Issues in Oxnard: How Bad Is The Cowboys Defense?

The elephant in the room for the new Dallas Cowboys season remains this defense and the scary showing from 2013 combined with the subtractions from that crew.  It has to have most bracing for the worst.

But, are we being too harsh?  Are the issues being overstated?

Let's examine how we got here and if this is a fair projection or a pessimistic view this morning.

You may recall that last summer, I examined the 2012 team by statistical ranking in the wake of their scheme change.  You may review it by clicking here.  From June of 2013:

They spent the offseason changing the coaching staff and the scheme of the defense and asking much of their 3-4 personnel to now simply switch to the 4-3.  Most NFL experts would argue that this is a very unwise endeavor as players are often identified as one or the other on draft day and yet now the Cowboys are asking their entire Front 7 on the defense - who were all drafted because they were tailor-made for the 3-4 scheme to not only learn but perform at a high level on the 4-3. 

Much of this is also mitigated by the fact that the Cowboys did run a very multiple and versatile front with Rob Ryan in the last few years and that they have very talented players who should work in any scheme, but still, it is not a sure thing this will work when they have 6 of their projected 7 starters as hold overs from the old scheme.  Only newcomer Justin Durant, the projected SAM linebacker in Monte Kiffin's scheme has ever played a snap in a 4-3.  That is a shocking reality of what the Cowboys are about to try to do. 

On the other hand, what you are about to see are the statistics that the Cowboys defense has amassed in 2012 with their old scheme.  Now remember, health had a ton to do with another disappointing effort from the defense - so much so that the firing of Rob Ryan doesn't really seem fair based on 2012 performance - but, make no mistake;  we should not be too bothered with the Cowboys trying a new defensive strategy moving forward. Trouble is, we know from experience that scheme doesn't make the team.  Players do.   

Special ones.  And, honestly, I have significant doubts that the Cowboys can be a special defense based on a scheme that requires a team to get pressure with only the front 4 (The Tampa 2 seldom blitzes) and is based on the cognitive skills of safeties to orchestrate the entire secondary.  But, I will let the coaches sort through those issues in a long camp and see where it goes.

The object of the game is not to prove that I am right and that Jerry Jones might have been guilty of a silly, predictable decision.  Although, at least from a predictable outcome standpoint, the 2013 season went about as poorly as most thought it would outside the Jones family bus.

They changed scheme, but did not upgrade talent at all.  They attempted to fit square pegs into round holes and then had the audacity to blame Monte Kiffin for not being able to take Rob Ryan's personnel and to fit it in his scheme which was very different altogether.

They wished to fix something that was poor - largely due to injuries and lack of depth - without addressing the injuries and lack of depth.  Then, when injuries and lack of depth (and lack of real quality in too many places) caused them to have a 2013 which the evidence below will actually argue was worse, they seemed to blame Monte Kiffin and the tactics.  This, of course, seemed to be what they did in 2012 with Ryan and were unable to come close to improving upon.  I felt sympathetic for Ryan in 2012 who had no Sean Lee or Jay Ratliff for 10 games each, and no Bruce Carter or Orlando Scandrick for 5 games each, no healthy DeMarcus Ware for the first time in his career, and of course the Josh Brent incident with a month to play.  To say that he felt he also had mitigating circumstances would likely be an understatement.

Of course, Ryan had a personality that may not have fallen easily in line with normal proceedings around Valley Ranch and that, if I were to wager, did not help his blame game results quite like Mr Kiffin's long-time relationship with Mr Lacewell and Mr Jones might have helped.

That said, let's view the 2013 season through the lens of "it surely cannot get worse than 2012, right?"

I have chosen 15 major stats for the 2013 defense where the unit ranked 26th or worse.  Basically, these are the categories where the Cowboys were in the bottom 20% (or lower) in the entire NFL.

The first batch will simply be the results of the pass defense:

Statistic	'13 Dallas-Rank	NFL Avg	PO Avg	'12 Dallas
Opp QB Rate	96.0 - 26th	86.0	81.9	94.7 - 29th
Opp QB Rate - Blitz	117.4 - 32nd	85.7	85.4	106.5 - 29th
20 Yd Passes Allowed	71 - 32nd	51	51	52 - 20th
Yards After Catch	2368 - 30th	1943	1890	1926 - 25th
Net Pass Yds/Game	286.8 - 30th	235.6	231.6	203.3 - 19th

As you can see, that is a lot to take in.  I listed 4 measurements for each category: The 2013 Cowboys, the 2013 NFL Average, the 2013 NFL Average for the 12 playoff teams, and the 2012 Cowboys.

As you can see, the Cowboys regressed in all 5 passing categories which include the opposing passer rating, the opposing passer rating when blitzed, big passes (over 20 yards), Yards surrendered after the catch, and finally, net passing yards per game.  Again, in every single category, the Kiffin 4-3, was even worse than the defense they wished to replace.

Side Note: Do you remember the talk after the Chicago game last year?  Jerry went on the radio after the Bears humiliation and basically threw down the public order of more blitzing - even though Monte Kiffin had never made blitzes a large part of his defense and also having a stripped down secondary.  Well, anyone with a Statistical database knows (and the above chart proves) that nobody is worse than the Cowboys at pass defense when blitzing.  It is brutal.  I just am not sure the General Manager is aware of this, given his public demands last season.  In fact, from 2010-2013 (since Wade Phillips was out and Jason Garrett named head coach), no team has been worse against the blitz than the Cowboys and it isn't even close (Jacksonville is a very distant 2nd worst).  Dallas has conceded a QB rating of 107.3 when they blitz over 620 blitzes, including 42 TDs and only 9 INTs and a stunning 8.82 YPA.  You cannot blitz if you have poor safety play.

Next, here are 5 categories around the rushing defense.  Surely, if you are that poor through the air, at least you can stop a run, right?  Oh, boy.

Statistic	'13 Dallas-Rank	NFL Avg	PO Avg	'12 Dallas
Rushes + Completions	52.5 - 29th	48.8	47.5	47.6 - 11th
Run Yards Per Game	128.5 - 27th	112.9	109.2	125.2 - 22nd
10 Yd Runs Allowed	65 - 31st	47	44	53 - 22nd
1st Down Run Avg	4.87 - 27th	4.31	4.25	4.82 - 28th
% of Runs 4+ Yds	47.8% - 29th	42.4%	43.5%	42% - 7th

The 5 categories here are Rushes + Completions which best measures game control from a non-time of possession standpoint (can my defense get off the field?), Rush yards allowed, big runs (10 yards or more), average runs on 1st down allowed, and what percentage of total rushes get at least 4 yards?

Again, brutal.

They went backwards in every single category.  This new scheme which featured an improved tactical plan (according to those in charge) actually fell back into the bottom 5 across the board.  Can you imagine a defense that is 32nd in big passes allowed and 31st in big runs allowed?  The 2013 Dallas Cowboys, ladies and gentlemen.

Finally, here are 5 over-view categories that sum up the defense in key plays in the red zone and 3rd down, and of course, the biggest one - points allowed by the opponent's offense (subtracting any defense or special teams points).

Statistic	'13 Dallas-Rank	NFL Avg	PO Avg	'12 Dallas
Off Pts Allowed	425 - 30th	346	305	359  - 22nd
Yds Per Play RZ	3.38 - 29th	2.89	2.79	3.02 - 23rd
3rd/Short (less 4yds)	77.1% - 32nd	57.2%	56.7%	55.9% - 18th
3rd/Long (more 6yds)	33.9% - 31st	25.6%	22.7%	25.3% - 16th
RZ Scoring Efficiency	64.5% - 31st	55.5%	54.4%	54.5% - 18th

In these 5 categories, the Cowboys showed MAJOR regressions.  They were very, very poor on 3rd and short (32nd) and 3rd and long (31st).  Yikes.  Then, they allowed more yards in the red zone per play than ever before and more touchdowns per possession than any team but the Houston Texans.

They weren't bad in every category - they were tied for 13th in takeaways, for instance.  They were 3rd in fumble recoveries.  But, the positives are very few and far between.  And too few to balance the issues.

So, as we sit on the verge of the 2014 season and hear the similar refrain about "they can't possibly be worse than they were last season", I am reminded that after last year when Rob Ryan was blamed and the team did not replenish the talent very well, we might have been barking up the wrong tree.

Monte Kiffin has been stripped of his duties and Rod Marinelli is the next man up.  He has to figure this out without DeMarcus Ware (Salary cap), Jason Hatcher (Free Agency/Salary Cap), Sean Lee (ACL), DeMarcus Lawrence (broken foot until November), and Orlando Scandrick (suspension until October).  Add to that the questionable status of Morris Claiborne (shoulder), Anthony Spencer (knee), and Henry Melton (groin, knee) and we are looking at a defense which is being discussed as the worst in the league without too many prospects of major improvements on the depth chart.

I have said a few times on the radio that this 2014 is as poorly as I have felt in over a decade about a Cowboys season.  If you want my reasons as to why (beyond the dicey health of the franchise QB), it would be found primarily on this page.  

