Decoding Linehan: Week 1 - San Francisco

Welcome to another season of our in-depth blog breakdowns of the Dallas Cowboys.  On Tuesdays (or so), we lift the hood on the Scott Linehan-Jason Garrett-Tony Romo-Wade Wilson-Bill Callahan offense, and then on Wednesday (or so), the defense of Rod Marinelli-Monte Kiffin will get a similar treatment.

Our effort is to dig a little deeper and try to analyze what we think they are trying to accomplish each week, how well that objective went, and what we can learn from that moving forward.  As I have said a million times, this is not intended for the beginner, but we also try to keep it simple enough that the beginner can figure it out if he finds it interesting enough.

If not, carry on to another place as there are many more traditional ways to follow the Cowboys.  But, if you think this might be for you, you might want to read the first post of this series that ran last week and will serve as a bit of a tour guide for this entire project.  You can read that here and I think it might really help you as you attempt to break down personnel groupings and other terms that are quire common here, but uncommon around your water cooler (most likely).

Week 1 - 49ers

Now, on to the 49ers game.  First, just know that all of this effort and research can be helpful most weeks, and then others - in which they go Fumble-Field Goal-Interception-Interception-Interception in the first half - all of the raw numbers don't really illuminate much.

Below is a list of the 11 times the Cowboys have turned the ball over 4 times or more since Jason Garrett and Tony Romo joined forces back in 2007 - thanks to the ProFootballReference Game Finder:

As you can see, aside from that miracle in Buffalo - against a very bad Bills side - you don't turn the ball over 4 times and win. You simply cannot pull that off against a good team, especially one that is good enough to be favored at your place (at least it was technically your place, until they bought all the tickets).

The 49ers game showed some interesting things from this offense. 15 carries for 87 yards from under center for this new running game should have us pretty fired up about the possibility of lining it up and running it at a stout front like San Francisco and how that might apply moving forward. I didn't see much chaos in those zone stretch plays and very few negative plays in general from the running game. They, of course, get the fumble returned for the TD on their ledger, but overall, the running game at 5.8 a clip under center and 5.47 overall is strong to quite strong.

The pass protection was passable. Tyron was not very good, but overall, that is a difficult team to deal with (albeit without key members of their front 7) and the Cowboys survived pretty well, despite the 3 San Francisco sacks. The Niners were content to sit back and rush 4 or less on 98% of the Cowboys pass plays, given that they were up by 4 scores for most of the afternoon. There will be more difficult days for pass protection down the road, but that OL look organized and capable for what we saw. Of course, the games conditions require us to place quite a bit of context on all of our conclusions.

The team was beaten because their QB was massively outplayed. This won't happen often with Tony Romo, but on Sunday, he imploded about as badly as we can recall. The mental busts were uncharacteristic and one must hope that it was a rusty Romo and that is all. As we spoke about at length on Monday, if it is a trend then the Cowboys will be doomed for years of cap jail. They have put many, many eggs in his basket and he has 95 of the 96 games left on his contract extension. We have to assume this is an aberration and not panic at this juncture.

Now, the game turned on a sack. This sack was a result of mass confusion. But, it also is something we have studied for a long time around here.

Let's go back to the 2010 season when the Cowboys played in Houston. This is the first time I can remember a real discussion about these Run/Pass QB options that the Cowboys and the entire league runs being a topic of conversation. I recommend you review the entire post from that week, but if you simply watch and listen to this video, you can kind of get the picture of what is going on:



So, as Kubiak breaks down, Romo and the WR are the only guys who know it is not a run play. That is the basis for "giving Romo more control of the offense". When we were kids, the QB called the plays at the line quite a bit. They would call their own plays and that was a pretty cool thing to hear about and it made you think that they were coaches on the field. Then, in the 1990s, they weren't calling their own plays because things had become too advanced - we were told. So, now the offensive coordinators would call a play and the QB would obey most of the time.

Now, this advance that is common place is all over the league and for sure this particular playbook. If you are looking for it, you see it several times a game - the packaged play where it has many variations in a decision tree type format for the QB. The team knows they are running a particular play, but they are simply carrying out their task and are not to worry about what the QB decides on his way up the decision tree.

The play above shows how it works beautifully. Romo catches the safety sneaking up to stop the run so he finds Roy Williams in space and the touchdown makes everyone celebrate this innovation.

However, it comes with terrible consequences some times when the QB thinks he sees something and you wonder why you ever gave the QB the chance to impact a game with a sudden rush of blood to the head.

You could easily make the case that the play below cost the Cowboys the season. And, it is the same decision tree where this is a called run where Romo checks into the backside pass to Miles Austin and leaves Clay Matthews to either fall for the run fake or be unaccounted for on the pass rush. This might remind you of Justin Smith on Sunday - because it is identical in many ways - zone stretch right with backside throw to the left. If you have time, you can read all about that fateful day. It is a real amazing scenario from Week 14 of last year.




So, the QB takes a run play and turns it into a pass which he has the power to do. In the case above against Green Bay and the case below on Sunday, the run game was having great success and gaining confidence. Of course, the play above was late in the 4th Quarter and the one below was very early in this contest.

2nd and 1 from the 2 yard line and the 49ers are already up 7-0. The Cowboys broke the huddle in 23 personnel (2 RB, 3 TE) and they were going to ram it in or at least get the 1st down. But, the play clock went down and they called timeout.

During the timeout, they decided to go Shotgun 11 (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) and spread out the Niners. That is not a bad plan because it might make the running opportunity easier. But still the call was the zone run right with Murray and a lighter defense because of the Cowboys putting Beasley, Williams, and Bryant back out there.

Another frustrating element of this is the play clock is down again. The play clock is the one consistent enemy of this offense and it appears to not matter who is coordinating. They are never in their stance with :12 left. It is always :05 or less it seems. That doesn't help and there is no excuse coming out of a timeout.

Anyway, clearly Romo wants the Dez back shoulder fade on the left, but he has to see the corner pressing and the safety lingering. Dez is doubled. Meanwhile, you can see the 49ers not sure how to line up on the other side and the safety is trying to move the LB off of Beasley as this is all happening.

Now, Romo doesn't give the ball to DeMarco and Tyron blocks down to the right (check Tyron's movement above in the Green Bay game). Tyron is going to get blamed for Justin Smith running free to Romo, but that is what the play calls for. Romo knows this. Tyron is supposed to - on both plays - dive right to cut off his inside gap and to keep anyone from breaking into the zone block right. If Justin Smith is going to get DeMarco, he needs to go outside Tyron and chase down Murray from behind. That is unlikely. But, if Romo keeps, Smith is not accounted for so the ball has to get out quickly. Once Romo hesitates, the play is dead. And look at DeMarco and how annoyed he appears to be after the play.

The Cowboys end up settling for 3 instead of a physically dominating 7 and the afternoon was never the same. It was a day of repeated Romo poor decisions, but this is the one that bothered me the most. Yes, I want Dez to get chances in the red zone - many, many. But on this one, he has to see they are sitting on it and to give this OL a chance to prove that they can help DeMarco get a yard or two.

QB power in the offense is a very wonderful tool, as long as the QB sees everything properly. If he sees it wrong, games are lost. In this case, I am sure he would agree that this is not the type of mental busts that the team should have to overcome.

Offensive Participation: All hands on deck for the offense. OL played all 73 snaps together, Smith-Leary-Frederick-Martin-Free. Romo - Murray - Bryant - Williams. Reserve snaps: Beasley 47, Street 20, Hanna 15, Escobar 10, Harris 9, Dunbar 4, Parnell 4, Clutts 1. - Courtesy Pro Football Focus Participation Charts.

1 snap for your Fullback. 10 for your 2nd round tight end. 4 for your secret weapon Lance Dunbar. We shall hold off on any snap judgements for several weeks, but that is not the type of work load we had in mind for any of the above.

STATS FOR WEEK 1 AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO

Run Plays	23
Pass Plays	40
Avg Starting Position	D18
1st Down R-P	15-17
2nd Down Avg to Go	6.3
2nd Down R-P	6-15
3rd Down Avg to Go	5.4
3rd/4th Down R-P	1-9
3rd Down Conversions	5-9, 56%
4th Down Conversions	1-1, 100%
Yards Per Play	6.1
Yards Per Pass Attempt	7.6
Red Zone TDs - Drives	2-4, 50%

PASSING CHART

Last season, intern Tim created (outstanding) passing charts in order to display release points from the pocket. This season, we're attempting to track both passing and drive progression. For instance, if you were to start at the first yellow line (D27) and work your way up, you would be tracking that possession from beginning to end. The dotted-lines are incompletions (and noted if separate events occurred). Large gaps between throws are mostly YAC or carries.

