Over the next several weeks, I want to do what I attempt to do every summer, which is to take a good look back at the previous season. There are enough people on the interweb speculating about what could happen in 2013 and what they learned from OTA's. That is great sometimes, and I enjoy their work. But, I usually have enough time for that at Training Camp and with the preseason games - especially this year with an elongated camp and an additional preseason game.
So, the bridge from OTA's until Oxnard is best filled by examining the previous season both from a macro view and a micro view.
First, the macro view. The NFL keeps a few hundred different team statistics which are sorted from top to bottom for all 32 teams. They are separated and averaged both by "All 32" and then by "playoff teams". The second ranking is a good way to compare yourself to the 12 teams that made the NFL postseason.
So, today, I thought we could examine the offensive statistics from these files and pick out the best and worst stats from the Cowboys offense - relative to the rest of the league and to the playoff field. Then, next time, we will give the same treatment to the Cowboys defense.
Here we go:
5 Great Stats from the Cowboys Offense in 2012
1st Down Efficiency: Rated 2nd in NFL with 53.6% Success Rate. NFL Average was 47.3% and Playoff Teams averaged 48.6%
3 and Out Drives: 3rd best in NFL with 17.2%. NFL Average = 22.7%, Playoff Average = 20.6%
3rd Down Conversions: 43.9% was 5th in NFL. NFL Average = 38.2%, Playoff Average = 40.2%
Net Passing Yards Per Game: 295.6 per game, ranked 3rd. NFL Average = 231.3, Playoff Average = 237.1
1st Down Passing (4 yards or more): 2nd in NFL, 59.8%. NFL = 50.9%, Playoffs = 53.2%
This group is certainly propped up with the fantastic accumulation of numbers that were the Cowboys calling card in the latter part of the season where they abandoned all hopes of balance and power and simply let their weapons do their work. This is where Dez Bryant emerged as a dominant player and where Tony Romo unleashed his stable of weapons that will only improve this season. Net passing yards are way above where they need to be (and are certainly not indicative of winning football), and 1st down efficiency combined with 3rd down conversions are all where you want to be.
3rd Down conversions don't say everything, but when the top teams are all playoff teams: New England, Atlanta, Denver and the bottom 3 teams are Jacksonville, Arizona, and Cleveland - you can at least see that there is some indicator of who has elite QBs and who doesn't by how 3rd Down goes. So, it is nice to sit at #5 in that stat.
5 Good/Average Stats from the Cowboys Offense in 2012
Yards Per Play: 5.71, 11th in NFL. NFL Average = 5.41, Playoff Teams Average = 5.62
Times Sacked: 36, 15th in the NFL. NFL Average = 37, Playoff Teams = 35
Explosive Plays (Plays of 20 yards or more): 61, 16th in NFL. NFL = 60, Playoffs = 64
Offensive Points Scored: 348, 15th in the NFL. NFL Average = 333, Playoff Teams = 385
Time of Possession: 30:33 for 13th in NFL. NFL Average = 30:00, Playoff Teams 30:37
The one that jumps out at you here is the issue we always discuss - 15th in points scored for all those big yardage stats above. That is one characteristic of the Jason Garrett offense that seems to be consistent most years. This team under performs on the scoreboard for all of the stats they put up. This is why hearing that they have high yardage rankings doesn't mean much to people that suggest they can move the ball between the 20s all day long. It is also interesting to see that they are only league average in explosive plays. You would think that with Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray, this number should be way higher. The Saints led the league with 77 and that is the neighborhood that you want to reside in soon with all of the weapons.
5 Poor Stats from the Cowboys Offense in 2012
10 Play Drives: Cowboys had 21, 32nd best in NFL. NFL Average = 27, Playoff Teams 29
Giveaways: 29, which ranked 25th. NFL Average = 25, Playoffs = 19
Penalties Called: 117, ranked 30th. NFL Average = 100, Playoff Teams Average = 100
Rush Plays Called: 33.8%, 31st. NFL Average = 42.3%, Playoff teams = 45.2%
Yards Per Play in Red Zone: 2.43, 28th. NFL Average = 2.86, Playoff Teams = 2.92
Ah, the killers. The stats that must be focused on. And you can argue that they have all been addressed with personnel changes and coaching initiatives in this offseason. Their drives were too short, too penalized, too many turnovers, no runs, and inefficient in the red zone.
How many of these stats are connected? You have to pass to move the ball, you can't hold linebackers or safeties with play action, therefore you are throwing into more coverage - more giveaways.
Also, when the field gets shorter, the gaps in the secondary get smaller, and it gets harder to move the ball. And, of course, you cannot commit 17 more penalties a season than the field. That is simply a self-inflicted wound that must be cleaned up.
Next time, we look at these same numbers from the defensive point of view.
Showing posts with label Cowboys 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cowboys 2012. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
Cowboys By The Numbers: Offense
Labels:
Cowboys 2012,
Garrett,
Jason Garrett,
Pass Offense,
Run Offense
Friday, October 05, 2012
Splash Plays - Week 4 - Chicago
Conventional wisdom is that Jay Cutler plays very poorly under duress. In fact, it doesn't require one to go very deep into the archives to see Cutler's body language and performance take a major nose dive when he had to keep pulling himself up off the turf in Week 2 in a prime-time road game where he was being beat up.
So, in another prime-time road game, the idea from Rob Ryan and the gang was to try to get to Jay Cutler and see if they could revive the poor body language and the weak back-foot throws.
Well, that didn't seem to work very well.
The Cowboys played it pretty close to the vest early on, but as the game went along, they saw that sending 4 rushers was not getting the job done. Anthony Spencer could not play and the very weak Chicago offensive line was focusing all attention on DeMarcus Ware and was not having trouble stopping the Dallas pass rush.
So, as the game went on, the Cowboys defense had to start pressing. Pressing more coverage up to get to Cutler, and risking more busts in the back.
And bad things happened.
There were 6 explosive plays turned in by the Chicago Bears on Monday night. 6 is a very high number based on our 2011 research. In all of 2011, the Cowboys conceded 6 explosives on only 5 occasions. Unfortunately, all 5 were NFC East opponents: 2 games against New York, 2 games against Philadelphia, and the game at Washington all had 6.
But, here, the Bears found 6 explosives - all in the 2nd half. Here they are - Please note the pass rushers sent:
| Q-Time | D/D/Yd | Play | Rushers |
| 3-12:02 | 1/10/D34 | Cutler to Hester, +34 TD | 5 |
| 3-8:09 | 1/10/C6 | Cutler to Marshall, +25 | 6 |
| 3-0:20 | 3/4/C36 | Cutler to Davis, +21 | 4 |
| 4-13:42 | 3/5/D38 | Cutler to Marshall, +30 | 6 |
| 4-7:37 | 3/3/C40 | Cutler to Davis, +25 | 6 |
| 4-6:35 | 3/6/D31 | Cutler to Marshall, +31 TD | 7 |
On 1 occasion, the Cowboys sent normal pressure. On another, the Hester TD, there was only 5. But on the other 4 explosives allowed, Jay Cutler made the Cowboys pay badly for sending the "big blitzes.
This is why we don't want our coordinators to use blitzing as a necessity. If you need it to get pressure, the good QBs in this league will bring you to your knees.
Here is the Marshall TD Play to show you the Cover 0 blitz that the Cowboys called in desperation and that was quickly solved by the Bears for the easiest TD of their year:
Notice the simple route that allows the Bears TE to pick off Brandon Carr. This leaves Marshall all by himself and since the Cowboys blitz cannot get there in time, the play is a disaster for the Cowboys.
This demonstrates the under-reported issues of Monday. Not only did Tony Romo make some desperate decisions that went very poorly on Monday - So did Rob Ryan.
And the Bears made them pay.
====
SPLASH PLAYS
Let's take a look at the "Splash Plays" from Week 4 versus Chicago:
Splash Plays are key impact plays from the defense. Usually, they are obvious, but there are some that blur the line. I have listed time and play of each one for those who want to double check my work.
For more, read a detailed explanation of this study here: What is a Splash Play?
I would like to point out one big positive from breaking down the defense. I think Josh Brent played his best game as a Cowboy. His sack was relatively lucky, but his overall line play was very impressive, blowing up running plays on numerous occasions. I was very pleased with his play at DT.
WEEK 3
| Q-Time | D/D/Yd | Player | Play |
| 1-4:50 | 2/9/O46 | Lee | Tackle For Loss |
| 1-4:11 | 3/12/O43 | Claiborne | 3rd Down Stop |
| 1-1:10 | 1/10/O18 | Crawford | Run Stuff |
| 1-0:30 | 3/9/O20 | Ware | Pressure |
| 2-11:17 | 1/10/O6 | Hatcher | Run Stuff |
| 2-5:00 | 3/1/D25 | Brent | Run Stuff |
| 2-5:00 | 3/1/D25 | Hatcher | Run Stuff |
| 3-6:25 | 2/12/O28 | Ware | Sack and Strip (2) |
| 3-6:25 | 2/12/O28 | Butler | Fumble Recovery |
| 3-0:48 | 2/5/O39 | Lee | Run Stuff |
| 4-12:14 | 2/G/D3 | Spears | Run Stuff |
| 4-11:34 | 3/G/D4 | McCray | Pass Break Up |
| 4-6:41 | 2/7/D32 | Lee | Run Stuff |
| 4-4:38 | 2/13/D46 | Brent | Sack |
The team did very well plugging up the run. But, very poorly in stopping the big passing play and the 3rd Down conversions.
Here are the team standings kept on a week-by-week basis with the numbers below:
| Player | Splashes |
| Ware | 12 |
| Spencer | 8 |
| Carter | 6 |
| Hatcher | 6 |
| Lee | 6 |
| Brent | 4 |
| Spears | 3 |
| Carr | 2 |
| VButler | 2 |
| Crawford | 2 |
| Sensabaugh | 1 |
| Lissemore | 1 |
| Claiborne | 2 |
| Jenkins | 1 |
| Lewis | 1 |
| Church | 1 |
| Scandrick | 1 |
| McCray | 1 |
| Team Total | 60 |
===========
BLITZING REPORT
We covered most of the blitzing report above, but we should point out that of the 12 blitzes on Monday night, I had 3 of them in the 1st half and 9 in the 2nd half. The Cowboys were trying to press the issue as they fell behind and it seemed to only make things worse.
The Cowboys were able to find 2 2nd half sacks, and both did come by sending extra pressure.
| Q-Time | D/D/Yd | Play | Rushers |
| 3-6:33 | 2/12/C29 | Cutler Sack and Strip by Ware | 6 |
| 4-4:42 | 2/13/D46 | Cutler Sack by Brent | 5 |
Here is how Rob Ryan deployed pass rushers, separated by down.
Pass Rushers Against Chicago - 27 pass rush/blitz situations:
| Pass Rushers | 1st D | 2nd D | 3rd D | 4th D | Total |
| 3 Rush | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 Rush | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 Rush | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 Rush | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 Rush | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
They can't get pressure without blitzing. When they blitz, they expose their corners too much. And when you do that, big plays happen if one guy misses his man.
The idea was that if you get good enough corners, they could cover this up, but even the best corners lose to Brandon Marshall. The only tried and true way to win defensively against a veteran QB is to get him to the ground. And preferably with only 4 pass rushers. Then, the blitz is a luxury item, not a necessity.
But, to do that, you need more than Ware to get to the QB. And that is why it is key for Jay Ratliff and Spencer to get back on the field. If you can get Jason Hatcher and those 3 players to all get out there together, with a little Tyrone Crawford mixed in, perhaps this team can get more pressure without coming up short in coverage.
But, Monday was a reminder that corners don't fix everything.
Labels:
Cowboys 2012,
FSSW,
splash plays
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Film Room: Tyron Smith vs The NY Giants
Each week, we want to examine one crucial component of each Cowboys game and break it down with the new "All-22" game film that is available on NFL.com as part of their Game Rewind subscription.
It is an amazing resource for fans who have hoped for years to now have this information at their fingertips. It won't reveal everything, but it will offer us way more information than we have ever had before. With that in mind, I want to pick something from each game and break it down with some level of thoroughness. It could be one play or a sequence of them, or in this case, it is a key matchup in the game that helped determine the outcome.
This week, I wanted to take a snap-by-snap look at the Cowboys new left tackle, Tyron Smith, as he takes on one of his biggest tests. When you are a left tackle in the NFL, there are no easy match ups, but to return to the site of the final crime in 2011 - a place where Tony Romo was sacked 6 times and could have been sacked more - and the Super Bowl Champion, New York Giants.
As we are all aware, Jason Pierre Paul is already amongst the most fearsome sack machines in the NFL, and he has only played 2 seasons. Only 14 players have over 20 sacks since 2010, and Pierre-Paul is the youngest player on that list. It stands to reason that he might be on the verge of passing many on that list of 14 as he gains more NFL experience. He is already good at 23, but the football world wonders where he will be at the age of 25 or 26.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have a QB who solves many of their pass protection issues on his own. It is simply wild speculation to tabulate how many sacks Tony Romo avoids with his uncanny movement with the ball in his hand, but let's just say everyone concedes that Drew Bledsoe would have never survived the last several Cowboys offensive lines.
But, a significant statistic that goes all the way back to the start of Romo's career still exists today. The night he became the Cowboys QB (October 23, 2006), Romo was on the receiving end of 6 Giants sacks. Since that night, when the Cowboys concede 4 sacks or more, they are 3-14. 5 sacks or more? The Cowboys are 0-8 since 2006. You simply cannot win in the NFL without the ability to pass in the NFL. And you cannot pass in the NFL if your QB's health is in danger.
Pass protection is not just about sacks, either. It is about allowing your wide receivers time to run routes that are down the field. If it takes longer to run a route down the field, then defensive backs do not have to respect your deep routes. They know that pressure is forcing the ball out of the QB's hands early. Therefore, they can sit on the short patterns and jump routes. That is when most Pick-6's happen.
In the summer, I spent some time sizing up the swap of Tyron Smith and Doug Free from one side of the line to the other. And I believe that a large part of the move happened because of Free's inability to hold off the rush of JPP and Trent Cole. Just like Michael Vick and Robert Griffin, if you are going to play your division rivals every year twice, you had better start planning your season with the best ways to deal with them. Slow linebackers will not contain mobile QBs, nor will a left tackle that struggle in pass protection.