The defense looks absolutely like a major disaster waiting to happen.  There is always a feeling of fresh hope and Rolando McClain could supply some of that, along with upticks from youngsters like JJ Wilcox, Kyle Wilber, and Tyrone Crawford.

But, I am not sure most people realize how far they must travel to get to even mediocre.  

The Morning After The Morning After: Chicago 45, Dallas 28 (7-6)

Due to circumstances beyond my control that include ice in Dallas, cancelled flights in Guatemala City, customs in Miami, and the DVR not responding to my pleas, my normal "Morning After" column for Bears 45, Cowboys 28 does not exist.  I then had to choose whether to write it today as if it was yesterday, skip it altogether, or write what I have chosen to write this morning.  Next week, we will return to our normal routines and writing schedule.  

The defense betrayed the Cowboys on Monday night in Chicago at levels that on one hand seem historic for their absurdities, and on the other hand resemble exactly the level of sub-standard play that we saw in New Orleans, Detroit, and of course, against Denver.  

If we consider 360 yards to be a normal day and 400 yards to be a great day, then 475 is off the charts, right?  Well, with the Bears going for 490, this is the 6th time in 2013 that the team has allowed at least 475, or just as many times as the franchise had allowed 475+ from 2006-2012 combined.  

Now, we can go on and on about how Monte Kiffin has allowed the sport to pass him by (which is the easy narrative for those coaches with too much gray, but often times is unfair), or we can go on and on about the injuries that have made this defense implode yet again.  Instead, I choose to look at the bigger picture which has been written about year after year in this space.  

Here is what I wrote back in 2011 after the season collapsed in New York: 

This team fails in December for one primary and simple reason: The roster doesn't contain the quality personnel that is required to sustain the assaults of a 16-game campaign in the NFL. 

Think about it: When does the team fail? December. In a 4-month season, which month would best reveal your depth and quality down the roster that can compensate for fatigue and injuries? December. The truth is that the Cowboys have enough talent on the top of their roster to compete with some of the best teams in the league. Romo, Ware, Witten, Austin, Ratliff are a very solid "Top 5". Bryant, Lee, Murray, Smith, and Jenkins are a reasonable 6-10 on a roster. But, then the drop-off begins on the roster. And if the season was just 8-10 games long, they would likely be able to hang in there. Any Cowboys historian will confirm that the team certainly gets to Thanksgiving in great shape nearly every season. So, what changes? Is it really that turning the calendar to the month of December is what makes a magical spell fall over Romo and the team where they can no longer compete? 

Good teams in the NFL have quality from 1-10, but also from 11-53, too. When fatigue strikes Jay Ratliff, they have a player behind him who can bridge the gap. If Ware is being double-teamed, someone else can rise up. When the line is under siege, a solid veteran can do a reasonable job and protect his QB. The good teams have enough quality on their roster that they can construct a solid team effort for the regular season. Sure, they count on their stars to perform, but beyond that, there are starters and reserves that never find a magazine cover that do their job admirably. 

And then I spent a paragraph 2 years ago on the defense.  Just take out Rob Ryan's name and put in Monte Kiffin's if you want to enjoy the irony of this all:

And, then there is the defense. A change of coordinators and schemes disguised the truth for a period of time. But in the end, we see the truth again: The personnel on the defense has some top-side talent (Ware, Ratliff, and Lee) but not enough to compensate for a unit that has weaknesses in many other spots. Putting tape on a shot-gun wound will cause many to blame Rob Ryan, but I would love to see what coordinator could make sense of what he was given. No offseason. No upgrades. No help from the draft. No expenditures. Just take the worst defense in franchise history and fix it with your magical formula. Good luck, Rob. 

Yes, that is right.  2010 was the worst defense in franchise history.  Then, in 2011, the defense and offensive lines were exposed late due to the players who were left because of the "injury epidemic" that hit.

Here is a passage from what I spent time on after the 2012 season.  The theme is to fortify your defense so that you are not relying on "street free agents" late in the year ever again:

Remember that in 2012, the Dallas Cowboys signed an exceedingly troubling number of street free agents and inserted many of them directly into their lineup.  Charlie Peprah, Ernie Sims, Vince Agnew, Sterling Moore, and Brady Poppinga were all players who were completely unemployed in pro football who were all signed and put on the field by the Cowboys because of their lack of depth.  All teams have injuries, but when you are putting street free agents into your lineup, that speaks loudly that you have not fortified your roster with capable backups who are ready for an opportunity.  The object of the offseason is to find players who can be proper backups and play when called upon.  Then, you have practice squad call-ups replace injured players, not veterans who are out of work being pulled in during November.  It is both cost-effective and football smart, to only draw from your own organization for your needs that arise.  Then, you don't have to cram a playbook into their head and teach them your system.  You also don't have to pay veteran minimums and bypass your own talent. 

Feel free to insert the names of Nick Hayden, George Selvie, Everette Brown, Corvey Irvin, and Jarius Wynn if you would like up there on the list of this year's street free agents.  Everette Brown was actually opening up a yogurt store when the Cowboys called.  I admire the business plan, but this speaks to the real issues of organizational depth.

Wait a minute.  I thought this year had a historic number of injuries.  But, after 2010, 2011, and 2012, we wrote the same things about the coordinator, the injuries, and the street free agents?

Actually, if you consider the absurdity of Jerry Jones telling us all in April about how his defensive line is a position of strength, then you see how the miscalculations of the season are just more of the same.

Jones said, “In no way do I think [Jay] Ratliff has injury issues. He did last year but that was pretty unique. I think [DeMarcus] Ware’s an exception. Spencer and these guys are young 30-year-olds. Don’t get me wrong, I’m interested in long term but I’m real interested in what’s happening in the next 24-36 months. That’s really what you ought to be looking at.”

“We feel like defensive line is a position of strength for us”

That quote is from the April 26 edition of the Dallas Morning News and in about 15 seconds he said that Jay Ratliff has no injury issues, and that the defensive line is a position of strength.  Then, to prove it wasn't rhetoric, they used exactly 0 picks on strengthening a defensive line that we all knew was a position of considerable weakness given their poor play in 2012 and the fact that the entire new scheme was predicated on getting consistent pass rushes from your front 4.  If you do not get consistent pass rushes with your front 4, then even Kiffin will tell you that his scheme does not fit well.

This is all why I have a hard time forgetting the past when looking at the present.  It is dangerous in my business to assume that because things are always a certain way, then that must mean that things will never change.  I have said here a number of times that I do believe the Cowboys are in a much better space personnel-wise than they were a few seasons back.  I thought the combination of Jerry Jones and Wade Phillips set this franchise back a long, long ways.  The new combination of Jerry Jones and Jason Garrett is better, and in some ways much better.  But, that doesn't mean that things are fixed or that things are going to get fixed.

It simply means that to turn all of our angst to Monte Kiffin is to forget about 2010, 2011, and 2012 and to fall for the shell game of Cowboys football.  Each year, they promise to serve you up a new victim to get mad at and therefore we can continue to address the symptoms but never the disease.

Kiffin this year.  Rob Ryan last year.  Rob Ryan's scheme the year before.  But never the actual issues which continue to be paying for wasteful drafts, horrible "all your eggs in 1 basket" trade ideas (I am looking at you, Roy Williams, and you, Morris Claiborne) and salary cap mismanagement that leaves this team with a 1-deep depth chart and roster when the powers in the league seem to have a 2-deep.

Then, we can get mad again at Jason Garrett and Tony Romo and Monte Kiffin and Jeff Heath for why this team is where it is - which is getting humiliated on national TV again.

I was planning on writing today about how the offense is getting off too easily in this particular chapter of Cowboys football.  For yet another year, the offense has enjoyed decent health and with the depth they received from nearly monopolizing the entire 2013 draft, they have had more than enough weapons to not have convenient excuses ready.  And that is why I must tell you that I don't share many's opinion about the offense not needing to absorb some blame for their role in this.

I promise I have talked to too many Cowboys fans who have told me "we scored 28 in Chicago, that should be good enough to win a game!"

Please.  The offense scored 28 on technicalities which include 14 meaningless points in the 4th Quarter where both teams just wanted to get out of town.  They were down 42-14 and while the defense was doing no favors, the offense had 7 drives in the first 3 Quarters (when the game was actually a game) and only 2 of them went anywhere and possessed the ball for more than 2:03.  So, if your defense can't get a stop and can't catch their breath, the worst thing the offense can possibly do is throw 3 straight incompletions and send the tired and thin defense right back on the field.  29 minutes of possession for Chicago and 16 minutes for the Cowboys demonstrates that the offense is doing the defense no favors whatsoever.

And, then, in a fantasy football world where Tony Romo threw for 3 Touchdowns and a passer rating of 109, it is easy to think he played well enough to win.  But, I would heartily disagree with those sentiments as well.  He passed for 95 yards before the Cowboys were down 42-14 and could not afford to miss on throws in a few key spots including a crucial miss to Dez Bryant on a 3rd Down where points can cut the lead to 27-21 late in the 3rd Quarter.

