Tuesday, July 07, 2015

The Amazing TD-filled 2014 of Dez Bryant



Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant (88) talks to the TV camera during the Dallas Cowboys vs. the New York Giants NFL football game at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday, November 23, 2014.
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant (88) talks to the TV camera during the Dallas Cowboys vs. the New York Giants NFL football game at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday, November 23, 2014.
The following is the list of every Dallas Cowboy to ever catch more than 10 Touchdowns in a single season.  There are 11 such seasons sorted by TDs:
NameYearCatchesYardsTDs
Dez Bryant201488132016
Terrell Owens200781135515
Frank Clarke196247104314
Dez Bryant201393123313
Terrell Owens200685118013
Bob Hayes196664123213
Dez Bryant201292138212
Bob Hayes196546100312
Lance Rentzel19694396012
Miles Austin200981132011
Laurent Robinson20115485811
It may strike you as interesting that maybe the two most famous wide outs in the history of the club never got there.  Michael Irvin did catch 10 in 1995, but never eclipsed that, and Drew Pearson's high was 8 a few different times.  Of course, it may also strike you that 7 of the 11 most prolific seasons in team history happened in the last decade.  Either that says something about Tony Romo or the current NFL era we live in.  Or both.
Meanwhile, Bob Hayes and Terrell Owens appear on this list twice. But, only one player has been on this list 3 times - and that, of course, is the one and only Dez Bryant - at the age of 26 and only after 5 seasons in the NFL.  He also has a fourth season with 9 TDs.  He is simply and easily on his way to being the most dominating WR in the history of the franchise.
There is certainly more to being a WR than scoring touchdowns, but I doubt many people need to argue that Dez could improve in those departments.  His game is complete and his rough edges have all been smoothed over.  There may be a few receivers in his class in the NFL these days, but make no mistake, that list can easily fit on one hand.
The Cowboys are going to extend him soon (or they are crazy) and I expect he will likely play most if not all of his career with a star on his helmet.  The exercise today was to rate and debate his best touchdowns of his record breaking season.  I have looked at all 16 and admit that his most famous moment is not on this list (in Green Bay) and should be, but let's consider the 16 official touchdowns of 2014 and pick out the best 5.  Then, you can vote your favorite.
He is, by my estimation, the best player on the franchise presently and right in the prime of his career.  In other words, there is no chance I would question paying him the going rate for a player of his caliber.  So let's pick a winner - the best TD of Dez's 2014:
First, HONORABLE MENTIONS.  These, according to my very subjective eye are worthy of mention, but not worthy of the final 5.  Again, this is a subjective game:
The back shoulder fade against the Texans where the rookie Andre Hal was not prepared for the go-to move on the goal-line.  It really looks like he is going against a high school DB here.
One of many Bradley Fletcher moments where the Eagles think a safety is not required against 88.  You do not press Dez Bryant with no help up top.  Of course, Fletcher is not really in press.  He is not really doing anything with conviction.  Corners are terrified to try anything too aggressive and Dez still runs right by them. 

Perhaps this should have been a finalist.  This is just crazy how easy he makes this look.  Fletcher is just demoralized.  Look at the strength and the hands and the casual posture after the catch like he wasn't even strained.  
This demonstrates what Tony Romo is doing.  He doesn't even look at Redskins CB David Amerson.  He simply sees no safety and throws it.  He doesn't even consider the idea that the corner might win.  Then, Dez gets both feet in.  This required a review, but it was a TD.