 

DRIVE STARTERS - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Wk 1 - San Francisco: 5 Run/5 Pass - 50% Run

2013 Totals: 176 Drives - 84 Run/92 Pass - 47% Run
2012 Total: 173 Drives - 76 Run/97 Pass - 44% Run
2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass - 44% Run

* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives.

SHOTGUN SNAPS

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated.

Wk 1 - San Francisco: 41 Shotgun/63 Total Plays - 65% 

2013 Total - 566/945  59.8%
2012 Total - 565/1038 54%
2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%

TOTALS BY PERSONNEL GROUPS


(Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.)

Package	Plays	Yds	Run	Pass	3rd/4th	Yds	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	5	20	4-20	1-0	1	0	0-0	1-0	0/0
12	13	81	10-63	3-18	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	3	9	1-4	2-5	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	1	1	1-1	0-0	1	1	1-1	0-0	1/0
S01	4	15	0-0	4-15	2	19	0-0	2-19	2/0
S02	2	18	1-9	1-9	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S11	33	228	6-29	27-199	5	66	1-2	4-64	2/1
S12	1	0	0-0	1-0	1	0	0-0	1-0	0/0
S13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Other	1	9	0-0	1-9	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	63	381	23-126	40-255	10	86	2-3	8-83	5/1

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.

Plenty of things to like above as they really found production in yardage in most spots.  Run from under center were particularly promising and the work on 3rd Down was pretty solid.

PLAY-ACTION PERFORMANCE

Wk 1: 1/5, 9 Yds, 3 INT, 1 FD

We wanted more play-action in the Cowboys offense.  I refuse to back off that claim because it is a tool that needs to be used.  But, wow.  That was certainly not the start of the Linehan will employ more play action when he throws 5 passes and 3 are picked off from the run fake pass.

BLITZING ROMO

Pass Rushers Against Dallas - 40 Pass Situations vs San Francisco

Wk 1: SF Blitzed Dallas 1/40 - 2.5%

2013 - Season Blitz rate against Dallas offense 210/616: 34%

SEASON TO DATE

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush	Totals
1st Down	3 - 17%	14 - 82%	0	0	17 - 42.5%
2nd Down	2 - 13.3%	12 - 80%	1 - 6.6%	0	15 - 37.5%
3rd Down	1 - 12.5%	7 - 87.5%	0	0	8 - 20%
4th Down	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	6 - 15%	33 - 82.5%	1 - 2.5%	0	40

Thanks to John Daigle for his work on the charts and graphs.

SUMMARY:  It is next to impossible to classify this game without making all of the commentary about the 4 devastating giveaways.  The QB played brain dead most of the day and the game was a glorified preseason game for most of the afternoon.

Linehan wanted to run a balanced under-center offense with run to set up the play-action game that was going to be predicated on being able to stand up to the 49ers powerful front.  Those missions were accomplished pretty well and there were some wrinkles that were new, with deployment of Dunbar being noted, as well as Dwayne Harris being motioned over to running back.

We need to temper our conclusions in these early weeks, in hopes that the franchise QB returns, the level of competition equalizes a bit, and everyone finds their roles.  But, aside from the blowup at QB, there was a lot to like from the offense.

Which, of course, is like asking Mrs Lincoln how she liked the play.

On to next week.  

The Morning After: 49ers 28, Cowboys 17 (0-1)

3:27pm

If you had 3:27pm in the pool for the time of the first enemy missile hitting the good ship Cowboys, you are a winner.  For that was the time that DeMarco Murray was stripped of the ball by 49ers linebacker Dan Skuta, followed by Chris Culliver running it back into the end zone to give the visitors a lead they would not come close to relinquishing the rest of the day.

54 seconds of game time and roughly 2-3 minutes of real time had expired in a new season before bad things happened in 2014.

The anticipation of a new NFL season builds gradually to a frenzied climax the weekend of Week 1 each season for most of us who are addicted to this fantastic sport.  Unfortunately, when toe meets leather at 3:25pm the Sunday of Week 1, the dread of reality comes rushing back for many and the rest of the season begins to feel like a row of ominous storm clouds.

The wise amongst us would remind us that this is merely 1 game and that the journey has just begun. Regardless of how you feel about this team heading into 2014 (and I don't feel very good about them), it should be noted that no league is more difficult to forecast than the modern day NFL.  Upsets and unlikely events happen all of the time in this league, and every team should be allowed to demonstrate whether they are up for shocking the experts.  But, um, that wasn't the start Dallas was looking for.

Despite the Murray fumble, the biggest reason for the patches of panic that are developing around the area surely are linked to the performance of the man who is the highest compensated in a Cowboys' uniform, Tony Romo.  Romo, for those who are predicting a fine year, is the single biggest reason for hope.  The idea is that any team with Romo at the helm will have a chance to win most weeks, which demonstrates the value of having a franchise QB.

But, 2014 has felt different for a number of reasons when it comes to the man under center.  His future is very much in question to the cynical eye, based on health, age, practice attendance, and a 2013 which was statistically flattering, but contained many moments that gave pause to those who wonder if he will be able to perform to the levels of his new contract that pays him from 2014-2019.  In other words, that $108 million dollar deal is now 1 game old and 95 to go (optimistically).

There is a theory when it comes to Romo that exists amongst those of us that attempt to properly avoid the noise regarding his career and just look at the cold, hard facts.  If you try to ignore the photoshops, memes, message boards, stand-up comedians, and other places where Romo has been made into a human piñata, but also ignore the puff pieces, adoring fans, and personal protectors of him from a positive side, you can try to figure out where his legacy really stands.  That, of course, is a very difficult thing to do.  Because everyone has an opinion about Tony Romo.  Everyone.

Anyway, the theory is as follows:  His bad moments - fewer than most people would ever admit - happen on the highest-rated stages where it seems the entire world is watching this game, while many of his best moments have happened on regionally-split, small audience games that might be noon starts with fragmented parts of the football world tuned in.

Is it a coincidence?  Nobody knows for sure.  But, for whatever reason, if you were to make a list of Romo's 10 biggest disasters, just about all of them had a giant late afternoon or night audience that was shown to 90% of the country and with millions of eyeballs.  Whereas many of his 10 biggest performances have often been 12pm starts at home against Buffalo, St Louis, or Tampa Bay.

In fact, there was a fantastic story a few weeks back documenting one of the best traits about Romo is that he doesn't have the meltdown games that prevent his team from having a chance to win nearly as often as many in his position.  In fact, only Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Phil Rivers, and Peyton Manning had a lower percentage of "bad games" or games where the QB rating was sub-67.  However, they all have poor outings and Romo has averaged about 2 times a year where he basically prevents the team from winning.

See Chicago on Monday Night 2012, at Washington on Sunday Night 2012, and San Francisco in the season opener 2014 as the 3 that come quickest to mind in the Head Coach Jason Garrett era.

Romo threw 3 interceptions yesterday, could have thrown a few more, and generally looked about as bad as we have seen him look in his many years at the helm.

The timing, of course, is most disconcerting as it follows a training camp where he was very spotty in his participation and after the offseason where his back surgery was a real cause for concern about his future resembling his past.

Already, many are insisting his back was not the cause of these picks, but nobody knows for sure.  From this vantage point, the interceptions and general poor throws all day seemed to be a mixture of uncertainty, confusion, and looping throws that lacked velocity and accuracy when needed.  Those elements conspiring together are a very troubling mixture that dooms any chance this team has if it is more than a bad hour of QB play.

Interception #1 was a very poor decision out of a run formation (12 personnel) and play-action on 1st Down.  There is nothing worse than a veteran QB taking an unnecessary chance by throwing into coverage on 1st Down.  If you follow this blog, play-action fakes are something Romo/Garrett have very seldom employed, but with Scott Linehan here it is assumed it will be used much more as a weapon that exploits the powerful run game that appears to be present.  With Terrance Williams springing open over the top, Romo forces the ball into coverage at Dez Bryant and a sea of red with Eric Reid making the catch and a huge runback.

Interception #2 was even worse.  This was 1st and goal from the 5 and another play-action fake that gave Romo lots of time with Dwayne Harris open at the goal-post early, but you can see Romo double-clutching the ball as he looked there.  He stood there, then rolled right to buy some extra time and then, inexplicably, lobbed the ball in the general direction of Jason Witten, but it had no chance.  Patrick Willis recovered as the ball hung in the air way too long and made the pick, which if he did not grab, teammate Antoine Bethea might have.  Just an awful decision from a guy who doesn't make very many.

