X's and O's Breakdown - The OT Screen

In the words of the late, great Michael Hutchence, "Sometimes you kick, sometimes you get kicked."

Blitzing, and more specifically, fire zone blitzing is a staple of the Rob Ryan defense. We have discussed this at some length in past entries, but usually it is when it works to perfection - such as the study we did when he had Buffalo all confused a few weeks ago.

But, of course, sometimes when you blitz, the other team has figured you out from their film study or they just lucked into a perfect call at a perfect moment. Regardless of how the Cardinals walked the Cowboys right into a trap on the final play of Sunday's game, the truth is on the film for all to see.

Larod Stephens-Howling is known as the "hyphen" in Arizona, and surely is one of those water-bug types that if they can get into the open field, the opponent is going to have a hard time containing him and bringing him down. Another note worth considering is that the Cardinals have a notoriously difficult time executing screen plays. Perhaps that is why the Cowboys felt that this was not going to be a major issue entering the action on Sunday.

The Cardinals are on the 1st Drive of OT, and are facing a 1st and 15 after a penalty. The Cowboys scheme for fire zones vary, but just know that it means the Cowboys are overloading their blitz to one side of the field, while the weakside edge LB will drop into a zone instead of rushing. In this case, that LB is DeMarcus Ware, and the normal genius of such a concept is that the opponent has 2 guys assigned to block #94. So, the premise is simple: Blitz more guys from one side than can be blocked, and rush almost nobody from the other-side which leaves the LT and sometimes LG just standing there with nobody to block.

From the Cardinals standpoint, if they can somehow have a play on that attacks the blitz side, it can go for miles (which it did). If they call the screen to the opposite side, Ware will be standing there and ready to devour the play as he will be unblocked.

Look at the diagram of how the Cowboys defense is to deploy in this situation:



And here is how it looked in presnap from the same view from the coaches film:



The Cowboys are trying to drop 2 LBs (94 and 56) into the shallow zones on either side. Of course, Bradie James is highlighted in green on the diagram (and is standing on the Cardinals logo on the film) because it is rather clear that he busts on this play and gets "caught up in the wash" as he tries to get out wide to the side that the play is about to go. Let's credit #70-Rex Hadnot for getting a very impressive hold on James that keeps Bradie from getting to where he is supposed to go on this play. Also, we should perhaps blame Bradie for attempting to get too cute as he tries to give the impression that he is blitzing for a split second too long. The concept is for Bradie to occupy a blocker with his first step or two, but he has to bail before anyone can get their mitts on him because he has that entire half of the field on the defensive left. It is going to be a long run with no contact, but once Hadnot touches him, this play is doomed. With Sensabaugh and Newman in man coverage, they will have their backs to the play for most of the play, so this is Bradie's play or likely nobody.

We can certainly question the Cowboys thinking their slowest LB could beat the "hyphen" to the edge, but they tried it and the picture below will attest to the fact that the result was ugly:



Sean Lee is a very fast inside LB, but at 4.6, he is no match for a 4.35 guy like Stephens-Howling. Lee diagnoses the play and peels off as fast as he can (and is actually quicker to get there than James), but he will not be able to run him down from behind.

The Cardinals do not even attempt to block Anthony Spencer which is either a horrible decision if Spencer can grab Kevin Kolb or a brilliant one if Kolb can slip past 93 long enough to dump the ball off to hyphen in space. It works like a charm. This demonstrates why mobility for a QB has almost nothing to do with "straight-line" speed and more to do with understanding how a side step can buy you another few tenths of a second.

From the time of the catch, the play is doomed. The Cowboys only real hope is that Terence Newman can get around Andre Roberts to bring down Stephens-Howling near the 45. Once Newman is dealt with quite easily, it becomes a comedy of missed tackles and less-than-inspired efforts to bring him down inside the 20 which speaks to the knowledge that the game is already lost once the play goes deep inside FG range.

Is it a horrible call from Rob Ryan? This is the nature of all of football. Call a blitz on 1st Down when few would expect it is a great idea when it works (a sack is a drive ender if the Cardinals are looking at a 2nd and 22)- and a horrible plan when it fails. Asking Bradie James to get to the flank in time against Stephens-Howling sounds like a very poor plan, unless you are playing the odds that the Cardinals hadn't used him hardly all day long. One does wonder how a speedy inside LB like Bruce Carter would do in the same situation, but that clearly isn't close to happening as Carter has not exactly forced his way onto the field yet (11 snaps against Seattle, 13 against Buffalo, 0 at Washington, 0 vs Miami, 0 at Arizona).

So, perfect call against your blitz or reckless play call from Rob Ryan? It is a results-based business, so in this case, Ryan was caught with his hand in the cookie jar and his players were unable to bail him out.

Decoding Garrett - Week 12 - Data - At Arizona

In the great basketball movie, "Hoosiers", Coach Norman Dale walked his team of under-dogs into the gigantic field house where the state tournament was going to be held and showed his team how everything might seem bigger, but it is all the same. He measured the height of the basket (10 feet) and the distance to the free throw line (15 feet). Same as in the gym where they play back in Hickory.

I wonder if Jason Garrett has ever seen Hoosiers. Because when you watch his offense over the course of many years now, or in particular his team since he has taken over as coach, you can see a very distinct difference in the way his team operates offensively when they leave their home stadium.

Now, we should concede that the list of home opponents (Washington, Detroit, St Louis, Seattle, Buffalo, and Miami) seems to be a substantial downgrade from the road opponents (New York Jets, San Francisco, New England, Philadelphia, Washington and Arizona) to explain some variations in performance. However, the differences between the home and road game plans are so drastic and frankly, predictable, that one certainly has room to wonder if the Cowboys attempt to call two different game plans.

At home, they are aggressive and determined. Run and pass splits are nearly identical. They often make their opponents choose their poison and then serve it up on a platter. It may not always work, but they are adventurous and creative in the way they go about their business. They will try even trick plays, they will pass when you think run, they will pound the ball until you can stop it, and they have a swagger.

On the road, they are timid. They are easily chased off their objectives. They abandon the run early and often. They put everything on their QB and his ability to make lemonade out of lemons. They seem to call plays in an effort to prevent disasters rather than to attack. They send a message to the troops that they are not sure if they can score points, so they often don't.

And this pattern has been in place for quite a while. Nobody is saying they never bring their home personality on the road, because they do. And sometimes, their road personality shows up in Arlington, too. But, if you look at the large sample under the play-calling of Jason Garrett, it is clear that there is a split in objectives and intentions between home games and road games.

Let's look at some evidence.

The best way a play caller can send a message to his opponent is by calling plays on 1st Down. It establishes the tone and attitude of the offense and declares to the opponent what is planned for the day.

But, when the Cowboys have been at home this season, on 1st and 10, the Cowboys have run 177 plays. The splits for those 177 snaps to start a play sequence has been 98 runs and 79 passes. The 55%/45% split demonstrates proper balance for a balanced offense. On 1st Down, you run the ball more because on 3rd Down, you almost never run. But as a whole, 55% runs on 1st Down will mean that your overall balance will be intact.

Conversely, when the Cowboys have played their 6 games on the road, they have had 172 1st and 10 situations. The splits on 1st Down when they have been on the road has seen just 68 runs and 104 passes. This 39%/61% split on 1st and 10 sets the Cowboys up for days where they never get anything done on the ground and become a 1-dimensional team. We have even heard explanations about the opponent putting an eighth man in the box to encourage the Cowboys to start slinging the ball around the yard.

Given that almost all of the road games have been very tight games and given that we are only looking at 1st and 10, we must ask why the Cowboys can be 55% run at home and 39% run on the road? We understand throwing the ball on 3rd and 12, but why does this team not allow its running game to attempt to find its footing on the road?

And what are the by-products of becoming 1-dimensional and ultra predictable on the road? Let's look at how teams counter the Cowboys when they have chased Dallas out of running plays. The Dallas Cowboys allow the fewest sacks in the NFL in home games. In 203 pass plays at home, Tony Romo has been sacked 5 times or once every 40.6 pass plays.

On the road, the Cowboys have allowed 20 sacks in 6 games (5th worst in the NFL). These 20 sacks have occurred over 254 pass plays for an average of 1 sack every 12.7 pass plays. It seems rather clear that not having balance is making the Cowboys far easier to blitz. And the blitzing beats up your QB and over-runs your offensive line.

