Decoding Linehan - Week 14 - Giants

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Tom Fox/Staff Photographer

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) throws a first half pass against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, Sunday, December 10, 2017. (Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News)

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

Decoding Linehan

It seems like during this past month or so, it has been in fashion to pick apart young Dak Prescott to identify how he is not the best quarterback you have ever seen. It was once fashionable to wonder if he is the next franchise quarterback, but with the worst three-week span of offensive play in memory, the questions of his future were increasing along with those waxing nostalgic for a time when Tony Romo could sit in a kitchen chair without his back locking up.

 

It is true, by the way. There are some things Prescott cannot do like Romo could. There are some things Prescott cannot do that Troy Aikman could. Or Roger Staubach. But perhaps we could concede that no two players are exactly alike, and that there are probably things Prescott can do that Romo absolutely could not.

And maybe there is more than one way to skin a cat, too.

On Sunday, Prescott killed the blitz of the New York Giants. He did it so much that people were wondering why the Giants would continue to do something that was damaging their situation so badly. That doesn't happen much against young quarterbacks -- blitzes failing so badly that the defensive coordinator comes under fire for not realizing he is being taken advantage of by the kid -- but that is what happened Sunday.

The Giants would blitz, then Prescott would find the correct hot read and destroy him. It wasn't that hard, partly because the Giants do not have one-on-one personnel that can handle their business these days, and partly because Prescott nearly had a perfect day from a mental standpoint.

He has had a near-perfect season. Would you believe that since they installed this statistic in 1991, this is nearly the best season in Cowboys history?

According to our friends at STATS, the 2017 version of Prescott is exceeded only by the best year of Romo's career. And, for that matter, considering that we are talking about 27 different seasons of Cowboys quarterbacks -- many of them run by Aikman and Romo -- Prescott has already registered two of the top four in the first two seasons of his career. Based on the fact it took Romo until the 2014 season to fully master the blitz, would it be OK to give Prescott credit for this?

It would seem in this NFL world that this is a rather important component. Prescott destroyed the Giants' blitz on Sunday and, by the looks of it -- as he sits as the career leader against the blitz with a passer rating of 105.0 (Romo at 90.0, Aikman at 86.2, Drew Bledsoe at 83.9 at and Quincy Carter at 62.6 are the four other Cowboys quarterbacks with 200-plus throws against the blitz in their careers) -- he has done this since Week 1 of Year 1 as a Cowboy.

You may remember Bill Parcells once telling Romo a paraphrase of this: "Someday, you will want them to blitz you because that is when you will get those big plays."

It appears that Prescott -- whether you know it or not -- is already at a level of performance where his numbers indicate he has a mental acuity that is very, very good.

I would argue it goes back to his calmness. That reminds me of another Parcells-ism from his quarterback rules that were posted on the locker of Romo once upon a time:

"Don't panic -- when all around you is chaos, you must be the hand that steers the ship. If you have a panic button, so will everyone else. Our ship can't have panic buttons."

The Cowboys were in a real fight Sunday, but the quarterback's ability to kill the blitz was how Dallas won the game. And in a season when Prescott has been blamed for quite a bit, I think it is worthwhile for his critics to be informed of this attribute, where he seems to take a backseat to almost nobody who has ever worn the shirt. You will not blitz him continuously and find success.

WEEKLY DATA BOX

Sunday was the second-biggest yardage day of the year (at San Francisco was No. 1) and the biggest yardage day through the air. Another solid day on third down, and those yards per attempt at 11.1 is ridiculous. But they had three 50-yard passes to really inflate the production nicely. Also, average yards to go on third down was way down at 4.8, which is the second-best mark of the season (also behind the San Francisco road game). This is all good across the board, which is hard to believe since this was a 10-10 game midway through the fourth quarter.

DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART

The Cowboys took more shots Sunday and the receivers let their quarterback down, but overall, you will take that over the throws not being good enough. On a tough day, Prescott responded well and stuck with it. Then his receivers started making the plays, too.

PERSONNEL GROUPINGS

I really am interested in how 13 Personnel (one running back, three tight ends and one wide receiver) is more and more becoming the offense on early downs. They like the matchups. Below we will look at what it provides, because they ran some different variations of the set that are worth discussing.

