Showing posts with label 2014 NFL Playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2014 NFL Playoffs. Show all posts

Monday, February 02, 2015

The Morning After: Super Bowl 49 - Patriots 28, Seahawks 24




If you have to wait 213 days before the next meaningful NFL game - and you do - then the last one which decides which team gets to leave with the shiny trophy needs to be noteworthy.  We have been subjected to some very fine examples of that in the last 20 years (after 20 years before that of almost exclusively blowouts) and we can add another to the list of great dramas as New England survived Seattle last night in Arizona, 28-24.
This game, for the neutral 3rd party observer, featured two heavyweights that were both the #1 seed in their respective conferences who would stand toe to toe in the middle of the ring and decide this over 3 hours of impacts.  The defending champion started slowly, but eventually had the game by the neck with a 10-point lead with 10 minutes to play - a lead that no Super Bowl had ever seen overcome.  But, they were playing a team that knows a little something about winning Super Bowls.  At least the Quarterback and the coach do, and this was a clear indication of how powerful the alliance of having maybe the best coach and the best QB team up over the long-term.  They have now won 4 Super Bowls together along with 6 appearances.  We are rapidly approaching the situation where their hold of the throne over the course of 14 seasons is beyond anything we have ever seen.  To win Super Bowls 36 and 49 (titles 14 years apart) with the same coach and QB is a singular accomplishment in the history of the sport.
But, as you know, winning a title is not an individual accomplishment like it might be in golf, boxing, and tennis.  And therefore, a win like this Super Bowl is dependent on the opponent making a less than stellar decision when they appeared to have the game won and then the execution involved for an unforgettable goal-line interception that saved the game as the coach and QB could only stand on the sideline and hope.  It demonstrated how football is the ultimate team game and as great as Tom Brady is, he needs Malcolm Butler to make a play or Brady takes the loss like he did when some guy named David Tyree made the play of his life as Brady looked on in 2008.  This is how we measure players and it clearly is ridiculous.  But, it doesn't stop us from doing it.
The Super Bowl was won, it seemed, when New England came storming back in a game where they were down and without a whole lot of hope when their first 3 possessions of the 2nd half went for an interception, a 3-and-out, and another 3-and-out.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks who started slowly again had strung 4 straight drives together where they pulled points - all 24 that they scored in the game - on the final 2 drives of the 1st half: touchdown, touchdown - and the first 2 drives of the 2nd half: field goal, touchdown.
New England took the ball, down 24-14, with 12:10 to play and needing to score to keep hope alive.  This is where Brady might have won the MVP with a 3rd and 14 and a 3rd and 8 conversion in the same drive to Julian Edelman.  Edelman, a 7th round pick, was the target of the game for Brady and made difficult catches all night and then received a number of punishing blows for his trouble.  No team allows fewer 3rd and long conversions than Seattle, but Brady to Edelman saved the day on two such occasions before he hit Danny Amendola for a touchdown to cut it to 24-21 with 7:55 to go.
Seattle needed to retake control of the game, but instead held the ball for 63 seconds on a very quick 3-and-out where they were not given a clear pass interference as Ricardo Lockette was tripped by a falling Malcolm Butler who reached out to concede a flag over a disastrous play.  A few plays later, they punted it right back to New England with 6:52 left and down 3.
From there, the Patriots "death by a thousand paper cuts" offense started marching.  Tom Brady seldom throws the ball down the field anymore and seldom is aided by a running game.  Instead, it is 4-yard pass after 5-yard pass all the way down the field, which requires patience and precision, but also is the perfect way to counter a big time secondary as one is hard pressed to remember an impactful moment from Earl Thomas or Richard Sherman in the game.
The 10-play drive that ensued included 8 passes with four to the running back Shane Vareen (the 2nd most famous Cal Bears RB in the Super Bowl) and only a few throws down the field to Rob Gronkowski who came alive to convert a couple 2nd and long situations.  The entire drive never got to 3rd Down and seemed to discard the idea that the Seahawks were a defense that could not be taken down by a strong offense.  They had stumbled in the NFC Championship Game and survived.  But, this time, when they needed a stand, Brady and the Patriots put two straight 4th Quarter drives in the end zone.
