Showing posts with label Cowboys 2011. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cowboys 2011. Show all posts
Monday, June 04, 2018
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
11 for '11 - #11: Newman's Last Night
The Following is the 11th and final entry in an 11-part weekly series throughout the summer that will focus on the eleven plays that shaped 2011 for the Dallas Cowboys. Every game, about 130 actual plays happen and over the course of a season that number can exceed 2,000. But, we have selected 11 and will pick one each week and break it down from standpoint of "X's and O's" and see what we can learn looking back. The plays are not ranked, simply presented as the season unfolded. We hope you enjoy.
When the season comes down to one night, you wish there was just one play that stuck in your mind 9 months later. Unfortunately, this scenario has unfolded a few times in the last several years - Week 17 match-ups involving a divisional opponent on the road for all of the marbles - and neither of them turned out particularly well. This 2011 finale was not nearly as bad a trouncing as the 2008 affair in Philadelphia, but in a match-up where it is win or go home, well, the Cowboys went home on both occasions.
Unlike the play in the home match-up against the Giants that jumped off the page, this game was a series of frustrations. And unfortunately, to many fans of the Dallas Cowboys, this will be the game that will summarize the end of the Terence Newman tenure in Dallas.
Newman, the 5th pick of the 2003 NFL Draft, was a reasonably solid cornerback for the Cowboys for most of his years in town. Trouble is, he was always paid as the best corners in the NFL with a 6 year/$18m entry contract and then a 6/$50m extension signed in 2008. He did not see the final 3 years and $21m on that 2nd deal, but still made nearly $50 million as a Cowboy.
And as a player who was older than most when he was drafted (he was 25 years old when he played his 1st game in the NFL) and his speed started to diminish causing the horrible cycle of one's demise. First the wheels go, then the confidence goes to compensate for the wheels. From there, it is all "off and soft" coverage. And when the confidence goes in the NFL, it is all but over - especially on a squad that doesn't have safeties who can bail you out or offer much support nor a pass rush that can prop you up. And the Cowboys of 2010 and 2011 were not getting much safety play to say the least and too little pressure without a blitz.
So, here is one game to win the division. December has fallen apart, but with a key gut-check win in New York, all will be forgiven and the Cowboys will host a playoff game in 1 week's time.
From the moment the game began, it was pretty clear that the offensive line of the Cowboys was overmatched. Not that injuries were the only reason, but Montrae Holland did not play forcing Derrick Dockery into duty and then Kyle Kosier left with injury pushing Kevin Kowalski into the game, too. It was condition critical from the opening kick for the OL to hold off a Giants DL that got 6 sacks, but looked likely to get 6 more.
If the team was going to be able to compete, the defense would have to win the game. And they were not only beaten, they were demoralized. And Newman was on top of the list of Cowboys' suspects all night long.
Moments before the most memorable play, the Cowboys had the Giants pinned in deep at their own 5 yard-line facing a 3rd Down and 9 yards to go. The Giants were willing to concede a punt and were simply dumping a ball to Bear Pascoe in the flat to get a few more yards for the punter. Instead, with Newman meeting Pascoe 5 yards in front of the marker, Newman bailed out and went low for the legs of the plodding tight end. Pascoe, to the delight of the crowd hurdled Newman and ran easily for the 1st Down. Later in the half, fullback Henry Hynoski would also want a 1st Down more than Newman would want to stop him. Was Newman hurt? Most likely. It seemed that Newman was always dealing with some injury and it often hurt his play.
But, for whatever reason, the Giants 2 least athletic skill position players on their offense took turns beating Newman on a crucial play on their first 3 Touchdown scoring drives of a game they led 21-0. But, the play in the middle of those two demoralizing moments was the one that many of you can see in your sleep. It is Newman getting beat for 75 yards by Victor Cruz for a rather easy Touchdown that opened the floodgates.
The Play: 3-1-N26 (5:11) (Shotgun) E.Manning pass short left to V.Cruz for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Personnel: It is worth noting that on 3rd and 1, the Giants remain in "12" personnel (1RB, 2TE, 2WR) rather than switching to the normal 3rd down personnel package for most teams which is "11" (1RB, 1TE, 3WR). THe explanation is because it is 3rd and short, but the result keeps the Cowboys in a base personnel package rather than switching to nickel by replacing a LB with an extra corner.
So, the Giants put on "12" personnel, the Cowboys leave just 4 DBs on the field, preparing for a 3rd and short run. Then the Giants do what is constantly done in this chess game of the NFL - they spread you out by deploying a TE, Travis Beckum wide right against the Cowboys safety Abram Elam. Then, they put both WRs to the left, making both Cowboys' corners man-up with Hakeem Nicks (Mike Jenkins) and Victor Cruz (Terence Newman). This means Newman is left to play the slot - Something that makes him extremely uncomfortable against a player like Cruz who feeds off the slot game. Just to be clear, if the Giants moved to customary "11" personnel in this spot, they know that the Cowboys would have Scandrick on Cruz. The Giants didn't want that. So that is why they used formation and not personnel to get the match-up they wanted.
Let's look at the routes the Giants have on for this 3rd Down. It is pretty clear that their objective is simply to move the chains, not look for a big play. But, this might be one of the many cases where people (including high-ranking people inside Valley Ranch) accuse Rob Ryan of getting too cute. If a exotic defensive idea works and Eli throws an easy interception, it is a brilliant call. But, if it leads to a play that starts an avalanche, then your DC got too cute.
The Giants want Beckum to run a slant, Cruz in the slot to run a short out to the chains, and Nicks wide left to run a 10 yard stop. Very basic stuff.
Picture #1 - CLICK ON ANY PICTURE FOR ENLARGEMENT
Here is the Cowboys pre-snap plan. They are showing a single-high safety in a Cover 1 posture. But, their plan is to show that and then do something completely different. The Cowboys plan is to have Sean Lee jump Beckum's slant and for Sensabaugh to charge up the field and blow up a slant to Cruz. They want Newman to play outside leverage (line up over the receiver's outside shoulder, forcing him to want to run inside) which will force Cruz to option to an inside route (likely the slant). When this happens, the Cowboys will have 2 men on each quick route that Eli is likely to throw and the Cowboys should be in a position to blow either up.
Picture #2
At the snap in Picture #3, we already see that Newman lost leverage. Newman doesn't get lined up quick enough and Cruz crosses his face on the route with ease to the outside, and now Sensabaugh's gamble leaves him up the field with nobody to defend. Meanwhile, if any pass is completed, the Cowboys have no safeties deep. They are essentially playing a Cover 0, which means that the slightest completion can go for a Touchdown if the first tackle is broken.
Picture #3
Picture #4 shows us how badly Newman lost leverage, as now Cruz has a step on him to the sideline. Eli sees this develop and makes a quick read to Cruz past the 1st Down marker. The Giants left both a RB and a TE in to block, so there is no pressure whatsoever with 7-man protection.
Picture #4
Here is the presnap from the endzone in Picture #5. You see the Cowboys have the 3-4 base defensive look, but they are dropping Lee into Beckum's slant and Ware is not really rushing, but rather playing off the edge receiver and if he stays in to protect, Ware rushes, but if he releases, #94 must go with him. But, also look at Sensabaugh. If this is an ambush, he sprung it too early. His depth of 10 yards indicates to Eli and Cruz that something is up. He must be blitzing, because his normal depth is much deeper than that. In a world where Cruz has option routes all day (where his route is determined by his read of the coverage), it would be easy for the QB and WR to be on the same page and know how to counter this defensive look. From there, if Newman is not cheating to the sideline with outside leverage, then the Giants have a distinct advantage.
Picture #5
Picture #6 shows us the precise moment where Eli is throwing the ball. Look how out of position this play has left Sensabaugh. There is nobody behind him and he is in full sprint to try to catch the play. But, if Cruz has a 5 yard advantage on Sensabaugh and a 2 yard advantage on Newman, neither of those players are going to catch him.
