Stars Win a Thriller

Wow.

What else can you say sometimes when leaving the arena after a game like that?

Wow, because the Chicago Blackhawks look like the absolute real deal. I am always skeptical about a team that's two most marquee-worthy players are both 21, wondering if they will have the fortitude to push through in the spring time when the 7 game wars begin, but that team is deep, talented, and has a nice edge, too.

Surely, goaltending will be questioned along the way, but over half the season Christobal Huet and Antti Niemi have been solid. Last night, Huet certainly allowed a few softies, but we saw Chicago on full display last night.

They were on a roll, they are strong and talented, and they were playing very well, with home-and-home sweeps of their division rivals Detroit and Nashville without even going to overtime once. 8 points up for grabs? They grabbed all 8. And their opponents got 0.

Then, last night, in front of a holiday crowd, the Blackhawks started the game with a show of force that will be talked about for quite a while. In the first period they had 21 shots (16 in the first 10 minutes) and a power play that bordered on unfair. They swarm the net with such reckless abandon that you felt for Marty Turco trying to find the puck in the mess. And 3 times, he didn't. Chicago scored 3 in the 1st Period, and you actually felt ok about only giving up 3. They were that good.

But, also, "Wow", is a deserved word for the way the Stars bounced out of that. There are so many games in a season where there are times where a team emotionally cuts bait with 1 out of 82 games and lives to fight another day. It is not something anyone is proud of, but it exists in pro athletics for sure. So, when the Stars went to the room after the first 20 minutes, you had to wonder if they were emotionally beaten already.

Not a chance.

2 goals to start the 2nd period, one from Brad Richards and Loui Eriksson teaming up, and then a very fortunate centering pass from Steve Ott that went off a Chicago forward and into the net. Somehow, despite enduring a hockey clinic, the Stars had a 4-3 lead less than 22 minutes into a 60 minute game that will have to go down as one of the craziest of the season.

For the next 38 minutes, it turned into an intense playoff-like game with hitting, bad attitudes, and tense moments. Patrick Kane, who may be the biggest hope for USA hockey since Modano/Roenick/Hull, scored again with 3 seconds left in the 2nd period, and we again questioned if that was going to turn the game to the more talented Blackhawks.

But, Wow. The 3rd Period was awesome. Daley hits Ott up the middle, who finishes a break with a sweet shot to the top corner past Niemi. 5-4, Stars with 16 minutes to play.

So, would 5 be enough? Would the Stars try to milk home a lead for 15 minutes against this gang? To their immense credit, they did not. They stayed after it with attacks and pushed for goal #6. It never happened, but in doing so, relieved much of the pressure around Marty Turco. Not all of it, mind you, as Turco still had to do plenty of work, and actually had a pretty good game, even though the stats will show he allowed 4 goals. If you saw the game, you know it could have been 8.

The Stars got the win, with some very intense final seconds, but 5-4 gave the Stars another win over a top opponent. Why can't they play the bottom feeders with the same results as they do against the Blackhawks and Sharks? I am sure Crawford would love to figure that one out.

My only regret was that it was another game where so many Stars fans were frustrated that they could not see the game on their television (this time it was Versus against Directv again, but really, isn't it always something this season with the TV broadcast rights?). Hopefully, that will be worked out very soon.

Otherwise, what a night. Which can best be summed up with 3 letters.

W-O-W

Football 301: Decoding Garrett - Week 16

The win over Washington broken down. Surely, we see that the Wildcat/Razorback effort is still extremely experimental. I am quite curious if they continue to try
and roll that out as the games get more and more "imperative".

Overall, these numbers demonstrate what we have seen all along; A very strong offense who at the moment of truth may not be able to get that yard, but otherwise, the evidence is such that we can suggest this is a formidable unit that gives its opponents significant stress in gameplan choices.

The questions of the RB rotation continue, and Tashard Choice's role continues to diminish it seems. Felix Jones shows all manner of burst and promise, and now his work load is steadily increasing, but it appears they still have no belief that he can handle the job in short yardage. Perhaps that is a spot where Choice would be worth a look. This is a major issue, of course, if this team must get a yard, they must have a solution. It would be easier if Marion Barber would simply take the decision out of play by getting that yard.

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	2	15	2-15	0-0
12	9	36	2-4	7-32
13	0	0	0-0	0-0
21	8	115	5-19	3-96
22	14	43	11-44	3-(-1)
31	0	0	0-0	0-0
WC22	2	-13	2-(-13)	0-0
S21	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S11	26	169	7-40	19-129
S12	7	28	0-0	7-28
Totals	69	393	29-109	39-284

Table Tutorial

Definition of the Personnel Groups, click here .

Football 301: Targets and Sacks - Week 16

Not Romo's best day of the month, but a very effective evening for the passing attack. And the trends in the offense are very interesting to notice as we get to the most crucial time of the year...

Target Distribution:

Targets - Week 16 at Washington

Name	Targets	Catches	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Austin	10	9	92	7/0/0
Witten	7	6	117	4/0/0
Barber	5	4	30	3/0/0
Jones	4	4	27	0/0/0
Crayton	3	1	16	1/0/0
Williams	4	1	4	0/1/1
Bennett	2	0	0	0/0/0
Hurd	1	0	0	0/0/0
Ogletree	1	0	0	0/0/0
Totals	37	25	286	15/1/1

Table Tutorial

Austin = 9-10 for 7 First Downs. Witten = 6-7 for 4 First Downs. Here are your Top 2 targets on the team. In a few days, I want to compare Austin's year to Owens as a Dallas Cowboy, but it is clear that there is little to no drop off. The real question is becoming who is the #3 target? Roy or Crayton?

Season Target Distribution To Date:

Name	Targets	Catches	%	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Witten	117	87	74%	954	43/1/3
Austin	116	74	64%	1230	39/11/2
Williams	85	38	45%	596	21/7/1
Crayton	61	34	56%	523	17/4/1
Barber	32	25	78%	208	10/0/0
Bennett	29	15	52%	159	8/0/0
Choice	22	15	68%	132	7/0/0
Jones	19	16	84%	109	4/0/0
Hurd	12	7	58%	132	3/1/1
Phillips	7	4	57%	48	2/0/0
Ogletree	7	6	86%	81	4/0/0
Anderson	3	1	33%	5	0/0/
Totals	510	323	63%	4172	165/24/8

Table Tutorial

The Morning After: Cowboys 17, Redskins 0

Anytime you beat a division rival on the road with such ease that a 17-0 final score is still the source of some level of discontent, you know that either A) you are a pretty good team, B) your opponent is certainly not, or C) both of the above.

I choose C.

I imagine that all accounts of the Cowboys' 10th victory of the 2009 season will focus on the importance of taking care of business and setting up the chance to play for a NFC East division title in 6 days time. We will spend the next few thousand words discussing things that went right or wrong, but I would find it simply irresponsible, on a day when teams like the Saints and Giants would welcome a less-than-perfect win, to point out the absolute lead story was that this Cowboys team responded very, very well to the Saints victory by rolling out a road-trouncing of the rival Washington Redskins.

The Redskins, as we knew all week (or all decade), are a mess of the highest order. Their organization seems to often hamstring their own team's efforts with the insane nature in which they do business. No matter how goofy Jerry Jones makes things in Dallas, to suggest that he has set up the most chaotic environment in the NFL is to ignore the Raiders and Redskins. So, at least we have that going for us.

The story of Game #15 for me would have to be the precision with which the Cowboys offense seemed to operate with again - only to leave many, many points on the field due to the inability to get the last yard at the moment of truth. The Cowboys called 5 running plays on 3rd and 4th down with 2 yards or less to go. All 5 were some variation of a power run to Marion Barber. And all 5 failed. It is certainly not difficult to imagine the trouble that can cause down the road. If you combine that with a kicking situation that is less than rock-solid, you can understand the ice the Cowboys stand on is exceedingly thin. Think about it: The Cowboys are in a crucial game with huge stakes (every game from here until the Super Bowl would qualify as a crucial game with high stakes) and they face a 4th and half of a yard from the opponents 31 yard line. Do you trust the kicker to make a 49 yarder? No. Do you trust your OL and RB to be able to get that last 18 inches? How could you after the issues against the Chargers and Redskins in the last few weeks? The quandary is there for all to see.

