2014 Cowboys Draft Weekly Notebook: Episode 4 - Defensive Tackles

Now we are in the phase of player evaluations by position.  I am not sure how far into the positions we will go, but I definitely want to hit defensive tackles, defensive ends, safeties, offensive tackles, offensive interior, and quarterbacks.

That will hold me for 6 weeks and at that point we may discuss a few at other spots or just start stacking our board.  Let's sort this out as we get through March.

However, the exercise for me is as follows.  I want to know each player in the Top 100 at these positions, so just like the last several years I spent January building a consensus on who the Top 100 players are by using my normal sources of public lists from respected minds, opinions from scouts, and my own best deductions.  Obviously, there is no true Top 100, so we have to remain flexible that many who are in the mix in December may not be in May and the opposite is also true.

This week, we are going to tackle the top several DT candidates and analyze them by looking at no fewer than 3 of their games (sometimes as many as 5).  I try to pick 1-2 a day until I get through those I think will be in at least the Top 2 rounds.  It is ideal to watch All-22s, but that is not possible for everyone so I end up watching a lot of TV copies and sometimes resort to the many available games and cut-ups that are online.  If you look around, you might be surprised how much tape of a player is available to anyone who cares to look.

I want to analyze the positives and negatives of each player and then discuss how he might fit in Dallas and whether he is a pick that is attractive to me.  Not rocket science, but it does require a little bit of effort and imagination to sort whether a player is ideal for the next level.

Let's get started:

Aaron Donald - Pittsburgh - 6'1 - 288

Donald was up for a number of awards this year and won the Outland Trophy.  He is a spectacular player who does so many things for his defense and you can see as the year went on he was clearly in a spot where teams were terrified of him and therefore focusing their game plan on not letting him ruin it.

Donald's production checks out at absurdly high levels and in 51 college games he had a crazy 95.5 explosive plays for a defensive tackle.  In the ACC, no less, Donald was a man amongst boys.

Stats	Sacks	TFLs
2013	11	28.5
2012	5.5	18.5
2011	11	16
2010	2	3
Totals	29.5	66

The questions about Donald are whether he is a strong run anchor and I can see those concerns, but he is not a run speed bump.  He does a great job stopping run plays, but his specialty is the ability to get around offensive linemen with almost no effort.  He is as close as this draft has to the ideal 3-technique that could grow into your version of Warren Sapp or Tommie Harris.  He spends time in the backfield on a regular basis and just looks like a player that must be doubled.  Of course, if you start doubling a 3-tech, that leaves your DE on his side with a TE or RB and that should be a great thing for a defense.  

He has long arms, a quick "get off" that wins many battles at the snap, and appears to not have much quit from the games I watched - Florida State, Miami, and Notre Dame.  He moves to DE on 3rd Down and appears to have solid moves as a pass rusher on the outside.  He can show versatility and can dominate any single teams.  

I promised to find negatives, and I know people don't want their tackles to be 6'1 if they can help it, but he wins with leverage so much that I am fine with his stature.  If you want to know who the dream target should be for the Dallas Cowboys when they get to the clock, it is Pitt's Aaron Donald.  And, it appears he might have a chance due to his height and run stopping warts that some have seen. But, a guy who averages almost 2 destructive plays per game over 4 years in school?  Sign me up.

Timmy Jernigan - Florida State - 6'2 - 298

Jernigan is in everyone's 1st Round and he is part of a very talented Florida State defense that will have several players drafted.  He is the exact opposite of Donald in his skill set from what I can tell as he is all about stuffing the run and not too great at getting to the QB.  He played the 1-technique and projects to the very same spot, so right there you might get memories of how Rod Marinelli fells about taking him at Pick 16/17 because just last season we all remember the war-room story of how Marinelli said you don't take a 1-tech in the 1st round.  It just isn't the type of game changing value that you are looking for because while he is a load to deal with, much of his damage is done at the line of scrimmage rather than behind the line of scrimmage.

Stats	Sacks	TFLs
2013	4.5	11
2012	1.5	8
2011	2.5	6
Totals	8.5	25

I watched Boston College, Florida, and Auburn for Jernigan and saw some very impressive things.  He looks like a great athlete with his ability to stand his ground with his muscle and he sure hustles well.  There was a play in the Boston College game where he helped run down a running back 40 yards downfield and looked like a LB running in the open field.  

He is great against the run and demands a double team as he will make a 1-on-1 with a center look silly.  But his pass rush is pretty much based on being left alone.  He is not beating many interior guys and getting to the QB, in fact, when he pass rushes, he is often the 4th Seminole upfield to the QB.  He absolutely showed everyone in the Auburn game that he can take over, but my overall view of Jernigan at this point is that he will be a solid pro, but not a star.  I think he is a guy you would love to have on your team, but I am not sure I would build my defensive line around him.  For me, Jernigan vs Donald is not even close.    I like him, but don't love him.

I am sure he is a 1st rounder in May, and for some teams he might complete their front wall, but with Dallas having needs at pretty much all 4 spots across the line, this guy is frosting, not the cake.


Louis Nix - Notre Dame - 6'3 - 340

Nix is a real treat to watch a highlight film of, because he is the type of guy who is such a physical freak with his size and feet that his best 10 plays of the last 2 years have been jaw-dropping.  But, he is also a guy who has productivity issues, health concerns, and for Dallas, just doesn't seem to be much of a scheme fit.

First, he is a clear nose tackle for a 3-4, and if you squint you can certainly make him your 1-tech in a 4-3.  He is a guy who must be doubled by the center and guard and even that looks like a cumbersome load at times.  I have seen him forklift a center right back into the QB, but obviously, his production show that this isn't happening much.

My real issues with Nix is wondering where his conditioning is at because I saw a lot of plays where I wanted more battle out of him.  He comes and goes in that department which simply might mean he needs the chance to catch his breath and therefore is only as good as his conditioning.  He also had a chance to be at the very top of the draft, but his knee did not allow him to put much good tape out for 2013 and therefore I went back and spent time again with his 2012 work against Oklahoma and Alabama and then his Michigan game in 2013.

Stats	Sacks	TFLs
2013	0	2
2012	2	7.5
2011	0.5	4.5
Totals	2.5	14

Now, before you get too worked up about his lack of production, Haloti Ngata and Dontari Poe would both be examples of why this type of player is not judged on stats.  This is a disruptive player who causes issues with anything you try to do between the tackles and his injury-marred 2013 will not help his case this spring, but in 2015 this past season won't matter to whoever owns his rights.  

He is a very promising talent and a bit of a tease.  He is too good to ignore, but not good enough to gamble upon if you are a team like the Cowboys.  Also, he is not an ideal scheme fit, so let's move on, but I do want the record to reflect my feelings that with the right coaching, he is going to make a nice living in this league once he gets his conditioning and health squared away.

Rashade Hageman - Minnesota - 6'6 - 318

In this position group, there is always a player who divides the opinion makers, and this year, it is a Golden Gopher.  He is an absolutely imposing figure who looks so much like the build of Julius Peppers that you can understand why people could confuse the two getting off the bus.

And, again, if highlight films were the only determining factor, Hageman would be ranked higher.  For he has some freakish moments where he destroys anyone in his path and then tackles a RB 4 yards deep.

He does make you wonder about what he would be like surrounded with players of his caliber because at Minnesota he sticks out like a sore thumb, so attention-wise the opponent knows to watch #99.  The rap on him is that he is too inconsistent and doesn't dominate enough, but I have seen enough guys who are double teamed all of the time to say that although I wish they never got discouraged, you see it happens and it shouldn't be the end of the world as a guy waits for his draft day.  

Stats	Sacks	TFLs
2013	2	13
2012	6	7.5
2011	2	3.5
Totals	10	24

His biggest weakness for me is that he looks like a DE trying to play DT.  DTs are supposed to be well trained in leverage and winning in tight spaces, and he just doesn't do either of those really well. If "low man wins", in trench battles, then you can see that a guy who is 6'6 is going to have trouble getting under a guard.  Can he move to DE?  Well, he does on pass rushing downs and that is where I liked him the most, although with 2 sacks in 2013, I won't tell you that he is Deacon Jones.  

He has amazing tools and he can body slam guys and block kicks and bull rush and do plenty.  He also runs well and does look quick at times and at worst, attracts attention so others can eat against favorable match ups.   

Again, if I had a strong DL group, I would love to take a shot on this project player, but the Cowboys are not a candidate here for him to be their lead horse.  I just can't see that.  

That concludes the list of 4 DTs who I think could conceivable be picked in Round 1.  A few of them might drop to Round 2, but those 4 seem to have a chance at this point in time.

Now, 2 more who I would have to consider when the Cowboys pick at 48/49.

Will Sutton - Arizona State - 6'0 - 315

Here is a player who has not received any positive press in the last several months when it comes to his draft stock.  In fact, he is spending most of his time being called fat by those who watch his 2013 film.

Sutton was asked to gain lots of weight because his coaches at Arizona State wanted him to play more Defensive Tackle in 2013 and they projected him as a force in the middle that would be unstoppable.  However, as we saw so much at the Senior Bowl, the extra luggage he was carrying slowed down his cat-like speed in the trenches and actually made him a less appealing prospect.  BUT, that doesn't mean that you should be scared away from a 22 year old who exhibits a number of traits that I would love to add to the Dallas roster.

Sutton is a stud and if you can just go back to his old weight of 290, you would see a player who looks just as troublesome as Aaron Donald.  His USC game in 2012 was a thing of beauty as he had a violent game that was destructive in so many ways.  That is who I would be betting on returning.  He has a swim move and a relentless pass rush from the interior, and as his 37 TFLs in the last 2 seasons indicate, he will destroy some running plays with great ease.  

Stats	Sacks	TFLs
2013	4	13.5
2012	12	23.5
2011	2.5	5.5
2010	1	3
Totals	19.5	35.5

In 2013, he looked bigger and also looked slower.  He was chopped a few times in September, once in the Wisconsin game, and that looked like it slowed him down quite a bit as he might have transitioned into "careful to not get hurt before my draft" mode.  All that is true, but with 53 destructive plays in 2012-13, I wouldn't call him "fatso".  I would call him productive.  

