Stars Mailbag

I wanted to share with the masses some fo the feedback I received based on the "Problems with the Stars" column I wrote a few days back, after the Devils-Rangers back-to-back debacle:

I think I love you more and more Bob. I have been saying this for 2 years!! Robidas is the perfect #3. Grossman might have potential to be a #2 (he has shut down Big Joe in the playoffs), but his passing is never going to compete with the high-end puck moving D-men. The Stars need someone who can make the first pass out of the zone. My distaste for the Stars has risen to a level where I only check the box scores and tsn.ca headlines to see if they have made a trade for a D-man yet. This makes me very sad. I am dreading what I am going to do for sports in February after the SuperBowl.

You could have also mentioned how not having a #1/2 D pair forces you to play forwards on the point on the PP, because that's all we have that can bring the heat.

Also as a side-note. The Hurricanes won a cup a few years ago with a no-name defense.. so as impractical as it is, it has happened. Cam Ward stood on his friggin noggin and was the Conn Smythe Winner to pull it off though.

Sonny

Thanks, Sonny. But, I would not ignore these guys. I think they are going through an extremely tough spell, but the few things that fire me up include that they have plenty of quality youth that is showing us that a better day is not far away, and they are not far out of the mix for this year as it stands. I think once Marc Crawford and Joe Nieuwendyk are given a full chance to put some pieces in place that have a chance to execute their vision, we will see things pick up dramatically. At least, that is my hope.
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Bob,

Nice analysis on the d-man payroll thread. I guess I shouldn't be surprised that we rank dead last, but it is pretty eye opening. I completely agree with you on defensive depth of this team. I love Robidas, since Zubie is gone, he is by far my favorite player... but he is being asked to do way too much as a #1 guy.

I will, however, respectively disagree with you about Turco. I've been tracking the quality of the pucks that go by him this year, and he has just been horrible. I don't know what's going on with him, but it seems to me that he is no longer capable of being a franchise goalie. He just lets in way too many soft goals. (See goal #1, #2, #3 from last night.) It doesn't matter who is playing in front of you if you are going to let in an unobstructed 60 footer on the short side.

Keep up the good work.

Hockey John

Hockey John, it seems to me that Marty's foe is sometimes between his ears. It seems that when things weigh on his mind, his play suffers. That can be any number of elements, but I would say this season it is both contract uncertainty and perhaps a lack of confidence that he is surrounded by a proper supporting cast to help stop enemy attacks.

That being said, a true "franchise goalie" can block all circumstances out and still rise up and pull the team with him. He needs to be better. He needs to be able to carry this team. And he hasn't, yet, since the '08 playoff run. I do however, have a hard time forgetting about Vancouver '07, Anaheim '08, San Jose '08, and even Game 5 in Detroit in '08, too. Marty has proven he can play at a certain level, and since his blueline has been stripped down, he has not approached it.

Part of it is on him. But, how much? There is the rub, and something the front office has to figure out correctly. It is one thing to bid Marty a fond farewell when his contract expires, but then what? Who is between your pipes then?

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Bob,

I just read your article off the stars blog and I couldn’t agree with you more. The stars do not have a huge presence on the blue line, a go-to tandem to put out there when the other teams number 1 line comes out. Robida and Grossman are ok but they are not a physical presence nor are they a Nick Lidstrom. Prime example, last night Gaborick goes offsides and swats Robidas down to the ice like he was nothing and also I can’t remember who it was but that left winger that took the puck to the goal running over Marty, ripping his helmet off. Razor even said that guy knew what he was doing and my belief is that unless Barch or Ott are on the ice the other team knows no one is going to come at them. It is also oblivious that the Stars don’t have a lot of depth in the minors because when we had injurys a couple weeks ago they brought Fortunious up to play in 7 or 8 games. I know I was his first games but he is a little runt and was getting run over and he had to be a negative player. They need to make a sign or two at the deadline to get a couple guys in here, now will they do that with the current ownership, probably not but they will not contend until that happens.

Any chance Zubov comes back for a late season run?

Marty was terrible last night, those goals should never go in from those distances.

Scott

Scott, to me, that was the most disappointing thing about the road-trip. I felt this team wasn't engaged. When someone runs your goalie, or when Sean Avery is challenging every member of your team, you have to stick up for yourself and eachother. I believe in the worlfpack mentality. If you don't have it, you don't have a chance. I needed Barch or Ott or Morrow or someone to stand up to him, and for whatever reason, I didn't see it. That is discouraging, and if it becomes a trend, it must be addressed. In the NHL, if you are not there for eachother, then you are not there at all.

And I don't think Zubov is in the plans. I think that is a band-aid. If we can get Zubov at 25 years old again, I am in. But, we might need a time machine for that, and I am all out of crystals.

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You could not have been more correct with this blog. The correlation of Turco's performance to his Defenseman is so true. The one thing I cannot decide, is Turco's confidence gone due to the defense in front of him, his skills are deteriorating due to age or both. Regardless what it is, he has really sucked as of late. With their AHL goalie winning the player of the month honors I think it is time to bring him up.


David

Brent Krahn, who is 28 this year, did win the AHL goaltender of the month last month, and Matt Climie is approaching his 27th birthday and handles the rest of the duty in Austin. I am not saying they cannot help you, because I have no idea. But, I do know that 28 is an awfully old prospect. I guess we may see.

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Greetings,

Very logical approach Mr. Sturm. I wonder a couple of things:

1. Does the salary spent on defensemen correlate to the current conference standings?

2. Every Program Manager I have worked for has a slush fund.

3. We have a trade deadline coming up. Is it reasonable for Stars management to spend for a #1 defenseman and actually/commit to keeping him on something longer than a 1 year contract in order to give the younger guys a rotation?

4. Are Mr. Ribero, Mr. Richards and Mr. Modano passing on their tribal knowledge of the face-off circle to the others?

Lastly, I am one of two Stars fans here in beautiful Rocket Center WV. (my wife is the other). Would you be good enough to forward my concerns to the appropriate Stars management staff?

James

James:

1. No. No team is spending more this season on player salaries than the Toronto Maple Leafs. Only 2 teams have fewer points in the NHL than the Maple Leafs. Money isn't everything, but it sure doesn't hurt.

2. I don't believe that is the case in this NHL.

3. I think the thing to do was to get in the mix for a free agent in the summer of '08 when you actually had some money. But, they settled on Sean Avery. Since then, the wallet has been empty, and now I don't think there will be adding of payroll until the Rangers are sold. So, every dollar in must be a dollar out.

4. I would think so, but, remember, Ribeiro has a career faceoff win percentage of about 45%, and even though Brad Richards is over 50% since becoming a Dallas Star, he is 48% for his career. Only Modano has been better than 50 in his career. 52% is his career mark, so I am not sure this entire team has anything that approaches the '99 Stars. Check out what they rolled out there (who took more than 200 faceoffs that year):

Nieuwendyk 63%
Carbonneau 53%
Modano 51%
Hrkac 48%
Langenbrunner 45%
Skrudland 45%

The team was at 53%, a mark that would often lead the NHL. And Nieuwendyk's 63% was 740 wins in 1170 draws! Zenon Konopka of the Lightning leads the league at 62% this year. Not very familiar with Zenon's work.