Let's look at some tape:

A third-and-1 on the first drive of the game. The Giants roll out the Cover 0 blitz -- no safety available because you are blitzing Cole Beasley's guy, so Landon Collins has to roll downhill to get to him. I have no idea why you would try this on third and short, but the Giants are feeling lucky. I love that later the Cowboys will come back to this and are ready if the Giants try it again. Look at how easily Prescott sees this and how easily the third-down conversion is because, of course, Beasley needs just 36 inches to move the chains.

I am sure they said, "Next time, stay inbounds and make Collins catch you." It broke the game open.

Another third-and-short -- this time it is third and 3. Here, the Giants rush five, then drop a rat in the hole to sit on Jason Witten and Beasley underneath. So, Cover 1 -- Rat/Robber -- and this is where Prescott uses his escape to move the chains. Look at Rod Smith take out the blitzer. Beautiful stuff and fine awareness by Prescott. Also, notice the Beasley double-team. In-breaking routes always bring a second man on Beasley. He may not be helping your fantasy team, but he still is attracting a crowd.

Next play, 10:54 to go in the second quarter -- they are in 12 Personnel. They send Dez Bryant to pull a double-team to the post and slide James Hanna underneath on a rounded-off dig route. Prescott delivers a really nice throw, and they are marching.

As you can see, the Giants are blitzing, Alfred Morris has to pick up the guy off the edge and Prescott has to deliver a throw. This is when you got the feeling Prescott was trusting his arm Sunday. Burn another blitz and carry on.

Prescott's next throw is two snaps later. They're in 13 Personnel and have the Giants off balance here. Look at all of the traffic those three tight ends generate. Watch the congested middle, and then notice Bryant is one-on-one on the outside with a corner who is fresh off the practice squad -- No. 25, Brandon Dixon. There is nothing fancy here, as Bryant just runs right past him. The throw is fine and Bryant just drops it. Maybe he can't believe how open he is.

Bryant is having a frustrating season and wants to make dominating plays every week. Unfortunately, there have been a few plays he needs to make -- the touchdown against Green Bay, the throw down the sideline against Philadelphia and the pass here -- that have been 100 percent on him. He is much better than this, but this does demonstrate that when an offense goes south, there is blame to be shared by all parties.

Here is the very next play and Prescott again is playing very well. Look at this nice job of extending the play and then putting the throw right on Beasley to the sideline. But the sun makes the play for the Giants and the drive is killed. Two bad breaks end a really promising drive.

Full marks to Bryant for getting back on the horse. I am not sure why the Giants want to roll the bones again and blitz seven for another Cover 0, but the Cowboys are waiting. This is just too easy. Dixon is not tackling Bryant on a slant and if he misses high, it is over.

You can't miss high, sir. This will fail 10 out of 10 times. I blame the coaches for putting him in that spot, but he also should know who Bryant is. Walk-in touchdown.

But again, the score is just 10-10. Midway through the fourth. The Cowboys' past four drives have seen no blitzes and also have seen no points. But the Giants get antsy again.

Third and 2, 8:07 to play.

The Giants have been torched on each blitz they have tried. Not only do they blitz, but they send the house again? And they ask Collins to try to get to Beasley again? In space? I really wonder about the brain power of this Giants staff that made that call. Goodness gracious. The Cowboys were begging them to do something stupid, and they obliged. There is simply no chance Collins -- as awesome as he is -- can make this play.

The very next play, with no Collins on the field, the Cowboys roll out 13 Personnel again. They know the Giants are going to be watching Bryant -- remember the throw down the sideline on 13 that was dropped? -- so they have Witten run that seam route where he widens out his man to the sideline and then angles back in to gain leverage, leaving a spot for Prescott to drop a dime in there. He does, and this is a huge throw and touchdown to take the lead.

Finally, again, no Collins deep, the Giants' reserves are worried about Beasley and Bryant, which leaves a painfully slow backup linebacker on Smith in the open field. No blitz here, just a man trying to run with a man who is too fast with no help over the top. Intramural plays don't often work, but the Giants have nothing left for Smith, so this is a stat-padder for all involved.