Finally, interception #3 which was also on 1st down and also on play-action was another run strong formation (13 personnel) which used the run fake and the personnel to isolate the lone WR Dez Bryant with a light secondary.  But, the Cowboys have shown this enough to warn the opponent that they love to do this with Witten trying to attract the safety underneath and Dez going over the top.  The safety Reid was on the scene and Perrish Cox actually pulled in the deep shot that again was a very poor read.

Where the blame rests - the brain or the back - is something we will debate this week, but the result requires no debate.  It was absolutely his worst performance since 2012 and the game was over by the 2nd interception and 3rd giveaway.  I think you can blame both, as his rust was obvious, but his throws did not look right on several occasions as he airmailed receivers or just threw balloon balls at times that had no zip.  His mechanics looked poor and he also took some pretty big hits as he was mauled for 3 sacks.

For now, let's assume it was a poorly timed bad performance and assume that it can only get better with more reps (for the sake of this column, I will avoid ranting about the way this was all handled in August in Oxnard).

Beyond Romo, let's look at a few other elements that might actually have us optimistic moving forward.  For instance, the run game was not out-matched and 5.5 yards a carry and 127 yards overall must be given a passing grade.  They looked physical and useful and despite the frustrating decision to try to pass it into the end zone on 2nd and 1 from the 2 which resulted in the Justin Smith sack, the reviews of the line were passable.  This all, despite Tyron Smith looking as poor as he has in his 49 games as the Cowboys best linemen.  Yes, the competition level in San Francisco puts him up against very talented defenders, but he also picked a bad time to look pedestrian.  Ahmad Brooks and Justin Smith both had moments against Tyron that were are not accustomed to seeing.

The defense also looked interesting.  In particular, Jeremy Mincey, Henry Melton, and Rolando McClain had flashes of a bruising style that we haven't seen in preseason much.  As the rebuild of this defense continues, we must take positives where we can find them in 2014, and those 3 all looked quite reasonable for me - but I do want to examine more as the week goes on.

The tempered enthusiasm on the defense would be based on not taking the ball away at all, and the Cowboys have now lost 17 games in a row when they generate 0 takeaways.  Of course, nobody is pointing at that because the team was -4 in the turnover differential, and no team won a game when they were -4 in the entire NFL in 2013 (1-19) except when the Lions did it to the Cowboys last October 27th.

The 49ers are one of the tougher tests on the schedule and were the favorites yesterday.  They likely will go down as simply a better team than the Cowboys are prepared to handle right now.  But, Dallas made it entirely too easy, and the oddity of the QB being the biggest reason is rather indisputable.

Now, road tests at Tennessee and St Louis await, before another heavyweight comes to Arlington at the end of the month.  The biggest question then is whether the stadium in Arlington will be more covered with Saints fans in every section than the amount of 49ers fans who over-ran the building yesterday.  I am not sure whether they out-numbered the Broncos fans from last season in Jerry's house, but in either case you can not call that a home field advantage anymore.

It appears the locals are tiring of the mediocrity and are fine with cashing in their tickets when the price is right to traveling fans of the opponents.  That is their right for sure, but it is one more layer of depressing news for those that want to see this team back amongst the league powers.

Right now, that seems a reality that is a million miles away.

BaD Radio Podcasts 2014

Our Latest Weekly Podcast:

 Weekly Pod for 9/05/14 - Episode #275 - The reveal of the Fall Lineup featuring George Dunham, Wash resignation, NFL Playoff picks, Cowboys season predictions, 1:30 News, Jason Spezza in studio, Homer Call of the Week - Week 0, Picking games with Computer and Kid from Kid N' Play


---------

Weekly Pod for 1/3/14 - Episode #241 - Jamie Benn in studio, the Cowboys come up short in Week 17 against the Eagles, Dan goes to a party on New Year's Eve, Bob's Griswald-esque vacation.

Weekly Pod for 1/10/14 - Episode #242 - BaD Radio are in New York for the coldest day the Big Apple has ever had, Bob goes to dinner with NHL players, the show takes a trip to see Letterman, Tyler Seguin in studio, the return of the Gabby Urinator, Brad Richards in studio, Ralph Strangis talks dating (among other things).

Weekly Pod for 1/17/14 - Episode #243 - A review of the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, 60 Minutes report on Alex Rodriguez, Mavs GM Donnie Nelson, Rangers GM Jon Daniels, Bruins play-by-play extraordinaire Jack Edwards, Homer Call of the Week, Lunch Pails, Top 10 QBs under 30.

Weekly Pod for 1/24/14 - Episode #244 - NFL Championship Game Reactions, Richard Sherman Audio and the controversy surrounding his post game comments, MLK Game, The Today Show has some thoughts on Richard Sherman as well, Evan Grant Wedding, Tanaka to the Yankees, Sports Movie Of The Month Reviewed: Big Fan, Homer Call Playoffs.

Weekly Pod for 1/31/14 - Episode #245 - UFC fighter, Chris Weidman, Super Bowl 28 Revisited, Mike Pereira discusses rule changes he'd like to see and the officiating angles of DEN/SEA, Super Bowl News, BaD Radio takes a field trip to see a taping of The Daily Show, Darryl Strawberry discusses his career and subsequently becomes angry with Dan, a trip to see an outdoor NHL game at Yankee Stadium, Denis Leary from Radio Row.

Weekly Pod for 2/7/14 - Episode #246 - Seattle dominates Denver in Super Bowl 48, Show News/Crew Changes, Gay/ Not Gay, Bob visits Mexican grocery stores and Donovan has started working out with Mike Sirois' personal trainer, Weather News, Donnie Bit, Joe and Murr from Impractical Jokers.

Weekly Pod for 2/14/14 - Episode #247 - The Michael Sam story, Dan's love for having a fire in the fireplace backfires and causes him to have to wash his jeans, 30 for 30: The Price Of Gold (Kerrigan/Harding), Audio Bag starring Charles Barkley, Cool Runnings reviewed, Mavs get their best win of the season heading into the All-Star break over the Pacers, John Sponsler joins the show live from Sochi, Ticket Minion Dating Game Show.

Weekly Pod for 2/21/14 - Episode #248 - Olympic hockey talk after the U.S. down Russia in a thrilling pool play game, why does the NHL allow it's players to participate in the Olympics, Dale Hansen goes viral with a commentary on Michael Sam, Cultural Frontrunning talk with the Heat in town, Tom Green, Homer Call Playoffs, 30 for 30 on Richard Jewell, Wife Olympics.

Weekly Pod for 2/28/14 - Episode #249 - Jerry Jones crazy-ass audio from the combine, Lots of News, Wash's Extension, Eric Nadel in-studio for a couple of segments, Lunch Run Problems: They Forgot The Rice, Dan's World, "Schooled" Review (documentary about college sports), "Justified" Writer VJ Boyd.

Weekly Pod for 3/7/14 - Episode #250 - Ian Kinsler makes it clear he left the Rangers on less than amicable terms, Ask Dan Anything: The Romance Edition, Donnie with Jose Calderon, Does Race Have An Impact On The Types Of Phone One Uses, Big News Segment, Mike Modano in-studio, Homer Bowl 2014, Simpsons Game Show courtesy of TC.

Weekly Pod for 3/14/14 - Episode #251 - Dan & Sean's Wedding Feud, Ralph Strangis on the Mike Modano number retirement ceremony, Rich Peverley incident, Joe Rogan talks Dinosaur Erotica, TC's New Job, Tyler Seguin Show, 1:30 News: Can Dan Start A Fire, Dana White in studio.

Weekly Pod for 3/21/14 - Episode #252 - Bob's idea for the one move Jerry could make that would immediately buy back public confidence, the Cowboys sign Henry Melton, Tom Grieve momentarily morphs into Beavis trying to pronounce a Ranger's name, Intern Cody betrays the trust of our local media brethren, UFC Champ Johny Hendricks, "Glory Road" reviewed, Hooky Palace Game Show.

Weekly Pod for 3/28/14 - Episode #253 - The injuries are mounting for the Rangers as opening day approaches, Quinton Ross is not dead - and to prove it,  he does an interview with Norm, Mark Cuban bows up to the NFL, a Die Hard-esque situation sort of plays out in Victory Plaza, Donovan interview with Prince Fielder from a few years ago, NEWS, Lunchpails: Aaron Craft Edition.