Picture #6
Now the difference between a 4 yard gain and a 74 yard Touchdown is the roll of Hakeem Nicks. Nicks has Jenkins on the outside and once the 1st Down is gained, if Cruz can stay in bounds and turn it up field, Nicks might be able to spring him. He has a choice to either put a "ear-hole" shot on Newman or simply stay with Jenkins as sort of a basketball pick. He chooses to stay with Jenkins and box him out and Cruz is so fast that he just continues north and nobody came close to catching him.
Picture #7
Simply too easy the rest of the way.
Picture #8
Video of the Play
The summary is this: The Cowboys schemed themselves into a bad spot here. They perhaps were frustrated because a few snaps earlier, they had the Giants pinned in deep and Newman was abused by Pascoe. Then, Ryan rolled the dice with a very risky decision to basically go Cover 0 on 3rd and 1. Was that impatience and frustration talking? If Scandrick is on Cruz, does the same thing happen?
Clearly, this game demonstrated why Newman was overdue to be replaced. He was making premium dollars and was a liability in coverage in the biggest game of the season. Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne were major investments and the genesis of those expenditures can be traced back to games like this one.
The team ended the year with a 8-8 record and a trail of tears that were both frustrating and inspired an offseason of moves to try to get the mix correct.
In 7 days, we will see how that has worked.
To review any of the 11 for '11 series, click on the links below:
1. The Revis Interception
2. The Home Run to Holley
3. 3rd And 21 to Dez
4. Megatron's Dominating TD
5. DeMarco Murray's 91 yard Run
6. Eagles Zone Counter Trap
7. Romo's Improv Bomb To Witten
8. Romo's Throw of the Year
9. The Hyphen Screen
10. Lost in the Lights
Monday, August 13, 2012
Splash Plays - Part 4
This is the final blog entry for 2011 Splash Plays as we view every single defensive snap of last year to evaluate who was making plays and who was just taking up space for the Cowboys' defense. There is no question that what we saw in December was far less a dominating defense and far more a part of the problem when it came to asking the question of "why did the Cowboys miss the playoffs?"
Before reveal the new data, let's catch those up who are just now being introduced to this new blog feature that we plan to maintain throughout the 2012 season in this space.
Part 1 - Splash Plays 2011 - Games 1-4
Part 2- Splash Plays 2011 - Games 5-8
Part 3 - Splash Plays 2011 - Games 9-12
What is a Splash Play?
In a short answer, a splash play is a term used in some franchises to describe a defensive big play. For our purposes, it is an interception, a sack, a tackle for loss, a strip of a fumble, a recovery of a fumble, a stuffed run, a defended pass, a batted ball at the line of scrimmage, or a hit that disrupts a play or a player. Essentially, a play that matters from the defense.
Here is the longer answer as we have used in the first few entries:
The Cowboys played 1,053 defensive snaps in 2011. And we have now looked at each and everyone in detail. And, in our logs, we have given chapter and verse of each of them. This way, we invite your reviews if you would like to throw the challenge flag on my system and either ask for one to be added or one to be given to another player. One reader last week actually got a splash play to be re-issued to Victor Butler that had been erroneously given to DeMarcus Ware.
Now, please find the list for every single splash play that we have recorded for Games 13-16:
So, for this segment of games, we found 55 splash plays from the defense which is the lowest production for the season. The final total for the entire season arrived at 242 splash plays, which averaged out to a per game total of 15.125 per game.
It is interesting to note how many plays Anthony Spencer was in on. Over the course of the segment, he led the Cowboys with 9 splash plays. Further, over the course of the year - as you can see below - Spencer trailed only DeMarcus Ware on the entire defense.
When hearing his name discussed amongst Cowboys fans and media, I always hear his name positioned as a huge disappointment. I have always been willing to concede that his sack numbers and overall pass rush skills need to be better, but when you add in all of the other splash plays available - and he seems to blow up more run plays than anyone on the team - Spencer doesn't take a back seat to many.
His full body of work make him very useful. It can be said that the position of outside linebacker is going to always yield more of these plays than other positions in a 3-4 defense and I believe that is true, but still, to reduce Spencer to an anchor who merely holds you back is just not a fair assessment of his play.
Now, let's examine the full season totals:
And now, let's make this post extra long by finding a splash per snap ratio for each Cowboys defender in 2011.
Since every defender can only make plays if they are on the field, let's see how many plays it takes each man to make a play:
Snap Count numbers courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com
Pretty interesting numbers here.
I would love to track a whole season of Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu to see how many big plays a safety can make, because it sure looks like the Cowboys have a few safeties who never impact the game. Of course, that is what we thought before we ever did this project, too.
Bradie James was amazingly quiet at a high impact position and Jay Ratliff rallied as the season went along. As for the young guys, Victor Bulter needs to see the field more and Danny McCray took the most of his chances, too. Jason Hatcher needs to keep developing because it seems he might be a sleeping giant in all of this.
So, what did this project show us? Ware is who we thought he was. Lee and Ratliff are terrific, but so is Spencer. But, then the drop off is substantial. For the Cowboys to be great, they need those 4 impact defenders to be joined by 3 or 4 more. Can Hatcher, Carr, Claiborne, and Lissemore or Church or Crawford join those ranks who make 20 plays of substance every season?
That is the test.
I welcome your feedback in the comments below or through email: sturm1310@me.com
Before reveal the new data, let's catch those up who are just now being introduced to this new blog feature that we plan to maintain throughout the 2012 season in this space.
Part 1 - Splash Plays 2011 - Games 1-4
Part 2- Splash Plays 2011 - Games 5-8
Part 3 - Splash Plays 2011 - Games 9-12
What is a Splash Play?
In a short answer, a splash play is a term used in some franchises to describe a defensive big play. For our purposes, it is an interception, a sack, a tackle for loss, a strip of a fumble, a recovery of a fumble, a stuffed run, a defended pass, a batted ball at the line of scrimmage, or a hit that disrupts a play or a player. Essentially, a play that matters from the defense.
Here is the longer answer as we have used in the first few entries:
What is a splash play? Well, for purposes of this blog I believe a splash play will include the following: A sack, a pressure that forces a bad throw, and big hit on the QB, and a batted ball that may lead to an interception opportunity.
Again, you can see how this leads to subjectivity, but a subjective breakdown is better than no breakdown at all, I have decided. In addition, a splash play will include tackles for loss, a big hit for a short gain, or a stop which is an open field tackle where a player is pulled down on 3rd down short of the marker because of an exceptional effort from a defender.
An interception is clearly a splash play, but so is a defended pass that required a great effort. A major hit in the secondary could be a splash play, but I believe that the outcome of the play will determine that. Sorry, defensive backs, but standing over a guy who just caught a 15 yard pass because you think you hit him hard will not generally pass the test on this blog. So, stop doing it.
I am trying to be careful about handing out too many splash plays per game. I am trying to be picky, but too extreme in either direction. When I log a splash play, I will put time of the game on the chart so that if you want to review the same game and challenge my ruling, you are welcome to do so. Also, if multiple players deserve recognition on a single play, we will try to see that as well. Basically, we are trying to assign a value to making plays on the defense. We don't want to just see sacks and interceptions. We want to see broader definitions of splash plays to assign credit to those who help the Cowboys get off the field in important situations.
These rankings will not deduct for negative plays at this point. There are simply too many occasions where we are guessing, and for now, I want to avoid that for this particular idea. A splash play is a play that makes a major difference in the game. And by keeping it all season long, we will see which defenders are play makers and which are simply warm bodies. We already have our thoughts on both categories, but let's see if we can dig a bit deeper and actually have numbers to back up our claims.
The Cowboys played 1,053 defensive snaps in 2011. And we have now looked at each and everyone in detail. And, in our logs, we have given chapter and verse of each of them. This way, we invite your reviews if you would like to throw the challenge flag on my system and either ask for one to be added or one to be given to another player. One reader last week actually got a splash play to be re-issued to Victor Butler that had been erroneously given to DeMarcus Ware.
Now, please find the list for every single splash play that we have recorded for Games 13-16:
So, for this segment of games, we found 55 splash plays from the defense which is the lowest production for the season. The final total for the entire season arrived at 242 splash plays, which averaged out to a per game total of 15.125 per game.