Before we get to the game, let's also discuss one more item. That is, that looking at sack results is a poor way to evaluate play. Sacks are a big deal, but if you are an offensive coordinator, you want to be proactive about sacks, not reactive. In other words, you need to game-plan around what causes sacks. So, if I think Doug Free cannot block Jared Allen, then, I game plan to never ask him to do it. I line up Jason Witten next to Free and I keep Witten in to help. I have a RB behind him that will chip Allen back to the inside before he releases into his route. If my goal is to never allow a sack to Allen, I can do that. But, it will cost me two other offensive players to help Free throughout the game. My goal is to win the game, not to shut-out Allen. Therefore, I have to deploy my players in a way that helps me score points. And that is why a left tackle who gives up 1 sack in a game but never needs help might have more value than a left tackle that gives up 0 sacks but needs lots of help. And as we look at film, we are not only evaluating his performance, but, equally important, we are looking to see how much help he gets.
In scouting circles, sometimes that is called training wheels. "He had training wheels on, but now we are taking them off", describes a young tackle that was getting help all of the time, but now he is on an island. Mano y mano. Taking on Pierre-Paul all by himself as he attempts to protect Romo's blindside.
Let's see how he did:
Drive #1: Smith has uneventful 1st Drive, receiving some help on the 3rd Down play as Felix Jones chips Osi Umenyiora who was heading on an inside stunt.
Drive #2: Play #2, Smith suffers a false start penalty against JPP. Later, on 4th and 1. when Vickers is stopped short, it appears the "C gap" is left unattended by Jeremy Parnell who was the tackle-eligible on Smith's left. Antrel Rolle who is very impressive against the run is able to split that gap and affect Vickers on his way to the pile, and the play is doomed. Smith seemed to carry out his down block assignment on the play.
Drive #3: Smith is seeing plenty of Umenyiora, as the Giants are moving Pierre-Paul up and down the line to look for matchups against Doug Free and Ryan Cook. On the Romo interception, Smith has driven Osi behind Romo and across the far hash. For him to recover and ultimately make the tackle of Michael Boley (albeit illegal tackle) is both a testament to his athleticism and his hustle. Two Giants defensive backs had a chance to block Smith but quickly made a business decision to get out of his way and he horse-collared Boley. It cost him 15k, but perhaps was a play that made all of the difference in the outcome. It took points off the board for the Giants and if ever there was a worthy penalty, there it is.
Drive #4: This is the first time Tyron is flat-out beaten by Pierre-Paul. With 6:52 to go in the 2nd Quarter, DeMarco Murray is running to Smith's side. JPP fakes inside and Smith responds. This allows Pierre-Paul to catch Smith leaning and rips around him to hammer Murray in the backfield. If anything seems to give Smith trouble, it is the quick inside move. Jason Babin killed him on it last year, and when he starts worrying about it, then, the counter gets him, too.
Below, Smith vs JPP on Ogletree TD with 1:07 left in 2nd Quarter

Romo's movement keeps play alive - 1:07 left in 2nd Quarter

Drive #5: First play is another false start as he is leaning to run the zone stretch right. Smith is demonstrating a real impressive ability in the run game to finish his blocks down the field. Also, he can get multiple guys as he moves. He is quite an athlete. In the 2 minute drill, the Cowboys send Felix to chip another time, but he has received almost no help in the 1st half. With 1:07 left in the half, Romo helps Smith out by feeling Pierre-Paul turning the corner from the blind side. Smith is doing all he can, but if Romo doesn't step away, this might have ended poorly. Instead, Romo's movement opens up the throw to Ogletree in the endzone, and a near disaster turns into a touchdown.
2nd Half -
13:42, 3rd Quarter - Smith caught leaning outside

13:42, 3rd Quarter - JPP uses that lean and beats Smith inside

Drive #6: 13:42, Smith is caught guessing that JPP is going outside, but Pierre-Paul heads back inside and beats Smith. Romo unloads quickly to flank and Murray, and no damage is done. As athletic as Smith is, Pierre-Paul's quickness is shocking at the snap. At 13:00, Smith again is beaten, as JPP fakes inside, Smith responds, and then Pierre-Paul swims to the outside. Luckily, the draw runs right past him, but you can see that Smith is now guessing and is a bit off balance. At 10:42, Umenyiora appears to have the edge, but Tyron recovers well and pushes him well past Romo. There is no question that Smith deals with Osi much differently. On plays against #72, there are almost no issues at all.
Drive #7: 2:53, maybe I spoke to soon on Osi. Umenyiora goes with the straight bull rush and pushes Tyron right into Romo. But, Romo, demonstrating wonderful awareness breaks the pocket and picks up 9 yards. We saw Smith lose the bull rush battle last season to Detroit's Willie Young. This time, he does just enough.
Drive #8: Now in the 4th Quarter, at 11:27, we see a rare occasion where Tyron is on the ground on a stretch zone play. I say that because unlike his predecessors, this is a real rarity for Smith. Marc Colombo and Leonard Davis spent tons of time on the ground, and Tyron keeps his feet very, very well. This is a key in the run game. Do not lose your feet, because a 325 man laying on the ground is a great way to stop your running back. At 9:08, there is yet another false start from Smith, also on another run play. It is interesting that his false starts seem to precede run plays, not pass protection.
Drive #9: The Cowboys execute the 4 minute drill and Smith carries out all assignments very well.
Overall: 3 false starts and a few pressures. But, this is the type of game you would hope your left tackle could be capable of pulling off, but to do it in his first start at that position is very impressive. He was beaten a few times and is obviously concerned about giving up the edge, so there will be some pass rushers that will attempt to use the inside counter move to beat him. But, the Cowboys hardly helped him the whole game. He was on an island and did very well. 57 snaps and he kept Pierre-Paul from dominating the game and Osi was hardly even mentioned.
I think the Cowboys fretted all off-season about how they would deal with the New York front. It wasn't perfect, but it was much better. Smith will get picked apart for his flags, but I am not worried about those. They can get cleaned up easily. What would worry you is if he was routinely beaten or needed lots of help. He was neither. The Cowboys sent help to Free's side or allowed "Scat" protection (just 5 OL protection - no RB or TE help). He had his training wheels fully removed and did very well.
This is the first of many battles. Part of being a left tackle is that there are no weeks off. Every single Sunday, you will see a guy who is a great pass rusher and he only has to beat you once or twice to do his job. You have to beat him every snap to do yours. With Trent Cole, Julius Peppers, and Brian Orakpo down the road, there are going to be good days and bad, but Smith looks like the real deal, false starts or not.
It is an amazing resource for fans who have hoped for years to now have this information at their fingertips. It won't reveal everything, but it will offer us way more information than we have ever had before. With that in mind, I want to pick something from each game and break it down with some level of thoroughness. It could be one play or a sequence of them, or in this case, it is a key matchup in the game that helped determine the outcome.
This week, I wanted to take a snap-by-snap look at the Cowboys new left tackle, Tyron Smith, as he takes on one of his biggest tests. When you are a left tackle in the NFL, there are no easy match ups, but to return to the site of the final crime in 2011 - a place where Tony Romo was sacked 6 times and could have been sacked more - and the Super Bowl Champion, New York Giants.
As we are all aware, Jason Pierre Paul is already amongst the most fearsome sack machines in the NFL, and he has only played 2 seasons. Only 14 players have over 20 sacks since 2010, and Pierre-Paul is the youngest player on that list. It stands to reason that he might be on the verge of passing many on that list of 14 as he gains more NFL experience. He is already good at 23, but the football world wonders where he will be at the age of 25 or 26.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have a QB who solves many of their pass protection issues on his own. It is simply wild speculation to tabulate how many sacks Tony Romo avoids with his uncanny movement with the ball in his hand, but let's just say everyone concedes that Drew Bledsoe would have never survived the last several Cowboys offensive lines.
But, a significant statistic that goes all the way back to the start of Romo's career still exists today. The night he became the Cowboys QB (October 23, 2006), Romo was on the receiving end of 6 Giants sacks. Since that night, when the Cowboys concede 4 sacks or more, they are 3-14. 5 sacks or more? The Cowboys are 0-8 since 2006. You simply cannot win in the NFL without the ability to pass in the NFL. And you cannot pass in the NFL if your QB's health is in danger.
Pass protection is not just about sacks, either. It is about allowing your wide receivers time to run routes that are down the field. If it takes longer to run a route down the field, then defensive backs do not have to respect your deep routes. They know that pressure is forcing the ball out of the QB's hands early. Therefore, they can sit on the short patterns and jump routes. That is when most Pick-6's happen.
In the summer, I spent some time sizing up the swap of Tyron Smith and Doug Free from one side of the line to the other. And I believe that a large part of the move happened because of Free's inability to hold off the rush of JPP and Trent Cole. Just like Michael Vick and Robert Griffin, if you are going to play your division rivals every year twice, you had better start planning your season with the best ways to deal with them. Slow linebackers will not contain mobile QBs, nor will a left tackle that struggle in pass protection.
Before we get to the game, let's also discuss one more item. That is, that looking at sack results is a poor way to evaluate play. Sacks are a big deal, but if you are an offensive coordinator, you want to be proactive about sacks, not reactive. In other words, you need to game-plan around what causes sacks. So, if I think Doug Free cannot block Jared Allen, then, I game plan to never ask him to do it. I line up Jason Witten next to Free and I keep Witten in to help. I have a RB behind him that will chip Allen back to the inside before he releases into his route. If my goal is to never allow a sack to Allen, I can do that. But, it will cost me two other offensive players to help Free throughout the game. My goal is to win the game, not to shut-out Allen. Therefore, I have to deploy my players in a way that helps me score points. And that is why a left tackle who gives up 1 sack in a game but never needs help might have more value than a left tackle that gives up 0 sacks but needs lots of help. And as we look at film, we are not only evaluating his performance, but, equally important, we are looking to see how much help he gets.
In scouting circles, sometimes that is called training wheels. "He had training wheels on, but now we are taking them off", describes a young tackle that was getting help all of the time, but now he is on an island. Mano y mano. Taking on Pierre-Paul all by himself as he attempts to protect Romo's blindside.
Let's see how he did:
Drive #1: Smith has uneventful 1st Drive, receiving some help on the 3rd Down play as Felix Jones chips Osi Umenyiora who was heading on an inside stunt.
Drive #2: Play #2, Smith suffers a false start penalty against JPP. Later, on 4th and 1. when Vickers is stopped short, it appears the "C gap" is left unattended by Jeremy Parnell who was the tackle-eligible on Smith's left. Antrel Rolle who is very impressive against the run is able to split that gap and affect Vickers on his way to the pile, and the play is doomed. Smith seemed to carry out his down block assignment on the play.
Drive #3: Smith is seeing plenty of Umenyiora, as the Giants are moving Pierre-Paul up and down the line to look for matchups against Doug Free and Ryan Cook. On the Romo interception, Smith has driven Osi behind Romo and across the far hash. For him to recover and ultimately make the tackle of Michael Boley (albeit illegal tackle) is both a testament to his athleticism and his hustle. Two Giants defensive backs had a chance to block Smith but quickly made a business decision to get out of his way and he horse-collared Boley. It cost him 15k, but perhaps was a play that made all of the difference in the outcome. It took points off the board for the Giants and if ever there was a worthy penalty, there it is.
Drive #4: This is the first time Tyron is flat-out beaten by Pierre-Paul. With 6:52 to go in the 2nd Quarter, DeMarco Murray is running to Smith's side. JPP fakes inside and Smith responds. This allows Pierre-Paul to catch Smith leaning and rips around him to hammer Murray in the backfield. If anything seems to give Smith trouble, it is the quick inside move. Jason Babin killed him on it last year, and when he starts worrying about it, then, the counter gets him, too.
Below, Smith vs JPP on Ogletree TD with 1:07 left in 2nd Quarter

Romo's movement keeps play alive - 1:07 left in 2nd Quarter

Drive #5: First play is another false start as he is leaning to run the zone stretch right. Smith is demonstrating a real impressive ability in the run game to finish his blocks down the field. Also, he can get multiple guys as he moves. He is quite an athlete. In the 2 minute drill, the Cowboys send Felix to chip another time, but he has received almost no help in the 1st half. With 1:07 left in the half, Romo helps Smith out by feeling Pierre-Paul turning the corner from the blind side. Smith is doing all he can, but if Romo doesn't step away, this might have ended poorly. Instead, Romo's movement opens up the throw to Ogletree in the endzone, and a near disaster turns into a touchdown.
2nd Half -
13:42, 3rd Quarter - Smith caught leaning outside

13:42, 3rd Quarter - JPP uses that lean and beats Smith inside

Drive #6: 13:42, Smith is caught guessing that JPP is going outside, but Pierre-Paul heads back inside and beats Smith. Romo unloads quickly to flank and Murray, and no damage is done. As athletic as Smith is, Pierre-Paul's quickness is shocking at the snap. At 13:00, Smith again is beaten, as JPP fakes inside, Smith responds, and then Pierre-Paul swims to the outside. Luckily, the draw runs right past him, but you can see that Smith is now guessing and is a bit off balance. At 10:42, Umenyiora appears to have the edge, but Tyron recovers well and pushes him well past Romo. There is no question that Smith deals with Osi much differently. On plays against #72, there are almost no issues at all.
Drive #7: 2:53, maybe I spoke to soon on Osi. Umenyiora goes with the straight bull rush and pushes Tyron right into Romo. But, Romo, demonstrating wonderful awareness breaks the pocket and picks up 9 yards. We saw Smith lose the bull rush battle last season to Detroit's Willie Young. This time, he does just enough.
Drive #8: Now in the 4th Quarter, at 11:27, we see a rare occasion where Tyron is on the ground on a stretch zone play. I say that because unlike his predecessors, this is a real rarity for Smith. Marc Colombo and Leonard Davis spent tons of time on the ground, and Tyron keeps his feet very, very well. This is a key in the run game. Do not lose your feet, because a 325 man laying on the ground is a great way to stop your running back. At 9:08, there is yet another false start from Smith, also on another run play. It is interesting that his false starts seem to precede run plays, not pass protection.
Drive #9: The Cowboys execute the 4 minute drill and Smith carries out all assignments very well.
Overall: 3 false starts and a few pressures. But, this is the type of game you would hope your left tackle could be capable of pulling off, but to do it in his first start at that position is very impressive. He was beaten a few times and is obviously concerned about giving up the edge, so there will be some pass rushers that will attempt to use the inside counter move to beat him. But, the Cowboys hardly helped him the whole game. He was on an island and did very well. 57 snaps and he kept Pierre-Paul from dominating the game and Osi was hardly even mentioned.
I think the Cowboys fretted all off-season about how they would deal with the New York front. It wasn't perfect, but it was much better. Smith will get picked apart for his flags, but I am not worried about those. They can get cleaned up easily. What would worry you is if he was routinely beaten or needed lots of help. He was neither. The Cowboys sent help to Free's side or allowed "Scat" protection (just 5 OL protection - no RB or TE help). He had his training wheels fully removed and did very well.