Game Plan Friday: Philadelphia Eagles, Part 3

(Photo, Courtesy: Sportatorium)

Every week this season, we have provided a very lengthy game preview that looks at every aspect of the game in great detail.

In fact, here are the first two we did in this very match-up: Week 9 At Philadelphia , and then Week 17 vs Philadelphia here .

They cover many scenarios and talking points at great length, so rather than just repeat things that have already been covered, I thought today I would change things up and spend this day-before-the-3rd-meeting listing the reasons why I think the Cowboys have a very good chance at ending their playoff drought.

So, let's get down to business:

This game on Saturday night is one that if I am an Eagles fan, I must rely on 2 things to assure myself that this season is not about to end:

1) - History. History is a strong indicator that in a playoff game, we should always believe in Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid against pretty much any foe the NFC has to offer. One thing that Reid/McNabb have going for them is a very impressive resume that suggests that NFC powers have come and gone through this decade, but the Eagles are always in the mix, and the Eagles always get out of the 1st Round. 10-7 in the playoffs under Reid, and 7-0 in the 1st Round. They don't do this 1-and-done thing.

My counter to that of course would be that the Eagles of our memory banks had players like Brian Dawkins, Jon Runyan, Corey Simon, Jevon Kearse, and then the best DC in football, Jim Johnson, that masterminded the Eagles defense in a way that freaked out QBs from the opening snap. They had an offensive line that could always hold its own. They even had guys like Jeremiah Trotter and Brian Westbrook back in their primes. And the 2009 version has none of those things.

On the other hand, we have the Cowboys being coached by the winningest coach who has never won a playoff game, and a QB who has never stepped up to the plate and delivered at the most important moment. This could be classic coyote vs roadrunner, yet again. I just think it is Tony Romo's time. Time to slay that dragon that has haunted him. He has been too focused and too sharp. He looks too determined.

Nevertheless, if the game tomorrow night comes down to a reading of resumes between Reid/McNabb and Phillips/Romo, then the Cowboys are in big, big trouble.

2) - Puncher's chance. The phrase I have used all week to discuss the fundamental match-up issues that the Eagles have with the Cowboys is the simple explanation that "Styles make fights". It doesn't mean that the Eagles aren't as good or better as a football team than the Cowboys. But, when they are on the same field playing eachother, there are certain things that make a head-to-head match-up a very poor scenario for the Eagles. The Cowboys strengths are the Eagles weaknesses. This is never good, and this is why the scoreboard in the first two meetings looks like it does.

But, there is always a puncher's chance when two good teams are playing eachother. In boxing, when one fighter just doesn't match-up well with another, we anticipate that he will try to get in those one or two dramatic fight-changing punches and erase any sort of disadvantage that there might be. Inside the ring, we have the shocking knock-out. In football, we, of course, have the defensive Pick-6, the special teams play that rocks the game, and most importantly with these Eagles, the home-run, 1 or 2 play drive that strikes like a snake in the weeds. And make no mistake; the Eagles are lethal and dangerous in all of these situations.

There must be no counting of chickens before the game is finished. There can be no "Mission Accomplished" banner on the flight deck until this enemy is vanquished.

Beyond that? I see issues all over the field that give the Eagles fits. In no particular order, here they are:

* The Eagles blitz does not have quite the same effect on Tony Romo that it once did or that it generally does against QBs across the league. Of course, it should be noted that we don't know for sure if A) Romo is much better at handling this legendary challenge, B) if the Eagles blitz is still the legendary challenge it was a few years back when they had all of the pieces and Johnson dialing it up, or C) Both.

We can visit for hours on this discussion of whether or not the Eagles were playing vanilla on Sunday in the regular season finale, but at the root of the discussion must be the following question: Does the blitz work as well against Tony Romo as it once did? In Philadelphia, Romo torched them on 3rd Down blitzes. If you don't believe me, the video is all here for you to see on Football 301 from that week .

My opinion is that the Eagles were taken out of their blitz. If you touch an oven and it burns your hand, you generally stop touching the oven.

That doesn't mean they won't blitz tomorrow night more than ever before. Sean McDermott is under immense pressure in the Philadelphia media and given that he has been on the job for 15 minutes and is following a legend, he will not do what he thinks he should do - he will do what he must do. Blitz and blitz and blitz. So, now, it is final exam time for the Dallas Offense and its QB Tony Romo.

* The Eagles are too undersized to deal with the Cowboys power runs out of "12", "13", and "22". When they Cowboys dedicate themselves to early down power runs, some teams have the ability to stand up to them because of their front 7 beef. The Eagles do not have this. They have been playing all season without a Mic linebacker (they have tried 5 different ones) and they already have undersized DEs and do not qualify as stout just about anywhere. We saw it on Sunday and in Philly. The Cowboys stick Deon Anderson, Martellus Bennett, and or John Phillips out there with Jason Witten, and run for big results (10 carries for 101 yards out of "22" on Sunday) and the Eagles know this. This is another reason they are careful with the early down blitzes, because they know if they are not gap-sound, the Cowboys can gash them for 50.

* The Eagles Defensive Backs are not what we thought they were. Again, I don't dispute the fact that they all make big plays on occasion, but as a group, I don't feel this is anywhere close to what it was in the days of Dawkins and Lito. Now, they have no safeties that scare you, they have Asante Samuel who guesses and gambles a ton (and who Romo and Austin went right at on Sunday), and Sheldon Brown who has been torched by Romo for a double-move TD in each meeting so far this year. What makes matters worse, of course, is that their nickel back Joselio Hansen was picked on by Patrick Crayton in the slot, and there seems to be no answer for Jason Witten - unlike in the days of Dawkins, too. Do you think I believe they screwed up the Brian Dawkins decision?

And on the other side of the ball:

* The Eagles seem to have a hard time with their OL blocking the Cowboys 4 rushers in the nickel. 93-90-72-94 get there quite a bit on their own, so why would the Cowboys blitz anymore than they should just to keep McNabb honest? Rush 4, dedicate a 5th (LB) as a spy, and now you can get man-under, 2 deep, or press coverage with a safety high, or any number of conservative pass coverages. So, now the Cowboys respond by making sure that although the WR screen is always available, the chances of getting DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin behind the defense are growing a bit rare. Oh, there will be a shot or two, and those can change the game, but it seems like the Cowboys have had about 120 snaps in 2 games to prove that they have as good a plan as anyone to limit the Eagles big strike attack.

The key is to make the Eagles drive down the field. If they do, then you force them to convert 3rd and short, which is not a specialty at all. Make them run the ball. Make them march it, and do not let them get behind you. If you do this, we have seen the Eagles get frustrated.

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Overall, this game gives anyone uneasiness as it pertains to who you are playing and what is at stake.

But, from a strategic football standpoint, the Cowboys seem to have a distinct advantage. Add to this the idea they are playing at home, and the idea that this game has so much riding on it - not just the 2009 season, but full career legacies in some cases - I just don't think the Cowboys let this one get away.

