Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Why did Wade Phillips Work In Houston?

DIscussing defenses around the league is a fun thing to do this time of year on all mediums. On Monday, it was time to sort through why the New York Giants seemed to have so many great defensive lineman and a relentless pass rush that did not depend on one player (answer: they have committed to building a core of depth in New York and they have been successful in doing so).

I have been asked by a few different readers to examine what is going on down in Houston, with Wade Phillips and the Texans installing an entirely new scheme to their personnel and finding great success in year one. If I am going to allow Rob Ryan the mulligan on account of not having an off-season program to make sure everyone was comfortable with the scheme and familiar with what was expected of them, then certainly Houston could have the same excuse for moving from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense.

In fact, much of the off-season, the narrative in Houston was based on the idea that they had players - most notably one of the very best players in the NFL, Mario Williams - that would not fit the 3-4 scheme. He was exceptional as a 4-3 defensive end, but perhaps without a home in Phillips' new scheme. He weighed nearly 300 pounds, and as much versatility as the OLB position required seemed to suggest that this move would have been crazy. But, they tried it with brave faces.

In the Texans 5th game of the season, at home against the Raiders, Williams grabbed his 5th sack of the year by getting to Jason Campbell. In doing so, he ripped his left pectoral muscle and was lost for the season. The Houston equivalent of DeMarcus Ware was going on injured reserve and now Wade Phillips and his staff would have to navigate with both a new scheme and a season-ending injury to their best pass rusher. Surely, as the media quickly typed, this would be the start of a very rocky learning experience.

And clearly, nobody in the media knows what they are talking about. How do we explain this?

Houston Texans - Defense 2010-2011

YearPPG VsSacksTakeaways
201026.7 (29th)30 (23rd)18 (30th)
2011 17.4 (4th)44 (6th)27 (12th)

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Not just improvement in every single category, but substantial improvement in every single category. Now, there are some mitigating circumstances that are beyond their control, such as no meetings against Peyton Manning this year, but still, that across-the-board improvement clearly shows a team that won 10 games and their division despite losing their Quarterback and best defender for the season.

So, how does a team improve in every category like this in one year? Especially when switching to a completely scheme and having no offseason to work through all of the bugs? And then, losing their best player within one month of the new season?

When Frank Bush was fired at the end of 2010, Pro Football talk wrote the following: there wasn’t a soul that watched the Texans defense this season that didn’t know that this move was coming. They finished 30th in yards allowed, 29th in points allowed and made quarterbacks from Tim Tebow to Bruce Gradkowski to Kerry Collins look like All-Pros at various points this season. Of course, all those numbers are just part of the reason why this news raises no eyebrows.

It seemed clear to those who did not follow the team closely that adding Wade Phillips and his scheme that helped get him fired in Dallas would end poorly in Houston, too.

And that is when we were reminded again that players play. And when you wonder why a team is as good or bad as it is, you should spend most of your time looking at what kind of players are being put on the field.

Before we go on, let's look at the same graphic from above to show how Dallas did in 2010-2011.

Dallas Cowboys - Defense 2010-2011

YearPPG VsSacksTakeaways
201027.3 (31st)35 (16th)30 (8th)
2011 21.7 (16th)42 (7th)25 (16th)

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Perhaps the most important statistic to notice here is that while points allowed and sacks were both improved, the Rob Ryan defense actually generated less takeaways than the 2010 defense that most people would agree spent the last half of October and the first part of November not even exerting much effort or energy.

Here is what I wrote on the topic of Rob Ryan's 1st season last week:

the Cowboys offered almost no personnel changes in 2011. The marginal swap of Kenyon Coleman for Igor Olshansky at DE (which is one veteran replacement level DE for another) and Abram Elam for Alan Ball which appeared to be an upgrade, albeit a incremental upgrade rather than the big dollar upgrades that were available last summer at safety.

In the draft, they offered little to know defensive support. The one potential impact addition would have been in the 2nd round, but the Cowboys took LB Bruce Carter who was returning from a major knee surgery, and he wouldn't be ready until mid November. Essentially, there was no support at all from the 2011 draft, despite the issues the Cowboys faced in 2010 defensively.

So, everyone was invited back. No free agency strikes. No draft support. No dollar investment in the team aside from discount purchases of players of the Cleveland defense who were not heavily sought after in the league.

But, in the end, I think Rob Ryan did as much with the same defense that he was left with as anyone could reasonably be expected to do with no offseason.

What we need to recognize is that he was not given enough to work with. He still had mediocre secondary personnel and one legit pass rusher. Until that changes, bring in any coordinator you want. They may not be as brash as Rob Ryan, but I don't anticipate that they will be able to make this defense elite, either, until some elite players are brought in.


Put another way, of the top 17 Cowboys defensive players (in terms of snaps taken) that were a part of the 2010 disaster, 15 of them were back on the defense this season. Igor Olshansky (573 snaps) and Stephen Bowen (554) were the only non-returners at defensive end.

The Cowboys tried the ultimate experiment of changing a coach, but keeping the personnel almost completely static. Everyone was back, and aside from the two Cleveland Browns who were brought over (Elam and Coleman) the Cowboys were believing that Rob Ryan could simply deploy them differently.

Meanwhile in Houston, their defense in 2010 was thought of as an even bigger disaster. They were at the bottom of the league in all sorts of defensive metrics and decided if they were ever going to win their division and compete in the playoffs, they would have to solve their defensive issues.

And as one takes a look at how they became such an impressive defense in one year, there are a few in the Dallas media that point to Wade Phillips as the difference. Phillips is certainly a capable coordinator, so this is not to dispute that his scheme works in the NFL. But, he surely used all of his tricks in Dallas, and they weren't working. So, why did those same tricks work in Houston? Or did they?

A closer look reveals that in 2011, the Houston Texans overhauled their defense in one short off-season. They are in the final 8 of the NFL Playoffs and have that coveted playoff win in their back pocket as they head to Baltimore to go for another.

Of the spine of that defense, there were 8 players that played more than 700 snaps this season. Quin Glover, Brian Cushing, and Antonio Smith were the 3 holdovers from the Frank Bush crew that finished in the bottom of the league. However, the other 5 players were all brought different pieces that provided Wade Phillips with proper personnel to change the defense to a 3-4.

One of those 5 players was the return of Connor Barwin who suffered a major injury in Week 1 of 2010. His return from his nasty ankle dislocation gave them a perfect outside LB edge rusher to snap right into Wade's plans. His 12 sacks and 18 QB hits combined for 30 different occasions where he hit the quarterback - more than any Dallas defender - including Ware (28 - 20 sacks, 8 QB hits).

The other 4 major defensive contributors all arrived in the spring and summer of 2011. And all 4 required major investments on the part of the Texans. They used free agency and the draft, and they decided to get Phillips players that could make a significant difference right away.

First in the draft, Houston poured all of its resources into the defense. In the 1st Round, they used pick #11 on Wisconsin DE JJ Watt. This, many agree, was the pick the Cowboys would snag if Tyron Smith was not left on the board. The Cowboys made the pick that they most needed, but Watt gave Houston a DE in the 3-4 that causes havoc every Sunday. According to www.profootballfocus.com he graded as Houston's best defender and was able to get to the QB for 7 sacks and 11 QB hits, while standing up in the run game.

Then, in the 2nd round, took OLB Brooks Reed from Arizona at pick #42 (2 picks after the Cowboys had grabbed LB Bruce Carter at #40). Reed was thought to be depth and insurance because the Texans were planning on Barwin and Mario Williams at OLB, but when Mario was lost for the year, Reed took over. He then played 799 snaps and totaled 6 sacks as a rookie. Later in the 2nd round, the Texans traded up with New England to take a cornerback from Miami, Brandon Harris. Harris has played quite sparingly in 2011, but at the age of 21, he has plenty of time to contribute.

In the summer, free agency was the next factor and the Texans used it to make a major strike and to fix their secondary. They signed 27-year old corner, Johnathan Joseph from the Bengals. This was a major expenditure of $48.75 million dollars over 5 years, including $23.5 million guaranteed.

That very same day, they targeted a free safety from Chicago, Danieal Manning. They inked his services at the price of $20 million over $4 seasons, including $9 million guaranteed. He provided kick returning and safety play, and despite missing a month with a fractured fibula, he still played 743 snaps.

So, where do we credit this major improvement and defensive success in Houston? Phillips? The Draft with Watt and Reed? Free agency with Joseph and Manning?

