I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.
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Cedric Ogbuehi, T, Texas A&M - 6'5, 305 - RS Senior - No 40
Just as every draft season brings us stories of those who have emerged from anonymity to a potential fortune in just a few months, there must also be counter-weight stories in the opposite direction. In June of 2014, Sports Illustrated released their first mock draft and placed this tackle from Allen High School and College Station as their projected #1 pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. After all, Luke Joeckel, the Aggies left tackle in 2012 was the 2nd overall pick in '13 and Jake Matthews, the Aggies left tackle in 2013 was the 6th overall pick in '14. That put the weight on Ogbuehi to dazzle in his first year at left tackle - he played 2011 and 2012 as a guard and 2013 as a right tackle - under the bright lights of scrutiny. In fact, he had been given a 1st round grade a year ago, but elected to come back and play a year at LT to improve on that more.
Unfortunately, things went in the other direction. He played poorly at times, looked out of place, and was ultimately moved back to right tackle (with his coaches disingenuously insisting it had nothing to do with his performance). Then, his offensive line coach was dismissed, followed by the most damaging incident to his draft prospects - a blown ACL to his left knee in the Aggies' bowl game. During that process, he has dropped from that perch high above the draft all the way now to where some thing he will be available on Day 3 (Rounds 4-7). To see if we concur with those conclusions, we grabbed 3 games from 2014: South Carolina, Arkansas, and Mississippi State. He wears #70 at left tackle in the clips below: What I liked: Cedric has certainly impressed enough at other spots on the offensive line to know he can play and play well. He is a very athletic and agile tackle that is what the league is looking for these days - a guy with the feet and build to mirror an edge rusher when he tries to out-flank his man and then dip below to get to the QB. Cedric's feet are generally in the right place and his arms are amazingly long and another attribute that scouts salivate over. Long arms give you the opportunity to recover by reaching out and maintaining your leverage on a man trying to blow by your shoulder. It seems that run blocking comes pretty easy to him as a zone-trained tackle who knows how to head downfield on zones away from his post and go fill in linebackers and safeties with a running start. He is agile and able to pick up his moving targets. He has ability and tools for sure. What I did not like: Unfortunately, this list is a bit longer than I had hoped. First, he is a bit undersized, so the thing that jumps out quickly is that he appears to not have a significant strength edge over his opponents. This means that he is getting pushed back into the QB too often - Trey Flowers and Preston Smith both had moments where they were definitely able to get below his pads and send him back on roller skates. In his pass-pro drops, he can get back on his heels which also get him leaning. These are hopefully things that can get cleaned up with coaching and weight lifting, but you have to be concerned because he doesn't seem like an ideal guard candidate due to these strength concerns. I wish he did not appear to be a finesse linemen, but from the games I watched, he is not looking to punish, and frankly looks a bit unsure of himself. Now, this happens when a guy switches spots so many times, but I am just going on what my eyes are seeing and it looks like he is thinking through every step as he plays sometimes. I don't see a nasty demeanor, either, but that might be tied into his lack of confidence in his role. Check the clip below and tell me he looks sure of what his role is: Summary: This is going to be a very interesting draft day situation, because he clearly has tools and at some point will be too good a value to not take and try to turn into a 1st round caliber product again. But, I must tell you at this point - with the performance on tape, the injury, and the lack of being able to show his wares on the spring - he might be falling a ways. I like that arm length and those feet and there are tapes where he is fine for 50 snaps in a row, but when you are looking for a tackle, you can be picky for those who have warts and see if they are still there in the 3rd or 4th round. I don't think he is in the Top 50 anymore, but I have to believe that there will be someone with an interest in forgetting about the 2014 tape at left tackle and just fixing him for their franchise as a rookie 3rd "swing" tackle. If they can, then he may be a starter before you know it and return to his spot when this year began.You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.
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