Other sports can not compete with Sunday. The NFL is the top product in sports for a number of reasons, and we had many of them detailed to us over the course of 8 riveting hours of tense, painful, and high-stakes competition.
In the end, it seemed that two teams advanced by simply surviving. All four teams accomplished many of their laid-out objectives and felt like they put themselves in a perfect position to win late in the game. But, only two would advance to play for the Lombardi Trophy in 2 weeks time. And how those games played out were enough to have each dropped into the "instant classic" bin immediately.
The AFC Championship Game was a battle of strengths as the Patriots offense would have to deal with the Ravens defense. But, the game was so much more than Tom Brady versus Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. New England was a favorite, but because of some sloppy play at times (from Brady, no less), the Patriots ended up allowing the Ravens a +2 turnover margin. In the NFL this season, that 2 turnover margin has been given 107 times, and the record for those on the short end of the stick have gone 10-97 (9% win percentage).
The Ravens caused stops, misses downfield, and even the occasional takeaway. Allowing Joe Flacco and the offense to carve out some offense of their own over the course of the 4 Quarters. Back and forth this hard hitting battle went, and the closer the end came, the closer the two teams were on the scoreboard. Neither side was giving in. And that is what makes this theater so interesting to the viewer. Veterans who may never get this far again, selling out on the field and trying to make the difference for their side.
And what happens when all of those collective contributions are cancelled out on the other side of the field? That is we see an entire season that begins in July boils down to one play in late January. And with all of the stars playing in the game on each side, we also see that the key players in the game are not the players at the forefront of your memory when you look back at this contest.
The Ravens caused a 3-and-out late from the Patriots offense when Ed Reed broke up a 3rd Down pass, and now the Ravens were going to get the ball back one last time with under 2 minutes to go. Trailing 23-20, they would be able to go to the Super Bowl with a touchdown, or settle this in overtime with a field goal.
And this is where Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and the rest of the Patriots offense would go sit down. As would the Ravens defense of Reed, Lewis, and friends. This game would be settled by none of them. They had done what they could to impact the game and now they would spend the rest of the afternoon as spectators.
Those who would decide this game included Flacco, a player who most felt did not have the quality to win a game like this - including some of his teammates. But, throughout the day, he looked poised and ready to make a play when needed. He missed on a few throws that would have been huge gainers to his speedster, Torrey Smith, but managed the game quite well.
On this final drive, the Ravens went to work on Julian Edelman, the Patriots 2-way player (according to ProFootballFocus.com, he played 28 snaps on offense, 27 on defense Sunday), who was trying to cover Anquan Boldin in the slot with very little success. 5 times Flacco went to Boldin - 4 times with Edelman lined up to cover him - for a total of 4 catches for 60 yards in this drive. The Ravens were marching and in position at the 14 yard-line to have at least 2 shots at the end zone before settling for overtime with a chip-shot field goal.
And that is where the play of the game would occur. Lee Evans, who had 4 receptions all year after a 7 productive years in Buffalo, would be lined up in man coverage alone on the right side of the formation, opposite Smith and Boldin on the left. Boldin had Edelman again, so the Patriots were rolling all of their coverage in that direction. The Ravens had the perfect scenario lined up with Evans against Sterling Moore.
Moore, who played his college football for SMU, was undrafted last spring. In July he was signed by the Raiders, but after failing to make their squad out of camp was pushed to their practice squad. Then, 3 weeks later, the Raiders cut him off the practice squad. From September 26th to October 5th, Moore was unemployed, and perhaps pondering a life that did not include football. But, on October 5th, the Patriots called and placed him on their practice squad. Due to injuries and circumstances, Moore was promoted to the roster for the Week 10 game against the Jets and played in 5 regular season games - 3 as a safety, 2 as a corner. So, with a Wide Receiver playing defense against Boldin, here is this unregarded SMU Mustang covering Evans with the Super Bowl hanging in the balance.
On the snap, Flacco makes no mistake where he is going with the ball. He locks on Evans, throws a huge shoulder fake, and then waits for Evans to clear Moore for the back shoulder fade in the end zone. It works perfectly and when the ball falls in Evans arms, Moore is face guarding him - with really no idea where the ball is. Evans catches the ball and appears to have just caught the winning score, when Moore in desperation swipes at the ball. Somehow, Evans seems to have relaxed his grip a bit and Moore is able to get the ball free. Incomplete pass.
3rd Down is a protection breakdown as a 3-man rush cause Flacco to turn away from Boldin vs Edelman and he finally offers a desperation throw to his tight end, Dennis Pitta, that falls incomplete as Sterling Moore again bats the ball away.
4th and 1 from the 14. For reasons that seem unclear, Baltimore had trouble getting the FG team on in a timely manner. By the time they are set up, the play clock is down to inside 10 seconds. Baltimore has a timeout, but perhaps recalling the moment Dallas had this season, John Harbaugh does not call a timeout and risk "icing his own kicker". This causes a rushed snap, a hold that does not get the laces right, and a hooked kick by former Cowboy (2002-2005), Billy Cundiff. It was a gutting end to a valiant effort from the Ravens, and for New England, a fortuitous ending that will put them in yet another Super Bowl.
Meanwhile, over 2,600 miles away another classic was about to happen. This one involving the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of some wonderful playoff games 2 decades ago.
Much like the earlier battle, the largest lead would be only 7 points, and the battle would be intense all afternoon long.
For much of the day, we thought the hero might be Vernon Davis. Davis continued to be a player who can only be stopped by his own decisions as his two touchdowns were somewhat mitigated by his two personal fouls. He is simply too talented to cover as a tight end, too fast for linebackers or safeties, too strong for cornerbacks.
If not Davis, then surely it would be Eli Manning again. Manning took a tremendous beating, being sacked 6 times and hit at least 20 times in all. The 49ers pass rush started slow, but by the 2nd half, Eli seemed to take a shot almost every time he threw the ball. It demonstrated yet again that Manning has grown into one of the more clutch QBs in the sport, despite many of us refusing to place him in that class. The facts are that his 4th Quarter performances are top notch, his 3rd Down throws are as good as anyones, and now he has won a 5th road playoff game - someone nobody in the NFL has ever done. That final statistic is a bit dubious, as many of the greats seldom find themselves on the road as often as Eli in the playoffs (given that they win higher seeds), but nevertheless, the playoff road game is one of the most difficult things to do in the NFL for a QB, and Manning has now done it 5 times.
But, despite many huge throws in tight spots, this game was likely not decided by either QB. Although, Manning threw the ball 58 times and Alex Smith only completed 12 passes all day. The Giants took 90 snaps to the 49ers 57, but in the end, yardage was close enough, 352-328, New York.
No, this game, like the game before it, would be settled by unlikely characters. Kyle Williams, a 6th round pick in the 2010 draft from Arizona State, is the son of Chicago White Sox General Manager, Kenny Williams. He is a young WR, who appears to have some value, but yesterday was asked to return punts as the normal return man, Ted Ginn, Jr, was unable to play due to injury.
Williams had returned just 5 punts as a pro in 2 seasons, but yesterday was asked to field 8 punts in rather wet, high pressure situations. The first sign that trouble might be ahead was with 13:30 left in the 3Q, where Williams made a very risky decision to dive to catch a punt as pressure was bearing down, rather than the percentage play of getting away from the ball and letting it bounce. He fielded it as the stadium gasped, and no damage was done.
But, in the 4th Quarter with a 14-10 lead, Williams would not be as fortunate. A punt with 11:15 to play landed 10 yards in front of him, but then rolled at him as he casually moved stepped towards the ball. The ball takes odd bounces, and this time it brushed his leg ever so slightly, putting the ball into play as Giants gunner, Devin Thomas alertly grabbed the ball. In another era with no instant replay, this play would have stayed with the 49ers. But, with replay, it was properly discovered that the Giants just found field position that they did not have to travel with their offense. A possession that started inside the 49ers 30-yard line was eventually cashed in for a go-ahead touchdown when Eli found Mario Manningham for a 17-14 Giants lead. It was the first turnover of the game.
The 49ers would tie the game, aided by a big Williams return, and send it into overtime at 17-17. But, again, this amazing Sunday would frown on young Kyle Williams. A punt with 9:40 left in overtime was fumbled again by Williams as rookie Jacquian Williams for New York would strip him and Devin Thomas would recover again at the 49ers 24. Amazing.
A few moments later, Lawrence Tynes would do what Billy Cundiff couldn't do, which was to nail a chip shot on the road, and the Giants would also punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.
Even the biggest football experts would not have placed Sterling Moore and Kyle Williams in the headlines as the day started. Nor, Lee Evans and Devin Thomas. But, the hands of fate put them all front and center as the NFL's Championship Sunday paid off with drama that will not soon be forgotten.
And now, it is the Giants and Patriots, back together again in the Super Bowl. And we have 13 days to wait to see if this tournament
can captivate us one more time.
Amazing theater from the National Football League. I only regret it is about to go away for 7 months.
Showing posts with label NFL Playoffs 2011. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL Playoffs 2011. Show all posts
Monday, January 23, 2012
Thursday, January 19, 2012
The NFC Merry-Go-Round - and Picks
The post-free agency era of the NFL has given us a tale of two conferences when it comes to championship games and Super Bowl appearances. 1993 signaled the first real phase of free agency around the league where players could easily change teams when their contracts expired. If you allow for a few years for market corrections and the effects to take hold, many have blamed free agency with slowly ending the Dallas Cowboys dynasty of the 1990's, and ushering in an era of parity around the league.
The two conferences, though, appear to have gone in drastically different directions for parity since that time.
In the AFC, since Dallas and Pittsburgh met in Super Bowl XXX to conclude the 1995 season, there have been 15 Super Bowls played and the AFC has been represented by only 7 different teams (43% of the conference). New England has gone 5 times, Pittsburgh has added 3 more, the Colts and Broncos have gone twice, and the Titans, Ravens, and Raiders have all gone once each.
This is in stark contrast to the NFC, where in 15 Super Bowls since the Cowboys have last attended, there have been 11 different NFC teams (69% of the conference), with only one team, Green Bay having gone more than twice (3). Beyond that, the Giants have gone twice, the Rams went twice, and 8 other clubs have gone once each - The Falcons, Buccaneers, Panthers, Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, Cardinals, and Saints.
But, it gets even more shocking when you zoom in a bit on the results since the year 2000, when free agency had totally cycled through the NFL feeding system for nearly an entire decade.