It is interesting to note how many plays Anthony Spencer was in on. Over the course of the segment, he led the Cowboys with 9 splash plays. Further, over the course of the year - as you can see below - Spencer trailed only DeMarcus Ware on the entire defense.
When hearing his name discussed amongst Cowboys fans and media, I always hear his name positioned as a huge disappointment. I have always been willing to concede that his sack numbers and overall pass rush skills need to be better, but when you add in all of the other splash plays available - and he seems to blow up more run plays than anyone on the team - Spencer doesn't take a back seat to many.
His full body of work make him very useful. It can be said that the position of outside linebacker is going to always yield more of these plays than other positions in a 3-4 defense and I believe that is true, but still, to reduce Spencer to an anchor who merely holds you back is just not a fair assessment of his play.
Now, let's examine the full season totals:
| Player | Wks 1-4 | Wks 5-8 | Wks 9-12 | Wks 13-16 | Totals |
| 1. Ware | 10 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 39 |
| 2. Spencer | 8 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 29 |
| 3. Lee | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 25 |
| 4. Ratliff | 2 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 24 |
| 5. Scandrick | 0 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 16 |
| 6. Hatcher | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 7. Coleman | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 8. Newman | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11 |
| 9. Butler | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 10. Elam | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| T11. Lissemore | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| T11. Spears | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 13. Ball | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 14. Sensabaugh | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| T15. Jenkins | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| T15. Brooking | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 17. Walker | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| T18. Church | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| T18. McCray | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 20. James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| T21. Brent | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| T21. McCann | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| T21. Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| T24. Albright | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T24. Geathers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
And now, let's make this post extra long by finding a splash per snap ratio for each Cowboys defender in 2011.
Since every defender can only make plays if they are on the field, let's see how many plays it takes each man to make a play:
| Player | Splashes | Snaps | Snaps Per Splash |
| 1. Ware | 39 | 913 | 23.4 |
| 2. Spencer | 29 | 963 | 33.2 |
| 3. Lee | 25 | 868 | 34.7 |
| 4. Ratliff | 24 | 750 | 31.2 |
| 5. Scandrick | 16 | 680 | 42.5 |
| 6. Hatcher | 13 | 428 | 32.9 |
| 7. Coleman | 12 | 425 | 35.4 |
| 8. Newman | 11 | 828 | 75.2 |
| 9. Butler | 10 | 233 | 23.3 |
| 10. Elam | 9 | 1050 | 116.6 |
| T11. Lissemore | 8 | 282 | 35.2 |
| T11. Spears | 8 | 400 | 50 |
| 13. Ball | 7 | 499 | 71.3 |
| 14. Sensabaugh | 6 | 1004 | 167.3 |
| T15. Jenkins | 5 | 607 | 121.4 |
| T15. Brooking | 5 | 408 | 81.6 |
| 17. Walker | 4 | 332 | 83 |
| T18. Church | 3 | 172 | 57.3 |
| T18. McCray | 3 | 32 | 10.6 |
| 20. James | 2 | 415 | 207.5 |
| T21. Brent | 1 | 137 | 137 |
| T21. McCann | 1 | 35 | 35 |
| T21. Carter | 1 | 41 | 41 |
| T24. Albright | 0 | 45 | 0 |
| T24. Geathers | 0 | 31 | 0 |
Snap Count numbers courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com
Pretty interesting numbers here.
I would love to track a whole season of Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu to see how many big plays a safety can make, because it sure looks like the Cowboys have a few safeties who never impact the game. Of course, that is what we thought before we ever did this project, too.
Bradie James was amazingly quiet at a high impact position and Jay Ratliff rallied as the season went along. As for the young guys, Victor Bulter needs to see the field more and Danny McCray took the most of his chances, too. Jason Hatcher needs to keep developing because it seems he might be a sleeping giant in all of this.
So, what did this project show us? Ware is who we thought he was. Lee and Ratliff are terrific, but so is Spencer. But, then the drop off is substantial. For the Cowboys to be great, they need those 4 impact defenders to be joined by 3 or 4 more. Can Hatcher, Carr, Claiborne, and Lissemore or Church or Crawford join those ranks who make 20 plays of substance every season?
That is the test.
I welcome your feedback in the comments below or through email: sturm1310@me.com
Wednesday, August 08, 2012
11 for '11 - #10: Lost in the Lights
The Following is the 10th in an 11-part weekly series throughout the summer that will focus on the eleven plays that shaped 2011 for the Dallas Cowboys. Every game, about 130 actual plays happen and over the course of a season that number can exceed 2,000. But, we have selected 11 and will pick one each week and break it down from standpoint of "X's and O's" and see what we can learn looking back. The plays are not ranked, simply presented as the season unfolded. We hope you enjoy.
All plays are certainly not created equal.
They are not the same and should not be treated as such. And, if you were to rank every play of the 2011 Dallas Cowboys season based on their level of importance to the outcome of the year, I would submit to you that the #1 play of the year is the one we are about to breakdown.
It is a play that has been discussed since it happened. In doing so, both the quarterback and the wide receiver have been blamed and accepted blame. They both know they could have done better not this particular play, but nothing that can be said can bring the moment back.
The fact is, on this 3rd down and 5 opportunity in Week 14 of the 2011 season, the entire league was altered by one throw that fell to the turf at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. The butterfly effect of this play going differently - a pass thrown a bit shorter or a receiver that spots the pass a moment sooner - then the entire 2012 NFL season has a different champion and a different NFC East representative in the playoffs.
So, despite the fact that this play has been studied in depth quite a few different times since December 12, 2011, let's look at it again from a purely Xs and Os perspective and see what we can see.
As you will recall, this was a back and forth battle between two teams playing a desperate game. Neither defense seemed particularly up for the challenge of stopping the other's offense, but in particular, Eli Manning was having his way with the Cowboys secondary all day long. This was a game where Eli Manning dropped back to pass nearly 50 times and was hardly touched all night long. It was a frustrating exercise in trying to bring pressure, but the more you brought, the more you exposed your undermanned secondary that was surely not up to the task of staying with their men.
However, as the game went to the 4th Quarter, the Cowboys started taking over. Tony Romo hit Miles Austin for a touchdown to give them a 27-22 lead. Then, Sean Lee intercepted a pass DeMarcus Ware deflected and within a few moments, Romo hit Dez Bryant for what appeared to be the dagger touchdown with 5 minutes to play, 34-22.
From that point on, the only way the Giants would be able to win is if they had 4 scenarios ALL go in their favor. They would need to score touchdowns on both possessions and the Cowboys would have to get nothing on both of their possessions. Through a series of events, that is exactly what happened, including the best player on the field, Jason Pierre-Paul capping off a night that will be long remembered by blocking a Dan Bailey 47-yard field goal attempt that made it two straight weeks where Dallas had a field goal that could have won the game end up not being converted.
The Giants scored on their first possession to cut the score to 34-29. So, with 3:14 left to play in the game, this was a perfect example of why teams practice what is known in the football community as the "4 minute drill". The 4 minute drill is nothing like the 2 minute drill in which you are trying to run a "hurry up" offense to score as quick as you can. The 4 minute drill is quite the opposite. It supposes that you have a lead and are simply trying to kill the clock. In most situations, the thought that 2 first downs will win the game is there, assuming the opposition has a full compliment of timeouts. Basically, you must run the ball when the opponent knows you are running, and you move the chains and win the game. Every team needs this ability to run a 4 minute drill a few times a year.
Here, the Giants had 2 timeouts. 3:14 to go. On 1st Down, Felix Jones found 5 yards. Clock runs down to 2:30, when on 2nd Down, the Cowboys try a zone running play to the right, but Felix attempts the backside cut to find more space. Trouble is, the backside is where Pierre-Paul awaits and only Tony Fiammetta to deal with him. That did not go very well, as Pierre-Paul tossed the fullback to the side at the same time Chris Canty overpowered Montrae Holland and the play went for no gain. The Giants called their 2nd timeout, leading us to this particular moment.