So, why can't this team move the chains when they need to most? Especially when I have spent the season talking about how this team seems to be a solid power-run team. Well, running in "21" or "22" personnel is one thing in normal down and distance situations because on 2nd and 8, you do not face 10 or 11 in the box. But, when it is 4th and half of a yard, the defense knows what you want to do. They plug a jumbo personnel group right at your OL, and if your OL cannot push back, the RB doesn't have much of a chance. This is not to say that Barber is not to blame - because he is. Barber looks tentative and frankly a bit lacking with his usual strength in busting through with his relentless abandon. But, I also have to question the boys up front getting and winning their individual blocks. We have quite a few plays to consider in these last 3 weeks that fall under the "short yardage" banner, and the fact is that there are a number of reasons they are not getting it done. But, I don't think you blame Jason Garrett (this time). What else would you call on 4th and 1? You play the percentages. And the percentages suggest that any NFL offense should be able to get 18 inches. But, especially this NFL offense, who has many rich men on that offensive line - some who attend the Pro Bowl on a regular basis. This isn't Garrett's problem. This is on the players.

But, otherwise, the passing game still looks sharp - with Miles Austin and Jason Witten again combining to show us how elite they really are. Austin had 10 balls thrown his way, caught 9 and moved the chains 7 times. Witten had 7 passes in his direction, caught 6 for 4 first downs. The efficiency with which those 2 have operated this year have almost made the frustrations of watching Roy Williams a story that while annoying, does not seem to hamstring the offense dramatically.

The defense was very good at snuffing out any of the feeble attacks the Redskins could mount. This was not a stiff test for them, but it was more of the same from the last several weeks, with Ware and Spencer on the flanks looking the part of destructive OLBs in a 3-4 defense that make production extremely difficult for most offenses.

Other observations from the completion of the first season sweep of Washington since 2004:

* Let's start with Joe DeCamillis who was in the hospital at the time of the game with a "sudden attack of appendicitis" according to Evan Grant. Man, that guy has had a rough 2009. The Special teams coach suffered a broken neck back in May during the practice facility collapse, and now will stay in a Washington hospital until Wednesday. I think most of us have appreciated his improvements to the special teams, but for some reason writing about his coaching seems a bit irrelevant when the guy is still in his hospital bed, so let's wish him a speedy recovery and get on with some of the other details. However, I should say this: When you talk to guys who work for the Cowboys - you often get the claim that he is a great candidate to be a future NFL head coach.

* Keith Brooking has been such a great addition to this team. He makes plays and he brings intensity. I have no idea what that audio routine proved that NBC showed of his "WWF-style" pre-game rant, but it did bring a smile to my face. After the Zach Thomas era came and left with little result or effect, I was not overly optimistic about what the Brooking signing might mean. But, the intangibles that he has presented this squad seems to be just what was needed. But, as we have found over the years, the ability to speak in the lockerroom often is dictated by the ability to make a real difference on the field. He, obviously, can do both.

* It is clear to me that Cris Collinsworth has no idea who Alex Ovechkin is.

* That Touchdown pass on the 1st drive of the game was such a thing of beauty that further demonstrates that Tony Romo is a player with rare talents. He doesn't panic in the face of a pass rush, and is more than willing to buy that extra split second to make a play. That particular play looked dead in the water with Kedric Golston breathing down his neck, but in typical Romo fashion, when he is in the red zone he seems to develop even a better feel for what is available. He lobbed that pass on a perfect trajectory to Roy Williams and scored a TD that was beautiful. The ball floated right over the hands of DeAngelo Hall and right in front of Reed Doughty.

* So, London Fletcher's hit on Patrick Crayton is not a penalty? Blow to the head and defenseless receiver rules don't apply if they don't feel like calling it?

* If you read this blog on a regular basis, you know I was not terribly bullish on shares of Doug Free when Marc Colombo broke his leg in Green Bay. But, I must tip my hat to the young man and suggest that he shows plenty of promise. I still think he can stand to gain some strength, but he appears to have plenty of fight and desire, as well as solid quickness for a tackle. If a guy enters with no experience to a team that is on a playoff run, then plays 6 weeks without any sort of train wreck games that cost you, then it is time to declare his showing a solid success. I do wonder about short yardage with him versus Colombo (evidence shows this team was quite a bit better when Colombo was there), but otherwise, Free looks like a keeper.

* NBC's game broadcast always has more information and statistics than the other networks. I assume this is because they can focus on 1 game rather than the 6 or 7 that Fox and CBS must prepare for, but regardless, I enjoy the numbers that they produce. In particular, the stat of Roy Williams leading the NFL in "on-target drops" with 10 was a number that merely confirmed our beliefs. I think it might be harsh to call that interception last night Roy's fault completely - as the ball may have been a tad high - but, I need Roy to out battle Carlos Rogers for position on that play. It always looks like he has half as much fight for the ball that he needs.

* 1 play after that interception, Anthony Spencer (with help from Igor Olshansky) tried to take the ball right back on a sack that almost resulted in a fumble strip, too. Spencer looks so confident right now, and you can clearly see that when a pass rusher is no longer satisfied with just the sack. He wants to take that ball, too. And he came darn close. I think Spencer's breakout stretch is continuing quite well.

* I don't believe Terence Newman enjoys dealing with Santana Moss. His interception early was a real momentum changer, but through the night, anytime Moss grabbed one of those WR screens (which appears to be about the only route on the Redskins' route tree), Newman looked fairly uncomfortable trying to contain, control, and tackle. Moss has given him fits for so many years, and I believe Newman would be happy to be done with him.

* Albert Haynesworth is an absolute impossible matchup. I am not sure I have ever seen Kyle Kosier tossed around like #92 caused last night. Albert is a handful, and while I agree that he is a bad investment for a team like Washington that possesses so many holes that spending a huge chunk of change on Haynesworth doesn't make sense. However, he is tremendous quality. And he is unblockable in certain spots. And, he is perhaps the best reason the Cowboys couldn't win their blocks on those short yardage situations. So, I understand this idea that Washington overpaid and that it likely will not work. I also understand that his conduct this past week is not admirable in any way. But, wow. He is unstoppable.

* I am very much on the record with my opinion of Wade Phillips. I think he should have been fired in the lockerroom after 44-6. But, since he wasn't, I wonder where we are now. They are 10-5, and have a chance to win their division. If they do, they will host a playoff game with an 11-5 record. If they win the first playoff game in 13 seasons, we would have to admit progress was made. That is alot of "ifs" but, if those "ifs" happen, how do you fire him?

* Jay Ratliff is awesome. And there is no bigger punctuation mark for a big Cowboys performance than a Ratliff sack celebration. What a stud.

So, 10 wins. A playoff berth. And a rematch with the hated Eagles for a division crown on Sunday afternoon. This is what you want. This is riveting stuff. Who knew 2 weeks ago that the season was going to take this turn?

Now, Green Bay and Arizona play in Week 17, and the Eagles are here. All 4 teams are likely to play during the Wildcard weekend, with the only things assured are that Arizona will be a home team and that Green Bay will be on the road. Beyond that, it is all in front of us.

Strap in.

Game Plan Friday: Washington Redskins

The great thing about beating the New Orleans Saints is that it shows us all that the Dallas Cowboys are capable of playing well, and beating a quality opponent in a game that matters. Put another way, that game proves that the Cowboys are a good team.

The bad thing about beating the New Orleans Saints is that you have to play again this week and prove that last week wasn't the same concept as a "broken clock is right twice a day". Could you imagine? Could you imagine beating the Saints and restoring the hope of a difference-making playoff run, and then backing it up with a loss to the Redskins who are playing out the string in one of their silliest seasons in years (the Skins have a chance to go 0-6 inside the NFC East with a loss on Sunday - something they have not done since the 1994 season of great comedy when Norv, Heath Shuler, and friends finished 3-13).

One nice aspect about playing a bad team like the Redskins is that because it is the Redskins, you are less likely to assume they are going to roll over and play dead for you. Of course, the opposite is also true for the opponent, which suggests that there is no way the Redskins can back up their "give-up" routine with the Giants on Monday night with a similar performance on Sunday against the most hated rival, the Cowboys.

On the other hand, you have a lame-duck coach, a potential lame-duck QB, and who knows how many other members on this team are packing their bags. For crying out loud, they have assistant coaches interviewing for the head coaching job, while serving a head coach who hasn't been fired yet! You cannot write stuff this good.

The Redskins have hired a new GM in Bruce Allen. Human nature would suggest that players would play with all of their might to impress their new boss. Of course, this is a silly assumption based on the idea that NFL players know that every single play or practice rep is filmed and scrutinized for all to see their entire careers. Having Allen in the press box won't impress these guys. They either have pride or they don't - and that effort on Monday night speaks volumes.

