I am beginning to get my act together with regards to the NFL Draft. I thought that this year, I might as well post my notes as I collect them, and therefore you can follow along while I get rolling. I try to collect stuff from as many sources as possible, and while I will look at the prospects, I leave most of that homework to Norm. I spend much more time on the teams involved, and their current situations, including their primary needs entering the draft and what they did last year to get better.
One of my many sources is the NFL Channel’s program, Playbook. Since they started with the AFC West this week, so will I. Here are my notes for that division, and I will continue to post my stuff as I put it together. Enjoy, and good luck deciphering my notes!
AFC WEST
Oakland Raiders (5-11)
Added Randy Moss, Lamont Jordan
Offense 17th In 2004, 25th in 2003, Defense 30th, 31st in PPG vs.
RB: Zereoue in 2004 (upgraded with Jordan) Rushing offense worst in NFL, worst in Raider history-
Gabriel, Moss, Porter, Curry – sweet receiving corps
Lost Napoleon Harris in Moss trade, Ray Buchanan gone.
No Pass Rush (31st in sacks), no interceptions (30th in takeaways) = no defense
30th or worse in 8 defensive categories.
2004 Draft Gallery, Jake Grove S Schweigert 3rd
Needs = Defense! They run the 3-4. Could use DE, LB – should switch to 4-3?
Sapp is out of place at 3-4 DE.
No 1st round pick – 1st pick #38
Kansas City (7-9)
Add Kendrell Bell
Offense 1st, Defense 31st (29th in 2003)
No pass rush, no secondary
Offense is inconsistent on the road, and in the 4th Q. 2005 O Starters 8 over 30!
Lost D Blaylock, V Holliday
29th in scoring D, 31st in Total D, 32 in Pass D, 32 in yds per/play
Pick #15 – Need Defense – DE Pollack, LB Merriman, CB Carlos Rogers
Later need WR
No 3rd round pick
In 2004, Jared Allen 4th RD had 9 sacks – led NFL Rookies
2004 draft – Saivii DT, Wilson TE
Denver Broncos (10-6)
Offense 5th, Defense 4th excellent stopping the run
The secondary was weak even with adding Lynch, Bailey
Offense was great running again – Droughns, Griffin, Bell
Too Many turnovers (Plummer), not enough takeaways
Add I Gold LB, B Hamilton G, and G Warren DT (trade Cle)
Lost D Neil, K Kennedy (Det), R Hayward (10.5 sacks to Jax)(also lost Berry in 2004)
Kept J Putzier at TE after Jets Offer Sheet
A Lelie has developed, but need better play from Plummer
2004 Draft – DJ Williams, Tatum Bell, Darius Watts WR, J LeSueur DB – ALL 10 picks made the team!
Needs Pass Rusher ?Demarcus Ware DE/OLB (Troy), Shaun Cody DT USC?
#25 pick - Front 4 on D
WR Depth, OL Depth
San Diego Chargers 12-4 (lost to Jets at home in playoffs)
Franchised Drew Brees $8m (too much money with Rivers, too) 27/7 in 2004
Offense 10th, Defense 18th
GM AJ Smith with a draft day steal in 2004 (Eli Manning deal)
Tomlinson 4000 All purpose yards in 2 years!
Young OL, Antonio Gates – can they duplicate 2004?
Secondary ranked 31st against pass – too many home run plays against
Add B Jue – Lost T Dwight, H Houck OL Coach
Need More from WR, Pass Rush (30th in sacks)
#12, #28 in 1st Round – #12 M Spears? M Clayton? #28 K Burnett LB? R Brown WR?
2004 Draft – P Rivers, N Kaeding K, Igor Olshansky (16 starts), Nick Hardwick C 3rd (14 starts), Shane Olivea, OG (16 Starts) All 11 picks are on the roster!
Run 3-4 under D.C.Wade Phillips
Very Few Links:
Sharper signs with Vikings …
The genius/cheapness of the Vikings cap situation by Pat Kirwan …
ESPN Insider story on Orel Hershiser/Rangers’ pitching …If you are not a subscriber, here is a taste…
In 2003, Drese pitched 46 innings for the Rangers and posted a 6.85 ERA. In 2004, Drese pitched 208 innings and posted a 4.20 ERA. The rotation in 2004 was better for two reasons, and two reasons only: The Rangers signed Kenny Rogers, and Ryan Drese somehow found himself.
Actually, Drese's transformation isn't any sort of secret. Before last season he relied on his four-seam fastball, resulting in decent strikeout totals and ugly ERA's. But Hershiser, an acknowledged master of the two-seam, sinking fastball, convinced Drese to junk his four-seamer and rely instead on the two-seamer, and the results were striking. His strikeout rate dropped, but his ground-ball rate went up; his home-run rate fell, and his 4.20 ERA made him the star of the rotation.
Kudos to Hershiser.
However, before we nominate him for election to the Imaginary Wing for Coaches in the Hall of Fame, let's remember that 1) it's just one season, and 2) we've heard stories like this before. Anybody remember when Esteban Loaiza learned to throw a superior two-seamer and was going to be a perennial Cy Young candidate? Which isn't to say Drese isn't going to wind up winning 150 games. But pitchers who strike out four batters per nine innings don't typically enjoy great success in the majors, and we need more than one season to think Drese is one of the rare exceptions.
With regard to the Rangers pitching success stories, I emailed Gregg Elkin, Rangers P.R. Director, to find some additional evidence about the performance of the bullpen. I was particularly interested in numbers that support the idea that once the Rangers starters got the ball to the pen with the lead or a tie, the bullpen stood firm. Here is what he sent me:
last year our record when leading after 6 was 71-5, leading after 7 was 74-5 and leading after 8 was 80-2
Relievers: The Rangers bullpen was 34-15 and led the AL with a 3.46 ERA (207 ER/538.2 IP), the 3rd lowest relief ERA in the major leagues behind St. Louis (3.01) and Los Angeles (3.06). It marked the first time Texas has led the AL in relief ERA since posting a 3.23 figure in 1983. Texas relievers had the highest winning percentage in the majors (.694), with the highest save percentage (52-66, 78.8%) and most holds (76) of any American League bullpen. Bullpen posted club records with 34 wins and 52 saves, 2nd most saves in the AL and 5 more than previous club mark of 47
in 1999. Staff permitted the AL's lowest percentage of inherited runners to score (26.4%, 79/299) and ranked 4th in the league in innings. The 3.46 relief ERA is the 7th lowest in Rangers history, best figure for a Texas bullpen since a 3.40 mark in 1986. Relievers made the AL's 2nd most appearances at 468, just shy of Cleveland's league leading 479.
Francisco Cordero set a club record with 49 saves, 6 more than the previous club high and 2nd highest total in the majors behind Yankees' Mariano Rivera (53). Carlos Almanzar posted 20 holds, matching the 4th highest total in club history.
1 comment:
Bob, do you have a copy of Baseball Prospectus 2005? I love their narratives for each team, and I also like the way they approach the game and evaluate players. What do you think of them?
I don't work for them or anything, but I've enjoyed their sort of analysis (big on OPS, the concept of "Value Over Replacement Player" as a measure of worth, etc) since about '92 when a friend (and Mariner fan) turned me on to it, long before "Moneyball". Maybe you've addressed the whole "Moneyball" philosophy before, but I couldn't find it. If so, my apologies.
FWIW, the BP guys peg the Rangers as about a .500 team this year, well behind Anaheim and somewhat behind Oakland. You said earlier you would talk some more about the Ranger home/road offense, so maybe you'll talk about all this a bit at that time if you haven't already.
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