Decoding Linehan - Week 15 - Colts

Fifteen games into the regular season, the Dallas Cowboys have earned their ticket to the postseason, and they are starting to gain recognition for the exceptional offensive year they have put together. Six members of their offense has been selected for the Pro Bowl, including all three of the first-round picks on the OL, plus Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, and the man who has set the tone for the entire season, DeMarco Murray.

The reason it is so difficult to have a conversation about whether Tony Romo should win the NFL MVP is because it is a bit tricky to identify the MVP of his own offense. Romo, by the way, has put together the type of season that should get him in those conversations with Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady (and JJ Watt), but it is fair to ask if DeMarco Murray should, too.  And, if Murray does lead the NFL in nearly every rushing statistic -- some by a very healthy margin such as the rushing title itself by 400-plus yards -- then we must ask how much of it is Murray and how much of it is the fantastic offensive line that has been assembled.

Regardless, we can surely all agree that while the individual awards are fun and rewarding, they honestly do not particularly matter as it pertains to the whole reason we play the games. The Cowboys' lone objective when they prepare for any opponent is the team accomplishment of a win, not the personal accolades that accompany a victory. Additionally, what makes the Cowboys such a formidable offensive threat is exactly why it is so difficult to identify a single focal point of the offense. They are sustainable as an offensive threat moving forward because they have a formula that does not over-leverage any one component.

In other words, they are the epitome of the powerful, merciless, balanced offense this "decoding" series started pleading for the day that Jason Garrett was given the head coaching job in 2010. The week he was given the job in November of 2010, I wrote the following about what was needed from the Garrett Cowboys in a column called "Expectations For The Garrett Era:

They are weak mentally. Adversity breaks them down. When the going gets tough, the Cowboys cave in and collapse. They must learn resolve and a steel mindset that welcomes a challenge and can overcome some bad luck. Nothing tells you about a team like their ability to deal with something that doesn't go their way. 3 weeks ago, their QB was lost and this team has yet to act like they are still interested in playing anymore. Listen, Gents, in the NFL, injuries are a fact of life. If your QB getting hurt makes your defense want to fold their tents for the season, then you have the wrong players on your team.

But, a weak mentality is not all that needs to be fixed very quickly. A weak physical approach to football is even worse. And in 2010, we are seeing one of the very weakest Cowboys' teams that I can remember. Their inability to run the football is not a strategy issue. Sure, there are a few points of strategy in the run calls that could be debated. But what we have seen for the entire season is an offensive line that cannot win the battle at the point of attack. There is seldom a play when everyone up front is carrying out their assignment with the proper precision and strength. This is just not an offensive line that has ever taken a game by the scruff of the neck. You cannot win in the NFL if your offensive line can be bullied on a routine basis. And make no mistake: Pretty much every opponent has pushed the Cowboys' OL around. As I have said, run any scheme you want and if your OL is having the physical game taken to them, then it just won't matter which play you call. You cannot win.

Football is a complicated game with a simple truth: In order to win, you need your guys to whip the rear of the player across from them.

In short, on offense and defense, this team doesn't resemble a team that is ready for a street fight. Rather, they resemble a team that has been coddled and assured that they are entitled to something wonderful without having to earn it. The glamour of the Dallas Cowboys brand name has given them the impression that success is owed to them. They embody their label of being members of a "country club" where they would like to win, but it surely is not a matter of life or death.

Like I said, Jason Garrett knows all of this. I think it is obvious with his actions in the first few days that pads must be put on at practice. Things must change. Discipline must be implemented. Privileges must be revoked. Fundamentals must be emphasized. And excuses must be removed.

And now, like a proud papa, one can stand back and see that it didn't happen quickly and it didn't happen immediately, but here it is. They have arrived -- some 4 years later -- at the spot where they can absolutely take over a game physically and destroy an opponent's will to play.

One way they are accomplishing this objective is by running on first down more than any team in football.  The average NFL team this year has thrown 185 passes on first down.  The NFL leaders in first-down passes include the Saints (234) and the Eagles (228).  Meanwhile, the Cowboys rank 32, having thrown on 116 first-down passes this year. That means the Cowboys throw on first down about seven times a game.  And if you deduct the two-minute drill?  It is probably twice a half that they are throwing on first down.

Of course, that means more on the ground.  The average NFL team this season has run  201 times on first down, with Jacksonville bringing up the rear in the NFL with 155 such plays. Dallas leads the league with 279. They also lead the league in production at 5.07 yards per rush. They run the most, they pass the least, and their production on the ground is the highest. But, here is the part I bet you don't know: They also lead the NFL in yards per first-down pass! They run fewer first-down pass plays than anyone else in the league, and because of that, they also out-produce everyone with 9.33 yards per pass.

So, No. 1 in yardage per play on first-down runs and passes?  This means fewer third downs, and when they happen, shorter yardage to go for first downs.

And that is what we mean when we talk about sustainable offenses.

By the way, on first down, Murray's production has been down the last couple weeks.  For 13 weeks, he averaged an absurd 5.78 yards per carry.  The Colts and Eagles did nice jobs on first down, holding him to 95 yards on 33 carries, a pitiful 2.88-yard average.  It seems clear that both teams were determined to stop the Cowboys' run on first down to control the game. And that is where the MVP argument crystallizes a bit for Romo.  When holding Murray off the sheet, the team has scored 80 points by unleashing Dez Bryant and the Romo-led aerial attack again.But have they stopped running on first down and started slinging it around?  No, they have run more. The powerful, merciless, balanced offense has arrived.