I imagine in Houston it doesn't matter where the credit goes. They covered all of the bases and now have a defense that swarmed Andy Dalton and the Bengals and never let them up for air.

Players play and coaches coach. But, from my seat, I suggest that Houston's off season strategy put them in a spot where they could suffer a major injury and still have their best defensive season ever.

Monday, January 09, 2012

A Difference in Philosophy

It is extremely difficult to watch the NFL Playoffs a week after the Dallas Cowboys crash-and-burn routine ended without thinking about them at every turn. Here is a former Cowboys player, and here is a former Cowboys coach. Over here is another QB who has pulled even with Tony Romo for career playoff wins (TJ Yates) and then the next day, here is even another QB who has pulled even with Romo for career playoff wins (Tim Tebow).

But, no game makes you think about the Cowboys all afternoon quite like watching the New York Giants.

Not only because of the way they dismissed the Cowboys from the 2011 season, but because they are rivals. There is venom. There is jealousy. And there is a distinct difference in philosophy about how to build a playoff-ready power.

We can certainly go on and on about how Ernie Accorsi and Jerry Reese see football differently than Jerry Jones in many regards, but let's stick to what jumps off the screen when you flip on the Giants this time of year.

They are distinctly led and designed around their defensive front. The defensive front is why they won the Super Bowl in the 2007 season - despite rather mediocre play in other departments of their team. And it is that same defensive front that gives them a puncher's chance to defeat the 15-1 Green Bay Packers this coming Sunday at Lambeau Field, just like they did in 2007.

You watch the defensive line of the Giants for any period of time and you see it is not necessarily a front that is built around one player simply being a superstar, but rather a strength-in-numbers philosophy that can withstand an injury or a contract dispute or most importantly, the aging process.

A franchise cannot afford to be crippled when its alpha male, Michael Strahan takes his 141.5 career sacks and moves on to the television studios that retirement bring. His final game was Super Bowl 42, and his legacy was secured when the Giants hassled and hammered Tom Brady all day long in that momentous Super Bowl upset.

And they were not crippled. They were prepared. Because the Giants understand that the line of scrimmage is the easiest way to have success in late seasons scenarios and they also understand that the only way to guarantee that sort of success is to make it a priority every off-season when the franchise must decide where to allocate resources. No franchise has more sacks since 2003 than the New York Giants (379) and it is no accident. It is deliberate and careful persistence in talent collection.

Let's compare the two organizations asset distribution to the defensive front to understand why one team seems to succeed because of its defensive line and the other seems to succeed often in spite of it. Given the difference in scheme, we will try to compare apples to apples and allow OLBs from Dallas if they are primary edge rushers and leave Middle LBs out of the discussion for both sides. For the sake of discussion, we will label any pick in the Top 4 rounds as "premium picks".

First, the Dallas Cowboys use of premium picks since 2003 on the defensive front:

YearPickName
20051/11DeMarcus Ware
20051/20Marcus Spears
20054/132Chris Canty
20063/92Jason Hatcher
20071/26Anthony Spencer

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Now, the same chart for the New York Giants

YearPickName
20031/25William Joseph
20032/56Osi Umenyiora
20053/74Justin Tuck
20061/32Mathias Kiwanuka
20064/124Barry Cofield
20073/81Jay Alford
20101/15Jason Pierre Paul
20102/46Linval Joseph
20112/52Marvin Austin

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That is a staggering difference in allocation of assets into a defensive front. Ware is the great equalizer in many regards, as the Cowboys have still accumulated an amazing number of sacks given this discrepancy, and finding Jay Ratliff late has been a great help. But, the Giants wanted to build this generation around their defensive front - like the organization did in the 1980's and 1990's with Bill Parcells and GM George Young. In fact, now, given the use of so many draft picks, it makes you ponder their free agency objective as well.

New York Giants Free Agent DL Signings:

YearContractName
20096/$42mChris Canty
20094/$16mRocky Bernard

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That's right. After spending so many high, premium picks on DL, they also decided before 2009 that they wanted to find even more strength in numbers with the free agent targets of 2 more players - one a reasonably high pick from Dallas.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys countered with this:

YearContractName
20055/$21.5mJason Ferguson
20094/$18mIgor Olshansky
20112/$3.5mKenyon Coleman

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Here again we see that the Cowboys use of free agency goes back to 2005 when Ferguson, Ware, Canty, and Spears were all added in the same spring when Parcells was ready to fully commit to the 3-4. Since then, the draft and free agency have almost completely ignored the front or looked for red-tag discounts.

Jerry Jones and Wade Phillips bragged about finding Igor Olshansky as a perfect replacement for Chris Canty. Nobody would argue that Canty's New York offer would have been mocked had Dallas decided to match it. And it is likely nobody would argue that Canty is entirely overpaid. Canty was not being asked to dominate a game, he was strengthening an already-strong unit. However, Olshansky made almost no impact whatsoever during his stay in Dallas, and frankly, Coleman's year was largely difficult to detect as well.

Observers often suggest that the DE spot in the 3-4 is not designed for play-making, but in Houston (JJ Watt and Antonio Smith), San Francisco (Justin Smith), Green Bay (Cullen Jenkins for several seasons) and New England (Richard Seymour for years) would beg to differ. Houston is especially notable given that Wade Phillips is asking his DEs to do what he asked Olshansky and Spears to do here - but with largely different results.

In the last month, we have seen the Giants DL over-run the Cowboys OL twice (6 sacks last week in a winner-take-all scenario), the Jets, and they stuffed the Falcons in a playoff game for 4 full Quarters. Atlanta only pieced together 2 drives all day long of any substance, and both of them ended when Matt Ryan couldn't move the Defensive front on a 4th and 1. Those failures certainly reminded anyone in these parts of Tony Romo trying to accomplish the same thing one week earlier in the same end of Met Life Stadium.

These are game-changing, season-saving plays. And they don't happen by accident. Of the 8 players the Giants rotated in on their defensive front, 7 of them were major investments. Tuck, Joseph, Pierre-Paul, Kiwanuka, and Umenyiora were high picks and large contracts. Canty and Bernard were well compensated free agent acquisitions. Only Dave Tollefson, who plays the least of the 8, was a bargain find. The Giants made sure that no matter what sort of injuries or contract issues presented themselves, they would never be left without enough talent to compete. And if all 8 are present and accounted for, they could assemble a rotation of such depth and quality that in a 4 Quarter battle, they would always have a substantial impact. Marvin Austin, their 2011 2nd round pick from North Carolina, is another 310 lb interior beast who tore a pectoral muscle in training camp and will enjoy a redshirt year learning from the best.

Meanwhile, in Dallas, they have to feel that their defensive front has betrayed them too often. If not Ware, then almost nobody troubles a QB without the aid of a blitz. There is very little along the lines of a quality rotation, and there has been no strong challenges from young players who are looking to win jobs. The reason for that is rather explainable, as there has been no priority investment in the DL in years. The last major thrust was the pick of Spencer in 2007, a move that they are now pondering moving on from as he hits free agency with little behind them to step in.

They have felt there have simply been too many other places to address on the roster on draft day. But, with each passing year, they put more and more on the shoulders of those few difference makers that they have and wear and tear is adding up. Word is that they would have been delighted to grab JJ Watt at #9 this past spring, but with Tyron Smith available, and the offensive line in shambles, they did what needed to be done.

The Giants now head to Green Bay, and the Cowboys locker-room has been vacated a week ago. The defensive front is not the only reason the two teams are where they are, but it is the most evident that comes to mind. The Giants likely have too many holes elsewhere on their roster to duplicate their Super Bowl run of 2007, but they can not be counted out.

Thousands of miles away, the Cowboys fan-base looks on and wonders how many players it would take to put on a Doomsday-caliber show like they have watched in New York over the last few weeks.

More than a few.

Friday, January 06, 2012

Viewer Mail

With Cowboys season now in our rear-view mirror, I will use Friday and Monday as some sort of NFL grab bags, with some thoughts on the playoff games and emails from you, our valued readers. Today, I thought we could start with one final piece of data from the Week 16 game, at the New York Giants.

This is our "throw chart" for Tony Romo, which will help as a companion piece to the Decoding Garrett analysis that we put out on Wednesday. As it plainly appears, despite Romo throwing tons of passes, they were all right at the line of scrimmage with very few exceptions. This speaks to the quick outs that are necessitated due to the Giants front dominating the Cowboys OL. With no time, you cannot attempt passes down the field. The defense knows this reality and patterns their coverage on top of it. They push their coverage forward, knowing that Romo's options are limited by his protection. They make the throwing windows smaller, utilize press coverage, and challenge the Cowboys to beat them over the top. This, of course, is impossible, unless they can give Romo time.



