Points: 16
Total Playoff Years: 83C, 84, 87, 88, 99, 03, 04, 05SL, 06, 07

First time since 2002 they have missed the playoffs.

P: 10
4: 1
2: 1
1: 0



#26 – The Atlanta Falcons (Same)

Total Points: 15
Total Playoff Years: 78, 80, 82, 91, 95, 98SL, 02, 04C, 08

Grabbed a point with their berth, and Matt Ryan adds optimism for the future.

P: 9
4: 1
2: 1
1: 0



#27 - Carolina Panthers (Same)

Established 1995

Total Points: 12
Total Playoff Years: 96C, 03SL, 05C, 08

Left a tie with Detroit, and bumped up a spot with their playoff appearance. Shocked many of us by not being in the Championship game.

P: 4
4: 2
2: 1
1: 0



#28 - Detroit Lions (Same)

Total Points: 11

Total Playoff Years: 70, 82, 83, 91C, 93, 94, 95, 97, 99

No playoff spots this millennium, and no end in sight.

P: 9
4: 1
2: 0
1: 0



#29 – The Jacksonville Jaguars (Same)

Established 1995

Total Points: 10
Total Playoff Years: 96C, 97, 98, 99C, 05, 07

Missed the playoffs, so they remain a chaser of their expansion brother, Carolina.

P: 6
4: 2
2: 0
1: 0



#30 – The Arizona/St Louis Cardinals (Up 1, from #31)

Total Points: 9
Total Playoff Years: 74, 75, 82, 98, 08SL

Made a Super Bowl? And still only gained enough points to jump the Saints. The Cardinals have been really bad for a really long time.

P: 5
4: 0
2: 1
1: 0




#31 – The New Orleans Saints (Down 1, from #30)

Established 1967

Total Points: 8
Total Playoff Years: 87, 90, 91, 92, 00, 06C

Passed by the Cardinals? Oh, the humanity.

P: 6
4: 1
2: 0
1: 0



#32 – The Houston Texans (32)

Established 2002

Total Points: 0
Total Playoff Years: None

Eventually, they will make the playoffs, you would have to imagine.

P: 0
4: 0
2: 0
1: 0

Explanation of Years:
Just the year means they made the playoffs (1 point). Year followed by “C” means they lost in the Conference Championship Game (3 points), Year followed by “SL” means they lost the Super Bowl (5 points), and Year followed by “S” means they won the Super Bowl (11 points).

Version 7.0 …

Version 6.0 …

Super Bowl XLIII: Steelers 27, Cardinals 23

If you are new to the planet, I should inform you that once upon a time, these Super Bowls were not very good. I know in the last 10 years, you could certainly make the case that 6 of the 10 have been very good games, but it wasn’t always like that.

But, last night, I am tempted to say, was awesome. Yes, I may be guilty of giving a movie a great review based on the last 30 minutes, but, the drama and intrigue of the 4th Quarter was flat-out spectacular even if the game was on a Sunday afternoon in October. But for it to be with the world-wide audience of a Super Bowl? Bravo, football world, bravo.

The Pittsburgh Steelers closed the deal on their record-sixth Super Bowl, and thus have the claim in some circles as the dominant team in the Super Bowl era. The idea that they have won 2 Super Bowls in 4 years also puts them dangerously close to qualifying for a dynasty if they can win one more in the next 2 years. It is hard to conceive that this Steelers team is a dominant force, because parts of their team don’t seem very dominating (the offensive line seems about as average as it gets), but let us give great credit where credit is due: They win. They win a lot. And they win in many different ways.

The Arizona Cardinals, on the other hand, must do what the Dallas Mavericks did a few years ago. That is, in defeat, wonder if that was “their chance”. Wonder if leading a Super Bowl with 40 seconds to go was the closest they would ever come to winning it all, and now have to wander the earth feeling like they blew it. You feel badly, because they fought their tails off, but only one team gets the trophy.

It was 4 hours of football immortality… it was worth the hype…It was the Super Bowl. Notes from a big night in Tampa:

• Why can’t the officials, who go to such painstaking lengths to review every piece of minutia, just look again at the Cardinals last-gasp effort that was ruled a fumble? Why am I left to hear Al Michaels assure me that “they looked at it and ruled it properly” when it was clear they did not have time to do this? It seemed very much like the Brett Hull goal in Buffalo; it may have been the right result, but would it kill anyone to take 60 seconds and make sure the right team is being crowned? Before you can consider the replay, the Steelers have taken a knee and the game is over.

• Santonio Holmes has broken out this season in a huge way. For the last 2 months, when the Steelers needed something clutch to happen, Holmes has been there nearly every time. And, for all of the catches and punt returns before Sunday, the former Buckeye’s domination in that game – especially late – was the stuff of absolute legend. He is the sixth WR to win the MVP trophy, with 3 being Steelers (Swann, Ward) and 3 being the rest of the league (Biletnikoff, Rice, Branch). Holmes was so great on the final drive, and to make the story book even better, the play before the play was in the opposite corner and went through his out-stretched hands. He got another chance in the other corner, and what a catch he made.

• Meanwhile, Larry Fitzgerald would certainly win the Conn Smythe award if football gave a “playoff mvp” instead of a Super Bowl MVP. The last month has taken the discussion out of the “who is the best WR in football” debate. There is no debate. #11 in red is at a different level, and he is not very old, either. Tell me, Steelers, what were you thinking on his 64 yard catch? What were the safeties thinking? Ryan Clark and Troy Polamalu both bit on the sideline patterns from Breaston and Boldin, leaving the middle of the field completely bare. Unless this was a genius tactic to get the ball back, the Steelers really lost the plot there. If there is one guy who cannot be allowed to beat you down the middle of the field, it is Fitz. In the postgame, Holmes said “that we knew the defense would get us the ball back”. Yes, Santonio, technically allowing a 2 play drive that took only 16 seconds is getting the ball back, but that isn’t what they had in mind.

