Showing posts with label 2012 Cowboys. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 Cowboys. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 09, 2013
Cowboys by the Numbers: Defense
As we continue to examine 2012 as a primer for what needs to be accomplished heading into training camp of 2013 and beyond, we should follow up our breakdown of the offensive numbers with a thorough checkup of the statistics that the defense was responsible for.
Clearly, this is less relevant when you consider the wholesale adjustments to the defense moving forward. They spent the offseason changing the coaching staff and the scheme of the defense and asking much of their 3-4 personnel to now simply switch to the 4-3. Most NFL experts would argue that this is a very unwise endeavor as players are often identified as one or the other on draft day and yet now the Cowboys are asking their entire Front 7 on the defense - who were all drafted because they were tailor-made for the 3-4 scheme to not only learn but perform at a high level on the 4-3.
Much of this is also mitigated by the fact that the Cowboys did run a very multiple and versatile front with Rob Ryan in the last few years and that they have very talented players who should work in any scheme, but still, it is not a sure thing this will work when they have 6 of their projected 7 starters as hold overs from the old scheme. Only newcomer Justin Durant, the projected SAM linebacker in Monte Kiffin's scheme has every played a snap in a 4-3. That is a shocking reality of what the Cowboys are about to try to do.
On the other hand, what you are about to see are the statistics that the Cowboys defense has amassed in 2012 with their old scheme. Now remember, health had a ton to do with another disappointing effort from the defense - so much so that the firing of Rob Ryan doesn't really seem fair based on 2012 performance - but, make no mistake; we should not be too bothered with the Cowboys trying a new defensive strategy moving forward.
Trouble is, we know from experience that scheme doesn't make the team. Players do. Special ones. And, honestly, I have significant doubts that the Cowboys can be a special defense based on a scheme that requires a team to get pressure with only the front 4 (The Tampa 2 seldom blitzes) and is based on the cognitive skills of safeties to orchestrate the entire secondary. But, I will let the coaches sort through those issues in a long camp and see where it goes.
In the meantime, let's try our best to sort through those 2012 numbers. When we did the offense, we found 5 great stats, 5 good stats, and 5 poor stats to analyze. Unfortunately, finding 5 great stats from the 2012 defense will not be easy, so I am forced to relabel the categories.
Here we go:
5 Good to Great Stats from the Cowboys Defense in 2012
Opponents Quick Strike Drives: Rated 9th in NFL with 28 drives of 4 plays or less. NFL Average was 41 drives and Playoff Teams averaged 31 drives where points were scored in 4 plays or fewer.
3rd Down and Long 10 yards+ Conversions: 4th best in NFL with 15.9%. NFL Average = 20.6%, Playoff Average = 21%
Opponents rushing for 4+ yards: 42% was 7th in NFL. NFL Average = 43.5%, Playoff Average = 43.9%
Opponents rushes for 50 yards: Allowed 0 plays ranked 1st. NFL Average = 1, Playoff Average = 1
Opponents Drives Starting inside the 20: 5th in NFL, 56. NFL = 48, Playoffs = 48
As you can see, I am really scraping the bottom of our barrel to find 5 stats where the Cowboys rank in the Top 10 in the league. And let's be honest - none of them really seem to be a major category of excellence. Rather, they are subcomponents of larger categories. It is certainly good news that the Cowboys did not give up huge plays very often, but they did give up tons of other things - long drives and big time of possession ground and pounds.
You do have to like that they made teams work hard for rushing yards and did not allow 4 yards a lot relative to the league. Also, it should be pointed out that the 5th stat I found - opponents' drives starting deep in their own territory is actually a stat that is reflective of strong special teams work - not defensive excellence.
Overall, as you can see, there just wasn't much at all that this defense was really good at. So, we arrive back at the question of what is the argument for keeping the scheme and the coaching staff the same?
5 League Average Stats from the Cowboys Defense in 2012
Opponents Net Passing Yards Per Game: 230, 19th in NFL. NFL Average = 231, Playoff Teams Average = 230
Opponents Red Zone Scoring: 54.5 TD%, 18th in the NFL. NFL Average = 54.1, Playoff Teams = 53.1
Explosive Plays (Plays of 20 yards or more): 67, 22nd in NFL. NFL = 60, Playoffs = 60
Opponents First Downs: 317, 16th in the NFL. NFL Average = 318, Playoff Teams = 312
Opponents Time of Possession: 29:27 for 13th in NFL. NFL Average = 30:00, Playoff Teams 29:23
Here we see that the squad did some things in line with the pack in the NFL. They weren't killed with yardage through the air and did a reasonable enough job with the clock and limiting the first downs. However, 67 explosive plays is at the low end of average and there just wasn't enough meat here to help when it mattered most. They found themselves behind quite a bit early in games and that actually might lead to some misleading numbers through the air as well. As you will see below, when QB's wanted to move the ball against the Cowboys, they didn't struggle to do so.
5 Very Poor Stats from the Cowboys Defense in 2012
Opponents Negative Plays (in yards): Cowboys -295, 30th best in NFL. NFL Average = -370, Playoff Teams -385
Takeaways: 16, which ranked 28th. NFL Average = 25, Playoffs = 27
Opponents Passer Rating: 94.7, ranked 29th. NFL Average = 85.6, Playoff Teams Average = 81.8
10 Play Drives Allowed: 32, 28th. NFL Average = 27, Playoff teams = 28
Opponents Passer Rating vs Blitz: 106.1, 29th. NFL Average = 83.4, Playoff Teams = 77.8
Holy Cow.
Look at those opponent's passer rating numbers. So, first, just look at all passes. We have always talked about how 80 is the NFL average and 90+ is an elite QB. As you can see, the Cowboys defense made their entire schedule to be elite QBs.
Then, with the blitz, they actually got even worse. They somehow conceded a 106.1 QB rating when they brought pressure. They also did not turn the ball over (again) and had fewer tackles for loss and sacks than almost anyone in the league. This is particularly depressing given the monster investment in the cornerback position last offseason.
They just didn't make any plays on defense. They didn't take the ball away, nor did they make the opponent lose yardage and set up longer plays.
They just didn't do much defensively that you can sink your teeth into.
Moving forward, we look to better health, a new scheme, and better safety play (gulp) to improve upon things. But, looking at these numbers, you can see the reason some were scratching their heads when the Cowboys did nothing to address the defense of note in the early part of the draft or free agency. These numbers are the argument for Shariff Floyd or players like that could have added a playmaker to the front 4.
But, they elected to look elsewhere and we will see if they end up regretting that.
Friday, January 04, 2013
Splash Plays - Week 16 - At Washington - FINAL
Examining the final Cowboys defeat of the season is no fun, given that they were a rag-tag bunch hanging on for dear life with those spared the season-ending injury. Almost no contenders can say that they had a unit like the Cowboys defense that had the combination of so many players hurt and so many others in the line-up who were not even on the roster 2 months ago.
This, of course, is part bad luck - which we all like to point at - and part of their own doing. The part of your own doing would be the difference between the Cowboys in 2012 and other "good franchises".
Everyone gets injuries. That is true. But, as you look at the Cowboys opening day roster, they had 53 players just like everyone else. The issues, obviously, all along have been the assertion that the Cowboys do not have much quality depth.
That is speculation and chatter until it is tested. When Sean Lee gets hurt, is the fix on the roster? Barry Church? Bruce Carter? Kenyon Coleman? When they all get hurt, can you fill their spots with guys who made your team?
And that is where the Cowboys clearly still lack the quality to compete as the best teams. I have cited the roster depth of a team like San Francisco as an example of a perfect situation. They lose a WR late in the season to a bad injury, and in steps their 1st round pick. They lose a RB, and in steps their 2nd round pick. Their top 2 picks weren't even playing - they were waiting their turn.
Quality depth.
The opposite is what we had late in the season on the Cowboys depth chart. Guys on the field who were just signed, but now forced to play significant roles in a huge game. As Alfred Morris is running 32 yards for a touchdown, there is Brady Poppinga - nearly flat on his back - being blocked out of the way. Poppinga was just signed after 4th round pick Kyle Wilber could not play inside. Dan Conner was limited. Ernie Sims was not the answer. Alex Albright played some. Orie Lemon was hurt. Caleb McSurdy was gone in camp. They never were covered in case injury hit.
Same for safety; Matt Johnson was picked to solidify. Brodney Pool was signed to start. Danny McCray was not capable of playing safety it was proven. Mario Butler didn't work out. Mana Silva was a short term idea. Charlie Peprah was brought in. Eric Frampton was signed.
If you have a proper roster, you don't have to play 5 or 6 guys who didn't break camp in significant spots. They might be on your roster as deep reserves, but only the thin teams have to find street free agents and put them right on the field. And that is where the Cowboys see how far they must go in roster building.
It sounds like some years there is just no solution to injuries. And then you read that the Packers won the Super Bowl 2 seasons back with 16 players on injured reserve including many starters. But, it takes a strong roster that is not top-heavy. And that is something for the General Manager to consider moving forward.
Every roster spot matters. Every situation must have a fix ready. And that is why people point at spots on the roster that are not wisely used and accuse Jerry Jones of being wasteful and irresponsible with roster spots 41-53. Because in December, you are going to need those guys to play. But, in Dallas, many of them don't play, and you bring street free agents in and they immediately pass all of the reserves and go right to the field.
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When looking at Washington's big demolition of what was left of the Cowboys offense, we are reminded of something that was surely not Jones' fault - the very poor decision Josh Brent made about a month ago.
In breaking down the film, as Alfred Morris and Robert Griffin sliced and diced the Cowboys defense, I kept coming back to the feeling that if Brent was out there, this would not have been nearly as bad. Jay Raliff has been hurt and when Brent was filling in, interior runs were not happening nearly as much. He was having a fantastic year against the run.
But, with Ratliff and Brent unavailable, the Cowboys were getting by with Sean Lissemore and Tyrone Crawford playing over the center. This is a poor plan, but the best the Cowboys could hope for. And they battled, but were over-run by the constant combo-blocks from the Center-Guard in Washington. Against New Orleans and Pittsburgh, this was not as evident as neither launched much of a ground attack.
But, that bill became due on Sunday night. The interior getting blown off the ball forced the linebackers to crash down to protect the middle. And then when Ware and Spencer crashed down, there was no cover at the flanks and you saw the damage done by the outside runs. It was a total disaster, and I feel that Josh Brent could have changed plenty of that.
We can blame the Cowboys for lack of depth, but it is tough to criticize when they lose both the starter and his reserve during the year. 2 injuries at the same spot is too much to over-come generally.
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All season long, we have shown you Tony Romo throw charts. This week, I had Tim draw up a few for RG3. I thought it would be revealing to show how much the Redskins accomplished, despite how little he had to throw downfield. Blue is complete, Red is incomplete.
1st Half for RG 3:
2nd Half throws for RG3:
Amazing, but that performance actually won the game.
SPLASH PLAYS
Let's take a look at the "Splash Plays" from Week 16 at the Redskins:
Splash Plays are key impact plays from the defense. Usually, they are obvious, but there are some that blur the line. I have listed time and play of each one for those who want to double check my work.
For more, read a detailed explanation of this study here: What is a Splash Play?