Two completions at 10 yards or further down the field. Dink and dunk offense until the line gets properly fixed.

Now, to the email:

From: Shawn Curran
Subject: Rob Ryan's Defense Did Not Increase QB Sacks
Date: January 4, 2012 9:45:52 AM CST
To: Bob Sturm

Hi Bob,

Is Rob Ryan's scheme much to do about nothing? A big smoke and mirrors routine that wows fans and bores NFL offenses? I submit the following data:

Player, 2010 sacks, 2011 sacks

Terrence Newman, 0,0
Mike Jenkins, 0,0
Orlando Scandrick, 2.5,2
Sean Lee, 0,0
Keith Brooking, 0,0
Bradie James, 0,0
Alan Ball, 0.5,0
Abram Elam, N/A,0
Gerald Sensabaugh, 2.0,0
Jay Ratliff, 3.5,2
Anthony Spencer, 5,6

The result in sacks of all this talk about how Rob Ryan would bring guys from all over the field is no different than Wade's defense. Everyone got about the same number of sacks as they did last year while Sensabaugh and Ratliff actually seemed to do worse.

The only player whose sack numbers changed at all was DeMarcus Ware who had a truly great year. But we already know he's capable of 20-sack seasons because he did it under Wade Phillips.

So at the end of the day is this scheme a bunch of hype? I guess you can blame it on the players but it's tough to imagine all the players are so useless that not a single one benefited from a supposedly pressure-packed scheme.

What is your reaction to this data?

- Shawn


Thanks, Shawn, for the well-thought out feedback. I guess this is the point of the blog where I dust of my defenses of Rob Ryan. I have a great admiration for the Ryan's family approach to defense. I know he is his own man, but I think they all believe in similar tactics and have similar personalities, so there is some spill over from Ryan to Ryan. And what is quite true about the Ryan family is that they are so brash that when there is a failure or perceived failure amongst their work, the public loves to examine it and ask the "what is so great about Rob, Rex, and Buddy Ryan after all?"

I believe coaching matters. I believe it matters a lot. And I believe Rob Ryan is a heck of a coach.

But, I also believe that no man has ever won the Kentucky Derby on a donkey. With that in mind, it is tough to measure the impact of a defensive coordinator against another without weighing the personnel. Bill Walsh is a genius. Is he a genius if he is working with Joe Montana and Jerry Rice? Did he make them legends? Or did they make him a legend? If Bill Walsh takes the Cardinals or Packers job when he was hired by the 49ers in 1979, is he just another coach in the encyclopedia?

This is where the question becomes murky.

The Cowboys were a disgrace in 2010. More than a few places have accused the team of the ultimate sin of quitting. They won 6 games all year and gave up the most points in the history of the franchise, 436. They allowed a team as sterile as Jacksonville to come into Arlington and run up the score on the Cowboys. They were an abomination.

Then, the Cowboys offered almost no personnel changes. The marginal swap of Kenyon Coleman for Igor Olshansky at DE (which is one veteran replacement level DE for another) and Abram Elam for Alan Ball which appeared to be an upgrade, albeit a incremental upgrade rather than the big dollar upgrades that were available last summer at safety.

In the draft, they offered little to know defensive support. The one potential impact addition would have been in the 2nd round, but the Cowboys took LB Bruce Carter who was returning from a major knee surgery, and he wouldn't be ready until mid November. Essentially, there was no support at all from the 2011 draft, despite the issues the Cowboys faced in 2010 defensively.

So, everyone was invited back. No free agency strikes. No draft support. No dollar investment in the team aside from discount purchases of players of the Cleveland defense who were not heavily sought after in the league.

Then, no off-season program for Ryan to install his most complex of defensive schemes. If you believe Wade Phillips was vanilla and Ryan was the polar opposite, then surely installation time is imperative to the personnel so that they may get familiar and that it might enter some sort of "second nature" feel for each player.

Instead, it was a rushed camp to figure out where everyone was to go and what to do.

Bottom line: Did the Cowboys turn into the 1985 Bears with just a few of Rob Ryan's magic potions? Of course not. But, did we see substantial improvement in certain metrics - with the most important being points allowed? Yes, we did.

In 2010, the team allowed 436 points, or roughly 27.3 points per game. This season, despite no additions of note, the team dropped nearly a touchdown per game to 347 points, 21.7 points per game.

So, yes, I expected more. And yes, we should consider a weak schedule. But, in the end, I think Rob Ryan did as much with the same defense that he was left with as anyone could reasonably be expected to do with no offseason.

What we need to recognize is that he was not given enough to work with. He still had mediocre secondary personnel and one legit pass rusher. Until that changes, bring in any coordinator you want. They may not be as brash as Rob Ryan, but I don't anticipate that they will be able to make this defense elite, either, until some elite players are brought in.

=====

From: "Jeff The Pool Guy"
Date: January 3, 2012 8:16:28 AM CST
To: "Bob Sturm"
Subject: Re: Cowboys blog -

This is good stuff, I am so disheartened with the state of the team. My once great franchise is mired in mediocrity and there is no end in sight. There are so many holes to fill and we have the people that created those holes trying to fill them. I am a huge fan of Romo and believe given the talent around him he would win a championship. Unfortunately I don’t think we will ever know if that is true. Here is my list of people that have to be upgraded.

Spears
Coleman
P. Costa
Holland/Dockery/Nagy
Kosier
B. James
K. Brooking
T. Newman
O. Scandrick
Spencer (This guy should be an animal) Tony Tolbert was a stud with Haley on the other side. Anybody else will make happy here.

So...
All but 2 of the front seven need upgraded and we need another NT to rest an aging Ratliff.
Two of the CB need upgraded and they re-signed the wrong safety.
3/5 of the OL are terrible and the remaining 2 need to swap sides.

There is no way they can accomplish this. Even if they had a good front office. They have too much dead money and not enough draft picks. They need a whole new interior line. that is ridiculous. We are so far from being competitive with the big boys.

The fact that we have Romo covers up so much garbage. He is the reason we pound inferior teams. But when we play a team that can overwhelm our O-line he doesn’t have time to operate. Even against teams that aren't good he has to be a Jedi and avoid the rush to make plays. If we had an average to below average QB we would be 5-11 at best. Parcells was right within a couple of years of his departure it was like he was never there.

I have all but given up. I am still a fan because I love the Team. But I could not be more disgusted with the way things are run around there. I know it won't change, but man I wish it would. I have a sneaky suspicion that we won't have any real success for the next 3-4 years of which will mark the end of Romo's prime. Then we will be bottom feeders again.

Disheartened in Dallas,
Jeff


Wow. That speaks volumes. I have almost no issues with anything he said, and I fear his projections are close to the truth. This proud franchise raised the bar for its fan base for years and years (entire lifetimes for many) and now are showing that same fan base what mediocrity tastes like.

It is tough for the diehards to keep brave faces. And with no change in sight for the way they make their mistakes, one has to wonder when the worm will turn. I wish I had some encouragement, but I really don't right now.

=====

Playoffs:

Here are some quick picks for the games this weekend:

Bengals at Texans: This will be a fun game to watch in the sense that many people will be getting a close look at these two teams for the first time. My initial thoughts are that the Bengals are not ready to win a game like this and that they have an inflated win total based on schedule and luck. Andy Dalton is a great story and his upside seems promising, but to win a road playoff game does not seem likely to me. I realize Houston has their own issues at QB, but I expect that Houston is going to be electric for this 1st playoff appearance ever and I know that defense flies to the ball. I have Houston 24, Bengals 17.

Lions at Saints: Here is another case of a team with an extended absence getting a chance to go to the playoffs. The sky is the limit for the Lions' future, but I still think Matt Stafford has plenty of room to improve (stats people, grab your torches and storm my castle!). His accuracy on the crucial throws still betrays the young lad, and against the Saints in that stadium, missing any throws will get you beat. The Lions have the firepower, but this is a horrible draw for them. If only they were going to New York, I would pick them. In the Superdome, no way. Saints 42, Lions 31.

Falcons at Giants: Great matchup, and this is the game I am really struggling to pick. I believe that you can make a real case for either team here, but I am affected by looking at that Giants front and their pass rush quite a bit in the last few weeks, and they do look like a fine dark-horse to make a run. I think the Falcons are capable, but it will take a big day from their inconsistent passing attack, so I will follow the home field advantage again to this outcome, Giants 27, Falcons 24.