Remember those yardage totals up at the top of the page?  400 is a great day, 360 is about average, and anything less than 325 is a failure?  The Cowboys' offense has 1 day of 400 yards this season (Denver) and 3 games of 360 (Denver, Rams, and at Eagles).  Dallas amassed 328 yards of offense in Chicago after Kyle Orton tacked on 75 yards to what was barely 250 with 4 minutes to go, and the other sub 325 yard games?  At Kansas City, At San Diego, at New York, at Detroit, Washington and At New Orleans.  Sense a trend here?

This team is built with smoke and mirrors on large parts of their defense, and huge money at QB, WR, and TE, with many premium picks all around.  They were supposed to be led by their offense with opportunistic defensive turnover moments that puts them in a position to win.

And yet, they put 2 drives out of 6 (the 7th was a knee at halftime) on the board and barely 250 yards against a poor and battered Chicago defense and people want to say the offense is blameless?  Let's be serious.

To whom much is given, much is to be expected, and the Cowboys offense has been given everything and their production has been unacceptable and that needs to change post haste.  The good news is they are much better at home.  And they can play 3 of their next 4 in Arlington if they keep winning.  The bad news is that eventually, they are going to have to go on the road again and it will be cold and windy and the offense looks hopeless in those situations, but let us all be so lucky as to have to worry about a January trip to Seattle.

This column feels like an obituary, but the news is still good.  The Cowboys are at 7-6 and I still feel like 9-7 wins the division.  I think they will win the NFC East by just winning their final 2 home games and that would have to be considered a successful year from just about any angle.  Get in the playoffs and give yourself a home game and a chance.

But, for this franchise to move forward, they are going to have to stop kidding themselves and address a roster that still lacks for real depth and sustainability as games 11-16 reveal your true ability to survive attrition.

And that requires leadership at the top of the organization to stop playing shell games and start being honest with the man in the mirror or we can do this same nonsensical exercise in 2014.

I know which of those two scenarios seems more likely to me.

Xs And Os: A Moment of Rob Ryan Brilliance

I think we are all ready to put the New Orleans game in our collective rear-view mirrors, but let's cover a few things from the game that I felt were noteworthy by a Xs and Os standpoints.  Both are from the mind of Rob Ryan and both seemed successful on Sunday.  I am quite sure that Ryan had a full bag of tricks waiting to be sprung on the Cowboys, and I am guessing he didn't get to use most of them because the score was out of hand.  Pity.  

The first idea that we should examine is the cover photo of the magazine that is getting everyone agitated around these parts, the "Why Isn't Dez Getting the Ball?" weekly.  

There isn't a ton to discuss about the details of the play, because it was on the play by play sheet as a simple incomplete pass to Terrance Williams, but as you can see, this was Rob Ryan seeing what the Cowboys tendencies when they get inside the 10 yard line of the opponent and simply taking it away.

The Cowboys love to run the back shoulder fade to Dez and the counter move is simply a regular fade with a jump ball scenario.  It is impossible to cover both with one man, so, Ryan had a laugh here and treated Dez on this 1st and Goal as if he was the gunner on a punt team.  We are not even going to let him get off the line.

I don't understand why more teams don't do this - and maybe they are starting to do this more often league wide since QBs and WRs have gotten so proficient at this move.  It basically takes Dez out of the play and then - although the defense is now out-numbered everywhere else on the field - it forces Romo and the Cowboys to prove that they have a counter move, which seems debatable even though they had their man to man look out right to Williams.  Why that route Williams is running did not convert to a slant or a dig or something easier and more aggressive with no safety over the top is a mystery to me, but clearly the Cowboys let a real opportunity get by here.

If a team is going to pull this nonsense, you either make them pay or you face it again next week.  I assume that will be an objective in the bye week to figure out a proper counter move to this defensive plan.



I was asked this week if I had ever seen anything like that before, and the only thing that came to mind was the safety alignment that Jim Haslett threw at the Cowboys last Thanksgiving on a few occasional
opportunities to mess with Romo and company.

As you can see above, it isn't the same look, but rather a safety immediately over the top of Bryant so that the corner can press right in his face with no real concerns about getting beat vertically because the safety is right there.  These are rather exotic looks that you don't want to show too often, because your coverage elsewhere is unsound, but if you are Rob Ryan and Jim Haslett, you don't mind rolling the dice once in a while to mess with Romo.  

The point is that sometimes the "just throw it to Dez" offense is not a solution, in fact, it is an idiotic suggestion in these particular cases.  The defense is going to extremes to take Dez away.  Like I said, they don't do it often, but they respect him so much that they are not going to lose to him.  Therefore, the idea is not to force the ball directly to him, but rather to figure out how to use your numbers advantage properly elsewhere.

And, of course, the practical application might be to ask why the Cowboys defense didn't consider this idea when Megatron was lighting them up for 329.  It seems if there was ever a time to roll out a silly coverage plan like this, October 27th was the time.

=====

This, right here, is one of my favorite things I have seen this season.

And, in a game that was already a blowout loss, this if it happened 5 times would have been a pick-6 at least twice.  It, in my estimation, is what film study and preparation are all about.

So, we asked last week who has the technical advantage when Rob Ryan faces the Cowboys offense.  Do they know him or does he know them?  Well, I said before the game that this is easy, because we never saw Rob Ryan's true defense once Jerry freaked out and wanted him to strip down the "complications" that he became convinced were holding his team back.  By the way, it is this type of feedback he gets from the voices he trusts that assure him it isn't the players who he acquired who are holding the team back, but rather the coaches decisions, that keep this team in the mediocre state that they hover in presently.

Regardless, Rob Ryan had been at 32 consecutive Cowboys games during his tenure and knows what Romo/Garrett/Friends do not like dealing with.  And he also knows tendencies and habits and preyed on one here with a stroke of genius.

It is 3rd and 5, and the Cowboys have been using plenty of these situations to go at the Dez/Beasley side, but now want to use that to come back to the left and find an open Witten.  We have seen this a million times, and against 2-deep safeties it is too easy as the Saints are clearly in 2 Deep/Man-under or "2-Man" for short.

But, the coverage is not what it seems to Romo and to anyone who looks at this, because Ryan has planted a huge trap because he knows what the Cowboys are doing.  In fact, he even puts more bait in the trap by having a corner who is covering Witten (31-Carr) play with extreme inside leverage, asking Witten to break to the sidelines for the most basic read of an option route and what surely is an easy pitch and catch 3rd Down conversion, right?

Romo looks to the right to give Witten a chance to get open, and Witten certainly loves 31 playing so inside.  This will be an easy conversion, surely.  But, here comes the ambush.  Jabari Greer is lined up over Terrance Williams, but he is not covering the WR.  Instead, he is about to pounce on the throw that is 100% safe against man coverage because Williams would take his man deep.  Unless that man isn't really covering him and is instead waiting on this Romo/Witten tendency and is going to get to the ball before Witten can.

Now, because Romo has identified "2-Man", he can just pivot and throw as he sees Witten's man in a trail position and unable to get to this ball.  But, to those of us who can see the whole field, we see that Rob Ryan has done something that you seldom see.  He has nobody covering Williams out wide - except for an extremely deep safety who will try to get there if Romo can see the blur before the ball is gone.  But, he doesn't and Greer is right on top of the throw.

Look at how close this is to a pick-6.  Greer has his full body in front of the ball as it arrives.  I imagine the entire Saints defensive staff was screaming at this play being so close to exactly how they hoped it would go.  You do all of your film study and planning and most times, these situations never present themselves.  But, for the Saints and Ryan, they did their work, put the cheese in the trap, and although they forced another punt, they likely know how close they were to the big knockout by trying a coverage that Romo won't see for months.

The video below shows how he doesn't have the time or ability to see Williams or his man.  The throw has to be on time and it starts with looking off the coverage by selling a play to his right and then trusting the play to his left by letting the throw go to a place that should work.

But, sometimes, your experience betrays you.  And anyone on either side knew that Rob Ryan had pulled a fast one here.

Pretty brilliant idea and concept that nearly worked for the former Cowboys Defensive Coordinator.  I will tell you that we never saw his crazy ideas and unsound concepts here because they were labeled "too complex" and "too difficult" here.  I think that means his personnel was not capable of pulling it off here, but obviously, these are the risky plans that have made the Ryan family so good at what they do over the years.  If you have no plans to let them take risks, then you have no reason to employ them.

It appears the Saints are willing to live with the high risk/high reward concepts that come with the long-haired, loud-mouthed Ryan.

One team's trash is another team's treasure.

Cowboys by the Numbers: Defense

As we continue to examine 2012 as a primer for what needs to be accomplished heading into training camp of 2013 and beyond, we should follow up our breakdown of the offensive numbers with a thorough checkup of the statistics that the defense was responsible for.

Clearly, this is less relevant when you consider the wholesale adjustments to the defense moving forward.  They spent the offseason changing the coaching staff and the scheme of the defense and asking much of their 3-4 personnel to now simply switch to the 4-3.  Most NFL experts would argue that this is a very unwise endeavor as players are often identified as one or the other on draft day and yet now the Cowboys are asking their entire Front 7 on the defense - who were all drafted because they were tailor-made for the 3-4 scheme to not only learn but perform at a high level on the 4-3.