Since then, in the AFC, only 9 teams have played in the AFC Championship game and just 5 have gone to a Super Bowl since the 2000 season. Basically, the last dozen seasons in the AFC have been about 3 teams dominance, the Patriots, the Steelers, and the Colts.
Meanwhile, in the NFC, 13 different teams have played in a NFC Championship game in the last decade. 13 of 16 teams accounts for 81% of the teams in the entire conference and has put almost every single team within 60 minutes of a Super Bowl in the last 10 seasons. Only Detroit, Washington, and Dallas have not played in a NFC Championship game since the turn of the millennium. It is almost impossible to ponder.
And here is the most staggering number of all. If the San Francisco 49ers win on Sunday afternoon, that will put 11 different NFC teams in the Super Bowl in the last 11 years! Starting with St Louis in the 2001 season, the NFC has sent in order, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Philadelphia, Seattle, Chicago, New York, Arizona, New Orleans, and Green Bay.
Pending a 49ers win this weekend, the only teams in the NFC to have not been represented in the Super Bowl since Bill Clinton left the White House are the Lions, Redskins, Cowboys, Vikings, and Falcons.
The odds of 11 different teams representing the NFC in 11 years are monstrous. And yet, it is difficult to draw any conclusions due to the fact that the AFC has not dealt with this parity or mediocrity. Once again, this year, the AFC will have a match-up of two teams that have 7 AFC Championship Games in this decade. While the 49ers are headed to their first NFC Championship Game since 1998.
Are the franchise QBs of the AFC that far superior to anything the NFC has thrown out there? Is the AFC simply top heavy and therefore the depth of the conference makes it easier for the better teams to return to the late rounds of the playoffs again and again? Or, does the NFC just not have any teams that separate themselves from the competition? Since 2000, only Philadelphia (5 times) and New York (3) have been to more than two conference title games.
Regardless, it is an interesting study in parity. It does exist. The teams are closer together than ever before, however, to suggest it is random and even would be to ignore the Steelers and Patriots, in particular.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys, whose 14 NFC Championship Game appearances lead the conference still (SF will play in #13 this weekend), now face a drought from this weekend that is only surpassed by Washington and Detroit who played each other in 1991 at RFK Stadium, and have not returned.
==========
Here are my picks for the weekend's conference title games:
Baltimore at New England: This looks to be an excellent matchup of the strengths as the Patriots offense takes on the Ravens defense. Certainly, the Ravens will not be over-run, but the environment that they walk into will be one where the New England offense looks unstoppable. There was a time, earlier in the season, where the Patriots were beatable at home, but as the season has gone on, it is back to believing that a team would need to approach 30-35 points if they are to take down Tom Brady. And that is what Baltimore will have to deal with. They figured it out in January of 2010 in Foxboro, but I have a hard time believing this Ravens offense, which struggled for large swaths of the game against Houston last week, will be able to go score for score with New England. Further, Ed Reed is gimpy, and Joe Flacco's numbers on the road are extremely pedestrian. One hopes for an exciting game, but when you consider a number of elements, I arrive at a game which I think is in full control in the 4th Quarter. Patriots win this one and return to the Super Bowl, in Indianapolis of all places. Patriots 28, Ravens 17
New York at San Francisco: I am quite excited about this battle. One thing that has made both teams successful this season has been their play along the line of scrimmage. But, now, they play each other, which most believe will be each team's best attribute squaring off. Will NY's Defensive line be able to bully the sizable OL from San Francisco? I don't believe so. Will NY be able to run on the San Francisco front? I doubt it. Also, will Eli Manning have all day, like he did in Green Bay, to wait for openings in the secondary? The key for San Francisco will be to figure out how to get off the field on those 3rd Down situations where Eli has been so good recently. Also, there is obviously a question about how Vernon Davis will be covered (hopefully, the Saints taught New York that man-to-man isn't really an option) and an even bigger question about Alex Smith continuing his play that is defying most of his critics. My pick in this game is quite difficult and certainly doesn't hold a ton of confidence, but I am going to believe that the 49ers will be able to run the ball a bit and the belief that the Candlestick crowd will get them over the top. This should be a classic bloodbath starring Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, Justin Tuck, and Jason Pierre-Paul, and a can't miss afternoon of football. 49ers 24, Giants 21
Enjoy it while you can. Football season is almost over.
The two conferences, though, appear to have gone in drastically different directions for parity since that time.
In the AFC, since Dallas and Pittsburgh met in Super Bowl XXX to conclude the 1995 season, there have been 15 Super Bowls played and the AFC has been represented by only 7 different teams (43% of the conference). New England has gone 5 times, Pittsburgh has added 3 more, the Colts and Broncos have gone twice, and the Titans, Ravens, and Raiders have all gone once each.
This is in stark contrast to the NFC, where in 15 Super Bowls since the Cowboys have last attended, there have been 11 different NFC teams (69% of the conference), with only one team, Green Bay having gone more than twice (3). Beyond that, the Giants have gone twice, the Rams went twice, and 8 other clubs have gone once each - The Falcons, Buccaneers, Panthers, Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, Cardinals, and Saints.
But, it gets even more shocking when you zoom in a bit on the results since the year 2000, when free agency had totally cycled through the NFL feeding system for nearly an entire decade.
Since then, in the AFC, only 9 teams have played in the AFC Championship game and just 5 have gone to a Super Bowl since the 2000 season. Basically, the last dozen seasons in the AFC have been about 3 teams dominance, the Patriots, the Steelers, and the Colts.
Meanwhile, in the NFC, 13 different teams have played in a NFC Championship game in the last decade. 13 of 16 teams accounts for 81% of the teams in the entire conference and has put almost every single team within 60 minutes of a Super Bowl in the last 10 seasons. Only Detroit, Washington, and Dallas have not played in a NFC Championship game since the turn of the millennium. It is almost impossible to ponder.
And here is the most staggering number of all. If the San Francisco 49ers win on Sunday afternoon, that will put 11 different NFC teams in the Super Bowl in the last 11 years! Starting with St Louis in the 2001 season, the NFC has sent in order, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Philadelphia, Seattle, Chicago, New York, Arizona, New Orleans, and Green Bay.
Pending a 49ers win this weekend, the only teams in the NFC to have not been represented in the Super Bowl since Bill Clinton left the White House are the Lions, Redskins, Cowboys, Vikings, and Falcons.
The odds of 11 different teams representing the NFC in 11 years are monstrous. And yet, it is difficult to draw any conclusions due to the fact that the AFC has not dealt with this parity or mediocrity. Once again, this year, the AFC will have a match-up of two teams that have 7 AFC Championship Games in this decade. While the 49ers are headed to their first NFC Championship Game since 1998.
Are the franchise QBs of the AFC that far superior to anything the NFC has thrown out there? Is the AFC simply top heavy and therefore the depth of the conference makes it easier for the better teams to return to the late rounds of the playoffs again and again? Or, does the NFC just not have any teams that separate themselves from the competition? Since 2000, only Philadelphia (5 times) and New York (3) have been to more than two conference title games.
Regardless, it is an interesting study in parity. It does exist. The teams are closer together than ever before, however, to suggest it is random and even would be to ignore the Steelers and Patriots, in particular.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys, whose 14 NFC Championship Game appearances lead the conference still (SF will play in #13 this weekend), now face a drought from this weekend that is only surpassed by Washington and Detroit who played each other in 1991 at RFK Stadium, and have not returned.
==========
Here are my picks for the weekend's conference title games:
Baltimore at New England: This looks to be an excellent matchup of the strengths as the Patriots offense takes on the Ravens defense. Certainly, the Ravens will not be over-run, but the environment that they walk into will be one where the New England offense looks unstoppable. There was a time, earlier in the season, where the Patriots were beatable at home, but as the season has gone on, it is back to believing that a team would need to approach 30-35 points if they are to take down Tom Brady. And that is what Baltimore will have to deal with. They figured it out in January of 2010 in Foxboro, but I have a hard time believing this Ravens offense, which struggled for large swaths of the game against Houston last week, will be able to go score for score with New England. Further, Ed Reed is gimpy, and Joe Flacco's numbers on the road are extremely pedestrian. One hopes for an exciting game, but when you consider a number of elements, I arrive at a game which I think is in full control in the 4th Quarter. Patriots win this one and return to the Super Bowl, in Indianapolis of all places. Patriots 28, Ravens 17
New York at San Francisco: I am quite excited about this battle. One thing that has made both teams successful this season has been their play along the line of scrimmage. But, now, they play each other, which most believe will be each team's best attribute squaring off. Will NY's Defensive line be able to bully the sizable OL from San Francisco? I don't believe so. Will NY be able to run on the San Francisco front? I doubt it. Also, will Eli Manning have all day, like he did in Green Bay, to wait for openings in the secondary? The key for San Francisco will be to figure out how to get off the field on those 3rd Down situations where Eli has been so good recently. Also, there is obviously a question about how Vernon Davis will be covered (hopefully, the Saints taught New York that man-to-man isn't really an option) and an even bigger question about Alex Smith continuing his play that is defying most of his critics. My pick in this game is quite difficult and certainly doesn't hold a ton of confidence, but I am going to believe that the 49ers will be able to run the ball a bit and the belief that the Candlestick crowd will get them over the top. This should be a classic bloodbath starring Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, Justin Tuck, and Jason Pierre-Paul, and a can't miss afternoon of football. 49ers 24, Giants 21
Enjoy it while you can. Football season is almost over.
Monday, January 16, 2012
Home Field Stuff
Over the course of many years, I keep a data-base for various trends in the NFL game. This morning, let's update two of the most interesting, Home Field Advantage, Seeding, and the Turnover Battles:
Home Field Advantage and Seeding:
The table you will see below is a simple tracking of seeding and home field advantage in the NFL playoffs since the field was expanded to 6 teams per conference in the 1990 season.
As you might notice, the 2011 column only represents 8 of the 10 games that are played before the Super Bowl (since the final 2 games have yet to be played). In that 22 seasons, the best year for home teams was 8-2. This season, if New England and San Francisco both win on Sunday, that would put the home teams at an all-time high 9-1, which I suppose would suggest that home field means something again. But, given that in 2010, the home teams were 4-6 in the playoffs, that would likely be a rush to judgement and a knee jerk reaction we should resist.