Steelers at Broncos: And now, the game that looks like a real mismatch. Pittsburgh is the 2nd best team in the AFC right now, and the only team besides New England that I can see in the Super Bowl. But, they are damaged by losing Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Clark. I love the Tebow story and am absolutely enjoying following the Broncos story. But, since Von Miller has been injured, the pass rush is not the same. And without pass rush, Roethlisberger can enjoy a big day. I would imagine getting to 20 points will be plenty, so I have to roll with Pittsburgh 26, Denver 14.

Enjoy one of the best weekends of the year. The Playoffs are finally upon us.

Thursday, January 05, 2012

Gaglardi Is Now On the Case

It is always dangerous to look at the standings too early in the season in any league, but especially in the NHL. We gathered around the laptop in November and saw that up was now down. Down was now up. And resources, payroll, and talent levels didn't seem to matter too much to where the team was in the playoff race. Of course, when 15 games are played, things haven't sorted themselves out very far, but the Stars were #1 in the West on November 8th and feeling like a million bucks (or like a $63 million payroll).

There was a sense of great optimism, but the fact that Edmonton and Dallas were tops in the West and Vancouver was near the bottom gave everyone some level of pause about the long grind ahead.

The pace has slowed in Dallas, but everyone had to know that the 22 points in 14 games pace (1.57 per game) was impossible to maintain for any team in hockey. Since then, the Stars have rolled up just 21 points and have played 24 games (.87 per game). That pace will not be enough to find post-season hockey for any squad in the sport.

So where are the Stars as they near the half-way point of 2011-12?

That is the question that I asked their new owner, Tom Gaglardi after his team lost a close game with Detroit on Tuesday.

"I'm not sure yet. It is too soon for me to have an opinion. We have as good a 3rd line as there is in the league. We like our 4th line and they get us some scoring and they spend a lot of time in the other team's zone. Our top 6 just have to be more consistent. It has been frustrating because since our 11-3 start we haven't been able to prolong any win streaks and put some wins together like the good teams do. It's still early, but we got to find some consistency and put some wins together."

And in a moment of clarity, I thought the new owner demonstrated a few things. First, despite being named, "Tom", he has so much more hockey knowledge than any other Stars' owners who have been named "Tom" that it is scary. Whether that is good news or bad news ultimately will depend on what he does with that knowledge.

Second, he hit on maybe the biggest issue with the Stars moving forward. Their "Top 6" is the department on the team that is largely in charge of scoring and power play performance. I might also add to that the top pair of defenseman, but let's just keep talking about the "top 6".

Gaglardi went on to talk about how recently the line with Jamie Benn (10 goals), Michael Ryder (17), and Loui Eriksson (14) has been strong, but the Mike Ribeiro (6) line, with Brenden Morrow (7) and Steve Ott (6) need to show more scoring on a night to night basis. 41 goals for Benn's line and 19 goals for Ribeiro's suggest that you might have the dreaded 1-line team. This, of course, is problematic for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that you are too easy to defend for the opponent.

Nobody would argue that, but perhaps this is where the puck is passed back to the Stars' new owner.

One would make the case that NHL teams build themselves based on the amount of resources that can be used. Since goal scorers are about the most expensive commodity in hockey, teams with very low payrolls have very few gifted scorers. This also applies to franchise-caliber defensemen, something else the Stars lack at this point.

But, something that can be afforded in great supply for any roster is salt-of-the-earth warriors who are perfect checking line guys and will fight in the corner for every puck and give you every thing they have. The Stars have lots and lots of those guys. That is why they are pesky. That is why they can compete with anyone in the league. They have resolve, heart, and battle in great supply. In fact, you could suggest they have at least 6 players who would be perfect for the 3rd line. Vernon Fiddler, Radek Dvorak, Eric Nystrom, Adam Burish, Ott, and Morrow, would all be wonderful 3rd line guys at this point of their careers.

But, how many great "Top 6" scoring wingers do they have? Somewhere between 2 and 3. But, they need at least 4. You could argue that Ott or Morrow are both quite capable of filling one spot, but their offensive zone games are so similar (go to the net, take a beating, battle to the death, score a goal from tight) that it is problematic to put them on the same line around one of the more creative centers to ever pass through town. So, they tried splitting them up earlier in the season and putting RW Ryder with Ribeiro and Morrow, with RW Ott with Jamie and Loui, but that didn't click and it left nobody to take faceoffs when Ribeiro was on the ice (he is a noted poor faceoff man and the Stars have given all of his faceoffs to Ott recently).

So, there is the pickle they are in. The problem is made worse when you note that both specialty teams (Power Play and Penalty Kill) are in the bottom third of the league.

And that ties it all together. What is their best trait? Scrappiness. Peskiness. And overall grit. But, as we saw last season, that can take you a certain distance, but it doesn't leave a whole lot of room for mistakes. Last year, when injuries started taking their toll, the Stars lost some ground in which they were never able to fully recover. They seem to be stretched so thin because of the Hicks regime reducing resources to a drip.

And that is why Gaglardi's job is clear and vital. Turn that faucet of cash on. Nobody means to spend freely and without strategy, but it will require some bold moves when they are available. The Ducks are in the news for suggesting that everything is priced to move with their shattered season. Normally, you would laugh at the idea of the Ducks and Stars doing anything, but with new realignment, the Ducks are no longer rivals. If they are looking to move top-end pricey talent, I wouldn't waste a moment in picking up the phone. Ryan Getzlaf is available? He may be a center, but he is 26 and a monster. I think I would make room. Heck, I might be able to talk myself into 26-year old Corey Perry to play the wing with Ribeiro.

The beauty with either of those players would be that they address your long term needs of talent that is still young (as would Bobby Ryan). The Stars are actually a bit old and as many players as they have under 25 who contribute, they also have a large number of regulars that are well past their 30th birthday. These are all things for Joe Nieuwendyk to consider as they move forward.

In talking with several NHL personnel people in the last few days, it is clear that the Stars have very promising futures with Benn and Eriksson. Every team would love to add them, but a quick dose of reality also returns that nobody who I spoke with placed Benn or Eriksson in the Top 7 forwards in the Pacific Division. They unanimously returned the names of Kopitar, Thornton, Perry, Getzlaf, Pavelski, Richards, and Ryan before listing Dallas' top forwards. Doesn't mean that someday soon Benn won't pass them, but for now, the Stars have Top 10 forwards in their own division, but nobody would say Top 5. With simple math (6 divisions) that would place the Stars best amongst the ranks 31-60 in the NHL at the forward position if all divisions have similar talent (they likely do not).

Patience is needed right now. The Stars will continue to battle on the ice as strategies are hatched. There is a chance that no bold strikes will happen until summer. Then, it will be Gaglardi and Nieuwendyk's job to sell UFA's on the idea of coming here which is never easy when competing with "Original 6" teams.

But, know this: After spending 30 minutes talking hockey with the man, which you can hear by clicking here, it seems clear to know that not only is the owner thinking about these very topics, he is also obsessed with figuring it out. He will make changes, but he will also think them through carefully and deliberately.

But most importantly, they will be on his mind.

And previous owners cannot compete with that attribute. Even though there is plenty of work to do, there is reason for great optimism yet again for this organization.

Wednesday, January 04, 2012

Charity Challenge 6 - 2004

Fun with scanning pictures of another titanic battle with Team Musers and Gen X Davey Lane.











Tell Uncle Rico I said, "Hi".

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Decoding Garrett - Week 16 - Data - At New York

The Cowboys seasons have ended in somewhat similar fashion over the last several years. Admittedly, the records have been different and the details do vary some, but it seems that invariably, when the season does end, it ends in a way that is reminiscent
of Cowboys' failures past.

Since Tony Romo's bobbled hold in Seattle, each subsequent season ender was decided with the Cowboys offense looking at its lineman as a major culprit and what should be a major objective moving forward.

In 2007, it was an offensive line that did not hold up in the 4th Quarter against a strong Giants' front. Most damaging indictment was on the game's final play that the go-to receiver, Jason Witten, was forced to stay in and help block so Tony Romo was not sacked to end the season. In the aftermath, concerns of the offensive line were everywhere.

In 2008, losing 3 out of 4 in the month of December ended a tumultuous year. Down the stretch, with losses in Pittsburgh, at home against Baltimore, and at Philadelphia, the line crumbled again. Before December, the Cowboys allowed the 8th fewest sacks in the league. But after December 1, no team in the NFL allowed more sacks than the Cowboys did (13). The concerns with the offensive line where there for all to see.