I think he is dropping weight and if so, he might be the 2nd best candidate for the 3-technique vacancy that is being left open by Jason Hatcher.  I don't like him as much at 315, but this weight issue and his poor 2013 tape (relative to 2012) might allow him to fall down the board.  If he is there when the Cowboys go up in the 2nd - and I am absolutely guessing on February 12th that he might be, then I sprint to the podium and take him while giggling (unless I don't already have Donald in the 1st Round).  

DaQuan Jones - Penn State - 6'3 - 323

Now, this player is a difficult study as well.  First, he had almost no production before 2013, and the road is paved with prospects who had 1 good year and then returned to an anonymous career.  

He moves well and penetrates reasonably well.  He has a real solid motor and from what I saw - especially against Nebraska, he appeared to get better as the game went along.  I think his best attribute is that he has quite a bit of position-flex in that they played him up and down the line and at different points of his 2013, I bet he played all 4 spots along the defensive line.  

Stats	Sacks	TFLs
2013	3	11.5
2012	0.5	2
2011	0	0
2010	1	2
Totals	4.5	15.5

He is an active body and perhaps he will only be a solid 1-technique for the future.  He is a tier below, but unlike some of the other bodies that surround him in the rankings, I think he could be a very valuable addition if you could find him in the 2nd or even 3rd round.  I would not overpay for him, but of the players who are down a bit on the board at this spot, DaQuan's tape caught my eye the most.

Keep an eye on his ability in the combine because that might determine what level his prospects are.

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There are 2 other DT prospects that I have not included, Florida's Dominique Easley and Notre Dame's Stephon Tuitt.  I will get to Easley and I will keep Tuitt at DE for now, but I think he might have DT in his future.

Otherwise, I believe that should cover your Top 50 picks at DT.  Of course, with almost 3 months to go, a lot can change.

Comment below on your agreements/disagreements and next week we will try to turn out a new group of prospects, likely at Safety.

Once again, I would recommend you examine tape of all of these guys over at Draft Breakdown and decide for yourself who you like most at this position of great need of the Cowboys this spring.  

Bag of Pucks - Feb 11 - Olympic Break Edition

There is no question that when a team is playing fantastic hockey that all surrounding the squad want the next game to be played as soon as possible.  That, of course, won't happen here for the Dallas Stars who last played Saturday night in an impressive shutdown of the Phoenix Coyotes and won't play again for 16 more days when the Carolina Hurricanes come calling on February 27th due to the Olympic break that has many of the leagues top players in Sochi for the Olympic Tournament that starts tomorrow.

As a brief aside, I highly recommend the NHL Gamecenter App for your phone to help with schedule, channel assignments, stats, and information regarding the Olympic tournament, but I am guessing if you care enough to read a column on the Dallas Stars every week, odds are pretty good you already have the Gamecenter App to follow the Stars, so you are all set up already.  Hint: Team USA starts Thursday at 6:30 am on NBC Sports with Canada and Jamie Benn starting the same morning at 11:00 am on USA Network (which is confusing to put the USA on NBCS and Canada on a Network actually called "USA").

You hate to stop down a rolling freight train when it has gained momentum, especially if you are aware of the roller coaster ride that the entire Stars season has been.  If you divide the season into 10 game segments, which is surely something that coaches do when they track the relative progress of the squad, you see how absurdly "to and fro" this season has been for the local side that is trying to break its playoff drought.  

It is a long season.  Good things are happening in Dallas.  But as we reach the 60 game barrier soon, check this chart below to see how they are completing the 6th segment of a season that just cannot sustain its course in either direction:

 With a maximum of 20 points in a 10-game segment, you can see that the Stars just cannot put 20 games together of excellence.  So, with 24 games to go, you can understand how this tight battle that includes the effort to hold off 4 other teams (Phoenix, Vancouver, Winnipeg, and Nashville) for the final wildcard playoff spot is anything but a simple task.

I have no idea how many people read the column I write at DallasStars.com, but I would invite you to read the most recent one I have written which breaks down this playoff push (way too early, I admit).

Here is a brief excerpt of said essay:

(8) DALLAS: 58 games/64 points - We have talked plenty about how the Stars have started scoring on the power play and have limited all shots on goal by their opponents to well below 30 on a nightly basis. But, clearly, the fact that they were so awful in the first three weeks in January (1-8-1) and then so red hot in the last three weeks (6-1-2) makes us wonder a bit which Dallas team we will see over the final 24 games of the stretch. As it stands at this very moment, they hold a tie-breaker over the Coyotes so they are in, but given that there are five teams within four points, there is no time to do anything but keep winning. The great news is that even though he was in a goal scoring "drought", the team is still led by Tyler Seguin in points in 2014 as he has 17 in the New Year, with Jamie Benn at 16. But, they have been aided with plenty of help and the 18-year old Val Nichushkin has six goals in January-February and that trails only Jamie Benn. Keep digging, boys. 

(9) PHOENIX: 58 games/64 points - The Coyotes are that one team that you don't want to depend upon for losing a game down the stretch because it sure seems like nobody grinds out results like Dave Tippett and his crew in the desert. The Stars had to take four of four points from them last week to close the gap they had built up over Dallas, and they did. However, the two teams are in a deadlock with the same number of games to play and points in the bank. The stretch run will be fantastic and if there is a team that should not be undersold, it would be a team that figures it out almost every year. And we all know that the Coyotes have been pretty solid in that department over the Tippett run. 

(10) VANCOUVER: 60 games/63 points - The Canucks have really been a spectacle in the last month as the NHL's ironman Henrik Sedin has missed a bunch of games with a rib injury after being crosschecked by Martin Hanzal of Phoenix. Then, of course, the Canucks lost their coach, John Tortorella, after the line brawl incident against Calgary three weeks ago. Well, that hasn't really worked out very well for Vancouver which has now lost 11 of their last 14 games and went from nine points up on Dallas on Jan 1 to one point behind at the Olympic break. They also have played 60 games so the Stars and Coyotes will have that advantage when play restarts. You certainly do not want to count them out, as this time will give Sedin more time to get his body right, but Vancouver looks really lost without a compass at the moment. 

(11) WINNIPEG: 60 games/62 points - If it is possible for a Canadian team to have a story under-reported, it would seem that there should be more talk about this insane run that has occurred over the last month since the Jets decided to fire Claude Noel and hire Paul Maurice to coach the Jets. Since the firing on January 12, the Jets are 9-3-1 and have absolutely dominated the scoreboard with a ton of goals. People have always talked about the talent on the roster, but it had never really resulted in wins. But, Maurice knows his way around the NHL circuit for sure and looks like they have caught lightning in a bottle. The odd part is that Winnipeg was dead and gone before this rally and still may not be considered a real playoff contender by some, but discount this Winnipeg team at your own peril. They have done much of their damage with Maurice on the road, and we all know what advantage their rink can represent. 

(12) NASHVILLE: 59 games/60 points - And then those Predators. Like the Coyotes, they get results because of their ability to play their system and depend on grinding out results that aren't pretty. In fact, they have points in seven of their last nine games (since their spanking of Dallas on January 20), but have been outscored over that stretch 27-25. They have nobody with over 40 points, but five players with at least 30 points. The Stars, for example, have two players - Seguin and Benn with 50 points, but nobody else over 30. The Predators are balanced and confident in their system, and if Pekka Rinne returns down the stretch, things could get very interesting. As it stands, they appear to be on the outside looking in at the present.

Look, I fully recognize a breakdown of the 5-teams-one-spot blog is absurdly early pre-Valentines, but I am really taking this playoff dream seriously.  I have no idea what they are capable of for the final 24 games, but I am guessing we should assume it will take at least 30 points to get the final spot.   So, 94 points needed for the Stars seems to be the bare minimum, and maybe 34 to feel safe (98).  That is a real task if you put pen to paper.  For now, we will allow everyone to breathe and for many to go all the way to Russia and back while playing a ton of physical, high-pressure hockey games for their home countries.  No worries.

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Since we do have this awkward break in the action, I also thought we could study the first 58 games by examining the special teams briefly.  It is, again, best done by 10-game segments and we can see that in the department of penalty killing the Stars ability to kill off Power Plays at a Top-10 level (which is 83% or better) mirrors the exact ability of the team to get points.  This may depend on the ability for the best penalty killers to be available and at the top of their game.  

Those most used penalty killers include: Alex Goligoski, Brenden Dillon, Trevor Daley, and Jordie Benn on the D, with Vernon Fiddler, Cody Eakin, Antoine Roussel, and Ryan Garbutt up front.  There are others who contribute, but those are the Top 8 that are being used right now.  

Very little glamour here, but you can see that as the penalty kill goes, so goes the good fortune of the Dallas Stars...

The Stars are 20th in the NHL in Penalty Kill at 80.1% on the season, which oddly has been a bit of a strength over the last several seasons.  They have been in the middle of the league at this stat throughout the Glen Gulatzan run and into Lindy Ruff.

Ah, but now, the dreaded and feared power play.

Since the 2008 season, the Stars power play has always been pretty powerless, ranging from 13% at its worse to 18% at its best.  If 25% is Pittsburgh and 20% gets you in the Top 10 in the league, we should set our goals for anything at 20%.

This year, at 15.1%, they sit 23rd overall in team rank.  Last season, they were ranked 18th, after 2012 where they were dead last in hockey with a power(less) play at 13%.

But take a look at the graphic below to see how the Stars added new personnel and took a while (into December) to sort out this new power play.  But since then, they have kicked it into gear and have given us a 28 game sample that has not moved above or below 20% on the button.

To be exact, they are 20 out of 100 since Dec 13th, which means that not only are they in the Top 10 in conversion rate, but they are #1 during this long stretch in power play opportunities.

Let me repeat: Since December 13th, Game 31-Game 58 of their season, no team in the sport has been on the power play more than the Dallas Stars.  Other teams are in the mid to high-90s, but nobody has reached 100 besides this team.

So, you are on the job as much as anyone and you are converting at 20%?  It doesn't mean that everything is going to go right, because the Stars had a 1-8-1 stretch during this haul, but are you kidding me?  This team is pretty good right now.