With 2 weeks to play, the Cowboys can still win the division with 2 wins, and they can still miss the playoffs quite easily, too. This is no time to screw around with the Redskins - although we should understand that since they came to Arlington a month ago, the Redskins took the Eagles to the 59th minute, had the Saints beat but let them off the hook (thanks, Shaun Suisham!), buried the Raiders in Oakland, and then Monday Night.

Week	Dallas	New York	Philly	GB
-	9-5	8-6	10-4	9-5
16	@ WAS	CAR	DEN	SEA
17	PHI	@ MIN	@ DAL	@ ARZ

Table Tutorial

ON OFFENSE:Last week, I am proud to say our timing was pretty strong in noticing the virtual disappearance of the deep ball on the offense. As we mentioned during Football 301 this week, I believe Jason Garrett may have worked his finest performance in 24 months.

This week, let's spend a moment on this unreal job the "Romo Friendly" offense has done when it comes to taking care of the pigskin. Here are some numbers for you.

(1) - The number of Multiple Interception Games from Tony Romo this season. That game was in Week 2 in the Cowboys Stadium opener. 1. Amazing job. Last year, Cowboys QBs had 5 multi-pick performances, including 3 by Romo.

(12) - The number of Giveaways the Offense had in December of 2008. 12 turnovers in 4 games (including one game where they had 0 - so 12 in 3 games!) is the recipe for utter disaster. In 3 December games this year, the Cowboys have 1 giveaway - the Marion Barber fumble before Halftime in New York.

(3) - The number of teams in the entire NFL with fewer Giveaways than the Cowboys offense's 17. Green Bay, San Diego, and Minnesota. There is your entire list. Well done.

(8) - The number of games this season where the Cowboys won the Turnover battle. In the entirety of 2008, they won only 5 games in that department.

With that in mind, let's visit a gameplan:

OFFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) - Continue to listen to your Identity - The Cowboys have been doing this for 14 weeks and surely, by now, they have proven to Norm and anyone else who did not believe it that they are a top-notch power football team that plays its best football with Romo under center and the threat of a run. This threat may or may not be real, but it is present. From there, they can do so many things and spread the ball in so many directions. There are times (Green Bay, December 2008) where they forget this identity and attempt to switch to the Saints/Patriots offense. But, this is who they are. This is what they do.

2) - Protect Tony Romo, Protect the Football - Tony Romo has been sacked 31 times this season. This is not anywhere near the best mark in the league (Peyton Manning, 10), nor is it anywhere near the worst mark in the league (Aaron Rodgers, 49). It is pretty much right smack in the middle. But, the good news is the Cowboys and Romo are in a 4-way tie for the fewest interceptions thrown by any team in the NFL with Green Bay, Minnesota, and Jacksonville. Usually, these two numbers are connected, but it is still the job of the QB to keep sacks from resulting in interceptions. Aaron Rodgers has done the best job this season at avoiding this, but Romo has been phenomenal.

3) - Prove You Can Cash In - Of course, this means score Touchdowns when you get the chance, rather than settling for Field Goals - something they did pretty well against the Saints until they settled for 3 late in the game and ended up with 0. But, this does provide us a chance to discuss the addition of Shaun Suisham to the squad and the exit of Nick Folk that made all of this possible. Through 12 weeks, Suisham was 12-12 in Field Goal attempts. He missed only 3 kicks his entire year (18-21), with 2 against the Cowboys in Arlington that likely cost them that game, and then an extreme chip shot (23 yards) against the Saints, which surely cost them that game, too. He, replaces Folk who missed a 24-yarder, also against the Saints, and kicks against his old team - the Redskins. One of my colleagues suggested that Suisham may have quite an advantage since he knows how to kick in Fed Ex Field, but I think my colleague is nuts, since Suisham got fired since he obviously did not know how to kick in Fed Ex Field.

4) - Roy Williams, Please Stand Up - In Week 11, the Cowboys got an ugly win. So, ugly, in fact, that Laron Landry was comfortable assessing Roy Williams after the game: "Scared," Landry said flatly. "Yeah. I know he was. Y'all can quote it, too. Y'all can tell him right now, tell him I'm sayin' it. I can say it right now: yeah, he was scared, I think. I told him he was scared." I know we often times ignore quotes from guys who are always running their mouths, but since Roy Williams had his ribs pounded in Denver, hasn't he looked scared in quite a few scenarios? I cannot swear he dropped that crucial 3rd Down in New Orleans because he was bracing for a hit, but I also cannot rule it out. Fact is, he needs to fight for his honor. If he doesn't show up big down this stretch, I would give serious consideration to saying goodbye in the offseason. He is no better than Patrick Crayton right now, and he is miles behind Miles.


ON DEFENSE: In the Cowboys 9 wins this season, they have 25 sacks (2.77 per game). In the 5 losses, they have a grand total of 9 (1.8). Sometimes it is tough to tie results to particular stats, as footballis far too complicated...But, against the Giants, the Cowboys got no pass pressure (1 sack which was late, late in the game) and the Cowboys lost. Against the Chargers, the Cowboys got no pressure and lost. And against the Saints, the Cowboys got to Drew Brees 4 times, and won. Not saying it is everything, but there seems to be some level of connection between the Cowboys getting results and their pass rushers getting to the opposition.

Against Washington in November, the Cowboys could not get to Jason Campbell. They also couldn't stop him on 3rd Down. In games where the Cowboys cannot get off the field on the money down, they struggle, but I suppose that is like saying when you fall in the water, you get wet.

DEFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) - The Anthony Spencer Show - The good folks at ProFootballFocus.com, tell us that of the 71 QB Hits from the Cowboys defense, 25 have been from Spencer. QB Hits are basically "almost sacks". The rest of the Top 5: Ware 14, Brooking 7, Ratliff 5, Bowen 5. So, as you can see, 25 is strong. I am about ready to declare that Anthony Spencer is working his way off the "Bust Watch List". This guy can play. After 0 sacks in 10 games, he has 3.5 in his last 4. But, more importantly, he passes the eyeball test. He is always around plays. He just needs to make a few more of them.

2) - Don't let that Running Game Breathe - Have you ever heard of Quinton Ganther? Apparently, he went to Utah. Well, it appears it is up to him and Rock Cartwright to screw up the Cowboys drive to an NFC East division title. If they get that done, the Cowboys really are a team in need of a heart transplant. Ladell Betts and Clinton Portis are one thing (or Terry Allen or John Riggins), but Quinton Ganther? Flood the box, and make them pass quickly.

3) - Takeaway, Takeaway! - What is this? 5 Takeaways in the last 2 road games? DeMarcus Ware stripping the ball from Drew Brees when he goes in for the sack? Mike Jenkins grabbing another interception? Football gets so much easier when you get pressure and takeaways. If they continue to average 2.5 takeaways per road game, this team can go on a Super Bowl run. I am dead serious.

4) - Prove that you are Real - Here is the question we all want to know the answer to. Are the Cowboys really capable of playing that way defensively on a semi-regular basis? Can you trust the Cowboys defense to actually play to their paper? To get a stop when you truly need one? To win a game on its own merits? Numbers are nice, but like we always say here, football is about money downs and particular scenarios. When the chips are in the middle of the table, are they the defense that allowed the Chargers to do whatever it wanted 2 weeks ago, or the defense that did not allow the Saints anything 1 week ago? I don't think we will ever get a full conclusion on the quality of a "Wade Phillips Defense" until they win something. A division title would mean a home game in the playoffs. And that would likely lead to the first franchise playoff win in nearly 5000 days. That would be something.

SUMMARY: The Redskins are trying to prove they aren't quitting dogs. The Cowboys are trying to prove they can get on a roll in December. It is possible last Saturday turned the fortunes of this organization. But, it is all based on beating a bitter rival, in a cold weather (not too bad according to the forecast, but a chance for snow and temps around freezing), prime-time affair.

I think the Cowboys should anticipate a strong push from Washington, but a game that should be there for the taking after halftime. For some reason, a Shaun Suisham kick would seem extra poetic, but I don't figure the Skins can hang in there for that long.