But, 2:02 was plenty of time for a Seattle team that knows a little something about late game heroics as well.  Wilson on a swing pass beauty to Marshawn Lynch gets them quickly to the New England 49 at the 2-minute warning.  Then, a clutch 3rd and 10 conversion to Lockette for 11 yards gets a fresh set of downs.
From there, Wilson looks to go back after Malcolm Butler, the undrafted rookie corner from West Alabama.  The Patriots had been running man coverage the whole night, and that means that Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner would be on the outside, but in the slot against Jermaine Kearse would be Butler.  Seattle ran him on an "out and up" and Wilson put the ball up where he could win against this rookie free agent.  The ball bounced off the arms, down to the legs and back into the arms of Kearse.  He tried to get up and put it in the end zone, but Butler pushed him out of bounds.  It was amazing and Tyree-like all at once.
Now, 1st and goal from the 5 meant "Beast mode" to the 1 as Marshawn Lynch was ready to win the game with 1:01 to go.  Inexplicably, the Patriots don't start to kill the clock as they have two timeouts and elect not to use them.  I believe that without the ensuing moment, Belichick surely gets ripped up for that odd decision that seems to have no upside whatsoever.  Yet, it will not be remembered.
0:26 to go.  2nd and goal from the 1.  Seattle still with a timeout.  What is the call with Marshawn Lynch ready and the Patriots with only 3 corners and no safeties in the game?  The Patriots seemed to be daring the Seahawks to throw and with 11 personnel seeing no safeties, you can understand why they might try it.  But, that means not trusting Lynch and that OL to get a yard with 3 cracks.  We don't know what might have happened.  We only know what did.
What happened next was Wilson seeing Butler again in man coverage.  He had success going after him and why not attack the undrafted rookie corner with a slant underneath a pick from Kearse on Browner, knowing Butler would have to get through the traffic to beat Lockette to the goal-line?  If you watch the play 25 times, you still wonder how Butler beat the receiver to the throw.  Lockette was blamed for not winning the slant as the first rule of slant running is not to let a corner inside your lead shoulder.  A throw to the outside shoulder would also have prevented this moment.  But, in the end, Wilson picked on the rookie one too many times and Butler not only prevented the touchdown but caught the ball in one of the most dramatic interceptions in football history.
The play call was poor.  The throw wasn't great.  The route could have been better.  And Seattle dies in excruciating fashion on the goal-line of another Super Bowl championship.
Poetic justice, I suppose, as the NFC race has been this way all month.  Detroit deserved a better fate against Dallas (they will claim).  Dallas deserved a better fate against Green Bay (they will claim).  Green Bay will deserve a better fate against Seattle (they will claim).  And now, Seattle has some great stories about how they deserved better in Super Bowl 49.  Unfortunately, "deserved" has nothing to do with it.
What happens is what matters.  New England won a game they could have lost.  Seattle lost a game they could have won.  History books will be written and the Patriots will receive the spoils.  We could call them lucky, but they would have plenty to say about luck giving them a tough decade with their Super Bowl losses in 42 and 46 coming quickly to mind.
Regardless, the Super Bowl and the playoffs were filled with high drama and unforgettable moments for us to enjoy for the next 8 months.  One team's season ends with a parade, the other 31 try to figure out how to get - in some cases - that last yard.
There is no sport like football.  And no better example of the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat than the playoffs.  Legacies intersect between all-time legends like Brady who had his place in history cemented and undrafted rookies like Butler who were working at Popeye's Chicken not long ago.  The Patriots don't win without both of them stepping up at their moments of truth and being reliant on all men on the roster and the coaches to do their job and hope for a smile from lady luck along the way.
NFL, we are going to miss you this spring.  But, what a show along the way.


Offseason Digest - Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State - Super Bowl Pick



Time for a quick Super Bowl prediction which will greatly impact my 14th annual NFL Franchise Rankings Post that is due out next week.  If you have no idea what that means, you can read the 13th version from last spring here.
Anyway, having been in Phoenix all week, it has given me plenty of time to ponder and imagine what we might see on Sunday afternoon in Glendale when the Seahawks and Patriots square off.
It has also shown that the best way to win a Super Bowl in today's NFL is not this narrative that has been prevalent in the media over the last decade of just having some magical Cinderella run.  I recognize that when a low seed makes a Super Bowl run, it makes us think that everything is random and unpredictable, but if you simply look at who the heavyweights have been in the NFL in this last decade, it is rather consistent.
