Eli Owns Dallas

December 14, 2008 was the last win at Texas Stadium for the Dallas Cowboys franchise. The game was played against Eli Manning and the New York Giants. In that month, December 2008, almost nothing went right for the Cowboys. But, one thing that did was this Sunday Night affair against their bitter rivals.

In that game, the Cowboys battered, bruised, and flat-out beat up Manning to the tune of 8 sacks. DeMarcus Ware had 3. Greg Ellis had 2.5. Bradie James and Chris Canty each had 1, and 2nd year LB Anthony Spencer even picked up one half of a sack. The Cowboys won that game 20-8, over the then Super Bowl Champion Giants, and felt that they had cracked the code on how to beat the younger Manning brother: Beat him up. But, since we have mentioned Texas Stadium and Greg Ellis in the opening 2 paragraphs of this story, it has been a while since that night.

Since then, the two teams have squared off 6 times. Manning has won 5 of them, losing to Cowboys' back-up QB Jon Kitna in Jason Garrett's 1st game as head coach in 2010.

And since that night, the New York Giants have run 230 pass plays against the Cowboys 3-4 defense. And in those 230 passes over the span of 3 seasons and 6 games, the Cowboys have sacked Manning 4 times or once every 57.5 pass plays (as a comparison, the Cowboys averaged a sack every 14 pass attempts against the league last year). And to make it much, much worse, over those 230 pass plays, DeMarcus Ware has 3.5 of the 4 sacks. That's right. The rest of the Cowboys defense, with 230 chances at getting to the QB, only Jason Hatcher has tallied even half of a sack. Pitiful may not properly sum up this reality.

So, the pressure does not get to the QB without blitzing. And when blitzing, Eli can get rid of the ball to exactly the proper place, ripping the cornerbacks of the Cowboys to shreds. Have a look at the game log of Eli since that fateful night at Texas Stadium:

Date	Result	C-A-Yds-TD-INT	Rating	Sacked
9/20/09	Win	25-38-330-2-0	110.6	0
12/06/09	Win	11-25-241-2-1	88.9	1
10/25/11	Win	25-35-306-4-3	100.4	1
11/14/10	Loss	33-48-373-2-2	88.3	0
12/11/11	Win	27-47-400-2-1	90.7	0
1/1/12	Win	24-33-346-3-0	136.7	2
Totals	5-1	145-226-1996-15-7	101.6	4

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That is unreal. His AVERAGE game against the Cowboys over the last 3 seasons: 24-38-365-2-1 for a QB rating of 101. That is average, as he has done much better than that.

The NFL is a matchup league. Teams play in a division that requires them to see the rest of their division twice a year. Therefore, it is mandatory that as you build your team and plan drafts and free agency every year, you must consider those teams that you will see every single year. Twice.

And in the case of the Giants and the Cowboys, we are going through a period of time where it seems rather clear that the Giants hold some rather substantial matchup issues on both sides of the ball. It has been and will be well documented how the Cowboys offensive line has very little success keeping the Giants DL off of Tony Romo (9 sacks against in 2011). But, perhaps it has not been properly investigated that the Giants hold a similar, fundamental advantage in this matchup because the Cowboys defense, regardless of coordinator, has had no good answer against Eli Manning.

What is interesting to note is that Washington has had great success in slowing down Eli Manning as he has a NFL average QB rating against Washington of 80. Against Philadelphia, he is 1-5 since 2009. But, against the Cowboys, he has all day and shreds the defense so much so that nobody thought it was out of line that he autographed the wall in the Cowboys visiting locker-room in Arlington. He really does own them. But, it should also be noted that Washington has 10 sacks in 3 seasons. Philadelphia 13 sacks. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have 4.

And yet, when you examine the numbers, it seems disingenuous to simply blame the pass rush. In fact, the Cowboys seemed to speak with their actions this spring that they believe Eli Manning owns them because their secondary was not good enough. It is worth noting that from 2009-2011, the top 3 corners on the Cowboys remained the same: Terence Newman, Mike Jenkins, and Orlando Scandrick.

And, time after time, he lit all of their rears on fire whenever they played. Jenkins was the least burned, but his health kept him off the field for almost half of the action. But overall, Eli could throw in any direction. Take a look - Here are the numbers for the 6 games combined when Manning threw the ball at a particular Cowboys' corner (numbers courtesy of ProFootballFocus):

Vs Corner	C-A-Yds-TD-INT	Rating	Snaps
Vs Newman	29-48-498-4-1	114.6	333/430
Vs Jenkins	17-29-237-0-1	70.6	249/430
Vs Scandrick	31-43-409-5-0	140.5	330/430

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Clearly, Eli Manning loved playing the Cowboys because he loved throwing at the corners.