In weeks 1-13, the Cowboys ran on first down 69 percent of the time.  Now, in weeks 14-15, when the defenses were determined to take Murray away, they have cranked it up to 80 percent runs on first down. Now, several first-down plays when they were up big on the Colts may have skewed that percentage, but the 45/11 run/pass the last few weeks on first down is telling the league "do whatever you want, we are still running the ball on first down and thereby controlling the clock and the game".

Again, sustainable, repeatable, championship power is present on this offense.

Offensive Participation:

If this season ends up being remembered historically, I think the idea that might not get enough publicity is that the Cowboys have much better depth this year than any year in the recent past. The best examples to me are Jermey Parnell and Anthony Hitchens. Both were expected to be reserves this year, and both were forced to play. I will spend more time on Hitchens tomorrow, but the performance of Parnell, 28, has been very impressive. He played the entire game Sunday and, like just about every time he plays, he was hardly noticed. That, by the way, is a very good thing for an offensive linemen. Just blend in and do your job. If the Cowboys decide he's their starting right tackle next season, I am pretty sure could deal with that, although I think we should prefer that Doug Free return, if the price is right. The point is, Parnell has earned a real look for next year as your starter, and has been a real depth luxury this season as a reserve.

STATS FOR WEEK 16 AGAINST COLTS

 Every stat you see above is ideal.  The Colts were just a speed bump on the way to a division title.

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DRIVE STARTERS - The first play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here.

Please notice that the Cowboys have started drives with running plays 71 percent of the time in 2014, then compare that to that numbers below. Under Garrett, the Cowboys had never opened drives with running plays more than 47 percent of the time.  Wow.

2013 Total: 176 Drives - 84 Run/92 Pass - 47 percent run

2012 Total: 173 Drives - 76 Run/97 Pass - 44 percent run

2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass - 44 percent run

* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives.

SHOTGUN SNAPS

Lots of shotgun snaps can often mean a team has spent plenty of time behind. The Cowboys the last two weeks have played with the lead a lot, and the shotgun numbers have gone back down, nicely.

 Again, the impacts of Linehan and the might of the personnel is on full display in this category.  They don't play finesse anymore.

2013 Total: 566/945 - 59.8 percent shotgun

2012 Total: 565/1038 - 54 percent shotgun

2011 Total: 445/1012 - 43.9 percent shotgun

TOTALS BY PERSONNEL GROUPS (Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.)

Note the plays above from under center -- any group that doesn't have "S" on it. Thirty-nine runs and three passes, but the three passes went for 50 yards. Run, run, run, pass!

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.

PLAY-ACTION PERFORMANCE

Against the Eagles, they tried play-action, but the Eagles were sitting on it each time and Romo had to check down.

Wk 1: 1/5, 9 Yds, 3 INT, 1 FD

Wk 2: 4/5, 39 Yds, 1 Sack, 2 FD

Wk 3: 3/3, 88 Yds, 1 TD, 2 FD

Wk 4: 6/8, 76 Yds, 1 TD, 4 FD

Wk 5: 2/4, 38 Yds, 1 Sack, 2 FD

Wk 6: 1/4, 47 Yds, 1 Sack, 1 FD

Wk 7: 3/5, 55 Yds, 1 Sack, 2 TD, 1 FD

Wk 8: 5/6, 92 Yds, 1 TD, 2 FD

Wk 9: 1/1, 1 Yd

Wk 10: 2/3, 21 Yds, 1 FD

Wk 12: 4/4, 86 Yds, 4 FD

Wk 13: 2/3, 11 Yds, 1 FD

Wk 14: 5/6, 85 Yds, 4 FD, 1 Sack

Wk 15: 0/1, 1 Sack

Wk 16: 1/1, 11 Yds, 1 FD

2014 Total: 40/59 (67 percent), 659 Yds, 5 TD, 3 INT, 26 FD, 6 sacks - QB Rating: 112.1

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BLITZING Romo - Pass Rushers Against Dallas - 25 Passes against Indianapolis

Wk 1: SF Blitzed Dallas 1/40 - Blitzed 2.5 percent

Wk 2: TEN Blitzed Dallas 12/33 - Blitzed 36 percent

Wk 3: STL Blitzed Dallas 11/23 - Blitzed 47 percent

Wk 4: NO Blitzed Dallas 11/32 - Blitzed 34 percent

Wk 5: HOU Blitzed Dallas 11/42 - Blitzed 26 percent

Wk 6: SEA Blitzed Dallas 5/33 - Blitzed 15 percent

Wk 7: NYG Blitzed Dallas 5/25 - Blitzed 20 percent

Wk 8: WAS Blitzed Dallas 21/40 – Blitzed 52 percent

Wk 9: AZ Blitzed Dallas 13/36 - Blitzed 36 percent

Wk 10: JAX Blitzed Dallas 6/29 - Blitzed 20 percent

Wk 12: NYG Blitzed Dallas 3/27 - Blitzed 11 percent

Wk 13: PHI Blitzed Dallas 8/33 - Blitzed 24 percent

Wk 14: CHI Blitzed Dallas 7/27 - Blitzed 25 percent

Wk 15: PHI Blitzed Dallas 8/35 - Blitzed 22 percent

Wk 16: IND Blitzed Dallas 10/25 - Blitzed 40 percent

2014 Total: Opponents Blitzed Dallas 132/480 - Blitzed 27 percent

2013 Total: Opponents Blitzed Dallas 210/616 - Blitzed 34 percent

SUMMARY AND LOOK AHEAD:

This is a chance to take a deep breath and look around at the offense. Sure, there's one more game to play, but I hope the Cowboys treat it with the casual approach that I think it deserves. The Washington game likely has no bearing on the playoff picture, and anything that the Cowboys wanted to achieve in 2014's regular season has already been done - or, in the case of the bye week and the No. 1 or No. 2 seed, is no longer under their control.