The Play: 3rd and 5, 2:25 to go. Ball is at the Cowboys 25 yard line. Dallas has "11 personnel" (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs) and are in the Shotgun. This is their basic 3rd Down look in almost all situations that are not 3rd and short. The Cowboys are lined up 3x1 with 3 targets to Romo's right with Witten next to RT, Austin in the slot, and Robinson out wide. Bryant is wide on the left by himself. Felix Jones is to Romo's left, which would indicate he is ready to help on JPP if necessary.
In Picture #1, we see the routes the Cowboys have called. Double slants to both outside receivers which is rather standard on 3rd and 5. These can often be easy conversions if run properly. The tight end Witten will drag across the field in another high percentage opportunity to move the chains and get the game down to its end. The lowest percentage route is basically a "go" to Austin, but it is also the pass with the largest reward because Aaron Ross has no help over the top which we will cover in a moment.
Picture #1 - CLICK ON ANY PICTURE FOR ENLARGEMENT
Also, if you look up at Picture #1, you will notice the Giants pre snap posture. They are not being mysterious about their intentions. They don't buy the premise that the Cowboys will go deep on them. They know the score and the situation and realize that conservative football 101 calls for a draw play or a very high percentage pass. They want to make that more uncomfortable and Perry Fewell calls a play that will attempt to blow that idea up. The Giants are bringing the house. This will kill any running play and if they do try a quick pass, they are going to press cover everyone and make sure the windows are very tight for Romo to attempt to find.
Below, in Picture #2, you can see that when the Giants bring both safeties, there is no way for the Cowboys to block everyone. A simple truth of football is that the defense can always bring more than you can block if they so choose. And the Giants did so choose. Circled is the unblocked man, safety 26-Antrel Rolle. He will get to Romo in very short order, so the QB knows that he is facing press man and must get the ball out quickly. He has very little time altogether. Also, when looking at this picture, it is tough not to notice that both slants look like they have inside leverage and might be inviting targets at the moment Romo is looking at Austin. But, it happens so fast that Romo quite likely made his mind up before the ball was snapped.
Picture #2
This picture clearly verifies what Romo saw. He saw Austin beat Aaron Ross with amazing ease and is on his way against a "Cover 0" blitz. Cover 0 simply means there is no safety in the deep center of the field and any completion could go all the way unless the cover man is in a position to make the tackle and Ross clearly isn't. Austin is about 3 yards behind his man and you can imagine everyone up in the Cowboys coaching booth believes they just won the game and likely the division. A good throw is a touchdown. An under thrown ball is a sure pass interference as Ross has no idea where the ball is. The only thing that can't happen is an over throw.
Picture #3
Let's go back and look at the protection scheme and see that the Giants are bring everyone. That doesn't necessarily mean they are bringing 8, because the Giants don't know the intentions of Witten and Felix. But, they will bring 8 if they both stay in, 7 if one goes out, and 6 if both release into routes. Basically, their plan is to bring more than you can block.
Picture #4
In Picture #5, you can see the protection is to slide right for everyone on the OL but Free. Free stays with JPP and then Felix Jones is responsible for the inside blitz man. This is a bit counter to what is normally taught as you don't want a free man coming from the inside, but I am quite sure the Cowboys told Free to stay with #90 after the chaos he had been causing. You certainly don't want Felix to try to deal with Pierre Paul. So, Jones gets the inside, but the Giants ran 2 guys at that B-gap, and Felix tries to get the closer threat, 57-Williams. That leaves Rolle unaccounted for and Romo has to know that and adjust accordingly. This frame also shows us that Witten appears to have leverage on his man as well. Perhaps difficult to see and a huge gamble throw for Romo because if Rolle is only bluffing a blitz, then he would be sitting on Witten's route for an easy pick (like he did in Week 17 in New York on a similar play).
Picture #5
I believe Picture #6 is the indigestion shot. You see how far behind Ross that Austin is. You see how this should be one of the easiest passes to make under normal circumstances. Of course, there is nothing normal about knowing you are about to get hit by a blitz that is unblocked on a 3rd down late in a great game with all of the marbles on the line. But, that is what the job is for Tony Romo and that is why I am sure this play has stuck with him all year. We will consider Austin's poor path in a moment, but clearly, it would be extreme homerism to not suggest this ball could have been thrown with a better distance on it. He simply put too much on the throw and missed the proverbial short putt.
Picture #6
Picture #7 is just a fraction of a second after Picture #6, but it does show the odd path Austin takes. He is fading to the sideline when there is no reason to do so. Normally, the flight of the ball would determine his path, but the ball will clearly hit next to the numbers on the field while Austin is floating laterally on this play as if the ball will lead him outside. Speculation and interviews have indicated that the ball was lost in the lights and he was guessing the ball was taking an outside path, but for reasons that are unclear and fuzzy, the precision of Austin's path the ball leaves you wanting as well. The ball lands near his feet and there was really no play on the ball in terms of diving or even outstretching. The look on Romo's face and on Austin's face after the play seems to indicate that the ball was delivered in a reasonably catchable spot. Not perfect as it was overthrown, but if Austin sees it, the game is likely over.
Picture #7
And then, the moment captured on TV, where Austin, as he is running off the field, studies the roof of the $1.2 billion dollar stadium that had betrayed him.
Picture #8
It is a play that will go down in the history books as one that got away. The Giants gambled big and were burned badly. But, the Cowboys best players let them off the hook with a poorly timed misfire. You can see the entire play by clicking here and make up your own mind on the blame game. But, no matter what you come up with, it will not make you feel any better. The Giants have a Super Bowl trophy because the Cowboys let them off the hook on this single play. The Giants have other plays in the "play of the year" category as they tell the story differently, but any Cowboys fan knows that it all should have been different.
11 for '11 series Previous Plays :
1. The Revis Interception
2. The Home Run to Holley
3. 3rd And 21 to Dez
4. Megatron's Dominating TD
5. DeMarco Murray's 91 yard Run
6. Eagles Zone Counter Trap
7. Romo's Improv Bomb To Witten
8. Romo's Throw of the Year
9. The Hyphen Screen
Friday, August 03, 2012
Splash Plays - Part 3
We have just finished Part 3 of our 4-part series on the splash play as it applies to the Dallas Cowboys defense. If you are just joining the fun, I think you would be best served to go back and consume Part 1 and Part 2 as we attempt to fully grasp the concept before the start of 2012.
All we have to do yet is endure 4 more games from December last year, and we will have a full year of data to use as a gauge for new data collected each week of the 2012 season.
To review:
Now, since we have introduced the premise, we have received a lot of good feedback from many of you. By the way, your feedback is most welcomed, so keep it coming at both sturm1310@me.com and at the comments section below on this very blog.
Currently, many of you have brought up the following points that might improve "splash" research as we go.
1. - Many of you have wanted to judge these against a playing time metric. I completely agree. When we get to the end of the 2011 season, I will introduce each player's total number of snaps so that we may divide by that count to arrive at a splash play ratio. If one player is requiring 100 snaps per splash play and another player is getting a splash once every 20 snaps, we should try to figure out what is going on. That will be tracked every Sunday this season.
2. - Others have indicated that we must be careful to remember some positions are more apt to be a part of a splash, while others are not as likely. For instance, in a 2-gap 3-4, the idea would be for the DL to occupy offensive linemen, thus allowing LBs to run free and make tackles and plays. That is true. In order to do that, though, we would have to really complicate our system and I want to keep this as reader-friendly and useable as possible. So, we will rank them by position, but beyond that, we will simply allow everyone to draw their own conclusions.
3. - It has been raised that a player like DeMarcus Ware makes lots of plays but doesn't always make them when it matters. This seems to be the equivalent of the NBA "clutch" stats. I have plans to examine his plays by time of game and score of game later, but we must remember that in the game of football, every snap needs to be treated as important. That is how they are coached; no matter what just happened, you need to win this play. So, I don't want to get too far into rating the importance of each down against each other, but rather a big play is a big play. On the other hand, it is a bit disconcerting that with the exception of the Spencer sack to end the Week 3 Washington game, it is difficult to come up with the biggest play the defense made last year. It would appear that they did not alter the outcome of games with one explosive game-winning moment in the entirety of 2011. That is something that might have helped them win the division last season and could really affect 2012.