What makes that 9-1 home record all the more remarkable would be that the lone loss would be 15-1 Green Bay losing at home as the #1 seed in the NFC. A quick scan of the NFC side of the table below will reveal that the #1 seed of the NFC Playoffs played in the NFC Championship Game every year from 1990-2006. But, in 2007, when the Cowboys lost in their 1st playoff game, the #1 seed started trending in the wrong direction. Since then, the 2008 Giants, 2010 Falcons, and 2011 Packers have all gone one-and-done.
(* = Super Bowl Team)
The other thing that is extra fascinating about tracking these numbers since the format change is that the Super Bowl representatives have also opened up quite a bit in the last handful of years. Between 1990 and 2004, there were no #5 or #6 seeds to play in a Super Bowl - let alone to win one.
Since then, it seems like anything is possible if you simply "make the tournament". Get in and if you can play the hot hand, you can go all the way. It started with the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, who were the #6 seed in a crazy year where 11-5 was the last spot to make the playoffs. They won 3 straight road games at Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Denver and won the Super Bowl over Seattle in Detroit at Ford Field.
In 2007, we all remember the #5 seed New York Giants, who finished at 10-6, caught fire with wins against Tampa, Dallas, and Green Bay and go on a run all the way to Glendale, Arizona to defeat the 18-0 Patriots in Super Bowl 42.
And in 2010, the #6 seed Green Bay Packers (10-6) barely scraped into the playoffs before getting on a huge roll and winning games in Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Chicago, before edging Pittsburgh in Super Bowl 45 in Arlington.
So, it only makes sense that the same Packers squad would get the #1 seed and home field throughout and then see their title defense end in less than 3 hours to a team that finished the season 9-7. Of course it does.
One other item that is interesting to track is the cumulative record for the home team during this 22-year study. 148-70 (67.8%) is the overall home record during the stretch, but you see the decline over 5 year increments that would seem to coincide with free agency and further NFL parity. By 2005, home field had almost no bearing at all:
1990-1994: 37-13 - 74%
1995-1999: 36-14 - 72%
2000-2004: 35-15 - 70%
2005-2009: 29-21 - 58%
2010-2011: 11-7 - 61% (only 1 complete year)
Totals: 148-70 68%
You would still always prefer to have a home game when everything is on the line, but the league is so close that the opportunity for the visitor to win a big game is as good as it has ever been.
Turnover Battle:
Despite the innovations of the NFL game over the year, there is nothing more constant than the impact of the turnover. It is staggering and reliable that the turnover - even one - impacts the game more than any statistic on the face of the earth.
Every year, the rate of winners of the turnover battle also winning the game hit at 78.4%. Now remember, this number has no relation to home field, point spreads, health, caliber of QBs, or anything. Put Team A against Team B - makes no difference which is which, and see that the winner of the turnover battle, even if it is only by a +1 margin, will win around 4 of every 5 games.
So how does this affect the playoffs? Since 1990, the winner of the turnover battle has a record of 171-33 in the playoffs. This winning percentage is even higher, hitting at 83.8! The results are far more convincing than home field advantage or favorite or anything.
Here is that 22-year trend by 5 year blocks:
1990-1994: 43-4 - 85%
1995-1999: 38-8 - 83%
2000-2004: 41-7 - 85%
2005-2009: 39-9 - 81%
2010-2011: 10-5 - 67% (only 1 complete year)
Totals 171-33 - 84%
You can certainly see that last year in particular was a crazy playoff, where 4 teams won games where they lost the turnover battle, but that is an extreme rarity.
This past weekend, New York was a +3, Baltimore a +4, and San Francisco a +4. Denver actually won the turnover battle with New England, but that cannot erase 6 Tom Brady touchdowns. In the wildcard round, there was only one game with a turnover differential, and that was Houston at a +3 over the Bengals.
So, next time you hear about key stats, just recall that sometimes we over-complicate matters. The NFL has changed, but it still comes back to giveaways and takeaways. 84% of the time, that shows you the winner. A trend that is almost certain to be unmatched.
Home Field Advantage and Seeding:
The table you will see below is a simple tracking of seeding and home field advantage in the NFL playoffs since the field was expanded to 6 teams per conference in the 1990 season.
As you might notice, the 2011 column only represents 8 of the 10 games that are played before the Super Bowl (since the final 2 games have yet to be played). In that 22 seasons, the best year for home teams was 8-2. This season, if New England and San Francisco both win on Sunday, that would put the home teams at an all-time high 9-1, which I suppose would suggest that home field means something again. But, given that in 2010, the home teams were 4-6 in the playoffs, that would likely be a rush to judgement and a knee jerk reaction we should resist.
What makes that 9-1 home record all the more remarkable would be that the lone loss would be 15-1 Green Bay losing at home as the #1 seed in the NFC. A quick scan of the NFC side of the table below will reveal that the #1 seed of the NFC Playoffs played in the NFC Championship Game every year from 1990-2006. But, in 2007, when the Cowboys lost in their 1st playoff game, the #1 seed started trending in the wrong direction. Since then, the 2008 Giants, 2010 Falcons, and 2011 Packers have all gone one-and-done.
| Year | Home Record | AFC Seeds | NFC Seeds |
| 1990 | 8-2 | 1* vs 2 | 1 vs 2* |
| 1991 | 8-2 | 1* vs 2 | 1* vs 2 |
| 1992 | 5-5 | 2 vs 4* | 1 vs 2* |
| 1993 | 8-2 | 1* vs 3 | 1* vs 2 |
| 1994 | 8-2 | 1 vs 2* | 1* vs 2 |
| 1995 | 7-3 | 2* vs 5 | 1* vs 3 |
| 1996 | 8-2 | 2* vs 5 | 1* vs 2 |
| 1997 | 6-4 | 2 vs 4* | 1 vs 2* |
| 1998 | 8-2 | 1* vs 2 | 1 vs 2* |
| 1999 | 7-3 | 1 vs 4* | 1* vs 2 |
| 2000 | 8-2 | 2 vs 4* | 1* vs 2 |
| 2001 | 7-3 | 1 vs 2* | 1* vs 3 |
| 2002 | 8-2 | 1* vs 2 | 1 vs 2* |
| 2003 | 6-4 | 1* vs 3 | 1 vs 3* |
| 2004 | 6-4 | 1 vs 2* | 1* vs 2 |
| 2005 | 4-6 | 2 vs 6* | 1* vs 5 |
| 2006 | 8-2 | 3* vs 4 | 1* vs 2 |
| 2007 | 5-5 | 1* vs 3 | 2 vs 5* |
| 2008 | 5-5 | 2* vs 6 | 4* vs 6 |
| 2009 | 7-3 | 1* vs 5 | 1* vs 2 |
| 2010 | 4-6 | 2* vs 6 | 2 vs 6* |
| 2011 | 7-1 | 1 vs 2 | 2 vs 4 |
(* = Super Bowl Team)
The other thing that is extra fascinating about tracking these numbers since the format change is that the Super Bowl representatives have also opened up quite a bit in the last handful of years. Between 1990 and 2004, there were no #5 or #6 seeds to play in a Super Bowl - let alone to win one.
Since then, it seems like anything is possible if you simply "make the tournament". Get in and if you can play the hot hand, you can go all the way. It started with the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, who were the #6 seed in a crazy year where 11-5 was the last spot to make the playoffs. They won 3 straight road games at Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Denver and won the Super Bowl over Seattle in Detroit at Ford Field.
In 2007, we all remember the #5 seed New York Giants, who finished at 10-6, caught fire with wins against Tampa, Dallas, and Green Bay and go on a run all the way to Glendale, Arizona to defeat the 18-0 Patriots in Super Bowl 42.
And in 2010, the #6 seed Green Bay Packers (10-6) barely scraped into the playoffs before getting on a huge roll and winning games in Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Chicago, before edging Pittsburgh in Super Bowl 45 in Arlington.
So, it only makes sense that the same Packers squad would get the #1 seed and home field throughout and then see their title defense end in less than 3 hours to a team that finished the season 9-7. Of course it does.
One other item that is interesting to track is the cumulative record for the home team during this 22-year study. 148-70 (67.8%) is the overall home record during the stretch, but you see the decline over 5 year increments that would seem to coincide with free agency and further NFL parity. By 2005, home field had almost no bearing at all:
1990-1994: 37-13 - 74%
1995-1999: 36-14 - 72%
2000-2004: 35-15 - 70%
2005-2009: 29-21 - 58%
2010-2011: 11-7 - 61% (only 1 complete year)
Totals: 148-70 68%
You would still always prefer to have a home game when everything is on the line, but the league is so close that the opportunity for the visitor to win a big game is as good as it has ever been.
Turnover Battle:
Despite the innovations of the NFL game over the year, there is nothing more constant than the impact of the turnover. It is staggering and reliable that the turnover - even one - impacts the game more than any statistic on the face of the earth.
Every year, the rate of winners of the turnover battle also winning the game hit at 78.4%. Now remember, this number has no relation to home field, point spreads, health, caliber of QBs, or anything. Put Team A against Team B - makes no difference which is which, and see that the winner of the turnover battle, even if it is only by a +1 margin, will win around 4 of every 5 games.
So how does this affect the playoffs? Since 1990, the winner of the turnover battle has a record of 171-33 in the playoffs. This winning percentage is even higher, hitting at 83.8! The results are far more convincing than home field advantage or favorite or anything.
Here is that 22-year trend by 5 year blocks:
1990-1994: 43-4 - 85%
1995-1999: 38-8 - 83%
2000-2004: 41-7 - 85%
2005-2009: 39-9 - 81%
2010-2011: 10-5 - 67% (only 1 complete year)
Totals 171-33 - 84%
You can certainly see that last year in particular was a crazy playoff, where 4 teams won games where they lost the turnover battle, but that is an extreme rarity.
This past weekend, New York was a +3, Baltimore a +4, and San Francisco a +4. Denver actually won the turnover battle with New England, but that cannot erase 6 Tom Brady touchdowns. In the wildcard round, there was only one game with a turnover differential, and that was Houston at a +3 over the Bengals.
So, next time you hear about key stats, just recall that sometimes we over-complicate matters. The NFL has changed, but it still comes back to giveaways and takeaways. 84% of the time, that shows you the winner. A trend that is almost certain to be unmatched.
Credit to Eli Manning
Being both a big mouth and a football-obsessed member of the media for 18 years, I have spent a fair amount of time trying to figure things out in the NFL. Over 3,100 episodes of the Bob and Dan show since 1999 on Sportsradio 1310 the Ticket on Dallas airwaves at 3 hours per show has put us dangerously close to the Malcolm Gladwell "10,000" hour rule. That rule argues "that the key to success in any field is, to a large extent, a matter of practicing a specific task for a total of around 10,000 hours."