Much of this is also mitigated by the fact that the Cowboys did run a very multiple and versatile front with Rob Ryan in the last few years and that they have very talented players who should work in any scheme, but still, it is not a sure thing this will work when they have 6 of their projected 7 starters as hold overs from the old scheme.  Only newcomer Justin Durant, the projected SAM linebacker in Monte Kiffin's scheme has every played a snap in a 4-3.  That is a shocking reality of what the Cowboys are about to try to do.

On the other hand, what you are about to see are the statistics that the Cowboys defense has amassed in 2012 with their old scheme.  Now remember, health had a ton to do with another disappointing effort from the defense - so much so that the firing of Rob Ryan doesn't really seem fair based on 2012 performance - but, make no mistake;  we should not be too bothered with the Cowboys trying a new defensive strategy moving forward.

Trouble is, we know from experience that scheme doesn't make the team.  Players do.  Special ones.  And, honestly, I have significant doubts that the Cowboys can be a special defense based on a scheme that requires a team to get pressure with only the front 4 (The Tampa 2 seldom blitzes) and is based on the cognitive skills of safeties to orchestrate the entire secondary.  But, I will let the coaches sort through those issues in a long camp and see where it goes.

In the meantime, let's try our best to sort through those 2012 numbers.  When we did the offense, we found 5 great stats, 5 good stats, and 5 poor stats to analyze.  Unfortunately, finding 5 great stats from the 2012 defense will not be easy, so I am forced to relabel the categories.

Here we go:

5 Good to Great Stats from the Cowboys Defense in 2012

Opponents Quick Strike Drives:  Rated 9th in NFL with 28 drives of 4 plays or less.  NFL Average was 41 drives and Playoff Teams averaged 31 drives where points were scored in 4 plays or fewer.

3rd Down and Long 10 yards+ Conversions: 4th best in NFL with 15.9%.  NFL Average = 20.6%, Playoff Average = 21%

Opponents rushing for 4+ yards:  42% was 7th in NFL.  NFL Average = 43.5%, Playoff Average = 43.9%

Opponents rushes for 50 yards:  Allowed 0 plays ranked 1st.  NFL Average = 1, Playoff Average = 1

Opponents Drives Starting inside the 20:  5th in NFL, 56.  NFL = 48, Playoffs = 48


As you can see, I am really scraping the bottom of our barrel to find 5 stats where the Cowboys rank in the Top 10 in the league.  And let's be honest - none of them really seem to be a major category of excellence.  Rather, they are subcomponents of larger categories.  It is certainly good news that the Cowboys did not give up huge plays very often, but they did give up tons of other things - long drives and big time of possession ground and pounds.

You do have to like that they made teams work hard for rushing yards and did not allow 4 yards a lot relative to the league.  Also, it should be pointed out that the 5th stat I found - opponents' drives starting deep in their own territory is actually a stat that is reflective of strong special teams work - not defensive excellence.

Overall, as you can see, there just wasn't much at all that this defense was really good at.  So, we arrive back at the question of what is the argument for keeping the scheme and the coaching staff the same?


5 League Average Stats from the Cowboys Defense in 2012

Opponents Net Passing Yards Per Game:  230, 19th in NFL.  NFL Average = 231, Playoff Teams Average = 230

Opponents Red Zone Scoring:  54.5 TD%, 18th in the NFL.  NFL Average = 54.1, Playoff Teams = 53.1

Explosive Plays (Plays of 20 yards or more): 67, 22nd in NFL.  NFL = 60, Playoffs = 60

Opponents First Downs:  317, 16th in the NFL.  NFL Average = 318, Playoff Teams = 312

Opponents Time of Possession:  29:27 for 13th in NFL.  NFL Average = 30:00, Playoff Teams 29:23

Here we see that the squad did some things in line with the pack in the NFL.  They weren't killed with yardage through the air and did a reasonable enough job with the clock and limiting the first downs.  However, 67 explosive plays is at the low end of average and there just wasn't enough meat here to help when it mattered most.  They found themselves behind quite a bit early in games and that actually might lead to some misleading numbers through the air as well.  As you will see below, when QB's wanted to move the ball against the Cowboys, they didn't struggle to do so.


5 Very Poor Stats from the Cowboys Defense in 2012

Opponents Negative Plays (in yards):  Cowboys -295, 30th best in NFL.  NFL Average = -370, Playoff Teams -385

Takeaways:  16, which ranked 28th.  NFL Average = 25, Playoffs = 27

Opponents Passer Rating:  94.7, ranked 29th.  NFL Average = 85.6, Playoff Teams Average = 81.8

10 Play Drives Allowed:  32, 28th.  NFL Average = 27, Playoff teams = 28

Opponents Passer Rating vs Blitz:  106.1, 29th.  NFL Average = 83.4, Playoff Teams = 77.8


Holy Cow.

Look at those opponent's passer rating numbers. So, first, just look at all passes.  We have always talked about how 80 is the NFL average and 90+ is an elite QB.  As you can see, the Cowboys defense made their entire schedule to be elite QBs.

Then, with the blitz, they actually got even worse.  They somehow conceded a 106.1 QB rating when they brought pressure.  They also did not turn the ball over (again) and had fewer tackles for loss and sacks than almost anyone in the league.  This is particularly depressing given the monster investment in the cornerback position last offseason.

They just didn't make any plays on defense.  They didn't take the ball away, nor did they make the opponent lose yardage and set up longer plays.

They just didn't do much defensively that you can sink your teeth into.

Moving forward, we look to better health, a new scheme, and better safety play (gulp) to improve upon things.  But, looking at these numbers, you can see the reason some were scratching their heads when the Cowboys did nothing to address the defense of note in the early part of the draft or free agency.  These numbers are the argument for Shariff Floyd or players like that could have added a playmaker to the front 4.

But, they elected to look elsewhere and we will see if they end up regretting that.

Rob Ryan Exits Stage Left

Yogi Berra supposedly once told us, "it's tough to make predictions; especially about the future."

So, I take solace in that modern-day philosopher when I attempt to predict what is going to happen next in the Jerry Jones empire of football.  There is no predicting what he will do, and when he starts making moves, conventional thinking or consensus should likely just be ignored.  There is no point in playing this game.

Yet, last week, I was ready to try to interpret the "uncomfortable change" that was around the corner according to an irate Jones a few days after the failure in Washington.

I was pretty sure it would be a new play-caller on offense.  But, a change in the coach running the defense?  Here is what I wrote about it (please note that I felt the conversation barely needed to happen given that a long-winded guy only used one paragraph for the entire discussion):

I also don't think I would campaign for a dismissal of Rob Ryan.  I believe in what he likes to do and although nobody wants to hear this, I still don't think we have much of an idea of what he would like to do with this crew.  In 2011, he had a very poor personnel situation at corner and in 2012, he enjoyed about a month of Sean Lee and Bruce Carter together with a legit pair of corners.  They need health and a better defensive line group, but this defense is not far away if you ask me.

So, that was that.  Done and dusted.

Until yesterday when Ryan was fired.  That makes Skip Peete, the Running Backs coach since 2007, on Monday and Rob Ryan, the defensive coordinator since 2011, on Tuesday.

We can only imagine what Wednesday brings us.

And to some, there is the response of "Good.  It is about time Jerry makes some sweeping changes around there."  To which I say that changing out a RBs coach would change nearly nothing about the offense that doesn't care to run anyway, and changing out Rob Ryan is simply moving someone out who had no Cowboys-equity to begin with - and was only hired begrudgingly 2 seasons ago after the worst defensive season in Cowboys history.

That is not changing anything about the systematic ills that continue to plague this proud organization.

What it sounds like to me, for different reasons, is that the Cowboys likely let two guys go who did not necessarily do anything fireable in a sense of coaching strategy.  Rather, to either freshen things up or to change philosophically, the two men were fired so that we could "go in a different direction".

Seriously, if anyone was hit harder than Rob Ryan from an injury standpoint (Lee, Carter, Ratliff, Coleman, Church), it might be the guy in charge of running backs (DeMarco Murray missed a huge chunk of the year).  To fire them under the pretense of under-performance is flat-out silly.

So, is there issues with factions in the coaching staff?  Well, let me say that this is my biggest hot-button issue with Jerry Jones (once we accept that he has given himself a life-time term as the team's general manager), the idea that a head coach has somewhere between little and nothing to do with who is on his staff.

You have to understand how difficult this makes this job.  A head coach, no matter who he is, needs and must receive unconditional loyalty from his coaching staff.  When that doesn't happen - when a coach undercuts him to the players or to other assistants or even the public - we have major issues.  We have a powerless head coach which is 100% the opposite way of how the legendary successful coaches have always operated.  This is why their staff is made up of people they generally know or trust and one reason why coaching is thought of internally as an honorable occupation with a strict code of ethics that you are loyal to the man who gave you the opportunity.

And this is why the Cowboys have it all wrong.

You don't hire Jason Garrett to be your offensive coordinator when you have not hired a head coach yet.  And that is what Jones did in 2007.  You don't hire a head coach and tell him who is assistants are.  And that is something Jones has done with nearly every coach since Jimmy left with the exception of Bill Parcells - who assumed many coaches, but at least had a little say in that matter.