But, a giant punt return here or a 45-yard pass interference there, and obviously, we know that this thing can turn on a dime.

Expect some moments where you may reach for the Pepto Bismol, but I think your drought is about to end at 4,761 days. I really do.

Cowboys 27, Eagles 21

Past Issues:

Philadelphia Eagles Game Plan

Washington Redskins Game Plan

New Orleans Saints Game Plan

San Diego Chargers Game Plan

New York Giants Game Plan

Oakland Raiders Game Plan

Washington Redskins Game Plan

Green Bay Packers Game Plan

Eagles Game Plan

Seattle Seahawks Game Plan

Atlanta Falcons Game Plan

Kansas City Game Plan

Denver Game Plan

Carolina Game Plan

Giants Game Plan

Tampa Bay Game Plan

The Problems With The Stars

I have my own unique views of the game of hockey, and I am not asking you to necessarily adopt mine to be yours.

Many of my views are traditional and non controversial; special teams and goaltending, right?

Others, that I have grown to feel strongly about with each season that I study this sport are perhaps open for debate amongst the masses, and that is why I am happy to present them to you to see what you think.

They are:

1) - Faceoffs are vital, and you must win your share. If you do not, you start the majority of each sequence chasing the game. Faceoff wins lead to possession. Possession leads to opportunity. Opportunity leads to scoring chances. And scoring chances lead to goals. Of course, those are just the offensive applications - on defense it helps you kill off a game with some defensive zone wins that lead to clears. I am sure there are exceptions to this rule of mine, but I always feel that the best teams in the NHL are really good on the dot. The Red Wings, the Penguins (last year, at least), the Sharks, the Blackhawks and the '99 Stars are all good examples of good teams that had that special ability to win the draw.

2) - Great teams have a great group of defensemen. Again, I am sure there are exceptions to this rule, but show me a Stanley Cup contender, and there seems to generally be a Norris Trophy candidate somewhere nearby. And, even if there is not an exceptional #1 D-man, there always must be a very dependable group of 4-6 guys back there that you can count on.

Guys who can handle the cycle (and beat it), guys who can move bodies from the crease, and most importantly sometimes, guys who can make that 1st pass to get out of the zone.

Consider it a starting pitching rotation or an offensive line. It is not always going to find its way to a cover of a magazine or a tv promo for an upcoming game: "Come see Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals against the fundamentally-sound-lock-it-down-and-get-it-out Dallas Stars defensemen!" But it is what wins in this league on the most consistent basis.

So, why am I bringing these two items up? Well, as I watch both legs of a very forgettable trip through NJ and NYC this week, it again occurs to me that while there are many components of the 2009-10 Dallas Stars that I do like, these two particular components are not something the Stars can do.

They don't win faceoffs; 27th in the NHL this year. They simply have a group of centers that do a number of things very, very well - but winning faceoffs will never be one of them.

And this blueline just simply does not possess the quality to win in the National Hockey League.

Now, this is where I am going to generate hate mail and argument so let me be clear: I think the Stars have some guys who are fine NHL defensemen. Stephane Robidas and Trevor Daley can certainly help any team win. Karlis Skrastins has been quite a find for $1.1m and serves as some sort of Craig Ludwig shot blocking grit guy that every blue-line needs. Jeff Woywitka is an ideal #6/#7 insurance policy that every team needs.

And then there is a group of kids that show different levels of promise. The best is Nik Grossman who I have very high hopes for and generally demonstrates consistency and quality from night to night. Matt Niskanen and Mark Fistric could not be more different players in their styles, but they both together suffer from the growing pains of finding out how difficult it is to play on the blueline in the NHL.

It is not that individually they are not interesting parts. To me, it is that as a group, they do not constitute a group that demands fear and respect at this collective points in their careers. Instead of a pair of studs (#1 and #2 D-men), a pair of solids (#3 and #4), and a pair of dependables (#5 and #6), because of how the Stars have built their team, I estimate that they have a group that may have a group that has a 3 #3-#4 types (Robidas, Daley and Grossman), 3 #5-#6 types (Niskanen, Fistric, and Skrastins).

I think Robidas in particular plays his tail off and squeezes every drop of effort and ability out of his resilient frame - but I personally wonder if the Stars ask too much of him and exhaust the poor fellow by St Patrick's Day. Wouldn't he be an ideal #3 instead of an over-taxed #1?

So, where am I going with all of this? Allow me to show you what I have been looking at recently. I have to ask myself if Stars management (past and present) agree with me, since they have so little of their resources dedicated to the defensemen group. As Razor pointed out in the 1st period, the Stars are well below the salary cap. Given the Stars are spending, according to Razor, $46m (including almost $2m to Sean Avery) we see that the Stars are ranked 27th in the NHL in payroll. I use the website NHL Numbers who suggest the Stars are closer to $49m, but there is no dispute about the Stars being $9.85 million dollars under the salary cap. Razor also suggested the Stars are merely $4m above the salary floor.

Now, the amount they have to spend is not the decision of the personnel department (I am reasonably sure that they would be happy to add $10m in players). That, obviously, is an ownership issue that is tied to things like the economy, the Texas Rangers sale, the Liverpool stadium and debt, and many, many other things that I don't care to speculate about - partially because these are the types of things that get me in trouble.

But, given that they are spending $49m, let's at least work off of that internal budget to see how the money is distributed:

Position	Total	% of Payroll
Forwards	$34.3m	69%
Defense	$8.7m	17.5%
Goal	$6.7m	13.4%
Totals	$49.7m	100%

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Obviously, this is an eye-opening way to look at the payroll. Considering that there are as many as 20 different forwards who share in that amount, 10 different defensemen, and 3 goalies, you have to account for averaging each department to get a true feel for things.

Also, we must remember that contract size does not always tell the story. However, it usually does. There is a good reason a Porsche cost more than a Hyundai. But, in the NHL, if you buy a Hyundai, it is still going to have to race Porsches every night, so it is important that you are careful with your budget.

With that in mind, I put the following chart together to show what Western Conference teams have chosen to spend on their defense corps. I believe this will show that the Stars must strongly consider a reallocation of funds at their earliest opportunity.

Rank	Team	Money on Dmen
1.	Detroit	$23.8m
2.	Calgary	$23.4m
3.	Edmonton	$23.2m
4.	Vancouver	$21.4m
5.	Colorado	$20.8m
6.	Minnesota	$19.0m
7.	Chicago	$18.8m
8.	St Louis	$18.7m
9.	San Jose	$17.9m
10.	Anaheim	$17.3m
11.	Phoenix	$16.2m
12.	Los Angeles	$14.9m
13.	Columbus	$14.2m
14.	Nashville	$12.6m
15.	Dallas	$8.7m

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Dead last in money allocated to the blue-line, and it isn't even close. So, my logical conclusion when watching a Dallas team that struggles with getting the puck out and dealing with size and the cycle, is that the Stars must upgrade this portion of the squad.