They have certainly stacked the power play with the star power.  Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn have been on the ice for 105 and 101 minutes during this stretch, with Alex Goligoski and Erik Cole next at 95 and 93 minutes of PP ice.  Then, Alex Chiasson is next with 86 minutes and it drops below 60 minutes with Ray Whitney, Cody Eakin, Rich Peverley, and Sergei Gonchar all between 50-60 PP minutes and then drops again into the 20s with Val Nichushkin and Shawn Horcoff.

But, the consistency from night to night is solid.  Add this to the Corsi/Fenwick #s that show the Stars are almost always winning the puck possession battle at even strength and we have reason to believe that there is nothing fluke-ish about the team's performance levels.  I say that because this team has been in the playoff mix several times in the last several years, but many times I did wonder how they were doing it.  Smoke and mirrors was usually my explanation with an occasional reference to the dead cat bounce.

I don't see that this season.  I see quality.  Not enough to be a contender, but enough to say that they are building a foundation and there is more substance than there has been in a long time around here.

Now, hopefully, they can figure out what might be added for the stretch run because I don't think they are inferior to the other teams in this playoff mix.

Next time, we will look at trade deadline targets and how it might fit with the bigger plan.  But for now, it is interesting how evidence is everywhere that indicates this team is ready to be taken more seriously in the mix for the post-season.

DallasStars.com - Stars at the Break In The Playoffs!

With 24 games to go, but none of them in the next 2 weeks, the Stars wait for the spectacle of the Olympics to pass with no unsavory developments (Stay healthy, Dallas representatives!).

For they have dug in and reeled off result after result since their debacle 3 weeks ago tonight in Nashville where many of us wondered if all was lost as that capped off a 10-game run of form that included just 1 win.  And during that time, the Stars fell like a rock from the edge of the playoffs all the way back down to the 11th spot in the conference, and a full 9 points off the final playoff spot.

Now, I don't know where you stand on these matters, but to me, a 9-point deficit in late January spells a perfect time to pull on the brakes and sell off your veteran players to play for next year.  That might seemed a harsh stance to take at roughly the 50-game mark, but sometimes if you are the first to declare yourself a seller, you can get more for what you are selling.

But, the Stars returned home the very next night, a 4-0 spanking of one of the team's they were chasing - Minnesota - and basically the Stars haven't stopped reeling of results since.  Points in 8 of their last 9 games with 6 regulation wins, 2 OT losses, and the only night in which they didn't gather at least a point to keep moving north in the standings was a home game against the Colorado Avalanche which might have been one of their better performances of the entire streak.

So, how long does it take to catch a team with a 9-point lead?  Evidently, not long, as the Stars passed Vancouver on Saturday night when the Stars beat Phoenix for the 2nd time in the week and the Canucks lost again.  The Canucks surely aided the effort by losing their 7th game in a row and have pretty much remained at where they were 3 weeks ago, but I suppose it offers some perspective on how big a lead a team has if you can make up a 9-point deficit in 9 games with 14 points gained to Vancouver's 4.

Of course, the situation is much deeper than enjoying Vancouver's tailspin timed up perfectly with Dallas' rise from the dead.  There are still 24 games for Dallas to play (22 for Vancouver).  The roller coaster ride isn't over.  Oh, and most importantly, it isn't those two teams.  It is Los Angeles, Vancouver, Minnesota, Phoenix, Winnipeg, and Nashville all fighting over 3 playoff spots.

7 teams for 3 spots with 24 games to go.  Do the math.

Let's look at it from a team-by-team basis:

TEAMS WHO ARE IN THE WEST BUT OUT OF REACH:  St Louis, Chicago, Anaheim, Colorado, and San Jose are not sweating March/April at all.  They all have at least 15 points on Dallas and the top 3 have a 20 point lead meaning they could basically not return from the Olympics for a month (Spring Break!) and still make the playoffs.

TEAMS WHO ARE IN THE WEST BUT OUT OF REACH IN THE OTHER DIRECTION:  Edmonton and Calgary are both well aware of how hopeless their season is this year.

And that leaves the 7 who are resting for the stretch drive.  Let's spend a moment on each one:

(6) LOS ANGELES:  59 games/68 points - The Kings are in the middle of a streak where they are just as happy as Vancouver that the Olympic break has arrived so they can stop losing.  They have lost 8 of their last 10, all of them in regulation, and many of them on home ice.  During that run they have scored only 13 goals in 10 games and Anze Kopitar is the only player with any level of point production during that stretch.  The Power Play is a mess, the penalty kill is a mess and the Kings look like they have lost their groove.  The good news is that they are still in front of the pack and are guaranteed the 6 seed as the 3rd best team in the Pacific under the new format.  The other piece of good news is that most people agree that they will find their form again because they are a really strong team.

(7) MINNESOTA:  59 games/69 points - The Wild are looking like a strong candidate for the top wildcard spot and have outplayed just about every team in the league since the calendar turned to 2014.  On January 1, they were actually behind Dallas in the standings, but have put on a 40 day run that has them at 11-4-2 over that run and has left the pack in the dust.  They are really playing solid hockey and since they are only losing 1 game every 10 days, it looks like the Wild are going to be in the playoffs.  The beauty with Minnesota right now is scoring depth as Mikael Granlund, Jason Pominville, and Zach Parise on the top line are not being expected to do it all.  They are getting production from Nino Niederreiter and Dany Heatley, too.  This is causing teams to have to score on Minnesota 3 times to beat them and that doesn't happen much.

And if you believe those 2 spots are pretty well set, then we are talking about these 5 teams for 1 spot.

(8) DALLAS: 58 games/64 points - We have talked plenty about how the Stars have started scoring on the power play and have limited all shots on goal by their opponents to well below 30 on a nightly basis.  But, clearly, the fact that they were so awful in the first 3 weeks in January (1-8-1) and then so red hot in the last 3 weeks (6-1-2) makes us wonder a bit which Dallas team we will see over the final 24 games of the stretch.  As it stands at this very moment, they hold a tie-breaker over the Coyotes so they are in, but given that there are 5 teams within 4 points, there is no time to do anything but keep winning.  The great news is that even though he was in a goal scoring "drought", the team is still led by Tyler Seguin in points in 2014 as he has 17 in the new year, with Jamie Benn at 16.  But, they have been aided with plenty of help and the 18-year old Val Nichushkin has 6 goals in January-February and that trails only Jamie Benn.  Keep digging, boys.

(9) PHOENIX: 58 games/64 points - The Coyotes are that one team that you don't want to depend upon for losing a game down the stretch because it sure seems like nobody grinds out results like Dave Tippett and his crew in the desert.  The Stars had to take 4 of 4 points from them last week to close the gap they had built up over Dallas, and they did.  However, the two teams are in a deadlock with the same number of games to play and points in the bank.  The stretch run will be fantastic and if there is a team that should not be undersold, it would be a team that figures it out almost every year.  And we all know that the Coyotes have been pretty solid in that department over the Tippett run.

(10) VANCOUVER: 60 games/63 points - The Canucks have really been a spectacle in the last month as the NHL's ironman Henrik Sedin has missed a bunch of games with a rib injury after being crosschecked by Martin Hanzal of Phoenix.  Then, of course, the Canucks lost their coach, John Tortorella, after the line brawl incident against Calgary 3 weeks ago.  Well, that hasn't really worked out very well for Vancouver which has now lost 11 of their last 14 games and went from 9 points up on Dallas on Jan 1 to 1 point behind at the Olympic break.  They also have played 60 games so the Stars and Coyotes will have that advantage when play restarts.  You certainly do not want to count them out, as this time will give Sedin more time to get his body right, but Vancouver looks really lost without a compass at the moment.

(11) WINNIPEG: 60 games/62 points - If it is possible for a Canadian team to have a story under-reported, it would seem that there should be more talk about this insane run that has occurred over the last month since the Jets decided to fire Claude Noel and hire Paul Maurice to coach the Jets.  Since the firing on January 12th, the Jets are 9-3-1 and have absolutely dominated the scoreboard with a ton of goals.  People have always talked about he talent on the roster, but it had never really resulted in wins.  But, Maurice knows his way around the NHL circuit for sure and looks like they have caught lightning in a bottle.  The odd part is that Winnipeg was dead and gone before this rally and still may not be considered a real playoff contender by some, but discount this Winnipeg team at your own peril.  They have done much of their damage with Maurice on the road, and we all know what advantage their rink can represent.

(12) NASHVILLE: 59 games/60 points - And then those Predators.  Like the Coyotes, they get results because of their ability to play their system and depend on grinding out results that aren't pretty.  In fact, they have points in 7 of their last 9 games (since their spanking of Dallas on January 20), but have been outscored over that stretch 27-25.  They have nobody with over 40 points, but 5 players with at least 30 points.  The Stars, for example, have 2 players - Seguin and Benn with 50 points, but nobody else over 30.  The Predators are balanced and confident in their system, and if Pekka Rinne returns down the stretch, things could get very interesting.  As it stands, they appear to be on the outside looking in at the present.

It is great to say you have the 8th spot at the Olympic break, but in the big scheme of things, it is merely a landmark along the way.  The Stars have the inside path (ever so barely), but also have 5 years of demons to deal with as they try to strike down that wall that has killed the organization's proud run of excellence through 2008.  It should be noted that Dallas, Phoenix, and Nashville still have cap room to deal until that March 5th deadline if they want to add a piece to go for the present tense, without sacrificing the future.

This is going to be excellent theater, but for now, grab you favorite flag and enjoy the Olympics.  The players who are there will avoid looking at the standings for a few weeks and try to achieve their dreams as we hope for their health.  Those who aren't in the Olympics will find a beach and get off their tired feet for 10 days before practices fire up again.

There is optimism in the air and hope rolling in.  24 games to go and I assume they will be filled with tension and the normal roller coaster of emotions.

5 teams for 1 spot?  It is never easy around here.

2014 Cowboys Draft Weekly Notebook - Episode 3

This week, I wanted to spend some time on how we see the current roster for the Cowboys so that when we look at their job on the weekend of May 8-10, we are clear on the direction for the potential targets.  This requires us to do a little self-evalutation, part of which should be accomplished in a longer project, but let's at least establish a starting point.