Personally, I wouldn't play Tony Romo or DeMarco Murray in Washington. But I've been around here long enough to know that isn't how this organization usually operates. For me, this is a Brandon Weeden-Joseph Randle game, and it is the de facto bye week for my important pieces that need whatever off time they can get to prepare for what lies ahead.

And from here, what lies ahead is a real chance to be the team "nobody wants to play" in the postseason. And the reasons are what we talked about above. This isn't about Romo out-dueling Aaron Rodgers or Matthew Stafford or Russell Wilson. He doesn't have the same required of him as they do. Like Troy Aikman once upon a time, he finally has an offensive group around him that spreads the leverage and asks him to make some plays, but not all the plays. That is an advantageous position matched only by Seattle in this playoff field. Green Bay requires magic tricks from their QB, but Romo just needs to keep doing what he has done all season. Force the defense to stop the run, and then spring the trap over the top when he sees someone single-team defending Dez. It has worked thus far, and I am confident in can keep working.

There is no doubt this offense is capable of making significant noise in January. We certainly haven't been able to say that in years.

The Morning After: Cowboys 42, Colts 7 (11-4)

The Cowboys sprinted through the finish line of their long-established goal of winning the NFC East division yesterday by destroying a playoff team at home, in December, with the stakes as high as this team has dealt with in years.

Now what?

Time will only tell, but one thing is now more than certain: This Dallas Cowboys team may wear the same uniforms, play in the same stadium, and answer to the same name as previous Cowboys teams, but - they are different from what America has become accustomed to from Dallas.  This team is, in fact, different.

They are different because they are a team that is no longer being punished physically at this crucial time of year.  For years, when the showdowns of December and January would arrive, the Cowboys did not have enough strength to win in the trenches and certainly did not have enough depth to stand tall if somebody was injured.  Some years, it only took a single injury to knock the train off its track, because depth never presented players capable of maintaining its level of play.  But, in 2014, they are healthier, but those that replace an injured Cowboy seem to generally have the ability to perform and often you don't even notice the change.

They are different because they are resilient.  There is no question past editions of this franchise would not respond when they were punched in the mouth.  This team was humbled severely on Thanksgiving Day as the Eagles strolled into Arlington and by the end of the day were having a laugh at the way they demolished their rival.  The Cowboys lost the game in front of the football world by a massive margin that could have been much, much worse.  They were dominated and left for dead that day, as the team in the mix for the playoffs that would most likely be on the outside looking in when it came time to handout post-season invitations.  But, this team has not stepped off the gas since.  They had 7 days to wallow in their mess after that day and to perform the ultimate gut check.  That was their fork in the road, where it could have gone in one of two distinct directions after that day.  And, that is where the Cowboys demonstrated their grit, resolve, and intestinal fortitude, because since then, they have been a freight train that has outscored, out-gained, and destroyed 3 opponents in a row - all of which were thought of as playoff teams when this season began.

The Cowboys have won every game since Thanksgiving, posting a 3-0 record with a cumulative score of 121-62 and racking up a time of possession death-grip on the game and the clock of each of these contests to the tune of 36:37 to 23:23.  That means that the opponent is barely allowed to step on the field before Dallas grabs the game by the throat and administers massive body blows to any defense in their path.  The running game has continued to hit all of the notes, bashing its way for 145 yards a game, while Romo and the passing attack has converted 17 3rd Downs into 1st, and making all of the throws when needed. The turnover game in these 3 games?  8-2.  Dallas has been a +6 in just 3 games.

And most of all, they are different because they are just flat-out better.  It would frustrate the fan base to admit it at the time, but the facts seem pretty clear now.  This isn't a team that elected to play the style they played, with finesse styles of offense and defense when you hoped you could ride a throwing hot streak to a victory over a playoff bully.  They played that style because it was their best chance to win during the first several years of the Jason Garrett coaching stint.  But, during that time, often right under our noses, they were assembling big men who could win street fights against the bullies of this league.  They stopped investing in 200-pounders, and started buying in bulk the 300-pound variety.  The front office started to realize that if you go cheap in the trenches, it will end up with Tony Romo on his back and a running game that doesn't want to bother to run anymore.  People sometimes confuse this issue by saying the coaching staff finally committed to the run and ask "why didn't they do that more in 2011 or 2012?"  They didn't because they knew they were taking a knife to a gun-fight.  But, now?  They are fully armed with the best weapons in just about every duel they find themselves in.  That is why they are a legitimate January threat.  We saw it in Seattle in October, and now we see that they are capable of doing that to most not their schedule.  It is repeatable.  It is sustainable.  It is ground and pound, power football with the ability to throw off play-action and run looks with precision and devastation.  It is a championship offense.