Here is evidence that Romo might be playing his best football of his career. In those 6 road games where he has been under siege throughout the game because of the pass rush, Romo has easily the best passer rating of any QB in the league who is getting sacked 3 times a game or more on the road. His rating of 94.1 on the road this season while being sacked so often is off the charts. Only Alex Smith in San Francisco is coming close with a rating of 85.9. You just wonder what they would do if the Cowboys would bring their home game plan on the road with them.

Run the ball, take the steam out of the pass rush. Don't run the ball, invite the blitz. This is very basic football, but the Cowboys consistently do this to themselves on the road. In fact, if you take Sunday's game plan and compare it with the exact game plan from the New England game, you will find that they treated their play calling in the exact same way. The similarities are uncanny.

Data from Week 12 at Arizona

Run-Pass	20-47
1st Down Run-Pass	9-21
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	8.44
2nd Down Run-Pass	9-16
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	6.66
3rd Down Run-Pass	2-10
3rd Down Conversions	4-12, 33%

HTML Tables

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

Notice that 3 1st Down runs are the lowest of the season. The Cowboys started their first 2 drives on Sunday with runs (both 7 yard gains) and then on the final 9 drives, they passed on 1st down 8 times. It is rather befuddling.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 12-At Arizona - 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Total: 136 Drives - 58 Run/78 Pass 42% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Here, please note the inefficiency of "S12" where they run their shotgun package with 2 TEs. it is clearly not working well, especially on 3rd down where the Cardinals blitzed the house when the Cowboys tried to put Phillips on the field.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	2	1-2	0-0
12	19	124	5-20	14-104
13	7	16	4-7	3-9
21	3	38	2-14	1-24
22	8	41	6-18	2-23
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	3	42	0-0	3-42
S11	19	70	1-3	18-67
S12	7	-6	1-8	6--14
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	67	327	20-72	47-255

Table Tutorial

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	1	2	1-2	0-0	1/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	1	0	0-0	1-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	2	15	0-0	2-15	1/0
S11	5	7	1-3	4-4	2/0
S12	3	-7	0-0	3--7	0/0
Totals	12	17	2-5	10-12	4/0

Table Tutorial

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

Again, the similarities to the numbers from the timid game plan in New England is just amazing. They tried for the exact same game even though they were playing a 4-7 Arizona team.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58
Wk 12-Arz 29/67

Total - 304/762 39.9%


==================

Bottom line, the Cowboys have to prove that they are a threat on the road to make you pay. But, instead, they constantly enter the game seemingly content to play for a 16-13 game. They don't wish to change their ways, and now opponents have figured it out. It is time for the Cowboys to self-scout and realize what they are becoming on the road. A very predictable and an easy team to defend.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

The Morning After: Cardinals 19, Cowboys 13 (7-5)

Yesterday, the Cowboys lost a game they really could not afford to lose. They have been threatening to do this for the last 3 games, and finally their tempting of fate came due and they lost a game that they were heavily favored to win and one that could prove extremely costly when they attempt to enter the playoffs and avoid the most difficult road possible.

They lost a game that now takes them out of the driver's seat and makes all of the games in December just as stressful and vital as they could possibly be, despite much of the NFC trying to do the Cowboys every favor.

And one of the reasons for this defeat - not the only reason by a long-shot - was the way their coach seemed to lose the plot a bit down the stretch in the final moments of the contest.

Jason Garrett and his offense had just converted a very difficult 3rd and 11 when Tony Romo made yet another late-game play on a throw to Dez Bryant and set the Cowboys up at the Cardinals 31-yard line. As a point of reference, there was about :25 left in the game when Dez rose to his feet. The Cowboys owned 2 timeouts at this juncture, and despite that reality, the Cowboys did not stop the clock until Romo clocked the ball with :07 left.

The waste of 18 precious seconds made very little sense really. For one thing, their kicker, Dan Bailey, was having a rough afternoon. He had missed his first field goal in almost 3 months from the 36-yard line in the first Quarter going in the same direction. On that 53-yard kick, he clearly over-kicked with all of his might to get the ball there, revealing concerns about his range from that mid-30's spot on the field. However, the hold from Mat McBriar was certainly not precise and the distance on the kick was more than enough. But, Garrett's confidence appeared shaken. On the very next possession, the Cowboys were beneficiaries of a huge Felix Jones kick return and took the ball over at the Cardinals 35. Trouble is, they were unable to move the ball forward at all (including an odd decision on 3rd and 11 to throw the ball about 1-yard down-field, and when it became decision time, Garrett sent in his punter rather than allowing Bailey to try again from 52-yards.

Two drives later, the Cowboys had yet another drive stall, this time at the Cardinals 32. On this occasion (going the opposite direction at University of Phoenix Stadium), they ran Bailey out there and let him try again. And on this kick, Bailey converted on a 50-yard Field Goal, but barely as it required a friendly carom off the uprights and through.

So, to review, "No" from 53, "Don't try" from 52, and "Yes, but barely" from 50. So, why, from 49 yards do the Cowboys act as if it is a "gimme" and allow time for 2 to 3 more snaps to run off the clock in a game of massive importance? You would have to ask the coach.

Unfortunately, when you ask the coach, the answers are a bit unclear. He suggested that he was concerned about negative plays that might have backed the team out of FG range potentially, which certainly doesn't credit his veteran QB much after his late game heroics in the last few weeks. Fear for a negative play? That, frankly, is what troubles so many about the way the game plan is assembled in so many of these scenarios. Road games, especially against teams that you are favored to beat, tend to reveal game plans that are careful, conservative (1 yard throws on 3rd and 11), and makes the opponents' job so much easier. Attacking is minimized, and the Cowboys end up not attacking for most of the game. That is why they are needing OT to beat the Redskins. That is why they need all 60 minutes to beat the Dolphins by the skin of their teeth. And now, that is why they couldn't beat a Cardinals team led by Kevin Kolb - a guy who had not won a game since Week 1 - in 60 minutes off football. I do fully understand what makes Garrett feel this way as his offensive line is still quite offensive in their performance many weeks, but at some time you have to allow your best players to overcome the performances of the others.

And then, we get to the moment of truth. Dan Bailey lines up a 49-yarder for the win with :07 left. The retelling of the story in a more dramatic way as some have attempted that, "Bailey was in his backswing when the timeout was called" is silly. The whistle happened and then a full 2-count later the ball is snapped and Bailey does what anyone would do, and gets in a practice kick that he makes with ease. But, let us not confuse this with irrefutable evidence that he would have made this kick. There was no rush and frankly no pressure once he heard that whistle.

The reasoning for the timeout in this situation is at least plausible. While it seems hard to understand why the 40-second play clock was running out after a spiked play and a field goal team that appeared ready to go do its job is irrelevant. If the play clock was down to :07 as Garrett said after the game, then I don't mind him calling a timeout to reset everything. Again, it sounds way better to say he is "icing his own kicker" in the papers, but the reality is that a frantic kick with an expiring play clock is less appealing than a calm kick from the same spot.

Of course, the kick was short and the Cowboys never touched the ball again. In overtime, the offense watched as the defense surrendered an 80-yard drive in which they never forced a 3rd Down. The final play was a brilliantly executed screen right into a Rob Ryan fire-zone blitz. It was a perfect call and a touchdown that rocked the Cowboys season. Yet another gutting loss in Glendale.

But, to me, this demonstrates a problem that I have felt has been in place since Jason Garrett was hired last November. The job of head coach is one that I believe fits him well. However, the job of Head Coach on top of his prior post of offensive coordinator is too big in my opinion for most in the early portion of their coaching career.

Very few people know how many decisions a head coach must make in 3 hours. I imagine, only those who have done it would know for sure. Now, add in a couple hundred more decisions that any offensive coordinator must make and put them all inside the head of one human. Surely, it must make someone feel like the most important human in the world to make all of those decisions for the Dallas Cowboys. But, every time I see a challenge call that should have been used, a timeout wasted, a 12-men on the field penalty, a needless delay of game (which happened about a minute earlier), or something else that proves curious (forgetting a key weapon for several possessions in a row) I always come back to feeling like Jason Garrett is trying to do too much.