Look at the speed this man has.  He is too fast and too strong.  Unfair.  When you blitz the Cowboys, you risk this easy read and burned hands.  I was asked how the Cowboys shut down the Redskins blitz in the 2nd meeting.  You are looking at it.  Make them pay.
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The FINALISTS
Candidate #1. The Dominating Jump Ball versus the Colts and Greg Toler.
Toler is 6'0 and generally considered an athletic corner.  He decides he is going to try to get both hands on Dez but again, with no safety on the scene, Romo is just going to throw it to an area and know that Dez is going to treat a corner like this as a traffic cone and overwhelm him with power and then size.  The ease with which he goes up to win these contested battles is just fantastic and rare.  He never seems to lose these jump balls.
Candidate #2.  Underneath throw in London, Bryant beats 7 Jaguars to the goal-line.
You might recall this play from London when in the pregame shows we were hearing about a blown curfew by Bryant.  I mention that because it sure seemed like he had an extra gear that day and this one, from a bunch formation where Dez runs a shallow cross and actually catches the ball behind the line of scrimmage, out-runs the fast safety Jonathan Cyprien to the corner and then just refuses to be denied the end-zone.  It might be his best work of 2014.
Candidate #3.  The Game Winner In New York.
The final minute of the game in New York in November, where the Cowboys needed to put a TD drive together.  This was an amazing play by several players - witness Tyron Smith at LT at Jason Pierre-Paul.  Romo had nearly 10 seconds to throw it and places a perfect ball into the corner of the end-zone where Bryant worked his way open from the left slot against Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie.  This catch is not as good as several others, most likely, but the importance of this TD requires its consideration.
Candidate #4.  Bryant refuses to be tackled against Washington

I never get tired of this TD catch by Dez.  He catches the ball right off the turf at about the 8-yard line.  David Amerson has no chance with his arm tackle and Ryan Clark has Dez around the waist at the 4-yard line.  Despite this, Dez is not going down.  A masterpiece of will which in a nut-shell demonstrates what Bryant is all about as a player.  Relentless.
Candidate #5.  Deep shot in London
Again, against Jacksonville, Dez decided to again show that he is too much for any one guy to pull down.  Romo holds the safety as he is so good at doing with Witten drawing attention underneath so Dez goes on the "Go".  Again, the corner underneath chooses to try to get hands on Dez, which we almost never see work out for that corner (in this case, Dwayne Gratz) and then Jonathan Cyprien must attempt to wrestle him down at the 10, which means Dez pulls him into the end zone.
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So, there you have it.  I realize we will not reach a consensus on which one is the finest, but if you want my vote - Give me #2 as the best and #4 as my runner-up.  Now you can vote, too.
But, for me, this simply verifies my feelings all along as we circle back to his long-term extension - as best portrayed in the movie Rounders:
"Pay that man his money."

Wednesday, July 01, 2015

2014 Pass Rush Report - Weeks 1-4


Dallas Cowboys defensive tackle Henry Melton (69) sacks New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) in the fourth quarter during the second half of play in the New Orleans Saints vs. the Dallas Cowboys NFL football game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on Sunday, September 28, 2014.  (Louis DeLuca/The Dallas Morning News)
Dallas Cowboys defensive tackle Henry Melton (69) sacks New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) in the fourth quarter during the second half of play in the New Orleans Saints vs. the Dallas Cowboys NFL football game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on Sunday, September 28, 2014. (Louis DeLuca/The Dallas Morning News)
On to the next of my summer projects today, where we start a series on the Cowboys pass rush.  Last month, we studied the pass protection of the Cowboys and found plenty of good things and a few things that needed improvement to put this talented OL on the next level of performance in 2015 as they seek a Super Bowl.
But, that could be considered nit-picking, to be honest, these days.  The fact is, the Cowboys offensive line is on the fast-track to elite, and while they could do some things better, we must never forget that the talent is in the room.  If everyone there plays to their paper, the Cowboys OL is going to be a beautiful thing to behold over the next few years (health pending, of course).
Now, about the defensive line and where they are in the ranks of the NFL.  In 2013, the Cowboys dedicated themselves to moving from a 3-4 under Rob Ryan to a 4-3 of Monte Kiffin and Rod Marinelli.  Since then, the Cowboys have also committed to much less blitzing and a much more populated secondary to attempt to limit the big plays over the top.  But, that trade comes at a cost, and the cost is that they have been limited to 62 sacks in the 32 regular season games (1.94 sacks/game).  This ranks 29th in the league, as only the Chargers (61), Raiders (60), and Falcons (54) have fewer sacks.  The league average is about 78 over 2 seasons and the league leader is the amazing front of the Buffalo Bills who have an absurd 111 sacks in 32 games (3.47 sacks/game).
Here is a chart showing the annual sack output by the Cowboys since 2008 - which happens to be the year they led the NFL in sacks by averaging 3.69 sacks/game:
Sacks By Year