New England has the most wins of this decade, regardless of whether you measure the last 10 years or if you measure from 2010-.  They have a streak back to 2003 of 10 wins or more every single season.  That is beyond absurd in today's era for excellence.
Meanwhile, since 2010, Seattle has the 4th most wins of the decade, with 57.  They trail only New England (69), Green Bay (62), and Baltimore (59) for wins in the first 5 seasons of our decade.  Yes, somehow the Giants (45) won a Super Bowl 3 years ago from out of nowhere, but otherwise, the teams that play in this game or hold the Lombardi Trophy in the end do so because they are in this mix just about every year.  If we all believe that there is a 4-5 year sliding window for your "chance", then you get in that 10-win mix and hope that things break right for you once or twice.
The repeat is a different story.  We haven't seen a repeat since New England in 2003 and 2004.  In fact, Super Bowl Champions don't even win playoff games in the last 10 years.  So, for Seattle to now be on the brink of a back-to-back speaks to their excellence and the team concept of football that we all enjoy so much.  Do they have the best player in football?  No way.  Do they have a Top 5 player in football?  Top 10?  We can debate where Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman belong.  But the point is that this is a team built through the draft and a coach that knows what he wants and how to get there.  It is very impressive to witness.
Additionally, Pete Carroll is facing off with his old employer.  Surely, this is not like Cleveland discarding Bill Belichick before his prime, as they have done pretty well without Carroll.  But, the former Patriots coach who was replaced by Belichick back in 2000 has pretty much done nothing but win at both USC and Seattle since he was thrown out by the Patriots after the 1999 season.  Sometimes you just need to grow into your job before you fully realize your potential (Jason Garrett?).
So how do I see this game turning out?  Well, according to my preseason predictions, I have the Saints beating the Broncos.  Which is another way of saying that what makes this game great is that no matter how hard you study it, it cannot be predicted.
That said, I have the Patriots winning this one, 27-23.  I think the Seahawks are a fantastic team, but the Packers showed a similar QB in Tom Brady some of the way to attack the Seahawks defense and that defense - as good as it is - is nothing compared to the team that won the Super Bowl last year.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks offense is all predicated on the ability to design opportunities for Russell Wilson to make great things happen, and I count on the defensive mind of Belichick to have some surprises (and 2 excellent corners) to quiet a Seattle offense that lacks electric playmakers.
So, give me New England to get back to the throne, to the disdain of all of those who hope for their failure given the headlines of the last few weeks.
Should be a tremendous game.
TODAY'S DRAFT PROFILE:
(Each issue of S.O.D., we shall tackle another draft prospect.  No, I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football.  By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better.  It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.)
Find all the profiles here.
Florida State defensive tackle Eddie Goldman (90) celebrates after Florida place kicker Austin Hardin (16) missed a field goal attempt during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game in Tallahassee, Fla., Saturday, Nov. 29, 2014. Florida State won 24-19. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State - 6'4, 320 - Junior
With almost all of the premium defensive linemen now profiled, let's move on to the 11th player on our list (if you wish to look at all of them, check out this link).  Goldman is part of a Florida State team that tried to defend its national title in 2013 and came close before bowing out to Oregon in Pasadena on New Year's Day.  He is a strong, prototypical defensive tackle that took over full time duty with the drafting of Timmy Jernigan (Baltimore Ravens) last spring in this same process.  In his high school recruiting class of 2011, he was the 2nd ranked defensive linemen in the country, behind Mario Edwards, who also has lined up next to him for the Seminoles the last several years.  He played 3 years at Florida State before declaring for the draft this month and amassed 4 sacks and 8 tackles for loss in 2014. I watched the games versus Louisville, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Oregon to review his work.
What I liked: With Jernigan's review in my memory from last draft season, I can compare the two by saying they share a trait of being stout in the middle and standing his ground quite well against the run.  What makes Goldman a much better prospect for me than Jernigan is the way that Goldman is able to get upfield and make things happen behind the line of scrimmage.  He possesses a real push on his pass rush and can get north to collapse the pocket from the middle.  He is very good with his arms and hands in that when he is able to get them on the chest of his blocker, he is able to easily control them with his strength and move them where he wishes.  He is very good with leverage and with  a body that is built for this position is a load to deal with all afternoon.  Which leads me to maybe his most appealing attribute from a Dallas standpoint, which is his battle.  I really liked his motor in these games both from a consistency level and from a standpoint of not giving up on any play.  He fights and moves as a play develops and stays after it which leads him into many opportunities because he is staying active and energetic.  He reminds me quite a bit of Nick Fairley.