Unlike many, I do believe he is the man for this job. I believe he is a leader of men and gets them to maximize their abilities and to never quit in any situation. I think Garrett, like Jimmy Johnson, may actually be a better head coach than a coordinator. But, decisions like the one he made yesterday, where he allows 18 seconds to drip off the clock when he needs 5 or 6 more yards to feel confident, make me arrive back at the spot where I have always believed the Cowboys would be better served to hire someone to call plays so that he can have a more clear vision of his head coaching post and make vital decisions at the moments they must be made.

Can certain people do both jobs? Perhaps. But, in this situation and with this team, I would suggest that Garrett could be a much better head coach if he wasn't trying to do both jobs at the same time. One of my first priorities for the off-season would be to bring in a proper play caller and allow Garrett to over-see and occasionally, to over-rule.

But, as it currently stands, it is too much on this one man's plate. The question will be whether or not he and Jerry Jones are willing to concede this.

Sometimes smart men can be exceedingly stubborn. Especially when they refuse to concede that they may have made a mistake.

Stars Blog: The rebuild back to Relevancy

An empty arena looks on as Dallas and Ottawa square off.

A morning scan of the ever-changing Western Conference in the NHL shows that once again those pesky Dallas Stars sit near the top of the conference and at least for the moment, the very top of the Pacific Division.

The margin is certainly noteworthy for those who predicted a 15th place finish in the Western Conference (Hello, Sports Illustrated), but it is also the morning of December 2. That day merely signifies that 25 games are down, and 57 remain in the race to end a 3 year playoff drought for the once proud franchise.

It would seem altogether absurd to jump to conclusions based on 2 months of hockey for the big picture or the cliched "grand scheme of things", but I do think we can draw some micro conclusions from the first 25. Let me try:

1) - It seems possible that the Stars have found a coach that can get them to either achieve their maximum performance level or maybe even overachieve.

Glen Gulutzan is the head coach of this team after being summoned to Dallas by Joe Nieuwendyk in June. He arrived as a coach that very few knew anything about. He likely met the main criteria for the job opening in that he did not have a very high salary requirement by coach's standards. IF Nieuwendyk had wanted to hire anyone in the league for this post, I am pretty sure he was handcuffed with the same financial restrictions that governed every other move he aspired to make in the last few years. But, whatever the method for finding a new coach was, the early results are quite interesting. The team is seeming to find a mode of play that suits them and their personnel. They seem to respond from losses quite well by throwing a solid effort out the next night. The team doesn't seem to concede results because they are down with injuries. These are all very important characteristics to compiling enough points to go to the 2nd season come April. Many coaches arrive as unknowns and some of them make themselves known throughout the league in time. Time will obviously be the judge of whether this is a sleight of hand trick or a foundation is being built for the long term, but so far, one has to be impressed with what he is done out of the gates.

2) - Despite the new ownership and the optimism of change, the city will require a lot more than that to rush back to the rink.

There are two types of sports cities. The first is one where you are the only show in town and because of this exclusivity you have on the minds and wallets of the citizens, you have their loyalty no matter what. The other type of city is the one we live in here in the Metroplex. It is a city of many teams and entertainment avenues and it turns into the survival of the fittest. The team that constructs the best group of talent and gets them to perform at a top level reaps the benefits of the support of the city. Better product means full arena. Full arena means greater profits. Profits can be turned back into the roster with new signings. And the new signings make more people interested in the team and the cycle continues as more people want to come see you play.

Unfortunately, the opposite is also true. If the city doesn't think you are trying to win, they lose interest. The more people that lose interest, the emptier your building is. The emptier your building is, the more money you lose. The more money you lose means less will be invested to improve the team. And the less you invest in your team causes fewer people to care how you play. And that is where the Stars are right now. There remains a circle of loyalists still plugged in, but the lion's share of the city's sports enthusiasts have moved on to other amusements. Last night, with a Thursday night affair with Ottawa, the announced crowd of just over 10,000 fans seemed extremely optimistic. The team is playing well, but very small patches of the city seem to notice. New ownership and management can turn this around, but it won't happen overnight.

3) - The roster is reasonably well fortified at many spots, not fortified at others.

Let's face it, when you have to hurry and sign a player before you get in trouble with the league for not spending enough money on your payroll to stay above the salary cap floor, then you are not going to be able to compare your roster with those who are finding ways to fit another play under the cap ceiling. It is simple economics and a stark reminder why different players earn different salaries - because better players get paid more money!

So, when you are spending to the floor and others spend to the ceiling, that roughly $15 million hurts you in two ways. Top shelf talent cannot be afforded - thus the loss of Brad Richards to the New York Rangers - and enough depth to overcome a rash of injuries is often the other way. To the Stars credit, they have lost a ton of talent in the last month, (Adam Burish, Alex Goligoski, Brenden Morrow, Kari Lehtonen, and Trevor Daley are all down right now) and yet they continue to achieve. They have many reasons to plummet in the standings presently, and yet they keep grinding out results. Their run of form in their last 6 games (4-1-1, 9 points) has been outstanding, including the Colorado and Ottawa games this week where they found wins without their franchise goaltender, 4 other regulars, and a power play that almost seems to conspire against them.

After they play the New York Islanders on Saturday, they leave on a huge 5-game roadtrip that includes California and New York. During that trip, they will not have Lehtonen between the pipes and many of the regulars will be touch-and-go. But, if they can somehow still be sitting near 1st place by Christmas, I have to believe new ownership will feel that this season is worth investing in. With the injured players returning (allowing the depth to make moves) I would then expect an aggressive approach to working the phones for the first time in the Nieuwendyk era.

And that aggressive move is when the city raises their collective eyebrows and head back to the building in masses. This won't happen overnight, but it can happen rather quickly. Just give the finicky Dallas sports fan something to believe in. The team needs to keep playing hard, and the return of the Stars to relevancy in their own city could happen this season.

Cowboys Mailbag 12/1/12

Today, we will dip into some emails after I unveil a new feature to my blogs here that I admit is awful experimental.

It is a "passing chart" based on where Tony Romo is going with his passes. I am not so interested in where the play ended, but rather where the pass was intended and completed. Blue passes are completions, red are incompletions, and purple are the two interceptions from Thanksgiving Day.

Ideally, this will tell us things on a week to week basis such as: Where Tony Romo has tendencies to throw the ball (right handed QBs tend to throw right far more often, but Romo may not be as bad as many). How aggressive the game plan was in a given game (often times we rate aggressive game plans on a raw number of pass plays. However, this is a bad idea since not all pass plays are created equal. In the Jason Garrett offense, he substitutes short passes for run plays when he has no faith in a run between the tackles as we saw in New England and Minnesota the last time the Cowboys were in both places). It will also show us where they were attacking and what a defense was conceding.

The yellow line is the line of scrimmage for each play. We attempt to mark the release point of Romo and the catch point of the receiver. Hypothetically, this will show us what throws Romo can make versus Kitna. It can also show us how they are using Dez Bryant if we make a chart for Bryant catches for the season (as we will do when the season ends).

Anyway, it is experimental, and Tim Krajewski deserves the credit for the actual building of my concept. We will continue to tweak as we go, but below, please find the first public appearance of the Romo passing chart. Feel free to offer feedback so we can get it right. And try to ignore the yard markers, as they are only a reference point rather than specific information on where the play was located. The yellow line is the line of scrimmage.

Romo versus Miami, Week 11. Blue=completions. Red=incompletions. Purple=interceptions.



OK, now, on to our email:

I really enjoy your articles on Cowboy’s Personnel. Great reading. Here’s my question.

At times the Cowboys have different personnel in their groupings, i.e. sometimes it’s Murray and sometimes Jones or Choice. Same with tight ends and receivers. How do they communicate these changes to the players in such a rapid fashion that the players get in and out on time?

Thanks
Dennis Dusek
La Vernia, Texas


Great question, Dennis. And it shows the complexities of how the NFL really operates. What he is asking is about specific players inside personnel packages. For instance, "12" personnel (1 RB, 2 TE) can mean Murray, Witten, and Bennett or it can mean Murray, Witten, and Phillips. To you the fan, this might not mean anything. But to a defense, they will treat each tight end differently in coverage ideas. They know that Bennett is a guy that could perhaps run by a linebacker (although we seldom see it - just imagine that he can), whereas Phillips is a player that you would not worry about shaking loose from a LB. Or, "21" personnel (2 RB and 1 TE) could mean Murray and Fiammetta or it could mean Murray and Jones. Well, a defense better understand that while Fiammetta is never going to do anything downfield, Felix Jones can take his man on a wheel route and turn it into a big play if you are not properly defending him.