And, if you are Jason Garrett, and you are being made head coach, you cannot take assistants from the last regime unless you believe you have their 100% loyalty.  And sometimes that is difficult.  Sometimes, they don't have loyalty to you because they were an equal with you years ago, and think that perhaps they deserve to have your job - but perhaps they weren't the owner's pet.  Regardless, if you name your own staff, you aren't naming guys who you aren't sure would "buy in" to what you are selling to your players, which should be an unconditional commitment to the same goal.

And if you don't have that unconditional commitment to make the Jason Garrett-led Cowboys Super Bowl champions, then you shouldn't be on his staff.  Said another way, if you think you are a better candidate to be your team's coach than the coach himself, you have to know how to keep that to yourself or there will always be fractures in the organization and most obviously in the locker-room.

That is why 2008 was such a disaster.  Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, and the wide receivers are having "keeping it real Thursdays" with their position coach Ray Sherman.  Inside these meetings, there reportedly are unflattering things being said about the offensive coordinator, the quarterback, and the tight end - who all happen to be too friendly according to Owens and company.  This friendliness, in their minds, is leading to decisions made on the football field that rewards friends with footballs.  And before long, we have half of the offense accusing the other half of a friendship organization and it leads to lack of unity and continuity.  All the while, the head coach, Wade Phillips, was presiding over the circus by acting like it wasn't happening.

And if that controversy in 2008 didn't teach Jerry that a staff must all have each-other's backs - and therefore a head coach better be able to name his entire staff with guys he trusts and that will respect and fear him, then nothing will.

And guess what.  Nothing will.

This is not meant to be a love-letter to the Jason Garrett-led Cowboys.  I am certainly not a full believer in his regime (can you have a regime if you don't have the power to name your own coaching staff?), although I believe he has some characteristics that intrigue me.  But, rather, on this day where we think 2 coaches just got fired for issues that cannot be based on their 2012 on-field performance - they had no chance of success with the injury cards they were dealt - I continue to wonder if this is an effort to get the coaching staff all on the same Garrett-led page.

What else could it be?

Some will say that the Cowboys just wanted to move to the 4-3.  And maybe that is all it is.  But, if you read this column, you know that I have been saying they have been running a modified 4-3 for Ryan's entire run here.  At least half of the game every week is either in an actual 4-3 (nickel defense on 3rd Downs and other passing scenarios) or a modified 3-4 where Ware rushes 88% of the time getting him defined as a DE in a 4-3 defense and the front 3 is just a DE and 2 DTs.

That is why I am somewhat amused by the universal freak-out about their personnel in a supposed change to the 4-3.  Ware and Anthony Spencer are your defensive ends - just like they were at Troy and Purdue.  Jason Hatcher and Jay Ratliff would be your ideal defensive tackles - although, who knows about Ratliff anymore.  Tyrone Crawford and Sean Lissemore could play either in a depth rotation, and you were going to focus on DL in the draft anyway.

Linebackers are easy given your talent base already.  Sean Lee is your middle linebacker (Mic), and Bruce Carter would look to be a fantastic weak side LB (Will).  The strong side linebacker (Sam) may not be on your roster or it could be Alex Albright.  But, as you can see, you have strong personnel that could be made stronger with upgrades, of course, but is not in dire straits as it is.

I say it has to be that the long-haired member of the most abrasive family in football likely showed his abrasive side at one point or another in this incredibly high-stress 2012 season.  And when he does, he appears to have a tongue that might not always regulate itself well.  Was it his personality that got him fired?  I have no idea, but since people want a guess, that is where I am looking.  Otherwise, you cannot ask a guy to coach half the year with street free agents comprising his defense and then fire him when things don't work out.  This simply has to be bigger than that.

And given that I think Ryan has been running what amounts to a 4-3 anyway, the idea that he couldn't help usher in the new scheme is a bit far-fetched, too.

With Peete, I have spent less time thinking about it, other than to say that A) he goes back to 2007 with Garrett and fresh looks at this offense should not be discounted and B) there are a lot of fractured relationships from anyone around in 2008 when everything went wrong.  If people want to make this an argument of which guy should go, a RB's coach or a head coach, then you need your head examined.  If he is your head coach, then you allow him to change out whatever he wishes on his staff to tinker with what is clearly broken.  I am sure Peete will be fine and working again whenever he wants, but I don't have the slightest issue with changes being made to the staff.

And that is why I wonder if more changes are coming.  The play-calling position still seems up for grabs - Norv is still a wildcard as are several other interesting names.  And we haven't even discussed the personnel department that has had about as much stability over the last 15 years as any football front-office in the league.  I know the GM and his family are safe, but there are many sets of eyeballs with scouts and personnel types in the organization that have been there a long-time.  I imagine Jerry realizes his last few drafts have been some of his best, but if he wants discomfort in that building, who knows what he has planned?

This team is never short of story-lines, and maybe this is the year that Jason Garrett gets full control of his coaching staff.

But, I highly doubt it.

If there is one change we can bet against, it is the idea that Jerry will ever truly change his ways.  You can't predict much about the man, except for the idea that he will still be doing things his way for many years to come and there is nothing you can do about it.

So what changes will truly matter if the biggest change doesn't happen?  Well, that is tough to predict.  But, the outcomes might not be as difficult to forecast.

Eli Owns Dallas

December 14, 2008 was the last win at Texas Stadium for the Dallas Cowboys franchise. The game was played against Eli Manning and the New York Giants. In that month, December 2008, almost nothing went right for the Cowboys. But, one thing that did was this Sunday Night affair against their bitter rivals.

In that game, the Cowboys battered, bruised, and flat-out beat up Manning to the tune of 8 sacks. DeMarcus Ware had 3. Greg Ellis had 2.5. Bradie James and Chris Canty each had 1, and 2nd year LB Anthony Spencer even picked up one half of a sack. The Cowboys won that game 20-8, over the then Super Bowl Champion Giants, and felt that they had cracked the code on how to beat the younger Manning brother: Beat him up. But, since we have mentioned Texas Stadium and Greg Ellis in the opening 2 paragraphs of this story, it has been a while since that night.

Since then, the two teams have squared off 6 times. Manning has won 5 of them, losing to Cowboys' back-up QB Jon Kitna in Jason Garrett's 1st game as head coach in 2010.

And since that night, the New York Giants have run 230 pass plays against the Cowboys 3-4 defense. And in those 230 passes over the span of 3 seasons and 6 games, the Cowboys have sacked Manning 4 times or once every 57.5 pass plays (as a comparison, the Cowboys averaged a sack every 14 pass attempts against the league last year). And to make it much, much worse, over those 230 pass plays, DeMarcus Ware has 3.5 of the 4 sacks. That's right. The rest of the Cowboys defense, with 230 chances at getting to the QB, only Jason Hatcher has tallied even half of a sack. Pitiful may not properly sum up this reality.

So, the pressure does not get to the QB without blitzing. And when blitzing, Eli can get rid of the ball to exactly the proper place, ripping the cornerbacks of the Cowboys to shreds. Have a look at the game log of Eli since that fateful night at Texas Stadium:

Date	Result	C-A-Yds-TD-INT	Rating	Sacked
9/20/09	Win	25-38-330-2-0	110.6	0
12/06/09	Win	11-25-241-2-1	88.9	1
10/25/11	Win	25-35-306-4-3	100.4	1
11/14/10	Loss	33-48-373-2-2	88.3	0
12/11/11	Win	27-47-400-2-1	90.7	0
1/1/12	Win	24-33-346-3-0	136.7	2
Totals	5-1	145-226-1996-15-7	101.6	4

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That is unreal. His AVERAGE game against the Cowboys over the last 3 seasons: 24-38-365-2-1 for a QB rating of 101. That is average, as he has done much better than that.

The NFL is a matchup league. Teams play in a division that requires them to see the rest of their division twice a year. Therefore, it is mandatory that as you build your team and plan drafts and free agency every year, you must consider those teams that you will see every single year. Twice.

And in the case of the Giants and the Cowboys, we are going through a period of time where it seems rather clear that the Giants hold some rather substantial matchup issues on both sides of the ball. It has been and will be well documented how the Cowboys offensive line has very little success keeping the Giants DL off of Tony Romo (9 sacks against in 2011). But, perhaps it has not been properly investigated that the Giants hold a similar, fundamental advantage in this matchup because the Cowboys defense, regardless of coordinator, has had no good answer against Eli Manning.

What is interesting to note is that Washington has had great success in slowing down Eli Manning as he has a NFL average QB rating against Washington of 80. Against Philadelphia, he is 1-5 since 2009. But, against the Cowboys, he has all day and shreds the defense so much so that nobody thought it was out of line that he autographed the wall in the Cowboys visiting locker-room in Arlington. He really does own them. But, it should also be noted that Washington has 10 sacks in 3 seasons. Philadelphia 13 sacks. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have 4.

And yet, when you examine the numbers, it seems disingenuous to simply blame the pass rush. In fact, the Cowboys seemed to speak with their actions this spring that they believe Eli Manning owns them because their secondary was not good enough. It is worth noting that from 2009-2011, the top 3 corners on the Cowboys remained the same: Terence Newman, Mike Jenkins, and Orlando Scandrick.