Cowboys 31, Redskins 17

Past Issues:

New Orleans Saints Game Plan

San Diego Chargers Game Plan

New York Giants Game Plan

Oakland Raiders Game Plan

Washington Redskins Game Plan

Green Bay Packers Game Plan

Eagles Game Plan

Seattle Seahawks Game Plan

Atlanta Falcons Game Plan

Kansas City Game Plan

Denver Game Plan

Carolina Game Plan

Giants Game Plan

Tampa Bay Game Plan

Updating The Turnovers

This is a chart that I keep on the side for my personal reference that I thought some of you might enjoy as reference tool for yourself:

	Cowboys Turnovers			Opponents Turnovers
Game	Fumbles (Lost)	INTS	Giveaways	Fumbles (Lost)	INTS	Takeaways	+/-
W @ TB	0 (0)	0	0	1 (0)	0	0	E
L vs NYG	1 (1)	3	4	0 (0)	0	0	-4
W vs Car	0 (0)	0	0	1 (1)	2	3	+3
L @ Den	1 (1)	1	2	2 (1)	0	1	-1
W @ KC	2 (2)	0	2	0 (0)	0	0	-2
W vs Atl	1 (1)	0	1	2 (1)	2	3	+2
W vs Sea	2 (1)	0	1	2 (2)	0	2	+1
W @ Phi	0 (0)	1	1	0 (0)	2	2	+1
L @ GB	2 (2)	1	3	2 (0)	0	0	-3
W vs Was	1 (1)	1	2	0 (0)	1	1	-1
W vs Oak	0 (0)	0	0	1 (1)	0	1	+1
L @ NYG	1 (1)	0	1	2 (1)	1	2	+1
L vs SD	1 (0)	0	0	0 (0)	1	1	+1
W @ NO	0 (0)	0	0	2 (2)	1	3	+3
vs Phi
@ Was
Totals	12 (10)	7	17	15 (9)	10	19	+2

Table Tutorial

Stat Project Update

Turnover Battles for the Week

Winner	+/-	Loser
Bal	+5	Chi
TB	+4	Sea
Dal	+3	NO
ATL	+3	NYJ
NYG	+3	Was
Ten	+2	Mia
Phi	+2	SF
Car	+2	Min
Ind	E	Jac
NE	E	Buf
Arz	E	Det
Hou	E	STL
Pit	E	GB
SD	-1	Cin
Cle	-2	KC
Oak	-2	Den
Totals for Week	8-3-5
Totals for Season	141-44, 76%

Table Tutorial

Football 301: Decoding Garrett - Week 15

You know what is funny about pro football? A man's career can turn on 1 day if that day has enough profile and impact.

I wonder if Jason Garrett's finest night in 2009 will start the wheels turning back in his direction as it pertains to the "hot assistant names" around the league. Think about it, you know him as a guy who frustrates you on occasion. But, around the league, he is the guy who put the plan together to tame the Saints in front of their home fans. Well done.

Back on August 18th , I wrote about the "12" personnel plans in both Dallas and Green Bay - something that has come to pass as one of the big trends in the NFL. It is interesting to see how the Packers have used it enhance their passing game by helping Finley bust out into a major downfield threat, and the Cowboys have used it to enhance its running game and to find good balance in its attack.

Check out Saturday Night, as we see the beauty of "12" even without Bennett on the roster. John Phillips, a draft-day afterthought, fills in for Bennett the last 2 weeks, and the "12" group has 16 snaps for 184 yards. Nearly 12 yards per snap! That is what we call devastating.

The Under Center/Shotgun balance was also perfect (41/31), with S11 being used primarily as 2-min and 3rd Down, but then "12" and "22" got cooking and did its thing.

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
12	16	184	7-38	9-146
13	0	0	0-0	0-0
21	9	29	5-14	4-15
22	21	48	16-50	5-(-2)
31	1	2	1-2	0-0
WC22	1	4	1-4	0-0
S21	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	1	0	0-0	1-0
S11	20	152	5-39	15-113
S12	3	23	0-0	3-23
Totals	72	442	35-147	37-295

Table Tutorial

Definition of the Personnel Groups, click here .

Football 301: Targets and Sacks - Week 15

The Best Day of the Dallas Cowboys Year? Quite Possible. Let's check out the target distribution charts and play the sack blame game for the trip to New Orleans.

Target Distribution:

Targets - Week 15 at New Orleans

Name	Targets	Catches	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Austin	13	7	139	4/1/0
Witten	8	5	44	1/0/0
Phillips	3	3	40	2/0/0
Williams	3	1	14	1/0/0
Ogletree	2	2	23	1/0/0
Jones	2	1	10	1/0/0
Crayton	1	1	25	1/0/0
Barber	1	1	11	1/0/0
Hurd	1	1	6	0/0/0
Totals	34	22	312	12/1/0

Table Tutorial

If you have been a starter for 10 games, and 5 of them were for over 100 yards, 10 different games this season you have scored touchdowns, and you broke 1100 yards with 2 weeks to play, you might be a star WR on this team. Miles Austin has broken out like you would expect a #1 pick who has a $45 million dollar contract to do. Sorry, Roy Williams, but 1 100 yard game and less than 600 yards doesn't quite impress us that much.

Season Target Distribution To Date:

Name	Targets	Catches	%	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Witten	110	81	74%	837	39/1/3
Austin	106	65	61%	1138	32/11/2
Williams	81	37	46%	592	21/6/0
Crayton	58	33	57%	507	16/4/1
Barber	27	21	77%	178	7/0/0
Bennett	27	15	55%	159	8/0/0
Choice	22	15	68%	132	7/0/0
Jones	15	12	80%	82	4/0/0
Hurd	11	7	64%	132	3/1/1
Phillips	7	4	57%	48	2/0/0
Ogletree	6	6	100%	81	4/0/0
Anderson	3	1	33%	5	0/0/
Totals	473	298	63%	3886	150/23/7

Table Tutorial

It seemed almost impossible early in the season, but by the end of the season, it is likely that Miles Austin will have more targets than Jason Witten. What a year. And, at what point do we start to look at the Ogletree catch percentage (100%) and begin to read meaning into it? And I believe that pass to Hurd in the 4th Quarter was the first ball thrown at him since the Seattle game in Week 8! After the first 4 weeks, you could make the case he was a bigger part of the offense than Austin, but that obviously has changed.

The Morning After: Cowboys 24, Saints 17

Raise your hand if you understand pro football. I am obsessed with this sport. There is nothing I spend more time thinking about and reading about and studying than the NFL. But, I sure don't understand it. Except, I do understand one important element about my lack of understanding: You can never account for the unaccountable. Said another way: Last night is why it is not smart to gamble on "sure things".

The Cowboys pulled the unthinkable last night in New Orleans with their performance that surely was one of the best games of football any of them had ever played. Once in a while, with all of the chips down, they find what they were looking for, and it so happened to be with the entire football world watching (provided they had the NFL Network) on this Saturday night in December (of all months).

On one hand, you have to be very pleased for these guys who spend a lot of time answering why they are not up to the challenge of winning important games such as these. On the other hand, you wonder how this is going to feel if they lose to Washington next week. But, that can wait for 8 days. This was a thing of beauty.

The offense made all the sense in the world. And it made all the sense in the world because the offensive line held up its end of the bargin, because Jason Garrett seemed to pull the puppet strings with great precision, and because your QB was the perfect maestro of the proceedings.

Tony Romo has not been the focal point of too many of these "Morning After" columns for a few reasons, but I think this may be the perfect day to spend a moment or two on the leader of this offense. Nobody is more scrutinized nationally than Tony Romo - whether it is appropriate or not never seems to matter. He had painted a large target on his chest long ago, and has been declared dead quite a few times by the experts.

All along, he has just chipped away at the mountain before him, and I dare say his QB work this season may be his finest year yet. Nobody is willing to admit that he isn't the problem, it seems, but to play the Giants-Chargers-Saints trio in succession in December, and emerge on the other side without one single giveaway (fumble or interception), 6 TD's, and a QB Rating of 109.7 is remarkable. They have lost 2 of those 3 games, so there is still that thread of blame that can be taken back to the QB because that is how we discuss this game. But, in December, Romo has been nearly flawless with absurd pressure and scrutiny aimed at his head. Put it another way: By George, I think he's got it.

And here is the good news: It is still a secret. Romo, it would seem, can still sneak up on the league because some have spent so long claiming he is the problem that they will not concede that point until he has a trophy in his hand. And we all know that is a long trip from here. But, in a 2009 where he had to prove he wasn't the problem, I think most fair observers would realize that the Cowboys have a useful Quarterback - maybe not a perfect one, but one who is very good.