The offense has sub packages in each personnel grouping on the sideline. Garrett will yell out "21" if it is standard "21", but "21 mini" if it is Jones and Murray. He will have different names for each group and that will identify which WRs or TEs he wants on the field. And this gives the defenses one more thing to worry about. Hope that helps.

========


Hey Bob,

I thought you would enjoy this one: Dallas is first in the league in sacking the QB on the road and last in the league in sacks at home. I am astounded by this stat. How in the heck is this Rob Ryan machine not generating sacks right here at home with the crowd on their side and all of the other advantages of a home game? It amazes me that no one has brought this up before (when I read this, I had a vivid image of Stafford sprinting out of the pocket to his right and throwing the ball away to avoid the sack. It felt like he did that about 10 times in the first half of that game--never took a sack).

roger light

Through 11 games, the Cowboys have 30 sacks. This places them in 7th place in the NFL in team sacks (Baltimore 1st, 38) and 4th in the NFC (Minnesota, Washington, and NY Giants have more). But, yes, quite oddly, they have 20 in 5 road games (1st in NFL), and just 10 in 6 home games (26th most). His email was sent before the Thanksgiving game, so the Cowboys are no longer in last place at home as they bagged 4 more against Matt Moore.

Why is this? That is a wonderful question. I do wonder about your theory that the crowd "is on their side" as I find the new stadium to be about as quiet a home stadium as there is around the league on game day. I certainly know they had the best intentions when they build the gigantic edifice, but I believe the high prices and the high comfort puts people in a slightly "upscale" frame of mind. Add to it the magnetic tv screen above the field and somehow the Cowboys have created a fan experience that seems to hypnotize their own fans into a docile state.

To compare it to a true home stadium sound advantage of a New Orleans or similar enclosed stadiums around the league seems a silly waste of time. That being said, the pass rush should not be that related to the sound when it comes to simply equaling the production on the road where they get no help whatsoever. To average 4 sacks per game on the road and less than 2 at home is a confusing number that may just be an example of sample sizes being so small. It is certainly worth keeping an eye on.

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I understand the well-documented impact of Tony Fiametta. I’d like to understand your thoughts on the impact of Miles Austin? In particular, upon Austin’s return, do you think they’ll reduce their use of “12” personnel because they’d rather have Austin, Robinson and Bryant on the field to stress the defense, or does the lack of a fullback still require them to use 2 tights? Or could they use more “02” personnel groupings to get the 3 wides out there, but then lose Murray on those plays?

I appreciate your coverage of the Cowboys … the most substantive coverage out there without all the “noise.”

Best regards,

Bill


Thanks, Bill. This is one that I would love to ask Garrett about. Many of the best offenses in the league use "11" personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, and 3 WR) as their standard offense. The Cowboys, since I have been charting them in 2008, have almost never used 11 personnel from under center. They do use it extensively on 3rd Downs and the 2-minute drill, but that is exclusively out of the shotgun. Of course, in this situation, the Cowboys run about 11% of the time, and that is almost always a play like a 3rd and long draw play where they are just trying to get a few yards for the punter.

Why do other teams love "11" personnel? Because, it forces the defense to play nickel (5 DBs) or dime (6 DBs) immediately on 1st and 10. And this then means that their running game has far more space because to run nickel, a defense has to take off a linebacker and replace him with a guy who doesn't weigh 200 pounds. The Cowboys have never liked this, and I have never honestly understood why. In 689 offensive snaps this season, they have run "11" personnel 13 plays total. They obviously don't believe in it, even though as you astutely point out, it seems the Cowboys have the perfect personnel for such a strategy. It may show us that although the OL is playing better, he just doesn't trust them yet. To play "11" as your base, you better believe that your OL can protect your QB. "11" will require plenty of "scat" protection, which means just your 5 OL protecting with no help from TE or RB. So, the answer might be that simple.

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Bob,

What in the wide world of sports were the Dolphins doing on that play in the 1st Quarter with the wacky formation? And how is that legal?

Thanks,

Ted

Ted, I am so happy you brought it up. This play is something I could study all day.



The play can be seen on video here and shows that the Dolphins were lining up a center and then 7 players to his right. Brandon Marshall goes in motion from the left sideline to the right and that leaves only Matt Moore and Reggie Bush in the backfield. By nature of the rules, the Dolphins are required to have 7 on the line (which they do) and each end is an eligible receiver. As I understand it that means that the Dolphins center is also an eligible receiver (I promise I have never seen that before). Here is another look at the formation:



It sure looks like the Cowboys just ignored the wacky formation and lined up the defense on the middle of the line and not the football. I wonder what happens if the Dolphins try to attack DeMarcus Ware with an eligible center, Reggie Bush, and Matt Moore? It seems the Cowboys are all shifted so far that if they can figure out a way to outflank Ware, this could be a big play to the weakside, but of course, that requires them to attack the most athletic player in the game.

Anyway, Sean Lee blew the play up, and the Dolphins never tried it again, but I was thoroughly fascinated.

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Bob-

The games that Fiametta have played are the games the Cowboys have run well. You and a lot of others have noticed that. But you've always spoken with great respect of Football Focus and Fiametta grades rather poorly with them. Thoughts?

JDRB

This is an excellent discussion to touch on. Fiammetta is a name that is getting a ton of play this season, and I feel that I am responsible for helping to get it started by talking about the great production of the run game and the offense when he is on the field.

But, is it all because of him? My friends at ProFootballFocus.com have him ranked as the 18th best FB out of 31 in the league. That is hardly great evidence that the Cowboys have an elite player here. But, I think it is possible that we are having two different discussions. Are the Cowboys playing better with him on the field? Yes. Is it precisely because of him? Maybe not. There are so many moving parts during a given football play that I think it would be absurd to say that any success out of "21" personnel can be linked back to one, largely anonymous player. However, there must be some connection because when John Phillips tries to be plugged in on many of the same plays, the plays are not as productive with everything else seeming to be the same. With Fiammetta, it is possible that the defenses are reacting differently. Perhaps they are more likely to sit on a run play and move a safety into the box, but with Phillips back there, they assume it could be a play action pass.

I would be careful to say all of this is because of Fiammetta. I would not lock him up to a long term extension because of our statistics that show the team runs best with him there. But, I also don't want to ignore the evidence. He seems very competent as a lead blocker. But, he is also not blocking 3 players at a time.

The best example of individual performance versus team performance is the play of a Left Tackle on a Pick 6. The play was a disaster and might have lost the game. But, the left tackle did his job perfectly and might have been given the maximum grade for his work. The point being that when things go right, someone still failed at their job, and when things go poorly, someone did great. It is simply the fabric of football.

Breaking Down A Great Drive

Tony Romo is on a tremendous roll right now, playing some of the best football of his career over the last few weeks. It sure seemed that if you combine his mastery of the 4th Quarter against Washington to what we saw in the 2nd half against Miami, there is reason to believe that Romo is rounding into a form that makes him a big threat in the NFC to put the Cowboys in a great spot. The sequence we want to review from the Miami game is all about Romo making play after play at a crucial moment of the contest.

Let's review the 9th Drive of the game here today. At this point, the Cowboys are trailing, have been out-gained badly, have lost momentum, and need to make a statement before this must-win game gets totally away from them. They have barely touched the ball in the 3rd Quarter and now take the ball after the Dolphins have taken a 16-10 lead.



Play #1: 1/10/23 - (3:48) T.Romo pass short left to M.Bennett to DAL 31 for 8 yards (K.Burnett). Pass complete on a "Crossing Pattern."

Cowboys start in "12" personnel. This is worth noting because they never leave "12" the entire rest of the quarter. This is an odd and enlightening idea for Jason Garrett. Seldom does he stay in the same personnel package for any extended period of time, but this time he saw they were getting in a rhythm and stayed with it. 1st Down and the Cowboys have the two tight ends lined up off each tackle in a double wing look. Dolphins are in a man-under coverage so Romo picks out Martellus Bennett going across the field with a LB - Kevin Burnett - in a trail position. Bennett has a step but is tripped up after 8 by a nice ankle tackle.