• The James Harrison interception return is likely the difference in the game. A 14 point swing in one snap is surely as gutting as it gets to the Cardinals efforts. This broke the record of the Desmond Howard kickoff return in Super Bowl XXXI. Harrison is such a great story and if it wasn’t for his absurd personal foul late in the game, he would be another guy who could have claimed a share of the MVP. Harrison is a stud. But, last night, you would have to argue whether his personal foul or Adrian Wilson’s personal foul qualifies as the worst play by an excellent player.

• Ben Roethlisberger played a fine game, in my estimation. He certainly came out sharp, and to lead his team on that final drive solidified his effort. You do wonder why the Cardinals called off the pass rush on the final drive, but regardless, the Steelers marched down the field in a situation where one mistake and they finish 2nd. Big Ben reminds me so much of Donovan McNabb, with those plays of sheer chaos that turn into something big. With 2 rings, he has already “made it”, and now we will see if he can achieve even more ahead. Keep in mind, he was the 3rd QB in the Eli Manning, Phil Rivers conversation in the 2004 draft.

• A few readers have raised good points. DRice suggested that the play at the end of the half may not have been quite as controversial if you consider that the half could not end on a defensive foul. Therefore, if it is called as it would seem to be written, the Steelers would have had another shot at things from the 3 inch line. I think that may be possible, but because no one has raised the point, I am wondering if the penalty was applicable. Then, there were several readers that wondered why Santonio was not penalized for his Lebron/hand powder celebration that used the football as a prop. The penalty would surely have caused the Steelers to kick from their 15 yard line, and really given the Cardinals a short field.

• I love the concept of the inverted cover 2. If you suggest that a safety is stronger than a corner, and a corner is faster than a safety, would it not stand to reason that the safety should be at the line for the jam, and the corner over the top for the footrace? Why hasn’t anyone thought of it until now? It only makes sense on a trouble double-cover, but if you have decided that you are dedicating 2 defenders to Fitzgerald on a given play, wouldn’t it make sense to jam him with Polamalu?

• When Dan Patrick handed the Lombardi trophy to Dan Rooney, he said “You are now the winningest franchise in NFL History”. Not to be a stickler, but I think you mean “Super Bowl history”. Because, with 6 NFL Titles, The Steelers rank 5th behind Green Bay (12), Chicago (9), Cleveland (8 – although 4 were in the AAFC), and the New York Giants (7). I know most people think that football began when we changed the name from NFL Championship game to the Super Bowl, but it did exist before that, too. Sorry about me.

• Famous celebrities for Arizona (complete list): Cuba Gooding, Jr. In fact, he may not actually like them, but since Rod Tidwell was the best player in franchise history before this season, I guess…

• Ken Whisenhunt’s use of the challenge system was brilliant. I am not sure I have ever seen a coach get the 3rd challenge. Nicely done.

• Maybe the best grab of Santonio’s night was the catch he made on 3rd and 10 from the Steelers 1 yard line late in the 4th Quarter. I thought it was crazy that the Steelers thought shotgun from their own endzone was a good plan. Holmes caught the ball with tremendous concentration, but it didn’t count because of the hold in the endzone. The safety cut the lead to 20-16, and then with the punt from the 20 instead of from the back of the endzone, I thought the Steelers actually may have benefited from the holding call. Alas, 2 plays later Fitzgerald was pulling away from the Steelers secondary like they had cement shoes.

• Guys who I should write about because of things they did on defense that positively impacted the game: Darnell Dockett, LaMarr Woodley, Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie, Ike Taylor.

• I really think Heath Miller is a fine Tight End. I bet the Steelers are just scratching the surface of what he can do. If they want to see his numbers really improve, get better tackles on the OL that can allow him to stop pass-protecting half the time.

• I feel badly for the great Kurt Warner fairy tale. The guy is absolute class and this would have been a neat way to retire, if he chose to do so. Best Kurt Warner stat? In 3 Super Bowls, this is the only one that has not been decided on the last play!

• Bottom line from Super Bowl XLIII: The better team won. Not easily, but the NFL doesn’t need consecutive years of 9-7 champions. The league benefits when good teams survive the playoff gauntlet, and although I thought the Patriots, Colts, and maybe even Chargers would be a better team in 2008 than the Steelers, I think they are a worthy champion. I am quite pleased with another season of NFL Football.

• Now, with only the combine, free agency, and the draft to amuse us, those of us who love the NFL more than anything else must go into our hibernation for 7 long months of “other stuff”. Sniff.

From 4 to 2

Remember the hypothetical years ago that asked what would happen first; a Black President of the United States or the Cardinals in the Super Bowl?

I guess we may have to get a ruling on who wins based on technicalities, but wait no longer Cardinals fans. All 4,000 of you who were there when the team played at Sun Devil Stadium, and the no-doubt millions who have joined you since have great reason to celebrate. You have won the NFC.

Meanwhile, a perfect demonstration on home field advantage and the bye week being important were on display in Pittsburgh where the war of attrition finally took down the Ravens. The Steelers used both of those old playoff truths and combined them with “rookie QB’s cannot win in the playoffs” to finally take down Rookie Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens with a solid nightcap to Championship Sunday.