WEEK 16 at Washington
Very little resistance on Sunday night, but here is what we saw. And typically, they were led by Anthony Spencer. DeMarcus Ware was just not fit enough to play, it appears. As he injured his arm against the Bengals and kept playing, but was not nearly the same player.
| Q-Time | D/D/Yd | Player | Play |
| 1-14:39 | 1/10/O15 | Lissemore | Run Stuff |
| 1-7:35 | 3/2/O19 | Spencer | 3rd Down Stop |
| 1-2:47 | 1/10/O36 | Peprah | Pass Defended |
| 3-8:25 | 1/10/O18 | Crawford | Run Stuff |
| 3-4:25 | 1/10/D20 | Albright | Tackle For Loss |
| 4-12:49 | 1/10/O40 | Spencer | Tackle For Loss |
| 4-7:35 | 2/7/O27 | Spencer | Tackle For Loss |
| 4-4:10 | 2/8/D37 | Sims | Pass Defended |
| 4-4:01 | 3/8/D37 | Spencer | Sack |
Here are the final season totals for 2012 and Plays Per Splash:
| Player | Splashes | Snaps | P.P.S. |
| Spencer | 38 | 872 | 22.9 |
| Ware | 30 | 896 | 29.8 |
| Hatcher | 16.5 | 784 | 47.5 |
| Claiborne | 16 | 909 | 56.8 |
| Carter | 15 | 625 | 41.6 |
| Carr | 13 | 1043 | 69.5 |
| Lee | 10 | 331 | 33.1 |
| Brent | 9.5 | 320 | 33.7 |
| Butler | 8 | 300 | 37.5 |
| Ratliff | 6 | 269 | 44.8 |
| McCray | 6 | 658 | 109.6 |
| Sensabaugh | 6 | 981 | 163.5 |
| Spears | 6 | 394 | 65.6 |
| Scandrick | 5 | 339 | 67.8 |
| Lissemore | 5 | 413 | 82.6 |
| Player | Splashes |
| Conner | 3 |
| Peprah | 3 |
| Albright | 3 |
| Jenkins | 2 |
| Coleman - OUT | 2 |
| Frampton | 2 |
| Moore | 2 |
| Lewis - GONE | 1 |
| Church - OUT | 1 |
| Schaefering | 1 |
| Coe | 1 |
| Poppinga | 1 |
| Sims | 1 |
| Team Total | 218 |
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BLITZING REPORT
The blitz played almost no role on Sunday. The Redskins hardly passed and the Cowboys clearly do not want to blitz Griffin. In 2 games, they have blitzed 7 times in 49 attempts.
| Q-Time | D/D/Yd | Play | Rushers |
| 4-10:41 | 1/10/D32 | A Morris +32 yards, TD | -- |
| 3-5:51 | 1/10/O40 | A Morris, +22 yards | -- |
| Q-Time | D/D/Yd | Play | Rushers |
| 4-4:01 | 3/8/D37 | Spencer Sacks Griffin | 5 |
Pass Rushers Against New Orleans - 52 pass rush/blitz situations:
| Pass Rushers | 1st D | 2nd D | 3rd D | 4th D | Total |
| 3 Rush | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 Rush | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 Rush | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Totals | 5 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 19 |
And, here are the full season numbers to date:
| Pass Rushers | 1st D | 2nd D | 3rd D | 4th D | Total |
| 3 Rush | 22 - 12% | 30 - 15% | 35 - 21% | 1- 12% | 88 - 16% |
| 4 Rush | 123 - 66% | 114 - 59% | 87 - 53% | 5 - 62% | 329 - 60% |
| 5 Rush | 37 - 20% | 43 - 22% | 32 - 19% | 2 - 25% | 114 - 21% |
| 6 Rush | 5 - 2% | 6 - 3% | 9 - 5% | 0 | 20 - 4% |
| Totals | 187 | 193 | 163 | 8 | 551 |
The game by game pressure numbers:
Wk 1 - NYG: 11/37 - 30%Wk 2 - SEA: 10/26 - 38%
Wk 3 - TB: 12/32 - 37%
Wk 4 - CHI: 12/27 - 44%
Wk 5 - BAL: 10/27 - 37%
Wk 6 - CAR: 9/39 - 23%
Wk 7 - NYG: 2/31 - 6%
Wk 8 - ATL: 5/37 - 14%
Wk 9 - PHI: 7/43 - 16%
Wk 10 - CLE: 4/36 - 11%
Wk 11 - WAS 3/30 - 10%
Wk 12 - PHI 6/36 - 16%
Wk 13 - CIN 11/37 - 30%
Wk 14 - PIT 13/42 - 31%
Wk 15 - NO 15/52 - 29%
Wk 16 - WAS 4/19 - 21%
In the end, the team just collapsed defensively due to personnel issues - some were bad luck and some revealed poor roster construction.
But, there is a belief that this defense is close when they get all of their pieces back. But, that success will hinge on finding quality reserves in a hurry, because injuries will happen every year in this violent sport.
Thursday, January 03, 2013
On Play Calling, Norv, and Physicality
I realize that today is normally reserved for the defensive breakdowns, but I have decided to hold off until tomorrow (what is the rush, really, with the next game in about 9 months?) so that we may discuss the Cowboys "news of the day" and speak on something I am being asked quite a bit about.
Yesterday, on his radio show Jerry Jones offered the following quote: "I can assure our fans this, that it's going to be very uncomfortable from my standpoint, it's going to be very uncomfortable for the next few weeks and months at Valley Ranch," Jones told KRLD FM.
So, what could this mean? What is he talking about? Certainly, given that every team has to change every year in the NFL with free agency and the draft, we are left to assume that he is exercising his right to be a blowhard or that he has big changes in a "non-player" sort of way.
From there, we can assume he has no plans on relieving himself as general manager, and we will work our way down the organizational depth chart.
Is it time for new head coach at Valley Ranch? 40 games into his tenure for the Dallas Cowboys, Jason Garrett is 21-19 as head coach, which is a record that must be considered roughly break-even from a standpoint of rating that sort of record either under-performing or over-achieving. He took over a team that appeared to possess 8-8 talent and has kept them at roughly that level while turning over quite a bit of the roster.
I would not argue hard against the firing of Jason Garrett provided it was to turn the team over to a certain type of coach that could be seen as more of an organizational architect. That could be defined a number of ways, so let me clearly explain that to me that is the top tier of expensive, leverage-possessing coaches who could demand and receive a certain level of authority that is rarely afforded to a coach of the Cowboys. Since Jimmy Johnson, this was only given to Bill Parcells - a man who did not take over every responsibility when he was here, but he had the guts to say whatever was on his mind and only deferred to his boss when he wanted to.
There is no tangible value on a coach who is clearly the leader of an organization, but the issues that persist when one does not reside here are bothersome. I think Jason Garrett gets the most authority of anyone hand-picked by Jerry Jones, but that is way different than someone who arrives under the condition that he is in charge.
Did Jason Garrett have the right to take Felix Jones off of kick returns and Dez off of punt returns? It didn't seem like it earlier in the season. It looked like he had to wait until he could sell it to his boss. And to me, that is really screwed up if a head coach has to campaign for things that basic to coaching a team.
But, enough about that. Assuming that there are no plans to hire an organizational architect to replace Jason Garrett, I am fine with Garrett remaining here to continue his rebuild of this program. I do think progress is being made, but at 8-8, the results haven't shown up yet. There is a delicate balance with growing the program while understanding the urgency that the ages of Tony Romo, Jason Witten, and DeMarcus Ware demand. I refuse to discuss a window and whether it is open or not, but if you have a group of exceptional players who are all beyond their 30th birthdays then time is short.
I also don't think I would campaign for a dismissal of Rob Ryan. I believe in what he likes to do and although nobody wants to hear this, I still don't think we have much of an idea of what he would like to do with this crew. In 2011, he had a very poor personnel situation at corner and in 2012, he enjoyed about a month of Sean Lee and Bruce Carter together with a legit pair of corners. They need health and a better defensive line group, but this defense is not far away if you ask me.
Which now brings the conversation to the idea of play-calling and the coordination of the offense. I think Jason Garrett is a bright offensive mind, but I also believe that he has had more than enough time to sort this offense better than he has. You could make the case that he was sabotaged by a poor personnel offseason as it pertains to the offensive line, but 6 years is a long time.
6 years for a play-caller and a QB to work together is a very rare luxury in the NFL, generally afforded to iconic offenses that are clearly not broken so there is no need to fix them. This offense, on the other hand, is never confused for flawless, and looks more problematic every year, despite continuity at QB and near perfect health all season on the unit.
This coordinator does not value the running game, and he never has. In his 6 years running this offense, the team has never ranked higher than 15th in rushing attempts and has also become a team that almost never wins the battle at the line of scrimmage. Physical play is not emphasized and therefore it is not received. The Cowboys set a franchise low for rushing yards in a season in 2012 and instead put everything on the shoulders of their passing game and their QB. When you consider the physical style of the offensive line in San Francisco, it in no way resembles what the Cowboys have built, but it demonstrates how you build a team that does not count on its Quarterback to accomplish everything. The offensive lines in New Orleans or Green Bay do not scare anyone, but they seem to be happy to rely on their QB for everything. If we have decided that Romo is not of the elite quality of Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, then perhaps you cannot build your team like they do. Perhaps, occasionally, you want to win a game with a physical brand of football. But, Jason Garrett is not thinking that way.
Which is why the Norv Turner idea does not appeal to me. At least one of them. But, since so many people have asked my views on Norv and why I don't seem as interested in him as many others, allow me to detail my thoughts.
1) - Norv Turner does not care to run the ball, either. Well, he of course, coordinated a run-first offense in Dallas 20 years ago, but if you watch San Diego recently, they also appear to fancy themselves a team that passes quite a bit. Now, of course, in the Ladanian Tomlinson years they ran more, but since then it has gone all-passing, all the time. And I realize that passing is what makes this league go around, but Phil Rivers and Tony Romo are good, but not good enough at putting everything on them all week every week. Instead, Romo flourishes when the offense is balanced up and unpredictable, but it seldom is. If I am going to make a change, I would prefer it would be to someone who believes that running the football is more than something you do to run the clock. You do it to send a physical message to both teams that this is going to require some muscle to win today.
2) - The offense would be very similar to what it is now. Maybe I would have more use for the Jason Garrett offense if there was not always so much confusion on blitz-proof hot routes and a constant flirtation with delay of game calls that allows opponents to time their blitzes with 1 second left on the play clock. And maybe that is worth pursuing. I wish there was more use of shallow crossing routes and perimeter screens, but overall, I just wish it looked like the Cowboys were more fluent in their own language.
3) - It is the most "Jerry Jones" decision that Jerry Jones could make. And maybe, I need to get past that and accept that just because it seems like a Jerry Jones move - to reassemble the Jimmy Johnson coaching staff or anything that reminds him of 1992-1995 - doesn't mean it is wrong. I don't think that constantly returning to an era when the Cowboys were successful is a horrible idea, but the similarities of the NFL in 1992 and 2012 are very rare. Back then, the Cowboys seldom turned over personnel groupings and specialized substitutions and frankly, admitted to a very limited playbook. That doesn't mean the same system couldn't work now days, but football has tactically come a long, long ways. Norv has obviously developed plenty since then, but unless he is bringing Troy, Emmitt, and that offensive line with him in a time machine that keeps them all at their ages in 1992, I don't think it gets me too excited. Think about this: Troy Aikman hardly ever used shotgun. Now, the Cowboys used shotgun on 565 snaps in 2012. The sport is seen differently than it used to be.
Now, having said all of that, I am a big believer in the idea that Jason Garrett could use some help and a fresh set of eyes. I don't think that he is great at always looking on top of every decision as he tries to handle play-calling and the multiple responsibilities of being a head coach and an offensive coordinator.