And, time after time, he lit all of their rears on fire whenever they played. Jenkins was the least burned, but his health kept him off the field for almost half of the action. But overall, Eli could throw in any direction. Take a look - Here are the numbers for the 6 games combined when Manning threw the ball at a particular Cowboys' corner (numbers courtesy of ProFootballFocus):

Vs Corner	C-A-Yds-TD-INT	Rating	Snaps
Vs Newman	29-48-498-4-1	114.6	333/430
Vs Jenkins	17-29-237-0-1	70.6	249/430
Vs Scandrick	31-43-409-5-0	140.5	330/430

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Clearly, Eli Manning loved playing the Cowboys because he loved throwing at the corners.

First, the plays against Terence Newman, where Eli would seek out #41 and his "off and soft" techniques and seek him again and again. Sometimes, he would go after him to a fault and he almost threw away last season's game in Arlington, but a pass that hit Newman between the numbers fell harmlessly to the ground. But in 48 passes at Newman over 6 games (8 per), he amassed nearly 500 yards or over 80 per game. What is also worth noting is that none of these corners were able to stay on the field. All 3 of them missed at least 97 snaps in these games due to bangs, bruises, and breathers.

The Cowboys knew that this was an issue and so did anyone watching. Newman's diminished performance was one of the worst kept secrets going around in Cowboys land. So, in free agency, the Cowboys made a tremendous upgrade when they paid Brandon Carr to join their side for $50m. This should challenge Manning with a physical corner who has both the size and the speed to take things away on occasions where the Cowboys wish to press.

But, take a look at the slot. Last week, I was under the impression that Orlando Scandrick might have been able to prevent the long TD pass to Victor Cruz last season with some better slot technique against the option routes of the Giants.

However, after doing the research and reviewing Manning vs Scandrick over 3 years, I was reminded about the nights that Steve Smith dominated Scandrick before Cruz was even in the league. Scandrick may be a reasonable slot receiver and a player who they did not need to focus on replacing, but Scandrick against the Giants has had a pork chop hanging around his neck. A line of 31-43-405 and 5 touchdowns against 0 interceptions equals a QB rating that approaches perfection. The receivers have changed against Scandrick, but the QB and the corner remain the same in the slot, and Eli loves to throw at #32.

These numbers - the idea that Manning has thrown for 500 yards against Newman and 400 more against Scandrick - reveal the issues that Wade Phillips and Rob Ryan have faced when playing him. Either they try to get pressure and risk the secondary being undermanned, or they fortify the secondary and give Eli all day to pick them apart. Either way, they are dead.

And the proof is on the scoreboard, where the Cowboys held the Giants to under 31 points in a game just once in the last 6 meetings. And, in this league, when you give up 31 points or more, you lose. Since 2009, the Cowboys have allowed 31 points on 11 occasions, and are 1-10 (lone win at Indianapolis in 2010, 38-35 (overtime)).

With Carr and the 1st round pick, Mo Claiborne, the Cowboys have now invested in the corner position to a point that it risked other spots on the field to be ignored (OL). With Claiborne, it is more of a long play than a fix for the immediate nature of Wednesday night. Corners, no matter how special and talented, endure a growing process filled with pains, lessons, and tests against veteran QBs. And you can bet that on Wednesday, it will be up to Claiborne to answer all of the questions that are asked of him when Rob Ryan decides to leave him on an island with whoever he is being asked to blanket. Rookie corners always get welcomed to the NFL in the most unkind way possible.

To me, Eli Manning is one of the most complicated QBs to rate in the NFL. He does things that the very best QBs don't do that detract from his greatness. He reminds you of what Jimmy Johnson used to say about league MVP, Brett Favre: He will throw a few to us if we are patient. Manning always mixes in a few plays that could be disastrous. In Super Bowl 42, the Patriots had the game in their hands but Asante Samuel dropped the sure pick. Newman did Manning the same favor last December. As did the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game last January.

He is not near flawless, but I have also decided to stop betting against him. He is better than I have been willing to admit over these last many seasons. I even spent an entire blog on the man and my opinion of him last season.

But, in Dallas, the biggest argument for him is not that he has 2 rings (although that is a rather large argument). The biggest argument for Eli Manning in Dallas is that he owns the Cowboys. He has unreasonable success against the team that loathes him the most. And no matter how they try to slow him down, he wears that smirk and throws another touchdown.

With no Newman to kick around anymore, and 2 very important pieces at the corner position, it will be most interesting to see what posture the Cowboys defense brings into this battle. The good news is that the bar is 365 yards and 31 points. Anything south of either of those 2 numbers will be considered better than usual. The bad news is just how low that bar is right now.

Rob Ryan's New Season

One of the more easy-to-see story lines in Cowboys' camp 2012 is the idea that the defense simply must get better for the team to succeed. No matter how many times the network studio shows assure us that this team could go further if they had better QB play, people that actually break down the team with thoroughness quickly turn their attention to the defense not pulling its weight for large swaths of last season.

Last year, Rob Ryan was brought in to clean up the mess from 2010. There was improvement, but that doesn't say a whole lot, given the circumstances surrounding 2010. That team quit. Badly. On its coach, Wade Phillips. And on quite a few games at the end of his reign. The team absolutely quit about the time Tony Romo's collarbone snapped, and against Jacksonville and Green Bay in the subsequent weeks, the opposition had free paths to the end zone of surprising ease to even them.

So, to issue statistics that point out that the 2010 Cowboys surrendered 436 points and the 2011 Cowboys improved to allow only 347 is all true. But, that 89-point improvement was not enough to get the team into the playoffs, nor was it enough to slow down the rivals in Philadelphia or New York for even one second in the 4 meetings against them. And frankly, when you factor in the quit jobs of 2010, it is tough to even quantify how much improvement there really was.

But, as we enter the 2012 year, very little of that matters. Regulars like Terence Newman and Bradie James are in training camps for other employers, and in their place are acquisitions brought in to understand their orders and carry them out. Specifically, if this team is to find post season play, they must slow down the offenses inside their own division.

And that is the goal of Rob Ryan. Ryan, who is on camera during Cowboys games as much as any assistant coach in the NFL, is a fiery figure who attracts plenty of attention. He has charisma and seems only a short time from his first head coaching job in the league. But, to get there and to get the Cowboys back to the post-season, he has got to figure out how to make this defense strong again.

They improved at times last year. In fact, as of Week 7, when they traveled to Philadelphia on a Sunday Night, it really seemed like he had things somewhat figured out. The team had allowed just 19 explosive plays (plays of 20 yards or more) in 6 games, a number that had the Cowboys amongst the league leaders after conceding 69 in 2010. The final 10 games of 2011 proved that the issue wasn't fixed, however. In those final 10 games, the Cowboys defense limped home and allowed a shocking 45 more explosive plays for a season total that was improved but not fixed. Instead of 69 explosives, they cut it down to 64. Still, 4 times a game they were being shredded for a big play.

In case you are wondering about explosives, and what they could mean to a team, consider Pittsburgh. The Steelers, who happen to own one of the best defenses in all of football on an annual basis, run the 3-4 in such a way that they almost never concede big plays. They led the NFL in fewest explosives allowed in 2011 with 43. They led the NFL in fewest explosives allowed in 2010 with 36. So, basically, in 2 years and 32 regular season games, they have allowed exactly 79 plays of 20 yards or more. And Dallas has, over that same stretch, conceded 133. Pittsburgh gives up 2.4 explosives per game over those 2 years, and Dallas is giving up 4.2 during that same stretch. In a league this close, you don't think 2 big plays PER GAME make a tremendous difference?

It is a sport of big plays. Big plays are what every offense is looking for. And big plays are what every defense is trying to stop.

The Cowboys went to the obvious solution to fix this. If you are allowing 64 big plays, and 57 of them are through the air, then you understand the premium they put on cornerbacks in the offseason. The acquisitions of Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne are well documented and discussed. Tons of money and resources, that surely could have gone elsewhere, were poured into the position of corner. And for good reason. Newman, despite many years of being a good contributor, just had nothing left. His speed, confidence, and ability had all dropped off and when Ryan needed to ask him to man-up, Newman seemed to back off even more.

Mike Jenkins, on the other side, had moments of solid play, but for the most part it was another year of wondering if Mike Jenkins can play physically enough in the NFL. Then, every time he would attempt to get physical, his body would break down again. He either plays passive and healthy, or physical and hurt. It is a bad combination for a player who is young.

Now, with Carr on one side and Claiborne on the other, the idea is that Ryan can finally do what Ryan wants to do as the coordinator of this defense - bring the pressure. And, since the Cowboys have another glaring hole in their personnel structure - they don't seem to have enough guys who can win their battles up front to generate a pass rush without having to resort to risky blitzes - he is asked to make lemonade out of lemons.

To understand his dilemma in simple terms, just understand the math issues of playing the Giants twice a season. Eli Manning, now one of the best QBs in the NFL when he is blitzed, understands this math problem quite well. If the Cowboys would play him straight up (rushing 4 and dropping 7) there was almost no pressure on Manning, and he would take underneath routes or wait on one of his regular sideline routes at 20 yards that is precision based and almost uncover-able to the sideline. If you would bring the blitz (rush more than 4) than he picks up his hot route, normally, someone like Victor Cruz underneath who knows if you are dedicating more players to a pass rush, then he will be in man-coverage because a safety is making sure that nobody gets beat over the top for a huge play.