What I did not like:  Like Jordan Phillips, it is fair to ask him why we did not see more devastating statistics than we did.  If the average top prospect at this position is making 20-25 explosive plays (Sacks + Tackles For Loss) in 2014, why is Goldman at 12?  There is a very deep rotation at Florida State that kept his snaps down and energy up, but still, you would prefer to have more than 1 play a game that gets recorded.  I would say that Goldman was on the scene a lot and drawing all sorts of opportunities for his mates, as well, but that is a question.  Also, it would be nice if he was a bit more difficult to move when he gets double teamed, but now we are nitpicking.  He is not moving when single-blocked very often.
Summary:  He is very young and medically fit.  He has high energy and is ready to compete in all situations and he has some real gifts as a 1-gap penetrator and a middle patrolman that makes him a very appealing option at DT if he were to be available at the pick.  You are looking for someone with a full skill set, room to grow, and a fire in his belly to make a difference and I think I see all of that with Eddie Goldman.  He is absolutely a 1st round caliber football player that would answer a lot of concerns in the middle if he were available.
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Today's Email/Tweet Of The Day:
There is never a shortage of DeMarco Murray emails every day as this thing continues to boil up as the issue of the offseason.  It seems highly unlikely that Dez is going to get away as that just doesn't seem possible with the franchise tag leverage.  Nobody knows how he will handle that if it comes to that, but at least with Dez Bryant, it comes down to the idea that he either plays for Dallas in 2015 or he doesn't play anywhere (Holdout).
With Murray, it seems a real possibility that by spring break Murray could be signing in a another port.  That would disappoint many of us who think he is a vital cog in the wheel, but realities do suggest that there are many more reasonable replacements for Murray than for Dez.  In fact, the drop-off from Dez to whoever they come up with as the new Dallas #1 WR (internally, free agency, or draft) would be significant.
But, the drop-off from Murray to one of the many vets or rookies on the market seems like it would hurt, but not destroy what the Cowboys like to do.  So, allow me to answer Carl's question.  Was Murray's 2014 a fluke?
Well, the very nature of the term suggests some seasons we have seen in sports which are simply above their normal ability and unsustainable in the sample size.  Honestly, I don't think he was "hot" or "in the zone".  Most everything he did was repeatable and sustainable in its design and execution.  There is nothing complex about a zone stretch play to the outside, but rather the Cowboys have assembled a unit that carries it out very well.
Now, nobody is going to guarantee health - especially for a player who gives and receives hits constantly - but, given his health and those up front, there is no reason the Cowboys shouldn't be a Top 5 rushing team in 2015, too.  1800 yards?  Who knows?  but, remember, Murray won the rushing title by almost 500 yards.  A top 5 rusher was someone who had over 1,250 yards in 2014.  He could regress by 600 yards and still do that.  And if he is Top 5 in the NFL in rushing, he deserves his money.
So, to answer your question, I have complete confidence that he could be a 1,300 yard rusher for the next few years barring some health concern that every RB in football is subject to.  In other words, I don't think he "lucked" into his year and therefore is a major regression candidate.
Next Draft Profile:  Vic Beasley, DE, Clemson

Monday, January 19, 2015

Offseason Digest #1 - Randy Gregory, Championship Sunday


Given that this is my first offseason back with the Dallas Morning News, we (the DMN bosses and myself) may have to figure out exactly how we want this to print in the offseason.  But, the object of the next 4 months will be to walk you through the Dallas Cowboys offseason - along with many of their foes - from a NFL Draft and NFL Free Agency standpoint.
This includes examining players carefully by using their game tape to give you a fresh set of eyes perspective on each guy and how they may fit with the Cowboys (or if they fit with them at all).  The plan is to try to get at least a thumb nail sketch of any Top 100 prospect in the draft, and dig a little deeper on the Top 50 guys.  Meanwhile, in this spot - in the Offseason Digest (Or S.O.D), we will also try to answer your queries about anything Cowboys-related and of course, handle the day to day news, salary cap situations, and free agency issues that will abound all through the year.  Usually, by the end of May, things quiet down until training camp, but we will play this by ear.  If all goes well, you can expect one of these (length will vary) 3-5 times per week.