Easy work, most against the blitz and some not. Prescott wins with his brain power and intelligence. If your strongest attributes are composure and intelligence, you can win with that.

Nice job against a reckless and undermanned Giants defense. Sound coaching would be to sit back and play conservatively when you don't have your guys. The Giants weren't doing that, and the Cowboys executed the plan wonderfully.

The Morning After: Cowboys 30, Giants 10 (7-6)

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Vernon Bryant/Staff Photographer

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Cole Beasley (11) passes by New York Giants strong safety Landon Collins (21) during a 54 yard reception during the second half of play at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Sunday, December 10, 2017. Dallas Cowboys defeated the New York Giants 30-10. (Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News)

By Bob Sturm, Special contributor Contact Bob Sturmon Twitter:@SportsSturm

The Morning After

For roughly two hours and 35 minutes Sunday, the Cowboys and Giants played an incredibly tedious affair that would be easy to forget. Two teams that didn't care for each other, unfortunately, had no idea how to get out of their own ways, let alone take a rival down in front of an incredibly unimpressed stadium half full of Giants enthusiasts.

It was a very difficult game to watch and at 10-10, we had just watched a forgettable stretch of the game where 10 consecutive series resulted in a combined nine punts and one missed field goal. It was brutal for both offenses. At least the Giants appeared to be securing their very high draft pick and seemed happy to achieve yet another loss. For the Cowboys, clinging to their slight remaining playoff hopes, this was yet another disgusting day in which the offense could not get to where it wanted to go with regularity.

This week, it appeared to be the fault of the receivers for much of the afternoon. Terrance Williams had a ball hit him in the face in the end zone on the first drive on what would have been a nice catch for a touchdown, but it was surely one that he expects to make. Dez Bryant dropped a simple slant on that same first drive and would come back in the second quarter and drop a huge gainer down the left sideline (possibly another touchdown) that also would go through his hands and hit him in the face mask. It was not his finest moment, and the complete shade he enjoyed on that route suggests he just flat-out missed it. The sun would claim a third down to Cole Beasley on the next play and the Cowboys' second-quarter drive ended with a missed field goal by Dan Bailey (oddly, not the one referenced in the paragraph above, but a totally different one on a very poor day for the best kicker in franchise history).

Things were not going very well, and now the Cowboys faced yet another third-down situation -- third and 2 from their own 26 -- when they had converted just one of their past six. This was a third-and-short, but that didn't stop Giants interim coach Steve Spagnuolo from dialing up a pretty aggressive blitz to try and cause a big play.

The Giants brought the house -- everyone they could send -- despite it looking like that was the one part of the game plan the Cowboys' offense had sorted out. If you will recall, last year, on the same exact weekend, the Cowboys visited the New York Giants on 10 days of rest in Week 14 and looked like they had never seen a blitz before. The Giants trashed the Cowboys 'entire offensive game plan, even with Ezekiel Elliott in top form, and humiliated the Cowboys in a decisive win that day.

Fifty-two weeks later, the Cowboys returned to the scene of that crime playing against a Giants team with about half of its roster that went to the playoffs last year. This has been a season of massive disappointment for those Giants, and it has resulted in the expected firings of both coach and general manager.

Yet their defensive coordinator from last year is now coaching the team, and it appeared he was convinced that last year's game plan was the one to dust off. That means, on third downs, he was going to rattle Dak Prescott with pressure -- sometimes with five while doubling the prime targets, other times with seven and simply overwhelming the Cowboys quarterback with rushers.

The trouble with that decision of his was this: He did not have the necessary cover guys to do what he chose to do. If you are going to put guys in space on a one-on-one basis to stop a receiver after the catch, he is going to have to be sure of his tackling ability. Yet, the three biggest plays of the game were all in these scenarios.

The biggest one was right before halftime from midfield, where the Cowboys could just not get anything going to that point on offense. But on a second-and-6, the Giants brought seven. That puts Brandon Dixon -- a guy who was brought up from the Giants' practice squad three weeks ago -- in a one-on-one situation with Dez Bryant on a slant route. Bryant catches the ball and then, with the strength of a receiver who doesn't often get brought down by the first man, swings Dixon off him and sprints to the end zone for a 50-yard touchdown. It was a fine job by Bryant, for sure, but it made you wonder why the Giants thought that was a good idea.