IN 2009, the Cowboys had a wonderful year along the offensive line. Without question, it was the finest year of pass protection and run production the organization has had in the last decade. All went according to plan until they advanced to play the strong front of the Minnesota Vikings at the Metrodome in the divisional round of the playoffs. 6 sacks later, the Cowboys were bruised, beaten, and eliminated. Anyone who watched that game would be hard pressed to suggest the Cowboys line did their job very well.

In 2010, the breakdown happened earlier in the season, with Tennessee sacking Romo 6 times as once again Marc Colombo and Leonard Davis looked old and slow. 2 weeks later, Romo was lost for the season as the Giants were able to slam him to the turn and break his collarbone. Any doubt about the OL's pass protection ability was difficult to confirm with sack totals, because they only allowed 31 the whole season. But, observers started to see that Jason Garrett was continuing to alter these totals with play calling. Short passes, many behind the line of scrimmage, were his best remedy for pass protection breakdowns. If Romo (or his healthy QB) could get rid of the ball before his OL was beaten, they could keep any stretchers from being needed.

And in 2011, with the season on the line, the season collapsed again in December. The team was 7-4 entering the final month of the year and had allowed only 20 sacks in 11 games. At times, it was preventive play calling and at other times, the offensive line started to show that it was getting better with many new, young components. Tyron Smith, Phil Costa, and Bill Nagy were now starters and team put an incredible amount of faith and belief in their ability to protect and form holes for the running game.

But, then came December, where only the Chicago Bears allowed more sacks to their QBs than the Cowboys allowed. 19 sacks in 5 games (and countless others escaped by Romo), and a running game that plummeted to 25th in the league due to an injury to DeMarco Murray and the line unable to get a push against the tough lines in New York and Arizona.

It is the same old situation at the moment of truth. An offensive line that does not protect and serve, but rather an offensive line that prevents the offense from having enough time and space to get the ball to its difference makers. One shudders to think what Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith would have been able to accomplish if Tony Romo's offensive lines were to replace the fabulous lines of the 1990s.

Nowhere is this more apparent than against familiar divisional foes, especially on the road. In 8 home games, the Cowboys allowed 11 sacks. In 8 road games, they suffered 28. And now that we established the problems in December and the problems on the road, we understand how tough it is going to be when they have to play a December game on the road against the New York Giants.

A few weeks ago, we discussed at great length the "game plan for road games" that Jason Garrett has used. I encourage you to review that piece that originally ran after the game at Arizona. Since 2008, when the Cowboys face a road test against an opponent with a notable defensive front, Garrett enters the game with very little faith in his line (for obvious reasons). He then attempts to protect them by calling almost no run plays (save for shotgun runs on 3rd and long to get his punter some space) and no pass plays that require time and protection. It is a series of quick outs, screens, dump downs, and a passing offense that cannot stretch the field.

This actually can work, but only if the team stays on schedule. If it ever gets into a 2nd or 3rd and long (which will happen often), then he has no choice but to ask his protection to hold up so that the Cowboys can move the chains. This risks his QB to taking another beating and invites blitzes and stunts to expose the line yet again. The Cowboys switch to almost exclusively shotgun, and the defense can then replace its run stoppers with more cover guys and Romo's job gets even more difficult.

Garrett tried 5 traditional runs on Sunday from under center in the entire game. Five. And then, because the score had tilted against him at 14-0, the only other run play from under center tried for the remaining 3 quarters was the horrible QB sneak in the 4th Quarter that never had a chance. Basically, the Cowboys OL never fired forward the entire night. They backed up in retreat as they attempted to keep the crumbling pocket alive for another second.

So, given the cycle of repetition we are seeing year after year, where the offense can go as far as the line can take them, we can debate whether Garrett should show more faith in his offensive line or if he is just doing what should be done with his play calling. But, what can't be argued (I wouldn't think) is that the Cowboys must continue to make the OL its top priority. They are wasting the prime of a difficult to find QB who can play at a very high level by not providing him the protection in key moments like many of the successful QBs in this league enjoy.

Put another way, it appears you can have all of the skill players in the world assembled, but unless you can figure out a way to protect your QB, it won't matter.

Data from Week 16 at New York


Run-Pass15-44
1st Down Run-Pass7-21
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go7.88
2nd Down Run-Pass5-13
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go7.58
3rd Down Run-Pass2-10
3rd Down Conversions4-12, 33%

HTML Tables



From a play calling standpoint, despite wanting balance in the offense of run/pass, it is clear that in similar road settings (at New England, at Philadelphia, at Arizona, at New York) the Cowboys abandon the run in the 1st Quarter. Regardless of score, there is no reason a team cannot stick to their game plan better unless they realize they have no chance to run the ball in running situations.

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 12-At Arizona - 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 13-New York - 12 Drives - 7 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-At Tampa - 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 15-Philadelphia - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 16-At New York - 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Totals by Personnel Groups:
PackagePlays RunYardsRunPass
11101-00-0
124131-13-12
13000-00-0
21321--12-3
22393-90-0
23000-00-0
S01000-00-0
S02240-02-4
S11452599-4436-215
S12180-01-8
Knee000-00-0
Totals5929515-5344-242

Table Tutorial




Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:
PackagePlaysYardsRunPassFD/TD
11101-00-00/0
12000-00-00/0
13000-00-00/0
21000-00-00/0
22000-00-00/0
23000-00-00/0
S01000-00-00/0
S021-80-01--80/0
S1111382-149-244/0
S12000-00-00/0
Totals13303-1410-164/0

Table Tutorial



Just look at how bad the offense was on 3rd Down when the pass protection is most vital. 10 passes for a total of 16 yards is horrendous. If you want one explanation, it is because Tony Romo knows he will not have a chance to go through his reads without a large defensive end trying to put him in the hospital. His eye level is down making sure he doesn't get blindsided instead of seeing his receivers down field. And it is tough to blame him too much.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58
Wk 12-Arz 29/67
Wk 13-NYG 28/58
Wk 14-TB 26/67
Wk 15-Phi 39/66
Wk 16-NYG 48/59

Total - 445/1012 43.9%


As you can see, the Cowboys were as one dimensional as it gets. Lots of shotgun is never good for a team. It usually says it is the final chance and they are well behind in the game. Last time the Cowboys ran so much shotgun? When Jacksonville crushed them in 2010.

==================

Next week, we will publish the season totals and look at things from a larger perspective for the 2011 campaign.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

Monday, January 02, 2012

The Morning After: Giants 31, Cowboys 14 (8-8)

Anytime there is a full and complete collapse - such as going 1-4 to finish the season - it would be much too simplistic to single one portion of an organization for ridicule and public identification.

Rather, for the 2011 Dallas Cowboys, we must look in all sorts of directions. And we must wonder, after a very disappointing 8-8 campaign, how long things will continue in this general direction before the Cowboys can break out of this franchise-worst drought of playoff futility and return to its formerly usual spot with the heavyweights of the NFL.

Once upon a time, the Cowboys organization set the pace for excellence in the league. Playoff regulars and a team that amassed division titles, playoff wins, and Super Bowls for much of the first 35 years of its existence has now hit such a drastic wall that nearly every fan of the team can recite the horrible facts:

In 15 years, the Cowboys have 1 wildcard playoff victory. One. That's one more than the Muncie Flyers and the Canton Bulldogs, but given that those teams folded shortly after World War 1, that would clearly not be a very large consolation.

The Cowboys have hit the wall of resistance nearly every season at a similar time. Usually right around the holidays is where the Cowboys take a promising start and wither under the bright lights of the holiday season, as it did in 2011. Dallas was 7-4 after Thanksgiving and looking ahead at a December that included 2 games against very poor teams (Arizona and Tampa Bay) and 3 divisional wars, with 2 of those games on their home field in Arlington.

And yet, a 1-4 finish has the fan base as frustrated as ever that once again their team cannot put together results at the time of year where teams either load up for a title run or go home with tears streaming down their face. This Cowboys team is going to need a lot of tissue.

So, where does one properly place the blame? One could easily suggest the better question is where does one NOT place the blame?

The Dallas Cowboys organization has not passed the test yet again for a myriad of reasons. And, with all due respect to Emmitt Smith, mental toughness is well down the line. Emmitt might think that mental toughness is the sole explanation for a team not rising to the occasion in a place like New York like he did in 1993, but, Emmitt played on a team that had many Hall of Fame caliber players and depth that amazed any observer. Mental toughness is a great tie-breaker when talent is equal, but in this space, the premise is that the Cowboys have some very impressive top end talent, but not nearly enough strength on their roster to win a game like the contest that was asked of them on Sunday Night in New York.