Now, in 2008, you had DeMarcus Ware in his prime, Jay Ratliff in his prime, Greg Ellis, and a host of butt-kickers all here at the same time.  Schemes don't often get sacks, pass rushers do.  Since then (When Ellis left), the Cowboys hovered around league average +/- 5 sacks in either direction for the next 5 years.  But, since 2010 (Wade Phillips' exit year, not coincidently), the Cowboys have been a below-average pass rush team 4 of 5 years.
Judging sacks on pure numbers is not a perfect idea, by any stretch.  But, in a passing league, we should also not shake off results like that.  You can see the Cowboys know this, based on their expenditures to bring in pass rushers in bulk in the last 2 offseasons.  They are trying to fix this situation post-haste.
In NFL circles, they don't add up the sacks.  They want to know the attempts/sack as a more true metric of pass rush success.  How many passes do we need to get a sack?  This equalizes the idea that teams get sacks because the other team is behind and is passing constantly.  If we use the below chart, it evens that out:
Pass Attempts Per Sack
The league average for the above chart is 1 sack for every 15.7 attempts.  Buffalo needed 11 passes for every sack this year.  The Cowboys in 2008 only needed 9.6 attempts.  But this year, the Cowboys were at almost 21 passes per sack.
By spending picks on DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory in consecutive years and then signing Greg Hardy from Carolina, the Cowboys have tried to solve this issue the same way they fixed the offensive line - with a massive infusion of talent.  We look forward to what these very promising edge guys might do in 2015 if all goes according to plan.
The objective is to "get there with 4".  The Giants rode this to a Super Bowl or two.  Effective and intimidating pass rush without needing to compromise your coverage plans by bringing too many rushers to get home.  Today's NFL with QBs who pick apart blitzes requires a defense who can scare you up front.
So, for the next several weeks, we will grab 4 games a week and examine the 2014 Cowboys from a pass rush standpoint.  In the first month of 2014, the Cowboys had 5 sacks - here they are.
First a disclaimer:  The analysis below is not meant to be exhaustive for each play.  There is context that could require massive write-ups on each sack, but in the interest of time, let’s do this short and sweet.  I will try to identify the nuts and bolts on each sack, but sometimes, it will be a guess as we do not know specific calls.  We are trying to get this right, but invariably, some of you will see the same play and reach a different conclusion.  Cool? 
Sack #1
SackOppQ/TimeD/D/YdRushSack
#1SF2/8:062/11/33654-Carter
Mike Iupati is one of the best left guards in the game and was signed by the Arizona Cardinals in free agency this year.  But, on this play, I am confused what big #77 is doing for the 49ers as they want to take a run-heavy formation and then run play-action out of it.  The Cowboys look like they are in a run-blitz, but with 6 defenders up, they all just keep trying to get to Colin Kaepernick.  What is weird is what happens next.  They pull Iupati right to sell the play-action.  In this concept, he is actually just now taking the role of the RT in pass-protection.  Often, this really fools the defense.  But, here, Iupati runs right by Bruce Carter and goes to help 21-Frank Gore deal with 26-Sterling Moore.  Odd, and Carter just shoots that gap and takes a sack against Kaepernick on an otherwise horrid day.  The 49ers had everyone accounted for, just a mental bust from Iupati there.
Sack #2
SackOppQ/TimeD/D/YdRushSack
#2TENN2/0:532/10/13451-Wilber/ 69-Melton
Above, the Cowboys get a sack before halftime in Nashville with the ideal 4-man rush against 5 OL.  This is the nickel pass rush in a nutshell.  Put two threats at DT who can each rush, line them up on the outside shoulder of the guard and make the center choose which way he is going to try to help.  Whichever he chooses, the other side gets 2 on 2 in space.  In this spot, Melton is up on LG 67-Andy Levitre and Kyle Wilber has LT 71-Michael Roos.  You may not know this, but Wilber can really rush the passer.  Maybe the 2014 version of Victor Butler as a guy that can move the needle big time with a nice edge move, but cannot do enough things to be a regular in the defense.  Here, Melton and Wilber both get wins, and when Locker doesn't get the ball out, they meet at the QB for a half-sack each.  Nice job here by the front 4 getting home.  They just didn't do this enough.