Today, we will tackle the defense for the Cowboys, which of course is coming off a season of amazing and historic lows in the history of the franchise.  There is no question that a lot of this was caused by injury, but in my estimation (based on our looks in the summer) much of this was caused by being undermanned at many positions even when fully healthy.  That is a speculative opinion, but I don't think it is too absurd to look at the names and the positions and argue that whatever caused the Cowboys to consider a major scheme change without major personnel adjustments (ala, the Parcells 3-4 transition that was supplemented in the 2005 draft by taking front 7 fitting players with their first 3 picks) was a rather silly idea.

The result of trying to do something like that - changing your scheme, but not changing your personnel - was a defense that looked to be stretched too thin in September, beyond its limits in October, and utterly hopeless in November and December.  If you want to call it just "bad luck" in the injury department, then you are taking away any culpability and responsibility from the front office and forgetting that many of us projected the defense would have an impossible time learning and executing what Monte Kiffin and Rod Marinelli had planned for them from the time this plan was announced.

How many defensive linemen do you need to run a 4-3 defense?  Well, in 2013, the Cowboys used 20.  According to the snap totals at ProFootballFocus.com, here is the list in the order of most snaps to fewest:  Nick Hayden, Jason Hatcher, George Selvie, DeMarcus Ware, Kyle Wilber, Jarius Wynn, Drake Nevis, Everette Brown, Caesar Rayford, Corvey Irvin, Edgar Jones, David Carter, Jason Vega, Jerome Long, Landon Cohen, Anthony Spencer, Martez Wilson, Frank Kearse, Everett Dawkins, and finally, Marvin Austin.  That is one team, one defensive line, and one front office trying to find anyone who can actually do what the scheme needs, but also trying to acquire them in places other than unrestricted free agency in March or in the spring draft.  In other words, they were trying to put together a defensive line - arguably the most important part of the 4-3 under defense - without any investment against the salary cap and checkbook aside from the 3-4 price tags invested in Ware, Hatcher, and Spencer.

The linebackers and the secondary are pretty much exactly what you planned in the spring.  This, again, is why I think it would be crazy to argue that they were snakebitten with horrible fortune.  The fact is they planned along to have Bruce Carter, Sean Lee, and somebody at the 3rd linebacker (Justin Durant was the idea, but they knew this was a spot where someone would have to emerge) and then in the secondary, they had Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne, Orlando Scandrick, Barry Church, and a safety to emerge later as their 5 in the back.  Claiborne was hurt for a while, Lee surely was the straw that broke the camel's back around Thanksgiving, but for the most part, that group we named were all relatively healthy and available for the season.  Carr, Scandrick, and Church all played 1,000 snaps and Carter played over 900 and would have played 1,000 if he wasn't benched a few times.

The biggest issue in the linebacker group is that Carter turned into a weakness in a lot scenarios rather than the strength that he was billed to be, and then in the back, Will Allen became JJ Wilcox who became Jakar Hamilton who became Jeff Heath as the center field free safety option.

The Cowboys lack of investment in safety goes back a long ways and I have written about it plenty enough over the years that after Jerry was so devastated that Roy Williams was over-rated and over-compensated that he swung in the opposite direction, giving the Cowboys Pat Watkins, Keith Davis, Alan Ball, and a host of other spares in the last 8 seasons or so that has now led us to where Jeff Heath - a guy that only made the roster as a special teams terror - being devoured by many a QB as the season reached its end.

One of my favorite false narratives of 2013 is the idea that the Cowboys were running a horrendous scheme that is outdated and just a poorly conceived piece of strategy, while the entire time the Seattle Seahawks were running to a large extent a Monte Kiffin defense in Seattle and winning games with a punishing defense that made many of their opponents beg for mercy on their way to capturing their first Lombardi Trophy.

Either Monte Kiffin is a ninny or he isn't, folks.  And when Tony Dungy and Pete Carroll believe in everything he teaches and have made it work for Super Bowl titles (in addition to the one Kiffin won with John Gruden in Tampa Bay), we should assume that his scheme (or Rod Marinelli's) can work with the proper ingredients.

Which leads us to where we want to go today.  I want to look at the current group and try to at least give a quick look at the depth chart from a blue/red/yellow approach.  Blue means that assuming full health you can feel good about this spot and red is a spot where you may survive, but if you can upgrade you should certainly do so.  Red could also be a player who is developing into a prospect, but is still a question mark at this point.  Yellow is a guy who is simply filling a spot on the roster and is likely to be the type of player that can be picked up on the street in November. It is a rough way to evaluate as we should break down each situation separately, but this is just to get a broad idea of what is what.

As you can see, this is a rather rough approach to things, but it should at least get us started.  In fact, I am likely being too kind to many on this chart, but let's try to remain realistic about how many changes they can make in one offseason (with no cap room).

Now, let's pull this all together.  As you consider what the Cowboys are trying to do defensively, you can simply look strategically at what the Seahawks are doing (which is singing from the same song book) or you can look at who is doing it.

Is Earl Thomas capable of doing certain things at safety that Jeff Heath is incapable of doing?  Can Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett close the edge faster than the Cowboys?  How about the play at the corner position?

As we look at the picks that the Cowboys have at their disposal, below, you can understand how the Cowboys could and should address defense over and over again in those first 3-4 picks and attempt to begin the transition to a defense that can at least raise itself up to league average.

Round	Pick	Notes
Rd 1	#16/#17	Coin Flip Will determine with Balt
Rd 2	#16/#17
Rd 3	#16/#17
Rd 4	#16/#17
Rd 5	#16/#17
Rd 6	Traded	Edgar Jones Trade with KC
Rd 7	#14 (Chi)	From Dante Rosario Trade
Rd 7	#16/#17
Rd 7	#23 (KC)	From Edgar Jones Trade

The Combine will help us further place some names up for evaluation, but I wanted us to continue to evaluate several names that can really help in a the most needed position of need - in my opinion that is two places, the 3-technique which was held down by Jason Hatcher last season, but I expect he is a guy who will be off to a new city for some handsome cash, and the free safety spot which might be dealt with by JJ Wilcox, but I don't really believe that I would be comfortable with that at this particular point.  They also need Defensive ends, a Sam linebacker, and depth everywhere, but 3-tech and free safety are the highest spots of need as I look at this.  

As potential 3-techniques, I hope you had a chance to look at Pitt's Aaron Donald who I really like.  He appears to be the most ideal choice I have seen at this point who A) is a player who is a real talent but B) has a chance to slide to the Cowboys because of concerns about his slightly less than ideal height.

Others who might be 1st round candidates include Minnesota's Rashede Hageman, Notre Dame's duo of Louis Nix (who seems more like a 3-4 nose or a 1-tech), Stephon Tuitt, Florida State's Timmy Jernigan, and then the drop off at that spot takes you down a round or two to the rest in the field.  

The safety spots are primarily Louisville's Calvin Pryor and Alabama's Haha Clinton Dixas well as others in Round 2-3 where I might like to target a safety like Baylor's hard hitting, trash talking safety, Ahmad Dixon (although he may be more ideal as a strong safety.  That is ok, I need interchangeable safeties, like Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are apt to do).  

I recommend you look at their work at DraftBreakdown.com to lock into their videos and I will break them all down in next week's edition.  

Finally, I want to leave you with mandatory reading from SmartFootball.com and Grantland.  It is an in-depth look at the Seattle defensive scheme that will really help you understand the scheme the Cowboys wish to run along with the hybrid concepts that they will run along the line and in the secondary when they are stocked with the proper talent.  It is awesome and something you should keep bookmarked to enhance your understanding of what the big picture is most likely focused on. 

Great job, Chris Brown, on that piece.

The Combine approaches!

Bag of Pucks - Feb 5

For all of the boring nights that the Stars have spent in Phoenix over the last several years, last night did a great job of changing that perception.  The local hockey side found a critical win in the desert and is grinding at one of their highest levels of the season and demonstrating with a 5-1-1 stretch over their last 7 that they are not interested in eliminating themselves before Sochi.

This team will certainly give you a change of direction over and over again over the course of the season.  Just look at how they love to go streaking!  5-0-2 to end 2013, then 1-8-1 to start 2014, and now 5-1-1 before the Olympics with 2 games to go (tonight at San Jose, Saturday night at home against the Coyotes again).

During this run, there are some things that have been wonderful signs that are quite obvious.  Look at the power play numbers:

The team is still ranked 23rd in the NHL, but on New Years, they were 29th in the league which most of us agreed was absurd for this young group, but it looks like we are seeing steady progress.  We should be careful to over-weight 7 game segments either way, but surely, this is a month where the Stars have found their man-advantage swagger a bit.  That cannot be a bad thing by any stretch of the imagination.

Do you want to know where a reasonable amount of credit must be steered?  Hold on to your hats, but with 11 points since January 1st, Alex Goligoski is delivering the offensive and yes, power play goods.  Again, we are reasonably sure that Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin are special enough players that they are going to get their share and the team's fortunes may not be wildly swayed.  In a way, it is  a question of who joins them along the path.  And to see Goligoski, Rich Peverley, Cody Eakin, and even causes that seemed somewhat lost like Erik Cole and Ray Whitney are putting pucks away and generating the all-important secondary scoring.

Surely, it won't sit at 27% for long, but what if you could just keep it at 20% or so?  That would really make a huge difference as we head down the stretch.

Meanwhile, what about another development that I did not see coming?

Long-time readers know that there is one place where I show substantial stubbornness and that is this ludicrous business of trying to be a team that wins hockey games on a regular basis while allowing a shooting gallery in your own zone.  I just don't think it can ever happen and since the glory days of Zubov and friends, this issue has been a nonstop headache.

My solution, of course, is to stop at no expense to add talent to the blue-line.  Sign, draft, steal, do whatever it takes to find those new studs on the defensive side of the roster that will assist in keeping the shots against down to a fair and reasonable level.  The Stars are consistently amongst the worst in the sport in this category over the last 5 years and their team results are tied closely in that game of correlation.

Well, trust me, before I show you these totals, I want you to know that I am not convinced that 7 games is enough to prove anything.