This is the first of many battles. Part of being a left tackle is that there are no weeks off. Every single Sunday, you will see a guy who is a great pass rusher and he only has to beat you once or twice to do his job. You have to beat him every snap to do yours. With Trent Cole, Julius Peppers, and Brian Orakpo down the road, there are going to be good days and bad, but Smith looks like the real deal, false starts or not.
Labels:
Cowboys 2012,
Film Room,
FSSW
Thursday, September 06, 2012
The Morning After: Cowboys 24, Giants 17 (1-0)

Excuses. Built-in, ready-made excuses.
There are injured players. The schedule set up poorly. The NFL made the Cowboys start camp later than anyone, but then they had to play the 1st game of the season. The replacement refs missed calls. So many guys missed portions of camp. The game in New York is the toughest game on the schedule. The team doesn't play well in prime time. The Super Bowl Champions always win their opener. The offensive line did not take a single snap together in the preseason. The Giants have the Cowboys' number. Phil Costa was injured on the 3rd play of the game. It sure is tough to open with 2 games on the road. It is tough to be in good shape for Week 1. This is a long season. It is only one loss. Nobody is going to go undefeated.
So many narratives that write themselves on the day after the first game of the season. The Cowboys had lots of comfy cliches and excuses they could have eased home on this morning as they returned to Dallas. Nobody was going to blame them for losing to the Super Bowl Champions.
Instead, they returned home with a win.
There are so many talking points about the Week 1 victory over the New York Giants when you look back at this game. The one that pops quickly to mind is that this is not the type of game that these Cowboys usually find a way to win. And yet, when they did, when they popped adversity right in the kisser last night, it made you wonder what these guys might be capable of.
This game was anything but a masterpiece of precision. Mistakes all over the field. Many of them caused by an offensive line that could not stop taking penalties. Presnap call after presnap call. False starts because of jumping linemen. Delay of games, because the QB cannot get the new center to snap the ball. An interception that was thrown into coverage. A holding penalty on Jason Witten that certainly could have cost the team the game.
But, each time the Cowboys had something go wrong, they dug in and worked their way out of the mess. Tony Romo, who looks as bound and determined as he ever has, played a magnificent game. He stood tall under pressure and made the Giants secondary pay for any small mistake. It was a thing of absolute beauty for those who follow this team.
When was the last time this happened? The last time this team was a major under-dog in a game that they had to go to someone's hostile environment and get a win? I submit to you that the 2009 win in New Orleans is the last time, since the 2010 win in New York was merely a 1-7 team that played the role of the blind squirrel finding a nut. But, this was not a sneak attack. This was bitter rivals squaring off with the football world watching after months of barbs and insults. This was the high-stakes main event.
And for the Cowboys to emerge with a victory, many things had to go right when experience with this crew says something always sabotages that hope. Let's detail a few:
* Phil Costa is lost for the night after the 3rd snap of the game. He had been battling back problems in all of the preseason, and after the 3rd play, he grabbed his back and hobbled to the bench. Losing any starter hurts, but to lose the guy who is there to make your line calls, understand QB instructions, and anchor the entire group on the first possession of the game? That is just a cruel nightmare. Keep in mind that the Cowboys had been rolling with David Arkin as their center throughout the preseason, a player that had such little regard for that he was inactive last night and the team made a deadline trade to replace Arkin with Miami's 3rd string center, Ryan Cook, who was about to be cut. Cook hardly had time to meet his team-mates, let alone understand the Cowboys offense. But, surely it wouldn't make a difference, because he wasn't going to play much, right? Wrong. He would play 54 of the 57 snaps and aside from some snap count issues in a loud stadium, showed himself to be pretty solid. It makes one wonder if he is now the starting center of the Dallas Cowboys moving forward. I cannot remember a player saving the day in the face of disaster, quite like Cook did last night under those circumstances.
* The defense dug in all-night long, but the best example came after the best penalty of Tyron Smith's career. His illegal tackle that horse-collared Michael Boley after Romo's interception made the Giants punch it in from the 1-yard line. However, the Giants goal-line offense ran into a stubborn Cowboys' front and kept losing yards. The Cowboys defense made the Giants deal with physicality - not usually a Dallas defense calling card - at crucial times last night, and when the Giants could only pull 3 points out of what appeared to be a Pick-6 situation, there was a key momentum change for all to see. The defense showcased 3 new starters last night, and Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne, and Bruce Carter all looked the part of a faster, more capable unit. This allowed many other members of the defense to be able to accomplish their job more effectively as the chain reaction had the best-case scenario results that Jerry was hoping for when he invested in his corners. We certainly want to see this play out for a much bigger sample size before we declare the defense much-improved and intimidating, but given that they did something no Cowboys defense has done in a long time - slow down Eli Manning - one would have to like the early returns.
* 3rd Wide Receiver was another position on this team that has caused a fair level of consternation, and perhaps we learned another lesson in patience. For it was in the 4th year of Miles Austin (2009) that he finally contributed large amounts to the cause. And last night, in the 4th season of Kevin Ogletree, when many had declared that we had seen enough to know what he was all about, that he was the focal point of a Cowboys aerial attack that finally decided to do what elite offenses do in the NFL: Attack without mercy any weak links on the opposition. How many times have we spent the day after a game wondering why the Cowboys do not punish teams for playing reserves like the Saints, Colts, and Patriots do? Surely, you remember Pete Hunter lining up for Seattle in a playoff game just days after working in an office in Dallas. And did the Cowboys attack Hunter in that 2006 affair? Hardly. But, this time, with corners named Michael Coe and Justin Tryon looking unsure on the Giants' flanks, Romo decided to go right at them. And Ogletree was the main beneficiary, with 11 targets and 8 catchers for 114 yards and 2 Touchdowns. He got his big opportunity and never let any of the other 3rd WR candidates get a sniff. He kept them on the sideline from early in the game and caught almost every ball thrown at him, with the majority coming on simple slant patterns that were rather easy conversions. Then, when they sat on the slant, he ran a stutter-and-go route for a huge touchdown down the sideline against the Giants best corner, Corey Webster.
* Perhaps last, and not least, was the way the Cowboys conducted themselves with a 7-point lead and the ball with 2:31 to go in the game. The Giants had 2 timeouts and the 2-minute warning, so they knew that they were likely to get the ball back with a full 2 minutes left if they simply stopped the Cowboys offense one time. For those of us who follow Dallas closely, we could only remember last year's attempts at the 4-minute drill (the sequence at the end of the game where you have the ball and the lead. Killing the clock is your objective, knowing 1 1st down likely kills the game). The 2 attempts at proper 4-minute drill that were top of mind from 2011 were at New England and home against these same Giants. In both cases, the Cowboys had the ball and the lead. A simple 1st down and the game ends. But, in New England, they played scared and tentative - not wanting to risk an interception, so 3 feeble runs and a punt left the game in Tom Brady's hands. Patriots win. Then, we have that fateful night in Arlington last December, when the Cowboys had the NFC East with a 1st Down, but a 3rd Down pass to Austin fell incomplete and Eli Manning made them pay dearly.
So, could they run a proper 4-minute drill? Would Jason Garrett play the percentages and run 3 times and punt? Well, on 3rd and 2, it looked like his star running back, DeMarco Murray had the game won. But, Jason Witten was caught holding Antrel Rolle. So, they were walked back and facing a 3rd and 10, Garrett was going to have his conviction tested. Does he trust his QB who is playing an unbelievably strong game or would he play the percentages, call a draw play, and depend on his defense to bring home the game? He gave Romo one throw to win the game, and Romo hits Ogletree on yet another slant. Move the chains. Game over.
I saw many things I liked last night. Strong debuts from new Cowboys. A very strong effort from the defense. Great response to adversity when it hit on the first drive of the night.
But, more than anything, I absolutely loved how Jason Garrett realized that his best way to win on the road is to attack. Seek out the weak links of the Giants defense and expose them all night long. Don't act like you have a QB who is inexperienced or incapable. Act like you have a playmaker who has been around the block long enough and a guy who can get you out of trouble. Trust your QB. And make the opposition beat you. Too many times in 2011, the Cowboys played conservative and close to the vest. They took the ball away from Romo and asked their defense to stop Brady or Eli. They got so scared of a few turnovers, that they ignored the fact that he threw 31 Touchdowns.
Last night, they asked the Giants to stop their offense. And the Giants were ill-equipped to do so. In fact, the Giants last stop of the game came with about 5 minutes to go in the 2nd Quarter. After that, they did not stop the Cowboys offense on a single drive.
That is a show of strength that we haven't seen in a few years. And that is with Witten barely playing, Austin just returning, and Ogletree making the first big contribution of his career. DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant both have star qualities that can make this offense pretty special if they can figure things out. And the new offensive line interior of Nate Livings, Ryan Cook, and Mackenzy Bernadeau might actually be 3 large veterans who can bring this whole thing together.
Yes, it is just one game. One game that pretty much everyone had in the loss column.
But, now, it makes you wonder if the coach and QB fully realize what they might be capable of.
Labels:
Cowboys 2012,
FSSW,
Morning After
Tuesday, September 04, 2012
Eli Owns Dallas
December 14, 2008 was the last win at Texas Stadium for the Dallas Cowboys franchise. The game was played against Eli Manning and the New York Giants. In that month, December 2008, almost nothing went right for the Cowboys. But, one thing that did was this Sunday Night affair against their bitter rivals.
In that game, the Cowboys battered, bruised, and flat-out beat up Manning to the tune of 8 sacks. DeMarcus Ware had 3. Greg Ellis had 2.5. Bradie James and Chris Canty each had 1, and 2nd year LB Anthony Spencer even picked up one half of a sack. The Cowboys won that game 20-8, over the then Super Bowl Champion Giants, and felt that they had cracked the code on how to beat the younger Manning brother: Beat him up. But, since we have mentioned Texas Stadium and Greg Ellis in the opening 2 paragraphs of this story, it has been a while since that night.
Since then, the two teams have squared off 6 times. Manning has won 5 of them, losing to Cowboys' back-up QB Jon Kitna in Jason Garrett's 1st game as head coach in 2010.
And since that night, the New York Giants have run 230 pass plays against the Cowboys 3-4 defense. And in those 230 passes over the span of 3 seasons and 6 games, the Cowboys have sacked Manning 4 times or once every 57.5 pass plays (as a comparison, the Cowboys averaged a sack every 14 pass attempts against the league last year). And to make it much, much worse, over those 230 pass plays, DeMarcus Ware has 3.5 of the 4 sacks. That's right. The rest of the Cowboys defense, with 230 chances at getting to the QB, only Jason Hatcher has tallied even half of a sack. Pitiful may not properly sum up this reality.
So, the pressure does not get to the QB without blitzing. And when blitzing, Eli can get rid of the ball to exactly the proper place, ripping the cornerbacks of the Cowboys to shreds. Have a look at the game log of Eli since that fateful night at Texas Stadium:
That is unreal. His AVERAGE game against the Cowboys over the last 3 seasons: 24-38-365-2-1 for a QB rating of 101. That is average, as he has done much better than that.
The NFL is a matchup league. Teams play in a division that requires them to see the rest of their division twice a year. Therefore, it is mandatory that as you build your team and plan drafts and free agency every year, you must consider those teams that you will see every single year. Twice.
And in the case of the Giants and the Cowboys, we are going through a period of time where it seems rather clear that the Giants hold some rather substantial matchup issues on both sides of the ball. It has been and will be well documented how the Cowboys offensive line has very little success keeping the Giants DL off of Tony Romo (9 sacks against in 2011). But, perhaps it has not been properly investigated that the Giants hold a similar, fundamental advantage in this matchup because the Cowboys defense, regardless of coordinator, has had no good answer against Eli Manning.
What is interesting to note is that Washington has had great success in slowing down Eli Manning as he has a NFL average QB rating against Washington of 80. Against Philadelphia, he is 1-5 since 2009. But, against the Cowboys, he has all day and shreds the defense so much so that nobody thought it was out of line that he autographed the wall in the Cowboys visiting locker-room in Arlington. He really does own them. But, it should also be noted that Washington has 10 sacks in 3 seasons. Philadelphia 13 sacks. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have 4.
And yet, when you examine the numbers, it seems disingenuous to simply blame the pass rush. In fact, the Cowboys seemed to speak with their actions this spring that they believe Eli Manning owns them because their secondary was not good enough. It is worth noting that from 2009-2011, the top 3 corners on the Cowboys remained the same: Terence Newman, Mike Jenkins, and Orlando Scandrick.
And, time after time, he lit all of their rears on fire whenever they played. Jenkins was the least burned, but his health kept him off the field for almost half of the action. But overall, Eli could throw in any direction. Take a look - Here are the numbers for the 6 games combined when Manning threw the ball at a particular Cowboys' corner (numbers courtesy of ProFootballFocus):
Clearly, Eli Manning loved playing the Cowboys because he loved throwing at the corners.
First, the plays against Terence Newman, where Eli would seek out #41 and his "off and soft" techniques and seek him again and again. Sometimes, he would go after him to a fault and he almost threw away last season's game in Arlington, but a pass that hit Newman between the numbers fell harmlessly to the ground. But in 48 passes at Newman over 6 games (8 per), he amassed nearly 500 yards or over 80 per game. What is also worth noting is that none of these corners were able to stay on the field. All 3 of them missed at least 97 snaps in these games due to bangs, bruises, and breathers.
The Cowboys knew that this was an issue and so did anyone watching. Newman's diminished performance was one of the worst kept secrets going around in Cowboys land. So, in free agency, the Cowboys made a tremendous upgrade when they paid Brandon Carr to join their side for $50m. This should challenge Manning with a physical corner who has both the size and the speed to take things away on occasions where the Cowboys wish to press.
But, take a look at the slot. Last week, I was under the impression that Orlando Scandrick might have been able to prevent the long TD pass to Victor Cruz last season with some better slot technique against the option routes of the Giants.
However, after doing the research and reviewing Manning vs Scandrick over 3 years, I was reminded about the nights that Steve Smith dominated Scandrick before Cruz was even in the league. Scandrick may be a reasonable slot receiver and a player who they did not need to focus on replacing, but Scandrick against the Giants has had a pork chop hanging around his neck. A line of 31-43-405 and 5 touchdowns against 0 interceptions equals a QB rating that approaches perfection. The receivers have changed against Scandrick, but the QB and the corner remain the same in the slot, and Eli loves to throw at #32.