Sack #3
SackOppQ/TimeD/D/YdRushSack
#3TENN3/11:453/12/29455 - McClain
This sack is certainly helped by Locker facing a 3rd and long and getting caught looking down at the pass rush.  But, from a Cowboys standpoint, look at the Tackle-End stunt where the tackles drive outside the guard and try to pick off the tackle, allowing the Ends to dive inside and try to get home that route.  But, the Titans switch pretty well and are ok until their QB is paralyzed.  Now, watch Rolando McClain who ends up with the sack.  He drops into a zone and then mirrors Locker all the way to the end and really shows impressive quickness to close in on his prey.  McClain did that wonderfully for what amount to a coverage sack.  They only rushed 4, but the 5th man actually picked up the sack after the play broke down.
Sack #4
SackOppQ/TimeD/D/YdRushSack
#4NO4/7:454/9/41NA58 - J Crawford
I don't really know that we can learn much from this one.  The Cowboys were up huge, the Saints cut it to 31-17 and then telegraphed a fake punt that nobody was remotely fooled by, and eventually they hunted down Saints punter Thomas Morstead with Tyrone Crawford tracking him down and Jack Crawford cleaning up for the "sack".  They all count, but this one is not going to fool anyone into learning much about the pass rush techniques.
Sack #5
SackOppQ/TimeD/D/YdRushSack
#5NO4/2:131/10/48469 - Melton

As you can see, at this point of the year, Henry Melton was doing some really impressive things.  Here, he is going right around the once-great, now declining Jahri Evans in the phone booth as Jack Crawford goes by big RT 64-Zach Strief on the edge.  Again, 4 against 5, and the center goes in the other direction to help against Nick Hayden (for some reason, the Saints thought that was a good idea).  This allowed Melton to get home and look the part as a weapon moving forward.  Love his arm swipe to get Evans' hands off of him and just turn the corner inside.
So those are the 5 sacks of the first month where the Cowboys had very little pass rush, but with D Lawrence out with an injury, they were trying to scramble and get what they could.  Next week, we will look at Weeks 5-8 against Houston, Seattle, New York, and Washington.

Monday, June 29, 2015

Chip Kelly, Meet Chan Gailey.


Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly reaches for his whistle during NFL football minicamp, Tuesday, June 16, 2015, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly reaches for his whistle during NFL football minicamp, Tuesday, June 16, 2015, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
You know, there is nothing on the web that is more under-represented than Chip Kelly conversations.  Let's fix that.  I kid.  If I see one more think-piece on Kelly, I might begin a protest.  Nevertheless, he continues to control the NFL news cycle and as we wrap up June, I thought I might take a morning to answer an email that I received last week on this very topic.  Here it is:
Dear Bob-
I have been meaning to write you about this for some time because, while I do enjoy your work for the most part, I do find your feelings about Chip Kelly to be ridiculous.

All the guy has done is reinvigorate the football world at both the college and pro level in the last decade (from out of nowhere) and in doing so has seen the game from a different perspective and has made many teams change how they approach every last detail of how the NFL does business.