And we saw it again against the Colts.  Before we read too much into the game, we must recognize that the Colts did not see this game as a vital showdown that was going to determine their fate.  Indianapolis examined what they had at stake, who they had banged up, and wisely exercised caution by holding out threat T.Y. Hilton and seemed to just want to get Sunday over with.  That isn't some excuse for the awful showing they had, but it is something we should understand about the rout that ensued.  The Cowboys took a willing opponent and placed them in a sleeper hold from the opening kickoff.  It certainly helped that when Dallas' opening drive stalled, the Colts were there to assist with a taunting personal foul, followed by a botched fake punt, and more dropped passes than you could hope for, but Dallas was not going to be denied on this day.

Dallas did on the first drive what they had done so often in Philadelphia the week before; put together one of those drives they are becoming known for.  This time it was 15 plays and rolled up 7 1st down conversions and devoured 8:24 off the clock.  Last week, in the game's 2nd drive, it was 16 plays, 7 1st downs gained, and 8:16 off the clock.  These show-of-might drives demoralize the opponent.  They are not "quick strike" with a huge play that will lead the highlight shows.  Instead, they are methodical marches, where it is often 5-yard gains repeated over and over again until the defense is standing in their own end zone.  It isn't to say the Cowboys offense cannot be stopped, but when you are witnessing these drives, it does appear rather obvious that they are not easily slowed down.

If the Cowboys offense is championship caliber, what about the defense?  Yesterday, they continued a stretch of football where they look aggressive and ready to attack on 3rd Down.  We know the key to the defense is to keep them from being over-exposed and to limit the amount of time they spend on the field.  That means the offense has to hold the ball, but the defense also has to use those 3rd Down situations to make a stop and get off the field.  Against the Colts, the Cowboys defense stopped 4 of the first 5 Colts 3rd Down attempts and mixed in a JJ Wilcox interception to put the game out of reach at 28-0 at the half.  This dependent defense is what it is, but when it is attached at the hip to the way the offense can run games, you can see how it can function and stay in games.

Honestly, it is difficult to fully evaluate that win on Sunday as the swarm of momentum destroyed a Colts team that did not look particularly ready to play.  Dewey McDonald dropped one of the easier passes on that fake punt you have ever seen, Dwayne Allen dropped several passes for being a well-respected tight end threat, and Jerrell Freeman insisted on giving Lance Dunbar a piece of his mind (and in doing so giving the Cowboys a fresh set of downs).  The Colts were a disaster and won't play a worse game all year.  But, that is why I am focusing on the bigger picture this morning of examining the Cowboys' state of the union as it sits at Christmas.

The Cowboys have pulled something off here that seemed impossible.  The most optimistic few in August might throw out 9 or 10 wins as the ceiling for this team, and now the Cowboys have even blown by those projections.  If they wish, a 12-win season awaits on Sunday, but a wise organization understands that the outcome of Sunday's regular season finale in Washington is just an obstacle in the path of a team that has now raised its sights appropriately to January.

In a way, you are tempted to be really happy for Tony Romo, Jason Garrett, and the crew of guys who represent this franchise that has evolved into a national punch-line for the last decade or so of disappointments.  But, in another way, you want to encourage them (even if it is just in your head) not to be happy or satisfied and to keep going and not to consider this as any sort of destination on the trip to a dream that exceeds the confines of your imagination.

This organization, and by extension, this fan base seems to have had their ability to "dare to dream" snuffed out over the past generation of mediocrity.  The losses, the humiliations, and the jokes had added up to a sum total that had rendered most hopeless.  Someday this organization might turn around, you would hear, but it likely won't be in the lifetimes of those who made this mess.

But, now, look at them.  It doesn't matter what anyone thought could happen in August, (despite saying this several times, I feel obligated to own my 6-10 prediction in Oxnard, yet again), the facts now are clear:

- This team is the NFC East Division Champion and no other member of that division will play beyond next week.

- This team is healthy and confident heading into the post-season.

- This team has demonstrated that they can compete with and, on its day, defeat the very best teams this league has to offer both at home and on the road.

- This team has a sustainable and repeatable offensive attack that does not require sleight of hand or absurd individual performances.

I realize it is difficult to pretend that history began in September in 2014, because it certainly did not.  Our sense of history works against us in two different ways in Dallas because it reminds us that the only thing that truly gets everyone worked into a frenzy is winning Super Bowls, but also reminds us that this current group is not worth considering that high bar because of their failures each and every year of their careers.

But, if you could just look at this Dallas Cowboys team based on information gained in 2014 alone, it might not be that difficult to imagine a scenario where they are playing in Seattle in a 1-game, winner-goes-to-the-Super Bowl contest.  The perfect symmetry of Tony Romo having one chance to cement his career credentials by winning in the same place where his reputation suffered in 2006 would be too much for the networks to handle.  And what then?  What would this Cowboys group do in a 1-game situation where all they have to do is win in Seattle (again) to go to the Super Bowl?

I know, I know, we are really jumping the gun here.  They have a long ways to go before you can even ponder that possibility.  But, that is the point.  It is now a possibility.  They have demonstrated in 2014 that past versions of this franchise (good and bad) do not matter.  Only this group matters for these playoffs.

And they are in.  So, treat yourself, because this team has a chance to make some real noise.

Go ahead, dare to dream.

Bob Sturm Scouts the Colts

The Colts arrive in Arlington having already clinched their AFC North crown, punching their ticket to the playoffs for the 14^th time in the last 16 years.  While much of that credit is attributed to the run of Peyton Manning, the last three seasons under Chuck Pagano and young Andrew Luck have been most impressive.  Luck, the first overall pick of the 2012 draft, started from the moment he arrived and has guided the Colts to a 32-14 record over those three years. 