So, who are the two coaches who will meet in Super Bowl 43? Mike Tomlin and Ken Whisenhunt meet in 2 weeks after being hired at virtually the same time 24 months ago as largely anonymous hires when Bill Cowher stepped down and Dennis Green was fired. Whisenhunt was actually interviewed by the Steelers for their opening before they decided to hire Tomlin. Mike Tomlin gets the Steelers job after 1 year as a coordinator, and is the 3rd consecutive coach who is in his 30’s to get the job in Pittsburgh.

The biggest story of the weekend has to be the return of Kurt Warner to the Super Bowl. What is crazier than a guy coming out of absolutely nowhere to take his team to the Super Bowl? How about a guy doing it twice? He comes out of the grocery store and take the Rams to the top of the league – then disappears to the scrap heap, and somehow emerges again to take the Arizona Cardinals to the Super Bowl at the age of 37? Really? Is this happening?

Regardless, 4 has become 2. A very unlikely pairing in Tampa. Here are some observations from the Championship Sunday:

NFC Championship Game – Philadelphia at Arizona:

• With 1 game yet to play, Larry Fitzgerald already holds the NFL Record for most receiving yards in one playoff run. His 420 yards beat out the 409 Jerry Rice had in 1988. Rice had his in 3 games, and Fitzgerald beat his mark in 3 games as well. Now, with that 4th game to come, Larry can put it out of reach. His performances the last two weeks – especially when Anquan Boldin has not been healthy – have been amazing. I certainly thought that Philadelphia, having seen what happened in Charlotte, would make someone other than #11 beat them. But, it was quite clear that is easier said than done. I know Pittsburgh will try to figure something out, but is he just too good to game-plan against? I am starting to wonder.

• What happened to David Akers yesterday? As far as money kickers go, he is right there at the top of my list. But, yesterday, nothing went right for the Eagles kicker, and perhaps they lost the game because of him. A missed FG, a missed X-pt, and a kick out of bounds was not very money in a really big spot. When you go 45-45 on extra points in the season, you should not be a candidate to shank one at a crucial spot.

• The final drive the Eagles had, down 7 and facing a 4th and 10, came down to one play. It looked like the throw was there to Kevin Curtis and it looked like the Receiver was ready to make the catch until Rod Hood ran up the back of his leg. I thought a pretty clear Pass Interference. You certainly hate to see a game decided on a call, but you also hate to see the game decided on a non-call. I think that was a pretty large non-call.

• I hope you enjoyed the flashback to the big Cardinals-Eagles rivalry from 1947 and 1948. It could just be me, but that sure doesn’t look like the same sport they are playing, does it?

• How do you judge Donovan McNabb’s day? He was very shaky early, then engineered a very impressive rally, and then with the game on the line again, had some very poor throws late in the game. In the playoffs, there are rare opportunities for home run passes, and McNabb missed quite a few chances for points during the game. It seems that the Eagles should have had more points than they did. The Eagles defense betrayed them on Sunday, but I think #5 has had better moments in big spots, too. Now, 1-4 in Championship Games and 0-1 in Super Bowls has Donovan with a pretty large burden on his back when it comes to his legacy and his ability to win the big games. Surely a tough fate for a guy who threw for 375, but I just thought plays were there all day for him.

• Lost plenty of respect for Anquan Boldin during the biggest drive in Cardinals history. His petulant fit with Todd Haley with 5:30 to go in the game instead of staying on point is another example of the new NFL. In this new league, if a player thinks he is right and the coach is wrong, he then feels compelled to show up the coach and rant and rave regardless of how it looks and how many millions see it. But of course, he is another WR diva starring in their own movie, who is also the pride of the Florida triangle (Miami, Florida, or Florida State) where respect for authority is an elective. Sorry behavior indeed. But, in the new NFL, there are plenty to excuse this petulance.

• I think the Cardinals got better when they did this .

• Have you ever seen a more beautiful play than the Arrington throw back to Warner who tossed a 62 yard strike to Larry Fitz? Absolute poetry in motion. Certainly had any student of Whisenhunt thinking back to Super Bowl 40 when Antwaan Randle El hit Hines Ward deep on the only WR TD Pass in Super Bowl history. Whisenhunt was the play caller that day, and it would seem he has a good feel for when to call the trick play, no?

AFC Championship Game – Baltimore at Pittsburgh:

• I think if these two teams played each-other every week, I would most likely be a regular viewer. It is rare to find defenses that are as good as they claim to be, but Baltimore and Pittsburgh are really that good. They hit, they run, they hit, they scheme, and then they hit. What physically punishing defenses! Love it.

• In the last two months, I think we all know that Santonio Holmes is a big play Wide Receiver. He hurt the Cowboys. He hurt the Ravens. He hurt the Chargers. And he hurt the Ravens again. I am not sure Ben Roethlisberger is a prolific passer when it comes to QB ratings and completion percentage, but he sure has a knack for a big play in a big spot. He also has the knack for winning playoff games, and with a 7-2 playoff record at this point of his career, it would seem that his critics have a lot of evidence working against them.

• I love the media getting carried away. And they are guilty of getting carried away with Joe Flacco. Is he a rookie? Yes. Was he the QB of a team that won in the playoffs? Yes. But, did he have much to do with the win? No. The stats don’t lie. 3 games, 33 completions on 75 passes. 437 yards in 3 games (145 yards per game) and 1 Touchdown. So, if playoff wins are the sole decider on which QB is better than the next, Joe Flacco has 2 playoff wins already. But, the Ravens passing game had almost nothing to do with it. And his pass to Polamalu ended the game. Promising kid, but let’s simmer down.

• Troy Polamalu may be my favorite player in the NFL. Watching Ed Reed, Brian Dawkins, Adrian Wilson, and Polamalu play safety is such a pleasure. The complete disregard for their bodies and the ability to fly around the field is just amazing. The big plays they make, the momentum that they can change with one moment, the leadership for their teams. And to think that just 3 years ago, I took the wild stand that Roy Williams is not in this class , despite what Sporting News claimed, and was opened up to ridicule from the Cowboys fans….

