Friday, July 10, 2015

2014 Pass Rush Report - Weeks 5-8



NS_14cowstitans48
Tennessee Titans prepare to snap the ball as Dallas Cowboys defensive tackle Nick Hayden (96) and teammates fire off the line of scrimmage on a point after touchdown attempt during the second half of play at LP Field in Nashville on Sunday, September 14, 2014. Dallas Cowboys defeated the Tennessee Titans 26-10. (Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News)
Perhaps the top priority of the Cowboys this offseason was to improve their pass rush.  This, of course, can materialize in a number of ways, but dumping investment in to the defensive side of the roster has been the focus of the organization since it last played a meaningful game.
As we know, the Cowboys have taken several very impressive steps in that direction.  The signing of Greg Hardy was certainly controversial, but there is no question that after studying his work in 2013 - which you can read here if you missed it back in March - that he is the best pass rusher this organization has seen since DeMarcus Ware was in his prime.  We still don't know how many games he will play with the Cowboys this year, but when he does step on the field, there is every reason to believe that you will see a monster coming off the line and causing damage.
Then, they were able to get Randy Gregory in the draft late in the 2nd round.  The Cowboys had him as a Top 5 talent in this draft, but were reluctant to sign up to deal with his issues in Round 1 when they had a better option.  But, at pick #60, they were beside themselves to cement the 1-year Hardy signing with a young, impressive player that might be able to be a major 10-sack threat starting in 2016 - provided he can keep on the right path.
Then, the 2nd round pick from 2014, DeMarcus Lawrence is also a player who first stepped on the field in Week 9 against Arizona.  He played 233 snaps in the regular season - 8th most amongst Cowboys' DL - due to a foot injury in training camp.  He did not make major impressions until the post-season when he was able to account for a sack in each playoff game.
So, as we examine the pass rush of 2014, we are going to identify the issue that the Cowboys were facing, knowing that they have already addressed it.
That issue is that the Cowboys - more than almost any team in football - were trying to rush the passer in 2014 without a lead dog.  The elite pass rusher is as important as a lead wide receiver is to your passing attack.  Either you have a special player that requires special attention to a unit or you don't.  And if you don't, then your defense lacks real teeth.  From there, you either have to try to trick with scheme, address the issue with more troops (which means less in coverage), or hope.  And, honestly, the team tried a little of all of that in 2014.
So much of a pass rush requires a lead guy.  A guy who can beat his man consistently enough that offenses take that away with double teams.  Then, the double team provides massive opportunity for others and it all works in concert.  But, without a lead dog, you are without a major pass rush.  And as we said last week, the team required 21 pass attempts for every sack, which is some of the worse production in the NFL.
Here is how the concept of "lead dog" looks on a chart.  If you took the last 25 Cowboys seasons and just charted the sack total of your sack leader, you can see clearly when the Cowboys had a #1 rusher and when they did not.
Sack Leader
From 2006-2012, DeMarcus Ware was the sack leader each year.  You can see above how clearly he showed his quality and paved his way to Canton.  Amazingly, he has many local critics who wanted more from him, but I believe that was mostly from overall franchise frustration.  His pass rush production takes a back-seat to almost nobody in this era or in the history of this franchise.  Also, notice the Charles Haley era back in the dynasty time where - along with the under-rated Tony Tolbert, the Cowboys could always put pressure on the opposing QB.
But, beyond that, we can see that in 25 years, the Cowboys never had the 10-sack production from their sack leader.  And in general, if you don't have a sack leader who scares anyone, you don't have a pass rush that does, either.  Haley did it twice, Ware did it seven times, Tolbert once, and Jason Hatcher careered in 2013 (thanks to Ware, in part) as well.  And that is it.  We throw the term "10-sack guy" around like it is a normal accomplishment in the NFL.  The Cowboys show us it is not.  Jeremy Mincey led the Cowboys in 2014 with 6.  16 teams - half the NFL - did not have a "10-sack guy" in 2014.
But, now, with Hardy (who has already been past 10 sacks twice), Gregory, and Lawrence, the hope is that the Cowboys have 3 guys who each might get to 10-sacks in a season, sometime in the very near future for Dallas.
That is the hope.
Now, on to part 2 of our 5 part series, studying the Cowboys sacks from last year.  This week we cover October (Weeks 5-8) and games against Houston, Seattle, New York, and Washington.  Unfortunately, there were 2 games in which they had 0 sacks at all - Houston and New York.  So here are the 5 they did get:
First a disclaimer:  The analysis below is not meant to be exhaustive for each play.  There is context that could require massive write-ups on each sack, but in the interest of time, let’s do this short and sweet.  I will try to identify the nuts and bolts on each sack, but sometimes, it will be a guess as we do not know specific calls.  We are trying to get this right, but invariably, some of you will see the same play and reach a different conclusion.  Cool? 
Sack #6
SackOppQ/TimeD/D/YdRushSack
#6SEA1/12:302/9/335TEAM SACK
So, in Part 1 of this series, we showed you the 5 sacks from September and you noticed that one of them was a Saints botched punt-fake that went for a sack.  This one is even cheaper, as Russell Wilson is running with the ball (with nothing but open field in front of him) when he knocks the ball out of his own hands with his thigh.  This goes down as an official sack, believe it or not.  It is credited as a "Team Sack" and the ball goes back to where he knocked it loose.  But, there is literally, nothing for us to see here, save for 92-Mincey at least flushing Wilson out by swimming inside the LT 76-Okung.  But, from there, it looks like Mincey was supposed to have "contain" and that Wilson might have gained 25 yards here if luck did not save the day.
Sack #7
SackOppQ/TimeD/D/YdRushSack
#7SEA1/0:433/12/45499-Selvie
This one is legitimate,  with the front 4 looking just like it should.  In a 4 vs 5 pass rush, the two inside DTs 69-Henry Melton and 98-Tyrone Crawford are threatening enough to draw G-C-G attention.  This, gives each edge guy a 1-on-1 trip to the backfield.  93-Anthony Spencer on the far left and 99-George Selvie on the far right.  As you can see, Spencer gets around the RT 68-Britt and flushes Wilson into the waiting arms of Selvie and Crawford.  They gave Selvie the sack here, one of only 3 he would have in 2014, but this is an example of what a 4-man rush should be able to do.  Then, with 7 in coverage, the Cowboys can zone up and make Wilson hold the ball longer, which allows the rush to get there.  Good stuff.  We just didn't see it often enough.
Sack #8
SackOppQ/TimeD/D/YdRushSack
#8WAS2/9:413/13/41469-Melton
Here is a play early in the Redskins game where they tried that QB rollout right, off a zone run fake to the left.  It isn't technically "naked", as they asked 12-Andre Roberts to get in 99-George Selvie's way, but Roberts weighs 195.  Here, you can see Selvie's best attribute - he runs plays down really well for a DE.  Colt McCoy quickly sees he isn't out-running Selvie, so he puts on the brakes, and tries to cut inside and that is where Rolando McClain and eventually Henry Melton are there to clean up the mess.  As we do the study, you can see that in many sack situations, the guy who gets credit for the sack is not the guy doing most of the work.  Melton is rewarded for running down the play, though, as the run fake put him on the opposite numbers and he chased all the way across the field to get involved.
Sack #9
SackOppQ/TimeD/D/YdRushSack
#9WAS4/6:071/10/42469-Melton
Now, this is just the opposite of what we showed on the last sack.  This is Melton just whipping the Redskins RG 66-Chris Chester.  Melton is just too quick on the inside for Chester off the snap and fires through the B-Gap to get home and get a nice sack.  Now, you can see in the pre-snap that the Cowboys are "sugaring" a blitz from all 3 of their shallow zone guys in the nickel defense, 32-Scandrick, 55-McClain, and 52-Durant.  This gets Washington to account for them and that distraction might have been enough to present Melton with his initial daylight off the snap.  The threat of a blitz is sometimes just as valuable as a blitz itself.  The only issue is that those guys have to turn and drop very quickly when the ball is snapped so they aren't exposed underneath by a quick throw.  Plays like this make me wish we had another year of Melton here.  I don't fully grasp why he was not an option to stay since the offer from Tampa was so small (1-year, $3.75m, with only $1m guaranteed).  He is only 28 and it isn't like there is great depth at DT.
Sack #10
SackOppQ/TimeD/D/YdRushSack
#10WAS4/2:163/10/37492-Mincey
Finally, this is one of the most "clutch" sacks of the season.  It is 17-17, the Redskins face a 3rd and long.  Tony Romo is up and ready (we thought at the time) to return to win the game.  If the Cowboys can get a stop, this could be a massive moment.  Now, watch 92-Mincey against the great Redskins LT, 71-Trent Williams.  Behold, the only sack Williams gave up in the first 12 Washington games of the season.  Look at Mincey walk him back, discard him, and close down the QB all by himself.  It is one thing to do this, but it is quite another to do this 58 minutes into a tie game and to get a massive stop for your team.  That was Mincey's signature moment in 2014 for me.
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At the halfway point of 2014, the Cowboys had just 10 sacks in 8 games.  Luckily, in the 2nd half of the season, they would have 18 more.  We begin studying those next week, with a look at Weeks 9-12 and games against Arizona, Jacksonville, New York, and Thanksgiving Day with the Eagles.