Also, if you blitz, the Cowboys are counting on the corners to play tight enough so when Eli wants to get rid of the ball, there is nowhere to go. Trouble is, Newman was not playing press coverage - even when he thought he was - for most of last season. He played "off and soft". This prevents more over the top plays, but concedes a slow death of pitch and catch routes that move the chains as Newman is often not even on the screen when the receiver catches the ball.

Ryan would blitz and would get beat. He would play coverage and get beat. It was at its worse in the division. Against the NFC East last season, the Cowboys were shredded by the explosives. Amazingly, in 6 games inside the division, there were 33 explosives allowed. In the other 10 games outside the division, there was just 31. So, if you play in a division that gives you fits, then you better sort that out immediately. The Redskins will be better soon with a QB, and the Giants and Eagles are already familiar with how to carve Dallas up.

One under-reported item that happened more than a few times in 2011 was that teams like the Eagles were starting to attack DeMarcus Ware. At least 6 different times in 2011, the Cowboys had a screen pass right into the teeth of their blitz go for an explosive (a play that totals 20 or more yards). Many times, the screen would set up right behind where Ware was coming from. Chip him with a tight end, like Brent Celek, then release Ware to the QB and Celek would accept the pass with nothing but green grass in front of him. The Jets, Dolphins, Patriots, Eagles, Rams, Lions, and Eagles again all sprung this trap on the Cowboys to back off the blitzing tactics. There is nothing more demoralizing than sending 6 or 7 rushers and then having a QB dink a short pass right behind your men and they run free for 30 yards down the field.

Here is a link to all 64 of the explosives Rob Ryan's defense allowed and you can see how many times the screen was stuck on them. Keep in mind, the Cowboys did not generate a single explosive off the screen in 2011 offensively.

So, if you touch a hot stove, you stop touching it. Many close observers of the team last season felt that Ryan caused many of his own problems by being caught badly in blitzes. His biggest weapon had turned into a predictable weakness. And the Cowboys, as best demonstrated at Philadelphia and at New York, would have their hands burned early and often in games and then lose all confidence and swagger with their blitzing tactics the rest of the way. You could literally see in the eyes of many defenders that they knew their goose was cooked before the game reached half-time. They were screwed if they blitzed, and screwed if they didn't.

Will Anthony Spencer suddenly become the 10 sack guy who can change all of this? Or will more Sean Lissemore and the addition of Tyrone Crawford help the team assemble the pressure from up front? I think both all 3 of those players can help make a real difference. That will get the QB worried without exposing a secondary that is better, but far from perfect with a safety group that still sticks out like a sore thumb when opposing teams begin to assemble game plans to expose weaknesses.

People will yell for Rob Ryan to "do something!" and get mad every time the networks show him after a big play. It is hardly an enviable position, but it is what he is signed up to do. Attack, but not too much. Prevent big plays, but hopefully make big plays, too.

In a short phrase, Ryan's job for 2012 is to make the Cowboys defense part of the solution rather than part of the problem. It is an easy charge in August. But, as we saw last year, the deeper you wade into the year, the tougher this job becomes.

But, let's be clear - either Ryan sorts this defense in 2012 and makes himself a candidate for a head coaching job elsewhere, or he doesn't sort it out and gets replaced in 2013. Either way, I expect this will be the last year for the controversial coordinator in Dallas.

Why did Wade Phillips Work In Houston?

DIscussing defenses around the league is a fun thing to do this time of year on all mediums. On Monday, it was time to sort through why the New York Giants seemed to have so many great defensive lineman and a relentless pass rush that did not depend on one player (answer: they have committed to building a core of depth in New York and they have been successful in doing so).

I have been asked by a few different readers to examine what is going on down in Houston, with Wade Phillips and the Texans installing an entirely new scheme to their personnel and finding great success in year one. If I am going to allow Rob Ryan the mulligan on account of not having an off-season program to make sure everyone was comfortable with the scheme and familiar with what was expected of them, then certainly Houston could have the same excuse for moving from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense.

In fact, much of the off-season, the narrative in Houston was based on the idea that they had players - most notably one of the very best players in the NFL, Mario Williams - that would not fit the 3-4 scheme. He was exceptional as a 4-3 defensive end, but perhaps without a home in Phillips' new scheme. He weighed nearly 300 pounds, and as much versatility as the OLB position required seemed to suggest that this move would have been crazy. But, they tried it with brave faces.

In the Texans 5th game of the season, at home against the Raiders, Williams grabbed his 5th sack of the year by getting to Jason Campbell. In doing so, he ripped his left pectoral muscle and was lost for the season. The Houston equivalent of DeMarcus Ware was going on injured reserve and now Wade Phillips and his staff would have to navigate with both a new scheme and a season-ending injury to their best pass rusher. Surely, as the media quickly typed, this would be the start of a very rocky learning experience.

And clearly, nobody in the media knows what they are talking about. How do we explain this?

Houston Texans - Defense 2010-2011

Year	PPG Vs	Sacks	Takeaways
2010	26.7 (29th)	30 (23rd)	18 (30th)
2011	17.4 (4th)	44 (6th)	27 (12th)

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Not just improvement in every single category, but substantial improvement in every single category. Now, there are some mitigating circumstances that are beyond their control, such as no meetings against Peyton Manning this year, but still, that across-the-board improvement clearly shows a team that won 10 games and their division despite losing their Quarterback and best defender for the season.

So, how does a team improve in every category like this in one year? Especially when switching to a completely scheme and having no offseason to work through all of the bugs? And then, losing their best player within one month of the new season?

When Frank Bush was fired at the end of 2010, Pro Football talk wrote the following: there wasn’t a soul that watched the Texans defense this season that didn’t know that this move was coming. They finished 30th in yards allowed, 29th in points allowed and made quarterbacks from Tim Tebow to Bruce Gradkowski to Kerry Collins look like All-Pros at various points this season. Of course, all those numbers are just part of the reason why this news raises no eyebrows.

It seemed clear to those who did not follow the team closely that adding Wade Phillips and his scheme that helped get him fired in Dallas would end poorly in Houston, too.

And that is when we were reminded again that players play. And when you wonder why a team is as good or bad as it is, you should spend most of your time looking at what kind of players are being put on the field.

Before we go on, let's look at the same graphic from above to show how Dallas did in 2010-2011.

Dallas Cowboys - Defense 2010-2011

Year	PPG Vs	Sacks	Takeaways
2010	27.3 (31st)	35 (16th)	30 (8th)
2011	21.7 (16th)	42 (7th)	25 (16th)

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Perhaps the most important statistic to notice here is that while points allowed and sacks were both improved, the Rob Ryan defense actually generated less takeaways than the 2010 defense that most people would agree spent the last half of October and the first part of November not even exerting much effort or energy.

Here is what I wrote on the topic of Rob Ryan's 1st season last week:

the Cowboys offered almost no personnel changes in 2011. The marginal swap of Kenyon Coleman for Igor Olshansky at DE (which is one veteran replacement level DE for another) and Abram Elam for Alan Ball which appeared to be an upgrade, albeit a incremental upgrade rather than the big dollar upgrades that were available last summer at safety.

In the draft, they offered little to know defensive support. The one potential impact addition would have been in the 2nd round, but the Cowboys took LB Bruce Carter who was returning from a major knee surgery, and he wouldn't be ready until mid November. Essentially, there was no support at all from the 2011 draft, despite the issues the Cowboys faced in 2010 defensively.

So, everyone was invited back. No free agency strikes. No draft support. No dollar investment in the team aside from discount purchases of players of the Cleveland defense who were not heavily sought after in the league.

But, in the end, I think Rob Ryan did as much with the same defense that he was left with as anyone could reasonably be expected to do with no offseason.

What we need to recognize is that he was not given enough to work with. He still had mediocre secondary personnel and one legit pass rusher. Until that changes, bring in any coordinator you want. They may not be as brash as Rob Ryan, but I don't anticipate that they will be able to make this defense elite, either, until some elite players are brought in.

Put another way, of the top 17 Cowboys defensive players (in terms of snaps taken) that were a part of the 2010 disaster, 15 of them were back on the defense this season. Igor Olshansky (573 snaps) and Stephen Bowen (554) were the only non-returners at defensive end.

The Cowboys tried the ultimate experiment of changing a coach, but keeping the personnel almost completely static. Everyone was back, and aside from the two Cleveland Browns who were brought over (Elam and Coleman) the Cowboys were believing that Rob Ryan could simply deploy them differently.

Meanwhile in Houston, their defense in 2010 was thought of as an even bigger disaster. They were at the bottom of the league in all sorts of defensive metrics and decided if they were ever going to win their division and compete in the playoffs, they would have to solve their defensive issues.

And as one takes a look at how they became such an impressive defense in one year, there are a few in the Dallas media that point to Wade Phillips as the difference. Phillips is certainly a capable coordinator, so this is not to dispute that his scheme works in the NFL. But, he surely used all of his tricks in Dallas, and they weren't working. So, why did those same tricks work in Houston? Or did they?