And yet, as I reread Gladwell's thoughts on the 10,000 hour rule, it does not profess to offer perfection after 10,000 hours. A pianist will not reach that milestone and suddenly never play a wrong note. A basketball player or golfer will not make every shot just because they have put in the experience. And to that truth, I breathed a sigh of relief.
Because after writing thousands of football blogs and bantering on and on about the sport for almost two decades, it is clear that I am now prepared to look a major mistake right in the eyes. After talking about Eli Manning for years and years, I am more that prepared to take it all back and admit I had it completely and utterly wrong.
You see, I have been skeptical of his work since Ole Miss, when he arrived on the scene as this prodigy who can't miss. Why? Because he is the son of a NFL Quarterback and the brother of maybe the best QB of our generation. And that is what bothered me. I would watch him play in college (in particular, a home and home series with Texas Tech in '02 and '03) and would begin to assemble a theory that most of the media was looking at his family lineage a lot closer than his actual play.
I saw problems with his judgement, his throws were sometimes off the back foot, his composure was hit-or-miss, and it just seemed lazy for media types to look at his last name and not look at his tape. I wasn't going to make that mistake, I thought. I will watch more tape and try to imagine him without that last name. What would I think of Eli Manning if his name was Scott Smith? I would think that he was a decent QB, but not destined for NFL greatness.
On draft day, 2004, Eli and his father decided to dictate terms to the NFL when it came to drafting him. San Diego had the top pick in the draft, and in the NFL, it takes a lot of nerve to think you can tell a franchise that you aren't going to play there. It delivers a message of ego and narcissism that usually doesn't exist in a kid right out of college, but the Mannings did not appear short on nerve. Somehow, playing in San Diego seemed to not meet with their hopes, and instead, with some help, they brokered a deal to where Eli could land in the biggest media market on the planet, New York.
Looking back, that surely affected my judgement. He was going to dictate terms to the NFL? Again, if he was Scott Smith, this would never work, I thought. This is more catering to his last name. And he wanted to go play for them? The Giants? Surely, my judgement was also affected by this kid wanting to force his way to a NFC rival that already thinks they are deserving of whatever advantages they may receive from their geographical location and self-assigned significance on the NFL landscape.
His career began in New York and his numbers were brutal. In his first few years, his production was far more reminiscent of Quincy Carter than any superstars who go #1 overall and tell San Diego to take a hike. Yet, he was being lavished with riches and adoration from New York and celebrated as NFL royalty. All the way through the end of his 4th season, his completion percentage was always in the mid-50s (mediocre) and his QB rating was always in the mid 70s (worse than mediocre). 4 years and 55 starts into his career, I had seen enough to feel like I hit this one out of the park. He was an average QB and New York and the NFL was fooled by his last name. If only they had done the Scott Smith test, like I did.
I clearly remember the start of the 2007 playoffs. New York was at Tampa Bay, and most were of the feeling that the Giants would be one and done. They beat Tampa, and Eli looked good. But, surely, that wouldn't last. The next week, they were coming here, to play the Dallas Cowboys and the 13-3 juggernaut with their "elite QB" Tony Romo. Romo, seemed to be the polar opposite of Manning. He was undrafted and yet had numbers that dazzled. QB rating was up their with Eli's big brother, Peyton. He wasn't anointed on draft day as the 2nd coming. Romo worked for everything that he had earned. Eli was presented everything on a comfortable pillow.
And then, the game revealed that Eli was ready to win this game. Throw after throw was made and 3rd downs were converted. Eli was no "bus driver". On that day, he out-dueled Romo and shocked the NFL with a knockout of a #1 seed. It was the first time that my opinion was rocked. The very next week, he made more big throws and never threw the big interception at Lambeau Field. He delivered on a stage where Brett Favre was sure to have a date with destiny in Super Bowl 42. But, Eli took that date and cancelled it. Not by himself, but again, like with his beating of Romo, he clearly offered the edge at QB play. His defense and running game did the rest, but Eli was no passenger.
Super Bowl 42 was a thing of beauty. Again, the Giants were a big underdog and were not a hot team at all when the playoffs hit. They finished the year 4-4 and were thought of as a nice easy playoff opponent. But after he made big throws in the 2nd half of that Super Bowl against the 18-0 Patriots, nobody doubted his award for Super Bowl MVP. He was clutch and he got it done. His playoff numbers in 2007 were the best of his career, with a rating of 96, and 6 TDs and just 1 INT.
Personally, I had mixed emotions on what he was all about. On one hand, we had a huge body of work of very average QB play over 4 seasons in the pros. But, then we had this remarkable month in January of 2008 where he couldn't miss and wouldn't crack under any type of scheme or pressure. Was this the case of a player in a 1-month zone, playing the best of his career at just the perfect time? Or even luckiest time?
2008 started and Eli was a Super Bowl champion. He was now in a position to be one of the elite QBs and needed to prove he could play well on a Sunday to Sunday basis like the greats all could. But, he was simply, "ok". He won a lot of games, but his QB play just wasn't that impressive. His numbers were always so-so, and his posture and expressions indicated that he was never enjoying himself. His demeanor seemed to indicate that this was not a fun profession, but rather something he had to do since he was a boy. His enthusiasm seemed to be non-existent and in a sport that features some very enthusiastic QBs, this was a weird departure.
The Giants were one-and-done in 2008, 8-8 in 2009, and missed the playoffs late in 2010. With each passing year, Eli's 2007 looked more like a decent QB playing out of his mind in that one month. He was a fine QB, but not a great one. Looking around the NFL, it was easy to make cases for his skill set being inferior to quite a few others.
But he had his ring. And therefore had the debate advantage against anyone who did not have one as well. As he hit his 30th birthday, opinions were still just as split as ever on Eli Manning.
In August, he was asked how he could get to that top class of NFL QBs, next to Tom Brady. Eli responded, "I consider myself in that class." I snickered. It seemed absurd.
2011 brought the 1st year in his career where his brother was not putting up superior numbers elsewhere in the league. And Eli responded by putting up the best numbers of his career. Easily the best yardage per attempt and yardage per game numbers. The interceptions that haunted him in 2010 dropped substantially, and his performances in big games started to soar again.
And yesterday can put those 2007 "fluke" premises to bed. His performance at Lambeau against a heavily-favored, 15-1 Packers squad cannot be understated. The Packers played like a team with the weight of the world on their shoulders and as they say, "pressure busts pipes". With each drop or fumble, the Packers free-wheeling offense grew tighter and tighter. Things were so easy until they were not. And with a ticking clock piling more and more pressure up, Eli hit Hakeem Nicks for a pair of gigantic 1st half TDs, including a Hail Mary that likely won New York the game.
Aaron Rodgers, who 9 out of 10 football people would say is a better QB, succumbed to the pressure of the situation - missing throws he never misses. While Eli Manning stood tall and delivered precise passes to perfect spots for a good part of the game. His best throws were his most important throws, converting on long 3rd Downs all day long. He won a duel that most people thought he couldn't.
Now, Eli Manning sits in the NFC Championship Game. He will again be an underdog, and many of us will look at a San Francisco defense to take him apart. But, my days of vocally doubting Eli Manning are done. He has seemed to always play well against the Dallas Cowboys - so much so that he autographed the wall in the new stadium visitor's locker room, but those aren't his only big days. In fact, they are not even close to his most important big days.
He beat Brady in a Super Bowl. He beat Favre in Lambeau in the NFC Championship Game. He now has beaten Rodgers in Lambeau in the playoffs. He has won enough times during the playoffs in very difficult situations to realize that while, yes, he does have the pleasure of playing on a team with a very dominant defense, he still delivers when called upon. He is not winning by himself, but he is winning.
So, yes, I was wrong on Eli Manning. Many times. I have no idea where to rate him among the elite QBs in the NFL. But, it is foolish to spend much time picking apart his body language or his October passer rating. He plays his best at the biggest time of the year, and has a special ability to never seem to feel pressure when his counter-parts do.
And that is where we must surmise that his lineage does matter and always did. The NFL is not as impressive to someone who grew up in a home with NFL Quarterbacks his entire life. His mind is not blown by the environment. And it shows.
So, I am out of the business of doubting him. He has taught me a valuable lesson that took almost 10,000 hours to learn. Sometimes, the name does matter. And no matter how much time you spend on your opinions, some of them are going to be dead wrong.
Friday, January 13, 2012
The Play After The Catch
This week marked the 30th anniversary of one of the single most famous moments in the history of our game of football. As any Cowboys fan recalls, January 10, 1982 was the day of "The Catch" in Candlestick Park where Joe Montana found Dwight Clark in the back of the end zone with Everson Walls attempting to lunge and stop this moment in time which defined both franchises in the 1980's in their respective cities.
The 49ers had gone 13-3 in 1981, after 3 seasons where they combined for 10 wins total (2 wins in 1978, 2 in 1979, and 6 in 1980). Meanwhile, the Cowboys had won 35 games in those 3 previous years (12, 11, and 12) and had put up another 12 win season in 1981. These were two teams on a collision course at Candlestick the entire season long it seemed, but the Cowboys were still the team that most thought would win this game. The 49ers were home, but really, who were the 49ers in 1981? Just an upstart, not that unlike the team that will host New Orleans on Saturday in 2012.
Everyone remembers the catch by Clark and the throw from Montana. It would send the 49ers on their way to dominate the 1980s and it would start a stretch of 18 years in which the 49ers would win at least 10 games on 17 occasions - during a stretch where they went 5 for 5 in Super Bowl appearances.
But, what seems to elude the memory of many is that the catch was made with 0:51 left on the clock. Trailing 28-27, the Cowboys had the ball and needed only a field goal from the reliable kicker, Rafeal Septien. What would happen next would not only define the fates of the teams involved, but also the legacies of two of main players in the game.
On the very first pass of the final Cowboys drive, starting at the Dallas 25 and with 0:47 left, QB Danny White dropped back to pass and threw a dart to Drew Pearson on a "dig" route at midfield. The throw required precision as it threaded the needle between the corner and safety perfectly to hit Pearson at midfield and in stride. Rookie cornerback Eric Wright was in a trail position, but was able to get his right arm under the collar of Pearson and dragged him down to the ground at the 49ers 44 yard line.