Tuesday, July 07, 2015

The Amazing TD-filled 2014 of Dez Bryant



Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant (88) talks to the TV camera during the Dallas Cowboys vs. the New York Giants NFL football game at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday, November 23, 2014.
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant (88) talks to the TV camera during the Dallas Cowboys vs. the New York Giants NFL football game at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday, November 23, 2014.
The following is the list of every Dallas Cowboy to ever catch more than 10 Touchdowns in a single season.  There are 11 such seasons sorted by TDs:
NameYearCatchesYardsTDs
Dez Bryant201488132016
Terrell Owens200781135515
Frank Clarke196247104314
Dez Bryant201393123313
Terrell Owens200685118013
Bob Hayes196664123213
Dez Bryant201292138212
Bob Hayes196546100312
Lance Rentzel19694396012
Miles Austin200981132011
Laurent Robinson20115485811
It may strike you as interesting that maybe the two most famous wide outs in the history of the club never got there.  Michael Irvin did catch 10 in 1995, but never eclipsed that, and Drew Pearson's high was 8 a few different times.  Of course, it may also strike you that 7 of the 11 most prolific seasons in team history happened in the last decade.  Either that says something about Tony Romo or the current NFL era we live in.  Or both.
Meanwhile, Bob Hayes and Terrell Owens appear on this list twice. But, only one player has been on this list 3 times - and that, of course, is the one and only Dez Bryant - at the age of 26 and only after 5 seasons in the NFL.  He also has a fourth season with 9 TDs.  He is simply and easily on his way to being the most dominating WR in the history of the franchise.
There is certainly more to being a WR than scoring touchdowns, but I doubt many people need to argue that Dez could improve in those departments.  His game is complete and his rough edges have all been smoothed over.  There may be a few receivers in his class in the NFL these days, but make no mistake, that list can easily fit on one hand.
The Cowboys are going to extend him soon (or they are crazy) and I expect he will likely play most if not all of his career with a star on his helmet.  The exercise today was to rate and debate his best touchdowns of his record breaking season.  I have looked at all 16 and admit that his most famous moment is not on this list (in Green Bay) and should be, but let's consider the 16 official touchdowns of 2014 and pick out the best 5.  Then, you can vote your favorite.
He is, by my estimation, the best player on the franchise presently and right in the prime of his career.  In other words, there is no chance I would question paying him the going rate for a player of his caliber.  So let's pick a winner - the best TD of Dez's 2014:
First, HONORABLE MENTIONS.  These, according to my very subjective eye are worthy of mention, but not worthy of the final 5.  Again, this is a subjective game:
The back shoulder fade against the Texans where the rookie Andre Hal was not prepared for the go-to move on the goal-line.  It really looks like he is going against a high school DB here.
One of many Bradley Fletcher moments where the Eagles think a safety is not required against 88.  You do not press Dez Bryant with no help up top.  Of course, Fletcher is not really in press.  He is not really doing anything with conviction.  Corners are terrified to try anything too aggressive and Dez still runs right by them. 