Beyond Romo, there are so many others with their fingerprints on this unlikely win. As Junior Miller said last night, this may be Wade's signature defensive win. I argued that the Green Bay win in 2007 qualifies as well, but in fairness to Craig, that Green Bay team was not the juggarnaut the Saints are, and were not held to 3 points through 3 Quarters on their home field. The defense played very well, holding the Saints to just 1 3rd Down conversion - which occured in the final minute of the game. The Saints set the industry standard on 3rd Down conversions, but on this one night, they could not move the chains on the money down.

And then there is everyone's quiet hero, DeMarcus Ware. There are a number of reasons to look at his performance last night and marvel. One, of course, is that we feared for his physical well-being on Sunday evening at Cowboys Stadium when they are unscrewing his facemask from his helmet and strapping him onto a stretcher. Late in the day yesterday, there were still many reports circulating that he would not be able to play at all. Then, for him to play as well as he did - with a sack and fumble to end the final Saints' drive of the 1st half, and then another sack and fumble to end the final Saints' drive of the game - was the stuff of legends. The Cowboys could have very well crumbled under the pressure in that 4th Quarter - but #94 would not be denied. Joined by #93, Anthony Spencer, the Cowboys pass rush finally made sense for a night. It was like Ware and Ellis used to be. A speed LB who can not be blocked for long on each flank. Was it just a 1-night mirage?

The Cowboys' best players were their best players. They stepped up an emerged with a team victory that could certainly take this team to a new level. But, because of how this league and this team works, we are all wondering if we should read too much meaning into this game. Did the QB break through? Did the coach? Did the team? It all depends on where they go next.

But, for one night, they played like they could win a Super Bowl. I just don't understand the NFL sometimes.

Other observations from the night that ended the New Orleans quest for perfection:

* I suppose I should not allow this Nick Folk elephant in the room go on any longer before we address it. Look, I am all for trying to let a guy break out of his slump before we knee jerk and go to "Kickers-R-Us" for another one, but it is time. There is too much riding on everything this team does to allow one guy to get his head screwed back on. He is a kicker. He must make kicks. To miss that 24-yard Field Goal in that situation is an absolute fireable offense. He nearly cost you the football game - which in turn would have cost many men their jobs. I am sure he is a nice guy, and I hope his career can continue somewhere else, but like a group of athletes in our lifetime, it appears his head is not allowing his foot to do its job. That footage the NFL Network presented showing his pregame warm-ups was quite revealing. And then, on cue, he missed what amounts to an extra point. The Cowboys must get a kicker before Washington. And they are darn lucky that their refusal to address this issue sooner did not cost them another game.

* Mr Austin, your contract is ready. What a stud. 1100 Yards and counting. Was Terrell better than this? And, evidently, the Cowboys' offense also took note as we did Friday that the deep ball is but a faded memory. Brilliant double move off play action on the first drive of the game resulted in a 49-yard bomb to signal the attack. A thing of beauty.

* Does anyone know why the Cowboys would call timeout after Patrick Crayton's big 25-yard catch at the end of the 1st Quarter? I was thoroughly confused as the Saints were given time to review every replay possible during that timeout and decide if they should use a review on that 3rd and 8. Luckily, it held up, but I found that most curious. Let's not act like last night was not without brain freezes, as that decision, the 12-men in the huddle, the play where Barber forgot he was supposed to get the ball, the Flozell facemask, and a few others that we would all be pointing to if the Cowboys did not close the deal. But, they did, so they are but details in a notebook.

* Speaking of the review impacting the game, I was interested in what effect the review of the Spencer hit on Brees with :18 to go in the game had on the next play. If you recall, the Cowboys were rushing Brees on that final drive for 11 consecutive plays. Since they were in the no-huddle, you could make the case that the longer the drive goes on, the more depleted the energy becomes for the pass rushers. But, when they were reviewing the question of whether Brees' arm was going forward, DeMarcus and friends are catching their breath on the sideline. On the very next play, Ware beats Jermon Bushrod round the corner again and seals the game. It might have all happened the exact same way without the break, but my theory is that it helped Ware.

* I would never question the offensive genius of Sean Payton, but David Thomas gets 10 targets? He wasn't bad, but I think I have to adjust my gameplan when I find out my starter (Jeremy Shockey) can't play. The goal was obviously to isolate the Cowboys LBs in space (Carpenter, Brooking, James) and he was willing to work his back-up TE all night to do so. If I am the Cowboys, I am comfortable with Thomas trying to beat me.

* Every week, Garrett rolls out a new wrinkle. I really enjoy trying to predict what it might be, but this week, it was the mutiple looks with Kevin Ogletree. His 2catches were helpful, but I really think they were trying to spring him for a deep TD early in the 3rd Quarter and Romo just didn't have enough time to hit him so he checked down to Austin (who dropped the pass). Even Sam Hurd made a rare appearance late.

* We had to like the way the ball was run in New Orleans, too. They really set the tone and were physical throughout. Marion ran over Darren Sharper in short yardage, showing us that he is not the guy we saw at the goal-line against the Chargers. Felix showed bursts as well in certain situations and always looks like he is about to break one. I thought Bigg Davis played one of his better games of the recent stretch.

* Flozell looks very old. I think Left Tackle better be looked at very closely this offseason. And no, I don't think Leonard Davis is the answer, nor Doug Free.

* If there has been one guy who has certainly showed his quality as this season has gone along, it would be Mike Jenkins. But, if there have been 2 guys, we should add Anthony Spencer. I needed him to bust out, and while it might have taken him until nearly Thanksgiving, I now see his ability each week. He is not just "some guy" opposite DeMarcus. He looks to be very imposing, and difficult to deal with. That sequence where he had a sack disallowed by a Scandrick penalty, only to get one on the very next play was lovely. Of course, sacks are easier to get when you are not blocked.

* 2 potential plays of the game happened on 3rd downs in the 4th Quarter for the offense: #1, 3/4 at the 46, Romo puts one right on Roy Williams in stride which would keep the drive alive - but he drops it. #2, 3/7 at the 23, Romo again finds Austin in the face of a blitz and Austin sprints for 32 more and seemed to seal the game (thanks, Folk). But, overall, the telling stat for the Cowboys offense seems to be 3rd Downs. In Philly and in New Orleans, Romo and the offense made those plays. Against the Giants and Chargers, not so much. Must make the plays in the money scenarios.

* Today,my friend, Doug, notes, the Cowboys world must cheer for the Steelers, 49ers, and Redskins? Strange bedfellows for sure.

So, tell me, was this the aberration? Or is this the start of a 3 game winning streak heading into the playoffs with a division crown on their head and a home playoff game on tap? I wish I had an idea one way or the other. The good news is this thing is still now very much alive. The bad news is that the 2008 Cowboys won their 14th game against a top NFC foe, only to hit the wall in a ball of flames in games #15 and #16.

Is 2009 different? Only the final 2 weeks will tell us.

Game Plan Friday: New Orleans Saints

I certainly attempt to avoid hyperbole when it comes to my Cowboys writing, but evidently I engaged in some last week. Here was a paragraph from my overview of the San Diego game, #13 of the 2009 season:

If you want to go to the Playoffs. If you want to quiet the critics. If you have any plans of winning your division. If you don't want another season to crater. If you want your new stadium to appear difficult to play in. If you want opponents to take you serious....

Need to Win.

The truth is, I was only partly correct. They lost, of course, and despite that fact and the fact that they could very likely lose again in a day's time, they are still in this race. I was partly correct because any chance they had at a division title reduced dramatically, and now the most likely berth in the playoffs appears to be the #6 seed out of 6. But, I was incorrect if you consider the object of the game to play in the playoffs this year and ultimately do away with that playoff drought.

You see, my trusty partner on the air, Mr. Dan McDowell, bristles at my suggestion that this game is a "must win" game like I did against San Diego. If it is a must-win game, then how are the Cowboys still in this with 3 to play? Doesn't "must" suggest that losing is not an option? And, as Duane Thomas once said about the Super Bowl, "If it's the ultimate game, how come they're playing it again next year?"

So, where does that leave us?

Week	Dallas	New York	Philly	GB
-	8-5	7-6	9-4	9-4
15	@ NO	@ WAS	SF	@ PIT
16	@ WAS	CAR	DEN	SEA
17	PHI	@ MIN	@ DAL	@ ARZ

Table Tutorial

It leaves us with the Cowboys controlling their own playoff destiny for the time being. If they win their games, they are in. But, if they go 2-1 for the final 3, or, gulp, 1-2, they will need help. Remember, they lose a tie-breaker to the Giants (season sweep) and the Packers (head-to-head), so being even doesn't help them.