Non Play: 2/2/31 - (3:08) PENALTY on DAL-D.Free, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 31 - No Play.

Play #2: 2/7/26 - (2:43) (Shotgun) Romo pass short right to Witten to DAL 35 for 9 yards (K. Burnett)(R.Starks)

This play goes poorly because Kyle Kosier is getting trucked into the backfield by Randy Starks. This causes Romo to throw the ball into a bad area and if there is a moment he would like back, it would have to be this. Vontae Davis very likely should have picked off this pass to Witten, but the jump ball falls into the hands of the trusty Tight End after Romo held the ball for nearly 4 seconds (3.9). Protection and the QB just about ended the drive right here, but instead the Cowboys move the chains and get a fresh set of downs after Romo made a play under duress.





Play #3: 1/10/35 - (2:04) T.Romo pass short left to D.Murray to MIA 48 for 17 yards (V.Davis) [C.Wake]. Pass complete on a "Wheel" route.

Here it is all about Romo being Romo. Pass protection is a mess here as the Dolphins run a double LB blitz from the QB's right side and Tyron Smith guesses wrong in his assignment. He ends up helping Kosier for no apparent reason and the flank is unguarded. This leaves John Phillips to try to block two blitzers, and he doesn't touch Cameron Wake on the outside. Trouble is, Karlos Dansby is blowing him up on the inside, too. Romo is dead here and actually decides to run from Wake to the left and somehow sees Murray out of the corner of his eye on the wheel route and a sure sack turns into a 17 yard gain. There is no way he should be able to make this pass after such a poor protection breakdown. Murray takes the pass in full gallop and gets into Miami territory. Sensational play by the QB.

Play #4: 1/10/48 - (1:41) D.Murray right guard to MIA 44 for 4 yards (K.Dansby).

A standard run/pass option that turns into a Fullback lead play with Phillips helping Murray shoot up for 4 yards on 1st Down. This is a play you will see from many different personnel groupings and formations about 5-6 times per game.

Play #5: 2/6/44 - (1:06) T.Romo pass short left to L.Robinson ran ob at MIA 30 for 14 yards. Pass complete on a "Square Out."

I wanted to point out this play to whatever remains from the "Jon Kitna should start faction". There was a time in the last 12 months where some well-meaning Cowboys fans actually thought Kitna should start in front of Tony Romo. I know they may be hard to identify right now, but trust me, they existed. Anyway, this, right here, is a throw Kitna cannot make. In fact, this, around draft time, is what they call "the NFL throw". It is an out from the far hash mark of his own 48-yard line to the 30-yard line of the Dolphins on a frozen rope to Laurent Robinson from the slot with a corner trying to undercut the route. If the pass doesn't get there, it is a Pick-6 the other way. Romo fires it and verifies his arm strength with ease. Not easy, but it looked easy and the Cowboys are now at the Dolphins 30 as the clock is running down in the 3rd Quarter.

Play #6: 1/10/30 - (1:06) (No huddle) Murray to left end to Mia 30 for no gain. (C.Clemons)

It looks like the Cowboys are hurrying to the line of scrimmage to get a snap off to insure there is no challenge on the pass to Robinson. It is simply a zone play to the left with Phillips in a lead FB spot. The Dolphins string out the play wide, and Murray has to fight to just get back to the 30. Not the smoothest looking run play of the day as Doug Free loses his fight at the point of attack. The Dolphins have DBs crashing hard and there is no gain to be found.

Play #7: 2/10/30 - (:11) Romo pass to short middle and Robinson to Miami 23 for 7 yards (C Clemons) Pass complete on a drag route.

The last play of the 3rd Quarter is a route that we were wondering about a month ago. Where had all of the shallow crosses gone in the Jason Garrett offense? It looks like Laurent Robinson is bringing them back. Still in "12", Tight Ends clear out the shallow linebackers, and now Robinson from the slot takes his man coverage across the middle. Just like the Bennett completion, this is all a matter of leading the man and giving him a chance at a big play, but again Clemons is sound on the tackling and it is just 7 yards.

4th Quarter

Play #8: 3/3/23 - (15:00) (Shotgun) T.Romo pass short middle to J.Witten to MIA 18 for 5 yards (M.Mitchell) [K.Dansby]. Pass complete on a "Crossing Pattern."

At the Quarter break, the Cowboys change personnel packages for the only time in the drive. They switch to "11" personnel and take off a TE in exchange for a WR. Kevin Ogletree and Witten both run shallow routes while Robinson and Bryant head down the field. Again, the Dolphins are in a man-under coverage with 3rd and short. This play is not that far from the play that broke Romo's collarbone against the Giants in 2010. Like that play, they have a check-release call on for the RB. Felix Jones checks for a blitzer and then releases into his route. But, like Chris Gronkowski last year, he didn't see and pick up the blitzer as Karlos Dansby comes free and tries to knock Romo out. Romo keeps his cool and delivers a duck as he is being hammered and Witten barely gets to it and moves the chain before taking down an unsuspecting cheerleader. Surely, this is not something you want to have happen much, but full marks to Romo for hanging in there and making a huge 3rd Down. This is a field goal drive if this play doesn't happen.



Play #9: 1/10/18 - (14:37) (Shotgun) T.Romo pass deep left corner of end zone to L Robinson for 18 yards and TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on roll left for Romo.

Just a superb play, once again from "S11". Romo stays alive for 5.1 seconds with the ball as the protection is strong against a Dolphins 4 man rush. He then rolls to his left which obviously where he feels most comfortable these days (how many times have we seen it recently?) Robinson comes all the way across the field and Romo is feeling so good that he fires the ball over the head of Witten into the back of the end zone. Again, this requires a very strong arm and pin point accuracy. If the ball is not caught for a TD, then nobody is catching it. Simply phenomenal QB play on this play and the entire drive.

9 Plays - 73 yards - and the Cowboys took the lead again. They would need even another drive later to secure the win, but I just thought this was such a thing of beauty that we should take a harder look at it. Romo was on fire here as the ball never hit the turf.

"I'm not kidding you, that is one of the best drives a QB in the NFL will have this season" - Phil Simms

Decoding Garrett - Week 11 - Data - Miami

Sometimes, one of the most difficult jobs of an NFL offense is to not "beat yourself". This can manifest itself in many ways, but clearly, the best way to stop a drive is with a turnover, penalty, or to allow a sack.

These three possibilities are called "drive killers" or "drive stoppers" in many coaching circles. Drive killers can make a decent drive into a punt. It can make a TD into a FG. It can take a win and turn it into a loss. Drive killers come in many forms, but here are the numbers in the 2010 season for what drive killers can do to an offense.

In 2010, teams scored touchdowns on only 18% of drives that had offensive penalties. Drives that included negative rushes only resulted in TDs on 14% of the time. Sacks? If a drive had a sack, only 7% would then end up in the endzone with 7 points. And, it goes without saying that 0% of drives with turnovers get touchdowns. I don't have the numbers league-wide for 2011, but I believe that most who follow the Cowboys would confirm that sometimes the best defense is an offense that insists on getting in it's on way.

So, on days like Thanksgiving Day, you understand why coaches go on and on about "not beating ourselves" and getting execution clean and precise. It is really difficult to beat your opponent when you are beating yourself.

Let's take a quick look at the 11 drives:

#1 - Drive ends with a Romo interception intended for Bennett.
#2 - Penalty to Free, Penalty to Ogletree, Punt.
#3 - Drive ends with a Romo interception intended for Robinson.
#4 - Cameron Wake Sack, Punt.
#5 - Clean drive stalls for Field Goal.
#6 - Clean drive goes 3 and out.
#7 - 1 play drive for Touchdown.
#8 - Clean drive 3 and out.
#9 - Penalty to Free, Long drive for Touchdown.
#10 - Penalty to Free, Penalty to Smith, Punt.
#11 - Clean drive for game winning Field Goal.

11 drives, 5 were clean (although 1 of those was a 1 play drive from the 5-yard line). If we operate under the theory that any drive that has a blemish has about a 80-90% chance of failure (according to the league stats), we can then see how much pressure you put on those few drives where nothing goes wrong.