Perhaps this should have been a finalist.  This is just crazy how easy he makes this look.  Fletcher is just demoralized.  Look at the strength and the hands and the casual posture after the catch like he wasn't even strained.  
This demonstrates what Tony Romo is doing.  He doesn't even look at Redskins CB David Amerson.  He simply sees no safety and throws it.  He doesn't even consider the idea that the corner might win.  Then, Dez gets both feet in.  This required a review, but it was a TD.

Look at the speed this man has.  He is too fast and too strong.  Unfair.  When you blitz the Cowboys, you risk this easy read and burned hands.  I was asked how the Cowboys shut down the Redskins blitz in the 2nd meeting.  You are looking at it.  Make them pay.
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The FINALISTS
Candidate #1. The Dominating Jump Ball versus the Colts and Greg Toler.
Toler is 6'0 and generally considered an athletic corner.  He decides he is going to try to get both hands on Dez but again, with no safety on the scene, Romo is just going to throw it to an area and know that Dez is going to treat a corner like this as a traffic cone and overwhelm him with power and then size.  The ease with which he goes up to win these contested battles is just fantastic and rare.  He never seems to lose these jump balls.
Candidate #2.  Underneath throw in London, Bryant beats 7 Jaguars to the goal-line.
You might recall this play from London when in the pregame shows we were hearing about a blown curfew by Bryant.  I mention that because it sure seemed like he had an extra gear that day and this one, from a bunch formation where Dez runs a shallow cross and actually catches the ball behind the line of scrimmage, out-runs the fast safety Jonathan Cyprien to the corner and then just refuses to be denied the end-zone.  It might be his best work of 2014.
Candidate #3.  The Game Winner In New York.
The final minute of the game in New York in November, where the Cowboys needed to put a TD drive together.  This was an amazing play by several players - witness Tyron Smith at LT at Jason Pierre-Paul.  Romo had nearly 10 seconds to throw it and places a perfect ball into the corner of the end-zone where Bryant worked his way open from the left slot against Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie.  This catch is not as good as several others, most likely, but the importance of this TD requires its consideration.
Candidate #4.  Bryant refuses to be tackled against Washington

I never get tired of this TD catch by Dez.  He catches the ball right off the turf at about the 8-yard line.  David Amerson has no chance with his arm tackle and Ryan Clark has Dez around the waist at the 4-yard line.  Despite this, Dez is not going down.  A masterpiece of will which in a nut-shell demonstrates what Bryant is all about as a player.  Relentless.
Candidate #5.  Deep shot in London
Again, against Jacksonville, Dez decided to again show that he is too much for any one guy to pull down.  Romo holds the safety as he is so good at doing with Witten drawing attention underneath so Dez goes on the "Go".  Again, the corner underneath chooses to try to get hands on Dez, which we almost never see work out for that corner (in this case, Dwayne Gratz) and then Jonathan Cyprien must attempt to wrestle him down at the 10, which means Dez pulls him into the end zone.
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So, there you have it.  I realize we will not reach a consensus on which one is the finest, but if you want my vote - Give me #2 as the best and #4 as my runner-up.  Now you can vote, too.
But, for me, this simply verifies my feelings all along as we circle back to his long-term extension - as best portrayed in the movie Rounders:
"Pay that man his money."