But, what has happened to the Stars defense?  How are they not allowing shots during this stretch?  Especially when they are dealing with the Penguins and the Ducks along the way?  Look at the trend here on shots against:

Bizarre, right?  What have they done?  Well, aside from some tactical adjustments that come from good coaching and the grind of the same guys, the only real personnel tinkering was Aaron Rome in for Kevin Connauton, but the young Connauton was playing well when he was in for the most part.  Rome is a steadying influence for sure, but it shouldn't move the needle this much.

Tonight, they play the best team in hockey at generating shots on goal, at their place, and on the 2nd night of a back to back, so all signs point to the Sharks getting 42 shots tonight, but don't let that over-run this trend that has anchored the Stars turnaround.

They are playing more soundly in their own end (although the Coyotes still had several breakaways) and of course are starting to bully enough shifts in the opposite end that we are seeing again that the best defense is good offense where you play a game of keep-away.  The Stars are getting very good at that game and when you have the puck very few things can go wrong behind you.  Still, this seems like a rather under-reported trend here that the Stars are down in the Hitchcock range of less than 25 shots against for 7 games on the trot.  Let's see them get to the break with this trend still intact.  

=====

One more quick issue that I wanted to visit about as I have been watching this team closely on this road trip which has offered 2 rewarding road games in Anaheim and Phoenix that were both critical contests in which they had to get points to have an encouraging Olympic break.  They sit in a spot that with a win tonight they could take over the 8th seed in the West and think about being a buyer again before the trade deadline on March 5th.  

The issue is recognizing the fine work of the last regime that has been largely considered a disaster by most fans and is now being cleaned up by Jim Nill and Lindy Ruff.  I know Joe Nieuwendyk will never be thought of as the best GM to ever walk in Dallas and overall, I certainly admit that the change from Nieuwendyk to Nill is an upgrade and has put wind in the sails.

But, it does seem to me that we are quick to overlook that Joe had his hands tied behind his back for almost his entire run with Tom Hicks on the way out, bankruptcy, having to run moves by the league office, and then the early tentative days of Tom Gagliardi.

Generally, when discussing Joe, the Goligoski trade is all anyone needs to offer to feel that his tenure was a failure, and I cannot spend too much time defending that trade.  It is impossible to defend at this point.  From there, the firing of Dave Tippett - which we assume was his decision, but since it was made on his first day in office I have always wondered how much that was handed to him - as well as the way Mike Modano was sent away, and the drafts of Scott Glennie and Jack Campbell are raised as easy spots to 2nd guess the wisdom of that leadership group.

I have always said the Modano move (not to re-sign him and allow him to finish in Detroit) was the right one and I don't believe in allowing icons to play as long as they want without any real checks and balances to keep it from appearing to be a country club.  The draft day moves were moves I did not agree with and wish they would have fixed their blue-lines right then and there with the many options that were available in both the 2009 and 2010 drafts.

But, it would be ridiculous to look at this young team with a bright future and not see Nieuwendyk's fingerprints all over it.  The Kari Lehtonen trade is very high on the list and likely his best move of his run.  But, signing Brenden Dillon has to be considered on that list, too.  What about the trade in the summer of 2012 to get Cody Eakin's next several years for just 1 season of Mike Ribeiro?  Kevin Connauton's career for 1 month of Derek Roy?  Heck, even finding Ryan Garbutt and Antoine Roussel for nothing.

Now, those aren't names that will rock the hockey world, but they are the kind of moves that somebody makes when they have no budget to make larger strikes.  And now you see that the futures of Eakin, Dillon, Connauton, Garbutt, Alex Chiasson, and Roussel are fine supplements for Seguin and Benn, with Lehtonen anchoring the whole thing.  Maybe Jamie Oleksiak, Campbell, and Radek Faksa will add to that group, or maybe, like Reilly Smith, they will be used to make another bold strike as he was used to get Seguin.

I know Nieuwendyk will be a fine General Manager somewhere else soon and I also know the Stars are in great hands with Jim Nill.  I just think it is crazy how I hear some people describe those 4 years by boiling it down to just the negative moves.  The cupboard was filled rather nicely considering they had almost no budget above the NHL floor.  Ask Nill how difficult that would make things for anyone.  It would require a 98% hit percentage, and that is not happening in any player personnel office.

Anyway, still plenty of work to be done, but I think the work really has been going on for a while and want to make sure Joe and his group gets a little recognition along the way.

NFL Franchise Rankings, Version 13.0

The 13th annual Sturm NFL Franchise Rankings are now finalized and prepared to turn over to you the eager public (right?).  All results are now final through Super Bowl 48, where the Seattle Seahawks have vaulted up the rankings with their first victorious Super Bowl effort.  Now, with the new results turned in, you can resume arguing with those around you about the relative merits of franchise A as it compares to franchise B.

It is fun for killing time at work, at dinner, or in the dorm rooms.

Who exactly can claim to be the best franchise in the modern era?  Is it the Cowboys?  The Steelers?  Or the 49ers?  And who is really better if a Bengals fan and Falcons fan square off?  How about a Jets fan and a Browns fan?  And who should be more outraged at their franchises incompetence over the last 48 years, the Cardinals or the Lions?

How did this project ever begin?

To recap, now thirteen years ago, a good listener of the radio show asked me to rank the franchises from #32 to #1 based on their accomplishments during the Super Bowl era.

So I did. I wanted it to be objective at all costs, not subjective. I wanted it to be a formula and you would just enter the numbers and it would spit out the rankings with no favoritism or prejudice. So, I have been doing this since every year since 2001, on the Tuesday of the week following the Super Bowl. Since then, it has been imitated a time or two , but I don’t mind. It is pretty obvious idea for any sports nerd with time on hand to come up with.

Here is how it works. Each Franchise gets 1 point for each season it makes the playoffs. Then, if it reaches the Conference Championship Game it gets a total of 3 points. If it makes the Super Bowl it gets 5, and if it wins the Super Bowl it wins the maximum total of points in a given year of 11. It used to be 10 for the Super Bowl, but I have adjusted it because I didn’t like the idea that 2 Super Bowl losses equaled a Super Bowl win. So, Now 11 points for a win and 5 for a loss in the Super Bowl.

I have been asked why no points are given for wins in the Wildcard round, but I decided that would not make sense with the idea that the playoffs have expanded over the years and there is no way to equalize a smaller field to a larger one. Also, a Wildcard win is not that big a deal anymore with 6 teams in the playoffs, so unless you reach the Conference Title game, no additional points beyond the 1 for making the post-season.

I also have been asked how come I don’t rank by average points per season (since many teams have joined the league since Super Bowl 1. My answer is simple: I don’t want to penalize teams who have been in the league all of the years. If you go by average points per year rather than total points, it is possible that the Baltimore Ravens would be #1 soon if they win another Super Bowl next year. And it is fair to note how great Baltimore has done compared to teams around them in the rankings. No chance I would believe that premise, given that they didn’t exist prior to 1996. But, if a team has been established since the season of Super Bowl 1 (1966), it is notated.

Just add up the points for all the years, and that is the entire formula. (By the way, if you disagree with the point totals for each accomplishment, you will find that just about any reasonable formula spits out about the same results.  Try me, pick your own point values.)

Otherwise, I break ties based on the team with more Super Bowl wins, then Super Bowl losses, then Championship Game wins, then playoff berths, and finally average points per year.

There are no ties. I will settle it somehow.

We have added "average pts per year" in the last 3 versions - so that we may determine results based on years in the league. 24 of the 32 teams have been here the entire span of the 47 years of Super Bowl football, but this metric will help put the other 8 teams: Saints '67, Bengals '68, Seahawks '76, Buccaneers '76, Jaguars '95, Panthers '95, Ravens '96, and Texans '02. Also, the Browns missed 96-98, so they only have 45 seasons to work with.

Here are the Final Rankings through Super Bowl 48:


Teams #1-#10
=========================================

#1 - Pittsburgh Steelers (Last year, #1) - 108 pts

In 2011, it finally happened. When Super Bowl 30 was completed, the Cowboys were at 101 and the Steelers were at 68 points. Well, since then, the Steelers have been the model of excellence for anyone not in New England, and the Cowboys have been, well, the Cowboys. Therefore, based on the tie breaking system, the Steelers took over as the current heavyweight leader in the Super Bowl era. The first time in years that the Cowboys have not held this post.  Nothing has changed since, because  both teams missed the playoffs in 2012 and 2013.  So, 108 continues to be the high water mark to date.

Total Points: 108
Total Playoff Years: 72C, 73, 74S, 75S, 76C, 77, 78S, 79S, 82, 83, 84C, 89, 92, 93, 94C, 95SL, 96, 97C, 01C, 02, 04C, 05S, 07, 08S, 10SL, 11

P: 26
4: 7
2: 2
1: 6

Average: 2.25 points per season

Pittsburgh holds the tiebreaker over Dallas because of Lombardi Trophies, 6-5.

#2 - Dallas Cowboys (Last Year, #2) - 108 pts

Dallas has the most playoff appearances, the most Final 4s, and are tied with Pittsburgh for the most Super Bowl appearances. However, since 1996, they have a performance level that actually trails the Jacksonville Jaguars and is certainly a team that is getting by on reputation and history. They are far removed from where they once stood, and yet, they still can claim to have as many or more points than any other franchise. They were a dominant, dominant franchise for 30 years.  So much so, that according to these numbers, the Cowboys had 101 points through the first 30 Super Bowls and just 7 points in the last 18.  That equates to 3.3 points per season for the first 30 years and 0.38 per year in the 18 years since.  Yikes.  These are indeed disappointing times round here.

Total Points: 108
Total Playoff Years: 66C, 67C, 68, 69, 70SL, 71S, 72C, 73C, 75SL, 76, 77S, 78SL, 79, 80C, 81C, 82C, 83, 85, 91, 92S, 93S, 94C, 95S, 96, 98, 99, 03, 06, 07, 09

P: 30
4: 8
2: 3
1: 5

Average: 2.25 points per season


#3 - San Francisco 49ers (#3) - 95 pts

The 49ers are back in form as a power in the NFL and have now run off 3 consecutive championship games and a Super Bowl loss since Jim Harbaugh took over.  They lost to Seattle this year and Baltimore last year who both won the Lombardi Trophy, so you can see how San Fran is a heavyweight yet again.  They still have not closed the deal on a Super Bowl with this group, and even if they did it would not have caught Dallas and Pittsburgh for the top pairing, but it would have put them a season away.  Nevertheless, they certainly solidify their spot further in the top 3 and look prepared to continue to do more winning moving forward.