These numbers - the idea that Manning has thrown for 500 yards against Newman and 400 more against Scandrick - reveal the issues that Wade Phillips and Rob Ryan have faced when playing him. Either they try to get pressure and risk the secondary being undermanned, or they fortify the secondary and give Eli all day to pick them apart. Either way, they are dead.
And the proof is on the scoreboard, where the Cowboys held the Giants to under 31 points in a game just once in the last 6 meetings. And, in this league, when you give up 31 points or more, you lose. Since 2009, the Cowboys have allowed 31 points on 11 occasions, and are 1-10 (lone win at Indianapolis in 2010, 38-35 (overtime)).
With Carr and the 1st round pick, Mo Claiborne, the Cowboys have now invested in the corner position to a point that it risked other spots on the field to be ignored (OL). With Claiborne, it is more of a long play than a fix for the immediate nature of Wednesday night. Corners, no matter how special and talented, endure a growing process filled with pains, lessons, and tests against veteran QBs. And you can bet that on Wednesday, it will be up to Claiborne to answer all of the questions that are asked of him when Rob Ryan decides to leave him on an island with whoever he is being asked to blanket. Rookie corners always get welcomed to the NFL in the most unkind way possible.
To me, Eli Manning is one of the most complicated QBs to rate in the NFL. He does things that the very best QBs don't do that detract from his greatness. He reminds you of what Jimmy Johnson used to say about league MVP, Brett Favre: He will throw a few to us if we are patient. Manning always mixes in a few plays that could be disastrous. In Super Bowl 42, the Patriots had the game in their hands but Asante Samuel dropped the sure pick. Newman did Manning the same favor last December. As did the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game last January.
He is not near flawless, but I have also decided to stop betting against him. He is better than I have been willing to admit over these last many seasons. I even spent an entire blog on the man and my opinion of him last season.
But, in Dallas, the biggest argument for him is not that he has 2 rings (although that is a rather large argument). The biggest argument for Eli Manning in Dallas is that he owns the Cowboys. He has unreasonable success against the team that loathes him the most. And no matter how they try to slow him down, he wears that smirk and throws another touchdown.
With no Newman to kick around anymore, and 2 very important pieces at the corner position, it will be most interesting to see what posture the Cowboys defense brings into this battle. The good news is that the bar is 365 yards and 31 points. Anything south of either of those 2 numbers will be considered better than usual. The bad news is just how low that bar is right now.
In that game, the Cowboys battered, bruised, and flat-out beat up Manning to the tune of 8 sacks. DeMarcus Ware had 3. Greg Ellis had 2.5. Bradie James and Chris Canty each had 1, and 2nd year LB Anthony Spencer even picked up one half of a sack. The Cowboys won that game 20-8, over the then Super Bowl Champion Giants, and felt that they had cracked the code on how to beat the younger Manning brother: Beat him up. But, since we have mentioned Texas Stadium and Greg Ellis in the opening 2 paragraphs of this story, it has been a while since that night.
Since then, the two teams have squared off 6 times. Manning has won 5 of them, losing to Cowboys' back-up QB Jon Kitna in Jason Garrett's 1st game as head coach in 2010.
And since that night, the New York Giants have run 230 pass plays against the Cowboys 3-4 defense. And in those 230 passes over the span of 3 seasons and 6 games, the Cowboys have sacked Manning 4 times or once every 57.5 pass plays (as a comparison, the Cowboys averaged a sack every 14 pass attempts against the league last year). And to make it much, much worse, over those 230 pass plays, DeMarcus Ware has 3.5 of the 4 sacks. That's right. The rest of the Cowboys defense, with 230 chances at getting to the QB, only Jason Hatcher has tallied even half of a sack. Pitiful may not properly sum up this reality.
So, the pressure does not get to the QB without blitzing. And when blitzing, Eli can get rid of the ball to exactly the proper place, ripping the cornerbacks of the Cowboys to shreds. Have a look at the game log of Eli since that fateful night at Texas Stadium:
| Date | Result | C-A-Yds-TD-INT | Rating | Sacked |
| 9/20/09 | Win | 25-38-330-2-0 | 110.6 | 0 |
| 12/06/09 | Win | 11-25-241-2-1 | 88.9 | 1 |
| 10/25/11 | Win | 25-35-306-4-3 | 100.4 | 1 |
| 11/14/10 | Loss | 33-48-373-2-2 | 88.3 | 0 |
| 12/11/11 | Win | 27-47-400-2-1 | 90.7 | 0 |
| 1/1/12 | Win | 24-33-346-3-0 | 136.7 | 2 |
| Totals | 5-1 | 145-226-1996-15-7 | 101.6 | 4 |
That is unreal. His AVERAGE game against the Cowboys over the last 3 seasons: 24-38-365-2-1 for a QB rating of 101. That is average, as he has done much better than that.
The NFL is a matchup league. Teams play in a division that requires them to see the rest of their division twice a year. Therefore, it is mandatory that as you build your team and plan drafts and free agency every year, you must consider those teams that you will see every single year. Twice.
And in the case of the Giants and the Cowboys, we are going through a period of time where it seems rather clear that the Giants hold some rather substantial matchup issues on both sides of the ball. It has been and will be well documented how the Cowboys offensive line has very little success keeping the Giants DL off of Tony Romo (9 sacks against in 2011). But, perhaps it has not been properly investigated that the Giants hold a similar, fundamental advantage in this matchup because the Cowboys defense, regardless of coordinator, has had no good answer against Eli Manning.
What is interesting to note is that Washington has had great success in slowing down Eli Manning as he has a NFL average QB rating against Washington of 80. Against Philadelphia, he is 1-5 since 2009. But, against the Cowboys, he has all day and shreds the defense so much so that nobody thought it was out of line that he autographed the wall in the Cowboys visiting locker-room in Arlington. He really does own them. But, it should also be noted that Washington has 10 sacks in 3 seasons. Philadelphia 13 sacks. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have 4.
And yet, when you examine the numbers, it seems disingenuous to simply blame the pass rush. In fact, the Cowboys seemed to speak with their actions this spring that they believe Eli Manning owns them because their secondary was not good enough. It is worth noting that from 2009-2011, the top 3 corners on the Cowboys remained the same: Terence Newman, Mike Jenkins, and Orlando Scandrick.
And, time after time, he lit all of their rears on fire whenever they played. Jenkins was the least burned, but his health kept him off the field for almost half of the action. But overall, Eli could throw in any direction. Take a look - Here are the numbers for the 6 games combined when Manning threw the ball at a particular Cowboys' corner (numbers courtesy of ProFootballFocus):
| Vs Corner | C-A-Yds-TD-INT | Rating | Snaps |
| Vs Newman | 29-48-498-4-1 | 114.6 | 333/430 |
| Vs Jenkins | 17-29-237-0-1 | 70.6 | 249/430 |
| Vs Scandrick | 31-43-409-5-0 | 140.5 | 330/430 |
Clearly, Eli Manning loved playing the Cowboys because he loved throwing at the corners.
First, the plays against Terence Newman, where Eli would seek out #41 and his "off and soft" techniques and seek him again and again. Sometimes, he would go after him to a fault and he almost threw away last season's game in Arlington, but a pass that hit Newman between the numbers fell harmlessly to the ground. But in 48 passes at Newman over 6 games (8 per), he amassed nearly 500 yards or over 80 per game. What is also worth noting is that none of these corners were able to stay on the field. All 3 of them missed at least 97 snaps in these games due to bangs, bruises, and breathers.
The Cowboys knew that this was an issue and so did anyone watching. Newman's diminished performance was one of the worst kept secrets going around in Cowboys land. So, in free agency, the Cowboys made a tremendous upgrade when they paid Brandon Carr to join their side for $50m. This should challenge Manning with a physical corner who has both the size and the speed to take things away on occasions where the Cowboys wish to press.
But, take a look at the slot. Last week, I was under the impression that Orlando Scandrick might have been able to prevent the long TD pass to Victor Cruz last season with some better slot technique against the option routes of the Giants.
However, after doing the research and reviewing Manning vs Scandrick over 3 years, I was reminded about the nights that Steve Smith dominated Scandrick before Cruz was even in the league. Scandrick may be a reasonable slot receiver and a player who they did not need to focus on replacing, but Scandrick against the Giants has had a pork chop hanging around his neck. A line of 31-43-405 and 5 touchdowns against 0 interceptions equals a QB rating that approaches perfection. The receivers have changed against Scandrick, but the QB and the corner remain the same in the slot, and Eli loves to throw at #32.
These numbers - the idea that Manning has thrown for 500 yards against Newman and 400 more against Scandrick - reveal the issues that Wade Phillips and Rob Ryan have faced when playing him. Either they try to get pressure and risk the secondary being undermanned, or they fortify the secondary and give Eli all day to pick them apart. Either way, they are dead.
And the proof is on the scoreboard, where the Cowboys held the Giants to under 31 points in a game just once in the last 6 meetings. And, in this league, when you give up 31 points or more, you lose. Since 2009, the Cowboys have allowed 31 points on 11 occasions, and are 1-10 (lone win at Indianapolis in 2010, 38-35 (overtime)).
With Carr and the 1st round pick, Mo Claiborne, the Cowboys have now invested in the corner position to a point that it risked other spots on the field to be ignored (OL). With Claiborne, it is more of a long play than a fix for the immediate nature of Wednesday night. Corners, no matter how special and talented, endure a growing process filled with pains, lessons, and tests against veteran QBs. And you can bet that on Wednesday, it will be up to Claiborne to answer all of the questions that are asked of him when Rob Ryan decides to leave him on an island with whoever he is being asked to blanket. Rookie corners always get welcomed to the NFL in the most unkind way possible.
To me, Eli Manning is one of the most complicated QBs to rate in the NFL. He does things that the very best QBs don't do that detract from his greatness. He reminds you of what Jimmy Johnson used to say about league MVP, Brett Favre: He will throw a few to us if we are patient. Manning always mixes in a few plays that could be disastrous. In Super Bowl 42, the Patriots had the game in their hands but Asante Samuel dropped the sure pick. Newman did Manning the same favor last December. As did the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game last January.
He is not near flawless, but I have also decided to stop betting against him. He is better than I have been willing to admit over these last many seasons. I even spent an entire blog on the man and my opinion of him last season.
But, in Dallas, the biggest argument for him is not that he has 2 rings (although that is a rather large argument). The biggest argument for Eli Manning in Dallas is that he owns the Cowboys. He has unreasonable success against the team that loathes him the most. And no matter how they try to slow him down, he wears that smirk and throws another touchdown.
With no Newman to kick around anymore, and 2 very important pieces at the corner position, it will be most interesting to see what posture the Cowboys defense brings into this battle. The good news is that the bar is 365 yards and 31 points. Anything south of either of those 2 numbers will be considered better than usual. The bad news is just how low that bar is right now.
Labels:
Cowboys 2012,
Eli,
FSSW,
Rob Ryan
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Roster to 53 - Version 3.0 (Final)
The "Morning After" column after the final preseason game is all about gathering all the information that we have and constructing the final roster. That is my mission this morning.
Trying to predict an NFL roster cuts requires a major ingredient for accuracy sake that is never readily available. That is being able to read the mind of the guys in that war room who are arguing for or against a certain player making the team. I really enjoy this exercise of trying to find the final 53, but it is a highly subjective contest, like predicting the winner of a art or cooking contest. Unless you fully understand the tastes and opinions of the judges or decision makers, you are not on the right path. It is not necessarily the best 53 player. It is the best 53 according to Jerry Jones, Stephen Jones, Jason Garrett, Tom Ciskowski and any other voices at Valley Ranch who have a little decision-making leverage (Rob Ryan).
So, as I watched the practices, scrimmage, and pre-season games, that becomes the challenge. The easy part is identifying how many players they are likely to take at a given position, pick what you perceive to be the best players at that position, and cutting everyone else. But, we know it is not that easy. We have to factor in other ideas. Age, salary, potential, rare traits, and things like eligibility to play on the practice squad. You must get down to 53, but the Injured Reserve and Physically Unable To Peform lists also help you to massage that number without exposing a given player to the rest of the league (like the elected to do with Bill Nagy a few weeks back).
Today, I want to take one final run at the final roster and briefly discuss each player that is on the fence for the roster. As is the case every year, there are some easy cuts and some very difficult ones. But, most important thing to remember is that I can certainly not predict what is going on inside Jerry Jones' head. If I could, I would have told him not to do the Roy Williams trade or to agree to the Papa John's rap commercial.
It is also worth noting that every year, but this year in particular, the Cowboys are likely looking at cuts from around the league to crack the Cowboys final roster. That means, the final roster (By 8pm Friday night) will not be the final roster. A guy could make the 53, only to be replaced by Sunday or Monday. It happens every year. I anticipate the Cowboys will sign someone else's cut offensive tackle over the weekend, but there is no way to predict that.
One final time, let me show you my chart from their last 5 roster cuts to show how the Cowboys think philosophically in the department of roster construction:
2007: 26 Offense/24 Defense/3 Specialist
2008: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2009: 25 Offense/24 Defense/4 Specialist
2010: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2011: 26 Offense/23 Defense/4 Specialist
Sources: Archer 2007 , Archer 2008 , MacMahon 2009, Archer 2010, and Watkins 2011.
Yesterday, I identified 32 players as guys who had already made the team. As opposed to discussing obvious choices, let's just all agree that there is virtually no chance the following players are not on the final Cowboys roster.
They are: D Bryant, M Austin, T Smith, N Livings, P Costa, M Bernadeau, D Free, J Witten, T Romo, L Vickers, D Murray, J Phillips, J Hanna, K Orton, and F Jones on offense. J Ratliff, J Hatcher, A Spencer, S Lee, D Ware, B Carr, B Church, G Sensabaugh, M Claiborne, T Crawford, V Butler, B Carter, O Scandrick, and S Lissemore. And 3 specialists. C Jones, D Bailey and LP Ladouceur. Those 32 make the team without question, in my estimation.
That leaves 21 jobs on the line from 43 players.
Here are those jobs:
#33 - Kevin Ogletree: He has done enough to make the squad as a versatile WR who has built up some trust. It is still a big year from him and he could fall out of favor in just a few weeks, but for now, I don't see a scenario under which he is not on the roster.
#34 - Dwayne Harris: Similarly, Harris offers versatility, special teams contributions, and enough plays made from the slot and the outside to suggest that he is comfortably on the roster.
#35 - Jeremy Parnell: I am almost to the point on Parnell that I think he is ready to spot start a few games if injuries happen. I think he has proven to be a shrewd signing and a player they extended on a nice number through 2014 as a swing tackle who will dress and be active every game.