• Le’Ron McClain was clearly not healthy, and therefore Willis McGahee took center stage in his best “remember me?” Edgerrin James impression. Willis looked pretty salty for most of the night until the huge collision he sustained with Ryan Clark’s helmet. McGahee’s health is still a concern this morning for everyone but the music guy at Heinz Field who wants to roll another CCR tune.

• Limas Sweed needs to learn how to catch, it would appear. Downfield blocks,
however, do not seem to be an area of weakness.

• MVP of the AFC Championship game? Ravens Specialist Darren Stone. Former Cowboys special teams player who was actually with the Cowboys for about 9 days this October, committed an absolute killer of a personal foul when he threw Anthony Madison to the ground about 15 yards out of bounds on a punt return with under 7 minutes to go in the 4th Quarter and the Ravens down 16-14. If he did nothing, the Ravens get the ball at the 40 after the return. But, because of Stone’s stupidity, it cost the Ravens 26 yards, and they took over at their own 14. They never made it back to the 40, because Polamalu picked off the pass a few plays later and the game was over. Not saying the Ravens were going to win, but taking over at your 40 when all you need is a FG is not impossible.

• Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, and Bart Scott are all unrestricted free agents. Don’t think Suggs and Scott are going to be offered the moon?

======

Well, we are down to 2 teams, 13 days, and a trip to Tampa in our NFL Season. 2008, a year where many people learned why you don’t gamble. There is no predicting the NFL this year.

NFL Playoff Home Field Advantage

Even more data from this morning's entry. I went all the way back to the first year that 6 teams were admitted into the playoffs in each conference. Since then, you can see which seeds were in the NFC and AFC Championship games. The seed with the asterisk is the seed that went on to the Super Bowl.

Year	Home Record	AFC Seeds	NFC Seeds
1990	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
1991	8-2	1* vs 2	1* vs 2
1992	5-5	2 vs 4*	1 vs 2*
1993	8-2	1* vs 3	1* vs 2
1994	8-2	1 vs 2*	1* vs 2
1995	7-3	2* vs 5	1* vs 3
1996	8-2	2* vs 5	1* vs 2
1997	6-4	2 vs 4*	1 vs 2*
1998	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
1999	7-3	1 vs 4*	1* vs 2
2000	8-2	2 vs 4*	1* vs 2
2001	7-3	1 vs 2*	1* vs 3
2002	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
2003	6-4	1* vs 3	1 vs 3*
2004	6-4	1 vs 2*	1* vs 2
2005	4-6	2 vs 6*	1* vs 5
2006	8-2	3* vs 4	1* vs 2
2007	5-5	1* vs 3	2 vs 5*
2008	3-5	2 vs 6	4 vs 6

Table Tutorial

Most compelling piece of information I found here? 13 of 19 years (68%), in the NFC, the championship game has been the #1 seed vs the #2 seed - proving the bye week and home field mean something.

In the AFC, it has happened only 7 times (37%). Not sure what that means other than the fact that maybe the NFC has had better top seeds that make it less likely to have upsets - like the Cowboys and 49ers. On the other hand, maybe the AFC has had many playoffs where top to bottom the margin is very close.

And, in 19 years, #1 NFC has played #1 AFC only twice. 1991 and 1993.

From 8 to 4 in the NFL

I really need to stop predicting games. In fact, I am amazed that I keep trying, and I am amazed that people still care who I pick.

I seriously take my predictions very seriously. I study. I watch. I consider. And then I pick.

And time after time, I fail.

My 2008 Super Bowl? Dallas vs Indianapolis.

My Weekend winners? Tennessee, Carolina, New York, Pittsburgh

What a waste of time.

However, of the 4 games, we see yet again what a role turnovers play. Take care of the football, and you win playoff games. Turnover winners are 6-1-1 in the playoffs this year (Colts won turnover battle against the Chargers – Eagles v Vikings were even) and that renders home field useless.

See Below, the turnover results:

Winner	Loser	Turnover +/-
Baltimore	Tennessee	+3
Pittsburgh	San Diego	+2
Arizona	Carolina	+5
Philadelphia	New York	+1

Table Tutorial

Let’s offer a paragraph or two on each of the 4 games this past weekend:

Baltimore At Tennessee

This game is going to make Titans fans crazy for years. They were home. They were healthy. They outgained the Ravens who were trying almost nothing on offense, 391-211. And yet, they lost. Early in the 3rd quarter, the announcers (who were not very good) pointed out that the Ravens were averaging less than 2 yards a play.

Joe Flacco is having a career run in his rookie year. He has taken no sacks, and
thrown no picks in the two playoff games. On Saturday, he won, but really made only a handful of throws. The deep touchdown to Mason, and the deep jump ball prayer to Mark Clayton. I am not saying he isn’t impressive, but I am saying how sometimes we over-rate who the QB is of a team that is a machine like this. Brad Johnson might have won both of these games, too. Understand, they are not asking him to do anything but not screw it up. But, he is the first rookie QB EVER to win two playoff games, so I will give him his due.

Meanwhile, for Tennessee, Chris Johnson was the great equalizer. He was awesome in so many ways in the 1st half – including consecutive plays where he avoided safeties after another amazing punt in the year of the punter. But, when he sprained his ankle, the Titans lost any advantage they had against the Ravens defense, and from there on were chasing the game. But, with Justin Gage’s career performance, they still had their chances. Lendale White and Alge Crumpler had fumbles, Kerry Collins had a bad Interception, and that was too much to overcome as a -3 at home. They were doomed, and the Ravens march on.