But, there is much more about this Colts squad to consider, and watching them on tape over the last several weeks has brought a few more pieces to mind:

LT Anthony Castonzo

The Colts are certainly a team that does not place a very high premium on running the ball and therefore the quality of their pass protection is required to be excellent.  Castonzo, the first round pick in 2011, has developed nicely as protection for Luck’s blindside.  His movement skills with his feet and body position generally have him easily squared up on his man and he seldom is caught leaning in the wrong direction.  His blitz recognition has come a long way since his rookie year and is now a rock at left tackle for the Colts.  No tackle in the league has played more snaps this year than Castonzo, yet he has yielded only two sacks – both of the “coverage sack” variety.  The Colts will give up pressure, but seldom from the blind-side.

CB Vontae Davis

According to Pro Football Focus, no cornerback in the NFL has a lower opposing QB-rating when targeted than Vontae Davis.  Known for years as “Vernon’s little brother”, Vontae benefited from a change of scenery trade at the end of training camp in 2012 when Miami gave up on him and sent him to the Colts for a 2^nd round pick.  Last March he signed a 4-year, $39 million deal to stay in Indy, and has blossomed into a very difficult to attack defender.  Davis has great speed combined with physicality to go up and defend the run.  He can cover the best receiver on the field and he is always looking to attack an errant pass, even if it means gambling a bit.  His recovery is off the charts and can cover in both zone and man coverages.  He has not surrendered a touchdown all season long, and is certainly not short of confidence to make plays out on his island.  He is very impressive to study.

TE Coby Fleener and TE Dwayne Allen

Luck was drafted #1 overall in 2012, but the Colts then spent enormous resources building the offense around him by spending their next 3 picks on two tight ends and a slot receiver.  Those three picks turned out to be 2^nd round TE Coby Fleener, 3^rd round TE Dwayne Allen, and then traded their 4^th and 5^th rounders to get back into the 3^rd round and to take WR T.Y. Hilton.  All four of the picks have performed at high levels and the multiple tight end attack allows for the team to demonstrate balance and vertical threats from inside out, often sending the two tight-ends on corner routes simultaneously.  The versatility of the two tight ends, complimenting Hilton and Reggie Wayne and stressing safeties weekly, has been a massive weapon as their league-leading statistics would indicate.

Xs and Os: The Drive of the Season

Late in the week, we finally get a chance to "look at the tape" as Jason Garrett likes to say and examine some plays that we cannot fully digest on TV. I can't promise that every week we will be able to do this, but honestly, this is my favorite exercise of the week because only here can you fully appreciate how advanced and complex the NFL game can be sometimes.

Here, we are not looking to call anyone out, and we surely want to leave open the possibility of our eyes deceiving us and more than anything, I want to admit that I don't have the benefit of the coaches telling me what coverage they were in. So, sometimes, this diagnosis will be "pretty sure" rather than "100% sure" even though I am trying to get it right. I will make calls and try to hunt down the right answer, but I will just admit right here that we will try our best to be accurate but invariably, I will see something wrong.

But, let's pick plays that are interesting but not played out by this point of the week and have some fun talking Xs and Os. Feel free to tweet me @SportsSturm when a game shows you a play that you would like broken down and I will attempt to include it in this post.

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On Sunday, I thought we were looking at the Dallas Cowboys "drive of the year", as they were down to the Eagles, 24-21.  The stadium was rocking with Eagles fans going nuts as their team had scored 24 unanswered points.  At least, unanswered to that juncture.

The Cowboys could feel this game and the division slipping away.  Somebody had to do something quick.  There may be no more pivotal time then right there, right then.

The offense put together a march right down the field to steal the lead back and never give it back again.  This was a masterpiece, using 8 plays, just under 5 minutes, 5 personnel groupings, the same play twice, and several components working together to win a huge game.

As a witness of the evolution of this offense, I wanted to make sure that this drive was properly remembered in Cowboys 2014 lore.  Here is the recap of those 8 plays from the All-22's to give it the love it deserves:

Play #1: 3Q/5:36 - 1/10/22 - 22 Personnel - Murray +1

Open the drive in 22 personnel is a nice indication that there is no panic.  The Cowboys lost the lead, the stadium went nuts, but like we have seen all season, this will not impact Scott Linehan's call sheet.  Fullback lead right and it looks like Martin is trying to pull right but 72-Thornton is right on him and blows the play up by shoving Martin back into Clutts, while Parnell is planning on cleaning up Thornton but the timing was all shot.  Murray was going back inside, but Leary's cut-block wasn't great either.  Frederick pulled his job perfectly to the 2nd level and Tyron looks ok on the backside, but this play was a mess and the Cowboys only get a yard.  2nd Down.