You are likely saying, "Bob, what about the forwards? All of that money, and they score 2 goals on a 2 game road-trip?". Fair question, but when I watch the Stars, I see a few things that I trace directly back to defense.

1) - Marty Turco's erratic performance. So, with Boucher, Zubov, and Norstrom on his blue-line, he plays some of the best goal of his career in the '07 and '08 playoffs. Then, when those three guys are subtracted at the exact same time, he forgets how to play? I don't totally buy it. He needs to be better, but you don't think Hatcher, Matvichuk, and Zubov made Belfour better?

2) - The Territorial War - I don't have stats to back this up, because to my knowledge, nobody keeps these numbers, but, I would love to know how much time the puck is in the Stars defensive zone versus the offensive zone. I feel like in most games, the puck is around Marty far more than it is in the other end. To me, that speaks to your group in the back struggling to win the puck battles and to distribute the puck up the ice like they have in past years. Of course, this has plenty to do with forwards supporting, too, but in the end, I just don't see enough quality on the blue-line in the Stars' defensive end.

Anyway, I know this sounds like I am being critical of the Stars current group. I am not. I think everyone is doing everything they can. I am just not sure the Stars are built with a quality blue-line in mind. Now, in fairness to the current Joe Nieuwendyk/Marc Crawford Stars, they have not had a chance to address this. They took over a team that had this team built this way, and the easiest solution is if the ownership tell Joe to go spend that extra $10m on a #1 and #2 defense pair. But, assuming that is not realistic, the Stars may have to trade pieces to make this puzzle fit a bit better.

What do you think?

NFL Playoff Fun

This morning, I wanted to update you on a few things that have appeared on the blog in the past, but we lead off with some new territory:

Item #1 - The 4,000 Yard Club.

Those of us who love the NFL and dabble in stats could not help take note of the new trend in the NFL that has been slowly moving like an iceberg for years, but has taken to a new extreme: Prolific Passing is at an all-time high. In fact, the guys at the NFL office tweeted this yesterday:

NFL QBs set record for most 4,000-yard passing seasons (10) & most 25 TD pass seasons (12). Previous bests were 7 & 10 in '07.

A decade or two ago, when someone would have a silly yardage season (and 4,000 yards used to be silly) it was always justified as that QB played on a team that was coming from behind and passing the ball because his team was lousy. Put another way, the only teams with gaudy passing stats were not good teams.

Times have changed. I wonder if the NFL has gone too far with its further evolution of the passing rules that now make it almost impossible for the defense to have a fair chance.

Regardless, football coaches and strategists figure out how to use the new rules to their advantage, and the sport has evolved to a point where passing for huge numbers is no longer a means to come from behind - rather it has become almost the exclusive way to win in this era.

As you saw above, there have never been as many 4,000 yard passers. And, 7 of those 10 made the playoffs, with 2 more (Schaub and Roethlisberger) in the mix until the final day, and the 10th was Eli Manning, who was part of an amazing collapse in the last 2 weeks of the season by the Giants.

All of the top 6 seeds in the NFL playoffs had 4,000/25 TD QBs, and Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb would both be added to this stack if they had been healthy for the entire season.

Only 3 teams made the playoffs with out a member of this 4,000/25 TD club, really. And they were all in the AFC. The Bengals with Carson Palmer, the Ravens with Joe Flacco, and the Jets with the rookie Mark Sanchez. None of these 3 are any more than a longshot to win multiple playoff games this year. And, if rated in a power poll, these might be teams #10, #11, and #12 in the tournament.

Quarterback	Team	Yards	TDs	Record
Schaub	Hou	4770	29	9-7
Manning	Ind	4500	33	14-2*
Romo	Dal	4483	26	11-5*
Rodgers	GB	4434	30	11-5*
Brady	NE	4398	28	10-6*
Brees	NO	4388	34	13-3*
Roethlisberger	Pit	4328	26	9-7
Rivers	SD	4254	28	13-3*
Favre	Min	4202	33	12-4*
Manning	NY	4021	27	8-8

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(* = playoff team)

Item #2 - 6 New teams in the playoffs in 2009.

This chart below shows you that predicting the playoffs is next to impossible every year. My picks in preseason?

Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, Saints, Seahawks, and Falcons would make the NFC Playoffs, and the Patriots, Colts, Bengals, Steelers, Chargers, and Titans would make the AFC Playoffs. I had the Saints-Chargers in the Super Bowl, with the Saints winning it all.

Anyway, the chart below demonstrates that picking the teams requires that you insert about 6 teams in this year's playoffs who were not in last year's edition. For whatever reason, the NFL features 50% turnover in the tournament every year. Below is proof:

Year	# New	New Teams making Playoffs
1992	6	Min, SF, Phi, Mia, Pit, KC
1993	5	Det, GB, NYG, Oak, Den
1994	5	Chi, Mia, Clev, NE, SD
1995	4	Phi, Atl, Ind, Buf
1996	5	Min, Car, Jac, Den, NE
1997	5	NYG, Det, TB, KC, Mia
1998	5	Arz, Dal, Atl, NYJ, Buf
1999	7	Det, TB, StL, Was, Sea, Ten, Ind
2000	6	Phi, NYG, NO, Den, Bal, Oak
2001	6	SF, GB, Chi, Pit, NE, NYJ
2002	5	NYG, Atl, Ten, Cle, Ind
2003	8	Stl, Car, Dal, Sea, NE, KC, Bal, Den
2004	5	Min, Atl, SD, Pit, NYJ
2005	7	Was, Car, TB, NYG, Chi, Cin, Jac
2006	7	Phi. Dal, NO, SD, Bal, NYJ, KC
2007	6	Was, TB, GB, Pit, Ten, Jac
2008	7	Phi, Atl, Car, Min, Arz, Mia, Bal
2009	6	GB, Dal, NO, NE, NYJ, Cin

Table Tutorial

And, Item #3 - Home Field Advantage?

This table simply tracks the success or lack thereof of higher seeds and home teams in the NFL Playoffs. Note that in the last 2 seasons, the home teams are 10-10. The AFC and NFC Seeds columns show which teams advanced to the AFC and NFC Championship Games. Then the "*" shows who made the Super Bowl from each conference.

Year	Home Record	AFC Seeds	NFC Seeds
1990	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
1991	8-2	1* vs 2	1* vs 2
1992	5-5	2 vs 4*	1 vs 2*
1993	8-2	1* vs 3	1* vs 2
1994	8-2	1 vs 2*	1* vs 2
1995	7-3	2* vs 5	1* vs 3
1996	8-2	2* vs 5	1* vs 2
1997	6-4	2 vs 4*	1 vs 2*
1998	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
1999	7-3	1 vs 4*	1* vs 2
2000	8-2	2 vs 4*	1* vs 2
2001	7-3	1 vs 2*	1* vs 3
2002	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
2003	6-4	1* vs 3	1 vs 3*
2004	6-4	1 vs 2*	1* vs 2
2005	4-6	2 vs 6*	1* vs 5
2006	8-2	3* vs 4	1* vs 2
2007	5-5	1* vs 3	2 vs 5*
2008	5-5	2* vs 6	4* vs 6
2009		vs	vs

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(* = Super Bowl Team)

Most compelling piece of information I found here? 13 of 19 years (68%), in the NFC, the championship game has been the #1 seed vs the #2 seed - proving the bye week and home field mean something.