His one armed tackle arguably saved a touchdown, and a one-play answer to the drive by Montana. A score would have then put the Cowboys into Super Bowl 16 against the Bengals and history would have changed forever. Replays showed that Dwight Hicks, the 49ers free safety had a great angle to bring down Pearson inside the 40, but we will never know if that would have happened or if the announcers were right, that Wright saved a sure touchdown.
Regardless, the Cowboys still had 0:39 to work with, and the ball less than 10 yards out of field goal range. From the 49ers 44, White dropped back to pass again, but an inside stunt from the 49ers defensive line matched Lawrence Pillers up against Cowboys right guard, Kurt Peterson. Peterson was over-powered, thrown aside, and Pillers sacked White and stripped the ball. Jim Stuckey recovered the ball for San Francisco and the game was won for the 49ers and they were on their way to Pontiac Michigan for Super Bowl 16.
And in that moment in time, the day was saved for the Niners and the Cowboys had lost their 2nd of 3 straight NFC Championship Games.
One can only wonder, what was done to the legacies of Danny White and Drew Pearson with that one play. For White, a player who started 92 games for the Cowboys at QB and won 62 of them, he would be forever known as a "2nd-tier" QB between Staubach and Aikman, despite winning a lot of games in the regular season and 6 playoff games. Years later, Tony Romo would be compared to him rather than the legends who won Super Bowls. But, had he won that game and carried his team into the Super Bowl, perhaps he would have a better place saved for him in Cowboys' lore.
Meanwhile, there is no real great reason that Drew Pearson has been out of the Hall of Fame. With his numbers and his moments in the post season that defined greatness, he has a resume that is limitless. He absolutely should be in Canton, but for whatever reason, he was left out when the shrines were built to honor those from his era. One can only imagine what that catch and that moment would have done for his legend. It would have ranked up there with his Hail Mary moment and his performance in Atlanta in the 1980 playoffs as his greatest hits and would have made him an automatic entry into the Hall of Fame.
The point to all of this is that White and Pearson did what they could. If Walls could get his fingers on that pass or Peterson could have held off Pillers, the game would have been won. It demonstrated the hands of fate that a QB and a WR have no control over, and yet, they must forever be remembered as "losing those games". Even in individual honors, it is truly a team sport.
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Here are some playoff picks for the weekend:
Saturday -
New Orleans at San Francisco: This contest involves the great discussion of a wonderful offense against a solid defense. The 49ers are better than most will admit, as they have beaten a host of playoff teams this season, and the Saints give us pause when they leave the friendly confines of the Superdome. The question is whether the front 7 of the Niners can disrupt the multiple-faceted attack of the Saints for 3 hours and generate enough offense of their own in their short passing game and pounding the rock with a big, physical offensive line. This could be a real war and a very entertaining game. In the end, I like the Saints, but I believe they will be stretched to the outer limits of their abilities to advance. Saints 24, 49ers 20.
Denver at New England: Ah yes, what could be the most watched divisional round playoff game in NFL history will explode for all to see on Saturday night in prime time. Everyone knows that strange things occur on Saturday night in the NFL playoffs, but it will take more than the kickoff time of this game to save Denver. They are a truly wonderful story and the Tim Tebow narrative is fascinating on a number of levels, but the idea that they can beat a wounded Steelers team at home is a way different challenge to slowing down Tom Brady and the Patriots at their place. Also factor in that the Patriots have been a very poor playoff team at him in the last several years, requiring them to hear this again and again stack the odds more against Denver. And that doesn't even weigh the short work week and the cross-country travel. It has been a nice run for the Broncos, but it won't advance past this game. Patriots 31, Broncos 17.
Sunday -
Houston at Baltimore: The wonderful journey of what is left of the Houston Texans puts them 60 minutes from the AFC Championship Game. Despite crippling injury issues hitting the squad, they pounded the Bengals last week in front of their adoring public. Now, they face a team that had a QB that certainly seems shaky and vulnerable in many situations, but has the luxury of playing with a lead on most occasions. How TJ Yates is able to make plays down the field to Andre Johnson will tell us a bit about how this game plays out, but more importantly to the pace of the game will be how Houston can move the football on the ground. I am tempted to take Houston here, but that would be underselling the Baltimore defense - something that is not to be done unless there is a very dynamic QB taking them down. And there is not. Baltimore 20, Houston 16.
New York at Green Bay: Finally, the game that has had so many people on the underdog, that they might actually be the popular choice. There is no doubt that the Giants have a few things working for them here. 1) they have strengths where the Packers have weaknesses. The Giants DL against the Packers OL is a major mismatch, and the Giants passing game should be able to accomplish some things against the Packers secondary and lack of pass rush (provided Dom Capers doesn't get there with the blitz like he did last post season so well). Also, the Giants have the swagger of having won in Lambeau in 2007 with many players remaining. But, the trendy pick is also a pick that ignores the wild inconsistencies of the Giants this year and the fact that Aaron Rodgers has not thrown a multiple-interception game all year. With that and home field, I believe form holds here: Green Bay 31, New York 24.
Enjoy the games, after this weekend there are only 3 more games until September.
The 49ers had gone 13-3 in 1981, after 3 seasons where they combined for 10 wins total (2 wins in 1978, 2 in 1979, and 6 in 1980). Meanwhile, the Cowboys had won 35 games in those 3 previous years (12, 11, and 12) and had put up another 12 win season in 1981. These were two teams on a collision course at Candlestick the entire season long it seemed, but the Cowboys were still the team that most thought would win this game. The 49ers were home, but really, who were the 49ers in 1981? Just an upstart, not that unlike the team that will host New Orleans on Saturday in 2012.
Everyone remembers the catch by Clark and the throw from Montana. It would send the 49ers on their way to dominate the 1980s and it would start a stretch of 18 years in which the 49ers would win at least 10 games on 17 occasions - during a stretch where they went 5 for 5 in Super Bowl appearances.
But, what seems to elude the memory of many is that the catch was made with 0:51 left on the clock. Trailing 28-27, the Cowboys had the ball and needed only a field goal from the reliable kicker, Rafeal Septien. What would happen next would not only define the fates of the teams involved, but also the legacies of two of main players in the game.
On the very first pass of the final Cowboys drive, starting at the Dallas 25 and with 0:47 left, QB Danny White dropped back to pass and threw a dart to Drew Pearson on a "dig" route at midfield. The throw required precision as it threaded the needle between the corner and safety perfectly to hit Pearson at midfield and in stride. Rookie cornerback Eric Wright was in a trail position, but was able to get his right arm under the collar of Pearson and dragged him down to the ground at the 49ers 44 yard line.
His one armed tackle arguably saved a touchdown, and a one-play answer to the drive by Montana. A score would have then put the Cowboys into Super Bowl 16 against the Bengals and history would have changed forever. Replays showed that Dwight Hicks, the 49ers free safety had a great angle to bring down Pearson inside the 40, but we will never know if that would have happened or if the announcers were right, that Wright saved a sure touchdown.
Regardless, the Cowboys still had 0:39 to work with, and the ball less than 10 yards out of field goal range. From the 49ers 44, White dropped back to pass again, but an inside stunt from the 49ers defensive line matched Lawrence Pillers up against Cowboys right guard, Kurt Peterson. Peterson was over-powered, thrown aside, and Pillers sacked White and stripped the ball. Jim Stuckey recovered the ball for San Francisco and the game was won for the 49ers and they were on their way to Pontiac Michigan for Super Bowl 16.
And in that moment in time, the day was saved for the Niners and the Cowboys had lost their 2nd of 3 straight NFC Championship Games.
One can only wonder, what was done to the legacies of Danny White and Drew Pearson with that one play. For White, a player who started 92 games for the Cowboys at QB and won 62 of them, he would be forever known as a "2nd-tier" QB between Staubach and Aikman, despite winning a lot of games in the regular season and 6 playoff games. Years later, Tony Romo would be compared to him rather than the legends who won Super Bowls. But, had he won that game and carried his team into the Super Bowl, perhaps he would have a better place saved for him in Cowboys' lore.
Meanwhile, there is no real great reason that Drew Pearson has been out of the Hall of Fame. With his numbers and his moments in the post season that defined greatness, he has a resume that is limitless. He absolutely should be in Canton, but for whatever reason, he was left out when the shrines were built to honor those from his era. One can only imagine what that catch and that moment would have done for his legend. It would have ranked up there with his Hail Mary moment and his performance in Atlanta in the 1980 playoffs as his greatest hits and would have made him an automatic entry into the Hall of Fame.
The point to all of this is that White and Pearson did what they could. If Walls could get his fingers on that pass or Peterson could have held off Pillers, the game would have been won. It demonstrated the hands of fate that a QB and a WR have no control over, and yet, they must forever be remembered as "losing those games". Even in individual honors, it is truly a team sport.
=====
Here are some playoff picks for the weekend:
Saturday -
New Orleans at San Francisco: This contest involves the great discussion of a wonderful offense against a solid defense. The 49ers are better than most will admit, as they have beaten a host of playoff teams this season, and the Saints give us pause when they leave the friendly confines of the Superdome. The question is whether the front 7 of the Niners can disrupt the multiple-faceted attack of the Saints for 3 hours and generate enough offense of their own in their short passing game and pounding the rock with a big, physical offensive line. This could be a real war and a very entertaining game. In the end, I like the Saints, but I believe they will be stretched to the outer limits of their abilities to advance. Saints 24, 49ers 20.
Denver at New England: Ah yes, what could be the most watched divisional round playoff game in NFL history will explode for all to see on Saturday night in prime time. Everyone knows that strange things occur on Saturday night in the NFL playoffs, but it will take more than the kickoff time of this game to save Denver. They are a truly wonderful story and the Tim Tebow narrative is fascinating on a number of levels, but the idea that they can beat a wounded Steelers team at home is a way different challenge to slowing down Tom Brady and the Patriots at their place. Also factor in that the Patriots have been a very poor playoff team at him in the last several years, requiring them to hear this again and again stack the odds more against Denver. And that doesn't even weigh the short work week and the cross-country travel. It has been a nice run for the Broncos, but it won't advance past this game. Patriots 31, Broncos 17.