One last thought about Flacco perhaps stepping out of the back of the end zone. At the time, I thought he did. Then, I was amazed that Fisher did not challenge it. Then, I was amazed that CBS offered 0 replays. Then, I was amazed that Dierdorf didn’t even discuss it. So, while I don’t believe he actually did step out, you can tell I was amazed.

Arizona at Carolina

I was positive that Arizona was not going to be able to compete in this setting, but I surely did not see 6 Panthers turnovers of their own. Once up 7-0, the Panthers were down 27-7 at the half. Part was the generosity of Carolina, but let’s not forget the fact that they seemed to forget who #11 was for most of the night. I think Larry Fitzgerald is the real deal, but without Boldin, didn’t you figure that the Panthers could double down on Larry and make Breaston beat them? Instead, Fitz is running free in the secondary for much of the night, for 8 catches, 166 yards, a TD, and one of the greatest receiving performances I can remember in a playoff setting.

Once Delhomme went south, you could really tell that the guys on his sideline were losing faith in him quickly. I am curious what his future is, and am also curious how we could watch the NFL all year and here are the Arizona Cardinals hosting the NFC championship game??? I am also amazed that Kenny Albert is the best Fox can do.

Meanwhile, Kurt Warner is one win from becoming the 2nd QB to start a Super Bowl with 2 different teams, and could be the only one to win a Super Bowl with 2 different teams as a starting QB. Nice to see his revival.

Philadelphia at New York

Welcome back, Eli. We truly missed you. Actually, to be fair to Eli, I think yesterday, and for that matter all of December, we saw the Plaxico factor. It is so hard to win in this league without a lead receiver, and the Giants never had a chance. Eli was looking for Derrick Ward as his primary option on 3rd down, and the Eagles figured that out by the 2nd Quarter. Brandon Jacobs was awesome, but as that game went on, the Eagles put more and more pressure on Eli to make a play. The weather and the coverage made him lose faith in himself and his receivers, and the game was over.

Meanwhile, the idiocy of McNabb’s critics was apparent again. The guy has come up big in so many situations, and the only thing that keeps him from QB greatness is winning the Super Bowl. Well, he may have a chance real soon. In the 2nd half, McNabb converted a 3rd and 20 and a 3rd and 10 to help them get another Field Goal. He went back to Curtis after a big drop, and I thought demonstrated tremendous leadership. Sure, the stands by the Eagles defense won the game, but I find myself oddly drawn to the redemption story of Donovan McNabb. His phone issue was interesting and stupid, but I think overall he deserves a mulligan or two for all he has put up with his insane fan base. The dagger at the end by going for Desean Jackson for 47 yards was money.

San Diego at Pittburgh

Four outdoor games in January, and no snow until the final game? But, who doesn’t love flurries in an amped up Hines Field? And, finally a game I predicted correctly! This game was about the Pittsburgh offense running the football like they wished, with Willie Parker looking quite healthy with 146 yards on the ground. And yet, the game was all about the deep ball. Phil Rivers hit Vincent Jackson early, And the Steelers kept going deep all day. By the way, when will the opponents of the Steelers learn that Nate Washington has no other role on the Steelers except to run 50 yards down field and either catch a bomb or draw a pass interference? He seems like he does that 4 times a game.

The Chargers were in the game at the half, but a 3rd quarter that many of us will never forget put the game right in the Steelers win column. 3rd quarter plays? 24 to 1. Yardage? 122 to 0. Time of Possession? 14:43 to :17. And turnovers? 0 to 2? How did the Chargers run 1 play and turn the ball over twice? Special teams, bro. Special teams cost the Chargers more than anyone this weekend, as the Steelers returned a punt for a touchdown and also recovered a punt that bounced off Eric Weddle on a Chargers return (Tra Battle in Pittsburgh, anyone?). To me, there was something soothing about a Steelers win, as I was not eager to see a Chargers team that was 4-8 in the Super Bowl. Would things have been different if Ladanian Tomlinson was on the case? We will never know, since it seems he is never healthy in January. Ravens at Steelers on Sunday Night? Yes, please.

===
So, with all of the road teams winning, we are all left to question the meaning of home field advantage and the bye week. It used to be something you had to have.
Now, for the first time EVER, you have 2 #6 seeds in championship games. Only 1 other #6 seed has made it this far, the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers who won the Super Bowl.

Below, please find the 10 year trends of home field advantage and seeds remaining in the AFC and NFC title games. Teams with the asterisk are the teams that won and advanced to the Super Bowl.

Year	Home Record	AFC Seeds	NFC Seeds
1998	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
1999	7-3	1 vs 4*	1* vs 2
2000	8-2	2 vs 4*	1* vs 2
2001	7-3	1 vs 2*	1* vs 3
2002	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
2003	6-4	1* vs 3	1 vs 3*
2004	6-4	1 vs 2*	1* vs 2
2005	4-6	2 vs 6*	1* vs 5
2006	8-2	3* vs 4	1* vs 2
2007	5-5	1* vs 3	2 vs 5*
2008	3-5	2 vs 6	4 vs 6

Table Tutorial

From 1998-2007, the home team was 67-33. But, this year, the home teams are just 3-5. And as you can see, there has never been a year without either #1 seed in the title games…until now.

Good Stuff, Good Stuff.

Tuesday Reading

Great Fiesta Bowl finish last night. You know me, I have no stake in this, but I should tell you that Texas was the team that I think should be playing Thursday from the Big 12. No offense, Sooners, but head to head will always out-weigh any other debate you can toss at me for two 1-loss teams.