The opponent is a juggarnaut of epic proportions. The Saints have scored an insane 466 points in their 13 games (35.8 per game). To put this in perspective, the next several teams in scoring are Minnesota (389), Philadelphia (372), San Diego (362), and Indianapolis (359). That is right, the Saints have scored 77 more points or, 11 more touchdowns, than any team in football. And, their points for/point against differential is a crazy +192. Total domination.

National Football Post told us in August that the Saints do not have exceptional talent around the field:

New Orleans —

BLUE CHIP: QB, Brees; ILB, Vilma.

ALMOST BLUE: WR, Colston; WR, Moore.

These 2 teams have played a combined 26 games this year and have been favored in 25 of them. The Saints have never been an underdog in their 13 games, and the Cowboys have been favored by Vegas in 12 of their games (3 point dogs at Philadelphia). But, this week, the Cowboys will be heavy dogs for the first time in a real long time. In fact, I cannot recall this city seeming to accept defeat prior to the game in years. But, playing this team in this stadium is an extremely tall order.

ON OFFENSE: 895 yards of Total offense in 2 games and you lose them both? I would love to see a statistic on how many teams have done that this season. You would love to have more to show for your 900 yards, but we all know how the goal-line stand could possibly go down as the defining moment of the 2009 season.

As I look at the Cowboys offense, I continue to see some very impressive numbers that indicate this is, in fact, a good offense. It can be so much better, but overall, the tools are there to build something impressive. Trouble is, time is running out, and the Cowboys are starting to look like a team that has nice parts, but the sum total is less than what we had hoped.

I was trying to figure out what I don't like about this offense the other day, and I formed a premise then wondered if it held water. I don't think the Cowboys ever throw the ball down field anymore. For reasons I am not sure I grasp, I don't think Tony Romo throws the ball over the top like he did in the days of Terrell Owens and the 2007 Dallas Cowboys. Sure, Romo has plenty of 40+ yard passes, but is it from short plays that become long after the catch? Who do you think has more yards after the catch between Drew Brees and Romo? That would be Tony Romo.

But, "yards at the catch" measures passes length - and Romo rates #11 in the league, Brees is at #1. Brees throws the ball down the field. Romo doesn't seem to. So, I asked the boys at Football Outsiders this question: Does Romo throw the ball down the field like he once did?

The answer?

Romo's percentage of deep passes has dropped this season but not by much.

2007: 20% 16+ yards, including 8% 26+ yards in the air
2008: 19% 16+ yards, including 7% 26+ yards in the air
2009: 16% 16+ yards, including 5% 26+ yards in the air

That's it? From the high-flying days of 2007 until now, His deep passes are down only 3% and his medium throws are down 4%? Theories are so much better when you don't have to prove it. But, I sure can't remember the Romo deep ball much in the last 2 months, can you?

OFFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) - Sustain Your Drives, Hold Serve - Playing the Saints is very much like a tennis match. You are going to have a chance if you can get to the final-set tiebreaker. The trouble is, to get there, you must be able to keep up with the Saints. Sadly, this was impossible for Tom Brady and his band of weapons a few weeks back. It causes coaches to panic and go for it on 4th Down because they know that if they settle for 3, the Saints will get a working margin. If that happens, they unleash the blitz, and the score gets worse. You must sustain drives and roll clock with a power running posture. We know they can do it, but will they? Will they keep their heads? And, unlike last road game, will they have an offensive line that allows you do so?

2) - Composed Romo vs. The Superdome - Beware the blitz of the Saints, and beware the urge in the back of your head to try to keep up with Brees and his offense. Play within yourself and you have a chance. But, also be opportunistic. If you are unsure about one element of Romo's efficient 2009, it would be this: Is he pushing the ball down the field enough, or is he being too careful with the ball? I hate to say it, because being too careful is better than not careful enough, but to be elite, your QB has to be willing to occasionally fit the ball in tight spaces. Also, let's not forget how loud and intimidating the Superdome can be. A truly college atmosphere in the pros, and you must stay composed and not get flustered when things go in the wrong direction. This is a great test for Romo.

3) - Protect the QB, Win the Line of Scrimmage - I know I harp about this on a weekly basis, but this team needs better, consistent efforts from the OL in December. They lose this time of year for many reasons, but if you asked me to boil it down to the main culprit, I would circle a OL that dissolves a bit as the year goes on. For the most part, they were reasonable against the Chargers, but on the goal-line stand, the game was lost because the OL did not give Marion Barber much to work with. It is imperative that this offensive line gets after the Saints DL and protects the flanks against the solid Saints edge pass rush, and when it is time to get a yard, they need to move the pile.

4) - Touchdowns, Not Field Goals - This fits right with the theme of not having a dependable kicker, right? They may need Nick Folk to make a kick, but I suspect if they call on him much, they won't have a great chance to win. The Cowboys have been in the Red Zone 39 times this season (which sounds impressive until you see New Orleans has been in there 63 times) and has scored 20 TDs. That means 19 times, they have settled. Settled for FGs or less. That won't cut it on Sunday. Must get 7 every time you drive down there and get a chance. Must convert into 7.


ON DEFENSE: I would love to dazzle you with all of the amazing stats about the New Orleans Saints. They are so far ahead of the curve on every offensive metric that it is nearly unfair. To me, it all comes back to your QB, and Brees is an amazing story from every angle. When he signed from San Diego, he was coming off a big shoulder injury, and the Saints were trying to bounce back from the crazy season of Katrina. Sean Payton took a job that nobody seemed to want, and Brees signed. Since then, they have gone on quite a tear of offensive genius that we can compare to the greatest offensive systems of all-time. We can debate whether you would rather have the 1998 Vikings, the 2001 Rams, or the 2007 Patroits offense rather than the Saints (why did none of those teams win the Super Bowl those years?), but we cannot dispute that the Saints put you in a very uncomfortable position when you play their offense - you must score 7 points everytime you get the ball, or you lose sight of them.

We saw the Patriots try some awfully exotic schemes a few Mondays ago, but Brees surgically dismantled them with his huge assortment of weapons. And, for the most part, it all comes out of Shotgun and most of it with the pass or runs from a pass formation. It is too 1-dimensional and too predictable, but it doesn't matter. They are that good at what they do.

So, if you are Wade Phillips, do you rush the QB with risky blitzes or drop into coverage? We know we cannot trust the Cowboys to get there with 4, so the only option is to flood the zones with defenders. Trouble there is that Brees is as accurate a passer as there is in football. No pass rush = no chance in my estimation. Your only chance is the unpredictable blitz packages. 1st and 10 corner blitzes are just crazy enough to have a chance. But, traditional situations are picked apart by Brees/Payton.

DEFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) - Pass Rush - Remember the Cowboys pass rush? Well, it has betrayed them down the stretch. 1 sack against the Redskins. 1 sack at New York. 1 sack against the Chargers. 3 1-sack performances in your last 4 games? That is quite disappointing, and now the prospect of not having DeMarcus Ware at full strength does not help matters. I don't dispute this idea that Anthony Spencer is having a nice year, but the fact that Marcus Spears has no sacks since Atlanta, Jay Ratliff hasn't had a sack since Philadelphia, Keith Brooking has 1 sack since Seattle, and Bradie James has 1 sack all year (at Denver). The usual suspects are not getting there, and you can certainly imagine the implications of giving Brees all day.

2) - Take the Ball Away - Since the Eagles game, the Cowboys have played the Packers, Redskins, Raiders, Giants, and Chargers. In those 5 games, the Boys have multiple takeaways in just 1 game (Giants). This is a game where takeaways could be the one and only way to get the Cowboys a win. Big plays are the great equalizer, and for the Cowboys to have a chance, they must turn the ball over. Trouble is this: In his last 4 games, Brees has thrown 13 Touchdowns and 1 interception. Ouch.

3) - Newman and Jenkins must bounce Back - Sorry, but that was not good enough against San Diego. We can discuss who was worse in the game, but the fact is that Phil Rivers offered no respect to the corners of the Dallas Cowboys. And they showed unworthy of big respect. The Chargers picked on whoever they wanted with big days for Vincent Jackson and friends, especially on 3rd down. 3rd down is not exactly a tough spot for the Saints, but Jenkins and Newman (and Scandrick) must stay on top of Colsten, Moore, Henderson, and Meachem.