There is a theory around these parts that Tony Romo has a bad December record. This would make sense if he was playing tennis or golf, but in football it doesn't compute. Yet, he will deal with the blame again. The reason for this is that it is an easy narrative that allows people (even national "experts") to simplify an extremely complex conversation down to one talking point that can be easily shared at a water cooler with coworkers. In football, that usually means that one either blames the coach, the quarterback, or both. And while they should certainly share the blame for another failure, there is no way that they should bear full responsibility for yet another Cowboys mess. Not even close.

This team fails in December for one primary and simple reason: The roster doesn't contain the quality personnel that is required to sustain the assaults of a 16-game campaign in the NFL.

Think about it: When does the team fail? December. In a 4-month season, which month would best reveal your depth and quality down the roster that can compensate for fatigue and injuries? December. The truth is that the Cowboys have enough talent on the top of their roster to compete with some of the best teams in the league. Romo, Ware, Witten, Austin, Ratliff are a very solid "Top 5". Bryant, Lee, Murray, Smith, and Jenkins are a reasonable 6-10 on a roster. But, then the drop-off begins on the roster. And if the season was just 8-10 games long, they would likely be able to hang in there. Any Cowboys historian will confirm that the team certainly gets to Thanksgiving in great shape nearly every season. So, what changes? Is it really that turning the calendar to the month of December is what makes a magical spell fall over Romo and the team where they can no longer compete?

Good teams in the NFL have quality from 1-10, but also from 11-53, too. When fatigue strikes Jay Ratliff, they have a player behind him who can bridge the gap. If Ware is being double-teamed, someone else can rise up. When the line is under siege, a solid veteran can do a reasonable job and protect his QB. The good teams have enough quality on their roster that they can construct a solid team effort for the regular season. Sure, they count on their stars to perform, but beyond that, there are starters and reserves that never find a magazine cover that do their job admirably.

December is when we find an offensive line that cannot allow Romo time to throw. Last night, the Giants drove the Cowboys OL back into their QB again and again. And why would this surprise anyone? The Eagles did, too. So did the Cardinals. And the Giants 3 weeks ago. As a unit, the Cowboys OL failed again. And to show you their contributions as attrition took its toll, the Cowboys allowed 6 sacks in September, 9 in October, 5 in November, and 19 in December.

6 sacks last night in the biggest game of the season matches all of the sacks allowed in 2 other months of the season. Simple explanations will smirk at another Romo failure, but anyone who follows the NFL knows that teams don't win if they get sacked 6 times. The league is 8-49 in the last 3 seasons when a QB is sacked that often. 14% win percentage says all you need to know.

It would sure be great to blame injuries for the OL breaking down, but that would be difficult to do. The team had perfect health at tackle this season, and the interior of the line was ignored by the GM all season. Most NFL observers would suggest that the Cowboys OL was exactly what they thought it would be. Poor. It offered the team an inconsistent running game and horrendous pass protection as the season built to its climax.

And, then there is the defense. A change of coordinators and schemes disguised the truth for a period of time. But in the end, we see the truth again: The personnel on the defense has some top-side talent (Ware, Ratliff, and Lee) but not enough to compensate for a unit that has weaknesses in many other spots. Putting tape on a shot-gun wound will cause many to blame Rob Ryan, but I would love to see what coordinator could make sense of what he was given. No offseason. No upgrades. No help from the draft. No expenditures. Just take the worst defense in franchise history and fix it with your magical formula. Good luck, Rob.

The truth appears to be this: The Cowboys have relied on those trusted top end players for years and have seen the same results - good seasons, but generally no years that have been good enough. The premise that Romo, Ware, Ratliff, and Witten can drag this team up and down the field with so many passengers is just nonsense. The title contenders in this league are not 5-strong. They are 53-strong.

Look at this history of Cowboys draft picks sometime. You will see the horrible truth that Bill Parcells and his crew put the top of this roster in place. And the rest of the roster is a product of his last draft (his worst) and every draft since. The sum total of the 2006-2011 drafts right now on this roster is minimal. The should be the spine of the roster. Instead, here is what the last 6 drafts have yielded that were present and accounted for last night in New York:

2006: Jason Hatcher (edit 1/3)
2007: Anthony Spencer, Doug Free, Alan Ball
2008: Felix Jones, Mike Jenkins, Martellus Bennett, Orlando Scandrick
2009: Stephen McGee, Victor Butler, John Phillips
2010: Dez Bryant, Sean Lee, Sean Lissemore
2011: Tyron Smith

48 picks. And I just put a list together of 7 starters and 7 reserves. Many are disappointments and have never come close to reaching their potential. But, when you have 53 players on your roster and 22 "starters" you simply must do better than this. None of these 48 picks have threatened to knock Ratliff, Ware, Romo, Witten, or Austin out of their perches at the top of the roster yet. Lee, Smith, and Bryant may soon. DeMarco Murray shouldn't be forgotten. But, Spencer, Jones, Jenkins, and Bennett are all disappointments from where they were taken in the draft.

This is not a Tony Romo, Jason Garrett, or Rob Ryan issue. They should share in the blame, but this largely remains a Jerry Jones issue. He has built a stadium that can host a Super Bowl. But he sure hasn't built a roster that can play in one.

Players play. Coaches coach. And the General Manager is fully responsible to make sure his team is 53-strong. Playing a Giants team in a winner-take-all scenario on Sunday Night revealed a similar result that a showdown with the Eagles in 2008 and the Vikings in 2009 demonstrated: This organization is a long way from being where their fans are used to being back in the glory days.

The GM thought that Phil Costa and Derrick Dockery could hold off the Giants front after believing that Bill Nagy and Montrae Holland were the answers. The GM thought that Keith Brooking and Bradie James could patrol the middle of the field and that Anthony Spencer could get to the QB in a game that mattered. The GM thought Terence Newman still had it and that no real personnel upgrades were required on that defense in the offseason.

And he was wrong again.

Are you tired of hearing that Jerry the owner should fire Jerry the GM and overhaul how this team selects its players? You should be. Despite a few respites when Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcells selected players (neither of which were perfect, but check their batting averages), Jerry and his crew have failed to assemble anything more than a team that rides its few star players right into the ground as they try to navigate around the replacement-level players that Jerry has assembled at every other spot on the roster.

He is banking on you blaming Ryan, Romo, and Garrett again. And he is banking on you buying $340 tickets again next season.

It will be interesting to see if or when the public will have had enough of his fantasy camp routine. Yes, it is his toy. But, much like a restaurant owner that wants to be chef, he will still need people to eat his meals.

This franchise is broken and it is not getting better. Another showdown against a beatable division rival showed you all you should need to see. Assuming the last 15 years didn't already provide enough evidence.

Sunday, January 01, 2012

2011 BaD Radio Podcasts

12/30/2011 - Episode #140

 The Christmas Tradition - the Air Jordans Reports, The voice of the Bruins' Jack Edwards interview, Steve Ott responds to the Jack Edwards interview, and the final screenless of 2011.


12/9/2011 - Episode #139

White Elephant Day coverage,  Donovan's awesome tickers, a Corby  prank about TC not being able to use the new parking garage , adult film star Rachel Starr, and personal life talk with Corby, Bob, Norm, and Sean Bass - then, screen less.


12/2/2011 - Episode #138

Bob Costas and the Sandusky interview (Slap, Slap, Slapping Sound), Newy and Terrell Owens fight on Twitter, the story of TC being sent to drug school.


11/25/2011 - Episode #137

The barbershop solves the JFK mystery, Dan's Thanksgiving, new Stars owner Tom Gagliardi, and an interview with Gary Bettman that proved quite attitudinal and controversial.


11/18/2011 - Episode #136

George defends his honor and the honor of the Musers guest bookings, Bob talks about the safety of Lewisville and apartment living, and a very odd amount of Tim Tebow talk.


11/11/2011 - Episode #135

he scandal at Penn State, News of feet washing ashore in Vancouver and Rick Perry/Barack Obama audio, and Magic Johnson HIV barbershop conspiracies.


11/4/2011 - Episode #134

 8 Billion People live on Earth, Craig Rosengarden Audio (again), and the boys discuss the episode about Tom Landry - A Football Life.