Regardless, Colt McCoy and the Longhorns looked like they were in trouble, looked like they were in control, looked like they were in trouble again, and then finally won the game at the end. Heck of a finish to a heck of a season that turned on 1 dropped interception and 1 miracle play about 60 seconds apart in Lubbock…

the report from the San Antoinio Paper …

Actually, Colt McCoy did fold under the pressure.

With his Texas Longhorns trailing Ohio State by four, less than two minutes on the clock to mount the comeback, and the entire focus of the University of Phoenix Stadium centering on his jersey, McCoy bounced up and down on the sideline and then lowered himself to one knee.

McCoy bowed his head, collected his thoughts and silently steadied his shoulders underneath the weight of an entire team.

He lifted himself up, calm and cool, and then he lifted the third-ranked Longhorns to a remarkable 24-21 Fiesta Bowl victory in a manner that defines his entire season — poised and precise.

McCoy and the Longhorns trailed 21-17 with 1:58 on the clock and the ball on their own 22-yard line. One minute, 42 seconds later, they were celebrating in the end zone, and it was all because of McCoy.

Literally.

UT needed 11 plays to gain 78 yards, and McCoy was responsible for every one. He was 7-of-10 passing for 76 yards, including the 26-yard touchdown connection to Quan Cosby, and McCoy also picked up the other 2 yards on a sideline scamper.

“To me, that’s a Heisman-type drive,” UT coach Mack Brown said. “He has tremendous faith. He’s strong-willed. He’s very confident, and he never thinks he’s going to lose.”

McCoy will never take sole — if any — credit for this.

When he was runner-up to Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford for the Heisman Trophy, McCoy was most disappointed to let down his team, because he considers the honor to be the “ultimate team award.”

But on Monday, McCoy carried the Longhorns to their school-record fifth straight bowl victory — and third BCS triumph in the past five years. UT rolled up a Fiesta Bowl record 486 yards of offense, and McCoy picked up all but 69 of them. He completed 41 of 59 passes for 414 passing yards and two touchdowns, and ran in for another score.

Cosby caught 14 of those passes for 171 yards and two scores.

This season, McCoy passed iconic Vince Young on the all-time UT victories list, and passed fan-favorite Major Applewhite as the all-time passing touchdown leader. And this victory was the perfect testament to the leadership he has given the Longhorns all season.

AA with the highlights …



The Pro-Prospect Watch from the Fiesta Bowl….

Ohio State

Full Name Pos Number Year Round
Chris Wells RB 28 3Jr 1
Malcolm Jenkins CB 2 4Sr 1
James Laurinaitis ILB 33 4Sr 1
Marcus Freeman OLB 1 5Sr 2
Anderson Russell S 21 4Jr 2-3
Brian Robiskie WR 80 5Sr 3rd
Justin Boren C 65 3Jr 2-3
Kurt Coleman CB 4 3Jr 2-3
Jim Cordle C 64 4Jr 3-4
Brian Hartline WR 9 4Jr 4-5
Donald Washington CB 20 4Jr 4-5
Alex Boone T 75 4Sr 5-6
Chimdi Chekwa S 5 3So 5-6
Doug Worthington DE 84 4Jr 6-7
Jake Ballard TE 86 3Jr 7-FA
Rory Nicol TE 88 5Sr 7-FA
Steve Rehring G 71 5Sr FA
Nader Abdallah DT 93 5Sr FA
Todd Boeckman QB 17 5Sr FA
Maurice Wells RB 34 4Sr FA
Nick Patterson S N 5Sr FA


Texas
Full Name Pos Number Year Round
Brian Orakpo DE 98 5Sr 1
Sergio Kindle OLB 2 3Jr 2-3
Adam Ulatoski T 74 4Jr 2-3
Colt McCoy QB 12 3Jr 2-3
Roy Miller DT 99 4Sr 3-4
Quan Crosby WR 6 4Sr 4-5
Chris Hall C 71 4Jr 5-6
Ryan Palmer CB 13 5Sr 6-7
Cedric Dockery G 55 4Sr 6-7
Jordan Shipley WR 8 4Sr 7-FA
Rashad Bobino ILB 44 5Sr FA
Aaron Lewis DE 95 4Sr FA

I was so fascinated with yesterday's turnover findings about the Cowboys, that TC and I wanted to break down the season on a game by game basis. Of 16 games, the Cowboys won the turnover battle 5 times. Ouch. Ouch. Ouch.

-	Cowboys	Turnovers	Opponents	Turnovers	-
Game	Fumbles (Lost)	INTS	Fumbles (Lost)	INTS	+/-
W @ Cle	1 (0)	1	2 (0)	0	-1
W vs Phil	2 (1)	1	3 (1)	0	-1
W @ GB	3 (1)	1	2 (1)	0	-1
L vs Wash	1 (0)	1	0	0	-1
W vs. Cin	2 (1)	1	1 (1)	1	0
L @ Arz	4 (1)	0	2 (2)	1	+2
L @ St Lou	2 (1)	3	0	0	-4
W vs TB	0	0	1 (1)	0	+1
L @ NYG	1 (1)	3	3 (2)	1	-1
W @ Wash	1 (0)	2	0	1	-1
W vs SF	1 (1)	0	2 (1)	1	+1
W vs Sea	0	1	2 (1)	1	+1
L @ Pitt	3 (2)	3	2 (2)	0	-3
W vs NYG	2 (0)	0	2 (0)	2	+2
L vs Balt	2 (0)	2	5 (1)	0	-1
L @ Phil	4 (4)	1	1 (1)	0	-4
Totals	29 (13)	20	28 (14)	8	-11

Table Tutorial

A little more on the Cowboys:

Michael Lombardi with this little detail ...