Total Points: 95
Total Playoff Years: 70C, 71C, 72, 81S, 83C, 84S, 85, 86, 87, 88S, 89S, 90C, 92C, 93C, 94S, 95, 96, 97C, 98, 01, 02, 11C, 12SL, 13C

P: 23
4: 9
2: 1
1: 5

Average: 1.98 points per season


#4 - Oakland Raiders (#4) - 77 pts

Perhaps doubling as the long lost AFC brother of the Cowboys, they now, have missed the playoffs every season since their last Super Bowl in SB 37, 12 long years ago.  They still reside easily in the Top 5, but have been a dormant franchise themselves for a while now.  However, to be fair, looking at the rest of their history, they remain one of the strongest franchises of the Super Bowl era.

Total Points: 77
Total Playoff Years: 67SL, 68C, 69C, 70C, 72, 73C, 74C, 75C, 76S, 77C, 80S, 82, 83S, 84, 85, 90C, 91, 93, 00C, 01, 02SL

P: 21
4: 9
2: 2
1: 3

Average: 1.60 points per season

#5 - New England Patriots (#5) - 72 pts

The gold standard of this millennium, the Patriots show what a dominant decade can do to the overall view of your franchise.  Think about what an after thought this team was in the first year of this exercise with a measly 17 points.  Well, now they are secured in the Top 5 franchises of the Super Bowl era thanks to the fine work of turning out results on a regular basis in the Brady/Belichick era.  The Super Bowl victories have dried up since 2004, but not the deep January runs.

Total Points: 72
Total Playoff Years: 76, 78, 82, 85SL, 86, 94, 96SL, 97, 98, 01S, 03S, 04S, 05, 06C, 07SL, 09, 10, 11SL, 12C, 13C

P: 18
4: 3
2: 4
1: 3

Average: 1.5 points per season


#6 - Green Bay Packers (#5) - 68 pts

Last year, they were passed by as New England shot past them.  Since winning their Super Bowl, they have stalled against the Giants and the 49ers now twice.  Of course, their older fans will remind the crowd that their 13 Championships overall might dispute football history starting in 1966. Nevertheless, in the Super Bowl era, they had a substantial break between Bart Starr and Brett Favre where nothing got accomplished.

Total Points: 68
Total Playoff Years: 66S, 67S, 72, 82, 93, 94, 95C, 96S, 97SL, 98, 01, 02, 03, 04, 07C, 09, 10S, 11, 12, 13

P: 20
4: 2
2: 1
1: 4

Average: 1.42 points per season

# 7 - Denver Broncos (#8) - 64 pts

Peyton Manning had them dreaming of a higher finish in 2012 and in 2013, but despite the #1 seed in the AFC in both of his years they came up short in the end.  However, with the loss in Super Bowl 48, they have passed the New York Giants into 7th place all-time.  This all despite waiting 12 years without a playoff berth when the Super Bowl era began.

Total Points: 64
Total Playoff Years: 77SL, 78, 79, 83, 84, 86SL, 87SL, 89SL, 91C, 93, 96, 97S, 98S, 00, 03, 04, 05C, 11, 12, 13SL

P: 20
4: 2
2: 5
1: 2

Average: 1.33 points per season

#8 - New York Giants (#7) - 59 pts

The Giants, despite their rich history, are a team with a shocking few number of playoff years. Yet, when they do actually get in, they seem to do some pretty special things. 5 Super Bowls in just 14 playoffs years is outstanding.  However, since their Super Bowl win in 2011, they have sat out the last 2 years of the playoffs and have actually only attended the playoffs 1 time in the last 5 seasons.  And yet, in Giants fashion, won the whole thing that year.  Pretty neat trick.

Total Points: 59
Total Playoff Years: 81, 84, 85, 86S, 89, 90S, 93, 97, 00SL, 02, 05, 06, 07S, 08, 11S

P: 14
4: 0
2: 1
1: 4

Average: 1.23 points per season


#9 - Miami Dolphins (#9) - 58 pts

Nothing new to report in Miami.  Another proud franchise with a strong history, but they have certainly allowed that to be about all they have to fall back on this last decade. No consistent QB play and a carousel of coaches have put the Dolphins on the outside looking in since Dan Marino's prime. The drought continues for the Dolphins who have 1 playoff entry of any kind since we started doing this study in 2001.

Total Points: 58
Total Playoff Years: 70, 71SL, 72S, 73S, 74, 78, 79, 81, 82SL, 83, 84SL, 85C, 90, 92C, 94, 95, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 08

P: 22
4: 2
2: 3
1: 2

Average: 1.21 points per season

#10 - Washington Redskins (#10) - 57 pts

Last year at this time, we were wondering how many playoff seasons in a row they would attend with Robert Griffin's career starting to gain momentum.  Well, after a coach-firing disaster in 2013, they start anew with a fresh coaching staff for 2014.  They still reside in the Top 10, barely, but its been 20 years since the Redskins were a Super Bowl possibility.

Total Points: 57
Total Playoff Years: 71, 72SL, 73, 74, 76, 82S, 83SL, 84, 86C, 87S, 90, 91S, 92, 99, 05, 07, 12

P: 17
4: 1
2: 2
1: 3

Average: 1.18 points per season

TEAMS #11-#20
=======================================

#11 - Indianapolis/Baltimore Colts (#11) - 56 pts

Unlike the Dolphins after Dan Marino left town, it appears that the Colts simply started another era of excellence as they put themselves in a position to draft Andrew Luck #1 overall and then, Luck has helped them attend the playoffs in each of his first 2 years and has most people considering him the top QB in all of football under the age of 30 years old.  A playoff win this year

Total Points: 56
Total Playoff Years: 68SL, 70S, 71C, 75, 76, 77, 87, 95C, 96, 99, 00, 02, 03C, 04, 05, 06S, 07, 08, 09SL, 10, 12, 13

P: 22
4: 3
2: 2
1: 2

Average: 1.17 points per season

#12 - Minnesota Vikings (#12) - 53 pts

Every team above the Vikings on this list has not only won a Super Bowl, but they have won at least two Super Bowls. So, for the Vikings to be so close to those teams despite never winning one, surely speaks to their excellence for so many years. 27 playoff entries is more than anyone in the league aside from the Steelers or Cowboys. They just have never won a gold medal. Nor, as it turns out, have they ever had the lead in any of their 4 Super Bowls.  There is something impressive about the Vikings era of excellence and would certainly have a place at the table if they could ever close the deal even once.  That would put them in a totally different light.

Total Points: 53
Total Playoff Years: 68, 69SL, 70, 71, 73SL, 74SL, 75, 76SL, 77C, 78, 80, 82, 87C, 88, 89, 92, 93, 94, 96, 97, 98C, 99, 00C, 04, 08, 09C, 12

P: 27
4: 5
2: 4
1: 0

Average: 1.10 points per season


#13 - St Louis/Los Angeles Rams (#13) - 51 pts

The Rams, out of the playoffs now for almost a decade, are another team that has been pretty quiet during the last several seasons since the days of Kurt Warner and the greatest show on turf. But, in the 1970s, they had a run of 4 years out of 5 where their seasons ended in the NFC Championship game, usually, at the hands of the Cowboys.  But, now with a playoff drought since 2004, are reloading (thanks, Redskins) for another run with all of the draft picks they have gathered.  The Rams also close the distinction of teams who have at least 1 point a year for all 48 years.  The Top 13 can say this, and then there is a significant drop-off to the rest of the field that starts with Philadelphia.

Total Points: 51
Total Playoff Years: 67, 69, 73, 74C, 75C, 76C, 77, 78C, 79SL, 80, 83, 84, 85C, 86, 88, 89C, 99S, 00, 01SL, 03, 04

P: 21
4: 6
2: 2
1: 1

Average: 1.06 points per season


#14 - Philadelphia Eagles (#14) - 36 pts

The Eagles start the next tier of teams who have certainly not been close to averaging a point per season, but have been quite impressive over the course of this study.  The difference, of course, between them and the Patriots is several Lombardi Trophies and that is why most Eagles fans walk the earth with a fair amount of bitterness towards most football topics.  However, Chip Kelly is here and he put the team right into the playoffs in year #1.  One can imagine what his future will be when he gathers "his guys".

Total Points: 36
Total Playoff Years: 78, 79, 80SL, 81, 88, 89, 90, 92, 95, 96, 00, 01C, 02C, 03C, 04SL, 06, 08C, 09, 10, 13

P: 20
4: 4
2: 2
1: 0

Average: 0.75 points per season

#15 - Chicago Bears (#15) - 34 pts

Like Green Bay, the Bears would like to use championships that preceded the Super Bowl era, but in the 48 years of the modern era, the Bears have not been able to string together any prolonged success. In fact, with the exception of those great teams in the 1980's, it has often been a series of good seasons that are not followed with any manner of success in the next year. Like 2010's NFC Championship Game followed by 2011-13 in which they missed the playoffs altogether.  However, they are hopeful with Marc Trestman that there is hope for the future.

Total Points: 34
Total Playoff Years: 77, 79, 84C, 85S, 86, 87, 88C, 90, 91, 94, 01, 05, 06SL, 10C

P: 13
4: 3
2: 1
1: 1

Average: 0.72 points per season

Chicago holds the tiebreaker over Buffalo because of Lombardi Trophies, 1-0.

#16 - Buffalo Bills (#16) - 34 pts

Perhaps demonstrating the value of a single Super Bowl victory, we find the Buffalo Bills tied with the Chicago Bears.  The Bears closed the deal once and are always considered superior to Buffalo, but as you see in our points system, they have both accumulated the same total.  The Bills obviously had their crack at NFL immortality during their 4 year stretch of the 1990s when they ran into NFC East buzz-saws. Since then, they have not sniffed much of anything, with their last moments in the playoffs still being the "Music City Miracle" in Nashville. That was a long, long time ago.  It has now been 14 years since they made the playoffs - the longest drought in the NFL by a very healthy margin.