So, here we go with today's 3 distinctly different topics:
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CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND RECAP
Well, if misery loves company, Green Bay's exit from the playoffs will make Dallas fans feel much better about what the last week has dealt them.  Look at the symmetry of it all.  In the Wildcard round, Detroit feels they outplayed the Cowboys and that Dallas required a series of events to all go in the Cowboys' favor or the Lions would have advanced, right?  Well, Dallas thought that was ridiculous and advanced.
Then in the Divisional Round, Dallas feels they outplayed the Packers and that Green Bay required a series of events to all go in the Packers' favor or the Cowboys would have advanced, right?  Well, Green Bay thought that was ridiculous and advanced.
Now, the day after the NFC Championship Game, it appears that Green Bay feels they outplayed the Seahawks and that Seattle required a series of events to all go in the Seahawks' favor or the Packers would be in Super Bowl 49.  Well, guess what, Seattle thinks that it is a 60-minute game and has labeled those claims as ridiculous and will march on to the Super Bowl.
Man, Detroit will have a score to settle with Dallas, while Dallas can't wait to get back at Green Bay, and now, the Packers look forward to a rematch with Seattle.  No wonder the NFL TV ratings are so healthy.
In the history of the NFL Playoffs, a team that won the turnover margin by a +3 or more in one of these games is a pretty solid 157-11.  That 94% win rate for that trend matches up nicely with the win probability of a team - like Green Bay yesterday that was up 19-7, had the ball after a Morgan Burnett interception at midfield after he had given himself up rather than attempt a Super Bowl-sealing return.  One can only imagine he thought that A) the Super Bowl was already sealed and B) visions of DeMarcus Lawrence fumbling a return to give the opponent new life were dancing in his head.
The Seahawks pulled off a Fake Field Goal for a Touchdown, an onside kick recovery, and a 2-point conversion that might be the most ridiculous single play in a playoff game since the David Tyree catch in Super Bowl 42.  Russell Wilson, who is quickly getting a reputation of a guy who just will not lose, was sitting a QB rating of 0.0 at the half and still managed to win with a beautiful throw to Jermaine Kearse in Overtime.  It was the 2nd
playoff game (Edit 11:22am: Championship Game or later) to end on a Touchdown in NFL History, joining the 1958 NFL Championship Game Classic between the Colts and the Giants (Alan Ameche!).
Green Bay lost a game that they could not have asked to go more in their favor for about 55 minutes.  There will be books written about how they lost that game and it will be referenced for decades.  A historic collapse of epic proportions that certainly will help define perceptions about Mike McCarthy and his squad.
So with that and an unremarkable AFC Championship Game where the Patriots destroyed the Colts, we are now at Super Bowl 49 with the Seahawks and Patriots, or as some will no doubt point out, the Pete Carroll Bowl.  Carroll, of course, is the last man to coach the New England Patriots before Bill Belichick.  Now, they meet on the biggest stage with 2 teams claiming this era to be theirs.
Here is a look at the playoff success rate of the home teams and the #1 seeds since the NFL adopted this Playoff format in 1990.  The 2 columns on the right are the match-ups in the AFC and NFC Championship Games by Seed:
YearHome RecordAFC Champ SeedsNFC Champ Seeds
19908-21* vs 21 vs 2**
19918-21* vs 21** vs 2
19925-52 vs 4*1 vs 2**
19938-21* vs 31** vs 2
19948-21 vs 2*1** vs 2
19957-32* vs 51** vs 3
19968-22* vs 51** vs 2
19976-42 vs 4**1 vs 2*
19988-21** vs 21 vs 2*
19997-31 vs 4*1** vs 2
20008-22 vs 4**1* vs 2
20017-31 vs 2**1* vs 3
20028-21* vs 21 vs 2**
20036-41** vs 31 vs 3*
20046-41 vs 2**1* vs 2
20054-62 vs 6**1* vs 5
20068-23** vs 41* vs 2
20075-51* vs 32 vs 5**
20085-52** vs 64* vs 6
20097-31* vs 51** vs 2
20104-62* vs 62 vs 6**
20118-21* vs 22 vs 4**
20126-42 vs 4**1 vs 2*
20136-41* vs 21** vs 5
20148-21* vs 31* vs 2
(** = Super Bowl Champion, * = Super Bowl Loser)
As you can see, the #1 seed is massive.  That is why Green Bay (and to a lesser extent Dallas) will always remember December 14th, the day Green Bay lost to Buffalo as the day the seeding turned upside down.