In the AFC, it has happened only 7 times (37%). Not sure what that means other than the fact that maybe the NFC has had better top seeds that make it less likely to have upsets - like the Cowboys and 49ers. On the other hand, maybe the AFC has had many playoffs where top to bottom the margin is very close.

And, in 19 years, #1 NFC has played #1 AFC only twice. 1991 and 1993.

The Triumphant Return Of TC's Drive Of The Week

It's the end of the year, most of this week's games were boring, I think it's time for me to indulge and focus on the Bears. They played the Lions, so my heart rate can definitely handle this.
The Lions had just tied up the game at 20. Hester took the ball from his endzone on the kickoff and made it only to the 15.

On the first play, the Bears ran your standard, every-non-zone-blocking-team-in-the-league-runs-it power run play. In this particular edition, tight end Greg Olsen takes on the defensive end one-on-one. He holds his ground long enough for Forte to get by him, but the end fought off the block just after that to chase Forte down from behind after five yards. Everyone else did well enough: the pulling guard stopped the strongside linebacker from making the play. The fullback blocked the middle linebacker. The left tackle and guard double-teamed the defensive tackle and moved him a little before the guard pulled off to... do nothing. The play was over before the safety could get into the action (in part because he was so tentative). Forte did a nice job at the end of the run of falling forward to make this a five-yard run.

Football 301: Decoding Garrett - Week 17

The Final regular season 301 breakdown of the year. We now have full season data that I will work off of for the entire off-season in that way that I do, but if you would like your own copy of my spreadsheet, I will be happy to email it to you, or you can simply click on this link and save it yourself.

On Sunday, the Cowboys controlled the game with their offense. Another performance that we could only suggest was spot on. Look at the power run game. I don't just make this stuff up for arguments. The fact remains that in normal down and distance, the Cowboys run the ball with great results. On Sunday, 10 rushes out of "22" personnel, and the final damage was 10 for 101 yards. 10 yards a carry? In the NFL?

For the season, the Cowboys ran out of "22" 140 times for 812 yards or 5.80 yards per carry, despite being 77% run out of that look. That means the defense knows you are running it, and still coughing up 5.8 per snap. This is easily the Cowboys most productive run look, with no other package getting more than 321 yards this season. That was "12" personnel, which had but 4.28 yards per carry.

5.8 for "22", 4.3 for "12" - and there you see why Deon Anderson will always have a job here. FB instead of a WR is the only difference between those 2 looks.


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	2	1-2	0-0
12	8	51	4-14	4-37
13	8	22	6-13	2-9
21	5	42	4-17	1-25
22	12	115	10-101	2-14
31	0	0	0-0	0-0
WC22	0	0	0-0	0-0
S21	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	3	17	0-0	3-17
S11	18	172	4-34	14-138
S12	9	50	0-0	9-50
Knee	3	-3	3-(-3)	9-50
Totals	67	469	32-179	35-290

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Definition of the Personnel Groups, click here .

One statistical observation about the shotgun package would be this: Since the Washington Home game, S12 has been run 57 times, and 56 of them were passes (98.2%). S11 136 snaps, 22 runs/114 passes - (83% passes). This seems odd, of course - if you insert Martellus for Crayton when you go to S12 instead of S11, you think that would give you more of a running posture. Instead, they are 98% pass with Martellus (in shotgun) and 83% pass with 3 WR in S11. Odd. I wonder if Garrett is aware of this pattern. I also think Bennett's pass catching ability is more noteable considering this evidence.

Football 301: Targets and Sacks - Week 17

Let's take a look at another pretty masterful job by the offense and Tony Romo in the regular season finale against the Eagles. If he can do it again, the Cowboys will get themselves a coveted playoff victory.

Target Distribution:

Targets - Week 17 vs Philadelphia

Name	Targets	Catches	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Austin	8	7	90	4/0/0
Witten	7	6	76	3/1/0
Crayton	6	4	99	3/1/1
Jones	3	3	3	1/0/0
Phillips	2	2	14	0/0/0
Ogletree	1	1	15	1/0/0
Barber	4	1	14	1/0/0
Williams	1	0	0	0/0/0
Bennett	1	0	0	0/0/0
Totals	33	24	311	13/2/1

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We see it every week, so it has stopped being a surprise on any level, but Miles Austin and Jason Witten continue to secure the spots as the #1 and #2 or the #2 and #1. Either way, these are the two that make this whole thing work, and can be counted upon for production regardless of the opponent. They are the typical "they are going to do what they do" guys who are so valuable around the league.

This week, they were joined by who we surely feel was the #2 WR for much of the season, Patrick Crayton. I know that Roy Williams TD numbers and catch numbers are not that far apart from Crayton's, but I can name many of Crayton's big plays. They were clutch and they were needed. Roy seems like the numbers he did put up were often put up with no real impact. Sorry, but it is true.

Season Target Distribution To Date:

Name	Targets	Catches	%	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Witten	124	94	76%	1030	46/2/3
Austin	124	81	65%	1320	43/11/2
Williams	86	38	44%	596	21/7/1
Crayton	67	37	54%	622	20/5/2
Barber	36	26	72%	222	11/0/0
Bennett	30	15	50%	159	8/0/0
Choice	22	15	68%	132	7/0/0
Jones	22	19	86%	112	5/0/0
Hurd	12	7	58%	132	3/1/1
Phillips	9	6	67%	62	3/0/0
Ogletree	8	7	87%	96	5/0/0
Anderson	3	1	33%	5	0/0/
Totals	543	347	64%	4483	178/26/9

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The Morning After: Cowboys 24, Eagles 0

2009 NFC East Division Champions.

How many thought this was a likely result to the regular season when the Giants were running away with the division at 5-0? Or when the Cowboys lost in Denver to drop to 2-2, and needed overtime at Arrowhead to keep from going 2-3? But, 2 1/2 months later, the Cowboys are 11-5 and have won the division.

Good for them. And, I mean that. The Wade Phillips' Cowboys have been painted with the same brush since that 2007 finale against the Giants - all sizzle, no steak. But, this 2009 crew swore they were a different animal. Through subtractions and maturation, they claimed that the leadership had shifted, and that because of that, this is not the same ol' Wade Phillips-led Cowboys.

This group was different. This group would not crumble at the moment of truth, they said. But, I was skeptical when they started slow in September. I was even more skeptical when they started December with 2 straight typical close-but-no-cigar losses. At 8-5, the playoffs were in great doubt yet again. And the Divisional crown seemed like it had floated away.

But, then something changed with this team. Some suggest it was DeMarcus Ware's injury against the Chargers. Others say it was Tashard Choice addressing the team the next day. Personally, I don't have a clue what happened, but the end result to me is watching a Cowboys team that doesn't seem to play like a team that keeps waiting for something bad to happen anymore.