The connections between "negatives" (Sacks, penalties, minus rush plays) all mean that you are setting up a 3rd and long. As we discussed last week, 3rd and 10 or more in the NFL is a play that fails 80%+ of the time. So, minus plays set up low-percentage 3rd downs. And the numbers below confirm that 3rd Downs on Thanksgiving Day were near the worst of the season. The season average for 3rd Down distance to go is 7.48 before the Miami game which is near the league average. But, partly due to the Dolphins D and partly due to self-inflicted wounds with false starts and things of that nature, the Cowboys faced 9.55 yards to go on 3rd Down. That is 2nd worse, only the Jets season opener saw a longer distance all season (9.91).

And what are the great effects of this? Well, the Cowboys went 2-9 (22%) on 3rd Down against the Dolphins - their lowest 3rd Down production of 2011. All of these items are related. Self-inflicted wounds don't just hurt that play, they often kill the entire drive. Even a little false start penalty.

Data from Week 11 vs. Miami

Run-Pass	23-35
1st Down Run-Pass	14-14
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.52
2nd Down Run-Pass	8-13
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	9.55
3rd Down Run-Pass	1-8
3rd Down Conversions	2-9, 22%

HTML Tables

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

5 Runs on Drives 2-6. Then, all passes the rest of the game. It is clear that Garrett wished to pound the ball quite a bit on Thursday. But, it was a bad combination that forced him back to the air to get the win late. The ground game was impressive in their resolve, but the results were not great. The lurking issues of the lack of a Fullback reared its head again.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Total: 125 Drives - 55 Run/70 Pass 44% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

No Tony Fiammetta again means that there is no "21" or "22" personnel available, which then means that the offense will be in some form of "12" or "13" for all plays from under center. "12" personnel ran the ball a bit better and but still averages a mediocre 3.54 yards per carry this season (71 carries for 251 yards). However, "13" personnel - where John Phillips is generally the lead blocker with a shift to FB - the Cowboys remain worse than mediocre and cannot get out of their own way, averaging 2.42 yards per carry (64 carries for 155 yards).

You can see now why Fiammetta or the signing of another FB seem to be on the minds of the people that follow this team. With December and hopefully January looming, 2.42 a carry is not going to get you very far - even with DeMarco Murray.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	0	0	0-0	0-0
12	19	134	8-37	11-97
13	14	37	11-37	3-0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	2	10	0-0	2-10
S11	14	92	2-15	12-77
S12	9	31	2--2	7-33
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	58	304	23-87	35-217

Table Tutorial

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	1	-1	1--1	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S11	5	23	0-0	5-23	2/0
S12	3	12	0-0	3-12	0/0
Totals	9	34	1--1	8-35	2/0

Table Tutorial

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

Dallas has been in shotgun 275 occasions this season, and has run the ball out of that 31 times (11%). Most of those runs are on 3rd and long where they just want a handful of yards to allow the punter some room, so there is really no reason for the opponent to scout the Cowboys shotgun running schemes until they show that they will use them. I only remember a few times in the last few years when the Cowboys ran the ball for purpose out of the shotgun.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58

Total - 275/695 42.7%


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Overall, it was clear to anyone who was watching the game that Dallas has won the last two contests without the offense playing particularly well. This is a nice problem to have, but it also shows there are problems to be fixed. Moving forward, there will be days where the Cowboys will need 31 points and a sharp performance to find a victory and I assume that is the focus in this extended week off.

They won on Thanksgiving due to 2 drives that were almost completely on the shoulders of their QB in the 4th Quarter. Tomorrow, we will examine maybe one of the finest drives of his career; the drive that resulted in the TD to Robinson in the deep corner of the endzone. A true thing of beauty.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

The Morning After: Cowboys 20, Dolphins 19 (7-4)

How different is this Jason Garrett-coached Dallas Cowboys team from teams that have preceded it? Perhaps, as the Cowboys have dragged themselves to win in two very "lose-able" scenarios these last 5 days, we have had some light shed on that interrogative.

There are certainly many similarities to the Wade Phillips' teams that have come before it. Mistakes are a bit too plentiful. Talent is a bit too scarce. Turnovers make things more difficult than they should be. Stops at the moment of truth are not always around. Heck, even the go-to move of the last decade of Cowboys football - 12 men on the field - is alive and well.

This is not a team that is going to threaten the 1972 Dolphins in the quest for football perfection without a substantial facelift in many areas.

But, in the afterglow of the 20-19 win over the 2011 Dolphins yesterday at Cowboys Stadium, Dallas appears to have discovered something that didn't live in Dallas last season.

Guts.

For it was guts that helped the Cowboys escape Washington with a much-needed victory on Sunday when things were conspiring against them. That was a very dangerous game that was on the brink of defeat for much of the afternoon. The defense caved, the running game stayed home, and it was a gritty and gutty effort from Tony Romo that rescued the victory from the jaws of defeat with big-time moments and big-time throws.

And then, on a short week of work where soreness was present as well as an opponent that did not offer much familiarity, the Cowboys ground their way to another ugly win that required all 60 minutes to take the final lead. There were several opportunities to lose the game and more than a few Cowboys' loyalists already allowed themselves to accept the outcome, but once again the common denominator that seemed to save their skins was actually inside their skin.

Guts.

A quick scan of the game log of the 2011 season for Romo will reveal that Thanksgiving was one of his worst statistical performances of the year. It would be foolish to fight this sentiment based on a 1st half that included 2 interceptions and 2 punts in the first 4 drives of the game. A drop here, an under-thrown pass there, and before long the Cowboys offense had once again found themselves an unproductive bunch with a 4th Quarter deficit of 16-10. Surely, it is slightly ironic that a similar offensive performance on Sunday yielded a similar deficit (17-10) after 3 quarters on Sunday.

But, the 9th drive of the game was the kind of drive that will hopefully allow some of his biggest critics (Cowboys fans) to see that he is having one of his best seasons of a very strong career. Time after time on that drive he either was decked by a Miami blitzer or nearly avoided being decked by a Miami blitzer. And each time - whether being decked or not - he delivered a great throw to a Cowboys receiver to keep the drive alive. Bennett. Witten. Murray. Robinson. Robinson again. Witten again. And finally, his finest play of the drive that should be dropped in a time capsule, Laurent Robinson in the back corner of the end zone for the Touchdown. It was a drive of sheer guts. A QB who has dabbled in injury for much of the last two seasons throwing caution and good health to the wind and taking some major shots to make some major plays.

Of course, that would not be enough to find a victory at 17-16. Instead, the defense had a big stand nullified when a DeMarcus Ware sack was cancelled out by a Abram Elam holding penalty. Momentum was lost and the Dolphins offense gained in confidence and marched down the field. After a Anthony Fasano reception and a pointless Frank Walker penalty for hitting out of bounds, the Cowboys faced a situation where the Dolphins had 1st and goal from the 3 yard line. Cave in here, and the Cowboys chances would reduce quite a bit.

But, they didn't. They held the Dolphins out of the end zone and gutted their way to only conceding the 3 points. Still down, 19-17, but still alive.

The teams traded possessions and that left the Cowboys with 1 last chance and the ball at their own 36 after Dez Bryant showed the Cowboys a return could turn into something marginally exciting again.

From there, Dallas had a "get it done or lose" situation. 2:59 to go. Must get at least a field goal and you would sure like to not leave the Dolphins any time to counter.

And that is where the guts of Tony Romo, and the guts of both his new sidekick, DeMarco Murray, and his old sidekick, Jason Witten marched the ball right down the field. Murray, like Romo, will not have the type of gaudy numbers that were there a few weeks ago, but Murray's conviction when he is running the ball and his willingness to punish anyone that attempts to tackle him is a thing of beauty right now. He had a very large impact on this contest. As the last of their 179 seconds ticked off the clock, Dan Bailey hit his 26th straight field goal from short range and the Cowboys won another game in which one can either take the victory and breath a sigh of relief or they can take the next 10 days to list all of the ways the Cowboys need to get better.

In 2010, we saw the Cowboys lose a lot of games when it came down to a showdown of guts. The first team to cry "uncle" would lose and the Cowboys "uncled" their way to a 1-7 start that saw Wade Phillips fired. There seemed to be almost no guts on this team when Jacksonville were humiliating them on their own turf. The next week, they seemed to care even less at Green Bay. It was a sad display that made you wonder if those players were fit to wear the uniform.