#36 - Mike Jenkins: There is no reason not to keep Jenkins around unless you get a great offer. Corners get injured. To have a reserve ready who has this many starts under his belt is a rare luxury. Alan Ball and Bryan McCann played significant snaps last season and the Cowboys are actually prepared to survive injuries this year at corner. Also, dime defense is a bigger and bigger unit in the NFL these days.
#37 - Dan Conner: He has not blown anyone away with his camp, but I assume his bonus and his resume assures him a spot. He also looks like a guy who will spend some time on the kickoff and punt teams as time goes on. If Bruce Carter doesn't take Conner's spot away soon, that will tell us more about Carter. Conner should be fine, but we have seen that teams will attack him through the air and try to isolate him. He looks solid, but I have my questions about how much better things will be with him over James and Brooking.
#38 - Danny McCray: He is the modern day Sam Hurd (on the field) in that he will be a special teams captain and hold that unit together. He also has a knack for being around the ball when he is put on the field in the big nickel (5 DBs but 3 safeties) and can pull off some LB when he needs to. Versatility and trust-worthy are two attributes that make this team. McCray is safe with ease.
#39 - Josh Brent: Can't teach size. The Cowboys want more impact from Brent, but big guys require patience. He has a chance to be overtaken by Lissemore on the nose and even Callaway, but for now, they like his upside and youth.
#40 - Mario Butler: The surprise of camp for me. I had little regard for his courage, physical traits, and nose for the ball a month ago. Now, I am comfortable with him as a 4th corner if Jenkins leaves. Very nice find.
#41 - Alex Albright: Again, versatility and trust-worthy. A guy who plays on all special teams and a guy who can play inside and outside LB. Another nice job by the personnel department to find Alex.
#42 - Mana Silva: This guy has emerged out of nowhere. Silva was not on my radar at all until Matt Johnson's train never left the depot. But, he is just the type of guy who can play on all special teams and appears to have some upside as a deep safety. I like what I have seen and continue to wish to see more. It is possible the Cowboys have stumbled upon something nice here.
#43 - Ronald Leary: Leary makes the team as a developmental interior offensive line guy, but I must confess that he has been a pretty big disappointment so far. This idea that he was a ready-made NFL guard just isn't true. He is constantly being beat at the line and even turned around in some scenarios. His bonus was large and we must be patient with big guys, but I don't see much in 2012 to plan on. He is the first of the "will make the 53 but don't plan on seeing him active much" group.
#44 - Orie Lemon: I think he makes the team as a special teams pillar. Dependable and can play inside.
#45 - Cole Beasley: I concede that I didn't see this as a possibility in July, but now as I predict what the Cowboys are thinking, I just don't see Jerry and Stephen allowing his weaknesses to deter them. Not sure where this leads, but he will get his chance to make an impact in Week 1. Quite a story of defying odds here.
#46 - Kenyon Coleman: As I have stated over and over, I think either Coleman or Spears is done here. I also concede that Spears is more likely to stay if contracts or age are the difference, but I think Coleman is better at the job of "early down run stuffing". So, I don't have a ton of confidence in this pick, but I am going to go with football over dollars. And if plays over cap hits wins, it is Coleman. But, Spears may survive on being younger and having more guaranteed money.
#47 - Daniel Loper: This one could also be iffy, but I think Loper is a better football player than Derrick Dockery. If I dress 7 or 8 on game day, I think Loper is more likely to fill in for an injured guard and do fine. They both are veterans, so both would make $825,000 if they made the team. Which one do you like more to dress every game? For me, it is Loper. But, I concede that Jerry talks about Dockery more.
#48 - Adrian Hamilton: Controversial, but if a LBs best attribute is pass rushing, I think you owe it to yourself to teach him special teams. He may be inactive at first, but I have no confidence he could sneak through to the practice squad. You must protect him if you think he has anything, and I belive he has shown enough to invest in. However, when things get tight, I do admit that his spot will be looked at very carefully.
#49 - David Arkin: Here is a player that I would not keep due to obvious concerns with strength. However, they invested a 4th in him and have built at least some confidence that he could play center in a pinch. I just don't see him ever being much at guard. That being said, their candidates at center if Costa gets hurt again is a very, very short list. On that alone, I think Arkin is safe for now.
#50 - Phillip Tanner: He is useful as a 3rd RB and as a special teams guy. I think he made it, despite missing plenty of preseason action.
#51 - Kyle Wilbur: Despite his injury, I think you owe it to yourself to protect him and add another quality OLB prospect to your pile. He makes my team.
#52 - Danny Coale: Again, I am going to trust my scouts who loved him on draft day. He has been hurt, but he also has credibility based on 4 years at Virginia Tech and a resume of being a valuable piece. It has been a tough start, but I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bath water. He makes it over Andre Holmes for now, by an eyelash.
#53 - Shaun Chapas: This is the guy in biggest jeopardy on the waiver wire. If the Cowboys find something they like more that comes along, then Chapas will be first voted off the island, I think. Otherwise, he is another trustworthy special teams piece on game-day.
That is the 53 man roster.
========================
To Injured Reserve/PUP - Matt Johnson: I believe Johnson will be retained and basically red-shirted for 2012. He has too much to offer to expose him to the league yet.
========================
And now, those who missed the cut:
#54 - Andre Holmes: This is not an easy cut, but I am already keeping 6 WRs and Holmes is the one who Beasley beat out. This violates every rule of scouting due to Holmes speed, height, and flashes of sensational play, but consistency and dependability have bitten him. Practice Squad?
#55 - Jamize Olawale: Could possibly take Chapas' job, but I don't think he did enough on special teams to convince the Cowboys to take a chance. Definitely a practice squad candidate.
#56 - Rob Callaway: I wanted to keep Big Rob. I like what he has, but I think it comes down to Callaway or Brent. I think with Lissemore, they won't keep both. And, Brent was the guy who had to be unseated.
#57 - Lance Dunbar: Useful piece, just can't keep another undersized player on my 53. Those guys who cannot play special teams but also have no role on your offense cannot sit unused on your active roster. Practice Squad.
#58 - Marcus Spears: Good locker-room guy and respected team-mate. But, there is no justification of the $2 million salary that I can detect.
#59 - Clifton Geathers: I see the amazing frame. I don't see plays that go with it. They have shown patience here and I think cutting bait is the proper move.
#60 - Ben Bass: Useful prospect who might make it to the practice squad for now.
#61 - Tim Benford: He has something, but there is no place for him. Practice Squad candidate.
The rest are far easier cuts for me: S Hakim, J Adams, H Gunn, P McQuistan, D Dockery, A Szczerba, S McGee, R Carpenter, B Atkins, L Smith, A Owusu-Ansah, E Whitley, T Williams. Of these, I think Carpenter and Williams might hang around for the practice squad, too.
Noteworthy of the above group is that Owusu Ansah and McQuistan have both been brought back for another look after being released and their play in preseason just confirmed what the Cowboys saw when they cut them loose last time.
So, that is what I came up with. Odds are very good that I will not predict the Cowboys thinking accurately, but it is fun to try.
By position, I kept 2 QB, 5 RB, 3 TE, 6 WR, 9 OL, 6 DL, 10 LB, 9 DB, and 3 specialists. Admittedly, 10 LBs seems awful thick, so perhaps a trade could happen from that group because they all have value. Also, 6 DL is a bit light, so a Callaway for a LB swap (Lemon or Hamilton) is not out of the question, either. And Chapas might only be around until they take the best available tackle off waivers.
Feel free to comment below or Email me at sturm1310@me.com to take issue.
Trying to predict an NFL roster cuts requires a major ingredient for accuracy sake that is never readily available. That is being able to read the mind of the guys in that war room who are arguing for or against a certain player making the team. I really enjoy this exercise of trying to find the final 53, but it is a highly subjective contest, like predicting the winner of a art or cooking contest. Unless you fully understand the tastes and opinions of the judges or decision makers, you are not on the right path. It is not necessarily the best 53 player. It is the best 53 according to Jerry Jones, Stephen Jones, Jason Garrett, Tom Ciskowski and any other voices at Valley Ranch who have a little decision-making leverage (Rob Ryan).
So, as I watched the practices, scrimmage, and pre-season games, that becomes the challenge. The easy part is identifying how many players they are likely to take at a given position, pick what you perceive to be the best players at that position, and cutting everyone else. But, we know it is not that easy. We have to factor in other ideas. Age, salary, potential, rare traits, and things like eligibility to play on the practice squad. You must get down to 53, but the Injured Reserve and Physically Unable To Peform lists also help you to massage that number without exposing a given player to the rest of the league (like the elected to do with Bill Nagy a few weeks back).
Today, I want to take one final run at the final roster and briefly discuss each player that is on the fence for the roster. As is the case every year, there are some easy cuts and some very difficult ones. But, most important thing to remember is that I can certainly not predict what is going on inside Jerry Jones' head. If I could, I would have told him not to do the Roy Williams trade or to agree to the Papa John's rap commercial.
It is also worth noting that every year, but this year in particular, the Cowboys are likely looking at cuts from around the league to crack the Cowboys final roster. That means, the final roster (By 8pm Friday night) will not be the final roster. A guy could make the 53, only to be replaced by Sunday or Monday. It happens every year. I anticipate the Cowboys will sign someone else's cut offensive tackle over the weekend, but there is no way to predict that.
One final time, let me show you my chart from their last 5 roster cuts to show how the Cowboys think philosophically in the department of roster construction:
| Position | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| QB | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| RB | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| TE | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| WR | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| OL | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| DL | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| LB | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| DB | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| ST | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Total | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 |
2007: 26 Offense/24 Defense/3 Specialist
2008: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2009: 25 Offense/24 Defense/4 Specialist
2010: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2011: 26 Offense/23 Defense/4 Specialist
Sources: Archer 2007 , Archer 2008 , MacMahon 2009, Archer 2010, and Watkins 2011.
Yesterday, I identified 32 players as guys who had already made the team. As opposed to discussing obvious choices, let's just all agree that there is virtually no chance the following players are not on the final Cowboys roster.
They are: D Bryant, M Austin, T Smith, N Livings, P Costa, M Bernadeau, D Free, J Witten, T Romo, L Vickers, D Murray, J Phillips, J Hanna, K Orton, and F Jones on offense. J Ratliff, J Hatcher, A Spencer, S Lee, D Ware, B Carr, B Church, G Sensabaugh, M Claiborne, T Crawford, V Butler, B Carter, O Scandrick, and S Lissemore. And 3 specialists. C Jones, D Bailey and LP Ladouceur. Those 32 make the team without question, in my estimation.
That leaves 21 jobs on the line from 43 players.
Here are those jobs:
#33 - Kevin Ogletree: He has done enough to make the squad as a versatile WR who has built up some trust. It is still a big year from him and he could fall out of favor in just a few weeks, but for now, I don't see a scenario under which he is not on the roster.
#34 - Dwayne Harris: Similarly, Harris offers versatility, special teams contributions, and enough plays made from the slot and the outside to suggest that he is comfortably on the roster.
#35 - Jeremy Parnell: I am almost to the point on Parnell that I think he is ready to spot start a few games if injuries happen. I think he has proven to be a shrewd signing and a player they extended on a nice number through 2014 as a swing tackle who will dress and be active every game.
#36 - Mike Jenkins: There is no reason not to keep Jenkins around unless you get a great offer. Corners get injured. To have a reserve ready who has this many starts under his belt is a rare luxury. Alan Ball and Bryan McCann played significant snaps last season and the Cowboys are actually prepared to survive injuries this year at corner. Also, dime defense is a bigger and bigger unit in the NFL these days.
#37 - Dan Conner: He has not blown anyone away with his camp, but I assume his bonus and his resume assures him a spot. He also looks like a guy who will spend some time on the kickoff and punt teams as time goes on. If Bruce Carter doesn't take Conner's spot away soon, that will tell us more about Carter. Conner should be fine, but we have seen that teams will attack him through the air and try to isolate him. He looks solid, but I have my questions about how much better things will be with him over James and Brooking.
#38 - Danny McCray: He is the modern day Sam Hurd (on the field) in that he will be a special teams captain and hold that unit together. He also has a knack for being around the ball when he is put on the field in the big nickel (5 DBs but 3 safeties) and can pull off some LB when he needs to. Versatility and trust-worthy are two attributes that make this team. McCray is safe with ease.
#39 - Josh Brent: Can't teach size. The Cowboys want more impact from Brent, but big guys require patience. He has a chance to be overtaken by Lissemore on the nose and even Callaway, but for now, they like his upside and youth.
#40 - Mario Butler: The surprise of camp for me. I had little regard for his courage, physical traits, and nose for the ball a month ago. Now, I am comfortable with him as a 4th corner if Jenkins leaves. Very nice find.
#41 - Alex Albright: Again, versatility and trust-worthy. A guy who plays on all special teams and a guy who can play inside and outside LB. Another nice job by the personnel department to find Alex.
#42 - Mana Silva: This guy has emerged out of nowhere. Silva was not on my radar at all until Matt Johnson's train never left the depot. But, he is just the type of guy who can play on all special teams and appears to have some upside as a deep safety. I like what I have seen and continue to wish to see more. It is possible the Cowboys have stumbled upon something nice here.
#43 - Ronald Leary: Leary makes the team as a developmental interior offensive line guy, but I must confess that he has been a pretty big disappointment so far. This idea that he was a ready-made NFL guard just isn't true. He is constantly being beat at the line and even turned around in some scenarios. His bonus was large and we must be patient with big guys, but I don't see much in 2012 to plan on. He is the first of the "will make the 53 but don't plan on seeing him active much" group.
#44 - Orie Lemon: I think he makes the team as a special teams pillar. Dependable and can play inside.
#45 - Cole Beasley: I concede that I didn't see this as a possibility in July, but now as I predict what the Cowboys are thinking, I just don't see Jerry and Stephen allowing his weaknesses to deter them. Not sure where this leads, but he will get his chance to make an impact in Week 1. Quite a story of defying odds here.
#46 - Kenyon Coleman: As I have stated over and over, I think either Coleman or Spears is done here. I also concede that Spears is more likely to stay if contracts or age are the difference, but I think Coleman is better at the job of "early down run stuffing". So, I don't have a ton of confidence in this pick, but I am going to go with football over dollars. And if plays over cap hits wins, it is Coleman. But, Spears may survive on being younger and having more guaranteed money.
#47 - Daniel Loper: This one could also be iffy, but I think Loper is a better football player than Derrick Dockery. If I dress 7 or 8 on game day, I think Loper is more likely to fill in for an injured guard and do fine. They both are veterans, so both would make $825,000 if they made the team. Which one do you like more to dress every game? For me, it is Loper. But, I concede that Jerry talks about Dockery more.