First, the plays against Terence Newman, where Eli would seek out #41 and his "off and soft" techniques and seek him again and again. Sometimes, he would go after him to a fault and he almost threw away last season's game in Arlington, but a pass that hit Newman between the numbers fell harmlessly to the ground. But in 48 passes at Newman over 6 games (8 per), he amassed nearly 500 yards or over 80 per game. What is also worth noting is that none of these corners were able to stay on the field. All 3 of them missed at least 97 snaps in these games due to bangs, bruises, and breathers.

The Cowboys knew that this was an issue and so did anyone watching. Newman's diminished performance was one of the worst kept secrets going around in Cowboys land. So, in free agency, the Cowboys made a tremendous upgrade when they paid Brandon Carr to join their side for $50m. This should challenge Manning with a physical corner who has both the size and the speed to take things away on occasions where the Cowboys wish to press.

But, take a look at the slot. Last week, I was under the impression that Orlando Scandrick might have been able to prevent the long TD pass to Victor Cruz last season with some better slot technique against the option routes of the Giants.

However, after doing the research and reviewing Manning vs Scandrick over 3 years, I was reminded about the nights that Steve Smith dominated Scandrick before Cruz was even in the league. Scandrick may be a reasonable slot receiver and a player who they did not need to focus on replacing, but Scandrick against the Giants has had a pork chop hanging around his neck. A line of 31-43-405 and 5 touchdowns against 0 interceptions equals a QB rating that approaches perfection. The receivers have changed against Scandrick, but the QB and the corner remain the same in the slot, and Eli loves to throw at #32.

These numbers - the idea that Manning has thrown for 500 yards against Newman and 400 more against Scandrick - reveal the issues that Wade Phillips and Rob Ryan have faced when playing him. Either they try to get pressure and risk the secondary being undermanned, or they fortify the secondary and give Eli all day to pick them apart. Either way, they are dead.

And the proof is on the scoreboard, where the Cowboys held the Giants to under 31 points in a game just once in the last 6 meetings. And, in this league, when you give up 31 points or more, you lose. Since 2009, the Cowboys have allowed 31 points on 11 occasions, and are 1-10 (lone win at Indianapolis in 2010, 38-35 (overtime)).

With Carr and the 1st round pick, Mo Claiborne, the Cowboys have now invested in the corner position to a point that it risked other spots on the field to be ignored (OL). With Claiborne, it is more of a long play than a fix for the immediate nature of Wednesday night. Corners, no matter how special and talented, endure a growing process filled with pains, lessons, and tests against veteran QBs. And you can bet that on Wednesday, it will be up to Claiborne to answer all of the questions that are asked of him when Rob Ryan decides to leave him on an island with whoever he is being asked to blanket. Rookie corners always get welcomed to the NFL in the most unkind way possible.

To me, Eli Manning is one of the most complicated QBs to rate in the NFL. He does things that the very best QBs don't do that detract from his greatness. He reminds you of what Jimmy Johnson used to say about league MVP, Brett Favre: He will throw a few to us if we are patient. Manning always mixes in a few plays that could be disastrous. In Super Bowl 42, the Patriots had the game in their hands but Asante Samuel dropped the sure pick. Newman did Manning the same favor last December. As did the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game last January.

He is not near flawless, but I have also decided to stop betting against him. He is better than I have been willing to admit over these last many seasons. I even spent an entire blog on the man and my opinion of him last season.

But, in Dallas, the biggest argument for him is not that he has 2 rings (although that is a rather large argument). The biggest argument for Eli Manning in Dallas is that he owns the Cowboys. He has unreasonable success against the team that loathes him the most. And no matter how they try to slow him down, he wears that smirk and throws another touchdown.

With no Newman to kick around anymore, and 2 very important pieces at the corner position, it will be most interesting to see what posture the Cowboys defense brings into this battle. The good news is that the bar is 365 yards and 31 points. Anything south of either of those 2 numbers will be considered better than usual. The bad news is just how low that bar is right now.