So, if the changes at Valley Ranch mean that somebody new gets to try to make more sense of this offense, I am all for it. I think it might be time for a new coach to have a chance to figure out how to blend Romo's ability with a running game and a more physical offensive line. I am for that, and I am now wondering if it is going to happen.
In fact, I wonder if today or this week, Jerry is meeting with Garrett to discuss how this might work, why it should be tried, and who would be the guy to join them. Perhaps, if Garrett is not open to changes, his own job security might be discussed.
Change is good sometimes in the NFL. Ramming your head against the same walls after coordinator and QB have been together since 2007 is too frustrating to go on. I want to see what might happen if the Cowboys started getting the play in to Romo with enough time to comfortably get the snap off. And to do so at a time where the defense cannot sit on the snap because of its proximity to :00.
Do I have a list of names in mind? No, but this should not be about hiring a recognizable name. Too many brilliant minds in football are young and unproven.
I'm just sure I don't want to see another year where the receiver looks confused on his hot route, Romo is yelling "kill, kill, kill!" with :02 left on the play-clock, and another record is set for lowest rushing yards.
I am fine with trying something new.
Yesterday, on his radio show Jerry Jones offered the following quote: "I can assure our fans this, that it's going to be very uncomfortable from my standpoint, it's going to be very uncomfortable for the next few weeks and months at Valley Ranch," Jones told KRLD FM.
So, what could this mean? What is he talking about? Certainly, given that every team has to change every year in the NFL with free agency and the draft, we are left to assume that he is exercising his right to be a blowhard or that he has big changes in a "non-player" sort of way.
From there, we can assume he has no plans on relieving himself as general manager, and we will work our way down the organizational depth chart.
Is it time for new head coach at Valley Ranch? 40 games into his tenure for the Dallas Cowboys, Jason Garrett is 21-19 as head coach, which is a record that must be considered roughly break-even from a standpoint of rating that sort of record either under-performing or over-achieving. He took over a team that appeared to possess 8-8 talent and has kept them at roughly that level while turning over quite a bit of the roster.
I would not argue hard against the firing of Jason Garrett provided it was to turn the team over to a certain type of coach that could be seen as more of an organizational architect. That could be defined a number of ways, so let me clearly explain that to me that is the top tier of expensive, leverage-possessing coaches who could demand and receive a certain level of authority that is rarely afforded to a coach of the Cowboys. Since Jimmy Johnson, this was only given to Bill Parcells - a man who did not take over every responsibility when he was here, but he had the guts to say whatever was on his mind and only deferred to his boss when he wanted to.
There is no tangible value on a coach who is clearly the leader of an organization, but the issues that persist when one does not reside here are bothersome. I think Jason Garrett gets the most authority of anyone hand-picked by Jerry Jones, but that is way different than someone who arrives under the condition that he is in charge.
Did Jason Garrett have the right to take Felix Jones off of kick returns and Dez off of punt returns? It didn't seem like it earlier in the season. It looked like he had to wait until he could sell it to his boss. And to me, that is really screwed up if a head coach has to campaign for things that basic to coaching a team.
But, enough about that. Assuming that there are no plans to hire an organizational architect to replace Jason Garrett, I am fine with Garrett remaining here to continue his rebuild of this program. I do think progress is being made, but at 8-8, the results haven't shown up yet. There is a delicate balance with growing the program while understanding the urgency that the ages of Tony Romo, Jason Witten, and DeMarcus Ware demand. I refuse to discuss a window and whether it is open or not, but if you have a group of exceptional players who are all beyond their 30th birthdays then time is short.
I also don't think I would campaign for a dismissal of Rob Ryan. I believe in what he likes to do and although nobody wants to hear this, I still don't think we have much of an idea of what he would like to do with this crew. In 2011, he had a very poor personnel situation at corner and in 2012, he enjoyed about a month of Sean Lee and Bruce Carter together with a legit pair of corners. They need health and a better defensive line group, but this defense is not far away if you ask me.
Which now brings the conversation to the idea of play-calling and the coordination of the offense. I think Jason Garrett is a bright offensive mind, but I also believe that he has had more than enough time to sort this offense better than he has. You could make the case that he was sabotaged by a poor personnel offseason as it pertains to the offensive line, but 6 years is a long time.
6 years for a play-caller and a QB to work together is a very rare luxury in the NFL, generally afforded to iconic offenses that are clearly not broken so there is no need to fix them. This offense, on the other hand, is never confused for flawless, and looks more problematic every year, despite continuity at QB and near perfect health all season on the unit.
This coordinator does not value the running game, and he never has. In his 6 years running this offense, the team has never ranked higher than 15th in rushing attempts and has also become a team that almost never wins the battle at the line of scrimmage. Physical play is not emphasized and therefore it is not received. The Cowboys set a franchise low for rushing yards in a season in 2012 and instead put everything on the shoulders of their passing game and their QB. When you consider the physical style of the offensive line in San Francisco, it in no way resembles what the Cowboys have built, but it demonstrates how you build a team that does not count on its Quarterback to accomplish everything. The offensive lines in New Orleans or Green Bay do not scare anyone, but they seem to be happy to rely on their QB for everything. If we have decided that Romo is not of the elite quality of Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, then perhaps you cannot build your team like they do. Perhaps, occasionally, you want to win a game with a physical brand of football. But, Jason Garrett is not thinking that way.
Which is why the Norv Turner idea does not appeal to me. At least one of them. But, since so many people have asked my views on Norv and why I don't seem as interested in him as many others, allow me to detail my thoughts.
1) - Norv Turner does not care to run the ball, either. Well, he of course, coordinated a run-first offense in Dallas 20 years ago, but if you watch San Diego recently, they also appear to fancy themselves a team that passes quite a bit. Now, of course, in the Ladanian Tomlinson years they ran more, but since then it has gone all-passing, all the time. And I realize that passing is what makes this league go around, but Phil Rivers and Tony Romo are good, but not good enough at putting everything on them all week every week. Instead, Romo flourishes when the offense is balanced up and unpredictable, but it seldom is. If I am going to make a change, I would prefer it would be to someone who believes that running the football is more than something you do to run the clock. You do it to send a physical message to both teams that this is going to require some muscle to win today.
2) - The offense would be very similar to what it is now. Maybe I would have more use for the Jason Garrett offense if there was not always so much confusion on blitz-proof hot routes and a constant flirtation with delay of game calls that allows opponents to time their blitzes with 1 second left on the play clock. And maybe that is worth pursuing. I wish there was more use of shallow crossing routes and perimeter screens, but overall, I just wish it looked like the Cowboys were more fluent in their own language.
3) - It is the most "Jerry Jones" decision that Jerry Jones could make. And maybe, I need to get past that and accept that just because it seems like a Jerry Jones move - to reassemble the Jimmy Johnson coaching staff or anything that reminds him of 1992-1995 - doesn't mean it is wrong. I don't think that constantly returning to an era when the Cowboys were successful is a horrible idea, but the similarities of the NFL in 1992 and 2012 are very rare. Back then, the Cowboys seldom turned over personnel groupings and specialized substitutions and frankly, admitted to a very limited playbook. That doesn't mean the same system couldn't work now days, but football has tactically come a long, long ways. Norv has obviously developed plenty since then, but unless he is bringing Troy, Emmitt, and that offensive line with him in a time machine that keeps them all at their ages in 1992, I don't think it gets me too excited. Think about this: Troy Aikman hardly ever used shotgun. Now, the Cowboys used shotgun on 565 snaps in 2012. The sport is seen differently than it used to be.
Now, having said all of that, I am a big believer in the idea that Jason Garrett could use some help and a fresh set of eyes. I don't think that he is great at always looking on top of every decision as he tries to handle play-calling and the multiple responsibilities of being a head coach and an offensive coordinator.
So, if the changes at Valley Ranch mean that somebody new gets to try to make more sense of this offense, I am all for it. I think it might be time for a new coach to have a chance to figure out how to blend Romo's ability with a running game and a more physical offensive line. I am for that, and I am now wondering if it is going to happen.
In fact, I wonder if today or this week, Jerry is meeting with Garrett to discuss how this might work, why it should be tried, and who would be the guy to join them. Perhaps, if Garrett is not open to changes, his own job security might be discussed.
Change is good sometimes in the NFL. Ramming your head against the same walls after coordinator and QB have been together since 2007 is too frustrating to go on. I want to see what might happen if the Cowboys started getting the play in to Romo with enough time to comfortably get the snap off. And to do so at a time where the defense cannot sit on the snap because of its proximity to :00.
Do I have a list of names in mind? No, but this should not be about hiring a recognizable name. Too many brilliant minds in football are young and unproven.
I'm just sure I don't want to see another year where the receiver looks confused on his hot route, Romo is yelling "kill, kill, kill!" with :02 left on the play-clock, and another record is set for lowest rushing yards.
I am fine with trying something new.
Wednesday, January 02, 2013
Decoding Garrett - Wk 16 - Redskins
As we sift through the rubble of another late-season failure, we are constantly reminded that the defense was hit with circumstances that nearly made their tasks impossible by the end of the year. The inside linebackers were different, the safeties were different, and the defensive line was different than what left training camp. Only the 2 outside linebackers and the 2 starting cornerbacks resembled the actual play of August and September.
Meanwhile, there is no such convenient excuses for the offense. The 11 starters who started Week 16 were the exact same 11 players who played the majority of the snaps of the season opener in New York. I say it that way because we all remember Phil Costa took the first 3 snaps of the season at center and then barely played again the rest of the year (he took a total of 126 snaps, Ryan Cook played 837 at center).
Otherwise, it was Romo with Murray and Vickers; Witten, Bryant, and Austin as the main targets; and Smith, Livings, Bernadeau, and Free across the front. They were beat up and the receivers could not finish the game, but 11 of the 11 players from Week 1 were there and ready in Week 16 in Washington.
And, in fairness, the offense played some of its better football late in the season when the defense was holding on for dear life. But that ended in Washington, where the Cowboys had one of their worst offensive performances at just the wrong time.
But, let's be careful how we label this one. Because there is a real difference between the season-view of certain failures and Sunday's failure. Many times this season, the offensive line and the running game betrayed them. Other times, the game plan seemed overly conservative or careful. Still others, there was no pass protection to speak of.
But, in this particular game, the coaches will look at the tape and they will see evidence of things that will drive them absolutely crazy.
For instance, in the volatile running game results that were predictably poor all season, the Cowboys ran the ball with great effectiveness in Washington. Without the aid of only 1 run of over 10 yards, the Cowboys found consistent running in small, but useful chunks all game long. 4.5 yards per carry in a divisional road game was almost too good to be true. It was the 3rd best results of their season (only at New York and at Baltimore were better) and I am quite sure that they all would have signed up for those results before the game started.
Further, the average starting field position of each drive was 2nd best for the season. They was only one other game all season (Tampa Bay) where the Cowboys were given the ball at an average better spot than their own 33 yard line.
They ran the ball well. They "stayed ahead of the chains". They were balanced up and further, they were actually quite efficient on 3rd Downs. Further, they played a team that passed for only 100 yards.
Most weeks, indicators like all of these would point to a Cowboys offense that was healthy and probably had plenty of success. The symptoms point to a game that was probably won.
And almost none of it mattered because they were sabotaged by taking a -3 in the turnover margin. And of those 3 picks, almost all of the blame of the throws must go to the Quarterback and the fact that he was done in by a coach (Jim Haslett) who beat him with strong corner play on Dez Bryant and very little else that was remarkable - save for an insatiable thirst to bring pressure all day long.