If Green Bay had won that game, they would have been the #1 seed in the NFC at 13-3.  Dallas would then have been #2 by virtue of their head-to-head tie breaker at 12-4 with Seattle.  So, Seattle plays Detroit on Wild Card Weekend, while Dallas had a bye.  Then, Dallas would have hosted Seattle last week (perhaps), and the NFC Championship Game could have likely been Dallas at Green Bay.  Then that Dez Bryant play might have been for the Super Bowl and surely, the Dallas indigestion would have been even worse.
All thanks to Buffalo, the road went through Seattle, and despite the Seahawks playing their worst game, they still advanced.
The other thing that pops in your head is that these teams are not that far apart.  Detroit is not much worse than Dallas.  Dallas is no worse than Green Bay.  Green Bay may not be worse than Seattle.  The margins are close and you might need a call or a home field advantage to split the two teams up.  In other words, you need to be good to get into the playoffs, but then it is often the flip of a coin.  As Al Pacino famously said, "The inches are all around us, and when you add up all those inches, that is what makes the difference between winning and losing."  Mere inches.
You cannot beat the NFL Playoffs.
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DRAFT PROFILE:
(Each issue of S.O.D., we shall tackle another draft prospect.  No, I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football.  By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better.  It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.)
Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska - 6'6, 240 - Age 22
One of the first rules of draft evaluations is to avoid mock drafts and rankings as to not just go through an exercise of confirmation bias.  We want to assume nothing about these guys and just let our eyes be our guide.  That said, anyone who watches college football knows that Gregory has been at the top of the lists all year long.  He is a very impressive specimen.  I watched the USC, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Miami games.
What I liked:  He is clearly a sight to behold with very long arms and a slender build that makes you think Aldon Smith as a possibility on the edge just ruining plays.  He can be a very active pass rush guy and when he sees something in front of him, he has this explosive gear that is uncommon.  They also try to move him around and he can either stand or put his hand down and has some Clay Matthews explosion and versatility from all sorts of spots.  Some games he looks like he can get off the ball quick, but others he is the last guy out of his stance.  On his game, he attacks in a blur. He is clearly far more a tools prospect than a finished product and unfortunately, his 2013 was more productive than his 2014 in almost every category.  Against the run, he can get to the sideline with a runner and keep contain.  That speaks to his future as a LB or a very athletic pass rush DE.  His best attribute might be his swim moves.  Very solid.  He is active on pass rush and he plays faster if he can smell the ball.  He is great using his hands on a tackle to gain an edge.
What I did not like:  I really look for a high motor in my front 7 defensive players as I know Rod Marinelli wants that badly.  We will trade motor for ability to a certain point, but for the most part, I need a guy that is always chasing.  I did not see that consistently from Gregory.  Some weeks, every play looked important.  Other weeks, it did not.  I am not sure what his true position is because as a 4-3 defensive end, he is not strong enough for me.  His weight is a red flag (too light), but I have seen guys make that weight work because they are quite strong.  He is slender and is not winning much on leverage or power, so I think he has to be an outside LB on a 3-4, most likely.  His pass rush moves seem awfully under-developed and raw.
Summary: There is no doubt he has off-the-charts upside and rare physical traits that the NFL loves to value.  I don't think he is a scheme fit in Dallas and while he might be a guy who develops into a monster, I am looking for a bit more polish for my projected Top 5 picks, usually.  I like him, but I sure expected more.  The Miami game was fantastic, but his final game - the Bowl game against USC was not very impressive as a whole.
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Today's Email/Tweet Of The Day:
Well, Stag, this one is interesting.  So, all things are equal, and the Cowboys have the 27th pick and I can go get a solid player at any spot I want.  Ok, under those parameters, let's make a mental list.  It is our biggest asset of the offseason, so we better not be too flippant about how we spend it.
Options:
Running back - if I allow DeMarco Murray to go, can I get Melvin Gordon there?  Tempting.
Right Tackle - Do I keep adding to the offensive line and replace Free/Parnell?
Defensive Tackle - What would a stud next to Tyrone Crawford look like inside?