Total Points: 34
Total Playoff Years: 66C, 74, 80, 81, 88C, 89, 90SL, 91SL, 92SL, 93SL, 95, 96, 98, 99

P: 14
4: 2
2: 4
1: 0

Average: 0.72 points per season


#17 – Baltimore Ravens (#22)

Established 1996 - (The NFL ruled that all old records stay in Cleveland with the Browns.)

The big mover over the last 5 years has been Baltimore.  They have absolutely been dominant in the last 6 years with 3 seasons in the Final 4 and a Lombardi Trophy to boot.  They jumped from #22 to #17 in 2012 and in 18 years have beaten teams who have been around from Super Bowl 1.  2 Super Bowl titles has them puffing out their chests, but they missed the playoffs in 2013 and remain at #17 in a bit of a repositioning season.  On a points-per-season basis, only Pittsburgh, Dallas, and San Francisco can boast better results.

Total Points: 33
Total Playoff Years: 00S, 01, 03, 06, 08C, 09, 10, 11C, 12S

P: 7
4: 2
2: 0
1: 2

Average: 1.83 in 18 years of existence

#18 - Kansas City Chiefs (#19) - 32 pts

The Chiefs played in 2 of the first 4 Super Bowls, winning Super Bowl 4. However, since 1970, the Chiefs have only been to one AFC Championship Game in 1993. Other than that, it has been a series of one-and-outs and plenty of years with no playoffs whatsoever.  But, in 2013, the Chiefs had a great season in year #1 of Andy Reid, and have passed the New York Jets in the process.  I am sure that pleases all involved.

Total Points: 32
Total Playoff Years: 66SL, 68, 69S, 71, 86, 90, 91, 92, 93C, 94, 95, 97, 03, 06, 10, 13

P: 16
4: 1
2: 1
1: 1

Average: 0.66 points per season

The Chiefs win the tie-breaker with the Jets by virtue of having been to more Super Bowls, 2-1.

#19 - New York Jets (#18) - 32 pts

The Jets are certainly a Sportscenter darling most of the time, despite never really being a NFL power.  There is just something enjoyable about covering their stories, evidently.  However, the sum total of their accomplishments still traces back 45 years to that one day in Miami.  After two AFC Championship Games in a row, the Jets have been unable to join the postseason in the last 3. Despite that, Rex Ryan has been able to accomplish more in his 5 seasons than the 40 years prior to that going back to Namath's Super Bowl 3.

Total Points: 32
Total Playoff Years: 68S, 69, 81, 82C, 85, 86, 91, 98C, 01, 02, 04, 06, 09C, 10C

P: 13
4: 4
2: 0
1: 1

Average: 0.66 points per season

#20 - Tennessee Titans/Houston Oilers (#20) - 30 pts

The Titans have held steady since the days of Vince Young back in the drama of 2007-2008.  However, with some reasonable years of success in Houston and one Super Bowl loss in Nashville, the Oilers remain in the Top 20 for now.  Barely.  Not much of interest to report here these days, but they continue to tinker and have changed out coaches again, so stay tuned.

Total Points: 30
Total Playoff Years: 67C, 69, 78C, 79C, 80, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 99SL, 00, 02C, 03, 07, 08

P: 18
4: 4
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.64 points per season

Teams 21-30
==================================

#21 - Seattle Seahawks (#27) - 29 points

Established 1976

Make room for the big mover and shaker in 2013!  After a fantastic 2012, the Seahawks backed it up with the Super Bowl championship in 2013.  Seattle has worked its way to the playoffs 8 times in the last 11. The Seahawks have built a young, physical squad and look ready to keep building and accumulating points, and now sit poised to brag about being one of the top teams of the expansion era and beyond.  They leaped up 6 spots with that win on Sunday and passed their other 1976 expansion team (Tampa Bay) in the process.

Total Points: 29
Total Playoff Years: 83C, 84, 87, 88, 99, 03, 04, 05SL, 06, 07, 10, 12, 13S

P: 13
4: 1
2: 1
1: 1

Average: 0.76 points in 38 seasons of existence.



#22 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#21) - 24 pts

Established 1976

Surely, at this point, the Buccaneers realize that being in a hurry to chase Jon Gruden out of there was mistaken, right? Regardless, a team that hit its prime in the late 90s and rode it to a Super Bowl Championship in 2002, has returned to its place among the also-rans in the NFC. They now have a 6 year streak going with no playoffs and will attempt to get that turned around with a new coaching staff yet again.

Total Points: 24
Total Playoff Years: 79C, 81, 82, 97, 99C, 00, 01, 02S, 05, 07

P: 10
4: 2
2: 0
1: 1

Average: 0.63 - 38 seasons

Tampa Bay holds the tiebreaker over Cleveland because of Lombardi Trophies, 1-0.


#23 - Cleveland Browns (#22) - 24 pts

No season 1996-1998

The post-relocation Cleveland Browns has been absolutely pathetic. One playoff appearance in the 14 seasons since being a new expansion team and really no real signs of having turned the direction of the franchise around. But, let's not act like they were winning a ton before they lost the Browns to Baltimore. They severely need a revival amongst their franchise to give those loyal fans something to smile about in Cleveland.  Mike Pettine, anyone?

Total Points: 24
Total Playoff Years: 67, 68C, 69C, 71, 72, 80, 82, 85, 86C, 87C, 88, 89C, 94, 02

P: 14
4: 5
2: 0
1: 0

Average: 0.53 in 45 seasons

#24 - San Diego Chargers (#23)

The Chargers returned to the playoffs in 2013 and even scored a win at Cincinnati.  Certainly, more was expected from this franchise given their level of QB play they have had for almost 3 decades. But, to this point, they have flirted with some real good teams and even made one Super Bowl, but San Diego still chases its one dream season that may or may not await them down the road.

Total Points: 23
Total Playoff Years: 79, 80C, 81C, 82, 92, 94SL, 95, 04, 06, 07C, 08, 09, 13

P: 13
4: 3
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.48

#25 – New Orleans Saints (#24) - 22 pts

Established 1967

A shocking omission to the playoffs in 2012, thanks to Bounty Gate, but they returned in 2013 and beat the Eagles on the road before being devoured in Seattle.  The Saints are living their glory days right now in the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era, and have won a Super Bowl and flirted with others in the last several years. This once pathetic franchise has raised its accomplishment level several notches and has worked its way out of the basement of franchises in the NFL in quick fashion.

Total Points: 22
Total Playoff Years: 87, 90, 91, 92, 00, 06C, 09S, 10, 11, 13

P: 9
4: 1
2: 0
1: 1

Average: 0.47 in 47 seasons

#26 - Cincinnati Bengals (#27) - 20 pts

Established 1968

The Bengals have 2 different Super Bowl losses to great San Francisco teams in the 1980s. Beyond that, they have never been able to put together consecutive seasons of playoff football until they just did it in 2011-13 with a young group of players including Andy Dalton. Time will tell as Mike Brown running the franchise still has many thinking that long-term success will not happen with him at the helm, but they have actually built a nice foundation.

Total Points: 20
Total Playoff Years: 70, 73, 75, 81SL, 82, 88SL, 90, 05, 09, 11, 12, 13

P: 12
4: 0
2: 2
1: 0

Average: 0.43 - 46 seasons

The Bengals hold the tie-breaker for 26th place over the Falcons by virtue of Super Bowl appearances, 2-1.


#27 – Atlanta Falcons (#26) - 20 pts

We assume that 2013 was a simple blip on the radar of the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan year where everything went wrong and everyone got hurt.  However, after making the playoffs 3 years in a row and cracking the final 4 for the first time in a while in 2012, the Falcons were humbled and play in a very good division moving forward.  They remain at 20 points and actually were passed by the Bengals on a tie breaker down to 27th place.

Total Points: 20
Total Playoff Years: 78, 80, 82, 91, 95, 98SL, 02, 04C, 08, 10, 11, 12C

P: 11
4: 2
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.43


#28 - Carolina Panthers (#28) - 13 pts

Established 1995

Was 2013 the first year of many playoff runs with Cam Newton and Ron Rivera?  The Panthers play the brand of football that has rewarded the 49ers and Seahawks, so I am not betting too hard against them.  They were so close to winning Super Bowl 38, yet the Panthers have only made the playoffs 5 times, but the Final 4 in 3 of those 5 runs. They don't get there often, but when they do, they make it count.

Total Points: 13
Total Playoff Years: 96C, 03SL, 05C, 08, 13

P: 5
4: 2
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.68 - 19 seasons

#29 - Detroit Lions (#29) - 12 pts

As we approach the bottom of our list, we always shake our heads at the Detroit Lions as a team that has seemed to always find the worst possible scenario on their seasons.  If you believe that winning is cyclical, you might argue that the Detroit Lions are on a 60 year cycle.  They appeared to be ready to win for years when they made the playoffs in 2011, but went back to their underachieving ways in 2012 and 2013.

Total Points: 12
Total Playoff Years: 70, 82, 83, 91C, 93, 94, 95, 97, 99, 11

P: 10
4: 1
2: 0
1: 0

Average: 0.25

#30 – Arizona/St Louis Cardinals (#30) - 10 pts

The Cardinals, formerly of St Louis, have not had a very good run of things either (although they do look up at Detroit, amazingly).  They have also built a team that many are bullish on moving forward, but forgive the overall cynicism on anything Cardinals football.  To be ranked 30th and only above two expansion franchises speaks to the futility of this team that has had many horrid seasons in its long history.

Total Points: 10
Total Playoff Years: 74, 75, 82, 98, 08SL, 09

P: 6
4: 0
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.21

Arizona holds tie-breaker over Jacksonville due to Super Bowl appearances, 1-0.

#31 – Jacksonville Jaguars (#31) - 10 pts

Established 1995

Jacksonville certainly showed their fans how easy football was when they took off from expansion and went to the playoffs in 4 of their first 5 years with Tom Coughlin and Mark Brunell getting the Jaguars to two AFC Championship Games. Since then, not much of anything has happened for them and the stadium has a real difficult time finding capacity crowds.