10/28/11 - Episode #133

Derek Holland interview from dugout after his near shutout -  George Dunham call's into BaD Radio - talks about being in St. Louis and Rangers being in World Series - CJ Wilson audio/bragging montage -  Brett Hull interview talks about being at World Series game 5


10/21/11 - Episode #132

Rangers win ALCS - I told you so's - Derek Holland's great game - Josh Hamilton talk - ALCS montage World series preview - Audio from ALCS - McCarver "Moneyball" and BaD World Series songs


10/14/11 - Episode #131

 Bob is back! - Honduras story #1 - 40 days there - beard talk - getting back in the swing of things - Coming to America for Justin Bob's Honduras story #2 - Things learned on the trip - Justin not knowing his own age - Power/government of Honduras Bob Honduras story #3 - Process of getting a passport/immigration visa for Justin - Justin getting a shot at the Doctor in Tegucigalpa.



10/07/11 - Episode #130

  Reaction to the Rangers ALDS win - Tampa organization talk - Napoli and Beltre, audio from the broadcast about Matt Harrison - JD talk - So good to see how the franchise has grown - Talk about the Tom Seaver interview - the awkward liner to end the interview - screenless


9/30/11 - Episode #129

 Rhads cries over Mike Modano's speech - Modano thanks all the media except for Rhadigan;  GBL pay off - green man suits at the Rangers game - Bob calls in from Honduras - talks about the long process and trying to kill time - screenless


9/23/11 - Episode #128

  Moneyball talk - Thoughts on the film - Dan thinks there are some serious inaccuracies - compare movie to the book Mark Followill filling in for Bob - station history - The Ticket Full Disclosure book - Mike Modano retires - audio when Modano was first drafted - Cowboy's talk Bob calls in from Honduras - talks about being in Honduras - flight being cancelled - a lot of bugs


9/16/11 - Episode #127 

 Funny banter - Dan needs a handy man to help do things around the house - Dan got a flat on the way to a dinner and had to changed a tire with help from Donovan Gibby Haynes interview - talks about his dad - plays a song clip of gibby singing dancing queen - talks about being in a band with Jonny Depp - TC ask about nude tennis;  Moneyball talk - get to see movie before it opens - audio from movie trailer Bob calls in from Honduras - His crazy week in Honduras


9/09/11 - Episode #126

  Ed Bark interview, Audio from Cowboys game - Michael Irvin in broadcast for color commentary (sounds like he's doing an 8:40 bit) - funny Irvin audio Mark Followill's play-by-play practice while basketball is in a lockout - doing play-by-play - Screenless - Bob calls in from Honduras - update on how the adoption process is going


9/02/11 - Episode #125

 Troy Aikman interview  GBL - Daniel Johnston - The devil in Daniel Johnston Documentary - TC wins Ebrake for the awkward end to the interview/asked Daniel Johnston to sing and he ends the interview Bob calls in from Honduras -


8/26/2011 - Episode #124

   Quick hit on Little League World Series - Dan's big news story - Kindergarten teacher in Murphy - Bob is leaving to go adopt a child from the Honduras - should be gone 4 to 6 weeks - talks about the some of the process of the adoption - talk a little bit about fight night


8/19/2011 - Episode #123

Most Eligible Dallas new tv show - talks about the different people on the show - Matt Nordgren was a UT quarterback - World Class Tragedy: Story of the Von Erichs - audio from the documentary - talk about the family and all the siblings that have passed - WWF Youtube video - audio of Knox City football - caller about Jerry Jones - Bob gives TC a hard time for having to do the weekly podcast the same night as top ten -


8/12/2011 - Episode #122

  Deion Sanders make the Hall of Fame - Story about what happened when Dan tried leaving San Antonio - Dan's car would start - Kid's wanted overhead light on - Triple A sent a truck to Houston instead of Houston Street - Couldn't get the part until the next morning - Next day audio Dan recaps story Bob's secret project - Bob wrote a book - About the 2011 Dallas Mavericks -  Screenless - Audio of Sean from Diamond Talk (taking calls goes bad/technical chaos on the board)


8/05/2011 - Episode #121

Cowboys training camp pop culture quiz - pop culturally bias quiz for the players - Dan has Jake and TC write white young questions and Donovan used black questions - LOL Comedy Club - Dan, Donovan, and Rhyner went to open mic night - audio from Donovan's stand-up (hurricane joke series) - Dan's stand - up (gay not bad, unless on youporn) Screenless - getting ready for fight night - thoughts on cowboys camp


7/29/2011 - Episode #120 

  The ticket Softball game against women's college softball team - beat the college girls - dan planking/owling at quiktrip park - dan bought a pitcher of beers for the softball girls - kid's begging for hat/shirt/towel - the way the ticket hats/shirts fit - jake doesn't think owling/planking is cool - $1 beer Audio bag - Spot during Rangers game that is driving Dan crazy (uverse commercial) - Rontina audio sent in from p1 (bad pronunciation of andre gurode) - NASCAR prayer auto-tuned (thanks God for his smokin' hot wife) Mike Modano interview - grass is always greener (big hockey city and media vs. media not bothering you) - talk about surgery - tv shows - golf Screenless - old 800 line - party pass at cowboy's game


7/22/2011 - Episode #119

Ralph Strangis - Stars play-by-play guy - wrestling announcer before stars - was on the TV show Press Your Luck 1983 - PYL Strangis audio Review of Breaking Bad - - Jake/TC about It's Just Banter - breaking down the GBL - 12 mins in still haven't broken down one guest - two hour long podcast - audio from podcast Trey Channey - Poot from the wire


7/15/2011 - Episode #118 Part 2

 Each and Every Dirk Nowitzki's visits with Bob and Dan - Part 2: All of the Dirk interviews from 2007-08 until 2010-2011.


7/15/2011 - Episode #118 Part 1 

TC uses a vacation week to offer this: Each and Every Dirk Nowitzki interview from over the years with Bob and Dan - Part 1 - All of the Dirk interviews from  the very first one way back in 1999-2000 until 2006-2007.


7/8/2011 - Episode #117

TC gets kicked out of the Rangers clubhouse, Emily Jones does a bit with Mike Napoli, and the GBL season blasts off with the draft for the 2011 season.


7/1/2011 - Episode #116 

 Game of Thrones Talk, Bob's Birthday offers his H.S. basketball coach visiting the show, and a great game show at the Nice Look Barbershop.


6/24/2011 - Episode #115

the Tom Grieve batting challenge, the boys explain the origins of drops, Jim Knox joins us at the ballpark, and Ask Sports Sturm.


6/17/2011 - Episode #114

The Mavericks Win the NBA Title!  Stories from the bowels of the arena, talk of the game, and celebration talk.


6/10/2011 - Episode #113

NBA Finals 2011 featured a media guy vs LeBron battle, Some writer in Houston takes on Bob, and Bob makes a sports media power ranking list.


6/3/2011 - Episode #112 

 Lisa Miller - some chick who worked for Cumulus Miami, Game 2 of the NBA Finals talk and sound, and interviews with Heat fans.


5/27/2011 - Episode #111

 Mavs win the Western Conference Finals, Oprah does her last self-indulgent show, and Donovan talks to the locals of Oklahoma City - trailers vs apartments.


5/20/2011 - Episode #110

 The world's most interesting man is in studio, Jimmy Goldstein, Twiggy talks bull fights in Spain, and Aqua Man talk as a preacher falsely claimed he was a Navy Seal.


5/13/2011 - Episode #109 

 Scoops Callahan visits Phil Jackson at the legendary coach's last ever press conference, tons of follow-up on the controversy Scoops caused, Donnie Nelson is in studio (including the awkward Robert Traylor incident), and Dan has 2 emails - rehab talk and BaD Radio curse.


5/6/2011 - Episode #108

 Death of Osama Bin Laden, Bob does Mike Doocy's show on the night of the story breaking,  we have a real Navy Seal in studio - Clint Bruce, and screenless.


4/29/2011 - Episode #107

Dan sees Petty theft, Dan attempts to predict Norm's plays and does the name game, and the kid who catches home runs at the Rangers games.


4/22/2011 - Episode #106

  Steve-O joins us in studio, Duke Coach Mike Krzyzewski joins us at the SMU Athletic Luncheon, Dan orders parfaits in Cleveland, and audio of the week including Donovan on a roller coaster.


4/15/2011 - Episode #105

One legged Stars fan, a review of Norm McDonald's sports show, and the guy who sings a Cowboys song.


4/8/2011 - Episode #104

Calling South Bend after the Aggies take down the Irish for the Women's Basketball title, a Steve Ott contest goes all wrong, Quick Magazine, and screenless.