We detailed the issues on Monday Morning in our "Morning After" column, where it seems they were betrayed by Tony Romo.
Playing an opponent for the 2nd time and being a veteran QB who had "seen it all", Romo had to be able to back off the pressure by making the Redskins pay. Instead, it was a constant battle against the play clock to get his troops deployed and then to get the snap off before what appeared to often be a rather panicked few seconds of avoiding blitzers.
From Monday:
I repeat what I have said before: This is NOT like the other end of season failures where everything could be blamed. This was a game that after further examination remains one in which so many things went better than expected that the game simply came down to one team protecting the football and one team did not.
-3.
Let us remind again what that number means:
Again, my thoughts on the Tony Romo era continuing are not a secret, but there is no rationale anywhere for a team being able to compete and win when their most important player lays an egg at just the wrong moment like Romo did Sunday night in Washington.
And for that, it is pointless to defend his career right now. This is a time where he unfortunately played like his critics have claimed all along.
Data from Week 16 at Washington:
PASSING CHARTS:
Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.
Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.
1st Half -
2nd Half -
Look how poorly the ball went out to the right flank. On good nights, that is where the Cowboys do most of their damage. But, look at all of the red over there. Nothing could get cooking. Rather, most of Romo's yards came on the favorite "Dig" route - the 15 yard deep in that is completed straight ahead and between the hash marks.
Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -
Wk 1-At New York: 9 Drives - 5 Run/4 Pass
Wk 2-At Seattle: 9 Drives - 3 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Tampa Bay: 13 Drives - 7 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Chicago: 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 5-At Baltimore: 10 Drives - 8 Run/2 Pass
Wk 6-At Carolina 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 7-New York: 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 8-At Atlanta: 9 Drives - 4 Run/5 Pass
Wk 9-At Philadelphia: 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 10-Cleveland: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 11-Washington: 12 Drives - 3 Run/9 Pass
Wk 12-Philadelphia: 8 Drives - 5 Run/3 Pass
Wk 13-At Cincinnati: 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-Pittsburgh: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Wk 15-New Orleans: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Wk 16-At Washington: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Season: 173 Drives* 76 Run/97 Pass - 43.9% Run
* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives (there are 6 this year).
2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run
SHOTGUN SNAPS-
Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated. High Shotgun numbers are not this team's calling card for success.
The Cowboys must decide what to do about this issue in 2013. The trend and differences from 2011 are startling.
Wk 1 - at NYG: 15/54 27.7%
Wk 2 - at Sea: 29/56 52%
Wk 3 - TB: 34/63 54%
Wk 4 - Chi: 50/68 74%
Wk 5 - at Balt: 19/79 24%
Wk 6 - at Car: 22/64 34%
Wk 7 - NYG: 48/83 58%
Wk 8 - at Atl: 29/54 54%
Wk 9 - at Phil: 17/54 31%
Wk 10 - Cle: 52/76 68%
Wk 11 - Wash: 62/75 83%
Wk 12 - Phil: 24/62 38%
Wk 13 - Cin: 43/70 61%
Wk 14 - Pit: 35/63 55%
Wk 15 - NO: 42/56 75%
Wk 16 - Wash: 34/61 56%
2012 Season Total: 565/1038 54%
2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%
Here is the breakdown by groupings:
Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.
Totals by Personnel Groups:
Now, as you look at the breakdown with personnel groupings, it is actually interesting to see how the Cowboys did not try a whole lot of deception. When they went under center, they were primarily running the ball - 27 snaps and 21 of those were running plays - all for good yardage.
And when they went to shotgun, they passed. 34 snaps and 33 were passes. This does make us ask if more could have been done to cross up the Redskins defense a bit with more balanced attacks either way.
If they are sending the house when you are in shotgun, do you have a chance to sneak a run through their blitz? Because if you can break through the blitz, there should be nothing but green grass.
* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.
Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:
Meanwhile, there is no such convenient excuses for the offense. The 11 starters who started Week 16 were the exact same 11 players who played the majority of the snaps of the season opener in New York. I say it that way because we all remember Phil Costa took the first 3 snaps of the season at center and then barely played again the rest of the year (he took a total of 126 snaps, Ryan Cook played 837 at center).
Otherwise, it was Romo with Murray and Vickers; Witten, Bryant, and Austin as the main targets; and Smith, Livings, Bernadeau, and Free across the front. They were beat up and the receivers could not finish the game, but 11 of the 11 players from Week 1 were there and ready in Week 16 in Washington.
And, in fairness, the offense played some of its better football late in the season when the defense was holding on for dear life. But that ended in Washington, where the Cowboys had one of their worst offensive performances at just the wrong time.
But, let's be careful how we label this one. Because there is a real difference between the season-view of certain failures and Sunday's failure. Many times this season, the offensive line and the running game betrayed them. Other times, the game plan seemed overly conservative or careful. Still others, there was no pass protection to speak of.
But, in this particular game, the coaches will look at the tape and they will see evidence of things that will drive them absolutely crazy.
For instance, in the volatile running game results that were predictably poor all season, the Cowboys ran the ball with great effectiveness in Washington. Without the aid of only 1 run of over 10 yards, the Cowboys found consistent running in small, but useful chunks all game long. 4.5 yards per carry in a divisional road game was almost too good to be true. It was the 3rd best results of their season (only at New York and at Baltimore were better) and I am quite sure that they all would have signed up for those results before the game started.
Further, the average starting field position of each drive was 2nd best for the season. They was only one other game all season (Tampa Bay) where the Cowboys were given the ball at an average better spot than their own 33 yard line.
They ran the ball well. They "stayed ahead of the chains". They were balanced up and further, they were actually quite efficient on 3rd Downs. Further, they played a team that passed for only 100 yards.
Most weeks, indicators like all of these would point to a Cowboys offense that was healthy and probably had plenty of success. The symptoms point to a game that was probably won.
And almost none of it mattered because they were sabotaged by taking a -3 in the turnover margin. And of those 3 picks, almost all of the blame of the throws must go to the Quarterback and the fact that he was done in by a coach (Jim Haslett) who beat him with strong corner play on Dez Bryant and very little else that was remarkable - save for an insatiable thirst to bring pressure all day long.
We detailed the issues on Monday Morning in our "Morning After" column, where it seems they were betrayed by Tony Romo.
Playing an opponent for the 2nd time and being a veteran QB who had "seen it all", Romo had to be able to back off the pressure by making the Redskins pay. Instead, it was a constant battle against the play clock to get his troops deployed and then to get the snap off before what appeared to often be a rather panicked few seconds of avoiding blitzers.
From Monday:
The Redskins blitzed at every opportunity. In fact, for the game, they blitzed in 25 of 39 passing scenarios and 24 of 34 when the Cowboys were in shotgun. They blitzed and blitzed. And on 2nd down, Jim Haslett sent pressure on 8 of 11 passes, and on 3rd Down it was 10 out of 12. They dared the Cowboys to beat them, and the Cowboys did not.Instead, the 3 interceptions - each for different reasons, but all 3 were deadly - proved to be more than the team could overcome.
I repeat what I have said before: This is NOT like the other end of season failures where everything could be blamed. This was a game that after further examination remains one in which so many things went better than expected that the game simply came down to one team protecting the football and one team did not.
-3.
Let us remind again what that number means:
But, in the end, they lost because they took a -3 in their biggest game of the year. With 116 games in Cowboys history in which they were a -3 in turnover differential, the Cowboys record falls to a 10-104-2 record. And in the Romo-era? Well, the record is now 1-15. In other words, you don't win games when you turn the ball over that much.Further, we can expand it beyond the Cowboys. In the entire NFL since 2010, the record for teams winning a game in which they are a "-3" in turnover ratio is 7-149. That means you have roughly a 4% chance of winning any game in which you are that careless with the football.
Again, my thoughts on the Tony Romo era continuing are not a secret, but there is no rationale anywhere for a team being able to compete and win when their most important player lays an egg at just the wrong moment like Romo did Sunday night in Washington.
And for that, it is pointless to defend his career right now. This is a time where he unfortunately played like his critics have claimed all along.
Data from Week 16 at Washington:
| Run-Pass | 22-39 |
| Starting Field Position | D 33 |
| 1st Down Run-Pass | 13-15 |
| 2nd Down Avg Distance to Go | 6.35 |
| 2nd Down Run-Pass | 8-12 |
| 3rd Down Avg Distance to Go | 6.69 |
| 3rd/4th Down Run-Pass | 1-12 |
| 3rd Down Conversions | 7-13, 54% |
PASSING CHARTS:
Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.
Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.
1st Half -
2nd Half -
Look how poorly the ball went out to the right flank. On good nights, that is where the Cowboys do most of their damage. But, look at all of the red over there. Nothing could get cooking. Rather, most of Romo's yards came on the favorite "Dig" route - the 15 yard deep in that is completed straight ahead and between the hash marks.
This chart shows balls thrown to Dez Bryant - he has won his battles with DeAngelo Hall over his short career, but on this night, there is no doubt the big mouthed corner got the decision.
Wk 1-At New York: 9 Drives - 5 Run/4 Pass
Wk 2-At Seattle: 9 Drives - 3 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Tampa Bay: 13 Drives - 7 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Chicago: 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 5-At Baltimore: 10 Drives - 8 Run/2 Pass
Wk 6-At Carolina 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 7-New York: 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 8-At Atlanta: 9 Drives - 4 Run/5 Pass
Wk 9-At Philadelphia: 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 10-Cleveland: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 11-Washington: 12 Drives - 3 Run/9 Pass
Wk 12-Philadelphia: 8 Drives - 5 Run/3 Pass
Wk 13-At Cincinnati: 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-Pittsburgh: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Wk 15-New Orleans: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Wk 16-At Washington: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Season: 173 Drives* 76 Run/97 Pass - 43.9% Run
* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives (there are 6 this year).
2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run
SHOTGUN SNAPS-
Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated. High Shotgun numbers are not this team's calling card for success.
The Cowboys must decide what to do about this issue in 2013. The trend and differences from 2011 are startling.
Wk 1 - at NYG: 15/54 27.7%
Wk 2 - at Sea: 29/56 52%
Wk 3 - TB: 34/63 54%
Wk 4 - Chi: 50/68 74%
Wk 5 - at Balt: 19/79 24%
Wk 6 - at Car: 22/64 34%
Wk 7 - NYG: 48/83 58%
Wk 8 - at Atl: 29/54 54%
Wk 9 - at Phil: 17/54 31%
Wk 10 - Cle: 52/76 68%
Wk 11 - Wash: 62/75 83%
Wk 12 - Phil: 24/62 38%
Wk 13 - Cin: 43/70 61%
Wk 14 - Pit: 35/63 55%
Wk 15 - NO: 42/56 75%
Wk 16 - Wash: 34/61 56%
2012 Season Total: 565/1038 54%
2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%
Here is the breakdown by groupings:
Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.
Totals by Personnel Groups:
Now, as you look at the breakdown with personnel groupings, it is actually interesting to see how the Cowboys did not try a whole lot of deception. When they went under center, they were primarily running the ball - 27 snaps and 21 of those were running plays - all for good yardage.
And when they went to shotgun, they passed. 34 snaps and 33 were passes. This does make us ask if more could have been done to cross up the Redskins defense a bit with more balanced attacks either way.