To be fair, the Giants blitzed seven different times Sunday. The results for the Cowboys? Five first downs and two touchdowns. In other words, the Giants blitzed seven times Sunday and lost on all seven plays.

The very first one was a lucky break for the Cowboys, as a five-man blitz resulted in Landon Collins batting a ball in the air and Rod Smith running under it to move the chains. OK, lucky bounce. But from there, the Cowboys moved the chains on a third-and-1 out to Beasley for 4 yards and a first down against seven-man pressure. A third-and-3 scramble from Prescott against a five-man blitz. Then, a 16-yard pass to James Hanna against five-man pressure, followed by 11 yards to Williams on a crosser against another five-man rush.

So by the time Bryant broke the Dixon tackle to give the Cowboys their first touchdown, the Giants were 0 for 6 on blitzes in the first half. Yet the score was 10-10, so they were right where they wanted to be in pretty much every other category.

From that Bryant touchdown before halftime until this third-and-2 midway through the fourth quarter, the Giants never brought an extra man and the Cowboys never put a drive together. The Giants were playing straight up against Alfred Morris and the normal Cowboys attack, and they were withstanding things very well.

Frustration was mounting and the Cowboys were not able to break the code at all, which is why I was so surprised the Giants and Spagnuolo decided to stick their hands back into the cookie jar again on this third-and-2 situation at 2:34 p.m. Central time.

This play from the Cowboys' 26 is a third-and-short, but the Giants are bringing seven again. And, just like the Bryant touchdown, they cut their own throats. Because they bring so many, the high safety, Collins, is being asked to chase Beasley (because Beasley's man is coming on the blitz). This makes some sense if Beasley is running a vertical, but as anyone who has ever watched a Cowboys game knows, he never runs verticals. Who on the Giants' coaching staff thought this was a good idea? There is no possible way Collins can close down Beasley from that far away, and if he doesn't, because they blitzed so many defenders, there may not be anyone else to tackle Beasley for a long, long time.

Fifty-four yards later, the game had changed dramatically.

This is the way football works. People want the one team to make "halftime adjustments" or something that brings solutions out of nothing, but it is often the opposition that gives you an opportunity, not anything different you call. If the Giants do not elect to blitz that one time in the second half -- despite six unsuccessful blitzes earlier in the game -- the opportunity may not be there and the Cowboys may continue to punt. We don't know why Spagnuolo was so reckless in the face of evidence, but that may be why 2-11 teams get to 2-11.

The opportunity was given, and Dallas took advantage. Again.

One play later, the Cowboys set the Giants up with 13 Personnel -- from where they always run or throw quick passes -- and sneaked Jason Witten down the seam, with Bryant distracting the defense underneath, for a touchdown.

It is 17-10, and the game would end on the next drive. Prescott converted yet another third down when Rod Smith was split out on the only "empty" play of the entire game and ran a slant underneath against a linebacker who also had no help (because the safety above him went to Bryant, hoping to sit on a slant route). Rod Smith against backup linebacker Kelvin Sheppard, who had just been brought back to the Giants after being waived by the Chicago Bears in September, was another one-on-one battle where if you don't tackle him, nobody will.

Eighty-one yards later, the Cowboys had found their big plays again. Three 50-yard passes would double the team's total in one afternoon. There had been a 53-yard pass to Brice Butler in Arizona, a 72-yard screen to Ezekiel Elliott in San Francisco and a 56-yard gain to Terrance Williams against the Chiefs. But it won't surprise anyone to know that those were the first huge gainers since Elliott's suspension began -- and to find all three on the same afternoon likely tells you as much about the state of the opponent as it does about the Cowboys' offensive issues being completely solved. But then again, let's not look gift horses in the mouth, please.

We don't know where the Cowboys go from here, but we do know they returned to the Giants' stadium 52 weeks later and clearly had a much different day on third downs:

Dec. 11, 2016 -- Prescott and the Cowboys go 1 for 15 on third down.

Dec. 10, 2017 -- Dallas slices up the Giants' blitz and goes 7 for 14 on third down.