Sunday -
Houston at Baltimore: The wonderful journey of what is left of the Houston Texans puts them 60 minutes from the AFC Championship Game. Despite crippling injury issues hitting the squad, they pounded the Bengals last week in front of their adoring public. Now, they face a team that had a QB that certainly seems shaky and vulnerable in many situations, but has the luxury of playing with a lead on most occasions. How TJ Yates is able to make plays down the field to Andre Johnson will tell us a bit about how this game plays out, but more importantly to the pace of the game will be how Houston can move the football on the ground. I am tempted to take Houston here, but that would be underselling the Baltimore defense - something that is not to be done unless there is a very dynamic QB taking them down. And there is not. Baltimore 20, Houston 16.
New York at Green Bay: Finally, the game that has had so many people on the underdog, that they might actually be the popular choice. There is no doubt that the Giants have a few things working for them here. 1) they have strengths where the Packers have weaknesses. The Giants DL against the Packers OL is a major mismatch, and the Giants passing game should be able to accomplish some things against the Packers secondary and lack of pass rush (provided Dom Capers doesn't get there with the blitz like he did last post season so well). Also, the Giants have the swagger of having won in Lambeau in 2007 with many players remaining. But, the trendy pick is also a pick that ignores the wild inconsistencies of the Giants this year and the fact that Aaron Rodgers has not thrown a multiple-interception game all year. With that and home field, I believe form holds here: Green Bay 31, New York 24.
Enjoy the games, after this weekend there are only 3 more games until September.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Why did Wade Phillips Work In Houston?
DIscussing defenses around the league is a fun thing to do this time of year on all mediums. On Monday, it was time to sort through why the New York Giants seemed to have so many great defensive lineman and a relentless pass rush that did not depend on one player (answer: they have committed to building a core of depth in New York and they have been successful in doing so).
I have been asked by a few different readers to examine what is going on down in Houston, with Wade Phillips and the Texans installing an entirely new scheme to their personnel and finding great success in year one. If I am going to allow Rob Ryan the mulligan on account of not having an off-season program to make sure everyone was comfortable with the scheme and familiar with what was expected of them, then certainly Houston could have the same excuse for moving from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense.
In fact, much of the off-season, the narrative in Houston was based on the idea that they had players - most notably one of the very best players in the NFL, Mario Williams - that would not fit the 3-4 scheme. He was exceptional as a 4-3 defensive end, but perhaps without a home in Phillips' new scheme. He weighed nearly 300 pounds, and as much versatility as the OLB position required seemed to suggest that this move would have been crazy. But, they tried it with brave faces.
In the Texans 5th game of the season, at home against the Raiders, Williams grabbed his 5th sack of the year by getting to Jason Campbell. In doing so, he ripped his left pectoral muscle and was lost for the season. The Houston equivalent of DeMarcus Ware was going on injured reserve and now Wade Phillips and his staff would have to navigate with both a new scheme and a season-ending injury to their best pass rusher. Surely, as the media quickly typed, this would be the start of a very rocky learning experience.
And clearly, nobody in the media knows what they are talking about. How do we explain this?
Houston Texans - Defense 2010-2011
Not just improvement in every single category, but substantial improvement in every single category. Now, there are some mitigating circumstances that are beyond their control, such as no meetings against Peyton Manning this year, but still, that across-the-board improvement clearly shows a team that won 10 games and their division despite losing their Quarterback and best defender for the season.
So, how does a team improve in every category like this in one year? Especially when switching to a completely scheme and having no offseason to work through all of the bugs? And then, losing their best player within one month of the new season?
When Frank Bush was fired at the end of 2010, Pro Football talk wrote the following: there wasn’t a soul that watched the Texans defense this season that didn’t know that this move was coming. They finished 30th in yards allowed, 29th in points allowed and made quarterbacks from Tim Tebow to Bruce Gradkowski to Kerry Collins look like All-Pros at various points this season. Of course, all those numbers are just part of the reason why this news raises no eyebrows.
It seemed clear to those who did not follow the team closely that adding Wade Phillips and his scheme that helped get him fired in Dallas would end poorly in Houston, too.
And that is when we were reminded again that players play. And when you wonder why a team is as good or bad as it is, you should spend most of your time looking at what kind of players are being put on the field.
Before we go on, let's look at the same graphic from above to show how Dallas did in 2010-2011.
Dallas Cowboys - Defense 2010-2011
Perhaps the most important statistic to notice here is that while points allowed and sacks were both improved, the Rob Ryan defense actually generated less takeaways than the 2010 defense that most people would agree spent the last half of October and the first part of November not even exerting much effort or energy.
Here is what I wrote on the topic of Rob Ryan's 1st season last week:
Put another way, of the top 17 Cowboys defensive players (in terms of snaps taken) that were a part of the 2010 disaster, 15 of them were back on the defense this season. Igor Olshansky (573 snaps) and Stephen Bowen (554) were the only non-returners at defensive end.
The Cowboys tried the ultimate experiment of changing a coach, but keeping the personnel almost completely static. Everyone was back, and aside from the two Cleveland Browns who were brought over (Elam and Coleman) the Cowboys were believing that Rob Ryan could simply deploy them differently.
Meanwhile in Houston, their defense in 2010 was thought of as an even bigger disaster. They were at the bottom of the league in all sorts of defensive metrics and decided if they were ever going to win their division and compete in the playoffs, they would have to solve their defensive issues.
And as one takes a look at how they became such an impressive defense in one year, there are a few in the Dallas media that point to Wade Phillips as the difference. Phillips is certainly a capable coordinator, so this is not to dispute that his scheme works in the NFL. But, he surely used all of his tricks in Dallas, and they weren't working. So, why did those same tricks work in Houston? Or did they?
A closer look reveals that in 2011, the Houston Texans overhauled their defense in one short off-season. They are in the final 8 of the NFL Playoffs and have that coveted playoff win in their back pocket as they head to Baltimore to go for another.
Of the spine of that defense, there were 8 players that played more than 700 snaps this season. Quin Glover, Brian Cushing, and Antonio Smith were the 3 holdovers from the Frank Bush crew that finished in the bottom of the league. However, the other 5 players were all brought different pieces that provided Wade Phillips with proper personnel to change the defense to a 3-4.
One of those 5 players was the return of Connor Barwin who suffered a major injury in Week 1 of 2010. His return from his nasty ankle dislocation gave them a perfect outside LB edge rusher to snap right into Wade's plans. His 12 sacks and 18 QB hits combined for 30 different occasions where he hit the quarterback - more than any Dallas defender - including Ware (28 - 20 sacks, 8 QB hits).
The other 4 major defensive contributors all arrived in the spring and summer of 2011. And all 4 required major investments on the part of the Texans. They used free agency and the draft, and they decided to get Phillips players that could make a significant difference right away.
First in the draft, Houston poured all of its resources into the defense. In the 1st Round, they used pick #11 on Wisconsin DE JJ Watt. This, many agree, was the pick the Cowboys would snag if Tyron Smith was not left on the board. The Cowboys made the pick that they most needed, but Watt gave Houston a DE in the 3-4 that causes havoc every Sunday. According to www.profootballfocus.com he graded as Houston's best defender and was able to get to the QB for 7 sacks and 11 QB hits, while standing up in the run game.
Then, in the 2nd round, took OLB Brooks Reed from Arizona at pick #42 (2 picks after the Cowboys had grabbed LB Bruce Carter at #40). Reed was thought to be depth and insurance because the Texans were planning on Barwin and Mario Williams at OLB, but when Mario was lost for the year, Reed took over. He then played 799 snaps and totaled 6 sacks as a rookie. Later in the 2nd round, the Texans traded up with New England to take a cornerback from Miami, Brandon Harris. Harris has played quite sparingly in 2011, but at the age of 21, he has plenty of time to contribute.
In the summer, free agency was the next factor and the Texans used it to make a major strike and to fix their secondary. They signed 27-year old corner, Johnathan Joseph from the Bengals. This was a major expenditure of $48.75 million dollars over 5 years, including $23.5 million guaranteed.
That very same day, they targeted a free safety from Chicago, Danieal Manning. They inked his services at the price of $20 million over $4 seasons, including $9 million guaranteed. He provided kick returning and safety play, and despite missing a month with a fractured fibula, he still played 743 snaps.
So, where do we credit this major improvement and defensive success in Houston? Phillips? The Draft with Watt and Reed? Free agency with Joseph and Manning?
I imagine in Houston it doesn't matter where the credit goes. They covered all of the bases and now have a defense that swarmed Andy Dalton and the Bengals and never let them up for air.
Players play and coaches coach. But, from my seat, I suggest that Houston's off season strategy put them in a spot where they could suffer a major injury and still have their best defensive season ever.
I have been asked by a few different readers to examine what is going on down in Houston, with Wade Phillips and the Texans installing an entirely new scheme to their personnel and finding great success in year one. If I am going to allow Rob Ryan the mulligan on account of not having an off-season program to make sure everyone was comfortable with the scheme and familiar with what was expected of them, then certainly Houston could have the same excuse for moving from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense.
In fact, much of the off-season, the narrative in Houston was based on the idea that they had players - most notably one of the very best players in the NFL, Mario Williams - that would not fit the 3-4 scheme. He was exceptional as a 4-3 defensive end, but perhaps without a home in Phillips' new scheme. He weighed nearly 300 pounds, and as much versatility as the OLB position required seemed to suggest that this move would have been crazy. But, they tried it with brave faces.
In the Texans 5th game of the season, at home against the Raiders, Williams grabbed his 5th sack of the year by getting to Jason Campbell. In doing so, he ripped his left pectoral muscle and was lost for the season. The Houston equivalent of DeMarcus Ware was going on injured reserve and now Wade Phillips and his staff would have to navigate with both a new scheme and a season-ending injury to their best pass rusher. Surely, as the media quickly typed, this would be the start of a very rocky learning experience.
And clearly, nobody in the media knows what they are talking about. How do we explain this?
Houston Texans - Defense 2010-2011
| Year | PPG Vs | Sacks | Takeaways |
| 2010 | 26.7 (29th) | 30 (23rd) | 18 (30th) |
| 2011 | 17.4 (4th) | 44 (6th) | 27 (12th) |
Not just improvement in every single category, but substantial improvement in every single category. Now, there are some mitigating circumstances that are beyond their control, such as no meetings against Peyton Manning this year, but still, that across-the-board improvement clearly shows a team that won 10 games and their division despite losing their Quarterback and best defender for the season.
So, how does a team improve in every category like this in one year? Especially when switching to a completely scheme and having no offseason to work through all of the bugs? And then, losing their best player within one month of the new season?