Surely, you know what I am talking about. This team, for the better part of 3 seasons, looked like a team that was under such severe pressure - be it real or imagined - that they were like the kid at the recital that could play the song in practice perfectly, but when the show started he felt something warm running down his leg. Their mental block, perhaps best demonstrated by their QB, was that of a team that was afraid to fail - rather than a team that was ready to win.

Now, if they were a reflection of their QB, I would imagine that we can all understand why he was a mental wreck. Being the QB of the Dallas Cowboys is tough under any scenario. Then, the last two playoff exits from a team riding a 4,755-day drought between playoff wins were either fully blamed on him, or merely the lion's share of the blame was heaped on the undrafted QB. Then, between a high profile "private" life and a high profile spat with Terrell Owens, suddenly the kid is an absolute sports-talk lightning rod from sea to shining sea.

And the bigger the situation became, the more everything came crashing down on his head, culminating in his confusing post-game address to his public following the Eagles 44-6 thrashing of the Cowboys at the end of the 2008 campaign.

He went into hiding, and before we saw much of him again, he had shed both the high profile romance and the unwanted alpha male in his huddle. So would his 2009 be different?

The Regular season sure was. Career high in QB Rating, Yards, and most importantly, both the fewest interceptions and the fewest fumbles of any season in his career. By a huge margin. He looks composed, calm, and in control. And, he plays like it. And whether this made the team click gradually - as if they saw him trying to carry them during those first 2 losses in December - or if something else triggered this perfect December storm, I don't know. But, the team showed up in New Orleans like a new team. A team that those of us who watch this team closely didn't recognize. They were a team that was playing like they don't give a flip. They are tired of playing scared and nervous and "not to lose". They are done doing that. And what we have seen the last 3 weeks is a team that is going for it. They are playing to win. They are playing with confidence and dare I say just a bit of swagger.

Don't ask me how they got here. But, try to stay as long as you can.

The results of Sunday's dismantling of the 24-0 win against the Eagles will not be fully known until next week's rematch is played. The win seemed dominating and dangerously easy in some regards. But, much like any other details of this season, any success is attached to the stated mission of winning in the playoffs, ending the 13 season drought, and thereby detaching themselves from the '07 and '08 Cowboys teams that did not achieve. A win of the division was great, shouldn't be marginalized, and it made you feel better about last year's week 17 failure, but now what?

And that is why this edition of the "Morning After" may seem a bit more of a "state of the union" address rather than a breakdown of the win. I think most of us feel like the Cowboys-Eagles game is only at halftime, with a week between halves - and the first half score doesn't matter.

I loved the domination. I loved the determination. And yes, I even enjoyed the Cowboys leaving Romo out there and throwing for more. Sure, maybe they should have taken him out when it was 17-0. But that is playing with caution and concern. This team has tried cautious and concerned, and it hasn't work. Now, it is playing with disregard for caution, and I dare say that these last 3 weeks now have me wondering what this thing could turn into.

They have self-belief. A direct reflection of the maturity of their QB. Now, let's see if he is ready to break on through to that other side of playoff accomplishment.

How about some observations from the 2nd consecutive shutout against a divisional foe:

* 1st Drive Touchdowns are all part of this Cowboys transformation. I don't quite know why things are clicking, but you cannot underestimate the effect of taking the opening kickoff, driving 80 yards, and scoring 7. In the New Orleans and Washington games, they did not get the ball first, but in all 3 games, after each team enjoyed the ball the Cowboys had 21 points, and the opponents had 0 - with just 1 solitary 1st down. They are ready to play when the game begins. It changes everything.

* 9 times this season, Tony Romo had a QB rating of over 100. Including, 5 of his last 6 games this season. We detailed at the start of December how he has his worst numbers in the biggest month. We can no longer say that. His last 6 games, his ratings were, in order: 121.2, 112.1, 111.7, 104.0, 86.7, and 106.4. That more than qualifies as saving his best for last.

* That Touchdown run from Felix Jones demonstrates why so many Cowboys fans go crazy over him. I know that I have painted myself as a bit of a pessimist on the Felix front, based solely on the idea that I have a very hard time projecting him as a #1 RB if he cannot take the beating. But, with his workload slowly increasing, I must concede that we are making progress in that regard. Anyway, the TD was that same Power 35 play they have run to the right again and again. Kosier pulls and kicks out, the 2 TEs cave in, and we have big success running right. But, a few times this season, they will run that play, except pitch it left when the entire play is running right to see if the LBs are keying off the blockers instead of watching the ball. We saw it work to perfection, as he only had 1 or 2 guys to beat (with help from Witten) and his speed did the rest. More on that play in Football 301 on Tuesday.

* Field Position is important as usual. Let's check the Eagles starting field position for their first 9 drives: P20, P14, P19, P20, P20, P12, P20, P20, P20. Tough to score points when your shortest field is 80 yards. Full marks to Mr Buehler and Mr McBriar for their fine work once again.

* No, I do not believe for a second that the Eagles were "playing vanilla" or holding things back. Look, they had a chance at the #2 seed and a bye week. If they were making decisions based on the idea that they are about to drop to the #6 seed, then they have no business in the playoffs anyway. Now, if your point is that they called off the dogs at 17-0 and showed nothing in the 2nd half, I will buy that. But that 1st half performance was not because the Eagles were trying to hide things. They just got their butt beat.

* Mike Jenkins is a pro bowler, whether he is invited or not. I apologize for having ever doubted his Football IQ. He is a very intelligent, competitive CB who the Cowboys are lucky to have. I am quite leery of Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin being held down a 3rd time, but so far, whatever Wade is doing is giving the Eagles absolute fits.

* The fact that the Cowboys passed for an all-time team record 4,483 yards in 2009 should tell you once and for all that the Cowboys do not miss Terrell Owens statistically. And the fact that they are 11-5 and seem to like each-other should tell you once and for all they do not miss Terrell Owens emotionally, either.

* Slant passes to Patrick Crayton that go for 30 yards are both wonderful and suspicious with their ease. How did that keep happening?

* With the exception of the Brent Celek show and Asante Samuel guessing right once, the key players on that Eagles roster were collectively very quiet. Do not make the mistake of expecting to see that happen again on Saturday night. I expect they will get their act together and offer a far more abrasive stand when these teams meet again. But as far as this business of it being impossible to beat a team 3 times in a season, my numbers indicate that there have been 19 such instances in NFL History, and in fact, the team going for the 3-game sweep is actually 12-7. Which would suggest a win rate of 63%, and proving that it is far from impossible. Of course, the Cowboys are 0-2 in such instances. So....

* Take this for what it is worth, which isn't much, but I do not particularly care for putting on "Division Champs" shirts and hats as the game ends, and then go across and shake hands with Andy Reid, who you have to play again next week, with your hat on. It seems like A) something that doesn't require much celebration and B) it could be interpreted by Philadelphia as bulletin board material. Again, not the biggest issue in the world, but since I have accused the Cowboys of over-celebrations and getting satisfied with themselves quite easily, it did strike a small nerve last night.