Then, he has won 10 games in his first 2 years and has turned around an organization that Andy Reid ran into the ground. And yet, you, with all of your coaching wins, sits here and takes shots at Chip Kelly every chance you get as over-rated and a short-timer in the NFL.

You realize he will be running the NFC East (and threatening for Super Bowls) for the next decade, right? I would love for you to offer real reasons why you are so strongly in the Anti-Kelly camp.

Otherwise, keep up the good work,
Tim

In fairness to Tim, I receive this email (or one sort of like it) about twice a week during the season.  And, in fairness to Chip Kelly, I feel as I do about the future of the Eagles for a number of reasons (which I will attempt to detail this morning).  But, my overall view on the current state of the Eagles franchise is admittedly more of an overall view of the media and how we cover the NFL in this current form.  It seems like most of the media, especially those that present themselves as coming from a deeper intellectual view of the sport than the old guard, like to prop Kelly and everything he does as basically this decade's version of Billy Beane and the Oakland A's after Michael Lewis' game-changing book Moneyball was released.
Back then, a Billy Beane essay was penned weekly, generally comparing how smart he is to how dumb your general manager is in their views of baseball.  Yes, he was taking a different route than "the establishment", and while that is very thought-provoking, it doesn't change what his ultimate objectives were and more importantly, it doesn't change the idea that everyone is trying to figure out a way to solve the unsolvable riddles that sports present.  Innovators are everywhere in professional sports and they are mostly all brilliant minds trying to spend every waking hour looking for that edge.   He is just the one we have propped up in our prose and the one who is willing to participate with the media so that they might write something that champions this cause.  By the way, there is nothing wrong with that - but let's not act like it isn't self-serving to get the media to eat out of your hand.
Beane is great at what he does and so is Kelly.  It has never been my view to say otherwise.  But, I think that they are presented as the opposite of what sits in the similar offices at other organizations and that the public generally fully buys this premise.  We have found the one "innovator" who is on this lonely fight against conventional thinking!  In reality, for reasons that are both true and myth, they are propped up in conversations to a point that in some public circles these feature stories filled with innovating anecdotes are actually placed on par with those who have dominated the sport for over a decade.  And that is generally absurd.
My view has been that Chip Kelly is that he is a bright mind and a coach you would like to have.  And that makes him comparable to several other coaches who are also trying to climb that mountain of success in the NFL for the first time in their lives.  Guys like Bruce Arians in Arizona, Mike Zimmer in Minnesota, Miami's Joe Philbin, and Houston's Bill O'Brien.  Maybe even Gus Bradley in Jacksonville and Mike McCoy in San Diego.  These are all first time head coaches at the NFL level who are all trying to get to the big room.
Instead, Kelly has been separated from this herd, and is not compared to his peer group, but instead, you find him presented as a "Top 5" NFL coach in a group with Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, and Sean Payton - and ahead of guys like Andy Reid, Jason Garrett, Tom Coughlin, Mike McCarthy and Mike Tomlin.  You may see that aside from Garrett, all of those guys have coached Super Bowls, and 3 of them have won Super Bowls, and one of them has won multiple Super Bowls.  Now, I don't really care that he is spit out when you ask a media guy for the Top 5 coaches in the NFL, but you have to admit it is a little much for a guy who is basically (for now) at roughly the same level as Mike McCoy and Bruce Arians.  I am sure they think so.
What is the difference?  Well, I am guessing it is that he does do things differently (haven't you heard?) from sleep monitors to smoothies to tempo to trying to make QB a lesser-leveraged spot in the sport.  Some of these things are successful ventures, some are placebos to promote achievements, but all of it makes for cool features in magazines and blog-space.  Also, and far more attractive to any of us who work covering sports because at one point we all wanted to work IN sports, is the idea that unlike the guys listed above who have all been in the NFL in some capacity for a long, long time, Kelly had never been in the NFL before 2013.  He comes from college football and is certainly not a descendant of Jimmy Johnson or Chuck Noll or Bill Walsh.  He is his own animal who broke into the old boy's network and that is pretty attractive to media guys.