#48 - Adrian Hamilton: Controversial, but if a LBs best attribute is pass rushing, I think you owe it to yourself to teach him special teams. He may be inactive at first, but I have no confidence he could sneak through to the practice squad. You must protect him if you think he has anything, and I belive he has shown enough to invest in. However, when things get tight, I do admit that his spot will be looked at very carefully.
#49 - David Arkin: Here is a player that I would not keep due to obvious concerns with strength. However, they invested a 4th in him and have built at least some confidence that he could play center in a pinch. I just don't see him ever being much at guard. That being said, their candidates at center if Costa gets hurt again is a very, very short list. On that alone, I think Arkin is safe for now.
#50 - Phillip Tanner: He is useful as a 3rd RB and as a special teams guy. I think he made it, despite missing plenty of preseason action.
#51 - Kyle Wilbur: Despite his injury, I think you owe it to yourself to protect him and add another quality OLB prospect to your pile. He makes my team.
#52 - Danny Coale: Again, I am going to trust my scouts who loved him on draft day. He has been hurt, but he also has credibility based on 4 years at Virginia Tech and a resume of being a valuable piece. It has been a tough start, but I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bath water. He makes it over Andre Holmes for now, by an eyelash.
#53 - Shaun Chapas: This is the guy in biggest jeopardy on the waiver wire. If the Cowboys find something they like more that comes along, then Chapas will be first voted off the island, I think. Otherwise, he is another trustworthy special teams piece on game-day.
That is the 53 man roster.
========================
To Injured Reserve/PUP - Matt Johnson: I believe Johnson will be retained and basically red-shirted for 2012. He has too much to offer to expose him to the league yet.
========================
And now, those who missed the cut:
#54 - Andre Holmes: This is not an easy cut, but I am already keeping 6 WRs and Holmes is the one who Beasley beat out. This violates every rule of scouting due to Holmes speed, height, and flashes of sensational play, but consistency and dependability have bitten him. Practice Squad?
#55 - Jamize Olawale: Could possibly take Chapas' job, but I don't think he did enough on special teams to convince the Cowboys to take a chance. Definitely a practice squad candidate.
#56 - Rob Callaway: I wanted to keep Big Rob. I like what he has, but I think it comes down to Callaway or Brent. I think with Lissemore, they won't keep both. And, Brent was the guy who had to be unseated.
#57 - Lance Dunbar: Useful piece, just can't keep another undersized player on my 53. Those guys who cannot play special teams but also have no role on your offense cannot sit unused on your active roster. Practice Squad.
#58 - Marcus Spears: Good locker-room guy and respected team-mate. But, there is no justification of the $2 million salary that I can detect.
#59 - Clifton Geathers: I see the amazing frame. I don't see plays that go with it. They have shown patience here and I think cutting bait is the proper move.
#60 - Ben Bass: Useful prospect who might make it to the practice squad for now.
#61 - Tim Benford: He has something, but there is no place for him. Practice Squad candidate.
The rest are far easier cuts for me: S Hakim, J Adams, H Gunn, P McQuistan, D Dockery, A Szczerba, S McGee, R Carpenter, B Atkins, L Smith, A Owusu-Ansah, E Whitley, T Williams. Of these, I think Carpenter and Williams might hang around for the practice squad, too.
Noteworthy of the above group is that Owusu Ansah and McQuistan have both been brought back for another look after being released and their play in preseason just confirmed what the Cowboys saw when they cut them loose last time.
So, that is what I came up with. Odds are very good that I will not predict the Cowboys thinking accurately, but it is fun to try.
By position, I kept 2 QB, 5 RB, 3 TE, 6 WR, 9 OL, 6 DL, 10 LB, 9 DB, and 3 specialists. Admittedly, 10 LBs seems awful thick, so perhaps a trade could happen from that group because they all have value. Also, 6 DL is a bit light, so a Callaway for a LB swap (Lemon or Hamilton) is not out of the question, either. And Chapas might only be around until they take the best available tackle off waivers.
Feel free to comment below or Email me at sturm1310@me.com to take issue.
Labels:
Cowboys 2012,
FSSW,
Roster
Monday, August 27, 2012
The Dez Bryant News Archive
Primarily for my personal use, I am have compiled a Dez Bryant news archive so that I can remember everything. I am sure not all of this is his fault (or is even newsworthy), but wow he can keep the media busy.
I am attempting to keep this news archive to merely stories that are not directly related to catching the football stories.
Feel free to remind me what I have missed, and I will add them if you email or comment a link.
October 7, 2009 - Dez Bryant in big trouble at Oklahoma State
February 28, 2010 - Bryant is always late for practice and a risky pick
March 30, 2010 - Bryant runs, posts slow times at personal workouts - forgets shoes
April 23, 2010 - Bryant has an irregular heartbeat
April 28, 2010 - Jeff Ireland asks Dez if his mother as a prostitute...then apologizes
May 1, 2010 - Dez is winded and puking at rookie mini-camp
May 3, 2010 - Angela Bryant wants apology, but also has some new law problems
May 19, 2010 - Dez Bryant is wearing Nike after signing 2 year deal with Under Armour 3 months ago
May 27, 2010 - Bryant misses mini camp practice....and then...
May 27, 2010 - Dunks on people that night at basketball game
July 22, 2010 - Dez Bryant and Cowboys agree to a 5-year contract
July 24, 2010 - Dez tells David Moore that Roy Williams and Bryant will not be pitted against eachother
July 25, 2010 - Dez Bryant refuses to carry Roy Williams shoulder pads
July 26, 2010 - Under Armour and Dez break up
September 28, 2010 - Dez Bryant pays $54,000 for a team dinner
November 16, 2010 - Dez Bryant loses his earring in the New Meadowlands and has it found by a security guard
December 6, 2010 - Bryant refuses to talk to reporters, prompting Jerry to say Dez needs to mature
March 22, 2011 - Dez gets kicked out of NorthPark Mall for wearing his pants too low
March 25, 2011 - Deion says he's separated himself from Dez
March 28, 2011 - Two parties come forward to sue Bryant over his debts for jewlery and tickets
May 2, 2011 - Dez Doesn't show at facility when almost everyone else does
June 6, 2011 - Despite his claims, Dez still owes money to jewelers
July 15, 2011 - Dez Bryant no shows for a card show that he was paid for
July 30, 2011 - Bryant started off on the wrong foot. He was late to the first team meeting of training camp.
August 2, 2011 - Dez proud of maturing and having a quiet camp
August 22, 2011 - Dez gets in a fight near the locker room with his girlfriend
October 4, 2011 - Dez dissed by Jim Schwartz of Detroit
October 13, 2011 - Dez misses preseason drug test, is cleared
October 21, 2011 - Romo defends Dez not getting the ball in 2nd half
October 21, 2011 - At 2-3, Dez proclaims the Cowboys "unbeatable"
November 4, 2011 - Dez not interested in changing his sideline demeanor after rants in Philadelphia
November 11, 2011 - Jerry calls drafting of Bryant "frustrating and elating" and exactly what he expected
November 13, 2011 - Dez thinks the Cowboys have best WR group in the NFL
December 26, 2011 - Dez hires Rosenhaus, breaks up with Eugene Parker
December 29, 2011 - Stephen Jones would like Dez to “get his hands around what he’s doing off the field.”
December 30, 2011 - Jerry makes sure Dez' latest lawsuit is paid up in full
January 17, 2012 - Dez involved in physical altercation and detained by police at Club LIV in Miami
July 16, 2012 - Dez Bryant was arrested Monday by DeSoto police on a family violence charge.
August 3, 2012 - Reports indicate that Dez has hired Eugene Parker to replace Rosenhaus.
August 21, 2012 - Reports circulate about Drew Rosenhaus offering cash on draft night.
August 27, 2012 - Dez agrees to a new code of conduct and claims to be paying for it.
I am attempting to keep this news archive to merely stories that are not directly related to catching the football stories.
Feel free to remind me what I have missed, and I will add them if you email or comment a link.
October 7, 2009 - Dez Bryant in big trouble at Oklahoma State
February 28, 2010 - Bryant is always late for practice and a risky pick
March 30, 2010 - Bryant runs, posts slow times at personal workouts - forgets shoes
April 23, 2010 - Bryant has an irregular heartbeat
April 28, 2010 - Jeff Ireland asks Dez if his mother as a prostitute...then apologizes
May 1, 2010 - Dez is winded and puking at rookie mini-camp
May 3, 2010 - Angela Bryant wants apology, but also has some new law problems
May 19, 2010 - Dez Bryant is wearing Nike after signing 2 year deal with Under Armour 3 months ago
May 27, 2010 - Bryant misses mini camp practice....and then...
May 27, 2010 - Dunks on people that night at basketball game
July 22, 2010 - Dez Bryant and Cowboys agree to a 5-year contract
July 24, 2010 - Dez tells David Moore that Roy Williams and Bryant will not be pitted against eachother
July 25, 2010 - Dez Bryant refuses to carry Roy Williams shoulder pads
July 26, 2010 - Under Armour and Dez break up
September 28, 2010 - Dez Bryant pays $54,000 for a team dinner
November 16, 2010 - Dez Bryant loses his earring in the New Meadowlands and has it found by a security guard
December 6, 2010 - Bryant refuses to talk to reporters, prompting Jerry to say Dez needs to mature
March 22, 2011 - Dez gets kicked out of NorthPark Mall for wearing his pants too low
March 25, 2011 - Deion says he's separated himself from Dez
March 28, 2011 - Two parties come forward to sue Bryant over his debts for jewlery and tickets
May 2, 2011 - Dez Doesn't show at facility when almost everyone else does
June 6, 2011 - Despite his claims, Dez still owes money to jewelers
July 15, 2011 - Dez Bryant no shows for a card show that he was paid for
July 30, 2011 - Bryant started off on the wrong foot. He was late to the first team meeting of training camp.
August 2, 2011 - Dez proud of maturing and having a quiet camp
August 22, 2011 - Dez gets in a fight near the locker room with his girlfriend
October 4, 2011 - Dez dissed by Jim Schwartz of Detroit
October 13, 2011 - Dez misses preseason drug test, is cleared
October 21, 2011 - Romo defends Dez not getting the ball in 2nd half
October 21, 2011 - At 2-3, Dez proclaims the Cowboys "unbeatable"
November 4, 2011 - Dez not interested in changing his sideline demeanor after rants in Philadelphia
November 11, 2011 - Jerry calls drafting of Bryant "frustrating and elating" and exactly what he expected
November 13, 2011 - Dez thinks the Cowboys have best WR group in the NFL
December 26, 2011 - Dez hires Rosenhaus, breaks up with Eugene Parker
December 29, 2011 - Stephen Jones would like Dez to “get his hands around what he’s doing off the field.”
December 30, 2011 - Jerry makes sure Dez' latest lawsuit is paid up in full
January 17, 2012 - Dez involved in physical altercation and detained by police at Club LIV in Miami
July 16, 2012 - Dez Bryant was arrested Monday by DeSoto police on a family violence charge.
August 3, 2012 - Reports indicate that Dez has hired Eugene Parker to replace Rosenhaus.
Of course owner Jerry Jones offered up cautious point in June when asked about Bryant’s incident-free offseason up to that time, "As soon as you note that, the next morning you’ve got one."
August 21, 2012 - Reports circulate about Drew Rosenhaus offering cash on draft night.
August 27, 2012 - Dez agrees to a new code of conduct and claims to be paying for it.
Labels:
Cowboys 2012,
Dez Bryant
Saturday, August 25, 2012
Cowboys Mailbag - 8/25
Let's get back to responding to your emails and tweets for another week. I cannot promise we will have time to do one of these each week, but hopefully on Friday or Saturday, we can roll out a few responses before covering another game is upon us as we roll through another NFL season starring your Dallas Cowboys.
Here are today's items:
Thanks, Erik.
These are a few topics I feel very strongly about. There is no question in following this team that at times they have chosen to throw their resources at skill positions rather than in the trenches. The 2008 draft followed by the Roy Williams trade a few months later that not only further invested in skill positions, but did so at the expense of the 2009 draft continues to haunt this team's depth. That, in turn, caused them to allocate even more resources to trade up to get Dez Bryant. Meanwhile, the offensive and defensive lines eroded to the point of being among the weakest links on the roster.
I have not heard Mike Mayock's views on the Cowboys defensive line. However, I would be shocked to hear anyone rank them among the NFL's elite. In their division alone I would see the overall DL groups in New York and Philadelphia as far superior. And I cannot imagine too many people would disagree with that point.
However, I feel that going into the 2012 season, I am as optimistic about this group as I have been in years. Jay Ratliff is the constant, but now he has high-motor players with natural skills like Tyrone Crawford and Sean Lissemore joining a veteran like Jason Hatcher who appears to be breaking out before our eyes. Hopefully the days of Marcus Spears and Igor Olshansky just taking up space and not really impacting plays or freeing up space for LBs to fly in and make plays are behind us. I don't think Kenyon Coleman or Marcus Spears are locks to make the squad and that is a good thing. I have nothing against them, but the competition level has been so low around here for so long on the DL that the veterans have kept their jobs without being challenged by anyone behind them in the depth chart. It appears that situation is changing. It appears they have players who are young and explosive now in the group. Are Robert Callaway and Ben Bass in that group, too? We shall see on cutdown day, but I am excited about what they are building now.
As for Costa and his room for improvement, I have gone to great lengths to point out his issues on the OL. He was not strong enough and that became a problem as the season wore on and as word got out to the league what the Cowboys issues were. Understand, when a defensive coaching staff sits in a meeting room they are asking two questions: What is the offense's greatest strength and what is the offense's greatest weakness? They want to game-plan to take away the strength and expose the weakness. So, as 2011 went on, I believe the circle was right on the starting interior OL of the Cowboys. Costa was at the center of that target. He had strength issues, confidence issues, and recognition issues. And as the year came along, there was a ton of twisting, stunting, and blitzing right at Costa and his A-gaps. There is no sympathy in this league. If a guy is struggling, the opponent is now going to find a way to ambush the player with their best player. You might remember the stunt the Eagles pulled off that almost destroyed Romo early in Week 16 when Jason Babin stunted inside right at Costa. It wasn't pretty.
Are the Cowboys better equipped this year to handle the challenges? We shall see. Everyone says he is very smart and very determined. They are confident he can handle the line calls and blitz assignments. And most of all, their confidence is higher because of 2 veteran guards who were signed to flank him and help with those A-gaps. We will wait and see before we declare it fixed.
Well, Dave, we must start with an overall view of how the NFL personnel system works. Both Amendola and Beasley are undrafted free agents. This year, every team goes to camp with 90 players. Given that 53 make the team, that means 37 do not for each of the 32 teams. That means 1,184 players will be cut during training camp alone in the NFL. That number is staggering and should demonstrate just how difficult it is to make a roster in any capacity.