Play #2: 3Q/4:54 - 2/9/23 - S02 Personnel - Dig to Dez +22 FD

Ok, this is one of the Cowboys newer toys; Shotgun 02 personnel (0RB, 2TE, 3WR).  They love running this out of shotgun with an empty backfield.  They ran it 7 times on Sunday - all 7 on 2nd down.  What this does is pretty much show the coverage of the Eagles to Romo in presnap.  He knows it is one of 2 possibilities with a high safety: 1) 5 man blitz with man under the safety or 2) 4 man rush with man under and a high safety as well as a robber in the middle (95-Kendricks).  That is what we have here and now Romo can use his eyes to move the robber and then find his matchup.  Dez is up top with Beasley in the slot running a shorter route.  Bryant is running the 15 yard Dig that he turns in at the 40 where Romo throws a low pass as the QB is trying to stay alive in the pocket until Dez can get the depth of his route (which takes time).  Tyron is having a difficult time holding off his man, but the throw is away and the Cowboys are out to nearly midfield on the easy catch as Bryant has Bradley Fletcher turned around (again).

Play #3: 3Q/4:10 - 1/10/45 - S11 Personnel - quick out to Witten +11 FD

This is a tricky blitz that you might not be looking for on 1st down and the Cowboys come out in Shotgun 11.  I think this demonstrates how locked in Tony Romo was in this game and on this drive, because bad things happen here if you aren't thinking.  4 targets are in route and the Eagles are blitzing 5, but certainly not the rushers you are expecting as both OLBs do not rush.  Barwin drops with Witten and Graham looks like he is waiting for Murray to release (he never does).  You can see Romo recognize and get the ball out to Witten who gets a first down easily, but let's look below at the protection and you will see how handy this play really was.

Pressures are not usually about bringing more than they can block these days.  Rather, they are trying to send guys in areas where you do not expect so they can still have enough in coverage, but also get home with just 5 men.  See above that Tyron never has a guy to block.  Martin and Frederick take the same guy.  So that leaves Leary on his man and the Eagles attacking that A-gap between 65-72 with 2 blitzers.  We don't see this much, but this is a Rex Ryan favorite.  Blitz the A-Gap with a LB to occupy Murray and then a trail blitzer (the other LB) right off his back shoulder who was hiding in the traffic.  When the timing is right, he arrives at the QB before anyone sees him.  You can see he is smacking Romo as the throw is delivered and #9 is tossed to the ground.  Credit the QB and watch Leary and Frederick both reach in vain at the last second when they see what is happening to them.  Fun stuff.

Play #4 - 3Q/3:42 - 1/10/44> - 12 Personnel - Murray +1

They always say that stunts and games from the DL are the best way to deal with zone blocking as it tends to screw up assignments and the unified plan of the OL.  Here is a good case of that as the Cowboys have 12 personnel on 1st down, with both tight ends off Tyron Smith on the left.  They will run an inside zone, which doesn't work because the two inside players cross each other into the Cowboys interior.  Also, Jason Witten has a real chore with Fletcher Cox, and we must admit that Cox swatted Witten aside without trouble.  So, Cox forces the play inside, but the inside guys are having trouble gaining order with the stunt, and the linebackers are untouched and get to Murray without impediment.  1 yard, but another case of the Eagles having plenty of plans for 1st down runs.

Play #5 - 3Q/3:01 - 2/9/43 - 13 Personnel - Murray middle +21 FD

In 2011, on this very field, the Eagles humiliated the Cowboys 34-7 and ran this very play over and over again with great success.  I wrote about it back then, if you care to re-live a rather ugly evening for the Cowboys.  Anyway, it is the counter trap and they would run it right at DeMarcus Ware out of 11 personnel with Brent Celek smashing across at Ware.  Look at this play - 55-Graham is lined up across from Tyron, and then Smith blocks down and leaves Graham untouched.  He runs right at the ball and surely thinks he is about to destroy a play, when....wham!  Gavin Escobar meets him and cleans him up as Murray runs right off his back and through a tunnel of humanity to daylight.  Great job by Murray to dart through the hole even if it isn't there (like Cole Trickle pounding the gas through the smoke in Days of Thunder) and showing nice burst for that point of the game.  Frederick and Leary were both really good at walling off their men here, too.

Play #6 - 3Q/2:15 - 1/10/22 -  11 Personnel  - Murray -1 on run blitz

Here is what happens when you run a zone stretch right into a run blitz.  If it is man coverage, this has a chance, but the slot corner heads right at Murray and is unaccounted for, so Murray does what he can, but Bennie Logan plays the stretch nicely and shakes Leary to make the play.  Minus 1.

Play #7 - 3Q/1:37 - 2/11/23 - S02 - Dig to Dez +21 FD

Cowboys have a 2nd down so they go back to S02, but the Eagles change up the coverage to make sure the Cowboys don't have too easy of a time.  Here, they are bracketing Witten in the middle, man to the left, and a zone (3 over 2) on the right with Dez and Cole Beasley.  The Eagles want to switch on the low shallow route, as Fletcher peels off to Beasley, but 22-Boykin seems a bit confused on his role and 27-Jenkins is playing deep.  You can see Jenkins get up and yell at Boykin, because Dez runs the same Dig route and it is an even easier throw and catch down to the 2.

Play #8 - 3Q/0:50 - 1/G/2 - 13 Personnel - Murray middle touchdown

This is where the beef can be dominant.  13 personnel, and the Cowboys force you to declare your intentions or pay.  Romo hands the ball off and starts walking to the sideline with his fist in the air.  Leary and Frederick usher 91-Cox out of the lane and wall him off and then 29 heads right for that gap and must fall around Kendricks and into the end zone.  Martin holds off Logan and the touchdown is on the board. Then for good measure, Leary falls on Murray with a "good intentions" belly flop to clear people off him.