He doesn't need star players to win and he might not need a QB.  He certainly doesn't need a general manager and or your tired football cliches.  Oh, and he is trying to fix Tim Tebow's arm and Sam Bradford's knees.  Ah, yes, the legend of Chip Kelly!
But, there will come a time (sooner than later) when all of the cool anecdotes, color commentator praises, and feature stories in Grantland will no longer be enough.  He will need to separate himself from the competitors in this tough business to show that all that glitters is not just a shiny rock.  And that comes from accomplishment.  Now, when debating a Chip-enthusiast, be prepared for them to already assure you that he has done great things in Philadelphia.  I don't know if you have heard, but he won 10 games in his first two seasons which, they will promise you, is amazing and unheard of.
The following is a list graphic showing a few different coaches in their first 2 years in the NFL - with their names removed for fun:
COACHRECORDPLAYOFF RECvs Playoff Teams
Coach A21-110-15-8
Coach B18-141-17-5
Coach C20-120-14-7
Coach D18-140-25-4
So, the categories are for overall record in 2 seasons, playoff record for those 2 years, and then the overall record in those 2 years versus playoff teams in the regular season.
Not all things are created equal, but this is the actual production for each of these guys and perhaps shows you that there are several guys with rather similar credentials of success through the first 24 months.  You will be interested to know that when it comes to injuries and strength of schedule, there are comparable situations for sure.
Ok, let's reveal who these 4 coaches are...
COACHRECORDPLAYOFF RECvs Playoff Teams
Arians, Arizona,  '13-'1421-110-15-8
McCoy, San Diego, '13-1418-141-17-5
Kelly, Philly,  '13-1420-120-14-7
Gailey, Dallas,  '98-9918-140-25-4
If the point is that something awesome is being built in a different way in Philadelphia, then that is a fun conversation that has an answer similar to the question of whether you have a favorite flavor of ice cream.  You may like strawberry more than vanilla, and that is cool and nothing I can say will change your mind.
But, if the discussion is based on accomplishments and cold, hard facts, well, then we can see that Bruce Arians in Arizona has a real argument for lack of press (it is not sexy to write a feature on an old coach who has been in the NFL forever) and has done so with massive QB injury chaos where Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley started 10 games for him last year in a very difficult division.
If the accomplishment you seek is a playoff win, then look at Mike McCoy, who is still a very young NFL head coach who receives little attention in San Diego.  If you want the only guy on that list who made the playoffs in each of his first 2 years at the helm, then perhaps I can interest you in Chan Gailey, who the Cowboys then fired immediately.
Are you honestly trying to compare Chan Gailey to Chip Kelly???  It really is pretty amazing what having the media do your public relations can do for a guy, right?
In some respects, Chip Kelly is kind of like these other guys, but with a cool grasp of sleep monitors and free agency.
Does that mean I am anti-Kelly?  Not at all.  I would just like us to continue to put the cart behind the horse and wait to see how this all plays out.  Personally, I think his grabbing of the personnel wheel in Philadelphia will be his ultimate undoing, as almost no coach in the modern game can run his own personnel, call his own plays, and be the head coach.  It is a trio of responsibilities that no one man can accomplish.
By the way,  I think Andy Reid was a fantastic coach in Philadelphia, and with 10 playoff wins there, he doesn't need me to defend him.  He has those.  Is Kelly the best coach that the NFL has hired out of the college ranks since Dallas coach Jimmy Johnson?  Maybe.  And that makes for great copy.  But, you could argue that while NFL-lifers Mike Zimmer and Bruce Arians are hard to write 2,500-word think-pieces on, they may be just as good at coaching football as Kelly.  Which, of course, is the actual goal for those men.
One of them might be coaching in the Pac-12 or commentating on television by the year 2018.  It will be interesting to find out which one of these coaches are the latest fad and who will be running the league like Pete Carroll in 3 more seasons.
As Blackie Sherrod would say, "Clip and Save" this blog entry.