When Frank Bush was fired at the end of 2010, Pro Football talk wrote the following: there wasn’t a soul that watched the Texans defense this season that didn’t know that this move was coming. They finished 30th in yards allowed, 29th in points allowed and made quarterbacks from Tim Tebow to Bruce Gradkowski to Kerry Collins look like All-Pros at various points this season. Of course, all those numbers are just part of the reason why this news raises no eyebrows.
It seemed clear to those who did not follow the team closely that adding Wade Phillips and his scheme that helped get him fired in Dallas would end poorly in Houston, too.
And that is when we were reminded again that players play. And when you wonder why a team is as good or bad as it is, you should spend most of your time looking at what kind of players are being put on the field.
Before we go on, let's look at the same graphic from above to show how Dallas did in 2010-2011.
Dallas Cowboys - Defense 2010-2011
| Year | PPG Vs | Sacks | Takeaways |
| 2010 | 27.3 (31st) | 35 (16th) | 30 (8th) |
| 2011 | 21.7 (16th) | 42 (7th) | 25 (16th) |
Perhaps the most important statistic to notice here is that while points allowed and sacks were both improved, the Rob Ryan defense actually generated less takeaways than the 2010 defense that most people would agree spent the last half of October and the first part of November not even exerting much effort or energy.
Here is what I wrote on the topic of Rob Ryan's 1st season last week:
the Cowboys offered almost no personnel changes in 2011. The marginal swap of Kenyon Coleman for Igor Olshansky at DE (which is one veteran replacement level DE for another) and Abram Elam for Alan Ball which appeared to be an upgrade, albeit a incremental upgrade rather than the big dollar upgrades that were available last summer at safety.
In the draft, they offered little to know defensive support. The one potential impact addition would have been in the 2nd round, but the Cowboys took LB Bruce Carter who was returning from a major knee surgery, and he wouldn't be ready until mid November. Essentially, there was no support at all from the 2011 draft, despite the issues the Cowboys faced in 2010 defensively.
So, everyone was invited back. No free agency strikes. No draft support. No dollar investment in the team aside from discount purchases of players of the Cleveland defense who were not heavily sought after in the league.
But, in the end, I think Rob Ryan did as much with the same defense that he was left with as anyone could reasonably be expected to do with no offseason.
What we need to recognize is that he was not given enough to work with. He still had mediocre secondary personnel and one legit pass rusher. Until that changes, bring in any coordinator you want. They may not be as brash as Rob Ryan, but I don't anticipate that they will be able to make this defense elite, either, until some elite players are brought in.
Put another way, of the top 17 Cowboys defensive players (in terms of snaps taken) that were a part of the 2010 disaster, 15 of them were back on the defense this season. Igor Olshansky (573 snaps) and Stephen Bowen (554) were the only non-returners at defensive end.
The Cowboys tried the ultimate experiment of changing a coach, but keeping the personnel almost completely static. Everyone was back, and aside from the two Cleveland Browns who were brought over (Elam and Coleman) the Cowboys were believing that Rob Ryan could simply deploy them differently.
Meanwhile in Houston, their defense in 2010 was thought of as an even bigger disaster. They were at the bottom of the league in all sorts of defensive metrics and decided if they were ever going to win their division and compete in the playoffs, they would have to solve their defensive issues.
And as one takes a look at how they became such an impressive defense in one year, there are a few in the Dallas media that point to Wade Phillips as the difference. Phillips is certainly a capable coordinator, so this is not to dispute that his scheme works in the NFL. But, he surely used all of his tricks in Dallas, and they weren't working. So, why did those same tricks work in Houston? Or did they?
A closer look reveals that in 2011, the Houston Texans overhauled their defense in one short off-season. They are in the final 8 of the NFL Playoffs and have that coveted playoff win in their back pocket as they head to Baltimore to go for another.
Of the spine of that defense, there were 8 players that played more than 700 snaps this season. Quin Glover, Brian Cushing, and Antonio Smith were the 3 holdovers from the Frank Bush crew that finished in the bottom of the league. However, the other 5 players were all brought different pieces that provided Wade Phillips with proper personnel to change the defense to a 3-4.
One of those 5 players was the return of Connor Barwin who suffered a major injury in Week 1 of 2010. His return from his nasty ankle dislocation gave them a perfect outside LB edge rusher to snap right into Wade's plans. His 12 sacks and 18 QB hits combined for 30 different occasions where he hit the quarterback - more than any Dallas defender - including Ware (28 - 20 sacks, 8 QB hits).
The other 4 major defensive contributors all arrived in the spring and summer of 2011. And all 4 required major investments on the part of the Texans. They used free agency and the draft, and they decided to get Phillips players that could make a significant difference right away.
First in the draft, Houston poured all of its resources into the defense. In the 1st Round, they used pick #11 on Wisconsin DE JJ Watt. This, many agree, was the pick the Cowboys would snag if Tyron Smith was not left on the board. The Cowboys made the pick that they most needed, but Watt gave Houston a DE in the 3-4 that causes havoc every Sunday. According to www.profootballfocus.com he graded as Houston's best defender and was able to get to the QB for 7 sacks and 11 QB hits, while standing up in the run game.
Then, in the 2nd round, took OLB Brooks Reed from Arizona at pick #42 (2 picks after the Cowboys had grabbed LB Bruce Carter at #40). Reed was thought to be depth and insurance because the Texans were planning on Barwin and Mario Williams at OLB, but when Mario was lost for the year, Reed took over. He then played 799 snaps and totaled 6 sacks as a rookie. Later in the 2nd round, the Texans traded up with New England to take a cornerback from Miami, Brandon Harris. Harris has played quite sparingly in 2011, but at the age of 21, he has plenty of time to contribute.
In the summer, free agency was the next factor and the Texans used it to make a major strike and to fix their secondary. They signed 27-year old corner, Johnathan Joseph from the Bengals. This was a major expenditure of $48.75 million dollars over 5 years, including $23.5 million guaranteed.
That very same day, they targeted a free safety from Chicago, Danieal Manning. They inked his services at the price of $20 million over $4 seasons, including $9 million guaranteed. He provided kick returning and safety play, and despite missing a month with a fractured fibula, he still played 743 snaps.
So, where do we credit this major improvement and defensive success in Houston? Phillips? The Draft with Watt and Reed? Free agency with Joseph and Manning?
I imagine in Houston it doesn't matter where the credit goes. They covered all of the bases and now have a defense that swarmed Andy Dalton and the Bengals and never let them up for air.
Players play and coaches coach. But, from my seat, I suggest that Houston's off season strategy put them in a spot where they could suffer a major injury and still have their best defensive season ever.
Monday, January 09, 2012
A Difference in Philosophy
It is extremely difficult to watch the NFL Playoffs a week after the Dallas Cowboys crash-and-burn routine ended without thinking about them at every turn. Here is a former Cowboys player, and here is a former Cowboys coach. Over here is another QB who has pulled even with Tony Romo for career playoff wins (TJ Yates) and then the next day, here is even another QB who has pulled even with Romo for career playoff wins (Tim Tebow).
But, no game makes you think about the Cowboys all afternoon quite like watching the New York Giants.
Not only because of the way they dismissed the Cowboys from the 2011 season, but because they are rivals. There is venom. There is jealousy. And there is a distinct difference in philosophy about how to build a playoff-ready power.
We can certainly go on and on about how Ernie Accorsi and Jerry Reese see football differently than Jerry Jones in many regards, but let's stick to what jumps off the screen when you flip on the Giants this time of year.
They are distinctly led and designed around their defensive front. The defensive front is why they won the Super Bowl in the 2007 season - despite rather mediocre play in other departments of their team. And it is that same defensive front that gives them a puncher's chance to defeat the 15-1 Green Bay Packers this coming Sunday at Lambeau Field, just like they did in 2007.
You watch the defensive line of the Giants for any period of time and you see it is not necessarily a front that is built around one player simply being a superstar, but rather a strength-in-numbers philosophy that can withstand an injury or a contract dispute or most importantly, the aging process.
A franchise cannot afford to be crippled when its alpha male, Michael Strahan takes his 141.5 career sacks and moves on to the television studios that retirement bring. His final game was Super Bowl 42, and his legacy was secured when the Giants hassled and hammered Tom Brady all day long in that momentous Super Bowl upset.
And they were not crippled. They were prepared. Because the Giants understand that the line of scrimmage is the easiest way to have success in late seasons scenarios and they also understand that the only way to guarantee that sort of success is to make it a priority every off-season when the franchise must decide where to allocate resources. No franchise has more sacks since 2003 than the New York Giants (379) and it is no accident. It is deliberate and careful persistence in talent collection.
Let's compare the two organizations asset distribution to the defensive front to understand why one team seems to succeed because of its defensive line and the other seems to succeed often in spite of it. Given the difference in scheme, we will try to compare apples to apples and allow OLBs from Dallas if they are primary edge rushers and leave Middle LBs out of the discussion for both sides. For the sake of discussion, we will label any pick in the Top 4 rounds as "premium picks".
First, the Dallas Cowboys use of premium picks since 2003 on the defensive front:
Now, the same chart for the New York Giants
That is a staggering difference in allocation of assets into a defensive front. Ware is the great equalizer in many regards, as the Cowboys have still accumulated an amazing number of sacks given this discrepancy, and finding Jay Ratliff late has been a great help. But, the Giants wanted to build this generation around their defensive front - like the organization did in the 1980's and 1990's with Bill Parcells and GM George Young. In fact, now, given the use of so many draft picks, it makes you ponder their free agency objective as well.
New York Giants Free Agent DL Signings:
That's right. After spending so many high, premium picks on DL, they also decided before 2009 that they wanted to find even more strength in numbers with the free agent targets of 2 more players - one a reasonably high pick from Dallas.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys countered with this:
Here again we see that the Cowboys use of free agency goes back to 2005 when Ferguson, Ware, Canty, and Spears were all added in the same spring when Parcells was ready to fully commit to the 3-4. Since then, the draft and free agency have almost completely ignored the front or looked for red-tag discounts.
Jerry Jones and Wade Phillips bragged about finding Igor Olshansky as a perfect replacement for Chris Canty. Nobody would argue that Canty's New York offer would have been mocked had Dallas decided to match it. And it is likely nobody would argue that Canty is entirely overpaid. Canty was not being asked to dominate a game, he was strengthening an already-strong unit. However, Olshansky made almost no impact whatsoever during his stay in Dallas, and frankly, Coleman's year was largely difficult to detect as well.