OK. This Part 3 will consist of the home game against Buffalo, the game at Washington, Thanksgiving Day versus Miami, and the devastating OT loss at Arizona. As usual, I examined each snap looking for big plays by the defense. So, now, you can look at the entire list below and if you wish to re-watch and challenge my score-keeping, please do so.
Below, please find the chapter and verse of every single splash play that we have recorded for Games 9-12:
I found 70 splash plays in this 4 game segment, which was higher than the other 2 segments so far. I don't know what that means, but either I was a bit more generous (which I am trying not to be) or the Cowboys defense was making fractionally more plays in November. That means the total is now 181 through 12 games, or roughly 15 splash plays per Sunday.
Now, here are the standings through 12 weeks of the Cowboys season. As you can see, the cream is rising to the top:
Some brief observations: Sean Lee's injury has slowed down his play making to a degree, but he is still outperforming all other inside linebackers by leaps and bounds. Jay Ratliff is really coming on strong as the season wears on, and he led the entire team with 10 splash plays in this 4 week period. Kenyon Coleman is maybe the most shocking player on this list as he is now in double digits with run stuffing plays and the argument of Coleman versus Spears is an easy one for me. Mike Jenkins has many people saying he was the Cowboys best corner last season. That must be purely on the premise that he wasn't getting burned, because he sure wasn't making any impact plays as we go through the season. Orlando Scandrick was really being used as a blitzing presence, and he made a fair amount of plays doing it.
18 Cowboys players are rated above. 5 more did play in 2011, with Josh Brent, Bruce Carter, and Bryan McCann each having 1 splash play so far. Alex Albright and Clifton Geathers each had 0. And that would be all 23 players who took a snap on defense last season.
The final installment will come next week, with the final 4 games viewed. They are, home to the Giants, at Tampa, home against Philadelphia, and at New York. I am not anticipating this being a very impressive month of defensive football, but we will total them up to complete our pass through the season and to see what our findings give us.
All we have to do yet is endure 4 more games from December last year, and we will have a full year of data to use as a gauge for new data collected each week of the 2012 season.
To review:
What is a splash play? Well, for purposes of this blog I believe a splash play will include the following: A sack, a pressure that forces a bad throw, and big hit on the QB, and a batted ball that may lead to an interception opportunity. Again, you can see how this leads to subjectivity, but a subjective breakdown is better than no breakdown at all, I have decided. In addition, a splash play will include tackles for loss, a big hit for a short gain, or a stop which is an open field tackle where a player is pulled down on 3rd down short of the marker because of an exceptional effort from a defender. An interception is clearly a splash play, but so is a defended pass that required a great effort. A major hit in the secondary could be a splash play, but I believe that the outcome of the play will determine that. Sorry, defensive backs, but standing over a guy who just caught a 15 yard pass because you think you hit him hard will not generally pass the test on this blog. So, stop doing it.
I am trying to be careful about handing out too many splash plays per game. I am trying to be picky, but too extreme in either direction. When I log a splash play, I will put time of the game on the chart so that if you want to review the same game and challenge my ruling, you are welcome to do so. Also, if multiple players deserve recognition on a single play, we will try to see that as well.
Basically, we are trying to assign a value to making plays on the defense. We don't want to just see sacks and interceptions. We want to see broader definitions of splash plays to assign credit to those who help the Cowboys get off the field in important situations. These rankings will not deduct for negative plays at this point. There are simply too many occasions where we are guessing, and for now, I want to avoid that for this particular idea.
A splash play is a play that makes a major difference in the game. And by keeping it all season long, we will see which defenders are play makers and which are simply warm bodies. We already have our thoughts on both categories, but let's see if we can dig a bit deeper and actually have numbers to back up our claims.
Now, since we have introduced the premise, we have received a lot of good feedback from many of you. By the way, your feedback is most welcomed, so keep it coming at both sturm1310@me.com and at the comments section below on this very blog.
Currently, many of you have brought up the following points that might improve "splash" research as we go.
1. - Many of you have wanted to judge these against a playing time metric. I completely agree. When we get to the end of the 2011 season, I will introduce each player's total number of snaps so that we may divide by that count to arrive at a splash play ratio. If one player is requiring 100 snaps per splash play and another player is getting a splash once every 20 snaps, we should try to figure out what is going on. That will be tracked every Sunday this season.
2. - Others have indicated that we must be careful to remember some positions are more apt to be a part of a splash, while others are not as likely. For instance, in a 2-gap 3-4, the idea would be for the DL to occupy offensive linemen, thus allowing LBs to run free and make tackles and plays. That is true. In order to do that, though, we would have to really complicate our system and I want to keep this as reader-friendly and useable as possible. So, we will rank them by position, but beyond that, we will simply allow everyone to draw their own conclusions.
3. - It has been raised that a player like DeMarcus Ware makes lots of plays but doesn't always make them when it matters. This seems to be the equivalent of the NBA "clutch" stats. I have plans to examine his plays by time of game and score of game later, but we must remember that in the game of football, every snap needs to be treated as important. That is how they are coached; no matter what just happened, you need to win this play. So, I don't want to get too far into rating the importance of each down against each other, but rather a big play is a big play. On the other hand, it is a bit disconcerting that with the exception of the Spencer sack to end the Week 3 Washington game, it is difficult to come up with the biggest play the defense made last year. It would appear that they did not alter the outcome of games with one explosive game-winning moment in the entirety of 2011. That is something that might have helped them win the division last season and could really affect 2012.
OK. This Part 3 will consist of the home game against Buffalo, the game at Washington, Thanksgiving Day versus Miami, and the devastating OT loss at Arizona. As usual, I examined each snap looking for big plays by the defense. So, now, you can look at the entire list below and if you wish to re-watch and challenge my score-keeping, please do so.
Below, please find the chapter and verse of every single splash play that we have recorded for Games 9-12:
I found 70 splash plays in this 4 game segment, which was higher than the other 2 segments so far. I don't know what that means, but either I was a bit more generous (which I am trying not to be) or the Cowboys defense was making fractionally more plays in November. That means the total is now 181 through 12 games, or roughly 15 splash plays per Sunday.
Now, here are the standings through 12 weeks of the Cowboys season. As you can see, the cream is rising to the top:
| Player | Wks 1-4 | Wks 5-8 | Wks 9-12 | Totals |
| 1. Ware | 10 | 13 | 8 | 31 |
| T2. Lee | 10 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| T2. Spencer | 8 | 4 | 8 | 20 |
| 4. Ratliff | 2 | 6 | 10 | 18 |
| 5. Scandrick | 0 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| 6. Coleman | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7. Newman | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 8. Hatcher | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9. Butler | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| T10. Sensabaugh | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| T10. Elam | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| T10. Ball | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| T10. Lissemore | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 14. Jenkins | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| T15. Walker | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| T15. Spears | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| T15. Brooking | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| T18. Church | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| T18. McCray | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
Some brief observations: Sean Lee's injury has slowed down his play making to a degree, but he is still outperforming all other inside linebackers by leaps and bounds. Jay Ratliff is really coming on strong as the season wears on, and he led the entire team with 10 splash plays in this 4 week period. Kenyon Coleman is maybe the most shocking player on this list as he is now in double digits with run stuffing plays and the argument of Coleman versus Spears is an easy one for me. Mike Jenkins has many people saying he was the Cowboys best corner last season. That must be purely on the premise that he wasn't getting burned, because he sure wasn't making any impact plays as we go through the season. Orlando Scandrick was really being used as a blitzing presence, and he made a fair amount of plays doing it.
18 Cowboys players are rated above. 5 more did play in 2011, with Josh Brent, Bruce Carter, and Bryan McCann each having 1 splash play so far. Alex Albright and Clifton Geathers each had 0. And that would be all 23 players who took a snap on defense last season.
The final installment will come next week, with the final 4 games viewed. They are, home to the Giants, at Tampa, home against Philadelphia, and at New York. I am not anticipating this being a very impressive month of defensive football, but we will total them up to complete our pass through the season and to see what our findings give us.