* The Cowboys had 40:23 minutes of possession. They also had 474 yards of total offense. The runners combined for 32 carries for 179 yards, and a QB who threw for 311 yards. To suggest that the offense had great success is fair. Troy Aikman suggested that the Eagles will try some different things next week. I think they better.

* Four more sacks, with 2 from Anthony Spencer. No matter how much pressure you get, it still looks like you need more. Donovan McNabb always seems like he is one throw from really hurting you, and the Eagles have to feel like they left plenty of points on the field.

* Who have you given up on more? Roy Williams or Martellus Bennett? You just can't predict this stuff in training camp, can you?

So here we go. Now we can spend the next several days breaking these two teams down further. Saturday Night cannot get here soon enough. The Cowboys have come a long, long ways. But for Wade Phillips, Tony Romo, and this entire Cowboys team, a playoff win is badly needed. This can change their legacy. To feel good about Cowboys football, it must start with ending that drought of 1996. Until they do, they will be painted with the same brush that all the Cowboys have been painted with in the "post-triplets" era. But, bouncing the Eagles would demonstrate progress and change. Wade would no longer be the winningest coach who has never won a playoff game (and he likely keeps his job) and Romo would then have as many playoff wins as a guy like Drew Brees (1!).

To say it another way, 11-5 is nice. A division title is nicer. But, to feel good about the direction the Dallas Cowboys are headed, they need at least one more victory this season.

Saturday Night.

Stat Project Update

Turnover Battles for the Week - End of Season

Winner	+/-	Loser
SF	+5	Det
GB	+4	Sea
Car	+4	NYG
ATL	+3	Buf
Arz	+3	STL
SD	+2	Ten
Cle	+2	Oak
NYJ	+2	Ind
Cin	+1	KC
NE	+1	Jac
Pit	+1	Bal
Chi	+1	Min
Hou	E	Mia
Dal	E	Was
TB	-1	NO
Phi	-2	Den
Totals for Week	12-2-2
Totals for Season	153-46, 77%

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Game Plan Friday: Philadelphia Eagles

The NFL is awesome for an infinite list of reasons. But, somewhere on that list, would have to be the amazing knack of the schedule makers to always find match-ups that are too good to be true.

So, those same Philadelphia Eagles, who are the gold standard in the NFC East for the entire decade, are coming to Arlington in Week 17 for a rematch of the Week 17 all-or-nothing game that concluded the 2008 season in Philadelphia? 44-6 has a chance to be avenged? What are the odds that the schedule makers would make this happen? Pretty good. What are the odds that the two teams would emerge at the top of the NFC East this season to play a game like this with everything on the line with 1 game to play? The luck of the NFL strikes again.

Well, the Cowboys have put themselves in position. Like we talked about back before this stretch run began, my projections from Dec 4th have proven correct :

8-3 as they enter December is very nice. 3 wins in your next 5 will win the division (I assume). 2 wins in your next 5 gets you a trip to the playoffs. 1 win or less, and you have no business in the NFL Playoffs.

This is their chance to win that 3rd game, secure their division title, and set up the first home playoff game in the new stadium. It is all right in front of them.

Let's take a quick look at home game history:

On December 11, 2005, the Cowboys beat Kansas City at Texas Stadium to get to 8-5 and put themselves in a decent spot with 3 weeks to play to make the 2005 playoffs. The next week, though, they were drilled in Washington, and finished 1 game behind the Redskins - and were swept by those same Redskins - and missed the playoffs.

Little did we know, that over 4 years later, we would be looking at that game against the Chiefs as the last game before the Cowboys forgot how to play a home game late in the season. Check out their "Post Dec 1" home games since 12/11/05:

Date	Opponent	W-L	Score	Spread
1/1/06	St Louis	L	20-10	Dal by 12.5
12/10/06	New Orleans	L	42-17	Dal by 7.5
12/25/06	Philadelphia	L	23-7	Dal by 7
12/31/06	Detroit	L	39-31	Dal by 13.5
12/16/07	Philadelphia	L	10-6	Dal by 10
1/13/08	New York	L	21-17	Dal by 7
12/14/08	New York	W	20-8	Dal by 3
12/20/08	Baltimore	L	33-24	Dal by 5.5
12/13/09	San Diego	L	20-17	Dal by 3.5

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1-8 in their last 9 home games after December 1 - favored in all 9 of them. This surely puts to rest the explanation that the reasons the Cowboys do not have a good December record is because their schedule is so darn difficult - they were expected to win every single one of these games! This presents plenty of questions, not the least of which would have to be with this trend, how can Vegas continue to make the Cowboys favorites?

Regardless, the Cowboys clearly do not have a very good grasp of closing out teams in front of their home fans in the Tony Romo era. In a December that has been filled with Romo quieting critics on a number of fronts, this is his final regular season hurdle; a home game with all of the marbles for a NFC East Division Crown laying right there in front of you.

Yet another reason to wish with all of your might that the Cowboys can close out their most hated of rivals.

ON OFFENSE:The Eagles lost back to back games back in November to the Cowboys and a trip to San Diego to take on the Chargers. This dropped their record to 5-4, and some of us wondered what the death of Jim Johnson and the exit of Brian Dawkins had done to their defense. Since then, they have played 6 games, won 6 games, and held 4 teams under 300 yards offense. This is a huge number. In fact, a 5th team, Washington, gained 303. The only team to blow this trend out of the water were the Giants on that crazy 45-38 Sunday Night game when the Giants lost, despite 512 yards of offense.

But, what is making the Eagles defense remind us of the Eagles defense over the years? Easy. Takeaways and Sacks. 15 takeaways in the last 6 games (The Cowboys have 19 takeaways in 15 games) show us they are doing what they do - go get that ball and keep it. They have also out-sacked Dallas 42-38 this season, so they still get in your QB's face, too.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys move the ball up and down the field. They are 3rd in the NFL with their average game yardage at 394 per contest. The troubling part of this trend remains, though, that they are merely 14th in the NFL in points per game (22.5). We saw more of that on Sunday in Washington. 393 yards, 17 points. Remember what Bill Parcells used to tell us - that every 100 yards should represent 7 points. So if you are getting 400 yards, you need to be close to 28 points.

Points left on the field. You don't need to explain the issues to Cowboys fans. They know all about the untimely penalties, the dropped passes, the lack of converting a 3rd and inches, and so on. That must improve here at money time.

OFFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) - Finish the Job, Tony - By now, anyone who has paid attention has come to accept that Tony Romo has arrived as a QB. He has played so soundly with the weight of the football world on his shoulders that you are almost proud of the guy for making this big step. However, we all know that the big prizes are still in front of him. He has already won a division title, but a 2nd in 3 years would enhance things. But, more importantly, this is a true showdown game. Win that, and then we get to slaying the dragons in the playoffs. But, he just has to keep doing what he is doing. He looks calm, composed, and confident. Don't change anything.