As an aside, I am prone to arguments on the radio show I work for (the Bob and Dan show, 12p-3p Weekdays, on Sportsradio 1310 the Ticket in Dallas). And this week, we started to discuss the fact that Bobby Carpenter appears to be on his way to making the New England Patriots roster. In fact, he could be their 4th linebacker. In most circles, Carpenter is certainly thought of as a bust for not living up to his level of expectation after his 1st round selection in the 2006 NFL Draft. And there is no question that when selected, the Cowboys were sure they were taking a safe pick who could start for them for many years at linebacker. He was a quality college player and had the bloodlines to say this may not be a superstar, but he will be a strong player for years.
However, we all know that he is near the top of worst personnel moves in the last decade around here and his name is mud locally. That wasn't the argument. The debate was started when I made the claim that at some point, you would have to declare his career salvaged as he continues to make NFL rosters. Yes, his level of expectation was very high because some team or teams thought he was worthy of a Top 20 pick. But, when a guy is playing in the NFL for 7 seasons, that constitutes a nice career for anyone who hopes to play football for a living. If he can make it to the 10 year mark then I think there is no question. Donovan Lewis argued that he has stunk his whole career and therefore cannot be considered as having something to be proud of. Perhaps we were arguing 2 different things, but I hold to the idea that making a roster in the NFL is very, very difficult. To do it 10 years in a row suggests that whoever does it, they have put together a career to be proud of. Not Hall of Fame worthy nor Ring of Honor worthy. But to make 10 NFL teams constitutes a very nice accomplishment in my book. This may be a discussion that falls on deaf ears, but I think too often we like to marginalize things that are very impressive if you stop to think about 1,184 players being cut in the next 10 days.
Anyway, back to Dave's question, remember that since Amendola and Beasley were undrafted, that made them automatic long-shots to make the roster. I think the term "camp bodies" would apply as they are usually there to make sure that during the grind of training camp, the league wants to make sure that even during times of mass injuries, the teams still have enough healthy bodies to run a successful camp practice. So, they allow teams to bring along more players than are actually needed. That is different than having a chance to earn a job, although some of these players do make their way through the cracks and into the mix to make the team. As you know, no teams has been happier with undrafted free agents than the Cowboys over the last decade. To find a franchise-leading Quarterback and a top receiver from that same bin of scraps that were passed over about 250 times in the draft is quite remarkable and frankly quite difficult.
So, understand that they throw numbers at a given job. They did not spend a pick on Amendola. They spent a 6th rounder on Dwayne Harris. This is a resource used, but hardly a premium resource as the odds of a 6th rounder having an impact are still quite difficult for most to overcome. Then, this year, they invite Cole Beasley to compete for one of the many jobs as well. One thing you learn about the NFL is that there is always competition. These jobs are difficult to get and more difficult to keep. So, no, I don't think it is ever a bad idea to push Dwayne Harris and make him hold off competition at camp this year rather than offer the baseball mentality that preaches patience. In that sport, you may bring a guy along slowly through the minor leagues. In the NFL, you are either ready or you are unemployed. Every year. Every week. It is a very tough business. And that is why I think at some point, Bobby Carpenter deserves some credit for being a bust in 2006, but still a member of the league in 2012 and perhaps, beyond.
Yes, sir. I have plans of making Splash Plays part of the weekly breakdown for each game. On a normal Sunday game, the plan is to write the "Morning After" essay on Monday, continue our "Decoding Garrett" series on Tuesday, Examine the defense and the splash plays on Wednesday, study a X's and O's moment from the game on Thursday, and then end the week with a game plan/mailbag column on Friday or Saturday. At least, that is my goal before I realize that I cannot pull all of that off. But, I shall try.
For those that missed it, I highly recommend you spend time on the Splash Play Series. Here they are: Part 1 - Part 2 - Part 3 - and - Part 4.
Or, if you just want to see the database for all splash plays in 2011, click here for that.
And one more on Splash Plays:
I totally agree, Kevin. I think I need to figure this part out a bit better. Perhaps we need to define a normal splash from a super splash or something. Thanks for bringing it up and I will try to designate that for 2012 improvements.
Enjoy the St Louis game (assuming that one can enjoy a preseason game) and enjoy your weekend.
Here are today's items:
Bob-
Love your writing and analysis. I’ve got two questions which should both tee up nicely with your view of Cowboys football. I agree with you, and the Giants/Steelers, that the game is fairly simple and is won in the trenches. For some reason, the Cowboys seem to think that that the game is won on the outside with WRs & DBs. The novice would say that the Cowboys are just clueless, a premise I’ve shared on many occasions. But I have to give Garret, the Jones’, and the Scouts some more credit than that.
We’ve heard both JJ & Ryan slobber over the Cowboys D-line, which has to be taken with a grain of salt. But I also saw a quote from Mike Mayock (a dude that sounds really smart) talk about the Cowboys’ SB quality D-line. My 1st question: now that you have closely analyzed the 2011 season, do you still believe that the Dallas D-line is substandard?
On the other side of the equation, everyone agrees that the interior o-line last year was worthless. So the Cowboys made moves, albeit modest, to address the OG position in the offseason. For some reason, the center position was effectively ignored. My 2nd question: would it be possible to look at Costa’s performance from last year? Is it possible that he was improving enough throughout the season to convince the Cowboys that he could be an effective starter?
Obviously, I’m trying comprehend Dallas’ offseason moves….
Thanks and keep up the great work!
Erik
Thanks, Erik.
These are a few topics I feel very strongly about. There is no question in following this team that at times they have chosen to throw their resources at skill positions rather than in the trenches. The 2008 draft followed by the Roy Williams trade a few months later that not only further invested in skill positions, but did so at the expense of the 2009 draft continues to haunt this team's depth. That, in turn, caused them to allocate even more resources to trade up to get Dez Bryant. Meanwhile, the offensive and defensive lines eroded to the point of being among the weakest links on the roster.
I have not heard Mike Mayock's views on the Cowboys defensive line. However, I would be shocked to hear anyone rank them among the NFL's elite. In their division alone I would see the overall DL groups in New York and Philadelphia as far superior. And I cannot imagine too many people would disagree with that point.
However, I feel that going into the 2012 season, I am as optimistic about this group as I have been in years. Jay Ratliff is the constant, but now he has high-motor players with natural skills like Tyrone Crawford and Sean Lissemore joining a veteran like Jason Hatcher who appears to be breaking out before our eyes. Hopefully the days of Marcus Spears and Igor Olshansky just taking up space and not really impacting plays or freeing up space for LBs to fly in and make plays are behind us. I don't think Kenyon Coleman or Marcus Spears are locks to make the squad and that is a good thing. I have nothing against them, but the competition level has been so low around here for so long on the DL that the veterans have kept their jobs without being challenged by anyone behind them in the depth chart. It appears that situation is changing. It appears they have players who are young and explosive now in the group. Are Robert Callaway and Ben Bass in that group, too? We shall see on cutdown day, but I am excited about what they are building now.
As for Costa and his room for improvement, I have gone to great lengths to point out his issues on the OL. He was not strong enough and that became a problem as the season wore on and as word got out to the league what the Cowboys issues were. Understand, when a defensive coaching staff sits in a meeting room they are asking two questions: What is the offense's greatest strength and what is the offense's greatest weakness? They want to game-plan to take away the strength and expose the weakness. So, as 2011 went on, I believe the circle was right on the starting interior OL of the Cowboys. Costa was at the center of that target. He had strength issues, confidence issues, and recognition issues. And as the year came along, there was a ton of twisting, stunting, and blitzing right at Costa and his A-gaps. There is no sympathy in this league. If a guy is struggling, the opponent is now going to find a way to ambush the player with their best player. You might remember the stunt the Eagles pulled off that almost destroyed Romo early in Week 16 when Jason Babin stunted inside right at Costa. It wasn't pretty.
Are the Cowboys better equipped this year to handle the challenges? We shall see. Everyone says he is very smart and very determined. They are confident he can handle the line calls and blitz assignments. And most of all, their confidence is higher because of 2 veteran guards who were signed to flank him and help with those A-gaps. We will wait and see before we declare it fixed.
Bob:
The Cowboys drafted Amendola, but then let him go - only to see him thrive now in St. Louis. In light of that, I can understand them drafting Harris. However, why do they take Beasely before they even see how Harris develops? Basically, while I like them both, I don't see them both making the roster. How many small guys can you carry? Nobody will trade for one of these guys, they'll just pick them up at cuts. Odds are they already knew that they'd be going with Holmes, Harris, Ogletree or a vet at cuts, so couldn't we have benefited more from taking a player a position of greater need? Say OL?
Dave in Richmond, VA
Well, Dave, we must start with an overall view of how the NFL personnel system works. Both Amendola and Beasley are undrafted free agents. This year, every team goes to camp with 90 players. Given that 53 make the team, that means 37 do not for each of the 32 teams. That means 1,184 players will be cut during training camp alone in the NFL. That number is staggering and should demonstrate just how difficult it is to make a roster in any capacity.
As an aside, I am prone to arguments on the radio show I work for (the Bob and Dan show, 12p-3p Weekdays, on Sportsradio 1310 the Ticket in Dallas). And this week, we started to discuss the fact that Bobby Carpenter appears to be on his way to making the New England Patriots roster. In fact, he could be their 4th linebacker. In most circles, Carpenter is certainly thought of as a bust for not living up to his level of expectation after his 1st round selection in the 2006 NFL Draft. And there is no question that when selected, the Cowboys were sure they were taking a safe pick who could start for them for many years at linebacker. He was a quality college player and had the bloodlines to say this may not be a superstar, but he will be a strong player for years.
However, we all know that he is near the top of worst personnel moves in the last decade around here and his name is mud locally. That wasn't the argument. The debate was started when I made the claim that at some point, you would have to declare his career salvaged as he continues to make NFL rosters. Yes, his level of expectation was very high because some team or teams thought he was worthy of a Top 20 pick. But, when a guy is playing in the NFL for 7 seasons, that constitutes a nice career for anyone who hopes to play football for a living. If he can make it to the 10 year mark then I think there is no question. Donovan Lewis argued that he has stunk his whole career and therefore cannot be considered as having something to be proud of. Perhaps we were arguing 2 different things, but I hold to the idea that making a roster in the NFL is very, very difficult. To do it 10 years in a row suggests that whoever does it, they have put together a career to be proud of. Not Hall of Fame worthy nor Ring of Honor worthy. But to make 10 NFL teams constitutes a very nice accomplishment in my book. This may be a discussion that falls on deaf ears, but I think too often we like to marginalize things that are very impressive if you stop to think about 1,184 players being cut in the next 10 days.
Anyway, back to Dave's question, remember that since Amendola and Beasley were undrafted, that made them automatic long-shots to make the roster. I think the term "camp bodies" would apply as they are usually there to make sure that during the grind of training camp, the league wants to make sure that even during times of mass injuries, the teams still have enough healthy bodies to run a successful camp practice. So, they allow teams to bring along more players than are actually needed. That is different than having a chance to earn a job, although some of these players do make their way through the cracks and into the mix to make the team. As you know, no teams has been happier with undrafted free agents than the Cowboys over the last decade. To find a franchise-leading Quarterback and a top receiver from that same bin of scraps that were passed over about 250 times in the draft is quite remarkable and frankly quite difficult.
So, understand that they throw numbers at a given job. They did not spend a pick on Amendola. They spent a 6th rounder on Dwayne Harris. This is a resource used, but hardly a premium resource as the odds of a 6th rounder having an impact are still quite difficult for most to overcome. Then, this year, they invite Cole Beasley to compete for one of the many jobs as well. One thing you learn about the NFL is that there is always competition. These jobs are difficult to get and more difficult to keep. So, no, I don't think it is ever a bad idea to push Dwayne Harris and make him hold off competition at camp this year rather than offer the baseball mentality that preaches patience. In that sport, you may bring a guy along slowly through the minor leagues. In the NFL, you are either ready or you are unemployed. Every year. Every week. It is a very tough business. And that is why I think at some point, Bobby Carpenter deserves some credit for being a bust in 2006, but still a member of the league in 2012 and perhaps, beyond.
Bob,
I really enjoyed the Splash Play Series.
My question; will you be tracking Splash Plays during the season? I hope you do.
Enjoy the Raider game,
Gregory Smith
Union City, CA
Yes, sir. I have plans of making Splash Plays part of the weekly breakdown for each game. On a normal Sunday game, the plan is to write the "Morning After" essay on Monday, continue our "Decoding Garrett" series on Tuesday, Examine the defense and the splash plays on Wednesday, study a X's and O's moment from the game on Thursday, and then end the week with a game plan/mailbag column on Friday or Saturday. At least, that is my goal before I realize that I cannot pull all of that off. But, I shall try.
For those that missed it, I highly recommend you spend time on the Splash Play Series. Here they are: Part 1 - Part 2 - Part 3 - and - Part 4.
Or, if you just want to see the database for all splash plays in 2011, click here for that.
And one more on Splash Plays:
Newman’s pick - 1 splash play or two?
I knew exactly what you meant by splash plays. We had them in high school but we received stars on a chart when we made them. On one play, I made 3.
I tackled the RB five yards in the backfield, knocked the ball loose and then recovered the fumble. Coach said the only thing I could have done differently is scored a TD.
I got one for the tackle for loss.
I got one for causing the fumble.
And one for recovering the fumble.
I think I should have gotten two. The tackle and the strip were the same thing. The fumble recovery normally isn’t by the guy who brings the ball carrier to the ground and I did wrap him up and take him to the ground before jumping over on the ball.
If someone scores on defense, is the score a 2nd splash play? You have to admit a pick-six or a fumble recovery for a TD is not the same as an interception or a fumble recovery.
Kevin
I totally agree, Kevin. I think I need to figure this part out a bit better. Perhaps we need to define a normal splash from a super splash or something. Thanks for bringing it up and I will try to designate that for 2012 improvements.
Enjoy the St Louis game (assuming that one can enjoy a preseason game) and enjoy your weekend.
Labels:
Cowboys 2012,
Emails,
FSSW,
splash plays
Friday, August 24, 2012
Roster to 53 - Version 2.0
The NFL released another run down of their important dates on Wednesday, reminding us when the most important dates are on the calendar. Those of us with a case of myopia will focus mostly on the upcoming cutdown dates and plan accordingly to get our local NFL teams down to the required roster sizes. Here are the 3 dates that are top of mind:
Keeping in mind that the Cowboys have 2 more preseason games that are jammed close together tomorrow (Aug 25) and then next Wednesday (Aug 29), we quickly see that the pro personnel department is going to be plenty busy with the jobs of making cuts, predicting and planning for cuts from around the league, and building a practice squad all in the next 8 days time.