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
11 for '11: #9 - The Hyphen Screen
The Following is the 9th in an 11-part weekly series throughout the summer that will focus on the eleven plays that shaped 2011 for the Dallas Cowboys. Every game, about 130 actual plays happen and over the course of a season that number can exceed 2,000. But, we have selected 11 and will pick one each week and break it down from standpoint of "X's and O's" and see what we can learn looking back. The plays are not ranked, simply presented as the season unfolded. We hope you enjoy.
Parts of this post first appeared on December 8, 2011.
Blitzing, and more specifically, fire zone blitzing is a staple of the Rob Ryan defense. We have discussed this at some length in past entries, but usually it is when it works to perfection - such as the study we did when he had Buffalo all confused back in November.
But, of course, sometimes when you blitz, the other team has figured you out from their film study or they just lucked into a perfect call at a perfect moment. Regardless of how the Cardinals walked the Cowboys right into a trap on the final play of Sunday's game, the truth is on the film for all to see.
Larod Stephens-Howling is known as the "hyphen" in Arizona, and surely is one of those water-bug types that if they can get into the open field, the opponent is going to have a hard time containing him and bringing him down. Another note worth considering is that the Cardinals have a notoriously difficult time executing screen plays. Perhaps that is why the Cowboys felt that this was not going to be a major issue entering the action on Sunday.
The Cardinals are on the 1st Drive of OT, and are facing a 1st and 15 after a penalty. The Cowboys scheme for fire zones vary, but just know that it means the Cowboys are overloading their blitz to one side of the field, while the weakside edge LB will drop into a zone instead of rushing. In this case, that LB is DeMarcus Ware, and the normal genius of such a concept is that the opponent has 2 guys assigned to block #94. So, the premise is simple: Blitz more guys from one side than can be blocked, and rush almost nobody from the other-side which leaves the LT and sometimes LG just standing there with nobody to block.
From the Cardinals standpoint, if they can somehow have a play on that attacks the blitz side, it can go for miles (which it did). If they call the screen to the opposite side, Ware will be standing there and ready to devour the play as he will be unblocked.
Look at the diagram of how the Cowboys defense is to deploy in this situation on a fire zone to DeMarcus Ware's side:
And here is how it looked in presnap from the same view from the coaches film (click on any and all pictures for enlargements):
Picture #1
The Cowboys are trying to drop 2 LBs (94 and 56) into the shallow zones on either side. Of course, Bradie James is highlighted in green on the diagram (and is standing on the Cardinals logo on the film) because it is rather clear that he busts on this play and gets "caught up in the wash" as he tries to get out wide to the side that the play is about to go. With Sensabaugh and Newman in man coverage, they will have their backs to the play for most of the play, so this is Bradie's play or likely nobody. Notice Sensabaugh - highlighted below - asked to man up against Fitzgerald on this play in the slot. This is why pressure is going to be key, because the Cowboys know that asking Sensabaugh to run with Fitzgerald if Kolb gets time is a very bad idea.
Also, let's note that the defense must be aware of who is on the field at each position. A specialty player like Stephens-Howling is a wrinkle that might burn the defense if they are not prepared for it. Keep in mind, in 59 snaps before this play, Beanie Wells was the RB on 40 of them, Chester Taylor had 6 plays, and Stephens-Howling just 7. What are the keys for the linebackers when he sneaks out there? Is he a decoy? Or is he a legitimate target in a key spot? The Cowboys are about to find out.
Picture #2
Picture #3 goes along with the diagram above. Notice the drop responsibilities for Ware and James. James has a longer way to go and if the hyphen gets to the edge, there is big trouble. So, if they have the screen to his side called, there is going to be a footrace between the Cardinals fastest player and the Cowboys slowest linebacker.
Picture #3
The Cardinals do not even attempt to block Anthony Spencer which is either a horrible decision if Spencer can grab Kevin Kolb or a brilliant one if Kolb can slip past 93 long enough to dump the ball off to hyphen in space. It works like a charm. This demonstrates why mobility for a QB has almost nothing to do with "straight-line" speed and more to do with understanding how a side step can buy you another few tenths of a second.
Now, the moment that causes the issues is shown in Picture #4. Let's credit #70-Rex Hadnot, the Cardinals right guard, for getting a very impressive hold on James that keeps Bradie from getting to where he is supposed to go on this play. Holding for a split second on a screen play is often done and seldom called. But, if you can throw James off of his route to the flank by disrupting him for a moment, the damage is done. Also, we should perhaps blame Bradie for attempting to get too cute as he tries to give the impression that he is blitzing. It is a good bluff in some scenarios, but in this one it cost the game. The concept is for Bradie to occupy a blocker with his first step or two, but he has to bail before anyone can get their mitts on him because he has that entire half of the field on the defensive left. It is going to be a long run with no contact, but once Hadnot touches him, this play is doomed.
Picture #4
We can certainly question the Cowboys thinking their slowest LB could beat the "hyphen" to the edge, but they tried it and the picture below will attest to the fact that the result was ugly:
Picture #5
At the moment Picture #5 is taken, here is Picture #6 from the long angle. Look at what Stephens-Howling is seeing. He knows he will not be caught from behind and ahead he has 2 blockers for 3 Cowboys defenders. And, unless Newman can defeat his man, the only other threat is Abe Elam who is 30 yards down field. Surely, Stephens-Howling knew that this was a touchdown the second he looked downfield.
Picture #6
Sean Lee is a very fast inside LB, but at 4.6, he is no match for a 4.35 guy like Stephens-Howling. Lee diagnoses the play and peels off as fast as he can (and is actually quicker to get there than James), but he will not be able to run him down from behind. James just cannot get there in time, and as you can see, Sensabaugh has his hands full worried about Larry Fitzgerald and is running with his back to the play.
From the time of the catch, the play is doomed. The Cowboys only real hope is that Terence Newman can get around Andre Roberts to bring down Stephens-Howling near the 45. Once Newman is dealt with quite easily, it becomes a comedy of missed tackles and less-than-inspired efforts to bring him down inside the 20 which speaks to the knowledge that the game is already lost once the play goes deep inside FG range.
You can see full video of this play here.
Is it a horrible call from Rob Ryan? This is the nature of all of football. Call a blitz on 1st Down when few would expect it is a great idea when it works (a sack is a drive ender if the Cardinals are looking at a 2nd and 22)- and a horrible plan when it fails. Asking Bradie James to get to the flank in time against Stephens-Howling sounds like a very poor plan, unless you are playing the odds that the Cardinals hadn't used him hardly all day long. One does wonder how a speedy inside LB like Bruce Carter would do in the same situation, and we will get to find out in 2012.
So, perfect call against your blitz or reckless play call from Rob Ryan? It is a results-based business, so in this case, Ryan was caught with his hand in the cookie jar and his players were unable to bail him out.
This is why blitzing is a fine art. If you call it right, you cause a big play. But, one false move and you concede a game that will potentially keep you out of the playoffs. At 1st and 15, the Cowboys might force a punt from midfield and have another chance to win the game. But, in this case, it was a fitting end to a day where coaches and players alike seemed a step behind.
Next Week: The season is lost in the lights.
11 for '11 series Previous Plays :
1. The Revis Interception
2. The Home Run to Holley
3. 3rd And 21 to Dez
4. Megatron's Dominating TD
5. DeMarco Murray's 91 yard Run
6. Eagles Zone Counter Trap
7. Romo's Improv Bomb To Witten
8. Romo's Throw of the Year
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Splash Plays 2011 - Part 2
Last week we introduced the concept of the splash play, and began rolling through 2011 again to demonstrate what we are talking about from Weeks 1-4 on the schedule. If you missed it, this might all make more sense if you check it out by clicking here.
In a nutshell, I am unsatisfied with our current metrics for evaluating defensive players and wanted to try something new this season. Tabulating and evaluating "splash plays" is an idea that is worth trying, and although there is subjectivity involved, I suppose that is not that different than just about every other way we attempt to evaluate the Cowboys. I think Phil Costa had a lousy 2011. The Cowboys obviously did not since they try to replace him very hard. I feel I have my evidence that is both objective and subjective. They clearly have theirs (he was too young, he did not have enough help, he is developing) as well. But, to act like anything in football besides the final score and the final record of the teams we follow is 100% objective analysis is likely missing the boat.