I don't necessarily suggest Jason Garrett is coaching strategies based on "guts", but I do feel like his QB and other vital members of this squad have decided to not allow this team to cave in and accept defeat. Sometimes, Romo knows he must make a play at the moment of truth or the team will lose. This team puts a ton on the QB, and while everyone seems to discuss the Jets and Lions games, I would like to counter that with those wins against the 49ers, Redskins, Redskins (again), and now the Dolphins. The Cowboys simply do not win any of those 4 games if Romo is not making the plays. He didn't make them all. Just the ones that mattered to the outcome of the contest.

Romo showed guts. The defense made a stand. Murray never quit on a single run.

So, you can fixate on the issues that are still around on this team, for there are more than a few. But after these last two games, I think it is notable to point out that this team has something that has been missing around here for a while.

Resolve. Fortitude. Guts.

Those characteristics can go a long way down the stretch in the NFL.

Special Teams Report - Returns Needed

We have received an awful lot of questions about the special teams portion of the Dallas Cowboys over the last few weeks, so I thought I would attempt to squeeze a little attention in their direction on this short week.

Overall, it has been a mediocre, but quiet, year for the special teams. We say "mediocre" because the return teams rate near the bottom of the league as punt returning is 27th and kick returning is 29th. There is absolutely no threat back there right now when the Cowboys return kicks, and that would be the primary reason that Dallas loyalists are always wondering why Dez Bryant or Felix Jones are not back there to attempt to at least put a little fear in the hearts of the opponents. For the Cowboys to realize their full potential, at some point, someone needs to make a play in the return game.

Last year, Dez Bryant returned 2 punts for Touchdowns against the Bears and the Giants. Bryan McCann had a famous TD return against the Lions that helped win the game. On the other hand, they conceded giant kickoff returns to Marc Mariani and Percy Harvin, as well as a crucial blocked punt in Indianapolis. They even had their own kickoff return taken back by Green Bay for a TD on that forgettable night in Lambeau. All of those special teams plays - good and bad - are able to be studied in great detail on my blogs from 2010 if you are so inclined to follow the link.

This year, "quiet" might be more the way to describe the return and cover teams. There have been almost no catastrophic moments - the only moment that requires disdain would be the punt blocked in Week 1 which very likely cost the Cowboys that season opener in New York. Replays of the moment captured Tony Soprano (actor James Gandolfini) celebrating with delight in the arms of another Jets fan. The punt team parted like the Red Sea for Moses and allowed a man to come right up the middle and block a Mat McBriar punt.

Since then, all had been completely quiet until Brandon Banks used his 4.4 speed to almost break a punt return twice on Sunday. Both returns were huge, but thankfully for the Cowboys and their special teams coach, Joe DeCamillis, Bruce Carter made one tackle and punter Mat McBriar made another (sort of).

That week of poor work took the punt return coverage from 11th in the NFL to 22nd in 1 week's time and has caused a fair amount of consternation with regards to the performance levels of those involved.

Let's fill out a participation chart for Week 10 against Washington so we know who is participating on "teams" for the Cowboys:

Kickoff	Kickoff Return	Punt	Punt Return
16-Holley	16-Holley	16-Holley	16-Holley
11-Owusu-Ansah	11-Owusu-Ansah	11-Owusu-Ansah	11-Owusu-Ansah
55-Albright	55-Albright	55-Albright	55-Albright
40-McCray	40-McCray	40-McCray	40-McCray
42-Church	42-Church	42-Church	42-Church
54-Carter	54-Carter	54-Carter	54-Carter
89-Phillips	89-Phillips	89-Phillips	89-Phillips
34-Tanner	34-Tanner	26-Elam	34-Tanner
85-Ogletree	57-Butler	57-Butler	85-Ogletree
43-Sensabaugh	92-Brent	91-Ladoucer	32-Scandrick
5-Bailey	95-Lissemore	1-McBriar	20-Ball

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The first thing we want to point out is the participation on all 4 teams of 7 different players. This is a very important list of players to know, and when you often ask questions about the Cowboys roster, the value of a fringe player, and the question of whether a given player is "active" or "inactive" for a given contest, look no further than this list of 7 players. This is the spine of your roster on game day to make sure that you do not lose the game on special teams.

This year, those 7 players who can play on each and every specialty team are Jesse Holley, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, Alex Abright, Danny McCray, Barry Church, Bruce Carter, and John Phillips. There were 23 special teams kick and return moments on Sunday and if you are caught overlooking the importance of those few dozen opportunities, you will lose games every year. It can make a team's record better or worse than it deserves to be. Just ask San Diego, last year that team saw their entire season destroyed because their specialty teams were a mess.

That list of 7 players have the faith of the coaching staff to contribute on special teams. Conversely, one of the knocks on Tashard Choice and Kevin Ogletree has been that they are not thought to be very good on special teams. Ogletree is still being used on 2 of the 4 teams, but last year he was pulled off the kick cover team after a moment that helped cost Dallas the Tennessee game. Two other players contribute quite a bit on teams, but don't play on all 4. Phillip Tanner and Victor Butler are both key members who will be quickly inserted if there is any injury for those 7, or will fill out the 11 on the other teams.

Teams want to avoid using starters on special teams if possible, although different coaches have different philosophies. The real issue is that you continue to use young players on teams, but those young players are often not accustomed to playing on specialty teams back in college. Therefore, they are often covering kicks for the first time in years. Meanwhile, as players become bigger contributors on offense or defense, the team starts to protect them form over-use and potential injuries, and that is why a player like Sean Lee, who did quite well on special teams at times last year, never sees the field in that capacity now. He is too valuable to the defense.

Basically, it comes down to this: If you are a starter, you generally won't be asked by the Cowboys to cover or return. If you are a reserve, you better be able to play on these teams and play well (unless you weigh near or above 300 pounds). A reserve DB, WR, RB, TE, or LB simply must be great at special teams because that is where he can play between 20-30 plays in a game, even if he is getting no snaps on offense or defense. These are the players that will be active on Sunday when other players can be shut down.

Kickoff Cover Team

The Cowboys are the 9th best kickoff cover team in the NFL. They are having about 60% of kicks returned against them (20th), but when those kicks are returned against the Cowboys, they are limiting their opponents to merely 21.9 yards a return. San Francisco returned a kick 43 yards, but overall, this coverage unit is far better than last year's edition that was gashed for large yardage on a few occasions in the 1st half of the season. This put them in a very poor spot against the Vikings and Titans.





Punt Cover Team

Clearly, a big part of punt coverage is also making sure a punt doesn't get blocked. It is a very fine line because you want to stop a speedy return man, but you better not leave early or miss your block or the game will get changed with a blocked punt. In the two photos above, you can see McBriar before his punt was blocked in Week 1 and McBriar during the game on Sunday. The formation is different as the Cowboys in the first photo have 2 blockers behind the line as protectors on the flanks. Now, 26-Elam has been added straight on as a third player behind the line. This would secure the up-the-middle rush that burned them in Week 1. This alignment has been far more secure and seems to have taught DeCamillis a bit of a lesson the hard way.

Regardless, punt returns were not an issue until Sunday, and the Cowboys ranked 11th in the NFL conceding 7.7 a return, but now rank 22nd with a return average against of 11.4. Keep an eye on that as they are starting to play some teams with potential game breakers as punt returners on the horizon (Patrick Peterson, in particular).

Kickoff Return

This unit is absolutely awful. 29th in the NFL in kick returns and if you want to win a trivia question with your buddies, ask them who has the team's longest return of the year (Sean Lissemore). Somehow, New England, Buffalo, and Indianapolis have worse return teams, but the Cowboys have tried Kevin Ogletree, Dwayne Harris, and Owusu Ansah. None of them have appeared the least bit threatening. And frankly, it appears to have zapped any confidence as the Cowboys now happily accept a touchback more often than not. It is difficult to understand why Felix Jones would not be a potential solution to this problem if DeMarco Murray is a full time back.

Punt Return

Again, 27th in the league and not the least bit threatening. I understand the reluctance to use Dez Bryant when Miles Austin is hurt, but in my estimation, this has to be strongly considered down the stretch. 7.3 yards per return when Chicago leads the league with 20.6 yards per return. You simply must have a dynamic and confident return man. Owusu-Ansah seems to lack decisiveness, explosiveness, and confidence. Each return is an opportunity and presently, the Cowboys seem to be lacking any ability to take advantage of those opportunities.