Total Points: 10
Total Playoff Years: 96C, 97, 98, 99C, 05, 07

P: 6
4: 2
2: 0
1: 0

Average: 0.53 per season - 19 seasons

#32 – Houston Texans (32) - 2 pts

Established 2002

The Texans seemed to be on a run of power in the 2011 and 2012 playoffs, but now with the #1 pick in the draft certainly returned to its customary ways with a horrendous 2013.  That said, they are a team with many talented parts in place and most would be wise to expect a competitive 2014 after being humbled again.  It will take a Super Bowl to get them out of 32nd next year, but they at least have something to work with.  We shall see.

Total Points: 2
Total Playoff Years: 11, 12

P: 2
4: 0
2: 0
1: 0

Average: 0.16 - 12 seasons

Explanation of Years:
Just the year means they made the playoffs (1 point). Year followed by “C” means they lost in the Conference Championship Game (3 points), Year followed by “SL” means they lost the Super Bowl (5 points), and Year followed by “S” means they won the Super Bowl (11 points).

Version 12.0

Version 11.0

Version 10.0

Version 9.0

Version 8.0

Version 7.0 …

Version 6.0 …

The Morning After: Super Bowl 48 - Seattle 43, Denver 8

As odd as it is to type that the Seattle Seahawks have won the Super Bowl and are therefore the World Champions of Football, we better start getting used to it.  For they won a Super Bowl as thoroughly as any team ever has, both with regards to the perceived level of strength of their opponent and with a lead that lasted for 99.6% of the entire game.  Think about that for a second; there are 3,600 ticks on the NFL game clock, and Seattle led Super Bowl 48 for 3,588 of them after taking the lead just 12 seconds in.

That was a smashing of the highest order as this Seattle team, that was made over in just a very short time into a relentless machine, proved to everyone else that it can be done.  It can be done without a once-in-a-generation QB talent, and it can be done without an insane amount of cash being thrown around, and it can be done in a tough division, and it can be done with a coach who isn't believed to be one of the best in the industry until he wins it all.

Seattle's effort in Super Bowl 48 was one that will certainly have many organizations looking in the mirror, and with the same way that Russell Wilson's dad would ask him, "why not you?", and the same way that Russell Wilson would ask his locker-room, "why not us?", will be the same way that each Cleveland, Minnesota, and Jacksonville will be looking at the draft and pondering similar questions.

They just spent a month showing us that the quest to make a place in NFL history only requires what we all knew all along:  that football is the ultimate team game and therefore your quality and yes, your place in football immortality is going to be judged by assembling a team that cannot be taken down by one player or a roster with a few special talents.  1-53 is what this sport rewards.  And the team with the best QB matters, but not like we have been led to believe.  Because since Super Bowl 42 when Tom Brady lost to the Giants, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have gone a combined 0-4 (42, 44, 46, and 48) in their Super Bowl appearances, after starting the careers a combined 4-0.

That doesn't mean that those 2 QBs won't find their way into the front of every history book about this fantastic sport, but it does mean that we again spend too much time talking about QBs when we should be looking carefully at every spot on every roster - especially those that can be found far easier than winning the lottery and falling into a Brady.

Seattle showed us again last night that they don't have many things that make them an easy pick.  A QB that dazzles you with his ability to push a team down the field like the best at his position.  A top #1 receiver that makes you think that you simply cannot do anything to cover their weapons.  Even a 20-sack guy who must be double-teamed on every down lest you feel his wrath.  In other words, they don't win because they have Drew Brees at QB, Calvin Johnson at WR, or DeMarcus Ware as their sack master.  They simply have a team with many great parts, but those parts seldom work their way to marquees, except when they demonstrate a personality trait that may not play well everywhere.  Otherwise, they are a 53 man wolf pack that seems to be generally cut from the same cloth of physical, demolishing football.

In many ways, it should resemble what Baltimore did last year to win Super Bowl 47.  Balance on both units, solid groups on either side of the ball, and a unified philosophy that can be felt by observers that they consider the whole to be much greater than the sum of its parts.  See, that is football.  In the NBA, we will talk about a team having LeBron, Kobe, or Jordan so the opponent can usually just regret not having that great fortune.  But, this isn't that.  This is team building at its greatest level where you can assemble something special right under the noses of the entire league and within 18 months, you could be crowned king.  It shows us once again that the most important positions in the game of football might be the guys who never play - General Manager and Head Coach (Which is likely not what a Dallas loyalist wants to read this morning).

The game was a not an easy game to watch as Seattle destroyed everything the Denver offense was trying to accomplish.  Given that Denver led the league in nearly every offensive category for the season and were being discussed in wide circles as maybe the greatest offense ever assembled - and a team that in its last game put on an offensive clinic against New England that should not be forgotten, what Seattle did is no small task.  But, from the first snap of the game until the confetti fell, this is about as powerless and pitiful as Denver has ever looked.  Check out the results of their drive chart from the NFL game book:

Safety - 3 and Out Punt - Interception - Interception - Turnover on Downs - Halftime.
Punt - Fumble - Touchdown - Turnover on Downs - Fumble - End of Game.

That is 11 drives with just 1 favorable outcome, which is the kind of form we have not seen since the Buffalo Bills were in the Super Bowl against a young, dominant roster in Dallas 21 years ago.  That was also 11 drives in which 6 had 1 or fewer first downs and to consider that performance on that stage from an offense that demonstrated almost no weaknesses shows why I should stop trying to predict Super Bowls.  I knew Seattle was a great defense, but this was Denver.  Denver!  With Manning and an offensive line that doesn't give up pressure and a QB who makes pre snap reads that will make you cry and a receiver group that has unstoppable pieces at 4 different spots.  Denver!

The Seahawks enjoyed a home crowd advantage so far from home where the TV cannot hear Manning's voice over the roar.  They generated Manning pressure that resulted in feet that looked uncomfortable, throws that looked awkward, and even the arm getting banged as he tried to throw by Cliff Avril on a crucial moment that turned the game further on its ear.

They accomplished their defensive goals the old fashioned way, by getting pressure.  Manning doesn't get hurt by pressure because he gets rid of the ball so fast?  Well, push the defenders up and take the chance that the Broncos won't get behind you and beat you deep.  Put pressure in the receivers faces, cheat them off their pick plays, and suddenly Manning has to re-cock his gun under pressure and is actually getting uncomfortable under pressure.  Clearly, many teams would love to make this happen, but Seattle - perhaps because they aren't paying a QB or a pass rusher $20m a season, they have deep groups of pass rushers who can generate relentless pressure as Avril throws Orlando Franklin back into his QB.

Clearly, these Seahawks will want to get paid, too, and when you start compensating Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, and others what their peers make elsewhere, they will feel the crush of the cap like everyone else does.  But, for now, they enjoy so many players on their rookie deals and can therefore grab veteran free agents Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril last offseason on tiny deals despite not having real needs at either spot. They also can make a play for Percy Harvin and then not use him most of the year due to injury.  But, throw a couple jet sweeps his way and cap it off with a kickoff return kill shot to start the 2nd half, and there is another speedy playmaker on a team that doesn't seem short of speedy playmakers.

Speaking of Wilson and Harvin, the Seahawks offense will always get 2nd billing to that absurdly awesome defense in Seattle, but what a job they did on 3rd Downs.  They set up 3rd Down situations by running the ball and eating field position and time of possession with their ground and pound which allows for play-action at the moments where too many defenders cheat up to deal with Marshawn Lynch.  That works wonderfully well for much of the game, but on 3rd Down, the leverage is shifted to Wilson and his ability to convert 3rd Downs with his arm and his legs, and again in this Super Bowl, like the NFC Championship Game against San Francisco, he is very dangerous in these spots and his skill set almost seems tailor-made for 3rd Down chaos.  With Harvin at his disposal, you wonder how much more dangerous their offense would have been all season, but know this: you won't find another QB like Wilson who throws so seldom, but when he does his yards per attempt are so high (8.1 YPA).  Since 2000, the list of QBs who has over 8 yards per attempt for their career?  Well, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson.  And since Rodgers completes about 23 passes per game, you can see that Wilson is his own guy.  Not even at 16 completions a game, but those 15.9 are not 3-yard dump offs.  Those are big throws that have big effects.

Talking about the game itself is almost missing the point of this game.  It was never close and the weather played no part in the contest.  The noise was a factor, which might have been the biggest surprise of the Super Bowl, and that crazy snap on the 1st play set the tone for a Broncos team that seemed to pick up where the team left off back in the Orange jersey days of Super Bowl nightmares gone by.  Errant passes and fumbles after big plays and horrendous moments during a special teams return and lots of shellshocked looks from Peyton Manning himself.  How does this affect his legacy?  Great question, because this isn't a case where his defense let him down.  Manning and the offense caused almost all of the Seattle good fortune in the 1st half and you could even make the case that the score was kind to Denver who looked like they knew their fate was sealed when Malcolm Smith returned his interception for a Touchdown after Avril got Manning's arm.  Manning will be fine and his legacy is secure, but he sure didn't end this like John Elway did when he walked off the stage with the last word in his career.  This seemed to encourage a dog pile if this is the last we see of Peyton in the Super Bowl.

It was not a good game by any measure, but it was an amazing playoff run by the NFC's #1 seed who only now will get its credit and just rewards.  Evidently, it was the first 43-8 score in football history, and it was only the 4th time in the history of the Super Bowl where a team won the score of every single quarter of the game (1983 Raiders, 1989 49ers, and 2000 Ravens) also accomplished the feat.

Now, with 213 days until the next NFL game that counts, we ponder what we have seen and realize that the Seahawks are now the teachers for how to win in the modern NFL.  Draft and acquire from every avenue.  Resist the high ticket items and build a solid team that can withstand injury, play a given style, but be able to adjust to beat you in a number of ways.  In many respects, it is what this game is all about.

And to the 31 other teams that will not be attending parades this week?  Your season starts today.

Get that film and get going, because Seattle has a nice head start on the rest of you.