Defensive End - Can I find a long-term DeMarcus Lawrence bookend with 10 sack range?
Cornerback - Do I keep adding to a secondary and allow myself to move on from Carr?
Safety - Do I finally invest in a centerfield prospect who can make QBs pay downfield?
Those are my options and they all are worth considering.  As we sit here on the eve of Senior Bowl week, I would rank them from most preferred to least preferred:  DE, S, DT, CB, RB, RT.
I really want a power pass rusher at defensive end.  One who demands your attention and double teams or he gets to your QB.  The issue is that those "can't miss" edge rushers are usually long gone before #27.
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TOMORROW:
On Tuesday, we get cracking on the Senior Bowl and look at Missouri DE Shane Ray.

Friday, January 16, 2015

Xs and Os - Playoffs - Green Bay


Late in the week, we finally get a chance to "look at the tape" as Jason Garrett likes to say and examine some plays that we cannot fully digest on TV. I can't promise that every week we will be able to do this, but honestly, this is my favorite exercise of the week because only here can you fully appreciate how advanced and complex the NFL game can be sometimes.
Here, we are not looking to call anyone out, and we surely want to leave open the possibility of our eyes deceiving us and more than anything, I want to admit that I don't have the benefit of the coaches telling me what coverage they were in. So, sometimes, this diagnosis will be "pretty sure" rather than "100% sure" even though I am trying to get it right. I will make calls and try to hunt down the right answer, but I will just admit right here that we will try our best to be accurate but invariably, I will see something wrong.
But, let's pick plays that are interesting but not played out by this point of the week and have some fun talking Xs and Os. Feel free to tweet me @SportsSturm when a game shows you a play that you would like broken down and I will attempt to include it in this post.
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I realize that this week is the end of the road, and therefore the mourning process of a great season snuffed out is handled differently by everyone.  Some are already tired of discussing Sunday and others are certainly tired of hearing about certain plays.
Today is to serve a more historical purpose as well.  Usually, Xs and Os is about learning and investigating a few talking points.  This one, however, is to also create a bit of a historical record to reference when we talk about these plays in the future.  Next summer, when the details get fuzzy about what specifically happened, I wanted something for you to come back to that was written why the facts were still fresh.  All week I have picked a few plays here and there, but these are the biggest 3 and the last 3 "big plays" of the game in my opinion.
They are: the kickoff return fumble (maybe the biggest play of the game), the Rodgers TD to finally put Green Bay ahead in the 4th Quarter after trailing all day, and 4th and 2.
Let's get started.
Play #1 - 3Q/4:04 - Bailey kickoff to Cobb, fumble, recovered by Quarless.
Pretty standard kickoff and return in a game that just went to 21-13 as the Cowboys win probability was back up to a solid-as-a-rock 78% at this point.  If they would have been able to fall on this moment in time, it likely goes about 90% as more points and more time off the clock makes it 24-13 or 28-13 with a quarter to play.  Not impossible for Green Bay, but not bloody likely.
Here are the 5 principle figures in our story.  CJ Spillman is the L2, James Hanna the L1, and Tyler Patmon is the R5.  It should also be noted that Lance Dunbar (who gets held on the play and it is called) is the R4.  You might want to watch the chaos several times.  81-Quarless somehow goes all the way over to Patmon and then ends up with the ball after clearly holding Patmon at least twice.
The exercise here, of course, is to figure out how the Cowboys did not get that ball.  We have the play from about 5 angles and still have no idea how Hanna and Patmon can have the ball between them and it gets away.
This frame in particular:
At this moment, Quarrels has Patmon around the waist and is behind him and is still going to come up with the ball at the bottom of the pile.  We have no idea how this happens, but such is the way the NFL still determines fumble recoveries in scrums.
Play #2 - 4Q/9:15 - 1/10/14 - Rodgers rolls left, to Rodgers for Touchdown
We talked yesterday in the Marinelli Report that on Green Bay's last two big drives - both ending in touchdowns - they went with no RBs in the game.  It was nothing but empty backfields and Cobb as a decoy next to Rodgers.  Cobb underneath may not be Darren Sproles, but he isn't far off, so the stress that this causes is immense to the LBs trying to lasso him as the ball keeps marching down the field.   Above are the approximate routes the receivers will run, and the Cowboys are now going to zone it up with 7 guys and hope for pressure from the rush.