Weekly Pod for 4/4/14 - Episode #254 - BaD Radio at Globe Life for Rangers Opening Day, Donovan and Jake Opening Day song, The Ticket shows up on FX's "Justified" yet again, What Matters More To Bob: Stars playoffs or Wisconsin Final Four success?, Who Is The Smartest Phillie?, NEWS, Mavs are able to close out the Clippers.

Weekly Pod for 4/11/14 - Episode #255 - A review of the Final Four title game in Arlington, TC has some hard hitting questions for a UCONN player, Do Some Of The Research, Jake's twitter nemesis, longtime NHL enforcer Stu Grimson in studio, Classic Audio: Pete Stein v. The Hardline reviewed, A Touching Tribute to Rich Phillips, the CROW Line.

Weekly Pod for 4/18/14 - Episode #256 - Dirk Day (Dirk Nowitzki in studio for a full hour), "Draft Day" Reviewed, Hillsboro Disaster 30 For 30, Tyler Seguin Show, Should The Mavs Be Afraid Of The Spurs Debate, News News News, Mavs Playoffs Preview.

Weekly Pod for 4/25/14 - Episode #257 - Live coverage of a local police chase (complete with a call to King Cut), Tyler Seguin, Dan loses his wallet, "The Bad News Bears" reviewed, Pudge Rodriguez in-studio, Mavs talk, 1:30 News, Johnny Manziel meets John Gruden and talks about Drake.

Weekly Pod for 5/2/14 - Episode #258 - Stars Playoff Memorial, Mavs/Spurs Talk, "Justified" Writer VJ Boyd hangs out in studio, Donald Sterling ruling reactions, The Case Against The Cowboys Drafting Johnny Football, News News News, Judge Reinhold in studio for a full hour.

Weekly Pod for 5/9/14 - Episode #259 - Mavs season ends after a disappointing Game 7 loss to the Spurs, Mavs Offseason early preview, Tom Grieve Show (featuring medical marijuana talk), Bob Trip To The UK, Soccer Ticket Scam, News, Dan's NFL Draft Name Game, NFL Draft Talk (preview and Day 1).

Weekly Pod for 5/16/14 - Episode #260 - NFL Draft talk complete with Johnny Football discussion, Michael Sam controversy, NBA Audio featuring Shaq/Charles Barkley/Churros, "Mommie Dearest" reviewed, Dan interviews William Shatner.

Weekly Pod for 5/23/14 - Episode #261 - Evan Grant talking Rangers injuries and potential leadership void,  Mark Cuban's comments on prejudice spark controversy, Texas Tech head football coach Kliff Kingsbury in studio, Lunch Pails: NFL Draft Edition, Classic Matthew McConaughey audio review, Fake Jerry impressions from around our office.

Weekly Pod for 5/30/14 - Episode #262 - Bob talks grilling and kids these days, Sean Lee out for the season, Donovan Jury duty which evolves to Maya Angelou death talk, 1:30 News including: the kidnapped Nigerian girls, people making your kids gay, motorcycle death in Lewisville, Manziel in Vegas, Dans position on bacon, spelling bee, and ferret talk, Alexi Lalas on the World Cup/growth of US Soccer, Dan asks if we should trade Adrien Beltre and other Rangers injury talk, interview with Donovan's wife Twiggy, Edward Snowden talk, Crow Line featuring: a Bob death threat, space is gay, and chronic masturbation.

Weekly Pod for 6/6/14 - Episode #263 - Lebron James Leg cramp, Dan gets a new grill, Nelson Cruz Returns to DFW, Hidden Cash Dallas in Victory Plaza, News including: Grapevine Braums perv, a Hitler billboard, and a prisoner of war trade. Also baseball prospects and the Jon Singleton contract, Emily Giffin who wrote Bob into her book, Evan Grant, Ghetto Jeopardy, and a classic WTDS.

Weekly Pod for 6/13/14 - Episode #264 - Bob gets blocked on twitter by Keith Olbermann, LeBron's leg cramps and the NBA Finals, Mark Aguirre in studio. BaD Radio takes a trip to the ballpark to talk to Adrian Beltre and Tim Bogar at the ballpark, 1:30 News, and BaD Radio reviews their sports movie of the month (with the assist from Corby Davidson): Victory.

Weekly Pod for 6/20/14 - Episode #265 - BaD Radio discuss the Spurs winning the NBA Finals, USA beating Ghana in the World Cup, and telling your kids why African-Americans make up the majority of pro sports leaves. Annual Juneteenth show at the Lavish Lounge with a game of "Is It True" and another tasting challenge. BaD Radio Reports on the college athletics grading system, Sean's Baby Song playlist, and 15 for 15 Episode 1: Rocco on the Rant.

Weekly Pod for 6/27/14 - Episode #266 - BaD Radio talk World Cup with the USA and Portugal tying. They ask what the popularity of soccer will be in the US in 15 years and talk to their old pal Dirk Nowitzki about the World Cup. Donovan has a little wireless fun in victory plaza after the Germany - USA match and we have News News News, Dan teaching his kids "Gangsters Paradise", Stars Hockey, Lebron becoming a free agent, and Chloe from 24. We top it off with the return of Tyson Chandler to Dallas.

Weekly Pod for 7/11/14 - Episode #267 - Lebron goes back home, BaD Radio calls Miami, Dan Gilbert letter, What do you call your grandparents, Rangers, 1:30 News, Stars, Emanuel Sanders, Dans House sitting fun with Fahy passing out on his porch, Dan and TC go on a quest to find the truth about the Mobile Leprechaun.

Weekly Pod for 7/18/14 - Episode #268 - The epic saga of Dans broken YV, Donnie Nelson talks Chandler Parsons, Bobs date night, Dave Cameron talks blowing up the Rangers, News, Brett Ship talks Prime Prep Academy.

Weekly Pod for 7/25/14 - Episode #269 - Pre Training Camp Cowboys and Jason Gattett talk, Bob visits Alcatraz and encounters the worst tour guide ever, 1:30 news featuring Steven A Smith and John Wiley Price, Tom Grieve, Elvis struggling, both Henry Melton and Tyrone Smith live from Oxnard. Finally episode 2 of BaD Radios 15 for 15 series the story of when Bob and Dan first met.

Weekly Pod for 8/01/14 - Episode #270 - Live from Cowboys training camp in Oxnard. Tyron Smith Contract, Romos back, Crazy Jerry audio, Beyonce quiz, Music quiz, 1:30 News, Dale Hansen and Brad Sham, and the BaD Radio training camp challenge featuring shirtless Dan.

Weekly Pod for 8/08/14 - Episode #271 - Jerry Jones photo controversy, Interview with Ahmad Dixon, Best of the Blue Star Network, Cowboys first preseason game talk including Mino getting a tweet on the program, 1:30 news featuring Ebola news, BaD Radio reports on scissorgate, finally Mike Rhyner sees is any of the Cowboy players are Regulators

Weekly Pod for 8/15/14 - Episode #272 - BaD Radio say goodbye to intern Taylor and Brad, talk Orlando Scandrick suspension, Johnny Mansiels first pre season game. Tyler Seguin comes in studio, bob joins Ferrall on the bench, Cowboys Raiders Brawl aftermath and Friday game show titled "Who are you?"

Weekly Pod for 8/22/14 - Episode #273 -Cowboys V Ravens recap, David Newbury tells a crazy Vegas story, Johnny Manziel flips the Red Skins off, Donovan and Jake watch Game of Thrones, BaD Radio Reports on quarterbacks and their bad games, Kid from Kid 'n Play in studio.

 Weekly Pod for 8/29/14 - Episode #274 - Jason Garrett risk aversion, Bob talks about donating clothes for a good cause, Fun audio including who has showered with Michael Sam, Jerry Jones ESPN The Magazine article, Trey interrupts Jerry, Computer calls in, Dan Defies God and gets struck by lightning, Ahmad Dixon controversy, 15 for 15: Rusty Greer fly ball challenge

Drop Your Pants! September 11 at Victory Plaza

Audio From the Show - August 26th about this very topic click here - 

Several years ago, I was made aware of a church named Cornerstone Baptist Church at the corner of I45 and Martin Luther King Blvd in Dallas that is doing plenty of work with the needy of Dallas.  Over time, my church up in my community (Valley Ranch Baptist) started doing work in many avenues with them, such as a Christmas Store, a food ministry, and a clothes closet.

I had only helped out around the holidays in making sure many families down there were able to provide gifts for their children at Christmas, but have recently been made aware of the clothes closet through my wife encouraging our family to go down one Saturday a few weeks back and help outfit those in need and often, homeless, with fresh clothing.

It was quite an experience, and our family was able to see the real needs that are everywhere if you spend a few hours looking around.  One thing that came quickly to my attention was the lack of clothes available to donate to those who are in need.  In particular, the lack of jeans for adult males.