There will be hundreds of transactions, and a good personnel department will be able to instantly hear a name that they missed out on in a previous draft that they can take a chance on and pull the trigger - at the expense of someone that fought hard to make this team in front of their eyes for the last 5 weeks.
It is not an easy job or one that allows for a whole lot of time with the family this time of year. Your scouts are pouring over preseason film of games from around the league and comparing notes. It is not uncommon to find 2-3 pieces from other team's cuts that you like better than the 52nd and 53rd man in your own camp.
And that is what makes these 53 man projections a bit silly (although I happily partake). A final 53 man roster is an absurd statement. There should never be a "final 53" man roster. In fact, as we have seen, the 53-man roster is completed, with players celebrating and calling home to report that they made it; Only to be informed 12 hours later that they have been released for a player the team just claimed from Jacksonville or Detroit. Unless a team is holding a Lombardi trophy, no roster is ever "final". And players can be happy to survive a cut, but the fact is that many players must go to work every day wondering if they will still be employed on Sunday (when another paycheck is earned).
But, with all of that being said, I plan on offering a look at what I think the 53 man will be today and then in 1 week to see how well our eyeballs are seeing what the personnel department is seeing from camp and the preseason games. Clearly, the fact that I left California 2 weeks ago today will not help my projections from the work done in San Diego in the practices with the Chargers, but we will do the best we can.
So, let's get started:
First, I will reprint the chart I use to show how this Cowboys' personnel department has arrived at 53 in the past 5 years by position:
2007: 26 Offense/24 Defense/3 Specialist
2008: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2009: 25 Offense/24 Defense/4 Specialist
2010: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2011: 26 Offense/23 Defense/4 Specialist
Sources: Archer 2008 , Archer 2007 , MacMahon 2009, Archer 2010, and Watkins 2011.
Now, with that in mind, let's dive in:
Quarterbacks (2): Tony Romo, Kyle Orton - Rudy Carpenter is practice-squad eligible, and we should keep that top of mind. I don't see any reason to pay Orton what the Cowboys did and still to carry 3 QBs unless the 3rd is a prospect that really excites me. I do like Stephen McGee, but at this point of his career, with a contract needed soon if you like him, it sure looks like the end of the road is very near.
Running Backs (4): DeMarco Murray, Felix Jones, Phillip Tanner, Lawrence Vickers - I keep looking for that 5th from this group, but so far I am not convinced. Shaun Chapas is in a ton of special teams in San Diego and Jamize Olawale is playing more and more, but I still am not sure that either are in. We need to take careful note of the special teams on Saturday Night again.
Wide Receivers (6): Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Andre Holmes, Dwayne Harris, Danny Coale, Kevin Ogletree - I realize after Cole Beasely put together a monster 4th Quarter in San Diego that he should be on this list, but I still am nost sure I am sold. Andre Holmes is playing on most of the special teams so I think he has the team made without even catching a pass. Danny Coale vs Cole Beasley is going to be the test for the final spot as I am now feeling like they will carry 6. So, does Beasley catch and pass Coale? Well, for 2,000 words on the topic, please make sure you read what I spent time on early this week right here. In the end, barring another injury setback to Coale, I will likely risk getting Beasley to the practice squad, as I think he is the most likely to not be claimed due to his prohibitive size and special teams. Perhaps a few months or a season on the practice squad can develop Beasley into a more sure thing on returns. However, all of this can still change in the next 8 days.
Tight Ends (3): Jason Witten, John Phillips, James Hanna - I really liked seeing James Hanna on all of the special teams in San Diego. This is his way for now. He must be a good special teams soldier in year 1 and do what Phillips has done since 2009 and will continue to do - be a spine member of all 4 special teams. That was good news.
Offensive Line (10): Tyron Smith, Doug Free, Nate Livings, Mackenzy Bernadeau, Phil Costa, Ronald Leary, Jermey Parnell, David Arkin, Daniel Loper, Kevin Kowalski - I no longer can buy the idea of Pat McQuistan making this squad. A big body is not enough to make this team. I recognize they need a 4th tackle, but I would rather take my chances finding one on the waiver wire. I am too heavy at guard in this cutdown, so I think Dockery is most likely to go with his veteran contract. Remember, Ronald Leary will likely make the squad given his hefty guaranteed money for an undrafted rookie. Kowalski is in the mix again and Loper looks ready now to make this squad. I really liked his work against the Chargers.
Defensive Line (7): Jay Ratliff, Jason Hatcher, Kenyon Coleman, Sean Lissemore, Tyrone Crawford, Josh Brent, Marcus Spears - I am quite close to moving Robert Callaway to my 53, maybe at the expense of Marcus Spears. Let's watch another preseason game. But, I think I like Callaway and his huge body to make the team. I am having a hard time justifying Coleman and Spears. And, personally, I like Coleman better against the run. Salary-wise, they are close, with Coleman at $1.9m and Spears is at $2m, but the Spears cap hit will be more since they inexplicably gave him a 5-year deal last summer. I have no idea what possessed them on that one.
Line Backers (9): DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Dan Conner, Victor Butler, Kyle Wilbur, Alex Albright, Adrian Hamilton - I will need to protect Wilbur from being claimed if I tried to sneak him through cuts. He wouldn't make it, so he makes the team despite being hurt. Hamilton's pass rush skills are impressive, so he makes the cut over Orie Lemon. However, if you read my piece on special teams from this week - which I hope you do - this is a case where Lemon could be one of those designated special teams spine members.
Defensive Backs (9): Brandon Carr, Orlando Scandrick, Morris Claiborne, Mike Jenkins, Barry Church, Gerald Sensabaugh, Danny McCray, Matt Johnson, Mario Butler- Mario Butler made as strong a move forward as anyone did last Saturday night. He showed impressive closing speed and the willingness to risk his body to make strong tackle moves at the line of scrimmage. In open space, he still needs work, but Butler is showing that he deserves a job on this roster for his versatility at corner, safety, and most importantly can play in all special teams situations. I am now sold.
Specialists (3): Dan Bailey, LP Ladouceur, Chris Jones - I have been told not to sleep on Charley Hughlett to catch LP Ladouceur in the deep snapper race. If all things are equal, LP makes $790k and Hughlett is at $390k, and on a deep snapper, that is a significant difference.
Last 5 to make the cut for me: Coale, Loper, Kowalski, M. Butler, Spears
Players 54-60: Beasley, Callaway, Dockery, Wilson, Olawale, Lemon
Again, it is now poor logic to assume that someone makes the team "by default". If McQuistan is your 4th best tackle and you need to keep 4, you either like him or you don't. The San Diego game confirmed that he is just a guy. I tell my personnel department to find the best tackle that is about to be released and you claim him on September 1.
Two more preseason games to go, but the clock is moving fast now.
August 27 - Clubs must reduce rosters to a maximum of 75 players on Active List prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time.
August 31 - Roster cut-down to maximum of 53 players on Active/Inactive List prior to 9:00 p.m., New York time. Clubs may dress minimum of 43 and maximum of 46 players for each regular season and postseason game.
September 1 - Claiming period for players placed on waivers at the final roster reduction will expire at 12:00 noon, New York time.
Beginning at 12:00 noon, New York time, clubs may establish a Practice Squad of eight players by signing free agents who do not have an accrued season of free agency credit or who were on the 46-player Active List for less than nine regular season games during each of any Accrued Seasons. A player cannot participate on the Practice Squad for more than three seasons.
Keeping in mind that the Cowboys have 2 more preseason games that are jammed close together tomorrow (Aug 25) and then next Wednesday (Aug 29), we quickly see that the pro personnel department is going to be plenty busy with the jobs of making cuts, predicting and planning for cuts from around the league, and building a practice squad all in the next 8 days time.
There will be hundreds of transactions, and a good personnel department will be able to instantly hear a name that they missed out on in a previous draft that they can take a chance on and pull the trigger - at the expense of someone that fought hard to make this team in front of their eyes for the last 5 weeks.
It is not an easy job or one that allows for a whole lot of time with the family this time of year. Your scouts are pouring over preseason film of games from around the league and comparing notes. It is not uncommon to find 2-3 pieces from other team's cuts that you like better than the 52nd and 53rd man in your own camp.
And that is what makes these 53 man projections a bit silly (although I happily partake). A final 53 man roster is an absurd statement. There should never be a "final 53" man roster. In fact, as we have seen, the 53-man roster is completed, with players celebrating and calling home to report that they made it; Only to be informed 12 hours later that they have been released for a player the team just claimed from Jacksonville or Detroit. Unless a team is holding a Lombardi trophy, no roster is ever "final". And players can be happy to survive a cut, but the fact is that many players must go to work every day wondering if they will still be employed on Sunday (when another paycheck is earned).
But, with all of that being said, I plan on offering a look at what I think the 53 man will be today and then in 1 week to see how well our eyeballs are seeing what the personnel department is seeing from camp and the preseason games. Clearly, the fact that I left California 2 weeks ago today will not help my projections from the work done in San Diego in the practices with the Chargers, but we will do the best we can.
So, let's get started:
First, I will reprint the chart I use to show how this Cowboys' personnel department has arrived at 53 in the past 5 years by position:
| Position | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| QB | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| RB | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| TE | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| WR | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| OL | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| DL | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| LB | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| DB | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| ST | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Total | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 |
2007: 26 Offense/24 Defense/3 Specialist
2008: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2009: 25 Offense/24 Defense/4 Specialist
2010: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2011: 26 Offense/23 Defense/4 Specialist
Sources: Archer 2008 , Archer 2007 , MacMahon 2009, Archer 2010, and Watkins 2011.
Now, with that in mind, let's dive in:
Quarterbacks (2): Tony Romo, Kyle Orton - Rudy Carpenter is practice-squad eligible, and we should keep that top of mind. I don't see any reason to pay Orton what the Cowboys did and still to carry 3 QBs unless the 3rd is a prospect that really excites me. I do like Stephen McGee, but at this point of his career, with a contract needed soon if you like him, it sure looks like the end of the road is very near.
Running Backs (4): DeMarco Murray, Felix Jones, Phillip Tanner, Lawrence Vickers - I keep looking for that 5th from this group, but so far I am not convinced. Shaun Chapas is in a ton of special teams in San Diego and Jamize Olawale is playing more and more, but I still am not sure that either are in. We need to take careful note of the special teams on Saturday Night again.
Wide Receivers (6): Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Andre Holmes, Dwayne Harris, Danny Coale, Kevin Ogletree - I realize after Cole Beasely put together a monster 4th Quarter in San Diego that he should be on this list, but I still am nost sure I am sold. Andre Holmes is playing on most of the special teams so I think he has the team made without even catching a pass. Danny Coale vs Cole Beasley is going to be the test for the final spot as I am now feeling like they will carry 6. So, does Beasley catch and pass Coale? Well, for 2,000 words on the topic, please make sure you read what I spent time on early this week right here. In the end, barring another injury setback to Coale, I will likely risk getting Beasley to the practice squad, as I think he is the most likely to not be claimed due to his prohibitive size and special teams. Perhaps a few months or a season on the practice squad can develop Beasley into a more sure thing on returns. However, all of this can still change in the next 8 days.
Tight Ends (3): Jason Witten, John Phillips, James Hanna - I really liked seeing James Hanna on all of the special teams in San Diego. This is his way for now. He must be a good special teams soldier in year 1 and do what Phillips has done since 2009 and will continue to do - be a spine member of all 4 special teams. That was good news.
Offensive Line (10): Tyron Smith, Doug Free, Nate Livings, Mackenzy Bernadeau, Phil Costa, Ronald Leary, Jermey Parnell, David Arkin, Daniel Loper, Kevin Kowalski - I no longer can buy the idea of Pat McQuistan making this squad. A big body is not enough to make this team. I recognize they need a 4th tackle, but I would rather take my chances finding one on the waiver wire. I am too heavy at guard in this cutdown, so I think Dockery is most likely to go with his veteran contract. Remember, Ronald Leary will likely make the squad given his hefty guaranteed money for an undrafted rookie. Kowalski is in the mix again and Loper looks ready now to make this squad. I really liked his work against the Chargers.
Defensive Line (7): Jay Ratliff, Jason Hatcher, Kenyon Coleman, Sean Lissemore, Tyrone Crawford, Josh Brent, Marcus Spears - I am quite close to moving Robert Callaway to my 53, maybe at the expense of Marcus Spears. Let's watch another preseason game. But, I think I like Callaway and his huge body to make the team. I am having a hard time justifying Coleman and Spears. And, personally, I like Coleman better against the run. Salary-wise, they are close, with Coleman at $1.9m and Spears is at $2m, but the Spears cap hit will be more since they inexplicably gave him a 5-year deal last summer. I have no idea what possessed them on that one.
Line Backers (9): DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Dan Conner, Victor Butler, Kyle Wilbur, Alex Albright, Adrian Hamilton - I will need to protect Wilbur from being claimed if I tried to sneak him through cuts. He wouldn't make it, so he makes the team despite being hurt. Hamilton's pass rush skills are impressive, so he makes the cut over Orie Lemon. However, if you read my piece on special teams from this week - which I hope you do - this is a case where Lemon could be one of those designated special teams spine members.
Defensive Backs (9): Brandon Carr, Orlando Scandrick, Morris Claiborne, Mike Jenkins, Barry Church, Gerald Sensabaugh, Danny McCray, Matt Johnson, Mario Butler- Mario Butler made as strong a move forward as anyone did last Saturday night. He showed impressive closing speed and the willingness to risk his body to make strong tackle moves at the line of scrimmage. In open space, he still needs work, but Butler is showing that he deserves a job on this roster for his versatility at corner, safety, and most importantly can play in all special teams situations. I am now sold.
Specialists (3): Dan Bailey, LP Ladouceur, Chris Jones - I have been told not to sleep on Charley Hughlett to catch LP Ladouceur in the deep snapper race. If all things are equal, LP makes $790k and Hughlett is at $390k, and on a deep snapper, that is a significant difference.
Last 5 to make the cut for me: Coale, Loper, Kowalski, M. Butler, Spears
Players 54-60: Beasley, Callaway, Dockery, Wilson, Olawale, Lemon
Again, it is now poor logic to assume that someone makes the team "by default". If McQuistan is your 4th best tackle and you need to keep 4, you either like him or you don't. The San Diego game confirmed that he is just a guy. I tell my personnel department to find the best tackle that is about to be released and you claim him on September 1.
Two more preseason games to go, but the clock is moving fast now.
Labels:
Cowboys 2012,
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