The Cowboys took the lead back and the game by the scruff of the neck.  It was something special to behold live and a versatile and balanced show of force.  Very impressive work from the offense.  This offense is as strong as the Cowboys have had in many years.

After the game, Jason Garrett addressed his team in the locker-room: "When it went to 24-21, I said "let's see what we've got".  Let's see what this football team is all about.  They started hooting and hollering, and you know what we did?  (Garrett stomps his feet)  We (expletive) dug in. Everybody in this room.  Every player, every coach, every staff member made a (expletive) difference.  We made stops, we made plays, we did the things winning teams do at nut-cutting time.  It's a Hell of a job.  I tell you this all the time: "it's about mental toughness, it's about focus, it's about will, it's about fight."  And that was on display tonight."

Marinelli Report - Week 14 - Philadelphia

Anybody who follows the NFL closely is well aware of the turnover statistics that are cited that indicate the team that wins the turnover battle in a game (even just by one turnover) wins 75-85% of all NFL games.  This fluctuates from year to year, but it remains in that general spot over the course of league history.  If you are curious, in 2014, the team that wins the turnover battle has a record of 138-41.  That win percentage equates to 77% which is actually a bit lower than usual, but the application is clear.  You must take care of the football.

The Cowboys, incidentally, are 7-0 when they win the turnover battle and 2-4 when they lose it.  The wins against the Seahawks and Texans were both games in which they actually lost the turnover battle.  Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 26-5 when they win the turnover battle (84%), while 6-26 (19%) when they lose the turnover margin.  I have always been amazed at how convincing these numbers are league-wide and the Cowboys are no exception.  Even the slightest margin in turnover differential correlates to winning more than any single statistic in the game and this never seems to change over the course of NFL history.

On Sunday night in Philadelphia, the Eagles - the most turnover-happy team in all of football this year - exercised their trademark generosity yet again with a 4-giveaway performance and the Cowboys won the differential with a +3, something that they have done only one other time this season (with the win versus New Orleans).

But, here is a statistic that pertains only to the defense and surely is something that the entire unit discusses behind closed doors.  When they are able to generate takeaways, as in plural, they win.  Every time in 2014.  This chart shows the last 2 seasons (we know them as the 4-3 defense years) and you can see the pretty convincing takeaway/win relationship (thanks to ProFootballReference.com):

12-2, with the only 2 losses coming in games where the opponent cancelled out the turnovers with 500 or 600 yards of offense.  Otherwise, the Cowboys win every time they get at least 2.

So, now the question is, how do we get takeaways?  This is trickier to sort out, because coaches have been trying to figure this out since the beginning of time.  How do we get takeaways?  Well, fumbles are generally technique issues, unless it is of the sack/strip variety where your blindside hit knocks the ball loose (like what happened to Romo on Sunday).  But interceptions happen more when 2 things are happening:  1) the team throwing the ball is behind and/or 2) the team throwing the ball is facing 3rd Down and long.  Which, if you think about it, makes sense when you look at Mark Sanchez as he played a nearly perfect game on Thanksgiving as he played the entire day with the lead and therefore could rely strictly on high-percentage throws that he wanted to make.

However, in this game, he was behind the whole night (the Eagles never started a possession with the lead in the entire game), and had to try throws a bit more aggressive in nature, and we saw the results.  His first interception came down 28-24 and facing a 3rd down and 7 yards to go.  And, his second interception came on the first play after the 2 minute warning as he had to throw downfield and Bruce Carter dropped into the path of the throw.  Bubble screens are seldom picked off, but you can't throw bubble screens as much when you are behind.

Which brings us to the question about this multiple-takeaway statistic:  Is it correlation or causation?  When takeaways happen they can turn a game, but in general, are they the seeds of a victory or are they the fruits of a victory?

I realize that the samples need to be expanded and much of these deep thoughts are more anecdotal from one team having one season, but it sure seems that when the Cowboys have "game control" and are keeping a team behind in the score and in the time of possession, the opponent gets more antsy and aggressive and that is when the Cowboys end up with interceptions.  In other words, is this another byproduct of running the football and investing in a dominating offensive line?  Maybe.  It isn't like the Cowboys are an interception machine or far exceeding takeaways from previous years, but on Sunday, it seemed the object of the game was to make Sanchez have to throw the ball down the field - and it worked like a charm.  If they weren't ahead, he might not have ever had to attempt anything like that.

DEFENSIVE PARTICIPATION:  This was one of those games where the Eagles were barely on the field, so everyone's snaps were going to be way down.  But, I thought it was interesting that two reserves made a real impact in the game.  Terrell McClain was a real force inside on several run plays in his 17 snaps and Bruce Carter in just 24 snaps had some of his better splash moments in a few months.  Henry Melton and Anthony Spencer were pretty quiet in their work this week, but I thought this was when Tyrone Crawford and Jeremy Mincey were very good and we will look closer at their work tomorrow in the Xs and Os portion of our week.   All snap counts from ProFootballFocus.com.

WEEK 15 vs EAGLES - DEFENSIVE NUMBERS

Some disturbing numbers in situational football (3rd Downs/Red Zone), but overall, snaps were way down and 5.5 yards per play?  Excellent work.  Also, they held the Eagles to under 300 yards.  That is fantastic work.

SPLASH PLAYS

A reminder of what a splash play is by clicking on the link:

SPLASHES VS EAGLES - Week 15

Sacks and takeaways.  A week of impactful defensive moments.