Now, I don't know if this is a connection for everyone in the world, but for me, I could think of a stack of jeans in my closet that I don't ever wear, but I also never get rid of because I am a pack rat.  I keep stuff because it is too hard to just discard jeans that have nothing wrong with them.  However, in seeing these men who need jeans, it suddenly became clear that I have a solution in my closet.

I also am lucky enough to have a job where my audience is largely adult male.  I am guessing most of you have waists that are somewhere between 28 and 52.  Well, guess what, you are not alone!  In fact, someone right now needs your pair of pants that you may never wear again anyway!

Now, it isn't just jeans.  I mentioned cargo shorts (but, because of storage issues, we are at the end of short season and offseason giving is not the priority at this time), but I was told 95% of the need is jeans along with shirts, underwear, socks, and basically anything adults would need if they had almost nothing.

Additionally, travel size shampoos, skin lotions, dental care items, and razors are all helpful as well.

I want to put the call out to all of you and ask you to consider to bring by these items to our broadcast at Victory Plaza at the American Airlines Center downtown on Thursday, September 11th.  We will broadcast in the plaza and the Hardline will, as well.

So, from 12p-7p, we will have people on hand to take your items and make sure they go directly to the clothes closet at Cornerstone and will get to the people that desperately need them.  Please consider doing so!

DROP YOUR PANTS WITH BAD RADIO & THE HARDLINE

-this Thursday from 12n-7pm
-At our Victory Plaza Mothership, on the first floor
-We are in need of your old Pants, Jeans, Shorts…stuff that you don’t need or don’t wear anymore
-Clean out your drawers and closet an bring them by the station and drop them off for a good cause
-We will donate all items to men in the metroplex that are in need as we head into Fall
-So DROP YOUR PANTS for The Ticket!

The Official "Start of Another Season" Post

Not one down has been played for the 2014 Dallas Cowboys.  Not one throw, not one catch.  Not one tackle, and certainly not one missed tackle or injury.

So, what do we expect from this team?  Well, I can only answer for myself.  And since the day of the news that Sean Lee was gone for the year, I have been sitting on a 6-10 outcome.

2013 does sit in my head as a show of this team being close.  Despite its ridiculous and massive flaws, they were one Kyle Orton drive away from winning the NFC East, hosting a playoff game (against San Francisco) and having a chance to silence the critics in January.

They were that close - even though they were torn apart by injuries, lost two catastrophic disasters late, and were defeated soundly by backup Quarterbacks.

So, by any definition, they were close in 2013.

Now, what does that have to do with 2014?

Well, on one hand, they are still in a division with many flawed teams.  Philadelphia has reason to believe they are a cut above the others, but for every issue Dallas has, the Giants and Redskins are in the same boat for sure.  The Eagles have considerable personnel issues and between Foles, turnover fortune, schedule strength, and coaches locking down on Chip Kelly for an off-season, I have reason to believe that the darlings of the media are not quite as good as they are being sold.

But, on the other hand, the big subtractions on defense, the minimal cash and asset outlay to fix the defense, a trickier schedule, and the issues the offense has had with actually proving to anyone they can win tough games by themselves leaves me skeptical that they have a ceiling that puts them very high compared to the contenders in the conference.

The one issue that gives me greatest pause, however, has been mentioned numerous times but bears repeating on this the eve of opening day, and that is my lack of faith that Tony Romo will have perfect attendance in 2014.  His back surgery, escalating miles on the odometer, and overall diminishing athleticism seem enough to make one of his biggest supporters over the years (me) begin to look elsewhere for the next QB to lead this team in the near future.  It may be 2 or 3 years now, but I am more than pessimistic when I hear Romo talk about playing his best football for the next 5 seasons.  His best football happened from 2006-2009.  We haven't seen his best football in a long time, in my opinion.  He is not horrible at all, anymore, but there is reason to believe that we have seen him at his peak.

Beyond that, Jason Garrett is in the final year of his deal.  Do I think his job is in jeopardy?  Not especially.  If he hasn't been fired yet, there is little reason to believe he skates on thin ice at this moment.  But, I believe he has cost this team a win or two in each of his 3 full seasons at the helm and there is no reason to believe he is actually improving with his in-game decision making.  His inability to manage a situation late in the game has been a consistent department of under-peformance and unless he starts showing signs that he is getting better I see no reason to believe that will change.

Yes, the offensive line looks promising, but I did not feel the offensive line was at fault for much of anything in 2013.  In fact, taking a guard/tackle from Notre Dame is a nice depth play, but to expect that he will raise the play of the guards from last season would have to assume that the guard play last year was substandard.  I don't believe it was for a moment, so I will admit that the 2012 Cowboys were exposed for having a poor offensive line.  But, in 2013, they were at or above league standards of performance.

When they wished to run the ball, they did so with great ease.  When they wanted to protect their passer, they did a better than average job.  Romo was sacked once every 16.3 passes, when the league surrenders a sack every 14 attempts.  Take Peyton Manning out of that mix and you will see that it was quite solid, and overall put the Cowboys at 8th best in sack percentage against.

Will they run?  Will they figure out ways to showcase their best weapon, Dez Bryant?  I assume Scott Linehan will be a fantastic hire and fix plenty of what ails them.  I assume he will move Bryant and figure out ways to use him in a very "Megatron" way.  Play design has never been more on display in this league than it seems to be presently, and I believe that Linehan is very strong at his craft.  We shall see how that works here.

Meanwhile, the defense is still the defense.  Well, in reality, it isn't.  DeMarcus Ware, Jason Hatcher, Sean Lee, and Orlando Scandrick will all be subtracted, with Scandrick to return for Game 5.

The offseason was curious.  They signed players who were cheap.  Across the board.  Heck, they didn't even try to keep Ware very enthusiastically with help from Kyle Orton's money.  Instead, they cleared out old and replaced with cheap and new.  Henry Melton could fill a hole in the middle, but to assume he can approach Hatcher's fantastic 2013 is highly optimistic as he comes of knee surgery and barely played a moment in August.  Then, we must figure out how to get George Selvie to duplicate his career year, and hope that DeMarcus Lawrence hits the ground running in the 2nd half of the season to give this thing a chance.  And that doesn't even address the linebacking chaos.  They are really thin and unproven there, and we are just leaving the station on this train.

Injuries hit every year.  Usually in the preseason and in September, and then they begin to stack on top of each other as the season goes on and attrition kicks in.  It is a mess and it gets worse and worse as it goes on.  This team is thin at so many spots right now that many of its best fans cannot name the front 7 or even come close.  If you think the starters in September have limited or checkered resumes, just wait until you see who replaces them in November when the reinforcements are needed.

The Cowboys play the NFC West - the best division in football and a very physical, bruising style of football.  2-2 would be a pretty good haul there (I think either the Rams or Cardinals, but possibly an upset in week 1 with San Francisco).  They play the AFC North, where 2-2 seems doable (Jacksonville - but in London - and Houston).  They also play the Saints and the Bears, and for me that is 0-2.  That leaves the division 6, and I am thinking that means a split with New York and Washington, and likely to be swept by the Eagles for 2-4.  Add them up, and I am back to 6-10.

My major issues with the Cowboys are QB health, troubling depth, defense, defense, and more defense.  They just don't seem to have the quality that they had even last year as far as top players on the defense you can point to.  Instead, we are hoping that Melton, Bruce Carter, and Mo Claiborne can all bounce up at the same time.  That is a lot of hope.  And hope is a very poor strategy.

I think if everything goes right and Romo plays in 16 games, they can out perform my projections and win 8 or maybe even 9.  But, if Romo plays in just 10 games, they could easily drop down to 5-11 or even 4-12.

I expect that 2014 will finally be the end of Jason Garrett, but I don't say that with much confidence, nor do I think it will change much unless Jerry is ready to hire another Parcells-like overlord.  And from the sounds of his many interviews, it doesn't seem like he is the least bit interested in that.  However, I do confidently say that another off-season of poor decision making and cap management in spring 2014 from the Cowboys has me no longer buying what they are selling.  I am fresh out of optimism for this current cast of characters.

Too many holes, too many questions.  And certainly not enough answers for me to paint a rosy picture to those who want to know how I see this season going.

I have them safely out of the playoffs and easily in the Top 5-10 in the draft next spring.  I think 6-10 is about right and I will happily accept the ridicule if I am off the target.

But, for that to happen, they will have to do something they haven't done in years - out-perform their predictions.

In other words, prove me wrong, Dallas.