If nothing else, it surely looked like a real fine grade on the mental testing of Prescott's ability to find the right place to go with the football if the Giants planned on rattling him. He wasn't going to let that happen and, as any mature quarterback would, he invited the blitz so he could burn the defense with its own attack.

It wasn't easy, but in the end, it was a pretty solid result for the young quarterback to bust out of a slump with a career-high day in passing yards (332) and three touchdowns.

On to the next one. This opponent was quite accommodating. We assume the next few will put up far more resistance.

Decoding Linehan - Green Bay Preview

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Tuesday and Wednesday, we are going to look at the Cowboys' matchups for Sunday's divisional playoff game against the Green Bay Packers and discuss what the Cowboys can do to reach the NFC Championship Game.  We review the matchup in Week 6, look at the current affairs of each side, and try to imagine some objectives for Scott Linehan and Rod Marinelli.  

I don't wish to spoil tomorrow's piece, but let's just say Linehan is going to have a much easier strategy session than Marinelli.  The defense is going to have to figure quite a few problems out that they will be presented with on Sunday.  But, the offense?  They just have to be themselves.

Dallas has one of the best offenses in the NFL, and if it continues to perform at those levels, there is no reason it cannot play in a Super Bowl in 3 weeks.  You could argue the Cowboys never played better than in this Week 6 battle in Green Bay, and you could also argue that this playoff game may resemble the Pittsburgh game in that both offenses were able to score at will - and therefore, the team with the ball last might be the one to win.  This game could have an NBA feel to it.  One stop might be enough to win the game.

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But, let's focus on Scott Linehan's situation here for a moment.  Some easy thoughts to start:

1) Green Bay is a high-risk defense.  They will concede a ton of yardage and not seem to care, because the overall philosophy for Dom Capers up there for several years is that yards are just numbers.  He is trying to find takeaways.  The best way to get takeaways are sacks and pressure.  And the best way to generate pressure is to leave your corners on islands.  This often leads to a lot of chances for the offense, and he is playing the odds that if you are going to drive the ball, you will at some point either get reckless with the ball or fail on a 3rd down.  The good news here is that the Cowboys were great in both regards this season.  They never turned the ball over and were quite efficient on 3rd downs.  The Cowboys were also able to chase the Packers out of their blitzes.

2) The Packers don't have the ability to man-up with their current corner personnel.  You could argue that their only healthy corner this year - LaDarius Gunter - was their 5th corner when the season began.  Sam Shields is their lead and makes $12 million a year.  He has played in 1 game.  Then, Damarious Randall and Quinton Rollins are their top draft picks from 2015 and both played in 10 games.  So, from a standpoint of their top 3 corners, they have lost 29 starts among them in just this season.  That leaves Gunter, Randall (back again), and Micah Hyde to play corner for them.  This is better than what it was in Week 6, but there are some significant matchup issues.

3) The Packers' pass rush was pretty good at times this season, but not now.  On paper, Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Mike Daniels, and Nick Perry looks scary.  But, Matthews will have surgery when the season ends on a shoulder that has been jacked up since their trip to Philadelphia in November, and he appears to be a shell of himself.  Nick Perry broke his hand and has had to play with a club on it, which has not helped his effectiveness.  Julius Peppers does have a few moments a game at his advanced age, but their pass rush is not going to overwhelm Dallas at all.  

4) Ezekiel Elliott ran all day against them in Week 6 and did not have Dez Bryant to affect the safeties.  It will be tempting for the Cowboys to look around at all of the inviting matchups, but they should not lose the plot.  Elliott and the running game should allow them to hold the ball and keep Aaron Rodgers on the sideline.  This is the easiest route to victory.  They need to plaster that all over the gameplan so they don't forget when the adrenaline starts pumping.  This should be a game to shoot for 40 minutes of possession time.  Yes, there are chances in the passing game.  But, you will want to fight the urge to go looking to take advantage of them, because your best opportunity is feeding Zeke.  

5) Cole Beasley is a massive mismatch.  I know most people will think Dez is your matchup issue, but I don't believe that in this game.  Gunter is very solid against physical receivers (even Julio Jones), but speed gives them fits as a group.  Micah Hyde inside against Beasley was a matchup that was very successful in Week 6.  The Packers have no better options in the slot and this should be even better on a fast track.  