So, in conclusion, the Cowboys are getting outstanding kicking from Dan Bailey in converting their Field Goals. The punting has obviously suffered due to McBriar's injury, but it remains reasonable most weeks. Coverage teams have been fine for the most part, but cannot rest on any accomplishments as trouble lies ahead. But, if there is one place the Cowboys simply need a boost, there is no question it would be in both punt return and kick return.

With suitable options available on the roster, it will be interesting to see if they take advantage of this opportunity.

Decoding Garrett - Week 10 - Data - At Washington

The Cowboys won a game Sunday that is tough to fully explain from a statistical standpoint. From a production perspective, they accumulated their 2nd worst yardage day of the year with 354 yards. Only the blowout loss in Philadelphia saw fewer yards (266), while only the loss to Detroit saw more snaps (75). 73 offensive plays and barely 350 yards makes for a very poor 4.84 yards per snap. That would be easily the least efficient day of the season for the offense crew.

And as we saw late, it wasn't like the defense carried the team to victory, either. The defense has the dubious distinction of conceding 166 passing yards to Rex Grossman from the start of the 4th Quarter on. That is certainly not going to make the rest of the NFL take notice, either.

So, why did the Cowboys win on Sunday? And why are they playing winning football overall in the last 3 weeks during this streak?

THIRD DOWN IMPROVEMENTS

Look no further than what is referred to around the NFL as the "Money Down". 3rd Down conversions can either sink a perfectly healthy ship if they are going wrong, or they can pull a team out of a bad spot if they are going right. There is almost nothing an offense does that has more impact than moving the chains when you simply must.

The sample sizes are not large enough in the last 3 games to say definitively that the Cowboys have figured out one of their biggest issues in October and November, but just one check of the 3-4 start versus the 3-0 run they are currently on takes you to this particular metric:

Weeks	3rd Down Conv-Att	Rate - Rank
1-7	28-82	34% - 22nd
8-10	22-43	51% - 2nd

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Just look at those results. The NFL average for 3rd Down conversions of any length is 38%. In 7 games, the Cowboys were sitting just above Washington's offense and just below Denver's as they ranked 22 out of 32 in 3rd Down conversions. A quick look at the bottom teams in the league and their talent levels, and you will quickly notice that it is made up of teams that just do not have the horses to compete. Dallas has no business down in that group. Meanwhile, the best 3rd Down conversion teams in the NFL have QBs named Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Roethlisberger, and Rivers.

Since that trip home from Philadelphia, the Cowboys - albeit in a 3 game sample so it is too early to consider this problem fixed - the Cowboys now are 2nd only to the Packers in moving the chains. And wasn't that the story on Sunday? Yesterday, we discussed at rather great length that the only reason Dallas won was because Tony Romo's 3rd Down play was off the charts late in the game. The Touchdown to Robinson, the TD to Witten, and of course the 3rd and 15 conversion to Bryant in Overtime all testify to this fact.

And how has Romo been in those two stretches of time on 3rd Down? Well, his QB rating in September and October on 3rd Down is under 80 at 79.6. That ranked him below Colt McCoy, Josh Freeman, and Michael Vick for 3rd Down marksman, and miles below the elite QBs. But, since the calendar turned to November, Tony Romo on 3rd Down is 2nd to only one passer in football - Aaron Rodgers. Romo's passer rating during that stretch sits at a near perfect 146.5. Off the charts.

Again, we don't want to over-explain a 3-game sample against 3 poor teams, but if this is a sign of a QB getting fully healthy and an offense finally coming together with a runner, a line that is playing better, and receivers that are starting to figure it out, then the sky could be the limit during the final third of the season.

MISSING FIAMMETTA

It is certainly difficult to imagine back in training camp that the fan base would be depressed with the absence of a player they had never heard of, but knowing that Tony Fiammetta was not available in Washington and likely won't be on Thanksgiving, either, is starting to give everyone pause.

Fiammetta was not in the plans for the Cowboys at fullback, for they felt they were squared away with two other candidates at training camp, Chris Gronkowski and Shaun Chapas, a 7th round pick this past April out of Georgia. But, in camp, neither player was able to justify a roster spot, so around Labor Day, the Cowboys scanned the waiver wire and claimed Fiammetta from Carolina right before the start of the season and cut the other two loose.

Since then, we merely have to look at the following graphic to see how this team runs the ball in "under center" situations with their new FB and without him available:

	Attempts	Yards	Average/Att
W/ Fiammetta	105	744	7.08
W/O Fiammetta	123	372	3.02

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One thing is certain about the Cowboys in 2011 - that their running game changes from week to week. Many have seen these Fiammetta numbers and have properly pointed out that DeMarco Murray's run as the lead runner has coincided with the games Fiammetta has played, and that is mostly true. However, Fiammetta's performance in Week 3 against Washington opened up the lanes for Felix Jones with great success. Also, the game this week at Washington was a game with Murray, but without a fullback, and once again the Cowboys proved they have no back-up plan to Fiammetta where they needed 32 carries to get 89 yards. John Phillips is many things for this team, but lead blocker is not one of them.

Murray is getting 6 yards a carry and Jones is getting 4. Another interesting split is that the team averages 6.2 yards per carry running the ball at home and 3.3 yards per carry on the road. At Cowboys Stadium, the Dallas running game has not had a day under 100 yards. On the road, they have no games over 100 yards.

I would very much enjoy a candid discussion (as opposed to a guarded Jason Garrett in a press conference setting where he tries to say very little) with the Cowboys offensive coaching staff as to their theories on what is working and what is not in running the football, but it sure seems that Fiammetta is the one constant that is required for this team to really run the ball well.

Data from Week 10 at Washington

Run-Pass	32-41
1st Down Run-Pass	16-15
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.33
2nd Down Run-Pass	12-12
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.70
3rd Down Run-Pass	3-14
3rd Down Conversions	8-17, 47%

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Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

The Cowboys passed the ball to start nearly every drive. Deceiving because they seldom were downfield passes, but a series of high-percentage passes seemed like the plan of the day. This number factors in 2 kneel downs, also. So in reality, the Cowboys started 10 of 12 drives with a pass play.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass

Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass

Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass

Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass

Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass

Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass

Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass

Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass

Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass

Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass

Total: 100 Drives - 50 Run/64 Pass 44% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Here is what we learned yet again. The Cowboys try to cover up the absence of a fullback by putting 3 TE's on the field "13" personnel and lining them up as if they were in "22" - with a TE lined up as FB. The theory is that Phillips is too tall (Fiammetta is 6'0, 242 and Phillips is 6'6, 262) for proper leverage as a lead blocker at the point of attack. If "low man wins" in blocking drills, perhaps there is something to this theory. Regardless, there is a stark contrast in productivity between the FB lead plays when Fiammetta is there versus a tight end. You can see that in the "13" run plays below (17 carries for just 36 yards).

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	0	0	0-0	0-0
12	25	128	11-56	14-72
13	22	54	17-36	5-18
21	0	0	0-0	0-0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	2	-4	0-0	2--4
S11	11	50	2-0	9-50
S12	11	126	0-0	11-126
Knee	2	0	2-0	0-0
Totals	73	354	32-92	41-262

Table Tutorial

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	3	11	3-11	0-0	2/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	1	-13	0-0	1--13	0/0
S11	9	59	1-1	8-58	2/2
S12	5	102	0-0	5-102	0/0
Totals	18	159	4-12	14-147	6/3

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Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

This game saw the Cowboys seldom in shotgun other than 3rd Down. And as we said, they were doing quite well there.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66

Wk 2 - SF: 32/66

Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62

Wk 4 - Det: 29/75

Wk 5 - NE 31/67

Wk 6 - StL 10/60

Wk 7 - Phi 39/49

Wk 8 - Sea 19/59

Wk 9 - Buf 15/61

Wk 10-Was 24/73


Total - 250/637 39.2%


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Overall, we would rate the Washington win as part luck (Gano missed a kick to win) and part winning the turnovers and converting key 3rd Downs. Romo saved the day, but you don't want to play like that every week against inferior competition if you want to win the division.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.