A closer look reveals that in 2011, the Houston Texans overhauled their defense in one short off-season. They are in the final 8 of the NFL Playoffs and have that coveted playoff win in their back pocket as they head to Baltimore to go for another.

Of the spine of that defense, there were 8 players that played more than 700 snaps this season. Quin Glover, Brian Cushing, and Antonio Smith were the 3 holdovers from the Frank Bush crew that finished in the bottom of the league. However, the other 5 players were all brought different pieces that provided Wade Phillips with proper personnel to change the defense to a 3-4.

One of those 5 players was the return of Connor Barwin who suffered a major injury in Week 1 of 2010. His return from his nasty ankle dislocation gave them a perfect outside LB edge rusher to snap right into Wade's plans. His 12 sacks and 18 QB hits combined for 30 different occasions where he hit the quarterback - more than any Dallas defender - including Ware (28 - 20 sacks, 8 QB hits).

The other 4 major defensive contributors all arrived in the spring and summer of 2011. And all 4 required major investments on the part of the Texans. They used free agency and the draft, and they decided to get Phillips players that could make a significant difference right away.

First in the draft, Houston poured all of its resources into the defense. In the 1st Round, they used pick #11 on Wisconsin DE JJ Watt. This, many agree, was the pick the Cowboys would snag if Tyron Smith was not left on the board. The Cowboys made the pick that they most needed, but Watt gave Houston a DE in the 3-4 that causes havoc every Sunday. According to www.profootballfocus.com he graded as Houston's best defender and was able to get to the QB for 7 sacks and 11 QB hits, while standing up in the run game.

Then, in the 2nd round, took OLB Brooks Reed from Arizona at pick #42 (2 picks after the Cowboys had grabbed LB Bruce Carter at #40). Reed was thought to be depth and insurance because the Texans were planning on Barwin and Mario Williams at OLB, but when Mario was lost for the year, Reed took over. He then played 799 snaps and totaled 6 sacks as a rookie. Later in the 2nd round, the Texans traded up with New England to take a cornerback from Miami, Brandon Harris. Harris has played quite sparingly in 2011, but at the age of 21, he has plenty of time to contribute.

In the summer, free agency was the next factor and the Texans used it to make a major strike and to fix their secondary. They signed 27-year old corner, Johnathan Joseph from the Bengals. This was a major expenditure of $48.75 million dollars over 5 years, including $23.5 million guaranteed.

That very same day, they targeted a free safety from Chicago, Danieal Manning. They inked his services at the price of $20 million over $4 seasons, including $9 million guaranteed. He provided kick returning and safety play, and despite missing a month with a fractured fibula, he still played 743 snaps.

So, where do we credit this major improvement and defensive success in Houston? Phillips? The Draft with Watt and Reed? Free agency with Joseph and Manning?

I imagine in Houston it doesn't matter where the credit goes. They covered all of the bases and now have a defense that swarmed Andy Dalton and the Bengals and never let them up for air.

Players play and coaches coach. But, from my seat, I suggest that Houston's off season strategy put them in a spot where they could suffer a major injury and still have their best defensive season ever.

Where (Ware) are the Sacks?

The Cowboys defense has been heavy under the microscope this week after surrendering 400 yards passing, 510 yards in total offense, and 37 points in the home loss to the Giants on the weekend. Rob Ryan's credentials have been examined closer and the defense in general has been targeted for ridicule for their inability to come close to sacking Eli Manning.

The best way to stop an aerial show in the NFL is to apply pressure to the QB. When you cannot get to him in a reasonable amount of time, he is able to then get comfortable, go through his read progressions, and then make an easy throw to his intended target. The QBs at this level are too good to allow that to happen. Yet, again, the Cowboys did just that.

So, over the last several days, I have been asked to break down the pass rush of the Cowboys by the numbers and attempt to figure out how the Giants are doing this, and who on the Cowboys we should be asking much more of.

First, I believe it should all be heading of how good Eli Manning played in this game from an intelligence standpoint. His ability and maturity as a QB has really progressed over the last few seasons, and as critical as I have been of him over the years, I leave this evaluation very impressed by Manning. Rob Ryan threw a ton of things in his direction and was unable to rattle him. In 2008, Eli Manning was sacked 8 times in his final visit to Texas Stadium (the biggest sack performance by a Cowboys defense since 1997) and looked very poor. Since then, he has played 3 games at Dallas and has been sacked once. And I submit that much of it is due to the QB learning how to slow down a pass rush by making sound decisions and getting the ball out quickly. His older brother has been a master of this art for more than a decade, and now it appears Eli is figuring it out, too.

Keep in mind that the Giants had David Diehl (LG) playing Left Tackle against DeMarcus Ware. This was supposed to be a field day for Ware, and it never materialized. It has been suggested in the media that the Cowboys had Ware double-teamed every down. I went back and tried to verify that theory, and here is what I found:

DeMarcus Ware Against New York - 33 pass rush situations:

Lined Up	Single Team	Sacks-Pressure	Double Team	Sacks-Pressure
RT	6	0-2	7	0-1
LT	15	0-2	5	0-0

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As you can see, Ware had 33 chances to get after Eli Manning and ended up with 5 pressures, 0 QB hits, and 0 sacks. How did the Giants do that with David Diehl? Click here to see Ware's 5 pressures.



If you go back and look at those situations where Ware and Diehl squared off, there were almost no occasions when Eli Manning held the ball for any period of time. The ball was out on 3-step drops on quick outs to his WRs or dump downs to a TE. They were not crazy enough to ask Diehl to hold his ground against Ware except on rare occasions. And each of those rare occasions included Eli looking out of the corner of his eye and ready to get rid of the ball.

Then, the Cowboys tried to flip him to the right against the equally underwhelming Kareem McKenzie. McKenzie has been their full-time Right Tackle and ProFootballFocus.com rates him as the 66th tackle in the NFL this year. And yet, the Cowboys were unable to get there on him, either.

Ware did slightly better against McKenzie, but the Giants were very quick to send double teams if they knew they had a pass on that would require any amount of protection.

Here is how Rob Ryan deployed pass rushers, separated by down:

Pass Rushers Against New York - 50 pass rush situations:

Pass Rushers	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
3	6	5	1	0	12
4	6	4	5	0	15
5	7	4	4	1	16
6	2	1	3	0	6
7	0	0	1	0	1

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Eli threw 47 passes (and 3 more passes where penalties rendered it "no play) and the Cowboys tried many different ideas. Ryan would try to bring 5, 6, and even 7 and his guys couldn't get home. On 10 occasions, Ryan sent defensive backs. Still no sacks.
And even worse, no real hits on Manning. He was comfortable and the Cowboys couldn't change that comfort no matter what they tried.

There has been plenty said about the Cowboys defense and the deployment of the 11. Still more is bothersome about the apparent confusion on assignments and timeouts are wasted. At this point of the season, there is no question things should be more seamless, however, on the issue of pass rush, I fear that the strategy is not the problem.

When you have a coordinator who is varying his approach, by trying every conceivable idea in every possible scenario, then you are left to wonder about the quality of the players involved. With Ware, you have true quality. His credentials are flawless and his production is off the charts, by any standard. But, it appears he is hurt and the season has taken its toll. He had 12 sacks after 7 games but just 3 sacks in the last 6.

Additionally, if you are the Giants, you will spend all week figuring out how to handle Ware in each and every scenario. It is certainly way easier said than done, but they executed it flawlessly and then were aided with Ware missing 18 of the final 24 snaps. On 2 of the 6 he was back, he committed crucial penalties trying to cheat the snap count.

But, what of the rest of those Dallas defenders? Anthony Spencer was largely facing single-teams (as is often the case) and he couldn't get home. In fact, Victor Butler had one of the two QB hits (Barry Church) in his spells for Ware late in the game. The defensive ends rushed 68 times and never touched the QB once. Jay Ratliff makes plays every game, but interior pass rush is merely a bonus to his arsenal until the Cowboys move him outside (which doesn't appear to be an option on a defense without a true nose tackle).

Bottom line seems to be this: We can continue to blame Rob Ryan for getting the scheme wrong and wonder why DeMarcus Ware doesn't have 4 sacks a game, but the truth is that Ryan tried everything and the Giants only objective is to stop Ware. The Giants gambled that nobody else would bother Eli Manning on the Cowboys defensive front and they were quite right. The Tyron Smith pick was a marvelous one that addressed a real need on the offensive line, but passing on elite rookie defensive ends like JJ Watt really hurt after games like this one. If only the Cowboys had 2 picks at #9.

This is not to say that Rob Ryan is flawless or that Ware does need to get home regardless of what the Giants do. But the truth seems that the Cowboys have many holes on this roster that scheme can only cover up on certain occasions. They lack difference makers that defy Xs and Os, and until they improve that number of difference makers, we might continue to blame the coordinator for not "coaching them up".

This lack of pass rush seems to be a simple matter of the Cowboys needing to improve the pieces on their defense. Many suggested that last summer, but Dallas thought they could get away with some cheap fixes. And now, they see why that might not have been a great decision.