If they are sending the house when you are in shotgun, do you have a chance to sneak a run through their blitz? Because if you can break through the blitz, there should be nothing but green grass.
| Package | Plays Run | Yards | Run | Pass |
| 11 | 4 | 20 | 3-9 | 1-11 |
| 12 | 3 | 33 | 1-9 | 2-24 |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 21 | 14 | 71 | 12-59 | 2-12 |
| 22 | 5 | 10 | 4-14 | 1-(-4) |
| 23 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| S01 | 3 | 32 | 0-0 | 3-32 |
| S02 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| S11 | 19 | 72 | 1-8 | 18-64 |
| S12 | 12 | 56 | 0-0 | 12-56 |
| Knee | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Totals | 61 | 295 | 22-100 | 39-195 |
Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:
| Package | Plays | Yards | Run | Pass | FD/TD |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 21 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 22 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 23 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1/0 |
| S01 | 2 | 32 | 0-0 | 2-32 | 1/1 |
| S10 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| S11 | 10 | 33 | 0-0 | 10-33 | 1/1 |
| S12 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| Totals | 13 | 66 | 1-1 | 12-65 | 3/2 |
In the end, we find that this is a game where the statistics do not tell the whole story, unless you see that turnover margin that pretty much canceled out all of the good that was accomplished.
As a play caller, I have plenty of issues with Jason Garrett over the course of 6 seasons. But, in a one-game portrait, he did his job reasonably well. Did they try enough screen plays to take the pressure off the inside? No, but they did throw several passes out to the edge to beat the blitz - including the last interception. The throw betrayed the strategy.
Garrett deployed the troops, but his QB has to make great decisions. A coach cannot make them for him after he prepares him the best he can.
And in this game, I don't believe you can blame the offensive line, the play calling, or any other target.
This seems like the rare occasion where the Cowboys were just sabotaged by inferior QB play that was mostly based on a few decisions that did not value the ball enough or the game situation (the last INT was a risky throw on 1st Down).
Most Sundays, if Tony Romo is your QB, you are going to be alright. This game, with everything on the line, was not one of them.
Monday, December 31, 2012
The Morning After: Redskins 28, Cowboys 18 (8-8)
That is how another Cowboys season ends. That is how 2012, like so many years before it, ends. A season that had plenty of things to like and plenty of things to not like, ends in tears on the final day of the season.
Haven't we been here before? Several times?
But, for some reason, this one feels a bit different to me than 2011. In 2011, I thought the Cowboys were overwhelmed by the New York Giants in the final game of the season because of the simple mismatch problems that they had no answer for. There was no strategy or posture that was going to allow that Cowboys OL to handle the DL of the Giants. It just wasn't happening. And Terence Newman to stick with Victor Cruz? That wasn't happening either.
But, this one, despite the familiar result, seemed a much different style of loss. To me, especially from an offensive standpoint, this one felt like the Cowboys suffered the most disappointing of failures on the field at the home of their hated rivals. This one felt like a self-inflicted defeat, full of wasted opportunities and poor execution.
Sure, the Redskins blitzed at every opportunity. In fact, for the game, they blitzed in 25 of 39 passing scenarios and 24 of 34 when the Cowboys were in shotgun. They blitzed and blitzed. And on 2nd down, Jim Haslett sent pressure on 8 of 11 passes, and on 3rd Down it was 10 out of 12. They dared the Cowboys to beat them, and the Cowboys did not.
Now, when a team blitzes that often, they are telling you two things. 1) they are saying that they think you do not handle pressure very well and if they speed up your situations and hit you a bit, you will perform at a lower level than if they allow you to get comfortable. But, don't forget what they are also saying, 2) they are suggesting that they don't think they can get pressure any other way. With Brian Orakpo on injured reserve, the Redskins are a team that is not loaded with pass rushing excellence. If they just send 4, they likely do not get sacks. So, they add players to the rush which subtracts players from coverage.
And you must make them pay.
That is why this offensive performance must be positioned as nothing short of a failure. The job, in particular by Tony Romo - the man who is most responsible for the Cowboys being in this position to begin with - was just not nearly at the level it needed to be to win a tough divisional road game on the final night of the season.
Romo, as I am sure you are well aware, picked a horrendous time for his 4th multi-interception game of 2012. In those 4 games, as you might imagine, the Cowboys were winless. The first 3 were home games against the Bears, Giants, and these same Redskins, but this one had all of the trimmings of a playoff game and the picks were all damaging and key.
But, no interception of Romo's career might hurt as much as the last one of 2012. For that was a pick that comes down to that moment that everyone dreams when they discuss the credentials of their favorite QB. They always ask the question, "can this guy get your team down the field on that one drive with everything on the line?"
There it was. 3:35 to play in the game, down 21-18. A quick 14 yard gainer to Witten down the middle gave the Cowboys breathing room out to their own 29. And on 1st and 10 from their own 29, they hurried to the line with shotgun again with 3:06 to go.
The Redskins bring tons of pressure all game and that particular blitz was seen on several occasions. In fairness to Romo, if he can get the ball over the top of Rob Jackson, the right outside linebacker who starts toward Romo and then peels off to stay with Murray, then Murray will have the ability to run a long, long ways. The Redskins are defending with recklessness and despite their success, if the Cowboys can break one play on this final drive, they can win the game and the NFC East.
But, because of the pressure, Romo is back-pedaling. This will not allow him to measure his throw with any amount of precision. And because he is off balance, his lofted throw is short and Jackson is able to recover and and attack the ball, securing it for the biggest play of his career.
There are a number of problems with this decision from your QB, with the most obvious one being that it is 1st Down. You cannot likely survive a sack, but this is where you either see Witten open over the blitz or you throw the ball into the sideline. You cannot make a risky throw on 1st Down with everything on the line. And you also cannot excuse him because of some Jim Haslett ambush call. That blitz was as predictable as could be after seeing his calls for 57 minutes already. Romo just got it wrong at the most inopportune time - possibly of his career.
And this is where the Cowboys' QB is again; In a place where he will unfortunately have to serve as a piñata for the next several months as people who barely watched him will latch on to the easy narrative rather than considering a very strong season running an offense that made him over-come obstacle after obstacle all year long. He is good enough to carry a team for months at a time, so how come he isn't good enough to perform at an efficient level in this one-game scenario last night against an equally-battered team?
I will continue to say that the Quarterback is not holding this franchise back - not at any level. But, that doesn't mean that he didn't let them down last night. In fact, this was a spot where we knew that they needed their best players to be their best players, and as much as I appreciate the challenges he has to deal with, he simply had to do better than he did with his opportunities on this Sunday night.
Let me define that: Did you know the Cowboys had the ball in Washington territory on 8 of their first 9 possessions last night?
8 times on the Washington end of the field in their first 9 possessions (they only had 11 - the 10th possession was the interception to Jackson and the 11th possession was the garbage time sequence with 1 minute left) only resulted in 3 scores. 3 others ended in punts from plus territory and then, of course, the 2 interceptions that both ended drives early.
And that is the real killer. The running game was working. The play calling was balanced. Honestly, the game-plan was rather sound and the offensive line was playing at a reasonably decent level. And that is why you sit here today and feel that the Cowboys should have been able to win that game, despite not having any real ability to stop the Redskins rushing attack.
But, in the end, they lost because they took a -3 in their biggest game of the year. With 116 games in Cowboys history in which they were a -3 in turnover differential, the Cowboys record falls to a 10-104-2 record. And in the Romo-era? Well, the record is now 1-15. In other words, you don't win games when you turn the ball over that much.
Some years, the conversation is much wider and more nuanced about what went wrong. In 2008, the team was just not together when they went to Philadelphia. They had a divided locker-room and needed to make changes. In 2011, they ran into a better team in the final game.
But, last night, with Robert Griffin unable to do anything more than limp-jog, a defense that could not get pressure without blitzing, and an offense that hardly completed a pass down the field all night long, I am hard-pressed to say they ran into a better team.
I think that was a winnable game that had a lot of variables fall the Cowboys way with big special teams plays, a missed field goal, and even a timely late game sack (Anthony Spencer again) that gave the Cowboys a chance to over-come everything that went wrong to that point.
They had the ball and were only down 3. They had all kinds of time and a kicker who certainly seemed able to get you to overtime if you just completed a few more passes. And that is why I am choosing to make this column about a guy that I have spent a lot of time appreciating over the years. This one is squarely on Tony Romo for picking a really poor time to make his worst throw of the season at precisely a moment in which he could not make that throw.
That is how his position is judged. All of the fantasy football numbers do not matter, it seems. When you melt away the numbers and games that do not stick, most players are remembered for a few plays made at high-leveraged moments when we are all watching.
One of those happened last night for Tony. And that is why he will continue to be a polarizing topic, just as he has been since 2007 when he went from being an underdog to a national celebrity in a matter of months.
He is a heck of a player and I would wonder what the 2012 Cowboys record would have been with Jon Kitna or Kyle Orton at the helm (5-11?), but the truth is that last night was a game that was there to be won and it ended just like the others - with an apologetic Romo at the podium talking about what went wrong and how this will test his team's resolve as they look to next season.
The Cowboys will likely grant him a massive contract extension this off-season because unlike most of their fans, they do recognize that however unfortunate that moment was last night, you still need to hang on to a really good QB until you have a better idea. And for every QB you would happily trade Romo for (Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Brees), there are way more that you would not want to see replace him.
He is what he is. Which most weeks is quite solid. And that is why the Cowboys simply must improve their squad to a point where they can win a game in which he doesn't play at his very best. This year they set records for their inability to run the football and they lined up one of the worst offensive lines in club history. They also were exposed for not having enough depth or quality on either the offensive or defensive line.
All of that must improve.
And yet, with a defense that in no way resembled the defense that they left training camp with, they were once again playing for a division title with 3 minutes to play in the season.
So, do you fire and trade everyone - including your quarterback?
No. I am guessing you get to work on building a team that does not have to rely on Romo to get them everywhere they arrive. Because at this point, we seem to have a pretty good idea that that can only take them so far. Like most NFL teams, the Cowboys do not have a QB who can drag the rest of the club all the way to the Super Bowl.
Nobody wants to hear that right now. Romo had the season in his hands last night and he threw it to the other team.
8-8 in 2012 follows 8-8 in 2011. And .500 football goes all the way back to pretty much the last championship parade in early 1996.
And as the Washington Redskins are celebrating what they believe is the start of a long-term football revival built around a Texas kid under center, the agony of defeat ends another year of Dallas Cowboys football.
Saturday, December 29, 2012
Splash Plays - Week 15 - New Orleans
What a truly bizarre game to consider - this late season loss to the Saints - which in retrospect, as far at the NFC East Divisional title had no bearing or significance whatsoever.
Normally, you are able to read about the splash plays on Wednesday, but because of the above fact of insignificance, travel, holidays, and family, I have delayed getting to this study until a few days later. That has allowed me to consider the opinions of others when trying to summarize this game, and as usual, I have a hard time with some of them that I have observed.
Basically, the summary appears to be "what can we expect of the defense given the many injuries?" That, of course, is spot-on in many regards, as they are a rag-tag bunch that does not resemble anything close to the squad that left training camp. But since they will not cancel nor postpone the games, we still have to expect the Cowboys to offer some resistance on defense, and any resistance that we saw on Sunday against the Saints (what must go down as one of the best single-season offenses to not sniff the playoffs) was truly minimal.
They could not get off of the field until points were being added to the Saints totals, as there was seldom a stop any other way. Third down defense was a struggle as Drew Brees and his offense could move the chains at will. Even with a few blatant drops, they still converted 11 3rd Downs into a fresh set of downs and dominated time of possession.