But, on this blog in particular and most Cowboys coverage in general, we spend a ton of time on the offense and not nearly enough on the defense. So, this year, I plan on a weekly analysis of "splash plays". And according to the jargon in the NFL, a splash play is basically a play for the defense where somebody steps up and does something.
Here is what we ended up with last week:
So, there you have it. This week, we are doing part 2 of our 4-part review of the 2011 season. Below, I have covered 4 games in this particular edition, from Game #5 (New England), #6 (St Louis), #7 (Philadelphia), and #8 (Seattle).
From these 4 games, I have tabulated each snap and have awarded splash plays where appropriate. Then, we are adding them up and combining them with the findings from Part 1. Before long, we will have all of 2011 charted and have a good sample size for which to enter 2012 with some basis to work with.
I am quite interested in your feedback about how you see these charts and how you might make them better by improving this project. Please feel free to email me at Sturm1310@me.com and we can grow this properly by checks and balances.
Below, please find the chapter and verse of every single splash play that we have recorded for Games 5-8:
55 splash plays were awarded in these 4 weeks and 57 in the first 4 weeks for a total of 112 in 8 games (14 per game). Sometimes there are more and sometimes, like the Sunday night game in Philadelphia, it is less.
Now, we want to reveal through 8 games of 2011, the team leaders. We must account for games lost to injury, and here is the list of games missed: Sean Lee missed games 7-8. Mike Jenkins missed game 8. Jason Hatcher missed 4-6, Terence Newman 1-2, and Orlando Scandrick missed 2-4. Bruce Carter did not play until Game 8, missing 1-7.
Here are the standings through 8 weeks of the 2011 season:
As you can see, DeMarcus Ware is starting to open up quite a gap from his closest competitors in this category. He had a ridiculous performance at Philadelphia when pretty much the rest of the roster stayed home. I credited him with 7 splash plays in that one game alone, and the entire team had just 9. The chart above lists 13 members of the defense and there are plenty of observations to draw, but the names not on the list are the names that are most disconcerting to me.
Keith Brooking and Bradie James each had just 1 play in 8 games that seemed worthy of noting. That is beyond shocking. Marcus Spears had just 2 plays that were noticeable. Gerald Sensabaugh had only 3. That is 4 players of large salaries and responsibilities on the 2011 team that were almost never even noticed through half of the season. Brooking and James have been dispatched, but the idea that Spears and Sensabaugh are likely opening day starters in 2012 is a bit of a mystery to me.
I think Sean Lee would be much closer to Ware had he not missed that action with his thumb injury, but he will return in Game 9. And perhaps Anthony Spencer will get a bit more credit after this project, because he blows a lot of plays up and even though his sacks aren't there, you do see him every game doing something.
Next week, we tackle November and weeks 9-12. Keep the feedback coming.
In a nutshell, I am unsatisfied with our current metrics for evaluating defensive players and wanted to try something new this season. Tabulating and evaluating "splash plays" is an idea that is worth trying, and although there is subjectivity involved, I suppose that is not that different than just about every other way we attempt to evaluate the Cowboys. I think Phil Costa had a lousy 2011. The Cowboys obviously did not since they try to replace him very hard. I feel I have my evidence that is both objective and subjective. They clearly have theirs (he was too young, he did not have enough help, he is developing) as well. But, to act like anything in football besides the final score and the final record of the teams we follow is 100% objective analysis is likely missing the boat.
But, on this blog in particular and most Cowboys coverage in general, we spend a ton of time on the offense and not nearly enough on the defense. So, this year, I plan on a weekly analysis of "splash plays". And according to the jargon in the NFL, a splash play is basically a play for the defense where somebody steps up and does something.
Here is what we ended up with last week:
What is a splash play? Well, for purposes of this blog I believe a splash play will include the following: A sack, a pressure that forces a bad throw, and big hit on the QB, and a batted ball that may lead to an interception opportunity. Again, you can see how this leads to subjectivity, but a subjective breakdown is better than no breakdown at all, I have decided. In addition, a splash play will include tackles for loss, a big hit for a short gain, or a stop which is an open field tackle where a player is pulled down on 3rd down short of the marker because of an exceptional effort from a defender. An interception is clearly a splash play, but so is a defended pass that required a great effort. A major hit in the secondary could be a splash play, but I believe that the outcome of the play will determine that. Sorry, defensive backs, but standing over a guy who just caught a 15 yard pass because you think you hit him hard will not generally pass the test on this blog. So, stop doing it.
I am trying to be careful about handing out too many splash plays per game. I am trying to be picky, but too extreme in either direction. When I log a splash play, I will put time of the game on the chart so that if you want to review the same game and challenge my ruling, you are welcome to do so. Also, if multiple players deserve recognition on a single play, we will try to see that as well.
Basically, we are trying to assign a value to making plays on the defense. We don't want to just see sacks and interceptions. We want to see broader definitions of splash plays to assign credit to those who help the Cowboys get off the field in important situations. These rankings will not deduct for negative plays at this point. There are simply too many occasions where we are guessing, and for now, I want to avoid that for this particular idea.
A splash play is a play that makes a major difference in the game. And by keeping it all season long, we will see which defenders are play makers and which are simply warm bodies. We already have our thoughts on both categories, but let's see if we can dig a bit deeper and actually have numbers to back up our claims.
So, there you have it. This week, we are doing part 2 of our 4-part review of the 2011 season. Below, I have covered 4 games in this particular edition, from Game #5 (New England), #6 (St Louis), #7 (Philadelphia), and #8 (Seattle).
From these 4 games, I have tabulated each snap and have awarded splash plays where appropriate. Then, we are adding them up and combining them with the findings from Part 1. Before long, we will have all of 2011 charted and have a good sample size for which to enter 2012 with some basis to work with.
I am quite interested in your feedback about how you see these charts and how you might make them better by improving this project. Please feel free to email me at Sturm1310@me.com and we can grow this properly by checks and balances.
Below, please find the chapter and verse of every single splash play that we have recorded for Games 5-8:
55 splash plays were awarded in these 4 weeks and 57 in the first 4 weeks for a total of 112 in 8 games (14 per game). Sometimes there are more and sometimes, like the Sunday night game in Philadelphia, it is less.
Now, we want to reveal through 8 games of 2011, the team leaders. We must account for games lost to injury, and here is the list of games missed: Sean Lee missed games 7-8. Mike Jenkins missed game 8. Jason Hatcher missed 4-6, Terence Newman 1-2, and Orlando Scandrick missed 2-4. Bruce Carter did not play until Game 8, missing 1-7.
Here are the standings through 8 weeks of the 2011 season:
| Player | Wks 1-4 | Wks 5-8 | Totals |
| 1. Ware | 10 | 13 | 23 |
| 2. Lee | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| 3. Spencer | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| 4. Ratliff | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| T5. Coleman | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| T5. Elam | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| T7. Hatcher | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| T7. Butler | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| T7. Scandrick | 0 | 5 | 5 | T10. Ball | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| T10. Jenkins | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| T10. Newman | 1 | 3 | 4 | T10. Lissemore | 2 | 2 | 4 |
As you can see, DeMarcus Ware is starting to open up quite a gap from his closest competitors in this category. He had a ridiculous performance at Philadelphia when pretty much the rest of the roster stayed home. I credited him with 7 splash plays in that one game alone, and the entire team had just 9. The chart above lists 13 members of the defense and there are plenty of observations to draw, but the names not on the list are the names that are most disconcerting to me.
Keith Brooking and Bradie James each had just 1 play in 8 games that seemed worthy of noting. That is beyond shocking. Marcus Spears had just 2 plays that were noticeable. Gerald Sensabaugh had only 3. That is 4 players of large salaries and responsibilities on the 2011 team that were almost never even noticed through half of the season. Brooking and James have been dispatched, but the idea that Spears and Sensabaugh are likely opening day starters in 2012 is a bit of a mystery to me.