Wednesday, July 01, 2015

2014 Pass Rush Report - Weeks 1-4


Dallas Cowboys defensive tackle Henry Melton (69) sacks New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) in the fourth quarter during the second half of play in the New Orleans Saints vs. the Dallas Cowboys NFL football game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on Sunday, September 28, 2014.  (Louis DeLuca/The Dallas Morning News)
Dallas Cowboys defensive tackle Henry Melton (69) sacks New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) in the fourth quarter during the second half of play in the New Orleans Saints vs. the Dallas Cowboys NFL football game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on Sunday, September 28, 2014. (Louis DeLuca/The Dallas Morning News)
On to the next of my summer projects today, where we start a series on the Cowboys pass rush.  Last month, we studied the pass protection of the Cowboys and found plenty of good things and a few things that needed improvement to put this talented OL on the next level of performance in 2015 as they seek a Super Bowl.
But, that could be considered nit-picking, to be honest, these days.  The fact is, the Cowboys offensive line is on the fast-track to elite, and while they could do some things better, we must never forget that the talent is in the room.  If everyone there plays to their paper, the Cowboys OL is going to be a beautiful thing to behold over the next few years (health pending, of course).
Now, about the defensive line and where they are in the ranks of the NFL.  In 2013, the Cowboys dedicated themselves to moving from a 3-4 under Rob Ryan to a 4-3 of Monte Kiffin and Rod Marinelli.  Since then, the Cowboys have also committed to much less blitzing and a much more populated secondary to attempt to limit the big plays over the top.  But, that trade comes at a cost, and the cost is that they have been limited to 62 sacks in the 32 regular season games (1.94 sacks/game).  This ranks 29th in the league, as only the Chargers (61), Raiders (60), and Falcons (54) have fewer sacks.  The league average is about 78 over 2 seasons and the league leader is the amazing front of the Buffalo Bills who have an absurd 111 sacks in 32 games (3.47 sacks/game).
Here is a chart showing the annual sack output by the Cowboys since 2008 - which happens to be the year they led the NFL in sacks by averaging 3.69 sacks/game:
Sacks By Year

Now, in 2008, you had DeMarcus Ware in his prime, Jay Ratliff in his prime, Greg Ellis, and a host of butt-kickers all here at the same time.  Schemes don't often get sacks, pass rushers do.  Since then (When Ellis left), the Cowboys hovered around league average +/- 5 sacks in either direction for the next 5 years.  But, since 2010 (Wade Phillips' exit year, not coincidently), the Cowboys have been a below-average pass rush team 4 of 5 years.
Judging sacks on pure numbers is not a perfect idea, by any stretch.  But, in a passing league, we should also not shake off results like that.  You can see the Cowboys know this, based on their expenditures to bring in pass rushers in bulk in the last 2 offseasons.  They are trying to fix this situation post-haste.
In NFL circles, they don't add up the sacks.  They want to know the attempts/sack as a more true metric of pass rush success.  How many passes do we need to get a sack?  This equalizes the idea that teams get sacks because the other team is behind and is passing constantly.  If we use the below chart, it evens that out:
Pass Attempts Per Sack
The league average for the above chart is 1 sack for every 15.7 attempts.  Buffalo needed 11 passes for every sack this year.  The Cowboys in 2008 only needed 9.6 attempts.  But this year, the Cowboys were at almost 21 passes per sack.
By spending picks on DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory in consecutive years and then signing Greg Hardy from Carolina, the Cowboys have tried to solve this issue the same way they fixed the offensive line - with a massive infusion of talent.  We look forward to what these very promising edge guys might do in 2015 if all goes according to plan.
The objective is to "get there with 4".  The Giants rode this to a Super Bowl or two.  Effective and intimidating pass rush without needing to compromise your coverage plans by bringing too many rushers to get home.  Today's NFL with QBs who pick apart blitzes requires a defense who can scare you up front.
So, for the next several weeks, we will grab 4 games a week and examine the 2014 Cowboys from a pass rush standpoint.  In the first month of 2014, the Cowboys had 5 sacks - here they are.
First a disclaimer:  The analysis below is not meant to be exhaustive for each play.  There is context that could require massive write-ups on each sack, but in the interest of time, let’s do this short and sweet.  I will try to identify the nuts and bolts on each sack, but sometimes, it will be a guess as we do not know specific calls.  We are trying to get this right, but invariably, some of you will see the same play and reach a different conclusion.  Cool? 
Sack #1
SackOppQ/TimeD/D/YdRushSack
#1SF2/8:062/11/33654-Carter
Mike Iupati is one of the best left guards in the game and was signed by the Arizona Cardinals in free agency this year.  But, on this play, I am confused what big #77 is doing for the 49ers as they want to take a run-heavy formation and then run play-action out of it.  The Cowboys look like they are in a run-blitz, but with 6 defenders up, they all just keep trying to get to Colin Kaepernick.  What is weird is what happens next.  They pull Iupati right to sell the play-action.  In this concept, he is actually just now taking the role of the RT in pass-protection.  Often, this really fools the defense.  But, here, Iupati runs right by Bruce Carter and goes to help 21-Frank Gore deal with 26-Sterling Moore.  Odd, and Carter just shoots that gap and takes a sack against Kaepernick on an otherwise horrid day.  The 49ers had everyone accounted for, just a mental bust from Iupati there.
Sack #2
SackOppQ/TimeD/D/YdRushSack
#2TENN2/0:532/10/13451-Wilber/ 69-Melton
Above, the Cowboys get a sack before halftime in Nashville with the ideal 4-man rush against 5 OL.  This is the nickel pass rush in a nutshell.  Put two threats at DT who can each rush, line them up on the outside shoulder of the guard and make the center choose which way he is going to try to help.  Whichever he chooses, the other side gets 2 on 2 in space.  In this spot, Melton is up on LG 67-Andy Levitre and Kyle Wilber has LT 71-Michael Roos.  You may not know this, but Wilber can really rush the passer.  Maybe the 2014 version of Victor Butler as a guy that can move the needle big time with a nice edge move, but cannot do enough things to be a regular in the defense.  Here, Melton and Wilber both get wins, and when Locker doesn't get the ball out, they meet at the QB for a half-sack each.  Nice job here by the front 4 getting home.  They just didn't do this enough.