The Cowboys conceded 91 offensive snaps which was the highest play count of 2012 by 21 plays! The previous high was 70 snaps by Cleveland a month ago. 91 was the highest conceded by the Cowboys going all the way back to Tom Landry, and you can believe that it likely goes back to the inception of the franchise.
The 562 yards the Saints put up were not the most conceded all-time by a Cowboys defense, but it was the most since the Houston Oilers ran up 583 yards in 1991. Before that, the Bengals had destroyed the Cowboys for 570 in 1985, but that is it. The next highest yardage total this season was 453 by the Falcons.
And worst of all, the Cowboys had zero takeaways or sacks. Zero. That makes it the only game this season in which the Cowboys did not get to the Quarterback and the 4th game this season where the Cowboys defense had no takeaways. The 4 games, against the Seahawks, Ravens, Falcons, and now, Saints were all losses. That, of course, means that in games in which the Cowboys get at least 1 takeaway from their defense, they have a 8-3 record. Whoa.
So, to consider all of these facts about that game on Sunday and then to observe plaudits being given to the defense tells you of the dire straights they are surely existing in these days. If I would have told Rob Ryan in August that in a key December game against one of the NFL's best offenses that he would have a guy named Eric Frampton playing 52 snaps, Charlie Peprah 46, Sterling Moore 29, Brady Poppinga 25, and Michael Coe 17, then he might not mind that Dan Connor was out there for 66 snaps or Alex Albright for over 50.
Amazing, what they have had to deal with, and amazing that many of us think that group is capable of winning on Sunday night in Washington.
Brees gave out the blue-print for Robert Griffin - just run verticals with your Wide outs and allow your Running Backs to run for acres underneath against what the Cowboys have left at linebacker - which appears to be Anthony Spencer, a one armed version of DeMarcus Ware, and many other guys who are not real household names around here.
Now, the saving grace for the Cowboys is that Darren Sproles doesn't play in Washington, but we have already seen that they have plenty of things they can do with their prolific offensive display on Thanksgiving being all the proof anyone should need.
Scroll down for the blitzing report - which was an interesting study in trying to figure out a plan.
SPLASH PLAYS
Let's take a look at the "Splash Plays" from Week 15 vs the Saints:
Splash Plays are key impact plays from the defense. Usually, they are obvious, but there are some that blur the line. I have listed time and play of each one for those who want to double check my work.
For more, read a detailed explanation of this study here: What is a Splash Play?
WEEK 14 vs New Orleans
Before we get into this study, I will admit that this is one of those weeks where we have splash plays, but we don't have the big ones. And when you don't have the big splash plays, then the little ones look unworthy of tracking. But, I think if we consider the big picture, we know that each play is its own story and we should understand the potential effects of any play made by the defense. But, clearly, in this instance, we see that takeaways and sacks are vital.
Here are the season totals through 15 games:
===========
BLITZING REPORT
The blitz reports for the Saints are a bit tricky, because we see that over the course of 53 passes, the Cowboys tried everything. There are many who are frustrated by blitzing 3, but as you can see below, the Saints found 5 explosive plays, but none of them were against a 3 man blitz. The idea is to keep many bodies behind the ball and then you can corner the mouse (a coaching point about allowing shallow passes and then surrounding the man with the ball) and bring him down.
Conversely, of the 5 big plays, you can see 4 of them were against a blitz that did not get to Brees in time. Of course, broken tackles don't help either, but when you rush 3 you have 8 back in coverage. If you bring 5 or 6, that leaves only 5 or 6 back, where a broken tackle can cost you 20 more yards like on the Sproles play late in the 2nd Quarter.
The Cowboys tried everything to try to shake up the Saints. In the first half they brought pressure on 6 of 30 passes (20%), but in the 2nd, they tried to bring more and more - 9 of 22 passes (41%), but it really didn't make much difference. Brees was hardly touched all day.
Below, we usually look at all of the big defensive plays from a blitzing standpoint. But, since there were 0 big defensive plays on Sunday, this won't take long.
Pass Rushers Against New Orleans - 52 pass rush/blitz situations:
And, here are the full season numbers to date:
Wk 2 - SEA: 10/26 - 38%
Wk 3 - TB: 12/32 - 37%
Wk 4 - CHI: 12/27 - 44%
Wk 5 - BAL: 10/27 - 37%
Wk 6 - CAR: 9/39 - 23%
Wk 7 - NYG: 2/31 - 6%
Wk 8 - ATL: 5/37 - 14%
Wk 9 - PHI: 7/43 - 16%
Wk 10 - CLE: 4/36 - 11%
Wk 11 - WAS 3/30 - 10%
Wk 12 - PHI 6/36 - 16%
Wk 13 - CIN 11/37 - 30%
Wk 14 - PIT 13/42 - 31%
Wk 15 - NO 15/52 - 29%
You can clearly see that late in the year, the Cowboys have realized they have no choice but to gamble. They just don't have the personnel to play straight-up defense anymore like they did for a good part of the year. Against better QBs, they have had to take big risks to have a chance. And, to their credit, they have been in a position to win all 3 games since they have changed this approach.
But, now, it comes down to playing a Redskins side that is confident and sure of its objectives on offense.
The Cowboys will need a day where their secondary can hold up its end of the bargain and force big drives. On Thanksgiving, they gave up 2 giants TD strikes from the other end of the field. They cannot do that on Sunday. They must cause a turnover or two and make the Redskins drive the field.
If they do that, they can pull off a very unlikely division title. If not, their season will end like so many others - on the final week, at the stadium of a hated rival that will be taking great delight in your misfortune.
One game for all of the marbles. This is going to be great fun.
Normally, you are able to read about the splash plays on Wednesday, but because of the above fact of insignificance, travel, holidays, and family, I have delayed getting to this study until a few days later. That has allowed me to consider the opinions of others when trying to summarize this game, and as usual, I have a hard time with some of them that I have observed.
Basically, the summary appears to be "what can we expect of the defense given the many injuries?" That, of course, is spot-on in many regards, as they are a rag-tag bunch that does not resemble anything close to the squad that left training camp. But since they will not cancel nor postpone the games, we still have to expect the Cowboys to offer some resistance on defense, and any resistance that we saw on Sunday against the Saints (what must go down as one of the best single-season offenses to not sniff the playoffs) was truly minimal.
They could not get off of the field until points were being added to the Saints totals, as there was seldom a stop any other way. Third down defense was a struggle as Drew Brees and his offense could move the chains at will. Even with a few blatant drops, they still converted 11 3rd Downs into a fresh set of downs and dominated time of possession.
The Cowboys conceded 91 offensive snaps which was the highest play count of 2012 by 21 plays! The previous high was 70 snaps by Cleveland a month ago. 91 was the highest conceded by the Cowboys going all the way back to Tom Landry, and you can believe that it likely goes back to the inception of the franchise.
The 562 yards the Saints put up were not the most conceded all-time by a Cowboys defense, but it was the most since the Houston Oilers ran up 583 yards in 1991. Before that, the Bengals had destroyed the Cowboys for 570 in 1985, but that is it. The next highest yardage total this season was 453 by the Falcons.
And worst of all, the Cowboys had zero takeaways or sacks. Zero. That makes it the only game this season in which the Cowboys did not get to the Quarterback and the 4th game this season where the Cowboys defense had no takeaways. The 4 games, against the Seahawks, Ravens, Falcons, and now, Saints were all losses. That, of course, means that in games in which the Cowboys get at least 1 takeaway from their defense, they have a 8-3 record. Whoa.
So, to consider all of these facts about that game on Sunday and then to observe plaudits being given to the defense tells you of the dire straights they are surely existing in these days. If I would have told Rob Ryan in August that in a key December game against one of the NFL's best offenses that he would have a guy named Eric Frampton playing 52 snaps, Charlie Peprah 46, Sterling Moore 29, Brady Poppinga 25, and Michael Coe 17, then he might not mind that Dan Connor was out there for 66 snaps or Alex Albright for over 50.
Amazing, what they have had to deal with, and amazing that many of us think that group is capable of winning on Sunday night in Washington.
Brees gave out the blue-print for Robert Griffin - just run verticals with your Wide outs and allow your Running Backs to run for acres underneath against what the Cowboys have left at linebacker - which appears to be Anthony Spencer, a one armed version of DeMarcus Ware, and many other guys who are not real household names around here.
Now, the saving grace for the Cowboys is that Darren Sproles doesn't play in Washington, but we have already seen that they have plenty of things they can do with their prolific offensive display on Thanksgiving being all the proof anyone should need.
Scroll down for the blitzing report - which was an interesting study in trying to figure out a plan.
SPLASH PLAYS
Let's take a look at the "Splash Plays" from Week 15 vs the Saints:
Splash Plays are key impact plays from the defense. Usually, they are obvious, but there are some that blur the line. I have listed time and play of each one for those who want to double check my work.
For more, read a detailed explanation of this study here: What is a Splash Play?
WEEK 14 vs New Orleans
Before we get into this study, I will admit that this is one of those weeks where we have splash plays, but we don't have the big ones. And when you don't have the big splash plays, then the little ones look unworthy of tracking. But, I think if we consider the big picture, we know that each play is its own story and we should understand the potential effects of any play made by the defense. But, clearly, in this instance, we see that takeaways and sacks are vital.
| Q-Time | D/D/Yd | Player | Play |
| 1-11:11 | 1/10/D30 | Ware | Strip |
| 1-6:09 | 2/1/O21 | Moore | Run Stuff |
| 1-0:13 | 2/1/D18 | Lissemore | Run Stuff |
| 2-15:00 | 3/1/D18 | Spears | Run Stuff |
| 2-10:36 | 1/10/O17 | Spencer | Holding Penalty Drawn |
| 2-10:17 | 2/27/O7 | Hatcher | Tackle For Loss |
| 2-1:50 | 2/2/D24 | Frampton | Pass Broken Up |
| 2-1:44 | 3/2/D24 | Poppinga | Pass Broken Up |
| 2-1:17 | 1/G/D2 | Conner | Tackle For Loss |
| 2-0:06 | 3/3/D19 | Claiborne | Pass Broken Up |
| 3-8:35 | 2/5/O46 | Spencer | Tackle For Loss |
| 3-8:33 | 3/8/O43 | Moore | Pass Broken Up |
| 3-4:43 | 3/5/O43 | Sensabaugh | Big Hit Breakup |
| 3-4:16 | 1/G/D6 | Claiborne | Pass Broken Up |
| 4-6:49 | 1/10/D49 | Carr | Run Stuff |
| 4-2:06 | 1/10/O25 | Hatcher | Run Stuff |
| 5-10:43 | 2/9/D34 | Claiborne | Strip |
Here are the season totals through 15 games:
| Player | Splashes |
| Spencer | 34 |
| Ware | 30 |
| Hatcher | 16.5 |
| Claiborne | 16 |
| Carter - OUT | 15 |
| Carr | 13 |
| Lee - OUT | 10 |
| Brent - OUT | 9.5 |
| VButler | 8 |
| Ratliff - OUT | 6 |
| McCray | 6 |
| Sensabaugh | 6 |
| Spears | 6 |
| Scandrick - OUT | 5 |
| Crawford | 5 |
| Lissemore | 4 |
| Conner | 3 |
| Jenkins | 2 |
| Coleman - OUT | 2 |
| Peprah | 2 |
| Frampton | 2 |
| Albright | 2 |
| Moore | 2 |
| Lewis - GONE | 1 |
| Church - OUT | 1 |
| Schaefering | 1 |
| Coe | 1 |
| Poppinga | 1 |
| Team Total | 209 |
===========
BLITZING REPORT
The blitz reports for the Saints are a bit tricky, because we see that over the course of 53 passes, the Cowboys tried everything. There are many who are frustrated by blitzing 3, but as you can see below, the Saints found 5 explosive plays, but none of them were against a 3 man blitz. The idea is to keep many bodies behind the ball and then you can corner the mouse (a coaching point about allowing shallow passes and then surrounding the man with the ball) and bring him down.