I hear the Cowboys are not sweating the notion of losing Jason Garrett to another team as a head coach. They are actually hoping this might happen.

My thoughts exactly.

Rafa's autopsy on the Defensive Line ...

In pass rush, the front took one giant step forward and one annoying step backward. Herring was running rushing drills on the first day of camp that Pasqualoni did not include in his repertoire. It took about half a season for the lessons to sink in, but Demarcus Ware finally began to incorporate better hand usage and change of direction into his rushing patterns. He appeared to finally attack left tackles with a game plan, rather than trying to out rush then on every play.

The results speak for themselves. He lead the NFL with 20 sacks, and if he can begin the '09 season the way he ended '08, the sack record will become his. On the line, Jay Ratliff showed by the team made him the first -- and only -- young DL to get a contract extension. His rush skills blossomed and he finished the year with 8
sacks, an unheard of number for a nose tackle.

The overall sack numbers jumped 28%, from a good 46 to a league-leading 59 this year. For their aggression and better technique, the d-line gets the award for the least disciplined unit on the team. They didn't take as many penalties as the offensive line, but when you consider good linemen and lines almost never take penalties, the groups 25 total penalties is unforgivable.

The 2009 Draft Order ...

Mike Mayock looks at the best Seniors in College Football with Draft prospects ...

Canada wins the Juniors ...

Canada captured its fifth straight World Junior Hockey Championship gold with a 5-1 victory over Team Sweden in front of a record crowd on Monday night.

Canadian netminder Dustin Tokarski saved his best performance of the championship for the final, turning aside 39 shots in the win. While he was shaky at times during the tournament, the native of Watson, SK was sharp against Sweden.

Tokarski's play coupled with steady pressure from Canada on Sweden's goaltender, Jacob Markstrom, were the difference. Markstrom looked rattled during the game and
there were several run-ins with Canadian players.

Head coach Pat Quinn's decision to go with Tokarski in the final was met with some skepticism following rough starts against the United States and then Russia in the semifinal game.

"I knew I had to come out better tonight and I think I did that," Tokarski told TSN after making the game.

"Pat Quinn was smart. Dustin Tokarski's pedigree is phenomenal," said TSN's Pierre McGuire. "You think about being the Memorial Cup MVP and when he needed to be at his best, he was in the gold medal game."

Debates over Canada's starting goaltender are nothing new.

"Canada went through this last year too," explained McGuire. "Craig Hartsburg had to make a decision in the Czech Republic, go with Steve Bernier or go with Steve Mason. He ended up going with Mason. He picked right and Pat Quinn picked right tonight."
Following the win, Tokarski was asked about his knack of coming up big in high-pressure games.

"It's all about battling, people can put you down and say you're not good enough but if you believe in yourself you can do anything," said the 2008 Memorial Cup MVP.
The attendance for the game was announced at 20,380, a single game record for the WJHC and the five straight gold medals equals a Canadian record for the tournament (1993-97).

"There's nothing like this," John Tavares told TSN before the medal presentation. "There's nothing like it at all. Listen to these fans. That's five, Canada."

Tavares was named most valuable player and top forward for the tournament and made a strong case to be the top pick in the 2009 NHL Entry draft with his performance in Ottawa.

Stoops to center stage, please ...

Oklahoma Coach Bob Stoops bristles when asked about his recent failures in Bowl Championship Series games.

He proudly rattles off his team’s successes in the Big 12, including appearances in seven of the last nine championship games with six victories. What he does not mention is that his teams have lost four consecutive times in the B.C.S., including the national title games at the end of the 2003 and 2004 seasons.

Nor does Stoops, whose team plays Florida for the title Thursday, point out that his only crystal trophy for winning the B.C.S. championship game bears the fingerprints of his predecessor John Blake.

The only black head football coach at Oklahoma, Blake recruited more than half of that championship team’s 22 starters, including future N.F.L. players like safety Roy Williams and linebacker Rocky Calmus.

The mere mention of that fact seems to agitate Stoops, who did recruit quarterback Josh Heupel, tailback Quentin Griffin and linebacker Torrance Marshall, all vital players in Oklahoma’s 13-2 victory against Florida State for the national title at the end of the 2000 season.

“You’ve got to go there after all these years?” Stoops said in a telephone interview last month. “Are you kidding me?”

But the matter is no joke to Blake, an associate head coach at North Carolina. A defensive tackle for Oklahoma from 1979 to ’82 under Barry Switzer, he was later an assistant for the Sooners and the Dallas Cowboys. He returned to his alma mater in December 1995 for his first head-coaching job, taking over after the Sooners went 5-5-1 in Howard Schnellenberger’s only season as the coach.

“I’m happy for Bob because sometimes one man’s sacrifice is another man’s gain, and I really believe that,” Blake said last month in a telephone interview. “Through the process, I sacrificed a whole lot and took a whole lot of negative things. But if it’s for one man to gain the glory, then I’ll just accept it. That’s fine with me.”
Although Blake’s contributions to the Sooners’ 2000 national title is barely a footnote nationally, it is known in Oklahoma. It is still occasionally fodder for sports talk radio stations and Internet message boards.

“It’s probably a no-win situation for Bob,” Al Eschbach, a longtime sports radio host in Oklahoma, said in a telephone interview. “He doesn’t want to say that John had nothing to do with it. On the other hand, he doesn’t want to give John all the credit, either, because the program was in pretty bad shape when he took it over.”
Still, Blake wonders what might have been had he been able to coach a fourth season at Oklahoma. Instead, he was fired in November 1998 after posting a 12-22 record during the worst three-year stretch in the program’s history.

“I really felt that we had the recruiting class and young talent to turn the program around,” Blake said. “I just needed another year.”