Credit to Eli Manning

Being both a big mouth and a football-obsessed member of the media for 18 years, I have spent a fair amount of time trying to figure things out in the NFL. Over 3,100 episodes of the Bob and Dan show since 1999 on Sportsradio 1310 the Ticket on Dallas airwaves at 3 hours per show has put us dangerously close to the Malcolm Gladwell "10,000" hour rule. That rule argues "that the key to success in any field is, to a large extent, a matter of practicing a specific task for a total of around 10,000 hours."

And yet, as I reread Gladwell's thoughts on the 10,000 hour rule, it does not profess to offer perfection after 10,000 hours. A pianist will not reach that milestone and suddenly never play a wrong note. A basketball player or golfer will not make every shot just because they have put in the experience. And to that truth, I breathed a sigh of relief.

Because after writing thousands of football blogs and bantering on and on about the sport for almost two decades, it is clear that I am now prepared to look a major mistake right in the eyes. After talking about Eli Manning for years and years, I am more that prepared to take it all back and admit I had it completely and utterly wrong.

You see, I have been skeptical of his work since Ole Miss, when he arrived on the scene as this prodigy who can't miss. Why? Because he is the son of a NFL Quarterback and the brother of maybe the best QB of our generation. And that is what bothered me. I would watch him play in college (in particular, a home and home series with Texas Tech in '02 and '03) and would begin to assemble a theory that most of the media was looking at his family lineage a lot closer than his actual play.

I saw problems with his judgement, his throws were sometimes off the back foot, his composure was hit-or-miss, and it just seemed lazy for media types to look at his last name and not look at his tape. I wasn't going to make that mistake, I thought. I will watch more tape and try to imagine him without that last name. What would I think of Eli Manning if his name was Scott Smith? I would think that he was a decent QB, but not destined for NFL greatness.

On draft day, 2004, Eli and his father decided to dictate terms to the NFL when it came to drafting him. San Diego had the top pick in the draft, and in the NFL, it takes a lot of nerve to think you can tell a franchise that you aren't going to play there. It delivers a message of ego and narcissism that usually doesn't exist in a kid right out of college, but the Mannings did not appear short on nerve. Somehow, playing in San Diego seemed to not meet with their hopes, and instead, with some help, they brokered a deal to where Eli could land in the biggest media market on the planet, New York.

Looking back, that surely affected my judgement. He was going to dictate terms to the NFL? Again, if he was Scott Smith, this would never work, I thought. This is more catering to his last name. And he wanted to go play for them? The Giants? Surely, my judgement was also affected by this kid wanting to force his way to a NFC rival that already thinks they are deserving of whatever advantages they may receive from their geographical location and self-assigned significance on the NFL landscape.

His career began in New York and his numbers were brutal. In his first few years, his production was far more reminiscent of Quincy Carter than any superstars who go #1 overall and tell San Diego to take a hike. Yet, he was being lavished with riches and adoration from New York and celebrated as NFL royalty. All the way through the end of his 4th season, his completion percentage was always in the mid-50s (mediocre) and his QB rating was always in the mid 70s (worse than mediocre). 4 years and 55 starts into his career, I had seen enough to feel like I hit this one out of the park. He was an average QB and New York and the NFL was fooled by his last name. If only they had done the Scott Smith test, like I did.

I clearly remember the start of the 2007 playoffs. New York was at Tampa Bay, and most were of the feeling that the Giants would be one and done. They beat Tampa, and Eli looked good. But, surely, that wouldn't last. The next week, they were coming here, to play the Dallas Cowboys and the 13-3 juggernaut with their "elite QB" Tony Romo. Romo, seemed to be the polar opposite of Manning. He was undrafted and yet had numbers that dazzled. QB rating was up their with Eli's big brother, Peyton. He wasn't anointed on draft day as the 2nd coming. Romo worked for everything that he had earned. Eli was presented everything on a comfortable pillow.

And then, the game revealed that Eli was ready to win this game. Throw after throw was made and 3rd downs were converted. Eli was no "bus driver". On that day, he out-dueled Romo and shocked the NFL with a knockout of a #1 seed. It was the first time that my opinion was rocked. The very next week, he made more big throws and never threw the big interception at Lambeau Field. He delivered on a stage where Brett Favre was sure to have a date with destiny in Super Bowl 42. But, Eli took that date and cancelled it. Not by himself, but again, like with his beating of Romo, he clearly offered the edge at QB play. His defense and running game did the rest, but Eli was no passenger.