Conversely, of the 5 big plays, you can see 4 of them were against a blitz that did not get to Brees in time. Of course, broken tackles don't help either, but when you rush 3 you have 8 back in coverage. If you bring 5 or 6, that leaves only 5 or 6 back, where a broken tackle can cost you 20 more yards like on the Sproles play late in the 2nd Quarter.
The Cowboys tried everything to try to shake up the Saints. In the first half they brought pressure on 6 of 30 passes (20%), but in the 2nd, they tried to bring more and more - 9 of 22 passes (41%), but it really didn't make much difference. Brees was hardly touched all day.
| Q-Time | D/D/Yd | Play | Rushers |
| 4-11:50 | 3/8/O37 | Brees to Colston, +60 | 5 |
| 2-0:47 | 1/10/O30 | Brees to Sproles, +44 | 4 |
| 5-10:46 | 2/9/D33 | Brees to Colston and Fumble, +31 | 5 |
| 5-13:33 | 1/10/O26 | Brees to Graham, +26 | 5 |
| 2-5:35 | 1/10/O10 | Brees to Colston, +21 | 5 |
| Q-Time | D/D/Yd | Play | Rushers |
Pass Rushers Against New Orleans - 52 pass rush/blitz situations:
| Pass Rushers | 1st D | 2nd D | 3rd D | 4th D | Total |
| 3 Rush | 5 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 4 Rush | 6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 20 |
| 5 Rush | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 Rush | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Totals | 15 | 19 | 17 | 1 | 52 |
And, here are the full season numbers to date:
| Pass Rushers | 1st D | 2nd D | 3rd D | 4th D | Total |
| 3 Rush | 21 - 11% | 29 - 15% | 35 - 22% | 1- 12% | 86 - 16% |
| 4 Rush | 119 - 65% | 111 - 59% | 81 - 53% | 5 - 62% | 316 - 59% |
| 5 Rush | 37 - 20% | 42 - 22% | 29 - 19% | 2 - 25% | 110 - 21% |
| 6 Rush | 5 - 3% | 6 - 3% | 9 - 6% | 0 | 20 - 4% |
| Totals | 182 | 188 | 154 | 8 | 532 |
The game by game pressure numbers:
Wk 1 - NYG: 11/37 - 30%Wk 2 - SEA: 10/26 - 38%
Wk 3 - TB: 12/32 - 37%
Wk 4 - CHI: 12/27 - 44%
Wk 5 - BAL: 10/27 - 37%
Wk 6 - CAR: 9/39 - 23%
Wk 7 - NYG: 2/31 - 6%
Wk 8 - ATL: 5/37 - 14%
Wk 9 - PHI: 7/43 - 16%
Wk 10 - CLE: 4/36 - 11%
Wk 11 - WAS 3/30 - 10%
Wk 12 - PHI 6/36 - 16%
Wk 13 - CIN 11/37 - 30%
Wk 14 - PIT 13/42 - 31%
Wk 15 - NO 15/52 - 29%
Totals: 130/532 - 24.4%
You can clearly see that late in the year, the Cowboys have realized they have no choice but to gamble. They just don't have the personnel to play straight-up defense anymore like they did for a good part of the year. Against better QBs, they have had to take big risks to have a chance. And, to their credit, they have been in a position to win all 3 games since they have changed this approach.
But, now, it comes down to playing a Redskins side that is confident and sure of its objectives on offense.
The Cowboys will need a day where their secondary can hold up its end of the bargain and force big drives. On Thanksgiving, they gave up 2 giants TD strikes from the other end of the field. They cannot do that on Sunday. They must cause a turnover or two and make the Redskins drive the field.
If they do that, they can pull off a very unlikely division title. If not, their season will end like so many others - on the final week, at the stadium of a hated rival that will be taking great delight in your misfortune.
One game for all of the marbles. This is going to be great fun.
Thursday, December 27, 2012
Decoding Garrett - Week 15 - New Orleans
Sunday was a truly bizarre game to analyze for a number of different reasons - not the least of which is that the Cowboys hardly ever got to touch the ball in the first 3 quarters.
The Saints dominated the time of possession and thereby dictated the tempo and the feel of the game. In the first quarter alone, the Cowboys touched the ball for just 2:57, leaving the 12:03 to the Saints. In the 4th Quarter, it was another 11:05 for New Orleans and overall a difference 41:59 to 22:28.
One thing the Cowboys did have cooking was the big play to Dez Bryant. This quick strike kept them in a game in which their defense had to endure an absurd amount of snaps (91) and were surely drained. But, in the 1st half, the Cowboys connected on 2 long Touchdowns of 58 yards each to Dez that allowed them to stay alive. That now means that Tony Romo has hit on 3 passes this season of more than 40 yards and all 3 have been to Bryant (with the other happening on Thanksgiving Day).
The Romo to Bryant connection has become the savior of this offense as so much of the rest of the offense has been a roller coaster ride of inefficiency from week to week. Some weeks, the team cannot rush the ball. Some weeks, they cannot sustain drives. Some weeks, they cannot pass protect. And many weeks, they commit more penalties than they should.
But, from about week 5 on, the Bryant show has been phenomenal. When the season ends, we will have an in-depth study on which routes and coverages he has been most prolific in, but any observer already knows most of that from simply watching the games.
Unfortunately, this game got away partly because the throw and catch of the 3rd Down slant in the overtime with Dez was stopped by the Saints baiting and then knocking down this play. This reminds us of the Baltimore game when Bryant was so great but the inability to execute a better slant late in the game led to the long field goal that Dan Bailey missed back in Game #5 of the season so long ago. As good a day as Romo to Bryant had, if they could have moved the chains one more time in the overtime, chances are good the Saints would have conceded another drive. But, they got their rare stop, and almost like the late stages of a great NBA game, sometimes, all it takes is one stop to win a game.
And the Saints got one stop on an overtime slant to Bryant - caused a punt - and won the game.
Strategically, it was a familiar scene for the Cowboys offense. They have run more shotgun this season than ever before under Jason Garrett and have relied on Shotgun 11-Personnel week in and week out to jump start their offense.
The try and try to run a normal offense and ultimately should be congratulated for not scrapping it altogether. They twist and tweak each week to find the right combination, but then scrap it and find productivity with what amounts to their 2-minute drill. This puts tons of pressure on Tony Romo to find passes when the defense is not defending the run at all, but he has done a masterful job of getting it done again - while most of the NFL doesn't notice.
Here are the numbers:
Data from Week 15 vs New Orleans:
| Run-Pass | 11-45 |
| Starting Field Position | D 21 |
| 1st Down Run-Pass | 8-18 |
| 2nd Down Avg Distance to Go | 8.10 |
| 2nd Down Run-Pass | 3-16 |
| 3rd Down Avg Distance to Go | 7.72 |
| 3rd/4th Down Run-Pass | 0-11 |
| 3rd Down Conversions | 2-10, 20% |
Just about as 1-dimensional as it gets and when they did try to run it, DeMarco Murray fumbled inside his own 10-yard line. Not only all of this, but Romo had to over-come a fair number of drops, too.
PASSING CHARTS:
Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.
Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.
1st Half -
2nd Half - As you can see the volume went way up in the 2nd half and overtime as the Cowboys needed a furious comeback late.
Here is what a 12 target, 9 catch, 224 day looks like for Dez Bryant. He has arrived.
Wk 1-At New York: 9 Drives - 5 Run/4 Pass
Wk 2-At Seattle: 9 Drives - 3 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Tampa Bay: 13 Drives - 7 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Chicago: 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 5-At Baltimore: 10 Drives - 8 Run/2 Pass
Wk 6-At Carolina 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 7-New York: 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 8-At Atlanta: 9 Drives - 4 Run/5 Pass
Wk 9-At Philadelphia: 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 10-Cleveland: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 11-Washington: 12 Drives - 3 Run/9 Pass
Wk 12-Philadelphia: 8 Drives - 5 Run/3 Pass
Wk 13-Cincinnati: 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-Pittsburgh: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Wk 15-New Orleans: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Season: 162 Drives* 72 Run/90 Pass - 44% Run
* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives (there are 6 so far this year).
2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run
SHOTGUN SNAPS-
Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated. High Shotgun numbers are not this team's calling card for success.
As you will see below, they are miles beyond the amount of shotgun snaps of 2011.
Wk 1 - at NYG: 15/54 27.7%
Wk 2 - at Sea: 29/56 52%
Wk 3 - TB: 34/63 54%
Wk 4 - Chi: 50/68 74%
Wk 5 - at Balt: 19/79 24%
Wk 6 - at Car: 22/64 34%
Wk 7 - NYG: 48/83 58%
Wk 8 - at Atl: 29/54 54%
Wk 9 - at Phil: 17/54 31%
Wk 10 - Cle: 52/76 68%
Wk 11 - Wash: 62/75 83%
Wk 12 - Phil: 24/62 38%
Wk 13 - Cin: 43/70 61%
Wk 14 - Pit: 35/63 55%
Wk 15 - NO: 42/56 75%
2012 Season Total: 531/977 54%
2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%
Here is the breakdown by groupings:
Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.
Totals by Personnel Groups:
| Package | Plays Run | Yards | Run | Pass |
| 11 | 1 | 4 | 0-0 | 1-4 |
| 12 | 3 | 29 | 0-0 | 3-29 |
| 13 | 3 | 8 | 2-8 | 1-0 |
| 21 | 5 | 69 | 3-11 | 2-58 |
| 22 | 2 | 8 | 2-8 | 0-0 |
| 23 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| S01 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| S02 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| S11 | 37 | 293 | 4-12 | 33-281 |
| S12 | 5 | 34 | 0-0 | 5-34 |
| Knee | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Totals | 56 | 445 | 11-39 | 45-406 |
Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:
| Package | Plays | Yards | Run | Pass | FD/TD |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 21 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 22 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 23 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| S01 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| S10 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| S11 | 11 | 46 | 0-0 | 11-46 | 2/1 |
| S12 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| Totals | 11 | 46 | 0-0 | 11-46 | 2/1 |
In a nutshell, the Cowboys nearly stole one on Sunday despite being placed in a difficult spot all day by the Saints. New Orleans had a number of offensive matchups the battered Cowboys defense had no answers for (which we will further examine tomorrow).
Somehow, Romo kept them alive until over-time, but then they missed one serve and the Saints made them pay (with a fortuitous bounce on a fumble late).
But, now, redemption is Sunday night. Romo will have a chance to validate his performances this season with his biggest challenge yet in a hostile territory.
And yet, quietly, it seems that he is very much up for this and ready for it with his tight end setting a record and a big-play man wearing 88 on the outside.
The symmetry of huge road divisional wins on NBC primetime to bookend a long season would be a quite fitting way to win a divisional crown, no?
Time will tell us all.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Splash Plays - Week 14 - Pittsburgh
The Cowboys have had a very odd year with regards to their defense. So much so that at times you do just look at the personnel available and concede that to judge these players against a normal grading system is just unfair.
Then, you admit that injuries happen all of the league and there are no sympathy cards arriving in the mailbox. You also see that you are in the middle of a playoff push and you make do with what you have.