Observers often suggest that the DE spot in the 3-4 is not designed for play-making, but in Houston (JJ Watt and Antonio Smith), San Francisco (Justin Smith), Green Bay (Cullen Jenkins for several seasons) and New England (Richard Seymour for years) would beg to differ. Houston is especially notable given that Wade Phillips is asking his DEs to do what he asked Olshansky and Spears to do here - but with largely different results.
In the last month, we have seen the Giants DL over-run the Cowboys OL twice (6 sacks last week in a winner-take-all scenario), the Jets, and they stuffed the Falcons in a playoff game for 4 full Quarters. Atlanta only pieced together 2 drives all day long of any substance, and both of them ended when Matt Ryan couldn't move the Defensive front on a 4th and 1. Those failures certainly reminded anyone in these parts of Tony Romo trying to accomplish the same thing one week earlier in the same end of Met Life Stadium.
These are game-changing, season-saving plays. And they don't happen by accident. Of the 8 players the Giants rotated in on their defensive front, 7 of them were major investments. Tuck, Joseph, Pierre-Paul, Kiwanuka, and Umenyiora were high picks and large contracts. Canty and Bernard were well compensated free agent acquisitions. Only Dave Tollefson, who plays the least of the 8, was a bargain find. The Giants made sure that no matter what sort of injuries or contract issues presented themselves, they would never be left without enough talent to compete. And if all 8 are present and accounted for, they could assemble a rotation of such depth and quality that in a 4 Quarter battle, they would always have a substantial impact. Marvin Austin, their 2011 2nd round pick from North Carolina, is another 310 lb interior beast who tore a pectoral muscle in training camp and will enjoy a redshirt year learning from the best.
Meanwhile, in Dallas, they have to feel that their defensive front has betrayed them too often. If not Ware, then almost nobody troubles a QB without the aid of a blitz. There is very little along the lines of a quality rotation, and there has been no strong challenges from young players who are looking to win jobs. The reason for that is rather explainable, as there has been no priority investment in the DL in years. The last major thrust was the pick of Spencer in 2007, a move that they are now pondering moving on from as he hits free agency with little behind them to step in.
They have felt there have simply been too many other places to address on the roster on draft day. But, with each passing year, they put more and more on the shoulders of those few difference makers that they have and wear and tear is adding up. Word is that they would have been delighted to grab JJ Watt at #9 this past spring, but with Tyron Smith available, and the offensive line in shambles, they did what needed to be done.
The Giants now head to Green Bay, and the Cowboys locker-room has been vacated a week ago. The defensive front is not the only reason the two teams are where they are, but it is the most evident that comes to mind. The Giants likely have too many holes elsewhere on their roster to duplicate their Super Bowl run of 2007, but they can not be counted out.
Thousands of miles away, the Cowboys fan-base looks on and wonders how many players it would take to put on a Doomsday-caliber show like they have watched in New York over the last few weeks.
More than a few.
But, no game makes you think about the Cowboys all afternoon quite like watching the New York Giants.
Not only because of the way they dismissed the Cowboys from the 2011 season, but because they are rivals. There is venom. There is jealousy. And there is a distinct difference in philosophy about how to build a playoff-ready power.
We can certainly go on and on about how Ernie Accorsi and Jerry Reese see football differently than Jerry Jones in many regards, but let's stick to what jumps off the screen when you flip on the Giants this time of year.
They are distinctly led and designed around their defensive front. The defensive front is why they won the Super Bowl in the 2007 season - despite rather mediocre play in other departments of their team. And it is that same defensive front that gives them a puncher's chance to defeat the 15-1 Green Bay Packers this coming Sunday at Lambeau Field, just like they did in 2007.
You watch the defensive line of the Giants for any period of time and you see it is not necessarily a front that is built around one player simply being a superstar, but rather a strength-in-numbers philosophy that can withstand an injury or a contract dispute or most importantly, the aging process.
A franchise cannot afford to be crippled when its alpha male, Michael Strahan takes his 141.5 career sacks and moves on to the television studios that retirement bring. His final game was Super Bowl 42, and his legacy was secured when the Giants hassled and hammered Tom Brady all day long in that momentous Super Bowl upset.
And they were not crippled. They were prepared. Because the Giants understand that the line of scrimmage is the easiest way to have success in late seasons scenarios and they also understand that the only way to guarantee that sort of success is to make it a priority every off-season when the franchise must decide where to allocate resources. No franchise has more sacks since 2003 than the New York Giants (379) and it is no accident. It is deliberate and careful persistence in talent collection.
Let's compare the two organizations asset distribution to the defensive front to understand why one team seems to succeed because of its defensive line and the other seems to succeed often in spite of it. Given the difference in scheme, we will try to compare apples to apples and allow OLBs from Dallas if they are primary edge rushers and leave Middle LBs out of the discussion for both sides. For the sake of discussion, we will label any pick in the Top 4 rounds as "premium picks".
First, the Dallas Cowboys use of premium picks since 2003 on the defensive front:
| Year | Pick | Name |
| 2005 | 1/11 | DeMarcus Ware |
| 2005 | 1/20 | Marcus Spears |
| 2005 | 4/132 | Chris Canty |
| 2006 | 3/92 | Jason Hatcher |
| 2007 | 1/26 | Anthony Spencer |
Now, the same chart for the New York Giants
| Year | Pick | Name |
| 2003 | 1/25 | William Joseph |
| 2003 | 2/56 | Osi Umenyiora |
| 2005 | 3/74 | Justin Tuck |
| 2006 | 1/32 | Mathias Kiwanuka |
| 2006 | 4/124 | Barry Cofield |
| 2007 | 3/81 | Jay Alford |
| 2010 | 1/15 | Jason Pierre Paul |
| 2010 | 2/46 | Linval Joseph |
| 2011 | 2/52 | Marvin Austin |
That is a staggering difference in allocation of assets into a defensive front. Ware is the great equalizer in many regards, as the Cowboys have still accumulated an amazing number of sacks given this discrepancy, and finding Jay Ratliff late has been a great help. But, the Giants wanted to build this generation around their defensive front - like the organization did in the 1980's and 1990's with Bill Parcells and GM George Young. In fact, now, given the use of so many draft picks, it makes you ponder their free agency objective as well.
New York Giants Free Agent DL Signings:
| Year | Contract | Name |
| 2009 | 6/$42m | Chris Canty |
| 2009 | 4/$16m | Rocky Bernard |
That's right. After spending so many high, premium picks on DL, they also decided before 2009 that they wanted to find even more strength in numbers with the free agent targets of 2 more players - one a reasonably high pick from Dallas.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys countered with this:
| Year | Contract | Name |
| 2005 | 5/$21.5m | Jason Ferguson |
| 2009 | 4/$18m | Igor Olshansky |
| 2011 | 2/$3.5m | Kenyon Coleman |
Here again we see that the Cowboys use of free agency goes back to 2005 when Ferguson, Ware, Canty, and Spears were all added in the same spring when Parcells was ready to fully commit to the 3-4. Since then, the draft and free agency have almost completely ignored the front or looked for red-tag discounts.
Jerry Jones and Wade Phillips bragged about finding Igor Olshansky as a perfect replacement for Chris Canty. Nobody would argue that Canty's New York offer would have been mocked had Dallas decided to match it. And it is likely nobody would argue that Canty is entirely overpaid. Canty was not being asked to dominate a game, he was strengthening an already-strong unit. However, Olshansky made almost no impact whatsoever during his stay in Dallas, and frankly, Coleman's year was largely difficult to detect as well.
Observers often suggest that the DE spot in the 3-4 is not designed for play-making, but in Houston (JJ Watt and Antonio Smith), San Francisco (Justin Smith), Green Bay (Cullen Jenkins for several seasons) and New England (Richard Seymour for years) would beg to differ. Houston is especially notable given that Wade Phillips is asking his DEs to do what he asked Olshansky and Spears to do here - but with largely different results.
In the last month, we have seen the Giants DL over-run the Cowboys OL twice (6 sacks last week in a winner-take-all scenario), the Jets, and they stuffed the Falcons in a playoff game for 4 full Quarters. Atlanta only pieced together 2 drives all day long of any substance, and both of them ended when Matt Ryan couldn't move the Defensive front on a 4th and 1. Those failures certainly reminded anyone in these parts of Tony Romo trying to accomplish the same thing one week earlier in the same end of Met Life Stadium.
These are game-changing, season-saving plays. And they don't happen by accident. Of the 8 players the Giants rotated in on their defensive front, 7 of them were major investments. Tuck, Joseph, Pierre-Paul, Kiwanuka, and Umenyiora were high picks and large contracts. Canty and Bernard were well compensated free agent acquisitions. Only Dave Tollefson, who plays the least of the 8, was a bargain find. The Giants made sure that no matter what sort of injuries or contract issues presented themselves, they would never be left without enough talent to compete. And if all 8 are present and accounted for, they could assemble a rotation of such depth and quality that in a 4 Quarter battle, they would always have a substantial impact. Marvin Austin, their 2011 2nd round pick from North Carolina, is another 310 lb interior beast who tore a pectoral muscle in training camp and will enjoy a redshirt year learning from the best.
Meanwhile, in Dallas, they have to feel that their defensive front has betrayed them too often. If not Ware, then almost nobody troubles a QB without the aid of a blitz. There is very little along the lines of a quality rotation, and there has been no strong challenges from young players who are looking to win jobs. The reason for that is rather explainable, as there has been no priority investment in the DL in years. The last major thrust was the pick of Spencer in 2007, a move that they are now pondering moving on from as he hits free agency with little behind them to step in.
They have felt there have simply been too many other places to address on the roster on draft day. But, with each passing year, they put more and more on the shoulders of those few difference makers that they have and wear and tear is adding up. Word is that they would have been delighted to grab JJ Watt at #9 this past spring, but with Tyron Smith available, and the offensive line in shambles, they did what needed to be done.
The Giants now head to Green Bay, and the Cowboys locker-room has been vacated a week ago. The defensive front is not the only reason the two teams are where they are, but it is the most evident that comes to mind. The Giants likely have too many holes elsewhere on their roster to duplicate their Super Bowl run of 2007, but they can not be counted out.
Thousands of miles away, the Cowboys fan-base looks on and wonders how many players it would take to put on a Doomsday-caliber show like they have watched in New York over the last few weeks.
More than a few.
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