Super Bowl 42 was a thing of beauty. Again, the Giants were a big underdog and were not a hot team at all when the playoffs hit. They finished the year 4-4 and were thought of as a nice easy playoff opponent. But after he made big throws in the 2nd half of that Super Bowl against the 18-0 Patriots, nobody doubted his award for Super Bowl MVP. He was clutch and he got it done. His playoff numbers in 2007 were the best of his career, with a rating of 96, and 6 TDs and just 1 INT.

Personally, I had mixed emotions on what he was all about. On one hand, we had a huge body of work of very average QB play over 4 seasons in the pros. But, then we had this remarkable month in January of 2008 where he couldn't miss and wouldn't crack under any type of scheme or pressure. Was this the case of a player in a 1-month zone, playing the best of his career at just the perfect time? Or even luckiest time?

2008 started and Eli was a Super Bowl champion. He was now in a position to be one of the elite QBs and needed to prove he could play well on a Sunday to Sunday basis like the greats all could. But, he was simply, "ok". He won a lot of games, but his QB play just wasn't that impressive. His numbers were always so-so, and his posture and expressions indicated that he was never enjoying himself. His demeanor seemed to indicate that this was not a fun profession, but rather something he had to do since he was a boy. His enthusiasm seemed to be non-existent and in a sport that features some very enthusiastic QBs, this was a weird departure.

The Giants were one-and-done in 2008, 8-8 in 2009, and missed the playoffs late in 2010. With each passing year, Eli's 2007 looked more like a decent QB playing out of his mind in that one month. He was a fine QB, but not a great one. Looking around the NFL, it was easy to make cases for his skill set being inferior to quite a few others.

But he had his ring. And therefore had the debate advantage against anyone who did not have one as well. As he hit his 30th birthday, opinions were still just as split as ever on Eli Manning.

In August, he was asked how he could get to that top class of NFL QBs, next to Tom Brady. Eli responded, "I consider myself in that class." I snickered. It seemed absurd.

2011 brought the 1st year in his career where his brother was not putting up superior numbers elsewhere in the league. And Eli responded by putting up the best numbers of his career. Easily the best yardage per attempt and yardage per game numbers. The interceptions that haunted him in 2010 dropped substantially, and his performances in big games started to soar again.

And yesterday can put those 2007 "fluke" premises to bed. His performance at Lambeau against a heavily-favored, 15-1 Packers squad cannot be understated. The Packers played like a team with the weight of the world on their shoulders and as they say, "pressure busts pipes". With each drop or fumble, the Packers free-wheeling offense grew tighter and tighter. Things were so easy until they were not. And with a ticking clock piling more and more pressure up, Eli hit Hakeem Nicks for a pair of gigantic 1st half TDs, including a Hail Mary that likely won New York the game.

Aaron Rodgers, who 9 out of 10 football people would say is a better QB, succumbed to the pressure of the situation - missing throws he never misses. While Eli Manning stood tall and delivered precise passes to perfect spots for a good part of the game. His best throws were his most important throws, converting on long 3rd Downs all day long. He won a duel that most people thought he couldn't.

Now, Eli Manning sits in the NFC Championship Game. He will again be an underdog, and many of us will look at a San Francisco defense to take him apart. But, my days of vocally doubting Eli Manning are done. He has seemed to always play well against the Dallas Cowboys - so much so that he autographed the wall in the new stadium visitor's locker room, but those aren't his only big days. In fact, they are not even close to his most important big days.

He beat Brady in a Super Bowl. He beat Favre in Lambeau in the NFC Championship Game. He now has beaten Rodgers in Lambeau in the playoffs. He has won enough times during the playoffs in very difficult situations to realize that while, yes, he does have the pleasure of playing on a team with a very dominant defense, he still delivers when called upon. He is not winning by himself, but he is winning.

So, yes, I was wrong on Eli Manning. Many times. I have no idea where to rate him among the elite QBs in the NFL. But, it is foolish to spend much time picking apart his body language or his October passer rating. He plays his best at the biggest time of the year, and has a special ability to never seem to feel pressure when his counter-parts do.

And that is where we must surmise that his lineage does matter and always did. The NFL is not as impressive to someone who grew up in a home with NFL Quarterbacks his entire life. His mind is not blown by the environment. And it shows.

So, I am out of the business of doubting him. He has taught me a valuable lesson that took almost 10,000 hours to learn. Sometimes, the name does matter. And no matter how much time you spend on your opinions, some of them are going to be dead wrong.