The Cowboys are dropping into that Seattle Cover 3, with the corners funneling everything inside, 4 defenders across the 5 yard line, and JJ Wilcox patrolling CF with his best Earl Thomas impersonation.  This is the moment in the play where the ball has to get out of there under normal circumstances as the pocket is getting smaller and smaller.
Jeff Heath (playing the role of Kam Chancellor, has joined the linebackers to play the outside in this 4-3, and 81-Quarless will run an out.  This also draws 26-Moore to step up. Whether that is Aaron Rodgers plan (with his eyes and body) to open a window behind them is open to debate.  Rodgers would later say that 89-Rodgers (also a Cal Bear) was his 5th read on the play.
Now, the frame where the ball leaves Rodgers hand.  To me, this is not his best decision on 1st and 10.  I imagine the coaches up there trust his judgement, but there is a very small window to make this throw as Wilcox and Moore converge and just miss the ball.  A throw to Quarless to the sideline would almost certainly set up 1st and goal.  Because it is 1st and 10, we would call that an unnecessary risk, but I am sure Aaron Rodgers is not very concerned with what we think.
And the end zone view below that shows the multiple reads and the tight window.

Barely squeaked it in there.  That is the margin for error in this league.  Notice DeMarcus Lawrence gets a hand on Rodgers, but the LT pushes him on by.
Play #3 - 4Q/4:34 - 4/2/33 - Romo to Bryant, Reversed to Incompletion
Everything that could be said about this play has been said.  In fact, here is what I said on Monday:
The pass was perfect.  The catch was absurd.  The play was one for the ages.  And yet, upon further review, it did not stand as the officials determined the ball hit the ground before it was completely secured.  I disagreed with the rule for Calvin Johnson years ago and I disagreed with the ruling yesterday.  It was a catch for me as his reach for the goal-line seemed like a football move if there ever was one.  At worst, it should have been 1st and goal from the 1 and the likelihood of a touchdown and a Cowboys lead seemed pretty automatic.
And then, my critique of alternate ideas about this play on Wednesday in the Decoding Linehan piece:
That is why on 4th and 2, that fateful play where Romo goes to Bryant, I understand the logic of taking a chance with your best receiver on 1-on-1 coverage.  But, man, you have to know that a fade or go route on a day like Sunday where no downfield completions of 20+ yards in the air were happening for either QB, that the percentages argued that you move the chains with something short.  Now, Green Bay knew that, too.  And they were taking away Jason Witten, but Cole Beasley underneath is uncovered when his corner blitzes against a Cover 0 where if Beasley catches it, he may go all the way.
It is a matter of probabilities.  If no passes have been completed downfield by either team all day, on 4th and 2, that is taking a real chance.  It is a shot from deep behind the 3-point line when a lay-up may be available.  I am not saying they can’t complete it (they did!), but we just need to know the best chances of extending the game might be elsewhere.
Regardless, Romo did what he did and made the play look easy:
It is an interesting conversation about throwing it to Dez.  You do it because he is in man to man with no safety help and he has destroyed that all season long.
But, Green Bay would never leave him in man unless it was 4th down.  They really didn't all day long.  They assume on this one play that you wouldn't dare.  In fact, they might be willing to bait you into doing it.  Why would Dom Capers do one thing all day and then change his mind on the most important play?
They blitzed 29-Hayward leaving Beasley open at the sticks, but as many of you have pointed out, we cannot just assume that this is automatic.  For all we know, Julius Peppers deflects it.  It looks like an easy conversion to me, and the right one, but we are all just guessing.  The Packers are not going to let Jason Witten catch it.  They have 2 guys on him and are blitzing.  They are trying to make Romo do something he doesn't want to do, and he refuses to give in.
It is a shame to see the best moment of 2 competitors careers to not count.  A real shame.
So, why would Romo risk it all on a pass to Dez Bryant?  Because he has done it over and over this year and Dez has never let him down.
Week 7 versus the Giants - Does this play look familiar?  No safety help?  Touchdown.  Reach for the goal-line even.  It looks like a replay.  
Week 8 versus Washington.  No help.  Dez dives for the goal-line.
Week 15 at Philadelphia.  No safety there in time.  Dead.
So there you go.  You can see that Dez is either double-teamed or he is in your end zone. Xs and Os for another season - in the books.  Hope you enjoyed these.