Less than two weeks later, Stoops was hired from Florida, where he had been the defensive coordinator. In his first season, the Sooners went 7-5 and lost to Mississippi in the Independence Bowl.

The next season, Stoops claimed his first and only B.C.S. title.

“We weren’t even a couple of years away,” Blake said.

We Like Sportz - language alert



Tank Johnson on Ice Skates

Why Take Care of the Ball?

I was spending plenty of time in deep thought this weekend pondering the playoffs – how certain teams made the playoffs (like Miami) and how certain teams managed to miss the playoffs despite having a better collection of talent than those that did (Dallas, anyone?).

I think the following to charts will dazzle you with the simplicity to explain much of it. Take any year that football has ever been played, and do the following experiment. Find the teams that have the 10 fewest giveaways, and chances are most if not all of those teams are in the playoffs. Find the teams with the 10 most giveaways on offense, and you will find that most if not all of the teams are not in the playoffs.

Let’s start with the teams that took care of the football this season. Here are the Top 10 (actually 11 with ties) who did not give the ball away much…Keep in mind that teams with a “*” after their name were in the 2008 playoffs:

Team	Giveaways	+/-
1. Dolphins *	13	+17
1. Giants *	13	+9
3. Colts *	17	+9
3. Titans *	17	+14
5. Redskins	18	0
6. Panthers *	19	+6
7. Chargers *	20	+4
8. Ravens *	21	+13
8. Patriots	21	+1
8. Falcons *	21	-3
8. Packers	21	+7

Table Tutorial

So, of the top 11 teams in fewest giveaways, 8 made the playoffs. Of the other 3, the Redskins and Patriots had very few takeaways from their defense for even +/- ratios, and the anomaly was Green Bay, who somehow finished a +7 and still finished only 6-10 in a pretty lousy division.

Now, the worst 10 teams:

Team	Giveaways	+/-
32. 49ers	35	-17
31. Cowboys	33	-11
30. Texans	32	-10
29. Rams	31	-5
29. Vikings *	31	-6
29. Jets	31	-1
26. Bills	30	-8
26. Broncos	30	-17
26. Cardinals *	30	0
23. Lions	29	-9

Table Tutorial

So, of the worst 10 offenses for giveaways, 8 missed the playoffs. Of the other 2, the Cardinals had an equally huge number of takeaways (30) and finished even. Then the anomaly was the Vikings who gave the ball away 31 times, finished a -6, and still made the playoffs in that same lousy NFC North.

If you are interested, the league average for a team is about 24 or 25. So, 25 giveaways is about normal, and of course, 25 takeaways would be the same. So, the Cowboys were well above the giveaways with 33, and below in the takeaways with 22.

Now, as you know, I don't believe the object of the game of football is to Not turn the ball over. The object of the game is to score more points than your opponent, and thus win the game. But, there are certain things that can equalize a difference in talent or speed or even execution. And that is gifting the ball to the other team. And in 2008, the Cowboys were far too generous.

In 2007, the Cowboys gave the ball away 24 times (33 in 2008) and took the ball away 29 times (22 in 2008) for a +5 instead of a -11. There is the difference in your record. What is bizarre? The interceptions in 2007 were 19. In 2008, 20. That is right. Tony Romo (and the backups) had 1 more INT than last season. But the fumbles rose from 5 to 13. In fact, Romo and Barber, despite both playing far less than full-time, both saw a rise in fumbles. Romo went from 3 to 5, and Barber went from 3 fumbles in '07 to 7 fumbles in '08.

More interesting year to year numbers on the defense. Last year, the Cowboys recovered just 10 fumbles. This year, 14! But that must mean that Interceptions dropped dramatically. They did. Instead of 19 INTs, in 2008, they only picked off 8passes. After adding Pac Man, Mike Jenkins, and getting that Roy Williams off the field, they picked off only 8 passes all season. Ouch. In 2007, All 4 starting DB's had multiple INTs. In 2008, only Newman had more than 1 pick.

While we are talking turnovers, let's finish our tracking of game by game turnovers and the 100 yard rushers, and 300 yard passers.

Final Turnover Data

In weeks 16 and 17, the winner of the turnover battle was 23-2. That put the final numbers almost to where they are every year. Almost every year they have done this, the final numbers are between 80% and 85%. Well, in 2008, the final numbers were 159-44, for a final win percentage of 78.3%. Regardless of the teams or the home field advantage, if you win the turnover battle, you win 4 out of every 5 games.

Final 100 yard rusher Data

Weeks 16 and 17 saw the 100 yard rusher actually only go 15-6, with Steven Jackson bringing down the average as he ran for 100+ in both games for in a losing effort. But, the final season numbers for teams that had a runner get to 100 yards was a convincing 102-29, for a win percentage of 77.9%.

Final 300 yard passer Data

And, just to prove that throwing for 300 yards has almost no correlation to winning, we have tracked this again. The final two weeks, QB's with 300+ yards were 5-6. That put the season record at 46-27-1, for a win percentage of 63%.

Here are some final thoughts from TC the intern who compiled my data this year:

The thing about turnovers that stood out to me was that teams that win the turnover battle by two are equally as likely to win as teams that win it by three. That was not the case all season, but that's how it ended up. It seems clear that a two-turnover lead is a pretty commanding one that even great teams will usually not come back from. Another thing that stood out was that there were only seven weeks when Drew Brees didn't make the 300-yard passer list, and one of them was his bye week. I know he almost broke Marino's record, but looking at it this way put a new light on it for me. Especially because 100-yard rushers are more rare than 300-yard
passers.

Tell me this isn't comedy - Here is Rey Malaluga, top draft prospect and Erin Andrews...