4/1/2011 - Episode #103

  Quite possibly the first BaD Radio Sports Movie Review as they examine the movie Hoosiers, Ralph Strangis wants to review the movie Surviving the Game, and on Opening Day, Donovan sings the 2011 song and we are joined by Rangers expert Emily Jones.  Also a Twitter discussion about the accounts of George Dunham and Dan McDowell.


3/25/2011 - Episode #102

Bill Simmons joins us from the SMU Athletic Luncheon, Deion Sanders is on our phone, and the Musers Campout 2011.


3/18/2011 - Episode #101

 St Patrick's Day Call to Ireland, Bracket Dan 2011, and Bob gets all fired up about the 30 for 30 on Michigan's Fab 5.


3/11/2011 - Episode #100

Bob Knight says crazy things on the same day that Pat Knight got fired, Killer Kellison makes his own podcast, and Donnie follows through on a claim that he can eat an entire box of Captain Crunch, and audio on Bob's powers of predictions.


3/4/2011 - Episode #99 

  Dan's Birthday Guests - Jamey Newberg and Carl Big Daddy Hairston and another amazing edition of Ghetto Jeopardy.


2/25/2011 - Episode #98 

  The awesome conclusion of another year of Homer Call of the Year as Homer Bowl XI goes down, more audio from Dwaine Caraway, a nice Ticketstock visit with Craig Luwdig including his amazing ability to consume beer, and screen less.


2/18/2011 - Episode #97

 Shawn Ryan from the Shield, Stars Roadtrip 2011 has Razor joining us live in Edmonton, and plenty of bits from Canada including Tom talking to cabbies about very inappropriate subject matter and the Gabby Urinator.


2/11/2011 - Episode #96 

  the controversy as the Prince Super Bowl party goes south on Chris Arnold, Audio from Dwaine Caraway on the Musers as Richard Hunter advocates for Michael Vick's dog, the Packers win the Super Bowl and screen less.


2/04/2011 -  Episode #95

  BaD Radio broadcasts from Radio Row at the Super Bowl in Dallas at Super Bowl 45, interviewing Miles Austin, the Wayans brothers, Herschel Walker with Alistar Overeem and Joe Montana. Plus Intern James.


1/28/2011 - Episode #94 

 The boys do the show from Mavericks practice and have a double-dip with Mark Cuban and Dirk Nowitzki, then Dan finds tapes of old station stuff on the 17th anniversary of the station with historical Ticket audio and special guest Mike Rhyner.


1/21/2011 - Episode #93

 a long and fascinating visit with Charles Haley, the MLK twitter controversy which includes a battle with Sean Bass, and BaD Radio's visit with an Aaron Rodgers expert who happens to call into the show.


1/14/2011 - Episode #92 

 BaD Radio reviews a big Dan bit involving the suit bet and the potential return of the Crow line, has a programming meeting and says what's on their TiVo with regards to placing all of their favorite shows into historical tiers.


1/07/2011 -  Episode #91

BaD Radio reviews Dick Clark's performance New Year's Eve, goes through the first wildcard round of the Homer Call playoffs, and talks about the Capitols v Penguins HBO series 24-7.




Thursday, December 29, 2011

X's and O's Breakdown - The Twist Stunt



According to NFL Statistics, the Dallas Cowboys are right about at the league average when it comes to preventing sacks. This season, the Cowboys have allowed 33 sacks on their QB, with the league average being 35 for the season. As a point of reference, Buffalo and Tennessee lead the league with just 21 sacks against, and St Louis and Arizona are the league worst, allowing their poor QBs to be sacked 52 times each. It has not been fun to be Sam Bradford.

But, there are so many reasons to ignore this statistic as a rule. I hear people all the time trying to suggest the Cowboys are a strong team in pass protection because they don't allow that many sacks. But that doesn't account for many items that cause sacks allowed to be misleading.

Such as, how many sacks is the QB saving with his mobility? How many 3 and 5 step drops are being called by offensive coordinator because he doesn't trust protection? How many RBs and TEs are staying in to help out OL because of fear of the OL's ability to be able to hold the pocket?

None of these considerations are found when we discuss sack totals, but all of them affect the number. If the object of the game is to prevent sacks, it would be easy for a coach to avoid almost all of them. But, the object of the game is to score as many points as possible, and that can usually only be done by risking your QB on occasion. Max protection can often keep your QB clean, but it dramatically reduces the chances for your receivers to cause coverage issues for the defense. Only 2 players in route? Way to easy to bracket with corners and safeties over the top. A truly difficult offense to handle has 4-5 targets out in route on most passing plays. They spread you out, invite a blitz, and then burn you quickly.

Which brings us to our breakdown from the Philadelphia game - a play that on the official game sheet reads like this, "(9:57) (Shotgun) T.Romo pass incomplete short middle to M.Austin [J.Babin]. Pass incomplete on crossing pattern; Hughes closest defender at the Philadelphia 45."

That's right. What could have been the most pivotal play of the season for the Dallas Cowboys has almost no statistical bearing whatsoever.

It reminds you of this play from 2010: "(12:20) T.Romo pass short left to M.Austin to NYG 29 for 14 yards (T.Thomas) [M.Boley]. DAL-T.Romo was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Pass complete on comeback curl.

That, of course, was the play where Tony Romo was lost for the year due to Chris Gronkowski not reading and picking up a blitz from Michael Boley. Romo's collarbone was broken, and 2010 was completely gone down the tubes.

This demonstrates 2 important truths. 1) Sacks only cover a fraction of pass protection and 2) The Season can be rocked from its foundation on any play of the season if you get your QB hit too hard.



Click Here to see full video of this play.

Let's analyze this play from the perspective of the Philadelphia Eagles. First, they realize that Sammy Morris is in charge of blitz pickup on 3rd Downs. This is a far cry from Felix Jones or DeMarco Murray. They have been in Dallas since training camp and getting familiar with all of Dallas' protection concepts since installation. Morris was signed off the street a few weeks ago, and while most running plays are easy for him to comprehend, complex protection situations will be the last to come along.

Next, the Eagles surely have studied how Arizona sacked Tony Romo 5 times. Those sacks came off multiple attacks of Phil Costa and the interior of the Dallas OL. Not necessarily his anchor issues (which are substantial), but rather his awareness and ability to see something in pre-snap, but then adjust at the last second to an ambush blitz. Stunts and blitzes are starting to overwhelm him, and the Eagles are smart enough to see that trend and mimic it.

So, look at the picture at the top of the blog. The Eagles are showing Jason Babin-93 out wide of Tyron Smith at RT again in his "wide 9" technique. The possibilities of them taking a player this wide and stunting him all the way to the opposite "A" gap (between Costa and LG Holland) seems so remote and ridiculous that I highly doubt the Cowboys even considered it a concern.

Then, look at the safety 26-Jarrett start deep and then creep to the outside of Babin. This will be the focus of Sammy Morris on blitz pick up, and will occupy all of his attention. Thus, now the Eagles have a 3 on 3 situation. They will take 50-Matthews (MLB) and 98-Patterson (DT) and send them both away from center. Matthews will attack the RG (Kosier) and Patterson will attack the RT (Smith). This occupies them and leaves Babin to swing all the way around their backs. But, he won't dive inside Costa to his right shoulder, because Costa is already headed that way to get Matthews.

Instead, as the 2nd picture clearly reveals, Babin shows his insane athleticism and heads to the left side of Costa. Costa must hear Kosier or Smith call out this stunt and then slide over to Babin. If it is covered correctly, Costa slides to Babin, Kosier slides to Matthews, and Smith still has Patterson.

That same picture shows Kosier is falling backwards, so if Costa does leave Matthews, then Casey will get to Romo, but it won't be with as much speed or size as Babin. Costa has to leave his guy and get the unblocked sack leader. It is highly possible the blame falls to Smith for not calling out what is going on, but you can understand at the NFL game, audio alerts are certainly not fool-proof in loud stadiums.

And now, below, you see the horrible result. How Romo stays relatively healthy after this hit is truly a smile from the football gods.



And there you see the issues involved with pass protection. You tip your cap to the Eagles for finding a concept that gets a free run on Romo, and you try to make sure it doesn't happen again. Trouble is, a few plays later, with McGee in the game, a similar stunt from Trent Cole runs right by Costa and hits McGee in the mouth, too. Teams are attacking the middle with great regularity now that they see it is a tough spot for the Cowboys to defend.

And today, in a dark room, the Giants are looking at this play and taking careful notes.