2014 SEASON TOTALS

Career Totals   2013 Totals   2012 Totals    2011 Totals

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PASSING CHART

During the Marinelli Report, we attempt to chart how the opposing quarterback fared against the DAL pass rush (unlike Decoding Linehan, when we chart drive progression). The key in the bottom end zone defines how many rushers came during a given throw. Each line entails where the ball was thrown from, trailing to the (general) point where it was caught. Dotted lines are incomplete passes.

Week 15 Summary

The following chart will demonstrate that the Eagles QB situation is not very good.  I don't think Nick Foles is very good, but he just received some major job security with the last month of football Mark Sanchez has put together.

PRESSURE REPORT

This segment of the defensive study is simply to find out how well the Cowboys are doing at getting pressure on the opposing QB.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS ALLOWED (+20 Yards)

SACKS AND INTERCEPTIONS

PERFORMANCE AGAINST THE BLITZ

Each week we calculate how opposing quarterbacks fare against the Dallas blitz. Consider this the raw data behind the passing chart.

Wk 1 - Colin Kaepernick: 4/8, 74 Yds, 1 TD, 1 SACK

Wk 2 - Jake Locker: 3/6, 22 Yds

Wk 3 - Austin Davis: 4/7, 42 Yds, 1 INT

Wk 4 - Drew Brees: 6/8, 68 Yds, 1 TD

Wk 5 - Ryan Fitzpatrick: 6/11, 41 Yds, 2 FD

Wk 6 - Russell Wilson: 2/6, 25 Yds, 1 FD

Wk 7 - Eli Manning: 7/8, 75 Yds, 4 FD

Wk 8 - Colt McCoy: 5/7, 66 Yds, 2 FD

Wk 9 - Carson Palmer: 5/7, 42 Yds, 2 FD

Wk 10 - Blake Bortles: 4/6, 47 Yds, 2 FD, 3 Sack

Wk 12 - Eli Manning: 6/6, 75 Yds, 5 FD

Wk 13 - Mark Sanchez: 2/2, 16 Yds

Wk 14 - Jay Cutler: 6/9, 98 Yds, 3 FD, 1 TD

Wk 15 - Mark Sanchez: 4/5, 24 Yds, 1 FD, 1 Sack

2014 Total: 64/96, 66 Cmp%, 715 Yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 22 FD, 4 Sack - 94.7 QB Rating

BLITZ REPORT

Each week we monitor how often the Cowboys send pressure on passing plays.

Wk 1 - SF: 9/21 - Blitzed 33%

Wk 2 - at TEN: 6/38 - Blitzed 15%

Wk 3 - STL: 7/42 - Blitzed 16%

Wk 4 - NO: 8/46 - Blitzed 17%

Wk 5 - HOU: 11/26 - Blitzed 42%

Wk 6 - at SEA: 7/31 - Blitzed 22%

Wk 7 - NYG: 8/35 - Blitzed 22%

Wk 8 - WAS: 8/35 - Blitzed 22%

Wk 9 - AZ: 7/36 - Blitzed 19%

Wk 10 - JAX: 9/45 - Blitzed 20%

Wk 12 - NYG: 7/42 - Blitzed 16%

Wk 13 - PHI: 3/31 - Blitzed 9%

Wk 14 - CHI: 9/51 - Blitzed 17%

Wk 15 - PHI: 6/32 - Blitzed 18%

2014 Total: 97/476 - Blitzed 20% 

2013 Totals:  140/673 - 20.8%

2012 Totals:  134/551 - 24.3%

And, here are the full season numbers to date:

Pretty clear what Rod was thinking with Sanchez.  Keep him there with 4 for most of the day and sprinkle in some different looks on 3rd Down.  Nothing complicated here.

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SUMMARY AND LOOK AHEAD:

This is without question where the Cowboys hoped to be when they turned the calendar to December.  They had to figure out how to get wins in Chicago and Philadelphia, and if they did then the season could still be salvaged nicely.  However, just putting yourself in this position is not going to be good enough if you slip on the way in.

Enter into the conversation the Indianapolis Colts and a team that has more 20-yard passes than anybody and that is a huge margin.  To date, the Colts have 70 explosive pass plays and 2nd place is Denver all the way back at 57.  In fact, the distance between the Colts and the 2nd place Broncos is identical as it is from the Broncos down to #17 (Buffalo and New England) in these rankings which both have 44 explosive pass plays.

The Colts are also #1 in passing yards and #1 in offensive points scored. The Cowboys are right at league average in the number of "big plays" they have allowed, but the ability for the Colts to turn this into a track meet will be something that Marinelli and the crew will be working on to stop all week.

But, they won't have Mark Sanchez to depend upon this week, as Andrew Luck strolls in leading the NFL in yards and touchdown passes.  The ability to defend a big-time threat like T.Y. Hilton with an effective tight end in Coby Fleener and a veteran #2 in Reggie Wayne are all legitimate tests.  It will be quite interesting to see if the Cowboys try to replicate the Saints game-plan and just play coverage while forcing Luck to take check-downs because of a heavily populated secondary.

Once again, in a game with so much riding on it and the offense experiencing some health concerns (to say the least), plenty falls on the shoulders of this pesky defense to stand tall at home.  Talk about a perfect time for someone to step up and make a play against Luck, who has thrown more picks (14) than anyone in the league but Jay Cutler and Blake Bortles.  Step up, cause multiple takeaways, and sprint into the playoffs.

Truly, a great test to find out if this year is different.