Here was the damage Beasley did back on October 16th, thanks to another John Daigle chart.  He had 6 catches on 6 targets and 2 touchdowns of the 5 he had all year.

Cole Beasley Route Chart - Week 6

Let's look at a few: 

This first one was a quick hitter to beat a Green Bay blitz.  As you can see, Green Bay is chasing out a LB to try to deal with Brice Butler and Cole Beasley.  That goes quite poorly for Dom Capers.

So, this is Micah Hyde lining up in man against Beasley on the goal-line.  Asking him or just about any corner to handle this seems like a very poor job of tactics from Green Bay.  And, Dallas takes easy advantage of it.  They are in man because they need all of the manpower they have to deal with the goal-line runs of Elliott.

Here is 3rd and 8.  They know that the Packers are in 2-deep.  They know that the middle is open and that the Packers are man-up with Hyde on Beasley.  This is a massive mismatch for the Cowboys and look how easy they can convert this as Hyde can't handle the initial release.  

Again, 2-Deep, man under.  Beasley gets out on the WR screen and with a pulling Tyron taking out the middle LB who cannot run with Beasley anyway, this one is another big gainer up the sideline.  

Finally, the 4th-quarter kill shot that put this out of reach.  Play-action to hold them with the running game and then exposing an easy throw mismatch to the pylon.  This is Beasley versus Gunter which is basically a safety trying to run with Beasley in a phone booth.  Good luck.  

Now, as you can see, all of this is based off Green Bay trying to deal with the running game.  

Here is the staggering truth.  Since 2013, the Cowboys have played the Packers 4 times.  In each game, they ran all day and had no issues whatsoever.  They ran and ran and ran.  They have run the ball with this massive offensive line against the Packers and Dom Capers 99 times in 4 games and have rolled up an absurd 641 yards.

That comes out to 6.48 yards per carry.  Oh, and the Cowboys are 1-3 in those 4 games.  Now, we could argue whether or not there are mitigating circumstances that explain this, but the point remains that running the ball is key.  It is not the only key. 

That said, it is interesting that in Week 6, Elliott ran all day out of 12 and 13 personnel.  In fact, they ran out of 11 personnel on 9 occasions for 15 yards.  No, this was a day for big personnel, and the Cowboys were able to break some open in the 2nd half.  

This one is easy.  Up the middle and then bounce outside and beat the contain man to the corner and he is out of the gate.  There is very little a defense can do against this speed to the outside when they overcommit to the middle.  

Here is 12 personnel again.  We wonder how much of this changes without Geoff Swaim who was a big part of this day's production.  More 11 personnel on Sunday, we assume, which has been the Cowboys' best look for the 2nd half of the year.  

One more out of 12 personnel.  There is nothing at the 2nd level with the linebackers that should scare the Cowboys at all.  The Packers are built for finding big plays, not stopping long drives.

Check out the personnel groupings and chart from that game:

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

The Cowboys offense cannot fall behind.  It must start quickly, because a 10-0 Green Bay lead might change all sorts of things in the stadium.  It simply must take control early - as in Lambeau, because if it does, the boa constrictor that is the Dallas offense will begin to suffocate the Green Bay ideas.  

The offense must convert on 3rd downs and be careful with the football.  It is a delicate balance.

Garrett certainly wants to hold the ball and dominate the clock.  But, that means long drives.  And long drives require 3rd down precision and mistake-free football without penalties and turnovers.

The Cowboys have done it time and time again this season.  But, in the playoffs, none of that matters.  For reference, please check out the "Decoding Linehan" from after the first game, including the Dallas success against the Green Bay blitz.  There are plenty more videos to look at to prepare you for this.  

We have showed you some matchup advantages for Sunday and there are several.  But, in Dak Prescott's first playoff game, all eyes will be on him to see how this offense executes in these high pressure spots.  They know they can do it, they just need to actually do it.  

Linehan has some very interesting ideas and matchups that should work against an inferior defense from Green Bay.  Tomorrow, we look at Marinelli's decidedly more difficult task.