From the last Philadelphia game, here is what I wrote that next morning:
Adam Schefter had a few stats on his twitter page that I thought you would enjoy: All those Tony Romo bashers should note that on third downs last night - only third downs - Romo compiled a passer rating of 149.1 and,then this one: On third down, where Dallas won the game, Tony Romo was nine-of-11 for 140 yards, one touchdown and that quarterback rating of 149.1.

Wow. Burn the blitz on 3rd Down. Look at this perfect execution:





By the way, check out the entire Football 301 from the game at Philly Here , it is good stuff before this rematch - you know the coaching staffs from each side are pouring over this stuff.

2) - Slow down the Blitz by pounding the rock - Let's not kid ourselves. That first meeting was A) the first win was waaaay closer than your remember and B) the Cowboys offense was successful because they hit the perfect play once or twice. Our memory recalls those 2 or 3 huge plays that highlighted the win in November, but in reality, the Cowboys offense was stifled a big part of the night. Expecting the Cowboys to hit that home run to Austin down the left sideline on 3rd and long is like expecting to pay your mortgage on a lottery ticket. You got away with it last time, but you can't expect it this time. You must grind out drives the way you have proven you can in about 13 of the 15 games so far this year - by pounding the rock, and play action passing. That is the only consistent way to slow down those exotic blitz looks.

3) - Get Short Yardage squared away - I have certainly spent enough time on this already (check the Monday and Tuesday entries if you missed them), so I won't repeat myself over and over. But, I will be very interested in seeing if the Cowboys try to clean up what they have installed, or if they try out some new wrinkles that seem to be logical alternatives to what they have already tried. These could perhaps include Tashard Choice and or Felix Jones in these spots - although I will tell you that Felix seems to be a horrendous choice for 3rd and 1 unless he can get airborne, which we have certainly not seen so far. The other idea might be to trust Tony with the sneak a bit more often. Heck, they are already asking him to hold for kicks, so why not be the occasional short yardage back, too?

4) - Flozell vs Trent Cole - Speed rusher who has 12.5 sacks against a left tackle who looks like he is wearing down again. Trent Cole is a perfect attack on Flozell, and we all know it. Can he keep Cole from being a huge factor in this game? If so, the Cowboys are in great shape.





ON DEFENSE: I write this entire preview with a certain pain in the back of my head. It is all built on this premise: It is tough to beat the Eagles. It is tougher to beat them twice in one season. And, gulp, it is seemingly impossible to beat them thrice.

All of that may not have particular Cowboys defensive applications, but let me now apply it to the defense this way: The Cowboys took DeSean Jackson away in the 1st meeting for just 2 catches and 29 yards. In fact, if you include rookie stud Jeremy Maclin (boy, the Eagles seem set at WR now for a while after the last two drafts, eh?) they combined had 5 catches and 73 yards.

Only 1 team in the NFL has more 20 yard passes than the Eagles 61 (the Chargers with 64), so since they do it every week, I would say the odds are good that they will do it Sunday. But, if you take away the big play and make them mount a drive, you will be pleased with the results.

Is it textbook pessimism to suggest that the Cowboys cannot do that again? On the fast track in Arlington? Perhaps, but I think that it is realistic to assume that playmakers will eventually make plays, and then you just have to try to limit the overall damage. So, how do we get there?

DEFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) - 93 - 94 Meet at the QB - Now that I have jumped to the conclusion that Anthony Spencer has arrived based on his play since Thanksgiving, now I am going to make the dangerous jump to expect him to get to the QB around the edge and to race DeMarcus Ware to McNabb. This, of course, is a real key. How many times over the years did Ware and Ellis get there a second too late as McNabb whips the ball 50 yards down the field to Fred Ex, Hank Baskett, or Terrell Owens for a big score. Must get there quickly and change the game by putting him down and making the Eagles max-protect.

2) - Jenkins/Newman on the spot again - Since I write this almost every week it is more of a sign that the NFL is about the QB and the CBs. Every week, we ask Jenkins and Newman to shut down the huge threats down the field, and they often do a pretty salty job. Well, this week might be one of their more difficult challenges. So, can they do it? Can they keep the game in front of them? Surely, this is a major tipping point in this contest.

3) - Takeaway, Takeaway! - In 7 games this season, the Cowboys had 0 interceptions. But, in December, they have a 4 game streak going, where they picked off Manning, Rivers, Manning, and Campbell. Donovan McNabb is traditionally a very low-interception QB - he has never thrown more than 13 in a season (a shockingly low total) - so, if they can step in front of a pass or two on Sunday, it could have a remarkable impact on the game.

4) - Ratliff versus Nick Cole - Jaamal Jackson was lost for the remainder of the season last week when he blew out his knee. So, that means that RG Nick Cole must slide over, which weakens two spots on the Eagles OL. And which two spots? The two spots that traditionally seem to have to deal with Jay Ratliff. I am not suggesting that Mr Cole has a pork chop hanging around his neck, but Ratliff has been playing extremely strong football, and I can only imagine how well he should be able to dominate the line on Sunday. Trust me, this matchup is freaking out the Eagles coaching staff more than any, and this causes dominoes throughout the line. Perhaps, this allows Marcus Spears to make a play (Seriously, it could happen) or single coverage for Ware or Spencer in a given sequence.

EDIT: DC Fanatic sent me an email after he read this today:

Just read the game plan. Great stuff. I always feared this game would be for all the NFC East marbles.

This was the postgame playbook vid from the Nov game. Good stuff on the Cowboys defense slowing down the Eagles deep pasing game.

Thought it would fit nicely in with points #2 and #3 on the defensive objectives.

SUMMARY: A game I absolutely cannot wait for. A game that should be an absolute thriller. I am happy to report that the only way there seems to be a rematch possible next week is if it is in Arlington (If Minn wins) next week. In fact, if the Cowboys win, it seems pretty bloody likely that the Eagles are here next week, too.

So, we could ask the question if that is good or bad, or the Cowboys could stop waiting for fate to do them a favor and start making their own fate. That means to go for it all. And if that means beat the Eagles in back to back weeks, then do it.

Do you remember Jan 2, 2000? On that day, the Cowboys ended the 1999 season with a 26-18 win over the Giants to end the year 8-8, and then go to lose to Minnesota in the Wildcard round. I remember this because this was the week that Norm Hitzges came down from 570 KLIF to work at our station. But, the real reason I bring it up is that this was the last time the Cowboys won a regular season finale. Seriously. 10 years ago.

I said back in August that this team seemed different. They seem to operate independently from Cowboys failures past, and they can prove it on Sunday and beyond. They could easily lose this game, but if they want to separate themselves from their predecessors, it is time they win.

Cowboys 24, Eagles 20

Past Issues:

Washington Redskins Game Plan

New Orleans Saints Game Plan

San Diego Chargers Game Plan

New York Giants Game Plan

Oakland Raiders Game Plan

Washington Redskins Game Plan

Green Bay Packers Game Plan

Eagles Game Plan

Seattle Seahawks Game Plan

Atlanta Falcons Game Plan

Kansas City Game Plan

Denver Game Plan

Carolina Game Plan

Giants Game Plan

Tampa Bay Game Plan