4) - Tackling must be true - Understand this: The Saints are going to get done what they normally get done. There will be big plays and huge yardage totals. I am not sure there is a recipe for an alternative. But, there will be moments where the game can change on a tackle or a miss. If the Cowboys blow tackles in the open field, the Saints take those for 50 yard Touchdowns. New Orleans has been the master of 3rd Down in this latest stretch, and if you can't tackle, you can't get off the field. And, if you can't do that, you can't win. Must wrap up and bring down.

SUMMARY: If there was one game on the schedule when it was released in April that I didn't consider a win as much of a possibility, it is this game. I didn't know the Saints would be 13-0, but I knew they would be very good, and would present a number of match-up issues with the Cowboys secondary. No pass rush, no secondary confidence, and what appears right now to be a Cowboys team that is so terrified of a collapse that they can not do anything but collapse. This team needs a confidence transplant, and for the life of me, I don't see how they get a win here. If they do get the unlikely win, it could change the direction of this franchise on a dime, but after these last 2 weeks, I would be a fool to trust them again. Not going to happen.

Saints 37, Cowboys 27

Past Issues:

San Diego Chargers Game Plan

New York Giants Game Plan

Oakland Raiders Game Plan

Washington Redskins Game Plan

Green Bay Packers Game Plan

Eagles Game Plan

Seattle Seahawks Game Plan

Atlanta Falcons Game Plan

Kansas City Game Plan

Denver Game Plan

Carolina Game Plan

Giants Game Plan

Tampa Bay Game Plan

Merry Christmas From Me

At one point, over at Inside Corner (RIP), I spent Thursdays "Analyzing the Enemy" and that has been somewhat tabled for now. I could give you a long list of explanations, but the truth is that I have to prioritize a bit better this time of year, and when I have to choose 2 of the following 3 (Mavs Game, Stars Game, Cowboys Blog) on a Wednesday night, I still have to pick the two that most affect the radio show and the paying gigs in my life. So, since this is a charitable venture, the Cowboys Blog suffers.

With Christmas coming (last radio show today) and travels that go with it, I will assure you that Monday (The Morning After), Tuesday (Football 301), and Friday (Game Plan), will always appear even when I am not in town. Otherwise, though, the next week or two will not have too much on Wednesday or Thursday (aside from the statistical projects).

So, my upcoming holiday schedule on this blog:

Fri, 12/18: Saints Game Plan
Sun, 12/20: The Morning After Saints v Cowboys
Mon, 12/21: Football 301
Fri, 12/25: Redskins Game Plan
Mon, 12/28: The Morning After Redskins v Cowboys
Tue, 12/29: Football 301
Fri, 1/1: Eagles Game Plan
Mon, 1/4: The Morning After Eagles v Cowboys
Tue, 1/5: Football 301

Oh, What a Day

Drive Of The Week, Part II

On the previous post, I forgot to mention that the final pass detailed did not end the drive. Cincinnati screwed around with some runs from shotgun at the one-yard line using the more mobile Zach Collaros at quarterback before punching it in on the third try. It seemed like one of those things I'd rather gloss over than spend 20 minutes on three failed running plays from the one.

Drive Of The Week, featuring TC

For these posts, I try to cover football things that I think my audience will have interest. I have an increasing suspicion that I am the only person who reads these posts (and let’s be honest: I’m just skimming to check for mistakes), so this week, we’ll focus on the Cincinnati Bearcats’ final two drives that brought them the win against Pittsburgh. Because I love Notre Dame and want to be familiar with what former Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly likes to do. That said, it’s not like there’s nothing here for you. Cincinnati is a traditional non-factor who has been achieving big success the last few years, especially at the quarterback position. Figuring out how that happens is always interesting to me. So hey, you might like this. I guess.

Stat Project Update

Turnover Battles for the Week

Winner	+/-	Loser
SF	+5	Arz
Ten	+4	STL
Mia	+3	Jac
Phi	+3	NYG
NYJ	+2	TB
NO	+1	ATL
Buf	+1	KC
Bal	+1	Det
GB	E	Chi
Min	E	Cin
Was	E	Oak
Hou	-1	Sea
SD	-1	Dal
Ind	-2	Den
NE	-3	Car
Totals for Week	8-4-3
Totals for Season	133-41, 76%

Table Tutorial

Week 13 Picks

Every Friday during the 2:00 hour, BaD Radio will make their picks of the week. Whoever gets the fewest correct over the course of the season will wear a nice suit and tie during the entirety of the NFL playoffs. In addition, the loser among Bob, Dan and Donovan will wear the same attire during Super Bowl week in Miami. Picks will be in red.
STANDINGS
Bob	21-18
Dan	16-23
Donovan	15-24
Tom	21-18
Grubes	22-17
Sean	21-18
TCLOTW	6-7

Football 301: Targets and Sacks - Week 14

Targets and Sacks from a frustrating afternoon at the Death Star vs the Chargers

Target Distribution:

Targets - Week 14 vs San Diego Chargers

Name	Targets	Catches	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Austin	8	6	71	4/1/0
Williams	8	4	74	3/0/0
Witten	7	4	49	1/0/0
Crayton	3	2	31	1/1/0
Barber	2	2	22	2/0/0
Jones	1	1	2	0/0/0
Phillips	1	0	0	0/0/0
Totals	30	19	249	11/2/0

Table Tutorial

Reasonable balance, just not enough of it. Patrick Crayton has seen his targets really drop over the last few weeks, but he still is getting in the end zone. Kind of a forgotten man since the game in Green Bay ended. Here are his targets in 2009 by game: 6-7-4-7-8-2-5-4-6-2-1-2-3 - That is 49 targets in the first 9 games, and 8 targets in the last 4.

Season Target Distribution To Date:

Name	Targets	Catches	%	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Witten	102	76	75%	793	38/1/3
Austin	93	58	62%	999	28/9/2
Crayton	57	32	56%	482	15/4/1
Williams	78	36	46%	577	20/6/0
Choice	22	15	68%	132	7/0/0
Bennett	27	15	55%	159	8/0/0
Hurd	10	6	60%	125	3/1/1
Barber	26	20	77%	168	6/0/0
Jones	13	11	85%	72	3/0/0
Anderson	3	1	33%	5	0/0/
Ogletree	4	4	100%	58	3/0/0
Phillips	4	2	50%	8	0/0/
Totals	439	276	63%	3574	138/22/7

Table Tutorial

Football 301: Decoding Garrett - Week 14

There have been 3 games this season where the Cowboys gathered fewer yards than on Sunday when they had 360. At Denver, At Green Bay, and H vs Washington were both less productive, and in those games, the Cowboys scored 10, 7, and 7 points. So, as you can see, it would have been nice if the Cowboys had done more than their 2 drives of reasonable length on Sunday.

As a season evolves, the Cowboys are trying to narrow down their playbook to what they do well, and at the same time, continue to add things to keep from being too terribly predictable and to use their personnel in a way that squeezes full potential out of your abilities.

In football 301, I generally try to stick to breaking down the positive plays and attempt to not make this a negative rant about why Jason Garrett is not doing a great job. The fact is, he is a bright offensive mind, and gets plenty of things right, and I try to point that out each week while offering some observations on how they could get even better.

But, one other time, when we broke down the crucial goal line failure during Week 4 - Denver, we looked at what went wrong with the offense at the key moment of the game. I believe we will effort to do some of that today.

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
12	6	24	5-15	1-9
13	0	0	0-0	0-0
21	5	18	4-18	1-0
22	14	92	12-66	2-26
23	3	0	3-0	0-0
WC22	1	6	1-6	0-0
S21	3	-12	0-0	3-(-12)
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S11	17	159	1-5	16-154
S12	7	61	0-0	7-61
Totals	56	348	26-110	30-238

Table Tutorial

Definition of the Personnel Groups, click here .

The Morning After: Chargers 20, Cowboys 17

I am officially out of excuses. And optimism. And positive spins.

For those of you that look to me to offer you some "half-full" mentality, I might be letting you down this week. I just can't believe that they spit the bit again. I blame myself for thinking this season was different. I blame myself for trusting this organization to get it right at the moment of truth.

I mean, at some point, if you keep picking the coyote to catch the road runner and you are wrong repeatedly, do we blame the coyote or those picking him despite the ever mounting pile of evidence that says the road runner will always get away?

On Sunday at the new Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, the Chargers avoided any and all aspects of the "ambush theory" and did what good teams do in the month of December, waited out a reasonable performance from the inferior home team and then made all of the plays in the 4th Quarter to seal their 10th victory of the season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys followed their familiar December path, where the crucial moments of the game are all wrong, and despite doing a few things well, they leave with their 5th defeat and the sinking feeling that defeat #6 is merely 5 days away.