My NFL Season Picks - 5 minutes before the season starts

NFC - Phil, NO, GB, Sea

WC - TB, Chi

AFC - NE, IND, Balt, Den

WC - SD, Hou

Super Bowl - Saints over Broncos

2014 NFL Quarterback Win Total Post

For no other reason than I want to post this every Opening Day, here are the records, playoff records, and Super Bowl titles for the 32 QBs who are their team's respective "QB1" at this moment in time.

I know, I know - unfair stats and there is nothing more unreasonable than hanging wins and losses on a Quarterback (wins are not a QB stat!), but this is the world in which we live and the blog I want to make available to those who find it interesting or a reference guide for bar-room discussions.  This is otherwise known as "Eli Manning's favorite post of the year". Ages are based on Opening Day age, 2014.

NFC EAST

Team	Starter QB - Age	Starts	Record	Playoff Rec	Rings
NYG	E Manning - 33	151	85-66	8-3	2
PHI	Foles - 25	16	9-7	0-1	0
DAL	Romo - 34	108	63-45	1-3	0
WAS	Griffin - 24	28	12-16	0-1	0

NFC NORTH

Team	Starting QB - Age	Starts	Record	Playoff Rec	Rings
MIN	Cassel - 32	68	32-36	0-1	0
CHI	Cutler - 31	104	56-48	1-1	0
GB	Rodgers - 30	87	58-29	5-4	1
DET	Stafford - 26	61	24-37	0-1	0

NFC SOUTH

Team	Starting QB - Age	Starts	Record	Playoff Rec	Rings
NO	Brees - 35	185	110-75	6-5	1
ATL	Ryan - 29	94	60-34	1-4	0
TB	McCown - 35	38	16-22	0-0	0
CAR	Newton - 25	48	25-23	0-1	0

NFC WEST

Team	Starting QB - Age	Starts	Record	Playoff Rec	Rings
SF	Kaepernick - 26	23	17-6	4-2	0
SEA	Wilson - 25	32	24-8	4-1	1
STL	Bradford - 34	26	13-13	0-0	0
ARI	Palmer - 34	137	64-73	0-2	0

And now, to the AFC:

AFC EAST

Team	Starting QB - Age	Starts	Record	Playoff Rec	Rings
NE	Brady - 37	191	148-43	18-8	3
BUF	Manuel - 24	10	4-6	0-0	0
NYJ	Smith - 23	16	8-8	0-0	0
MIA	Tannehill - 26	32	15-17	0-0	0

AFC NORTH

Team	Starting QB - Age	Starts	Record	Playoff Rec	Rings
PIT	Roethlisberger - 32	142	95-47	10-4	2
BAL	Flacco - 29	96	62-34	9-4	1
CLE	Hoyer - 28	4	3-1	0-0	0
CIN	Dalton - 26	48	30-18	0-3	0

AFC SOUTH

Team	Starting QB - Age	Starts	Record	Playoff Rec	Rings
IND	Luck - 24	32	22-10	1-2	0
TEN	Locker - 26	18	8-10	0-0	0
JAC	Henne - 29	50	18-32	0-0	0
HOU	Fitzpatrick - 31	77	27-49-1	0-0	0

AFC WEST

Team	Starting QB - Age	Starts	Record	Playoff Rec	Rings
SD	Rivers - 32	128	79-49	4-5	0
OAK	Carr - 23	0	0-0	0-0	0
DEN	P Manning - 38	240	167-73	11-12	1
KC	A Smith - 30	90	49-40-1	1-2	0

If you are curious, here is the 2013 version of this post.

Enjoy without prejudice.  

Decoding Linehan: Where Do We Start?

A long time ago, I became interested in the inner-workings of the Cowboys game strategies.  From there, I started studying more and more the Xs and Os of the game.  That led to attempting to understand what the Cowboys do and why they do it.  Sometimes, it enlightens a situation involving this team and sometimes it only leads to more complex questions.

But, in the end, it is now a passion of mine to attempt to decipher what the Cowboys are doing from a strategic standpoint, and then attempting to pass it on to readers who want to join on this journey.

It is not for everyone.  In fact, in this day and age of fantasy football and the red zone channel, it may not be for most.  But, to those who enjoy diving deep on just one team and knowing as much as humanly possible about the Dallas Cowboys, you might just enjoy this trip.

Every week, on Tuesdays most the time, I write a blog entry called "Decoding Linehan".  This, of course, is the next in a long line of "Decoding Garrett" from 2008-2012 and "Decoding Callahan" in 2013.  On there, we track all sorts of offensive items that aren't generally found in the box score.

We elaborate on what worked, what didn't, and what this may tell us about their next battles.  In a sense, we attempt to review and predict what their game-plans will be, and then review them carefully as the coaching staff itself does on a weekly basis.

That said, our level of detail can't get so deep that only football nerds understand it.  So, it is my goal every year to track things that are easily consumed for the passionate, and not too intimidating for the newcomers to join in.

Feedback is very helpful, so that I can make sure to elaborate on points that need it from a reader's standpoint, so feel free to drop me a message at any point.

=====

To begin, let's discuss how we got here.  Below, please examine the NFL run/pass splits compared to the Dallas Cowboys run/pass splits over the last 6 seasons.  As you can see, the NFL is not even close to 50/50 anymore.  In fact 45% run/55% pass is rather dated.  We are now clearly into the average NFL offense considering 42% run/58% pass to be the new normal.

Compare that to the 35%/65% views of the 2012 and 2013 Dallas Cowboys:

If you can make it work, then great.  If you think the offense needs to be even better than 2013 (which I do and you can read many explanations on that in my August breakdowns of the offense in the archives), then we have to hope that their claims of being a more physical, under-center team are not just words.

Next, here is a look at the % of plays in shotgun.  Now, before we get all carried away here, please know that every system is different.  Personally, I don't think Romo/Garrett have shown that they are more efficient and productive in the shotgun - thus I cringe when they run it to the exclusion of everything else (It invites blitzing and forces a lot of passes into nickel and dime defenses).  However, there are teams that are making it work and Philadelphia was in some level of Shotgun/pistol an absurd 86% of the time.  But, Chip Kelly also ran more on 3rd Down than any team  in the last decade (thanks, Football Outsiders) so whatever you can make work is fine.

Regardless, the Cowboys have moved more and more to standard shotgun, which for them results in a 85% pass split.

Next, we need to know what personnel grouping the Cowboys run the majority of the time.  The chart below can seem confusing (because it kind of is), but just know that you can see the Personnel Groupings on the right with a corresponding color.  The numbers around the pie chart are the percentages each grouping is used.  Yellow is "S11" or "Shotgun 11" Personnel which was run 36.5% of the time out of about 950 plays in 2013.  Purple is "12" and was used 20% of the time.  "S12" was used 11%, with normal "11" used 10% of the time.

Those were the 4 most used personnel groupings in 2013, which is a departure from the last several years where "21" and "22" personnel were used.  However, for the first 12 weeks in 2013, the Cowboys did not employ a Fullback, so there were almost no plays where they had 2 backs in the game at the same time.




PERSONNEL GROUPINGS - THE KEY TO FIGURING OUT GAME THEORY

If there is one thing we need to look at to better understand how a game of football in the NFL works, it is knowing why personnel groupings matter more than formations or even the plays themselves.

Offensive Groupings are how the defense decides who to put on the field.  After every play, the defensive coaches watch the offense change players and then quickly respond.  If the Cowboys bring on another WR, the Redskins are watching and quickly yell for another corner to run out and replace a LB.  But, if Dallas does the opposite and takes off a WR and puts on a Fullback, then the opposition needs to take a corner off and put a bigger LB out there because they are now feeling a power run coming on.

Formations matter, but a defense has to then adjust with the 11 players already on the field.  When formations are being changed by the offense, the defense cannot swap players, they simply have to match up their 11 as best they can before the snap.  That is why if you can only study personnel or formations, any coach will tell you to concentrate on who is on the field.

Once you do this for a while, you will be able to count in your head as you see the screen and note what the offense is in.  You might even be able to look at the defense and see how the defense has decided to match up.  It is an amazing chess game that goes on before every snap.

Let's show you the Cowboys' favorite 6 groupings.  For the most part, the entire NFL world will roll with these 6:

11 Personnel - 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR - Under center - The Cowboys almost never used this grouping from 2008-2012, but in 2013 they started using it more and more.  The Broncos almost never run anything besides "11", but most of it is Shotgun 11.  If you look around the league, the modern NFL seems to believe in "11" as they would rather have a 3rd WR in the game than a FB.