Sack #3
SackOppQ/TimeD/D/YdRushSack
#3TENN3/11:453/12/29455 - McClain
This sack is certainly helped by Locker facing a 3rd and long and getting caught looking down at the pass rush.  But, from a Cowboys standpoint, look at the Tackle-End stunt where the tackles drive outside the guard and try to pick off the tackle, allowing the Ends to dive inside and try to get home that route.  But, the Titans switch pretty well and are ok until their QB is paralyzed.  Now, watch Rolando McClain who ends up with the sack.  He drops into a zone and then mirrors Locker all the way to the end and really shows impressive quickness to close in on his prey.  McClain did that wonderfully for what amount to a coverage sack.  They only rushed 4, but the 5th man actually picked up the sack after the play broke down.
Sack #4
SackOppQ/TimeD/D/YdRushSack
#4NO4/7:454/9/41NA58 - J Crawford
I don't really know that we can learn much from this one.  The Cowboys were up huge, the Saints cut it to 31-17 and then telegraphed a fake punt that nobody was remotely fooled by, and eventually they hunted down Saints punter Thomas Morstead with Tyrone Crawford tracking him down and Jack Crawford cleaning up for the "sack".  They all count, but this one is not going to fool anyone into learning much about the pass rush techniques.
Sack #5
SackOppQ/TimeD/D/YdRushSack
#5NO4/2:131/10/48469 - Melton

As you can see, at this point of the year, Henry Melton was doing some really impressive things.  Here, he is going right around the once-great, now declining Jahri Evans in the phone booth as Jack Crawford goes by big RT 64-Zach Strief on the edge.  Again, 4 against 5, and the center goes in the other direction to help against Nick Hayden (for some reason, the Saints thought that was a good idea).  This allowed Melton to get home and look the part as a weapon moving forward.  Love his arm swipe to get Evans' hands off of him and just turn the corner inside.
So those are the 5 sacks of the first month where the Cowboys had very little pass rush, but with D Lawrence out with an injury, they were trying to scramble and get what they could.  Next week, we will look at Weeks 5-8 against Houston, Seattle, New York, and Washington.