The Cowboys offense left at least 10 points on the field - and when you lose by 3, that is an enourmous number. The Cowboys defense surrendered scoring drives in the first half of 84 and 64 yards. Then in the 4th Quarter when it absolutely needed a stop, they allowed 2 stake-in-the-heart possessions of 75 yards and 73 yards. In "win" time, Dallas could not get a drive going, and the Chargers could; marching right down the field with 11:23 Time of Possession in the 4th Quarter alone.

The fact that really shows in a game like this is that you can see the fragile mentality of the Cowboys organization. I was asked last night if the Cowboys are "soft" and I think that is a difficult conclusion to draw when a team wins many physical battles over the course of a game and a season. But, do they possess the composure and the mental strength to weather a storm and emerge on the other side? Or, when adversity arrives on the door-step, do the Cowboys collectively collapse under the pressure? I think the evidence answers that question. They appear to be "mentally soft". You can wait them out. At some point, they will crack under the pressure. They will miss a Field Goal. They will let Vincent Jackson get behind them on 3rd and Long. They will give up a 15 play drive when they absolutely must get the ball back for the offense.

So, who do we blame? I suppose today will be one of those days on the radio where nobody will be free from the ridicule. And who should be safe? If the object of the game around here is to quiet the ghosts of past failures at the moment of truth, then these 2 losses in the last 2 weeks don't exactly accomplish that mission.

As difficult as it is to admit, the Cowboys franchise is merely following its same path that it has worn since its last Super Bowl victory in 1995. A path that often includes a hierarchy of relatively powerless men answering to an owner that promised us he would be involved in everything to "socks and jocks". He is keeping his word, and his results are there for all to see in the record books - nearly 5,000 days since the last playoff wins.

It would surely be easier to handle this team if they would not demonstrate their reasonable quality so often. They are not a bad team and they are not devoid of talent. They play hard and have many quality individuals. But in the end, they end up with what appears to be shockingly similar results. And, of course, what makes me angry is that I only get these moments of clarity after I realize how silly a win prediction on Friday truly was. Again, don't blame the coyote for being the coyote. Blame yourself for believing this episode he will actually catch the roadrunner.

Now, some random observations from the game that showed us 2009 will most likely not end differently:

* The best news to emerge last night from this loss was the report that DeMarcus Ware is out of the hospital and resting at his house. Ware, who was carted off the field with 11:28 to go in the 4th Quarter, appeared to suffer a severe neck injury during a pass rush sequence. At that point in the game, the score was 10-10, and the Chargers were going to face a Ware-less defense for a 3rd and 12, from the SD 47 yards line. Could the Cowboys hang in there without their best defender? Well, 2 plays, and 53 yards later, Antonio Gates is celebrating an easy Touchdown. My first thought is to acknowledge that losing Ware demonstrates his immense value to this team, and we should not be shocked that the results after he left were not positive. My second thought is that, once again, this shows the mental fragility of the team, that losing one guy can make the defense collapse like a house of cards when it needed someone to step up and make a play in Ware's absence. Ware appears to be suffering from a sprained neck, so his return in the next few weeks appears to be a real possibility.

* The Cowboys almost took the game over in the 2nd Quarter, with a phenomenal drive that was primarily that "power run" set domination. Felix Jones for 12, 12, 5. Barber for 8 and 5. Choice for 5 and 6. Jones for 7, Barber for 3 - down to the 1 yard line. The entire length of the field without a single pass completion. It was a thing of beauty- Physical strength and demoralizing results for the Chargers defense. And, then the game turned. 2nd and goal: nothing. 3rd and goal: nothing. 4th and goal: Less than nothing. When they had 3 cracks from the 1 with the season hanging in the balance, the Cowboys could not get the 36 inches necessary. What happened? Well, we could carefully analyze every block to see who got it done, and who didn't, but I will save some of that for Football 301. But, if I may offer a cheap 2nd guess, it would be three-fold about that 4th down call. First, if I have one run with my whole season on the line, do I run to the right behind the new guy, Doug Free? Or do I take it to the left, like I did on the goal-line in Philadelphia? Second, on the 1 yard line, when 11 defenders are on the line, can I afford to wait for the development of the pulling Kyle Kosier? Brandon Siler sure didn't wait. He shot the gap, beat Kosier to the point of attack, and blew up the play. And Third, don't I have Barber at Tailback, with Deon Anderson's thunder blocks in front of him, rather than trying to get cute and have Felix deep and Barber up front? Would the Chargers really believe that for the first time in his career, you would trust Felix Jones in a short yardage situation? Or, did the Chargers know, like we all did, that Jones was a decoy, and Barber was getting the rock again. Regardless, the game changed right then and there, and we will have all off-season to debate if any of those 3 issues have merit, or if we are all just second-guessing the result - that Barber was stopped at the 1-yard line; and the season might have been stopped, too.

* Nick Folk.

* I know that my vote is not the deciding vote in the Jerry Jones approval rating test, but I cannot tell you how nuts he makes me sometimes. From the role that his head coaches must take, to the assumption that he needs more Felix, to the idiocy of the bits in his new stadium, to the roof being closed when it is 68 degrees outside - the hits just keep coming. So, let me get this straight: It is arguably the biggest game of the year. One in which the crowd needs to make a difference and help will the Cowboys to victory. A game that is so crucial that many will lose their jobs over it if the result doesn't go the right direction. And with that all in mind, he thought it would be a great time to hand out 70,000+ 3D glasses to his fans, which effectively distracts his own audience from doing their job in the game? What is the point? What are we doing? Is the whole point of this new stadium to bring further glory to Jerry by proving we can herd well-meaning Cowboys fans onto a party platform 50-deep? Is it to show the silliness of the world's largest television - while ignoring the reality that it actually keeps your own fans from wanting to watch what is going on down on the field below? You cannot make this stupidity up! Why not issue XBoxs and cellphones to everyone attending so that they pay even less attention to the game? I can feel my blood pressure raise as I type this, so let me end this rant by admitting this stadium and I are never going to be on good terms, I don't believe.

* The Cowboys are 1-6 at home in December in their last 7 games. Amazing.

* The pass rush was ineffective again. I will readily admit that Philip Rivers was hit on several occasions as he delivered the ball, but the hits never seemed to affect the flight of the ball. He stood tall, took a hit, and moved the chains again. I was very impressed with his performance for much of the day.

* As for Romo, the numbers of efficiency were there all day. But much like the Cowboys, numbers are nice, but football comes down to scenarios and key moments in a game. During those scenarios and key moments, the offense has to cash in. And for whatever reason, they were 1-8 on 3rd down conversions. Not converting on 3rd down ends drives and turns TD opportunities into Field Goals (or missed Field Goals). A QB Rating of 111.7 was surely impressive, but unlike last week, you would have to admit he was the 2nd best QB on the field. Rivers had a lower QB rating (89.6) but converted several 3rd and long throws that kept his team rolling down the field, while going right after Terence Newman and Mike Jenkins. The corners for the Cowboys seem good enough usually, but clearly not anything that scares Rivers.

* I was asked by a few emailers to reprint my "end of another season" paragraph from last year's Baltimore game that I received so many compliments on. I hesitate to do so, because there are 3 games to go. The Cowboys can still save their skin (there I go, believing in the coyote, again). Regardless, your wish is my command:

As I was leaving a frigid Texas Stadium after the game, I was walking right behind a Dad and his boy. The boy must have been 7 or 8 years old and was crying about the result. Some people might roll their eyes, but I knew how the boy felt. When you are young, and you love a sports team, you believe the games and the seasons will all have the happy endings of the Disney movies that you watch. Guess what, son, if you are going to pledge allegiance to a team as it appears you have with the Dallas Cowboys, I want to welcome you to the fellowship of the die-hards. Understand, that once you do, you are not allowed out of this commitment, and you should also understand that most seasons are going to end in tears. A favorite team is the only thing a male human feels the same about when he is 5 and when he is 45 and when he is 75. You will change your mind on everything else. Girls, money, hobbies. But, you will always still feel the adrenaline rush of a win, and the gutting sadness of a horrible loss. I didn’t say anything to the boy, as his Dad was handling it (and he might not have welcomed my advice) but I felt for him. Welcome to sports, young man. Someday, you may live to see a championship or five, but most years will end with your guts spilling onto the floor. - December 21, 2008

Fellowship of the Die-hards or Fellowship of the Miserable? It is a fine line between the two.

3 games to go. Anyone believe in the coyote?