I think Sean Lee would be much closer to Ware had he not missed that action with his thumb injury, but he will return in Game 9. And perhaps Anthony Spencer will get a bit more credit after this project, because he blows a lot of plays up and even though his sacks aren't there, you do see him every game doing something.
Next week, we tackle November and weeks 9-12. Keep the feedback coming.
Monday, July 23, 2012
11 for '11: #8 - Romo Finds Laurent Robinson
The Following is the 8th in an 11-part weekly series throughout the summer that will focus on the eleven plays that shaped 2011 for the Dallas Cowboys. Every game, about 130 actual plays happen and over the course of a season that number can exceed 2,000. But, we have selected 11 and will pick one each week and break it down from standpoint of "X's and O's" and see what we can learn looking back. The plays are not ranked, simply presented as the season unfolded. We hope you enjoy.
One of these days, we need to find the short list of Tony Romo's top throws of all-time. There is no question that what we are about to look at is his best throw of 2011, but I need to reserve judgement on his entire career before I get too carried away. But, when you talk about improvisation, vision, arm strength, and execution, this particular Thanksgiving throw has it all.
This drive put the Cowboys in a spot where they took over a football game that until that spot early in the 4th Quarter was proving to be extremely difficult. To see the entire drive broken down, I recommend you read the piece from last November that looked at the drive as a whole. It might have been the high-water mark for the offense for the entire year. It demonstrated their QB, who had a collapsed lung and broken ribs earlier in the campaign, taking a beating behind an offensive line that was susceptible to the pass rush and the blitz on a regular basis.
It also demonstrates some strategy points that go back to last week as we discussed the performance level and chemistry between Romo and his elite tight end, Jason Witten. As fans, we obsess and focus on statistical findings about a given player and how those numbers match up with his contemporaries around the sport. Surely, 90 catches is always better than 80, and so on. But, I think this play can show us an important example of what Witten does to coverages which, in turn, affects the opportunities all over the field for his mates. And this, is where Jason Garrett has a design advantage that he is crazy not to use as often as he can when looking at route combinations all game long.
This Miami win also gave Cowboys fans a result that has seemed somewhat rare in the last few seasons; one in which the team as a whole and the veteran leaders in specific had just refused to lose. Many things went very poorly in this game and mistakes were made in multitudes. But, in the end, the game was not going to be conceded. They were going to scratch and claw and get that 7th win of the season. As this game ended, with the Cowboys 7-4 after once being 3-4, it seemed relatively certain that this team was determined to fall into its same old familiar December pattern. But, we all know that it turned out that way yet again. More on that in weeks to follow.
The Play: 1-10-MIA 18 - (14:37) (Shotgun) T.Romo pass deep left to L.Robinson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on roll P15 left by Romo; ball caught back of the end zone.
Click Here to see the play on NFL.com - And please remember to click on any of the pictures below to see them enlarged.
It is S11 Personnel, which is Shotgun, with 1 RB, 1 TE, and 3 WR on the field. They have a 3 x 1 setup to the right, meaning that they have overloaded the right side of the formation with 2 WR and a TE. The only thing threat on the opposite side of the formation at the time of the snap is Dez Bryant.
On this first picture, I wanted to overlay the routes for the play at the snap so you have an idea of what the plan is before the bullets start flying for real. They are pretty self-explanatory, but I did want to add something to Witten's description. He is really just running a basic 10 yard hook that he converts into a crossing pattern when he sees Romo break contain in the pocket. Much like last week, much of what Witten does on his routes are determined by glancing back in the pocket and knowing what his QB needs. So, know that his initial assignment is to run 10 yards and sit in an open area on a basic route he runs 10-20 times a game.
Picture #1
Miami has a coverage that appears to be man to man on the edges with a zoning of Witten in the middle of the field and a single-high safety to decide where he is needed. Yeremiah Bell is that high safety, and in Picture #2, you can see what he must read. He is not concerned with Bryant who is on a crossing pattern or Ogletree who is on the sideline. He has 2 reads which the arrows indicate: 1) Witten who is in front of him or Laurent Robinson who is headed for the post. From a Cowboys perspective, you can see the spacing here really stresses a safety. Witten is at the 5 yard line and Robinson is headed for the back of the end zone. Otherwise, they are headed in the same direction which likely is why when Romo bails out of the pocket, he wants to bail to his left which keeps those two in his throwing range.
Picture #2
Much like last week, Romo is not very confident in his protection again. There is no reason to blame him, because he has taken a tremendous beating all season long, but the clock in his head does appear to be deceiving him a bit when he feels the pass rush before it actually seems to be arriving. Kendall Langford is pushing Doug Free back into Romo somewhat, but I cannot imagine that it was enough to force Romo out of the pocket unless he was looking for an excuse to bail. By the way, again, as you look at the similarities between this week and last week's throw in Washington, it is interesting to see left tackle being the spot where Romo looks most nervous. I wonder if Tyron Smith at left tackle will settle this down in 2012.
Picture #3 shows what Romo is looking at when he does break the pocket and sets his feet going to his left. There are only 2 reads that he is considering - the same two that Yeremiah Bell is looking at. Bell, the replay will show appears to have been paralyzed by the choice and ended up covering neither. But, as Romo looks, he sees two players on Witten shallow and two more players on Robinson deep. Remember, it is 1st and 10. This might have been where he considers DeMarco Murray at the sideline or even a scramble, but clearly, he had other ideas.
Picture #3
Now, it is time to throw the ball. In picture #4, you see the throw he has to make. This is where Witten controls the coverage and allows others opportunities by his mere presence. If you are a Dolphins defensive back, where do you think Romo is going with the ball when he breaks contain? Remember, the Dolphins have been looking at the throw in Washington to Witten all week during their film study. It just happened 4 days prior. Robinson has a step on his man, but Romo has to lead him perfectly or risk an interception that would demoralize the stadium after a drive this long. What is interesting is that his throw to Robinson in the back of the end zone will have to basically go right over the head of Jason Witten and his defenders to get there. Witten might even think it is an overthrow initially, but Romo knew where he was going. When we discuss the "NFL Arm", this is what we are discussing. A 30-yard frozen rope to the sideline that must arrive on time. This, is a throw of great beauty.
Picture #4
In Picture #5, I have placed 2 blue arrows. One is to show where Robinson is when the ball leaves Romo's hands and the other is to show where the ball will be caught. The throw is such that if thrown correctly, the only person with a chance to catch it will be the Cowboys' man. And it was executed to great perfection. The only argument on this throw would be whether it should have been attempted (which only gets asked if something bad happens). From this angle, you can argue that a throw to Witten is available that would have given a 1st and Goal if it was caught. But, keep in mind, Romo doesn't have time to study each frame and analyze this all over the course of an hour. He had 5.1 seconds from snap to throw.
Picture #5
And, finally, the catch, which should not be oversold either. Robinson, for having such a short time in Dallas which included no preseason, had a wonderful knack of understanding how to assist his QB when the play breaks down. Some receivers have this knack and others don't.
Picture #6
As I was pondering this play this morning, it reminded me of a play from a few games earlier against Seattle that utilized many of the same concepts. It is a different personnel grouping, but again, the idea is to stress the safeties with a high/low cross concept that uses Witten to attract coverage and slips Robinson behind him in the back of the end zone.
Coincidentally, both of these plays from the two different games are the 2nd snap in the 4th Quarter and both end up as touchdowns to Robinson in the back of the end zone. The other players are trying to take defenders out of the middle of the field and leave Witten and Robinson for Romo to decide.
Picture #7
Now, click here to see this touchdown against Seattle from NFL.com and see if the two plays remind you of each other.
How the team seemed to be on such a good run in November but then collapsed some in December is what we must now focus on for our remaining 3 entires in this series. They had the schedule right where they wanted it until the calendar turned.
Next week, the gutting ending in Arizona...
11 for '11 series Previous Plays :
1. The Revis Interception
2. The Home Run to Holley
3. 3rd And 21 to Dez
4. Megatron's Dominating TD
5. DeMarco Murray's 91 yard Run
6. Eagles Zone Counter Trap
7. Romo's Improv Bomb To Witten
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