12 Personnel - 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR - Under Center - This is what you have heard so much about.  The Patriots, the 49ers, the Packers, the Saints, and the Cowboys have all tried to make this their diet.  It is the ultimate balanced package both from personnel (the defense has to make a choice between DBs and LBs and the offense then picks the opposite strength) and from formation - if each side of the offense has a TE there is no weak side!

21 Personnel - 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR - Under Center - Below is the standard personnel grouping that you grew up watching.  This is also called "regular" as it has always been the default grouping.  Of course, we know that the fullback is a dying breed and there is almost no 2-half backs (Tony Dorsett and Ron Springs!) lined up next to each other anymore.  So, while this is the grandfather of them all in the Super Bowl era, it is now just a change-up.  Most teams want a 2nd TE now over a FB.

22 Personnel - 2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR - Under Center - This is the new ground and pound grouping that the Cowboys were so good at during the Martellus Bennett/Marion Barber run in 2009 that ended up in the playoffs when they ran this grouping over 200 times in one season.  This declares run to the defense, they bring in extra "bigs" and we have a street fight.  You have power, but they have 9 in the box to stop you.  My favorite idea here is play action over the top to Dez Bryant running in a wide open secondary because everyone is up for the run.

S11 Personnel - 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR - Shotgun - This is the most run personnel package in the entire NFL now days at it isn't even close.  The Cowboys love it, but their efficiency is not great.  It is the 2-minute offense and the 3rd Down offense, and also the most favored of them all in any situation.  It spreads out a secondary and makes the DBs prove they can cover without a ton of safety help.  The bad side is it reduces your protection options and really encourages blitzing (especially if you aren't great at stopping them).  This is actually also a great running option because the defense is set up for the pass and has few "bigs" in the game.  Especially delayed runs when the DBs all vacate on routes.

S12 Personnel - 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR - Shotgun - And this is what Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Julius Thomas, and other hybrid TE/WR types love.  This is 12 out of the shotgun and may actually make defenses decide to go dime (6 DBs) so that they can cover everyone with a corner and still have 2 safeties.  But, if they do, they are undersized.  The Cowboys drafted Gavin Escobar for this, and still have not figured it out.  But, they have plans and we should see plenty of this in 2014.

Ok, so once you can identify the groups, you are in good shape to understand what the offense is good at and what they are not so good at.  It is far more advanced than saying, "we are a good passing team".  We need to know in what situations are the Cowboys good?  How are defenses adjusting?  Who is winning the match-up game of chess?

Those are the questions we want to answer here every Tuesday.  See if you can learn to look for RBs and TEs on each play and you will have it down.  Each personnel group is named by the total of each.  2 RBs and 1 TE?  21 Personnel.  1 RB and 2 TEs?  12 Personnel.  Easy.

=====

Here are the rankings for the last 3 years on what the Cowboys did most.  We are listing the 4 groups from each of the last 3 seasons that they ran the most often ranked from 1st to 4th.  Then, we list how many times they ran the group for total yardage and then the yards per play (ypp).

Every season has a different number of plays, but 1,000 is about normal.  Also, yards per play are context free, so expect more yards per play from a shotgun situation than from a "Run 1st" situation.  It is nearly impossible to get 7 yards an attempt on the ground, but 7 yards an attempt in the passing game is considered mediocre.

2011	2012	2013
1. S11 Personnel	1. S11 Personnel	1. S11 Personnel
303 - 1733 yds	479 - 3141 yds	345 - 1911 yds
5.71 yds per play	6.55 ypp	5.53 ypp
2. 12 Personnel	2. 12 Personnel	2. 12 Personnel
224 - 1475 yds	143 - 767 yds	190 - 1063 yds
6.58 ypp	5.36 ypp	5.59 ypp
3. 22 Personnel	3. 21 Personnel	3. S12 Personnel
124 - 693 yds	121 - 820 yds	105 - 735 yds
5.59 ypp	6.77 ypp	7.00 ypp
4. S12 Personnel	4. 22 Personnel	4. 11 Personnel
93 - 703 yds	73 - 272 yds	95 - 451 yds
7.55 ypp	3.72 ypp	4.74 ypp
Dallas YPP: 5.91	Dallas YPP: 5.71	Dallas YPP: 5.70
NFL YPP: 5.45	NFL YPP: 5.41	NFL YPP: 5.36

The final 2 lines of the graphic above are the overall "Yards Per Play" for Dallas (overall for all plays) and then the overall NFL YPP to provide some comparison numbers.

And yes, you read that correctly - the average play in the NFL is about 5.4 yards.  That seemed high to me, but it is true.

That is a ton of info, but that is how we roll here.  I hope you can handle it - but as I said at the top, this may not be for every football fan.

Now, we wait to see the Scott Linehan offense on Sunday and then begin to figure out what the changes will be.  It should be fun to see how he plays with these toys.  

2015 NFL Draft Top 100 Watchlist - Draft #1

Collins, Landon	S	Alabama
Cooper, Amari	WR	Alabama
Kouandijo, Arie	G	Alabama
Yeldon, TJ	RB	Alabama
Hill, Austin	WR	Arizona
Flowers, Trey	DE	Arkansas
Strong, Jaelen	WR	Arz State
Coates, Sammi	WR	Auburn
Dismukes, Reese	C	Auburn
Wright, Gabe	DT	Auburn
Drango, Spencer	T	Baylor
Goodley, Antwan	WR	Baylor
Oakman, Shawn	DE	Baylor
Petty, Bryce	QB	Baylor
Ajayi, Jay	RB	Boise St
Beasley, Vic	DE	Clemson
Crawford, Corey	DE	Clemson
Jarrett, Grady	DT	Clemson
Sambrailo, Ty	T	Colo State
Hardy, Justin	WR	E Carolina
Darby, Ronald	CB	Fla State
Edwards, Mario	DE	Fla State
Erving, Cameron	OT	Fla State
Greene, Rashad	WR	Fla State
Jackson, Tre	G	Fla State
Matias, Josue	G	Fla State
O'Leary, Nick	TE	Fla State
Williams, Karlos	RB	Fla State
Williams, PJ	CB	Fla State
Winston, Jameis	QB	Fla State
Fowler, Dante	DE	Florida
Davison, Tyeler	DT	Fresno St
Harper, Josh	WR	Fresno St
Smith, Derron	S	Fresno St
Floyd, Leonard	LB	Georgia
Gurley, Todd	RB	Georgia
Jenkins, Jordan	DE	Georgia
Wilson, Remik	LB	Georgia
Greenberry, Deontay	WR	Houston
Davis, Carl	DT	Iowa
Schreff, Brandon	T	Iowa
Dupree, Alvin	DE	Kentucky
Gaines, Charles	CB	Louisville
Mauldin, Lorenzo	DE	Louisville
Parker, Devante	WR	Louisville
Collins, Jalen	CB	LSU
Collins, LaEl	OL	LSU
Mills, Jalen	CB	LSU
Diggs, Stefon	WR	Maryland
Dorsett, Phillip	WR	Miami
Flowers, Ereck	T	Miami
Johnson, Duke	RB	Miami
Perryman, Denzel	ILB	Miami
Calhoun, Shilique	DE	Mich St
Cook, Connor	QB	Mich St
Drummond, Kurtis	FS	Mich St
Waynes, Trae	CB	Mich St
Funchess, Devin	TE	Michigan
Ryan, Jake	OLB	Michigan
McKinney, Benardrick	OLB	Miss St
Ray, Shane	DE	Missouri
Abdullah, Ameer	RB	Nebraska
Gregory, Randy	DE	Nebraska
Russell, Keivarae	CB	Not Dame
Bennett, Michael	DT	Ohio St
Heuerman, Jeff	TE	Ohio St
Spence, Noah	OLB	Ohio St
Green-Beckham, D	WR	Oklahoma
Striker, Eric	LB	Oklahoma
Tapper, Charles	DT	Oklahoma
Thompson, Tyrus	T	Oklahoma
Williams, Daryl	T	Oklahoma
Mannion, Sean	QB	Ore State
Armstead, Arik	DE	Oregon
EkreOlomu, Ifo	CB	Oregon
Grasu, Hroniss	C	Oregon
Mariota, Marcus	QB	Oregon
Covington, Chris	DT	Rice
Cann, AJ	G	So Carolina
Davis, Mike	RB	So Carolina
Robinson, Corey	T	So Carolina
Hogan, Kevin	QB	Stanford
Montgomery, Ty	WR	Stanford
Peat, Andrus	T	Stanford
Eskridge, Durrell	S	Syracuse
Fields, Devonte	DE	TCU - Not In School
Brown, Malcolm Reed, Cedric	DE	Texas
Shipley, Jaxson	WR	Texas
Harrison, Jarvis	G	Texas AM
Ogbugei, Cedric	T	Texas AM
Hundley, Brett	QB	UCLA
Kendricks, Eric	ILB	UCLA
McCarthy, Ellis	DT	UCLA
Odighizuwa, O	DE	UCLA
Agholor, Nelson	WR	USC
Pullard, H P	LB	USC
Shaw, Josh	CB	USC
Williams, Leonard	DE	USC
Harris, Anthony	S	Virginia
Johnson, Kevin	CB	Wake Forest
Kikaha, Hauoli	DE	Washington
Peters, Marcus	CB	Washington
Shelton, Danny	DT	Washington
Thompson, Shaq	OLB	Washington
Williams, Kasen	WR	Washington
Gordon, Melvin	RB	Wisconsin

Meet the 2014 Dallas Cowboys (For Now)

Day 1.  Today is the start of the NFL work-week for Week 1.