Some of the most endearing characteristics of recent Super Bowl Champions is the "next man up" philosophy which basically says that every injury is "just a flesh wound" to the total body of the roster, and therefore, grab a new body and throw him out there.
Of course, we know that this is merely a band-aid and there is a reason that different players get different salaries - because the difference in ability levels between your starter and the free agent off the street that has to replace him in Week 15 is substantial. Or, at least, you hope it is.
Regardless, the Cowboys have done an admirable job of hanging tough. On Monday, I wrote the following about this defense and their uptick in play since being decimated with injuries:
late in the game, when everyone is tired and battered, the Dallas Cowboys have become a team that can find the 4th Quarter sack. Think back to almost any win you would like, and you will almost always see some key moments late in the game that involved the Cowboys pass rush. And sure enough, that can be proven in that the Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL with 4th Quarter sacks with 16.
And from November on, the Cowboys are #1 in the NFL with 10 4th Quarter sacks. You can almost name them all, including clutch moments last night as the Steelers were trying to find a winning score. 3 giant 4th Quarter sacks took down Ben Roethlisberger that started with DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer sharing a sack, then Sean Lissemore popped through to get one, and finally, Anthony Spencer who did it again.
Spencer is quite a story....in 2012, it seems that he doesn't need an advocate any longer. He trails just JJ Watt and Aldon Smith in 4th Quarter sacks this season with 6, and many of them have been absolutely huge.In this space every week, we deconstruct the games and examine for "splash plays". In your 14th game of the year, it seems absurd that there would be 3 different players registering their first real contribution of the season in that metric, but look: Brian Schaefering, Michael Coe, and Eric Frampton all did just that as injuries and erratic play has pushed them on to the roster, and eventually on to the field.
Rob Ryan has taken his fair share of criticism in the last 2 years in Dallas - most of it brought on by his special brand of Ryan-family-bravado that makes him an easy target - so, I think it is only fair if we offer him a little congratulations for making sense of this group when the season is on the line and his defense keeps making game-changing plays late in these must-win December games.
In fact, against the Bengals and Steelers we have seen some very interesting increases in aggressiveness from the defense in terms of blitzing and bringing pressure. This requires faith in your secondary and a risk that perhaps is a result of desperation.
You could make a strong case that this has ambushed these opponents because they see on film a huge chunk of the season where the Cowboys didn't blitz much at all. So, perhaps they lulled their opponents to sleep. But, even when they dial it up more, they are still picking their spots. And below, I want to look at a genius idea from Ryan that perhaps won the game:
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Breakdown of the Lissemore sack:
This is a real interesting moment of the game that in retrospect might have been the equivalent of a defensive "hail mary". If you recall, DeMarcus Ware had just made a huge mistake when he belted Ben Roethlisberger in the back of his head with his right arm after Ben had hit Antonio Brown for 11 yards. This moved the ball quickly near mid-field with over 1:30 to play and the Steelers had all of their timeouts. It is reasonable to assume that if the Cowboys conceded any more real-estate, the Steelers would be squared away to attempt a game-winning field goal.
Now, Ware is off the field on this next snap, adjusting his arm brace with the equipment staff. It is 1st and 10 from the Steelers 46 yard line. Of all of the times to try your biggest blitz of the game, this would not be when your opponent would expect it. No Ware and a 1st Down play. This all tells Pittsburgh that this is a play to go look for more yardage.
But, Rob Ryan sends his 5th blitz of 6 men on 1st Down ALL SEASON. That is in 167 possible situations.
But, with Pittsburgh in 11 personnel, that means you will have man-to-man underneath a single-high safety. Gerald Sensabaugh will start the play at 20-yards depth, but at the snap, he is clearly headed backwards fast to a point where you cannot even see him on the "All-22".
On this first picture, check out Eric Frampton, the 2nd safety, charge to the line across from Heath Miller and that gets the attention of the RB to Roethlisberger's left to pick-up.
Now, check the view from the endzone. Here, if you include Frampton, is a 6-man blitz with 6 blocking.
See that Spencer is back on the inside and this will alert the Steelers since they surely broke down his impact moment in the Bengals game and are on guard when he moves in side. Ryan will use this against them because he is asking Spencer on this play to attract as much attention as possible. He will stunt him inside across the center's face and have Albright cut back around him in a twist.
The key here will be getting 2 to stick with Spencer. This will free up someone in a 6-on-6 scenario so that someone is running free at Roethlisberger. But, it has to be quick.
Now, look what happened. Spencer attracted all 3 interior Steelers.
It could not have worked better. The Cowboys wanted one man to run free and instead the Steelers let 2 men run free. You can see David DeCastro #66 can see what happens in this picture below as he tries to reach out to get Alex Albright, but nobody even touches Sean Lissemore.
Here is what is going on behind the pass rush as there doesn't appear to be anywhere for Ben to go with the ball quickly against this blitz. If he waits, Miller might turn the corner on the wheel route to the left sideline (at the bottom of the screen), but that is a slow-developing route for sure.
He has to wait and when he does, Lissemore gobbles him up, with Albright and Victor Butler all right behind him. Anthony Spencer was such a threat that the RG, C, and LG all keyed on him, and this does what the blitz should do - causes confusion and gets a man to run free.
Hard to believe a play like that can work with #94 on the sideline, but that is also a brilliant time to spring a trap.
The play lost 8 yards and Anthony Spencer then registered his 10th sack of the year on the very next play and the Steelers threat was over.
SPLASH PLAYS
Let's take a look at the "Splash Plays" from Week 14 vs the Steelers:
Splash Plays are key impact plays from the defense. Usually, they are obvious, but there are some that blur the line. I have listed time and play of each one for those who want to double check my work.
For more, read a detailed explanation of this study here: What is a Splash Play?
WEEK 14 vs Pittsburgh
Clearly, this was Brandon Carr's best game of the season from a standpoint of showing up on film.
His aggressive plays all suggested that his history with Todd Haley was quite useful in knowing what to look for and what routes might be coming.
And the play he made in overtime was the type of game-winnnig play at just the right point of the season that justifies his salary.
| Q-Time | D/D/Yd | Player | Play |
| 1-14:15 | 2/4/O26 | Carr | Pass Broken Up |
| 1-13:36 | 1/10/O33 | Carr | Pass Broken Up |
| 1-13:27 | 2/10/O33 | Frampton | Big Hit Pass Break Up |
| 1-13:23 | 3/10/O33 | Butler | Pass Batted Down |
| 1-0:39 | 1/10/O8 | Schaefering | Run Stuff |
| 2-14:11 | 3/5/O13 | Albright | 3rd Down Stop |
| 3-5:57 | 1/10/O40 | Spears | Sack |
| 4-14:56 | 1/10/D36 | Spencer | Big Pressure |
| 4-3:36 | 3/4/D37 | Ware/Spencer | Sack |
| 4-1:47 | 1/10/O20 | Coe | Pass Break Up |
| 4-1:34 | 1/10/O46 | Lissemore | Sack |
| 4-1:12 | 2/18/O38 | Spencer | Sack |
| 5-14:29 | 2/4/O26 | Carr (2) | Interception/Big Return |
Here are the season totals through 14 games:
| Player | Splashes |
| Spencer | 32 |
| Ware | 29 |
| Carter | 15 |
| Hatcher | 14.5 |
| Claiborne | 13 |
| Carr | 12 |
| Lee | 10 |
| Brent | 9.5 |
| VButler | 8 |
| Ratliff | 6 |
| McCray | 6 |
| Scandrick | 5 |
| Crawford | 5 |
| Sensabaugh | 5 |
| Spears | 5 |
| Lissemore | 3 |
| Jenkins | 2 |
| Coleman | 2 |
| Peprah | 2 |
| Conner | 2 |
| Albright | 2 |
| Lewis | 1 |
| Church | 1 |
| Schaefering | 1 |
| Coe | 1 |
| Frampton | 1 |
| Team Total | 192 |
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BLITZING REPORT
The Steelers found big plays with relative ease on Sunday, including a 60 yarder over the top that caused many of us to acknowledge that Danny McCray is a real target since it was very similar to the Thanksgiving bomb. The Cowboys seem to realize that he is being attacked and are trying to limit his exposure in pass situations. You have to stay deeper than the deepest man, but he is too likely to eat he cheese of a play-action fake.
| Q-Time | D/D/Yd | Play | Rushers |
| 3-5:23 | 2/12/O38 | Roethlisberger to Wallace, +60 | 3 |
| 2-0:47 | 2/10/D30 | Roethlisberger to Miller, +30 TD | 3 |
| 4-1:42 | 2/10/O20 | Roethlisberger to Brown, +26 | 4 |
| 3-0:53 | 1/10/O22 | Redman left, +22 | -- |
| 4-14:54 | 2/10/D36 | Roethlisberger to Cotchery, +21 | 5 |
| 4-5:39 | 1/10/O36 | Roethlisberger to Johnson, +21 | 4 |
| 4-0:18 | 1/10/O44 | Roethlisberger to Wallace, +20 | -- |
| Q-Time | D/D/Yd | Play | Rushers |
| 3-5:57 | 1/10/O40 | Spears Sack | 3 |
| 4-3:36 | 3/4/D37 | Spencer/Ware Sack | 5 |
| 4-1:34 | 1/10/O46 | Lissemore Sack | 6 |
| 4-1:12 | 2/18/O38 | Spencer Sack | 5 |
| 5-14:29 | 2/4/O26 | Carr Interception | 4 |
Pass Rushers Against Pittsburgh- 42 pass rush/blitz situations:
| Pass Rushers | 1st D | 2nd D | 3rd D | 4th D | Total |
| 3 Rush | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 Rush | 11 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 25 |
| 5 Rush | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 Rush | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
And, here are the full season numbers to date:
| Pass Rushers | 1st D | 2nd D | 3rd D | 4th D | Total |
| 3 Rush | 16 - 10% | 22 - 13% | 30 - 22% | 1- 14% | 69 |
| 4 Rush | 113 - 68% | 104 - 62% | 75 - 55% | 4 - 57% | 296 |
| 5 Rush | 33 - 20% | 39 - 23% | 24 - 17% | 2 - 28% | 98 |
| 6 Rush | 5 - 3% | 4 - 2% | 8 - 6% | 0 | 17 |
| Totals | 167 | 169 | 137 | 7 | 480 |
The game by game pressure numbers:
Wk 1 - NYG: 11/37 - 30%Wk 2 - SEA: 10/26 - 38%
Wk 3 - TB: 12/32 - 37%
Wk 4 - CHI: 12/27 - 44%
Wk 5 - BAL: 10/27 - 37%
Wk 6 - CAR: 9/39 - 23%
Wk 7 - NYG: 2/31 - 6%
Wk 8 - ATL: 5/37 - 14%
Wk 9 - PHI: 7/43 - 16%
Wk 10 - CLE: 4/36 - 11%
Wk 11 - WAS 3/30 - 10%
Wk 12 - PHI 6/36 - 16%
Wk 13 - CIN 11/37 - 30%
Wk 14 - PIT 13/42 - 31%
Totals: 115/480 - 24%
Once again, how do you judge a defense that is down both defensive tackles, both inside linebackers, a safety, and a corner?
Given the circumstances and given what we saw the Steelers were capable of earlier in the game, it is tough not to congratulate the Cowboys for surviving a great fight where both the winner and the loser was going to take huge shots from the opponent.
But, who would survive at the finish line? The Cowboys did.
Now, here comes the Saints to seek and find your weaknesses. It is a tough job that Ryan has these days.
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