With that in mind, let's write today about the final cut downs for the Dallas Cowboys and what technically is the final roster of the 2014 team.

Of course, that is silly, because the final roster was named at 3pm on Saturday afternoon, and the Cowboys have added several new players who have not even practiced once with the team.  We felt that this would happen - they would wait for everyone to cut down and find that other's garbage was better than the best 53 here at Valley Ranch, and now must welcome complete newbies: Donald Hawkins, Lavar Edwards, Korey Toomer, and CJ Spillman all to the 53 man roster.

Meanwhile, Ahmad Dixon and John Wetzel both made the team for a few hours, only to be sent packing within 24 or 36 hours in the cruel way that only the NFL can provide.  

You never truly have the team "made".  Every day is a competition to keep your spot if you are one of the many on non-guaranteed contracts.  

In fact, even for the many in the ranks today as the team prepares for the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday must look over their shoulder as Orlando Scandrick and Jakar Hamilton (I guess) need spots in a month, Josh Brent seems to be on his way here, Anthony Spencer is here (sort of) and DeMarcus Lawrence is not (sort of).  

So, while I think the first team picture is being snapped, those who are in it are not guaranteed to hang around long and those who aren't in it might end up making a bigger contribution.

Regardless, as of right now, here are you 2014 Dallas Cowboys.  I shall start with the latest depth chart from Ourlads.com which is a very useful website for guys like me.  They are on top of things and aside from having Lawrence on here and Spencer not, it looks like it is all right.  

I used green arrows to show the 19 new (they weren't on the 2013 opening day roster) Dallas Cowboys on the 53 man roster:

24 on Offense, 26 on defense, and 3 specialists is our current count.  I would not read too much into that number because several on defense are designated as special teams aces and may not ever step on the field as defenders, but when injuries hit I might regret saying that.  Let's go down the list:

QB - (3): I have to admit, I never thought for a second that Dustin Vaughan had a chance to join Tony Romo and Brandon Weeden on the 53 man roster.  I don't think the Cowboys should be throwing around roster spots at their leisure, but if you were ever going to allow an indulgence that likely will have zero payoff in the 2014 calendar year, it is to grab a developmental QB that you like after seeing him every day for 6 weeks.  I would still say the odds are significantly against Vaughan every making the slightest impact in the NFL and his time may be borrowed with their alleged shopping for Ryan Mallett, but for now, they clearly didn't think he would get through to the practice squad so they kept him up.  I am fine with that, but he should likely rent for now.

RB - (4): This is one where they had their mind made up in June and never deviated.  Murray, Randle, and Dunbar all had their jobs back then and despite a wild rally by Ryan Williams, in the end it seems he never had a real chance.  He has since been stashed on the practice squad, but Tyler Clutts - the star of last December's reversal of direction back towards employing a full back - makes the squad.  The Cowboys seem committed (for at least the 1st series of the 1st game) to having a more traditional "under center" base offense in their plans rather than 60% shotgun, and Clutts gives them another tool in that toolbox.  Let's see where that goes.

TE - (3): Once again, it was going to take a miracle for the final count here to not be 3, and Witten, Escobar, and Hanna would be those 3.  No miracles occurred.

WR - (5): See if you sense a theme here.  Going into camp, we knew that the 5 were going to be Dez, Williams, Beasley, Street, and Dwayne Harris.  Then, during camp, we talked about the merits of all of the others who flash and make impressions.  They huff and puff and do everything that the team asked of them and in the end, they were likely just standing by in case someone got injured.  That didn't happen and so the many WRs who looked interesting were victims of the numbers game.

OL - (9): Here we have 6 and maybe 7 who were givens, depending on whether you thought Jermey Parnell was good enough to be a given and cheap enough not to eye his $1.4m this year.  But, let's just say that Free, Bernadeau, Smith, Martin, Frederick, Leary, and Parnell were all in.  That left 2 or 3 spots for depth - since you are likely only dressing 7 on game day anyway - and the Cowboys continue to dance with the underwhelming Darrion Weems who has some tackle experience and flex and have now brought in an interior rookie in Donald Hawkins who played tackle at Texas, but seems to be an interior zone blocking project here.  Hawkins was just cut in Cleveland and Philadelphia last spring and now will get his chance here to impress while enjoying weekly paychecks.

DL - (11): 5 Defensive Ends and 5 Defensive Tackles make up the most pivotal spot on the roster.  Keeping in mind that this is where we will also see the most coming and going this season, we assume, and with DeMarcus Lawrence, Anthony Spencer, and Josh Brent all on the radar, we may not want to buy any jerseys yet.  First at Defensive End, we have Selvie, Jeremy Mincey (who we have barely seen), Tyrone Crawford, Spencer (unable to join so far but taken off the PUP list), and newcomer Lavar Edwards.  We are under the impression that Edwards is a promising nickel edge rusher which we thought about Ken Boatright when he was brought in a month ago from Seattle so I will wait and see.  Meanwhile, at DT, we have Nick Hayden back, Henry Melton, Terrell McClain (who we have hardly seen), and the two rookies Ken Bishop and Davon Coleman who were the talk of camp from pretty much day 1.  It should not shock us if Brent takes Hayden's spot eventually, but for now these are the 5 leaving the port.

LB - (7): Here is the panic point for the team as they really hope their group is good enough while the rest of the league is cynical.  Justin Durant, Kyle Wilber, and Bruce Carter are the likely starters and then Rolando McClain, Anthony Hitchens, Cam Lawrence, and Korey Toomer are the reserves.  Toomer is brand new from Seattle and has had people raving about him, but I am not very familiar with his ability, so let me reserve comment until I figure him out a bit.  Lawrence is straight special teams, and I am not sure what the plan is if injuries hit.  I think Durant is starting in the middle, but also the #2 choice at Sam or Will.  McClain may be in on running downs anyway starting on Sunday. This area is a concern.

DB - (8): For now, with Scandrick and Hamilton unavailable for the first 4 games (thanks, guys), they roll with 4 Corners - Brandon Carr, Mo Claiborne, Sterling Moore, and Tyler Patmore.  Then, in the middle, it is just 4 Safeties with JJ Wilcox and Barry Church as the 1s and then, what appears to be 2 reserves that are primary special teams guys in Jeff Heath and another newcomer (but 6-year veteran) CJ Spillman.

Specialists - (3): Dan Bailey, Chris Jones, and LP Ladouceur.

Stay tuned, Lawrence will go to PUP today and then we will be introduced to another new DL prospect that we likely haven't heard of (Jack Crawford from Oakland is the report).  The roster is always being tinkered with.

Position	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
QB	2	2	3	3	3	3	2	3
RB	5	4	4	5	4	4	4	4
TE	3	3	3	2	4	3	4	3
WR	6	5	5	5	5	6	5	5
OL	10	11	10	10	10	9	9	9
DL	6	6	6	7	7	7	10	11
LB	7	8	9	9	7	8	6	7
DB	11	11	9	9	9	10	10	8
ST	3	3	4	3	4	3	3	3
Total	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53

2007: 26 Offense/24 Defense/3 Specialist
2008: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2009: 25 Offense/24 Defense/4 Specialist
2010: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2011: 26 Offense/23 Defense/4 Specialist
2012: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2013: 24 Offense/26 Defense/3 Specialist
2014: 24 Offense/26 Defense/3 Specialist

For fun, below is the final chart from last year at this time.  The red indicates those who are gone:

That should give you a good idea of how much turnover there is in this league for a team that doesn't have much depth.  Always shopping to replace.

Tomorrow, we get going on the Cowboys offense for 2014.